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Rupert Lowe isn’t very good at expectations management – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 28,080
    edited May 30

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see the BMG polling suggests my gut instinct on Burnham not being able to save the tarnished Labour brand...

    That said, interesting to hear from someone on the spot that Burnham being a 'carpetbagger' might not help.....

    On the BMG poll Reform would win most seats but Burnham could be PM with LD, SNP, PC and Green and MIN support and the BMG poll is the worst hypthetical poll for him,MiC and Deltapoll both have Labour winning most seats with Burnham their leader
    Lol, try keeping that coalition together.
    'Allies of Andy Burnham will form a new "council" of cross-party figures to discuss working together to stop a Reform UK government.

    The "council for the progressive majority" is being instigated by Compass, a centre-left thinktank whose founder Neal Lawson is an influential supporter of the Greater Manchester mayor.

    The council will be comprised of two leading figures from each of the progressive parties in the UK - Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

    Voters from these parties make up what Compass calls the "progressive majority" over the Conservatives and Reform and its previous incarnations.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/burnham-allies-plan-cross-party-council-to-stop-a-reform-uk-government-13549122
    The fecking Greens?

    Might as well invite the SWP.
    They’re having an event today.

    So I suspect this news is simply a plug.

    They have currently Gary Stevenson demanding wealth taxes. They also have a forum with the left wing Unison and NEU trades unions leaders later.

    This seems less about a so called progressive alliance and more lobbying for corbynite left policies.

    https://x.com/compassoffice/status/2060665756187038207?s=61
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,424
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    I wasn't really aware of More in Common's polling segments.
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/seven-segments/

    "Established Liberals" seems a slightly misleading name for a group only one in five of whom vote LibDem.
    But it clearly captures something:

    This doesn't surprise me, while Labour's vote is down across 6 of our 7 segments, Established Liberals - the most comfortable, optimistic, internationalist group - are an exception. Among ELs Labour's vote hasn't dropped at all and they likely dominate audiences places like Hay
    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2060414799675003116

    'Liberal' is one of those terms that can't be usefully used unless you know which of its many meanings is meant.

    I think the clue here is 'Established'. It refers to a group who are mostly older and therefore have an interesting past to remember, have a stake in civil society because they are fairly comfortably off, believe in liberalism not a political label but as a procedure for how society recognises and legislates for rights, duties, freedoms and obligations. They are probably Burkeans in believing that society is organic, not an artifice, and that the present has debts and obligations to the future especially, and also the past. They will mostly vote LD in LD strongholds but not mostly otherwise.

    I should think they make up the entire audience of most literary festivals and Radio 4.

    I am sure there is another word for what those films used to be called. It began with C, but it’s been so long since it is apposite that I have quite forgotten what it was
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,955
    edited May 30
    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    When I see all this over-hyping, I'm reminded of Brian Rose's 2021 and 2024 London Mayoral runs.

    Except there are two vital differences.
    Restore have an established local Party, therefore a ground game.
    And pollsters and canvassers are picking up a level of support. The size of it is in question, but it isn't negligible.
    Who on earth was he?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,428
    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see the BMG polling suggests my gut instinct on Burnham not being able to save the tarnished Labour brand...

    That said, interesting to hear from someone on the spot that Burnham being a 'carpetbagger' might not help.....

    On the BMG poll Reform would win most seats but Burnham could be PM with LD, SNP, PC and Green and MIN support and the BMG poll is the worst hypthetical poll for him,MiC and Deltapoll both have Labour winning most seats with Burnham their leader
    Lol, try keeping that coalition together.
    'Allies of Andy Burnham will form a new "council" of cross-party figures to discuss working together to stop a Reform UK government.

    The "council for the progressive majority" is being instigated by Compass, a centre-left thinktank whose founder Neal Lawson is an influential supporter of the Greater Manchester mayor.

    The council will be comprised of two leading figures from each of the progressive parties in the UK - Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

    Voters from these parties make up what Compass calls the "progressive majority" over the Conservatives and Reform and its previous incarnations.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/burnham-allies-plan-cross-party-council-to-stop-a-reform-uk-government-13549122
    The idea the hard left, Corbynite, Greens are progressive is an interesting one.
    Progressive is like 'liberal', 'left' and 'right'. Without elucidation one can have no idea what it means. For example you may think that progress involves equality of opportunity. Others may think it also involves equality of outcome. I think I am progressive. The first is great, and a top aspiration, the second is disastrous IMO.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,916
    edited May 30

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    When I see all this over-hyping, I'm reminded of Brian Rose's 2021 and 2024 London Mayoral runs.

    Except there are two vital differences.
    Restore have an established local Party, therefore a ground game.
    And pollsters and canvassers are picking up a level of support. The size of it is in question, but it isn't negligible.
    Who on earth was he?
    Rose or Lowe?

    Rose was a US banker turned drug addict, who re-invented himself as a podcaster.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559

    dixiedean said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    When I see all this over-hyping, I'm reminded of Brian Rose's 2021 and 2024 London Mayoral runs.

    Except there are two vital differences.
    Restore have an established local Party, therefore a ground game.
    And pollsters and canvassers are picking up a level of support. The size of it is in question, but it isn't negligible.
    Who on earth was he?
    Brian Rose was a candidate for London Mayor who used similar tactics to Restore by lumping money on the exchanges to the point where he became second favourite. And finished behind Binface.
    I'm merely pointing out ways in which Restore are dissimilar.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,587
    .
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I wasn't really aware of More in Common's polling segments.
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/seven-segments/

    "Established Liberals" seems a slightly misleading name for a group only one in five of whom vote LibDem.
    But it clearly captures something:

    This doesn't surprise me, while Labour's vote is down across 6 of our 7 segments, Established Liberals - the most comfortable, optimistic, internationalist group - are an exception. Among ELs Labour's vote hasn't dropped at all and they likely dominate audiences places like Hay
    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2060414799675003116

    The most interesting fact from that is the Conservatives now tie Labour for the lead with Established Liberals with the LDs third and Reform only 4th amongst this elite group.

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2060414799675003116?s=20
    In a segment the Conservatives won overwhelmingly in 2019, and narrowly in 2024.
    Established Liberals are the only group the Tories now lead with, albeit tied with Starmer Labour, of the other groups they won in 2024, Rooted Patriots now have a big Reform lead and Traditional Conservatives now narrowly prefer Reform over the Tories too.

    Boris won Dissenting Disruptors in 2019 but that group narrowly went Labour in 2024 and is now majority Reform. Sceptical Scrollers also went for Boris in 2019, strongly for Labour in 2024 and now Reform has a clear lead with that group as well.

    Of the 2 traditionally left leaning groups Corbyn won in 2019 and Starmer in 2024, Labour still lead clearly with the Incrementalist Left but Labour only narrowly lead the Greens with Progressive Activists

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/seven-segments/
    How can they be "traditionally left", when all of these categories are recent inventions of the pollster ?

    ...This report introduces More in Common’s new segmentation of the British public. Based on extended research into Britons’ core beliefs, their values and behaviours, and how they divide along these new fault lines, this segmentation allows us to look upstream not just at what different groups think, but why they think it...
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/seven-segments/
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,080
    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see the BMG polling suggests my gut instinct on Burnham not being able to save the tarnished Labour brand...

    That said, interesting to hear from someone on the spot that Burnham being a 'carpetbagger' might not help.....

    On the BMG poll Reform would win most seats but Burnham could be PM with LD, SNP, PC and Green and MIN support and the BMG poll is the worst hypthetical poll for him,MiC and Deltapoll both have Labour winning most seats with Burnham their leader
    Lol, try keeping that coalition together.
    'Allies of Andy Burnham will form a new "council" of cross-party figures to discuss working together to stop a Reform UK government.

    The "council for the progressive majority" is being instigated by Compass, a centre-left thinktank whose founder Neal Lawson is an influential supporter of the Greater Manchester mayor.

    The council will be comprised of two leading figures from each of the progressive parties in the UK - Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

    Voters from these parties make up what Compass calls the "progressive majority" over the Conservatives and Reform and its previous incarnations.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/burnham-allies-plan-cross-party-council-to-stop-a-reform-uk-government-13549122
    The idea the hard left, Corbynite, Greens are progressive is an interesting one.
    Progressive is like 'liberal', 'left' and 'right'. Without elucidation one can have no idea what it means. For example you may think that progress involves equality of opportunity. Others may think it also involves equality of outcome. I think I am progressive. The first is great, and a top aspiration, the second is disastrous IMO.

    I’d completely agree with this.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,493
    edited May 30

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see the BMG polling suggests my gut instinct on Burnham not being able to save the tarnished Labour brand...

    That said, interesting to hear from someone on the spot that Burnham being a 'carpetbagger' might not help.....

    On the BMG poll Reform would win most seats but Burnham could be PM with LD, SNP, PC and Green and MIN support and the BMG poll is the worst hypthetical poll for him,MiC and Deltapoll both have Labour winning most seats with Burnham their leader
    Lol, try keeping that coalition together.
    'Allies of Andy Burnham will form a new "council" of cross-party figures to discuss working together to stop a Reform UK government.

    The "council for the progressive majority" is being instigated by Compass, a centre-left thinktank whose founder Neal Lawson is an influential supporter of the Greater Manchester mayor.

    The council will be comprised of two leading figures from each of the progressive parties in the UK - Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

    Voters from these parties make up what Compass calls the "progressive majority" over the Conservatives and Reform and its previous incarnations.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/burnham-allies-plan-cross-party-council-to-stop-a-reform-uk-government-13549122
    Allies of Andy Burnham are getting ahead of themselves somewhat aren't they.....

    I'd love to see the tactical voting, and the right wing coalition, that this would lead to.
    There was a lot of tactical voting at the last election and it didn’t lead to a right wing coalition. There was a lot of tactical voting in Gorton & Denton and it didn’t lead to a right wing coalition.
    The Left are now despised in a way that the NU10K will never understand; and the Greens are seen by the average Briton as a danger....

    I suspect there will be a massive boost to the 'stop the left' bloc if it ever happened
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,185
    Having watched the Red Arrows directly overhead last night and literally just, they will always be iconic but losing the usual 2 singletons 8 and 9 has neutered a lot of the low flying over the site passes that dove tailed with the bigger formation stuff.

    By Arrows standards all a bit anti climactic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,587
    .

    David Gauke
    @DavidGauke

    I didn’t vote for either of the winners of the last two General Elections but “traitors” for whom a “reckoning is coming”? Really? This very excitable, angry & hyperbolic man should be nowhere near a position of responsibility in a political party that aspires to power.

    Quote Zia Yusuf

    @ZiaYusufUK

    Recent events demonstrate why I view the Tory and Labour politicians who created the burning injustice of modern Britain as traitors to their country.

    A reckoning is coming.

    https://x.com/DavidGauke/status/2060479604481986575

    This unpleasant character was himself a member of the Tory party only two years ago
    And half of Reform's leadership is composed of Tory retreads who were in office while this "burning injustice" was being created.

    Zia Yusuf is an arse.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,826
    dixiedean said:

    If Restore can establish themselves (and they have the money and Online reach), then we are talking 6 party politics. 7 in Scotland and Wales.
    Cross party cooperation then becomes inevitable if you want to win. So you need to do it before the other side does.
    Party x or y sticking their fingers in their ears and saying they are aiming for a majority government is a sure fire way to lose.

    Isn't Restore's distinctive feature (other than avuncular white supremacism) that they loathe Farage and Badenoch?

    What makes anyone think that they can work together?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564
    Arne Slot sacked by LFC
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    If Restore can establish themselves (and they have the money and Online reach), then we are talking 6 party politics. 7 in Scotland and Wales.
    Cross party cooperation then becomes inevitable if you want to win. So you need to do it before the other side does.
    Party x or y sticking their fingers in their ears and saying they are aiming for a majority government is a sure fire way to lose.

    Isn't Restore's distinctive feature (other than avuncular white supremacism) that they loathe Farage and Badenoch?

    What makes anyone think that they can work together?
    Well there you go then. The fever dream of right wing tactical voting isn't anywhere in sight at all. Makerfield being a current live example.
    I also said you need to do it before the other side does.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,916
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see the BMG polling suggests my gut instinct on Burnham not being able to save the tarnished Labour brand...

    That said, interesting to hear from someone on the spot that Burnham being a 'carpetbagger' might not help.....

    On the BMG poll Reform would win most seats but Burnham could be PM with LD, SNP, PC and Green and MIN support and the BMG poll is the worst hypthetical poll for him,MiC and Deltapoll both have Labour winning most seats with Burnham their leader
    Lol, try keeping that coalition together.
    'Allies of Andy Burnham will form a new "council" of cross-party figures to discuss working together to stop a Reform UK government.

    The "council for the progressive majority" is being instigated by Compass, a centre-left thinktank whose founder Neal Lawson is an influential supporter of the Greater Manchester mayor.

    The council will be comprised of two leading figures from each of the progressive parties in the UK - Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

    Voters from these parties make up what Compass calls the "progressive majority" over the Conservatives and Reform and its previous incarnations.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/burnham-allies-plan-cross-party-council-to-stop-a-reform-uk-government-13549122
    Allies of Andy Burnham are getting ahead of themselves somewhat aren't they.....

    I'd love to see the tactical voting, and the right wing coalition, that this would lead to.
    There was a lot of tactical voting at the last election and it didn’t lead to a right wing coalition. There was a lot of tactical voting in Gorton & Denton and it didn’t lead to a right wing coalition.
    The Left are now despised in a way that the NU10K will never understand; and the Greens are seen by the average Briton as a danger....

    I suspect there will be a massive boost to the 'stop the left' bloc if it ever happened
    The polling doesn’t support that: see this from February 2026, https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54117-what-is-the-tactical-voting-landscape-in-february-2026
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,587
    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see the BMG polling suggests my gut instinct on Burnham not being able to save the tarnished Labour brand...

    That said, interesting to hear from someone on the spot that Burnham being a 'carpetbagger' might not help.....

    On the BMG poll Reform would win most seats but Burnham could be PM with LD, SNP, PC and Green and MIN support and the BMG poll is the worst hypthetical poll for him,MiC and Deltapoll both have Labour winning most seats with Burnham their leader
    Lol, try keeping that coalition together.
    'Allies of Andy Burnham will form a new "council" of cross-party figures to discuss working together to stop a Reform UK government.

    The "council for the progressive majority" is being instigated by Compass, a centre-left thinktank whose founder Neal Lawson is an influential supporter of the Greater Manchester mayor.

    The council will be comprised of two leading figures from each of the progressive parties in the UK - Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

    Voters from these parties make up what Compass calls the "progressive majority" over the Conservatives and Reform and its previous incarnations.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/burnham-allies-plan-cross-party-council-to-stop-a-reform-uk-government-13549122
    The idea the hard left, Corbynite, Greens are progressive is an interesting one.
    Progressive is like 'liberal', 'left' and 'right'. Without elucidation one can have no idea what it means. For example you may think that progress involves equality of opportunity. Others may think it also involves equality of outcome. I think I am progressive. The first is great, and a top aspiration, the second is disastrous IMO.

    Politics always involves battles over definitions.

    But words have at least some attachment to their dictionary definitions.
    Restore, for example, are by definition, and by their own pronouncements, closer to the regressive side of the progressive/regressive dichotomy.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    Nigelb said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I wasn't really aware of More in Common's polling segments.
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/seven-segments/

    "Established Liberals" seems a slightly misleading name for a group only one in five of whom vote LibDem.
    But it clearly captures something:

    This doesn't surprise me, while Labour's vote is down across 6 of our 7 segments, Established Liberals - the most comfortable, optimistic, internationalist group - are an exception. Among ELs Labour's vote hasn't dropped at all and they likely dominate audiences places like Hay
    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2060414799675003116

    The most interesting fact from that is the Conservatives now tie Labour for the lead with Established Liberals with the LDs third and Reform only 4th amongst this elite group.

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2060414799675003116?s=20
    In a segment the Conservatives won overwhelmingly in 2019, and narrowly in 2024.
    Established Liberals are the only group the Tories now lead with, albeit tied with Starmer Labour, of the other groups they won in 2024, Rooted Patriots now have a big Reform lead and Traditional Conservatives now narrowly prefer Reform over the Tories too.

    Boris won Dissenting Disruptors in 2019 but that group narrowly went Labour in 2024 and is now majority Reform. Sceptical Scrollers also went for Boris in 2019, strongly for Labour in 2024 and now Reform has a clear lead with that group as well.

    Of the 2 traditionally left leaning groups Corbyn won in 2019 and Starmer in 2024, Labour still lead clearly with the Incrementalist Left but Labour only narrowly lead the Greens with Progressive Activists

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/seven-segments/
    How can they be "traditionally left", when all of these categories are recent inventions of the pollster ?

    ...This report introduces More in Common’s new segmentation of the British public. Based on extended research into Britons’ core beliefs, their values and behaviours, and how they divide along these new fault lines, this segmentation allows us to look upstream not just at what different groups think, but why they think it...
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/seven-segments/
    I'm a progressive activist.
    The latter, presumably, because I post about political matters on a daily basis.
    Which makes me interested rather than active, since I do bugger all else political.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,826
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see the BMG polling suggests my gut instinct on Burnham not being able to save the tarnished Labour brand...

    That said, interesting to hear from someone on the spot that Burnham being a 'carpetbagger' might not help.....

    On the BMG poll Reform would win most seats but Burnham could be PM with LD, SNP, PC and Green and MIN support and the BMG poll is the worst hypthetical poll for him,MiC and Deltapoll both have Labour winning most seats with Burnham their leader
    Lol, try keeping that coalition together.
    'Allies of Andy Burnham will form a new "council" of cross-party figures to discuss working together to stop a Reform UK government.

    The "council for the progressive majority" is being instigated by Compass, a centre-left thinktank whose founder Neal Lawson is an influential supporter of the Greater Manchester mayor.

    The council will be comprised of two leading figures from each of the progressive parties in the UK - Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

    Voters from these parties make up what Compass calls the "progressive majority" over the Conservatives and Reform and its previous incarnations.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/burnham-allies-plan-cross-party-council-to-stop-a-reform-uk-government-13549122
    Allies of Andy Burnham are getting ahead of themselves somewhat aren't they.....

    I'd love to see the tactical voting, and the right wing coalition, that this would lead to.
    There was a lot of tactical voting at the last election and it didn’t lead to a right wing coalition. There was a lot of tactical voting in Gorton & Denton and it didn’t lead to a right wing coalition.
    The Left are now despised in a way that the NU10K will never understand; and the Greens are seen by the average Briton as a danger....

    I suspect there will be a massive boost to the 'stop the left' bloc if it ever happened
    Do you have any polling to support this view?

    As I recall, it is Farage who is the most disliked of our politicians in the recent Yougov, at 51% compared to Polanski 21%

  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,124
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see the BMG polling suggests my gut instinct on Burnham not being able to save the tarnished Labour brand...

    That said, interesting to hear from someone on the spot that Burnham being a 'carpetbagger' might not help.....

    On the BMG poll Reform would win most seats but Burnham could be PM with LD, SNP, PC and Green and MIN support and the BMG poll is the worst hypthetical poll for him,MiC and Deltapoll both have Labour winning most seats with Burnham their leader
    Lol, try keeping that coalition together.
    'Allies of Andy Burnham will form a new "council" of cross-party figures to discuss working together to stop a Reform UK government.

    The "council for the progressive majority" is being instigated by Compass, a centre-left thinktank whose founder Neal Lawson is an influential supporter of the Greater Manchester mayor.

    The council will be comprised of two leading figures from each of the progressive parties in the UK - Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

    Voters from these parties make up what Compass calls the "progressive majority" over the Conservatives and Reform and its previous incarnations.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/burnham-allies-plan-cross-party-council-to-stop-a-reform-uk-government-13549122
    Allies of Andy Burnham are getting ahead of themselves somewhat aren't they.....

    I'd love to see the tactical voting, and the right wing coalition, that this would lead to.
    There was a lot of tactical voting at the last election and it didn’t lead to a right wing coalition. There was a lot of tactical voting in Gorton & Denton and it didn’t lead to a right wing coalition.
    The Left are now despised in a way that the NU10K will never understand; and the Greens are seen by the average Briton as a danger....

    I suspect there will be a massive boost to the 'stop the left' bloc if it ever happened
    Do you have any polling to support this view?

    As I recall, it is Farage who is the most disliked of our politicians in the recent Yougov, at 51% compared to Polanski 21%

    You took the words right out of my mouth.....

    Where do these posters get their information and is it coincidence that they're always dyed -in -the -wool -Tories?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,748

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    Arne Slot = Real Snot
    :lol:
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,876

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    It’s sad in that I don’t really like seeing anyone sacked and it’s not really the way Liverpool usually act but I think he had lost the squad and we needed some fresh thinking and attitude. I said to people that Iraola would be a better fit for Liverpool than Xabi Alonso as he likes a more aggressive style whilst Xabi is v possession based.

    Hopefully if we get Iraola we will also get Alex Scott, not the presenter, the midfielder.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842
    edited May 30
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see the BMG polling suggests my gut instinct on Burnham not being able to save the tarnished Labour brand...

    That said, interesting to hear from someone on the spot that Burnham being a 'carpetbagger' might not help.....

    On the BMG poll Reform would win most seats but Burnham could be PM with LD, SNP, PC and Green and MIN support and the BMG poll is the worst hypthetical poll for him,MiC and Deltapoll both have Labour winning most seats with Burnham their leader
    Lol, try keeping that coalition together.
    'Allies of Andy Burnham will form a new "council" of cross-party figures to discuss working together to stop a Reform UK government.

    The "council for the progressive majority" is being instigated by Compass, a centre-left thinktank whose founder Neal Lawson is an influential supporter of the Greater Manchester mayor.

    The council will be comprised of two leading figures from each of the progressive parties in the UK - Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

    Voters from these parties make up what Compass calls the "progressive majority" over the Conservatives and Reform and its previous incarnations.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/burnham-allies-plan-cross-party-council-to-stop-a-reform-uk-government-13549122
    Allies of Andy Burnham are getting ahead of themselves somewhat aren't they.....

    I'd love to see the tactical voting, and the right wing coalition, that this would lead to.
    There was a lot of tactical voting at the last election and it didn’t lead to a right wing coalition. There was a lot of tactical voting in Gorton & Denton and it didn’t lead to a right wing coalition.
    The Left are now despised in a way that the NU10K will never understand; and the Greens are seen by the average Briton as a danger....

    I suspect there will be a massive boost to the 'stop the left' bloc if it ever happened
    Possibly but Burnham polls better than Farage and Badenoch unlike Starmer and the centrist LDs are also part of the proposed Burnham led block so it is not just the left.

    I do think it is very possible though that while Reform and the Tories combined win a majority of seats in England against such a block, Burnham would win a majority UK wide for this block with SNP and PC support.

    Which would make a nice change where English voters can shout 'Westminster stops us getting the governments we vote for' and would likely ignite calls for EVEL again or even an English Parliament with the same powers as Holyrood and the Senedd
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,124

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    What a shame. One of the more likeable managers
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564
    edited May 30
    boulay said:

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    It’s sad in that I don’t really like seeing anyone sacked and it’s not really the way Liverpool usually act but I think he had lost the squad and we needed some fresh thinking and attitude. I said to people that Iraola would be a better fit for Liverpool than Xabi Alonso as he likes a more aggressive style whilst Xabi is v possession based.

    Hopefully if we get Iraola we will also get Alex Scott, not the presenter, the midfielder.
    The shortlist is reportedly between Iraola, Pierre Sage, and Sebastian Hoeneß.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,428
    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see the BMG polling suggests my gut instinct on Burnham not being able to save the tarnished Labour brand...

    That said, interesting to hear from someone on the spot that Burnham being a 'carpetbagger' might not help.....

    On the BMG poll Reform would win most seats but Burnham could be PM with LD, SNP, PC and Green and MIN support and the BMG poll is the worst hypthetical poll for him,MiC and Deltapoll both have Labour winning most seats with Burnham their leader
    Lol, try keeping that coalition together.
    'Allies of Andy Burnham will form a new "council" of cross-party figures to discuss working together to stop a Reform UK government.

    The "council for the progressive majority" is being instigated by Compass, a centre-left thinktank whose founder Neal Lawson is an influential supporter of the Greater Manchester mayor.

    The council will be comprised of two leading figures from each of the progressive parties in the UK - Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

    Voters from these parties make up what Compass calls the "progressive majority" over the Conservatives and Reform and its previous incarnations.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/burnham-allies-plan-cross-party-council-to-stop-a-reform-uk-government-13549122
    The idea the hard left, Corbynite, Greens are progressive is an interesting one.
    Progressive is like 'liberal', 'left' and 'right'. Without elucidation one can have no idea what it means. For example you may think that progress involves equality of opportunity. Others may think it also involves equality of outcome. I think I am progressive. The first is great, and a top aspiration, the second is disastrous IMO.

    Politics always involves battles over definitions.

    But words have at least some attachment to their dictionary definitions.
    Restore, for example, are by definition, and by their own pronouncements, closer to the regressive side of the progressive/regressive dichotomy.
    I agree that the political fray will always use all sorts of doubtful techniques including the blurring or eliding or sanctifying or demonising particular trigger word. Just as they will use equivocation, straw men, pivoting, dust throwing, ad hominem and so on.

    I accept that some views obviously fall within the meaning of 'regressive'. The reintroduction of feudal service and frankelmoign for example. But it is not at all clear what counts as progressive, since this involves a set of aspirations about the future, not the past, and about this it seems to me impossible to clarify which sets of views count as 'progressive' and why, without tautology or circular argument.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    The correct decision.
    I’ve been a red since I can remember. I’ve a photo of me and my dad in the trophy room holding the European cup shortly after Emlyn lifted it in ‘78.
    I can forgive many things, followed through the highs and lows. But we’ve just been so bloody boring this year.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,748
    Nigelb said:

    .

    David Gauke
    @DavidGauke

    I didn’t vote for either of the winners of the last two General Elections but “traitors” for whom a “reckoning is coming”? Really? This very excitable, angry & hyperbolic man should be nowhere near a position of responsibility in a political party that aspires to power.

    Quote Zia Yusuf

    @ZiaYusufUK

    Recent events demonstrate why I view the Tory and Labour politicians who created the burning injustice of modern Britain as traitors to their country.

    A reckoning is coming.

    https://x.com/DavidGauke/status/2060479604481986575

    This unpleasant character was himself a member of the Tory party only two years ago
    And half of Reform's leadership is composed of Tory retreads who were in office while this "burning injustice" was being created.

    Zia Yusuf is an arse.
    King of the Coconuts?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,447
    So Burnham has moved beyond expecting Labourites to genuflect before him to now expecting members of other parties to bow down.

    Just when you think he has reached peak arrogance, he takes it to another level.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,027
    FF43 said:

    Rupert Lowe is a genuine Nazi promoting racial purity, and should be dealt with as such.

    A Restore spokesperson has said that people without “indigenous British ancestry and Christian faith” cannot be considered British.

    Presumably King Charles will be banished to Greece, Germany or somewhere.

    https://bsky.app/profile/katie0martin.ft.com/post/3mmyog7n5rz2a

    So as someone who's ancestry is, as far as anybody is able to trace back, 100% either English and Welsh, I'm not British because I think Christianity is a load of made up nonsense?

    I mean by that logic I'd be surprised if much more than a third of the population was British.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    Ratters said:

    FF43 said:

    Rupert Lowe is a genuine Nazi promoting racial purity, and should be dealt with as such.

    A Restore spokesperson has said that people without “indigenous British ancestry and Christian faith” cannot be considered British.

    Presumably King Charles will be banished to Greece, Germany or somewhere.

    https://bsky.app/profile/katie0martin.ft.com/post/3mmyog7n5rz2a

    So as someone who's ancestry is, as far as anybody is able to trace back, 100% either English and Welsh, I'm not British because I think Christianity is a load of made up nonsense?

    I mean by that logic I'd be surprised if much more than a third of the population was British.
    Does Ireland count? I suppose it doesn't matter since I'm actively not Christian.
    Deportation to Thailand could be worse I guess.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,826
    edited May 30

    So Burnham has moved beyond expecting Labourites to genuflect before him to now expecting members of other parties to bow down.

    Just when you think he has reached peak arrogance, he takes it to another level.

    Maybe I am being a bit naive, but isn't that how you win elections - by convincing supporters of other parties to vote for you instead?

    I am not convinced by Burnham, but he is one of very few prominent Labour politicians that can communicate, radiates normality and has some charisma. He is clearly their best chance for the 2029 GE.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564

    So Burnham has moved beyond expecting Labourites to genuflect before him to now expecting members of other parties to bow down.

    Just when you think he has reached peak arrogance, he takes it to another level.

    I cannot believe a Cambridge educated man could display such arrogance.

    I am happy to give him lessons on how to behave in a modest and self effacing way.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,185
    Sweeney74 said:

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    The correct decision.
    I’ve been a red since I can remember. I’ve a photo of me and my dad in the trophy room holding the European cup shortly after Emlyn lifted it in ‘78.
    I can forgive many things, followed through the highs and lows. But we’ve just been so bloody boring this year.
    Replacing all time greats is not easy. Klopp is an all time great.

    Having over achieved at a small Club I wonder if Unai Emery might fancy another crack at one of the big 6 clubs
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,791

    boulay said:

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    It’s sad in that I don’t really like seeing anyone sacked and it’s not really the way Liverpool usually act but I think he had lost the squad and we needed some fresh thinking and attitude. I said to people that Iraola would be a better fit for Liverpool than Xabi Alonso as he likes a more aggressive style whilst Xabi is v possession based.

    Hopefully if we get Iraola we will also get Alex Scott, not the presenter, the midfielder.
    The shortlist is reportedly between Iraola, Pierre Sage, and Sebastian Hoeneß.
    No return for the Kloppmeister then?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,428
    dixiedean said:

    Ratters said:

    FF43 said:

    Rupert Lowe is a genuine Nazi promoting racial purity, and should be dealt with as such.

    A Restore spokesperson has said that people without “indigenous British ancestry and Christian faith” cannot be considered British.

    Presumably King Charles will be banished to Greece, Germany or somewhere.

    https://bsky.app/profile/katie0martin.ft.com/post/3mmyog7n5rz2a

    So as someone who's ancestry is, as far as anybody is able to trace back, 100% either English and Welsh, I'm not British because I think Christianity is a load of made up nonsense?

    I mean by that logic I'd be surprised if much more than a third of the population was British.
    Does Ireland count? I suppose it doesn't matter since I'm actively not Christian.
    Deportation to Thailand could be worse I guess.
    I can only trace my indigenous ancestry back to the 1380s, and I have a horrible feeling it may involves Angles, Saxons, Danes, Normans and other unbritish interlopers. Is it still safe to vote Restore?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,218
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see the BMG polling suggests my gut instinct on Burnham not being able to save the tarnished Labour brand...

    That said, interesting to hear from someone on the spot that Burnham being a 'carpetbagger' might not help.....

    On the BMG poll Reform would win most seats but Burnham could be PM with LD, SNP, PC and Green and MIN support and the BMG poll is the worst hypthetical poll for him,MiC and Deltapoll both have Labour winning most seats with Burnham their leader
    Lol, try keeping that coalition together.
    'Allies of Andy Burnham will form a new "council" of cross-party figures to discuss working together to stop a Reform UK government.

    The "council for the progressive majority" is being instigated by Compass, a centre-left thinktank whose founder Neal Lawson is an influential supporter of the Greater Manchester mayor.

    The council will be comprised of two leading figures from each of the progressive parties in the UK - Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

    Voters from these parties make up what Compass calls the "progressive majority" over the Conservatives and Reform and its previous incarnations.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/burnham-allies-plan-cross-party-council-to-stop-a-reform-uk-government-13549122
    Allies of Andy Burnham are getting ahead of themselves somewhat aren't they.....

    I'd love to see the tactical voting, and the right wing coalition, that this would lead to.
    There was a lot of tactical voting at the last election and it didn’t lead to a right wing coalition. There was a lot of tactical voting in Gorton & Denton and it didn’t lead to a right wing coalition.
    The Left are now despised in a way that the NU10K will never understand; and the Greens are seen by the average Briton as a danger....

    I suspect there will be a massive boost to the 'stop the left' bloc if it ever happened
    Do you have any polling to support this view?

    As I recall, it is Farage who is the most disliked of our politicians in the recent Yougov, at 51% compared to Polanski 21%

    You took the words right out of my mouth.....

    Where do these posters get their information and is it coincidence that they're always dyed -in -the -wool -Tories?
    More people have heard of and developed an opinion of Farage. If the toothy tit-whisperer ever gets to Farage's level of name-recognition, I would expect his dislike score to be higher than 51%.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564

    boulay said:

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    It’s sad in that I don’t really like seeing anyone sacked and it’s not really the way Liverpool usually act but I think he had lost the squad and we needed some fresh thinking and attitude. I said to people that Iraola would be a better fit for Liverpool than Xabi Alonso as he likes a more aggressive style whilst Xabi is v possession based.

    Hopefully if we get Iraola we will also get Alex Scott, not the presenter, the midfielder.
    The shortlist is reportedly between Iraola, Pierre Sage, and Sebastian Hoeneß.
    No return for the Kloppmeister then?
    I think he’s done with club management.

    I think he’ll manage Germany soon.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    Brixian59 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    The correct decision.
    I’ve been a red since I can remember. I’ve a photo of me and my dad in the trophy room holding the European cup shortly after Emlyn lifted it in ‘78.
    I can forgive many things, followed through the highs and lows. But we’ve just been so bloody boring this year.
    Replacing all time greats is not easy. Klopp is an all time great.

    Having over achieved at a small Club I wonder if Unai Emery might fancy another crack at one of the big 6 clubs
    Too late. The Baggies have already appointed Morrison.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,447
    Foxy said:

    So Burnham has moved beyond expecting Labourites to genuflect before him to now expecting members of other parties to bow down.

    Just when you think he has reached peak arrogance, he takes it to another level.

    Maybe I am being a bit naive, but isn't that how you win elections - by convincing supporters of other parties to vote for you instead?

    I am not convinced by Burnham, but he is one of very few prominent Labour politicians that can communicate, radiates normality and has some charisma. He is clearly their best chance for the 2029 GE.
    It's one thing to try and convince waverers to vote for you.

    Quite another to expect members of other parties to do the convincing for you.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,791
    Brixian59 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    The correct decision.
    I’ve been a red since I can remember. I’ve a photo of me and my dad in the trophy room holding the European cup shortly after Emlyn lifted it in ‘78.
    I can forgive many things, followed through the highs and lows. But we’ve just been so bloody boring this year.
    Replacing all time greats is not easy. Klopp is an all time great.

    Having over achieved at a small Club I wonder if Unai Emery might fancy another crack at one of the big 6 clubs
    I wouldn't describe Arsenal as a small club. They are, after all, about to compete in the Champions League final.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,447

    boulay said:

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    It’s sad in that I don’t really like seeing anyone sacked and it’s not really the way Liverpool usually act but I think he had lost the squad and we needed some fresh thinking and attitude. I said to people that Iraola would be a better fit for Liverpool than Xabi Alonso as he likes a more aggressive style whilst Xabi is v possession based.

    Hopefully if we get Iraola we will also get Alex Scott, not the presenter, the midfielder.
    The shortlist is reportedly between Iraola, Pierre Sage, and Sebastian Hoeneß.
    No return for the Kloppmeister then?
    They could get him for less on Trivago.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,748

    boulay said:

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    It’s sad in that I don’t really like seeing anyone sacked and it’s not really the way Liverpool usually act but I think he had lost the squad and we needed some fresh thinking and attitude. I said to people that Iraola would be a better fit for Liverpool than Xabi Alonso as he likes a more aggressive style whilst Xabi is v possession based.

    Hopefully if we get Iraola we will also get Alex Scott, not the presenter, the midfielder.
    The shortlist is reportedly between Iraola, Pierre Sage, and Sebastian Hoeneß.
    No return for the Kloppmeister then?
    They could get him for less on Trivago.
    You should have checked Trivago!
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,876

    boulay said:

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    It’s sad in that I don’t really like seeing anyone sacked and it’s not really the way Liverpool usually act but I think he had lost the squad and we needed some fresh thinking and attitude. I said to people that Iraola would be a better fit for Liverpool than Xabi Alonso as he likes a more aggressive style whilst Xabi is v possession based.

    Hopefully if we get Iraola we will also get Alex Scott, not the presenter, the midfielder.
    The shortlist is reportedly between Iraola, Pierre Sage, and Sebastian Hoeneß.
    No return for the Kloppmeister then?
    I think he’s done with club management.

    I think he’ll manage Germany soon.
    I would like him to run Britain.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,826

    boulay said:

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    It’s sad in that I don’t really like seeing anyone sacked and it’s not really the way Liverpool usually act but I think he had lost the squad and we needed some fresh thinking and attitude. I said to people that Iraola would be a better fit for Liverpool than Xabi Alonso as he likes a more aggressive style whilst Xabi is v possession based.

    Hopefully if we get Iraola we will also get Alex Scott, not the presenter, the midfielder.
    The shortlist is reportedly between Iraola, Pierre Sage, and Sebastian Hoeneß.
    No return for the Kloppmeister then?
    I think he’s done with club management.

    I think he’ll manage Germany soon.
    I have a tenner on Germany for the World cup at 17.5.

    Spain and France are the obvious favourites but Germany seems to have their best team in years.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,550
    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyway, pb, I have just got back from two days campervanning with some of my daughters in the North West of Scotland during which I have been completely cut off from the news. It has been lovely. We swam in the sea just North of Arisaig (the sea! In Scotland! In May!) with views over to Skye and Rum. It was just astonishingly beautiful.


    (That's not my family in shot, btw - just random bystanders)

    That sounds great. How long was the overall trip, since it would take quite a long time to get there from Manc?\ Fly-drive?

    I once did a rail from Kings Cross to Inverness, which was ... lengthy.
    It was quite drive-heavy! It was a balance of away-for-long-enough-to-make-it-worthwhile with what-if-it's awful and also middle daughter's need to revise for her end of year exams. So we were only away for two nights: first day was Manchester-Doune (where we picked the van up) - Glencoe (where we spent the night): second day was Glencoe-Arisaig where we explored the coast and spent the night. Grey and grizzly on the third day but that was largely coming home, albeit with a couple of stops. A lot of driving, but driving is part of the pleasure of the holiday, particulalrly when you're in a van and you're up high and all three sitting in the front!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,475
    edited May 30
    Ratters said:

    FF43 said:

    Rupert Lowe is a genuine Nazi promoting racial purity, and should be dealt with as such.

    A Restore spokesperson has said that people without “indigenous British ancestry and Christian faith” cannot be considered British.

    Presumably King Charles will be banished to Greece, Germany or somewhere.

    https://bsky.app/profile/katie0martin.ft.com/post/3mmyog7n5rz2a

    So as someone who's ancestry is, as far as anybody is able to trace back, 100% either English and Welsh, I'm not British because I think Christianity is a load of made up nonsense?

    I mean by that logic I'd be surprised if much more than a third of the population was British.
    I'd say that "genuine Nazi" is pushing it a little. I'm still working out where he fits in the political zoo (I may make a separate comment). They are not yet into specific genocide, which I suggest would be required.

    Economically he tries to present as "heir to Thatcher", like a number of people. But his deportation etc policies are afaics indistinguishable from Trump's, which are at root ethnic cleansing.

    I think there are valid comparisons with Italian Fascisti in the 1920s, or Oswald Mosley's post-war policies.

    It very much seems to me that they are repeating the old BNP ethno-nationalism position, as found in the BNP Constitution.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,185

    Brixian59 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    The correct decision.
    I’ve been a red since I can remember. I’ve a photo of me and my dad in the trophy room holding the European cup shortly after Emlyn lifted it in ‘78.
    I can forgive many things, followed through the highs and lows. But we’ve just been so bloody boring this year.
    Replacing all time greats is not easy. Klopp is an all time great.

    Having over achieved at a small Club I wonder if Unai Emery might fancy another crack at one of the big 6 clubs
    I wouldn't describe Arsenal as a small club. They are, after all, about to compete in the Champions League final.
    I wasn't referring to Arsenal.

    I was referring to the small Club in Witton
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842
    edited May 30

    So Burnham has moved beyond expecting Labourites to genuflect before him to now expecting members of other parties to bow down.

    Just when you think he has reached peak arrogance, he takes it to another level.

    Not really, camp Burnham just know that to beat Reform and the Tories they need an alliance of left of centre and liberal parties and unless Labour win a majority they would need to work together in a hung parliament as well
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,748
    HYUFD said:

    So Burnham has moved beyond expecting Labourites to genuflect before him to now expecting members of other parties to bow down.

    Just when you think he has reached peak arrogance, he takes it to another level.

    Not really, camp Burnham just know that to beat Reform they need an alliance of left of centre and liberal parties and unless Labour win a majority they would need to work together in a hung parliament as well
    Camp Freddy, Camp Andy? :lol:
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,624
    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    It’s sad in that I don’t really like seeing anyone sacked and it’s not really the way Liverpool usually act but I think he had lost the squad and we needed some fresh thinking and attitude. I said to people that Iraola would be a better fit for Liverpool than Xabi Alonso as he likes a more aggressive style whilst Xabi is v possession based.

    Hopefully if we get Iraola we will also get Alex Scott, not the presenter, the midfielder.
    The shortlist is reportedly between Iraola, Pierre Sage, and Sebastian Hoeneß.
    No return for the Kloppmeister then?
    I think he’s done with club management.

    I think he’ll manage Germany soon.
    I have a tenner on Germany for the World cup at 17.5.

    Spain and France are the obvious favourites but Germany seems to have their best team in years.
    Argentina look good. Lo Celso, who missed the Qatar WC through injury, is fit and playing well. They've probably got the best midfield in the tournament and great depth in the squad.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,447
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,748

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    Sleazy, broken Greens on the slide!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,624

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    Something for just about everybody to be annoyed about there. #gokemi
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,790
    It's just dumb when someone fires a leader who delivered a great result after only a year or so of some difficulty.

    Goodbye Keir Slot and Arne Starmer
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 878
    OT - Restore GB will of course win the Makerfield by-election but the count will be rigged to deliver the seat to either the Government or the controlled oppositon (Farage).

    There - I should invoice Rupert for writing his press release...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,790
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    When I see all this over-hyping, I'm reminded of Brian Rose's 2021 and 2024 London Mayoral runs.


    He came below Count Binface in 2024 - hilarious.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,790

    OT - Restore GB will of course win the Makerfield by-election but the count will be rigged to deliver the seat to either the Government or the controlled oppositon (Farage).

    There - I should invoice Rupert for writing his press release...

    Not enough references to deep state (I assume).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    edited May 30
    ...

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    We are not discussing enough about what a sleazy bunch of ****s Reform are.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,790

    ...

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    We are not discussing enough about what a sleazy bunch of ****s Reform are.
    Or why the sun is hot?

    Being serious, at present people either care about it a lot, or not at all. I'm not sure what would move the needle on that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,475
    On topic.

    I'd suggest the best comparison for Restore UK performance would be the old media friendly shiny-suits BNP.

    That would perhaps imply potential from a couple of percent, to the low 10s. But it could be changed by circumstances.

    And that's as close as I will get.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Arne Slot sacked by LFC

    The correct decision.
    I’ve been a red since I can remember. I’ve a photo of me and my dad in the trophy room holding the European cup shortly after Emlyn lifted it in ‘78.
    I can forgive many things, followed through the highs and lows. But we’ve just been so bloody boring this year.
    Replacing all time greats is not easy. Klopp is an all time great.

    Having over achieved at a small Club I wonder if Unai Emery might fancy another crack at one of the big 6 clubs
    I wouldn't describe Arsenal as a small club. They are, after all, about to compete in the Champions League final.
    I wasn't referring to Arsenal.

    I was referring to the small Club in Witton
    He managed Lozells Strikers?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    edited May 30
    kle4 said:

    ...

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    We are not discussing enough about what a sleazy bunch of ****s Reform are.
    Or why the sun is hot?

    Being serious, at present people either care about it a lot, or not at all. I'm not sure what would move the needle on that.
    It is a media issue. The media drove Rayner's tax affairs and the idea Nippy must have known her husband was a wrong 'un, but Nigel's £5m, which so far was only leaked as a murderous plot by his former friends, the Russians, and was spent entirely on security because someone loosened the wheel nuts on his Volvo, despite the mechanic who checked them not confirming this.

    What we do know is it definitely wasn't spent on two cash-buy houses, unless the media thinks this might be rubbish, and takes a look.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755

    HYUFD said:

    So Burnham has moved beyond expecting Labourites to genuflect before him to now expecting members of other parties to bow down.

    Just when you think he has reached peak arrogance, he takes it to another level.

    Not really, camp Burnham just know that to beat Reform they need an alliance of left of centre and liberal parties and unless Labour win a majority they would need to work together in a hung parliament as well
    Camp Freddy, Camp Andy? :lol:
    Camp Freddy...you all know
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,623
    Though I don't particularly care, wouldn't it have been courteous of Liverpool to leave their Slot announcement until Monday, to allow another English team, Arsenal, undiluted coverage over the weekend?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,124
    edited May 30
    Completely OT but for football fans an entertaining interview with a Man City fan channelist interviewing a girl from the Man City US office. I just find her and her observations really amusing and informative.

    https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=esteemed+kompany+x#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:f5b155f1,vid:Pk8QndI6O4o,st:0
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,700
    I see Zelensky has lost Walesa

    Polish Nobel Peace Prize-winner Lech Walesa, who was crucial in the fall of communism in Poland in 1989, said he had decided to stop wearing a Ukrainian flag pin as a result of Zelensky honouring the UPA.


    “By honouring the bandits of the UPA, the president of Ukraine has insulted me and all our massacred compatriots,” Walesa said
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,352
    Foxy said:

    So Burnham has moved beyond expecting Labourites to genuflect before him to now expecting members of other parties to bow down.

    Just when you think he has reached peak arrogance, he takes it to another level.

    Maybe I am being a bit naive, but isn't that how you win elections - by convincing supporters of other parties to vote for you instead?

    I am not convinced by Burnham, but he is one of very few prominent Labour politicians that can communicate, radiates normality and has some charisma. He is clearly their best chance for the 2029 GE.
    He at least seems to have realised Labour have a much better chance of winning back green votes than Reform votes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733

    I see Zelensky has lost Walesa

    Polish Nobel Peace Prize-winner Lech Walesa, who was crucial in the fall of communism in Poland in 1989, said he had decided to stop wearing a Ukrainian flag pin as a result of Zelensky honouring the UPA.


    “By honouring the bandits of the UPA, the president of Ukraine has insulted me and all our massacred compatriots,” Walesa said

    Not just Walesa. The whole of Poland seems very phased. A mistep from Z?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559
    MattW said:

    Ratters said:

    FF43 said:

    Rupert Lowe is a genuine Nazi promoting racial purity, and should be dealt with as such.

    A Restore spokesperson has said that people without “indigenous British ancestry and Christian faith” cannot be considered British.

    Presumably King Charles will be banished to Greece, Germany or somewhere.

    https://bsky.app/profile/katie0martin.ft.com/post/3mmyog7n5rz2a

    So as someone who's ancestry is, as far as anybody is able to trace back, 100% either English and Welsh, I'm not British because I think Christianity is a load of made up nonsense?

    I mean by that logic I'd be surprised if much more than a third of the population was British.
    I'd say that "genuine Nazi" is pushing it a little. I'm still working out where he fits in the political zoo (I may make a separate comment). They are not yet into specific genocide, which I suggest would be required.

    Economically he tries to present as "heir to Thatcher", like a number of people. But his deportation etc policies are afaics indistinguishable from Trump's, which are at root ethnic cleansing.

    I think there are valid comparisons with Italian Fascisti in the 1920s, or Oswald Mosley's post-war policies.

    It very much seems to me that they are repeating the old BNP ethno-nationalism position, as found in the BNP Constitution.
    Restore are pretty much the 6.5% who voted for Nick Griffin. They haven't had an outlet since.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,700
    edited May 30

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    Sleazy, broken Greens on the slide!
    Who is?


    Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK
    ·
    May 28
    Find Out Now voting intention
    🟦 Reform UK: 25% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 19% (+2)
    🔵 Conservatives: 18% (+1)
    🔴 Labour: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)

    Changes w/May 20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842
    Dura_Ace said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    Something for just about everybody to be annoyed about there. #gokemi
    Yes Kemi holding a solid third for the Tories there putting clear bluewater between the Conservatives the LDs and the Greens, good news for Labour as they are up the most even as Reform also remain clear leaders
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    Sleazy, broken Greens on the slide!
    Who is?


    Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK
    ·
    May 28
    Find Out Now voting intention
    🟦 Reform UK: 25% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 19% (+2)
    🔵 Conservatives: 18% (+1)
    🔴 Labour: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)

    Changes w/May 20
    FON massively overrate the Greens
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    Sleazy, broken Greens on the slide!
    Who is?


    Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK
    ·
    May 28
    Find Out Now voting intention
    🟦 Reform UK: 25% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 19% (+2)
    🔵 Conservatives: 18% (+1)
    🔴 Labour: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)

    Changes w/May 20
    PB's favourite pollster does it again. Posted two days ago but worth posting again. I doubt the BMG one gets another outing.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,755
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I wasn't really aware of More in Common's polling segments.
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/seven-segments/

    "Established Liberals" seems a slightly misleading name for a group only one in five of whom vote LibDem.
    But it clearly captures something:

    This doesn't surprise me, while Labour's vote is down across 6 of our 7 segments, Established Liberals - the most comfortable, optimistic, internationalist group - are an exception. Among ELs Labour's vote hasn't dropped at all and they likely dominate audiences places like Hay
    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2060414799675003116

    The most interesting fact from that is the Conservatives now tie Labour for the lead with Established Liberals with the LDs third and Reform only 4th amongst this elite group.

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2060414799675003116?s=20
    In a segment the Conservatives won overwhelmingly in 2019, and narrowly in 2024.
    Established Liberals are the only group the Tories now lead with, albeit tied with Starmer Labour, of the other groups they won in 2024, Rooted Patriots now have a big Reform lead and Traditional Conservatives now narrowly prefer Reform over the Tories too.

    Boris won Dissenting Disruptors in 2019 but that group narrowly went Labour in 2024 and is now majority Reform. Sceptical Scrollers also went for Boris in 2019, strongly for Labour in 2024 and now Reform has a clear lead with that group as well.

    Of the 2 traditionally left leaning groups Corbyn won in 2019 and Starmer in 2024, Labour still lead clearly with the Incrementalist Left but Labour only narrowly lead the Greens with Progressive Activists

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/seven-segments/
    How can they be "traditionally left", when all of these categories are recent inventions of the pollster ?

    ...This report introduces More in Common’s new segmentation of the British public. Based on extended research into Britons’ core beliefs, their values and behaviours, and how they divide along these new fault lines, this segmentation allows us to look upstream not just at what different groups think, but why they think it...
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/seven-segments/
    I'm a progressive activist.
    The latter, presumably, because I post about political matters on a daily basis.
    Which makes me interested rather than active, since I do bugger all else political.
    I went through the questions and it said I was a dissenting disruptor. So I went back and changed my answers to two questions, and now I'm a progressive activist. But I am neither, so I threw the test out of the window and got on with the day. Bad test, bad
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,124
    Dura_Ace said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    Something for just about everybody to be annoyed about there. #gokemi
    Another extraordinary poll for the enigma that is setting PB alight.

    KEMI ON 17%!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564
    Republic now!

    Buckingham Palace was handed emails six years ago that would have shown that Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was sharing confidential government information while a trade envoy, according to court documents.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy02j5pl98no
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564
    edited May 30

    Though I don't particularly care, wouldn't it have been courteous of Liverpool to leave their Slot announcement until Monday, to allow another English team, Arsenal, undiluted coverage over the weekend?

    Liverpool had to act, their first choice was in talks to join AC Milan.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,916
    Trump has said the US has a drug that can bring people back from the dead.

    What is there to be said?
  • Labour will poll above 30% in the next election. In my view.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,624

    A mistep from Z?

    Not really. It's part of his continual and necessary balancing act that has been going since he took office. Externally, to his findom paypigs in Western Europe, he has to masquerade as a thoroughly modern neo-liberal. However, in order to placate and manage very unruly and possibly very violent factions inside Ukraine he has to keep doing Nazi adjacent stuff like this and the recent state reburial of Melnik, the Abwehr agent and Nazi collaborator. Zelensky called him a "hero".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,700

    Labour will poll above 30% in the next election. In my view.

    Only if KoN is leader
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733

    Trump has said the US has a drug that can bring people back from the dead.

    What is there to be said?

    He looks like he might be speaking from personal experience...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,700

    Trump has said the US has a drug that can bring people back from the dead.

    What is there to be said?

    Can we get it to JFK?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,826

    Trump has said the US has a drug that can bring people back from the dead.

    What is there to be said?

    He looks like he might be speaking from personal experience...
    It does explain the picture of him as "a doctor".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,700
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    Sleazy, broken Greens on the slide!
    Who is?


    Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK
    ·
    May 28
    Find Out Now voting intention
    🟦 Reform UK: 25% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 19% (+2)
    🔵 Conservatives: 18% (+1)
    🔴 Labour: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)

    Changes w/May 20
    FON massively overrate the Greens
    Although weren't they nearest on Gorton & Denton?

    Did they not finish 2nd on implied vote share in LE2026

    Are we saying Sir John Curtice is a ZP Fan
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498
    edited May 30
    a
    Foxy said:

    Trump has said the US has a drug that can bring people back from the dead.

    What is there to be said?

    He looks like he might be speaking from personal experience...
    It does explain the picture of him as "a doctor".
    The Monkey’s Paw comes to mind.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498

    Trump has said the US has a drug that can bring people back from the dead.

    What is there to be said?

    Can we get it to JFK?
    Do you want to invade Cuba, then?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834

    Trump has said the US has a drug that can bring people back from the dead.

    What is there to be said?

    “I tried it and it brought back Elvis. It’s unbelievable.”
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498
    Clowns on Russian TV are demanding attacks on Stevenage.

    The fools haven’t realised that if they do that, and reduce Stevenage to a radioactive wasteland, inhabited by mutant cannibal zombies, the U.K. will unleash the Ultimate Weapon.

    A Process State demand for CGT for the uplift in property values.

    Which will be pursued, Forever.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    Sleazy, broken Greens on the slide!
    Who is?


    Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK
    ·
    May 28
    Find Out Now voting intention
    🟦 Reform UK: 25% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 19% (+2)
    🔵 Conservatives: 18% (+1)
    🔴 Labour: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)

    Changes w/May 20
    FON massively overrate the Greens
    Their colour icons would look a bit rubbish without the Greens in second to be fair.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    When I see all this over-hyping, I'm reminded of Brian Rose's 2021 and 2024 London Mayoral runs.


    He came below Count Binface in 2024 - hilarious.
    Who doesn't want the hand dryer in the Crown & Treaty moved to a better position?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    edited May 30
    Foxy said:

    Trump has said the US has a drug that can bring people back from the dead.

    What is there to be said?

    He looks like he might be speaking from personal experience...
    It does explain the picture of him as "a doctor".
    I had more in mind that he has to cover his skin with concealer and he is apparently surrounded by the malodorous aroma of decayed flesh.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,748

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    Sleazy, broken Greens on the slide!
    Who is?


    Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK
    ·
    May 28
    Find Out Now voting intention
    🟦 Reform UK: 25% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 19% (+2)
    🔵 Conservatives: 18% (+1)
    🔴 Labour: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)

    Changes w/May 20
    Find Outliers Now!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,218

    ...

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    We are not discussing enough about what a sleazy bunch of ****s Reform are.
    I think you're doing enough for all of us.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,934

    Trump has said the US has a drug that can bring people back from the dead.

    What is there to be said?

    “I tried it and it brought back Elvis. It’s unbelievable.”
    FAKE NEWS - from those of us with suspicious minds.
  • Again, weren’t FindOutNow miles out for the locals? And Gorton?
  • HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    Sleazy, broken Greens on the slide!
    Who is?


    Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK
    ·
    May 28
    Find Out Now voting intention
    🟦 Reform UK: 25% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 19% (+2)
    🔵 Conservatives: 18% (+1)
    🔴 Labour: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)

    Changes w/May 20
    FON massively overrate the Greens
    Although weren't they nearest on Gorton & Denton?

    Did they not finish 2nd on implied vote share in LE2026

    Are we saying Sir John Curtice is a ZP Fan
    I thought they got the locals very wrong
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    edited May 30

    ...

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    We are not discussing enough about what a sleazy bunch of ****s Reform are.
    I think you're doing enough for all of us.
    Thank you. I try my best.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    Foxy said:

    Trump has said the US has a drug that can bring people back from the dead.

    What is there to be said?

    He looks like he might be speaking from personal experience...
    It does explain the picture of him as "a doctor".
    And Jesus!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 29% (+1)
    LAB: 21% (+2)
    CON: 17% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 12% (-4)
    SNP: 4% (+1)

    Via BMGResearch, 26-28 May.
    Changes w/ 29-30 Apr.

    Sleazy, broken Greens on the slide!
    Who is?


    Find Out Now
    @FindoutnowUK
    ·
    May 28
    Find Out Now voting intention
    🟦 Reform UK: 25% (-1)
    🟢 Greens: 19% (+2)
    🔵 Conservatives: 18% (+1)
    🔴 Labour: 16% (-1)
    🟠 Lib Dems: 12% (-1)

    Changes w/May 20
    FON massively overrate the Greens
    Although weren't they nearest on Gorton & Denton?

    Did they not finish 2nd on implied vote share in LE2026

    Are we saying Sir John Curtice is a ZP Fan
    I thought they got the locals very wrong
    Tbf the two major psephological groups sifting the results couldn't decide whether the Greens came second or fifth on NEV.
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