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Kemi Badenoch has made the Tory Party more the party of Remain than Leave – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,950
    edited May 26
    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT:

    I see the May temperature has reached 35 degrees in London. Commisserations to those in the capital.

    There doesn't seem to have been much comment on the previous record - which has now been topped - was 32.8C, which was set in 1922 and 1944. What was the excuse for the bonkers heat in those years if not climate change?

    Who'll be the first candidate in Makerfield to cry "climate hoax!"?

    Do you really think a couple of hot days proves climate change is true? I think it's true, but not because of this.
    It's further evidence, not proof.
    No, 2 or 3 hot days isn't further evidence of anything.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    AnneJGP said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If Restore is splitting the Reform vote it does slightly increase the chances Burnham might call an early election. Helluva gamble though.

    Nope, Burnham was in the cabinet when Gordon Brown thought about a snap election, heck he was even mentioned in that seminal article

    We cannot be killed

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'


    Let’s be clear: this is a mad one. You won’t have heard it anywhere else, but you can take it from me. At the age of 38, this is my 17th consecutive Labour Party conference, and I’ve never been to one quite like this.

    It’s in the nature of collective hysteria that no single act can be adduced to prove its existence. But there is a fin de siecle, self-destructive, decadent craziness about Conference 2007. Somewhere in the wads of twenty somethings and thirtywouldbes jamming the chintzy Bournemouth bars long after they’re normally silent lurks the jitterbugging desperation of the Twenties before the Crash, Berlin between the wars, London as Imperial Glory died with its queen. The collective psyche of this group of individuals who’ve never had it so good has rarely been so uncertain.

    This is not a columnar conceit. I do not really have a thesis; no point to prove. I can only tentatively explain this atmosphere. But nor am I wrong. This mood is as real as the grief in the church. I am simply reporting what is here.

    Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906.

    This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

    That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready./i>

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    Never fails to make me LOL.
    This is not a columnar conceit. I do not really have a thesis; no point to prove. I can only tentatively explain this atmosphere. But nor am I wrong. This mood is as real as the grief in the church. I am simply reporting what is here

    Should be in the dictionary next to hubris and self-deception. I know hindsight is 20:20, but come on.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,681

    Hmmm... lots of thunder around the southern half of the UK at the mo.

    https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;ts=0;z=7;y=50.903;x=-1.6058;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

    Three fine days and a thunderstorm.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605

    kinabalu said:

    I'm surprised as many as 1 in 6 Reformies voted Remain. That slightly cuts across my take that Farage's pool is the voter coalition that delivered us Brexit and Boris. Still, it mainly is.

    False “recall” of past votes is a thing. Which pollsters have previously noted.
    Yes, one of those things common sense might suggest people would not get wrong, or would have no reason to lie about, yet they do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605

    AnneJGP said:

    Nigelb said:

    A sensible comment from Hodges.

    This is the incredible thing. Restore are literally running the Reform playbook page by page. And Reform are acting like they've never seen it before.
    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2059179790553223629

    It's interesting that Lowe is succeeding with Restore where every other person who fell out with Farage failed.
    Actually I find Mr Lowe quite impressive as a person, but that may make him quite dangerous too.
    He has an avuncular style, and speaks jolly clearly and well, in an even-tempered manner, and sounds totally reasonable as he's not at all shouty.
    This kind of thing was one reason I thought Starmer might end up being transformative and even radical - because he has such a boring presentation that people would not think of it as radical.

    Whereas with Corbyn even though his manner was actually quite placid and pleasant most of the time, had this reputation for being fringe and radical, so anything he proposed would be viewed in that context.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    kle4 said:

    AnneJGP said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If Restore is splitting the Reform vote it does slightly increase the chances Burnham might call an early election. Helluva gamble though.

    Nope, Burnham was in the cabinet when Gordon Brown thought about a snap election, heck he was even mentioned in that seminal article

    We cannot be killed

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'


    Let’s be clear: this is a mad one. You won’t have heard it anywhere else, but you can take it from me. At the age of 38, this is my 17th consecutive Labour Party conference, and I’ve never been to one quite like this.

    It’s in the nature of collective hysteria that no single act can be adduced to prove its existence. But there is a fin de siecle, self-destructive, decadent craziness about Conference 2007. Somewhere in the wads of twenty somethings and thirtywouldbes jamming the chintzy Bournemouth bars long after they’re normally silent lurks the jitterbugging desperation of the Twenties before the Crash, Berlin between the wars, London as Imperial Glory died with its queen. The collective psyche of this group of individuals who’ve never had it so good has rarely been so uncertain.

    This is not a columnar conceit. I do not really have a thesis; no point to prove. I can only tentatively explain this atmosphere. But nor am I wrong. This mood is as real as the grief in the church. I am simply reporting what is here.

    Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906.

    This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

    That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready./i>

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    Never fails to make me LOL.
    This is not a columnar conceit. I do not really have a thesis; no point to prove. I can only tentatively explain this atmosphere. But nor am I wrong. This mood is as real as the grief in the church. I am simply reporting what is here

    Should be in the dictionary next to hubris and self-deception. I know hindsight is 20:20, but come on.
    OGH had a friend who bought Labour at £100 per seat when the spreads had Labour on 390 seats around that time.

    Ended up with a loss of nearly £14,000.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605

    kle4 said:

    AnneJGP said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If Restore is splitting the Reform vote it does slightly increase the chances Burnham might call an early election. Helluva gamble though.

    Nope, Burnham was in the cabinet when Gordon Brown thought about a snap election, heck he was even mentioned in that seminal article

    We cannot be killed

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'


    Let’s be clear: this is a mad one. You won’t have heard it anywhere else, but you can take it from me. At the age of 38, this is my 17th consecutive Labour Party conference, and I’ve never been to one quite like this.

    It’s in the nature of collective hysteria that no single act can be adduced to prove its existence. But there is a fin de siecle, self-destructive, decadent craziness about Conference 2007. Somewhere in the wads of twenty somethings and thirtywouldbes jamming the chintzy Bournemouth bars long after they’re normally silent lurks the jitterbugging desperation of the Twenties before the Crash, Berlin between the wars, London as Imperial Glory died with its queen. The collective psyche of this group of individuals who’ve never had it so good has rarely been so uncertain.

    This is not a columnar conceit. I do not really have a thesis; no point to prove. I can only tentatively explain this atmosphere. But nor am I wrong. This mood is as real as the grief in the church. I am simply reporting what is here.

    Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906.

    This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

    That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready./i>

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    Never fails to make me LOL.
    This is not a columnar conceit. I do not really have a thesis; no point to prove. I can only tentatively explain this atmosphere. But nor am I wrong. This mood is as real as the grief in the church. I am simply reporting what is here

    Should be in the dictionary next to hubris and self-deception. I know hindsight is 20:20, but come on.
    OGH had a friend who bought Labour at £100 per seat when the spreads had Labour on 390 seats around that time.

    Ended up with a loss of nearly £14,000.
    I hope that friend was a millionaire.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,276

    Bridget Phillipson
    @bphillipsonMP
    ·
    4h
    Thanks to the efforts of this Labour government, families are saving an average of £8,000 on their childcare hours.

    But I know too many parents are still being stung by 'top up fees'. It's not acceptable.

    https://x.com/bphillipsonMP/status/2059261686947758082

    ===

    Wait until she finds out what happens in adult social care!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    AnneJGP said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If Restore is splitting the Reform vote it does slightly increase the chances Burnham might call an early election. Helluva gamble though.

    Nope, Burnham was in the cabinet when Gordon Brown thought about a snap election, heck he was even mentioned in that seminal article

    We cannot be killed

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'


    Let’s be clear: this is a mad one. You won’t have heard it anywhere else, but you can take it from me. At the age of 38, this is my 17th consecutive Labour Party conference, and I’ve never been to one quite like this.

    It’s in the nature of collective hysteria that no single act can be adduced to prove its existence. But there is a fin de siecle, self-destructive, decadent craziness about Conference 2007. Somewhere in the wads of twenty somethings and thirtywouldbes jamming the chintzy Bournemouth bars long after they’re normally silent lurks the jitterbugging desperation of the Twenties before the Crash, Berlin between the wars, London as Imperial Glory died with its queen. The collective psyche of this group of individuals who’ve never had it so good has rarely been so uncertain.

    This is not a columnar conceit. I do not really have a thesis; no point to prove. I can only tentatively explain this atmosphere. But nor am I wrong. This mood is as real as the grief in the church. I am simply reporting what is here.

    Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906.

    This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

    That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready./i>

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    Never fails to make me LOL.
    This is not a columnar conceit. I do not really have a thesis; no point to prove. I can only tentatively explain this atmosphere. But nor am I wrong. This mood is as real as the grief in the church. I am simply reporting what is here

    Should be in the dictionary next to hubris and self-deception. I know hindsight is 20:20, but come on.
    OGH had a friend who bought Labour at £100 per seat when the spreads had Labour on 390 seats around that time.

    Ended up with a loss of nearly £14,000.
    I hope that friend was a millionaire.
    Nope, it's why we love the spreads.

    I remember when OGH and myself convinced each other the Tories were a sell at 398 seats a few days after Mrs May called her snap election.

    At one point I thought this is the worst bet I have ever made, turned out to be the most profitable bet OGH has ever made.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    Former Ferrari chairman Montezemolo tears the new electric Ferrari “Luce” apart:

    “I cannot say what I really think: I would harm Ferrari. We risk the destruction of a legend. So sorry. Take the Prancing Horse off. At least the Chinese won’t copy this car”


    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/2059280809903755452
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,444
    edited May 26
    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT:

    I see the May temperature has reached 35 degrees in London. Commisserations to those in the capital.

    There doesn't seem to have been much comment on the previous record - which has now been topped - was 32.8C, which was set in 1922 and 1944. What was the excuse for the bonkers heat in those years if not climate change?

    Who'll be the first candidate in Makerfield to cry "climate hoax!"?

    Do you really think a couple of hot days proves climate change is true? I think it's true, but not because of this.
    It's further evidence, not proof.
    No, 2 or 3 hot days isn't further evidence of anything.
    How about this then?:

    FPT:

    I see the May temperature has reached 35 degrees in London. Commisserations to those in the capital.

    There doesn't seem to have been much comment on the previous record - which has now been topped - was 32.8C, which was set in 1922 and 1944. What was the excuse for the bonkers heat in those years if not climate change?

    Who'll be the first candidate in Makerfield to cry "climate hoax!"?

    I assume you are being tongue-in-cheek but +2.2°C in 62 years is quite a jump which, unsurprisingly, supports climate change theories rather than undermines them.

    No UK monthly minimum temperature records have been set this century whereas 8 out of 12 maximum records have been.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,400
    AnneJGP said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If Restore is splitting the Reform vote it does slightly increase the chances Burnham might call an early election. Helluva gamble though.

    Given that Restore is such a new party, it seems unlikely that they could gear up quickly enough for an early election. So it would be unwise for Mr Burnham to rely on Restore splitting the Reform vote everywhere.
    Yes. Its a bit of a goldilocks strategy, wait for Restore to gear up but not too long.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,444
    edited May 26

    Former Ferrari chairman Montezemolo tears the new electric Ferrari “Luce” apart:

    I cannot say what I really think: I would harm Ferrari. We risk the destruction of a legend. So sorry. Take the Prancing Horse off. At least the Chinese won’t copy this car”


    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/2059280809903755452

    ...he says, harming Ferrari.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT:

    I see the May temperature has reached 35 degrees in London. Commisserations to those in the capital.

    There doesn't seem to have been much comment on the previous record - which has now been topped - was 32.8C, which was set in 1922 and 1944. What was the excuse for the bonkers heat in those years if not climate change?

    Who'll be the first candidate in Makerfield to cry "climate hoax!"?

    Do you really think a couple of hot days proves climate change is true? I think it's true, but not because of this.
    It's further evidence, not proof.
    No, 2 or 3 hot days isn't further evidence of anything.
    By itself.

    The question is those 2-3 hot days taken as part of the monthly/yearly/decade figures. And as far as I'm aware that does not look good.

    So 2-3 hot days can be evidence, if we are getting a lot more of them compared to before.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 8,069
    Last few holiday posts coming up..

    Friday May 8, Bias to Léon (yes, really) - 22.3 miles

    I realised that Biarritz was over sixty miles away, and I just had three days walking to go, so made sure of over twenty miles today

    I found a decently priced room right in the centre of Léon at a hotel called Le Fair Play. I decided to have a few drinks there and stay for dinner

    While I was having a couple of beers on the terrace, it went from a beautiful sunny evening, to a storm

    The rain started to fall heavily while I was still bathed in warm evening sunshine. A rainbow appeared over the square opposite me

    Then the lightning. I’d never seen a rainbow and lightning in the same view before

    I also never knew that the French word for lightning is éclair. And that’s where we get the name of the pastry from

    I had delicious squid to start, and rather disappointing steak for main. I had a lovely waitress who I didn’t bother complaining to about the steak. She brought me some really good wines to go with both courses. I don’t think that she charged me for all of them

    It was another dated hotel, but a very comfortable bed and a decent hot shower. I slept and scrubbed up well
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,276
    Ladbrokes Politics
    @LadPolitics
    Five days later, Labour are now favourites to win the most seats at the next General Election

    Labour - 13/8
    Reform UK - 7/4
    Conservatives - 9/2
    Restore Britain - 12/1
    Green Party - 16/1
    Liberal Democrats - 40/1
    200/1 bar

    https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/2059255390781468807
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,629

    Ladbrokes Politics
    @LadPolitics
    Five days later, Labour are now favourites to win the most seats at the next General Election

    Labour - 13/8
    Reform UK - 7/4
    Conservatives - 9/2
    Restore Britain - 12/1
    Green Party - 16/1
    Liberal Democrats - 40/1
    200/1 bar

    https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/2059255390781468807

    Restore above the Lib Dem’s and the Greens !!

    They’ll get 1 seat max.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 8,069
    edited May 26
    Saturday May 9, Léon to Hossegor - 20.6 miles

    I started quite fast, and had done more than ten miles before eleven. I stopped in a bar for a beer

    It was the fourth beer of the trip bought for me by strangers after they heard my French holiday motto. I’d seen that there were no towns for the next seven miles, so I decided to stock up on beers

    They only had 500ml cans, and I bought three. I decided to put one of them in my rucksack, to take the load off whichever shoulder I had my shopping bag over. I planned my beer drinking well, and went to open the rucksack can just before I arrived at the next town at two thirty; booking time

    I opened my rucksack and instantly saw that the beer can had burst. All of my clothes were soaked in beer. I found a place to stay in Hossegor that had a washing machine. It turned out to be a communal one that I had to pay for

    I needed to find 10€ in change to charge the machines. I went to the little local supermarket and bought stuff for dinner. I paid in cash, but they refused to give me extra change for my washing

    I walked into the town, and it was like Surfing Safari. Every other shop had some connection to surfing, and at least half of the men in the bars looked like surfers. I stopped in a bar, got my ten euros in cash and a pint of a lovely, but expensive IPA

    I got my washing done and cooked my dinner. Then decided to check on my flight. For some reason I’d assumed that I was stupidly flying home on Tuesday (before going back to work on Wednesday)

    I realised that I was sensibly flying home on Monday, but that meant that I didn’t have a day to spare at the end of the holiday, and would have to come straight home

    I then remembered that I did something even more stupid two years ago. I missed my flight from Biarritz, and had to rebook from Bordeaux the next day

    That day I walked from Biarritz to Bayonne to catch the train to Bordeaux. I only had to walk to Bayonne to complete the stage
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    Taz said:

    Ladbrokes Politics
    @LadPolitics
    Five days later, Labour are now favourites to win the most seats at the next General Election

    Labour - 13/8
    Reform UK - 7/4
    Conservatives - 9/2
    Restore Britain - 12/1
    Green Party - 16/1
    Liberal Democrats - 40/1
    200/1 bar

    https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/2059255390781468807

    Restore above the Lib Dem’s and the Greens !!

    They’ll get 1 seat max.
    I guess the theory is either they break through, in which case they suddenly open up to Reform level possibilities, or they get nothing.

    Worth noting how few Reform got in 2024 for how difficult a prospect that would actually be.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,276
    Daniel Holland
    @danhollandnews
    ·
    3h
    CONFIRMED: Liberal Democrats will run Newcastle City Council, with support of the Greens.

    Lib Dems will operate a minority administration, with the Greens providing votes under a confidence and supply agreement promising 'stability and co-operation'.

    https://x.com/danhollandnews
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314
    https://x.com/nytimes/status/2059329748266811539

    Breaking News: The Trump administration is moving forward with a plan to use plutonium from nuclear warheads to fuel power plants.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,400

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If Restore is splitting the Reform vote it does slightly increase the chances Burnham might call an early election. Helluva gamble though.

    Nope, Burnham was in the cabinet when Gordon Brown thought about a snap election, heck he was even mentioned in that seminal article

    We cannot be killed

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'


    Let’s be clear: this is a mad one. You won’t have heard it anywhere else, but you can take it from me. At the age of 38, this is my 17th consecutive Labour Party conference, and I’ve never been to one quite like this.

    It’s in the nature of collective hysteria that no single act can be adduced to prove its existence. But there is a fin de siecle, self-destructive, decadent craziness about Conference 2007. Somewhere in the wads of twenty somethings and thirtywouldbes jamming the chintzy Bournemouth bars long after they’re normally silent lurks the jitterbugging desperation of the Twenties before the Crash, Berlin between the wars, London as Imperial Glory died with its queen. The collective psyche of this group of individuals who’ve never had it so good has rarely been so uncertain.

    This is not a columnar conceit. I do not really have a thesis; no point to prove. I can only tentatively explain this atmosphere. But nor am I wrong. This mood is as real as the grief in the church. I am simply reporting what is here.

    Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906.

    This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

    That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready./i>

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    Shouldn't Brown have held that election? He might well have won and kept power longer?
    The ICM marginals poll had the Tories winning the most seats.

    I think at best Brown would have governed in coalition with the Lib Dems which would not have survived the Great Financial Crisis, I suspect that coalition would have ended by early 2009 and we'd seen an election in 2009 which would have put the Tories in power.
    We will never know but my guess is that Brown would have won as it was too early in the Cameron project for voters to trust him.

    And then he would have had a couple more years after the GFC for the economy to recover when fighting re-election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If Restore is splitting the Reform vote it does slightly increase the chances Burnham might call an early election. Helluva gamble though.

    Nope, Burnham was in the cabinet when Gordon Brown thought about a snap election, heck he was even mentioned in that seminal article

    We cannot be killed

    'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'


    Let’s be clear: this is a mad one. You won’t have heard it anywhere else, but you can take it from me. At the age of 38, this is my 17th consecutive Labour Party conference, and I’ve never been to one quite like this.

    It’s in the nature of collective hysteria that no single act can be adduced to prove its existence. But there is a fin de siecle, self-destructive, decadent craziness about Conference 2007. Somewhere in the wads of twenty somethings and thirtywouldbes jamming the chintzy Bournemouth bars long after they’re normally silent lurks the jitterbugging desperation of the Twenties before the Crash, Berlin between the wars, London as Imperial Glory died with its queen. The collective psyche of this group of individuals who’ve never had it so good has rarely been so uncertain.

    This is not a columnar conceit. I do not really have a thesis; no point to prove. I can only tentatively explain this atmosphere. But nor am I wrong. This mood is as real as the grief in the church. I am simply reporting what is here.

    Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906.

    This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.

    That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready./i>

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
    Shouldn't Brown have held that election? He might well have won and kept power longer?
    The ICM marginals poll had the Tories winning the most seats.

    I think at best Brown would have governed in coalition with the Lib Dems which would not have survived the Great Financial Crisis, I suspect that coalition would have ended by early 2009 and we'd seen an election in 2009 which would have put the Tories in power.
    We will never know but my guess is that Brown would have won as it was too early in the Cameron project for voters to trust him.

    And then he would have had a couple more years after the GFC for the economy to recover when fighting re-election.
    The election that never was when my loins were girded when it comes to political betting.

    I will remember 2007 so fondly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,276
    Europe is burning. It is still only May.



    Duncan Wingen
    @DuncanWingen

    Translated from Spanish
    Anyone who has even a minimal understanding of climatology will look at this map and find it outrageous: temperatures up to 10 or even 20 °C above average, and it's not an isolated day, it's entire weeks, but it's trendy on social media to opine about things one has no clue about.

    Extreme Temperatures Around The World
    @extremetemps
    Translated from Spanish
    and it's all of Western Central Europe, records already exceed 3000 and we'll go for more than 5000 including the re-broken ones
    monthly records have been broken by 7 degrees, some already beaten 4 times (and they'll go for 6 or 7 in a row in France).
    simply NOTHING in European history compares.
    NOTHING

    https://x.com/DuncanWingen/status/2058984365518946802

  • Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT:

    I see the May temperature has reached 35 degrees in London. Commisserations to those in the capital.

    There doesn't seem to have been much comment on the previous record - which has now been topped - was 32.8C, which was set in 1922 and 1944. What was the excuse for the bonkers heat in those years if not climate change?

    Who'll be the first candidate in Makerfield to cry "climate hoax!"?

    Do you really think a couple of hot days proves climate change is true? I think it's true, but not because of this.
    It's further evidence, not proof.
    No, 2 or 3 hot days isn't further evidence of anything.
    It's a data point. It has no meaning on its own, but further data points will show if there's a trend.

    A lot of the work needed to combat climate change, if it's actually happening, has real benefits in other ways. Renewable energy, electric cars, etc, all have considerable benefits beyond reducing CO2 levels. So we should do that stuff anyway.

    By time those changes have been fully made we'll have enough data to say conclusively if more work is needed.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,667
    edited May 26

    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT:

    I see the May temperature has reached 35 degrees in London. Commisserations to those in the capital.

    There doesn't seem to have been much comment on the previous record - which has now been topped - was 32.8C, which was set in 1922 and 1944. What was the excuse for the bonkers heat in those years if not climate change?

    Who'll be the first candidate in Makerfield to cry "climate hoax!"?

    Do you really think a couple of hot days proves climate change is true? I think it's true, but not because of this.
    It's further evidence, not proof.
    No, 2 or 3 hot days isn't further evidence of anything.
    It's a data point. It has no meaning on its own, but further data points will show if there's a trend.

    A lot of the work needed to combat climate change, if it's actually happening, has real benefits in other ways. Renewable energy, electric cars, etc, all have considerable benefits beyond reducing CO2 levels. So we should do that stuff anyway.

    By time those changes have been fully made we'll have enough data to say conclusively if more work is needed.
    "but further data points will show if there's a trend". This observation follows numerous others showing an incontrovertibe trend. In fact the salience of the recent datapoints at this moment is a hint of trend acceleration

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,228


    Monday, May 11. Bayonne to Bordeaux to Gatwick to home

    I was up early for a huge breakfast. The lovely lady from the evening before had told me that I could eat all that I wanted

    I had four or five sittings, all different breakfasts. I then checked out and strolled to the railway station. I hadn’t checked any train times; it was ten thirty and my flight wasn’t until three forty

    I got to the station at about twenty to eleven, and saw there was a Bordeaux train at just after eleven. I went to the ticket machine and selected my trip. It offered me a ticket for the one o’clock train

    I panicked a bit and headed for the ticket office. I still had fifteen minutes until the train and there were only four people in the queue to two desks

    It took thirteen minutes. I bought my ticket and learned that the one o’clock ticket would have been fine, and that I can still run when I need to

    I arrived on the platform at the same time as the Bordeaux train. I managed to find a seat on a really busy train

    At Bordeaux I went from train to tram. The airport tram arrived as I was buying my ticket. I accidentally bought a ten fare ticket

    The tram brought me to the airport an hour and a half before boarding. I headed into the terminal. As I went to stroll through the first barrier, a chap looked at my ticket and said “wrong terminal “

    Luckily it was a few hundred yards to the right terminal. I then got stuck in a rather large queue into security. It was all cheap flights back to parts of England. It was horrible to suddenly be among English voices for the first time in a month

    It turned out that the delay wasn’t Brexit related; the passport queue was the quickest of all

    I had to walk to the furthest away gate because it was an EasyJet flight. When I arrived there were still ten minutes to spare, and about thirty people in the boarding queue

    There was a bar with three people in the queue on the way. I wanted a beer; I joined the beer queue. The barman was one of the slowest I’ve ever seen. I had to dash to the boarding queue before I’d reached the front of the queue

    I got beer on the plane. The flight was fine, but I’m sure I’ve never been so close to the seat in front before

    At Gatwick I got to the train station, bought a ticket to Reading, and headed to the platform. I hadn’t looked at the times, the train came two minutes later

    When I got to Reading, I headed for the ticket machine. On my way there, I heard the description of my train arriving at platform three. I dashed again, and again arrived at the platform at the same time as the train

    On the way to Bedwyn I realised that the buses had finished. I called the taxi driver I’ve known for years to come and pick me up. He was having a day off and was a bit drunk, but he called a friend who came to get me

    We got to Marlborough ten minutes before Waitrose closed, so I got dinner

    4 or 5 different breakfasts! Are you a hobbit?
  • Ladbrokes Politics
    @LadPolitics
    Five days later, Labour are now favourites to win the most seats at the next General Election

    Labour - 13/8
    Reform UK - 7/4
    Conservatives - 9/2
    Restore Britain - 12/1
    Green Party - 16/1
    Liberal Democrats - 40/1
    200/1 bar

    https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/2059255390781468807

    Thanks @TheScreamingEagles
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,276

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    18m
    Reform seems to be making unnecessarily heavy weather of this. Surely the right pitch was "Vote Reform to get rid of Starmer" in May, & is "Vote Reform to not replace him with Burnham" now?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,667
    The label "Restore" is well chosen in opposition to "Reform". In my opinion most voters inclined to those parties want things to be better, as they used to be (in their minds), rather than to change the current state of things to something new and unspecified
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 67,168
    Andy_JS said:

    "Almost 1,000 migrants cross Channel over bank holiday"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy422k3z83vo

    As anticipated
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,629

    Europe is burning. It is still only May.



    Duncan Wingen
    @DuncanWingen

    Translated from Spanish
    Anyone who has even a minimal understanding of climatology will look at this map and find it outrageous: temperatures up to 10 or even 20 °C above average, and it's not an isolated day, it's entire weeks, but it's trendy on social media to opine about things one has no clue about.

    Extreme Temperatures Around The World
    @extremetemps
    Translated from Spanish
    and it's all of Western Central Europe, records already exceed 3000 and we'll go for more than 5000 including the re-broken ones
    monthly records have been broken by 7 degrees, some already beaten 4 times (and they'll go for 6 or 7 in a row in France).
    simply NOTHING in European history compares.
    NOTHING

    https://x.com/DuncanWingen/status/2058984365518946802

    In the words of Dave Angel, “the worlds burning but we’re not learning”
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,276
    They are rattled by God Wellington. Rattled i tell you...


    Nigel Farage MP

    @Nigel_Farage

    Cllr Rob Kenyon served his country. Now he’s fighting for its future. 🇬🇧

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2059312922761846846
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 67,168

    I’ve now walked nearly two thousand miles around France and Spain that is all connected

    I think that there’s a good chance that I’m the only living person to have walked my walk. Especially if walking the Camino de Santiago in reverse in twenty days is a factor

    Is it weird that I find this potential uniqueness enjoyable?

    Awesome achievement.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,393


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    18m
    Reform seems to be making unnecessarily heavy weather of this. Surely the right pitch was "Vote Reform to get rid of Starmer" in May, & is "Vote Reform to not replace him with Burnham" now?

    Being against Starmer is infinitely easier than being against Burnham.

    That may not be entirely fair, but that's politics.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 5,005

    I’ve now walked nearly two thousand miles around France and Spain that is all connected

    I think that there’s a good chance that I’m the only living person to have walked my walk. Especially if walking the Camino de Santiago in reverse in twenty days is a factor

    Is it weird that I find this potential uniqueness enjoyable?

    Two thousand miles is a double Proclaimers
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,667

    I’ve now walked nearly two thousand miles around France and Spain that is all connected

    I think that there’s a good chance that I’m the only living person to have walked my walk. Especially if walking the Camino de Santiago in reverse in twenty days is a factor

    Is it weird that I find this potential uniqueness enjoyable?

    Two thousand miles is a double Proclaimers
    Isn't it quadruple?

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 5,005
    geoffw said:

    I’ve now walked nearly two thousand miles around France and Spain that is all connected

    I think that there’s a good chance that I’m the only living person to have walked my walk. Especially if walking the Camino de Santiago in reverse in twenty days is a factor

    Is it weird that I find this potential uniqueness enjoyable?

    Two thousand miles is a double Proclaimers
    Isn't it quadruple?

    I suppose you're right! I was thinking of the "I would walk 500 miles and I would walk 500 more just to be the man who walked a thousand miles to fall down at your door", but yes, I suppose the quantum is 500!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923
    geoffw said:

    I’ve now walked nearly two thousand miles around France and Spain that is all connected

    I think that there’s a good chance that I’m the only living person to have walked my walk. Especially if walking the Camino de Santiago in reverse in twenty days is a factor

    Is it weird that I find this potential uniqueness enjoyable?

    Two thousand miles is a double Proclaimers
    Isn't it quadruple?

    No.
    500 miles ... and 500 more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923
    Best explanation for the new Ferrari, but it's still pants.

    My theory is that Ferrari hired Ive because wealth in China is almost purely from factory owners… and factory owners in China regard Jobs/Ive with the highest regard. Reverence even.
    Apple was a fundamental driver of China’s rise in manufacturing, and in turn, Jobs/Ive showed the world China was not just a maker of cheap rubber schlock.
    It is as close as you’ll get in China to a religious figurehead co-branding a product.

    https://x.com/gak_pdx/status/2059346912789381449
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,667
    Nigelb said:

    geoffw said:

    I’ve now walked nearly two thousand miles around France and Spain that is all connected

    I think that there’s a good chance that I’m the only living person to have walked my walk. Especially if walking the Camino de Santiago in reverse in twenty days is a factor

    Is it weird that I find this potential uniqueness enjoyable?

    Two thousand miles is a double Proclaimers
    Isn't it quadruple?

    No.
    500 miles ... and 500 more.
    Yes, solarflare is right. But well done Blanche whatever!

  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 1,007
    geoffw said:

    The label "Restore" is well chosen in opposition to "Reform". In my opinion most voters inclined to those parties want things to be better, as they used to be (in their minds), rather than to change the current state of things to something new and unspecified

    Though Restore doesn't have the benefit of every single politician across the spectrum saying the name of your party over and over, like Reform does.
  • It’s hard to be against Burnham when nobody (yet) actively hates him. Reform just look silly.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    edited May 26
    Geoff is right. The Claimers walked 1000 miles but the SI unit they invented is 500 which they walked two of.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,629
    edited May 26
    kinabalu said:

    Geoff is right. The Claimers walked 1000 miles but the SI unit they invented is 500 which they walked two of.

    Did they actually walk it or pledge to.

    I haven’t heard the song for yonks but don’t they say ‘I would walk 500 miles’ rather than ‘I have walked 500 miles’

    Obviously there’s another 500 on top.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    geoffw said:

    Nigelb said:

    geoffw said:

    I’ve now walked nearly two thousand miles around France and Spain that is all connected

    I think that there’s a good chance that I’m the only living person to have walked my walk. Especially if walking the Camino de Santiago in reverse in twenty days is a factor

    Is it weird that I find this potential uniqueness enjoyable?

    Two thousand miles is a double Proclaimers
    Isn't it quadruple?

    No.
    500 miles ... and 500 more.
    Yes, solarflare is right. But well done Blanche whatever!
    No, you're right. But it's not important. Let's not get sidetracked. Amazing from Blanche.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,667

    It’s hard to be against Burnham when nobody (yet) actively hates him. Reform just look silly.

    The Lab_burnum is in full bloom right now.

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 5,005
    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Nigelb said:

    geoffw said:

    I’ve now walked nearly two thousand miles around France and Spain that is all connected

    I think that there’s a good chance that I’m the only living person to have walked my walk. Especially if walking the Camino de Santiago in reverse in twenty days is a factor

    Is it weird that I find this potential uniqueness enjoyable?

    Two thousand miles is a double Proclaimers
    Isn't it quadruple?

    No.
    500 miles ... and 500 more.
    Yes, solarflare is right. But well done Blanche whatever!
    No, you're right. But it's not important. Let's not get sidetracked. Amazing from Blanche.
    Agreed. It's a heck of an achievement to walk that distance!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    18m
    Reform seems to be making unnecessarily heavy weather of this. Surely the right pitch was "Vote Reform to get rid of Starmer" in May, & is "Vote Reform to not replace him with Burnham" now?

    That's a bit of a mouthful.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,571

    Andy_JS said:

    "Almost 1,000 migrants cross Channel over bank holiday"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy422k3z83vo

    As anticipated
    Woyld have been 600 a day last year
  • MattWMattW Posts: 34,040
    A fascinating extended conversation of polling of 6000 Gen Z for The Rest is Politics:

    https://youtu.be/YEnO4dVLTFI?t=1791
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Geoff is right. The Claimers walked 1000 miles but the SI unit they invented is 500 which they walked two of.

    Did they actually walk it or pledge to.

    I haven’t heard the song for yonks but don’t they say ‘I would walk 500 miles’ rather than ‘I have walked 500 miles’

    Obviously there’s another 500 on top.
    No, good point. It's just them trying to impress a girl. You'd like to think they did it but there was no update or follow up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,528
    Brixian59 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Almost 1,000 migrants cross Channel over bank holiday"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy422k3z83vo

    As anticipated
    Woyld have been 600 a day last year
    Yes, 2026 is the second lowest of the last 5 years to date, with 2023 lower by 1000 at May 25th.

    https://migranttracker.uk/

    While weather obviously makes a difference it does tend to average out over the months.

    There are a number of initiatives working with Europe going on:

    BBC News - UK sending sniffer dogs to intercept small boat parts in Bulgaria - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8xwyv8qx4wo?app-referrer=deep-link

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/16/uk-and-france-extend-one-in-one-out-small-boats-pilot-scheme-until-october?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/71525/belgium-warns-of-rising-irregular-beach-departures-as-migrant-crossings-to-uk-shift-away-from-france



  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,703
    @edcmpbl

    Tell you what it must have been class if Peter Murrell got your name in the SNP secret Santa
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    edited May 26


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    18m
    Reform seems to be making unnecessarily heavy weather of this. Surely the right pitch was "Vote Reform to get rid of Starmer" in May, & is "Vote Reform to not replace him with Burnham" now?

    Being against Starmer is infinitely easier than being against Burnham.

    That may not be entirely fair, but that's politics.
    I've got a feeling a lot of ordinary not political people in ordinary not political places will miss him when he's gone.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 34,040
    edited May 26
    MattW said:

    A fascinating extended conversation of polling of 6000 Gen Z for The Rest is Politics:

    https://youtu.be/YEnO4dVLTFI?t=1791

    (Edit: I think that is members only.)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 34,040

    AnneJGP said:

    Nigelb said:

    A sensible comment from Hodges.

    This is the incredible thing. Restore are literally running the Reform playbook page by page. And Reform are acting like they've never seen it before.
    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2059179790553223629

    It's interesting that Lowe is succeeding with Restore where every other person who fell out with Farage failed.
    Actually I find Mr Lowe quite impressive as a person, but that may make him quite dangerous too.
    He has an avuncular style, and speaks jolly clearly and well, in an even-tempered manner, and sounds totally reasonable as he's not at all shouty.

    However, what he actually says, i.e. the words, are those of a racist neo-fascist. So I think that counts for more.
    He's what Alan Clark pretended he wanted to be when he was drunk.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923
    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Geoff is right. The Claimers walked 1000 miles but the SI unit they invented is 500 which they walked two of.

    Did they actually walk it or pledge to.

    I haven’t heard the song for yonks but don’t they say ‘I would walk 500 miles’ rather than ‘I have walked 500 miles’

    Obviously there’s another 500 on top.
    No, good point. It's just them trying to impress a girl. You'd like to think they did it but there was no update or follow up.
    They were pretty vehement about it, TBF.
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 290
    geoffw said:

    The label "Restore" is well chosen in opposition to "Reform". In my opinion most voters inclined to those parties want things to be better, as they used to be (in their minds), rather than to change the current state of things to something new and unspecified



    In that 'better past', Makerfield was a very safe perma-Labour seat that nobody was particularly fussed about. As a Tory, I'd be fine with that, secure in the knowledge that there were equally safe Conservative seats, quietly and uncontentiously existing in the Southern shires. That was the world we knew. And, yes, in many ways, it was a better reality to inhabit than what we have now.

    Which begs the question: are either of these Johnny-come-lately parties actually serious about trying to recreate the better times, or are they trying to appeal to voter nostalgia out of hypocritical self-interest?
  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 564

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Nigelb said:

    geoffw said:

    I’ve now walked nearly two thousand miles around France and Spain that is all connected

    I think that there’s a good chance that I’m the only living person to have walked my walk. Especially if walking the Camino de Santiago in reverse in twenty days is a factor

    Is it weird that I find this potential uniqueness enjoyable?

    Two thousand miles is a double Proclaimers
    Isn't it quadruple?

    No.
    500 miles ... and 500 more.
    Yes, solarflare is right. But well done Blanche whatever!
    No, you're right. But it's not important. Let's not get sidetracked. Amazing from Blanche.
    Agreed. It's a heck of an achievement to walk that distance!
    Proper walk that. I’ve a mate that did Geneva to Santiago to Seville. In one go on her own.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Geoff is right. The Claimers walked 1000 miles but the SI unit they invented is 500 which they walked two of.

    Did they actually walk it or pledge to.

    I haven’t heard the song for yonks but don’t they say ‘I would walk 500 miles’ rather than ‘I have walked 500 miles’

    Obviously there’s another 500 on top.
    No, good point. It's just them trying to impress a girl. You'd like to think they did it but there was no update or follow up.
    I grew up in Fife and there was nobody walking 500 miles let alone 500 more. .
    Of course not.
    The ones who did were ... hundreds of miles away.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,438
    KnightOut said:

    geoffw said:

    The label "Restore" is well chosen in opposition to "Reform". In my opinion most voters inclined to those parties want things to be better, as they used to be (in their minds), rather than to change the current state of things to something new and unspecified



    In that 'better past', Makerfield was a very safe perma-Labour seat that nobody was particularly fussed about. As a Tory, I'd be fine with that, secure in the knowledge that there were equally safe Conservative seats, quietly and uncontentiously existing in the Southern shires. That was the world we knew. And, yes, in many ways, it was a better reality to inhabit than what we have now.

    Which begs the question: are either of these Johnny-come-lately parties actually serious about trying to recreate the better times, or are they trying to appeal to voter nostalgia out of hypocritical self-interest?
    The mistake here is to assume that both are not possible - that they are both serious about trying to recreate the past and are not capable, at the same time of hypocritical self interest.

    Something that various politicians and big Wheels going off the deep end should have taught us - there isn’t a Cynical Elite where everyone is a razor sharp con artist playing the world like a fiddle. They are just like us. Often even more vulnerable to getting bullshit between the ears.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923
    Tell you what it must have been class if Peter Murrell got your name in the SNP secret Santa
    https://x.com/edcmpbl/status/2059328439207768276
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 8,069
    Can I learn to write well enough that I could sell my walk stories?

    That would be my favourite job

    I could walk another two thousand miles in the next year if I could afford it
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,687


    Monday, May 11. Bayonne to Bordeaux to Gatwick to home

    I was up early for a huge breakfast. The lovely lady from the evening before had told me that I could eat all that I wanted

    I had four or five sittings, all different breakfasts. I then checked out and strolled to the railway station. I hadn’t checked any train times; it was ten thirty and my flight wasn’t until three forty

    I got to the station at about twenty to eleven, and saw there was a Bordeaux train at just after eleven. I went to the ticket machine and selected my trip. It offered me a ticket for the one o’clock train

    I panicked a bit and headed for the ticket office. I still had fifteen minutes until the train and there were only four people in the queue to two desks

    It took thirteen minutes. I bought my ticket and learned that the one o’clock ticket would have been fine, and that I can still run when I need to

    I arrived on the platform at the same time as the Bordeaux train. I managed to find a seat on a really busy train

    At Bordeaux I went from train to tram. The airport tram arrived as I was buying my ticket. I accidentally bought a ten fare ticket

    The tram brought me to the airport an hour and a half before boarding. I headed into the terminal. As I went to stroll through the first barrier, a chap looked at my ticket and said “wrong terminal “

    Luckily it was a few hundred yards to the right terminal. I then got stuck in a rather large queue into security. It was all cheap flights back to parts of England. It was horrible to suddenly be among English voices for the first time in a month

    It turned out that the delay wasn’t Brexit related; the passport queue was the quickest of all

    I had to walk to the furthest away gate because it was an EasyJet flight. When I arrived there were still ten minutes to spare, and about thirty people in the boarding queue

    There was a bar with three people in the queue on the way. I wanted a beer; I joined the beer queue. The barman was one of the slowest I’ve ever seen. I had to dash to the boarding queue before I’d reached the front of the queue

    I got beer on the plane. The flight was fine, but I’m sure I’ve never been so close to the seat in front before

    At Gatwick I got to the train station, bought a ticket to Reading, and headed to the platform. I hadn’t looked at the times, the train came two minutes later

    When I got to Reading, I headed for the ticket machine. On my way there, I heard the description of my train arriving at platform three. I dashed again, and again arrived at the platform at the same time as the train

    On the way to Bedwyn I realised that the buses had finished. I called the taxi driver I’ve known for years to come and pick me up. He was having a day off and was a bit drunk, but he called a friend who came to get me

    We got to Marlborough ten minutes before Waitrose closed, so I got dinner

    4 or 5 different breakfasts! Are you a hobbit?
    Plates I presume!

    (Hotel this last weekend: plate of fried breakfast and tea; cereal; toast and marmalade and tea; coffee and croissants; second coffee taken back to the room. Lunch bill £0.)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,335
    @TSE (the quote function is not working BTW) -

    "Carol Vorderman's poo pipe"

    Dare I ask?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,327
    More evidence emerging of the views of the vile abomination who happens to be the Reform candidate in a forthcoming byelection:

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/makerfield-reform-candidate-robert-kenyon-34013441

    "Now further historical social media posts apparently made by Coun Kenyon have been highlighted by the campaign group Hope Not Hate, which discovered two X accounts linked to the Reform candidate, one of which had been suspended by the platform and the other deleted.

    In reply to one poster on X who in January 2022 shared a photograph of then Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his wife Carrie, the @robkenyon1 account said: "Lets be honest he's batting, so why would an attractive female want with someone in a high political position? Must be hung like a donkey."

    In one deleted post on X, @robkenyon1 said: "Next door neighbour said 'Little blowy today eh?' I said to her 'The Mrs is home in 20mins so ok if you're quick'."

    Elsewhere the account seemed to cast doubt on climate change, calling it a 'middle class problem' in one 2021 post and in another asking if school children would be taught 'about the ice age and that the world has been getting warmer since then'.

    And in reply to another post in April 2020 during lockdown which said billionaire businessmen Richard Branson, Philip Green and Joe Lewis had been 'bailed out by taxpayer money to support their workers', @robkenyon1 said: "Hang all 3." "

  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 564
    Climate change is going to land hard every year.

    The science has been repressed by caution and fear for decades. I’m not sure that we are going to make it.

    :(

    It’s bizarre, I bought a car with a large engine in 87 thinking that no responsible government would allow 2 litre cars in the 90s. So enjoy one and move on.

    We and our future generations have been let down by our leaders so badly I wanna weep.

    Just gotta keep buggering on.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,687
    edited May 26

    Can I learn to write well enough that I could sell my walk stories?

    That would be my favourite job

    I could walk another two thousand miles in the next year if I could afford it

    Strap a GoPro to your chest and make long form youtube videos with the stories in the closed captions. Plenty of stuff like that on youtube.

    Probably better paid than books. Might feel more like a job though, and everyone you meet on your travels might judge you...
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568
    Cyclefree said:

    @TSE (the quote function is not working BTW) -

    "Carol Vorderman's poo pipe"

    Dare I ask?

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/reform-mp-defends-misogynistic-posts-makerfield-candidate-carol-vorderman-5HjdZch_2/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 34,040
    edited May 26

    Can I learn to write well enough that I could sell my walk stories?

    That would be my favourite job

    I could walk another two thousand miles in the next year if I could afford it

    I think there is a distinction between something like a Guide Book (say like Wainright), and something like a narrative (say Salt Path or Bill Bryson).

    If you are doing pilgrimage routes there is a market amongst the new "searching for spirituality" crowd, but it is easy to disaggregate and you need to pay attention to online presentation and eg GPS routes.

    TBH it could be a fun project, but could turn into a treadmill.

    I think you would need another string such as guiding groups - that market does exist.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    Cyclefree said:

    @TSE (the quote function is not working BTW) -

    "Carol Vorderman's poo pipe"

    Dare I ask?

    Carol Vorderman has demanded an apology from the Reform UK candidate in the upcoming Makerfield byelection for “disgusting comments” he made about her on social media in the past.

    The broadcaster and former Countdown numbers expert described Robert Kenyon, who Reform has backed to face Andy Burnham in next month’s vote, as a “cowardly man” for a series of offensive posts made by the Wigan councillor that have since been deleted, along with his account.

    Vorderman, who last week posted a video in which she described Kenyon as a misogynist who made “disgusting comments”, told the Daily Mirror on Tuesday that she wanted “an apology from Rob Kenyon, to me, and to all the other people he’s abused online”.

    In 2021, Kenyon responded to a social media post about Vorderman in which another user wrote: “My god I’d love to smell and lick your arsehole”, by saying: “He’s only saying what we’re all thinking”.

    Danny Kruger, who joined Reform last September, defended Kenyon’s comments, telling BBC Radio 4 on Monday that while they were “inappropriate”, they were not viewed as serious enough within the party for Kenyon to be pulled as their byelection candidate. Kruger said he was “not going to judge people for what are essentially regarded at the time and intended as private conversations”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/26/carol-vorderman-demands-apology-reform-candidate-robert-kenyon
  • I think Reform is only “up” as long as Labour is down and I’ve thought this for a while.

    Burnham will look like the new thing in town at least for a while.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,335
    Ok - thanks @TSE and @eek.

    Vile stuff.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568
    Cyclefree said:

    Ok - thanks @TSE and @eek.

    Vile stuff.

    You were expecting anything else from a Reform candidate?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,856
    MattW said:

    Can I learn to write well enough that I could sell my walk stories?

    That would be my favourite job

    I could walk another two thousand miles in the next year if I could afford it

    I think there is a distinction between something like a Guide Book (say like Wainright), and something like a narrative (say Salt Path or Bill Bryson).

    If you are doing pilgrimage routes there is a market amongst the new "searching for spirituality" crowd, but it is easy to disaggregate and you need to pay attention to online presentation and eg GPS routes.

    TBH it could be a fun project, but could turn into a treadmill.

    I think you would need another string such as guiding groups - that market does exist.
    Salt path? You mean a fiction?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 34,040
    edited May 26

    Cyclefree said:

    @TSE (the quote function is not working BTW) -

    "Carol Vorderman's poo pipe"

    Dare I ask?

    Carol Vorderman has demanded an apology from the Reform UK candidate in the upcoming Makerfield byelection for “disgusting comments” he made about her on social media in the past.

    The broadcaster and former Countdown numbers expert described Robert Kenyon, who Reform has backed to face Andy Burnham in next month’s vote, as a “cowardly man” for a series of offensive posts made by the Wigan councillor that have since been deleted, along with his account.

    Vorderman, who last week posted a video in which she described Kenyon as a misogynist who made “disgusting comments”, told the Daily Mirror on Tuesday that she wanted “an apology from Rob Kenyon, to me, and to all the other people he’s abused online”.

    In 2021, Kenyon responded to a social media post about Vorderman in which another user wrote: “My god I’d love to smell and lick your arsehole”, by saying: “He’s only saying what we’re all thinking”.

    Danny Kruger, who joined Reform last September, defended Kenyon’s comments, telling BBC Radio 4 on Monday that while they were “inappropriate”, they were not viewed as serious enough within the party for Kenyon to be pulled as their byelection candidate. Kruger said he was “not going to judge people for what are essentially regarded at the time and intended as private conversations”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/26/carol-vorderman-demands-apology-reform-candidate-robert-kenyon
    They are really walking the line on the "private conversations" and "private citizen at the time" and so on in some cases, as some of the stuff for some of the Councillors is very recent.

    One of the troubled Reform Councillors, who is I think not yet defenestrated but possibly in the queue, is actually called Rimmer.

    (This may be Too Much Information.)
  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 564

    Can I learn to write well enough that I could sell my walk stories?

    That would be my favourite job

    I could walk another two thousand miles in the next year if I could afford it

    Social media tourism aimed at people that are mobility challenged might collect a lot of followers. It would be hard work though.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,393

    More evidence emerging of the views of the vile abomination who happens to be the Reform candidate in a forthcoming byelection:

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/makerfield-reform-candidate-robert-kenyon-34013441

    "Now further historical social media posts apparently made by Coun Kenyon have been highlighted by the campaign group Hope Not Hate, which discovered two X accounts linked to the Reform candidate, one of which had been suspended by the platform and the other deleted.

    In reply to one poster on X who in January 2022 shared a photograph of then Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his wife Carrie, the @robkenyon1 account said: "Lets be honest he's batting, so why would an attractive female want with someone in a high political position? Must be hung like a donkey."

    In one deleted post on X, @robkenyon1 said: "Next door neighbour said 'Little blowy today eh?' I said to her 'The Mrs is home in 20mins so ok if you're quick'."

    Elsewhere the account seemed to cast doubt on climate change, calling it a 'middle class problem' in one 2021 post and in another asking if school children would be taught 'about the ice age and that the world has been getting warmer since then'.

    And in reply to another post in April 2020 during lockdown which said billionaire businessmen Richard Branson, Philip Green and Joe Lewis had been 'bailed out by taxpayer money to support their workers', @robkenyon1 said: "Hang all 3." "

    And the nominations deadline was teatime today.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534
    Using Krugers logic any Reform candidate can say absolutely anything they like regardless of how offensive and it was and just use the excuse it was a private conversation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    Cyclefree said:

    Ok - thanks @TSE and @eek.

    Vile stuff.

    You see Reform are all about protecting are (sic) women and children which leads to this.

    One in five people arrested over 2024 riots have since been reported for domestic abuse

    Exclusive: Police data shows 21% of the 949 people detained in England and Northern Ireland were later accused of violence against intimate partner


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/26/one-in-five-people-arrested-over-2024-riots-have-since-been-reported-for-domestic-abuse
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568
    edited May 26

    Cyclefree said:

    Ok - thanks @TSE and @eek.

    Vile stuff.

    You see Reform are all about protecting are (sic) women and children which leads to this.

    One in five people arrested over 2024 riots have since been reported for domestic abuse

    Exclusive: Police data shows 21% of the 949 people detained in England and Northern Ireland were later accused of violence against intimate partner


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/26/one-in-five-people-arrested-over-2024-riots-have-since-been-reported-for-domestic-abuse
    On the other hand @BatteryCorrectHorse will love Reform - they've announced they will fire 450 planners - which is almost identical to the number of planners employed by the Planning Inspectorate.

    Edit and 5 more than are employed throughout the rest of the civil service including formulating planning policies and checking local plans.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,335
    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ok - thanks @TSE and @eek.

    Vile stuff.

    You were expecting anything else from a Reform candidate?
    It was that phrase and Danny Kruger which caught my eye.

    I dislike Farage and all his works so pay him as little attention as possible.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,542

    kinabalu said:

    I'm surprised as many as 1 in 6 Reformies voted Remain. That slightly cuts across my take that Farage's pool is the voter coalition that delivered us Brexit and Boris. Still, it mainly is.

    False “recall” of past votes is a thing. Which pollsters have previously noted.
    Famously Kennedy who won one of the closest elections ever against Nixon in 1960. By 1963 a large majority "recalled" voting for Kennedy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314
    https://x.com/bnhwalker/status/2059348227095138374

    Writeup on (so far) the biggest surprise of the activist's experience in Makerfield: the presence of Restore on the doorstep

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2026/05/will-restore-stop-reform-winning-in-makerfield
  • MattWMattW Posts: 34,040
    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ok - thanks @TSE and @eek.

    Vile stuff.

    You see Reform are all about protecting are (sic) women and children which leads to this.

    One in five people arrested over 2024 riots have since been reported for domestic abuse

    Exclusive: Police data shows 21% of the 949 people detained in England and Northern Ireland were later accused of violence against intimate partner


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/26/one-in-five-people-arrested-over-2024-riots-have-since-been-reported-for-domestic-abuse
    On the other hand @BatteryCorrectHorse will love Reform - they've announced they will fire 450 planners - which is almost identical to the number of planners employed by the Planning Inspectorate.

    Edit and 5 more than are employed throughout the rest of the civil service including formulating planning policies and checking local plans.
    Let's hope they don't take us back to rotary, wired telephones !
  • Why are some forum accounts still allowed to be private @TheScreamingEagles?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 34,040
    edited May 26
    Cyclefree said:

    eek said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ok - thanks @TSE and @eek.

    Vile stuff.

    You were expecting anything else from a Reform candidate?
    It was that phrase and Danny Kruger which caught my eye.

    I dislike Farage and all his works so pay him as little attention as possible.
    I've seen a little speculation that Danny Kruger could defect back to the Tories (I don't believe it for any time soon).

    He has a philosophy and National Conservative principles to which he is committed (whatever I think of them), so I'm not sure how well he fits in with some of the others.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,335

    Cyclefree said:

    Ok - thanks @TSE and @eek.

    Vile stuff.

    You see Reform are all about protecting are (sic) women and children which leads to this.

    One in five people arrested over 2024 riots have since been reported for domestic abuse

    Exclusive: Police data shows 21% of the 949 people detained in England and Northern Ireland were later accused of violence against intimate partner


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/26/one-in-five-people-arrested-over-2024-riots-have-since-been-reported-for-domestic-abuse
    Violent men are very often violent in a domestic setting.

    Joan Smith has written a whole book - Home Grown - about how so many terrorists, US gun killers and the like have a history of domestic violence and often embark on violence against the women closest to them before embarking on their more public sprees of violence. It's not though something which can only be laid at the door of those of any particular political persuasion, as you seem to imply. It applies to Islamist terrorists, left-wing terrorists, right-wing ones, mass murderers etc. The common factor is men and domestic violence against women, which is overlooked and not dealt with.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887

    I think Reform is only “up” as long as Labour is down and I’ve thought this for a while.

    Burnham will look like the new thing in town at least for a while.

    A very short while.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 34,040
    Oleg Gordievsky has died.

    The Telegraph has a piece. Full article link:

    Obit: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/354360870f3d19ba
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,528
    MattW said:

    Cyclefree said:

    @TSE (the quote function is not working BTW) -

    "Carol Vorderman's poo pipe"

    Dare I ask?

    Carol Vorderman has demanded an apology from the Reform UK candidate in the upcoming Makerfield byelection for “disgusting comments” he made about her on social media in the past.

    The broadcaster and former Countdown numbers expert described Robert Kenyon, who Reform has backed to face Andy Burnham in next month’s vote, as a “cowardly man” for a series of offensive posts made by the Wigan councillor that have since been deleted, along with his account.

    Vorderman, who last week posted a video in which she described Kenyon as a misogynist who made “disgusting comments”, told the Daily Mirror on Tuesday that she wanted “an apology from Rob Kenyon, to me, and to all the other people he’s abused online”.

    In 2021, Kenyon responded to a social media post about Vorderman in which another user wrote: “My god I’d love to smell and lick your arsehole”, by saying: “He’s only saying what we’re all thinking”.

    Danny Kruger, who joined Reform last September, defended Kenyon’s comments, telling BBC Radio 4 on Monday that while they were “inappropriate”, they were not viewed as serious enough within the party for Kenyon to be pulled as their byelection candidate. Kruger said he was “not going to judge people for what are essentially regarded at the time and intended as private conversations”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/26/carol-vorderman-demands-apology-reform-candidate-robert-kenyon
    They are really walking the line on the "private conversations" and "private citizen at the time" and so on in some cases, as some of the stuff for some of the Councillors is very recent.

    One of the troubled Reform Councillors, who is I think not yet defenestrated but possibly in the queue, is actually called Rimmer.

    (This may be Too Much Information.)
    I would think it quite hard to sustain the argument that Facebook and Twitter posts as "private conversations". By its very nature Social Media is public.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314
    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/2059357340369903776

    If Iran surrenders, admits their Navy is gone and resting at the bottom of the sea, and their Air Force is no longer with us, and if their entire Military walks out of Tehran, weapons dropped and hands held high, each shouting "I surrender, I surrender" while wildly waving the representative White Flag, and if their entire remaining Leadership signs all necessary
    "Documents of Surrender," and admit their defeat to the great power and force of the magnificent U.S.A., The Failing New York Times, The China Street Journal (WSJ!), Corrupt and now Irrelevant CNN, and all other members of the Fake News Media, will headline that Iran had a Masterful and Brilliant Victory over The United States of America, it wasn't even close. The Dumacrats and Media have totally lost their way.
    They have gone absolutely CRAZY!!! President DJT
This discussion has been closed.