Kemi Badenoch has made the Tory Party more the party of Remain than Leave – politicalbetting.com
Kemi Badenoch has made the Tory Party more the party of Remain than Leave – politicalbetting.com
It’ll be interesting how Kemi Badenoch develops policies to reflect the new reality, this is one poll but the changes from the Tory coalition from 2017 onwards.
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...time the temperature in the UK has reached 35 degC in May,
It's possibly time for Labour to embrace rejoin (and certainly for the LibDems), and any such thing would leave the Tories trying for an uncomfortable straddle. They can't compete with Farage as leavers (and would only alienate half their remaining support if they tried), but equally, they need to win back votes on the right.
And the only way you will get your own personal unicorn version of Brexit is to vote for Reform which is why those voting are shifting in that direction.
The question then becomes what happens if Reform win an election and fail to deliver (remember that delivering what people want is going to be impossible).
No other active members in our branch have outed themselves as Leave voters.
I see the May temperature has reached 35 degrees in London. Commisserations to those in the capital.
There doesn't seem to have been much comment on the previous record - which has now been topped - was 32.8C, which was set in 1922 and 1944. What was the excuse for the bonkers heat in those years if not climate change?
Who'll be the first candidate in Makerfield to cry "climate hoax!"?
Although she did expel Jenrick before he could jump ship.
The question to which the answer is unknown is how does Reform burn itself up or do we now have 2 right wing parties one far more militant than the previous single party..
Here in Italy, they are saying that July temperatures have arrived early, in May. But I was here in May 2022 when exactly the same thing happened.
No UK monthly minimum temperature records have been set this century whereas 8 out of 12 maximum records have been.
Most adults will remember the crashing disappointment when as a child a toy they've hassled for for months turns out to not be as great as they thought it would be..
There has always been “bonkers” heat, with the right synoptics. Very hot synoptic patterns don’t come around that often, though we did get close in 2005 and 2012. But since 1922 there has been roughly 1.5C of global warming. We just beat the previous record by 2.2C.
So even if the pattern was identical to 1922 we could point to a century of warming being responsible. But the pattern is not identical. It was more extreme in both 22 and 44.
The preponderance of extreme temperatures in recent years (last year was the hottest spring on record for example. The second hottest was 2024. The third hottest was 2017. Fourth hottest was 2020, and this spring will likely be in the top 3) is simply down to maths and the normal distribution. If you shift the mean up a degree or more you get a massive increase in frequency hot weather records and a massive decrease in frequency of cold weather records.
Look at a year by year record of the hottest temperature of the year to see this in action. 34C used to be rare, now it’s most years.
Well spotted! But I am expecting somebody to play the "there's always been bonkers weather!" card.
Rather than bonkers climate.
FIrst, thanks for the commisserations from all those in the provinces - we Londoners will have to make sure your tribute to the capital is doubled next year for your impertinence and condescension.
In all seriousness, this is July/August heat, not May heat and the thought of 40+ (or 100+ in old money) in July or August for several days isn't easy to contemplate. It'll happen one day - may be not this year, may be not next but it will happen and we're not prepared.
The 2019 Johnson GE winning coalition was made up of 75% of the 2016 LEAVE vote (roughly 36% of the electorate) and 20% of those who voted REMAIN (roughly 9,5%) but couldn't contemplate the idea of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.
The Conservatives polled 47% in England in that election - at the 2024 GE that was 26% and according to the current YouGov sub sample for England 19%.
That would confirm the thought the Conservative core is a mix of 2016 Leavers and Remainers and possibly in fairly equal shares which perhaps was more reflective of the Conservative vote than the members and especially the activists who seemed to be strongly pro-LEAVE.
I know on here even a decade on the 2016 Referendum is viewed as a defining political event but you could argue other events have played a not insignificant role in how politics has aligned or re-aligned subsequently.
Natural party of government!
Early June also looking relatively cool and wet this year. Just probably 1.5C less cool and wet than it would have been.
Cameron had to allow party members to campaign against him in a public vote and the only way he could do that was to call the party "neutral". He knew what would happen because he had seen what the 1975 Referendum had done to Wilson's Labour Party and set it on the road to the schism of 1981 and 18 years in opposition.
Winning the 2015 election must have seemed like the nightmare scenario and having to make the referendum an in/out question rather than a vote on revised terms of membership must have been the worst of all worlds and the defeat ten years ago next month a blessed relief.
Of course, you could equally argue Johnson reunited and created a New Conservative Party in 2019 but circumstances conspired against him and drove large elements of his coalition back to the waiting arms of Farage whose Reform Party isn't UKIP 2.0 but the Johnson Conservative Party Mark 2.0.
The problem with Britain’s infrastructure is not population growth. It’s chronic underinvestment.
Your analysis of China is nonsense. The plan in the 1970s was to slow the rate of population growth, not to shrink the population. It’s only just started shrinking now because the fertility rate has dropped much more than expected.
Alexander Velez-Green, a senior advisor and envoy for U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, briefed allies on plans during a confidential meeting last week at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels, with European officials reported to have been taken aback by the scale of the planned drawdown by the Trump Administration.
As part of the drawdown, the U.S. Armed Forces plans to commit much fewer assets to NATO’s pool of readily available forces in the case of a conflict, significantly reducing the number of deployable drones, fighter jets, aerial refueling aircraft, strategic bomber, as well as warships, submarines and other naval assets, with a roughly one-third cut in just its fighter-aircraft contribution to forces in Europe.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2059272111089135836
He preferred fannying around with Falstaff and Doll Tearsheet.
To the nation's detriment, but massively more so to his own standing.
Cameron's own failure (aided and abetted by the Europeans) left him having to defend the indefensible, a status quo which no one really wanted or supported.
His main concern was the unity of the Conservative Party and he held the party together through the vote but what happened after led to that party's demise.
At least a century, I'd imagine, if he'd somehow lived that long.
Edit: sorry Robert Kenyon. Scott Kenyon is sitting this one out.
To say that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice..."
On Tuesday and Thursday
Kemi is very much a Leaver
On Monday and Wednesday
On Friday she'll argue that she's not a Leaver or a Remainder, but deny she's ever said anything on the topic
Flip flop
Flio flop
But simple observation helps too. My daffodils come out a couple of weeks earlier than they used to. More of my frost sensitive plants survive each winter.
Last weeks report from the Climate Change Committee was widely ignored by our trivia obsessed media, and makes for sobering reading:
https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/a-well-adapted-uk/
This is the incredible thing. Restore are literally running the Reform playbook page by page. And Reform are acting like they've never seen it before.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2059179790553223629
Farage does have a unique talent of turning friends into arch-enemies. Well perhaps not entirely unique, but the SNP seem a distant second.
Given how much both made about Britain being a Christian country and wanting to fight antisemitism it's been soul destroying having to talk about Carol Vorderman's poo pipe, and trying to excuse Reform councillors with swastiskas and holocaust denial views.
Heart of stone.
Reform's biggest mistake looks like being the assumption that they couldn't be outflanked on the even further right.
After all it doesn't cost money to slightly change an algorithm so posts are hidden / promoted on X..
REMNANTS OF FORMER SYRIAN PRESIDENT ASSAD'S CHEMICAL WEAPONS PROGRAM RECOVERED, SYRIAN OFFICIAL
MORE THAN 70 ROCKETS AND AERIAL BOMBS USED FOR CHEMICAL WEAPONS RECOVERED - OFFICIAL
18 SUSPECTS FOR ALLEGED INVOLVEMENT IN PROGRAM ARRESTED - OFFICIAL
SARIN NERVE GAS INGREDIENTS USED BY ASSAD FORCES ALSO FOUND - OFFICIAL
Adam Hoffman has been released from jail for "good behavior."
Hoffman is the 49-year-old Waco, TX attorney who faced life without parole for repeatedly raping a young boy, until Texas AG Ken Paxton offered him 1 day in jail and no need to register as a sex offender. A judge increased his sentence to a whopping 60 days. He got out in 30 days.
https://x.com/QasimRashid/status/2059029444644462905
I can see Burnham targetting one then, I can't see one this year with petrol and energy prices as they currently are.
By 2028 we will be used to them...
We cannot be killed
'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority'
Let’s be clear: this is a mad one. You won’t have heard it anywhere else, but you can take it from me. At the age of 38, this is my 17th consecutive Labour Party conference, and I’ve never been to one quite like this.
It’s in the nature of collective hysteria that no single act can be adduced to prove its existence. But there is a fin de siecle, self-destructive, decadent craziness about Conference 2007. Somewhere in the wads of twenty somethings and thirtywouldbes jamming the chintzy Bournemouth bars long after they’re normally silent lurks the jitterbugging desperation of the Twenties before the Crash, Berlin between the wars, London as Imperial Glory died with its queen. The collective psyche of this group of individuals who’ve never had it so good has rarely been so uncertain.
This is not a columnar conceit. I do not really have a thesis; no point to prove. I can only tentatively explain this atmosphere. But nor am I wrong. This mood is as real as the grief in the church. I am simply reporting what is here.
Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906.
This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.
That is a frightening responsibility. The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. They never have been. Like latter day Pushkins drilled in the elite academy of Brownian blitzkrieg, they are bursting with their sense of destiny. It’s not the Milibands, the Ballses or the Burnhams who are unconsciously nervous. This is the moment for which they were created. They are ready.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/05/20/rcp85-climate-scenario-is-dead-good-riddance/
Southern bottlers, no heart for the fight.
Thuggish politics fronted by a rich, articulate old bloke in a suit is a novelty. Even Farage has an element of spivishness about him as a warning sign.
I think at best Brown would have governed in coalition with the Lib Dems which would not have survived the Great Financial Crisis, I suspect that coalition would have ended by early 2009 and we'd seen an election in 2009 which would have put the Tories in power.
https://x.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/2059302694506914267
What we are seeing though without doubt is a sustained average increase over a decade.
Here in Brixham we have Plymouth University Marine Biology Lab
They are mapping staggering general increases in sea temperatures onshore and offshore.
Fish species being caught by the day and medium size trawlers are changing more and more fish usually not seen in our waters
(Which is probably for the best. The last couple of years have been about the government taking the only realistic path, with terrible comms.)
Great to be out campaigning for Andy Burnham in Makerfield today.
Totally clear it’s going to be Andy or Reform who wins here.
Let’s get Andy into Parliament and show Farage that his reheated Thatcherism isn’t the change working people are crying out for.
https://x.com/RichardBurgon/status/2059319392786120764
However, what he actually says, i.e. the words, are those of a racist neo-fascist. So I think that counts for more.
https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;ts=0;z=7;y=50.903;x=-1.6058;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy422k3z83vo