Say hello to Chris Kennedy - Safeguarding Nurse, battle-tested Green Campaigner, Passionate Grassroots Visionary and your Green Party candidate for Makerfield 💚
I thought for a minute you were pointing out one the surprisingly large number of Green defenestrated Councillors since May 7th. It is 9-10, which is running higher as a percentage than known Ref UK defenestrati, which is a little under 20. Greens have a number in ineligible jobs, so there is a lot of inexperience in addition to past social media.
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
The other issue is the emigration. It’s in the tens of thousands of Brits, but they’re almost all higher-rate taxpayers heading for US, Commonwealth, Mid East…
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
I suspect it has come from the government planning for fallout of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
But it simply isn't going to work, food inflation is utterly unavoidable..
Indeed.
Within the next few months people will be experts in fertiliser production.
So I guess that the scenarios are looking very worrying? Also a great time to become the new PM for Burnham/Streeting/Rayner.
At the start of the pandemic remember how countries were fighting to secure PPE, now imagine that with food.
Worth remembering that roughly twice as many people (~2.1 million) emigrated from Ireland due to the Famine, as died due to it (~1 million), and this was in the mid-19th century.
It's reasonable to anticipate the largest migration of people in history as a result. Needless to say, that will have consequences.
Whilst I'm sure you're all correct, I'm somewhat confused as to why diesel is not currently £1236.78 per millilitre.
Are we still in the calm before the storm? Are our futures markets not functioning? Or are we just buying from Putin again?
Everyone is running down their inventories and strategic reserves in the hope that the Strait of Hormuz is open again before those run out.
On food I haven't seen the statistics on planting this spring, but when you see stories like India telling its farmers to halves their fertiliser use it seems obvious that there is a large problem incoming.
One of the issues with food is that there's a large lag between when a problem in the future becomes inevitable (because not enough crops have been planted or fertiliser used), and when that problem becomes obvious (when there's actually a food deficit following the harvest), and also in rectifying the problem (by growing more food again with restored supplies of fertiliser).
Yesterday at the GP the NHS National Data Opt-Out service was prominently featured in the rolling screen display. This allows us to opt out of our medical records being shared for research, and came in 2018, following on I assume from the various campaigns and conspiracy theories that were being made about privatisation around 2014-2016.
It's not something I have been opposed to ideologically, as more data leads to better research and is a GOOD THING (using Sellars & Yeatman categories). But we are now seeing Palantir developing a role, and the USA has law in place ("Cloud Act" 2018) which allows the Govt to instruct US companies to give them all data stored in the cloud, even if in foreign countries. The UK Govt restrictions against that are only contractual afaics.
I am having second thoughts, even though it undermines a common good. I do not trust the USA, and do not wish to help them in any way whatsoever until I know they are sane.
As someone engaged in health research using medical records*, opt-outs can be hugely damaging, in general, but also to those opting out. If the data of a group are missing, then any issues that need addressing in that group will go undetected and policy/treatments will favour those who did not opt out.
Worth noting that the palantir contract is for service delivery and not research (I think) so opting out won't keep your data out of their and the US government's mitts.
*Actually now in consented research and consent trumps the opt-outs, I think. Previously this had a very real impact on my work (I think - although the difficulty is you actually know very little about who opted out, so hard to tell)
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
How would you make this happen? Should I be worried? Do I need to pack my bags?
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Rates are falling substantially. Why do you think they'll level out here?
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
How would you make this happen? Should I be worried? Do I need to pack my bags?
No need to pack. Everything you need will be provided at the other end of your train journey.
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
I suspect it has come from the government planning for fallout of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
But it simply isn't going to work, food inflation is utterly unavoidable..
Indeed.
Within the next few months people will be experts in fertiliser production.
So I guess that the scenarios are looking very worrying? Also a great time to become the new PM for Burnham/Streeting/Rayner.
At the start of the pandemic remember how countries were fighting to secure PPE, now imagine that with food.
Worth remembering that roughly twice as many people (~2.1 million) emigrated from Ireland due to the Famine, as died due to it (~1 million), and this was in the mid-19th century.
It's reasonable to anticipate the largest migration of people in history as a result. Needless to say, that will have consequences.
Whilst I'm sure you're all correct, I'm somewhat confused as to why diesel is not currently £1236.78 per millilitre.
Are we still in the calm before the storm? Are our futures markets not functioning? Or are we just buying from Putin again?
Everyone is running down their inventories and strategic reserves in the hope that the Strait of Hormuz is open again before those run out.
On food I haven't seen the statistics on planting this spring, but when you see stories like India telling its farmers to halves their fertiliser use it seems obvious that there is a large problem incoming.
One of the issues with food is that there's a large lag between when a problem in the future becomes inevitable (because not enough crops have been planted or fertiliser used), and when that problem becomes obvious (when there's actually a food deficit following the harvest), and also in rectifying the problem (by growing more food again with restored supplies of fertiliser).
Ah so you're saying that if Hormuz reopened tomorrow it would be possible to restock by shipping more than normal, as well as meeting current demand, and so avoiding a supply crunch? I was under the impression that shipping times meant diesel running very low was already baked in.
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Rates are falling substantially. Why do you think they'll level out here?
Because the second derivative is much lower.
It's roughly halved. Didn't it roughly halve last time? If it halves again, it will already be below 100k. Your maths is wonky on either a multiplicative or additive scale.
I see Wes Streeting is proposing to match capital gains tax to income tax.
/If/ Labour allows inflation re-indexing of assets, so that the cost basis for capital gains tax is scaled with inflation then this is a sensible idea. If not, it will be the stupidist tax in the UK, even worse than stamp duty: A non-indexed high rate of CGT is a > 100% tax on long term gains & destroys private investment at a stroke, it’s an enormous incentive for the government to shadow tax assets by printing £ & makes incentivising employees through share options impossible.
Labour should, in fact, impose CGT at the sellers marginal income tax rate after inflation re-indexing & use the income to cut income taxes & reward work.
Failure to index the cost basis to inflation for the CGT calculation will destroy the economy: If you think we’ve got low growth now, wait till you see what happens when the real tax on capital gains is > 100% !
(Ironically, this represents a return to Tory orthodoxy: Nigel Lawson introduced almost exactly this system back in 1988 or so, I’m not sure why it was subsequently abandoned.)
Dan Neidle has a thread welcoming the proposal. And makes the Lawson point, too.
Dan Neidle's TPA outfit has published a very long document which I've not read but that's the headline.
There is a blatant "questionable call" (aka error) right at the start - surely Mr Farage's profession and employment is that of a political campaigner?
"It’s connected to Mr Farage’s historic and current political campaigning activity, and not to any trade, profession, employment or office that he carries on or holds."
This actually *beats* the Bowes projections, which I posted earlier, that many seemed sceptical of. We are on track for three years of negative net migration in the run up to the 2029 GE.
Burnham really needs to stick with what Mahmood is doing.
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
How would you make this happen? Should I be worried? Do I need to pack my bags?
Since Leon is gaily talking of deporting millions, then quite possibly.
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
The other issue is the emigration. It’s in the tens of thousands of Brits, but they’re almost all higher-rate taxpayers heading for US, Commonwealth, Mid East…
What's interesting is that emigration is mostly of young British people, and the increase in net emigration is driven by fewer of these young people returning to Britain after spending dinner time abroad. So it would seem that the housing crisis is a much more important factor than driving high-income taxpayers abroad.
Another factor is that a fair number of British nationals emigrating seem to be the children of earlier Polish immigrants who are returning to Poland due to the strength of the Polish economy.
This actually *beats* the Bowes projections, which I posted earlier, that many seemed sceptical of. We are on track for three years of negative net migration in the run up to the 2029 GE.
Burnham really needs to stick with what Mahmood is doing.
If we go into the next general election with negative net migration, Reform's policy will just look like a continuation of the status quo rather than a scary deviation from it.
One Russian paper says Russia's “on verge of recession” & warns of “a large-scale bank liquidity crisis.” After Putin & Xi failed to reach a deal on the 'Power of Siberia 2' pipeline, another paper writes: “Chinese media ignored the topic of the gas pipeline.”
Are they still stuck on they both want the pipeline but China has no interest in paying for it?
ETA scooped by sandpit!
China appears to be quite content buying up what almost no-one else wants to touch at the moment, at a significant discount to market prices.
Xi has Putin over a barrel, both figuratively and literally.
Every time I have been in Beijing, the Chinese make it quite clear that they have no interest in paying for a pipeline that could be used for the same kind of blackmail that Russia used against Europe.
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
I suspect it has come from the government planning for fallout of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
But it simply isn't going to work, food inflation is utterly unavoidable..
Indeed.
Within the next few months people will be experts in fertiliser production.
So I guess that the scenarios are looking very worrying? Also a great time to become the new PM for Burnham/Streeting/Rayner.
At the start of the pandemic remember how countries were fighting to secure PPE, now imagine that with food.
Worth remembering that roughly twice as many people (~2.1 million) emigrated from Ireland due to the Famine, as died due to it (~1 million), and this was in the mid-19th century.
It's reasonable to anticipate the largest migration of people in history as a result. Needless to say, that will have consequences.
Whilst I'm sure you're all correct, I'm somewhat confused as to why diesel is not currently £1236.78 per millilitre.
Are we still in the calm before the storm? Are our futures markets not functioning? Or are we just buying from Putin again?
Everyone is running down their inventories and strategic reserves in the hope that the Strait of Hormuz is open again before those run out.
On food I haven't seen the statistics on planting this spring, but when you see stories like India telling its farmers to halves their fertiliser use it seems obvious that there is a large problem incoming.
One of the issues with food is that there's a large lag between when a problem in the future becomes inevitable (because not enough crops have been planted or fertiliser used), and when that problem becomes obvious (when there's actually a food deficit following the harvest), and also in rectifying the problem (by growing more food again with restored supplies of fertiliser).
Ah so you're saying that if Hormuz reopened tomorrow it would be possible to restock by shipping more than normal, as well as meeting current demand, and so avoiding a supply crunch? I was under the impression that shipping times meant diesel running very low was already baked in.
The shipping times to various locations are measured in weeks. If you had a 100% open Hormuz *now*, it’s 2 months for the cargos to start arriving.
Then you have to refill the supply chains. Lots of stuff emptied or shut in.
So you have multiple months from restart to back to normal, built in.
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
Presumably it's inspired by Mamdani's idea of state-owned grocery stores - and therefore engineered lower prices - in New York
That particular story is going to be quite brilliant to watch.
It’s going to take two years to build (Wal-Mart can do a massive warehouse hypermarket in six months), is going to be staffed by Union staff on $40 an hour for a 35 hour week, time-and-a-half outside 9-5 and double time nights and weekends, has very little buying power, and is likely to be a massive target for shoplifting and looting, neither of which Mamdani currently sees as bad things.
It’s going to cost many millions and be a total failure. I know this because it’s been a total failure costing millions every time it’s been tried before.
Maybe, like trying communism, it’s going to be different this time……….
If Labour follow through on these insane new taxes, tax hikes, taxes on everything, then we will see capital flight on a new and unprecedented scale. Which means one more tax. An exit tax. We are turning into Soviet Albania without the weather
Oh well, at least we managed to spend £100,000,000,000 on the world’s slowest railway which won’t become operational for another 450 years
Since you (a) apparently hate this country and (b) think there are too many people in it I would have thought there is a very obvious solution available to you...
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
I suspect it has come from the government planning for fallout of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
But it simply isn't going to work, food inflation is utterly unavoidable..
Indeed.
Within the next few months people will be experts in fertiliser production.
So I guess that the scenarios are looking very worrying? Also a great time to become the new PM for Burnham/Streeting/Rayner.
At the start of the pandemic remember how countries were fighting to secure PPE, now imagine that with food.
Worth remembering that roughly twice as many people (~2.1 million) emigrated from Ireland due to the Famine, as died due to it (~1 million), and this was in the mid-19th century.
It's reasonable to anticipate the largest migration of people in history as a result. Needless to say, that will have consequences.
Whilst I'm sure you're all correct, I'm somewhat confused as to why diesel is not currently £1236.78 per millilitre.
Are we still in the calm before the storm? Are our futures markets not functioning? Or are we just buying from Putin again?
Everyone is running down their inventories and strategic reserves in the hope that the Strait of Hormuz is open again before those run out.
On food I haven't seen the statistics on planting this spring, but when you see stories like India telling its farmers to halves their fertiliser use it seems obvious that there is a large problem incoming.
One of the issues with food is that there's a large lag between when a problem in the future becomes inevitable (because not enough crops have been planted or fertiliser used), and when that problem becomes obvious (when there's actually a food deficit following the harvest), and also in rectifying the problem (by growing more food again with restored supplies of fertiliser).
Ah so you're saying that if Hormuz reopened tomorrow it would be possible to restock by shipping more than normal, as well as meeting current demand, and so avoiding a supply crunch? I was under the impression that shipping times meant diesel running very low was already baked in.
The shipping times to various locations are measured in weeks. If you had a 100% open Hormuz *now*, it’s 2 months for the cargos to start arriving.
Then you have to refill the supply chains. Lots of stuff emptied or shut in.
So you have multiple months from restart to back to normal, built in.
This actually *beats* the Bowes projections, which I posted earlier, that many seemed sceptical of. We are on track for three years of negative net migration in the run up to the 2029 GE.
Burnham really needs to stick with what Mahmood is doing.
The reduction is the work of Sunak and Starmer not changing the rules
On Mahmood, she seems to be the choice of Home Secretary by Burnham
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
Presumably it's inspired by Mamdani's idea of state-owned grocery stores - and therefore engineered lower prices - in New York
That particular story is going to be quite brilliant to watch.
It’s going to take two years to build (Wal-Mart can do a massive warehouse hypermarket in six months), is going to be staffed by Union staff on $40 an hour for a 35 hour week, time-and-a-half outside 9-5 and double time nights and weekends, has very little buying power, and is likely to be a massive target for shoplifting and looting, neither of which Mamdani currently sees as bad things.
It’s going to cost many millions and be a total failure. I know this because it’s been a total failure costing millions every time it’s been tried before.
Maybe, like trying communism, it’s going to be different this time……….
Maybe it's going to be different this time and Sandpit isn't just repeating dodgy MAGA talking points... nah, probably not.
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
Presumably it's inspired by Mamdani's idea of state-owned grocery stores - and therefore engineered lower prices - in New York
That particular story is going to be quite brilliant to watch.
It’s going to take two years to build (Wal-Mart can do a massive warehouse hypermarket in six months), is going to be staffed by Union staff on $40 an hour for a 35 hour week, time-and-a-half outside 9-5 and double time nights and weekends, has very little buying power, and is likely to be a massive target for shoplifting and looting, neither of which Mamdani currently sees as bad things.
It’s going to cost many millions and be a total failure. I know this because it’s been a total failure costing millions every time it’s been tried before.
Maybe, like trying communism, it’s going to be different this time……….
Indeed, will be a totally different type of communism this time, nothing like all the other failed attempts at it.
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
Can you identify who these people are? Which home, exactly?
If I didn't know you better, I'd say that your "more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger" support for the hard right might just be fairly naked racism... So I think you should explain your thinking here.
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
I suspect it has come from the government planning for fallout of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
But it simply isn't going to work, food inflation is utterly unavoidable..
Indeed.
Within the next few months people will be experts in fertiliser production.
So I guess that the scenarios are looking very worrying? Also a great time to become the new PM for Burnham/Streeting/Rayner.
At the start of the pandemic remember how countries were fighting to secure PPE, now imagine that with food.
Worth remembering that roughly twice as many people (~2.1 million) emigrated from Ireland due to the Famine, as died due to it (~1 million), and this was in the mid-19th century.
It's reasonable to anticipate the largest migration of people in history as a result. Needless to say, that will have consequences.
Whilst I'm sure you're all correct, I'm somewhat confused as to why diesel is not currently £1236.78 per millilitre.
Are we still in the calm before the storm? Are our futures markets not functioning? Or are we just buying from Putin again?
Everyone is running down their inventories and strategic reserves in the hope that the Strait of Hormuz is open again before those run out.
On food I haven't seen the statistics on planting this spring, but when you see stories like India telling its farmers to halves their fertiliser use it seems obvious that there is a large problem incoming.
One of the issues with food is that there's a large lag between when a problem in the future becomes inevitable (because not enough crops have been planted or fertiliser used), and when that problem becomes obvious (when there's actually a food deficit following the harvest), and also in rectifying the problem (by growing more food again with restored supplies of fertiliser).
Ah so you're saying that if Hormuz reopened tomorrow it would be possible to restock by shipping more than normal, as well as meeting current demand, and so avoiding a supply crunch? I was under the impression that shipping times meant diesel running very low was already baked in.
The shipping times to various locations are measured in weeks. If you had a 100% open Hormuz *now*, it’s 2 months for the cargos to start arriving.
Then you have to refill the supply chains. Lots of stuff emptied or shut in.
So you have multiple months from restart to back to normal, built in.
Something for everybody in the immigration figures.
Labour can say headline figure well down and less asylum seeks in hotels, Mahmood doing a good job. Although the wider PLP don't like Mahmoods sticking to "hardline" immigration policy (it isn't particularly hardline IMO). Be interesting to see if Burnham sticks with her.
Tories can say that was our policy, but Labour policies still driving too many educated / high earner away. In YE December 2025, 246,000 British nationals left the UK, a slight decline of 4% from the updated YE December 2024 estimates of 257,000. 250k that's a lot of people still leaving.
Reform can say still too high, aslyum claims are up and Labour doing some jiggery pokery with "hotels" just moving people to HMOs. Also, still 700k in which is very high number, of which 625k are non-EU (dog whistle).
Green can say "open borders", "hug the world", Mahmood is giving in to the right wing media, stifling the NHS, universities etc as not allowing enough people in.
Lib Dems can say look how EU immigration has totally closed, Brexit bad. Undo Brexit, get more skilled EU people in, then require less non-EU immigrants. Three cheers all round for more Polish plumbers and Estonain nannies.
Restore, one immigrant is one too many, we should be pursing re-immigration.
The public seem to be in a mood to not give Labour credit for anything and it seems to be the in thing to just follow the herd and constantly moan about the government.
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
Presumably it's inspired by Mamdani's idea of state-owned grocery stores - and therefore engineered lower prices - in New York
That particular story is going to be quite brilliant to watch.
It’s going to take two years to build (Wal-Mart can do a massive warehouse hypermarket in six months), is going to be staffed by Union staff on $40 an hour for a 35 hour week, time-and-a-half outside 9-5 and double time nights and weekends, has very little buying power, and is likely to be a massive target for shoplifting and looting, neither of which Mamdani currently sees as bad things.
It’s going to cost many millions and be a total failure. I know this because it’s been a total failure costing millions every time it’s been tried before.
Maybe, like trying communism, it’s going to be different this time……….
Indeed, will be a totally different type of communism this time, nothing like all the other failed attempts at it.
It seems already to have been abandoned after the reaction from retailers. Quite why the government thought it sensible even to try has yet to be explained.
With Streeting harming back to 1980s Lawson, maybe Reeves though going back an extra decade might be a good idea ...
(Apologies; I see you were talking about Mamdani. One of his odder ideas.)
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
I suspect it has come from the government planning for fallout of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
But it simply isn't going to work, food inflation is utterly unavoidable..
Indeed.
Within the next few months people will be experts in fertiliser production.
So I guess that the scenarios are looking very worrying? Also a great time to become the new PM for Burnham/Streeting/Rayner.
At the start of the pandemic remember how countries were fighting to secure PPE, now imagine that with food.
Worth remembering that roughly twice as many people (~2.1 million) emigrated from Ireland due to the Famine, as died due to it (~1 million), and this was in the mid-19th century.
It's reasonable to anticipate the largest migration of people in history as a result. Needless to say, that will have consequences.
Whilst I'm sure you're all correct, I'm somewhat confused as to why diesel is not currently £1236.78 per millilitre.
Are we still in the calm before the storm? Are our futures markets not functioning? Or are we just buying from Putin again?
Everyone is running down their inventories and strategic reserves in the hope that the Strait of Hormuz is open again before those run out.
On food I haven't seen the statistics on planting this spring, but when you see stories like India telling its farmers to halves their fertiliser use it seems obvious that there is a large problem incoming.
One of the issues with food is that there's a large lag between when a problem in the future becomes inevitable (because not enough crops have been planted or fertiliser used), and when that problem becomes obvious (when there's actually a food deficit following the harvest), and also in rectifying the problem (by growing more food again with restored supplies of fertiliser).
Ah so you're saying that if Hormuz reopened tomorrow it would be possible to restock by shipping more than normal, as well as meeting current demand, and so avoiding a supply crunch? I was under the impression that shipping times meant diesel running very low was already baked in.
I don't know, but that does seem to be the prevailing opinion of the market. There will be a deal and Hormuz will reopen, soon, and then everything will gradually return to normal.
My guess is that this is irrational complacency, but perhaps actors in the market know more than me about the special measures being deployed to build oil pipelines bypassing the Strait in record time.
If Labour follow through on these insane new taxes, tax hikes, taxes on everything, then we will see capital flight on a new and unprecedented scale. Which means one more tax. An exit tax. We are turning into Soviet Albania without the weather
Oh well, at least we managed to spend £100,000,000,000 on the world’s slowest railway which won’t become operational for another 450 years
Since you (a) apparently hate this country and (b) think there are too many people in it I would have thought there is a very obvious solution available to you...
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
Presumably it's inspired by Mamdani's idea of state-owned grocery stores - and therefore engineered lower prices - in New York
That particular story is going to be quite brilliant to watch.
It’s going to take two years to build (Wal-Mart can do a massive warehouse hypermarket in six months), is going to be staffed by Union staff on $40 an hour for a 35 hour week, time-and-a-half outside 9-5 and double time nights and weekends, has very little buying power, and is likely to be a massive target for shoplifting and looting, neither of which Mamdani currently sees as bad things.
It’s going to cost many millions and be a total failure. I know this because it’s been a total failure costing millions every time it’s been tried before.
Maybe, like trying communism, it’s going to be different this time……….
Problem is New York has food deserts in some parts of the city so he needs to do something
The public seem to be in a mood to not give Labour credit for anything and it seems to be the in thing to just follow the herd and constantly moan about the government.
The people have really lost the trust of the government, haven’t they?
The latest S&P Global Flash UK PMI composite output index dropped to 48.5 in May from 52.6 in April. A 13-month low and well below the 50 expansion threshold…
That reading significantly undershot the 51.6 consensus forecast from Reuters-polled economists. Services saw the sharpest activity decline since January 2021, with the overall reading the lowest outside the pandemic in nearly a decade. S&P Global’s Chris Williamson said there is a “perfect storm” of political uncertainty compounding the economic fallout from Iran…
Firms reported falling output, surging inflation, supply shortages, and job cuts, with weaker investment sentiment and delayed consumer spending decisions.
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
Presumably it's inspired by Mamdani's idea of state-owned grocery stores - and therefore engineered lower prices - in New York
That particular story is going to be quite brilliant to watch.
It’s going to take two years to build (Wal-Mart can do a massive warehouse hypermarket in six months), is going to be staffed by Union staff on $40 an hour for a 35 hour week, time-and-a-half outside 9-5 and double time nights and weekends, has very little buying power, and is likely to be a massive target for shoplifting and looting, neither of which Mamdani currently sees as bad things.
It’s going to cost many millions and be a total failure. I know this because it’s been a total failure costing millions every time it’s been tried before.
Maybe, like trying communism, it’s going to be different this time……….
Indeed, will be a totally different type of communism this time, nothing like all the other failed attempts at it.
What people miss is that city-owned groceries is not an entirely new concept in the land of the free where several states own and run off-licences.
The public seem to be in a mood to not give Labour credit for anything and it seems to be the in thing to just follow the herd and constantly moan about the government.
This government are the worst communicators ever, and the media is more biased and polarised than ever so it is not surprising. Labour do need a Burnham or Streeting who can actually talk normal.
I promised to restore control to our borders. My government is delivering.
I know there’s more to do, we’re introducing a skills-based migration system that rewards contribution and ends our reliance on cheap overseas workers.
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
How would you make this happen? Should I be worried? Do I need to pack my bags?
Since Leon is gaily talking of deporting millions, then quite possibly.
Well, we gaily imported millions - literally a million a year at peak Boriswave, an insane policy which no one ever asked for (and for which Boris should do time) it seems fitting that we reverse the policy with the same cheery insouciance
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
Presumably it's inspired by Mamdani's idea of state-owned grocery stores - and therefore engineered lower prices - in New York
That particular story is going to be quite brilliant to watch.
It’s going to take two years to build (Wal-Mart can do a massive warehouse hypermarket in six months), is going to be staffed by Union staff on $40 an hour for a 35 hour week, time-and-a-half outside 9-5 and double time nights and weekends, has very little buying power, and is likely to be a massive target for shoplifting and looting, neither of which Mamdani currently sees as bad things.
It’s going to cost many millions and be a total failure. I know this because it’s been a total failure costing millions every time it’s been tried before.
Maybe, like trying communism, it’s going to be different this time……….
Indeed, will be a totally different type of communism this time, nothing like all the other failed attempts at it.
What people miss is that city-owned groceries is not an entirely new concept in the land of the free where several states own and run off-licences.
Which only work by granting themselves monopolies….
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
Presumably it's inspired by Mamdani's idea of state-owned grocery stores - and therefore engineered lower prices - in New York
That particular story is going to be quite brilliant to watch.
It’s going to take two years to build (Wal-Mart can do a massive warehouse hypermarket in six months), is going to be staffed by Union staff on $40 an hour for a 35 hour week, time-and-a-half outside 9-5 and double time nights and weekends, has very little buying power, and is likely to be a massive target for shoplifting and looting, neither of which Mamdani currently sees as bad things.
It’s going to cost many millions and be a total failure. I know this because it’s been a total failure costing millions every time it’s been tried before.
Maybe, like trying communism, it’s going to be different this time……….
Indeed, will be a totally different type of communism this time, nothing like all the other failed attempts at it.
What people miss is that city-owned groceries is not an entirely new concept in the land of the free where several states own and run off-licences.
Off-licences are totally different though. Its based in the prohibition "sins" of alcohol mentality and they aren't exactly very popular with those that drink. Booze smuggling was the origins of NASCAR and very much still a thing in the US where people just drive to other towns and fill up on booze. Same in Canada, the state monopoly "Beer Store" come in for a lot of complaints particular beacuse of pricing, but also availability of booze brands it very tightly controlled.
The Canadian stores have got better (I was there a couple of months ago), but better in terms of if you like hipster small brewery IPA type beers, and still nowhere near as good as US which has undergo an absolute revolution in the quality of craft beer. Base price is very high if all you want is piss water.
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
I suspect it has come from the government planning for fallout of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
But it simply isn't going to work, food inflation is utterly unavoidable..
Indeed.
Within the next few months people will be experts in fertiliser production.
So I guess that the scenarios are looking very worrying? Also a great time to become the new PM for Burnham/Streeting/Rayner.
At the start of the pandemic remember how countries were fighting to secure PPE, now imagine that with food.
Worth remembering that roughly twice as many people (~2.1 million) emigrated from Ireland due to the Famine, as died due to it (~1 million), and this was in the mid-19th century.
It's reasonable to anticipate the largest migration of people in history as a result. Needless to say, that will have consequences.
Whilst I'm sure you're all correct, I'm somewhat confused as to why diesel is not currently £1236.78 per millilitre.
Are we still in the calm before the storm? Are our futures markets not functioning? Or are we just buying from Putin again?
Everyone is running down their inventories and strategic reserves in the hope that the Strait of Hormuz is open again before those run out.
On food I haven't seen the statistics on planting this spring, but when you see stories like India telling its farmers to halves their fertiliser use it seems obvious that there is a large problem incoming.
One of the issues with food is that there's a large lag between when a problem in the future becomes inevitable (because not enough crops have been planted or fertiliser used), and when that problem becomes obvious (when there's actually a food deficit following the harvest), and also in rectifying the problem (by growing more food again with restored supplies of fertiliser).
Ah so you're saying that if Hormuz reopened tomorrow it would be possible to restock by shipping more than normal, as well as meeting current demand, and so avoiding a supply crunch? I was under the impression that shipping times meant diesel running very low was already baked in.
I don't know, but that does seem to be the prevailing opinion of the market. There will be a deal and Hormuz will reopen, soon, and then everything will gradually return to normal.
My guess is that this is irrational complacency, but perhaps actors in the market know more than me about the special measures being deployed to build oil pipelines bypassing the Strait in record time.
The current consensus seems to be that a deal is abut to be done. Which puts more reliance on Trump's common sense and reliability than I am comfortable with.
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
How would you make this happen? Should I be worried? Do I need to pack my bags?
Since Leon is gaily talking of deporting millions, then quite possibly.
Well, we gaily imported millions - literally a million a year at peak Boriswave, an insane policy which no one ever asked for (and for which Boris should do time) it seems fitting that we reverse the policy with the same cheery insouciance
OK - so how would you implement it? No point just talking about some an aspiration - how matters too!
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Rates are falling substantially. Why do you think they'll level out here?
Because the second derivative is much lower.
It's roughly halved. Didn't it roughly halve last time? If it halves again, it will already be below 100k. Your maths is wonky on either a multiplicative or additive scale.
I'm looking at changes in the components, not just the headline numbers.
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
How would you make this happen? Should I be worried? Do I need to pack my bags?
Since Leon is gaily talking of deporting millions, then quite possibly.
Well, we gaily imported millions - literally a million a year at peak Boriswave, an insane policy which no one ever asked for (and for which Boris should do time) it seems fitting that we reverse the policy with the same cheery insouciance
OK - so how would you implement it? No point just talking about some an aspiration - how matters too!
I would vote for a government that says it will do it
I see Wes Streeting is proposing to match capital gains tax to income tax.
/If/ Labour allows inflation re-indexing of assets, so that the cost basis for capital gains tax is scaled with inflation then this is a sensible idea. If not, it will be the stupidist tax in the UK, even worse than stamp duty: A non-indexed high rate of CGT is a > 100% tax on long term gains & destroys private investment at a stroke, it’s an enormous incentive for the government to shadow tax assets by printing £ & makes incentivising employees through share options impossible.
Labour should, in fact, impose CGT at the sellers marginal income tax rate after inflation re-indexing & use the income to cut income taxes & reward work.
Failure to index the cost basis to inflation for the CGT calculation will destroy the economy: If you think we’ve got low growth now, wait till you see what happens when the real tax on capital gains is > 100% !
(Ironically, this represents a return to Tory orthodoxy: Nigel Lawson introduced almost exactly this system back in 1988 or so, I’m not sure why it was subsequently abandoned.)
CGT being taxed at income tax rates is f****** moronic, and not just for the reasons you’ve outlined.
I hold substantial unrealised gains from the US tech boom but since the 2024 budget changes I’ve capped my annual disposals at £50k to avoid triggering the higher rate. That means a large portion of capital is effectively stranded until CGT falls or I relocate abroad.
Since 2024, I’ve been approached twice to seed promising UK startups. Both times, I've declined because investing would push me over the threshold. In total, I’ve turned down £250k+ in domestic investment. That's capital that could have funded British business instead of remaining parked in US markets. One of those businesses did very well. The other failed. But 2023's budget changes were enough to adjust my risk/reward profile so I did not invest.
Where it really gets interesting is if CGT becomes treated as ordinary income. So if I earn £50k from work, I’d instantly face a 40% rate on any asset sales. The rational response in my case would be to stop working entirely and live off the £50k allowance at the lower band, effectively stepping out of the workforce until retirement age. For someone with two decades left in their career, that’s another direct blow to UK productivity. Nice for me, though.
However, in all honesty, I doubt I’ll stick around to see how it plays out. If cashing out equity gains before markets peak becomes my priority, options like EU non-lucrative visas, golden residence schemes, or the Crown Dependencies will suddenly look far more attractive, expensive yes but still cheaper than paying UK tax rates. If an exit tax is even hinted at, I’ll be long gone. These policies are always telegraphed well in advance.
My main reason for being in the UK at the moment is long term illness (I have private healthcare by the way, so not even burdening the NHS!) and not really wanting to navigate foreign systems while sick. Being able to cash in some of my investments both to reduce my workload and pay for private healthcare has been a real boon.
TL;DR: I will never pay 40%+ CGT. If it’s implemented, I’ll either stay under the threshold indefinitely or leave. The damage is already done - my behaviour has already shifted since 2024, resulting in less capital flowing into UK business.
If people don't like that or think me unpatriotic I'd point out I've already paid more in taxes by midlife than most people will earn in a lifetime, and I have private healthcare and no kids so really take very little from the state. I will not pay a penny more.
I see Wes Streeting is proposing to match capital gains tax to income tax.
/If/ Labour allows inflation re-indexing of assets, so that the cost basis for capital gains tax is scaled with inflation then this is a sensible idea. If not, it will be the stupidist tax in the UK, even worse than stamp duty: A non-indexed high rate of CGT is a > 100% tax on long term gains & destroys private investment at a stroke, it’s an enormous incentive for the government to shadow tax assets by printing £ & makes incentivising employees through share options impossible.
Labour should, in fact, impose CGT at the sellers marginal income tax rate after inflation re-indexing & use the income to cut income taxes & reward work.
Failure to index the cost basis to inflation for the CGT calculation will destroy the economy: If you think we’ve got low growth now, wait till you see what happens when the real tax on capital gains is > 100% !
(Ironically, this represents a return to Tory orthodoxy: Nigel Lawson introduced almost exactly this system back in 1988 or so, I’m not sure why it was subsequently abandoned.)
Dan Neidle has a thread welcoming the proposal. And makes the Lawson point, too.
A thread on why capital gains tax is broken. It's too low AND too high. & why this is a good proposal.
It's been amusing to read a bunch of Tories calling Streeting a twat for proposing what was once That heroes orthodoxy.
Of course Lawson wouldn't have been quite so keen on raising the top rate of tax. He preferred VAT.
Honestly that looks at first glance like a pretty sensible idea. If Labour would do something sensible about NI as well they might stand a chance of turning things around.
Dan Neidle's TPA outfit has published a very long document which I've not read but that's the headline.
There is a blatant "questionable call" (aka error) right at the start - surely Mr Farage's profession and employment is that of a political campaigner?
"It’s connected to Mr Farage’s historic and current political campaigning activity, and not to any trade, profession, employment or office that he carries on or holds."
That is not a questionable call or error. Political campaigning is not classed as a trade, profession or vocation for tax purposes if the activity is primarily carried out on a voluntary, non-commercial or purely ideological basis. If you are a consultant, a PR provider, campaigns agency or similar, your income is taxable. If you are a politician, donations to support you or your campaigning are not classed as taxable income. Politicians generally do not pay income tax on donations or gifts provided they are given to support their political activities rather than being a reward for specific employment-related services.
The public seem to be in a mood to not give Labour credit for anything and it seems to be the in thing to just follow the herd and constantly moan about the government.
The government and Starmer personally have lost the trust of the public and in the wider context, all politicians, as they fail to meet expectations
Furthermore, they can see a government conducting a civil war in cabinet and with it's mps, so much so they have lost credibility to govern and want Starmer gone
My hope is Burnham wins, and in so doing resets the agenda and I want him to succeed and beat off the Reform and Green challenge
The country deserves better, much better, and if this experiment fails then goodness knows what happens next
I support Burnham endorsing Mahmood's stance on immigration and also a wealth tax and complete overhaul of council tax
I do support Kemi, as I am of the opinion she will temper the extremes of Farage as there will always be a right in politics, just not far right
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
Presumably it's inspired by Mamdani's idea of state-owned grocery stores - and therefore engineered lower prices - in New York
That particular story is going to be quite brilliant to watch.
It’s going to take two years to build (Wal-Mart can do a massive warehouse hypermarket in six months), is going to be staffed by Union staff on $40 an hour for a 35 hour week, time-and-a-half outside 9-5 and double time nights and weekends, has very little buying power, and is likely to be a massive target for shoplifting and looting, neither of which Mamdani currently sees as bad things.
It’s going to cost many millions and be a total failure. I know this because it’s been a total failure costing millions every time it’s been tried before.
Maybe, like trying communism, it’s going to be different this time……….
Indeed, will be a totally different type of communism this time, nothing like all the other failed attempts at it.
What people miss is that city-owned groceries is not an entirely new concept in the land of the free where several states own and run off-licences.
The state-run offies are enforced monopolies though.
This NY idea is going to be competing with Wal-Mart, Target, and Costco, plus many smaller grocery shops. Good luck with that.
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
Presumably it's inspired by Mamdani's idea of state-owned grocery stores - and therefore engineered lower prices - in New York
That particular story is going to be quite brilliant to watch.
It’s going to take two years to build (Wal-Mart can do a massive warehouse hypermarket in six months), is going to be staffed by Union staff on $40 an hour for a 35 hour week, time-and-a-half outside 9-5 and double time nights and weekends, has very little buying power, and is likely to be a massive target for shoplifting and looting, neither of which Mamdani currently sees as bad things.
It’s going to cost many millions and be a total failure. I know this because it’s been a total failure costing millions every time it’s been tried before.
Maybe, like trying communism, it’s going to be different this time……….
Indeed, will be a totally different type of communism this time, nothing like all the other failed attempts at it.
What people miss is that city-owned groceries is not an entirely new concept in the land of the free where several states own and run off-licences.
Really not the same thing. The NY grocery market is pretty competitive.
The Mamdani markets won't pay rent or property taxes (which account for a lot of overhead in NY), so are heavily subsidised competition. If there are more than a handful of them, it will cause serious distortions with unpredictable effects.
Subsidising food banks would be a more sensible alternative, IMO.
One Russian paper says Russia's “on verge of recession” & warns of “a large-scale bank liquidity crisis.” After Putin & Xi failed to reach a deal on the 'Power of Siberia 2' pipeline, another paper writes: “Chinese media ignored the topic of the gas pipeline.”
I see Wes Streeting is proposing to match capital gains tax to income tax.
/If/ Labour allows inflation re-indexing of assets, so that the cost basis for capital gains tax is scaled with inflation then this is a sensible idea. If not, it will be the stupidist tax in the UK, even worse than stamp duty: A non-indexed high rate of CGT is a > 100% tax on long term gains & destroys private investment at a stroke, it’s an enormous incentive for the government to shadow tax assets by printing £ & makes incentivising employees through share options impossible.
Labour should, in fact, impose CGT at the sellers marginal income tax rate after inflation re-indexing & use the income to cut income taxes & reward work.
Failure to index the cost basis to inflation for the CGT calculation will destroy the economy: If you think we’ve got low growth now, wait till you see what happens when the real tax on capital gains is > 100% !
(Ironically, this represents a return to Tory orthodoxy: Nigel Lawson introduced almost exactly this system back in 1988 or so, I’m not sure why it was subsequently abandoned.)
Dan Neidle has a thread welcoming the proposal. And makes the Lawson point, too.
A thread on why capital gains tax is broken. It's too low AND too high. & why this is a good proposal.
It's been amusing to read a bunch of Tories calling Streeting a twat for proposing what was once That heroes orthodoxy.
Of course Lawson wouldn't have been quite so keen on raising the top rate of tax. He preferred VAT.
Honestly that looks at first glance like a pretty sensible idea. If Labour would do something sensible about NI as well they might stand a chance of turning things around.
It’s a good idea for something’s - it’s probably a bad thing if it applies to residential property. I made a massive profit back in 2004 when I sold the BTL we originally bought, but thanks to inflation I think we paid £3,000 in CGT rather than the £12,000 probably £18,000 it would have cost under the current rules
Dan Neidle's TPA outfit has published a very long document which I've not read but that's the headline.
There is a blatant "questionable call" (aka error) right at the start - surely Mr Farage's profession and employment is that of a political campaigner?
"It’s connected to Mr Farage’s historic and current political campaigning activity, and not to any trade, profession, employment or office that he carries on or holds."
That is not a questionable call or error. Political campaigning is not classed as a trade, profession or vocation for tax purposes if the activity is primarily carried out on a voluntary, non-commercial or purely ideological basis. If you are a consultant, a PR provider, campaigns agency or similar, your income is taxable. If you are a politician, donations to support you or your campaigning are not classed as taxable income. Politicians generally do not pay income tax on donations or gifts provided they are given to support their political activities rather than being a reward for specific employment-related services.
The donation wasn't made to support him or support his campaigning but in his own words as a reward.
One Russian paper says Russia's “on verge of recession” & warns of “a large-scale bank liquidity crisis.” After Putin & Xi failed to reach a deal on the 'Power of Siberia 2' pipeline, another paper writes: “Chinese media ignored the topic of the gas pipeline.”
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
Can you identify who these people are? Which home, exactly?
If I didn't know you better, I'd say that your "more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger" support for the hard right might just be fairly naked racism... So I think you should explain your thinking here.
Perhaps people like the cheery Nigerian chappy I became acquainted with at church. He, his wife and teenage son and daughter turned up as part of the Boriswave, all to a non-jobs in socal care, having been told (probably before paying a fortune for visas to some scumbag in Nigeria) that in England the streets are made of gold. He was cheerfully driving round without a license or insurance, because he had a worldview where he couldn't get his head around needing these. They were desperately poor, living off various forms of handout. Eventually one of them got a job near Gatwick, and they all headed down there.
I don’t dislike them. Their teenage lad was quite amusing, he played drums in my band at church. I don't wish them any ill, but the sad reality was that they didn't really get how the UK works, they were a massive net drain on both the taxpayer and also other social networks (our church put huge resources into supporting them), and unfortunately they probably would be better off back in Nigeria.
If Labour follow through on these insane new taxes, tax hikes, taxes on everything, then we will see capital flight on a new and unprecedented scale. Which means one more tax. An exit tax. We are turning into Soviet Albania without the weather
Oh well, at least we managed to spend £100,000,000,000 on the world’s slowest railway which won’t become operational for another 450 years
Since you (a) apparently hate this country and (b) think there are too many people in it I would have thought there is a very obvious solution available to you...
OK, I’M LEAVING!
*Examines copious amounts of chichi knick knacks that will need to be wrapped up*
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
I suspect it has come from the government planning for fallout of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
But it simply isn't going to work, food inflation is utterly unavoidable..
Indeed.
Within the next few months people will be experts in fertiliser production.
So I guess that the scenarios are looking very worrying? Also a great time to become the new PM for Burnham/Streeting/Rayner.
At the start of the pandemic remember how countries were fighting to secure PPE, now imagine that with food.
Worth remembering that roughly twice as many people (~2.1 million) emigrated from Ireland due to the Famine, as died due to it (~1 million), and this was in the mid-19th century.
It's reasonable to anticipate the largest migration of people in history as a result. Needless to say, that will have consequences.
Whilst I'm sure you're all correct, I'm somewhat confused as to why diesel is not currently £1236.78 per millilitre.
Are we still in the calm before the storm? Are our futures markets not functioning? Or are we just buying from Putin again?
Everyone is running down their inventories and strategic reserves in the hope that the Strait of Hormuz is open again before those run out.
On food I haven't seen the statistics on planting this spring, but when you see stories like India telling its farmers to halves their fertiliser use it seems obvious that there is a large problem incoming.
One of the issues with food is that there's a large lag between when a problem in the future becomes inevitable (because not enough crops have been planted or fertiliser used), and when that problem becomes obvious (when there's actually a food deficit following the harvest), and also in rectifying the problem (by growing more food again with restored supplies of fertiliser).
Ah so you're saying that if Hormuz reopened tomorrow it would be possible to restock by shipping more than normal, as well as meeting current demand, and so avoiding a supply crunch? I was under the impression that shipping times meant diesel running very low was already baked in.
I don't know, but that does seem to be the prevailing opinion of the market. There will be a deal and Hormuz will reopen, soon, and then everything will gradually return to normal.
My guess is that this is irrational complacency, but perhaps actors in the market know more than me about the special measures being deployed to build oil pipelines bypassing the Strait in record time.
The current consensus seems to be that a deal is abut to be done. Which puts more reliance on Trump's common sense and reliability than I am comfortable with.
I'm not sure it's just a question of a lack of common sense. To make a deal it looks like Trump has to accept failure - Iran are asking for a high price for a deal.
You don't have to be a narcissistic wannabe dictator to find accepting failure difficult, though I'm sure it helps.
Dan Neidle's TPA outfit has published a very long document which I've not read but that's the headline.
There is a blatant "questionable call" (aka error) right at the start - surely Mr Farage's profession and employment is that of a political campaigner?
"It’s connected to Mr Farage’s historic and current political campaigning activity, and not to any trade, profession, employment or office that he carries on or holds."
That is not a questionable call or error. Political campaigning is not classed as a trade, profession or vocation for tax purposes if the activity is primarily carried out on a voluntary, non-commercial or purely ideological basis. If you are a consultant, a PR provider, campaigns agency or similar, your income is taxable. If you are a politician, donations to support you or your campaigning are not classed as taxable income. Politicians generally do not pay income tax on donations or gifts provided they are given to support their political activities rather than being a reward for specific employment-related services.
The donation wasn't made to support him or support his campaigning but in his own words as a reward.
Which is still not taxable according to Neidle.
In any event the objection is not about tax; it's that Farage took a massive bung from overseas and failed to declare it.
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
How would you make this happen? Should I be worried? Do I need to pack my bags?
Since Leon is gaily talking of deporting millions, then quite possibly.
Well, we gaily imported millions - literally a million a year at peak Boriswave, an insane policy which no one ever asked for (and for which Boris should do time) it seems fitting that we reverse the policy with the same cheery insouciance
OK - so how would you implement it? No point just talking about some an aspiration - how matters too!
I would vote for a government that says it will do it
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
How would you make this happen? Should I be worried? Do I need to pack my bags?
Since Leon is gaily talking of deporting millions, then quite possibly.
Well, we gaily imported millions - literally a million a year at peak Boriswave, an insane policy which no one ever asked for (and for which Boris should do time) it seems fitting that we reverse the policy with the same cheery insouciance
OK - so how would you implement it? No point just talking about some an aspiration - how matters too!
I would vote for a government that says it will do it
Do what exactly? Sorry if I am being thick.
You are being thick. Life is too short to chat with thick people. Sorry
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
We are about to run out of fertiliser to grow things and diesel to drive what we can't grow to the supermarkets.
What I found odd was that amidst all the pb pearl clutching, no-one remembered that both parties tried something similar in the 1960s and 70s. Prices and incomes policy was one of the things Mrs Thatcher was reacting against.
Red diesel has come back a bit in price, down around 25-30p/litre past month, but fertiliser is still higher at £500+/ton, as opposed to pre Hormuz when it started with a 3, not a 5
I think governments are well aware of the risks of inflation linked to the crisis, but I don't think food price capping is a sensible policy. Maybe in the late 60s air miles on food was less of a thing and we were more self sufficient then. Its a global market now
EasyJet boss says summer flights won't be hit by jet fuel shortages
Jarvis said fuel production had increased in Norway, West Africa and the Americas, while "refining capacity for jet fuel has also increased substantially outside of the Gulf region".
Dan Neidle's TPA outfit has published a very long document which I've not read but that's the headline.
There is a blatant "questionable call" (aka error) right at the start - surely Mr Farage's profession and employment is that of a political campaigner?
"It’s connected to Mr Farage’s historic and current political campaigning activity, and not to any trade, profession, employment or office that he carries on or holds."
That is not a questionable call or error. Political campaigning is not classed as a trade, profession or vocation for tax purposes if the activity is primarily carried out on a voluntary, non-commercial or purely ideological basis. If you are a consultant, a PR provider, campaigns agency or similar, your income is taxable. If you are a politician, donations to support you or your campaigning are not classed as taxable income. Politicians generally do not pay income tax on donations or gifts provided they are given to support their political activities rather than being a reward for specific employment-related services.
The donation wasn't made to support him or support his campaigning but in his own words as a reward.
Which is still not taxable according to Neidle.
In any event the objection is not about tax; it's that Farage took a massive bung from overseas and failed to declare it.
There are multiple objections! Tax is one of them - I think it is arguable either way and like VAR whatever HMRC decided, taxable or not taxable, would be reasonable and likely upheld in tribunal or court.
One Russian paper says Russia's “on verge of recession” & warns of “a large-scale bank liquidity crisis.” After Putin & Xi failed to reach a deal on the 'Power of Siberia 2' pipeline, another paper writes: “Chinese media ignored the topic of the gas pipeline.”
EasyJet boss says summer flights won't be hit by jet fuel shortages
Jarvis said fuel production had increased in Norway, West Africa and the Americas, while "refining capacity for jet fuel has also increased substantially outside of the Gulf region".
EasyJet boss says summer flights won't be hit by jet fuel shortages
Jarvis said fuel production had increased in Norway, West Africa and the Americas, while "refining capacity for jet fuel has also increased substantially outside of the Gulf region".
While the use of hotels is down, the Home Office are just moving people into dispersal accommodation in normal suburban streets, and the numbers on the Afghan resettlement scheme continues to grow. https://x.com/NeilDotObrien/status/2057399309759291472?s=20
The dandelion effect - Labour are moving asylum seekers out of urban areas and into dispersal accommodation in the suburbs & shires. So most areas have seen an increase since Summer 24 - places with an increase are shown in blue below: https://x.com/NeilDotObrien/status/2057389573362115072?s=20
EasyJet boss says summer flights won't be hit by jet fuel shortages
Jarvis said fuel production had increased in Norway, West Africa and the Americas, while "refining capacity for jet fuel has also increased substantially outside of the Gulf region".
Regular readers will recall that this was my advice to PBers wondering if they should cancel foreign travel because Hormuz
I told them “chill out, it will probably be fine, the industry vibe is more relaxed than you realise. Go ahead and book”
Good advice, it seems
I said yesterday that I have been booking a load of flights over the past 2-3 weeks and not seen any obvious price rises / sticker shock. In face, I have a flight to Asia on Singapore Airlines that was shockingly cheap.
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
How would you make this happen? Should I be worried? Do I need to pack my bags?
Since Leon is gaily talking of deporting millions, then quite possibly.
Well, we gaily imported millions - literally a million a year at peak Boriswave, an insane policy which no one ever asked for (and for which Boris should do time) it seems fitting that we reverse the policy with the same cheery insouciance
OK - so how would you implement it? No point just talking about some an aspiration - how matters too!
I would vote for a government that says it will do it
If Labour follow through on these insane new taxes, tax hikes, taxes on everything, then we will see capital flight on a new and unprecedented scale. Which means one more tax. An exit tax. We are turning into Soviet Albania without the weather
Oh well, at least we managed to spend £100,000,000,000 on the world’s slowest railway which won’t become operational for another 450 years
Since you (a) apparently hate this country and (b) think there are too many people in it I would have thought there is a very obvious solution available to you...
OK, I’M LEAVING!
*Examines copious amounts of chichi knick knacks that will need to be wrapped up*
Ok, maybe not quite yet.
Where you see “chi chi knick knacks” I see a potential Knapper’s Gazette article, which I can bang out in an hour for £400, thereby paying for all these coffee cans - with £200 left over
Because I really am drinking more coffee - about twice as much - simply because the cans are so much more pleasurable to use. Lovely historic delicate beautiful noomy
I’ve been scouring the psych literature looking for a theory that covers this phenomenon. I can’t really find one. Affordance Theory and Cathedral Effect come close, but don’t really map it entirely
The latest S&P Global Flash UK PMI composite output index dropped to 48.5 in May from 52.6 in April. A 13-month low and well below the 50 expansion threshold…
That reading significantly undershot the 51.6 consensus forecast from Reuters-polled economists. Services saw the sharpest activity decline since January 2021, with the overall reading the lowest outside the pandemic in nearly a decade. S&P Global’s Chris Williamson said there is a “perfect storm” of political uncertainty compounding the economic fallout from Iran…
Firms reported falling output, surging inflation, supply shortages, and job cuts, with weaker investment sentiment and delayed consumer spending decisions.
Yesterday at the GP the NHS National Data Opt-Out service was prominently featured in the rolling screen display. This allows us to opt out of our medical records being shared for research, and came in 2018, following on I assume from the various campaigns and conspiracy theories that were being made about privatisation around 2014-2016.
It's not something I have been opposed to ideologically, as more data leads to better research and is a GOOD THING (using Sellars & Yeatman categories). But we are now seeing Palantir developing a role, and the USA has law in place ("Cloud Act" 2018) which allows the Govt to instruct US companies to give them all data stored in the cloud, even if in foreign countries. The UK Govt restrictions against that are only contractual afaics.
I am having second thoughts, even though it undermines a common good. I do not trust the USA, and do not wish to help them in any way whatsoever until I know they are sane.
As someone engaged in health research using medical records*, opt-outs can be hugely damaging, in general, but also to those opting out. If the data of a group are missing, then any issues that need addressing in that group will go undetected and policy/treatments will favour those who did not opt out.
Worth noting that the palantir contract is for service delivery and not research (I think) so opting out won't keep your data out of their and the US government's mitts.
*Actually now in consented research and consent trumps the opt-outs, I think. Previously this had a very real impact on my work (I think - although the difficulty is you actually know very little about who opted out, so hard to tell)
I know. That's why it's a big question for me.
It's one where having a "commons" is a plus 20 for everyone, which can be undermined by a small number feeling that they get a personal plus 0.5 at the cost of a community minus 5.
ISTM that it works very similarly to vaccines and corporate immunity.
You watching those dodgy YouTube channels again I see. Going full Plato, never go full Plato.
Also Bob Vylan is the band name, not the individual, they rather wankerly go by stage names of Bobby Vylan and Bobbie Vylan, rather than Pascal Robinson-Foster and Wade George. At the end of the day, poundshop Rage Against the Machine.
If Labour follow through on these insane new taxes, tax hikes, taxes on everything, then we will see capital flight on a new and unprecedented scale. Which means one more tax. An exit tax. We are turning into Soviet Albania without the weather
Oh well, at least we managed to spend £100,000,000,000 on the world’s slowest railway which won’t become operational for another 450 years
Since you (a) apparently hate this country and (b) think there are too many people in it I would have thought there is a very obvious solution available to you...
OK, I’M LEAVING!
*Examines copious amounts of chichi knick knacks that will need to be wrapped up*
Ok, maybe not quite yet.
Where you see “chi chi knick knacks” I see a potential Knapper’s Gazette article, which I can bang out in an hour for £400, thereby paying for all these coffee cans - with £200 left over
Because I really am drinking more coffee - about twice as much - simply because the cans are so much more pleasurable to use. Lovely historic delicate beautiful noomy
I’ve been scouring the psych literature looking for a theory that covers this phenomenon. I can’t really find one. Affordance Theory and Cathedral Effect come close, but don’t really map it entirely
Fascinating
If you are looking for a psych theory as to why someone should try and get up their own arse, I am sure you will find one if you look hard enough.
I reckon British twitter (Britter?) can be roughly divided into those that think John Cleese was a comedic national treasure who has been radicalised into being a tedious racist old arsehole and those who think he is even more of a national treasure because he’s a tedious racist old arsehole
Does anyone know where this grocery price cap idea has come from? It seems a bit odd that both the Scottish government and Westminster have had the same bright idea at the same time. Is there some horrifying forecast of food price inflation circulating?
We are about to run out of fertiliser to grow things and diesel to drive what we can't grow to the supermarkets.
What I found odd was that amidst all the pb pearl clutching, no-one remembered that both parties tried something similar in the 1960s and 70s. Prices and incomes policy was one of the things Mrs Thatcher was reacting against.
Red diesel has come back a bit in price, down around 25-30p/litre past month, but fertiliser is still higher at £500+/ton, as opposed to pre Hormuz when it started with a 3, not a 5
I think governments are well aware of the risks of inflation linked to the crisis, but I don't think food price capping is a sensible policy. Maybe in the late 60s air miles on food was less of a thing and we were more self sufficient then. Its a global market now
I can't see how capping the price of anything - food, energy, whatever - is ever a sensible decision. If these things are too expensive for poor people to manage, then give poor people more money. That way you don't destroy the price signal that encourages more efficient use of the resources in question, and it ends up costing us all less in the long run.
Impending mass global-famine related migration aside, it looks like net migration will stabilise well above 100,000, with net migration of non-EU+ nationals no lower than 200,000 (latest figure 350k).
I think we can expect immigration to remain a major political issue even if people were to have an accurate understanding of the statistics, because the voters have consistently demonstrated a preference for much lower rates of migration and politicians haven't advocated for higher rates.
Any net migration is going to be a very hard sell if there really are going to be food supply issues. Both that year and for a number of years afterwards.
The issue is no longer migration. It’s the people here that need to go home
How would you make this happen? Should I be worried? Do I need to pack my bags?
Since Leon is gaily talking of deporting millions, then quite possibly.
Well, we gaily imported millions - literally a million a year at peak Boriswave, an insane policy which no one ever asked for (and for which Boris should do time) it seems fitting that we reverse the policy with the same cheery insouciance
OK - so how would you implement it? No point just talking about some an aspiration - how matters too!
I would vote for a government that says it will do it
Do what exactly? Sorry if I am being thick.
You are being thick. Life is too short to chat with thick people. Sorry
Thankfully your views are not representative of the majority in this country, especially in London. Ironically it’s people like you that need to be kicked out from our capital.
If Labour follow through on these insane new taxes, tax hikes, taxes on everything, then we will see capital flight on a new and unprecedented scale. Which means one more tax. An exit tax. We are turning into Soviet Albania without the weather
Oh well, at least we managed to spend £100,000,000,000 on the world’s slowest railway which won’t become operational for another 450 years
Since you (a) apparently hate this country and (b) think there are too many people in it I would have thought there is a very obvious solution available to you...
Vote Reform. Yes
They are the obvious choice for people who hate this country, I suppose. Especially given their well documented ties to Putin.
If Labour follow through on these insane new taxes, tax hikes, taxes on everything, then we will see capital flight on a new and unprecedented scale. Which means one more tax. An exit tax. We are turning into Soviet Albania without the weather
Oh well, at least we managed to spend £100,000,000,000 on the world’s slowest railway which won’t become operational for another 450 years
Since you (a) apparently hate this country and (b) think there are too many people in it I would have thought there is a very obvious solution available to you...
OK, I’M LEAVING!
*Examines copious amounts of chichi knick knacks that will need to be wrapped up*
Ok, maybe not quite yet.
Where you see “chi chi knick knacks” I see a potential Knapper’s Gazette article, which I can bang out in an hour for £400, thereby paying for all these coffee cans - with £200 left over
Because I really am drinking more coffee - about twice as much - simply because the cans are so much more pleasurable to use. Lovely historic delicate beautiful noomy
I’ve been scouring the psych literature looking for a theory that covers this phenomenon. I can’t really find one. Affordance Theory and Cathedral Effect come close, but don’t really map it entirely
Fascinating
If you are looking for a psych theory as to why someone should try and get up their own arse, I am sure you will find one if you look hard enough.
I worked out your problem tho. It has been identified and studied
You have “Attachment Pathology”. Recent research (Beetz, Williams) suggests zoophiles - eg practisers of “man dog physical love” - often report difficulty with human intimacy - they have anxious or avoidant attachment styles, social anxiety, and/or histories of human relational trauma. The loved pet animal, in this case a ravished dog, is experienced as safer, non-judgmental, and unconditional. The relationship is, consequently, partly displaced human attachment
I reckon British twitter (Britter?) can be roughly divided into those that think John Cleese was a comedic national treasure who has been radicalised into being a tedious racist old arsehole and those who think he is even more of a national treasure because he’s a tedious racist old arsehole
Cleese has become a less sympathetic version of Basil Fawlty.
I reckon British twitter (Britter?) can be roughly divided into those that think John Cleese was a comedic national treasure who has been radicalised into being a tedious racist old arsehole and those who think he is even more of a national treasure because he’s a tedious racist old arsehole
Another celeb who has gone down the rabbit hole of social media and become more radialised about everything.
Dan Neidle's TPA outfit has published a very long document which I've not read but that's the headline.
There is a blatant "questionable call" (aka error) right at the start - surely Mr Farage's profession and employment is that of a political campaigner?
"It’s connected to Mr Farage’s historic and current political campaigning activity, and not to any trade, profession, employment or office that he carries on or holds."
That is not a questionable call or error. Political campaigning is not classed as a trade, profession or vocation for tax purposes if the activity is primarily carried out on a voluntary, non-commercial or purely ideological basis. If you are a consultant, a PR provider, campaigns agency or similar, your income is taxable. If you are a politician, donations to support you or your campaigning are not classed as taxable income. Politicians generally do not pay income tax on donations or gifts provided they are given to support their political activities rather than being a reward for specific employment-related services.
The donation wasn't made to support him or support his campaigning but in his own words as a reward.
Which is still not taxable according to Neidle.
In any event the objection is not about tax; it's that Farage took a massive bung from overseas and failed to declare it.
There are multiple objections! Tax is one of them - I think it is arguable either way and like VAR whatever HMRC decided, taxable or not taxable, would be reasonable and likely upheld in tribunal or court.
Oh, it's possible it's taxable depending on the detail surrounding the bung, but it's more likely that it isn't.
As far as I'm concerned, it's seriously dodgy that foreign domiciled billionaires are allowed to interfere in our politics with such huge bungs, and dodgier still that Farage tried to keep it secret.
I reckon British twitter (Britter?) can be roughly divided into those that think John Cleese was a comedic national treasure who has been radicalised into being a tedious racist old arsehole and those who think he is even more of a national treasure because he’s a tedious racist old arsehole
Cleese has become a less sympathetic version of Basil Fawlty.
He looks pretty good for 86, tho. Better than the other Pythons, esp the dead ones. Maybe turning into a loud reactionary is good for the metabolism
AIUI he has some special diet or yoga thing to which he ascribes his healthy longevity
Very interesting piece on the consequences of Trump managing to get Thomas Massie deselected in Kentucky. Massie has, before and after the result, been extensively interviewed by Tucker Carlson on what was going down. So it should be pretty common knowledge among many in MAGA. That said, Massie noted that he had basically been excluded from Fox news which is where most of the older Republican voters in Kentucky get their news from.
Overreach on Trump and the Israeli lobby's part, as the article suggests? Dunno, but it certainly shows what a disastrous impact Trump 2 has had on US democracy. The media, justice dept, etc all completely corrupted by the Trump crowd, all of whom have been granted immunity in advance by Trump who will issue a blanket pardon to his favourites before he steps down.
I reckon British twitter (Britter?) can be roughly divided into those that think John Cleese was a comedic national treasure who has been radicalised into being a tedious racist old arsehole and those who think he is even more of a national treasure because he’s a tedious racist old arsehole
Hardcore remainer and tedious old racist is a combo which complicates the split.
FPT slightly, and not an original observation, but I'm pretty sure that Streeting is angling to be Burnham's Chancellor, and I can see it happening.
Rachel Reeves is tarnished goods and too closely associated with Starmer. Absolutely no way she will continue.
Streeting is floating some smart, Burnham-adjacent ideas on taxation. He's also popularly viewed as centre-right so would probably pacify the almighty bond markets.
There are moderately good odds on Betfair Exchange if you feel so moved.
If Labour follow through on these insane new taxes, tax hikes, taxes on everything, then we will see capital flight on a new and unprecedented scale. Which means one more tax. An exit tax. We are turning into Soviet Albania without the weather
Oh well, at least we managed to spend £100,000,000,000 on the world’s slowest railway which won’t become operational for another 450 years
Since you (a) apparently hate this country and (b) think there are too many people in it I would have thought there is a very obvious solution available to you...
OK, I’M LEAVING!
*Examines copious amounts of chichi knick knacks that will need to be wrapped up*
Ok, maybe not quite yet.
Where you see “chi chi knick knacks” I see a potential Knapper’s Gazette article, which I can bang out in an hour for £400, thereby paying for all these coffee cans - with £200 left over
Because I really am drinking more coffee - about twice as much - simply because the cans are so much more pleasurable to use. Lovely historic delicate beautiful noomy
I’ve been scouring the psych literature looking for a theory that covers this phenomenon. I can’t really find one. Affordance Theory and Cathedral Effect come close, but don’t really map it entirely
Fascinating
There is something about using objects with a past. A friend was describing his latest purchases - old split cane fishing rods and some reels - and how much he is looking forward to using them this summer.
The object still needs to be able to do the job, of course. No point buying a pair of 1950's batting gloves and hoping not to get broken fingers, for instance.
Comments
But it's the Maker candidate.
On food I haven't seen the statistics on planting this spring, but when you see stories like India telling its farmers to halves their fertiliser use it seems obvious that there is a large problem incoming.
One of the issues with food is that there's a large lag between when a problem in the future becomes inevitable (because not enough crops have been planted or fertiliser used), and when that problem becomes obvious (when there's actually a food deficit following the harvest), and also in rectifying the problem (by growing more food again with restored supplies of fertiliser).
Worth noting that the palantir contract is for service delivery and not research (I think) so opting out won't keep your data out of their and the US government's mitts.
*Actually now in consented research and consent trumps the opt-outs, I think. Previously this had a very real impact on my work (I think - although the difficulty is you actually know very little about who opted out, so hard to tell)
Net migration almost halves to 171,000 – even lower than analysts predicted – driven by a fall in work visas
Is this just the start? Could we see negative net migration by the next election? Some experts think so
Seems like we’re following this chart quite well. So a possibility of net zero by the next election.
https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2057384176865681632
Stunned, appalled, shocked etc to see actual tax reform from a politician. This from Wes Streeting today.
A thread on why capital gains tax is broken. It's too low AND too high. & why this is a good proposal.
It's been amusing to read a bunch of Tories calling Streeting a twat for proposing what was once That heroes orthodoxy.
Of course Lawson wouldn't have been quite so keen on raising the top rate of tax.
He preferred VAT.
"It’s connected to Mr Farage’s historic and current political campaigning activity, and not to any trade, profession, employment or office that he carries on or holds."
This actually *beats* the Bowes projections, which I posted earlier, that many seemed sceptical of. We are on track for three years of negative net migration in the run up to the 2029 GE.
Burnham really needs to stick with what Mahmood is doing.
Another factor is that a fair number of British nationals emigrating seem to be the children of earlier Polish immigrants who are returning to Poland due to the strength of the Polish economy.
The ONS give some details here.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/ukemigrationexplainedwhatweknowaboutbritsmovingabroad/2026-05-21
Then you have to refill the supply chains. Lots of stuff emptied or shut in.
So you have multiple months from restart to back to normal, built in.
On Mahmood, she seems to be the choice of Home Secretary by Burnham
All he needs to do is win 4 weeks today
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/20/burnham-to-back-shabana-mahmoods-immigration-changes-allies-say?CMP=share_btn_url
If I didn't know you better, I'd say that your "more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger" support for the hard right might just be fairly naked racism... So I think you should explain your thinking here.
Labour can say headline figure well down and less asylum seeks in hotels, Mahmood doing a good job. Although the wider PLP don't like Mahmoods sticking to "hardline" immigration policy (it isn't particularly hardline IMO). Be interesting to see if Burnham sticks with her.
Tories can say that was our policy, but Labour policies still driving too many educated / high earner away. In YE December 2025, 246,000 British nationals left the UK, a slight decline of 4% from the updated YE December 2024 estimates of 257,000. 250k that's a lot of people still leaving.
Reform can say still too high, aslyum claims are up and Labour doing some jiggery pokery with "hotels" just moving people to HMOs. Also, still 700k in which is very high number, of which 625k are non-EU (dog whistle).
Green can say "open borders", "hug the world", Mahmood is giving in to the right wing media, stifling the NHS, universities etc as not allowing enough people in.
Lib Dems can say look how EU immigration has totally closed, Brexit bad. Undo Brexit, get more skilled EU people in, then require less non-EU immigrants. Three cheers all round for more Polish plumbers and Estonain nannies.
Restore, one immigrant is one too many, we should be pursing re-immigration.
Quite why the government thought it sensible even to try has yet to be explained.
With Streeting harming back to 1980s Lawson, maybe Reeves though going back an extra decade might be a good idea ...
(Apologies; I see you were talking about Mamdani. One of his odder ideas.)
My guess is that this is irrational complacency, but perhaps actors in the market know more than me about the special measures being deployed to build oil pipelines bypassing the Strait in record time.
That reading significantly undershot the 51.6 consensus forecast from Reuters-polled economists. Services saw the sharpest activity decline since January 2021, with the overall reading the lowest outside the pandemic in nearly a decade. S&P Global’s Chris Williamson said there is a “perfect storm” of political uncertainty compounding the economic fallout from Iran…
Firms reported falling output, surging inflation, supply shortages, and job cuts, with weaker investment sentiment and delayed consumer spending decisions.
Net migration has fallen 82%.
I promised to restore control to our borders. My government is delivering.
I know there’s more to do, we’re introducing a skills-based migration system that rewards contribution and ends our reliance on cheap overseas workers.
The Canadian stores have got better (I was there a couple of months ago), but better in terms of if you like hipster small brewery IPA type beers, and still nowhere near as good as US which has undergo an absolute revolution in the quality of craft beer. Base price is very high if all you want is piss water.
Which puts more reliance on Trump's common sense and reliability than I am comfortable with.
I hold substantial unrealised gains from the US tech boom but since the 2024 budget changes I’ve capped my annual disposals at £50k to avoid triggering the higher rate. That means a large portion of capital is effectively stranded until CGT falls or I relocate abroad.
Since 2024, I’ve been approached twice to seed promising UK startups. Both times, I've declined because investing would push me over the threshold. In total, I’ve turned down £250k+ in domestic investment. That's capital that could have funded British business instead of remaining parked in US markets. One of those businesses did very well. The other failed. But 2023's budget changes were enough to adjust my risk/reward profile so I did not invest.
Where it really gets interesting is if CGT becomes treated as ordinary income. So if I earn £50k from work, I’d instantly face a 40% rate on any asset sales. The rational response in my case would be to stop working entirely and live off the £50k allowance at the lower band, effectively stepping out of the workforce until retirement age. For someone with two decades left in their career, that’s another direct blow to UK productivity. Nice for me, though.
However, in all honesty, I doubt I’ll stick around to see how it plays out. If cashing out equity gains before markets peak becomes my priority, options like EU non-lucrative visas, golden residence schemes, or the Crown Dependencies will suddenly look far more attractive, expensive yes but still cheaper than paying UK tax rates. If an exit tax is even hinted at, I’ll be long gone. These policies are always telegraphed well in advance.
My main reason for being in the UK at the moment is long term illness (I have private healthcare by the way, so not even burdening the NHS!) and not really wanting to navigate foreign systems while sick. Being able to cash in some of my investments both to reduce my workload and pay for private healthcare has been a real boon.
TL;DR: I will never pay 40%+ CGT. If it’s implemented, I’ll either stay under the threshold indefinitely or leave. The damage is already done - my behaviour has already shifted since 2024, resulting in less capital flowing into UK business.
If people don't like that or think me unpatriotic I'd point out I've already paid more in taxes by midlife than most people will earn in a lifetime, and I have private healthcare and no kids so really take very little from the state. I will not pay a penny more.
Furthermore, they can see a government conducting a civil war in cabinet and with it's mps, so much so they have lost credibility to govern and want Starmer gone
My hope is Burnham wins, and in so doing resets the agenda and I want him to succeed and beat off the Reform and Green challenge
The country deserves better, much better, and if this experiment fails then goodness knows what happens next
I support Burnham endorsing Mahmood's stance on immigration and also a wealth tax and complete overhaul of council tax
I do support Kemi, as I am of the opinion she will temper the extremes of Farage as there will always be a right in politics, just not far right
This NY idea is going to be competing with Wal-Mart, Target, and Costco, plus many smaller grocery shops. Good luck with that.
The NY grocery market is pretty competitive.
The Mamdani markets won't pay rent or property taxes (which account for a lot of overhead in NY), so are heavily subsidised competition.
If there are more than a handful of them, it will cause serious distortions with unpredictable effects.
Subsidising food banks would be a more sensible alternative, IMO.
They were desperately poor, living off various forms of handout. Eventually one of them got a job near Gatwick, and they all headed down there.
I don’t dislike them. Their teenage lad was quite amusing, he played drums in my band at church. I don't wish them any ill, but the sad reality was that they didn't really get how the UK works, they were a massive net drain on both the taxpayer and also other social networks (our church put huge resources into supporting them), and unfortunately they probably would be better off back in Nigeria.
*Examines copious amounts of chichi knick knacks that will need to be wrapped up*
Ok, maybe not quite yet.
You don't have to be a narcissistic wannabe dictator to find accepting failure difficult, though I'm sure it helps.
In any event the objection is not about tax; it's that Farage took a massive bung from overseas and failed to declare it.
I think governments are well aware of the risks of inflation linked to the crisis, but I don't think food price capping is a sensible policy. Maybe in the late 60s air miles on food was less of a thing and we were more self sufficient then. Its a global market now
Jarvis said fuel production had increased in Norway, West Africa and the Americas, while "refining capacity for jet fuel has also increased substantially outside of the Gulf region".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgplpd7px4o
Literally.
I told them “chill out, it will probably be fine, the industry vibe is more relaxed than you realise. Go ahead and book”
Good advice, it seems
https://x.com/NeilDotObrien/status/2057399309759291472?s=20
So we had 129,980 asylum seekers & Afghans in Home Office accommodation in Summer 2024 and now have more - 136,136.
https://x.com/NeilDotObrien/status/2057386142446596332?s=20
The dandelion effect - Labour are moving asylum seekers out of urban areas and into dispersal accommodation in the suburbs & shires.
So most areas have seen an increase since Summer 24 - places with an increase are shown in blue below:
https://x.com/NeilDotObrien/status/2057389573362115072?s=20
Because I really am drinking more coffee - about twice as much - simply because the cans are so much more pleasurable to use. Lovely historic delicate beautiful noomy
I’ve been scouring the psych literature looking for a theory that covers this phenomenon. I can’t really find one. Affordance Theory and Cathedral Effect come close, but don’t really map it entirely
Fascinating
..............And what a guilty face!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKboWQHtgr0
It's one where having a "commons" is a plus 20 for everyone, which can be undermined by a small number feeling that they get a personal plus 0.5 at the cost of a community minus 5.
ISTM that it works very similarly to vaccines and corporate immunity.
Also Bob Vylan is the band name, not the individual, they rather wankerly go by stage names of Bobby Vylan and Bobbie Vylan, rather than Pascal Robinson-Foster and Wade George. At the end of the day, poundshop Rage Against the Machine.
You have “Attachment Pathology”. Recent research (Beetz, Williams) suggests zoophiles - eg practisers of “man dog physical love” - often report difficulty with human intimacy - they have anxious or avoidant attachment styles, social anxiety, and/or histories of human relational trauma. The loved pet animal, in this case a ravished dog, is experienced as safer, non-judgmental, and unconditional. The relationship is, consequently, partly displaced human attachment
Does that ring true?
As far as I'm concerned, it's seriously dodgy that foreign domiciled billionaires are allowed to interfere in our politics with such huge bungs, and dodgier still that Farage tried to keep it secret.
AIUI he has some special diet or yoga thing to which he ascribes his healthy longevity
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/5/20/massie-defeated-the-israel-lobbys-pyrrhic-victory-in-kentucky
Overreach on Trump and the Israeli lobby's part, as the article suggests? Dunno, but it certainly shows what a disastrous impact Trump 2 has had on US democracy. The media, justice dept, etc all completely corrupted by the Trump crowd, all of whom have been granted immunity in advance by Trump who will issue a blanket pardon to his favourites before he steps down.
Rachel Reeves is tarnished goods and too closely associated with Starmer. Absolutely no way she will continue.
Streeting is floating some smart, Burnham-adjacent ideas on taxation. He's also popularly viewed as centre-right so would probably pacify the almighty bond markets.
There are moderately good odds on Betfair Exchange if you feel so moved.
The object still needs to be able to do the job, of course. No point buying a pair of 1950's batting gloves and hoping not to get broken fingers, for instance.