Why abolishing the triple lock would be political suicide – politicalbetting.com
Why abolishing the triple lock would be political suicide – politicalbetting.com
There is strong public support for keeping the pensions triple lock – but is there any willingness to adjust it?A YouGov experiment finds the public split on a 'double lock', against a 'single lock', and the most supported proposal is to make it more generousyougov.com/en-gb/articl…
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Like those over retirement age apparently.
Rebadge it. And reduce it.
People usually want more money spent on them, until the costs are spelt out, which in a full public debate on the subject, presumably they would be. Public spending choices aren't about one thing in isolation, they're about making an acceptable use of limited (these days, very limited) resources.
The real question should be something like "Do you support keeping the triple lock even though welfare spending is taking up more and more of our national income, taxes are at a record high and throttling growth and the young are stuggling under more and more debt?"
Then we'd have an idea of where public opinion would be if and when the debate is ever fully joined.
I could name names...
Opinion polling is not a good way to get people’s considered views after a full public debate. Opinion polling gets you 5 seconds of thought, maybe less. You can’t fix that with longer questions.
It will only happen if cross-party. Like 'fixing social care' and several other things.
The questions should be - at some point the triple lock is going to requires taxes to rise. Are you willing to pay?
"Er hold on, you mean I'll be paying more and more in taxes to fund it but never receive it?"
I thought at one time Jack Draper could but he’s played so little tennis and he has his own injury problems .
Personal update: I've joined Anthropic.
https://x.com/karpathy/status/2056753169888334312?s=20
I bet his pay package will make plenty of Premier League players jealous.
At some point it will no longer be fiscally sustainable & a government will be forced to pull the rip cord, probably by some externally imposed crisis. Until that time, the old age pension will continue to eat an ever larger proportion of government expenditure.
Every politician knows, or ought to know, that the triple lock in unsustainable. None of them are willing to admit it in public because the voting public simply doesn’t want to hear it.
https://x.com/nytimes/status/2056756299363127705?s=20
Unlike the WFA, which was taking away something that people currently receive, changing the triple lock simply alters the extra that people might get in the future. Despite this polling, I doubt the furore over changing the lock so that pensions simply track earnings, or inflation, would cause anything like as much grief as did taking away the WFA.
The vibes of being less generous to the retired than they were to their parents just don't bear thinking about. I blame St Winifred's School Choir, Clive Dunn and those Werther's Originals adverts.
state-funded sectors: +114,000. 4.8% wage growth.
https://x.com/ColeFusionHQ/status/2056628397221048660?s=20
That leaves unanswered: by how much will taxes have to rise? On whom? When?
But anyway, I think the main point is that YouGov's question and the associated answers don't tell us much about what public opinion would be if the costs and benefits of the Triple Lock were spelled out to them. Opinion pollsters aren't trained to think these things through, so you probably won't ever get a rigorous question.
Of course, our current crop of politicians, who, in their cowardice, incompetence and short-termism make Jim Hacker look like Margaret Thatcher, will only see the slick YouGov presentation, think "Oh shit, I mustn't touch this" and avoid it like the plague.
So nothing will be done until it's absolutely necessary, or indeed some time after that...
Retailers are said to be "furious" at the Government's effort, which is aimed at limiting the impact of inflation
https://www.ft.com/content/85736371-40bc-4ec1-a502-4f557d3a68b0
The government do realise that UK supermarkets are super competitive when it comes to food where margins are very slim and they already squeezed the hell out of suppliers.
https://x.com/theReformwatch/status/2056733362828587243
Subsidising demand does nothing to help inflation when you have price pressures upstream.
The SNP one is especially bonkers
Told there may be some other issues surrounding Robert Kenyon that might raise serious questions about Reform’s vetting processes.
Lol
* No, being a lawyer doesn't count.
Who the fuck is Gemma Collins? Looks like Diana Dors in the Worm that Turned with extra booziness.
Basically we haven’t paid enough to cover the cost of the current pension so Triple Lock rewards people who haven’t contributed enough.
At the same time Pension Credit is based on needs. So it is set at subsistence level. The fact that PC and SRP are at almost the same level indicates the amount of underpayment to pensions that has happened.
And as MalcolmG rightly points out PC gets you more than the SRP in certain circumstances. Past fiscal policies have never recognised developments in longevity so here we are.
Andy Burnham’s team is working on a plan for his first 100 days in government in the event that he wins a crunch by-election and replaces Keir Starmer, three people tell me
The plan is in its early stages but is likely to include reforms to the creaking social care system
Already doing more planning than Sue Gray
Ryan Coogan, the newly elected Reform UK councillor for Ramsey, and group leader on Huntingdonshire District Council, is under investigation following the recent local elections on May 7.
A spokesman for Cambridgeshire Police said: "We are investigating an allegation of false statements on a candidate nomination paper and the investigation is ongoing."
Keir Starmer was in the SHADOW CABINET under Jeremy fucking Corbyn
RefUK 25(-3),
CON 18(+1),
LAB 17(+1),
GRN 15(-1)
LDEM 14(+1),
https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2056600843181236522
Anywhere to bet on a Labour lead under Burnham? Surely due one at the start at least
Logistically I can't see minimum pricing working. Supermarkets telling suppliers to lower their costs will only result in a massive headache in the supply chain. Our bigger problems lie with an orange faced Head of State on the other side of the Atlantic
Reform UK’s Candidate for #Makerfield Robert Kenyon (
@Makerfield_RFK
) deleted his old account - we assume because he reposted a lot of far-right stuff.
Like Carl Benjamin, Peter Sweden and Wayne O’Rouke who was imprisoned after inciting violence during the Southport Riots.
Kenyon himself posted an 11 post thread trying to defend Reform UK when a member of his campaign team was found to have caused criminal damage in the riots.
(And was briefly taught by my ex when she was a teenager).
SNP 1/5
Lab 5/1
Should be an easy SNP hold if anyone fancies tying their money up
Aberdeen south is tighter
SNP 1/3
Con 11/4 (Tory candidate is newly re elected MSP Douglas Lumsden)
Reform 11/1
Lab 14/1
Labour were second at 2024 GE but will fall back after the Holyrood result. This one is much closer, but likely to be an SNP hold over Tories, unless enough Reform voters back the blues to unseat the SNP.
Well played Andy Burnham for sitting both of these contests out
Will this be back on agenda?
At the moment Casey is doing a report on social care but not due until 2028.
Edit: And also, coincidentally (?), Fabians are releasing a report this week on social care.
Though fair to say the Acropolis museum is not a fan of Lord Elgin and the British Museum. Even leaving spaces in its marbles display for where the missing pieces are, though given some of them were quite weather beaten maybe his Lordship did his best to conserve them after all
It’s then over to the govt to review with findings due just prior to the next election
Anyway, I've done my best to ensure my sons and grandchildren can look after themselves.
I’d also expect them to keep the 10 year rule (unwritten)
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056769036390633863
EXCLUSIVE: Andy Burnham won’t commit to keeping Labour’s manifesto promises on tax and has opened the door to new tax rises if he becomes PM.
His decision to back the current fiscal rules wins him a reprieve from markets, but it limits his options to fund policies like council house-building. It raises the prospect of tax hikes.
What to do?
Also be nice to your children. They pick your care home.
Rather fascistic didn't you think?
About 100% of respondents are or expect to be recipients of this pension money thing. They are not averse to it going up in principle. No-one is. The question is a blunt one. For the poorest pensioners it should actually go up a lot. For many others (including me) it should be taxed more rigorously. That level of nuance can't be achieved in a Yes/No answer to a general question about support.
What the fuck is that about? Why?? What stupid Woke nonsense is this? We need to chopper the SAS in and secure the museum, take all the art and stuff, and whizz it back to the British Museum, where it can be properly admired. And we have to keep the Bayeux Tapestry once we get our hands on it, and also take the Book of Kells from Dublin because it's nice. And Aquitaine
Indeed the public Sector saw a net increase, over 110,000, in the job figures out today even though there was a decline overall.
https://x.com/colefusionhq/status/2056628397221048660?s=61
Indeed the public Sector saw a net increase, over 110,000, in the job figures out today even though there was a decline overall.
https://x.com/colefusionhq/status/2056628397221048660?s=61
Trump endorses Ken Paxton.
Another daft Americanism.
Screen one depending on your location asks
Con/Lab/Lib Dem/Reform/Green/Other/Would Not Vote
If you choose Other then Restore are prompted there.
I asked my Human Resources Officer and she just said ‘do the math’