Skip to content

Who will be the official opposition after the next election? – politicalbetting.com

13567

Comments

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    Taz said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Heard Burnham on TV while getting my haircut.

    Rather a negative speech I thought.

    And a fair bit of Southerner bashing which may play well in Manchester but seems a bit of a hostage to fortune if he has to win a nationwide election.

    Burnham's younger than Starmer, but by less than you might think; 56 rather than 63.

    His mental map of the country's politics is just as out-of-date, though. The typical Labour voter isn't an older northerner any more, they've got a degree, live in somewhere like Stevenage, do something in front of a computer screen as a job and would really like to buy a house and have children someday.

    Electorally, that ought to be brilliant because there are loads of people like that. But Labour are really struggling to come to terms with the realisation that their heritage voters are .. heritage.
    The average Labour voter has got a degree and lives in a slightly bleak, cramped new build near Hitchin and they get up at 6am to commute for 90 minutes into central London so that their taxes can pay for the millionaire First Lady of Sierra Leone to have a chic and cheap council flat in Southwark which is now occupied by her nepo children

    And yet, despite all this, they keep voting Labour. They deserve what they get
    Sadly Kinabalu was unimpressed with you and William posting tweets related to it !!
    I just didn't like seeing them get in each other's way like that. Waste of far-right propagandist talent.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    Makerfield will be interesting.

    We have no constituency polling yet. We have only the Ipsos survey for the North West.

    Burnham's approval rating is 48%, compared to 30% for Farage. I imagine that Burnham will match that 48% in Makerfield, and Farage will exceed 30%,.

    OTOH, Labour has 22% approval in the NW, whereas Reform has 31%. I expect that in Makerfield, Reform's rating will be higher than 31%.

    Sot, it will come down to whether people will wish to bash Labour, or will they be willing to go for a popular Labour candidate.

    You assume that Reform are going to get the votes, yet Restore's candidate is local and is going to eat into Reform's polling..
    Restore will be polling in three figures.
    9/1 with the bookmakers apparently.

    Lay them whilst you can.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,693

    rkrkrk said:

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056403137380917508

    ***EXCLUSIVE*** Andy Burnham fully rules out changing Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules if he becomes PM

    At the weekend his team had left it open whether he might change them in future

    But tonight his spokesperson tells Bloomberg he is explicitly ruling out any changes to the existing fiscal rules

    AND crucially Burnham is now also ruling out exempting defence spending from the fiscal rules to spend more on the military

    Fair play to Burnham for not going populist on this.
    Nah, going populist is wrong but so is assuming only one set of arbitrary fiscal rules is suitable. The current set up doesn't work and we need to be able to invest more.
    The fiscal rules already create more space for investment as the binding rule relates to current spending, excluding investment. The rules are absolutely fine, the problems are a failure to grow the economy, higher global interest rates and relentless fiscal pressures caused by population ageing.
    It's all a facade. We produce predictions based on things like increasing fuel duty every year to show that we will balance the books in x years time. We never actually increase the fuel duty but the spreadsheet that says we will somehow keeps people happy.
    I am not a fan of fiscal rules, personally. What we actually need is an electorate who cares about sound public finances and will discipline politicians appropriately. In the absence of that, you are left with fiscal rules that are either so rigid as to be counterproductive or so lax as to be easily gameable. My argument that the fiscal rules are "fine" is that they are not the cause of our economic malaise so fiddling with them is a waste of energy.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,667
    Leon..etc may have acquired a neanderthal axe, but Burnham has rediscovered the missing Ming vase
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,317
    kinabalu said:

    Just to stress something here. Labour are not changing the PM because of policy direction. Ok it might lead to policy change (most likely a shift left within borrowing constraints) but that isn't what this is all about. The change is being made because the public have taken a visceral dislike to Keir Starmer. Andy Burnham is being embraced not because he's 'soft left' - or anything left - but because he polls miles better than any other big name Labour politician and he's up for doing it.

    Yeah, we get all that. But its insufficient and temporary. If they want to be re-elected they have to do a fair bit more as well as communicate better, which Burnham should be fine at - although the last couple of days has not been encouraging on that front either. He needs to keep options open and sell the direction he believes we should travel to, not get trapped by the constraints of the status quo.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016
    edited May 18

    rkrkrk said:

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056403137380917508

    ***EXCLUSIVE*** Andy Burnham fully rules out changing Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules if he becomes PM

    At the weekend his team had left it open whether he might change them in future

    But tonight his spokesperson tells Bloomberg he is explicitly ruling out any changes to the existing fiscal rules

    AND crucially Burnham is now also ruling out exempting defence spending from the fiscal rules to spend more on the military

    Fair play to Burnham for not going populist on this.
    Nah, going populist is wrong but so is assuming only one set of arbitrary fiscal rules is suitable. The current set up doesn't work and we need to be able to invest more.
    The fiscal rules already create more space for investment as the binding rule relates to current spending, excluding investment. The rules are absolutely fine, the problems are a failure to grow the economy, higher global interest rates and relentless fiscal pressures caused by population ageing.
    It's all a facade. We produce predictions based on things like increasing fuel duty every year to show that we will balance the books in x years time. We never actually increase the fuel duty but the spreadsheet that says we will somehow keeps people happy.
    Yes. On the one hand this shows that the bond market are really generous. But on the other, it shows that we've spent years using all of their generosity for immediate tax cuts and spending increases, and so the room for manoeuvre has shrunk.

    I still can't quite get my head round the absurdity of the Tories cutting national insurance when Hunt was Chancellor. Very much a scorched earth policy.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    edited May 18
    Tom Forth is doing some interesting digging into the Manchester Myth, if anyone is interested.

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2056047335327617318?s=20
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,207

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "I lived in an upscale apartment complex in Lagos, and several of the residents had council flats in the UK which they were subletting. They admitted that they couldn’t believe they were able to get away with it, and asked if Brits were retarded."

    https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20

    Meanwhile

    "The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."

    https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20

    This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK

    I was told five years ago: about this

    Nothing will happen to stop it or change it.

    The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.

    When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees

    😃😃😃😃
    It will stop when we get a Reform government. No other party has the desire or the bollocks. That is why you, we, all of us, must vote Reform

    The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
    Meanwhile man with no right to work here wins an employment tribunal !!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/18/migrant-wins-employment-tribunal/
    Clearly you didn't read the article as the second paragraph reads

    Erin Ong is in line for compensation after winning the tribunal in Britain, even though she did not have a work permit and was only on a visitor’s visa when she was managing a hotel in the UK.

    To be honest, I actually think this is valid, the employer failed to check immigration status and abused the worker by making her do things she shouldn't have been doing due to her aliments.
    Yes, I have seen worse cases of Wokeness gone mad, like, er, this, from yesterday


    "A trans Indian student elected to Holyrood wants Scottish taxpayers to fund reparations to Palestinians because of their “complicity” in the “occupation” of the territory.

    Q Manivannan was elected as a Green Party MSP on the Edinburgh & Lothians East list for the pro-independence Scottish Greens last week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/17/trans-indian-msp-wants-scots-to-pay-palestine-reparations/?recomm_id=e6eb9e25-2809-48b1-9e0d-4fb0ec9cdfc8
    TSE should run a header on AV and the benefits of list systems. You would not want the great unwashed voting out unpopular MSPs.
  • https://x.com/TheRealJamieKay/status/2056002588655358164/video/1

    These people only care when it is immigrants committing crimes. Because if they cared about crimes in general a lot of their own would also be in jail.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314
    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,196

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That won’t happen unless the Tories eventually adopt woke because there’s a good 30%+ of us wokeys
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    For that they would need to reject Brexit but Streeting is already pushing Rejoin the EU and such a position would just see even more Tory Leave voters go Reform.

    Plus Burnham and the Greens occupy the left
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    You would need Your Party to do better so that the left-wing vote was split further to achieve that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    Brixian59 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I think the Tories will be 4th biggest Party after Reform,, Lab, LD, in England at next GE. Maybe 5th after Greens.

    Tories 5th or 6th in Wales and 3rd at best in Scotland.

    Max 40 seats.

    I envisage massive tactical voting on centre left for around 330 ish

    Reform ball park 250 to 260. Mot enough with Tories to have power

    Nats would support Progressive Alliance if needed
    The Tories could survive as third party, if they are 4th on seats or worse Farage will take them over within a decide with the remaining One Nation Tories going LD.
  • geoffw said:

    Leon..etc may have acquired a neanderthal axe, but Burnham has rediscovered the missing Ming vase

    Yes but just LOOK AT MY CHOPPER

    Isn’t that majestic? 50,000 years ago some highly skilled Homo Neanderthal dude sat down by a river in the Dordogne. Which was then a cold steppeland inhabited by woolly mammoth, woolly rhinoceros, aurochs, megaloceros and cave bear. He noticed a nodule of flint and saw its potential and began knapping. Carefully working around the stone until he achieved an edge so fine it is translucent in the light

    Very soon after than he must have dropped it. As the edge is unbroken and barely used - and you wouldn’t throw away something this fine. He would have grunted a Neanderthal curse, perhaps. Or maybe he died with his new axe in his hand, fighting off hyenas or wolves or cave lions. Who knows?

    Extraordinary


  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,196

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    You would need Your Party to do better so that the left-wing vote was split further to achieve that.
    And it’s not really “two party politics” if it’s purely as a result of a split left/woke vote. It would just be a temporary state of affairs until the wokeys unite or infiltrate.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,160
    I think we need to factor in the level of tactical voting against Farage and his blackshirts. It will be brutal for them…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632

    rkrkrk said:

    Heard Burnham on TV while getting my haircut.

    Rather a negative speech I thought.

    And a fair bit of Southerner bashing which may play well in Manchester but seems a bit of a hostage to fortune if he has to win a nationwide election.

    Burnham's younger than Starmer, but by less than you might think; 56 rather than 63.

    His mental map of the country's politics is just as out-of-date, though. The typical Labour voter isn't an older northerner any more, they've got a degree, live in somewhere like Stevenage, do something in front of a computer screen as a job and would really like to buy a house and have children someday.

    Electorally, that ought to be brilliant because there are loads of people like that. But Labour are really struggling to come to terms with the realisation that their heritage voters are .. heritage.
    Yes but Burnham knows without winning most Northern working class voters, as they still did in 2024, Labour has no chance of another majority. At best it could scrape a minority government with LD, SNP and Green and Plaid support
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,196
    murali_s said:

    I think we need to factor in the level of tactical voting against Farage and his blackshirts. It will be brutal for them…

    I’m not sure that’s true. The oldies/spitfire brigade love Reform and they vote. The youth don’t vote.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    murali_s said:

    I think we need to factor in the level of tactical voting against Farage and his blackshirts. It will be brutal for them…

    There will be a reaction, but if it were that clear cut they wouldn't be polling so high in the first place.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016
    US extends the sanctions waiver on purchases of Russian oil again. Russia is doing very well out of the Iran War.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-angela-merkel-eu-russia-ukraine-war/

    Germany’s Merkel criticizes EU for not talking to Russia

    It's not actually a very remarkable piece. For what it's worth I'd have no issue with Europeans talking to Putin. The trouble is Trump threw himself in to the middle and so any parallel European initiative would have looked like sabotage. And Putin has suggested Gerhard Schroder as someone who could act as an envoy which suggests he still isn't serious. We might as well suggest some like Garry Kasparov represent Russia.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    murali_s said:

    I think we need to factor in the level of tactical voting against Farage and his blackshirts. It will be brutal for them…

    Only if Labour replace Starmer as their leader, who has worse negative ratings even than Farage
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314
    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,681
    MaxPB said:

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056403137380917508

    ***EXCLUSIVE*** Andy Burnham fully rules out changing Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules if he becomes PM

    At the weekend his team had left it open whether he might change them in future

    But tonight his spokesperson tells Bloomberg he is explicitly ruling out any changes to the existing fiscal rules

    AND crucially Burnham is now also ruling out exempting defence spending from the fiscal rules to spend more on the military

    No change with the EU relationship and no change to the economy, exactly what is Burnham going to do differently?!
    What SKS did differently to the Conservatives - be someone else.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,631

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "I lived in an upscale apartment complex in Lagos, and several of the residents had council flats in the UK which they were subletting. They admitted that they couldn’t believe they were able to get away with it, and asked if Brits were retarded."

    https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20

    Meanwhile

    "The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."

    https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20

    This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK

    I was told five years ago: about this

    Nothing will happen to stop it or change it.

    The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.

    When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees

    😃😃😃😃
    It will stop when we get a Reform government. No other party has the desire or the bollocks. That is why you, we, all of us, must vote Reform

    The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
    Meanwhile man with no right to work here wins an employment tribunal !!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/18/migrant-wins-employment-tribunal/
    Clearly you didn't read the article as the second paragraph reads

    Erin Ong is in line for compensation after winning the tribunal in Britain, even though she did not have a work permit and was only on a visitor’s visa when she was managing a hotel in the UK.

    To be honest, I actually think this is valid, the employer failed to check immigration status and abused the worker by making her do things she shouldn't have been doing due to her aliments.
    Yes, I have seen worse cases of Wokeness gone mad, like, er, this, from yesterday


    "A trans Indian student elected to Holyrood wants Scottish taxpayers to fund reparations to Palestinians because of their “complicity” in the “occupation” of the territory.

    Q Manivannan was elected as a Green Party MSP on the Edinburgh & Lothians East list for the pro-independence Scottish Greens last week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/17/trans-indian-msp-wants-scots-to-pay-palestine-reparations/?recomm_id=e6eb9e25-2809-48b1-9e0d-4fb0ec9cdfc8
    Quite a few in labour do.

    There’s an all party political group dedicated to it.

    There was a conference on it last year and the legal people behind some of the so-called equal pay shakedowns, Leigh Day, were a sponsor of it as are a few NGO’s who will benefit from it.

    Dig deep Sir, it’s not going away and the Greens are sympathetic too.

    https://www.appg-ar.org/uk-reparations-conference-2025-register
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,499
    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I think GIN maybe right in thinking Reform need to get in and catastrophically implode in government for the Tories to get a hearing again.
    For the pro-EU left, however, it's very much a case of being careful what you wish for in terms of wanting the Tories punished for their sins, because there's no chance of us ever going back into the EU if Reform become the permanent right wing party. Whereas the Wets might have actually been able to get back control of the Tories and moved it to a more pro-EU position.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
  • Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "I lived in an upscale apartment complex in Lagos, and several of the residents had council flats in the UK which they were subletting. They admitted that they couldn’t believe they were able to get away with it, and asked if Brits were retarded."

    https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20

    Meanwhile

    "The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."

    https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20

    This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK

    I was told five years ago: about this

    Nothing will happen to stop it or change it.

    The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.

    When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees

    😃😃😃😃
    It will stop when we get a Reform government. No other party has the desire or the bollocks. That is why you, we, all of us, must vote Reform

    The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
    Meanwhile man with no right to work here wins an employment tribunal !!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/18/migrant-wins-employment-tribunal/
    Clearly you didn't read the article as the second paragraph reads

    Erin Ong is in line for compensation after winning the tribunal in Britain, even though she did not have a work permit and was only on a visitor’s visa when she was managing a hotel in the UK.

    To be honest, I actually think this is valid, the employer failed to check immigration status and abused the worker by making her do things she shouldn't have been doing due to her aliments.
    Yes, I have seen worse cases of Wokeness gone mad, like, er, this, from yesterday


    "A trans Indian student elected to Holyrood wants Scottish taxpayers to fund reparations to Palestinians because of their “complicity” in the “occupation” of the territory.

    Q Manivannan was elected as a Green Party MSP on the Edinburgh & Lothians East list for the pro-independence Scottish Greens last week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/17/trans-indian-msp-wants-scots-to-pay-palestine-reparations/?recomm_id=e6eb9e25-2809-48b1-9e0d-4fb0ec9cdfc8
    Quite a few in labour do.

    There’s an all party political group dedicated to it.

    There was a conference on it last year and the legal people behind some of the so-called equal pay shakedowns, Leigh Day, were a sponsor of it as are a few NGO’s who will benefit from it.

    Dig deep Sir, it’s not going away and the Greens are sympathetic too.

    https://www.appg-ar.org/uk-reparations-conference-2025-register
    There is a reckoning coming, for these people. They are parasites
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016
    KCIII will visit Ireland on a state visit next year after accepting an invitation from President Catherine Connolly when the two met in Buckingham Palace today.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,400
    kinabalu said:

    Just to stress something here. Labour are not changing the PM because of policy direction. Ok it might lead to policy change (most likely a shift left within borrowing constraints) but that isn't what this is all about. The change is being made because the public have taken a visceral dislike to Keir Starmer. Andy Burnham is being embraced not because he's 'soft left' - or anything left - but because he polls miles better than any other big name Labour politician and he's up for doing it.

    Better comms and more competent decision-making is probably at the upper end of realistic expectations.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,631
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056403137380917508

    ***EXCLUSIVE*** Andy Burnham fully rules out changing Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules if he becomes PM

    At the weekend his team had left it open whether he might change them in future

    But tonight his spokesperson tells Bloomberg he is explicitly ruling out any changes to the existing fiscal rules

    AND crucially Burnham is now also ruling out exempting defence spending from the fiscal rules to spend more on the military

    Major tax rises incoming then.

    A so called wealth tax for one, higher rate of income tax for top earners. Dividend and savings interest taxed at same rate as income tax. For starters.

    Savings interest is taxed at income rate levels.

    Sod all point raising the dividend rate any higher - it's already cheaper to pay yourself via PAYE rather than dividends if you have an employee or 2 and can make use the employer's allowance.
    Savings interest and dividend tax free allowance to go then.

    When I contracted I used a composite then a brolly. I reckon a good 50% of my contracts would be inside IR35
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,693

    US extends the sanctions waiver on purchases of Russian oil again. Russia is doing very well out of the Iran War.

    With Putin's guy in the White House why should we expect anything else. Let's hope we don't get Putin's guy in Number 10.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    edited May 18
    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    Except in seats the Tories held in 2024, in Tory v Reform seats 45% of LDs, a third of Labour and a quarter of Green voters would vote Tory to beat Reform according to Yougov
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546

    kinabalu said:

    Just to stress something here. Labour are not changing the PM because of policy direction. Ok it might lead to policy change (most likely a shift left within borrowing constraints) but that isn't what this is all about. The change is being made because the public have taken a visceral dislike to Keir Starmer. Andy Burnham is being embraced not because he's 'soft left' - or anything left - but because he polls miles better than any other big name Labour politician and he's up for doing it.

    Yeah, we get all that. But its insufficient and temporary. If they want to be re-elected they have to do a fair bit more as well as communicate better, which Burnham should be fine at - although the last couple of days has not been encouraging on that front either. He needs to keep options open and sell the direction he believes we should travel to, not get trapped by the constraints of the status quo.
    That's what he's trying to do, I think. Create an authentic sounding vibe of 'on the side of working people' (which SKS cannot) whilst keeping policy options open - other than the option of ditching fiscal responsibility which isn't in any case an option.

    As to how it plays out if he wins, god knows. The main thing is it disrupts the narrative of Reform marching inexorably to power. It's then down to him to exploit this. To head off Farage. I just hope he does win and therefore gets the opportunity to either succeed or fail in this mission of the utmost national importance.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 34,040

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I think GIN maybe right in thinking Reform need to get in and catastrophically implode in government for the Tories to get a hearing again.
    For the pro-EU left, however, it's very much a case of being careful what you wish for in terms of wanting the Tories punished for their sins, because there's no chance of us ever going back into the EU if Reform become the permanent right wing party. Whereas the Wets might have actually been able to get back control of the Tories and moved it to a more pro-EU position.
    How many wets are left in the Conservative Party to take back control?
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,631
    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Heard Burnham on TV while getting my haircut.

    Rather a negative speech I thought.

    And a fair bit of Southerner bashing which may play well in Manchester but seems a bit of a hostage to fortune if he has to win a nationwide election.

    Burnham's younger than Starmer, but by less than you might think; 56 rather than 63.

    His mental map of the country's politics is just as out-of-date, though. The typical Labour voter isn't an older northerner any more, they've got a degree, live in somewhere like Stevenage, do something in front of a computer screen as a job and would really like to buy a house and have children someday.

    Electorally, that ought to be brilliant because there are loads of people like that. But Labour are really struggling to come to terms with the realisation that their heritage voters are .. heritage.
    The average Labour voter has got a degree and lives in a slightly bleak, cramped new build near Hitchin and they get up at 6am to commute for 90 minutes into central London so that their taxes can pay for the millionaire First Lady of Sierra Leone to have a chic and cheap council flat in Southwark which is now occupied by her nepo children

    And yet, despite all this, they keep voting Labour. They deserve what they get
    Sadly Kinabalu was unimpressed with you and William posting tweets related to it !!
    I just didn't like seeing them get in each other's way like that. Waste of far-right propagandist talent.
    So the potential abuse of social housing is ‘Far Right’ 🤔

    Hardly a problem for you with all those mansions close by.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "I lived in an upscale apartment complex in Lagos, and several of the residents had council flats in the UK which they were subletting. They admitted that they couldn’t believe they were able to get away with it, and asked if Brits were retarded."

    https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20

    Meanwhile

    "The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."

    https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20

    This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK

    I was told five years ago: about this

    Nothing will happen to stop it or change it.

    The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.

    When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees

    😃😃😃😃
    It will stop when we get a Reform government. No other party has the desire or the bollocks. That is why you, we, all of us, must vote Reform

    The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
    Meanwhile man with no right to work here wins an employment tribunal !!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/18/migrant-wins-employment-tribunal/
    Clearly you didn't read the article as the second paragraph reads

    Erin Ong is in line for compensation after winning the tribunal in Britain, even though she did not have a work permit and was only on a visitor’s visa when she was managing a hotel in the UK.

    To be honest, I actually think this is valid, the employer failed to check immigration status and abused the worker by making her do things she shouldn't have been doing due to her aliments.
    Yes, I have seen worse cases of Wokeness gone mad, like, er, this, from yesterday


    "A trans Indian student elected to Holyrood wants Scottish taxpayers to fund reparations to Palestinians because of their “complicity” in the “occupation” of the territory.

    Q Manivannan was elected as a Green Party MSP on the Edinburgh & Lothians East list for the pro-independence Scottish Greens last week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/17/trans-indian-msp-wants-scots-to-pay-palestine-reparations/?recomm_id=e6eb9e25-2809-48b1-9e0d-4fb0ec9cdfc8
    Quite a few in labour do.

    There’s an all party political group dedicated to it.

    There was a conference on it last year and the legal people behind some of the so-called equal pay shakedowns, Leigh Day, were a sponsor of it as are a few NGO’s who will benefit from it.

    Dig deep Sir, it’s not going away and the Greens are sympathetic too.

    https://www.appg-ar.org/uk-reparations-conference-2025-register
    There is a reckoning coming, for these people. They are parasites
    Unfortunately too many white liberals have suicidal empathy and will continue to vote for higher taxes and less freedom so they can feel as though they're on the right side of history.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,499
    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    They'd basically need to become a pro-EU Blairite party and have someone like Rory Stewart leading it.
    I *might* vote for a Tory party like that if only they could stop Reform. I'm not going anywhere Badenoch's Cosplay Reform Party.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,631
    The Aaron Rai story is amazing.

    I’d never heard of him before

    Even if he doesn’t get SPOTY I hope he gets some recognition.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,829
    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Heard Burnham on TV while getting my haircut.

    Rather a negative speech I thought.

    And a fair bit of Southerner bashing which may play well in Manchester but seems a bit of a hostage to fortune if he has to win a nationwide election.

    Burnham's younger than Starmer, but by less than you might think; 56 rather than 63.

    His mental map of the country's politics is just as out-of-date, though. The typical Labour voter isn't an older northerner any more, they've got a degree, live in somewhere like Stevenage, do something in front of a computer screen as a job and would really like to buy a house and have children someday.

    Electorally, that ought to be brilliant because there are loads of people like that. But Labour are really struggling to come to terms with the realisation that their heritage voters are .. heritage.
    Yes but Burnham knows without winning most Northern working class voters, as they still did in 2024, Labour has no chance of another majority. At best it could scrape a minority government with LD, SNP and Green and Plaid support
    If Labour is not seen as the party that represents the interests of northern working class voters, then we might as well give up.

    Even up here in the frozen wastelands of Yorkshire, the party membership is in no way representative of that demographic. And as for the London-based supper party crowd that form most of the membership, they are absolutely clueless.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,114
    edited May 18

    Better Communication 101.

    IMF says Uk growth to rise from a predicted 0.8% to 1.0% in new Estimates.

    "BRITAINS GROWTH TO SOUR BY A MASSIVE 20% IN JUST ONE YEAR!"

    Peter.

    Pedantic point of order: that's a 25% increase in the growth rate, not 20%.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,631

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    You would need Your Party to do better so that the left-wing vote was split further to achieve that.
    Are they still going ?

    Mind you if Burnham becomes leader he’s rumoured to want to let Jezza back in so that would leave it being run by Zarah,
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568
    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    What's the ECHR got to do with small boats - it's conflagating
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    Except in seats the Tories held in 2024, in Tory v Reform seats 45% of LDs, a third of Labour and a quarter of Green voters would vote Tory to beat Reform according to Yougov
    So the Tories will be fighting to retain 120 seats at most on that basis - they aren't going to improve if the only people willing to transfer their vote to them are in seats where the Tories are the anti-Reform party..
  • eekeek Posts: 34,568
    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    What's the ECHR got to do with small boats - it's conflagating
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    Except in seats the Tories held in 2024, in Tory v Reform seats 45% of LDs, a third of Labour and a quarter of Green voters would vote Tory to beat Reform according to Yougov
    So the Tories will be fighting to retain 120 seats at most on that basis - they aren't going to improve if the only people willing to transfer their vote to them are in seats where the Tories are the anti-Reform party..
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    Taz said:

    The Aaron Rai story is amazing.

    I’d never heard of him before

    Even if he doesn’t get SPOTY I hope he gets some recognition.

    Massive achievement. He won in great style too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Heard Burnham on TV while getting my haircut.

    Rather a negative speech I thought.

    And a fair bit of Southerner bashing which may play well in Manchester but seems a bit of a hostage to fortune if he has to win a nationwide election.

    Burnham's younger than Starmer, but by less than you might think; 56 rather than 63.

    His mental map of the country's politics is just as out-of-date, though. The typical Labour voter isn't an older northerner any more, they've got a degree, live in somewhere like Stevenage, do something in front of a computer screen as a job and would really like to buy a house and have children someday.

    Electorally, that ought to be brilliant because there are loads of people like that. But Labour are really struggling to come to terms with the realisation that their heritage voters are .. heritage.
    Yes but Burnham knows without winning most Northern working class voters, as they still did in 2024, Labour has no chance of another majority. At best it could scrape a minority government with LD, SNP and Green and Plaid support
    If Labour is not seen as the party that represents the interests of northern working class voters, then we might as well give up.

    Even up here in the frozen wastelands of Yorkshire, the party membership is in no way representative of that demographic. And as for the London-based supper party crowd that form most of the membership, they are absolutely clueless.
    Burnham at least gets that, Ed Miliband and Streeting don’t, Starmer sort of did but is too toxic now to achieve it
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    eek said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    What's the ECHR got to do with small boats - it's conflagating
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    Except in seats the Tories held in 2024, in Tory v Reform seats 45% of LDs, a third of Labour and a quarter of Green voters would vote Tory to beat Reform according to Yougov
    So the Tories will be fighting to retain 120 seats at most on that basis - they aren't going to improve if the only people willing to transfer their vote to them are in seats where the Tories are the anti-Reform party..
    Yes, you're right, I've mixed it up in my head with the Refugee Convention. But I think the general theme of my post is right.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,499
    If Williamglenn's realignment theory was right the Greens wouldn't exist.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,631
    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    The Aaron Rai story is amazing.

    I’d never heard of him before

    Even if he doesn’t get SPOTY I hope he gets some recognition.

    Massive achievement. He won in great style too.
    I’m not a Golf follower but as he’s a fellow West Midlander that really pleased me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    eek said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    What's the ECHR got to do with small boats - it's conflagating
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    Except in seats the Tories held in 2024, in Tory v Reform seats 45% of LDs, a third of Labour and a quarter of Green voters would vote Tory to beat Reform according to Yougov
    So the Tories will be fighting to retain 120 seats at most on that basis - they aren't going to improve if the only people willing to transfer their vote to them are in seats where the Tories are the anti-Reform party..
    Most Tories would be delighted with 120 seats still and a few gains from Labour in London and the Home Counties on current polls. If Labour remain largest party that might even keep the Tories ahead of Reform on seats and still the main opposition
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "I lived in an upscale apartment complex in Lagos, and several of the residents had council flats in the UK which they were subletting. They admitted that they couldn’t believe they were able to get away with it, and asked if Brits were retarded."

    https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20

    Meanwhile

    "The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."

    https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20

    This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK

    I was told five years ago: about this

    Nothing will happen to stop it or change it.

    The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.

    When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees

    😃😃😃😃
    It will stop when we get a Reform government. No other party has the desire or the bollocks. That is why you, we, all of us, must vote Reform

    The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
    Meanwhile man with no right to work here wins an employment tribunal !!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/18/migrant-wins-employment-tribunal/
    Clearly you didn't read the article as the second paragraph reads

    Erin Ong is in line for compensation after winning the tribunal in Britain, even though she did not have a work permit and was only on a visitor’s visa when she was managing a hotel in the UK.

    To be honest, I actually think this is valid, the employer failed to check immigration status and abused the worker by making her do things she shouldn't have been doing due to her aliments.
    Yes, I have seen worse cases of Wokeness gone mad, like, er, this, from yesterday


    "A trans Indian student elected to Holyrood wants Scottish taxpayers to fund reparations to Palestinians because of their “complicity” in the “occupation” of the territory.

    Q Manivannan was elected as a Green Party MSP on the Edinburgh & Lothians East list for the pro-independence Scottish Greens last week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/17/trans-indian-msp-wants-scots-to-pay-palestine-reparations/?recomm_id=e6eb9e25-2809-48b1-9e0d-4fb0ec9cdfc8
    Quite a few in labour do.

    There’s an all party political group dedicated to it.

    There was a conference on it last year and the legal people behind some of the so-called equal pay shakedowns, Leigh Day, were a sponsor of it as are a few NGO’s who will benefit from it.

    Dig deep Sir, it’s not going away and the Greens are sympathetic too.

    https://www.appg-ar.org/uk-reparations-conference-2025-register
    There is a reckoning coming, for these people. They are parasites
    Unfortunately too many white liberals have suicidal empathy and will continue to vote for higher taxes and less freedom so they can feel as though they're on the right side of history.
    If only women aged 18-50 could vote, the Greens would win 500+ seats. Maybe the right should reflect on that and consider making them a palatable offer, instead of the "the voters are wrong" thing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579
    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    I actually think a lot of the ECHR problems could be solved by openly legislating conflicts with them and very publicly daring the "unelected foreign judges" to overrule the "elected sovereign British government" and face consequences such as suspension of all funding, suspension of UK membership and repealing all legislation relating to the ECHR in the country. Putting them in their place a bit would work wonders and I don't think they'd be able to defy the UK (and many other countries).

    Right now the unelected judges make crazy rulings and get away with it because they don't believe any country will defy them. As soon as one country does it they'll start to fall in line. Failing that start making consequences for them and suspend our membership while we enact proper border controls and deportation of foreign criminals and illegal immigrants.

    I don't see any other way out because the judges need to be brought to heel by the nation states.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Heard Burnham on TV while getting my haircut.

    Rather a negative speech I thought.

    And a fair bit of Southerner bashing which may play well in Manchester but seems a bit of a hostage to fortune if he has to win a nationwide election.

    Burnham's younger than Starmer, but by less than you might think; 56 rather than 63.

    His mental map of the country's politics is just as out-of-date, though. The typical Labour voter isn't an older northerner any more, they've got a degree, live in somewhere like Stevenage, do something in front of a computer screen as a job and would really like to buy a house and have children someday.

    Electorally, that ought to be brilliant because there are loads of people like that. But Labour are really struggling to come to terms with the realisation that their heritage voters are .. heritage.
    The average Labour voter has got a degree and lives in a slightly bleak, cramped new build near Hitchin and they get up at 6am to commute for 90 minutes into central London so that their taxes can pay for the millionaire First Lady of Sierra Leone to have a chic and cheap council flat in Southwark which is now occupied by her nepo children

    And yet, despite all this, they keep voting Labour. They deserve what they get
    Sadly Kinabalu was unimpressed with you and William posting tweets related to it !!
    I just didn't like seeing them get in each other's way like that. Waste of far-right propagandist talent.
    So the potential abuse of social housing is ‘Far Right’ 🤔

    Hardly a problem for you with all those mansions close by.
    Not this again. Modest little place I have, honestly. Just a routine Edwardian semi. Bet your gaff is grander.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,604
    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Heard Burnham on TV while getting my haircut.

    Rather a negative speech I thought.

    And a fair bit of Southerner bashing which may play well in Manchester but seems a bit of a hostage to fortune if he has to win a nationwide election.

    Burnham's younger than Starmer, but by less than you might think; 56 rather than 63.

    His mental map of the country's politics is just as out-of-date, though. The typical Labour voter isn't an older northerner any more, they've got a degree, live in somewhere like Stevenage, do something in front of a computer screen as a job and would really like to buy a house and have children someday.

    Electorally, that ought to be brilliant because there are loads of people like that. But Labour are really struggling to come to terms with the realisation that their heritage voters are .. heritage.
    The average Labour voter has got a degree and lives in a slightly bleak, cramped new build near Hitchin and they get up at 6am to commute for 90 minutes into central London so that their taxes can pay for the millionaire First Lady of Sierra Leone to have a chic and cheap council flat in Southwark which is now occupied by her nepo children

    And yet, despite all this, they keep voting Labour. They deserve what they get
    Sadly Kinabalu was unimpressed with you and William posting tweets related to it !!
    I just didn't like seeing them get in each other's way like that. Waste of far-right propagandist talent.
    So the potential abuse of social housing is ‘Far Right’ 🤔

    Hardly a problem for you with all those mansions close by.
    I’m a bit confused about this. Social Housing is arms-length. They raise capital to build or buy with councils only having a part option on the supply. The rest is allocated according to the policies of the Social Landlord. Sounds very much like people jumping to conclusions that suit their POV.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    edited May 18
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    I actually think a lot of the ECHR problems could be solved by openly legislating conflicts with them and very publicly daring the "unelected foreign judges" to overrule the "elected sovereign British government" and face consequences such as suspension of all funding, suspension of UK membership and repealing all legislation relating to the ECHR in the country. Putting them in their place a bit would work wonders and I don't think they'd be able to defy the UK (and many other countries).

    Right now the unelected judges make crazy rulings and get away with it because they don't believe any country will defy them. As soon as one country does it they'll start to fall in line. Failing that start making consequences for them and suspend our membership while we enact proper border controls and deportation of foreign criminals and illegal immigrants.

    I don't see any other way out because the judges need to be brought to heel by the nation states.
    If you don't like the rulings, either change the laws or bin them altogether. I don't know why you'd fanny about with all the judge-defying stuff.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579
    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "I lived in an upscale apartment complex in Lagos, and several of the residents had council flats in the UK which they were subletting. They admitted that they couldn’t believe they were able to get away with it, and asked if Brits were retarded."

    https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20

    Meanwhile

    "The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."

    https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20

    This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK

    I was told five years ago: about this

    Nothing will happen to stop it or change it.

    The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.

    When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees

    😃😃😃😃
    It will stop when we get a Reform government. No other party has the desire or the bollocks. That is why you, we, all of us, must vote Reform

    The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
    Meanwhile man with no right to work here wins an employment tribunal !!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/18/migrant-wins-employment-tribunal/
    Clearly you didn't read the article as the second paragraph reads

    Erin Ong is in line for compensation after winning the tribunal in Britain, even though she did not have a work permit and was only on a visitor’s visa when she was managing a hotel in the UK.

    To be honest, I actually think this is valid, the employer failed to check immigration status and abused the worker by making her do things she shouldn't have been doing due to her aliments.
    Yes, I have seen worse cases of Wokeness gone mad, like, er, this, from yesterday


    "A trans Indian student elected to Holyrood wants Scottish taxpayers to fund reparations to Palestinians because of their “complicity” in the “occupation” of the territory.

    Q Manivannan was elected as a Green Party MSP on the Edinburgh & Lothians East list for the pro-independence Scottish Greens last week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/17/trans-indian-msp-wants-scots-to-pay-palestine-reparations/?recomm_id=e6eb9e25-2809-48b1-9e0d-4fb0ec9cdfc8
    Quite a few in labour do.

    There’s an all party political group dedicated to it.

    There was a conference on it last year and the legal people behind some of the so-called equal pay shakedowns, Leigh Day, were a sponsor of it as are a few NGO’s who will benefit from it.

    Dig deep Sir, it’s not going away and the Greens are sympathetic too.

    https://www.appg-ar.org/uk-reparations-conference-2025-register
    There is a reckoning coming, for these people. They are parasites
    Unfortunately too many white liberals have suicidal empathy and will continue to vote for higher taxes and less freedom so they can feel as though they're on the right side of history.
    If only women aged 18-50 could vote, the Greens would win 500+ seats. Maybe the right should reflect on that and consider making them a palatable offer, instead of the "the voters are wrong" thing.
    So it's panic stations that if only men in that age range could vote that we'd end up with some mish mash of Labour, Tory and Reform and that's toxic masculinity but women going far left and voting for mentalist stuff is fine?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    The Aaron Rai story is amazing.

    I’d never heard of him before

    Even if he doesn’t get SPOTY I hope he gets some recognition.

    Massive achievement. He won in great style too.
    I’m not a Golf follower but as he’s a fellow West Midlander that really pleased me.
    Wolverhampton. And a nice backstory involving sacrifice and dedication.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,932

    US extends the sanctions waiver on purchases of Russian oil again. Russia is doing very well out of the Iran War.

    It would be - if it could export.

    Unfortunately for Putin, his export terminals go boom on a regular basis. Even with higher prices, the revenues are down 37% on last year.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    edited May 18
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "I lived in an upscale apartment complex in Lagos, and several of the residents had council flats in the UK which they were subletting. They admitted that they couldn’t believe they were able to get away with it, and asked if Brits were retarded."

    https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20

    Meanwhile

    "The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."

    https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20

    This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK

    I was told five years ago: about this

    Nothing will happen to stop it or change it.

    The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.

    When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees

    😃😃😃😃
    It will stop when we get a Reform government. No other party has the desire or the bollocks. That is why you, we, all of us, must vote Reform

    The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
    Meanwhile man with no right to work here wins an employment tribunal !!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/18/migrant-wins-employment-tribunal/
    Clearly you didn't read the article as the second paragraph reads

    Erin Ong is in line for compensation after winning the tribunal in Britain, even though she did not have a work permit and was only on a visitor’s visa when she was managing a hotel in the UK.

    To be honest, I actually think this is valid, the employer failed to check immigration status and abused the worker by making her do things she shouldn't have been doing due to her aliments.
    Yes, I have seen worse cases of Wokeness gone mad, like, er, this, from yesterday


    "A trans Indian student elected to Holyrood wants Scottish taxpayers to fund reparations to Palestinians because of their “complicity” in the “occupation” of the territory.

    Q Manivannan was elected as a Green Party MSP on the Edinburgh & Lothians East list for the pro-independence Scottish Greens last week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/17/trans-indian-msp-wants-scots-to-pay-palestine-reparations/?recomm_id=e6eb9e25-2809-48b1-9e0d-4fb0ec9cdfc8
    Quite a few in labour do.

    There’s an all party political group dedicated to it.

    There was a conference on it last year and the legal people behind some of the so-called equal pay shakedowns, Leigh Day, were a sponsor of it as are a few NGO’s who will benefit from it.

    Dig deep Sir, it’s not going away and the Greens are sympathetic too.

    https://www.appg-ar.org/uk-reparations-conference-2025-register
    There is a reckoning coming, for these people. They are parasites
    Unfortunately too many white liberals have suicidal empathy and will continue to vote for higher taxes and less freedom so they can feel as though they're on the right side of history.
    If only women aged 18-50 could vote, the Greens would win 500+ seats. Maybe the right should reflect on that and consider making them a palatable offer, instead of the "the voters are wrong" thing.
    So it's panic stations that if only men in that age range could vote that we'd end up with some mish mash of Labour, Tory and Reform and that's toxic masculinity but women going far left and voting for mentalist stuff is fine?
    Who said that? I don't understand your point.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579
    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    I actually think a lot of the ECHR problems could be solved by openly legislating conflicts with them and very publicly daring the "unelected foreign judges" to overrule the "elected sovereign British government" and face consequences such as suspension of all funding, suspension of UK membership and repealing all legislation relating to the ECHR in the country. Putting them in their place a bit would work wonders and I don't think they'd be able to defy the UK (and many other countries).

    Right now the unelected judges make crazy rulings and get away with it because they don't believe any country will defy them. As soon as one country does it they'll start to fall in line. Failing that start making consequences for them and suspend our membership while we enact proper border controls and deportation of foreign criminals and illegal immigrants.

    I don't see any other way out because the judges need to be brought to heel by the nation states.
    If you don't like the rulings, either change the laws or bin them altogether. I don't know why you'd fanny about with all the judge-defying stuff.
    How do you do that without leaving the ECHR? That's why you need strong politicians across Europe to start facing down the unelected judges and start forcing consequences on them when they make these ridiculous rulings.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579
    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "I lived in an upscale apartment complex in Lagos, and several of the residents had council flats in the UK which they were subletting. They admitted that they couldn’t believe they were able to get away with it, and asked if Brits were retarded."

    https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20

    Meanwhile

    "The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."

    https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20

    This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK

    I was told five years ago: about this

    Nothing will happen to stop it or change it.

    The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.

    When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees

    😃😃😃😃
    It will stop when we get a Reform government. No other party has the desire or the bollocks. That is why you, we, all of us, must vote Reform

    The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
    Meanwhile man with no right to work here wins an employment tribunal !!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/18/migrant-wins-employment-tribunal/
    Clearly you didn't read the article as the second paragraph reads

    Erin Ong is in line for compensation after winning the tribunal in Britain, even though she did not have a work permit and was only on a visitor’s visa when she was managing a hotel in the UK.

    To be honest, I actually think this is valid, the employer failed to check immigration status and abused the worker by making her do things she shouldn't have been doing due to her aliments.
    Yes, I have seen worse cases of Wokeness gone mad, like, er, this, from yesterday


    "A trans Indian student elected to Holyrood wants Scottish taxpayers to fund reparations to Palestinians because of their “complicity” in the “occupation” of the territory.

    Q Manivannan was elected as a Green Party MSP on the Edinburgh & Lothians East list for the pro-independence Scottish Greens last week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/17/trans-indian-msp-wants-scots-to-pay-palestine-reparations/?recomm_id=e6eb9e25-2809-48b1-9e0d-4fb0ec9cdfc8
    Quite a few in labour do.

    There’s an all party political group dedicated to it.

    There was a conference on it last year and the legal people behind some of the so-called equal pay shakedowns, Leigh Day, were a sponsor of it as are a few NGO’s who will benefit from it.

    Dig deep Sir, it’s not going away and the Greens are sympathetic too.

    https://www.appg-ar.org/uk-reparations-conference-2025-register
    There is a reckoning coming, for these people. They are parasites
    Unfortunately too many white liberals have suicidal empathy and will continue to vote for higher taxes and less freedom so they can feel as though they're on the right side of history.
    If only women aged 18-50 could vote, the Greens would win 500+ seats. Maybe the right should reflect on that and consider making them a palatable offer, instead of the "the voters are wrong" thing.
    So it's panic stations that if only men in that age range could vote that we'd end up with some mish mash of Labour, Tory and Reform and that's toxic masculinity but women going far left and voting for mentalist stuff is fine?
    Who said that? I don't understand your point.
    Society at large which has been in a moral panic about "toxic masculinity"?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    I actually think a lot of the ECHR problems could be solved by openly legislating conflicts with them and very publicly daring the "unelected foreign judges" to overrule the "elected sovereign British government" and face consequences such as suspension of all funding, suspension of UK membership and repealing all legislation relating to the ECHR in the country. Putting them in their place a bit would work wonders and I don't think they'd be able to defy the UK (and many other countries).

    Right now the unelected judges make crazy rulings and get away with it because they don't believe any country will defy them. As soon as one country does it they'll start to fall in line. Failing that start making consequences for them and suspend our membership while we enact proper border controls and deportation of foreign criminals and illegal immigrants.

    I don't see any other way out because the judges need to be brought to heel by the nation states.
    If you don't like the rulings, either change the laws or bin them altogether. I don't know why you'd fanny about with all the judge-defying stuff.
    How do you do that without leaving the ECHR? That's why you need strong politicians across Europe to start facing down the unelected judges and start forcing consequences on them when they make these ridiculous rulings.
    Yes, just leave. Attacking individual judges is mental.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,631
    edited May 18
    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "I lived in an upscale apartment complex in Lagos, and several of the residents had council flats in the UK which they were subletting. They admitted that they couldn’t believe they were able to get away with it, and asked if Brits were retarded."

    https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20

    Meanwhile

    "The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."

    https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20

    This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK

    I was told five years ago: about this

    Nothing will happen to stop it or change it.

    The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.

    When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees

    😃😃😃😃
    It will stop when we get a Reform government. No other party has the desire or the bollocks. That is why you, we, all of us, must vote Reform

    The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
    Meanwhile man with no right to work here wins an employment tribunal !!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/18/migrant-wins-employment-tribunal/
    Clearly you didn't read the article as the second paragraph reads

    Erin Ong is in line for compensation after winning the tribunal in Britain, even though she did not have a work permit and was only on a visitor’s visa when she was managing a hotel in the UK.

    To be honest, I actually think this is valid, the employer failed to check immigration status and abused the worker by making her do things she shouldn't have been doing due to her aliments.
    Yes, I have seen worse cases of Wokeness gone mad, like, er, this, from yesterday


    "A trans Indian student elected to Holyrood wants Scottish taxpayers to fund reparations to Palestinians because of their “complicity” in the “occupation” of the territory.

    Q Manivannan was elected as a Green Party MSP on the Edinburgh & Lothians East list for the pro-independence Scottish Greens last week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/17/trans-indian-msp-wants-scots-to-pay-palestine-reparations/?recomm_id=e6eb9e25-2809-48b1-9e0d-4fb0ec9cdfc8
    Quite a few in labour do.

    There’s an all party political group dedicated to it.

    There was a conference on it last year and the legal people behind some of the so-called equal pay shakedowns, Leigh Day, were a sponsor of it as are a few NGO’s who will benefit from it.

    Dig deep Sir, it’s not going away and the Greens are sympathetic too.

    https://www.appg-ar.org/uk-reparations-conference-2025-register
    There is a reckoning coming, for these people. They are parasites
    Unfortunately too many white liberals have suicidal empathy and will continue to vote for higher taxes and less freedom so they can feel as though they're on the right side of history.
    If only women aged 18-50 could vote, the Greens would win 500+ seats. Maybe the right should reflect on that and consider making them a palatable offer, instead of the "the voters are wrong" thing.
    Perhaps we should reflect on how they have been so radicalised by the Far Left.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,817
    Taz said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "I lived in an upscale apartment complex in Lagos, and several of the residents had council flats in the UK which they were subletting. They admitted that they couldn’t believe they were able to get away with it, and asked if Brits were retarded."

    https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20

    Meanwhile

    "The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."

    https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20

    This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK

    I was told five years ago: about this

    Nothing will happen to stop it or change it.

    The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.

    When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees

    😃😃😃😃
    It will stop when we get a Reform government. No other party has the desire or the bollocks. That is why you, we, all of us, must vote Reform

    The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
    Meanwhile man with no right to work here wins an employment tribunal !!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/18/migrant-wins-employment-tribunal/
    Clearly you didn't read the article as the second paragraph reads

    Erin Ong is in line for compensation after winning the tribunal in Britain, even though she did not have a work permit and was only on a visitor’s visa when she was managing a hotel in the UK.

    To be honest, I actually think this is valid, the employer failed to check immigration status and abused the worker by making her do things she shouldn't have been doing due to her aliments.
    Yes, I have seen worse cases of Wokeness gone mad, like, er, this, from yesterday


    "A trans Indian student elected to Holyrood wants Scottish taxpayers to fund reparations to Palestinians because of their “complicity” in the “occupation” of the territory.

    Q Manivannan was elected as a Green Party MSP on the Edinburgh & Lothians East list for the pro-independence Scottish Greens last week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/17/trans-indian-msp-wants-scots-to-pay-palestine-reparations/?recomm_id=e6eb9e25-2809-48b1-9e0d-4fb0ec9cdfc8
    Quite a few in labour do.

    There’s an all party political group dedicated to it.

    There was a conference on it last year and the legal people behind some of the so-called equal pay shakedowns, Leigh Day, were a sponsor of it as are a few NGO’s who will benefit from it.

    Dig deep Sir, it’s not going away and the Greens are sympathetic too.

    https://www.appg-ar.org/uk-reparations-conference-2025-register
    There is a reckoning coming, for these people. They are parasites
    Unfortunately too many white liberals have suicidal empathy and will continue to vote for higher taxes and less freedom so they can feel as though they're on the right side of history.
    If only women aged 18-50 could vote, the Greens would win 500+ seats. Maybe the right should reflect on that and consider making them a palatable offer, instead of the "the voters are wrong" thing.
    Perhaps we should reflect on how they have been so radicalised by the Far Left.
    Surely it's the promise of bigger breasts without surgery that's the appeal?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016

    US extends the sanctions waiver on purchases of Russian oil again. Russia is doing very well out of the Iran War.

    It would be - if it could export.

    Unfortunately for Putin, his export terminals go boom on a regular basis. Even with higher prices, the revenues are down 37% on last year.
    Sure, but imagine the situation if revenues weren't boosted by the Iran War?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    I actually think a lot of the ECHR problems could be solved by openly legislating conflicts with them and very publicly daring the "unelected foreign judges" to overrule the "elected sovereign British government" and face consequences such as suspension of all funding, suspension of UK membership and repealing all legislation relating to the ECHR in the country. Putting them in their place a bit would work wonders and I don't think they'd be able to defy the UK (and many other countries).

    Right now the unelected judges make crazy rulings and get away with it because they don't believe any country will defy them. As soon as one country does it they'll start to fall in line. Failing that start making consequences for them and suspend our membership while we enact proper border controls and deportation of foreign criminals and illegal immigrants.

    I don't see any other way out because the judges need to be brought to heel by the nation states.
    If you don't like the rulings, either change the laws or bin them altogether. I don't know why you'd fanny about with all the judge-defying stuff.
    How do you do that without leaving the ECHR? That's why you need strong politicians across Europe to start facing down the unelected judges and start forcing consequences on them when they make these ridiculous rulings.
    What do you think of the recent declaration in which the Council of Europe (as far as I understand it) told judges they were doing it all wrong?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314

    If Williamglenn's realignment theory was right the Greens wouldn't exist.

    They're a symptom of the collapse of Labour and the disintegration of its coalition of voters and they have a low ceiling.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "I lived in an upscale apartment complex in Lagos, and several of the residents had council flats in the UK which they were subletting. They admitted that they couldn’t believe they were able to get away with it, and asked if Brits were retarded."

    https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20

    Meanwhile

    "The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."

    https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20

    This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK

    I was told five years ago: about this

    Nothing will happen to stop it or change it.

    The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.

    When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees

    😃😃😃😃
    It will stop when we get a Reform government. No other party has the desire or the bollocks. That is why you, we, all of us, must vote Reform

    The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
    Meanwhile man with no right to work here wins an employment tribunal !!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/18/migrant-wins-employment-tribunal/
    Clearly you didn't read the article as the second paragraph reads

    Erin Ong is in line for compensation after winning the tribunal in Britain, even though she did not have a work permit and was only on a visitor’s visa when she was managing a hotel in the UK.

    To be honest, I actually think this is valid, the employer failed to check immigration status and abused the worker by making her do things she shouldn't have been doing due to her aliments.
    Yes, I have seen worse cases of Wokeness gone mad, like, er, this, from yesterday


    "A trans Indian student elected to Holyrood wants Scottish taxpayers to fund reparations to Palestinians because of their “complicity” in the “occupation” of the territory.

    Q Manivannan was elected as a Green Party MSP on the Edinburgh & Lothians East list for the pro-independence Scottish Greens last week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/17/trans-indian-msp-wants-scots-to-pay-palestine-reparations/?recomm_id=e6eb9e25-2809-48b1-9e0d-4fb0ec9cdfc8
    Quite a few in labour do.

    There’s an all party political group dedicated to it.

    There was a conference on it last year and the legal people behind some of the so-called equal pay shakedowns, Leigh Day, were a sponsor of it as are a few NGO’s who will benefit from it.

    Dig deep Sir, it’s not going away and the Greens are sympathetic too.

    https://www.appg-ar.org/uk-reparations-conference-2025-register
    There is a reckoning coming, for these people. They are parasites
    Unfortunately too many white liberals have suicidal empathy and will continue to vote for higher taxes and less freedom so they can feel as though they're on the right side of history.
    If only women aged 18-50 could vote, the Greens would win 500+ seats. Maybe the right should reflect on that and consider making them a palatable offer, instead of the "the voters are wrong" thing.
    So it's panic stations that if only men in that age range could vote that we'd end up with some mish mash of Labour, Tory and Reform and that's toxic masculinity but women going far left and voting for mentalist stuff is fine?
    Who said that? I don't understand your point.
    Society at large which has been in a moral panic about "toxic masculinity"?
    So you think the overwhelming shift to the left among women is some sort of mass hysteria about masculinity. And your plan is to just tell them they are wrong?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,229
    Eabhal said:

    Tom Forth is doing some interesting digging into the Manchester Myth, if anyone is interested.

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2056047335327617318?s=20

    Is my reading correct that much maligned Glasgow is pretty much on a par with Andyland?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    I actually think a lot of the ECHR problems could be solved by openly legislating conflicts with them and very publicly daring the "unelected foreign judges" to overrule the "elected sovereign British government" and face consequences such as suspension of all funding, suspension of UK membership and repealing all legislation relating to the ECHR in the country. Putting them in their place a bit would work wonders and I don't think they'd be able to defy the UK (and many other countries).

    Right now the unelected judges make crazy rulings and get away with it because they don't believe any country will defy them. As soon as one country does it they'll start to fall in line. Failing that start making consequences for them and suspend our membership while we enact proper border controls and deportation of foreign criminals and illegal immigrants.

    I don't see any other way out because the judges need to be brought to heel by the nation states.
    If you don't like the rulings, either change the laws or bin them altogether. I don't know why you'd fanny about with all the judge-defying stuff.
    How do you do that without leaving the ECHR? That's why you need strong politicians across Europe to start facing down the unelected judges and start forcing consequences on them when they make these ridiculous rulings.
    What do you think of the recent declaration in which the Council of Europe (as far as I understand it) told judges they were doing it all wrong?
    Pointless as it doesn't actually amend the law, it's just a declaration which they will ignore. Nation states need to band together and start legislating in national parliaments and dare those unelected judges to overrule the elected representatives.

    There will be a proportion of people who have suicidal empathy that will kick and scream as the foreign criminals and illegal immigrants are deported but I think overall it will be extremely popular.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,114
    Have we done that Farage's house purchase couldn't possibly have been funded (in full or in part) from his I'm a Celebrity fees, as per FT investigation?

    So far I think that's two stories in relation to the £5m proven false: firstly that it was for security and now that the hole purchase was from I'm a Celeb cash. Wonder what's next?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 67,171

    Pro-EU Labour figures very disappointed by this as they had thought Burnham was running to prove a Rejoin candidate could win in Makerfield and Brexit could be reversed. “Shambles,” says one

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056376674040623451

    Even if he did, and did, that wouldn't prove that.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623

    Eabhal said:

    Tom Forth is doing some interesting digging into the Manchester Myth, if anyone is interested.

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2056047335327617318?s=20

    Is my reading correct that much maligned Glasgow is pretty much on a par with Andyland?
    Correct. And under an SNP minority propped up by the Greens.

    (Decent progress on cycle lanes, putting us to shame in Edinburgh)
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,571
    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    The Aaron Rai story is amazing.

    I’d never heard of him before

    Even if he doesn’t get SPOTY I hope he gets some recognition.

    Massive achievement. He won in great style too.
    I’m not a Golf follower but as he’s a fellow West Midlander that really pleased me.
    He's not quite Steve Bull or Denise Lewis but he's a bona fide Dingle born and bred.

    I guess Rob Rock, Peter Baker and Paul Broadhurst were the last West Midlanders to reach decent heights in the game. Baker is a full on dingle
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    Ratters said:

    Have we done that Farage's house purchase couldn't possibly have been funded (in full or in part) from his I'm a Celebrity fees, as per FT investigation?

    So far I think that's two stories in relation to the £5m proven false: firstly that it was for security and now that the hole purchase was from I'm a Celeb cash. Wonder what's next?

    Notwithstanding all the 'priced in' smuggery of his supporters I have high hopes of this doing him some real damage.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,499

    If Williamglenn's realignment theory was right the Greens wouldn't exist.

    They're a symptom of the collapse of Labour and the disintegration of its coalition of voters and they have a low ceiling.
    They are millions of voters who wouldn't vote for a Tory party whose message currently seems to be "we'll do what Reform say, but in a more competent way whilst balancing the books."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579
    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "I lived in an upscale apartment complex in Lagos, and several of the residents had council flats in the UK which they were subletting. They admitted that they couldn’t believe they were able to get away with it, and asked if Brits were retarded."

    https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20

    Meanwhile

    "The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."

    https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20

    This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK

    I was told five years ago: about this

    Nothing will happen to stop it or change it.

    The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.

    When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees

    😃😃😃😃
    It will stop when we get a Reform government. No other party has the desire or the bollocks. That is why you, we, all of us, must vote Reform

    The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
    Meanwhile man with no right to work here wins an employment tribunal !!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/18/migrant-wins-employment-tribunal/
    Clearly you didn't read the article as the second paragraph reads

    Erin Ong is in line for compensation after winning the tribunal in Britain, even though she did not have a work permit and was only on a visitor’s visa when she was managing a hotel in the UK.

    To be honest, I actually think this is valid, the employer failed to check immigration status and abused the worker by making her do things she shouldn't have been doing due to her aliments.
    Yes, I have seen worse cases of Wokeness gone mad, like, er, this, from yesterday


    "A trans Indian student elected to Holyrood wants Scottish taxpayers to fund reparations to Palestinians because of their “complicity” in the “occupation” of the territory.

    Q Manivannan was elected as a Green Party MSP on the Edinburgh & Lothians East list for the pro-independence Scottish Greens last week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/17/trans-indian-msp-wants-scots-to-pay-palestine-reparations/?recomm_id=e6eb9e25-2809-48b1-9e0d-4fb0ec9cdfc8
    Quite a few in labour do.

    There’s an all party political group dedicated to it.

    There was a conference on it last year and the legal people behind some of the so-called equal pay shakedowns, Leigh Day, were a sponsor of it as are a few NGO’s who will benefit from it.

    Dig deep Sir, it’s not going away and the Greens are sympathetic too.

    https://www.appg-ar.org/uk-reparations-conference-2025-register
    There is a reckoning coming, for these people. They are parasites
    Unfortunately too many white liberals have suicidal empathy and will continue to vote for higher taxes and less freedom so they can feel as though they're on the right side of history.
    If only women aged 18-50 could vote, the Greens would win 500+ seats. Maybe the right should reflect on that and consider making them a palatable offer, instead of the "the voters are wrong" thing.
    So it's panic stations that if only men in that age range could vote that we'd end up with some mish mash of Labour, Tory and Reform and that's toxic masculinity but women going far left and voting for mentalist stuff is fine?
    Who said that? I don't understand your point.
    Society at large which has been in a moral panic about "toxic masculinity"?
    So you think the overwhelming shift to the left among women is some sort of mass hysteria about masculinity. And your plan is to just tell them they are wrong?
    I didn't say it was? Just making the point that there's been at least a few years of moral panic about men shifting to the right (and it's actually just shifting slightly right of centre) but not even a peep about women shifting to the far left (and it really is far left as you pointed out).

    Where's the panic stations from the media, from politicians and where's the TV shows about women going to the extreme left? Right now all I see is a constant drum beat from those groups about now young men are a problem that needs to be solved with leftist brainwashing.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,229
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Tom Forth is doing some interesting digging into the Manchester Myth, if anyone is interested.

    https://x.com/thomasforth/status/2056047335327617318?s=20

    Is my reading correct that much maligned Glasgow is pretty much on a par with Andyland?
    Correct. And under an SNP minority propped up by the Greens.

    (Decent progress on cycle lanes, putting us to shame in Edinburgh)
    Perhaps Susan Aitken, the retiring head of Glasgow City Council, needs to be the new Labour leader and pm!
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,571
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    You would need Your Party to do better so that the left-wing vote was split further to achieve that.
    Are they still going ?

    Mind you if Burnham becomes leader he’s rumoured to want to let Jezza back in so that would leave it being run by Zarah,
    IfvhevhascJezzavback he'll lose half the membership and half the votes.

    If you want "team players" like he claims you root out filth like Corbyn, Abbott, Long Bailey, Burgon.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    I actually think a lot of the ECHR problems could be solved by openly legislating conflicts with them and very publicly daring the "unelected foreign judges" to overrule the "elected sovereign British government" and face consequences such as suspension of all funding, suspension of UK membership and repealing all legislation relating to the ECHR in the country. Putting them in their place a bit would work wonders and I don't think they'd be able to defy the UK (and many other countries).

    Right now the unelected judges make crazy rulings and get away with it because they don't believe any country will defy them. As soon as one country does it they'll start to fall in line. Failing that start making consequences for them and suspend our membership while we enact proper border controls and deportation of foreign criminals and illegal immigrants.

    I don't see any other way out because the judges need to be brought to heel by the nation states.
    If you don't like the rulings, either change the laws or bin them altogether. I don't know why you'd fanny about with all the judge-defying stuff.
    How do you do that without leaving the ECHR? That's why you need strong politicians across Europe to start facing down the unelected judges and start forcing consequences on them when they make these ridiculous rulings.
    What do you think of the recent declaration in which the Council of Europe (as far as I understand it) told judges they were doing it all wrong?
    Pointless as it doesn't actually amend the law, it's just a declaration which they will ignore. Nation states need to band together and start legislating in national parliaments and dare those unelected judges to overrule the elected representatives.

    There will be a proportion of people who have suicidal empathy that will kick and scream as the foreign criminals and illegal immigrants are deported but I think overall it will be extremely popular.
    You've really embraced that 'suicidal empathy' term, haven't you.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,687
    kinabalu said:

    Ratters said:

    Have we done that Farage's house purchase couldn't possibly have been funded (in full or in part) from his I'm a Celebrity fees, as per FT investigation?

    So far I think that's two stories in relation to the £5m proven false: firstly that it was for security and now that the hole purchase was from I'm a Celeb cash. Wonder what's next?

    Notwithstanding all the 'priced in' smuggery of his supporters I have high hopes of this doing him some real damage.
    Given it happened before he was an MP he can be done for not declaring it - but can he be told to repay it? I would guess not...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923
    MaxPB said:

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056403137380917508

    ***EXCLUSIVE*** Andy Burnham fully rules out changing Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules if he becomes PM

    At the weekend his team had left it open whether he might change them in future

    But tonight his spokesperson tells Bloomberg he is explicitly ruling out any changes to the existing fiscal rules

    AND crucially Burnham is now also ruling out exempting defence spending from the fiscal rules to spend more on the military

    No change with the EU relationship and no change to the economy, exactly what is Burnham going to do differently?!
    His one policy of significance is regional devolution of power.
    The extent of that is unclear, but it goes against forty years of centralisation which was economically disastrous for the regions, so I'll give him credit there for a policy of some significance.

    No doubt PB's London residents will be sceptical, but that's their problem.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    In your dreams, william.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 2,114
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    I actually think a lot of the ECHR problems could be solved by openly legislating conflicts with them and very publicly daring the "unelected foreign judges" to overrule the "elected sovereign British government" and face consequences such as suspension of all funding, suspension of UK membership and repealing all legislation relating to the ECHR in the country. Putting them in their place a bit would work wonders and I don't think they'd be able to defy the UK (and many other countries).

    Right now the unelected judges make crazy rulings and get away with it because they don't believe any country will defy them. As soon as one country does it they'll start to fall in line. Failing that start making consequences for them and suspend our membership while we enact proper border controls and deportation of foreign criminals and illegal immigrants.

    I don't see any other way out because the judges need to be brought to heel by the nation states.
    If you don't like the rulings, either change the laws or bin them altogether. I don't know why you'd fanny about with all the judge-defying stuff.
    How do you do that without leaving the ECHR? That's why you need strong politicians across Europe to start facing down the unelected judges and start forcing consequences on them when they make these ridiculous rulings.
    What do you think of the recent declaration in which the Council of Europe (as far as I understand it) told judges they were doing it all wrong?
    There will be a proportion of people who have suicidal empathy that will kick and scream as the foreign criminals and illegal immigrants are deported but I think overall it will be extremely popular.
    What is this "suicidal empathy" you keep talking about?

    Keep whacking that scapegoat if it makes you feel better. But you've become no better than others who blame all our ills on the 'enemy', seemingly consisting of judges and the wrong type of foreigner. Trumpian America being the most recent example.

    The rest of us can get on with supporting our ability to manage our borders sensibly without the unnecessarily divisive rhetoric.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,571
    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I think the Tories will be 4th biggest Party after Reform,, Lab, LD, in England at next GE. Maybe 5th after Greens.

    Tories 5th or 6th in Wales and 3rd at best in Scotland.

    Max 40 seats.

    I envisage massive tactical voting on centre left for around 330 ish

    Reform ball park 250 to 260. Mot enough with Tories to have power

    Nats would support Progressive Alliance if needed
    The Tories could survive as third party, if they are 4th on seats or worse Farage will take them over within a decide with the remaining One Nation Tories going LD.
    I think Kemi not out right denouncing Tommy Robinson, will come back to bite her very hard.

    Very clever of Tommy to even suggest people vote Tory it's a shock Twitter queen wasn't on it in 5 minutes.

    15 hours later she still couldn't denounce him preferring to say pro Palestine marches should be banned, outright approval for one of his policies.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056403137380917508

    ***EXCLUSIVE*** Andy Burnham fully rules out changing Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules if he becomes PM

    At the weekend his team had left it open whether he might change them in future

    But tonight his spokesperson tells Bloomberg he is explicitly ruling out any changes to the existing fiscal rules

    AND crucially Burnham is now also ruling out exempting defence spending from the fiscal rules to spend more on the military

    No change with the EU relationship and no change to the economy, exactly what is Burnham going to do differently?!
    His one policy of significance is regional devolution of power.
    The extent of that is unclear, but it goes against forty years of centralisation which was economically disastrous for the regions, so I'll give him credit there for a policy of some significance.

    No doubt PB's London residents will be sceptical, but that's their problem.
    No, I love the place but I do think the country is too London centric.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,631
    Brixian59 said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    You would need Your Party to do better so that the left-wing vote was split further to achieve that.
    Are they still going ?

    Mind you if Burnham becomes leader he’s rumoured to want to let Jezza back in so that would leave it being run by Zarah,
    IfvhevhascJezzavback he'll lose half the membership and half the votes.

    If you want "team players" like he claims you root out filth like Corbyn, Abbott, Long Bailey, Burgon.
    I cannot see any reason why he’d do it. What is the political gain ?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "I lived in an upscale apartment complex in Lagos, and several of the residents had council flats in the UK which they were subletting. They admitted that they couldn’t believe they were able to get away with it, and asked if Brits were retarded."

    https://x.com/whitesundesert/status/2056342001323299240?s=20

    Meanwhile

    "The head of Ethiopia's imperial dynasty is also living in London social housing."

    https://x.com/baylissbaghdad/status/2056345306367697236?s=20

    This is the next scandal waiting to explode. Social housing in London is being gamed by foreigners, everyone in local govt knows this. It is run by foreigners for foreigners, sucking money out of the UK

    I was told five years ago: about this

    Nothing will happen to stop it or change it.

    The people complaining about it will be called racist and the problem deemed we don’t build enough.

    When we do build they’re not always available. Must have been thousands of translators.

    https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/private-flats-taken-off-market-and-set-up-for-afghan-refugees

    😃😃😃😃
    It will stop when we get a Reform government. No other party has the desire or the bollocks. That is why you, we, all of us, must vote Reform

    The alternative is an even bigger explosion of anger, further down the line. And it will be decidedly less democratic
    Meanwhile man with no right to work here wins an employment tribunal !!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/18/migrant-wins-employment-tribunal/
    Clearly you didn't read the article as the second paragraph reads

    Erin Ong is in line for compensation after winning the tribunal in Britain, even though she did not have a work permit and was only on a visitor’s visa when she was managing a hotel in the UK.

    To be honest, I actually think this is valid, the employer failed to check immigration status and abused the worker by making her do things she shouldn't have been doing due to her aliments.
    Yes, I have seen worse cases of Wokeness gone mad, like, er, this, from yesterday


    "A trans Indian student elected to Holyrood wants Scottish taxpayers to fund reparations to Palestinians because of their “complicity” in the “occupation” of the territory.

    Q Manivannan was elected as a Green Party MSP on the Edinburgh & Lothians East list for the pro-independence Scottish Greens last week."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/05/17/trans-indian-msp-wants-scots-to-pay-palestine-reparations/?recomm_id=e6eb9e25-2809-48b1-9e0d-4fb0ec9cdfc8
    Quite a few in labour do.

    There’s an all party political group dedicated to it.

    There was a conference on it last year and the legal people behind some of the so-called equal pay shakedowns, Leigh Day, were a sponsor of it as are a few NGO’s who will benefit from it.

    Dig deep Sir, it’s not going away and the Greens are sympathetic too.

    https://www.appg-ar.org/uk-reparations-conference-2025-register
    There is a reckoning coming, for these people. They are parasites
    Unfortunately too many white liberals have suicidal empathy and will continue to vote for higher taxes and less freedom so they can feel as though they're on the right side of history.
    If only women aged 18-50 could vote, the Greens would win 500+ seats. Maybe the right should reflect on that and consider making them a palatable offer, instead of the "the voters are wrong" thing.
    So it's panic stations that if only men in that age range could vote that we'd end up with some mish mash of Labour, Tory and Reform and that's toxic masculinity but women going far left and voting for mentalist stuff is fine?
    Who said that? I don't understand your point.
    Society at large which has been in a moral panic about "toxic masculinity"?
    So you think the overwhelming shift to the left among women is some sort of mass hysteria about masculinity. And your plan is to just tell them they are wrong?
    I didn't say it was? Just making the point that there's been at least a few years of moral panic about men shifting to the right (and it's actually just shifting slightly right of centre) but not even a peep about women shifting to the far left (and it really is far left as you pointed out).

    Where's the panic stations from the media, from politicians and where's the TV shows about women going to the extreme left? Right now all I see is a constant drum beat from those groups about now young men are a problem that needs to be solved with leftist brainwashing.
    I think it's probably due to the relatively low risk of physical or sexual violence associated with radical young women.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923
    edited May 18
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    I actually think a lot of the ECHR problems could be solved by openly legislating conflicts with them and very publicly daring the "unelected foreign judges" to overrule the "elected sovereign British government" and face consequences such as suspension of all funding, suspension of UK membership and repealing all legislation relating to the ECHR in the country. Putting them in their place a bit would work wonders and I don't think they'd be able to defy the UK (and many other countries).

    Right now the unelected judges make crazy rulings and get away with it because they don't believe any country will defy them. As soon as one country does it they'll start to fall in line. Failing that start making consequences for them and suspend our membership while we enact proper border controls and deportation of foreign criminals and illegal immigrants.

    I don't see any other way out because the judges need to be brought to heel by the nation states.
    If you don't like the rulings, either change the laws or bin them altogether. I don't know why you'd fanny about with all the judge-defying stuff.
    How do you do that without leaving the ECHR? That's why you need strong politicians across Europe to start facing down the unelected judges and start forcing consequences on them when they make these ridiculous rulings.
    European politicians already have started to do so.
    Keep up.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 2,027
    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Oh dear, it looks like Farage will need to come up with another story to explain his property purchase.

    https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mm4uqmbbus2m

    Its a stupid lie to tell given that Farage made a load of money in the city, then in the EU parliament and then all this other grifts. And I imagine like lots of people of his age has done very well out of moving up the housing ladder. Therefore, I would say it is unsurprising he could have bought a £1 million house for cash, crypto sugar daddy or not *. But instead told another whopper and one that is easy to check (people had already checked this out days ago).

    * obviously if one was to think they might come into £5 million gift in the near future probably give you a lot more confidence.
    This £5m, was it seriously a single paid transaction from an overseas donor straight into Farage’s personal bank account?

    I understand that he wasn’t an MP at the time, but that’s the most inefficient way possible to make a donation to a politician.

    If it was actually for his security, you’d set up a company called “Reform MP Security Ltd” or similar, and pay the money to that entity.
    We might know, if he had declared it.
    But he must have paid tax on it? As income?

    Mustn't he?
    Not if it is a gift.

    Dan Neidle's got a piece on that due this week.
    But it is if it is payment for "services rendered" surely?
    If the payment is a bribe, whether Farage didn't declare it, or paid no tax on it is essentially irrelevant. It's like not declaring or not paying tax, on money you rob from the bank.

    No legitimate reason has been put forward so far for Farage to accept this £5 million into his personal account. The non declaration and possible non payment of tax are maybe taken into account if and when than question gets assessed. If for some reason it isn't actually a bribe the tax question might then become relevant.
    The bigger question is what has Farage promised in return for that £5m...
    Under the Bribery Act you don't need to prove a direct quid pro quo because most bribes are indirect: Why don't you get your daughter to apply for a job at my firm? Then some time later contracts are issued and it so happens that firm gets the deal.

    To be a bribe under the Act, two questions need to be answered in the affirmative, The first question is did Harborne offer a financial or other advantage to Farage, and did he accept it? As far as I know this is undisputed.

    The second question is, was the intention to get Farage to act improperly in his role, or could Farage have acted improperly as a consequence of recieving the money? Acting improperly could include breach of trust as a reasonable person would understand it. The wording of the Act is deliberately vague.
    I'm confused by this, because as far as I can see the causation is all the wrong way round. Farage and Co have always been pretty crypto friendly.

    Harborne giving donations to a party that's much keener on crypto than most others is unsupprising. It's also the way of the world - people and companies donate to political parties they agree with in the hopes that they will be elected to do the things with which they agree. Thus big business tends to donate to the Tories and the Unions bankroll Labour (admittedly, I see no reason why anyone donates to the Libdems - that is true charity).

    It might be different if Reform were in government, and they suddenly did a 180deg turn on a policy in a way that would suit a donor, but that's not the case here. Cf Blair and Bernie Eccleston if you want the real deal rather than fake reasons for outrage.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,276

    Theo Bertram
    @theobertram
    ·
    1h
    [Burnham's new view on fiscal rules] is a significant recalibration. Appears to rule out the changes to fiscal rules outlined by Lou Haigh in the Tribune paper (eg. 5 to 10 year; changing scoring to allow investment in Sure Start etc).

    https://x.com/theobertram/status/2056407573104923014


    ====

    Tribune is, what, 80 to 100 MPs?

    Significant chunk if there is an actual leadership race in the end
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    I actually think a lot of the ECHR problems could be solved by openly legislating conflicts with them and very publicly daring the "unelected foreign judges" to overrule the "elected sovereign British government" and face consequences such as suspension of all funding, suspension of UK membership and repealing all legislation relating to the ECHR in the country. Putting them in their place a bit would work wonders and I don't think they'd be able to defy the UK (and many other countries).

    Right now the unelected judges make crazy rulings and get away with it because they don't believe any country will defy them. As soon as one country does it they'll start to fall in line. Failing that start making consequences for them and suspend our membership while we enact proper border controls and deportation of foreign criminals and illegal immigrants.

    I don't see any other way out because the judges need to be brought to heel by the nation states.
    If you don't like the rulings, either change the laws or bin them altogether. I don't know why you'd fanny about with all the judge-defying stuff.
    How do you do that without leaving the ECHR? That's why you need strong politicians across Europe to start facing down the unelected judges and start forcing consequences on them when they make these ridiculous rulings.
    What do you think of the recent declaration in which the Council of Europe (as far as I understand it) told judges they were doing it all wrong?
    Pointless as it doesn't actually amend the law, it's just a declaration which they will ignore. Nation states need to band together and start legislating in national parliaments and dare those unelected judges to overrule the elected representatives.

    There will be a proportion of people who have suicidal empathy that will kick and scream as the foreign criminals and illegal immigrants are deported but I think overall it will be extremely popular.
    You've really embraced that 'suicidal empathy' term, haven't you.
    How else would you describe people who's empathy is so far gone that they protest the deportation of serious foreign criminals and celebrate court victories that bar the deportation of rapists and murderers?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    I actually think a lot of the ECHR problems could be solved by openly legislating conflicts with them and very publicly daring the "unelected foreign judges" to overrule the "elected sovereign British government" and face consequences such as suspension of all funding, suspension of UK membership and repealing all legislation relating to the ECHR in the country. Putting them in their place a bit would work wonders and I don't think they'd be able to defy the UK (and many other countries).

    Right now the unelected judges make crazy rulings and get away with it because they don't believe any country will defy them. As soon as one country does it they'll start to fall in line. Failing that start making consequences for them and suspend our membership while we enact proper border controls and deportation of foreign criminals and illegal immigrants.

    I don't see any other way out because the judges need to be brought to heel by the nation states.
    If you don't like the rulings, either change the laws or bin them altogether. I don't know why you'd fanny about with all the judge-defying stuff.
    How do you do that without leaving the ECHR? That's why you need strong politicians across Europe to start facing down the unelected judges and start forcing consequences on them when they make these ridiculous rulings.
    What do you think of the recent declaration in which the Council of Europe (as far as I understand it) told judges they were doing it all wrong?
    Pointless as it doesn't actually amend the law, it's just a declaration which they will ignore. Nation states need to band together and start legislating in national parliaments and dare those unelected judges to overrule the elected representatives.

    There will be a proportion of people who have suicidal empathy that will kick and scream as the foreign criminals and illegal immigrants are deported but I think overall it will be extremely popular.
    Not really.
    Given we're talking about international law, it's potentially of great significance.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,238
    Graham Stringer must be the most unpleasant self publicist the Labour Party has ever produced. If it wasn't for the existence of Richard Tice I would say 'any party'has produced.

    I'm rapidly going off the idea of Andy Burnham. In fact Starmer is starting to look like a class act
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    On thread - I'm happy to agree that a Conservative extinction is likely. But I could only see this as a failure of Kemi Badenoch if it was clear that someone else would do better. The best the Cons can hope for in the new political landscape is minor party status. It's implausible to think a different leader would be doing better. I find it unlikely either of the names sonetimes suggested here - Cleverly or Hunt - could be doung better.
    They've had their time, whoever is leader.

    +1 - for the Tory party to survive Reform needs to completely implode and I just don't see it...
    I still think that we could be moving towards a form of two-party politics between Reform and the Tories. The Tories just need hold their nerve until they're again seen as respectable by Lib Dem/Coalition type voters.
    That’s not going to happen . Continuing to be anti EU and pulling the UK out of the ECHR is a big issue .
    I think that as part of the realignment, the type of voters I'm talking about will begin to support those things but in a nice and pragmatic way rather than a nasty and ideological way.
    Sorry but Gallowgate is right - no-one who is looking at Labour / Green / Lib Dem is going to vote for a Tory party looking at changing the ECHR or that is anti-EU.

    And that's 45% minimum of voters... Reform and the tories are fighting over the same voters at the moment.
    I think it's a bit more nuanced than that. If they put an inverted triple-lock on student loans, two-state on Israel Palestine, and cracked into landlords on a home ownership ticket, that would be more than enough to offset an anti-EU position.

    ECHR is a different because it depends on what you replace it with - I think a large majority if people would agree that small boats is not an optimal refugee mechanism.
    I actually think a lot of the ECHR problems could be solved by openly legislating conflicts with them and very publicly daring the "unelected foreign judges" to overrule the "elected sovereign British government" and face consequences such as suspension of all funding, suspension of UK membership and repealing all legislation relating to the ECHR in the country. Putting them in their place a bit would work wonders and I don't think they'd be able to defy the UK (and many other countries).

    Right now the unelected judges make crazy rulings and get away with it because they don't believe any country will defy them. As soon as one country does it they'll start to fall in line. Failing that start making consequences for them and suspend our membership while we enact proper border controls and deportation of foreign criminals and illegal immigrants.

    I don't see any other way out because the judges need to be brought to heel by the nation states.
    If you don't like the rulings, either change the laws or bin them altogether. I don't know why you'd fanny about with all the judge-defying stuff.
    How do you do that without leaving the ECHR? That's why you need strong politicians across Europe to start facing down the unelected judges and start forcing consequences on them when they make these ridiculous rulings.
    What do you think of the recent declaration in which the Council of Europe (as far as I understand it) told judges they were doing it all wrong?
    Pointless as it doesn't actually amend the law, it's just a declaration which they will ignore. Nation states need to band together and start legislating in national parliaments and dare those unelected judges to overrule the elected representatives.

    There will be a proportion of people who have suicidal empathy that will kick and scream as the foreign criminals and illegal immigrants are deported but I think overall it will be extremely popular.
    You've really embraced that 'suicidal empathy' term, haven't you.
    How else would you describe people who's empathy is so far gone that they protest the deportation of serious foreign criminals and celebrate court victories that bar the deportation of rapists and murderers?
    I think you've got it from the right wing drivelpipe.

    But if it's original, apols.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2056403137380917508

    ***EXCLUSIVE*** Andy Burnham fully rules out changing Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules if he becomes PM

    At the weekend his team had left it open whether he might change them in future

    But tonight his spokesperson tells Bloomberg he is explicitly ruling out any changes to the existing fiscal rules

    AND crucially Burnham is now also ruling out exempting defence spending from the fiscal rules to spend more on the military

    No change with the EU relationship and no change to the economy, exactly what is Burnham going to do differently?!
    His one policy of significance is regional devolution of power.
    The extent of that is unclear, but it goes against forty years of centralisation which was economically disastrous for the regions, so I'll give him credit there for a policy of some significance.

    No doubt PB's London residents will be sceptical, but that's their problem.
    No, I love the place but I do think the country is too London centric.
    You're an old lefty prepared to make concessions.
    I suspect some of our regular will differ.

    As I recall, even the much lamented Alistair Meeks believed London investment came before everything.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,631
    Yougov labour member polling


    If there is a leadership contest, your first preference:
    Burnham 47%
    Starmer 31%
    Rayner 8%
    Streeting 4%
    Miliband 3%
    Cooper 3%
    Mahmood 1%
    Carns 0%

    Head to heads:
    Burnham 59% v Starmer 37%
    Burnham 80% v Streeting 10%
    Miliband 58% v Streeting 28%
    Rayner 70% v Streeting 19%

    On Keir Starmer, should he:
    Take party into next election 28%
    Remain as leader until closer to GE 33%
    Step down no / in months 33%

    YouGov polled 706 Labour members, May 14-18



    https://x.com/samcoatessky/status/2056434647827935456?s=61
This discussion has been closed.