For those interested in the human rights of the Palestinians Andy Burnham is 100% kosher which Wes Streeting is not. My guess is this will serve him well in the by election and it should serve him well against Starmer and Streeting if they turn out to be his competition for Party leader.
NB. Israel was yesterday polled as the most disliked country in the world.
One thing the new Labour leader has to do.
Be tough in Zionist Aggression
Be tough on Anti Semitism
Nail the lie perpetrated by the Zionists that the two are the same.
Tell The UK Jewish Council it will only get backing and support when it stands up and renounces Netanyahu and his barbarism
Nice generalisation about 'the Zionists' there. You realise the vast majority of British Jews would regard themselves as Zionists? But that doesn't stop them being critical of the Israeli government.
The world is in a very precarious position. War in Europe, rising Chinese dominance in East Asia and threats against microchip masters Taiwan. And yet for many on the left the biggest foreign policy priority is criticising a very small country that is an extremely useful defence partner of ours. No sense of national interest and then complaints about people flying the national flag.
It’s a lovely evening here in Northumberland as well, and I’ve just had a whisky tasting with puddings at England’s only single malt distillery which is ALSO on the site* of England’s earliest Anglo-Saxon palace, Ad Gefrin, complete with museum, a summer palace dating from 550AD complete with timber theatre and church and pagan temple and mentioned by Bede in his History of the English People
As you drink your whisky the walls turn into the colours of different seasons matching the mood of the booze
Clever
*actually about 3 miles away but hey
I'm not sure being the only distillery on that site is a claim to fame - there would hardly be room for two.
As I said, it’s “England’s only single malt distillery”. And apparently it is
A nice drop, as well. Not immortal but rather drinkable
There's a very palatable award winning single malt made in Norfolk.
Yes I think the guy giving us the booze got rather carried away. Looks like it’s the only single malt distillery in north east England. He sort of elided the “north east” bit
The best whisky in England, I reckon, is this stuff. Distillery saved by a friend of mine. It’s sensational. Rye whisky
Last week we had "Vote Reform to get rid of Starmer"
In the by-election it will be "Don't vote Reform to get rid of Starmer"
It would be so funny to see Mr Arrogant's bubble burst in a defeat at the hands of Reform.
Funniest of all for Starmer who would then likely beat Streeting in any leadership contest with Labour members and be secure as PM until the next GE. Given the Burnham positive polls though he should win
Rayner would stand if Burnham doesn't win the by-election. And likely win. But Streeting would have a better chance in such a scenario.
Starting with just a 5K majority in the current circumstances, makes this by-election look unwinnable for Burnham and Labour to me, but what do I know?
That's a good question. Reform will complete candidate selection by Sunday. The writ hasn't been moved. Has Simons actually applied for the Hundreds yet?
For those interested in the human rights of the Palestinians Andy Burnham is 100% kosher which Wes Streeting is not. My guess is this will serve him well in the by election and it should serve him well against Starmer and Streeting if they turn out to be his competition for Party leader.
NB. Israel was yesterday polled as the most disliked country in the world.
Do you think it's Allah's will that Israel exists?
Not sure what Roger thinks of Allah though he appears to have had a soft spot for the Ayatollah.
What I think Roger doesn't understand is that the reason people like myself are so minded to defend Israel is because it is so unpopular. Some of us don't really care about being liked.
Depends if Starmer wants to mess with Burnham. It was five months between resignation and by-election for for Michael Martin's constituency way back when.
Carpetbagger. Now that’s an interesting turn of phrase.
I’d argue that Andy Burnham absolutely is a carpetbagger.
Born in Aintree and grew up in Newton-le-Willows, yet in 2001 he was parachuted into the safe Labour seat of Leigh despite having little obvious connection to it. He then built much of his political identity around campaigning for justice for the Hillsborough families and his Merseyside roots, while simultaneously presenting himself as “Mr Manchester” when it suited his ambitions.
After losing two Labour leadership contests, he left Westminster altogether to become Mayor of Greater Manchester rather than remaining an MP or pursuing a political future on Merseyside. Since then, his name has repeatedly surfaced in connection with seats like Gorton and Denton, and now Makerfield.
Perhaps I get too bogged down in a literal reading of the English language, but the last time I checked, moving from constituency to constituency wherever the political opportunity arises is pretty much the definition of political carpetbagging.
cf. Boris Johnson, Peter Mandelson, Nigel Farage.
I think Carpetbagger is of US origin, in post Civil War Reconstruction of the former CSA. Yankee politicians arriving to administer the conquered states, alongside "scallywags" who were Southern turncoats working for the Union.
So doesn't fit Burnham, who is a local by both birth and choice.
Yes. It is a term that first originated in Reconstruction-era USA. However, Burnham is not local by birth. He’s from Liverpool. He was parachuted into Leigh and now runs Manchester. If I was born in Sheffield, parachuted into Barnsley and now ran Leeds, that would not make me local by birth. I can assure you now it would it take some time to win over the good folk of Beeston or Hunslet. And even after 30 years they’d still eye with suspicion!
He wasn't "parachuted" into Leigh. Culcheth is pretty much a suburb of it.
I think they'd probably rather be a suburb of Warrington.
What's noteworthy to me is the local PBers here who are close to the area seem to agree Burnham will win this.
This to me is comparable to when Boris replaced May. Farage led in the polls that year, then his party utterly faded away once the PM was changed.
This is even more than that a vote to change the PM - and one where the voters have the chance to replace a loathed London lawyer PM with a local one of their own, who is not utterly soiled.
They will take it with both hands. It won't even be close.
The last hour on PB has been the most ridiculous group based ultra wank since the Wanking Wankers of Wankstein had their Wankiest Wankfest since World Wank 2
A bunch of Reform-loathing centrist Dads all convincing each other Andy Burnham will win and win it big, “it won’t even be close”
On the basis that these people are always always wrong about Reform and always always under-estimate Reform I’m saying it will likely be very close. I have the odds at exactly evens
Its got nothing to do with Reform-loathing, and you're just another Southern fairy who does not understand the area.
I have said repeatedly that under any other circumstances I'd expect Reform to walk it.
This is sui generis though. A chance to replace the utterly loathed Starmer, with a far more respected/far less loathed local.
Reform aren't even the story.
Fair enough. In the spirit of PB shall we have a bet on it? You are convinced he will easily walk it. I feel it will be close. You could be right however, I’m definitely not northern
How about £20 on the margin of his victory? Less than 5,000 I win; more than 5,000 you win
Not a good value bet, 5,000 is massive in a by-election. He could easily win it and still win by less than 5,000.
The Greens won Gorton by a massive 12pp and won by less than 5k.
lol
So “he will win and win it big” and “it won’t even be close” somehow also means “he might win by 3,452 votes”
Weird how actual money pops hyperbolic balloons
"it will likely be very close" suddenly becomes, "Reform could lose by 4,500 votes."
You're a self-parody.
These are “massive” by election wins in the last few years by raw vote margin:
To me a massive victory where the result is “not even close” is in that bracket. Over 5,000. Which is why I chose that number to see what @BartholomewRoberts really thinks
You said you thought it would be very close and now you want to spin a margin of 4,999 votes as a victory for your prediction skills?
Starting with just a 5K majority in the current circumstances, makes this by-election look unwinnable for Burnham and Labour to me, but what do I know?
I agree with you but it appears to be a minority view here. Let's see!
Starting with just a 5K majority in the current circumstances, makes this by-election look unwinnable for Burnham and Labour to me, but what do I know?
I agree with you but it appears to be a minority view here. Let's see!
I have to admire Burnhams balls though. On paper, everything says he/Labour will lose this by election. If so, that will surely be the end of his Parliamentary ambitions and maybe even political career?
The stakes for him couldn't be higher... #AllOrNothing
That's a good question. Reform will complete candidate selection by Sunday. The writ hasn't been moved. Has Simons actually applied for the Hundreds yet?
Looks like Stephen Gethins was appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds earlier today.
So, a bit of a mixed day for Starmer. He loses a Health Secretary but Streeting then embarrasses himself by failing to find 81 supporters. But then Burnham gets a seat and he is too weak to block him again. Now Burnham taking over in a couple of months seems a formality and only Burnham losing the by election can hope to save him. The aspiration for 10 years looks dead, buried and not a little delusional. I think it is fair to say that he must be pretty disappointed.
What's noteworthy to me is the local PBers here who are close to the area seem to agree Burnham will win this.
This to me is comparable to when Boris replaced May. Farage led in the polls that year, then his party utterly faded away once the PM was changed.
This is even more than that a vote to change the PM - and one where the voters have the chance to replace a loathed London lawyer PM with a local one of their own, who is not utterly soiled.
They will take it with both hands. It won't even be close.
The last hour on PB has been the most ridiculous group based ultra wank since the Wanking Wankers of Wankstein had their Wankiest Wankfest since World Wank 2
A bunch of Reform-loathing centrist Dads all convincing each other Andy Burnham will win and win it big, “it won’t even be close”
On the basis that these people are always always wrong about Reform and always always under-estimate Reform I’m saying it will likely be very close. I have the odds at exactly evens
Its got nothing to do with Reform-loathing, and you're just another Southern fairy who does not understand the area.
I have said repeatedly that under any other circumstances I'd expect Reform to walk it.
This is sui generis though. A chance to replace the utterly loathed Starmer, with a far more respected/far less loathed local.
Reform aren't even the story.
Fair enough. In the spirit of PB shall we have a bet on it? You are convinced he will easily walk it. I feel it will be close. You could be right however, I’m definitely not northern
How about £20 on the margin of his victory? Less than 5,000 I win; more than 5,000 you win
Not a good value bet, 5,000 is massive in a by-election. He could easily win it and still win by less than 5,000.
The Greens won Gorton by a massive 12pp and won by less than 5k.
lol
So “he will win and win it big” and “it won’t even be close” somehow also means “he might win by 3,452 votes”
Weird how actual money pops hyperbolic balloons
"it will likely be very close" suddenly becomes, "Reform could lose by 4,500 votes."
You're a self-parody.
These are “massive” by election wins in the last few years by raw vote margin:
To me a massive victory where the result is “not even close” is in that bracket. Over 5,000. Which is why I chose that number to see what @BartholomewRoberts really thinks
You said you thought it would be very close and now you want to spin a margin of 4,999 votes as a victory for your prediction skills?
Give over.
What's your definition of "very close"?
Winchester by-election, 1997:
The Tory complained about the LibDem winning by only 2 votes at the GE, so a by-election was called.
That's a good question. Reform will complete candidate selection by Sunday. The writ hasn't been moved. Has Simons actually applied for the Hundreds yet?
Looks like Stephen Gethins was appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds earlier today.
What's noteworthy to me is the local PBers here who are close to the area seem to agree Burnham will win this.
This to me is comparable to when Boris replaced May. Farage led in the polls that year, then his party utterly faded away once the PM was changed.
This is even more than that a vote to change the PM - and one where the voters have the chance to replace a loathed London lawyer PM with a local one of their own, who is not utterly soiled.
They will take it with both hands. It won't even be close.
The last hour on PB has been the most ridiculous group based ultra wank since the Wanking Wankers of Wankstein had their Wankiest Wankfest since World Wank 2
A bunch of Reform-loathing centrist Dads all convincing each other Andy Burnham will win and win it big, “it won’t even be close”
On the basis that these people are always always wrong about Reform and always always under-estimate Reform I’m saying it will likely be very close. I have the odds at exactly evens
Its got nothing to do with Reform-loathing, and you're just another Southern fairy who does not understand the area.
I have said repeatedly that under any other circumstances I'd expect Reform to walk it.
This is sui generis though. A chance to replace the utterly loathed Starmer, with a far more respected/far less loathed local.
Reform aren't even the story.
Fair enough. In the spirit of PB shall we have a bet on it? You are convinced he will easily walk it. I feel it will be close. You could be right however, I’m definitely not northern
How about £20 on the margin of his victory? Less than 5,000 I win; more than 5,000 you win
Not a good value bet, 5,000 is massive in a by-election. He could easily win it and still win by less than 5,000.
The Greens won Gorton by a massive 12pp and won by less than 5k.
lol
So “he will win and win it big” and “it won’t even be close” somehow also means “he might win by 3,452 votes”
Weird how actual money pops hyperbolic balloons
"it will likely be very close" suddenly becomes, "Reform could lose by 4,500 votes."
You're a self-parody.
These are “massive” by election wins in the last few years by raw vote margin:
To me a massive victory where the result is “not even close” is in that bracket. Over 5,000. Which is why I chose that number to see what @BartholomewRoberts really thinks
You said you thought it would be very close and now you want to spin a margin of 4,999 votes as a victory for your prediction skills?
Give over.
What's your definition of "very close"?
Winchester by-election, 1997:
The Tory complained about the LibDem winning by only 2 votes at the GE, so a by-election was called.
The LibDem won by 21,556 votes.
I was there. It was huge fun. So many stories. Did we party.
That's a good question. Reform will complete candidate selection by Sunday. The writ hasn't been moved. Has Simons actually applied for the Hundreds yet?
Looks like Stephen Gethins was appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds earlier today.
Starting with just a 5K majority in the current circumstances, makes this by-election look unwinnable for Burnham and Labour to me, but what do I know?
I agree with you but it appears to be a minority view here. Let's see!
On the other hand, he got 20% above the Labour vote in the area, when last running for Mayor.
Starting with just a 5K majority in the current circumstances, makes this by-election look unwinnable for Burnham and Labour to me, but what do I know?
Personal votes can be very odd things sometimes. Burnham could win quite easily.
That's a good question. Reform will complete candidate selection by Sunday. The writ hasn't been moved. Has Simons actually applied for the Hundreds yet?
Looks like Stephen Gethins was appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds earlier today.
That's a good question. Reform will complete candidate selection by Sunday. The writ hasn't been moved. Has Simons actually applied for the Hundreds yet?
Looks like Stephen Gethins was appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds earlier today.
What's noteworthy to me is the local PBers here who are close to the area seem to agree Burnham will win this.
This to me is comparable to when Boris replaced May. Farage led in the polls that year, then his party utterly faded away once the PM was changed.
This is even more than that a vote to change the PM - and one where the voters have the chance to replace a loathed London lawyer PM with a local one of their own, who is not utterly soiled.
They will take it with both hands. It won't even be close.
The last hour on PB has been the most ridiculous group based ultra wank since the Wanking Wankers of Wankstein had their Wankiest Wankfest since World Wank 2
A bunch of Reform-loathing centrist Dads all convincing each other Andy Burnham will win and win it big, “it won’t even be close”
On the basis that these people are always always wrong about Reform and always always under-estimate Reform I’m saying it will likely be very close. I have the odds at exactly evens
Its got nothing to do with Reform-loathing, and you're just another Southern fairy who does not understand the area.
I have said repeatedly that under any other circumstances I'd expect Reform to walk it.
This is sui generis though. A chance to replace the utterly loathed Starmer, with a far more respected/far less loathed local.
Reform aren't even the story.
Fair enough. In the spirit of PB shall we have a bet on it? You are convinced he will easily walk it. I feel it will be close. You could be right however, I’m definitely not northern
How about £20 on the margin of his victory? Less than 5,000 I win; more than 5,000 you win
Not a good value bet, 5,000 is massive in a by-election. He could easily win it and still win by less than 5,000.
The Greens won Gorton by a massive 12pp and won by less than 5k.
lol
So “he will win and win it big” and “it won’t even be close” somehow also means “he might win by 3,452 votes”
Weird how actual money pops hyperbolic balloons
"it will likely be very close" suddenly becomes, "Reform could lose by 4,500 votes."
You're a self-parody.
These are “massive” by election wins in the last few years by raw vote margin:
To me a massive victory where the result is “not even close” is in that bracket. Over 5,000. Which is why I chose that number to see what @BartholomewRoberts really thinks
You said you thought it would be very close and now you want to spin a margin of 4,999 votes as a victory for your prediction skills?
Give over.
What's your definition of "very close"?
Winchester by-election, 1997:
The Tory complained about the LibDem winning by only 2 votes at the GE, so a by-election was called.
The LibDem won by 21,556 votes.
I was there. It was huge fun. So many stories. Did we party.
And Mark Oaten, the winner, nearly a decade later made the 46th greatest political scandal!
What's noteworthy to me is the local PBers here who are close to the area seem to agree Burnham will win this.
This to me is comparable to when Boris replaced May. Farage led in the polls that year, then his party utterly faded away once the PM was changed.
This is even more than that a vote to change the PM - and one where the voters have the chance to replace a loathed London lawyer PM with a local one of their own, who is not utterly soiled.
They will take it with both hands. It won't even be close.
The last hour on PB has been the most ridiculous group based ultra wank since the Wanking Wankers of Wankstein had their Wankiest Wankfest since World Wank 2
A bunch of Reform-loathing centrist Dads all convincing each other Andy Burnham will win and win it big, “it won’t even be close”
On the basis that these people are always always wrong about Reform and always always under-estimate Reform I’m saying it will likely be very close. I have the odds at exactly evens
Its got nothing to do with Reform-loathing, and you're just another Southern fairy who does not understand the area.
I have said repeatedly that under any other circumstances I'd expect Reform to walk it.
This is sui generis though. A chance to replace the utterly loathed Starmer, with a far more respected/far less loathed local.
Reform aren't even the story.
Fair enough. In the spirit of PB shall we have a bet on it? You are convinced he will easily walk it. I feel it will be close. You could be right however, I’m definitely not northern
How about £20 on the margin of his victory? Less than 5,000 I win; more than 5,000 you win
Not a good value bet, 5,000 is massive in a by-election. He could easily win it and still win by less than 5,000.
The Greens won Gorton by a massive 12pp and won by less than 5k.
lol
So “he will win and win it big” and “it won’t even be close” somehow also means “he might win by 3,452 votes”
Weird how actual money pops hyperbolic balloons
"it will likely be very close" suddenly becomes, "Reform could lose by 4,500 votes."
You're a self-parody.
These are “massive” by election wins in the last few years by raw vote margin:
To me a massive victory where the result is “not even close” is in that bracket. Over 5,000. Which is why I chose that number to see what @BartholomewRoberts really thinks
You said you thought it would be very close and now you want to spin a margin of 4,999 votes as a victory for your prediction skills?
Give over.
What's your definition of "very close"?
I’m not making a prediction. I was
1, trying to elucidate Bart’s real opinions
And
2. win a bet, given how convinced he seemed
My definition of very close is a raw vote margin under 2,000
Last week we had "Vote Reform to get rid of Starmer"
In the by-election it will be "Don't vote Reform to get rid of Starmer"
It would be so funny to see Mr Arrogant's bubble burst in a defeat at the hands of Reform.
Funniest of all for Starmer who would then likely beat Streeting in any leadership contest with Labour members and be secure as PM until the next GE. Given the Burnham positive polls though he should win
Starmer would only be secure until next Summer, when another leadership challenge would undoubtedly come in.
Rayner and Ed Miliband poll even worse than Starmer, so if he sees off Burnham and Streeting he would likely be secure
What's noteworthy to me is the local PBers here who are close to the area seem to agree Burnham will win this.
This to me is comparable to when Boris replaced May. Farage led in the polls that year, then his party utterly faded away once the PM was changed.
This is even more than that a vote to change the PM - and one where the voters have the chance to replace a loathed London lawyer PM with a local one of their own, who is not utterly soiled.
They will take it with both hands. It won't even be close.
The last hour on PB has been the most ridiculous group based ultra wank since the Wanking Wankers of Wankstein had their Wankiest Wankfest since World Wank 2
A bunch of Reform-loathing centrist Dads all convincing each other Andy Burnham will win and win it big, “it won’t even be close”
On the basis that these people are always always wrong about Reform and always always under-estimate Reform I’m saying it will likely be very close. I have the odds at exactly evens
Its got nothing to do with Reform-loathing, and you're just another Southern fairy who does not understand the area.
I have said repeatedly that under any other circumstances I'd expect Reform to walk it.
This is sui generis though. A chance to replace the utterly loathed Starmer, with a far more respected/far less loathed local.
Reform aren't even the story.
Fair enough. In the spirit of PB shall we have a bet on it? You are convinced he will easily walk it. I feel it will be close. You could be right however, I’m definitely not northern
How about £20 on the margin of his victory? Less than 5,000 I win; more than 5,000 you win
Not a good value bet, 5,000 is massive in a by-election. He could easily win it and still win by less than 5,000.
The Greens won Gorton by a massive 12pp and won by less than 5k.
lol
So “he will win and win it big” and “it won’t even be close” somehow also means “he might win by 3,452 votes”
Weird how actual money pops hyperbolic balloons
"it will likely be very close" suddenly becomes, "Reform could lose by 4,500 votes."
You're a self-parody.
These are “massive” by election wins in the last few years by raw vote margin:
To me a massive victory where the result is “not even close” is in that bracket. Over 5,000. Which is why I chose that number to see what @BartholomewRoberts really thinks
You said you thought it would be very close and now you want to spin a margin of 4,999 votes as a victory for your prediction skills?
Give over.
What's your definition of "very close"?
Winchester by-election, 1997:
The Tory complained about the LibDem winning by only 2 votes at the GE, so a by-election was called.
The LibDem won by 21,556 votes.
I was there. It was huge fun. So many stories. Did we party.
And Mark Oaten, the winner, nearly a decade later made the 46th greatest political scandal!
That's a good question. Reform will complete candidate selection by Sunday. The writ hasn't been moved. Has Simons actually applied for the Hundreds yet?
Looks like Stephen Gethins was appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds earlier today.
@Tomorrow'sMPs @tomorrowsmps 🟣MAKERFIELD: Will Reform again pick Robert Kenyon, who ran in 2024, a plumber (like Green winner in Gorton & Denton, Hannah Spencer)? Kenyon was elected for Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield ward to Wigan Council last week. He's served in British Army & worked 6 years in NHS.
@Tomorrow'sMPs @tomorrowsmps 🟣MAKERFIELD: Will Reform again pick Robert Kenyon, who ran in 2024, a plumber (like Green winner in Gorton & Denton, Hannah Spencer)? Kenyon was elected for Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield ward to Wigan Council last week. He's served in British Army & worked 6 years in NHS.
Will he stop stories like this being leaked in advance?
For those interested in the human rights of the Palestinians Andy Burnham is 100% kosher which Wes Streeting is not. My guess is this will serve him well in the by election and it should serve him well against Starmer and Streeting if they turn out to be his competition for Party leader.
NB. Israel was yesterday polled as the most disliked country in the world.
One thing the new Labour leader has to do.
Be tough in Zionist Aggression
Be tough on Anti Semitism
Nail the lie perpetrated by the Zionists that the two are the same.
Tell The UK Jewish Council it will only get backing and support when it stands up and renounces Netanyahu and his barbarism
Nice generalisation about 'the Zionists' there. You realise the vast majority of British Jews would regard themselves as Zionists? But that doesn't stop them being critical of the Israeli government.
The world is in a very precarious position. War in Europe, rising Chinese dominance in East Asia and threats against microchip masters Taiwan. And yet for many on the left the biggest foreign policy priority is criticising a very small country that is an extremely useful defence partner of ours. No sense of national interest and then complaints about people flying the national flag.
For a section of the left, Israel/Palestine seems to be the issue that lives in their heads.
@Tomorrow'sMPs @tomorrowsmps 🟣MAKERFIELD: Will Reform again pick Robert Kenyon, who ran in 2024, a plumber (like Green winner in Gorton & Denton, Hannah Spencer)? Kenyon was elected for Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield ward to Wigan Council last week. He's served in British Army & worked 6 years in NHS.
Reform want a new general election, they keep going on about it. There’s an argument (not much of one) that a new leader should mean a new general election, so Reform should want Burnham to win, so he becomes the new leader and that justifies the need for a general election.
Its council area, Wigan, was 63% Leave. So it is a good test for Burnham, if he wins it reasonably comfortably then he may well be the Messiah and Farage slayer Labour are seeking
So, a bit of a mixed day for Starmer. He loses a Health Secretary but Streeting then embarrasses himself by failing to find 81 supporters. But then Burnham gets a seat and he is too weak to block him again. Now Burnham taking over in a couple of months seems a formality and only Burnham losing the by election can hope to save him. The aspiration for 10 years looks dead, buried and not a little delusional. I think it is fair to say that he must be pretty disappointed.
Yeh. but apparently his old mucker Morgan is back in Downing Street helping out so that must be a consolation.
@Tomorrow'sMPs @tomorrowsmps 🟣MAKERFIELD: Will Reform again pick Robert Kenyon, who ran in 2024, a plumber (like Green winner in Gorton & Denton, Hannah Spencer)? Kenyon was elected for Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield ward to Wigan Council last week. He's served in British Army & worked 6 years in NHS.
Will he stop stories like this being leaked in advance?
Its council area, Wigan, was 63% Leave. So it is a good test for Burnham, if he wins it reasonably comfortably then he may well be the Messiah and Farage slayer Labour are seeking
What's noteworthy to me is the local PBers here who are close to the area seem to agree Burnham will win this.
This to me is comparable to when Boris replaced May. Farage led in the polls that year, then his party utterly faded away once the PM was changed.
This is even more than that a vote to change the PM - and one where the voters have the chance to replace a loathed London lawyer PM with a local one of their own, who is not utterly soiled.
They will take it with both hands. It won't even be close.
The last hour on PB has been the most ridiculous group based ultra wank since the Wanking Wankers of Wankstein had their Wankiest Wankfest since World Wank 2
A bunch of Reform-loathing centrist Dads all convincing each other Andy Burnham will win and win it big, “it won’t even be close”
On the basis that these people are always always wrong about Reform and always always under-estimate Reform I’m saying it will likely be very close. I have the odds at exactly evens
Its got nothing to do with Reform-loathing, and you're just another Southern fairy who does not understand the area.
I have said repeatedly that under any other circumstances I'd expect Reform to walk it.
This is sui generis though. A chance to replace the utterly loathed Starmer, with a far more respected/far less loathed local.
Reform aren't even the story.
Fair enough. In the spirit of PB shall we have a bet on it? You are convinced he will easily walk it. I feel it will be close. You could be right however, I’m definitely not northern
How about £20 on the margin of his victory? Less than 5,000 I win; more than 5,000 you win
Not a good value bet, 5,000 is massive in a by-election. He could easily win it and still win by less than 5,000.
The Greens won Gorton by a massive 12pp and won by less than 5k.
lol
So “he will win and win it big” and “it won’t even be close” somehow also means “he might win by 3,452 votes”
Weird how actual money pops hyperbolic balloons
"it will likely be very close" suddenly becomes, "Reform could lose by 4,500 votes."
You're a self-parody.
These are “massive” by election wins in the last few years by raw vote margin:
To me a massive victory where the result is “not even close” is in that bracket. Over 5,000. Which is why I chose that number to see what @BartholomewRoberts really thinks
You said you thought it would be very close and now you want to spin a margin of 4,999 votes as a victory for your prediction skills?
Give over.
What's your definition of "very close"?
I’m not making a prediction. I was
1, trying to elucidate Bart’s real opinions
And
2. win a bet, given how convinced he seemed
My definition of very close is a raw vote margin under 2,000
You don't have the courage of your convictions then. 2,000! Talk about hedging your bets.
For those interested in the human rights of the Palestinians Andy Burnham is 100% kosher which Wes Streeting is not. My guess is this will serve him well in the by election and it should serve him well against Starmer and Streeting if they turn out to be his competition for Party leader.
NB. Israel was yesterday polled as the most disliked country in the world.
One thing the new Labour leader has to do.
Be tough in Zionist Aggression
Be tough on Anti Semitism
Nail the lie perpetrated by the Zionists that the two are the same.
Tell The UK Jewish Council it will only get backing and support when it stands up and renounces Netanyahu and his barbarism
Nice generalisation about 'the Zionists' there. You realise the vast majority of British Jews would regard themselves as Zionists? But that doesn't stop them being critical of the Israeli government.
The world is in a very precarious position. War in Europe, rising Chinese dominance in East Asia and threats against microchip masters Taiwan. And yet for many on the left the biggest foreign policy priority is criticising a very small country that is an extremely useful defence partner of ours. No sense of national interest and then complaints about people flying the national flag.
For a section of the left, Israel/Palestine seems to be the issue that lives in their heads.
According to Andrew Gilligan it isn't actually that high a priority for British Muslims. Yet for those seeking office as independents or Greens plus the eternally disgruntled left of the Labour party it's central to everything.
@Tomorrow'sMPs @tomorrowsmps 🟣MAKERFIELD: Will Reform again pick Robert Kenyon, who ran in 2024, a plumber (like Green winner in Gorton & Denton, Hannah Spencer)? Kenyon was elected for Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield ward to Wigan Council last week. He's served in British Army & worked 6 years in NHS.
Will he stop stories like this being leaked in advance?
Or will he fight from the sewer?
You'll have to pipe up with something better than that before I tap out.
So every party is running right? Can't see Tories, LibDems or Greens dropping out...
I think Galloway said that if Burnham was the Labour candidate in Gorton and Denton he would contest that by-election, but I'm not sure he will be tempted in Makerfield.
You'd expect a pretty long list of candidates though.
What's noteworthy to me is the local PBers here who are close to the area seem to agree Burnham will win this.
This to me is comparable to when Boris replaced May. Farage led in the polls that year, then his party utterly faded away once the PM was changed.
This is even more than that a vote to change the PM - and one where the voters have the chance to replace a loathed London lawyer PM with a local one of their own, who is not utterly soiled.
They will take it with both hands. It won't even be close.
The last hour on PB has been the most ridiculous group based ultra wank since the Wanking Wankers of Wankstein had their Wankiest Wankfest since World Wank 2
A bunch of Reform-loathing centrist Dads all convincing each other Andy Burnham will win and win it big, “it won’t even be close”
On the basis that these people are always always wrong about Reform and always always under-estimate Reform I’m saying it will likely be very close. I have the odds at exactly evens
Its got nothing to do with Reform-loathing, and you're just another Southern fairy who does not understand the area.
I have said repeatedly that under any other circumstances I'd expect Reform to walk it.
This is sui generis though. A chance to replace the utterly loathed Starmer, with a far more respected/far less loathed local.
Reform aren't even the story.
Fair enough. In the spirit of PB shall we have a bet on it? You are convinced he will easily walk it. I feel it will be close. You could be right however, I’m definitely not northern
How about £20 on the margin of his victory? Less than 5,000 I win; more than 5,000 you win
Not a good value bet, 5,000 is massive in a by-election. He could easily win it and still win by less than 5,000.
The Greens won Gorton by a massive 12pp and won by less than 5k.
lol
So “he will win and win it big” and “it won’t even be close” somehow also means “he might win by 3,452 votes”
Weird how actual money pops hyperbolic balloons
"it will likely be very close" suddenly becomes, "Reform could lose by 4,500 votes."
You're a self-parody.
These are “massive” by election wins in the last few years by raw vote margin:
To me a massive victory where the result is “not even close” is in that bracket. Over 5,000. Which is why I chose that number to see what @BartholomewRoberts really thinks
You said you thought it would be very close and now you want to spin a margin of 4,999 votes as a victory for your prediction skills?
Give over.
What's your definition of "very close"?
I’m not making a prediction. I was
1, trying to elucidate Bart’s real opinions
And
2. win a bet, given how convinced he seemed
My definition of very close is a raw vote margin under 2,000
You don't have the courage of your convictions then. 2,000! Talk about hedging your bets.
Why are these bets in terms of votes? Given uncertainty on turnout, percentage points surely?
Starting with just a 5K majority in the current circumstances, makes this by-election look unwinnable for Burnham and Labour to me, but what do I know?
I agree with you but it appears to be a minority view here. Let's see!
I have to admire Burnhams balls though. On paper, everything says he/Labour will lose this by election. If so, that will surely be the end of his Parliamentary ambitions and maybe even political career?
The stakes for him couldn't be higher... #AllOrNothing
Even the local Reform guy interviewed on R4 thought Burnham would win - "it's a vote for getting rid of Starmer".
What's noteworthy to me is the local PBers here who are close to the area seem to agree Burnham will win this.
This to me is comparable to when Boris replaced May. Farage led in the polls that year, then his party utterly faded away once the PM was changed.
This is even more than that a vote to change the PM - and one where the voters have the chance to replace a loathed London lawyer PM with a local one of their own, who is not utterly soiled.
They will take it with both hands. It won't even be close.
The last hour on PB has been the most ridiculous group based ultra wank since the Wanking Wankers of Wankstein had their Wankiest Wankfest since World Wank 2
A bunch of Reform-loathing centrist Dads all convincing each other Andy Burnham will win and win it big, “it won’t even be close”
On the basis that these people are always always wrong about Reform and always always under-estimate Reform I’m saying it will likely be very close. I have the odds at exactly evens
Its got nothing to do with Reform-loathing, and you're just another Southern fairy who does not understand the area.
I have said repeatedly that under any other circumstances I'd expect Reform to walk it.
This is sui generis though. A chance to replace the utterly loathed Starmer, with a far more respected/far less loathed local.
Reform aren't even the story.
Fair enough. In the spirit of PB shall we have a bet on it? You are convinced he will easily walk it. I feel it will be close. You could be right however, I’m definitely not northern
How about £20 on the margin of his victory? Less than 5,000 I win; more than 5,000 you win
Not a good value bet, 5,000 is massive in a by-election. He could easily win it and still win by less than 5,000.
The Greens won Gorton by a massive 12pp and won by less than 5k.
lol
So “he will win and win it big” and “it won’t even be close” somehow also means “he might win by 3,452 votes”
Weird how actual money pops hyperbolic balloons
"it will likely be very close" suddenly becomes, "Reform could lose by 4,500 votes."
You're a self-parody.
These are “massive” by election wins in the last few years by raw vote margin:
To me a massive victory where the result is “not even close” is in that bracket. Over 5,000. Which is why I chose that number to see what @BartholomewRoberts really thinks
You said you thought it would be very close and now you want to spin a margin of 4,999 votes as a victory for your prediction skills?
Give over.
What's your definition of "very close"?
I’m not making a prediction. I was
1, trying to elucidate Bart’s real opinions
And
2. win a bet, given how convinced he seemed
My definition of very close is a raw vote margin under 2,000
A good bet would be 1p per winning margin
REF win by 3000 you win £30. By 8000 £80. By 500 £5 etc
How does anybody know what the "Burnham effect" is though? There's no way of knowing exactly how many percentages Burnham personally puts on to Labours vote share in this particular seat?
@Tomorrow'sMPs @tomorrowsmps 🟣MAKERFIELD: Will Reform again pick Robert Kenyon, who ran in 2024, a plumber (like Green winner in Gorton & Denton, Hannah Spencer)? Kenyon was elected for Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield ward to Wigan Council last week. He's served in British Army & worked 6 years in NHS.
How would Farage make money from potential candidates if they select the previous one
So every party is running right? Can't see Tories, LibDems or Greens dropping out...
I think Galloway said that if Burnham was the Labour candidate in Gorton and Denton he would contest that by-election, but I'm not sure he will be tempted in Makerfield.
You'd expect a pretty long list of candidates though.
Rupert Lowe has tweeted how much he enjoyed visiting Wigan as a football chairman. Now that would be box office.
For those interested in the human rights of the Palestinians Andy Burnham is 100% kosher which Wes Streeting is not. My guess is this will serve him well in the by election and it should serve him well against Starmer and Streeting if they turn out to be his competition for Party leader.
NB. Israel was yesterday polled as the most disliked country in the world.
One thing the new Labour leader has to do.
Be tough in Zionist Aggression
Be tough on Anti Semitism
Nail the lie perpetrated by the Zionists that the two are the same.
Tell The UK Jewish Council it will only get backing and support when it stands up and renounces Netanyahu and his barbarism
Nice generalisation about 'the Zionists' there. You realise the vast majority of British Jews would regard themselves as Zionists? But that doesn't stop them being critical of the Israeli government.
The world is in a very precarious position. War in Europe, rising Chinese dominance in East Asia and threats against microchip masters Taiwan. And yet for many on the left the biggest foreign policy priority is criticising a very small country that is an extremely useful defence partner of ours. No sense of national interest and then complaints about people flying the national flag.
For a section of the left, Israel/Palestine seems to be the issue that lives in their heads.
According to Andrew Gilligan it isn't actually that high a priority for British Muslims. Yet for those seeking office as independents or Greens plus the eternally disgruntled left of the Labour party it's central to everything.
I think it's displacement activity. Concentrating on a conflict some distance away is a way of not having to face the political difficulties closer to home.
@Tomorrow'sMPs @tomorrowsmps 🟣MAKERFIELD: Will Reform again pick Robert Kenyon, who ran in 2024, a plumber (like Green winner in Gorton & Denton, Hannah Spencer)? Kenyon was elected for Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield ward to Wigan Council last week. He's served in British Army & worked 6 years in NHS.
Will he stop stories like this being leaked in advance?
Or will he fight from the sewer?
You'll have to pipe up with something better than that before I tap out.
It will be a wrench for him to give up the day job, but standing up for brass unions, and campaigning to stopcocks.
How does anybody know what the "Burnham effect" is though? There's no way of knowing exactly how many percentages Burnham personally puts on to Labours vote share in this particular seat?
One would assume Burnham has been doing private polling across Manchester and has a pretty good grasp of which seats he'd win? Would be pretty stupid if they are just guessing.
Starting with just a 5K majority in the current circumstances, makes this by-election look unwinnable for Burnham and Labour to me, but what do I know?
I agree with you but it appears to be a minority view here. Let's see!
I have to admire Burnhams balls though. On paper, everything says he/Labour will lose this by election. If so, that will surely be the end of his Parliamentary ambitions and maybe even political career?
The stakes for him couldn't be higher... #AllOrNothing
Even the local Reform guy interviewed on R4 thought Burnham would win - "it's a vote for getting rid of Starmer".
Personally I can't see it but we shall find out in about 4 weeks. Time will tell as always.
What's noteworthy to me is the local PBers here who are close to the area seem to agree Burnham will win this.
This to me is comparable to when Boris replaced May. Farage led in the polls that year, then his party utterly faded away once the PM was changed.
This is even more than that a vote to change the PM - and one where the voters have the chance to replace a loathed London lawyer PM with a local one of their own, who is not utterly soiled.
They will take it with both hands. It won't even be close.
The last hour on PB has been the most ridiculous group based ultra wank since the Wanking Wankers of Wankstein had their Wankiest Wankfest since World Wank 2
A bunch of Reform-loathing centrist Dads all convincing each other Andy Burnham will win and win it big, “it won’t even be close”
On the basis that these people are always always wrong about Reform and always always under-estimate Reform I’m saying it will likely be very close. I have the odds at exactly evens
Its got nothing to do with Reform-loathing, and you're just another Southern fairy who does not understand the area.
I have said repeatedly that under any other circumstances I'd expect Reform to walk it.
This is sui generis though. A chance to replace the utterly loathed Starmer, with a far more respected/far less loathed local.
Reform aren't even the story.
Fair enough. In the spirit of PB shall we have a bet on it? You are convinced he will easily walk it. I feel it will be close. You could be right however, I’m definitely not northern
How about £20 on the margin of his victory? Less than 5,000 I win; more than 5,000 you win
Not a good value bet, 5,000 is massive in a by-election. He could easily win it and still win by less than 5,000.
The Greens won Gorton by a massive 12pp and won by less than 5k.
lol
So “he will win and win it big” and “it won’t even be close” somehow also means “he might win by 3,452 votes”
Weird how actual money pops hyperbolic balloons
"it will likely be very close" suddenly becomes, "Reform could lose by 4,500 votes."
You're a self-parody.
These are “massive” by election wins in the last few years by raw vote margin:
To me a massive victory where the result is “not even close” is in that bracket. Over 5,000. Which is why I chose that number to see what @BartholomewRoberts really thinks
You said you thought it would be very close and now you want to spin a margin of 4,999 votes as a victory for your prediction skills?
Give over.
What's your definition of "very close"?
I’m not making a prediction. I was
1, trying to elucidate Bart’s real opinions
And
2. win a bet, given how convinced he seemed
My definition of very close is a raw vote margin under 2,000
You don't have the courage of your convictions then. 2,000! Talk about hedging your bets.
Why are these bets in terms of votes? Given uncertainty on turnout, percentage points surely?
I'm not proposing a bet, and in my question to Bart I did ask in terms of percentage points, because I agree that is a better way of thinking about what constitutes a very large win.
How does anybody know what the "Burnham effect" is though? There's no way of knowing exactly how many percentages Burnham personally puts on to Labours vote share in this particular seat?
You can compare the Mayoral elections to the Council elections on the same day. Although the wards have been redrawn.
@Tomorrow'sMPs @tomorrowsmps 🟣MAKERFIELD: Will Reform again pick Robert Kenyon, who ran in 2024, a plumber (like Green winner in Gorton & Denton, Hannah Spencer)? Kenyon was elected for Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield ward to Wigan Council last week. He's served in British Army & worked 6 years in NHS.
Will he stop stories like this being leaked in advance?
Or will he fight from the sewer?
You'll have to pipe up with something better than that before I tap out.
It will be a wrench for him to give up the day job, but standing up for brass unions, and campaigning to stopcocks.
If he is planning to stop cocks from being in parliament then there is no way Farage will allow him to stand.
@Tomorrow'sMPs @tomorrowsmps 🟣MAKERFIELD: Will Reform again pick Robert Kenyon, who ran in 2024, a plumber (like Green winner in Gorton & Denton, Hannah Spencer)? Kenyon was elected for Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield ward to Wigan Council last week. He's served in British Army & worked 6 years in NHS.
Will he stop stories like this being leaked in advance?
Or will he fight from the sewer?
You'll have to pipe up with something better than that before I tap out.
It will be a wrench for him to give up the day job, but standing up for brass unions, and campaigning to stopcocks.
If he is planning to stop cocks from being in parliament then there is no way Farage will allow him to stand.
Had a fun day today of trying to glean some logic from the kremlinology of Labour internal politics. It’s nowhere near as easy to read as the Tory soap operas. First a call with the head of a Burnhamite think tank to try to understand what precisely the “soft left” actually means, and then a dinner with a Westminster journo/podcaster to get some reading of the runes. It’s interesting chatting with proper Labour types. (Except when they lapse into their favoured condescension towards the Lib Dems).
The result is I still don’t understand internal Labour politics.
Had a fun day today of trying to glean some logic from the kremlinology of Labour internal politics. It’s nowhere near as easy to read as the Tory soap operas. First a call with the head of a Burnhamite think tank to try to understand what precisely the “soft left” actually means, and then a dinner with a Westminster journo/podcaster to get some reading of the runes. It’s interesting chatting with proper Labour types. (Except when they lapse into their favoured condescension towards the Lib Dems).
The result is I still don’t understand internal Labour politics.
They are all either soft left or hard left until they enter cabinet. Then they become Tories in disguise.
It's a lovely evening in Greater Manchester. I have just seen a heron and several swifts.
Can’t be Manchester - it’s not raining.
Fake news. It never rains. It's like the Atacama Desert, only drier
I've been to both Wigan stations! Northwestern (2015) and Wallgate (2017).
Had a really nice cheese pasty from the shop nextdoor, but ended up accidentally dropping half of it on Wallgate station platform!
Have you done many railways outside of Britain?
It wouldn't take long to do the Irish network. I saw a photo a while back of the train pulling up the track from the Baltimore and Schull light railway when that was dismantled. The trains only went at 12mph on that line.
How does anybody know what the "Burnham effect" is though? There's no way of knowing exactly how many percentages Burnham personally puts on to Labours vote share in this particular seat?
There is from the Burnham bounce seen in polls, if Burnham wins this by election I think he likely beats Reform at the next general election, so not great for Farage. Nor Polanski as polling shows he does much better with Green voters than Starmer is. Not great for Kemi either as she has benefited too the last few weeks from Starmer's unpopularity relative to her but polls have Burnham significantly more popular than Kemi
It's a lovely evening in Greater Manchester. I have just seen a heron and several swifts.
Can’t be Manchester - it’s not raining.
Fake news. It never rains. It's like the Atacama Desert, only drier
I've been to both Wigan stations! Northwestern (2015) and Wallgate (2017).
Had a really nice cheese pasty from the shop nextdoor, but ended up accidentally dropping half of it on Wallgate station platform!
Two issues here. One major one minor. Neither of those stations are in Makerfield. Of far, far more import. I'm assuming you went to Poole's. And BOUGHT A PASTY!!!! They must have known you were a stranger.
Had a fun day today of trying to glean some logic from the kremlinology of Labour internal politics. It’s nowhere near as easy to read as the Tory soap operas. First a call with the head of a Burnhamite think tank to try to understand what precisely the “soft left” actually means, and then a dinner with a Westminster journo/podcaster to get some reading of the runes. It’s interesting chatting with proper Labour types. (Except when they lapse into their favoured condescension towards the Lib Dems).
The result is I still don’t understand internal Labour politics.
As an outsider, my question is: are the soft left secret leftists who want to get into power and will be soft to do it, or a different tribe? See also: are centre right tories secret rightists who just want to get into power?
My bad ! So thanks for correcting . Given that I’d expect Reform to go after Burnham on the EU issue .
Presumably Burnham urged the people there to REMAIN yet they ignored the "King Of The North" and voted LEAVE?
His "personal vote" didn't bring it home for REMAIN in 2016 did it? Having said that, it was all a long time ago and things have moved on, but still, it does add another element of doubt, IMO.
Absolutely. If there were a Burnham bounce (and we are very early days yet - a lot of events to come) then yes it is entirely plausible he would go to the country early. Maybe even 2027.
Had a fun day today of trying to glean some logic from the kremlinology of Labour internal politics. It’s nowhere near as easy to read as the Tory soap operas. First a call with the head of a Burnhamite think tank to try to understand what precisely the “soft left” actually means, and then a dinner with a Westminster journo/podcaster to get some reading of the runes. It’s interesting chatting with proper Labour types. (Except when they lapse into their favoured condescension towards the Lib Dems).
The result is I still don’t understand internal Labour politics.
As far as I can understand it from all my family (I'm the only one who's never been a member), soft left means not a nationalise everything now type and not a do owt to get elected type. So can be almost anything really.
How does anybody know what the "Burnham effect" is though? There's no way of knowing exactly how many percentages Burnham personally puts on to Labours vote share in this particular seat?
There is from the Burnham bounce seen in polls, if Burnham wins this by election I think he likely beats Reform at the next general election, so not great for Farage. Nor Polanski as polling shows he does much better with Green voters than Starmer is. Not great for Kemi either as she has benefited too the last few weeks from Starmer's unpopularity relative to her but polls have Burnham significantly more popular than Kemi
It is simply too early to say HYUFD. We can’t predict any of this so far out.
Had a fun day today of trying to glean some logic from the kremlinology of Labour internal politics. It’s nowhere near as easy to read as the Tory soap operas. First a call with the head of a Burnhamite think tank to try to understand what precisely the “soft left” actually means, and then a dinner with a Westminster journo/podcaster to get some reading of the runes. It’s interesting chatting with proper Labour types. (Except when they lapse into their favoured condescension towards the Lib Dems).
The result is I still don’t understand internal Labour politics.
As far as I can understand it from all my family (I'm the only one who's never been a member), soft left means not a nationalise everything now type and not a do owt to get elected type. So can be almost anything really.
It’s also moved.
In the mid 2000s soft left types were not ever expecting to nationalise anything.
Comments
The world is in a very precarious position. War in Europe, rising Chinese dominance in East Asia and threats against microchip masters Taiwan. And yet for many on the left the biggest foreign policy priority is criticising a very small country that is an extremely useful defence partner of ours. No sense of national interest and then complaints about people flying the national flag.
The best whisky in England, I reckon, is this stuff. Distillery saved by a friend of mine. It’s sensational. Rye whisky
https://dram1.com/fielden-rye/
I may apply.
Minimum of 21 or so days after that iirc.
And probably decide the names of the candidates he'll be up against too.
The writ hasn't been moved. Has Simons actually applied for the Hundreds yet?
What I think Roger doesn't understand is that the reason people like myself are so minded to defend Israel is because it is so unpopular. Some of us don't really care about being liked.
Burnham coronated by end of the process. PM by the summer.
Cheshire will be free
Give over.
What's your definition of "very close"?
The stakes for him couldn't be higher... #AllOrNothing
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/three-hundreds-of-chiltern--2
Maybe Simons is the other one, the Steward and Baliff of the manor of Northstead.
Edit: Ah, no, that's Stephen Flynn.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/manor-of-northstead--2
The Tory complained about the LibDem winning by only 2 votes at the GE, so a by-election was called.
The LibDem won by 21,556 votes.
He is very popular in Manchester.
So Burnham should be favourite.
I also think a Labour poll lead is now very likely.
This is solely for aptness, given the full title of the Chiltern Hundreds apparently is....
Crown Steward and Bailiff of the three Chiltern Hundreds of Stoke, Desborough and Burnham
https://web.archive.org/web/20120204014609/http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/3756033/top-50-political-scandals-part-one.thtml
Prize for first journalist to remind Burnham about leadership elections not leading to general elections.
1, trying to elucidate Bart’s real opinions
And
2. win a bet, given how convinced he seemed
My definition of very close is a raw vote margin under 2,000
@Tomorrow'sMPs
@tomorrowsmps
🟣MAKERFIELD: Will Reform again pick Robert Kenyon, who ran in 2024, a plumber (like Green winner in Gorton & Denton, Hannah Spencer)? Kenyon was elected for Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield ward to Wigan Council last week. He's served in British Army & worked 6 years in NHS.
I suppose Starmer had his chance.
I’m backing Burnham.
He adds it's one of the tightest Labour-Reform contests and a "much tougher" election to win than Gorton and Denton'
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2055030825888915909?s=20
It suggests a result closer to:
🟥 LAB: 40.7% (-4.5)
➡️ RFM: 38.7% (+6.9)
🟩 GRN: 7.8% (+3.4)
+/- vs. GE2024
If the constituency voted today'
https://x.com/JoshHousden/status/2054971152586457156?s=20
You'd expect a pretty long list of candidates though.
REF win by 3000 you win £30. By 8000 £80. By 500 £5 etc
ANDY win - the same except you lose
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit-votes-by-constituency/
E14000805 Makerfield 64.9%
Now that would be box office.
Rayner today, Streeting and now Burnham. They’ve obviously all concluded it’s Burnham v Starmer.
Had a really nice cheese pasty from the shop nextdoor, but ended up accidentally dropping half of it on Wallgate station platform!
The result is I still don’t understand internal Labour politics.
The optics would be awful.
It wouldn't take long to do the Irish network. I saw a photo a while back of the train pulling up the track from the Baltimore and Schull light railway when that was dismantled. The trains only went at 12mph on that line.
Neither of those stations are in Makerfield.
Of far, far more import.
I'm assuming you went to Poole's. And BOUGHT A PASTY!!!!
They must have known you were a stranger.
His "personal vote" didn't bring it home for REMAIN in 2016 did it? Having said that, it was all a long time ago and things have moved on, but still, it does add another element of doubt, IMO.
So can be almost anything really.
In the mid 2000s soft left types were not ever expecting to nationalise anything.