Labour are the favourites to win the Makerfield by-election – politicalbetting.com
Labour are the favourites to win the Makerfield by-election – politicalbetting.com
EXCLUSIVE Sir Keir Starmer will not seek to block Andy Burnham from becoming the Labour candidate in Makerfield, the BBC understands.An ally of Keir Starmer said: “Keir is focused on bringing the party together so it can tackle the issues facing working families.”
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However, Golborne is so close as to almost not matter. And the very important thing is he dosen't live across the East Lancs in Newtown-Le-Willows which is the 'posh' bit in the area, so he can't be painted as (much as) a champagne socialist.
I'll also say that if Reform are serious about getting a local candidate, Burnham might win at a canter. The most visible local Reform councillor, (Maureen O Bern) n Wigan is a Happy Shopper version of Pauline Hanson, and if they nominate someone like her, I could easily see it backfire when she opens her mouth.
Wes was seriously hopeless (and I say this as a health professional) and selling all your confidential medical information to Palantir would, in any sensible world, have sent him to the Tower of London.
Meanwhile there was one seriously good news story today:
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/king-meets-jewish-stabbing-victims-in-solidarity-trip-to-golders-green-yck74ix4
What's noteworthy to me is the local PBers here who are close to the area seem to agree Burnham will win this.
This to me is comparable to when Boris replaced May. Farage led in the polls that year, then his party utterly faded away once the PM was changed.
This is even more than that a vote to change the PM - and one where the voters have the chance to replace a loathed London lawyer PM with a local one of their own, who is not utterly soiled.
They will take it with both hands. It won't even be close.
This is box office and I just have an instinctive feeling Burnham will win
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
Any other circumstances for the by-election, I think Reform would walk this. But these circumstances? A chance to kick out Starmer and replace him with a local whom is far more respected than Starmer is?
It won't even be close.
Starmer does seem though to believe Burnham can be brought into his cabinet without joining Streeting in a leadership challenge which might be a bit deluded
It never seems to occur to Keir, or anyone else in Labour, that THEY are the biggest issue facing working families, and that their best service to those whose interests they claim to be serving would be to resign and hand over to people who don't think that working families only include public sector workers and benefit claimants.
It will be interesting to see how Reform campaign. Farage has today said that Reform will throw everything at the seat, and they were similarly bullish at the start of the Gorton and Denton campaign. And then it seemed as though Farage avoided the place when he realised Reform weren't going to win.
OTOH if he didn't have them this afternoon, he's not going to get them now.
I would love it if Reform win, just to see the look on Andy Burnham's face. Love it!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1963_Kinross_and_Western_Perthshire_by-election
This all looks highly orchestrated between the major figures, including Streeting and perhaps even Starmer himself.
Reform are ahead on a generic ballot, I do not think that is controversial.
Starmer must have some Labour loyalists. This should depress the Labour vote at least a bit.
Some Conservative voters might not be too keen on the idea of shifting the government to the left.
Or of reviving the fortunes of the Labour party they wish to replace in government.
There are not that many Lib Dem/Green voters to squeeze.
Which means Andy needs direct Reform>Labour switchers. And the more split the Labour vote is, the more he will need.
So can he win, sure. But it looks more toss-up than sure thing to me, so I popped a few quid on Reform
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alec_Douglas-Home#Prime_Minister_(1963–1964)
If the Labour candidate isn't Burnham then Reform cruise it.
It’s becoming pathological. I do feel the wheels are beginning to come off and he’s somewhat fortunate that there’s been so much attention on the Labour drama .
This also goes for Farage who has now changed his story from the money was for security to now as a reward for Brexit !
Burnham can pitch as the candidate for change now whereas Reform can only pitch as possible change in 2029.
Step 2) Find a Manchester MP to stand down for you to compete in a by election. Check.
Step 3) Be approved as Labour's candidate by the NEC given how weakened Starmer is. Check.
So all that's left is
Step 4) Win by election. I think he will. People like locals and like to be a part of history by electing the next PM. But it could go either way.
Step 5) Win leadership contest. To be honest, after watching the last few days play out I wouldn't be surprised if Burnham was uncontested other than Starmer. Miliband won't go against Burnham. Streeting may not have the numbers. Raynor could but may want a united soft left. In any case, it'll be a walk in the park after a successful Step 4.
So the question of our next PM all comes down to the will of the people of Makerfield!
A mayoral contest is politics on easy mode compared with competing for national leadership, so there's a possibility his currently elevated image won't survive the scrutiny of a by-election campaign.
Will the council face down the outrage across Facebook? I hope so.
We do however have to recognise that if he wins he takes power at a very difficult time and any shift to the left in terms of policy will be very controversial (if it happens). The jury is very much out on what he can do, or what he is actually able to achieve with the constituency of voters he needs. This could be the best thing that has happened to the Labour Party for years, but it could also be an unmitigated disaster.
I’d argue that Andy Burnham absolutely is a carpetbagger.
Born in Aintree and grew up in Newton-le-Willows, yet in 2001 he was parachuted into the safe Labour seat of Leigh despite having little obvious connection to it. He then built much of his political identity around campaigning for justice for the Hillsborough families and his Merseyside roots, while simultaneously presenting himself as “Mr Manchester” when it suited his ambitions.
After losing two Labour leadership contests, he left Westminster altogether to become Mayor of Greater Manchester rather than remaining an MP or pursuing a political future on Merseyside. Since then, his name has repeatedly surfaced in connection with seats like Gorton and Denton, and now Makerfield.
Perhaps I get too bogged down in a literal reading of the English language, but the last time I checked, moving from constituency to constituency wherever the political opportunity arises is pretty much the definition of political carpetbagging.
cf. Boris Johnson, Peter Mandelson, Nigel Farage.
Nigel Farage now says £5m from crypto billionaire was ‘reward’ for Brexit push
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/14/nigel-farage-5m-gift-crypto-billionaire-brexit-reward
A bunch of Reform-loathing centrist Dads all convincing each other Andy Burnham will win and win it big, “it won’t even be close”
On the basis that these people are always always wrong about Reform and always always under-estimate Reform I’m saying it will likely be very close. I have the odds at exactly evens
But in this constituency? The significant share of the vote will be that which wants rid of Starmer, not that which wants to rub Burnham's face in it.
There was turnout at the GE of 52% and in the Locals high 30s%.
If Burnham can GOTV then he may not need switchers.
Zack Polanski has admitted he didn’t vote in last week’s local elections - despite claims he had voted by post...
But following questions about the surprising move, he admitted to the Times that he had not registered to vote in the elections because he feared for his safety.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/zack-polanski-admits-not-voting-in-local-elections-despite-telling-candidate-youve-got-my-vote/ar-AA23cB6Y
I’m sure Reform will attack him on this.
I have said repeatedly that under any other circumstances I'd expect Reform to walk it.
This is sui generis though. A chance to replace the utterly loathed Starmer, with a far more respected/far less loathed local.
Reform aren't even the story.
Following on from Hannah Spencer isn't a real plumber last time.
So doesn't fit Burnham, who is a local by both birth and choice.
An ally of Andy Burnham says he is intentionally going for a Reform-facing seat to show he can win and beat them in a general election
https://x.com/harriet_symonds/status/2054981592209137889
A Labour source texts: ‘That might be believable if he hadn’t already asked 26 other MPs first’
Robert Jenrick’s wife warned about £40k donation from US fraudster
Detectives are assessing claims the MP, now a Reform UK member, accepted a foreign donation in his campaign to become the Tory leader
Robert Jenrick’s wife, Michal Berkner, was warned that her husband’s campaign accepted an impermissible donation of almost £40,000 from a convicted American fraudster that is at the centre of a police investigation.
Detectives are assessing claims that Jenrick accepted a foreign donation for his campaign to become Tory leader in 2024. It comes after an inquiry by the elections watchdog.
Jenrick, who is Reform UK’s Treasury spokesman, has repeatedly said he believed the money had been given to him by Phillip Ullmann, a British businessman, whose company Spott Fitness was declared as the source of the funding.
Emails seen by The Times showed that Berkner, who was acting as a lawyer for Ullmann’s company, was warned six months after the donation was made that he was not the original source of all the money.
Instead, she was told that Ullmann had solicited the money from Gary Klopfenstein, an American businessman who is awaiting sentence for fraud in the United States.
However, Berkner, who is a practising solicitor, would have been under a professional obligation not to share that information with her husband as it would have been covered by client confidentiality. She is understood to have stopped working for Ullman shortly afterwards and there is no suggestion of impropriety on her part.
In an email to Berkner, a lawyer representing one of Klopfenstein’s former companies, provided evidence that Ullmann had asked for the money to support Jenrick’s campaign.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/robert-jenrick-wife-donation-us-fraudster-dnpq7w77v
Burnham is standing to get rid of Starmer . Of course he has to be a bit careful not to alienate voters there who like Starmers , yes I know it might not be that many but still .
As you drink your whisky the walls turn into the colours of different seasons matching the mood of the booze
Clever
*actually about 3 miles away but hey
Very odd attitude.
Heck, they're that close to each other, there's probably takeaways that deliver to customers in both towns.
Culcheth is pretty much a suburb of it.
It's 2 miles away.
Who in their right mind wouldn't?