politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium has the Tories 2% ahead fir the first time since it

First!

I spy a Tory lead right at the start.

Pretty clear from that chart, Tories appear to have picked up support from UKIP and Labour having some votes nicked by uptick in support for Greens....and still no sign that poor Lib Dems are getting any credit for economic good news etc.

Two of the last 18 polls have shown the Tories ahead.

Mr. F, really? Nice for the blues but it's not a huge shift and it's only one poll.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, really? Nice for the blues but it's not a huge shift and it's only one poll.

Sorry, I meant looking at the trend chart, not just this one poll.

Part-ELBOW before Opinium = Lab 1.5% lead
Part-ELBOW inc. Opinium = Lab 1.0% lead

Just YG/Sunday Times left...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pretty clear from that chart, Tories appear to have picked up support from UKIP and Labour having some votes nicked by uptick in support for Greens....and still no sign that poor Lib Dems are getting any credit for economic good news etc.

The Lib Dems are not getting any credit for good economic news because they don't appear to be shouting about it.In fact they do't appear to be shouting about anything -strange behavior as they need to be strongly visible in the air war.

antifrank said:

Nigel Farage's approval ratings are barely better than Ed Miliband's in this poll.

Labour is 18 pts ahead of UKIP though.

Do we have the tables ?

Opinium had the Tories ahead last November in a poll they accidentally published on their website and I had noticed.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/11/18/opinium-poll-that-slipped-out-has-con-ahead-with-the-lds-down-on-5/

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

This must have sparked the tightening in the Conservative price, earlier today.

How many people have these polls before they're out ? 10, 100, 1000 ?

Even if the poll had leaked, it would hardly have justified the tightening of the Tory price we saw today.

It would need three or four such polls to justify such a swing, and you would then expect to see corresponding movements on linked markets, such as Overall Majority and the Spreads.

No, I think it was just a certain amount of exuberance amongst blue backers which just happened to coincide with a decent poll.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

@Pulpstar

Got a leaflet from Wes today!

#IlfordNorth

#Backthebluesexceptinselectedseats

antifrank said:

Nigel Farage's approval ratings are barely better than Ed Miliband's in this poll.

Yet UKIP are despised and Labour are loved

bigjohnowls said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

First Tory lead in Opinium since March 2012

Opinium Research ‏@OpiniumResearch · 1m1 minute ago
Opinium/Observer: First #Tory lead since Mar'12 - Con 35%(+2), Lab 33%(-2), Lib Dems 6%(-2),UKIP 15%(+1),Green 7%(+1) http://tinyurl.com/k387tzy

Apart from the November 2014 one!

That wasn't in the Observer! (no sign of it remains on the Opinium website...)

isam said:

antifrank said:

Nigel Farage's approval ratings are barely better than Ed Miliband's in this poll.

Yet UKIP are despised and Labour are loved

If this poll is to be believed, Nigel Farage is loved by his party supporters, which Ed Miliband is not.

If only Labour had a halfway respected leader.........

Perhaps on these numbers Cameron could hang on for a bit. Presumably if he did Labour would defenestrate Ed and get a more electable leader - Burnham? - to replace him before we had a second election with Farron likely leading the Lib Dems. I still think it looks difficult for Dave in the medium term.

Yeah looking at the sub samples.

Scotland

SNP 31, Con 28, Lab 25.

Okay.

antifrank said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

Nigel Farage's approval ratings are barely better than Ed Miliband's in this poll.

Yet UKIP are despised and Labour are loved

If this poll is to be believed, Nigel Farage is loved by his party supporters, which Ed Miliband is not.

Miliband's inability to inspire remains one of the Conservatives best cards.

john_zims said:

Has the data been published for the Survation private poll for the Lib Dems showing them 'competitive' in Solihull,Wells et al ?

Out next week.

HYUFD said:

According to UK polling report totals of Tory 35%, Labour 33% and LD 6% would give Tory 300, Labour 311 and LD 11. Given Labour are likely to lose at least 20 seats to the SNP on present polling Labour would probably end up on 291, which would give the Tories a lead of 9, thus becoming the largest party by a small margin. However, a Tory LD deal would not have the numbers, whereas if the SNP won 35 seats that would give Labour + SNP 326, a majority of 1! So, Ed PM on a minority vote and seat total and reliant on the SNP to get a 1 seat majority - in essence, chaos! (If the LDs do a bit better in their seats as OGH suggests then another Tory LD deal may be possible)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator

If the LDs do a bit better in their seats as OGH suggests then another Tory LD deal may be possible

Those "deep gains" are almost all Lib Dem-Con marginals so actually it doesn't matter for the arithmetic.

And the Lib Dems just on 1% in Scotland.

Looking at it, if it has been normal North Britain sub sample the Tories would still be ahead by probably 1%.

But that's a very rough calculation.

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yeah looking at the sub samples.

Scotland

SNP 31, Con 28, Lab 25.

Okay.

Jacob Rees-Mogg MP for Glasgow East

Con gain Banff & Buchan and Western Isles

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yeah looking at the sub samples.

Scotland

SNP 31, Con 28, Lab 25.

Okay.

Jacob Rees-Mogg MP for Glasgow East

Con gain Banff & Buchan and Western Isles

I don't advocate animal cruelty... but those Edinburgh pandas...

HYUFD said:

According to UK polling report totals of Tory 35%, Labour 33% and LD 6% would give Tory 300, Labour 311 and LD 11. Given Labour are likely to lose at least 20 seats to the SNP on present polling Labour would probably end up on 291, which would give the Tories a lead of 9, thus becoming the largest party by a small margin. However, a Tory LD deal would not have the numbers, whereas if the SNP won 35 seats that would give Labour + SNP 326, a majority of 1! So, Ed PM on a minority vote and seat total and reliant on the SNP to get a 1 seat majority - in essence, chaos! (If the LDs do a bit better in their seats as OGH suggests then another Tory LD deal may be possible)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator

I think you have hit the nail on the head in the first part of your post as to why EICIPM is overpriced on Betfair compared to Lab most seats which itself is overpriced!!
I agree with your second part of the post but UNS doesnt work as underestimates Scotland but equally sugests Tories wii get as big a swing vs LD as Lab vs LD IMO they wont so i dont think your final part of your post is likely

Perhaps that's why Betfair most seats moved so much earlier?

Good to see OGH last tweet for consistency...

Blimey - Ed’s net rating amongst his own supporters leaves a lot to be desired.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

And the Lib Dems just on 1% in Scotland.

Looking at it, if it has been normal North Britain sub sample the Tories would still be ahead by probably 1%.

But that's a very rough calculation.

Yep looks like a bit of a Scottish outlier, obviosuly the MoE is going to be enourmous - but the England and Wales figures are still relevant.

Never read anything into subsamples, only how they could effect the sample overall

On these numbers, the Conservatives would lose 52 English seats to Labour, but gain 9 Scottish seats from them. They'd gain 20 English Lib Dem seats, and 7 in Scotland.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

This must have sparked the tightening in the Conservative price, earlier today.

How many people have these polls before they're out ? 10, 100, 1000 ?

Even if the poll had leaked, it would hardly have justified the tightening of the Tory price we saw today.

It would need three or four such polls to justify such a swing, and you would then expect to see corresponding movements on linked markets, such as Overall Majority and the Spreads.

No, I think it was just a certain amount of exuberance amongst blue backers which just happened to coincide with a decent poll.

Two Tory leads in the 18 last polls have come after 14th February.

* In the 9 polls from 15th February onwards, average labour lead is below 1% (0.777%)

* In the 9 polls from 8th to 14th Feb, the average Labour lead was nearly 2% (1.777%)


Also I think OGH has made an Error. Tories are ahead in three polls out of last 18:

* Tonights Observer
* Yougov/Sun 9th Feb
* ICM/Guardian 15th Feb

YG on the 9th is the 19th last poll!

Not according to Polling Report.

They have 10 for eleven weeks to go http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9262
Plus tonights.

So seven from 12 weeks to go http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9245

So its the Ashcroft one with the Tory lead that is 19th.

No.

Why aren't you using the list on Wikipedia which I among others update almost daily?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Because the wikipedia list contains the poll by TNS for the BBC that shouldn't be there, whilst Mr Wells wisely doesn't have it on his list.

Heseltine on QT would have helped Con over the last few days.

OK, the audience is only just under 3 million but he is in a completely different league to all the lightweight performers of today.

After Cameron, Con's best bet is to get Major and Heseltine on the TV as much as possible.

Greetings from the canary islandsc windy but no snow as there was in the uk this am. This poll is more good news for Dave its going in the
right direction

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pulpstar said:

Sean_F said:

This must have sparked the tightening in the Conservative price, earlier today.

How many people have these polls before they're out ? 10, 100, 1000 ?

Even if the poll had leaked, it would hardly have justified the tightening of the Tory price we saw today.

It would need three or four such polls to justify such a swing, and you would then expect to see corresponding movements on linked markets, such as Overall Majority and the Spreads.

No, I think it was just a certain amount of exuberance amongst blue backers which just happened to coincide with a decent poll.

Two Tory leads in the 18 last polls have come after 14th February.

* In the 9 polls from 15th February onwards, average labour lead is below 1% (0.777%)

* In the 9 polls from 8th to 14th Feb, the average Labour lead was nearly 2% (1.777%)


Also I think OGH has made an Error. Tories are ahead in three polls out of last 18:

* Tonights Observer
* Yougov/Sun 9th Feb
* ICM/Guardian 15th Feb

YG on the 9th is the 19th last poll!

Not according to Polling Report.

They have 10 for eleven weeks to go http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9262
Plus tonights.

So seven from 12 weeks to go http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9245

So its the Ashcroft one with the Tory lead that is 19th.

No.

Why aren't you using the list on Wikipedia which I among others update almost daily?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Because the wikipedia list contains the poll by TNS for the BBC that shouldn't be there, whilst Mr Wells wisely doesn't have it on his list.

That was well before "the last 18 polls" that Paul is querying.

The electorate's fear about @TheGreenParty's economics in a nutshell

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-Y_vsAIEAAR19e.jpg

Labour to give John Prescott a frontline general election role

Ed Miliband brings back former deputy prime minister to ‘bash heads together’ as Conservatives edge ahead in polls

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/21/labour-john-prescott-election-miliband-conservatives?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Easterross said:

Evening all and a very disingenuous headline that only 2 out of 18 polls have had Tory leads. Neither Opinium nor ICM produce polls like diahorrea the way YouGov does. One thing is for sure we now know TNS is just garbage and should be ignored. 3 consecutive months with 7% Labour leads.

A poll is a poll. Each YouGov is unique - they aren't clones.
And TNS should be ignored because they don't give the results you want?

"These aren't the polls leads you're looking for!"

Sunil_Prasannan said:

@TSE

Last 18 polls inc. Opinium:

17–20 Feb	Opinium/The Observer
18–19 Feb	Populus
18–19 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
17–18 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
16–17 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
15–16 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
12–16 Feb	TNS
13–15 Feb	Lord Ashcroft
13–15 Feb	Populus
13–15 Feb	ICM/The Guardian
12–13 Feb	YouGov/Sunday Times
11–12 Feb	ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday
11–12 Feb	Populus
11–12 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
10–12 Feb	Opinium/The Observer
10–11 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
9–10 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
8–10 Feb	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard

A yellow box!

HYUFD said:

Fascinating regional breakdown on EU poll from p56 of the Opinium tables England Stay 49% Leave 51% Wales Stay 44% Leave 58% Scotland Stay 50% Leave 50%

So more Welsh want to leave than English and the Scots are split down the middle!
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_17_02_2015_final_tables.pdf

I would take the Scottish (and Welsh) figures in Opinium with a bucket-load of salt. Since they changed their methodology earlier this month, the SNP have been massively down-weighted each time. Their polls since then have shown weird Scottish sub-sample scores.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The electorate's fear about @TheGreenParty's economics in a nutshell

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-Y_vsAIEAAR19e.jpg

Amusing indeed, and probably fair too with the Greens, although the worry must surely be that as they will never get a chance to implement their economic ideas, would it really dissuade someone considering voting for them as a protest only?

Easterross said:

Evening all and a very disingenuous headline that only 2 out of 18 polls have had Tory leads. Neither Opinium nor ICM produce polls like diahorrea the way YouGov does. .

I bet if YouGov had been showing consistent Tory leads in that period and the statement was '10 of the last 18 polls have Tory leads' there would not be a problem with including the incessant YouGovs.

SimonStClare said:

Blimey - Ed’s net rating amongst his own supporters leaves a lot to be desired.

Indeed. I get her's not great, but it's amazing he is apparently not regarded well by enough of his own party that they are underrating their own chances as a result.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour to give John Prescott a frontline general election role

Ed Miliband brings back former deputy prime minister to ‘bash heads together’ as Conservatives edge ahead in polls

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/21/labour-john-prescott-election-miliband-conservatives?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

bring on the clowns.

JamesMo Maybe, but in the euro elections UKIP got 27.5% in Wales and only 10.4% in Scotland so the results are probably not that far off!

chestnut said:

Ashcroft 34% (9/2/15)
ICM 'outlier' 36%
Ipsos 34% (35% on 8/10 or 9/10 intent to vote)
Opinium 35%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojmH97FntME

YouGov polls were showing the opposite at the end of last year, better polls for the Tories and narrower Labour leads than other pollsters. It won't be a problem closer to the election where we'll get a multitude of polls from different polling companies.

Hengists_Gift said:

PS Isn't Opinium's presentation of the detailed data dreadful?

Yes!

Hengists_Gift said:

I haven't looked at the detail of an Opinium poll before. Is it always the case that the Tories receive a significant uplift from Opinium through the weightings?

I think Opinium (and others) rejigged their weighting in January.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9244

MaxPB said:

Maybe, just maybe that ICM wasn't an outlier.

comments like that will be stamped on. ; )

perdix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour to give John Prescott a frontline general election role

Ed Miliband brings back former deputy prime minister to ‘bash heads together’ as Conservatives edge ahead in polls

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/21/labour-john-prescott-election-miliband-conservatives?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

And to punch a few constituents?

At the last GE, he was such a turn off there wasn't even enough people for him to punch. There was that great picture where he was giving it the big John shouty Tory baby eater speech and one women in a shop-mobility potters past and that is it.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ttmMQSF70OA/S8xEf-e5qfI/AAAAAAAAAsA/ESUUBoNM0vM/s1600/Prescott.JPG

Aargh ........ I see Mike yet again, for the umpteenth time, quotes his 11.4% statistic within this threader head!
The truth is that Opinium's key finding is that the difference in the VI between the two major parties (let's not foolishly refer to the LibDems as such any longer) has narrowed by 4% in the Tories' favour since their previous poll. This is potentially hugely significant in terms of the number of seats it would move as Mike is only too well aware.
Indeed I very much doubt he would have written this morning's thread, at least in such damning terms from the Blues' perspective had he been aware of the numbers in Opinium's poll set to be released just a few hours later - for it largely answers his expressed puzzlement as regards why such diverse expert opinions held by the likes of Stephen Fisher, Peter Kellner, Matthew Shaddick, Rod Crosby, etc all continue to hold a relatively bullish view of the Tories' GE seats prospects.
We have now seen significant shifts of opinion in favour of the Tories having been reported by ICM and now by Opinium. Were these to be replicated by say another couple of respected pollsters (as opposed to the Mickey Mouse variety) over the next couple of weeks or so, then this would more than justify the current betting market odds, irrespective of Mike's 11.4% mantra, whether he likes it or not!