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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium has the Tories 2% ahead fir the first time since it

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited February 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium has the Tories 2% ahead fir the first time since it started it Observer series

Trend chart from Opinium which has just recorded its first ever CON lead in its Observer polling series pic.twitter.com/o4q9cS3RlB

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    First!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015
    Squirrel down, I repeat squirrel down....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    I spy a Tory lead right at the start.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550
    FPT

    I note that one of the old liberal MPs has recently died. Lord Mackie of Benshie became Liberal MP for Caithness and Sutherland in 1964, but was beaten by Robert Maclennan in 1966. He lived to a ripe old age of 95.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015
    Pretty clear from that chart, Tories appear to have picked up support from UKIP and Labour having some votes nicked by uptick in support for Greens....and still no sign that poor Lib Dems are getting any credit for economic good news etc.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    This must have sparked the tightening in the Conservative price, earlier today.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    Two of the last 18 polls have shown the Tories ahead.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Sean_F said:

    This must have sparked the tightening in the Conservative price, earlier today.

    How many people have these polls before they're out ? 10, 100, 1000 ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. F, really? Nice for the blues but it's not a huge shift and it's only one poll.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Double crossover, with the Greens overtaking the Lib Dems.

    It's most noteworthy for it being the first time the Tories have led for three years with this pollster. But it is still just one poll.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. F, really? Nice for the blues but it's not a huge shift and it's only one poll.

    Sorry, I meant looking at the trend chart, not just this one poll.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited February 2015
    FPT
    MikeSmithson said:

    Tories take 2% lead with Opinium

    St Valentines Day swingback massacre effect.

    I contended months ago that only on St Valentines day or thereabouts would the elecorate start to notice an election was imminent due to the fixed term parliament removing the "will he go to the Queen next week" element of speculation. Therefore until st valentine's day the electorate would use opinion polls to kick the government. Only after Feb 14th would they look closely at who the next PM would be, take one look at Millipede and say 'not you mate'.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    edited February 2015
    Part-ELBOW before Opinium = Lab 1.5% lead
    Part-ELBOW inc. Opinium = Lab 1.0% lead

    Just YG/Sunday Times left...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigel Farage's approval ratings are barely better than Ed Miliband's in this poll.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pretty clear from that chart, Tories appear to have picked up support from UKIP and Labour having some votes nicked by uptick in support for Greens....and still no sign that poor Lib Dems are getting any credit for economic good news etc.

    The Lib Dems are not getting any credit for good economic news because they don't appear to be shouting about it.In fact they do't appear to be shouting about anything -strange behavior as they need to be strongly visible in the air war.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    First Tory lead in Opinium since March 2012

    Opinium Research ‏@OpiniumResearch · 1m1 minute ago
    Opinium/Observer: First #Tory lead since Mar'12 - Con 35%(+2), Lab 33%(-2), Lib Dems 6%(-2),UKIP 15%(+1),Green 7%(+1) http://tinyurl.com/k387tzy


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    antifrank said:

    Nigel Farage's approval ratings are barely better than Ed Miliband's in this poll.

    Labour is 18 pts ahead of UKIP though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Con Gain Twickers !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Do we have the tables ?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    OGH "All told a reassuring poll for the Tories from Opinium but on these figures LAB, even with Scotland problems, likely to have most seats."

    Peter Kellner wrote in an article that if the Cons were ahead they would have most seats.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015
    Opinium had the Tories ahead last November in a poll they accidentally published on their website and I had noticed.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/11/18/opinium-poll-that-slipped-out-has-con-ahead-with-the-lds-down-on-5/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    @Pulpstar

    Got a leaflet from Wes today!

    #IlfordNorth
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    This must have sparked the tightening in the Conservative price, earlier today.

    How many people have these polls before they're out ? 10, 100, 1000 ?
    Even if the poll had leaked, it would hardly have justified the tightening of the Tory price we saw today.

    It would need three or four such polls to justify such a swing, and you would then expect to see corresponding movements on linked markets, such as Overall Majority and the Spreads.

    No, I think it was just a certain amount of exuberance amongst blue backers which just happened to coincide with a decent poll.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    Any other polls expected this evening?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    @Pulpstar

    Got a leaflet from Wes today!

    #IlfordNorth

    #Backthebluesexceptinselectedseats
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First Tory lead in Opinium since March 2012

    Opinium Research ‏@OpiniumResearch · 1m1 minute ago
    Opinium/Observer: First #Tory lead since Mar'12 - Con 35%(+2), Lab 33%(-2), Lib Dems 6%(-2),UKIP 15%(+1),Green 7%(+1) http://tinyurl.com/k387tzy


    Apart from the November 2014 one!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    Nigel Farage's approval ratings are barely better than Ed Miliband's in this poll.


    Yet UKIP are despised and Labour are loved
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    This must have sparked the tightening in the Conservative price, earlier today.

    How many people have these polls before they're out ? 10, 100, 1000 ?
    Even if the poll had leaked, it would hardly have justified the tightening of the Tory price we saw today.

    It would need three or four such polls to justify such a swing, and you would then expect to see corresponding movements on linked markets, such as Overall Majority and the Spreads.

    No, I think it was just a certain amount of exuberance amongst blue backers which just happened to coincide with a decent poll.
    The score of tonight's YouGov will have been known since around 6pm Friday.

    Although YouGov generally have the strongest embargo policy out there.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    bigjohnowls said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First Tory lead in Opinium since March 2012

    Opinium Research ‏@OpiniumResearch · 1m1 minute ago
    Opinium/Observer: First #Tory lead since Mar'12 - Con 35%(+2), Lab 33%(-2), Lib Dems 6%(-2),UKIP 15%(+1),Green 7%(+1) http://tinyurl.com/k387tzy


    Apart from the November 2014 one!
    That wasn't in the Observer! (no sign of it remains on the Opinium website...)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    rogerh said:

    Any other polls expected this evening?

    YouGov/Sunday Times expected overnight.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Nigel Farage's approval ratings are barely better than Ed Miliband's in this poll.


    Yet UKIP are despised and Labour are loved
    If this poll is to be believed, Nigel Farage is loved by his party supporters, which Ed Miliband is not.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    Has the data been published for the Survation private poll for the Lib Dems showing them 'competitive' in Solihull,Wells et al ?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    If only Labour had a halfway respected leader.........

    Perhaps on these numbers Cameron could hang on for a bit. Presumably if he did Labour would defenestrate Ed and get a more electable leader - Burnham? - to replace him before we had a second election with Farron likely leading the Lib Dems. I still think it looks difficult for Dave in the medium term.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,896
    edited February 2015
    According to UK polling report totals of Tory 35%, Labour 33% and LD 6% would give Tory 300, Labour 311 and LD 11. Given Labour are likely to lose at least 20 seats to the SNP on present polling Labour would probably end up on 291, which would give the Tories a lead of 9, thus becoming the largest party by a small margin. However, a Tory LD deal would not have the numbers, whereas if the SNP won 35 seats that would give Labour + SNP 326, a majority of 1! So, Ed PM on a minority vote and seat total and reliant on the SNP to get a 1 seat majority - in essence, chaos! (If the LDs do a bit better in their seats as OGH suggests then another Tory LD deal may be possible)
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Yeah looking at the sub samples.

    Scotland

    SNP 31, Con 28, Lab 25.

    Okay.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    These splits are all very well but I want to have a look at the Scottish subsample too :)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    Nigel Farage's approval ratings are barely better than Ed Miliband's in this poll.


    Yet UKIP are despised and Labour are loved
    If this poll is to be believed, Nigel Farage is loved by his party supporters, which Ed Miliband is not.
    Miliband's inability to inspire remains one of the Conservatives best cards.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    rogerh said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pretty clear from that chart, Tories appear to have picked up support from UKIP and Labour having some votes nicked by uptick in support for Greens....and still no sign that poor Lib Dems are getting any credit for economic good news etc.

    The Lib Dems are not getting any credit for good economic news because they don't appear to be shouting about it.In fact they do't appear to be shouting about anything -strange behavior as they need to be strongly visible in the air war.

    i've saying/asking this for ages. WHEN are the LD's going to come out and shout about what they've done?
    Saying they've stopped Tories baby-eating isn't enough.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    john_zims said:

    Has the data been published for the Survation private poll for the Lib Dems showing them 'competitive' in Solihull,Wells et al ?

    Out next week.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yeah looking at the sub samples.

    Scotland

    SNP 31, Con 28, Lab 25.

    Okay.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg MP for Glasgow East
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    HYUFD said:

    According to UK polling report totals of Tory 35%, Labour 33% and LD 6% would give Tory 300, Labour 311 and LD 11. Given Labour are likely to lose at least 20 seats to the SNP on present polling Labour would probably end up on 291, which would give the Tories a lead of 9, thus becoming the largest party by a small margin. However, a Tory LD deal would not have the numbers, whereas if the SNP won 35 seats that would give Labour + SNP 326, a majority of 1! So, Ed PM on a minority vote and seat total and reliant on the SNP to get a 1 seat majority - in essence, chaos! (If the LDs do a bit better in their seats as OGH suggests then another Tory LD deal may be possible)
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator

    If the LDs do a bit better in their seats as OGH suggests then another Tory LD deal may be possible

    Those "deep gains" are almost all Lib Dem-Con marginals so actually it doesn't matter for the arithmetic.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Booth, Burnham's a lightweight who appears constantly on the verge of tears. Cooper would perhaps be the best realistic bet, if Johnson doesn't want it [he screwed up the GP contract negotiation and wasn't stellar as Shadow Chancellor, but he is normal and likeable].

    Umunna would be worse than Miliband.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    This must have sparked the tightening in the Conservative price, earlier today.

    How many people have these polls before they're out ? 10, 100, 1000 ?
    Even if the poll had leaked, it would hardly have justified the tightening of the Tory price we saw today.

    It would need three or four such polls to justify such a swing, and you would then expect to see corresponding movements on linked markets, such as Overall Majority and the Spreads.

    No, I think it was just a certain amount of exuberance amongst blue backers which just happened to coincide with a decent poll.
    Two Tory leads in the 18 last polls have come after 14th February.

    * In the 9 polls from 15th February onwards, average labour lead is below 1% (0.777%)

    * In the 9 polls from 8th to 14th Feb, the average Labour lead was nearly 2% (1.777%)


    Also I think OGH has made an Error. Tories are ahead in three polls out of last 18:

    * Tonights Observer
    * Yougov/Sun 9th Feb
    * ICM/Guardian 15th Feb



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    john_zims said:

    Has the data been published for the Survation private poll for the Lib Dems showing them 'competitive' in Solihull,Wells et al ?

    Wells was never mentioned.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    And the Lib Dems just on 1% in Scotland.

    Looking at it, if it has been normal North Britain sub sample the Tories would still be ahead by probably 1%.

    But that's a very rough calculation.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    This must have sparked the tightening in the Conservative price, earlier today.

    How many people have these polls before they're out ? 10, 100, 1000 ?
    Even if the poll had leaked, it would hardly have justified the tightening of the Tory price we saw today.

    It would need three or four such polls to justify such a swing, and you would then expect to see corresponding movements on linked markets, such as Overall Majority and the Spreads.

    No, I think it was just a certain amount of exuberance amongst blue backers which just happened to coincide with a decent poll.
    Two Tory leads in the 18 last polls have come after 14th February.

    * In the 9 polls from 15th February onwards, average labour lead is below 1% (0.777%)

    * In the 9 polls from 8th to 14th Feb, the average Labour lead was nearly 2% (1.777%)


    Also I think OGH has made an Error. Tories are ahead in three polls out of last 18:

    * Tonights Observer
    * Yougov/Sun 9th Feb
    * ICM/Guardian 15th Feb



    YG on the 9th is the 19th last poll!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yeah looking at the sub samples.

    Scotland

    SNP 31, Con 28, Lab 25.

    Okay.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg MP for Glasgow East
    Con gain Banff & Buchan and Western Isles
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Wow, Man City on fire, Newcastle heading for their worst defeat ever if this keeps up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yeah looking at the sub samples.

    Scotland

    SNP 31, Con 28, Lab 25.

    Okay.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg MP for Glasgow East
    Con gain Banff & Buchan and Western Isles
    I don't advocate animal cruelty... but those Edinburgh pandas...
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    This must have sparked the tightening in the Conservative price, earlier today.

    How many people have these polls before they're out ? 10, 100, 1000 ?
    Even if the poll had leaked, it would hardly have justified the tightening of the Tory price we saw today.

    It would need three or four such polls to justify such a swing, and you would then expect to see corresponding movements on linked markets, such as Overall Majority and the Spreads.

    No, I think it was just a certain amount of exuberance amongst blue backers which just happened to coincide with a decent poll.
    Two Tory leads in the 18 last polls have come after 14th February.

    * In the 9 polls from 15th February onwards, average labour lead is below 1% (0.777%)

    * In the 9 polls from 8th to 14th Feb, the average Labour lead was nearly 2% (1.777%)


    Also I think OGH has made an Error. Tories are ahead in three polls out of last 18:

    * Tonights Observer
    * Yougov/Sun 9th Feb
    * ICM/Guardian 15th Feb



    YG on the 9th is the 19th last poll!
    Not according to Polling Report.

    They have 10 for eleven weeks to go http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9262
    Plus tonights.

    So seven from 12 weeks to go http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9245

    So its the Ashcroft one with the Tory lead that is 19th.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    edited February 2015
    HYUFD said:

    According to UK polling report totals of Tory 35%, Labour 33% and LD 6% would give Tory 300, Labour 311 and LD 11. Given Labour are likely to lose at least 20 seats to the SNP on present polling Labour would probably end up on 291, which would give the Tories a lead of 9, thus becoming the largest party by a small margin. However, a Tory LD deal would not have the numbers, whereas if the SNP won 35 seats that would give Labour + SNP 326, a majority of 1! So, Ed PM on a minority vote and seat total and reliant on the SNP to get a 1 seat majority - in essence, chaos! (If the LDs do a bit better in their seats as OGH suggests then another Tory LD deal may be possible)
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator

    I think you have hit the nail on the head in the first part of your post as to why EICIPM is overpriced on Betfair compared to Lab most seats which itself is overpriced!!
    I agree with your second part of the post but UNS doesnt work as underestimates Scotland but equally sugests Tories wii get as big a swing vs LD as Lab vs LD IMO they wont so i dont think your final part of your post is likely
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    And the Lib Dems just on 1% in Scotland.

    Looking at it, if it has been normal North Britain sub sample the Tories would still be ahead by probably 1%.

    But that's a very rough calculation.

    Yep looks like a bit of a Scottish outlier, obviosuly the MoE is going to be enourmous - but the England and Wales figures are still relevant.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Perhaps that's why Betfair most seats moved so much earlier?

    Good to see OGH last tweet for consistency...
  • Greenwich_FloaterGreenwich_Floater Posts: 389
    Might just be a sampling thing but if Opinium have the Tories ahead then it could be an interesting period coming up with polls.

    I can't help but think the last 4 weeks of the campaign will be positive for blue at the expense of red and purples.

    When it comes down to it, a lot of floaters will eventually settle on not risking the current relatively benign economic situation against a vaguely ideological desire that Labour offer on fairness in society. Labour's shamelessly populist policies may also count against them at some point. Voters aren't stupid (the floaters aren't anyway).
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Blimey - Ed’s net rating amongst his own supporters leaves a lot to be desired.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,896
    Pulpstar Indeed, it would rely on the LDs holding a few seats from Labour too, including Hallam!

    BigjohnOwls Indeed, but Scotland is the key!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    And the Lib Dems just on 1% in Scotland.

    Looking at it, if it has been normal North Britain sub sample the Tories would still be ahead by probably 1%.

    But that's a very rough calculation.

    Yep looks like a bit of a Scottish outlier, obviosuly the MoE is going to be enourmous - but the England and Wales figures are still relevant.
    Never read anything into subsamples, only how they could effect the sample overall
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    This must have sparked the tightening in the Conservative price, earlier today.

    How many people have these polls before they're out ? 10, 100, 1000 ?
    Even if the poll had leaked, it would hardly have justified the tightening of the Tory price we saw today.

    It would need three or four such polls to justify such a swing, and you would then expect to see corresponding movements on linked markets, such as Overall Majority and the Spreads.

    No, I think it was just a certain amount of exuberance amongst blue backers which just happened to coincide with a decent poll.
    Two Tory leads in the 18 last polls have come after 14th February.

    * In the 9 polls from 15th February onwards, average labour lead is below 1% (0.777%)

    * In the 9 polls from 8th to 14th Feb, the average Labour lead was nearly 2% (1.777%)


    Also I think OGH has made an Error. Tories are ahead in three polls out of last 18:

    * Tonights Observer
    * Yougov/Sun 9th Feb
    * ICM/Guardian 15th Feb



    YG on the 9th is the 19th last poll!
    Not according to Polling Report.

    They have 10 for eleven weeks to go http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9262
    Plus tonights.

    So seven from 12 weeks to go http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9245

    So its the Ashcroft one with the Tory lead that is 19th.
    No.

    Why aren't you using the list on Wikipedia which I among others update almost daily?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    On these numbers, the Conservatives would lose 52 English seats to Labour, but gain 9 Scottish seats from them. They'd gain 20 English Lib Dem seats, and 7 in Scotland.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    @Paul_Mid_Beds

    Last 18 polls inc. Opinium: 
    17–20 Feb	Opinium/The Observer
    18–19 Feb	Populus
    18–19 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    17–18 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    16–17 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    15–16 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    12–16 Feb	TNS
    13–15 Feb	Lord Ashcroft
    13–15 Feb	Populus
    13–15 Feb	ICM/The Guardian
    12–13 Feb	YouGov/Sunday Times
    11–12 Feb	ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday
    11–12 Feb	Populus
    11–12 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
    10–12 Feb	Opinium/The Observer
    10–11 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
    9–10 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
    8–10 Feb	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    This must have sparked the tightening in the Conservative price, earlier today.

    How many people have these polls before they're out ? 10, 100, 1000 ?
    Even if the poll had leaked, it would hardly have justified the tightening of the Tory price we saw today.

    It would need three or four such polls to justify such a swing, and you would then expect to see corresponding movements on linked markets, such as Overall Majority and the Spreads.

    No, I think it was just a certain amount of exuberance amongst blue backers which just happened to coincide with a decent poll.
    Two Tory leads in the 18 last polls have come after 14th February.

    * In the 9 polls from 15th February onwards, average labour lead is below 1% (0.777%)

    * In the 9 polls from 8th to 14th Feb, the average Labour lead was nearly 2% (1.777%)


    Also I think OGH has made an Error. Tories are ahead in three polls out of last 18:

    * Tonights Observer
    * Yougov/Sun 9th Feb
    * ICM/Guardian 15th Feb



    YG on the 9th is the 19th last poll!
    Not according to Polling Report.

    They have 10 for eleven weeks to go http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9262
    Plus tonights.

    So seven from 12 weeks to go http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9245

    So its the Ashcroft one with the Tory lead that is 19th.
    No.

    Why aren't you using the list on Wikipedia which I among others update almost daily?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Because the wikipedia list contains the poll by TNS for the BBC that shouldn't be there, whilst Mr Wells wisely doesn't have it on his list.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    And the Lib Dems just on 1% in Scotland.

    Looking at it, if it has been normal North Britain sub sample the Tories would still be ahead by probably 1%.

    But that's a very rough calculation.

    Yep looks like a bit of a Scottish outlier, obviosuly the MoE is going to be enourmous - but the England and Wales figures are still relevant.
    Never read anything into subsamples, only how they could effect the sample overall
    Ahem... AFFECT!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Heseltine on QT would have helped Con over the last few days.

    OK, the audience is only just under 3 million but he is in a completely different league to all the lightweight performers of today.

    After Cameron, Con's best bet is to get Major and Heseltine on the TV as much as possible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,896
    edited February 2015
    Fascinating regional breakdown on EU poll from p56 of the Opinium tables England Stay 49% Leave 51% Wales Stay 44% Leave 58% Scotland Stay 50% Leave 50%

    So more Welsh want to leave than English and the Scots are split down the middle!
    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_17_02_2015_final_tables.pdf
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Greetings from the canary islandsc windy but no snow as there was in the uk this am. This poll is more good news for Dave its going in the
    right direction
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lab most seats - no really my sides. Cam level on leader ratings..
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    This must have sparked the tightening in the Conservative price, earlier today.

    How many people have these polls before they're out ? 10, 100, 1000 ?
    Even if the poll had leaked, it would hardly have justified the tightening of the Tory price we saw today.

    It would need three or four such polls to justify such a swing, and you would then expect to see corresponding movements on linked markets, such as Overall Majority and the Spreads.

    No, I think it was just a certain amount of exuberance amongst blue backers which just happened to coincide with a decent poll.
    Two Tory leads in the 18 last polls have come after 14th February.

    * In the 9 polls from 15th February onwards, average labour lead is below 1% (0.777%)

    * In the 9 polls from 8th to 14th Feb, the average Labour lead was nearly 2% (1.777%)


    Also I think OGH has made an Error. Tories are ahead in three polls out of last 18:

    * Tonights Observer
    * Yougov/Sun 9th Feb
    * ICM/Guardian 15th Feb



    YG on the 9th is the 19th last poll!
    Not according to Polling Report.

    They have 10 for eleven weeks to go http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9262
    Plus tonights.

    So seven from 12 weeks to go http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9245

    So its the Ashcroft one with the Tory lead that is 19th.
    No.

    Why aren't you using the list on Wikipedia which I among others update almost daily?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Because the wikipedia list contains the poll by TNS for the BBC that shouldn't be there, whilst Mr Wells wisely doesn't have it on his list.
    That was well before "the last 18 polls" that Paul is querying.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Evening all and a very disingenuous headline that only 2 out of 18 polls have had Tory leads. Neither Opinium nor ICM produce polls like diahorrea the way YouGov does. One thing is for sure we now know TNS is just garbage and should be ignored. 3 consecutive months with 7% Labour leads.

    Jim Murphy starting to look and sound pathetic in Scotland now begging Yes voters to support Labour in May. If he is going to be hammered, he could at least behave with a little dignity.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    The electorate's fear about @TheGreenParty's economics in a nutshell

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-Y_vsAIEAAR19e.jpg
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    @TSE

    Last 18 polls inc. Opinium: 
    17–20 Feb	Opinium/The Observer
    18–19 Feb	Populus
    18–19 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    17–18 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    16–17 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    15–16 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    12–16 Feb	TNS
    13–15 Feb	Lord Ashcroft
    13–15 Feb	Populus
    13–15 Feb	ICM/The Guardian
    12–13 Feb	YouGov/Sunday Times
    11–12 Feb	ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday
    11–12 Feb	Populus
    11–12 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
    10–12 Feb	Opinium/The Observer
    10–11 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
    9–10 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
    8–10 Feb	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Labour to give John Prescott a frontline general election role

    Ed Miliband brings back former deputy prime minister to ‘bash heads together’ as Conservatives edge ahead in polls

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/21/labour-john-prescott-election-miliband-conservatives?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Eagles, a fantastic little cartoon.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    Easterross said:

    Evening all and a very disingenuous headline that only 2 out of 18 polls have had Tory leads. Neither Opinium nor ICM produce polls like diahorrea the way YouGov does. One thing is for sure we now know TNS is just garbage and should be ignored. 3 consecutive months with 7% Labour leads.

    A poll is a poll. Each YouGov is unique - they aren't clones.
    And TNS should be ignored because they don't give the results you want?

    "These aren't the polls leads you're looking for!"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    @Pulpstar - for our Grimsby bets

    Veteran Labour MP Austin Mitchell has dismissed Ukip’s chances of winning the Great Grimsby constituency at the general election, saying that Labour would win the hotly contested seat “even” if it had selected a “raving alcoholic sex paedophile” as its candidate.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/labour-mp-austin-mitchell-even-if-we-selected-a-raving-alcoholic-sex-paedophile-we-wouldnt-lose-grimsby-10061754.html
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    @TSE

    Last 18 polls inc. Opinium:

    17–20 Feb	Opinium/The Observer
    18–19 Feb	Populus
    18–19 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    17–18 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    16–17 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    15–16 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    12–16 Feb	TNS
    13–15 Feb	Lord Ashcroft
    13–15 Feb	Populus
    13–15 Feb	ICM/The Guardian
    12–13 Feb	YouGov/Sunday Times
    11–12 Feb	ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday
    11–12 Feb	Populus
    11–12 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
    10–12 Feb	Opinium/The Observer
    10–11 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
    9–10 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
    8–10 Feb	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard


    A yellow box!

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2015
    Ashcroft 34% (9/2/15)
    ICM 'outlier' 36%
    Ipsos 34% (35% on 8/10 or 9/10 intent to vote)
    Opinium 35%

  • JamesMoJamesMo Posts: 35
    HYUFD said:

    Fascinating regional breakdown on EU poll from p56 of the Opinium tables England Stay 49% Leave 51% Wales Stay 44% Leave 58% Scotland Stay 50% Leave 50%

    So more Welsh want to leave than English and the Scots are split down the middle!
    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_17_02_2015_final_tables.pdf

    I would take the Scottish (and Welsh) figures in Opinium with a bucket-load of salt. Since they changed their methodology earlier this month, the SNP have been massively down-weighted each time. Their polls since then have shown weird Scottish sub-sample scores.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    JohnLilburne said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    @TSE

    Last 18 polls inc. Opinium:

    17–20 Feb	Opinium/The Observer
    18–19 Feb	Populus
    18–19 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    17–18 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    16–17 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    15–16 Feb	YouGov/The Sun
    12–16 Feb	TNS
    13–15 Feb	Lord Ashcroft
    13–15 Feb	Populus
    13–15 Feb	ICM/The Guardian
    12–13 Feb	YouGov/Sunday Times
    11–12 Feb	ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday
    11–12 Feb	Populus
    11–12 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
    10–12 Feb	Opinium/The Observer
    10–11 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
    9–10 Feb	YouGov/TheSun
    8–10 Feb	Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard


    A yellow box!

    I am Avery!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The electorate's fear about @TheGreenParty's economics in a nutshell

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-Y_vsAIEAAR19e.jpg

    Amusing indeed, and probably fair too with the Greens, although the worry must surely be that as they will never get a chance to implement their economic ideas, would it really dissuade someone considering voting for them as a protest only?
    Easterross said:

    Evening all and a very disingenuous headline that only 2 out of 18 polls have had Tory leads. Neither Opinium nor ICM produce polls like diahorrea the way YouGov does. .

    I bet if YouGov had been showing consistent Tory leads in that period and the statement was '10 of the last 18 polls have Tory leads' there would not be a problem with including the incessant YouGovs.
    SimonStClare said:

    Blimey - Ed’s net rating amongst his own supporters leaves a lot to be desired.

    Indeed. I get her's not great, but it's amazing he is apparently not regarded well by enough of his own party that they are underrating their own chances as a result.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Chestnut, good spot. The Conservatives *may* have moved up, or this could be a blip of good fortune for them.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Labour to give John Prescott a frontline general election role

    Ed Miliband brings back former deputy prime minister to ‘bash heads together’ as Conservatives edge ahead in polls

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/21/labour-john-prescott-election-miliband-conservatives?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    bring on the clowns.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Easterross said:

    Evening all and a very disingenuous headline that only 2 out of 18 polls have had Tory leads. Neither Opinium nor ICM produce polls like diahorrea the way YouGov does. One thing is for sure we now know TNS is just garbage and should be ignored. 3 consecutive months with 7% Labour leads.

    A poll is a poll. Each YouGov is unique - they aren't clones.
    And TNS should be ignored because they don't give the results you want?

    "These aren't the polls leads you're looking for!"
    Sunil, you are right that each poll is independent, but each polling house has its own biases. If you want to even out polls, you should do and average of only the latest polls from a given polling house, as RCP does with US polls, otherwise you are weighting your average to the biases of the house which polls most frequently. Now if YouGov do multiple series (e.g. a daily, a weekly and then one or more commissioned for others) you might be justified in including the latest of each series. But I am with Easterross on this one - and not just because it gives the result I don't like.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,896
    JamesMo Maybe, but in the euro elections UKIP got 27.5% in Wales and only 10.4% in Scotland so the results are probably not that far off!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Easterross said:

    Evening all and a very disingenuous headline that only 2 out of 18 polls have had Tory leads. Neither Opinium nor ICM produce polls like diahorrea the way YouGov does. One thing is for sure we now know TNS is just garbage and should be ignored. 3 consecutive months with 7% Labour leads.

    A poll is a poll. Each YouGov is unique - they aren't clones.
    And TNS should be ignored because they don't give the results you want?

    "These aren't the polls leads you're looking for!"
    The YG POLLS are kinda cloney - they're too close together to be anything else until much nearer polling day.

    Today's Opinium is the perfect response to the rather bizarre header in the previous thread although no doubt people are frantically thinking of all the reasons why it doesn't count like the ICM one from Monday.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    chestnut said:

    Ashcroft 34% (9/2/15)
    ICM 'outlier' 36%
    Ipsos 34% (35% on 8/10 or 9/10 intent to vote)
    Opinium 35%

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojmH97FntME
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Easterross said:

    Evening all and a very disingenuous headline that only 2 out of 18 polls have had Tory leads. Neither Opinium nor ICM produce polls like diahorrea the way YouGov does. One thing is for sure we now know TNS is just garbage and should be ignored. 3 consecutive months with 7% Labour leads.

    A poll is a poll. Each YouGov is unique - they aren't clones.
    And TNS should be ignored because they don't give the results you want?

    "These aren't the polls leads you're looking for!"
    I happen to agree with Easterross about TNS which part weights its samples to what they did at last year's Euros when turnout was just 36%. That's going to be good for UKIP and bad for CON & LD.

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    YouGov polls were showing the opposite at the end of last year, better polls for the Tories and narrower Labour leads than other pollsters. It won't be a problem closer to the election where we'll get a multitude of polls from different polling companies.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Labour to give John Prescott a frontline general election role

    Ed Miliband brings back former deputy prime minister to ‘bash heads together’ as Conservatives edge ahead in polls

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/21/labour-john-prescott-election-miliband-conservatives?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    And to punch a few constituents?

  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    I haven't looked at the detail of an Opinium poll before. Is it always the case that the Tories receive a significant uplift from Opinium through the weightings? The raw figures seem to be:

    Con 30%
    Lab 34%
    LD 6%
    SNP 4%
    PC 1%
    UKIP 16%
    Green 7%
    BNP 1%
    Other 1%

    PS Isn't Opinium's presentation of the detailed data dreadful?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited February 2015
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    OGH "All told a reassuring poll for the Tories from Opinium but on these figures LAB, even with Scotland problems, likely to have most seats."

    Peter Kellner wrote in an article that if the Cons were ahead they would have most seats.

    I think Kellner is wrong. CON is going to struggle against the LDs in yellow held seats and there's the England effect which he hasn't addressed.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Hengists_Gift said:

    PS Isn't Opinium's presentation of the detailed data dreadful?

    Yes!
    Hengists_Gift said:

    I haven't looked at the detail of an Opinium poll before. Is it always the case that the Tories receive a significant uplift from Opinium through the weightings?

    I think Opinium (and others) rejigged their weighting in January.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9244
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Maybe, just maybe that ICM wasn't an outlier.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    MaxPB said:

    Maybe, just maybe that ICM wasn't an outlier.



    comments like that will be stamped on. ; )
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yeah looking at the sub samples.

    Scotland

    SNP 31, Con 28, Lab 25.

    Okay.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg MP for Glasgow East
    Con gain Banff & Buchan and Western Isles
    Don't mock. My great-great-great-grandfather was MP for Glasgow for many years.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015
    perdix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Labour to give John Prescott a frontline general election role

    Ed Miliband brings back former deputy prime minister to ‘bash heads together’ as Conservatives edge ahead in polls

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/21/labour-john-prescott-election-miliband-conservatives?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    And to punch a few constituents?

    At the last GE, he was such a turn off there wasn't even enough people for him to punch. There was that great picture where he was giving it the big John shouty Tory baby eater speech and one women in a shop-mobility potters past and that is it.

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ttmMQSF70OA/S8xEf-e5qfI/AAAAAAAAAsA/ESUUBoNM0vM/s1600/Prescott.JPG
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    MikeSmithson said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    OGH "All told a reassuring poll for the Tories from Opinium but on these figures LAB, even with Scotland problems, likely to have most seats."

    Peter Kellner wrote in an article that if the Cons were ahead they would have most seats.

    I think Kellner is wrong. CON is going to struggle against the LDs in yellow held seats and there's the England effect which he hasn't addressed.
    Kellner comes across as one of those new Labour types who's desperate for Ed to lose. Perhaps that's unfair and he's just a typical Labour pessimist or he really believes that's what the data says but it's always hard to be truly impartial.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited February 2015
    Aargh ........ I see Mike yet again, for the umpteenth time, quotes his 11.4% statistic within this threader head!
    The truth is that Opinium's key finding is that the difference in the VI between the two major parties (let's not foolishly refer to the LibDems as such any longer) has narrowed by 4% in the Tories' favour since their previous poll. This is potentially hugely significant in terms of the number of seats it would move as Mike is only too well aware.
    Indeed I very much doubt he would have written this morning's thread, at least in such damning terms from the Blues' perspective had he been aware of the numbers in Opinium's poll set to be released just a few hours later - for it largely answers his expressed puzzlement as regards why such diverse expert opinions held by the likes of Stephen Fisher, Peter Kellner, Matthew Shaddick, Rod Crosby, etc all continue to hold a relatively bullish view of the Tories' GE seats prospects.
    We have now seen significant shifts of opinion in favour of the Tories having been reported by ICM and now by Opinium. Were these to be replicated by say another couple of respected pollsters (as opposed to the Mickey Mouse variety) over the next couple of weeks or so, then this would more than justify the current betting market odds, irrespective of Mike's 11.4% mantra, whether he likes it or not!
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @MikeSmithson

    'CON is going to struggle against the LDs in yellow held seats and there's the England effect which he hasn't addressed. '

    How can you claim that when the latest polling,the Lib Dem Survation data has yet to be published and we don't yet know what 'competitive' means?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Ashcroft has the Tories winning or level in around a dozen LD seats and within 4 points on another four.
  • madasafishmadasafish Posts: 659
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yeah looking at the sub samples.

    Scotland

    SNP 31, Con 28, Lab 25.

    Okay.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg MP for Glasgow East
    Con gain Banff & Buchan and Western Isles
    Cons held Banff when I lived in Banffshire :-)

This discussion has been closed.