MPs from Labour’s left are expected to urge Ed Miliband to consider a leadership bid in the coming days, as Keir Starmer faced the prospect of a definite challenge from his MPs next week.
My guess is that you'll lose more from commie Ed putting up taxes on high earners than you'll ever get from that bet. Probably by an order or magnitude or two.
MPs from Labour’s left are expected to urge Ed Miliband to consider a leadership bid in the coming days, as Keir Starmer faced the prospect of a definite challenge from his MPs next week.
Rayner can’t stand until HMRC finish their investigation. Burnham needs to overcome lots of hurdles to even become an MP so if things really go crazy and there ends up being a leadership challenge quickly then Labour could end up in an even worse position .
Hang on, I think Rayner is in the clear.
Worst case scenario she took bad advice and underpaid a small amount of tax. Bad, but apparently its now ok to take 5 mil in crypto, take advice to find an excuse and then not declare it.
Whilst Farage benefits from differential rules, if he can just swat it away, so can she.
The right wing press will hammer Rayner and the BBC which only seems to care when it’s a Labour politician will join in .
So, in a supposedly proportional Parliament the SNP got 45% of the seats with 33% of the votes, the 2 independence parties, SNP+Greens, saw their share of the vote fall to 41% but they have 57% of the seats, the Unionist parties got 59% of the votes but 43% of the seats and Yes is supposedly ahead of No in the polling.
Confused.com comes to Scotland.
No confusion. Losing votes and share and seats is a LANDSLIDE.
So sayeth the Swinney. Also, Stephen Flynn definitely does not want to be First Minister. No no no. Not at all.
The SNP lost 414,127 constituency votes and 428,465 regional votes compared to the last time.
There must be a betting opportunity about when Flynn takes over. I'm guessing by the end of the current year.
He is 100% plotting. Was very full of himself at the Aberdeen count.
Rayner can’t stand until HMRC finish their investigation. Burnham needs to overcome lots of hurdles to even become an MP so if things really go crazy and there ends up being a leadership challenge quickly then Labour could end up in an even worse position .
Hang on, I think Rayner is in the clear.
Worst case scenario she took bad advice and underpaid a small amount of tax. Bad, but apparently its now ok to take 5 mil in crypto, take advice to find an excuse and then not declare it.
Whilst Farage benefits from differential rules, if he can just swat it away, so can she.
Na, she can’t because of her sanctimonious attitude to any Tory with the slightest hint of financial impropriety.
Rayner can’t stand until HMRC finish their investigation. Burnham needs to overcome lots of hurdles to even become an MP so if things really go crazy and there ends up being a leadership challenge quickly then Labour could end up in an even worse position .
Hang on, I think Rayner is in the clear.
Worst case scenario she took bad advice and underpaid a small amount of tax. Bad, but apparently its now ok to take 5 mil in crypto, take advice to find an excuse and then not declare it.
Whilst Farage benefits from differential rules, if he can just swat it away, so can she.
Rayner isn't in the clear yet - which is why West / Streeting are moving quickly. Currently 2 of the favourites (Rayner, Burnham) are at the vets unable to start.
Its interesting that the Greens came from nowhere to win Lewisham and Waltham Forest (in Hackney they at least had some sort of track record) yet in Camden and Islington they failed to blow the doors off.
MPs from Labour’s left are expected to urge Ed Miliband to consider a leadership bid in the coming days, as Keir Starmer faced the prospect of a definite challenge from his MPs next week.
My guess is that you'll lose more from commie Ed putting up taxes on high earners than you'll ever get from that bet. Probably by an order or magnitude or two.
West is just a stalking horse. She’ll withdraw as she said she basically wants a coronation.
I reckon coronation of Streeting seems highly likely.
Sorry but that (a coronation) is the last thing that's going to happen. If Streeting stands it'll be contested.
From the New Statesman 3 days ago:
"Angela Rayner is likely to be a decisive figure. She has let it be known she will not stand aside should Streeting launch a leadership bid before Burnham’s return to parliament. While Rayner is not hostile to Streeting on a personal level, she believes his victory would be a continuation of what she sees as the Labour right’s disastrous control of the party, which she blames for the infighting that has led it where it finds itself today. Rayner is determined to see a leader who can unite the Labour Party."
EXCL Catherine West speaks to the New Statesman about her leadership bid, including:
Party leadership begged her to delay this move until Tuesday, after the PM’s reset speech
Dismisses anger from leadership camps that were blindsided: “some people will be upset with me because of the risk, because some of them had a plan about, you know, in six months time, we're gonna do this, and then we're gonna do that. Sorry, that's just too late.”
Says Andy Burnham cannot be PM: “I'm sorry for people who had a big plan about particular candidates who one day will be, you know, an MP and all that sort of thing… I really like Andy, but he's not here on the spot, so he can't really do it”
She says she is both a “lone wolf” and a “stalking horse” but that: “You know what sometimes happens to stalking horses? They become the candidate”
She will not back down until other candidates publicly announce - not private assurances or backroom deals: “They've got to be open, they need to be upfront like me.”
Thinks next PM could be an unknown MP and even one from the 2024 intake - thinks her shock move could trigger a more interesting contest
So, in a supposedly proportional Parliament the SNP got 45% of the seats with 33% of the votes, the 2 independence parties, SNP+Greens, saw their share of the vote fall to 41% but they have 57% of the seats, the Unionist parties got 59% of the votes but 43% of the seats and Yes is supposedly ahead of No in the polling.
Confused.com comes to Scotland.
No confusion. Losing votes and share and seats is a LANDSLIDE.
So sayeth the Swinney. Also, Stephen Flynn definitely does not want to be First Minister. No no no. Not at all.
The SNP lost 414,127 constituency votes and 428,465 regional votes compared to the last time.
There must be a betting opportunity about when Flynn takes over. I'm guessing by the end of the current year.
He is 100% plotting. Was very full of himself at the Aberdeen count.
Its not even a plot. I am sure Swinney is fully signed up for it. He may hang around until that trial so it doesn't embarrass his successor but then he will be gone.
Or journalists read pb and know they can make up unattributed quotes without any risk.
I don't believe any journalists or politicians worth their salt read below the line, that would be such a waste of their time. John Rentoul definitely has read headers though.
EXCL Catherine West speaks to the New Statesman about her leadership bid, including:
Party leadership begged her to delay this move until Tuesday, after the PM’s reset speech
Dismisses anger from leadership camps that were blindsided: “some people will be upset with me because of the risk, because some of them had a plan about, you know, in six months time, we're gonna do this, and then we're gonna do that. Sorry, that's just too late.”
Says Andy Burnham cannot be PM: “I'm sorry for people who had a big plan about particular candidates who one day will be, you know, an MP and all that sort of thing… I really like Andy, but he's not here on the spot, so he can't really do it”
She says she is both a “lone wolf” and a “stalking horse” but that: “You know what sometimes happens to stalking horses? They become the candidate”
She will not back down until other candidates publicly announce - not private assurances or backroom deals: “They've got to be open, they need to be upfront like me.”
Thinks next PM could be an unknown MP and even one from the 2024 intake - thinks her shock move could trigger a more interesting contest
EXCL Catherine West speaks to the New Statesman about her leadership bid, including:
Party leadership begged her to delay this move until Tuesday, after the PM’s reset speech
Dismisses anger from leadership camps that were blindsided: “some people will be upset with me because of the risk, because some of them had a plan about, you know, in six months time, we're gonna do this, and then we're gonna do that. Sorry, that's just too late.”
Says Andy Burnham cannot be PM: “I'm sorry for people who had a big plan about particular candidates who one day will be, you know, an MP and all that sort of thing… I really like Andy, but he's not here on the spot, so he can't really do it”
She says she is both a “lone wolf” and a “stalking horse” but that: “You know what sometimes happens to stalking horses? They become the candidate”
She will not back down until other candidates publicly announce - not private assurances or backroom deals: “They've got to be open, they need to be upfront like me.”
Thinks next PM could be an unknown MP and even one from the 2024 intake - thinks her shock move could trigger a more interesting contest
Admirably direct and no nonsense - perhaps she is the right choice after all!
So, in a supposedly proportional Parliament the SNP got 45% of the seats with 33% of the votes, the 2 independence parties, SNP+Greens, saw their share of the vote fall to 41% but they have 57% of the seats, the Unionist parties got 59% of the votes but 43% of the seats and Yes is supposedly ahead of No in the polling.
Confused.com comes to Scotland.
No confusion. Losing votes and share and seats is a LANDSLIDE.
So sayeth the Swinney. Also, Stephen Flynn definitely does not want to be First Minister. No no no. Not at all.
The SNP lost 414,127 constituency votes and 428,465 regional votes compared to the last time.
There must be a betting opportunity about when Flynn takes over. I'm guessing by the end of the current year.
He is 100% plotting. Was very full of himself at the Aberdeen count.
Its not even a plot. I am sure Swinney is fully signed up for it. He may hang around until that trial so it doesn't embarrass his successor but then he will be gone.
The trial where Nicola Sturgeon will say she cannot remember if the Chief Executive of the party she led was her husband?
MPs from Labour’s left are expected to urge Ed Miliband to consider a leadership bid in the coming days, as Keir Starmer faced the prospect of a definite challenge from his MPs next week.
My guess is that you'll lose more from commie Ed putting up taxes on high earners than you'll ever get from that bet. Probably by an order or magnitude or two.
So, in a supposedly proportional Parliament the SNP got 45% of the seats with 33% of the votes, the 2 independence parties, SNP+Greens, saw their share of the vote fall to 41% but they have 57% of the seats, the Unionist parties got 59% of the votes but 43% of the seats and Yes is supposedly ahead of No in the polling.
Confused.com comes to Scotland.
No confusion. Losing votes and share and seats is a LANDSLIDE.
So sayeth the Swinney. Also, Stephen Flynn definitely does not want to be First Minister. No no no. Not at all.
The SNP lost 414,127 constituency votes and 428,465 regional votes compared to the last time.
There must be a betting opportunity about when Flynn takes over. I'm guessing by the end of the current year.
He is 100% plotting. Was very full of himself at the Aberdeen count.
Its not even a plot. I am sure Swinney is fully signed up for it. He may hang around until that trial so it doesn't embarrass his successor but then he will be gone.
That trial where Nicola Sturgeon will say she cannot remember if the Chief Executive of the party she led was her husband?
Damn good of him to embezzle money and make sure she was legally insulated from it though. He's lucky the treasurer and others did not or could not look at the books I guess.
(I actually assume he won't be convicted, it's been so glacially slow and financial crimes are so tricksy).
Or journalists read pb and know they can make up unattributed quotes without any risk.
I don't believe any journalists or politicians worth their salt read below the line, that would be such a waste of their time. John Rentoul definitely has read headers though.
Ruling out journalists and politicians worth their salt doesn't actually change the odds much......
Rayner can’t stand until HMRC finish their investigation. Burnham needs to overcome lots of hurdles to even become an MP so if things really go crazy and there ends up being a leadership challenge quickly then Labour could end up in an even worse position .
Hang on, I think Rayner is in the clear.
Worst case scenario she took bad advice and underpaid a small amount of tax. Bad, but apparently its now ok to take 5 mil in crypto, take advice to find an excuse and then not declare it.
Whilst Farage benefits from differential rules, if he can just swat it away, so can she.
Rayner isn't in the clear yet - which is why West / Streeting are moving quickly. Currently 2 of the favourites (Rayner, Burnham) are at the vets unable to start.
I think there is a difference there -- Burnham simply can't stand currently because the rules disqualify him. Rayner is able to stand and merely has to face the question of whether MPs and members think her current unresolved tax problems make her a worse choice than someone else, or whether they're willing to gamble because the other options are even worse. So Burnham is at the vets, whereas Rayner is at the starting line but may well pull up lame in the opening straight.
If Starmer announced the sacking of Hermer, I might think he stood a chance of surviving.
Hermer has been a poison at the heart of the government. There is no place for an activist AG in our system. And Hermer has been that and more.
Signalling a willingness to cut all ties with Hermer and anyone else who has been part of his Chambers would show a real willingness to change.
Dumping J Powell is also necessary as part of the purge.
But Starmer is too weak to do this.
I don't think the general public will be aware of who Hermer is, but as a sacrificial lamb he is an easy one to make since he has no independent allies in Parliament being an outsider parachuted in as a friend of Starmer, and he has plenty of choices to replace him.
Keir Starmer tells Rachel Sylvester of the Observer he is planning to be in office for another eight years - just in case any of his MPs had any doubt about that
“The prime minister described his government as a ‘10-year project of renewal’. Asked whether he would definitely lead his party into the next general election and serve a full second term, he said: ‘Yes, I will.’”
So, in a supposedly proportional Parliament the SNP got 45% of the seats with 33% of the votes, the 2 independence parties, SNP+Greens, saw their share of the vote fall to 41% but they have 57% of the seats, the Unionist parties got 59% of the votes but 43% of the seats and Yes is supposedly ahead of No in the polling.
Confused.com comes to Scotland.
No confusion. Losing votes and share and seats is a LANDSLIDE.
So sayeth the Swinney. Also, Stephen Flynn definitely does not want to be First Minister. No no no. Not at all.
The SNP lost 414,127 constituency votes and 428,465 regional votes compared to the last time.
There must be a betting opportunity about when Flynn takes over. I'm guessing by the end of the current year.
He is 100% plotting. Was very full of himself at the Aberdeen count.
Its not even a plot. I am sure Swinney is fully signed up for it. He may hang around until that trial so it doesn't embarrass his successor but then he will be gone.
That trial where Nicola Sturgeon will say she cannot remember if the Chief Executive of the party she led was her husband?
Damn good of him to embezzle money and make sure she was legally insulated from it though. He's lucky the treasurer and others did not or could not look at the books I guess.
(I actually assume he won't be convicted, it's been so glacially slow and financial crimes are so tricksy).
It's absolutely been my favourite political scandal of recent years, I'll never be able to look at a motorhome again without smiling.
Keir Starmer tells Rachel Sylvester of the Observer he is planning to be in office for another eight years - just in case any of his MPs had any doubt about that
“The prime minister described his government as a ‘10-year project of renewal’. Asked whether he would definitely lead his party into the next general election and serve a full second term, he said: ‘Yes, I will.’”
If Starmer announced the sacking of Hermer, I might think he stood a chance of surviving.
Hermer has been a poison at the heart of the government. There is no place for an activist AG in our system. And Hermer has been that and more.
Signalling a willingness to cut all ties with Hermer and anyone else who has been part of his Chambers would show a real willingness to change.
Dumping J Powell is also necessary as part of the purge.
But Starmer is too weak to do this.
I don't think the general public will be aware of who Hermer is, but as a sacrificial lamb he is an easy one to make since he has no independent allies in Parliament being an outsider parachuted in as a friend of Starmer, and he has plenty of choices to replace him.
I don't disagree that Hermer is little known but his impact has been toxic across Whitehall.
Rayner can’t stand until HMRC finish their investigation. Burnham needs to overcome lots of hurdles to even become an MP so if things really go crazy and there ends up being a leadership challenge quickly then Labour could end up in an even worse position .
Hang on, I think Rayner is in the clear.
Worst case scenario she took bad advice and underpaid a small amount of tax. Bad, but apparently its now ok to take 5 mil in crypto, take advice to find an excuse and then not declare it.
Whilst Farage benefits from differential rules, if he can just swat it away, so can she.
Rayner isn't in the clear yet - which is why West / Streeting are moving quickly. Currently 2 of the favourites (Rayner, Burnham) are at the vets unable to start.
The Mail has several paywalls guarding different content and I don't really understand it. However, here are some highlights of this story:-
Burnham has a seat lined up; private polling says he will win. If Starmer blocks this run, allies will force a contest to oust him.
Rayner is a possible rival but the HMRC problem remains.
Wes Streeting's Redbridge did best for Labour on Thursday which will be used to support his run; Labour's vote in Rayner's and Burnham's areas collapsed.
Starmer's attempted relaunch with Harman and Brown was planned months ago but has gone down badly. There are also fears that it might prove disruptive if they dabble in policy (and if they don't, what are they there for?).
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
There are various possibilities but I can 100% assure you that one of them is not Keir Starmer beating Catherine West in a binary leadership contest. Seriously, no chance. Zero. I'll put a Reform poster in my window if I'm wrong.
Well in terms of the wider public: West hasn't been the subject of sustained derision from the right wing press. She hasn't got the association with Mandelson and factional reputation that Streeting has. She hasn't got the HMRC problems of Rayner. She hasn't got the historical baggage associated with Miliband. So she has a fairly blank slate to define. And when the she starts to define that slate in a leadership campaign, the public will be listening, because if she does try to force the derided Starmer out when all other contenders are hanging back, she'll start off being regarded as a saint in the eyes of much of the general public.
And she's got other qualities which would appeal to the Labour membership selectorate: She would be a woman running for PM in a party that shamefully has never had a woman as leader. She's on the soft left wing of the party which is ascendent amongst the membership selectorate. She's pro EU enough to have been sacked as a frontbencher by Corbyn for voting in favour of the single market.
So everything about her says that, if enough Labour MPs want to force a contest now (and it would take only 20%), then she'd start with the public's blessing which would be translated into positive hypothetical Labour polling on a her v Starmer as PM basis. That would in turn help her in the leadership poll of a membership which is crying out for a change.
In short, if she ends up in a binary leadership contest with Starmer, I think she have a very decent chance. That would be the 2nd time in 11 years that the Labour membership would have confounded the opinion of the pundits by backing an outsider.
What would take the biscuit would be if Streeting lent her his supporters nominations to weaken Starmer, thinking she'd lose badly and that he could afterwards step in and win a second contest, only for her to go on and win.
The Mail has several paywalls guarding different content and I don't really understand it. However, here are some highlights of this story:-
Burnham has a seat lined up; private polling says he will win. If Starmer blocks this run, allies will force a contest to oust him.
Rayner is a possible rival but the HMRC problem remains.
Wes Streeting's Redbridge did best for Labour on Thursday which will be used to support his run; Labour's vote in Rayner's and Burnham's areas collapsed.
Starmer's attempted relaunch with Harman and Brown was planned months ago but has gone down badly. There are also fears that it might prove disruptive if they dabble in policy (and if they don't, what are they there for?).
LOL. "If" Gordon Brown dabbles in policy? He eats and sleeps policy and minute detail.
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
There are various possibilities but I can 100% assure you that one of them is not Keir Starmer beating Catherine West in a binary leadership contest. Seriously, no chance. Zero. I'll put a Reform poster in my window if I'm wrong.
Well in terms of the wider public: West hasn't been the subject of sustained derision from the right wing press. She hasn't got the association with Mandelson and factional reputation that Streeting has. She hasn't got the HMRC problems of Rayner. She hasn't got the historical baggage associated with Miliband. So she has a fairly blank slate to define. And when the she starts to define that slate in a leadership campaign, the public will be listening, because if she does try to force the derided Starmer out when all other contenders are hanging back, she'll be regarded as a saint in the eyes of much of the general public.
And she's got other qualities which would appeal to the Labour membership selectorate: She would be a woman running for PM in a party that shamefully has never had a woman as leader. She's on the soft left wing of the party which is ascendent amongst the membership selectorate. She's pro EU enough to have been sacked as a frontbencher by Corbyn for voting in favour of the single market.
So everything about her says that, if enough Labour MPs want to force a contest now (and it would take only 20%), then she'd start with the public's blessing which would be translated into positive hypothetical Labour polling on a her v Starmer as PM basis. That would in turn help her in the leadership poll of a membership which is crying out for a change.
In short, if she ends up in a binary leadership contest with Starmer, I think she have a very decent chance. That would be the 2nd time in 11 years that the Labour membership would have confounded the opinion of the pundits by backing an outsider.
What would take the biscuit would be if Streeting lent her his supporters nominations to weaken Starmer, thinking she'd lose badly and that he could afterwards step in and win a second contest, only for her to go on and win.
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
There are various possibilities but I can 100% assure you that one of them is not Keir Starmer beating Catherine West in a binary leadership contest. Seriously, no chance. Zero. I'll put a Reform poster in my window if I'm wrong.
Well in terms of the wider public: West hasn't been the subject of sustained derision from the right wing press. She hasn't got the association with Mandelson and factional reputation that Streeting has. She hasn't got the HMRC problems of Rayner. She hasn't got the historical baggage associated with Miliband. So she has a fairly blank slate to define. And when the she starts to define that slate in a leadership campaign, the public will be listening, because if she does try to force the derided Starmer out when all other contenders are hanging back, she'll be regarded as a saint in the eyes of much of the general public.
And she's got other qualities which would appeal to the Labour membership selectorate: She would be a woman running for PM in a party that shamefully has never had a woman as leader. She's on the soft left wing of the party which is ascendent amongst the membership selectorate. She's pro EU enough to have been sacked as a frontbencher by Corbyn for voting in favour of the single market.
So everything about her says that, if enough Labour MPs want to force a contest now (and it would take only 20%), then she'd start with the public's blessing which would be translated into positive hypothetical Labour polling on a her v Starmer as PM basis. That would in turn help her in the leadership poll of a membership which is crying out for a change.
In short, if she ends up in a binary leadership contest with Starmer, I think she have a very decent chance. That would be the 2nd time in 11 years that the Labour membership would have confounded the opinion of the pundits by backing an outsider.
What would take the biscuit would be if Streeting lent her his supporters nominations to weaken Starmer, thinking she'd lose badly and that he could afterwards step in and win a second contest, only for her to go on and win.
So, it is all dependent upon 20% of Labour MPs having a backbone?
Keir Starmer tells Rachel Sylvester of the Observer he is planning to be in office for another eight years - just in case any of his MPs had any doubt about that
“The prime minister described his government as a ‘10-year project of renewal’. Asked whether he would definitely lead his party into the next general election and serve a full second term, he said: ‘Yes, I will.’”
On and on?
When does this "10-year project of renewal" start?
Senior MP texts to tell me that “everyone sensible” is trying to get Catherine West to withdraw. “It’s completely irresponsible”. MP also says they think Streeting allies will lend votes to West to try trigger race
Its interesting that the Greens came from nowhere to win Lewisham and Waltham Forest (in Hackney they at least had some sort of track record) yet in Camden and Islington they failed to blow the doors off.
I thought Brockley area was one of the areas where the greens had been there or thereabouts for a long time.
Keir Starmer tells Rachel Sylvester of the Observer he is planning to be in office for another eight years - just in case any of his MPs had any doubt about that
“The prime minister described his government as a ‘10-year project of renewal’. Asked whether he would definitely lead his party into the next general election and serve a full second term, he said: ‘Yes, I will.’”
On and on?
There's no chance a person who got an act of parliament to secure his pension will not hang on to his job for dear life
EXCL Catherine West speaks to the New Statesman about her leadership bid, including:
Party leadership begged her to delay this move until Tuesday, after the PM’s reset speech
Dismisses anger from leadership camps that were blindsided: “some people will be upset with me because of the risk, because some of them had a plan about, you know, in six months time, we're gonna do this, and then we're gonna do that. Sorry, that's just too late.”
Says Andy Burnham cannot be PM: “I'm sorry for people who had a big plan about particular candidates who one day will be, you know, an MP and all that sort of thing… I really like Andy, but he's not here on the spot, so he can't really do it”
She says she is both a “lone wolf” and a “stalking horse” but that: “You know what sometimes happens to stalking horses? They become the candidate”
She will not back down until other candidates publicly announce - not private assurances or backroom deals: “They've got to be open, they need to be upfront like me.”
Thinks next PM could be an unknown MP and even one from the 2024 intake - thinks her shock move could trigger a more interesting contest
I'm liking her no bullshit angle if nothing else.
She also said: A friend losing her council seat was part of her reason for going now
Keir Starmer tells Rachel Sylvester of the Observer he is planning to be in office for another eight years - just in case any of his MPs had any doubt about that
“The prime minister described his government as a ‘10-year project of renewal’. Asked whether he would definitely lead his party into the next general election and serve a full second term, he said: ‘Yes, I will.’”
On and on?
There's no chance a person who got an act of parliament to secure his pension will not hang on to his job for dear life
You’ve said this before. It wasn’t unique to him, it was standard practice for all Directors of Public Prosecutions.
So, in a supposedly proportional Parliament the SNP got 45% of the seats with 33% of the votes, the 2 independence parties, SNP+Greens, saw their share of the vote fall to 41% but they have 57% of the seats, the Unionist parties got 59% of the votes but 43% of the seats and Yes is supposedly ahead of No in the polling.
Confused.com comes to Scotland.
No confusion. Losing votes and share and seats is a LANDSLIDE.
So sayeth the Swinney. Also, Stephen Flynn definitely does not want to be First Minister. No no no. Not at all.
The SNP lost 414,127 constituency votes and 428,465 regional votes compared to the last time.
There must be a betting opportunity about when Flynn takes over. I'm guessing by the end of the current year.
He is 100% plotting. Was very full of himself at the Aberdeen count.
Its not even a plot. I am sure Swinney is fully signed up for it. He may hang around until that trial so it doesn't embarrass his successor but then he will be gone.
The trial where Nicola Sturgeon will say she cannot remember if the Chief Executive of the party she led was her husband?
Keir Starmer tells Rachel Sylvester of the Observer he is planning to be in office for another eight years - just in case any of his MPs had any doubt about that
“The prime minister described his government as a ‘10-year project of renewal’. Asked whether he would definitely lead his party into the next general election and serve a full second term, he said: ‘Yes, I will.’”
On and on?
When does this "10-year project of renewal" start?
Miliband helps a little bit with reclaiming Green votes and has done the job before.
But to public though it will look uninspired, same old politicians.
My guess is it needs to be Rayner - great back story, fresh face to much of the public - and up for a fight.
Streeting also might do well vs. Farage. Is a good communicator. But I don't think he can win a contest.
Being a teenage mum is not a qualification to be a leader.
Put her in the Prescott role. That is the only place that fits her skill set.
Being a teenage mum and then a care worker and then becoming an MP and Deputy Leader of a political party is very impressive and is more life experience than most politicians.
Lewisham 38 to 13, just one ward of three seats left
So we've reached 1,495 Labour losses and it might go to 1,498r (subject to Labour being the party defending those three seats), enough for the rounded figure of 1,500 losses to be used entirely legitimately in describing Starmer's malign impact in the weeks to come.
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
There are various possibilities but I can 100% assure you that one of them is not Keir Starmer beating Catherine West in a binary leadership contest. Seriously, no chance. Zero. I'll put a Reform poster in my window if I'm wrong.
Well in terms of the wider public: West hasn't been the subject of sustained derision from the right wing press. She hasn't got the association with Mandelson and factional reputation that Streeting has. She hasn't got the HMRC problems of Rayner. She hasn't got the historical baggage associated with Miliband. So she has a fairly blank slate to define. And when the she starts to define that slate in a leadership campaign, the public will be listening, because if she does try to force the derided Starmer out when all other contenders are hanging back, she'll start off being regarded as a saint in the eyes of much of the general public.
And she's got other qualities which would appeal to the Labour membership selectorate: She would be a woman running for PM in a party that shamefully has never had a woman as leader. She's on the soft left wing of the party which is ascendent amongst the membership selectorate. She's pro EU enough to have been sacked as a frontbencher by Corbyn for voting in favour of the single market.
So everything about her says that, if enough Labour MPs want to force a contest now (and it would take only 20%), then she'd start with the public's blessing which would be translated into positive hypothetical Labour polling on a her v Starmer as PM basis. That would in turn help her in the leadership poll of a membership which is crying out for a change.
In short, if she ends up in a binary leadership contest with Starmer, I think she have a very decent chance. That would be the 2nd time in 11 years that the Labour membership would have confounded the opinion of the pundits by backing an outsider.
What would take the biscuit would be if Streeting lent her his supporters nominations to weaken Starmer, thinking she'd lose badly and that he could afterwards step in and win a second contest, only for her to go on and win.
Much like Mrs T and Willie Whitelaw all those decades ago.
Blue Labour has pissed off the Labour core vote without winning back the "Social Conservatives"*
* what does these mean apart from covert racists?
They don't like gays or young women with blue hair or nose piercing either.
Includes those, sure, but also probably just those who are not as keen to focus full throated on various progressive causes. As opposed to those for whom social causes are the key reason they are in politics.
Senior MP texts to tell me that “everyone sensible” is trying to get Catherine West to withdraw. “It’s completely irresponsible”. MP also says they think Streeting allies will lend votes to West to try trigger race
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
There are various possibilities but I can 100% assure you that one of them is not Keir Starmer beating Catherine West in a binary leadership contest. Seriously, no chance. Zero. I'll put a Reform poster in my window if I'm wrong.
Well in terms of the wider public: West hasn't been the subject of sustained derision from the right wing press. She hasn't got the association with Mandelson and factional reputation that Streeting has. She hasn't got the HMRC problems of Rayner. She hasn't got the historical baggage associated with Miliband. So she has a fairly blank slate to define. And when the she starts to define that slate in a leadership campaign, the public will be listening, because if she does try to force the derided Starmer out when all other contenders are hanging back, she'll start off being regarded as a saint in the eyes of much of the general public.
And she's got other qualities which would appeal to the Labour membership selectorate: She would be a woman running for PM in a party that shamefully has never had a woman as leader. She's on the soft left wing of the party which is ascendent amongst the membership selectorate. She's pro EU enough to have been sacked as a frontbencher by Corbyn for voting in favour of the single market.
So everything about her says that, if enough Labour MPs want to force a contest now (and it would take only 20%), then she'd start with the public's blessing which would be translated into positive hypothetical Labour polling on a her v Starmer as PM basis. That would in turn help her in the leadership poll of a membership which is crying out for a change.
In short, if she ends up in a binary leadership contest with Starmer, I think she have a very decent chance. That would be the 2nd time in 11 years that the Labour membership would have confounded the opinion of the pundits by backing an outsider.
What would take the biscuit would be if Streeting lent her his supporters nominations to weaken Starmer, thinking she'd lose badly and that he could afterwards step in and win a second contest, only for her to go on and win.
There wouldn't be a second contest in that scenario. Starmer would be safe unless he decided to retire.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson Shadow Housing Secretary James Cleverly Reform UK's Business Spokesperson Richard Tice Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iowerth Labour MP Catherine West
Senior MP texts to tell me that “everyone sensible” is trying to get Catherine West to withdraw. “It’s completely irresponsible”. MP also says they think Streeting allies will lend votes to West to try trigger race
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson Shadow Housing Secretary James Cleverly Reform UK's Business Spokesperson Richard Tice Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iowerth Labour MP Catherine West
West is clearly absolutely terrified of Reform and says these elections are an experience she never wants to go through again. High emotions driving a lot of what we're seeing in Labour
Comments
Its interesting that the Greens came from nowhere to win Lewisham and Waltham Forest (in Hackney they at least had some sort of track record) yet in Camden and Islington they failed to blow the doors off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAWmKgIOqv8
Strap in, its going to be a wild ride.
But to public though it will look uninspired, same old politicians.
My guess is it needs to be Rayner - great back story, fresh face to much of the public - and up for a fight.
Streeting also might do well vs. Farage. Is a good communicator. But I don't think he can win a contest.
EXCL Catherine West speaks to the New Statesman about her leadership bid, including:
Party leadership begged her to delay this move until Tuesday, after the PM’s reset speech
Dismisses anger from leadership camps that were blindsided: “some people will be upset with me because of the risk, because some of them had a plan about, you know, in six months time, we're gonna do this, and then we're gonna do that. Sorry, that's just too late.”
Says Andy Burnham cannot be PM: “I'm sorry for people who had a big plan about particular candidates who one day will be, you know, an MP and all that sort of thing… I really like Andy, but he's not here on the spot, so he can't really do it”
She says she is both a “lone wolf” and a “stalking horse” but that: “You know what sometimes happens to stalking horses? They become the candidate”
She will not back down until other candidates publicly announce - not private assurances or backroom deals: “They've got to be open, they need to be upfront like me.”
Thinks next PM could be an unknown MP and even one from the 2024 intake - thinks her shock move could trigger a more interesting contest
Hermer has been a poison at the heart of the government. There is no place for an activist AG in our system. And Hermer has been that and more.
Signalling a willingness to cut all ties with Hermer and anyone else who has been part of his Chambers would show a real willingness to change.
Dumping J Powell is also necessary as part of the purge.
But Starmer is too weak to do this.
Also you: Ed Miliband is a communist
(I actually assume he won't be convicted, it's been so glacially slow and financial crimes are so tricksy).
No 2 AV: 68%
Yes 2 AV: 32%
12 is too young to be introduced to the thick of it isn't?
Damn! Attenborough tributes then.
Keir Starmer tells Rachel Sylvester of the Observer he is planning to be in office for another eight years - just in case any of his MPs had any doubt about that
“The prime minister described his government as a ‘10-year project of renewal’. Asked whether he would definitely lead his party into the next general election and serve a full second term, he said: ‘Yes, I will.’”
Put her in the Prescott role. That is the only place that fits her skill set.
Burnham has a seat lined up; private polling says he will win. If Starmer blocks this run, allies will force a contest to oust him.
Rayner is a possible rival but the HMRC problem remains.
Wes Streeting's Redbridge did best for Labour on Thursday which will be used to support his run; Labour's vote in Rayner's and Burnham's areas collapsed.
Starmer's attempted relaunch with Harman and Brown was planned months ago but has gone down badly. There are also fears that it might prove disruptive if they dabble in policy (and if they don't, what are they there for?).
West hasn't been the subject of sustained derision from the right wing press.
She hasn't got the association with Mandelson and factional reputation that Streeting has.
She hasn't got the HMRC problems of Rayner.
She hasn't got the historical baggage associated with Miliband.
So she has a fairly blank slate to define.
And when the she starts to define that slate in a leadership campaign, the public will be listening, because if she does try to force the derided Starmer out when all other contenders are hanging back, she'll start off being regarded as a saint in the eyes of much of the general public.
And she's got other qualities which would appeal to the Labour membership selectorate:
She would be a woman running for PM in a party that shamefully has never had a woman as leader.
She's on the soft left wing of the party which is ascendent amongst the membership selectorate.
She's pro EU enough to have been sacked as a frontbencher by Corbyn for voting in favour of the single market.
So everything about her says that, if enough Labour MPs want to force a contest now (and it would take only 20%), then she'd start with the public's blessing which would be translated into positive hypothetical Labour polling on a her v Starmer as PM basis. That would in turn help her in the leadership poll of a membership which is crying out for a change.
In short, if she ends up in a binary leadership contest with Starmer, I think she have a very decent chance. That would be the 2nd time in 11 years that the Labour membership would have confounded the opinion of the pundits by backing an outsider.
What would take the biscuit would be if Streeting lent her his supporters nominations to weaken Starmer, thinking she'd lose badly and that he could afterwards step in and win a second contest, only for her to go on and win.
As you were then.
She was the MP that asked the question about Partygate that Boris Johnson lied to.
*After a fashion.
Steering Britain back to Europe would reunite progressives, boost growth and turn Tories and Reform into defenders of the status quo
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/keir-starmer-eu-britain-labour-ccq0qv9bc
https://x.com/Jonathan_Hinder/status/2053119342020005954
Blue Labour has pissed off the Labour core vote without winning back the "Social Conservatives"*
* what does these mean apart from covert racists?
I'm rooting for the nasal voiced twerp now.
Colonel Alistair Scott Carns, DSO, OBE, MC
They're terrific to watch.
https://x.com/meganekenyon/status/2053192517588296193
Exc - MPs from Labour’s left are expected to urge Ed Miliband to consider a leadership bid in the coming days
If Wes Streeting mounts a challenge then MPs say they would rather back Miliband than Rayner. Team Streeting deny anything is in motion.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson
Shadow Housing Secretary James Cleverly
Reform UK's Business Spokesperson Richard Tice
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iowerth
Labour MP Catherine West
Sunday 9am @BBCOne @BBCiPlayer
https://x.com/BBCPolitics/status/2053197987111661933
Seemed actually take responsibility,
Was it a moderately subtle dig at Starmer, or was that my imagination?
West is clearly absolutely terrified of Reform and says these elections are an experience she never wants to go through again. High emotions driving a lot of what we're seeing in Labour
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/2053179647534260269
Balls of steel.