I'm expecting several Adrian Aadvarks standing at the next multi-candidate election.
Now the dust has settled from the local elections, it's time to talk about vote-rigging. In particular, the way in which a sinister force has been manipulating British democracy in council after council, year after year. That force? The goddamn alphabet. (1/?) https://x.com/rcolvile/status/2053018174736548351
They will be beaten, of course, by Aaron A. Aaronson
‘Andy has the seat lined up,’ an ally confirmed. ‘He’s going to go for it.’
The identity of the constituency is currently a tightly guarded secret. But Burnham’s team are completely confident he will be able to carry it in a subsequent by-election.
‘We’re not idiots,’ one ally explained. ‘We’re not just going to throw him out there. We’ve been conducting our own private polling and we’ve been crunching the national and local polls. He’ll win.’
How are they going to get around the fact the whips control when the writ is moved?
MPs from Labour’s left are expected to urge Ed Miliband to consider a leadership bid in the coming days, as Keir Starmer faced the prospect of a definite challenge from his MPs next week.
‘Andy has the seat lined up,’ an ally confirmed. ‘He’s going to go for it.’
The identity of the constituency is currently a tightly guarded secret. But Burnham’s team are completely confident he will be able to carry it in a subsequent by-election.
‘We’re not idiots,’ one ally explained. ‘We’re not just going to throw him out there. We’ve been conducting our own private polling and we’ve been crunching the national and local polls. He’ll win.’
How are they going to get around the fact the whips control when the writ is moved?
Party pressure I guess. If enough of the PLP and also unions pushing for it then happens me thinks
Monday is letters rogatory day for me, so for most of the day, I will not be around to focus on politics.
Why do I have a feeling it's all going to kick off on Monday.
I have the last exam of my LLB on Monday. English Property Law, which might just be less surreal than a backbencher becoming PM but only, but only just!
I’m a bit confused. Why doesn’t the chief whip just make some stuff up about Catherine West and suspend the whip? That’s what they normally do when MPs have the audacity to speak
The key thing is that by declaring her candidacy, following the precedent of Angela Eagle in 2016, Catherine West would prompt the NEC to open a window for nominations to be collected for any candidate, inviting more serious contenders.
This keeps being missed by commentators.
Is there a time limit on the window ?
Hopefully not the same sort of window we see in Russian politics.
Even to be nominated West needs more nominations from Labour MPs than Meyer won Tory MPs votes in 1989.
So if she is nominated to challenge Starmer he is almost certainly doomed even if he wins a pyrrhic victory. After Thatcher beat Meyer Heseltine challenged her the following year and rather than face humiliating defeat to Hezza in a second ballot after he got 40% of Tory MPs behind him in the first ballot she resigned and John Major was elected Tory leader and PM in the second ballot
Monday is letters rogatory day for me, so for most of the day, I will not be around to focus on politics.
Why do I have a feeling it's all going to kick off on Monday.
I have the last exam of my LLB on Monday. English Property Law, which might just be less surreal than a backbencher becoming PM but only, but only just!
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
— Catherine West’s stalking horse challenge is being seen as a lone wolf effort BUT it appears designed to benefit either Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner and damages Andy Burnham’s chances of becoming PM.
— As Bloomberg reported last night the Ed Miliband / Lou Haigh / Tribune faction wants “delay then Andy,” putting off a contest until Burnham is in Parliament. They favour him to Rayner.
— But the big flaw in this plan is it may incentivise Streeting and Rayner to move now before Burnham is in. All eyes are on whether Streeting and Rayner will go over the top in the coming days, perhaps after Keir Starmer’s Monday speech, which will surely never be able to meet the demands of Labour MPs.
— There is panic in the Burnham-Miliband-Haigh camp that West’s move could trigger a contest next week and hand the keys to Downing Street to either Rayner or Streeting, with Burnham excluded.
— No doubt there are 80+ MPs who want to get rid of Starmer. If West can build some momentum and get close to that it would force Streeting and Rayner and maybe others to move and make a contest happen now.
— The hope of Starmer and Burnham supporters is that most MPs will think West has not thought this through and will not want to be associated with her somewhat eccentric move. Essentially that she is the Labour version of Rehman Chishti or Adam Afriyie. One factor the other camps are weighing up is what if a more credible stalking horse joins the fray to try to get to 80 and force a contest.
— Clearly this will be the subject of intense deliberation in the Streeting and Rayner camps this weekend as they work out whether to go over the top and how to respond to Starmer’s speech next week.
— Where does it leave Burnham? He is now in a big rush to find an MP who will step down and trigger a by-election so he can have his fight with Starmer at the NEC and prove to MPs that they should wait for him. Could we see a move on that front in the coming days?
— Ironically supporters of Starmer and supporters of Burnham both want a similar thing right now: to put off a challenge next week. Labour MPs who probably overall favour Burnham might end up with a contest where he isn’t on the ballot. The Labour Party is in total chaos tonight
According to the detail on Sky, total Labour losses stands at 1,486 with 5 wards in Lewisham yet to declare, so it looks like the total Labour council losses will be just short of 1,500, maybe by a number you can count on one hand.
— Ironically supporters of Starmer and supporters of Burnham both want a similar thing right now: to put off a challenge next week. Labour MPs who probably overall favour Burnham might end up with a contest where he isn’t on the ballot. The Labour Party is in total chaos tonight
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
Not so. Once the challenge has been made then if West secures the 81 votes required it will almost certainly trigger other challengers to join in. They will also need 81 votes from the PLP but I don't see that being an issue for some of the front runners. West is a classic stalking horse.
The issue might be meeting the other criteria to stand which is five percent of constituency parties or backing from at least three affiliates comprising five percent of affiliated party membership (two of which will need to be Trade Unions). This is from a late 2025 Labour List article.
Labour might have forgotten it, but voters haven’t - the “change” they promised and campaigned upon, wasn’t just about improving the country, but also about a more mature politics, free of the scandal, corruption and backbiting of the Tory years. Their failure to deliver anything different on the latter count is, I suspect, at least as much a part of their current travails as the slow pace of improvement in the country, for which most reasonable voters expected to grant a bit of time.
The key thing is that by declaring her candidacy, following the precedent of Angela Eagle in 2016, Catherine West would prompt the NEC to open a window for nominations to be collected for any candidate, inviting more serious contenders.
This keeps being missed by commentators.
Is there a time limit on the window ?
The NEC is scheduled to meet on Tuesday 19th May, so it'll be bound to kick things off then.
In the meantime I wonder whether HMRC will shift out of their torpor in the next couple of weeks.
Labour might have forgotten it, but voters haven’t - the “change” they promised and campaigned upon, wasn’t just about improving the country, but also about a more mature politics, free of the scandal, corruption and backbiting of the Tory years. Their failure to deliver anything different on the latter count is, I suspect, at least as much a part of their current travails as the slow pace of improvement in the country, for which most reasonable voters expected to grant a bit of time.
Labour gets one reboot and if they do it properly they’ll be okay. But screw it up and it is game over.
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
Not so. Once the challenge has been made then if West secures the 81 votes required it will almost certainly trigger other challengers to join in. They will also need 81 votes from the PLP but I don't see that being an issue for some of the front runners. West is a classic stalking horse.
The issue might be meeting the other criteria to stand which is five percent of constituency parties or backing from at least three affiliates comprising five percent of affiliated party membership (two of which will need to be Trade Unions). This is from a late 2025 Labour List article.
People said that when the random ran against Corbyn. Labour leadership races just don't work the same way as Tory ones.
Says Andy Burnham cannot be PM: “I'm sorry for people who had a big plan about particular candidates who one day will be, you know, an MP and all that sort of thing… I really like Andy, but he's not here on the spot, so he can't really do it”
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
There are various possibilities but I can 100% assure you that one of them is not Keir Starmer beating Catherine West in a binary leadership contest. Seriously, no chance. Zero. I'll put a Reform poster in my window if I'm wrong.
— Catherine West’s stalking horse challenge is being seen as a lone wolf effort BUT it appears designed to benefit either Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner and damages Andy Burnham’s chances of becoming PM.
— As Bloomberg reported last night the Ed Miliband / Lou Haigh / Tribune faction wants “delay then Andy,” putting off a contest until Burnham is in Parliament. They favour him to Rayner.
— But the big flaw in this plan is it may incentivise Streeting and Rayner to move now before Burnham is in. All eyes are on whether Streeting and Rayner will go over the top in the coming days, perhaps after Keir Starmer’s Monday speech, which will surely never be able to meet the demands of Labour MPs.
— There is panic in the Burnham-Miliband-Haigh camp that West’s move could trigger a contest next week and hand the keys to Downing Street to either Rayner or Streeting, with Burnham excluded.
— No doubt there are 80+ MPs who want to get rid of Starmer. If West can build some momentum and get close to that it would force Streeting and Rayner and maybe others to move and make a contest happen now.
— The hope of Starmer and Burnham supporters is that most MPs will think West has not thought this through and will not want to be associated with her somewhat eccentric move. Essentially that she is the Labour version of Rehman Chishti or Adam Afriyie. One factor the other camps are weighing up is what if a more credible stalking horse joins the fray to try to get to 80 and force a contest.
— Clearly this will be the subject of intense deliberation in the Streeting and Rayner camps this weekend as they work out whether to go over the top and how to respond to Starmer’s speech next week.
— Where does it leave Burnham? He is now in a big rush to find an MP who will step down and trigger a by-election so he can have his fight with Starmer at the NEC and prove to MPs that they should wait for him. Could we see a move on that front in the coming days?
— Ironically supporters of Starmer and supporters of Burnham both want a similar thing right now: to put off a challenge next week. Labour MPs who probably overall favour Burnham might end up with a contest where he isn’t on the ballot. The Labour Party is in total chaos tonight
The key thing is that by declaring her candidacy, following the precedent of Angela Eagle in 2016, Catherine West would prompt the NEC to open a window for nominations to be collected for any candidate, inviting more serious contenders.
This keeps being missed by commentators.
Is there a time limit on the window ?
Two weeks after the opening of the process. During that time any contenders would have to inform the Labour Party General Secretary of their nomination.
According to the detail on Sky, total Labour losses stands at 1,486 with 5 wards in Lewisham yet to declare, so it looks like the total Labour council losses will be just short of 1,500, maybe by a number you can count on one hand.
18 seats still to lose so could be 1504 losses max.
"SKS Fans your mans lost 1500 seats please explain" incoming!
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
Not so. Once the challenge has been made then if West secures the 81 votes required it will almost certainly trigger other challengers to join in. They will also need 81 votes from the PLP but I don't see that being an issue for some of the front runners. West is a classic stalking horse.
The issue might be meeting the other criteria to stand which is five percent of constituency parties or backing from at least three affiliates comprising five percent of affiliated party membership (two of which will need to be Trade Unions). This is from a late 2025 Labour List article.
People said that when the random ran against Corbyn. Labour leadership races just don't work the same way as Tory ones.
All I am telling you is what the rules are. I make no comment on whether the challenge will be successful or not as I have no insight into the machinations of the about Party beyond what is written on here.
The point I am making is that your claim this will be Starmer vs "some fucking random" (as you so gallantly put it) is not necessarily correct as any other challenger could join in once the window has opened.
Senior MP texts to tell me that “everyone sensible” is trying to get Catherine West to withdraw. “It’s completely irresponsible”. MP also says they think Streeting allies will lend votes to West to try trigger race
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
There are various possibilities but I can 100% assure you that one of them is not Keir Starmer beating Catherine West in a binary leadership contest. Seriously, no chance. Zero. I'll put a Reform poster in my window if I'm wrong.
Typical woke lefty North Londoner speaking. Always making it about non-binary.
Senior MP texts to tell me that “everyone sensible” is trying to get Catherine West to withdraw. “It’s completely irresponsible”. MP also says they think Streeting allies will lend votes to West to try trigger race
Can Labour really replace a leader and PM without going near the unions and members? As soon as they decide to do the latter, Streeting isn’t favourite.
Senior MP texts to tell me that “everyone sensible” is trying to get Catherine West to withdraw. “It’s completely irresponsible”. MP also says they think Streeting allies will lend votes to West to try trigger race
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
There are various possibilities but I can 100% assure you that one of them is not Keir Starmer beating Catherine West in a binary leadership contest. Seriously, no chance. Zero. I'll put a Reform poster in my window if I'm wrong.
You know how the Tories thought things couldn't get worse after Boris and party gate. Then we ended up with Liz Truss. That's the path Labour are on right now. Pretty much every Tory member would turn back the clock and keep Boris hevwuee while he may not have won we wouldn't have been wiped out.
In all seriousness MPs should stop plotting and actually do nothing but think deeply over the weekend, don't even chat with each other. Then start the plotting on Monday with a clear idea of what they really want.
Of course you cannot not plot now, as others will not.
Senior MP texts to tell me that “everyone sensible” is trying to get Catherine West to withdraw. “It’s completely irresponsible”. MP also says they think Streeting allies will lend votes to West to try trigger race
Can Labour really replace a leader and PM without going near the unions and members? As soon as they decide to do the latter, Streeting isn’t favourite.
Senior MP texts to tell me that “everyone sensible” is trying to get Catherine West to withdraw. “It’s completely irresponsible”. MP also says they think Streeting allies will lend votes to West to try trigger race
West is just a stalking horse. She’ll withdraw as she said she basically wants a coronation.
I reckon coronation of Streeting seems highly likely.
Sorry but that (a coronation) is the last thing that's going to happen. If Streeting stands it'll be contested.
From the New Statesman 3 days ago:
"Angela Rayner is likely to be a decisive figure. She has let it be known she will not stand aside should Streeting launch a leadership bid before Burnham’s return to parliament. While Rayner is not hostile to Streeting on a personal level, she believes his victory would be a continuation of what she sees as the Labour right’s disastrous control of the party, which she blames for the infighting that has led it where it finds itself today. Rayner is determined to see a leader who can unite the Labour Party."
Can Labour really replace a leader and PM without going near the unions and members? As soon as they decide to do the latter, Streeting isn’t favourite.
No. They need at least some of the the Unions and Members to even get a challenge in.
If an existing MP does get it do they promise Burnham a Great Office to get him onside, or will he not care if he cannot be PM and just carp from the sidelines. Like Khan can, though not that often.
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
Not so. Once the challenge has been made then if West secures the 81 votes required it will almost certainly trigger other challengers to join in. They will also need 81 votes from the PLP but I don't see that being an issue for some of the front runners. West is a classic stalking horse.
The issue might be meeting the other criteria to stand which is five percent of constituency parties or backing from at least three affiliates comprising five percent of affiliated party membership (two of which will need to be Trade Unions). This is from a late 2025 Labour List article.
People said that when the random ran against Corbyn. Labour leadership races just don't work the same way as Tory ones.
All I am telling you is what the rules are. I make no comment on whether the challenge will be successful or not as I have no insight into the machinations of the about Party beyond what is written on here.
The point I am making is that your claim this will be Starmer vs "some fucking random" (as you so gallantly put it) is not necessarily correct as any other challenger could join in once the window has opened.
The point I'm making is that no other challengers will join. The Labour party isn't the Tory party, it's not in their nature to knife their leaders in the back like this and when it does happen I doesn't work.
West is just a stalking horse. She’ll withdraw as she said she basically wants a coronation.
I reckon coronation of Streeting seems highly likely.
Sorry but that (a coronation) is the last thing that's going to happen. If Streeting stands it'll be contested.
From the New Statesman 3 days ago:
"Angela Rayner is likely to be a decisive figure. She has let it be known she will not stand aside should Streeting launch a leadership bid before Burnham’s return to parliament. While Rayner is not hostile to Streeting on a personal level, she believes his victory would be a continuation of what she sees as the Labour right’s disastrous control of the party, which she blames for the infighting that has led it where it finds itself today. Rayner is determined to see a leader who can unite the Labour Party."
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
Not so. Once the challenge has been made then if West secures the 81 votes required it will almost certainly trigger other challengers to join in. They will also need 81 votes from the PLP but I don't see that being an issue for some of the front runners. West is a classic stalking horse.
The issue might be meeting the other criteria to stand which is five percent of constituency parties or backing from at least three affiliates comprising five percent of affiliated party membership (two of which will need to be Trade Unions). This is from a late 2025 Labour List article.
People said that when the random ran against Corbyn. Labour leadership races just don't work the same way as Tory ones.
All I am telling you is what the rules are. I make no comment on whether the challenge will be successful or not as I have no insight into the machinations of the about Party beyond what is written on here.
The point I am making is that your claim this will be Starmer vs "some fucking random" (as you so gallantly put it) is not necessarily correct as any other challenger could join in once the window has opened.
The point I'm making is that no other challengers will join. The Labour party isn't the Tory party, it's not in their nature to knife their leaders in the back like this and when it does happen I doesn't work.
I don’t think 2016 is a good guide because at that point all the serious contenders knew that Corbyn would beat them. That doesn’t apply with Starmer.
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
There are various possibilities but I can 100% assure you that one of them is not Keir Starmer beating Catherine West in a binary leadership contest. Seriously, no chance. Zero. I'll put a Reform poster in my window if I'm wrong.
You know how the Tories thought things couldn't get worse after Boris and party gate. Then we ended up with Liz Truss. That's the path Labour are on right now. Pretty much every Tory member would turn back the clock and keep Boris hevwuee while he may not have won we wouldn't have been wiped out.
He was about to spend 90 days outside Parliament due to the Privileges committee - so he couldn't have been PM.
The problem for the Tories is that they voted for truss who promised them the earth, this time round Labour need to do things in a way that doesn't allow their membership to elect their personal unicorns...
West is just a stalking horse. She’ll withdraw as she said she basically wants a coronation.
I reckon coronation of Streeting seems highly likely.
Sorry but that (a coronation) is the last thing that's going to happen. If Streeting stands it'll be contested.
From the New Statesman 3 days ago:
"Angela Rayner is likely to be a decisive figure. She has let it be known she will not stand aside should Streeting launch a leadership bid before Burnham’s return to parliament. While Rayner is not hostile to Streeting on a personal level, she believes his victory would be a continuation of what she sees as the Labour right’s disastrous control of the party, which she blames for the infighting that has led it where it finds itself today. Rayner is determined to see a leader who can unite the Labour Party."
Senior MP texts to tell me that “everyone sensible” is trying to get Catherine West to withdraw. “It’s completely irresponsible”. MP also says they think Streeting allies will lend votes to West to try trigger race
Forget cunning plans, sounds like Streeting has a cleverly plan.
West with 40 signatures isn't going to trigger an election, with 81 signatures mainly provided by Streeting, West can withdraw and let Streeting stand...
Excluding Farage and his leadership flip flopping, has any leader of a major political party who lost a GE and then resigned ever gone on to stand again for the leadership?
So, in a supposedly proportional Parliament the SNP got 45% of the seats with 33% of the votes, the 2 independence parties, SNP+Greens, saw their share of the vote fall to 41% but they have 57% of the seats, the Unionist parties got 59% of the votes but 43% of the seats and Yes is supposedly ahead of No in the polling.
West is just a stalking horse. She’ll withdraw as she said she basically wants a coronation.
I reckon coronation of Streeting seems highly likely.
Sorry but that (a coronation) is the last thing that's going to happen. If Streeting stands it'll be contested.
From the New Statesman 3 days ago:
"Angela Rayner is likely to be a decisive figure. She has let it be known she will not stand aside should Streeting launch a leadership bid before Burnham’s return to parliament. While Rayner is not hostile to Streeting on a personal level, she believes his victory would be a continuation of what she sees as the Labour right’s disastrous control of the party, which she blames for the infighting that has led it where it finds itself today. Rayner is determined to see a leader who can unite the Labour Party."
West is just a stalking horse. She’ll withdraw as she said she basically wants a coronation.
I reckon coronation of Streeting seems highly likely.
Sorry but that (a coronation) is the last thing that's going to happen. If Streeting stands it'll be contested.
From the New Statesman 3 days ago:
"Angela Rayner is likely to be a decisive figure. She has let it be known she will not stand aside should Streeting launch a leadership bid before Burnham’s return to parliament. While Rayner is not hostile to Streeting on a personal level, she believes his victory would be a continuation of what she sees as the Labour right’s disastrous control of the party, which she blames for the infighting that has led it where it finds itself today. Rayner is determined to see a leader who can unite the Labour Party."
Rayner can’t stand until HMRC finish their investigation. Burnham needs to overcome lots of hurdles to even become an MP so if things really go crazy and there ends up being a leadership challenge quickly then Labour could end up in an even worse position .
MPs from Labour’s left are expected to urge Ed Miliband to consider a leadership bid in the coming days, as Keir Starmer faced the prospect of a definite challenge from his MPs next week.
West is just a stalking horse. She’ll withdraw as she said she basically wants a coronation.
I reckon coronation of Streeting seems highly likely.
Sorry but that (a coronation) is the last thing that's going to happen. If Streeting stands it'll be contested.
From the New Statesman 3 days ago:
"Angela Rayner is likely to be a decisive figure. She has let it be known she will not stand aside should Streeting launch a leadership bid before Burnham’s return to parliament. While Rayner is not hostile to Streeting on a personal level, she believes his victory would be a continuation of what she sees as the Labour right’s disastrous control of the party, which she blames for the infighting that has led it where it finds itself today. Rayner is determined to see a leader who can unite the Labour Party."
No I think it makes Nige favourite for next PM. A leadership election against some fucking random will result in a resounding victory for Starmer and secure him until 2029. It's almost as if this is a plot devised by No. 10 to flush out traitors.
There are various possibilities but I can 100% assure you that one of them is not Keir Starmer beating Catherine West in a binary leadership contest. Seriously, no chance. Zero. I'll put a Reform poster in my window if I'm wrong.
You know how the Tories thought things couldn't get worse after Boris and party gate. Then we ended up with Liz Truss. That's the path Labour are on right now. Pretty much every Tory member would turn back the clock and keep Boris hevwuee while he may not have won we wouldn't have been wiped out.
Ah well that's true (about the Cons) but it's a slightly different point. Fwiw I think the change should be done but not rushed, and does have the potential to improve Labour's prospects.
MPs from Labour’s left are expected to urge Ed Miliband to consider a leadership bid in the coming days, as Keir Starmer faced the prospect of a definite challenge from his MPs next week.
Labour need a no-mark stalking horse like they need a hole in the head!
Can someone put a saddle on her and tell Starmer to get his act together and start behaving like a Prime Minister
Well, he's going to do a nice speech on Monday that's definitely going to prove to everyone that he's better at this stuff now.
Once Starmer emerges from the telephone box on Monday to announce the immediate introduction of a fair voting system for all elections, our application to rejoin the EU, and a wealth tax to invest in our health and social services and rebuild our national defences, he’ll become our national hero.
So, in a supposedly proportional Parliament the SNP got 45% of the seats with 33% of the votes, the 2 independence parties, SNP+Greens, saw their share of the vote fall to 41% but they have 57% of the seats, the Unionist parties got 59% of the votes but 43% of the seats and Yes is supposedly ahead of No in the polling.
Confused.com comes to Scotland.
No confusion. Losing votes and share and seats is a LANDSLIDE.
So sayeth the Swinney. Also, Stephen Flynn definitely does not want to be First Minister. No no no. Not at all.
West is just a stalking horse. She’ll withdraw as she said she basically wants a coronation.
I reckon coronation of Streeting seems highly likely.
Sorry but that (a coronation) is the last thing that's going to happen. If Streeting stands it'll be contested.
From the New Statesman 3 days ago:
"Angela Rayner is likely to be a decisive figure. She has let it be known she will not stand aside should Streeting launch a leadership bid before Burnham’s return to parliament. While Rayner is not hostile to Streeting on a personal level, she believes his victory would be a continuation of what she sees as the Labour right’s disastrous control of the party, which she blames for the infighting that has led it where it finds itself today. Rayner is determined to see a leader who can unite the Labour Party."
Rayner can’t stand until HMRC finish their investigation. Burnham needs to overcome lots of hurdles to even become an MP so if things really go crazy and there ends up being a leadership challenge quickly then Labour could end up in an even worse position .
Hang on, I think Rayner is in the clear.
Worst case scenario she took bad advice and underpaid a small amount of tax. Bad, but apparently its now ok to take 5 mil in crypto, take advice to find an excuse and then not declare it.
Whilst Farage benefits from differential rules, if he can just swat it away, so can she.
MPs from Labour’s left are expected to urge Ed Miliband to consider a leadership bid in the coming days, as Keir Starmer faced the prospect of a definite challenge from his MPs next week.
So, in a supposedly proportional Parliament the SNP got 45% of the seats with 33% of the votes, the 2 independence parties, SNP+Greens, saw their share of the vote fall to 41% but they have 57% of the seats, the Unionist parties got 59% of the votes but 43% of the seats and Yes is supposedly ahead of No in the polling.
Confused.com comes to Scotland.
No confusion. Losing votes and share and seats is a LANDSLIDE.
So sayeth the Swinney. Also, Stephen Flynn definitely does not want to be First Minister. No no no. Not at all.
You have to fight under the system that exists and the SNP won big whatever the percentages, but 'landslide' surely requires someone to get a big majority (not really possible under that system) not just be much larger than the other parties.
West is just a stalking horse. She’ll withdraw as she said she basically wants a coronation.
I reckon coronation of Streeting seems highly likely.
Sorry but that (a coronation) is the last thing that's going to happen. If Streeting stands it'll be contested.
From the New Statesman 3 days ago:
"Angela Rayner is likely to be a decisive figure. She has let it be known she will not stand aside should Streeting launch a leadership bid before Burnham’s return to parliament. While Rayner is not hostile to Streeting on a personal level, she believes his victory would be a continuation of what she sees as the Labour right’s disastrous control of the party, which she blames for the infighting that has led it where it finds itself today. Rayner is determined to see a leader who can unite the Labour Party."
So, in a supposedly proportional Parliament the SNP got 45% of the seats with 33% of the votes, the 2 independence parties, SNP+Greens, saw their share of the vote fall to 41% but they have 57% of the seats, the Unionist parties got 59% of the votes but 43% of the seats and Yes is supposedly ahead of No in the polling.
Confused.com comes to Scotland.
No confusion. Losing votes and share and seats is a LANDSLIDE.
So sayeth the Swinney. Also, Stephen Flynn definitely does not want to be First Minister. No no no. Not at all.
The SNP lost 414,127 constituency votes and 428,465 regional votes compared to the last time.
There must be a betting opportunity about when Flynn takes over. I'm guessing by the end of the current year.
MPs from Labour’s left are expected to urge Ed Miliband to consider a leadership bid in the coming days, as Keir Starmer faced the prospect of a definite challenge from his MPs next week.
My guess is that you'll lose more from commie Ed putting up taxes on high earners than you'll ever get from that bet. Probably by an order or magnitude or two.
Labour need a no-mark stalking horse like they need a hole in the head!
Can someone put a saddle on her and tell Starmer to get his act together and start behaving like a Prime Minister
Well, he's going to do a nice speech on Monday that's definitely going to prove to everyone that he's better at this stuff now.
Once Starmer emerges from the telephone box on Monday to announce the immediate introduction of a fair voting system for all elections, our application to rejoin the EU, and a wealth tax to invest in our health and social services and rebuild our national defences, he’ll become our national hero.
But first, a little more about the Chagos Archipelago...
West is just a stalking horse. She’ll withdraw as she said she basically wants a coronation.
I reckon coronation of Streeting seems highly likely.
Sorry but that (a coronation) is the last thing that's going to happen. If Streeting stands it'll be contested.
From the New Statesman 3 days ago:
"Angela Rayner is likely to be a decisive figure. She has let it be known she will not stand aside should Streeting launch a leadership bid before Burnham’s return to parliament. While Rayner is not hostile to Streeting on a personal level, she believes his victory would be a continuation of what she sees as the Labour right’s disastrous control of the party, which she blames for the infighting that has led it where it finds itself today. Rayner is determined to see a leader who can unite the Labour Party."
Comments
For The Greater Good.
Bradford has lurched to the right. Also, the parts of the district outside of the city are likely to have more clout now.
The Indy in Bingley East is ex-Labour, reelected. The others are all in Muslim wards.
*Except for the postponed ward, where one of the candidates sadly passed away. This was 3 LibDems defending.
Next year, Reform has to defend seats. Labour fightback?
I’m a bit confused. Why doesn’t the chief whip just make some stuff up about Catherine West and suspend the whip? That’s what they normally do when MPs have the audacity to speak
So if she is nominated to challenge Starmer he is almost certainly doomed even if he wins a pyrrhic victory. After Thatcher beat Meyer Heseltine challenged her the following year and rather than face humiliating defeat to Hezza in a second ballot after he got 40% of Tory MPs behind him in the first ballot she resigned and John Major was elected Tory leader and PM in the second ballot
Labour in chaos tonight: state of play
— Catherine West’s stalking horse challenge is being seen as a lone wolf effort BUT it appears designed to benefit either Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner and damages Andy Burnham’s chances of becoming PM.
— As Bloomberg reported last night the Ed Miliband / Lou Haigh / Tribune faction wants “delay then Andy,” putting off a contest until Burnham is in Parliament. They favour him to Rayner.
— But the big flaw in this plan is it may incentivise Streeting and Rayner to move now before Burnham is in. All eyes are on whether Streeting and Rayner will go over the top in the coming days, perhaps after Keir Starmer’s Monday speech, which will surely never be able to meet the demands of Labour MPs.
— There is panic in the Burnham-Miliband-Haigh camp that West’s move could trigger a contest next week and hand the keys to Downing Street to either Rayner or Streeting, with Burnham excluded.
— No doubt there are 80+ MPs who want to get rid of Starmer. If West can build some momentum and get close to that it would force Streeting and Rayner and maybe others to move and make a contest happen now.
— The hope of Starmer and Burnham supporters is that most MPs will think West has not thought this through and will not want to be associated with her somewhat eccentric move. Essentially that she is the Labour version of Rehman Chishti or Adam Afriyie. One factor the other camps are weighing up is what if a more credible stalking horse joins the fray to try to get to 80 and force a contest.
— Clearly this will be the subject of intense deliberation in the Streeting and Rayner camps this weekend as they work out whether to go over the top and how to respond to Starmer’s speech next week.
— Where does it leave Burnham? He is now in a big rush to find an MP who will step down and trigger a by-election so he can have his fight with Starmer at the NEC and prove to MPs that they should wait for him. Could we see a move on that front in the coming days?
— Ironically supporters of Starmer and supporters of Burnham both want a similar thing right now: to put off a challenge next week. Labour MPs who probably overall favour Burnham might end up with a contest where he isn’t on the ballot. The Labour Party is in total chaos tonight
Charlie Croker: Professor Peach, do you see what I'm getting at?
Professor Simon Peach: Your brawn, my brain. I'm not stupid, you know.
That would be just swell with me.
The issue might be meeting the other criteria to stand which is five percent of constituency parties or backing from at least three affiliates comprising five percent of affiliated party membership (two of which will need to be Trade Unions). This is from a late 2025 Labour List article.
I reckon coronation of Streeting seems highly likely.
In the meantime I wonder whether HMRC will shift out of their torpor in the next couple of weeks.
https://x.com/ethancroft98/status/2053182120269344917
Burnham out. I’m betting on her and Streeting.
"SKS Fans your mans lost 1500 seats please explain" incoming!
And what does he even say about Starmer? Go the Truss route and say it's a shame he 'stood down' but they also need to 180 direction?
The point I am making is that your claim this will be Starmer vs "some fucking random" (as you so gallantly put it) is not necessarily correct as any other challenger could join in once the window has opened.
https://x.com/BethRigby/status/2053180250427711609
Burnham might yet be PM - but not this time.
Of course you cannot not plot now, as others will not.
I’m a Labour member and it wouldn’t bother me.
He’s got some charisma, actually sounds normal, okay he’s London but he’s working class and actually has stuff to say.
Labour could do much worse.
From the New Statesman 3 days ago:
"Angela Rayner is likely to be a decisive figure. She has let it be known she will not stand aside should Streeting launch a leadership bid before Burnham’s return to parliament. While Rayner is not hostile to Streeting on a personal level, she believes his victory would be a continuation of what she sees as the Labour right’s disastrous control of the party, which she blames for the infighting that has led it where it finds itself today. Rayner is determined to see a leader who can unite the Labour Party."
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2026/05/angela-vs-andy-vs-wes-vs-keir
Burnham should stand at the next GE and do something with the rubble. If NOC there will be a second GE within 6 months.
Streeting is clearly the favourite.
The problem for the Tories is that they voted for truss who promised them the earth, this time round Labour need to do things in a way that doesn't allow their membership to elect their personal unicorns...
This only really applies to modern history.
Confused.com comes to Scotland.
That is something from which he cannot escape
Can someone put a saddle on her and tell Starmer to get his act together and start behaving like a Prime Minister
SKS on 1492 losses no margin for error if the Greens are to push SKS to 1500 losses
https://labourlist.org/2026/04/cabinet-league-table-april-2026-survation/
So sayeth the Swinney. Also, Stephen Flynn definitely does not want to be First Minister. No no no. Not at all.
Worst case scenario she took bad advice and underpaid a small amount of tax. Bad, but apparently its now ok to take 5 mil in crypto, take advice to find an excuse and then not declare it.
Whilst Farage benefits from differential rules, if he can just swat it away, so can she.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/09/labour-councillors-demand-starmer-resignation/
It will continue to be an issue.
Just as Rayner will never full escape her tax issues - and that's before her recent law breaking video.
I know we can't expect all politicians to have spotless back histories. But some things are permanently troublesome.
There must be a betting opportunity about when Flynn takes over. I'm guessing by the end of the current year.
A cabinet minister said: "I don’t think she’ll get the numbers, but maybe she will."
A Labour MP said: "She is a hero for doing this."