Kirklees: Lindley returns likely the only full contingent of LD councillors, their third place beating out the best placed Reform candidate by a single vote.
Will be some relief after a rough few months in that ward after a previous councillor was suspended under police investigation and subsequently died after a toxological event.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Algakirk is one of the more sensible posters here. But this ‘everyone I disagree with is Hitler’ stuff is tedious and abusing voters is no way to win them back.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
Really?
In other European countries, populist movements have mostly survived the transition away from initial leaders.
More of an issue, I would suspect, is that Farage's man management is weak, meaning the risk of fissures in his party (especially if he has only a small majority or runs a minority government) are extremely high.
Having the likes of Jenrick is helpful but to date Reform have been utterly dependent on Farage, who, as @Leon noted, is well known for his man management* skills and long term planning
* (women need not apply)
He managed to get £5 million for his future. That's good long term planning.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
One of the things Farage has been very good at is getting rid of the more unsavory elements, hence the appearance of Advance and like.
interesting side-note to the collapse of the tories in Norfolk. Rupert Lowe's 'Great Yarmouth First' candidates have won all 9 seats they have contested
Raising the interesting question of a coalition with Reform?
Reform down from last year in line with polling. PB golden rule take Labour lowest polling number and bit of shy Toryism. Overall hung parliament.
Reform UK would win 284 seats, 42 seats short of a majority. Labour would win 110 seats compared to 96 seats for the Conservatives, despite winning a smaller vote share. The Liberal Democrats would place fourth with 80 seats, followed by the SNP winning 36 seats. Plaid Cymru and the Greens are each projected to win 13 seats.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Indeed. The far right has things like paramilitary wings, and armed thugs that assault enemies. They overturn elections and end democracy. They build huge prisons and intern people without trial, those that don't get shot in cold blood. For what a far right party looks like, examine a country like Iran, or, increasingly, Putin's Russia
Farage takes dodgy donations, drinks a few pints, and suggests leaving the ECHR
Statements like @algarkirk's are ridiculous childish CRINGE. Get a fucking grip. And let's hope an actual far right ruling party doesn't come along to teach us what it actually feels like to be ruled by the "far right"
interesting side-note to the collapse of the tories in Norfolk. Rupert Lowe's 'Great Yarmouth First' candidates have won all 9 seats they have contested
Raising the interesting question of a coalition with Reform?
In Scotland, the Green constituency gains are going to have an impact on the list seats, because there will be less of a top up element for them to get based on the differential.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
One of the things Farage has been very good at is getting rid of the more unsavory elements, hence the appearance of Advance and like.
Indeed the best description of Reform is probably Populist Right, something like the Swiss People's Party rather than AfD which is much closer to the actual far right than Reform. I'd say Restore is more like AfD which places a lot of emphasis on the colour of someone's skin but in my many conversations with Reform activists it genuinely just never comes up and I've met more than most I would say.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
One of the things Farage has been very good at is getting rid of the more unsavory elements, hence the appearance of Advance and like.
But he's been very good at getting the bloody awful to join him in his tent, pissing in.
A precursor to what will happen in England in a GE? A collapse in their overall vote but holding on well in a few leafy shires?
In response to MaxPBs posts above, if we’re heading towards an American style duopoly due to FPTP, I think it’s much more likely that we end up with Labour:Reform than Greens:Conservatives. That’s why this result is at least as bad for the Conservatives as it is for Labour.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
The government houses asylum seekers in places where it is cheap to house asylum seekers.
Those hotels: they became asylum seeker accomodation because the owners couldn't make money from them being regular hotels, and because you couldn't make money converting them to homes.
If you want to house asylum seekers in Richmond you will need to pay market rates. And markets rates are going to be at least 10x as much as in depressed areas of the North West.
So, is the plan for Reform to spend massively more on housing asylum seekers than the Labour and Conservative governments spent? (Plus, won't the pull of the UK be much greater for asylum seekers if they know they're going to be housed in London, where the informal economy is strongest?)
No. The plan is to massively crash house prices in Richmond.
Is it my imagination, or is this an amazing night for Reform, and a slightly disappointing one for the Greens?
Some of the forecasts had the Greens coming in with a seat count around 1,000 - and challenging the LibDems and Labour for second place. As it is, they look likely to come in fifth.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
I'm happy for you to have a different definition of 'Far Right' to algarkirk (and me - I agree with him) but if you think Reform is anything like the 1980s Tories then you're seriously mistaken. I'm old enough to remember them. There were a few unpleasant hard right types but nobody currently in Reform would have felt at ease in the Tory party of those days.
Is it my imagination, or is this an amazing night for Reform, and a slightly disappointing one for the Greens?
Some of the forecasts had the Greens coming in with a seat count around 1,000 - and challenging the LibDems and Labour for second place. As it is, they look likely to come in fifth.
The Greens seem to have done well in certain spots. Some big city councils seem to have had a number of successes (Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield). If they sustain that momentum over the next few years it’s not inconceivable they will take control of some of them. Those are significant councils.
I don’t think they’ve had as stellar a night as they could have, but I wouldn’t say it’s been a bad night for them at all.
Is it my imagination, or is this an amazing night for Reform, and a slightly disappointing one for the Greens?
Some of the forecasts had the Greens coming in with a seat count around 1,000 - and challenging the LibDems and Labour for second place. As it is, they look likely to come in fifth.
As the many hours have passed, it has got better for Reform, rather worse for the Greens (but only because of wild expectations) and horribly worse for Labour (even grimmer than their low expectations). LDs and SNP treading water; Tories poor but could have been worse. Great night for Plaid
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Indeed. The far right has things like paramilitary wings, and armed thugs that assault enemies. They overturn elections and end democracy. They build huge prisons and intern people without trial, those that don't get shot in cold blood. For what a far right party looks like, examine a country like Iran, or, increasingly, Putin's Russia
Farage takes dodgy donations, drinks a few pints, and suggests leaving the ECHR
Statements like @algarkirk's are ridiculous childish CRINGE. Get a fucking grip. And let's hope an actual far right ruling party doesn't come along to teach us what it actually feels like to be ruled by the "far right"
From a Centrist Dad's perspective Reform are far right. Rupert Low by the way is even further to the right. It depends on one's starting perspective. Wasn't someone in Trump's Cabinet calling Starmer a Communist, or similar, last week.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
The government houses asylum seekers in places where it is cheap to house asylum seekers.
Those hotels: they became asylum seeker accomodation because the owners couldn't make money from them being regular hotels, and because you couldn't make money converting them to homes.
If you want to house asylum seekers in Richmond you will need to pay market rates. And markets rates are going to be at least 10x as much as in depressed areas of the North West.
So, is the plan for Reform to spend massively more on housing asylum seekers than the Labour and Conservative governments spent? (Plus, won't the pull of the UK be much greater for asylum seekers if they know they're going to be housed in London, where the informal economy is strongest?)
No. The plan is to massively crash house prices in Richmond.
Yeah, I get it, you house the asylum seekers there, and therefore property prices fall.
But that still requires you to find someone to rent you a hotel or ten. You're still going to be paying up. And what if the price doesn't move down? Or if the asylum seekers discover they can do arbitrage with students: they get 300 quid in cash a week, and the student gets their place in the aslyum seeker hotel.
Is it my imagination, or is this an amazing night for Reform, and a slightly disappointing one for the Greens?
Some of the forecasts had the Greens coming in with a seat count around 1,000 - and challenging the LibDems and Labour for second place. As it is, they look likely to come in fifth.
Sounds reasonable. Still good, but they have some years to go before they are pushing at Reform levels.
Meanwhile, the Tories should win more seats total than they will lose, which is positive right? Right?
Is it my imagination, or is this an amazing night for Reform, and a slightly disappointing one for the Greens?
Some of the forecasts had the Greens coming in with a seat count around 1,000 - and challenging the LibDems and Labour for second place. As it is, they look likely to come in fifth.
Poor night for Greens but not amazing for Reform, less than 30% NEV and while forecast most seats in a hung parliament not a majority
The London Mayoral election is going to be interesting, after all this.
Labour would I think be favoured to retain it but the Tories could give them a good run for their money with the right candidate (note: not Susan Hall).
If I were Laila Cunningham I’d be feeling a bit gloomy right now.
Reform down from last year in line with polling. PB golden rule take Labour lowest polling number and bit of shy Toryism. Overall hung parliament.
Reform UK would win 284 seats, 42 seats short of a majority. Labour would win 110 seats compared to 96 seats for the Conservatives, despite winning a smaller vote share. The Liberal Democrats would place fourth with 80 seats, followed by the SNP winning 36 seats. Plaid Cymru and the Greens are each projected to win 13 seats.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Indeed. The far right has things like paramilitary wings, and armed thugs that assault enemies. They overturn elections and end democracy. They build huge prisons and intern people without trial, those that don't get shot in cold blood. For what a far right party looks like, examine a country like Iran, or, increasingly, Putin's Russia
Farage takes dodgy donations, drinks a few pints, and suggests leaving the ECHR
Statements like @algarkirk's are ridiculous childish CRINGE. Get a fucking grip. And let's hope an actual far right ruling party doesn't come along to teach us what it actually feels like to be ruled by the "far right"
From a Centrist Dad's perspective Reform are far right. Rupert Low by the way is even further to the right. It depends on one's starting perspective. Wasn't someone in Trump's Cabinet calling Starmer a Communist, or similar, last week.
Which just goes to show the Centrist Dads are stupid twerps. Which, to be fair, is no big surprise
If Reform are "far right", with their evil policy of - checks notes - deporting foreign criminals, how do the Centrist Dads describe the regime in Tehran?
Is it my imagination, or is this an amazing night for Reform, and a slightly disappointing one for the Greens?
Some of the forecasts had the Greens coming in with a seat count around 1,000 - and challenging the LibDems and Labour for second place. As it is, they look likely to come in fifth.
Poor night for Greens but not amazing for Reform, less than 30% NEV and while forecast most seats in a hung parliament not a majority
This is the attitude that gives Reform and Green a free hand. They have both done incredibly well. The Parties AND their leaders need to be called out. They have had a free ride, particularly Farage.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Indeed. The far right has things like paramilitary wings, and armed thugs that assault enemies. They overturn elections and end democracy. They build huge prisons and intern people without trial, those that don't get shot in cold blood. For what a far right party looks like, examine a country like Iran, or, increasingly, Putin's Russia
Farage takes dodgy donations, drinks a few pints, and suggests leaving the ECHR
Statements like @algarkirk's are ridiculous childish CRINGE. Get a fucking grip. And let's hope an actual far right ruling party doesn't come along to teach us what it actually feels like to be ruled by the "far right"
From a Centrist Dad's perspective Reform are far right. Rupert Low by the way is even further to the right. It depends on one's starting perspective. Wasn't someone in Trump's Cabinet calling Starmer a Communist, or similar, last week.
Which just goes to show the Centrist Dads are stupid twerps. Which, to be fair, is no big surprise
If Reform are "far right", with their evil policy of - checks notes - deporting foreign criminals, how do the Centrist Dads describe the regime in Tehran?
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Indeed. The far right has things like paramilitary wings, and armed thugs that assault enemies. They overturn elections and end democracy. They build huge prisons and intern people without trial, those that don't get shot in cold blood. For what a far right party looks like, examine a country like Iran, or, increasingly, Putin's Russia
Farage takes dodgy donations, drinks a few pints, and suggests leaving the ECHR
Statements like @algarkirk's are ridiculous childish CRINGE. Get a fucking grip. And let's hope an actual far right ruling party doesn't come along to teach us what it actually feels like to be ruled by the "far right"
From a Centrist Dad's perspective Reform are far right. Rupert Low by the way is even further to the right. It depends on one's starting perspective. Wasn't someone in Trump's Cabinet calling Starmer a Communist, or similar, last week.
Which just goes to show the Centrist Dads are stupid twerps. Which, to be fair, is no big surprise
If Reform are "far right", with their evil policy of - checks notes - deporting foreign criminals, how do the Centrist Dads describe the regime in Tehran?
The regime in Tehran is a religious fundamentalist death cult. Give your head a wobble.
Is it my imagination, or is this an amazing night for Reform, and a slightly disappointing one for the Greens?
Some of the forecasts had the Greens coming in with a seat count around 1,000 - and challenging the LibDems and Labour for second place. As it is, they look likely to come in fifth.
Poor night for Greens but not amazing for Reform, less than 30% NEV and while forecast most seats in a hung parliament not a majority
This is the attitude that gives Reform and Green a free hand. They have both done incredibly well. The Parties AND their leaders need to be called out. They have had a free ride, particularly Farage.
They haven't, Reform would have been hoping for an NEV giving them an overall majority not reliant on Kemi.
The Greens would have wanted to beat Labour and have failed to do so.
They both won the protest vote but neither are heading clearly for a big mandate for power
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Indeed. The far right has things like paramilitary wings, and armed thugs that assault enemies. They overturn elections and end democracy. They build huge prisons and intern people without trial, those that don't get shot in cold blood. For what a far right party looks like, examine a country like Iran, or, increasingly, Putin's Russia
Farage takes dodgy donations, drinks a few pints, and suggests leaving the ECHR
Statements like @algarkirk's are ridiculous childish CRINGE. Get a fucking grip. And let's hope an actual far right ruling party doesn't come along to teach us what it actually feels like to be ruled by the "far right"
From a Centrist Dad's perspective Reform are far right. Rupert Low by the way is even further to the right. It depends on one's starting perspective. Wasn't someone in Trump's Cabinet calling Starmer a Communist, or similar, last week.
Which just goes to show the Centrist Dads are stupid twerps. Which, to be fair, is no big surprise
If Reform are "far right", with their evil policy of - checks notes - deporting foreign criminals, how do the Centrist Dads describe the regime in Tehran?
The regime in Tehran is a religious fundamentalist death cult. Give your head a wobble.
It is Islamofascism. It is very definitely "far right", but with added religious gibberish
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Indeed. The far right has things like paramilitary wings, and armed thugs that assault enemies. They overturn elections and end democracy. They build huge prisons and intern people without trial, those that don't get shot in cold blood. For what a far right party looks like, examine a country like Iran, or, increasingly, Putin's Russia
Farage takes dodgy donations, drinks a few pints, and suggests leaving the ECHR
Statements like @algarkirk's are ridiculous childish CRINGE. Get a fucking grip. And let's hope an actual far right ruling party doesn't come along to teach us what it actually feels like to be ruled by the "far right"
From a Centrist Dad's perspective Reform are far right. Rupert Low by the way is even further to the right. It depends on one's starting perspective. Wasn't someone in Trump's Cabinet calling Starmer a Communist, or similar, last week.
Which just goes to show the Centrist Dads are stupid twerps. Which, to be fair, is no big surprise
If Reform are "far right", with their evil policy of - checks notes - deporting foreign criminals, how do the Centrist Dads describe the regime in Tehran?
The regime in Tehran is a religious fundamentalist death cult. Give your head a wobble.
It is Islamofascism. It is very definitely "far right", but with added religious gibberish
They aren't very keen on private enterprise or property rights, so why aren't they hard left?
Reform down from last year in line with polling. PB golden rule take Labour lowest polling number and bit of shy Toryism. Overall hung parliament.
Reform UK would win 284 seats, 42 seats short of a majority. Labour would win 110 seats compared to 96 seats for the Conservatives, despite winning a smaller vote share. The Liberal Democrats would place fourth with 80 seats, followed by the SNP winning 36 seats. Plaid Cymru and the Greens are each projected to win 13 seats.
Update from Greenwich. As I suspected Greens are taking seats in Greenwich itself. At the moment it's Lab 18, Green 9, Tories 3, Reform 1. 28 needed for overall control and 14 to go. Looks like NOC or narrow Labour control.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
The government houses asylum seekers in places where it is cheap to house asylum seekers.
Those hotels: they became asylum seeker accomodation because the owners couldn't make money from them being regular hotels, and because you couldn't make money converting them to homes.
If you want to house asylum seekers in Richmond you will need to pay market rates. And markets rates are going to be at least 10x as much as in depressed areas of the North West.
So, is the plan for Reform to spend massively more on housing asylum seekers than the Labour and Conservative governments spent? (Plus, won't the pull of the UK be much greater for asylum seekers if they know they're going to be housed in London, where the informal economy is strongest?)
No. The plan is to massively crash house prices in Richmond.
Yeah, I get it, you house the asylum seekers there, and therefore property prices fall.
But that still requires you to find someone to rent you a hotel or ten. You're still going to be paying up. And what if the price doesn't move down? Or if the asylum seekers discover they can do arbitrage with students: they get 300 quid in cash a week, and the student gets their place in the aslyum seeker hotel.
Under a law passed Sunak (I think), Planning Uplift on land purchase by government can be omitted. That is, if the government (local or national) wants to buy some land for development, they don't have to pay the full market price for land with planning permission, if they don't want to. Needs the Home Sec to sign off, IIRC.
So buy some fields on the edge of Richmond for the price of agricultural land. Install a pile of portacabin type accommodation - you can stack portacabins in a frame. Often done for building sites in London. Insanely ugly.
Would end up being an expensive nonsense. But "Own The Libtards".
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Algakirk is one of the more sensible posters here. But this ‘everyone I disagree with is Hitler’ stuff is tedious and abusing voters is no way to win them back.
I don't think it is abusing voters to point out that Reform's policies, such as deporting immigrants who have the legal right to remain in Britain, is by any objective measure a far-right policy.
Similarly, the idea that Farage's corrupt personality cult is at all like the Conservative Party of the 80s is absurd.
Obviously the failures of the established parties to do what they say they will do - such as the Tories persistent failure to hit their own tens of thousands net migration target, the Lib Dems broken pledge over tuition fees, or Labour's failure to have any substantive plan to change anything - will understandably provoke voters to look to more extreme alternatives. I don't blame the voters for that, but they shouldn't kid themselves about what they are voting for.
The London Mayoral election is going to be interesting, after all this.
Labour would I think be favoured to retain it but the Tories could give them a good run for their money with the right candidate (note: not Susan Hall).
If I were Laila Cunningham I’d be feeling a bit gloomy right now.
And she's a terrible candidate - a prettier version of Susan Hall.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Algakirk is one of the more sensible posters here. But this ‘everyone I disagree with is Hitler’ stuff is tedious and abusing voters is no way to win them back.
I don't think it is abusing voters to point out that Reform's policies, such as deporting immigrants who have the legal right to remain in Britain, is by any objective measure a far-right policy.
Similarly, the idea that Farage's corrupt personality cult is at all like the Conservative Party of the 80s is absurd.
Obviously the failures of the established parties to do what they say they will do - such as the Tories persistent failure to hit their own tens of thousands net migration target, the Lib Dems broken pledge over tuition fees, or Labour's failure to have any substantive plan to change anything - will understandably provoke voters to look to more extreme alternatives. I don't blame the voters for that, but they shouldn't kid themselves about what they are voting for.
A substantial minority of Reform -maybe 40%- is right wing 80s Conservatives.
But there's also 40% of the party that is left wing 80s Labour voters.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Indeed. The far right has things like paramilitary wings, and armed thugs that assault enemies. They overturn elections and end democracy. They build huge prisons and intern people without trial, those that don't get shot in cold blood. For what a far right party looks like, examine a country like Iran, or, increasingly, Putin's Russia
Farage takes dodgy donations, drinks a few pints, and suggests leaving the ECHR
Statements like @algarkirk's are ridiculous childish CRINGE. Get a fucking grip. And let's hope an actual far right ruling party doesn't come along to teach us what it actually feels like to be ruled by the "far right"
From a Centrist Dad's perspective Reform are far right. Rupert Low by the way is even further to the right. It depends on one's starting perspective. Wasn't someone in Trump's Cabinet calling Starmer a Communist, or similar, last week.
Which just goes to show the Centrist Dads are stupid twerps. Which, to be fair, is no big surprise
If Reform are "far right", with their evil policy of - checks notes - deporting foreign criminals, how do the Centrist Dads describe the regime in Tehran?
The regime in Tehran is a religious fundamentalist death cult. Give your head a wobble.
It is Islamofascism. It is very definitely "far right", but with added religious gibberish
They aren't very keen on private enterprise or property rights, so why aren't they hard left?
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
As to details, I think we shall have to wait and see. In part I am with you, and have been arguing for months on PB that Reform would govern as nationalist social democrats.
However, the case for a loose term like 'far right' is in the unclarity about these sorts of question:
Have Reform given any indication that in their quasi ICE plans they intend fully to adhere to the rule of law and the decisions of courts? Do they intend that everyone will be treated with fairness, justice and dignity? If they are not far right, why do they keep indicating that they don't plan to let courts, tribunals and justice get in the way of mass deportations? Are they totally committed to the separation of powers and UK treaty obligations? Are there racial, religious and ethnic undertones and overtones to their policies?
If you can show me Reform's passion for the rule of law and the separation of powers I will concede the 'far right' label.
By the way I am an unwoke traditionalist social conservative who, until 2024, voted Tory for 50 years and voted for Brexit.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Indeed. The far right has things like paramilitary wings, and armed thugs that assault enemies. They overturn elections and end democracy. They build huge prisons and intern people without trial, those that don't get shot in cold blood. For what a far right party looks like, examine a country like Iran, or, increasingly, Putin's Russia
Farage takes dodgy donations, drinks a few pints, and suggests leaving the ECHR
Statements like @algarkirk's are ridiculous childish CRINGE. Get a fucking grip. And let's hope an actual far right ruling party doesn't come along to teach us what it actually feels like to be ruled by the "far right"
From a Centrist Dad's perspective Reform are far right. Rupert Low by the way is even further to the right. It depends on one's starting perspective. Wasn't someone in Trump's Cabinet calling Starmer a Communist, or similar, last week.
Which just goes to show the Centrist Dads are stupid twerps. Which, to be fair, is no big surprise
If Reform are "far right", with their evil policy of - checks notes - deporting foreign criminals, how do the Centrist Dads describe the regime in Tehran?
From the intellectual leader of the nationalist right, apparently the correct description is:
"They’re all dead. The next regime is mostly dead. And the third regime, we’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before. It’s a whole different group of people."
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Algakirk is one of the more sensible posters here. But this ‘everyone I disagree with is Hitler’ stuff is tedious and abusing voters is no way to win them back.
I don't think it is abusing voters to point out that Reform's policies, such as deporting immigrants who have the legal right to remain in Britain, is by any objective measure a far-right policy.
Similarly, the idea that Farage's corrupt personality cult is at all like the Conservative Party of the 80s is absurd.
Obviously the failures of the established parties to do what they say they will do - such as the Tories persistent failure to hit their own tens of thousands net migration target, the Lib Dems broken pledge over tuition fees, or Labour's failure to have any substantive plan to change anything - will understandably provoke voters to look to more extreme alternatives. I don't blame the voters for that, but they shouldn't kid themselves about what they are voting for.
A substantial minority of Reform -maybe 40%- is right wing 80s Conservatives.
But there's also 40% of the party that is left wing 80s Labour voters.
Someone is going to be disappointed.
Yup.
That’s the case with these disparate coalitions. It will be similar with the Greens. Gaza loons v Home Counties eco NIMBYs
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Indeed. The far right has things like paramilitary wings, and armed thugs that assault enemies. They overturn elections and end democracy. They build huge prisons and intern people without trial, those that don't get shot in cold blood. For what a far right party looks like, examine a country like Iran, or, increasingly, Putin's Russia
Farage takes dodgy donations, drinks a few pints, and suggests leaving the ECHR
Statements like @algarkirk's are ridiculous childish CRINGE. Get a fucking grip. And let's hope an actual far right ruling party doesn't come along to teach us what it actually feels like to be ruled by the "far right"
From a Centrist Dad's perspective Reform are far right. Rupert Low by the way is even further to the right. It depends on one's starting perspective. Wasn't someone in Trump's Cabinet calling Starmer a Communist, or similar, last week.
Which just goes to show the Centrist Dads are stupid twerps. Which, to be fair, is no big surprise
If Reform are "far right", with their evil policy of - checks notes - deporting foreign criminals, how do the Centrist Dads describe the regime in Tehran?
Reform down from last year in line with polling. PB golden rule take Labour lowest polling number and bit of shy Toryism. Overall hung parliament.
Reform UK would win 284 seats, 42 seats short of a majority. Labour would win 110 seats compared to 96 seats for the Conservatives, despite winning a smaller vote share. The Liberal Democrats would place fourth with 80 seats, followed by the SNP winning 36 seats. Plaid Cymru and the Greens are each projected to win 13 seats.
So Kemi would hold the balance of power
Would she do a deal with Farage?
I expect she would vote bill by bill and maybe abstain on a confidence vote
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
Algakirk is one of the more sensible posters here. But this ‘everyone I disagree with is Hitler’ stuff is tedious and abusing voters is no way to win them back.
I don't think it is abusing voters to point out that Reform's policies, such as deporting immigrants who have the legal right to remain in Britain, is by any objective measure a far-right policy.
Similarly, the idea that Farage's corrupt personality cult is at all like the Conservative Party of the 80s is absurd.
Obviously the failures of the established parties to do what they say they will do - such as the Tories persistent failure to hit their own tens of thousands net migration target, the Lib Dems broken pledge over tuition fees, or Labour's failure to have any substantive plan to change anything - will understandably provoke voters to look to more extreme alternatives. I don't blame the voters for that, but they shouldn't kid themselves about what they are voting for.
A substantial minority of Reform -maybe 40%- is right wing 80s Conservatives.
But there's also 40% of the party that is left wing 80s Labour voters.
Someone is going to be disappointed.
Yeah. I'm not sure the Reformers on Wigan Council are ardent Thatcherites. And if they are they won't be broadcasting it.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
The government houses asylum seekers in places where it is cheap to house asylum seekers.
Those hotels: they became asylum seeker accomodation because the owners couldn't make money from them being regular hotels, and because you couldn't make money converting them to homes.
If you want to house asylum seekers in Richmond you will need to pay market rates. And markets rates are going to be at least 10x as much as in depressed areas of the North West.
So, is the plan for Reform to spend massively more on housing asylum seekers than the Labour and Conservative governments spent? (Plus, won't the pull of the UK be much greater for asylum seekers if they know they're going to be housed in London, where the informal economy is strongest?)
No. The plan is to massively crash house prices in Richmond.
Yeah, I get it, you house the asylum seekers there, and therefore property prices fall.
But that still requires you to find someone to rent you a hotel or ten. You're still going to be paying up. And what if the price doesn't move down? Or if the asylum seekers discover they can do arbitrage with students: they get 300 quid in cash a week, and the student gets their place in the aslyum seeker hotel.
Under a law passed Sunak (I think), Planning Uplift on land purchase by government can be omitted. That is, if the government (local or national) wants to buy some land for development, they don't have to pay the full market price for land with planning permission, if they don't want to. Needs the Home Sec to sign off, IIRC.
So buy some fields on the edge of Richmond for the price of agricultural land. Install a pile of portacabin type accommodation - you can stack portacabins in a frame. Often done for building sites in London. Insanely ugly.
Would end up being an expensive nonsense. But "Own The Libtards".
Are there any fields on the edge of Richmond? There is the meadow at Petersham I suppose. Or maybe we could put it in the Old Deer Park. Or the Green. Or Kew Gardens.
Comments
Will be some relief after a rough few months in that ward after a previous councillor was suspended under police investigation and subsequently died after a toxological event.
What's that? A five-a-side game you say?
Reform 27
Tory 20
Labour 15
Lib 14
Green 14
Reform down from last year in line with polling. PB golden rule take Labour lowest polling number and bit of shy Toryism. Overall hung parliament.
Reform UK would win 284 seats, 42 seats short of a majority. Labour would win 110 seats compared to 96 seats for the Conservatives, despite winning a smaller vote share. The Liberal Democrats would place fourth with 80 seats, followed by the SNP winning 36 seats. Plaid Cymru and the Greens are each projected to win 13 seats.
Sort of the Andy Burnham situation writ small.
Farage takes dodgy donations, drinks a few pints, and suggests leaving the ECHR
Statements like @algarkirk's are ridiculous childish CRINGE. Get a fucking grip. And let's hope an actual far right ruling party doesn't come along to teach us what it actually feels like to be ruled by the "far right"
https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/26088555.norfolk-local-elections-2026-latest-updates-results/
Missed what green was.
They are on 40/84 with 2 to declare that will probably go 1 LD 1 Ref
In response to MaxPBs posts above, if we’re heading towards an American style duopoly due to FPTP, I think it’s much more likely that we end up with Labour:Reform than Greens:Conservatives. That’s why this result is at least as bad for the Conservatives as it is for Labour.
Wakefield taking an absolute aeon to continue with proceedings.
Con really needed gains there.
Kuennsberg is in her element on the BBC.
Her favourite party winning and her least favourite getting smashed!
Tories seem to be doing OK under the circumstances. Kemi survives!
Some of the forecasts had the Greens coming in with a seat count around 1,000 - and challenging the LibDems and Labour for second place. As it is, they look likely to come in fifth.
I don’t think they’ve had as stellar a night as they could have, but I wouldn’t say it’s been a bad night for them at all.
I haven't yet checked Mebyon Kernow
But that still requires you to find someone to rent you a hotel or ten. You're still going to be paying up. And what if the price doesn't move down? Or if the asylum seekers discover they can do arbitrage with students: they get 300 quid in cash a week, and the student gets their place in the aslyum seeker hotel.
Meanwhile, the Tories should win more seats total than they will lose, which is positive right? Right?
Labour would I think be favoured to retain it but the Tories could give them a good run for their money with the right candidate (note: not Susan Hall).
If I were Laila Cunningham I’d be feeling a bit gloomy right now.
(Where the feck is Adur???)
If Reform are "far right", with their evil policy of - checks notes - deporting foreign criminals, how do the Centrist Dads describe the regime in Tehran?
(Plaid 36%, Reform 27%, Tory 17%).
The Greens would have wanted to beat Labour and have failed to do so.
They both won the protest vote but neither are heading clearly for a big mandate for power
Which have six seats as this is all up election.
Labour third. Labour leader loses seat to Reform.
https://x.com/tynewearelects/status/2052786415969145042?s=61
So buy some fields on the edge of Richmond for the price of agricultural land. Install a pile of portacabin type accommodation - you can stack portacabins in a frame. Often done for building sites in London. Insanely ugly.
Would end up being an expensive nonsense. But "Own The Libtards".
Tories would be Sir Graham Brady's trade mark post bag would already be overflowing.
Labour third. Labour leader loses seat to Reform.
https://x.com/tynewearelects/status/2052786415969145042?s=61
Similarly, the idea that Farage's corrupt personality cult is at all like the Conservative Party of the 80s is absurd.
Obviously the failures of the established parties to do what they say they will do - such as the Tories persistent failure to hit their own tens of thousands net migration target, the Lib Dems broken pledge over tuition fees, or Labour's failure to have any substantive plan to change anything - will understandably provoke voters to look to more extreme alternatives. I don't blame the voters for that, but they shouldn't kid themselves about what they are voting for.
But there's also 40% of the party that is left wing 80s Labour voters.
Someone is going to be disappointed.
However, the case for a loose term like 'far right' is in the unclarity about these sorts of question:
Have Reform given any indication that in their quasi ICE plans they intend fully to adhere to the rule of law and the decisions of courts? Do they intend that everyone will be treated with fairness, justice and dignity? If they are not far right, why do they keep indicating that they don't plan to let courts, tribunals and justice get in the way of mass deportations? Are they totally committed to the separation of powers and UK treaty obligations? Are there racial, religious and ethnic undertones and overtones to their policies?
If you can show me Reform's passion for the rule of law and the separation of powers I will concede the 'far right' label.
By the way I am an unwoke traditionalist social conservative who, until 2024, voted Tory for 50 years and voted for Brexit.
"They’re all dead. The next regime is mostly dead. And the third regime, we’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before. It’s a whole different group of people."
That’s the case with these disparate coalitions. It will be similar with the Greens. Gaza loons v Home Counties eco NIMBYs
Powerful, continuous nationalism - flags, slogans, symbols everywhere
Disdain for human rights - abuses rationalised away through fear
Enemies as unifying scapegoat - a common foe binds the nation
Supremacy of the military - glamourised, lavishly funded
Rampant sexism - male dominance, rigid gender roles enforced
Controlled mass media - direct or indirect, especially in wartime
Obsession with national security - fear as the motivational tool
Religion and government intertwined - faith weaponised by the state
Corporate power protected - business and government as power elite
Labour power suppressed - unions curtailed or eliminated
Disdain for intellectuals and the arts - academia and free expression attacked
Obsession with crime and punishment - police given near-limitless powers
Rampant cronyism and corruption - rule by a self-appointing clique
Fraudulent elections - sham votes, smears, suppression, manipulation
It seems to me that Iran fulfils nearly all of those. Other contenders are North Korea and Russia. THAT is the far right. Not Nigel bleedin' Farage
And if they are they won't be broadcasting it.
So far Con +7. So they need another 3 gains.
Got to be odds on a Green-Lib Dem coalition to run the Toon.
Heaven help you. But I’m not sure Labour, since Nick Forbes, were any better.
At this rate McGuinness will only have 1 Labour council to deal with !!
I wish they had more because their allotted colour is a lovely sensual pink
But Palestine ones are fine.