Looks like the SNP losing fairly badly across Edinburgh: Southern to Labour, Northern to Lib Dems and Central maybe green.
Any idea why?
My guess is partly an aversion to the horror show of indyref2, but I confess Scottish national politics is as opaque to me in a way Camden ain't
Is there local stuff? Badly run city?
It looks like a mixed night for the SNP: poor performance in Edinburgh, and some of the islands; but a very strong one in Shetland, which has -historically- been a LibDem stronghold.
Jock Curtice just said Lib Dem won list vote in Shetland. Clear candidate issues, good candidate for SNP, poor one for LD
This is Reform doing to Labour in the whole UK what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland
Calm down dear! These are just mid term local elections. Reform are winning just 30% of the vote. This will decline significantly as we approach a GE.
Having said that, these elections are very poor for Labour. They seriously need a new leader, but is there anyone obvious to replace SKS. Probably not. I guess this is just another example of the state of play in British politics - the calibre of our politicians is down in the toilet.
"This [Reform vote] will decline significantly as we approach a GE."
You have absolutely no firm idea if this will happen. No one does. Pure hopecasting
The immediate result of the locals will be to give Reform more social acceptability. Before Starmer's latest Mandelson troubles, Labour were actually doing quite a good job of making Reform support socially unacceptable. This not only gives Reform a shot in the arm of social proof, it also blunts Labour's attack efforts because strident Reform attacks in the wake of the locals would be seen as telling voters they are wrong.
Greenwich going quite for Labour so far. 13 Lab, 1 Ref, 0 Green (though a few near misses). Most of the action, so far, though, has been in the hinterlands.
Interesting and surprising. I was expecting a Green takeover in Lewisham but those results suggest maybe not.
This is Reform doing to Labour in the whole UK what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland
Calm down dear! These are just mid term local elections. Reform are winning just 30% of the vote. This will decline significantly as we approach a GE.
Having said that, these elections are very poor for Labour. They seriously need a new leader, but is there anyone obvious to replace SKS. Probably not. I guess this is just another example of the state of play in British politics - the calibre of our politicians is down in the toilet.
"This [Reform vote] will decline significantly as we approach a GE."
You have absolutely no firm idea if this will happen. No one does. Pure hopecasting
The immediate result of the locals will be to give Reform more social acceptability. Before Starmer's latest Mandelson troubles, Labour were actually doing quite a good job of making Reform support socially unacceptable. This not only gives Reform a shot in the arm of social proof, it also blunts Labour's attack efforts because strident Reform attacks in the wake of the locals would be seen as telling voters they are wrong.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
Any howling would come from Reform types moaning about asylum seekers being housed in “expensive posh areas that ordinary Brits can’t afford”.
Will it still be a posh, expensive area when Nige puts 80,000 asylum seekers and illegals there?
Yes. And the Daily Mail will absolutely moan about it.
Richmond would still be posh and expensive if Putin dropped 3 thermonuclear devices on it. It was one of very few LA areas to see virtually no house price falls in the early 1990s recession.
This is Reform doing to Labour in the whole UK what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland
Calm down dear! These are just mid term local elections. Reform are winning just 30% of the vote. This will decline significantly as we approach a GE.
Having said that, these elections are very poor for Labour. They seriously need a new leader, but is there anyone obvious to replace SKS. Probably not. I guess this is just another example of the state of play in British politics - the calibre of our politicians is down in the toilet.
The only way Labour could push the Reform vote back down (short of Farage imploding) would be by embracing McSweeney's strategy of delivering on things like leaving the ECHR and genuinely putting the interests of those voters first, but it's almost impossible to imagine that happening now.
I don't see how they do that without pushing the same number or more voters to the Greens though? There's no strategy for Labour that wins them back the working class voters and holds onto lefty types plus winning some portion back from the Greens. Those two parts of the Labour coalition are no longer compatible. In the Blair years it was easy to buy off the working classes with welfare and subsidies but there's no money left for that now.
Looks like the SNP losing fairly badly across Edinburgh: Southern to Labour, Northern to Lib Dems and Central maybe green.
Any idea why?
My guess is partly an aversion to the horror show of indyref2, but I confess Scottish national politics is as opaque to me in a way Camden ain't
Is there local stuff? Badly run city?
The SNP have always been weaker in Edinburgh than many other places, but their overwhelming strength nationally made that less obvious.
Now that they're losing so many votes compared with the elections under Salmond and Sturgeon, we get to see the areas that are less favourable to them.
Swinney was SNP leader once before, and did badly enough that Salmond returned, so a loss of support under his leadership is in line with the form book.
Greenwich going quite for Labour so far. 13 Lab, 1 Ref, 0 Green (though a few near misses). Most of the action, so far, though, has been in the hinterlands.
Interesting and surprising. I was expecting a Green takeover in Lewisham but those results suggest maybe not.
And now 3 Tories (two holds and a gain from Lab).
Again, the proviso is no results from Greenwich itself, which is where I'd expect the Greens to do best.
Reform 12 (+12) Green 6 (+3) Con 3 (-3) Ind 3 (+1) LD 0 (-5) Lab 0 (-8)
Lib Dems now on the board, but only 2/3 seats in Cleckheaton, which has split.
LDs going backwards in quite a few of their remaining more traditionally Labour areas, like Hull and struggling here.
In Almondbury they were nobbled by Reform due to a 15% Green vote share, despite being the incumbents.
Nearing half-time biscuits in Kirklees with 33/69 seats counted:
Reform 13 (+13) Green 6 (+3) Con 3 (-4) Ind 9 (+5, 3 Muslim Community, 3 Wider Left Community, 3 traditional localist) LD 2 (-6) Lab 0 (-11)
Labour remaining hopes in Ashbrow, Dalton (very varied demographics) and Colne Valley West (some hipsters, but maybe not enough to deny Reform). More Greens in Crosland and a few Tory defences, plus more Inds.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
Any howling would come from Reform types moaning about asylum seekers being housed in “expensive posh areas that ordinary Brits can’t afford”.
Will it still be a posh, expensive area when Nige puts 80,000 asylum seekers and illegals there?
Yes. And the Daily Mail will absolutely moan about it.
Richmond would still be posh and expensive if Putin dropped 3 thermonuclear devices on it. It was one of very few LA areas to see virtually no house price falls in the early 1990s recession.
It's one of the most beautiful urban areas in the entire world, partly thanks to the council having the good sense to rebuild in neo-Georgian style, on Richmond Riverside, rather than erecting another modernist horror. Bravo Quinlan Terry
I always feel for Americans who love Ted Lasso (set in Richmond) who must imagine that all of Britain is kinda like Richmond, and then they come here and see the reality is somewhat different
..The leaders of Kirklees Council's Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat groups have now all lost their seats today. Kirklees' Labour group leader Carole Pattison is managing a smile, despite the Greens and Reform UK ripping through the red-rosetted ranks she took into local election battle. Pattison will remain group leader until a Labour meeting on Sunday, but it's unclear if there will be a Kirklees Council Labour group to lead as the party is yet to win a single seat...
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
Any howling would come from Reform types moaning about asylum seekers being housed in “expensive posh areas that ordinary Brits can’t afford”.
Will it still be a posh, expensive area when Nige puts 80,000 asylum seekers and illegals there?
Yes. And the Daily Mail will absolutely moan about it.
Richmond would still be posh and expensive if Putin dropped 3 thermonuclear devices on it. It was one of very few LA areas to see virtually no house price falls in the early 1990s recession.
It's one of the most beautiful urban areas in the entire world, partly thanks to the council having the good sense to rebuild in neo-Georgian style, on Richmond Riverside, rather than erecting another modernist horror. Bravo Quinlan Terry
I always feel for Americans who love Ted Lasso (set in Richmond) who must imagine that all of Britain is kinda like Richmond, and then they come here and see the reality is somewhat different
As I have said before, some family friends from Switzerland tried to drive to Stratford and ended up in Stafford.
Labour down 13 seats in Birmingham after 34 of 101.
The Conservatives have won eight seats, Reform UK have seven, Labour have six, the Greens have five, the Liberal Democrats three and there are five independents.
See most Tory seats were in your neck of the woods.
Druids Heath must have changed a bit since I was around there.
There weren't many socialists in Wythall and Hollywood when I was there. Maypole and Druids Heath are just down the road. Some nice houses around the back towards Kings Norton. Isn't Cocksmoor Woods golf course close by?
BBC and John Curtice just forecast SNP will NOT win a Holyrood majority
Good, but still running things.
There is little difference between what a Labour Scottish government or an SNP government would do domestically, the difference was on indyref2 and the SNP have failed to win a mandate for that
BBC currently showing 6 Labour seats in Wales with more results to come so looks like they’ve avoided the worst predictions (I mean, they’re on 6 seats in Wales, so that’s bad enough, but you catch my drift).
BBC currently showing 6 Labour seats in Wales with more results to come so looks like they’ve avoided the worst predictions (I mean, they’re on 6 seats in Wales, so that’s bad enough, but you catch my drift).
Ten won't be a million miles off reality. Pretty dreadful, but like me many, I voted Plaid for the extra constituency seat for Plaid off Reform.
Matt Goodwin on BBC now. He's very clever but he's too abrasive. He needs to dial down the stridency or he will never prosper in politics
He’ll continue to become more abrasive over time, because that’s what the algorithm is rewarding. I’d put a lot of his journey of the last few years down to social media engagement effects. Like many (including Tice and Polanski) his online audience is becoming more and more American.
Labour seems to have held up (relatively) in the capital in a way they just haven't anywhere else frankly. Big cities outside London astonishingly poor for Labour
Labour seems to have held up (relatively) in the capital in a way they just haven't anywhere else frankly. Big cities outside London astonishingly poor for Labour
Likewise the Conservatives. I was expecting a Greenwash but so far limited chlorophyll in the voting supply.
Apparently the new Mayor of Hackney has won a seat on the Council. However, she can't, as mayor, also be a councillor, so there's a by-election lined up.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
Any howling would come from Reform types moaning about asylum seekers being housed in “expensive posh areas that ordinary Brits can’t afford”.
Will it still be a posh, expensive area when Nige puts 80,000 asylum seekers and illegals there?
Yes. And the Daily Mail will absolutely moan about it.
Richmond would still be posh and expensive if Putin dropped 3 thermonuclear devices on it. It was one of very few LA areas to see virtually no house price falls in the early 1990s recession.
It's one of the most beautiful urban areas in the entire world, partly thanks to the council having the good sense to rebuild in neo-Georgian style, on Richmond Riverside, rather than erecting another modernist horror. Bravo Quinlan Terry
I always feel for Americans who love Ted Lasso (set in Richmond) who must imagine that all of Britain is kinda like Richmond, and then they come here and see the reality is somewhat different
As I have said before, some family friends from Switzerland tried to drive to Stratford and ended up in Stafford.
Reminds me of a situation at Stansted Airport train station.
Platform 1: Liverpool Lime Street Platform 2: London Liverpool Street
I tried to help a poor tourist with no English. They didn’t stand a chance. I wonder where they ended up.
Labour seems to have held up (relatively) in the capital in a way they just haven't anywhere else frankly. Big cities outside London astonishingly poor for Labour
Labour not beating the allegations that they are a purely London party tbh. I thought that was a bit unfair previously but under Starmer it's definitely noticeable. They shouldn't elect a Londoner as party leader in future and I say that as a Londoner.
Bit like the Dems avoiding Californians for their POTUS nominee.
Fewer PB Centrist Dads claiming that Farage is a total and perpetual loser, I note
When you step back, what he has done - AGAIN - is quite astonishing
Reform will be running a lot of councils after today.
The exposure will begin.
You've spelt ruining wrong.
I remember all this hysteria after the locals last year. I have now lived in a Ref County Council area for a year. It's difficult to identify any obvious improvements, but it's also difficult to identify any change at-all. I've certainly not noticed anything negative either.
They've managed to increase council tax by less than the national average, which is a small win I suppose.
All the doom and gloom that everything will fall apart in weeks has been complete bunkum. The biggest local government "scandal" in my area involves the Labour run District Council (which will almost certainly go Reform if any more elections occur before it is abolished), where they are trying with unseamly haste and with no particularly convincing reasoning to sell off the Town Hall rather cheaply to a property developer who one suspects has been very "friendly" towards a number of the councillors.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
The government houses asylum seekers in places where it is cheap to house asylum seekers.
Those hotels: they became asylum seeker accomodation because the owners couldn't make money from them being regular hotels, and because you couldn't make money converting them to homes.
If you want to house asylum seekers in Richmond you will need to pay market rates. And markets rates are going to be at least 10x as much as in depressed areas of the North West.
So, is the plan for Reform to spend massively more on housing asylum seekers than the Labour and Conservative governments spent? (Plus, won't the pull of the UK be much greater for asylum seekers if they know they're going to be housed in London, where the informal economy is strongest?)
Sizeable victory for Reform in first Coventry ward, winner at almost 2,000 votes which is a huge chunky gain. Mind you probably nowhere better for Reform than Binley, Coventry tbh.
Sizeable victory for Reform in first Coventry ward, winner at almost 2,000 votes which is a huge chunky gain. Mind you probably nowhere better for Reform than Binley, Coventry tbh.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
The government houses asylum seekers in places where it is cheap to house asylum seekers.
Those hotels: they became asylum seeker accomodation because the owners couldn't make money from them being regular hotels, and because you couldn't make money converting them to homes.
If you want to house asylum seekers in Richmond you will need to pay market rates. And markets rates are going to be at least 10x as much as in depressed areas of the North West.
So, is the plan for Reform to spend massively more on housing asylum seekers than the Labour and Conservative governments spent? (Plus, won't the pull of the UK be much greater for asylum seekers if they know they're going to be housed in London, where the informal economy is strongest?)
I don't think they intend to give them actual accommodation, just bus them there and leave is probably the strategy. Other countries use it to great success at making it undesirable to stay there tbf.
I may resign my Labour membership. The fact the cabinet are allowing this to continue is making me think I should either vote Tory next time or spoil my ballot.
Don't be ridiculous. Labour under Starmer have been disappointing but remember who was the party of Austerity, Brexit and Boris Johnson Covid capers.
That’s was then. This is now. You should make your judgement based on the facts on the ground rather than refighting the last war
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
Really?
In other European countries, populist movements have mostly survived the transition away from initial leaders.
More of an issue, I would suspect, is that Farage's man management is weak, meaning the risk of fissures in his party (especially if he has only a small majority or runs a minority government) are extremely high.
Labour down 13 seats in Birmingham after 34 of 101.
The Conservatives have won eight seats, Reform UK have seven, Labour have six, the Greens have five, the Liberal Democrats three and there are five independents.
See most Tory seats were in your neck of the woods.
Druids Heath must have changed a bit since I was around there.
There weren't many socialists in Wythall and Hollywood when I was there. Maypole and Druids Heath are just down the road. Some nice houses around the back towards Kings Norton. Isn't Cocksmoor Woods golf course close by?
Cocks Moor is Maypole way, yes. It’s close. I used to have a friend who lived in the flats in Druids Heath. Never struck me as Tory territory or potential ones but that’s over 20 years back.
I used to work at Clifford steering wheel place and four of us used to play at cocks moor on POETS day every week.
Tories losing close to half their seats. Kemi's take: "The Conservatives are coming back!"
She is deluded.
If you live in Westminster or Barnet or Harlow they are, Tories won/winning all 3 with significant gains
And if you live in East Anglia? Or Sussex?
Harlow is in East Anglia
Barely!
A pedant would note: East Anglia is where East Angles settled. Essex is where the East Saxons settled. Essex is not East Anglia, is it Essex. East Anglia is Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire, possibly including also Huntingdonshire according to taste.
If HYUFD from his Essex hideout however has a view on this he is welcome to counter this!
BBC site still ridiculously persisting with not posting any results till the whole Council is declared. Why oh why do they do this? Sky manage.
They are, weirdly, updating some in real time (though you have to click through to the specific page for that council to actually work out that’s what they’re doing) but for others they’re simply not updating them at all.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
Any howling would come from Reform types moaning about asylum seekers being housed in “expensive posh areas that ordinary Brits can’t afford”.
Will it still be a posh, expensive area when Nige puts 80,000 asylum seekers and illegals there?
Yes. And the Daily Mail will absolutely moan about it.
Richmond would still be posh and expensive if Putin dropped 3 thermonuclear devices on it. It was one of very few LA areas to see virtually no house price falls in the early 1990s recession.
It's one of the most beautiful urban areas in the entire world, partly thanks to the council having the good sense to rebuild in neo-Georgian style, on Richmond Riverside, rather than erecting another modernist horror. Bravo Quinlan Terry
I always feel for Americans who love Ted Lasso (set in Richmond) who must imagine that all of Britain is kinda like Richmond, and then they come here and see the reality is somewhat different
As I have said before, some family friends from Switzerland tried to drive to Stratford and ended up in Stafford.
Reminds me of a situation at Stansted Airport train station.
Platform 1: Liverpool Lime Street Platform 2: London Liverpool Street
I tried to help a poor tourist with no English. They didn’t stand a chance. I wonder where they ended up.
They can solve that by reverting Liverpool Street to the original name: Bishopsgate.
To call this anything but a disaster for Labour would be under-egging it.
It's bigger than that, it's large. I mean, if you've got a history book at home, take it out, throw it in the bin, it's worthless. The history books, now, will have to be rewritten.
Matt Goodwin on BBC now. He's very clever but he's too abrasive. He needs to dial down the stridency or he will never prosper in politics
He’ll continue to become more abrasive over time, because that’s what the algorithm is rewarding. I’d put a lot of his journey of the last few years down to social media engagement effects. Like many (including Tice and Polanski) his online audience is becoming more and more American.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
The government houses asylum seekers in places where it is cheap to house asylum seekers.
Those hotels: they became asylum seeker accomodation because the owners couldn't make money from them being regular hotels, and because you couldn't make money converting them to homes.
If you want to house asylum seekers in Richmond you will need to pay market rates. And markets rates are going to be at least 10x as much as in depressed areas of the North West.
So, is the plan for Reform to spend massively more on housing asylum seekers than the Labour and Conservative governments spent? (Plus, won't the pull of the UK be much greater for asylum seekers if they know they're going to be housed in London, where the informal economy is strongest?)
I don't think they intend to give them actual accommodation, just bus them there and leave is probably the strategy. Other countries use it to great success at making it undesirable to stay there tbf.
Wait?
Won't that make the UK incredibly popular for asylum seekers? You'll be dumped in London, where you will rapidly be able to find work in the informal economy washing dishes, delivering for Deliveroo, etc.
And the asylum seekers will just head to East London, Hillingdon, etc. where they will find people who share their language and where they can sleep on a floor for 20 quid a night.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Sturgeon was already there. The prerequisite to him standing again in 2004 was that she would be deputy, as a joint ticket. Effectively they ran together as a junior/senios partnership, to nullify any other potential challengers. 10 years on, there was no one big enough in the party willing to take her on for leadership at the time, or they were all happy with her to take the job unchallenged
The BBC forecast of 41-46 seats for Plaid Cymru in Wales is strong. Perhaps there's a chance Plaid will govern as a minority instead of in a coalition with Labour.
The BBC forecast of 41-46 seats for Plaid Cymru in Wales is strong. Perhaps there's a chance Plaid will given as a minority instead of in a coalition with Labour.
No coalition. C and S quite possibly. The association with Starmer Labour is not acceptable.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
The BBC forecast of 41-46 seats for Plaid Cymru in Wales is strong. Perhaps there's a chance Plaid will given as a minority instead of in a coalition with Labour.
I think Labour will step away from government. I expect it’ll be a similar arrangement as the Scottish Parliament where a Plaid minority will run things and probably get support issue-by-issue.
As an aside, I'm surprised Reform is so enamoured with crypto. After all, it seems like a really easy way to ensure that in an increasingly cashless society, you can pay people without a trail.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
So all the other parties agree - Ricmond is where all the asylum seekers are going to be housed.
Oh, the howling...
The government houses asylum seekers in places where it is cheap to house asylum seekers.
Those hotels: they became asylum seeker accomodation because the owners couldn't make money from them being regular hotels, and because you couldn't make money converting them to homes.
If you want to house asylum seekers in Richmond you will need to pay market rates. And markets rates are going to be at least 10x as much as in depressed areas of the North West.
So, is the plan for Reform to spend massively more on housing asylum seekers than the Labour and Conservative governments spent? (Plus, won't the pull of the UK be much greater for asylum seekers if they know they're going to be housed in London, where the informal economy is strongest?)
I don't think they intend to give them actual accommodation, just bus them there and leave is probably the strategy. Other countries use it to great success at making it undesirable to stay there tbf.
Wait?
Won't that make the UK incredibly popular for asylum seekers? You'll be dumped in London, where you will rapidly be able to find work in the informal economy washing dishes, delivering for Deliveroo, etc.
And the asylum seekers will just head to East London, Hillingdon, etc. where they will find people who share their language and where they can sleep on a floor for 20 quid a night.
You are taking this too seriously. The policy is to pretend that there are quick fixes and that they are on the side of reform voters to gain power.
Here in Camden, and I'm hearing in Brent too, the seats the Greens were targeting (and likewise Labour were fighting hard to retain), they didn't win, but they did win surprise seats elsewhere.
In my ward, which had been 2 Lab/1 Grn, and we all expected to go Green, the result was no change! All the incumbents re-elected.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
No not really. Why should I bother about a political party's constitution? I was never bothered about the Labour Party being run by the Unions, but it bothered a lot of people
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
Really?
In other European countries, populist movements have mostly survived the transition away from initial leaders.
More of an issue, I would suspect, is that Farage's man management is weak, meaning the risk of fissures in his party (especially if he has only a small majority or runs a minority government) are extremely high.
Having the likes of Jenrick is helpful but to date Reform have been utterly dependent on Farage, who, as @Leon noted, is well known for his man management* skills and long term planning
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
Definitely looking like he stays for another year at least.
I think the consequence of this is that it will be that much harder for a new leader to turn things around when Starmer does eventually go.
I think one of the things that has hurt the Tories is the knowledge that the party made Liz Truss PM. It will hurt Labour long term if they leave Starmer to fester in place.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
Really?
In other European countries, populist movements have mostly survived the transition away from initial leaders.
More of an issue, I would suspect, is that Farage's man management is weak, meaning the risk of fissures in his party (especially if he has only a small majority or runs a minority government) are extremely high.
Having the likes of Jenrick is helpful but to date Reform have been utterly dependent on Farage, who, as @Leon noted, is well known for his man management* skills and long term planning
* (women need not apply)
Oh, the list of people Farage's has fallen out with is massive.
And people have projected onto Reform (as they did the LDs in 2010) exactly what they want to see. And it's an unstable coalition between the regulators and the deregulators.
A small majority or minority government could implode rapidly. With @Leon denouncing them from hour seven as insufficiently right wing.
Independent - 11 Conservative - 2 Labour - 1 Liberal Democrat - 4 Green - 2 Reform UK - 19
Reform one short
Any idea how Reformy the indies are?
They’re not. They’re mostly the centre left lot who used to run the council as liberals and LibDems, before the coalition; nowadays they’re fairly centrist non party political folk. With one exception, who did a deal with the Tories last time in hope of a job. He’s the risk - but if he dallied with Reform he’d be taking g a huge gamble
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
It's a fair point and certainly doable, though there is also risk on the Tory left/liberal wing in that approach, particularly if the Lib Dems wake up, smell the coffee and get a decent leader.
Labour can squeeze Green and LD, probably, in a GE. Particularly if either Reform, a Reform-lite Tory party or a pact between the two look like serious contenders to win.
Don't get me wrong, I do think Labour are fucked, under current leadership at least. But probably, at worst, in the sense of a terrible defeat similar to the Tories in 2024. The Tories can come back, but they also could, potentially, be replace dby Reform. It's existential in a way that it probably isn't for Labour. Tories have a better chance of being in government than Labour after the next GE, but they also (imho) have a higher chance than Labour of not being a major party (i.e. neither in government nor Opposition). One or other of Con and Ref have to fail, they have to have some kind of agreement, or they split the vote horribly and potentially let Labour through as a minority - depending on how split the left vote is too.
Reform without Farage is a busted flush.
The Tories just need to hold on
People said that about the Nats and Salmond. Then Sturgeon showed up
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
Doesn’t it bother you that Reform isn’t a proper political party where you can actually remove the leader . There’s no mechanism to remove Farage and he could run around no 10 with his pants on his head and couldn’t be ousted !
Misleading. Farage as PM can be removed by two time honoured ways: failing to have the confidence of the house, and losing a general election. The internal things of party organisation as long as they are within the law are not among our constitutional safeguards. Nor should they be. If voters are daft enough to put him there in 2029, fair play to him we shall have to rely on our traditional safeguards.
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
I'm sorry but Reform aren't the far right. Like at all. They're social conservatives and nationalists but absolutely not far right. The BNP and EDL were far right, Reform is what the Tories were in the 80s but slightly more socially conservative and slightly less free market favourable.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.
interesting side-note to the collapse of the tories in Norfolk. Rupert Lowe's 'Great Yarmouth First' candidates have won all 9 seats they have contested
Comments
Richmond would still be posh and expensive if Putin dropped 3 thermonuclear devices on it. It was one of very few LA areas to see virtually no house price falls in the early 1990s recession.
Now that they're losing so many votes compared with the elections under Salmond and Sturgeon, we get to see the areas that are less favourable to them.
Swinney was SNP leader once before, and did badly enough that Salmond returned, so a loss of support under his leadership is in line with the form book.
Reform 13 (+13)
Green 6 (+3)
Con 3 (-4)
Ind 9 (+5, 3 Muslim Community, 3 Wider Left Community, 3 traditional localist)
LD 2 (-6)
Lab 0 (-11)
Labour remaining hopes in Ashbrow, Dalton (very varied demographics) and Colne Valley West (some hipsters, but maybe not enough to deny Reform). More Greens in Crosland and a few Tory defences, plus more Inds.
I always feel for Americans who love Ted Lasso (set in Richmond) who must imagine that all of Britain is kinda like Richmond, and then they come here and see the reality is somewhat different
Kirklees' Labour group leader Carole Pattison is managing a smile, despite the Greens and Reform UK ripping through the red-rosetted ranks she took into local election battle.
Pattison will remain group leader until a Labour meeting on Sunday, but it's unclear if there will be a Kirklees Council Labour group to lead as the party is yet to win a single seat...
63% in Ilkley reported.
Labour minus 36 seats
Kemi's best results in London and Scotland it seems today
Oh deary me
I was expecting a Greenwash but so far limited chlorophyll in the voting supply.
Platform 1: Liverpool Lime Street
Platform 2: London Liverpool Street
I tried to help a poor tourist with no English. They didn’t stand a chance. I wonder where they ended up.
Close between Tories and Labour for third in Wales
Bit like the Dems avoiding Californians for their POTUS nominee.
They've managed to increase council tax by less than the national average, which is a small win I suppose.
All the doom and gloom that everything will fall apart in weeks has been complete bunkum. The biggest local government "scandal" in my area involves the Labour run District Council (which will almost certainly go Reform if any more elections occur before it is abolished), where they are trying with unseamly haste and with no particularly convincing reasoning to sell off the Town Hall rather cheaply to a property developer who one suspects has been very "friendly" towards a number of the councillors.
The Tories just need to hold on
Those hotels: they became asylum seeker accomodation because the owners couldn't make money from them being regular hotels, and because you couldn't make money converting them to homes.
If you want to house asylum seekers in Richmond you will need to pay market rates. And markets rates are going to be at least 10x as much as in depressed areas of the North West.
So, is the plan for Reform to spend massively more on housing asylum seekers than the Labour and Conservative governments spent? (Plus, won't the pull of the UK be much greater for asylum seekers if they know they're going to be housed in London, where the informal economy is strongest?)
Why oh why do they do this?
Sky manage.
One of Farage's jobs in the next few years is to find some successors, and then they can really take over
In other European countries, populist movements have mostly survived the transition away from initial leaders.
More of an issue, I would suspect, is that Farage's man management is weak, meaning the risk of fissures in his party (especially if he has only a small majority or runs a minority government) are extremely high.
I used to work at Clifford steering wheel place and four of us used to play at cocks moor on POETS day every week.
If HYUFD from his Essex hideout however has a view on this he is welcome to counter this!
Incredibly odd.
Won't that make the UK incredibly popular for asylum seekers? You'll be dumped in London, where you will rapidly be able to find work in the informal economy washing dishes, delivering for Deliveroo, etc.
And the asylum seekers will just head to East London, Hillingdon, etc. where they will find people who share their language and where they can sleep on a floor for 20 quid a night.
10 years on, there was no one big enough in the party willing to take her on for leadership at the time, or they were all happy with her to take the job unchallenged
https://x.com/atticrahman/status/2052657554572849343?s=61
Wait until you see the regional list results.
Oh, the irony.
In my ward, which had been 2 Lab/1 Grn, and we all expected to go Green, the result was no change! All the incumbents re-elected.
Con now has 4 constituencies in Scotland
Definitely looking like he stays for another year at least.
Labour council leaders in Sunderland, Gateshead and Newcastle have now all lost their seats to Reform
https://x.com/tynewearelects/status/2052773773640655292?s=61
* (women need not apply)
he has about 26% support. he can only become PM if the 74% others contest each other instead of combating the far right.
And I never preorder games. But I absolutely loved Hitman.
I think one of the things that has hurt the Tories is the knowledge that the party made Liz Truss PM. It will hurt Labour long term if they leave Starmer to fester in place.
And people have projected onto Reform (as they did the LDs in 2010) exactly what they want to see. And it's an unstable coalition between the regulators and the deregulators.
A small majority or minority government could implode rapidly. With @Leon denouncing them from hour seven as insufficiently right wing.
It's stupid shit like this which gets people to vote Reform in the first place. Calling people who vote for Reform thick, ugly, far right or fascist isn't going to win them back however much it makes you feel good about yourself.