"...The conclusion "Reform won the seat from Lab therefore biggest vote swing is Lab to Reform" does not follow from this pattern. There are multiple vote flows here: Lab to Grn, Lab to abstain, Lab to Ref, Con to Ref, abstain to Ref...Lab to Ref is only one part of this, not typically the largest."
It's literal cope from Labour supporters and boosters online. They're trying desperately to claim that Labour losing hundreds of seats to Reform is a disaster for the Tories really.
The split Labour/Green vote is going to be a car crash in a general.
Ahem.
Late last month I had discussions with some people who used to work in the Westminster village and when discussing both the immediate future and the long term future they proposed a suggestion that startled me.
Their prediction is that in the next eighteen months or so if the polls remain roughly where they are now then the political discussions will turn to pacts and formal alliances, the only question is which side will propose it first, the Greens/Labour/Lib Dems or Reform/The Tories.
The trigger might even be this week’s local elections when the limits of first past the post are exposed, where for example in traditional Tory areas might wake up with Green councillors thank to a split vote between the Tories and Reform. Reform’s detention centre policies might also be a trigger for the centre-left. If one bloc starts forming an alliance then the other one will too.
It's becoming clear that this will be the narrative pushed by Labour supporters over the next few weeks, it's the security blanket and you can see them latching onto it already.
It's not so much a security blanket as a faint glimmer of hope, I suspect.
And it's not entirely unreasonable to speculate what might happen if there is some swingback (and improvement of turnout by their supporters) into the next general election. In five party politics the margins are pretty tight in a lot of places... and you get mad results on occasion.
Of course, it's just as possible you're right about the Labour to Reform defection of the "working class", in which case it little matters what Labour do, other than their best to govern with a small amount of competence.
But your declaration that they have to decide immediately whether to tack left or right is as tendentious as anyone else's particular take.
Tory hold in Galloway and West Dumfries, Finlay Carson got back in by 1599 votes. Likely that Emma Harper (SNP) won't get back into Holyrood due to her list placing
"...The conclusion "Reform won the seat from Lab therefore biggest vote swing is Lab to Reform" does not follow from this pattern. There are multiple vote flows here: Lab to Grn, Lab to abstain, Lab to Ref, Con to Ref, abstain to Ref...Lab to Ref is only one part of this, not typically the largest."
It's literal cope from Labour supporters and boosters online. They're trying desperately to claim that Labour losing hundreds of seats to Reform is a disaster for the Tories really.
Rob Ford is Politics Professor, University of Manchester. John Curtice is Politics Professor, University of Strathclyde. And member of the Royal Statistical Society
"...The conclusion "Reform won the seat from Lab therefore biggest vote swing is Lab to Reform" does not follow from this pattern. There are multiple vote flows here: Lab to Grn, Lab to abstain, Lab to Ref, Con to Ref, abstain to Ref...Lab to Ref is only one part of this, not typically the largest."
It's literal cope from Labour supporters and boosters online. They're trying desperately to claim that Labour losing hundreds of seats to Reform is a disaster for the Tories really.
Rob Ford is Politics Professor, University of Manchester. John Curtice is Politics Professor, University of Strathclyde. And member of the Royal Statistical Society
Academic lefties who can't bear the thought of Labour being consigned to the dustbin of history.
"...The conclusion "Reform won the seat from Lab therefore biggest vote swing is Lab to Reform" does not follow from this pattern. There are multiple vote flows here: Lab to Grn, Lab to abstain, Lab to Ref, Con to Ref, abstain to Ref...Lab to Ref is only one part of this, not typically the largest."
It's literal cope from Labour supporters and boosters online. They're trying desperately to claim that Labour losing hundreds of seats to Reform is a disaster for the Tories really.
Rob Ford is Politics Professor, University of Manchester. John Curtice is Politics Professor, University of Strathclyde. And member of the Royal Statistical Society
Ah, lefty woke academics, you say?
I'm holding out for Matt Goodwin's take
ETA: just seen Max's post, posted a moment before mine, apparently (but not seen by me at that point)
"...The conclusion "Reform won the seat from Lab therefore biggest vote swing is Lab to Reform" does not follow from this pattern. There are multiple vote flows here: Lab to Grn, Lab to abstain, Lab to Ref, Con to Ref, abstain to Ref...Lab to Ref is only one part of this, not typically the largest."
It's literal cope from Labour supporters and boosters online. They're trying desperately to claim that Labour losing hundreds of seats to Reform is a disaster for the Tories really.
Rob Ford is Politics Professor, University of Manchester. John Curtice is Politics Professor, University of Strathclyde. And member of the Royal Statistical Society
Academic lefties who can't bear the thought of Labour being consigned to the dustbin of history.
More specifically, they can't bear the thought that a lot of Labour people are Reform people, and the party itself has lost touch with them.
It's becoming clear that this will be the narrative pushed by Labour supporters over the next few weeks, it's the security blanket and you can see them latching onto it already.
It's not so much a security blanket as a faint glimmer of hope, I suspect.
And it's not entirely unreasonable to speculate what might happen if there is some swingback (and improvement of turnout by their supporters) into the next general election. In five party politics the margins are pretty tight in a lot of places... and you get mad results on occasion.
Of course, it's just as possible you're right about the Labour to Reform defection of the "working class", in which case it little matters what Labour do, other than their best to govern with a small amount of competence.
But your declaration that they have to decide immediately whether to tack left or right is as tendentious as anyone else's particular take.
But it's a very faint glimmer of hope. This is the British people saying "OK, all the others have failed, we will take a risk on Reform, at least they will get a grip on immigration, asylum, deportation, etc"
Is that mood likely to dramatically change between now and the next GE? I believe that is unlikely, not impossible, but unlikely. It needs Labour to radically improve the economy (how?) AND suddenly become appealing. It also needs problems with crime/migration/terror/Islamism to all dwindle away
That's quite a tall order
But a week is a long time, and all that, and three years is a millennium
It's becoming clear that this will be the narrative pushed by Labour supporters over the next few weeks, it's the security blanket and you can see them latching onto it already.
It's not so much a security blanket as a faint glimmer of hope, I suspect.
And it's not entirely unreasonable to speculate what might happen if there is some swingback (and improvement of turnout by their supporters) into the next general election. In five party politics the margins are pretty tight in a lot of places... and you get mad results on occasion.
Of course, it's just as possible you're right about the Labour to Reform defection of the "working class", in which case it little matters what Labour do, other than their best to govern with a small amount of competence.
But your declaration that they have to decide immediately whether to tack left or right is as tendentious as anyone else's particular take.
I didn't say that they had to immediately do anything, just that by doing nothing they risk losing both sides of their voter coalition.
And looking at the above result, it definitely isn't Tory to Reform, it's Labour just collapsing into the other three parties completely. The idea that all of those 18% of Reform came from the Tories but there were enough former Labour voters to push them back over their previous result and add another 7% is just extremely unlikely. The likelier scenario is that Labour are losing votes to both Reform and the Greens everywhere and in some places it's more to one or the other but fundamentally it's a transfer from Labour.
What I think we've seen elsewhere is in solidly Tory places there is still a leakage of Tory votes to Reform but what was previously a flood is now closer to a trickle and I think in other places it is reversing.
"...The conclusion "Reform won the seat from Lab therefore biggest vote swing is Lab to Reform" does not follow from this pattern. There are multiple vote flows here: Lab to Grn, Lab to abstain, Lab to Ref, Con to Ref, abstain to Ref...Lab to Ref is only one part of this, not typically the largest."
It's literal cope from Labour supporters and boosters online. They're trying desperately to claim that Labour losing hundreds of seats to Reform is a disaster for the Tories really.
Rob Ford is Politics Professor, University of Manchester. John Curtice is Politics Professor, University of Strathclyde. And member of the Royal Statistical Society
Academic lefties who can't bear the thought of Labour being consigned to the dustbin of history.
More specifically, they can't bear the thought that a lot of Labour people are Reform people, and the party itself has lost touch with them.
Even more specifically, the data they have gathered, by great effort, across a number of wards, shows this to be false. But why let facts get in the way of a bullshit narrative?
(My own feeling is that the Lab -> Reform transfer is of course a real thing, but happened a long time ago and probably via Johnson's Tories to a large extent and driven by Brexit. Those people were already mostly lost to Labour last time these seats were up.)
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
Who is giving the Tories 20% NEV. Is that confirmed?
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
Who is giving the Tories 20% NEV. Is that confirmed?
"...The conclusion "Reform won the seat from Lab therefore biggest vote swing is Lab to Reform" does not follow from this pattern. There are multiple vote flows here: Lab to Grn, Lab to abstain, Lab to Ref, Con to Ref, abstain to Ref...Lab to Ref is only one part of this, not typically the largest."
It's literal cope from Labour supporters and boosters online. They're trying desperately to claim that Labour losing hundreds of seats to Reform is a disaster for the Tories really.
Rob Ford is Politics Professor, University of Manchester. John Curtice is Politics Professor, University of Strathclyde. And member of the Royal Statistical Society
Academic lefties who can't bear the thought of Labour being consigned to the dustbin of history.
More specifically, they can't bear the thought that a lot of Labour people are Reform people, and the party itself has lost touch with them.
Do we have any news from Aberdeen? Hearing rumours of a crossover, involving Flynn
The leader of the SNP in the Westminster (UK) Parliament, Stephen Flynn MP, has won a seat in the Holyrood (Scottish) Parliament, taking the constituency of Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine and becoming Stephen Flynn MSP
BBC are reporting that ITV(!) suggest that Labour may be down to 4-5 seats in the Senedd.
That must be expectations management, surely?
If it eventuates, it will be one of the most remarkable election results in British history. Something akin to that Canadian election when the Canadian Tories went down to 2 MPs
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
Who is giving the Tories 20% NEV. Is that confirmed?
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
Who is giving the Tories 20% NEV. Is that confirmed?
Rallings and Thrasher on Sky.
How do they work out an NEV when many votes haven't been counted?
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
Who is giving the Tories 20% NEV. Is that confirmed?
Rallings and Thrasher on Sky.
How do they work out an NEV when many votes haven't been counted?
It’s done on a section of seats that are most representative for a GE not the final overall numbers .
Do we have any news from Aberdeen? Hearing rumours of a crossover, involving Flynn
The leader of the SNP in the Westminster (UK) Parliament, Stephen Flynn MP, has won a seat in the Holyrood (Scottish) Parliament, taking the constituency of Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine and becoming Stephen Flynn MSP
Labour are being destroyed - all around the country
If they have a heartland, where is it? Scotland, lol. Northern England? Nope, that's Reform, Wales, hahah they are down to about zero seats
London, I suppose, but even there they are now struggling, attacked from all sides, losing the Jewish vote, the Muslim vote, the anyone-with-a-brain vote
Khan will find it difficult to win another mayoralty if the Tories can find a decent candidate
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
Who is giving the Tories 20% NEV. Is that confirmed?
Rallings and Thrasher on Sky.
How do they work out an NEV when many votes haven't been counted?
It's modelled based on constituencies being made up of specific council wards iirc. I think the numbers will be finalised in a few hours though.
Kilburn: was 3 Labour, now 2 Green/1 Labour. The Greens' first gains in Camden. The battle is now on for who is the second largest party after Labour: Green or LibDem.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
Who is giving the Tories 20% NEV. Is that confirmed?
Rallings and Thrasher on Sky.
Have we got a full read out?
Just preliminary but I'm sure they'll release the full model in the next few days.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
Who is giving the Tories 20% NEV. Is that confirmed?
Rallings and Thrasher on Sky.
How do they work out an NEV when many votes haven't been counted?
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
Do we have any news from Aberdeen? Hearing rumours of a crossover, involving Flynn
The leader of the SNP in the Westminster (UK) Parliament, Stephen Flynn MP, has won a seat in the Holyrood (Scottish) Parliament, taking the constituency of Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine and becoming Stephen Flynn MSP
BBC are reporting that ITV(!) suggest that Labour may be down to 4-5 seats in the Senedd.
ITV, meanwhile, are quoting Sky, who are reporting GB News, who are quoting a Mirror journalist, who is taking her info from a tweet by someone who heard it from his plumber?
A city that has lectured on the evils of Populism for the last ten years voting Green en-masse. Turns out it's only right-Populism they dislike. Shocker.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
Badenoch reminds me of Ed Milliband. Both appeared a bit weird, to be conceived in lab in party HQ, and appealing to a core party group. Both talked a lot about how tough and clever they were and how they mastered policy. Both somehow conspired to lose seats after a major defeat.
BBC are reporting that ITV(!) suggest that Labour may be down to 4-5 seats in the Senedd.
ITV, meanwhile, are quoting Sky, who are reporting GB News, who are quoting a Mirror journalist, who is taking her info from a tweet by someone who heard it from his plumber?
Is Newcastle going to set a new record? Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected. Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
If you mean large city then possibly not, but if you mean council then Richmond already did that overnight (all LD).
Ah. Fair enough. Btw. Half time in Newcastle (counters having a well deserved break). Scores on doors.
A city that has lectured on the evils of Populism for the last ten years voting Green en-masse. Turns out it's only right-Populism they dislike. Shocker.
Conservatives hold Frognal: lots of incumbents holding on here.
Frognal is very Jewish. This result is unsurprising after Kemi's admirable speeches on anti-Semitism
The Jewish vote is now as solidly Tory as the C of E vote used to be
Indeed. And of course Boris was also very popular with Jewish voters - remember that video when he went to that bakery in Golders Green. And last week Kemi made that stirring statement, on TV, silencing some horrible anti-Semite
I am glad Kemi is - it seems - going to survive. For that speech alone she deserves a chance to continue rebuilding
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
So, the Tories write off the 72 Lib Dem seats, do they not need any of them?
"...The conclusion "Reform won the seat from Lab therefore biggest vote swing is Lab to Reform" does not follow from this pattern. There are multiple vote flows here: Lab to Grn, Lab to abstain, Lab to Ref, Con to Ref, abstain to Ref...Lab to Ref is only one part of this, not typically the largest."
It's literal cope from Labour supporters and boosters online. They're trying desperately to claim that Labour losing hundreds of seats to Reform is a disaster for the Tories really.
Rob Ford is Politics Professor, University of Manchester. John Curtice is Politics Professor, University of Strathclyde. And member of the Royal Statistical Society
Academic lefties who can't bear the thought of Labour being consigned to the dustbin of history.
More specifically, they can't bear the thought that a lot of Labour people are Reform people, and the party itself has lost touch with them.
Even more specifically, the data they have gathered, by great effort, across a number of wards, shows this to be false. But why let facts get in the way of a bullshit narrative?
(My own feeling is that the Lab -> Reform transfer is of course a real thing, but happened a long time ago and probably via Johnson's Tories to a large extent and driven by Brexit. Those people were already mostly lost to Labour last time these seats were up.)
I don't think it's an event but a process that's still ongoing. Reform are now winning in places that Johnson didn't come close to winning.
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
Badenoch reminds me of Ed Milliband. Both appeared a bit weird, to be conceived in lab in party HQ, and appealing to a core party group. Both talked a lot about how tough and clever they were and how they mastered policy. Both somehow conspired to lose seats after a major defeat.
No. She's much more interesting than Miliband. He's a type we've seen before, she isn't
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
Badenoch reminds me of Ed Milliband. Both appeared a bit weird, to be conceived in lab in party HQ, and appealing to a core party group. Both talked a lot about how tough and clever they were and how they mastered policy. Both somehow conspired to lose seats after a major defeat.
No. She's much more interesting than Miliband. He's a type we've seen before, she isn't
"...The conclusion "Reform won the seat from Lab therefore biggest vote swing is Lab to Reform" does not follow from this pattern. There are multiple vote flows here: Lab to Grn, Lab to abstain, Lab to Ref, Con to Ref, abstain to Ref...Lab to Ref is only one part of this, not typically the largest."
It's literal cope from Labour supporters and boosters online. They're trying desperately to claim that Labour losing hundreds of seats to Reform is a disaster for the Tories really.
Rob Ford is Politics Professor, University of Manchester. John Curtice is Politics Professor, University of Strathclyde. And member of the Royal Statistical Society
Academic lefties who can't bear the thought of Labour being consigned to the dustbin of history.
More specifically, they can't bear the thought that a lot of Labour people are Reform people, and the party itself has lost touch with them.
I doubt that either of these extremely smart chaps is unaware that a lot of people who previously voted Labour now vote Reform, especially given their academic area of focus. I've never met Rob Ford but I have chatted to John Curtice and he strikes me as far more interested in analyzing the numbers than in putting his own spin on them, whatever that may be. S classic academic, in other words. As an aside, I spent a decent chunk of my childhood in a somewhat down at heel neighbourhood in a northern English city and a lot of the folks voting Labour at the time also held bracingly rightwing views on pretty much every issue - they were Labour because the party was born from the union movement and looked after people like them through things like council housing. Trade unions themselves often had leadership far to the left of the rank and file, often because Left wing leaders negotiated better deals. So there may be some naive tofu eating leftists who have no idea how a lot of working class people see the world, but I'm not one of them!
And for all the people suggesting the Tories are doing spectacularly poorly and how this is terrible, just a few weeks ago lots of people (including on here) were suggesting they could end up fifth on NEV behind the Lib Dems and Greens because of the by election result. Overall I think Kemi has had a reasonably good result, 20% NEV and second place with a few high profile council gains is more than enough to keep her in place and keep building a solid policy base and support for a smaller state and lower taxes.
On the one hand, it's better than Labour. On the other hand, 20% (if that's where it ends) is still terrible for an opposition party, particularly with an unpopular government and - if you view politics through some kind of left/right split - puts them solidly in second place on that side of politics. So if you're right-inclined, why vote Tory rather than Reform, who appear to have a better chance of winning? If you're left-inclined, Labour are still the most obvious with a chance to win in most seats. Labour may well lose the next GE, but they don't look like getting replaced as the main party of the left at present.
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
But for the Tories it's a 3 or 4% swing over three years required from Reform to get back into the lead as "main party on the right", for Labour they need to take votes from Reform and from the Greens. The Tory party doesn't need to move in two directions to get in the high 20s, it just needs to stake a claim to the centre right. Labour has to get socially conservative voters back from Reform who want zero migrants and it needs to win socially liberal voters from the Greens who want a multicultural utopia. The path back to power for the Tories is easier than it is for Labour to hold on.
So, the Tories write off the 72 Lib Dem seats, do they not need any of them?
No but you don't chase them, just build a centre right conseunsus for low immigration, high integration and low taxes. As I said at the time, Labour made a huge mistake on getting rid of the two child benefit cap, it let the Tories back into the race and gave people a reason to listen to them again. There is a route back to being largest party for them which I don't think exists for Labour.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2026/england/councils/E07000102
Take this BBC post from the never knowingly under-excited by Reform Chris Mason, and juxtapose the chart at the top with his text.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgz8d556zpo
This summary says it all:
Reform are ahead, winning the most votes, as they did in last year's local elections.
And behind them there is the trailing pack of Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party of England and Wales.
And it's not entirely unreasonable to speculate what might happen if there is some swingback (and improvement of turnout by their supporters) into the next general election. In five party politics the margins are pretty tight in a lot of places... and you get mad results on occasion.
RESULT: North (Peterborough) council ward:
🔵 CON: 34.8% (+7.2)
🔴 LAB: 31.6% (-40.8)
➡️ RFM: 18.0% (+18.0)
🟢 GRN: 15.6% (+15.6)
Tories GAIN from Labour
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2052541966106144953
Of course, it's just as possible you're right about the Labour to Reform defection of the "working class", in which case it little matters what Labour do, other than their best to govern with a small amount of competence.
But your declaration that they have to decide immediately whether to tack left or right is as tendentious as anyone else's particular take.
John Curtice is Politics Professor, University of Strathclyde. And member of the Royal Statistical Society
NOC i reckon but Tory and Reform should be able to cut a deal
I'm holding out for Matt Goodwin's take
ETA:
Is that mood likely to dramatically change between now and the next GE? I believe that is unlikely, not impossible, but unlikely. It needs Labour to radically improve the economy (how?) AND suddenly become appealing. It also needs problems with crime/migration/terror/Islamism to all dwindle away
That's quite a tall order
But a week is a long time, and all that, and three years is a millennium
And looking at the above result, it definitely isn't Tory to Reform, it's Labour just collapsing into the other three parties completely. The idea that all of those 18% of Reform came from the Tories but there were enough former Labour voters to push them back over their previous result and add another 7% is just extremely unlikely. The likelier scenario is that Labour are losing votes to both Reform and the Greens everywhere and in some places it's more to one or the other but fundamentally it's a transfer from Labour.
What I think we've seen elsewhere is in solidly Tory places there is still a leakage of Tory votes to Reform but what was previously a flood is now closer to a trickle and I think in other places it is reversing.
(My own feeling is that the Lab -> Reform transfer is of course a real thing, but happened a long time ago and probably via Johnson's Tories to a large extent and driven by Brexit. Those people were already mostly lost to Labour last time these seats were up.)
Neck and neck for cllrs between lab and con.
Stephen Flynn
(Aberdeen South) (SNP)
Depending upon the results in the elections next week, this may well be my final PMQs. I suppose that the same is perhaps true for the Prime Minister as well.
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2026-04-29/debates/BE82D759-25C8-4BB4-8835-656F5B6B5B4B/Engagements#contribution-A71B0B11-5539-4332-9CEC-7905351EA869
I mentioned it then.
The DeReform Act. Reverse the 1840 Reform act and remove the vote from those without the property qualifications.
36 Ref, 36 the rest 12 to declare
Labour are being destroyed - all around the country
If they have a heartland, where is it? Scotland, lol. Northern England? Nope, that's Reform, Wales, hahah they are down to about zero seats
London, I suppose, but even there they are now struggling, attacked from all sides, losing the Jewish vote, the Muslim vote, the anyone-with-a-brain vote
Khan will find it difficult to win another mayoralty if the Tories can find a decent candidate
FWIW, I'd rather Labour got usurped as the main party on the left than the Tories as the main party on the right*, so this isn't my hopes talking. The Tory hope, which is not implausible, is Reform implosion/decline and the last GE results still showing them, to most people, as main challenger in many seats.
*due to the candidates to be usurper
Halfway through and not a single Labour or Conservative councillor elected.
Has that happened before anywhere in England since the 19th Century?
When you step back, what he has done - AGAIN - is quite astonishing
History made. We won ten out of ten seats, with overwhelming majorities in every single one.
Great Yarmouth First, then we Restore Britain.
A very special day.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2026/scotland/constituencies/S16000175
People saying he won’t necessarily win the next election aren’t denying his winning today.
(In Bury).
WY counting has ground to a halt a bit at present.
Btw. Half time in Newcastle (counters having a well deserved break).
Scores on doors.
Greens 14
Lib Dems 13
Reform UK 9
Independents 3
I am glad Kemi is - it seems - going to survive. For that speech alone she deserves a chance to continue rebuilding
Tories though hold their seats in Chigwell, Grange Hill and Buckhurst Hill West and Epping West
Reform 12 (+12)
Green 6 (+3)
Con 3 (-3)
Ind 3 (+1)
LD 0 (-5)
Lab 0 (-8)
Cambridge. Had to be Cambridge
As an aside, I spent a decent chunk of my childhood in a somewhat down at heel neighbourhood in a northern English city and a lot of the folks voting Labour at the time also held bracingly rightwing views on pretty much every issue - they were Labour because the party was born from the union movement and looked after people like them through things like council housing. Trade unions themselves often had leadership far to the left of the rank and file, often because Left wing leaders negotiated better deals.
So there may be some naive tofu eating leftists who have no idea how a lot of working class people see the world, but I'm not one of them!