The cabinet are proving to be a seraglio of eunuchs – politicalbetting.com

System · May 8

The cabinet are proving to be a seraglio of eunuchs – politicalbetting.com

Talk of a Cabinet revolt telling Keir Starmer to quit is dead.That's the vibe of my mammoth ring round this morning

Read the full story here

Pulpstar · May 8

"Now is not the time"

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 8

Then we need an election.

rottenborough · May 8

Pulpstar said:
"Now is not the time"

Written on their tombstones presumably.

numbertwelve · May 8

The Labour Party can’t do regicide. They are useless at it.

There are still two risk points for Starmer - what Streeting does and what Rayner says. Those could shift the conversation. But if neither of those parties make a move he is secure.

Theuniondivvie · May 8

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Then we need an election.

Eunuchs can’t get elections.
Sorry, erections.

MikeL · May 8

Manchester vote share so far:

Green 37
Labour 29
Reform 18
Lib Dem 14
Con 2 (!)

Implications for Burnham?

noneoftheabove · May 8

De-threaded so reposting.

He knows he can't stay in place for the GE. He doesn't want to go now. His rivals aren't ready to take over now.

It seems pretty obvious to me that the betting market has it very wrong and he will leave in 2027.

DoctorG · May 8

Lol

Gordon Brown's "no time for a novice" ringing in their lugs

Stuartinromford · May 8

The catch.

Starmer is awful. But.

Rayner is too flaky.
Streeting is to slimy.
Burnham is too not-an-MP, as well as being rubbish at trying to take over subtly.

So Starmer it is. Until someone better emerges.

Pulpstar · May 8

Highters Heath (First Brum ward)

Candidate name Party Votes
Bowen, Iain David Liberal Democrats 56
Higgs, Adam Andrew Local Conservatives 1,342
Samuels, Joe Labour Party 269
Shemmans, Joanne Green Party 419
West, Jason Reform UK 877

2022

Candidate Party Votes
Higgs Adam Andrew Local Conservatives 1094
Thomas Clare Louise Green Party 109
Waltho Lynda Ellen Labour and Co-operative Party 793
Rejected Ballot Papers 13

2018

Highter's Heath
Adam Higgs C 1362 61.7%
Barry Bowles Lab 709 32.1%
Clare Thomas Grn 79 3.6%
Kirsty Jerome LD 57 2.6%

nico67 · May 8

Maybe they’re waiting for Burnham . It would make sense to not say much now . Alternatively they don’t want to lose their cabinet jobs and realize if Starmer goes many of them will too .

DoctorG · May 8

Irony of all this is Sarwar will likely resign, and Starmer still wants to remain in post

Mexicanpete · May 8

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Then we need an election.

That is the last thing we need. NFICIPM.

I suspect this quickly drops out of Starmer's hands. There is a personal hatred by the electorate of the man. Burnham trying to control the narrative around Burnham. Someone in Parliament needs to jump. A stalking horse?

kinabalu · May 8

My betting book (SKS goes but not this year) is not acting cocky, it knows not to, but it is feeling quite chipper.

rottenborough · May 8

nico67 said:
Maybe they’re waiting for Burnham . It would make sense to not say much now . Alternatively they don’t want to lose their cabinet jobs and realize if Starmer goes many of them will too .

More chance of keeping your Cabinet post if you facilitate Burnham's eventual victory is the thinking me thinks.

That means keeping Starmer now but somehow getting him to not block Burnham.

viewcode · May 8

Stuartinromford said:
...
Rayner is too flaky.
Streeting is too slimy.
Burnham is too not-an-MP, as well as being rubbish at trying to take over subtly....

...Nooses give; Gas smells awful; You might as well live.

HYUFD · May 8

Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC says 'you haven't got in Essex dripping wet Tory MPs, the national party flirting with Lib Demmery cost them there' but he says Kemi is sound

Battlebus · May 8

I blame the voters.

It seems to be carousel politics at the moment. Didn't like the Tories so invested their hopes in Labour. Didn't like them so will switch to Reform. Greens next or perhaps LibDems. The fundamental issue is that there is no money for everything the voters want so will switch to whomever promises the moon on a stick.

How Labour handle the first Reform council to issue a Section 114 notice will be illuminating.

HYUFD · May 8

Labour have won most council areas so far but are currently 4th on council seats won so the Cabinet shouldn't count their chickens yet

Pulpstar · May 8

1 each for Reform, Greens and Tories in Brum

numbertwelve · May 8

nico67 said:
Maybe they’re waiting for Burnham . It would make sense to not say much now . Alternatively they don’t want to lose their cabinet jobs and realize if Starmer goes many of them will too .

They will forever find justification to wait, while steadily getting ever more unpopular and making it harder to salvage anything from the wreckage. But this is exactly as I expected them to behave.

Northern_Al · May 8

The worst thing Labour could do is a knee-jerk leadership contest, as I keep saying. There's plenty of time before the next GE to replace Starmer, but to do so instantly on the back of poor mid-term results would be reckless in the extreme. Act in haste, repent at leisure, as someone once said.

TheScreamingEagles · May 8

The first results for Sheffield are in.

The Green Party's Maia Salman-Lord holds the City ward with a big majority, while Margaret Abbey has taken the Manor seat from Labour.

Meanwhile Reform UK have won in Southey, where Yvonne Sykes has ousted long-serving Labour councillor Jayne Dunn.

Mexicanpete · May 8

HYUFD said:
Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC says 'you haven't got in Essex dripping wet Tory MPs, the national party flirting with Lib Demmery cost them there' but he says Kemi is sound

How can one man be so wrong all of the time?

IanB2 · May 8

Battlebus said:
I blame the voters.

It seems to be carousel politics at the moment. Didn't like the Tories so invested their hopes in Labour. Didn't like them so will switch to Reform. Greens next or perhaps LibDems. The fundamental issue is that there is no money for everything the voters want so will switch to whomever promises the moon on a stick.

How Labour handle the first Reform council to issue a Section 114 notice will be illuminating.

The island will be in that position in a year or two; they’ve only stayed afloat this year by spending from reserves to support normal revenue expenditure

Pulpstar · May 8

Reform gain from labour in Brum details

Full results;

Harry Ballard - Green Party 321

Francis Barber - Liberal Democrats 103

Tony Briggs - Local COnservatives 155

Alan Feeney - Reform UK 1262

Ginge Smyth - Independent - 132

Fiona Williams - Labour and Co-operative Party 488

Dunno what the prev result was but that is some collapse from Labour. Very distant 2nd.

LostPassword · May 8

Ukraine hit two Russian oil refineries overnight (Perm and Yaroslavl) plus a number of targets in Rostov oblast, marking an escalation in the scale of their deep strike capabilities (and/or a diminution in Russia's ability to defend against these strikes.

Russia are so nervous about the Moscow Victory Day parade that they've revoked all foreign media accreditation for reporting on it, and the Russian media broadcast will operate with a delay. I don't expect Ukraine to attack the parade, but the Russians seem are preparing to minimise the consequences if they do.

kle4 · May 8

I hope Starmer rebounds. Who doesn't love a comeback story?

Foss · May 8

FTP...

kle4 said:

noneoftheabove said:

williamglenn said:
https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/2052705525003915403

Talk of a Cabinet revolt telling Keir Starmer to quit is dead.

That's the vibe of my mammoth ring round this morning
He knows he can't stay in place for the GE. He doesn't want to go now. His rivals aren't ready to take over now.

It seems pretty obvious to me that the betting market has it very wrong and he will leave in 2027.
PM 2024-2027 looks much better than 2024-2026

Next year they'll be a little voice in the back of his head saying that PM 2024-2028 looks even better. And then, somehow, he'll end up fighting the next election...

HYUFD · May 8

Dundee West declaration

SNP 12,722
Labour 6,365
Reform 3,315
LDs 1980
Conservatives 881
TUSC 649

Swing 6.5% swing SNP to Reform since 2021

TheScreamingEagles · May 8

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC says 'you haven't got in Essex dripping wet Tory MPs, the national party flirting with Lib Demmery cost them there' but he says Kemi is sound
How can one man be so wrong all of the time?

Ask Leon.

ThomasNashe · May 8

I wonder if SKS will have a reshuffle. If so, it will be interesting to see where Ed Miliband and Wes Streeting end up (out altogether, possibly?)

IanB2 · May 8

Dundee W - a solid SNP hold

Rumours Robertson has lost his Edinburgh seat to the Greens

kle4 · May 8

Battlebus said:
I blame the voters.

It seems to be carousel politics at the moment. Didn't like the Tories so invested their hopes in Labour. Didn't like them so will switch to Reform. Greens next or perhaps LibDems. The fundamental issue is that there is no money for everything the voters want so will switch to whomever promises the moon on a stick.

How Labour handle the first Reform council to issue a Section 114 notice will be illuminating.

Reminds me of the journey of scottish mps, lab to snp to con to snp to lab etc

No loyalty thesedays

nico67 · May 8

Battlebus said:
I blame the voters.

It seems to be carousel politics at the moment. Didn't like the Tories so invested their hopes in Labour. Didn't like them so will switch to Reform. Greens next or perhaps LibDems. The fundamental issue is that there is no money for everything the voters want so will switch to whomever promises the moon on a stick.

How Labour handle the first Reform council to issue a Section 114 notice will be illuminating.

Tell Reform to get stuffed . Two can play the Reform game .

Mexicanpete · May 8

Never mind dead duck Starmer. Do we think Badenoch has done enough?

ThomasNashe · May 8

kle4 said:
I hope Starmer rebounds. Who doesn't love a comeback story?

He's already had one. Remember the Hartlepool nadir?

noneoftheabove · May 8

Battlebus said:
I blame the voters.

It seems to be carousel politics at the moment. Didn't like the Tories so invested their hopes in Labour. Didn't like them so will switch to Reform. Greens next or perhaps LibDems. The fundamental issue is that there is no money for everything the voters want so will switch to whomever promises the moon on a stick.

How Labour handle the first Reform council to issue a Section 114 notice will be illuminating.

Yes, we regularly get told not to moan about the voters. Ultimately we are getting these politicians because that is what people are voting for, and its a downward spiral from here unless voters wise up.

MikeL · May 8

Dundee City West:

SNP 49% (down 13%)

SNP way down in both Scottish results so far.

dixiedean · May 8

HYUFD said:
Labour have won most council areas so far but are currently 4th on council seats won so the Cabinet shouldn't count their chickens yet

Yes but.
A lot of that is historic from thirds.
They "won" Wigan despite losing all 25 wards.

Stuartinromford · May 8

Battlebus said:
I blame the voters.

It seems to be carousel politics at the moment. Didn't like the Tories so invested their hopes in Labour. Didn't like them so will switch to Reform. Greens next or perhaps LibDems. The fundamental issue is that there is no money for everything the voters want so will switch to whomever promises the moon on a stick.

How Labour handle the first Reform council to issue a Section 114 notice will be illuminating.

We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.

Unfortunately, as true now as it was in 2008.

TheScreamingEagles · May 8

IanB2 said:
Dundee W - a solid SNP hold

Rumours Robertson has lost his Edinburgh seat to the Greens

That settles it, no mandate for Indyref2 for a generation.

DoctorG · May 8

IanB2 said:
Dundee W - a solid SNP hold

Rumours Robertson has lost his Edinburgh seat to the Greens

yeah I think he is done. 4th on list so won't get back in

GarethoftheVale2 · May 8

One of the early results in Tyesley Brum, gives an idea of how split it may be:

Green - 550
Lab - 463
LD - 463
Ref - 432
Workers- 383
Con- 303
Your - 90

kinabalu · May 8

kle4 said:
I hope Starmer rebounds. Who doesn't love a comeback story?

Keir gets knocked down. But Keir gets up again. You're never gonna keep Keir down.

Perhaps we hear that at Glasto 29.

eek · May 8

LostPassword said:
Ukraine hit two Russian oil refineries overnight (Perm and Yaroslavl) plus a number of targets in Rostov oblast, marking an escalation in the scale of their deep stroke capabilities (and/or a diminution in Russia's ability to defend against these strikes.

Russia are so nervous about the Moscow Victory Day parade that they've revoked all foreign media accreditation for reporting on it, and the Russian media broadcast will operate with a delay. I don't expect Ukraine to attack the parade, but the Russians seem are preparing to minimise the consequences if they do.

Why would they need to attack the parade.,a few drones draping the Ukrainian flag would be far funnier at proving the point

Pulpstar · May 8

2022 Tydesley

Tyseley and Hay Mills Ward Results

Amjad Sajad Liberal Democrats 184
Begum Najma Local Conservatives 155
Hindley Joanna Mae Green Party 118
Iqbal Zafar Labour Party 1332

2026

Garrett, Ian Anthony George Liberal Democrats 463
Howard, John Martin Reform UK 432
Iqbal, Zafar Local Conservatives 303
John, Yvette Roselyn Labour Party 463
Mustifa, Dawud Your Party 90
Nadeem, Mohammad Workers Party 383
Rahman, Atikur Green Party 550

From 74% of the vote to losing it in a 6 way scrum

nico67 · May 8

noneoftheabove said:

Battlebus said:
I blame the voters.

It seems to be carousel politics at the moment. Didn't like the Tories so invested their hopes in Labour. Didn't like them so will switch to Reform. Greens next or perhaps LibDems. The fundamental issue is that there is no money for everything the voters want so will switch to whomever promises the moon on a stick.

How Labour handle the first Reform council to issue a Section 114 notice will be illuminating.
Yes, we regularly get told not to moan about the voters. Ultimately we are getting these politicians because that is what people are voting for, and its a downward spiral from here unless voters wise up.

It’s been hilarious to see the justification from some Reform voters questioned about their choice . Half the things they want changed are nothing to do with the council and the rest there’s zero money for . They think a lying corrupt grifter gives a fxck about them . It’s like Trump UK .

Cicero · May 8

MikeL said:
Dundee City West:

SNP 49% (down 13%)

SNP way down in both Scottish results so far.

It is looking like quite a poor result for the SNP, but Labour facing a horror show in Glasgow, apparently.

Leon_VotedForStarmer · May 8

Are Holyrood turn-outs normally that bad? 46% in Dundee?

kinabalu · May 8

Mexicanpete said:
Never mind dead duck Starmer. Do we think Badenoch has done enough?

Happily for Labour and Reform, yes.

DoctorG · May 8

MikeL said:
Dundee City West:

SNP 49% (down 13%)

SNP way down in both Scottish results so far.

Dundee west is one of their safest seats. But in urban Scotland, if Labour are flatlining and Reform scooping up some votes, still leads to a raft of SNP holds

HYUFD · May 8

MikeL said:
Dundee City West:

SNP 49% (down 13%)

SNP way down in both Scottish results so far.

Swing 6.5% from SNP to Reform since 2021 in Dundee West

Foss · May 8

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:
I hope Starmer rebounds. Who doesn't love a comeback story?
Keir gets knocked down. But Keir gets up again. You're never gonna keep Keir down.

Perhaps we hear that at Glasto 29.

"He drinks a whiskey drink
He drinks a vodka drink
He drinks a lager drink
He drinks a cider drink"

Actually, I'd love to watch that...

LostPassword · May 8

Northern_Al said:
The worst thing Labour could do is a knee-jerk leadership contest, as I keep saying. There's plenty of time before the next GE to replace Starmer, but to do so instantly on the back of poor mid-term results would be reckless in the extreme. Act in haste, repent at leisure, as someone once said.

I agree with Jon Trickett, in that Labour need to work out where they have gone wrong and what they need to do differently. And that will then clarify who they want to replace Starmer with.

numbertwelve · May 8

Foss said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:
I hope Starmer rebounds. Who doesn't love a comeback story?
Keir gets knocked down. But Keir gets up again. You're never gonna keep Keir down.

Perhaps we hear that at Glasto 29.
"He drinks a whiskey drink
He drinks a vodka drink
He drinks a lager drink
He drinks a cider drink"

Actually, I'd love to watch that...

But does he have them with a korma?

Jim_the_Lurker · May 8

Northern_Al said:
The worst thing Labour could do is a knee-jerk leadership contest, as I keep saying. There's plenty of time before the next GE to replace Starmer, but to do so instantly on the back of poor mid-term results would be reckless in the extreme. Act in haste, repent at leisure, as someone once said.

To be honest my gut (and current gambling position) has always been sceptical about an early defenestration for the Prime Minister.

A) It isn’t in Labour’s nature - rightly or wrongly.
B ) The leading candidates are not ready to play Brown to Starmer’s Blair (Rayner’s not been cleared by HMRC yet - I think, Streeting is still under Mandelson proximity suspicion, and Burnham is not an MP).

But there are still results to come in - and it is hard to see where the bright spots for Labour will come. I guess the only current bright spot for Labourr is that HM’s official opposition is also stuck in a bit of existential funk.

sarissa · May 8

Turnout in Orkney down from 66% to 58%. this is shaping to be a repeat of 2016 with scunnered SNP support staying away, but with the AntiCorbyn as well.

Looks like I could have Lorna Woodlouse as my MSP

ThomasNashe · May 8

GarethoftheVale2 said:
One of the early results in Tyesley Brum, gives an idea of how split it may be:

Green - 550
Lab - 463
LD - 463
Ref - 432
Workers- 383
Con- 303
Your - 90

Haven't done the maths, but that looks like a win on around 20% of the votes.

Leon_VotedForStarmer · May 8

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC says 'you haven't got in Essex dripping wet Tory MPs, the national party flirting with Lib Demmery cost them there' but he says Kemi is sound
How can one man be so wrong all of the time?
Ask Leon.

It takes skill, guile and a certain relentless genius. I offer tutorials

DoctorG · May 8

Leon said:
Are Holyrood turn-outs normally that bad? 46% in Dundee?

Yes, you'll get 50% plus in rural and maybe 60% plus in tight contests in better off areas, Glasgow/Dundee in the less affluent seats can be sub 45%

Pulpstar · May 8

ThomasNashe said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:
One of the early results in Tyesley Brum, gives an idea of how split it may be:

Green - 550
Lab - 463
LD - 463
Ref - 432
Workers- 383
Con- 303
Your - 90
Haven't done the maths, but that looks like a win on just over 20% of the votes.

Labour won over 74% there last election

Fairliered · May 8

Cicero said:

MikeL said:
Dundee City West:

SNP 49% (down 13%)

SNP way down in both Scottish results so far.
It is looking like quite a poor result for the SNP, but Labour facing a horror show in Glasgow, apparently.

It looks so far like the forecasts of a significant drop in the SNP vote, but the other parties’ votes being evenly split, allowing the SNP to maintain their majority on a lower vote, is borne out by early results.

Leon_VotedForStarmer · May 8

DoctorG said:

Leon said:
Are Holyrood turn-outs normally that bad? 46% in Dundee?
Yes, you'll get 50% plus in rural and maybe 60% plus in tight contests in better off areas, Glasgow/Dundee in the less affluent seats can be sub 45%

Ta. Bit depressing. On the upside, doesn't look like the Nats are cruising to a majority, after all

LostPassword · May 8

GarethoftheVale2 said:
One of the early results in Tyesley Brum, gives an idea of how split it may be:

Green - 550
Lab - 463
LD - 463
Ref - 432
Workers- 383
Con- 303
Your - 90

I make that 19.8% for the winning Green there. Astounding!

williamglenn · May 8

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:
I hope Starmer rebounds. Who doesn't love a comeback story?
Keir gets knocked down. But Keir gets up again. You're never gonna keep Keir down.

Perhaps we hear that at Glasto 29.

The staggered results mean that we can go through this cycle several times before Monday.

DoctorG · May 8

looks like the new MSP for Strathkelvin and Bearsden will be a Lib Dem. A huge task to go from 4th to win but they are hoovering up Tory and Labour votes across target seats. They were 14.5k behind the SNP last time around

HYUFD · May 8

Council seats won so far Reform 448, LDs 287, Conservatives 272, Labour 262, Greens 71, Independent 27

numbertwelve · May 8

Fairliered said:

Cicero said:

MikeL said:
Dundee City West:

SNP 49% (down 13%)

SNP way down in both Scottish results so far.
It is looking like quite a poor result for the SNP, but Labour facing a horror show in Glasgow, apparently.
It looks so far like the forecasts of a significant drop in the SNP vote, but the other parties’ votes being evenly split, allowing the SNP to maintain their majority on a lower vote, is borne out by early results.

Ah, the electoral system bequeathed by Labour paying dividends for the SNP again…

Stuartinromford · May 8

nico67 said:

Battlebus said:
I blame the voters.

It seems to be carousel politics at the moment. Didn't like the Tories so invested their hopes in Labour. Didn't like them so will switch to Reform. Greens next or perhaps LibDems. The fundamental issue is that there is no money for everything the voters want so will switch to whomever promises the moon on a stick.

How Labour handle the first Reform council to issue a Section 114 notice will be illuminating.
Tell Reform to get stuffed . Two can play the Reform game .

That will be Havering (not actually s114, but getting huge special support loans each year) stuffed, then.

viewcode · May 8

LostPassword said:

Northern_Al said:
The worst thing Labour could do is a knee-jerk leadership contest, as I keep saying. There's plenty of time before the next GE to replace Starmer, but to do so instantly on the back of poor mid-term results would be reckless in the extreme. Act in haste, repent at leisure, as someone once said.
I agree with Jon Trickett, in that Labour need to work out where they have gone wrong and what they need to do differently. And that will then clarify who they want to replace Starmer with.

I also agree, but that's also the way I'd do it: calm, rational, identify the problem, make a to-do list, get it done. But I'm terrible at politics. I can't help thinking this is not the time for normal, rational politics when abnormal, irrational politics is doing so well.

Leon_VotedForStarmer · May 8

HUGE Reform win there. They are becoming the political wing of the British people

wooliedyed · May 8

Norfolk runnimg 8 Ref to 2 Tory. Ref picked up Crome in Norwich which used to be the Tories strongest city ward

Malmesbury · May 8

Called it.

"After Brown and then Corbyn - a slow motion comedy is a certainty."

DoctorG · May 8

Leon said:

DoctorG said:

Leon said:
Are Holyrood turn-outs normally that bad? 46% in Dundee?
Yes, you'll get 50% plus in rural and maybe 60% plus in tight contests in better off areas, Glasgow/Dundee in the less affluent seats can be sub 45%
Ta. Bit depressing. On the upside, doesn't look like the Nats are cruising to a majority, after all

No, the majority chance has gone on Lib Dem and Green constituency wins alone. Their list vote has been tailing off the last week or 10 days, they may pick up a list seat in Highlands/South and small chance in Edinburgh

Leon_VotedForStarmer · May 8

REJOICE, JUST REJOICE AT THIS NEWS

Big NIGEL is on the road to Number Ten

IanB2 · May 8

Pulpstar said:
2022 Tydesley

Tyseley and Hay Mills Ward Results

Amjad Sajad Liberal Democrats 184
Begum Najma Local Conservatives 155
Hindley Joanna Mae Green Party 118
Iqbal Zafar Labour Party 1332

2026

Garrett, Ian Anthony George Liberal Democrats 463
Howard, John Martin Reform UK 432
Iqbal, Zafar Local Conservatives 303
John, Yvette Roselyn Labour Party 463
Mustifa, Dawud Your Party 90
Nadeem, Mohammad Workers Party 383
Rahman, Atikur Green Party 550

From 74% of the vote to losing it in a 6 way scrum

Serves him right for jumping from Labour to Tory

Fairliered · May 8

numbertwelve said:

Fairliered said:

Cicero said:

MikeL said:
Dundee City West:

SNP 49% (down 13%)

SNP way down in both Scottish results so far.
It is looking like quite a poor result for the SNP, but Labour facing a horror show in Glasgow, apparently.
It looks so far like the forecasts of a significant drop in the SNP vote, but the other parties’ votes being evenly split, allowing the SNP to maintain their majority on a lower vote, is borne out by early results.
Ah, the electoral system bequeathed by Labour paying dividends for the SNP again…

Serves them right. They set it up thinking they would always be in power. Then they weren’t.

numbertwelve · May 8

Bit of a bloodbath for Labour in Manchester.

Greens doing well there.

Cookie · May 8

FPT:
Things not going well for Labour in Manchester. In the seats being contested, they are currently third with 2, after Ref and Grn (3 each). I didn't expect Reform to be winning seats in Manchester.
They've also lost Burnage (which is Bev Craig's seat - the council leader and mooted successor to Andy Burnham - though she is not up for election this time) to the Greens.

EDIT - two more Green gains from Labour in Manchester - Lab have now lost seven of the nine declared seats they were defending.

londonpubman · May 8

Looks like SNP might lose some constituency seats. Not many though as most of them particularly central belt are held with big majorities. They should gain a few on the list but a majority is unlikely now.

Taz · May 8

Pulpstar said:
Reform gain from labour in Brum details

Full results;

Harry Ballard - Green Party 321

Francis Barber - Liberal Democrats 103

Tony Briggs - Local COnservatives 155

Alan Feeney - Reform UK 1262

Ginge Smyth - Independent - 132

Fiona Williams - Labour and Co-operative Party 488

Dunno what the prev result was but that is some collapse from Labour. Very distant 2nd.

What ward ?

Leon_VotedForStarmer · May 8

We are perhaps being hasty in writing off the chances of a leadership challenge. Right now Labour's results are going, literally, from bad to worse

Fairliered · May 8

numbertwelve said:
Bit of a bloodbath for Labour in Manchester.

Greens doing well there.

Burnham’s best opportunity may be if he defects to the Greens.

LostPassword · May 8

eek said:

LostPassword said:
Ukraine hit two Russian oil refineries overnight (Perm and Yaroslavl) plus a number of targets in Rostov oblast, marking an escalation in the scale of their deep stroke capabilities (and/or a diminution in Russia's ability to defend against these strikes.

Russia are so nervous about the Moscow Victory Day parade that they've revoked all foreign media accreditation for reporting on it, and the Russian media broadcast will operate with a delay. I don't expect Ukraine to attack the parade, but the Russians seem are preparing to minimise the consequences if they do.
Why would they need to attack the parade.,a few drones draping the Ukrainian flag would be far funnier at proving the point

I don't think Ukraine need to do anything about the parade, but it's revealing how scared Russia are about the possibility of them doing so. It says something about a possible shift in initiative in the war, and Russia's lack of confidence in the ability of their air defences to defend it.

I think Ukraine is probably best off continuing its campaign against Russia's oil industry and military-industrial sector.

Leon_VotedForStarmer · May 8

BREAKING NEWS

“Furious” Starmer was not told local elections had taken place yesterday.

The PM claims civil servants kept him in the dark until this morning.

He has ordered an enquiry into why the elections had gone ahead without his knowledge.

“I thought we’d cancelled them” he told Sky News."

https://x.com/mikegardner_wb/status/2052668038130884819?s=20

GarethoftheVale2 · May 8

Sheffield looking bad for Lab - 4 losses to Green and 3 to Ref so far

DoctorG · May 8

londonpubman said:
Looks like SNP might lose some constituency seats. Not many though as most of them particularly central belt are held with big majorities. They should gain a few on the list but a majority is unlikely now.

Yes, exactly this. They are weaker in rural Scotland but aided by a weak Labour in central belt. Reform polling well but too far behind to take constituencies. Their list vote polling has dropped last few days, best guess is they get between 1 and 3 list MSPs out of this

Mexicanpete · May 8

BBC WATO analysis by Jonny Diamond is Reform and Nigel are smashing it out of the park. BBC loving the Labour bloodbath. Criticism of Tories too.

Not much comment on other parties, but eulogising Team Farage.

Cookie · May 8

Cookie said:
FPT:
Things not going well for Labour in Manchester. In the seats being contested, they are currently third with 2, after Ref and Grn (3 each). I didn't expect Reform to be winning seats in Manchester.
They've also lost Burnage (which is Bev Craig's seat - the council leader and mooted successor to Andy Burnham - though she is not up for election this time) to the Greens.

EDIT - two more Green gains from Labour in Manchester - Lab have now lost seven of the nine declared seats they were defending.

And two more Green gains. AFAICS Lab have only held two seats out of eleven in Manchester - which was supposed to be there best bit of GM.

HYUFD · May 8

Leon said:
REJOICE, JUST REJOICE AT THIS NEWS

Big NIGEL is on the road to Number Ten

On their NEV not without Kemi's support

nico67 · May 8

Mexicanpete said:
BBC WATO analysis by Jonny Diamond is Reform and Nigel are smashing it out of the park. BBC loving the Labour bloodbath. Criticism of Tories too.

Not much comment on other parties, but eulogising Team Farage.

If Reform get in and get rid of the BBC then the corporation only has itself to blame. Not sure why they just refuse to properly scrutinise the Reform corruption. We had weeks of spectacle gate and zip on Farages 5 million .

dixiedean · May 8

First Reform councillors in Newcastle. Win Denton and Westerhope.

Cookie · May 8

From the MEN - Andrew Western's approach to talking to the media seems no worse than any other:

JohnLilburne · May 8

Mexicanpete said:
BBC WATO analysis by Jonny Diamond is Reform and Nigel are smashing it out of the park. BBC loving the Labour bloodbath. Criticism of Tories too.

Not much comment on other parties, but eulogising Team Farage.

Reform has clearly had a good local elections despite declining figures in the opinion polls. What would you like the BBC to say?

kinabalu · May 8

Leon said:
REJOICE, JUST REJOICE AT THIS NEWS

Big NIGEL is on the road to Number Ten

Sigh. Why do I bother.

Theuniondivvie · May 8

Two Daily Record (the SLab house paper) hacks. Anas the first casualty?

Scottish Labour sources questioning Anas Sarwar's 38 seat strategy for Holyrood, with one saying it was "f****** stupid".
https://x.com/paulhutcheon/status/2052712531567739072?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

SNP confident they will win Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse - overturning Labour's by-election victory in the seat last year.
This could be a bad sign for Anas Sarwar's party.
https://x.com/dennynews/status/2052714882328342745?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

Leon_VotedForStarmer · May 8

kinabalu said:

Leon said:
REJOICE, JUST REJOICE AT THIS NEWS

Big NIGEL is on the road to Number Ten
Sigh. Why do I bother.

Just lean in to it, old bean. Big NIGE has the Big MO. He will be our first glorious hard right prime minister and he will sort out absolutely everything, especially the personal difficulties of any crypto billionaires in Thailand. He is THE COMING MAN

Malmesbury · May 8

Cookie said:
From the MEN - Andrew Western's approach to talking to the media seems no worse than any other:

Hmmmm

Pro_Rata · May 8

Wakefield first 6 councillors across 2 wards gone to Reform, Labour were 60%+ in the previous equivalent wards

The cabinet are proving to be a seraglio of eunuchs – politicalbetting.com

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