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Scotland says Yes, No, or maybe – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,172
edited May 7 in General
Scotland says Yes, No, or maybe – politicalbetting.com

After the continuing or otherwise of the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer, the second most consequential outcome of today’s election is events in Scotland, it’s entirely possible that this election sees nearly 70% of MSPs elected today being pro-secession and whilst John Swinney has set an arbitrary target of an SNP majority as a trigger for Indyref2 I suspect that will evolve if there’s a pro-s…

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Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,564
    First like Big Nigel.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,429
    edited May 7
    First? No.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,516
    dixiedean said:

    First like Big Nigel.

    https://bsky.app/profile/ottoenglish.bsky.social/post/3mlbdyt4xnk2t
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,342
    First to go off-topic?

    Newsagents USA report on MAGA deselecting RINO senators who did not bend the knee to Trump, with examples of their adverts:-
    https://youtu.be/3eJBVLbfdPM?t=1044
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,516
    ‪@joxley.jmoxley.co.uk‬

    Arrived early to vote, and there's a Skoda with steamed up windows in the car park #doggingatpollingstations
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,564
    Fpt.
    Yes pollcheck is predicting 4 seats for Labour in Wales.
    Two elected fifth and two sixth.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,857
    Took my mum to vote. Can tell I'm middle-aged. Life means I don't have time to look up candidates etc. By the time I realised we're doing multi-member FPTP, my mum had put her ballot in the box. "How many people did you vote for?" "One - the Tory."

    I suppose it's not too bad as I think multi-member FPTP is a disgrace because it's unfair on independents, so if there are any, that might counteract anyone using their second vote when they shouldn't.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726
    dixiedean said:

    Foss said:

    dixiedean said:

    Supermarkets aren't innocent in all this.
    They took away tills to save staff costs. Many got rid of all barriers to maximise floor space.
    If you can go into my local little Sainsbury's and stroll around without anyone having seen you enter and loads of product right by the door then what are they honestly expecting? It's difficult to find an employee in there.
    There's no place for shop floor staff to actually be.
    Except behind the kiosk. Which you can't see the exit doors from. And which is locked and needs a code to enter or leave.

    You can walk into pretty much any bookstore on the same terms. Do they deserve it too?

    Ultimately, it's the thieving shit's fault for being a thieving shit.
    I didn't say they deserved it.
    I said they've cut costs to facilitate its ease.
    I assume you don't leave your doors to your house and car unlocked at all times?
    Because that's the equivalent.
    I'd like to. And I've actively made choices to move to a part of the country where I don't have to lock the doors even when I'm inside.

    I've also been to the States where you can expect to be fully bag checked every time you leave a major store and I know which world I prefer.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,949
    Pro-indy MSPs are only doing that well because of the flaw in the AMS voting system.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,861
    Based on the last few Holyrood polls the SNP should fail to win a majority. Even if the SNP won a majority the UK Government should still in my view refuse indyref2, it is still far from a generation since 2014. That doesn't even need to go down the Spanish route of arresting nationalist leaders and imposing direct rule given Swinney has ruled out UDI
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,792
    edited May 7
    Had an interesting conversation earlier with my black-cab driver about today's election. He said he's already voted tactically to stop Reform. I'm ashamed to say I stereotyped and considered this unusual amongst his profession.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 635
    As I've said before, I forecastguessed:

    SNP - 60
    Reform - 21
    Labour - 15
    Con - 13
    Green - 10
    Lib D - 10

    Reform to gain Banf & Buchan Coast and Ayr.

    Also punted for Greens to take Glasgow Kelvin & Maryhill
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,233
    Greece to ban cash payments over €500:

    https://greekreporter.com/2026/05/06/greece-ban-cash-payment/

    Cash!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,564
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Had an interesting conversation earlier with my black-cab driver about today's election. He said he's already voted tactically to stop Reform. I'm ashamed to say I stereotyped and considered this unusual amongst his profession.

    Was he Albanian?
    He might fear deportations.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,133
    Scott_xP said:

    ‪@joxley.jmoxley.co.uk‬

    Arrived early to vote, and there's a Skoda with steamed up windows in the car park #doggingatpollingstations

    I take it this isn’t THE Jon Moxley, the fantastic pro wrestler currently with AEW.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,198
    The constituency share of the vote in the 2011 Holyrood election was a reasonable proxy for the Yes vote in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, so I'd suggest that a majority of the vote for parties supporting independence is the best objective measure for justifying a further independence referendum.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,342
    Obituary:-

    Derek Conway, Eurosceptic Conservative MP and whip who was ousted by Cameron over employing his son
    Voting against the Single European Act he observed: ‘I am pleased to be a subject of the Queen rather than a citizen of Europe’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/d8a888b46b7c4796

    Gift link so no paywall.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,133
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Obituary:-

    Derek Conway, Eurosceptic Conservative MP and whip who was ousted by Cameron over employing his son
    Voting against the Single European Act he observed: ‘I am pleased to be a subject of the Queen rather than a citizen of Europe’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/d8a888b46b7c4796

    Gift link so no paywall.

    https://thebill.fandom.com/wiki/Derek_Conway
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    Looking at the Pollcheck projections for East Sussex all I can say is utter nonsense .
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,342
    Taz said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Obituary:-

    Derek Conway, Eurosceptic Conservative MP and whip who was ousted by Cameron over employing his son
    Voting against the Single European Act he observed: ‘I am pleased to be a subject of the Queen rather than a citizen of Europe’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/d8a888b46b7c4796

    Gift link so no paywall.

    https://thebill.fandom.com/wiki/Derek_Conway
    A true public servant.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,853
    For @rottenborough

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2052386160471683550

    WHO's Maria Van Kerkhove on Hantavirus: "This is not coronavirus, this is a very different virus... This is not the start of a COVID pandemic."
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,144
    edited May 7
    HYUFD said:

    Based on the last few Holyrood polls the SNP should fail to win a majority. Even if the SNP won a majority the UK Government should still in my view refuse indyref2, it is still far from a generation since 2014. That doesn't even need to go down the Spanish route of arresting nationalist leaders and imposing direct rule given Swinney has ruled out UDI

    'That doesn't even need to go down the Spanish route of arresting nationalist leaders and imposing direct rule given Swinney has ruled out UD'

    You have lost the plot sadly, and it is no wonder the Scots and Welsh have had it with Westminster if you reflect even a minority view of subjugation by the English

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,861
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Based on the last few Holyrood polls the SNP should fail to win a majority. Even if the SNP won a majority the UK Government should still in my view refuse indyref2, it is still far from a generation since 2014. That doesn't even need to go down the Spanish route of arresting nationalist leaders and imposing direct rule given Swinney has ruled out UDI

    'That doesn't even need to go down the Spanish route of arresting nationalist leaders and imposing direct rule given Swinney has ruled out UD'

    You have lost the plot sadly, and it is no wonder the Scots and Welsh have had it with Westminster if you reflect even a minority view of subjugation by the English

    There are Scottish and Welsh MPs and they have their own parliaments too so hardly subjugation but as the UKSC affirmed Westminster has the final say on the union
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,655
    Gut feel, Reform seats too high in these predictions. Scotland is not England and Reform is purely a racism party in Scotland
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,691
    So a pro-indy majority is certain and an SNP one is 50/50 then. That's definitely something to watch out for. Either, and esp the latter, creates moral pressure for a 2nd ref. Although, as we know, moral pressure peels no turnips. Only leverage does that. But I'll be more focussed on another aspect. Will Reform beat Labour in Scotland? I really hope not. Nobody in their right mind wants to see that.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,892
    Ok, Marj not totally come over to the light quite yet.

    https://x.com/fmrrepmtg/status/2052360355821617635?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,088
    If the Devolved Electoral Projections forecast is correct, the Presiding Officer is going to have fun deciding which order to call the party leaders’ questions at First Minister’s Questions. Labour and Reform both on 17 seats. Tories, Greens and Lib Dems each on 11 seats.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,144
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Based on the last few Holyrood polls the SNP should fail to win a majority. Even if the SNP won a majority the UK Government should still in my view refuse indyref2, it is still far from a generation since 2014. That doesn't even need to go down the Spanish route of arresting nationalist leaders and imposing direct rule given Swinney has ruled out UDI

    'That doesn't even need to go down the Spanish route of arresting nationalist leaders and imposing direct rule given Swinney has ruled out UD'

    You have lost the plot sadly, and it is no wonder the Scots and Welsh have had it with Westminster if you reflect even a minority view of subjugation by the English

    There are Scottish and Welsh MPs and they have their own parliaments too so hardly subjugation but as the UKSC affirmed Westminster has the final say on the union
    You simply have this blind spot about the Scots and Welsh and aggressively talk about subjugating them to Westminster, even if they have a mandate from their electorate to seek independence

    The question you have to ask is why are you frightened of democracy and more importantly why do you think you would lose the argument

    Mind you with your attitude you probably would
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,691
    williamglenn said:

    For @rottenborough

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2052386160471683550

    WHO's Maria Van Kerkhove on Hantavirus: "This is not coronavirus, this is a very different virus... This is not the start of a COVID pandemic."

    Or of a Hantavirus pandemic hopefully.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526
    Gallowgate said:



    Here’s a cartoon to cheer everyone up.

    Utter nonesense

    Where’s the fee? VAT? Regulatory compliance?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,088
    edited May 7
    FF43 said:

    Gut feel, Reform seats too high in these predictions. Scotland is not England and Reform is purely a racism party in Scotland

    During the televised debates, Reform talked far less about immigration than they seem to do elsewhere.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    edited May 7
    Gallowgate said:



    Here’s a cartoon to cheer everyone up.

    I was in North America last month and back off there again in a few weeks. If only it was £35 a day to exist there....Canada in particular is just insane pricing on things like groeceries now, partly weak exchange rate for us, partly inflation, partly Trump tariff, partly no wanting to stock US products out of principle. But £35 gets you bugger all.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    edited May 7
    Malmesbury said:

    Gallowgate said:



    Here’s a cartoon to cheer everyone up.

    Utter nonesense

    Where’s the fee? VAT? Regulatory compliance?
    plus service charge, admin fee, processing fee, admin fee on the processing fee....but you can pay in 3 easy payments via Klarna.

    And that is why grifters like Dave, I mean Zack and Nigel are pushing at open doors. More impressive that Magic Grandpa who actually is lifelong authetic and genuinely lives his message has managed to screw up the second chance at this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,631
    Malmesbury said:

    Gallowgate said:



    Here’s a cartoon to cheer everyone up.

    Utter nonesense

    Where’s the fee? VAT? Regulatory compliance?
    It's @Foxy 's low budget private practice.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,133
    edited May 7
    I don’t believe a second IndyRef will take place unless either a) the SNP hold the balance of power in Westminster and Labour rely on their votes or b) either side is relatively confident in the outcome. The latter sounds odd - but what I mean is that I see a second vote as either clarifying on the yes side that Scotland, after decades of debate, is now finally ready to move forwards or otherwise that the principle is to be rejected emphatically and close the debate. It doesn’t really serve Westminster to declare another vote until then. While we see polls throwing up the dreaded 52/48 formula or some such, I just don’t see it happening.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,144
    dixiedean said:

    Fpt.
    Yes pollcheck is predicting 4 seats for Labour in Wales.
    Two elected fifth and two sixth.

    I find that astonishing even for a poll and yet not one person I have spoken to recently will vote labour

    Anybody but labour seems to be the mantra

    And if it is near that then Eluned Morgan is going to be joining Anwar Sarwar in demanding Starmer goes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,364
    williamglenn said:

    For @rottenborough

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2052386160471683550

    WHO's Maria Van Kerkhove on Hantavirus: "This is not coronavirus, this is a very different virus... This is not the start of a COVID pandemic."

    Thanks. Maybe the rats wont kill us all after all.

    Now about El Niño.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    The head of the World Health Organisation says eight cases of the hantavirus have been reported - that's five confirmed and three suspected cases.

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring....
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    dixiedean said:

    Fpt.
    Yes pollcheck is predicting 4 seats for Labour in Wales.
    Two elected fifth and two sixth.

    I find that astonishing even for a poll and yet not one person I have spoken to recently will vote labour

    Anybody but labour seems to be the mantra

    And if it is near that then Eluned Morgan is going to be joining Anwar Sarwar in demanding Starmer goes
    If its remotely accurate then Eluned Morgan will be citizen Morgan no longer anything to do with the Senedd or the leadership of Welsh Labour
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,861
    edited May 7
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Based on the last few Holyrood polls the SNP should fail to win a majority. Even if the SNP won a majority the UK Government should still in my view refuse indyref2, it is still far from a generation since 2014. That doesn't even need to go down the Spanish route of arresting nationalist leaders and imposing direct rule given Swinney has ruled out UDI

    'That doesn't even need to go down the Spanish route of arresting nationalist leaders and imposing direct rule given Swinney has ruled out UD'

    You have lost the plot sadly, and it is no wonder the Scots and Welsh have had it with Westminster if you reflect even a minority view of subjugation by the English

    There are Scottish and Welsh MPs and they have their own parliaments too so hardly subjugation but as the UKSC affirmed Westminster has the final say on the union
    You simply have this blind spot about the Scots and Welsh and aggressively talk about subjugating them to Westminster, even if they have a mandate from their electorate to seek independence

    The question you have to ask is why are you frightened of democracy and more importantly why do you think you would lose the argument

    Mind you with your attitude you probably would
    We have representative democracy not direct democracy. Even the 2016 EU referendum was nothing more than a glorified opinion poll, we remained in the EU the day after Leave won. Indeed MPs voted down multiple agreements to leave the EU for years, only the Conservative victory in the late 2019 general election delivered Brexit not the referendum.

    Referendums as the previous decade showed are nothing more than tools for populists with no legal force anyway
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,526
    Nigelb said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Gallowgate said:



    Here’s a cartoon to cheer everyone up.

    Utter nonesense

    Where’s the fee? VAT? Regulatory compliance?
    It's @Foxy 's low budget private practice.
    Just realised - it’s the cash-in-hand version of Existence.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,953
    Scott_xP said:

    ‪@joxley.jmoxley.co.uk‬

    Arrived early to vote, and there's a Skoda with steamed up windows in the car park #doggingatpollingstations

    VAG group car. Electronic demister flap will be stuck on recirculating, at which point the whole world fogs up amazingly fast unless you have the air con on. No prizes for working out how I know this!

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,144
    Is anybody else finding posting and the site generally a bit unstable ?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,555
    On thread - did they then go on to say "I don't know, can you repeat the question? You're not the boss of me! Life is unfair!"?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,198
    williamglenn said:

    For @rottenborough

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2052386160471683550

    WHO's Maria Van Kerkhove on Hantavirus: "This is not coronavirus, this is a very different virus... This is not the start of a COVID pandemic."

    For starters, the death rate is at least an order of magnitude higher...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,691
    dixiedean said:

    First like Big Nigel.

    Looks that way. Oh god. He'll be going around tomorrow doing that stupid thing with his hands and saying "the Briddish people have rejected the failing polidical clarse. They want real change. They want Reform!" I feel a duvet day coming on.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,949
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The head of the World Health Organisation says eight cases of the hantavirus have been reported - that's five confirmed and three suspected cases.

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring....

    Associated with the ship.

    There are about 100-200 cases per year of this particular hantavirus.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,775
    LostPassword said:

    williamglenn said:

    For @rottenborough

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2052386160471683550

    WHO's Maria Van Kerkhove on Hantavirus: "This is not coronavirus, this is a very different virus... This is not the start of a COVID pandemic."

    For starters, the death rate is at least an order of magnitude higher...
    "Oh, god! Oh, god! We're all going to die?"
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,601
    edited May 7
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Based on the last few Holyrood polls the SNP should fail to win a majority. Even if the SNP won a majority the UK Government should still in my view refuse indyref2, it is still far from a generation since 2014. That doesn't even need to go down the Spanish route of arresting nationalist leaders and imposing direct rule given Swinney has ruled out UDI

    'That doesn't even need to go down the Spanish route of arresting nationalist leaders and imposing direct rule given Swinney has ruled out UD'

    You have lost the plot sadly, and it is no wonder the Scots and Welsh have had it with Westminster if you reflect even a minority view of subjugation by the English

    There are Scottish and Welsh MPs and they have their own parliaments too so hardly subjugation but as the UKSC affirmed Westminster has the final say on the union
    You simply have this blind spot about the Scots and Welsh and aggressively talk about subjugating them to Westminster, even if they have a mandate from their electorate to seek independence

    The question you have to ask is why are you frightened of democracy and more importantly why do you think you would lose the argument

    Mind you with your attitude you probably would
    We have representative democracy not direct democracy. Even the 2016 EU referendum was nothing more than a glorified opinion poll, we remained in the EU the day after Leave won. Indeed MPs voted down multiple agreements to leave the EU for years, only the Conservative victory in the late 2019 general election delivered Brexit not the referendum.

    Referendums as the previous decade showed are nothing more than tools for populists with no legal force anyway
    I believe that the AV referendum did have legal force in the sense that it was post-legislative. Had the vote been "Yes" then the relevant legislation that had already been through Parliament would automatically have come into force (and, since it was "No", it automatically fell away). I believe the 1979 Scottish devolution referendum (but not the 1997 one) was similarly post-legislative.

    That was different for Scottish independence and Brexit, which were very, very much pre-legislative. Indeed, one of the huge criticisms Brexit (and it would have been the same had independence passed) was the total lack of clarity on what a "Yes" vote actually meant.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,144
    bondegezou said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The head of the World Health Organisation says eight cases of the hantavirus have been reported - that's five confirmed and three suspected cases.

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring....

    Associated with the ship.

    There are about 100-200 cases per year of this particular hantavirus.
    This is interesting

    What is the Andes strain - and why does it make contact tracing more important?

    The Andes strain of hantavirus has been identified as the one that spread on the cruise ship.

    It circulates in parts of South America, including Argentina and Chile, and has been responsible for person-to-person transmission in the past.

    Experts told Sky News that the identification of the strain was a step in the right direction, as it meant officials know precisely what they are up against.

    Professor Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said:

    "The finding of the Andes variant strengthens the hypothesis that the initial cases were acquired in Argentina.

    "This is endemic in Argentina and its host is the long-tailed pygmy rice rat, which as far as I know does not occupy ships, though I am not an expert on rats in ships.

    "The question remains how this infection then spread to the later cases.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,857
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The head of the World Health Organisation says eight cases of the hantavirus have been reported - that's five confirmed and three suspected cases.

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring....

    I'm going to Budapest, killer virus or not.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,768
    Cookie said:

    On thread - did they then go on to say "I don't know, can you repeat the question? You're not the boss of me! Life is unfair!"?

    You got there before I could... :(
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,133
    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The head of the World Health Organisation says eight cases of the hantavirus have been reported - that's five confirmed and three suspected cases.

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring....

    I'm going to Budapest, killer virus or not.
    We were there in March. Fantastic city.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,857
    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The head of the World Health Organisation says eight cases of the hantavirus have been reported - that's five confirmed and three suspected cases.

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring....

    I'm going to Budapest, killer virus or not.
    We were there in March. Fantastic city.
    I bet you didn't pay as much for a hotel room as I have.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,949
    Newsnight on Farage's undisclosed £5 million donation: https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/2051789845891108990
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,133
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The head of the World Health Organisation says eight cases of the hantavirus have been reported - that's five confirmed and three suspected cases.

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring....

    I'm going to Budapest, killer virus or not.
    We were there in March. Fantastic city.
    I bet you didn't pay as much for a hotel room as I have.
    It was a birthday present from my wife, so I don’t know, but every evening from 4-6 Pm the hotel did free wine and cheese.

    Rock n roll !!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,775
    edited May 7
    tlg86 said:

    Took my mum to vote. Can tell I'm middle-aged. Life means I don't have time to look up candidates etc. By the time I realised we're doing multi-member FPTP, my mum had put her ballot in the box. "How many people did you vote for?" "One - the Tory."

    I suppose it's not too bad as I think multi-member FPTP is a disgrace because it's unfair on independents, so if there are any, that might counteract anyone using their second vote when they shouldn't.

    My mum told me, "Why bother voting? They're all the same!"

    In the end, I decided to vote for the LibDems, who'll probably get zero seats in Redbridge anyway!

    I decided they were the least worst option because:

    Labour are tainted by Starmer's lies.
    Tories are too close to Trump
    Farage is a tw*t and too close to Putin
    Polanski is another tw*t
    Redbridge Indies are (generally) Hamas/IRGC supporters

    Still, my first vote for the LDs since the 2008 London Assembly election (though I did vote for Boris for Mayor the same day!).

    One thing I noticed that was radically different at my local polling station was that there was a security dude present (stab-proof vest and all), who only allowed one voter at a time into the voting area. This slowed things down and it appeared there was a queue leading back to the entrance at only 11.30am.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,612
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    LostPassword said:

    williamglenn said:

    For @rottenborough

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2052386160471683550

    WHO's Maria Van Kerkhove on Hantavirus: "This is not coronavirus, this is a very different virus... This is not the start of a COVID pandemic."

    For starters, the death rate is at least an order of magnitude higher...
    "Oh, god! Oh, god! We're all going to die?"
    Leon is that you?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,775
    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The head of the World Health Organisation says eight cases of the hantavirus have been reported - that's five confirmed and three suspected cases.

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring....

    I'm going to Budapest, killer virus or not.
    We were there in March. Fantastic city.
    Fun fact, the massive bridge over the Danube is a scaled up version of the one over the Thames in Marlow, designed by William Tierney Clark.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,612
    edited May 7
    A few of our tellers are getting abused. You always get the odd one, but we have had several now. Nice to know that in one case the Reform teller stepped to stop it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,342
    bondegezou said:

    Newsnight on Farage's undisclosed £5 million donation: https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/2051789845891108990

    Does it matter? Maybe we should back Jenrick as Reform leader by Christmas.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,949
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    bondegezou said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The head of the World Health Organisation says eight cases of the hantavirus have been reported - that's five confirmed and three suspected cases.

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring....

    Associated with the ship.

    There are about 100-200 cases per year of this particular hantavirus.
    This is interesting

    What is the Andes strain - and why does it make contact tracing more important?

    The Andes strain of hantavirus has been identified as the one that spread on the cruise ship.

    It circulates in parts of South America, including Argentina and Chile, and has been responsible for person-to-person transmission in the past.

    Experts told Sky News that the identification of the strain was a step in the right direction, as it meant officials know precisely what they are up against.

    Professor Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said:

    "The finding of the Andes variant strengthens the hypothesis that the initial cases were acquired in Argentina.

    "This is endemic in Argentina and its host is the long-tailed pygmy rice rat, which as far as I know does not occupy ships, though I am not an expert on rats in ships.

    "The question remains how this infection then spread to the later cases.
    There are lots of different hantaviruses: 37 characterised species and plenty more that hasn't been classified yet. Hantaviruses are found primarily in rodents and are generally spreading from rodent to rodent. Some of these can be transmitted from rodent to human. Most, however, can't then spread from a human to another human. The only one that we're certain can do that is Andes virus. Even then, I think most Andes virus cases are still zoonotic.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,857
    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The head of the World Health Organisation says eight cases of the hantavirus have been reported - that's five confirmed and three suspected cases.

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring....

    I'm going to Budapest, killer virus or not.
    We were there in March. Fantastic city.
    I bet you didn't pay as much for a hotel room as I have.
    It was a birthday present from my wife, so I don’t know, but every evening from 4-6 Pm the hotel did free wine and cheese.

    Rock n roll !!
    Very nice. I was disappointed not to get to the final last season, but I've been to Munich and it's a pain to get to/from the ground. I feel like I've hit the jackpot this season: Bilbao, Prague, Brugge and now Budapest (with Wroclaw on the way home).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,861
    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,444
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    LostPassword said:

    williamglenn said:

    For @rottenborough

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2052386160471683550

    WHO's Maria Van Kerkhove on Hantavirus: "This is not coronavirus, this is a very different virus... This is not the start of a COVID pandemic."

    For starters, the death rate is at least an order of magnitude higher...
    "Oh, god! Oh, god! We're all going to die?"
    You never said (wrote) a truer word.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,342
    A UK immigration officer has been found guilty of working for Chinese intelligence...".

    Chi Leung "Peter" Wai, 38, used his access to the main immigration database to track Hong Kong dissidents based in the UK.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0m2wjlkzplo
  • occasionalranteroccasionalranter Posts: 939
    theProle said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ‪@joxley.jmoxley.co.uk‬

    Arrived early to vote, and there's a Skoda with steamed up windows in the car park #doggingatpollingstations

    VAG group car...
    Sounds even more like dogging when you put it like that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,568
    Zack Polanski faces questions over houseboat and council tax

    The Green Party leader admitted he was not a spokesman for the British Red Cross after a Times investigation. Now attention is turning to his living arrangements

    Zack Polanski faces fresh questions over his council tax arrangements as the Green Party looks set to make sweeping gains in local elections across Britain on Thursday.

    The left-wing leader, 43, maintains that he only occasionally stayed on a narrowboat in east London, despite his partner referring to it as their “amazing home” over the past three years.

    Government guidance appears to suggest that boat owners could be liable to pay council tax if it is their sole or main residence.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/zack-polanski-council-tax-news-l5jng8b73
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,568
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The head of the World Health Organisation says eight cases of the hantavirus have been reported - that's five confirmed and three suspected cases.

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring....

    I'm going to Budapest, killer virus or not.
    We were there in March. Fantastic city.
    I bet you didn't pay as much for a hotel room as I have.
    It was a birthday present from my wife, so I don’t know, but every evening from 4-6 Pm the hotel did free wine and cheese.

    Rock n roll !!
    Very nice. I was disappointed not to get to the final last season, but I've been to Munich and it's a pain to get to/from the ground. I feel like I've hit the jackpot this season: Bilbao, Prague, Brugge and now Budapest (with Wroclaw on the way home).
    Just be glad you haven't been to the Parc des Princes.

    #StillTraumatisedFourYearsOn
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,813
    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    The rupturing of the United Kingdom would be, to say the least, consequential.

    If Scotland is to leave, then it really should clearly be the "settled will" of the population. That is simply not the case now, regardless of which party comes out on top tomorrow. For one thing, Indy is not a priority for most people, and for a second thing judging by the polling there is not a stable majority for Yes. As often as not No is ahead.

    The SNP are being flattered by a split in the Unionist vote magnified by Reform. There is no case for a second independence referendum. It's only 12 years since Scotland voted no. Starmer can simply say no, few in Scotland will be that bothered, and life will go on. And, maybe, just maybe, the SNP will do something about Scotland's lamentable public services - though I'm not holding my breath.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,516
    @johnphudson.bsky.social‬

    SCOOP: A confidential new CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 months before facing more severe economic hardship, a finding that contradicts those hailing an imminent collapse

    https://bsky.app/profile/johnphudson.bsky.social/post/3mlbjn7n76a22
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 635
    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    Quite. The SNP’s post-2016 argument was that Brexit materially changed the basis of the 2014 vote. That is not absurd.

    But it does raise the obvious question: if Yes won and circumstances later changed materially against independence, would they accept No/Remain demanding a rerun? Or is “material change” only a constitutional principle when it moves in one direction?

    If, during independence negotiations, something central claimed by the Yes side proved unachievable, would a fresh plebiscite be accepted before the final break? Or would the mandate suddenly become sacred and irreversible?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,857
    edited May 7
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The head of the World Health Organisation says eight cases of the hantavirus have been reported - that's five confirmed and three suspected cases.

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring....

    I'm going to Budapest, killer virus or not.
    We were there in March. Fantastic city.
    I bet you didn't pay as much for a hotel room as I have.
    It was a birthday present from my wife, so I don’t know, but every evening from 4-6 Pm the hotel did free wine and cheese.

    Rock n roll !!
    Very nice. I was disappointed not to get to the final last season, but I've been to Munich and it's a pain to get to/from the ground. I feel like I've hit the jackpot this season: Bilbao, Prague, Brugge and now Budapest (with Wroclaw on the way home).
    Just be glad you haven't been to the Parc des Princes.

    #StillTraumatisedFourYearsOn
    Went last year, got tear gassed.

    (you mean Stade de France, don't you?)

    EDIT: UEFA tickets now all digital via an app...
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,875
    Completely off topic, but I thought this boat race might cheer some of you:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwaCVq9rftU

    I do wonder whether home water advantage might have given the winners an edge.

    (Some of you might like the story of another famous race, chronicled in this best seller: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boys_in_the_Boat )
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,244
    Wonder what will come first. The total decline* of the Scots population or the second Independence vote.

    *According to the ONS, there is a far more rapid decline in population in Scotland than elsewhere in the UK.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,568
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The head of the World Health Organisation says eight cases of the hantavirus have been reported - that's five confirmed and three suspected cases.

    Don't panic Captain Mainwaring....

    I'm going to Budapest, killer virus or not.
    We were there in March. Fantastic city.
    I bet you didn't pay as much for a hotel room as I have.
    It was a birthday present from my wife, so I don’t know, but every evening from 4-6 Pm the hotel did free wine and cheese.

    Rock n roll !!
    Very nice. I was disappointed not to get to the final last season, but I've been to Munich and it's a pain to get to/from the ground. I feel like I've hit the jackpot this season: Bilbao, Prague, Brugge and now Budapest (with Wroclaw on the way home).
    Just be glad you haven't been to the Parc des Princes.

    #StillTraumatisedFourYearsOn
    Went last year, got tear gassed.

    (you mean Stade de France, don't you?)

    EDIT: UEFA tickets now all digital via an app...
    Yes, St Denis, I had PSG on the mind.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    5 o'clock approaches, which is when we often start to get the 'x are very worried that their vote is staying at home in y' teasers to fill the endless void till midnight
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,568
    Thank you Sir Keir Starmer, you're the best.

    EXCL: Downing Street could use delaying tactics to block Andy Burnham from storming back into Parliament as Labour braces for an election bloodbath.

    Labour MPs have been told No10 could drag out any by-election for months – even if an MP quit to hand the Greater Manchester Mayor a safe seat.

    Insiders told The Sun ministers could simply refuse to move the Commons writ needed to formally trigger the vote, leaving any seat sitting empty while freezing Mr Burnham out of Westminster.

    https://x.com/martinabettt/status/2052271942120403337
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Thank you Sir Keir Starmer, you're the best.

    EXCL: Downing Street could use delaying tactics to block Andy Burnham from storming back into Parliament as Labour braces for an election bloodbath.

    Labour MPs have been told No10 could drag out any by-election for months – even if an MP quit to hand the Greater Manchester Mayor a safe seat.

    Insiders told The Sun ministers could simply refuse to move the Commons writ needed to formally trigger the vote, leaving any seat sitting empty while freezing Mr Burnham out of Westminster.

    https://x.com/martinabettt/status/2052271942120403337

    Are there any safe seats for Labour outside of London ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,892
    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,833
    Back from voting. As a proud Englishman I obviously voted for... Plaid Cymru
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,211
    bondegezou said:

    There are lots of different hantaviruses: 37 characterised species and plenty more that hasn't been classified yet. Hantaviruses are found primarily in rodents and are generally spreading from rodent to rodent. Some of these can be transmitted from rodent to human. Most, however, can't then spread from a human to another human. The only one that we're certain can do that is Andes virus. Even then, I think most Andes virus cases are still zoonotic.

    Wikipedia provides an interesting example of the evolution of "received wisdom".

    On 12 January this year, the article on "Andes Virus" read:
    "Human-to-human transmission of Andes virus was first claimed to be a part of a 1996 outbreak in southern Argentina. Since then, there have been continual claims that it can spread from person to person.[12] It can reportedly spread through saliva, airborne droplets from coughing or sneezing, breastmilk, from mother to child across the placenta, and through the digestive tract.[4][7] Person-to-person transmission reportedly occurs mainly within families or when engaging in close activities with an infected person during the prodromal disease phase.[7] A 2021 systematic review, however, found these claims not to be supported by sufficient evidence and cited flawed methodology in research on Andes virus outbreaks.[12]"

    Now it says:
    "In 1996, human-to-human transmission of Andes virus (ANDV) was first identified during an outbreak in El Bolsón, southern Argentina.[13]. This, and subsequent outbreaks in the region, confirmed that Andes virus is unique among American hantaviruses for its capacity to spread between humans. The outbreak involved 16 cases in which epidemiological links were established between person-to-person transmission, often with a roughly three-week interval between cases.[14]"

    The current reference [13] is dated today. The old reference [12] to a systematic review has been deleted. Fair enough in one way, as it seems clear now that there has been person-to-person transmission this year. But until a month ago, anyone turning to Wikipedia for information would have got the impression science had debunked the idea.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,853
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Thank you Sir Keir Starmer, you're the best.

    EXCL: Downing Street could use delaying tactics to block Andy Burnham from storming back into Parliament as Labour braces for an election bloodbath.

    Labour MPs have been told No10 could drag out any by-election for months – even if an MP quit to hand the Greater Manchester Mayor a safe seat.

    Insiders told The Sun ministers could simply refuse to move the Commons writ needed to formally trigger the vote, leaving any seat sitting empty while freezing Mr Burnham out of Westminster.

    https://x.com/martinabettt/status/2052271942120403337

    If Burnham's ego is big enough, he should try a Macron-style reverse takeover and leave the Labour party, stand as an independent, and then invite Labour MPs to defect to him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    What if Labour dont do quite as badly as predicted?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,568
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What if Labour dont do quite as badly as predicted?

    Don't worry, PB's anti Starmer fans will find something to criticise him for.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,032
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Thank you Sir Keir Starmer, you're the best.

    EXCL: Downing Street could use delaying tactics to block Andy Burnham from storming back into Parliament as Labour braces for an election bloodbath.

    Labour MPs have been told No10 could drag out any by-election for months – even if an MP quit to hand the Greater Manchester Mayor a safe seat.

    Insiders told The Sun ministers could simply refuse to move the Commons writ needed to formally trigger the vote, leaving any seat sitting empty while freezing Mr Burnham out of Westminster.

    https://x.com/martinabettt/status/2052271942120403337

    If Burnham's ego is big enough, he should try a Macron-style reverse takeover and leave the Labour party, stand as an independent, and then invite Labour MPs to defect to him.
    We could do with a PM with serious balls
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,853
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What if Labour dont do quite as badly as predicted?

    That might be one reason for plotters to move fast before the results are in.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,469
    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,568
    nico67 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Thank you Sir Keir Starmer, you're the best.

    EXCL: Downing Street could use delaying tactics to block Andy Burnham from storming back into Parliament as Labour braces for an election bloodbath.

    Labour MPs have been told No10 could drag out any by-election for months – even if an MP quit to hand the Greater Manchester Mayor a safe seat.

    Insiders told The Sun ministers could simply refuse to move the Commons writ needed to formally trigger the vote, leaving any seat sitting empty while freezing Mr Burnham out of Westminster.

    https://x.com/martinabettt/status/2052271942120403337

    Are there any safe seats for Labour outside of London ?
    Some of the Liverpool seats but I could see a Green candidate using Burnham privatising the NHS as a way to win.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542
    Where's the poll check link for 4 lab seats?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,691
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Thank you Sir Keir Starmer, you're the best.

    EXCL: Downing Street could use delaying tactics to block Andy Burnham from storming back into Parliament as Labour braces for an election bloodbath.

    Labour MPs have been told No10 could drag out any by-election for months – even if an MP quit to hand the Greater Manchester Mayor a safe seat.

    Insiders told The Sun ministers could simply refuse to move the Commons writ needed to formally trigger the vote, leaving any seat sitting empty while freezing Mr Burnham out of Westminster.

    https://x.com/martinabettt/status/2052271942120403337

    Trouble with all this is it risks making Andy seem ever more appealing. Like an illicit drug. Or an unattainable dream date.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    edited May 7
    williamglenn said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What if Labour dont do quite as badly as predicted?

    That might be one reason for plotters to move fast before the results are in.
    I have this funny feeling that we might see Reform and Green not doing quite as well as thought, SNP and Plaid winming but not knocking it out the park and Labour holding on a bit better in places like London. So a messy picture which leaves a load of confused people if it right to go for the king in case they miss.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,138
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Thank you Sir Keir Starmer, you're the best.

    EXCL: Downing Street could use delaying tactics to block Andy Burnham from storming back into Parliament as Labour braces for an election bloodbath.

    Labour MPs have been told No10 could drag out any by-election for months – even if an MP quit to hand the Greater Manchester Mayor a safe seat.

    Insiders told The Sun ministers could simply refuse to move the Commons writ needed to formally trigger the vote, leaving any seat sitting empty while freezing Mr Burnham out of Westminster.

    https://x.com/martinabettt/status/2052271942120403337

    Confused, who are these insiders? I thought the issue is that Bandy urnham is an outsider
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,260
    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Where's the poll check link for 4 lab seats?

    https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/welsh_polling/senedd_polling/senedd-2026-seat-calculator
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,260
    Chris said:

    bondegezou said:

    There are lots of different hantaviruses: 37 characterised species and plenty more that hasn't been classified yet. Hantaviruses are found primarily in rodents and are generally spreading from rodent to rodent. Some of these can be transmitted from rodent to human. Most, however, can't then spread from a human to another human. The only one that we're certain can do that is Andes virus. Even then, I think most Andes virus cases are still zoonotic.

    Wikipedia provides an interesting example of the evolution of "received wisdom".

    On 12 January this year, the article on "Andes Virus" read:
    "Human-to-human transmission of Andes virus was first claimed to be a part of a 1996 outbreak in southern Argentina. Since then, there have been continual claims that it can spread from person to person.[12] It can reportedly spread through saliva, airborne droplets from coughing or sneezing, breastmilk, from mother to child across the placenta, and through the digestive tract.[4][7] Person-to-person transmission reportedly occurs mainly within families or when engaging in close activities with an infected person during the prodromal disease phase.[7] A 2021 systematic review, however, found these claims not to be supported by sufficient evidence and cited flawed methodology in research on Andes virus outbreaks.[12]"

    Now it says:
    "In 1996, human-to-human transmission of Andes virus (ANDV) was first identified during an outbreak in El Bolsón, southern Argentina.[13]. This, and subsequent outbreaks in the region, confirmed that Andes virus is unique among American hantaviruses for its capacity to spread between humans. The outbreak involved 16 cases in which epidemiological links were established between person-to-person transmission, often with a roughly three-week interval between cases.[14]"

    The current reference [13] is dated today. The old reference [12] to a systematic review has been deleted. Fair enough in one way, as it seems clear now that there has been person-to-person transmission this year. But until a month ago, anyone turning to Wikipedia for information would have got the impression science had debunked the idea.
    Surely "not to be supported by sufficient evidence" doesn't mean debunked, it means it may or may not occur but there is insufficient evidence.
This discussion has been closed.

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