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The grim reality of the leadership of Starmer & Badenoch – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,175
edited May 7 in General
The grim reality of the leadership of Starmer & Badenoch – politicalbetting.com

Fair caveat here — the definition of “good” is purely against current polling expectations. Obviously if Reform gains 1,000 seats from basically nothing, it can simultaneously be great for Reform *and* lower than polling suggested https://t.co/PVJqmTz192

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,480
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    first

    I demand a recount!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,606
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    first

    I demand a recount!
    Fake news.

    You are first.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,144
    Why don’t you just close old posts to comments when a new thread starts?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,035
    Too much nuance in the thread header. Nuance is utter woke nonsense
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,480
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    first

    I demand a recount!
    Fake news.

    You are first.
    Which won't be the case when the result is declared tomorrow!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,380
    After the scandals of Zack's comments on the Golders Green stabbing and Nigel's nice little earner, surely Kemi & Keir will sweep the board?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,244
    If Reform only gain around 1,000 councillors then that implies that they've won fewer councillors in this election than Labour and/or the Greens, which would further suggest that they're very flattered by the opinion polls.

    So I disagree with Luke Tryl on that. Objectively it would be a step backwards compared to where we thought support for Reform was at.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,144
    Hopefully this will be the end of Sir Keir. The government is completely without purpose or drive and must go.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,144
    edited May 7
    Duplicate
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,144
    Labour have allowed crime to run rampant in our capital, whilst the Conservatives are concreting over our green spaces,' @Nigel_Farage tells @theLDNstandard
    'Voters have a chance to deliver real change in London.'

    https://x.com/nicholascecil/status/2052280846099386372

    Truly the NIMBY party. I cannot vote for something like that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,480
    So the expectation is that the LibDems will win more seats than the Conservatives.

    So Tories 4th in seats won. Not a great look for Kemi.

    Of course, it is NEV that is the 'true' result. They might be 4th on that measure too.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,991
    FPT…
    IanB2 said:

    numbertwelve said:

    isam said:

    When the results are going to be declared

    https://x.com/ekajcw/status/2052111317872296162?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I think I’ll miss the early declarations. A shame as the build-up, rumours and first results are often the most exciting moments but with the results so spread out this year I can’t really justify staying up late when a lot of the action is tomorrow.

    I might catch an early night and get up early.
    That's probably wise - the earlier results will be some smaller councils that elect by thirds, with the key London Borough results not coming through until the sun is ready to come up. I doubt the media election programmes will have much to talk about other than repetitive speculation.
    Repetitive speculation?! That’s OUR job!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,933
    edited May 7
    Labour and the Conservatives will certainly be the big losers today given the seats up were last fought in 2022 and 2021 when Labour and the Conservatives won the NEV respectively. Reform now lead every poll so should clearly win most seats and will be the main seats today winning seats off both the main parties, the Greens will also hope to take some inner city seats off Labour and the LDs to largely hold their own with a few gains in English local elections and from the SNP in Scotland.

    What Starmer and Kemi will be focusing on is NEV, if Labour are still second on that Starmer can at least say Labour remain the alternative to Farage and Reform. If that is the case (as it was on last year's local elections NEV) then while I expect Kemi to survive some Tory MPs will be asking, if they have now been overtaken as the main party of the right by Reform and are not even the main opposing party to Reform either what are the Kemi Tories now for? A glorified centre right third party version of the LDs? How long can that last? If it is to last it will also likely need some more tactical votes from Labour, LD and Green votes in Tory held seats the Tories would have lost today to Reform, is Kemi the best person to do that longer term? If the Tories are second though Kemi will be fine and the pressure will be on Starmer and even more hopes for the King of the North if he can get back in parliament
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,880
    SandyRentool said:

    So the expectation is that the LibDems will win more seats than the Conservatives.

    So Tories 4th in seats won. Not a great look for Kemi.

    Of course, it is NEV that is the 'true' result. They might be 4th on that measure too.

    I suspect that the Conservatives will be so busy chortling over Labour's woes that they won't notice their own.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,134
    edited May 7
    Labour have form for rallying around the leader (without any enthusiasm) in situations like this so I think it is still plausible that Starmer clings on (particularly if some think waiting for Burnham is the right move).

    I don’t think Starmer has any intention of going willingly and I’m sure moves will be afoot to try and co-ordinate an early show of loyalty from the cabinet as there was earlier this year.

    The key figures are clearly Rayner and Streeting. Rayner coming out against Starmer might not be immediately fatal given she has no cabinet role but it certainly will destabilise matters in the PLP. Streeting resigning/launching a challenge in the next 24-48 hours will mean it is on, and I’d expect Starmer will have to go fairly soon after that
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,306
    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,606
    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,134
    Stuartinromford said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So the expectation is that the LibDems will win more seats than the Conservatives.

    So Tories 4th in seats won. Not a great look for Kemi.

    Of course, it is NEV that is the 'true' result. They might be 4th on that measure too.

    I suspect that the Conservatives will be so busy chortling over Labour's woes that they won't notice their own.
    It would be in keeping with the current Tory Party to interrupt the chaos in Labour with chaos of their own, certainly.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,933
    'A German tourist has won a payout of more than €900 (£850) after he was unable to secure a sun lounger due to other guests reserving them with towels.

    The man, who has not been identified, was on holiday in Greece with his family in 2024, and said he spent 20 minutes a day trying to find a sun lounger, despite waking up at 06:00.

    He then sued his tour operator for allowing the reservation system, arguing the sunbeds were reserved so often, they were unusable.'


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y72g09d7jo
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,743
    FPT.
    numbertwelve said:» show previous quotes
    I think I’ll miss the early declarations. A shame as the build-up, rumours and first results are often the most exciting moments but with the results so spread out this year I can’t really justify staying up late when a lot of the action is tomorrow.

    I might catch an early night and get up early.

    ----

    I really will miss an overnight count in Scotland tonight, and its really annoying it won't be yet again. I think that my favourite GE count will always be 1992 as events unfolded and blew the polling predictions out of the water and then discovering that the only seat the Conservatives gained that night was our constituency seat of Aberdeen South.

    It was the first election Fitaloon and I walked down to the polling booth together after work and voted in after we got married and we did as it turn out both vote Conservative, ironically we never did get around to having the couples 'political conversation' about who we supported or planned to vote for up until during that GE campaign! So tough luck if one of us wanted to claim they had never kissed a Tory!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,624
    As an aside, they should probably ask you to surrender your phone before walking into the polling booth to preserve the secret ballot.

    It's far too easy to "Whatsapp me your voting slip or else" and even if that happens rarely it's one time too many.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,306
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,478
    edited May 7
    numbertwelve said:

    Labour have form for rallying around the leader (without any enthusiasm) in situations like this so I think it is still plausible that Starmer clings on (particularly if some think waiting for Burnham is the right move).

    I don’t think Starmer has any intention of going willingly and I’m sure moves will be afoot to try and co-ordinate an early show of loyalty from the cabinet as there was earlier this year.

    The key figures are clearly Rayner and Streeting. Rayner coming out against Starmer might not be immediately fatal given she has no cabinet role but it certainly will destabilise matters in the PLP. Streeting resigning/launching a challenge in the next 24-48 hours will mean it is on, and I’d expect Starmer will have to go fairly soon after that

    Wes Streeting is hardly going to be popular with those who *don't* want to go through a whole load of upheaval... Under such circumstances I think any one of the pack would have an advantage, my money being on Cooper. Wielding the knife is generally considered a barrier to winning the subsequent contest when it is the Tories, why is it not apparently not so with Labour?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,606
    SandyRentool said:

    So the expectation is that the LibDems will win more seats than the Conservatives.

    So Tories 4th in seats won. Not a great look for Kemi.

    Of course, it is NEV that is the 'true' result. They might be 4th on that measure too.

    Just remember how bad it would be if it wasn't for Badenoch's awesomeness.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,478
    Casino_Royale said:

    I just voted Conservative, because I suspect services would be even worse and council tax even higher if there's a messy result for Hampshire County Council between the LDs and Reform.

    This is not a game.

    The Conservatives were hardly a bastion of seriousness for much of the past five years
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,326
    edited May 7
    According to FON the Greens haven’t seen any poll dip after a less than stellar week for Polanski !

    I’ll be interested to see their vote share . The demographic of local council elections in England tends to skew older so you could argue Reform and the Tories should do a bit better than their national vote share. Added to that Restore are only on the ballot in one council so further room for Reform to add a little .

    The Greens I expect to do worse than their national vote share . Hard to know just how bad Labours result will be , over half their defences are in London and expectations management is it will be a disastrous night .

    Another point of interest is if there’s tactical voting to stop Reform in certain areas which might negate some of those demographic advantages.

    Will we see a total collapse in the Labour vote where the Lib Dem’s are defending ?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,606
    I miss being an activist, I loved knocking up the voters on days like this.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,326
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I miss being an activist, I loved knocking up the voters on days like this.

    You must have had a lot of stamina !!!
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,144
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I miss being an activist, I loved knocking up the voters on days like this.

    Saucy bugger
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,134
    edited May 7
    Cicero said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Labour have form for rallying around the leader (without any enthusiasm) in situations like this so I think it is still plausible that Starmer clings on (particularly if some think waiting for Burnham is the right move).

    I don’t think Starmer has any intention of going willingly and I’m sure moves will be afoot to try and co-ordinate an early show of loyalty from the cabinet as there was earlier this year.

    The key figures are clearly Rayner and Streeting. Rayner coming out against Starmer might not be immediately fatal given she has no cabinet role but it certainly will destabilise matters in the PLP. Streeting resigning/launching a challenge in the next 24-48 hours will mean it is on, and I’d expect Starmer will have to go fairly soon after that

    Wes Streeting is hardly going to be popular with those who *don't* want to go through a whole load of upheaval... Under such circumstances I think any one of the pack would have an advantage, my money being on Cooper. Wielding the knife is generally considered a barrier to winning the subsequent contest when it is the Tories, why is it not apparently not so with Labour?
    I agree that if Streeting triggers a contest it seems inconceivable that there won’t be a reaction to try and find an alternative candidate. That assumes that he doesn’t already have the cabinet sewn up, of course, but I suspect there’s still enough opposition there to try and find an alternative. I am a broken record on this but if I was Miliband, Cooper, Healey in this scenario I might be looking at installing phone lines as a “reluctant” unity candidate…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,933
    Cicero said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Labour have form for rallying around the leader (without any enthusiasm) in situations like this so I think it is still plausible that Starmer clings on (particularly if some think waiting for Burnham is the right move).

    I don’t think Starmer has any intention of going willingly and I’m sure moves will be afoot to try and co-ordinate an early show of loyalty from the cabinet as there was earlier this year.

    The key figures are clearly Rayner and Streeting. Rayner coming out against Starmer might not be immediately fatal given she has no cabinet role but it certainly will destabilise matters in the PLP. Streeting resigning/launching a challenge in the next 24-48 hours will mean it is on, and I’d expect Starmer will have to go fairly soon after that

    Wes Streeting is hardly going to be popular with those who *don't* want to go through a whole load of upheaval... Under such circumstances I think any one of the pack would have an advantage, my money being on Cooper. Wielding the knife is generally considered a barrier to winning the subsequent contest when it is the Tories, why is it not apparently not so with Labour?
    Not always, Thatcher effectively knifed Heath and got the leadership and Rishi Boris and Rishi got it on his second go
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,624
    Cicero said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I just voted Conservative, because I suspect services would be even worse and council tax even higher if there's a messy result for Hampshire County Council between the LDs and Reform.

    This is not a game.

    The Conservatives were hardly a bastion of seriousness for much of the past five years
    This is a vote for Hampshire County Council (or what's left of it) for the next 4 years.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,606
    edited May 7
    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.

    Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.

    So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.

    *Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,624
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.

    Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.

    So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.

    *Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
    Kemi isn't going anywhere.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,480
    Casino_Royale said:

    As an aside, they should probably ask you to surrender your phone before walking into the polling booth to preserve the secret ballot.

    It's far too easy to "Whatsapp me your voting slip or else" and even if that happens rarely it's one time too many.

    People in that situation could always change their vote after taking the photo.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,480
    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    If a contest is triggered, I can't see Starmer trying trying to hold on.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,306
    SandyRentool said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    If a contest is triggered, I can't see Starmer trying trying to hold on.
    Agreed
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,480
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.

    Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.

    So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.

    *Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
    Kemi isn't going anywhere.
    Certainly not to Downing Street.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Labour have form for rallying around the leader (without any enthusiasm) in situations like this so I think it is still plausible that Starmer clings on (particularly if some think waiting for Burnham is the right move).

    I don’t think Starmer has any intention of going willingly and I’m sure moves will be afoot to try and co-ordinate an early show of loyalty from the cabinet as there was earlier this year.

    The key figures are clearly Rayner and Streeting. Rayner coming out against Starmer might not be immediately fatal given she has no cabinet role but it certainly will destabilise matters in the PLP. Streeting resigning/launching a challenge in the next 24-48 hours will mean it is on, and I’d expect Starmer will have to go fairly soon after that

    Wes Streeting is hardly going to be popular with those who *don't* want to go through a whole load of upheaval... Under such circumstances I think any one of the pack would have an advantage, my money being on Cooper. Wielding the knife is generally considered a barrier to winning the subsequent contest when it is the Tories, why is it not apparently not so with Labour?
    Not always, Thatcher effectively knifed Heath and got the leadership and Rishi Boris and Rishi got it on his second go
    Boris knifed himself. Rishi just got bored with trying to stop him self harming.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,426
    Stuartinromford said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So the expectation is that the LibDems will win more seats than the Conservatives.

    So Tories 4th in seats won. Not a great look for Kemi.

    Of course, it is NEV that is the 'true' result. They might be 4th on that measure too.

    I suspect that the Conservatives will be so busy chortling over Labour's woes that they won't notice their own.
    I expect the whole political class will be so marvelling at Labour's collapse that no other story will get much traction.

    "They lost fucking WHERE???" will be the story in the weekend papers. "How can they POSSIBLY keep Starmer now???" This is our Prime Minister we are talking about. Not the LotO or the LotOttO or whatever tag Reform wants to give itself.

    Trump going to China will close down the Iran war, so the excuse of "we can't change a war-time leader" will ring hollow. Lots of Labour folk will be arguing"Look, I can't be any worse". And they may have apoint.

    Or they may be deluded.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,961
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Hopefully this will be the end of Sir Keir. The government is completely without purpose or drive and must go.

    Even the greasy Kevin Maguire says its time to go.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    Casino_Royale said:

    As an aside, they should probably ask you to surrender your phone before walking into the polling booth to preserve the secret ballot.

    It's far too easy to "Whatsapp me your voting slip or else" and even if that happens rarely it's one time too many.

    That would probably put off those under 30 who do vote from bothering to do so.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,326
    One of the more interesting councils to report in the early hours is Hull.

    Currently that has the Lib Dem’s on 29 seats , Labour on 23 and Independents on 5 .

    19 seats are up for election this time .

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,306
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.

    Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.

    So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.

    *Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
    That sets the bar even higher, because it requires coordination and for unhappy MPs to know who the coordination committee are. There still needs to be a substitute Blackman within the plotters, and Kemi has shown a willingness to withdraw the whip, as with Jenrick.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,201
    edited May 7
    squareroot2 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Hopefully this will be the end of Sir Keir. The government is completely without purpose or drive and must go.

    Even the greasy Kevin Maguire says its time to go.
    Nice to see Rob Rinder not putting up with his whataboutery on Monday when discussing anti semitism. With Maguire it was ‘but Muslims’ utter prick

    He’s also a Mackem so doubly retarded
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,201
    Vote Green, get this

    “Venice. Look how they treat Israeli businessman and peace activist Eyal Waldman, who has dedicated his life to peace, employed many Palestinians to foster coexistence, and who lost his daughter and her boyfriend on October 7. It’s just medieval”


    https://x.com/jakewsimons/status/2052261365104914776?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,201
    Vote Green, get this

    “Venice. Look how they treat Israeli businessman and peace activist Eyal Waldman, who has dedicated his life to peace, employed many Palestinians to foster coexistence, and who lost his daughter and her boyfriend on October 7. It’s just medieval”


    https://x.com/jakewsimons/status/2052261365104914776?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,828
    Like the PB Tories I hope Badenoch remains LOTO into the next election. Unlike PB Tories I don't see the transformation from also -ran to Prime Minister in waiting.

    Like PB Tories I hope Starmer is ousted and sooner rather than later.

    Does this make me a PB aTory?
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,201
    edited May 7
    Vote Green, get this. So many green candidates support this stuff and now Zack on Peston too

    “Venice. Look how they treat Israeli businessman and peace activist Eyal Waldman, who has dedicated his life to peace, employed many Palestinians to foster coexistence, and who lost his daughter and her boyfriend on October 7. It’s just medieval”


    https://x.com/jakewsimons/status/2052261365104914776?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,524
    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Ukraine has just hit a Russian military complex at Naro-Fominsk, just 40 miles outside Moscow.

    #explodey
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,306
    MarqueeMark said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So the expectation is that the LibDems will win more seats than the Conservatives.

    So Tories 4th in seats won. Not a great look for Kemi.

    Of course, it is NEV that is the 'true' result. They might be 4th on that measure too.

    I suspect that the Conservatives will be so busy chortling over Labour's woes that they won't notice their own.
    I expect the whole political class will be so marvelling at Labour's collapse that no other story will get much traction.

    "They lost fucking WHERE???" will be the story in the weekend papers. "How can they POSSIBLY keep Starmer now???" This is our Prime Minister we are talking about. Not the LotO or the LotOttO or whatever tag Reform wants to give itself.

    Trump going to China will close down the Iran war, so the excuse of "we can't change a war-time leader" will ring hollow. Lots of Labour folk will be arguing"Look, I can't be any worse". And they may have apoint.

    Or they may be deluded.
    Not just the losses, they are baked in, it will be the wipeouts, zero seats won in Sunderland and/or Wigan and/or St Helens and/or Barnsley and/or Tameside (and so forth).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Courts data casts doubt on need for jury reforms

    Increased sitting days and higher crown court disposal rates are successfully reducing the backlog of cases

    Nick Goodwin jumped into the deep end of the row over the government’s plans for jury trials as the courts boss last week gave evidence to MPs.

    The chief executive of HM Courts and Tribunals Service probably did not intend to prod the hornet’s nest when he simply dished dry technical statistics about disposal rates in the crown courts of England and Wales.

    Those rates, Goodwin told the committee, relate to the number of cases the courts get through on any given day. “At the moment,” he said, the rate had ascribed to it a figure of 1.06. “We assumed it would be 1.0,” Goodwin continued, adding, “what you are seeing even in that marginal increase is that we are getting both more sittings and a higher disposal rate. That is a really powerful thing.”

    Even more powerful when combined with figures disclosed last month that showed that the government’s move to lift the cap on the number of judicial sitting days had significantly reduced the backlog in key regions of England and Wales.

    Goodwin’s revelation suggests that two key metrics indicate that the backlog — which has rocketed since the coronavirus pandemic lockdowns — can be brought down by pressing administrative buttons that do not involve tampering with the historic right to jury trials.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/law/article/courts-data-casts-doubt-on-need-for-jury-reforms-sjgqd93pw

    That justice for all but the most complicated crimes is delivered in weeks rather than years is at least as important as the process used during the hearing. However its done, whether its changing from jury trials, dramatic investment in courts and judges or simply process improvements speeding up court cases should be the number one priority for the justice system.

    * Two and three are prison capacity and rebuilding probation and rehabilitation services but inevitably those will take longer to change.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,201
    Mexicanpete said:

    Like the PB Tories I hope Badenoch remains LOTO into the next election. Unlike PB Tories I don't see the transformation from also -ran to Prime Minister in waiting.

    Like PB Tories I hope Starmer is ousted and sooner rather than later.

    Does this make me a PB aTory?

    Given you claimed I was and I’ve never voted for them in my life, I’d say so 😀
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,606
    edited May 7
    fitalass said:

    Seriously, why are you still underestimating Kemi Badenoch?! Mike Smithson first spotted the trend of watching the party leaders personal polling even if it did not match or more importantly it was outperforming their party polling back in the run up to the 2007 Holyrood elections?!

    Right now Kemi Badenoch is the most popular party leader in the polls and clearly outperforming Nigel Farage even if that has not yet fed into her party's headling polling. More than one pollster has picked up and commented on her rising popularity in focus groups. How on earth can you compare that to Keir Starmer's very clear and growing negative drag on Labour polling with his own irretrievable and really poor personal poll ratings?!

    Why on earth would any party want to ditch a leader who was clearly more popular than their own party right now if they wanted to build on and stage a longer term come back in the run up to the next GE in 2/3 years time?! Why would you get rid of your biggest asset and one that was making voters finally give your new leader and party another look so early after such a historically massive GE defeat nearly two years ago?!

    It was noticable that Kemi Badenoch was was all over the Scottish Conservative leaflets while Keir Starmer was invisible.

    Focus groups are glorified subsamples.

    OGH would tell you that Badenoch's not in Cameron's class, she's only looking good because Starmer's so dire (look at the share not the lead as Sir Bob Worcester used to say.)

    At various points she's polling worse than the worst LOTOs in the last 50 years.

    Corbyn never lost as many councillors at his worst than Badenoch did in 2025 and is likely to lose in 2026.

    People say this is the mot unpopular government in history, so why isn't Kemi doing better?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,933
    fitalass said:

    Seriously, why are you still underestimating Kemi Badenoch?! Mike Smithson first spotted the trend of watching the party leaders personal polling even if it did not match or more importantly it was outperforming their party polling back in the run up to the 2007 Holyrood elections?!

    Right now Kemi Badenoch is the most popular party leader in the polls and clearly outperforming Nigel Farage even if that has not yet fed into her party's headling polling. More than one pollster has picked up and commented on her rising popularity in focus groups. How on earth can you compare that to Keir Starmer's very clear and growing negative drag on Labour polling with his own irretrievable and really poor personal poll ratings?!

    Why on earth would any party want to ditch a leader who was clearly more popular than their own party right now if they wanted to build on and stage a longer term come back in the run up to the next GE in 2/3 years time?! Why would you get rid of your biggest asset and one that was making voters finally give your new leader and party another look so early after such a historically massive GE defeat nearly two years ago?!

    It was noticable that Kemi Badenoch was was all over the Scottish Conservative leaflets while Keir Starmer was invisible.

    Problem is that popularity is mainly with Reform voters, who will stick with Farage and the Tory core vote.

    Cleverly polls better net than Kemi with Labour, LD and Green voters as Yougov found and the Tories need their tactical votes in Tory held seats to beat Reform
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,933
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Hopefully this will be the end of Sir Keir. The government is completely without purpose or drive and must go.

    If Labour are second on NEV Starmer survives
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,828
    Taz said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Like the PB Tories I hope Badenoch remains LOTO into the next election. Unlike PB Tories I don't see the transformation from also -ran to Prime Minister in waiting.

    Like PB Tories I hope Starmer is ousted and sooner rather than later.

    Does this make me a PB aTory?

    Given you claimed I was and I’ve never voted for them in my life, I’d say so 😀
    We are all PB Tories now.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,201
    Mexicanpete said:

    Taz said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Like the PB Tories I hope Badenoch remains LOTO into the next election. Unlike PB Tories I don't see the transformation from also -ran to Prime Minister in waiting.

    Like PB Tories I hope Starmer is ousted and sooner rather than later.

    Does this make me a PB aTory?

    Given you claimed I was and I’ve never voted for them in my life, I’d say so 😀
    We are all PB Tories now.
    I’m Spartacus
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,202
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.

    Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.

    So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.

    *Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
    Kemi isn't going anywhere.
    Good morning

    Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29

    Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast

    Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road

    The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,828
    HYUFD said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Hopefully this will be the end of Sir Keir. The government is completely without purpose or drive and must go.

    If Labour are second on NEV Starmer survives
    That being so many who would be happy to see anything but Ref and Con governments and councils are casting our vote elsewhere from Labour. At the Senedd elections I am voting for your party of choice (the Green Welsh Nationalist Tories).
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 106
    Casino_Royale said:

    Cicero said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I just voted Conservative, because I suspect services would be even worse and council tax even higher if there's a messy result for Hampshire County Council between the LDs and Reform.

    This is not a game.

    The Conservatives were hardly a bastion of seriousness for much of the past five years
    This is a vote for Hampshire County Council (or what's left of it) for the next 4 years.
    ...er, two years. Shadow unitaries next year
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,326
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.

    Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.

    So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.

    *Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
    Kemi isn't going anywhere.
    Good morning

    Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29

    Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast

    Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road

    The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
    I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,661
    Seems Saudi Arabia holds some cards. The US has never been so isolated.

    President Donald Trump’s abrupt reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after a key Gulf ally suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, according to two U.S. officials.

    Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom”, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort.

    A call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue, the two U.S. officials said, forcing the president to pause Project Freedom in order to restore U.S. military access to the critical airspace.-NBC News


    https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3ml7sfizcsc22
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,202
    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.

    Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.

    So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.

    *Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
    Kemi isn't going anywhere.
    Good morning

    Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29

    Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast

    Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road

    The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
    I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
    Fair comment
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,498
    Dopermean said:

    Thoughts with all PBers who'll have a less competent council after the weekend and the councillors who'll lose despite having valiantly struggled to keep providing services with ever tighter funding.

    If those councillors are Labour or Conservative and allowed their parties to centralise power at Westminster over recent decades, stuff them.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,661
    Off to vote for Holyrood where remarkably none of the parties give me any reason to vote for them, even though I want to.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,486
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I miss being an activist, I loved knocking up the voters on days like this.

    Nothing worse than being woken up on election day by a pair of knockers.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,034
    FPT:
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just to avoid any doxxing.

    I am banning on PB any links to articles written by Sean Thomas.

    Anyone failing to adhere to this rule will be banned.

    An unauthordox approach?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,486
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Dopermean said:

    Thoughts with all PBers who'll have a less competent council after the weekend and the councillors who'll lose despite having valiantly struggled to keep providing services with ever tighter funding.

    If those councillors are Labour or Conservative and allowed their parties to centralise power at Westminster over recent decades, stuff them.
    This being the Labour Party who delivered Scottish and Welsh devolution, a rejuvenated Northern Ireand assembly, the London Mayoralty and assembly and increased powers for metro mayors?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,828
    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.

    Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.

    So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.

    *Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
    Kemi isn't going anywhere.
    Good morning

    Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29

    Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast

    Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road

    The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
    I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
    She has taken the Conservative Party in entirely the wrong direction. Out Faraging, Farage will not save One Nation Conservatism.

    This is why by comparison to Badenoch, HYUFD is right about Cleverly.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,486
    Benpointer said:

    FPT:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just to avoid any doxxing.

    I am banning on PB any links to articles written by Sean Thomas.

    Anyone failing to adhere to this rule will be banned.

    An unauthordox approach?
    Sean but not heard?

    I've never heard of the guy anyway.

    (I know this is not how you pronounce Sean).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,440
    Casino_Royale said:

    I just voted Conservative, because I suspect services would be even worse and council tax even higher if there's a messy result for Hampshire County Council between the LDs and Reform.

    This is not a game.

    https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/polling-projections-for-hampshires-county-elections-point-to-a-political-earthquake-8505852
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,326
    Mexicanpete said:

    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.

    Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.

    So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.

    *Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
    Kemi isn't going anywhere.
    Good morning

    Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29

    Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast

    Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road

    The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
    I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
    She has taken the Conservative Party in entirely the wrong direction. Out Faraging, Farage will not save One Nation Conservatism.

    This is why by comparison to Badenoch, HYUFD is right about Cleverly.
    I don’t mind Cleverly but I expect he’ll try for London Mayor . Even the worst of the Tories is better than Reform .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,440
    Cicero said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I just voted Conservative, because I suspect services would be even worse and council tax even higher if there's a messy result for Hampshire County Council between the LDs and Reform.

    This is not a game.

    The Conservatives were hardly a bastion of seriousness for much of the past five years
    The Hampshire Tory promise to spend money (if they win) taking the government to judicial review over the local government re-organisation proposals, because they didn't get the boundaries they wanted, is hardly sensible, either. I expect they know they won't get the chance to actually do it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,035
    The Supreme Court (UK) is ruling on some Windsor Framework related stuff today.

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2025-0013

    I don’t know or care about the detail
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,743
    edited May 7
    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    Seriously, why are you still underestimating Kemi Badenoch?! Mike Smithson first spotted the trend of watching the party leaders personal polling even if it did not match or more importantly it was outperforming their party polling back in the run up to the 2007 Holyrood elections?!

    Right now Kemi Badenoch is the most popular party leader in the polls and clearly outperforming Nigel Farage even if that has not yet fed into her party's headling polling. More than one pollster has picked up and commented on her rising popularity in focus groups. How on earth can you compare that to Keir Starmer's very clear and growing negative drag on Labour polling with his own irretrievable and really poor personal poll ratings?!

    Why on earth would any party want to ditch a leader who was clearly more popular than their own party right now if they wanted to build on and stage a longer term come back in the run up to the next GE in 2/3 years time?! Why would you get rid of your biggest asset and one that was making voters finally give your new leader and party another look so early after such a historically massive GE defeat nearly two years ago?!

    It was noticable that Kemi Badenoch was was all over the Scottish Conservative leaflets while Keir Starmer was invisible.

    Problem is that popularity is mainly with Reform voters, who will stick with Farage and the Tory core vote.

    Cleverly polls better net than Kemi with Labour, LD and Green voters as Yougov found and the Tories need their tactical votes in Tory held seats to beat Reform
    Sorry HYUFD, but as we say in Scotland you are talking utter mince! Reform have already peaked in the polls despite their electoral performance over the next 24hrs in the English locals and Devolved Parliaments as the current Labour Government continues to implode.

    The momentum is with Kemi Badenoch while Farage's own personal polling continues to fall as the shine comes off his latest reincarnation as the unelected leader of the Reform party which he owns and treats like the political party fiefdoms as he did with the revolving doors of UKIP and the Brexit Party. Already Reform is leaking members to Advance, Restore and back to the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch.

    I am going to predict that Farage won't even hang around long enough to fight the next GE as Reform leader and the Conservative MPs who jumped ship too soon and defected are going to be left struggling to keep that sinking ship alive by then. I should add that the biggest betting mistake I ever made was not getting a bet on back in the Spring of 2020 that none of the party leaders in charge at Westminster and the devolved governments would around to fight the next GE...



  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,440
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I miss being an activist, I loved knocking up the voters on days like this.

    It tires you out, especially later in life, that's the problem. You can't keep at it all day and it doesn't take very long before you start wishing for a nice sit down doing a bit of gentle telling.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,624
    noneoftheabove said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    As an aside, they should probably ask you to surrender your phone before walking into the polling booth to preserve the secret ballot.

    It's far too easy to "Whatsapp me your voting slip or else" and even if that happens rarely it's one time too many.

    That would probably put off those under 30 who do vote from bothering to do so.
    You put it down for 2 minutes whilst you vote.

    That's it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,202
    edited May 7
    Mexicanpete said:

    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.

    Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.

    So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.

    *Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
    Kemi isn't going anywhere.
    Good morning

    Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29

    Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast

    Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road

    The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
    I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
    She has taken the Conservative Party in entirely the wrong direction. Out Faraging, Farage will not save One Nation Conservatism.

    This is why by comparison to Badenoch, HYUFD is right about Cleverly.
    No

    Kemi is not who you want to make out she is and she tops leader ratings, is growing in popularity, and has seen Jenrick and Braverman defect to reform helping her to lance that boil

    As for Cleverly he sabotaged his own chance and is yesterday's news
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,569
    Casino_Royale said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    As an aside, they should probably ask you to surrender your phone before walking into the polling booth to preserve the secret ballot.

    It's far too easy to "Whatsapp me your voting slip or else" and even if that happens rarely it's one time too many.

    That would probably put off those under 30 who do vote from bothering to do so.
    You put it down for 2 minutes whilst you vote.

    That's it.
    Have you met people under 30?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,877
    Mexicanpete said:

    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.

    Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.

    So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.

    *Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
    Kemi isn't going anywhere.
    Good morning

    Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29

    Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast

    Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road

    The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
    I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
    She has taken the Conservative Party in entirely the wrong direction. Out Faraging, Farage will not save One Nation Conservatism.

    This is why by comparison to Badenoch, HYUFD is right about Cleverly.
    What will save Badenoch is that there are no serious contenders, just has beens like Cleverly and the untried like Lam.

    It is a choice worse than Labours options.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,624
    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I just voted Conservative, because I suspect services would be even worse and council tax even higher if there's a messy result for Hampshire County Council between the LDs and Reform.

    This is not a game.

    https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/polling-projections-for-hampshires-county-elections-point-to-a-political-earthquake-8505852
    Yes, I know.

    One possible outcome (prob making the best of a bad bunch) is a Conservative-LD coalition.

    However, they just might not be able to deal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,701
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Courts data casts doubt on need for jury reforms

    Increased sitting days and higher crown court disposal rates are successfully reducing the backlog of cases

    Nick Goodwin jumped into the deep end of the row over the government’s plans for jury trials as the courts boss last week gave evidence to MPs.

    The chief executive of HM Courts and Tribunals Service probably did not intend to prod the hornet’s nest when he simply dished dry technical statistics about disposal rates in the crown courts of England and Wales.

    Those rates, Goodwin told the committee, relate to the number of cases the courts get through on any given day. “At the moment,” he said, the rate had ascribed to it a figure of 1.06. “We assumed it would be 1.0,” Goodwin continued, adding, “what you are seeing even in that marginal increase is that we are getting both more sittings and a higher disposal rate. That is a really powerful thing.”

    Even more powerful when combined with figures disclosed last month that showed that the government’s move to lift the cap on the number of judicial sitting days had significantly reduced the backlog in key regions of England and Wales.

    Goodwin’s revelation suggests that two key metrics indicate that the backlog — which has rocketed since the coronavirus pandemic lockdowns — can be brought down by pressing administrative buttons that do not involve tampering with the historic right to jury trials.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/law/article/courts-data-casts-doubt-on-need-for-jury-reforms-sjgqd93pw

    Which is what everyone against scrapping jury trials argued all along.
    The 'efficiency' excuse is pretty well just that - an excuse.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579
    Casino_Royale said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    As an aside, they should probably ask you to surrender your phone before walking into the polling booth to preserve the secret ballot.

    It's far too easy to "Whatsapp me your voting slip or else" and even if that happens rarely it's one time too many.

    That would probably put off those under 30 who do vote from bothering to do so.
    You put it down for 2 minutes whilst you vote.

    That's it.
    Community coercion relies on people being forced to take pictures of their ballot papers to confirm they've voted the "right" way. Making people leave their phones with the volunteers would be a good step to restoring voting privacy.

    The best part about it will be how much the Green party screams about it but won't ever say why they're against it other than vague nonsense about disenfranchisement the same as Labour did with voter ID.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,819
    THIRTEEN HOURS TO SAVE THE LABOUR PARTY!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,701
    Mexicanpete said:

    Taz said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Like the PB Tories I hope Badenoch remains LOTO into the next election. Unlike PB Tories I don't see the transformation from also -ran to Prime Minister in waiting.

    Like PB Tories I hope Starmer is ousted and sooner rather than later.

    Does this make me a PB aTory?

    Given you claimed I was and I’ve never voted for them in my life, I’d say so 😀
    We are all PB Tories now.
    Having never in my life voted Labour, I will be voting for them three times* today, to try to keep Reform out.

    *for the avoidance of doubt, quite legally.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,696
    Morning all :)

    Quiet so far here in the Newham battleground but that will doubtless change as the day heats up..

    The best polling day weather I remember was May 1st 1997 -I was helping out Andrew George in St Ives. 7am telling at the school at the top of town and worked right through (with just an hour'sbreak) until final telling at Zennor from 9pm. To my everlasting shame (or it might have been),I packed up at 9.40pm having not seen a voter for 20 minutes and when my torch battery packed up.

    Still managed to get to St John's Hall in Penzance for the count the next morning.

    Happy days...

    I see we are already playing the expectation management game on here or rather commenting on other dimwits who are trying desperately to spin a bad result as a good result and work out the number of council seats lost or the NEV not obtained as a measure for deciding if their leader can stay. I'm getting ready to board the excuse train as well.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,819
    THIRTEEN HOURS TO SAVE THE TORY PARTY!!
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,149
    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Courts data casts doubt on need for jury reforms

    Increased sitting days and higher crown court disposal rates are successfully reducing the backlog of cases

    Nick Goodwin jumped into the deep end of the row over the government’s plans for jury trials as the courts boss last week gave evidence to MPs.

    The chief executive of HM Courts and Tribunals Service probably did not intend to prod the hornet’s nest when he simply dished dry technical statistics about disposal rates in the crown courts of England and Wales.

    Those rates, Goodwin told the committee, relate to the number of cases the courts get through on any given day. “At the moment,” he said, the rate had ascribed to it a figure of 1.06. “We assumed it would be 1.0,” Goodwin continued, adding, “what you are seeing even in that marginal increase is that we are getting both more sittings and a higher disposal rate. That is a really powerful thing.”

    Even more powerful when combined with figures disclosed last month that showed that the government’s move to lift the cap on the number of judicial sitting days had significantly reduced the backlog in key regions of England and Wales.

    Goodwin’s revelation suggests that two key metrics indicate that the backlog — which has rocketed since the coronavirus pandemic lockdowns — can be brought down by pressing administrative buttons that do not involve tampering with the historic right to jury trials.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/law/article/courts-data-casts-doubt-on-need-for-jury-reforms-sjgqd93pw

    Courts working for more days increases through put for courts?

    Who knew?
    Potential for other step gains as defendants realise they'll get to trial sooner and the case is less likely to collapse there might be more early guilty pleas.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,933
    Foxy said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is the Conservative party VONC threshold still 15% of MPs? I heard talk of them possibly raising it to 30% but browsing around, I'm unsure if it ever came to pass. A higher bar would be very relevant to whether Badenoch faced a challenge or not.

    30% now.
    Once your over that bar you're essentially gone, as previous VONCs have shown, but it will take far longer to get to VONC. Badenoch survives by my reckoning.

    In a way the triggering of a leadership contest is probably slightly easier now in the Labour party, getting 20% to rally around a first mover contender. And if there is a contest I think Starmer is gone in a way that Corbyn wasn't due to a lack of remaining base at that point.

    A similar height of bar between the two parties though.
    An issue that was flagged up to me recently is that plenty of Tory MPs don't trust Bob Blackman in the VONC process.

    Unlike Graham Brady who was considered impartial*, Blackman will be on the blower to Kemi to let her know a letter has arrived and who has sent it.

    So if she is going to be ousted, Tory MPs will wait until they know they have the numbers, so it might come as a big surprise were it to happen.

    *Brady would only tell the vice-chair of the '22 that another letter has arrived without telling them who sent the letter.
    Kemi isn't going anywhere.
    Good morning

    Kemi is the best person in the party to take it to GE29

    Nobody else is close despite the constant noise she is toast

    Just look at her rising ratings and her support within her party and I see no evidence she not only has the support, but would win a vonc if her mps were foolish enough to go down that road

    The one thing she needs is loyallty and not another idiotic leader fight
    I agree it would be crazy to try and remove her now . Eventually her good approval ratings will transfer over to vote share especially as Reform become more toxic . They can’t avoid proper scrutiny forever . I disagree with Badenoch on almost everything but she’s doing a good job in difficult circumstances.
    She has taken the Conservative Party in entirely the wrong direction. Out Faraging, Farage will not save One Nation Conservatism.

    This is why by comparison to Badenoch, HYUFD is right about Cleverly.
    What will save Badenoch is that there are no serious contenders, just has beens like Cleverly and the untried like Lam.

    It is a choice worse than Labours options.
    Labour are looking for the next PM though and Burnham outpolls all other political leaders of any party at present. The Conservatives just need a leader who can stop the party going extinct and Cleverly might get the anti Reform tactical votes for that
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 2,033
    edited May 7
    Taz said:

    Vote Green, get this. So many green candidates support this stuff and now Zack on Peston too

    “Venice. Look how they treat Israeli businessman and peace activist Eyal Waldman, who has dedicated his life to peace, employed many Palestinians to foster coexistence, and who lost his daughter and her boyfriend on October 7. It’s just medieval”


    https://x.com/jakewsimons/status/2052261365104914776?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ

    I don't condone the reaction (dialogue is always better than sloganeering) but would make a couple of points:
    1. Given what I could hear of the dialogue as they shook hands, the protestor didn't know who Waldman was or that Waldman had lost family on Oct 7, he just knew what Waldman told him: "I'm from Israel." So it's hardly fair to judge the protestor's reaction based on Waldman's peace activism.
    2. It's a bit presumptuous of Waldman to go up and shake his hand with cameras on him. To try to take a more dispassionate view - would you feel the same if a Ukrainian father who had lost his son in the war with Russia reacted like that to a Russian person who came up and shook the Ukrainian's hand? (I am presuming the protestor is Palestinian).
    3. Peaceful protest is not 'medieval'.

    I do wish we would all be a bit more measured and less partisan when watching these scenes (this comment is not aimed at you Taz, more the twitter warrior making the post).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,440
    Casino_Royale said:

    Cicero said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I just voted Conservative, because I suspect services would be even worse and council tax even higher if there's a messy result for Hampshire County Council between the LDs and Reform.

    This is not a game.

    The Conservatives were hardly a bastion of seriousness for much of the past five years
    This is a vote for Hampshire County Council (or what's left of it) for the next 4 years.
    Probably more like two years, as abolition is expected by 2028
This discussion has been closed.

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