The man who isn’t even an MP becomes the favourite to be the next Prime Minister

System · May 5

The man who isn’t even an MP becomes the favourite to be the next Prime Minister – politicalbetting.com

I just cannot see any other explanations for this price, perhaps PBers can explain what I am missing, I still think the value is with Wes Streeting especially at this price, purely as a trading bet.

Read the full story here

DavidL · May 5

Starting to panic @TSE?

TheScreamingEagles · May 5

DavidL said:
Starting to panic @TSE?

Nope, one of my strengths is I never panic.

I am definitely a 'and the band played on' kinda guy.

SandyRentool · May 5

The other contenders need to strike on Friday to keep the bugger off the ballot.

eek · May 5

To get to 1 - either Starmer quits and cabinet ministers ignore the rule book and select 1 of their own.

Someone with 81 nominations stands and then after defeating SKS walks away to allow Burnham to become PM.

And Neither of those approaches make any sense

Sweeney74 · May 5

for the upcoming Holyrood adventure, I've been doing some deep dive analysis of polling/MRP, odds tracking, reporting analysis and so on to produce a region by region breakdown giving (for each constituency): Constituency, Current MSP/successor, Boundary inheritance, 2021 notional, Best placed challenger, YouGov MRP signal, Rating.

I can format each region into tables and paste here if there is an appetite for it, I don't want to spam if not.

On the back of the data I've also stuck my neck out and forecast the following:

SNP largest but short of a majority; Reform narrowly second; Labour dependent entirely on list seats. SNP + Green majority.

SNP - 60
Ref - 21
Lab - 15
Con - 13
Grn - 10
LD - 10

Stuartinromford · May 5

But the Telegraph have told us that he's got it in the bag, and newspapers don't make stuff up, do they?

Though 23% probability isn't that probable.

LostPassword · May 5

I think a mix of (2) and (4) is the most likely.

Starmer is a movable object, but the likely contenders to replace him in the PLP are currently looking like very resistible forces. And the advantage for an MP opposed to Starmer favouring Burnham to succeed him is that it provides a cast-iron reason for not moving to oust Starmer straight away - Burnham has to find his way back into the Commons first.

Since inaction is always the easiest option in these sorts of circumstances it's a situation that might persist for quite some time. Or, of course, the betting market could be so terribly wrong when a contest kicks off next week, and Burnham isn't involved.

One question that arises: Suppose Streeting has the backing of 81 MPs and can force a contest after the locals. Does Burnham have enough support among MPs to help Starmer win that contest, or do MPs vote for anyone-but-Starmer regardless?

williamglenn · May 5

Burnham can't be the next PM unless Labour somehow try to stitch it up for him, and the public might have other ideas, not matter how safe a seat they find for him.

LostPassword · May 5

Sweeney74 said:
for the upcoming Holyrood adventure, I've been doing some deep dive analysis of polling/MRP, odds tracking, reporting analysis and so on to produce a region by region breakdown giving (for each constituency): Constituency, Current MSP/successor, Boundary inheritance, 2021 notional, Best placed challenger, YouGov MRP signal, Rating.

I can format each region into tables and paste here if there is an appetite for it, I don't want to spam if not.

On the back of the data I've also stuck my neck out and forecast the following:

SNP largest but short of a majority; Reform narrowly second; Labour dependent entirely on list seats. SNP + Green majority.

SNP - 60
Ref - 21
Lab - 15
Con - 13
Grn - 10
LD - 10

Sounds like a good basis for a thread header article.

MikeL · May 5

The answer is principally 2) plus also a bit of 3).

Firstly Labour is likely to outperform low expectations on Thursday.

Secondly Labour MPs have realised that Rayner will be worse than Starmer. Ed Miliband is key and there have been reports he doesn't think Rayner is suitable as PM.

Labour MPs know that if they want to avoid Rayner they must not trigger a contest.

The risk is if Streeting challenges and gets nominated, what do the rest of the MPs do? If they keep their cool they unite around Starmer and he sees off Streeting easily. The danger is if they panic and a wider contest develops which Rayner then wins.

williamglenn · May 5

The BBC published an article about an attack on a former synagogue quoting a local resident saying, "That synagogue has been turned into a mosque so I don't know why someone would petrol bomb it."

They then updated it to say simply that he did not know why someone would do that.

Original screenshot: https://x.com/R_Langer/status/2051636040532635994

Current article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89370yygx5o

Taz · May 5

williamglenn said:
The BBC published an article about an attack on a former synagogue quoting a local resident saying, "That synagogue has been turned into a mosque so I don't know why someone would petrol bomb it."

They then updated it to say simply that he did not know why someone would do that.

Original screenshot: https://x.com/R_Langer/status/2051636040532635994

Current article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89370yygx5o

The BBC seem to be part of the problem not the solution.

Edit it out, don’t call it out.

Sweeney74 · May 5

Green candidate suggested Israel was behind October 7 attacks
Joe Belcher, who was suspended by the party in 2024 over his comments, has been allowed to stand for the Rushall-Shelfield seat in Walsall at the local elections

A Green Party candidate who was suspended for suggesting that Israel may have paid Hamas to carry out the October 7 attacks has been allowed to run at the upcoming local elections.
Joe Belcher, a Green candidate for Rushall-Shelfield in Walsall, was suspended by the party and blocked from running to be the MP for Aldridge-Brownhills in 2024 after a series of social media posts were uncovered.
Posts made by the Green candidate questioned why Hamas would have “sold their people down the river” by attacking Israel.

AnneJGP · May 5

Maybe an outbreak of they must know something I don't.

Cyclefree · May 5

I think only people who know about Millom and have spent time here should be PM.

Oh @algarkirk the hub of the place is not the train station - though its museum and cafe are nice. There is a very good cafe in town with excellent coffee and cakes and a new tea and cake shop has opened and a gym. Plus two excellent seaside cafes on Silecroft and Haverigg beaches.

Anyway that puts me and my husband, planning barrister with intelligent thoughts about planning, local government and house building and also Chair of the Norman Nicholson Society, in pole position. Closely followed by @algarkirk.

We could probably create an intelligent and competent Cabinet from PB'ers, with Away Days in my garden.

dixiedean · May 5

Fpt.
Surprised anyone on here hasn't heard of Million.
It's @Cyclefree's gardening locale.
She's mentioned it more than once.

rottenborough · May 5

Caroline Lucas
@CarolineLucas
·
1h
Statements that have now come to light from a handful of
@TheGreenParty
candidates are totally unacceptable & require immediate action. There’s no place for anti-semitism or any hate speech in the party. This is a society-wide problem & needs to be rooted out wherever it’s found

https://x.com/CarolineLucas/status/2051641209458667895

Cyclefree · May 5

There's worse

dixiedean · May 5

Cyclefree said:
I think only people who know about Millom and have spent time here should be PM.

Oh @algarkirk the hub of the place is not the train station - though its museum and cafe are nice. There is a very good cafe in town with excellent coffee and cakes and a new tea and cake shop has opened and a gym. Plus two excellent seaside cafes on Silecroft and Haverigg beaches.

Anyway that puts me and my husband, planning barrister with intelligent thoughts about planning, local government and house building and also Chair of the Norman Nicholson Society, in pole position. Closely followed by @algarkirk.

We could probably create an intelligent and competent Cabinet from PB'ers, with Away Days in my garden.

I have.
Fourth interesting fact.
The oldest amateur Rugby League club in the world is Millom.

Cyclefree · May 5

dixiedean said:
Fpt.
Surprised anyone on here hasn't heard of Million.
It's @Cyclefree's gardening locale.
She's mentioned it more than once.

I don't live there. It's my nearest town. I regularly walk in the Hodbarrow bird reserve and along the coast path though sadly our dog died earlier this year and as it was one of his favourite walks it feels sad being there without him

NickPalmer · May 5

2 or 3, I think. I can't see Streeting winning unless there's no contest.

Wulfrun_Phil · May 5

Option 4.

FrancisUrquhart · May 5

Starmer attacks Arts Council for funding ‘anti-Semitism’

PM launches review to ‘suspend, withdraw and claw back’ grants from organisations that provide a platform for anti-Jewish hate

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/05/keir-starmer-attacks-arts-council-england-anti-semitism/

Like the marches, has he only just noticed?

dixiedean · May 5

Isn't Streeting's main drawback that he's perceived to be continuity Starmer?

bondegezou · May 5

FPT...

theProle said:

nico67 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Kemi, defending Tommy Robinson is not a good look, there’s a reason why even Farage avoids him like the plague.

"There is something very specific happening to Jewish communities”

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says she supports a moratorium on pro-Palestinian marches but not for the march led by far-right activist Tommy Robinson later this month

https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/2050890953246834762?s=46
If you’re going to ban one then you ban the other aswell .
What's Robinson done that's actually illegal, other than the contempt of court stuff? I grant you he's good at dog-whistling to thugs, but I think he's fairly careful not to do anything that would get him nicked for incitement.

The issue with the pro-Palestinian marches is that there's been a lot of stuff which crosses that line, and the plod don't seem very interested in doing anything about it.

What's Robinson done that's illegal? This is stuff he's been found guilty of in court, unless otherwise specified.

2003: assaulted a police officer
2011: threatening, abusive or insulting behaviour ("Robinson reportedly led the group of Luton fans and played an integral part in starting a 100-man brawl, during which he chanted, "EDL till I die."")
2011: re-arrested while on bail for breaking bail conditions by attending another English Defence League demonstration
2011: assault (of another EDL member)
2011: illegal protest on rooftop of the FIFA building in Zurich
2012: use of a false passport
2012: mortgage fraud
2017: contempt of court (filming and posting about an ongoing trial)
2018: another contempt of court
2018: libelled a Syrian refugee child
2020: arrested for breaking COVID-19 lockdown rules (unclear if this led to a fine, charge or what)
2021: stalking a journalist
2022: fined for failing to appear in court over proceedings related to his declaring bankruptcy in 2021
2024: investigation started into Robinson's alleged role in inciting the Southport riots - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: investigation started into his tax affairs - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: contempt of court (repeating the 2018 libel)
2024: harrassing two more journalists: charged in 2025, trial due later this year

bondegezou · May 5

FPT...

Cookie said:

kjh said:
A referendum was held to name the new leisure centre in Millom.

The winning name was, wait for it, Millom Leisure Centre.

Makes you proud to be British.
I've just looked this up on the BBC.

If I may be forgiven for reading far too much into a story - this illustrates a fundamental chasm in British society. The tone of the story is very much "ha ha, look at the thickies from the regions who called their leisure centre a leisure centre" - but I would suggest that the vast majority of the country, in Millom and elsewhere, prefer their leisure centres called things like "Millom Leisure Centre". As the vote shows. We are, however, governed by the sorts of earnest people who do not agree.

I was once in one of those market research focus groups and they wanted us to come up with a name for an amusement park based on a building block toy. "You mean Lego?," we asked. "We can't divulge the name of the client," they said. We said, "But you mean Lego?" They admitted they meant Lego. "Well, why not just call it Legoland?," we suggested. "We've been asked to investigate other names," they said. So, we brainstormed other names for half an hour. (I came up with "Allegory", which I liked.) Today, you can go visit Legoland Windsor.

Sweeney74 · May 5

LostPassword said:

Sweeney74 said:
for the upcoming Holyrood adventure, I've been doing some deep dive analysis of polling/MRP, odds tracking, reporting analysis and so on to produce a region by region breakdown giving (for each constituency): Constituency, Current MSP/successor, Boundary inheritance, 2021 notional, Best placed challenger, YouGov MRP signal, Rating.

I can format each region into tables and paste here if there is an appetite for it, I don't want to spam if not.

On the back of the data I've also stuck my neck out and forecast the following:

SNP largest but short of a majority; Reform narrowly second; Labour dependent entirely on list seats. SNP + Green majority.

SNP - 60
Ref - 21
Lab - 15
Con - 13
Grn - 10
LD - 10
Sounds like a good basis for a thread header article.

As an example, here is the table for Edinburgh and Lothians East

Constituency	Current MSP / successor	Boundary inheritance	2021 notional	Best placed challenger	YouGov MRP signal	Rating
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs	Paul McLennan (SNP)	same area	SNP	Lab	SNP +6 vs Lab	SNP competitive
Edinburgh Central	Angus Robertson (SNP)	Edinburgh Central 73%; Edinburgh Southern 27%	SNP	Green	SNP +0 vs Green	toss-up
Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent	Ash Regan (Ind); main predecessor Edinburgh Eastern	Edinburgh Eastern 46%; Midlothian North and Musselburgh 37%; East Lothian 16%	SNP	Lab	SNP +11 vs Lab	SNP lean
Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith	Ben Macpherson (SNP); main predecessor Edinburgh Northern and Leith	Edinburgh Northern and Leith 66%; Edinburgh Eastern 34%	SNP	Lab	SNP +18 vs Lab	SNP lean
Edinburgh North Western	Alex Cole-Hamilton (LD)	Edinburgh Western 84%; Edinburgh Central 13%	LD	SNP	LD +34 vs SNP	LD likely
Edinburgh Northern	Ben Macpherson (SNP); main predecessor Edinburgh Northern and Leith	Edinburgh Northern and Leith 55%; Edinburgh Central 23%; Edinburgh Western 22%	SNP	LD	SNP +12 vs LD	SNP lean
Edinburgh South Western	Gordon MacDonald (SNP)	Edinburgh Pentlands 80%; Edinburgh Southern 20%	SNP	Lab	SNP +21 vs Lab	SNP likely
Edinburgh Southern	Daniel Johnson (Lab)	Edinburgh Southern 49%; Edinburgh Eastern 40%; Edinburgh Pentlands 11%	LAB	SNP	SNP +6 vs Lab	SNP competitive
Midlothian North	Colin Beattie (SNP)	Midlothian North and Musselburgh 92%; Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale 8%	SNP	Lab	SNP +16 vs Lab	SNP lean

isam · May 5

Kemi leading the way with Opinium

For Kemi Badenoch, the picture is much stronger:

🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes
🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2)
🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals

https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/2051653717686972420?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Taz · May 5

Labour improving in London from this.

https://x.com/poll_checker/status/2051625490868252999?s=61

Taz · May 5

Labour improving in London from this.

https://x.com/poll_checker/status/2051625490868252999?s=61

Mexicanpete · May 5

FrancisUrquhart said:
Starmer attacks Arts Council for funding ‘anti-Semitism’

PM launches review to ‘suspend, withdraw and claw back’ grants from organisations that provide a platform for anti-Jewish hate

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/05/keir-starmer-attacks-arts-council-england-anti-semitism/

Like the marches, has he only just noticed?

Are you banning all solidarity with Gaza marches or just selective ones?

FrancisUrquhart · May 5

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Starmer attacks Arts Council for funding ‘anti-Semitism’

PM launches review to ‘suspend, withdraw and claw back’ grants from organisations that provide a platform for anti-Jewish hate

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/05/keir-starmer-attacks-arts-council-england-anti-semitism/

Like the marches, has he only just noticed?
Are you banning all solidarity with Gaza marches or just selective ones?

I am not advocating banning anything, its Starmer that is wittering on about that. But its all positioning, he knows he cant ban them without effecting lots of others ability to protest and its in his DNA as a human rights lawyer to take the opposite stance e.g. he used to be big supporter of such rights for the likes of XR to protest. At worst they will come up with requiring more paperwork be filed so more process to be followed.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 5

Vodafone Group to buy out CK Hutchison’s stake in VodafoneThree. To the surprise of nobody.

Goodbye Three.

Mexicanpete · May 5

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Starmer attacks Arts Council for funding ‘anti-Semitism’

PM launches review to ‘suspend, withdraw and claw back’ grants from organisations that provide a platform for anti-Jewish hate

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/05/keir-starmer-attacks-arts-council-england-anti-semitism/

Like the marches, has he only just noticed?
Are you banning all solidarity with Gaza marches or just selective ones?
I am not advocating banning anything, its Starmer that is wittering on about that. But its all positioning, he knows he cant ban them without effecting lots of others ability to protest and its in his DNA as a human rights lawyer to take the opposite stance e.g. he used to be big supporter of such rights for the likes of XR to protest. At worst they will come up with requiring more paperwork be filed.

I don't advocate anti-Semitism in any way, shape or form. Although, to date I would be critical of Starmer for being ludicrously authoritarian over Palestine Action.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 5

isam said:
Kemi leading the way with Opinium

For Kemi Badenoch, the picture is much stronger:

🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes
🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2)
🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals

https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/2051653717686972420?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Burnham or Streeting vs Badenoch for 2029.

FrancisUrquhart · May 5

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
Vodafone Group to buy out CK Hutchison’s stake in VodafoneThree. To the surprise of nobody.

Goodbye Three.

Whats left EE, O2 and Vodafone as the only network providers?

carnforth · May 5

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

isam said:
Kemi leading the way with Opinium

For Kemi Badenoch, the picture is much stronger:

🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes
🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2)
🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals

https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/2051653717686972420?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Burnham or Streeting vs Badenoch for 2029.

Streeting vs Badenoch would get very feisty.

LostPassword · May 5

Sweeney74 said:

LostPassword said:

Sweeney74 said:
for the upcoming Holyrood adventure, I've been doing some deep dive analysis of polling/MRP, odds tracking, reporting analysis and so on to produce a region by region breakdown giving (for each constituency): Constituency, Current MSP/successor, Boundary inheritance, 2021 notional, Best placed challenger, YouGov MRP signal, Rating.

I can format each region into tables and paste here if there is an appetite for it, I don't want to spam if not.

On the back of the data I've also stuck my neck out and forecast the following:

SNP largest but short of a majority; Reform narrowly second; Labour dependent entirely on list seats. SNP + Green majority.

SNP - 60
Ref - 21
Lab - 15
Con - 13
Grn - 10
LD - 10
Sounds like a good basis for a thread header article.
As an example, here is the table for Edinburgh and Lothians East
Constituency Current MSP / successor Boundary inheritance 2021 notional Best placed challenger YouGov MRP signal Rating
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs Paul McLennan (SNP) same area SNP Lab SNP +6 vs Lab SNP competitive
Edinburgh Central Angus Robertson (SNP) Edinburgh Central 73%; Edinburgh Southern 27% SNP Green SNP +0 vs Green toss-up
Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent Ash Regan (Ind); main predecessor Edinburgh Eastern Edinburgh Eastern 46%; Midlothian North and Musselburgh 37%; East Lothian 16% SNP Lab SNP +11 vs Lab SNP lean
Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith Ben Macpherson (SNP); main predecessor Edinburgh Northern and Leith Edinburgh Northern and Leith 66%; Edinburgh Eastern 34% SNP Lab SNP +18 vs Lab SNP lean
Edinburgh North Western Alex Cole-Hamilton (LD) Edinburgh Western 84%; Edinburgh Central 13% LD SNP LD +34 vs SNP LD likely
Edinburgh Northern Ben Macpherson (SNP); main predecessor Edinburgh Northern and Leith Edinburgh Northern and Leith 55%; Edinburgh Central 23%; Edinburgh Western 22% SNP LD SNP +12 vs LD SNP lean
Edinburgh South Western Gordon MacDonald (SNP) Edinburgh Pentlands 80%; Edinburgh Southern 20% SNP Lab SNP +21 vs Lab SNP likely
Edinburgh Southern Daniel Johnson (Lab) Edinburgh Southern 49%; Edinburgh Eastern 40%; Edinburgh Pentlands 11% LAB SNP SNP +6 vs Lab SNP competitive
Midlothian North Colin Beattie (SNP) Midlothian North and Musselburgh 92%; Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale 8% SNP Lab SNP +16 vs Lab SNP lean

Okay, could be a lot of detail for a thread header. Maybe sling it up on a file-share somewhere?

FrancisUrquhart · May 5

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Starmer attacks Arts Council for funding ‘anti-Semitism’

PM launches review to ‘suspend, withdraw and claw back’ grants from organisations that provide a platform for anti-Jewish hate

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/05/keir-starmer-attacks-arts-council-england-anti-semitism/

Like the marches, has he only just noticed?
Are you banning all solidarity with Gaza marches or just selective ones?
I am not advocating banning anything, its Starmer that is wittering on about that. But its all positioning, he knows he cant ban them without effecting lots of others ability to protest and its in his DNA as a human rights lawyer to take the opposite stance e.g. he used to be big supporter of such rights for the likes of XR to protest. At worst they will come up with requiring more paperwork be filed.
I don't advocate anti-Semitism in any way, shape or form. Although, to date I would be critical of Starmer for being ludicrously authoritarian over Palestine Action.

Speaking of which,

Four Palestine Action activists have been found guilty of criminal damage at a UK site of an Israel-based defence firm.

Charlotte Head, 30, Samuel Corner, 23, Leona Kamio, 30, and Fatema Rajwani, 21, broke into an Elbit Systems factory near Bristol in August 2024 before destroying property and clashing with security guards and police.

BBC News - Palestine Action activists guilty of Elbit Systems site raid - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2p99rxr5po

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 5

https://x.com/robertshrimsley/status/2051671138074267687

Two faces of the Green Party. The new Green party membership has a message for its old leader Caroline Lucas.

The British public do not vote for extremists.

turbotubbs · May 5

bondegezou said:
FPT...

theProle said:

nico67 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Kemi, defending Tommy Robinson is not a good look, there’s a reason why even Farage avoids him like the plague.

"There is something very specific happening to Jewish communities”

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says she supports a moratorium on pro-Palestinian marches but not for the march led by far-right activist Tommy Robinson later this month

https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/2050890953246834762?s=46
If you’re going to ban one then you ban the other aswell .
What's Robinson done that's actually illegal, other than the contempt of court stuff? I grant you he's good at dog-whistling to thugs, but I think he's fairly careful not to do anything that would get him nicked for incitement.

The issue with the pro-Palestinian marches is that there's been a lot of stuff which crosses that line, and the plod don't seem very interested in doing anything about it.
What's Robinson done that's illegal? This is stuff he's been found guilty of in court, unless otherwise specified.

2003: assaulted a police officer
2011: threatening, abusive or insulting behaviour ("Robinson reportedly led the group of Luton fans and played an integral part in starting a 100-man brawl, during which he chanted, "EDL till I die."")
2011: re-arrested while on bail for breaking bail conditions by attending another English Defence League demonstration
2011: assault (of another EDL member)
2011: illegal protest on rooftop of the FIFA building in Zurich
2012: use of a false passport
2012: mortgage fraud
2017: contempt of court (filming and posting about an ongoing trial)
2018: another contempt of court
2018: libelled a Syrian refugee child
2020: arrested for breaking COVID-19 lockdown rules (unclear if this led to a fine, charge or what)
2021: stalking a journalist
2022: fined for failing to appear in court over proceedings related to his declaring bankruptcy in 2021
2024: investigation started into Robinson's alleged role in inciting the Southport riots - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: investigation started into his tax affairs - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: contempt of court (repeating the 2018 libel)
2024: harrassing two more journalists: charged in 2025, trial due later this year

Yes but apart from that?

Sweeney74 · May 5

LostPassword said:

Sweeney74 said:

LostPassword said:

Sweeney74 said:
for the upcoming Holyrood adventure, I've been doing some deep dive analysis of polling/MRP, odds tracking, reporting analysis and so on to produce a region by region breakdown giving (for each constituency): Constituency, Current MSP/successor, Boundary inheritance, 2021 notional, Best placed challenger, YouGov MRP signal, Rating.

I can format each region into tables and paste here if there is an appetite for it, I don't want to spam if not.

On the back of the data I've also stuck my neck out and forecast the following:

SNP largest but short of a majority; Reform narrowly second; Labour dependent entirely on list seats. SNP + Green majority.

SNP - 60
Ref - 21
Lab - 15
Con - 13
Grn - 10
LD - 10
Sounds like a good basis for a thread header article.
As an example, here is the table for Edinburgh and Lothians East
Constituency Current MSP / successor Boundary inheritance 2021 notional Best placed challenger YouGov MRP signal Rating
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs Paul McLennan (SNP) same area SNP Lab SNP +6 vs Lab SNP competitive
Edinburgh Central Angus Robertson (SNP) Edinburgh Central 73%; Edinburgh Southern 27% SNP Green SNP +0 vs Green toss-up
Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent Ash Regan (Ind); main predecessor Edinburgh Eastern Edinburgh Eastern 46%; Midlothian North and Musselburgh 37%; East Lothian 16% SNP Lab SNP +11 vs Lab SNP lean
Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith Ben Macpherson (SNP); main predecessor Edinburgh Northern and Leith Edinburgh Northern and Leith 66%; Edinburgh Eastern 34% SNP Lab SNP +18 vs Lab SNP lean
Edinburgh North Western Alex Cole-Hamilton (LD) Edinburgh Western 84%; Edinburgh Central 13% LD SNP LD +34 vs SNP LD likely
Edinburgh Northern Ben Macpherson (SNP); main predecessor Edinburgh Northern and Leith Edinburgh Northern and Leith 55%; Edinburgh Central 23%; Edinburgh Western 22% SNP LD SNP +12 vs LD SNP lean
Edinburgh South Western Gordon MacDonald (SNP) Edinburgh Pentlands 80%; Edinburgh Southern 20% SNP Lab SNP +21 vs Lab SNP likely
Edinburgh Southern Daniel Johnson (Lab) Edinburgh Southern 49%; Edinburgh Eastern 40%; Edinburgh Pentlands 11% LAB SNP SNP +6 vs Lab SNP competitive
Midlothian North Colin Beattie (SNP) Midlothian North and Musselburgh 92%; Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale 8% SNP Lab SNP +16 vs Lab SNP lean
Okay, could be a lot of detail for a thread header. Maybe sling it up on a file-share somewhere?

Yes there is a lot.
I'll look at the file share options later this evening

Mexicanpete · May 5

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Starmer attacks Arts Council for funding ‘anti-Semitism’

PM launches review to ‘suspend, withdraw and claw back’ grants from organisations that provide a platform for anti-Jewish hate

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/05/keir-starmer-attacks-arts-council-england-anti-semitism/

Like the marches, has he only just noticed?
Are you banning all solidarity with Gaza marches or just selective ones?
I am not advocating banning anything, its Starmer that is wittering on about that. But its all positioning, he knows he cant ban them without effecting lots of others ability to protest and its in his DNA as a human rights lawyer to take the opposite stance e.g. he used to be big supporter of such rights for the likes of XR to protest. At worst they will come up with requiring more paperwork be filed.
I don't advocate anti-Semitism in any way, shape or form. Although, to date I would be critical of Starmer for being ludicrously authoritarian over Palestine Action.
Speaking of which,

Four Palestine Action activists have been found guilty of criminal damage at a UK site of an Israel-based defence firm.

Charlotte Head, 30, Samuel Corner, 23, Leona Kamio, 30, and Fatema Rajwani, 21, broke into an Elbit Systems factory near Bristol in August 2024 before destroying property and clashing with security guards and police.

BBC News - Palestine Action activists guilty of Elbit Systems site raid - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2p99rxr5po

Convict them of criminal damage by all means. Remanding them in custody for belonging to a prescribed ( by Starmer ) group, no thanks.

LostPassword · May 5

LostPassword said:

Sweeney74 said:

LostPassword said:

Sweeney74 said:
for the upcoming Holyrood adventure, I've been doing some deep dive analysis of polling/MRP, odds tracking, reporting analysis and so on to produce a region by region breakdown giving (for each constituency): Constituency, Current MSP/successor, Boundary inheritance, 2021 notional, Best placed challenger, YouGov MRP signal, Rating.

I can format each region into tables and paste here if there is an appetite for it, I don't want to spam if not.

On the back of the data I've also stuck my neck out and forecast the following:

SNP largest but short of a majority; Reform narrowly second; Labour dependent entirely on list seats. SNP + Green majority.

SNP - 60
Ref - 21
Lab - 15
Con - 13
Grn - 10
LD - 10
Sounds like a good basis for a thread header article.
As an example, here is the table for Edinburgh and Lothians East
Constituency Current MSP / successor Boundary inheritance 2021 notional Best placed challenger YouGov MRP signal Rating
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs Paul McLennan (SNP) same area SNP Lab SNP +6 vs Lab SNP competitive
Edinburgh Central Angus Robertson (SNP) Edinburgh Central 73%; Edinburgh Southern 27% SNP Green SNP +0 vs Green toss-up
Edinburgh Eastern, Musselburgh and Tranent Ash Regan (Ind); main predecessor Edinburgh Eastern Edinburgh Eastern 46%; Midlothian North and Musselburgh 37%; East Lothian 16% SNP Lab SNP +11 vs Lab SNP lean
Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith Ben Macpherson (SNP); main predecessor Edinburgh Northern and Leith Edinburgh Northern and Leith 66%; Edinburgh Eastern 34% SNP Lab SNP +18 vs Lab SNP lean
Edinburgh North Western Alex Cole-Hamilton (LD) Edinburgh Western 84%; Edinburgh Central 13% LD SNP LD +34 vs SNP LD likely
Edinburgh Northern Ben Macpherson (SNP); main predecessor Edinburgh Northern and Leith Edinburgh Northern and Leith 55%; Edinburgh Central 23%; Edinburgh Western 22% SNP LD SNP +12 vs LD SNP lean
Edinburgh South Western Gordon MacDonald (SNP) Edinburgh Pentlands 80%; Edinburgh Southern 20% SNP Lab SNP +21 vs Lab SNP likely
Edinburgh Southern Daniel Johnson (Lab) Edinburgh Southern 49%; Edinburgh Eastern 40%; Edinburgh Pentlands 11% LAB SNP SNP +6 vs Lab SNP competitive
Midlothian North Colin Beattie (SNP) Midlothian North and Musselburgh 92%; Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale 8% SNP Lab SNP +16 vs Lab SNP lean
Okay, could be a lot of detail for a thread header. Maybe sling it up on a file-share somewhere?

Incidentally, I knew there was a lot of new housing in North Edinburgh - I was living there when a lot of it was being built - but it's kinda insane that the old Edinburgh Northern and Leith seat provides 66% of the new Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith seat *and* 55% of the new Edinburgh Northern seat.

Wulfrun_Phil · May 5

Net approval amongst those who voted LABOUR at the 2024 General Election (latest Opinium)

Davey +12%
Polanski +11%
Starmer -11%
Badenoch -31%
Farage -44%

So Starmer trailing way behind Davey and Polanski, even amongst those who voted for his party with him as leader only two years ago!

Don't kid me that Thursday's results are going to be anything other than catastrophic for Labour.

FrancisUrquhart · May 5

turbotubbs said:

bondegezou said:
FPT...

theProle said:

nico67 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Kemi, defending Tommy Robinson is not a good look, there’s a reason why even Farage avoids him like the plague.

"There is something very specific happening to Jewish communities”

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says she supports a moratorium on pro-Palestinian marches but not for the march led by far-right activist Tommy Robinson later this month

https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/2050890953246834762?s=46
If you’re going to ban one then you ban the other aswell .
What's Robinson done that's actually illegal, other than the contempt of court stuff? I grant you he's good at dog-whistling to thugs, but I think he's fairly careful not to do anything that would get him nicked for incitement.

The issue with the pro-Palestinian marches is that there's been a lot of stuff which crosses that line, and the plod don't seem very interested in doing anything about it.
What's Robinson done that's illegal? This is stuff he's been found guilty of in court, unless otherwise specified.

2003: assaulted a police officer
2011: threatening, abusive or insulting behaviour ("Robinson reportedly led the group of Luton fans and played an integral part in starting a 100-man brawl, during which he chanted, "EDL till I die."")
2011: re-arrested while on bail for breaking bail conditions by attending another English Defence League demonstration
2011: assault (of another EDL member)
2011: illegal protest on rooftop of the FIFA building in Zurich
2012: use of a false passport
2012: mortgage fraud
2017: contempt of court (filming and posting about an ongoing trial)
2018: another contempt of court
2018: libelled a Syrian refugee child
2020: arrested for breaking COVID-19 lockdown rules (unclear if this led to a fine, charge or what)
2021: stalking a journalist
2022: fined for failing to appear in court over proceedings related to his declaring bankruptcy in 2021
2024: investigation started into Robinson's alleged role in inciting the Southport riots - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: investigation started into his tax affairs - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: contempt of court (repeating the 2018 libel)
2024: harrassing two more journalists: charged in 2025, trial due later this year
Yes but apart from that?

I am always fascinated how he seemingly has had access to large amounts of money such that he had millions in property and not needed to work for 20+ years and this predates his successful social media "infleuncer" days where he span that into a very decent income.

nico67 · May 5

Cyclefree said:
There's worse

OMG that’s horrific . I’m speechless what a vile odious woman.

Cyclefree · May 5

dixiedean said:

Cyclefree said:
I think only people who know about Millom and have spent time here should be PM.

Oh @algarkirk the hub of the place is not the train station - though its museum and cafe are nice. There is a very good cafe in town with excellent coffee and cakes and a new tea and cake shop has opened and a gym. Plus two excellent seaside cafes on Silecroft and Haverigg beaches.

Anyway that puts me and my husband, planning barrister with intelligent thoughts about planning, local government and house building and also Chair of the Norman Nicholson Society, in pole position. Closely followed by @algarkirk.

We could probably create an intelligent and competent Cabinet from PB'ers, with Away Days in my garden.
I have.
Fourth interesting fact.
The oldest amateur Rugby League club in the world is Millom.

It also has a brilliant independent butcher.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 5

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Net approval amongst those who voted LABOUR at the 2024 General Election (latest Opinium)

Davey +12%
Polanski +11%
Starmer -11%
Badenoch -31%
Farage -44%

So Starmer trailing way behind Davey and Polanski, even amongst those who voted for his party with him as leader only two years ago!

Don't kid me that Thursday's results are going to be anything other than catastrophic for Labour.

But when Starmer goes, their ratings will pick up quickly but perhaps only temporarily.

All the hatred is with Starmer.

bondegezou · May 5

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

bondegezou said:
FPT...

theProle said:

nico67 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Kemi, defending Tommy Robinson is not a good look, there’s a reason why even Farage avoids him like the plague.

"There is something very specific happening to Jewish communities”

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says she supports a moratorium on pro-Palestinian marches but not for the march led by far-right activist Tommy Robinson later this month

https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/2050890953246834762?s=46
If you’re going to ban one then you ban the other aswell .
What's Robinson done that's actually illegal, other than the contempt of court stuff? I grant you he's good at dog-whistling to thugs, but I think he's fairly careful not to do anything that would get him nicked for incitement.

The issue with the pro-Palestinian marches is that there's been a lot of stuff which crosses that line, and the plod don't seem very interested in doing anything about it.
What's Robinson done that's illegal? This is stuff he's been found guilty of in court, unless otherwise specified.

2003: assaulted a police officer
2011: threatening, abusive or insulting behaviour ("Robinson reportedly led the group of Luton fans and played an integral part in starting a 100-man brawl, during which he chanted, "EDL till I die."")
2011: re-arrested while on bail for breaking bail conditions by attending another English Defence League demonstration
2011: assault (of another EDL member)
2011: illegal protest on rooftop of the FIFA building in Zurich
2012: use of a false passport
2012: mortgage fraud
2017: contempt of court (filming and posting about an ongoing trial)
2018: another contempt of court
2018: libelled a Syrian refugee child
2020: arrested for breaking COVID-19 lockdown rules (unclear if this led to a fine, charge or what)
2021: stalking a journalist
2022: fined for failing to appear in court over proceedings related to his declaring bankruptcy in 2021
2024: investigation started into Robinson's alleged role in inciting the Southport riots - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: investigation started into his tax affairs - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: contempt of court (repeating the 2018 libel)
2024: harrassing two more journalists: charged in 2025, trial due later this year
Yes but apart from that?
I am always fascinated how he seemingly has had access to large amounts of money such that he had millions in property and not needed to work for 20+ years and this predates his successful social media "infleuncer" days where he span that into a very decent income.

He has UK fans. He has MAGA fans in the US. He's been accused of taking Russian money. He's taken Bibi's money.

Mexicanpete · May 5

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Net approval amongst those who voted LABOUR at the 2024 General Election (latest Opinium)

Davey +12%
Polanski +11%
Starmer -11%
Badenoch -31%
Farage -44%

So Starmer trailing way behind Davey and Polanski, even amongst those who voted for his party with him as leader only two years ago!

Don't kid me that Thursday's results are going to be anything other than catastrophic for Labour.

-2000 and counting councillors.

FrancisUrquhart · May 5

Car manufacturer Nissan has announced it will be closing one of its UK production lines and will be cutting 900 jobs in Europe.

BBC News - Nissan to shut Sunderland line and cut 900 European jobs - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdep9g8dp36o

Big_G_NorthWales · May 5

Cyclefree said:
There's worse

Sick mind

algarkirk · May 5

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mexicanpete said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Starmer attacks Arts Council for funding ‘anti-Semitism’

PM launches review to ‘suspend, withdraw and claw back’ grants from organisations that provide a platform for anti-Jewish hate

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/05/keir-starmer-attacks-arts-council-england-anti-semitism/

Like the marches, has he only just noticed?
Are you banning all solidarity with Gaza marches or just selective ones?
I am not advocating banning anything, its Starmer that is wittering on about that. But its all positioning, he knows he cant ban them without effecting lots of others ability to protest and its in his DNA as a human rights lawyer to take the opposite stance e.g. he used to be big supporter of such rights for the likes of XR to protest. At worst they will come up with requiring more paperwork be filed.
I don't advocate anti-Semitism in any way, shape or form. Although, to date I would be critical of Starmer for being ludicrously authoritarian over Palestine Action.

Where does the formula 'way, shape or form' originate, and why does it sound wrong if you alter the order ('form, way or shape' etc)?

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 5

Labour will poll between 25 and 30 under Burnham at least to start with.

Mexicanpete · May 5

FrancisUrquhart said:
Car manufacturer Nissan has announced it will be closing one of its UK production lines and will be cutting 900 jobs in Europe.

Nissan are on the brink in Japan too.

In terms of European sales, after Stellantis they will be an early casualty of the Chinese invasion.

dixiedean · May 5

Mexicanpete said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Net approval amongst those who voted LABOUR at the 2024 General Election (latest Opinium)

Davey +12%
Polanski +11%
Starmer -11%
Badenoch -31%
Farage -44%

So Starmer trailing way behind Davey and Polanski, even amongst those who voted for his party with him as leader only two years ago!

Don't kid me that Thursday's results are going to be anything other than catastrophic for Labour.
-2000 and counting councillors.

Out of 2303?
That would be some effort!

Mexicanpete · May 5

dixiedean said:

Mexicanpete said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Net approval amongst those who voted LABOUR at the 2024 General Election (latest Opinium)

Davey +12%
Polanski +11%
Starmer -11%
Badenoch -31%
Farage -44%

So Starmer trailing way behind Davey and Polanski, even amongst those who voted for his party with him as leader only two years ago!

Don't kid me that Thursday's results are going to be anything other than catastrophic for Labour.
-2000 and counting councillors.
Out of 2303?
That would be some effort!

Yes.

FrancisUrquhart · May 5

bondegezou said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

bondegezou said:
FPT...

theProle said:

nico67 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Kemi, defending Tommy Robinson is not a good look, there’s a reason why even Farage avoids him like the plague.

"There is something very specific happening to Jewish communities”

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says she supports a moratorium on pro-Palestinian marches but not for the march led by far-right activist Tommy Robinson later this month

https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/2050890953246834762?s=46
If you’re going to ban one then you ban the other aswell .
What's Robinson done that's actually illegal, other than the contempt of court stuff? I grant you he's good at dog-whistling to thugs, but I think he's fairly careful not to do anything that would get him nicked for incitement.

The issue with the pro-Palestinian marches is that there's been a lot of stuff which crosses that line, and the plod don't seem very interested in doing anything about it.
What's Robinson done that's illegal? This is stuff he's been found guilty of in court, unless otherwise specified.

2003: assaulted a police officer
2011: threatening, abusive or insulting behaviour ("Robinson reportedly led the group of Luton fans and played an integral part in starting a 100-man brawl, during which he chanted, "EDL till I die."")
2011: re-arrested while on bail for breaking bail conditions by attending another English Defence League demonstration
2011: assault (of another EDL member)
2011: illegal protest on rooftop of the FIFA building in Zurich
2012: use of a false passport
2012: mortgage fraud
2017: contempt of court (filming and posting about an ongoing trial)
2018: another contempt of court
2018: libelled a Syrian refugee child
2020: arrested for breaking COVID-19 lockdown rules (unclear if this led to a fine, charge or what)
2021: stalking a journalist
2022: fined for failing to appear in court over proceedings related to his declaring bankruptcy in 2021
2024: investigation started into Robinson's alleged role in inciting the Southport riots - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: investigation started into his tax affairs - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: contempt of court (repeating the 2018 libel)
2024: harrassing two more journalists: charged in 2025, trial due later this year
Yes but apart from that?
I am always fascinated how he seemingly has had access to large amounts of money such that he had millions in property and not needed to work for 20+ years and this predates his successful social media "infleuncer" days where he span that into a very decent income.
He has UK fans. He has MAGA fans in the US. He's been accused of taking Russian money. He's taken Bibi's money.

I was talking about before MAGA or Rebel TV guy. Before that he was going gang busters on social media and milked donations. But even prior to that he seemed to have access to significant amounts of money.

Sandpit · May 5

Oh crap, air raid sirens again…

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 5

Thursday is going to be a disaster and then Starmer must quit.

They have ample opportunity here to reset.

Battlebus · May 5

FrancisUrquhart said:
Car manufacturer Nissan has announced it will be closing one of its UK production lines and will be cutting 900 jobs in Europe.

BBC News - Nissan to shut Sunderland line and cut 900 European jobs - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdep9g8dp36o

Car plant life cycles reflect model life cycles. If plants don't have access to new models, then they eventually fade. Sunderland would be considered a mature plant.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 5

https://x.com/timesradio/status/2051670809781887482

“I’m extremely left wing but I think he’s completely insane.”

These wavering Labour voters are considering switching to the Greens but have mixed feelings about Zack Polanski.

Labour’s strategy on the Greens is the right one.

algarkirk · May 5

WRT the header, Is Burnham really in the lead for next Labour leader/next PM?

William Hills quote thus: Next Labour Leader: Rayner 15/8, Burnham 11/4. Next PM: Rayner 9/4, Burnham 7/2.

If there is value I suggest Cooper, 14/1 for next Labour leader. You never know, there might be an outbreak of sanity.

kinabalu · May 5

FrancisUrquhart said:

bondegezou said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

bondegezou said:
FPT...

theProle said:

nico67 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Kemi, defending Tommy Robinson is not a good look, there’s a reason why even Farage avoids him like the plague.

"There is something very specific happening to Jewish communities”

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says she supports a moratorium on pro-Palestinian marches but not for the march led by far-right activist Tommy Robinson later this month

https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/2050890953246834762?s=46
If you’re going to ban one then you ban the other aswell .
What's Robinson done that's actually illegal, other than the contempt of court stuff? I grant you he's good at dog-whistling to thugs, but I think he's fairly careful not to do anything that would get him nicked for incitement.

The issue with the pro-Palestinian marches is that there's been a lot of stuff which crosses that line, and the plod don't seem very interested in doing anything about it.
What's Robinson done that's illegal? This is stuff he's been found guilty of in court, unless otherwise specified.

2003: assaulted a police officer
2011: threatening, abusive or insulting behaviour ("Robinson reportedly led the group of Luton fans and played an integral part in starting a 100-man brawl, during which he chanted, "EDL till I die."")
2011: re-arrested while on bail for breaking bail conditions by attending another English Defence League demonstration
2011: assault (of another EDL member)
2011: illegal protest on rooftop of the FIFA building in Zurich
2012: use of a false passport
2012: mortgage fraud
2017: contempt of court (filming and posting about an ongoing trial)
2018: another contempt of court
2018: libelled a Syrian refugee child
2020: arrested for breaking COVID-19 lockdown rules (unclear if this led to a fine, charge or what)
2021: stalking a journalist
2022: fined for failing to appear in court over proceedings related to his declaring bankruptcy in 2021
2024: investigation started into Robinson's alleged role in inciting the Southport riots - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: investigation started into his tax affairs - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: contempt of court (repeating the 2018 libel)
2024: harrassing two more journalists: charged in 2025, trial due later this year
Yes but apart from that?
I am always fascinated how he seemingly has had access to large amounts of money such that he had millions in property and not needed to work for 20+ years and this predates his successful social media "infleuncer" days where he span that into a very decent income.
He has UK fans. He has MAGA fans in the US. He's been accused of taking Russian money. He's taken Bibi's money.
I was talking about before MAGA or Rebel TV guy. Before that he was going gang busters on social media and milked donations. But even prior to that he seemed to have access to significant amounts of money.

Far Right + Dark Money = Bacon + Eggs

MikeL · May 5

It obviously depends upon the variation between wards but the More In Common London poll suggests Labour may well retain the majority of its London councillors. It certainly doesn't look as if it will be losing 75% of them.

Mexicanpete · May 5

Zack has claimed that Labour are in the pockets of Zionists. He's really, really good at student politics.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/04/zack-polanski-liked-post-zionists-control-government/

TheScreamingEagles · May 5

isam said:
Kemi leading the way with Opinium

For Kemi Badenoch, the picture is much stronger:

🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes
🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2)
🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals

https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/2051653717686972420?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?

Dopermean · May 5

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:
Kemi leading the way with Opinium

For Kemi Badenoch, the picture is much stronger:

🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes
🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2)
🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals

https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/2051653717686972420?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?

"Kemi winning here"

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 5

Is there value in betting on Labour leading a poll based on a new leader bounce?

MikeL · May 5

algarkirk said:
WRT the header, Is Burnham really in the lead for next Labour leader/next PM?

William Hills quote thus: Next Labour Leader: Rayner 15/8, Burnham 11/4. Next PM: Rayner 9/4, Burnham 7/2.

If there is value I suggest Cooper, 14/1 for next Labour leader. You never know, there might be an outbreak of sanity.

Cooper is 25-1 on Betfair (next PM).

Burnham 4.2
Rayner 4.7
Streeting 8.2
Farage 13.5
Miliband 17
Cooper 26
Mahmood 27
Bar 34

numbertwelve · May 5

If you’re Streeting then I see very little to lose by mounting a challenge after the locals, if he genuinely does have the 81 MP support (that’s a big if, IMHO. Even if he thinks he has the numbers now, that can change if there’s a big rally round the leader effort).

Waiting doesn’t suit him. Waiting allows Burnham to get back into Parliament and Rayner to get the HMRC stuff resolved. If we are going to see a challenge from Streeting, surely we will see it in the coming days.

At risk of being a broken record, if Starmer chooses not to fight any contest, look for who the party might see as a unifying safe pair of hands to enter the contest at that point.

Sandpit · May 5

FrancisUrquhart said:
Car manufacturer Nissan has announced it will be closing one of its UK production lines and will be cutting 900 jobs in Europe.

BBC News - Nissan to shut Sunderland line and cut 900 European jobs - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdep9g8dp36o

UK and EU regulators have totally screwed the car manufacturing business. It’s all going to be either Tesla or China very quickly.

Taz · May 5

Battlebus said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Car manufacturer Nissan has announced it will be closing one of its UK production lines and will be cutting 900 jobs in Europe.

BBC News - Nissan to shut Sunderland line and cut 900 European jobs - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdep9g8dp36o
Car plant life cycles reflect model life cycles. If plants don't have access to new models, then they eventually fade. Sunderland would be considered a mature plant.

There were some rumours they were looking at letting a Chinese manufacturer use part of the plant as a screwdriver facility. Not quite sure the logistics of shipping full CKD kits mind you.

rcs1000 · May 5

Sweeney74 said:
for the upcoming Holyrood adventure, I've been doing some deep dive analysis of polling/MRP, odds tracking, reporting analysis and so on to produce a region by region breakdown giving (for each constituency): Constituency, Current MSP/successor, Boundary inheritance, 2021 notional, Best placed challenger, YouGov MRP signal, Rating.

I can format each region into tables and paste here if there is an appetite for it, I don't want to spam if not.

On the back of the data I've also stuck my neck out and forecast the following:

SNP largest but short of a majority; Reform narrowly second; Labour dependent entirely on list seats. SNP + Green majority.

SNP - 60
Ref - 21
Lab - 15
Con - 13
Grn - 10
LD - 10

That looks very plausible - albeit I'd expect the Greens to end up ahead of the LDs. (I expect the LDs to fall short on the list vote, again.)

williamglenn · May 5

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:
Kemi leading the way with Opinium

For Kemi Badenoch, the picture is much stronger:

🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes
🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2)
🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals

https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/2051653717686972420?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?

It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.

kinabalu · May 5

algarkirk said:
WRT the header, Is Burnham really in the lead for next Labour leader/next PM?

William Hills quote thus: Next Labour Leader: Rayner 15/8, Burnham 11/4. Next PM: Rayner 9/4, Burnham 7/2.

If there is value I suggest Cooper, 14/1 for next Labour leader. You never know, there might be an outbreak of sanity.

Hills differ from betfair who have Burnham fav in both markets.

Battlebus · May 5

Just been canvassed by my local councillor (LibDem). Despite decades of being a local representative, they are seriously worried about Reform. They have been promised some anti-Reform votes from the other parties but it's going to come down to the secret Reform voters. And if they are concerned about Reform, the majority of Tories in the area must be far more worried. No sign of the Kemi effect here.

rcs1000 · May 5

Stuartinromford said:
But the Telegraph have told us that he's got it in the bag, and newspapers don't make stuff up, do they?

Though 23% probability isn't that probable.

As any Balatro player will tell you. (Nope!)

Big_G_NorthWales · May 5

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:
Kemi leading the way with Opinium

For Kemi Badenoch, the picture is much stronger:

🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes
🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2)
🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals

https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/2051653717686972420?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?

The conservatives will not perform well, but Kemi's increasing popularity is the best hope of a recovery for the conservatives in 2029 and certainly to beat Farage

algarkirk · May 5

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
https://x.com/robertshrimsley/status/2051671138074267687

Two faces of the Green Party. The new Green party membership has a message for its old leader Caroline Lucas.

The British public do not vote for extremists.

Lucas is right of course, though she describes anti-semitism as 'a society wide problem'. No it isn't. There are huge swathes of society in which you do not meet with anti-semitism. Apart from in the media (obviously) I don't recall meeting with it on a single occasion since leaving London over 40 years ago, though I have met with lots of other 'anti' feelings and thoughts. At the same time the respect and regard that Israel was held in by a lot of people has cooled.

rcs1000 · May 5

Cyclefree said:
There's worse

I would hope the reason is that -until the tweet- Polanski had neither heard of her, nor her views.

It's what he does now that is the question.

eek · May 5

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Car manufacturer Nissan has announced it will be closing one of its UK production lines and will be cutting 900 jobs in Europe.

BBC News - Nissan to shut Sunderland line and cut 900 European jobs - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdep9g8dp36o
UK and EU regulators have totally screwed the car manufacturing business. It’s all going to be either Tesla or China very quickly.

It won’t be Tesla, Tesla don’t want to make cars anymore - he wants to make robots (either taxis or just robots).

scampi25 · May 5

Mexicanpete said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:
Net approval amongst those who voted LABOUR at the 2024 General Election (latest Opinium)

Davey +12%
Polanski +11%
Starmer -11%
Badenoch -31%
Farage -44%

So Starmer trailing way behind Davey and Polanski, even amongst those who voted for his party with him as leader only two years ago!

Don't kid me that Thursday's results are going to be anything other than catastrophic for Labour.
-2000 and counting councillors.

I think you're trying to manage expectations with the -2000 figure.

Mexicanpete · May 5

Taz said:

Battlebus said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Car manufacturer Nissan has announced it will be closing one of its UK production lines and will be cutting 900 jobs in Europe.

BBC News - Nissan to shut Sunderland line and cut 900 European jobs - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdep9g8dp36o
Car plant life cycles reflect model life cycles. If plants don't have access to new models, then they eventually fade. Sunderland would be considered a mature plant.
There were some rumours they were looking at letting a Chinese manufacturer use part of the plant as a screwdriver facility. Not quite sure the logistics of shipping full CKD kits mind you.

Isn't that what SAIC were supposed to be doing at Longbridge? Longbridge is now several years redundant and MG's UK headquarters is now in London.

Are SAIC using Holyhead Road for LTi CKD kits or are they also coming straight from China?

Dopermean · May 5

kinabalu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

bondegezou said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

bondegezou said:
FPT...

theProle said:

nico67 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh Kemi, defending Tommy Robinson is not a good look, there’s a reason why even Farage avoids him like the plague.

"There is something very specific happening to Jewish communities”

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch says she supports a moratorium on pro-Palestinian marches but not for the march led by far-right activist Tommy Robinson later this month

https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/2050890953246834762?s=46
If you’re going to ban one then you ban the other aswell .
What's Robinson done that's actually illegal, other than the contempt of court stuff? I grant you he's good at dog-whistling to thugs, but I think he's fairly careful not to do anything that would get him nicked for incitement.

The issue with the pro-Palestinian marches is that there's been a lot of stuff which crosses that line, and the plod don't seem very interested in doing anything about it.
What's Robinson done that's illegal? This is stuff he's been found guilty of in court, unless otherwise specified.

2003: assaulted a police officer
2011: threatening, abusive or insulting behaviour ("Robinson reportedly led the group of Luton fans and played an integral part in starting a 100-man brawl, during which he chanted, "EDL till I die."")
2011: re-arrested while on bail for breaking bail conditions by attending another English Defence League demonstration
2011: assault (of another EDL member)
2011: illegal protest on rooftop of the FIFA building in Zurich
2012: use of a false passport
2012: mortgage fraud
2017: contempt of court (filming and posting about an ongoing trial)
2018: another contempt of court
2018: libelled a Syrian refugee child
2020: arrested for breaking COVID-19 lockdown rules (unclear if this led to a fine, charge or what)
2021: stalking a journalist
2022: fined for failing to appear in court over proceedings related to his declaring bankruptcy in 2021
2024: investigation started into Robinson's alleged role in inciting the Southport riots - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: investigation started into his tax affairs - still ongoing AFAIK
2024: contempt of court (repeating the 2018 libel)
2024: harrassing two more journalists: charged in 2025, trial due later this year
Yes but apart from that?
I am always fascinated how he seemingly has had access to large amounts of money such that he had millions in property and not needed to work for 20+ years and this predates his successful social media "infleuncer" days where he span that into a very decent income.
He has UK fans. He has MAGA fans in the US. He's been accused of taking Russian money. He's taken Bibi's money.
I was talking about before MAGA or Rebel TV guy. Before that he was going gang busters on social media and milked donations. But even prior to that he seemed to have access to significant amounts of money.
Far Right + Dark Money = Bacon + Eggs

No money to pay the legal costs or libel award of the teenager he's repeatedly libeled though.
Apparently his ex-wife took it all in the divorce settlement

His income is from "1000s of small donations from supporters" via social media platforms?
LOL is it f***.

Taz · May 5

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:
There's worse

I would hope the reason is that -until the tweet- Polanski had neither heard of her, nor her views.

It's what he does now that is the question.

She’s been discussed in the local press and social media for well over a week now. She is known to them.

But she’s the victim here.

https://x.com/steve_cooke/status/2049888178664788381?s=61

I suspect she’s a chance of winning too.

The greens have had adequate chances to disown her but haven’t.

Taz · May 5

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:
There's worse

I would hope the reason is that -until the tweet- Polanski had neither heard of her, nor her views.

It's what he does now that is the question.

She’s been discussed in the local press and social media for well over a week now. She is known to them.

But she’s the victim here.

https://x.com/steve_cooke/status/2049888178664788381?s=61

I suspect she’s a chance of winning too.

The greens have had adequate chances to disown her but haven’t.

isam · May 5

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:
Kemi leading the way with Opinium

For Kemi Badenoch, the picture is much stronger:

🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes
🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2)
🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals

https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/2051653717686972420?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?

It took me longer to read that than the amount of time I’ve thought about the locals

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 5

numbertwelve said:
If you’re Streeting then I see very little to lose by mounting a challenge after the locals, if he genuinely does have the 81 MP support (that’s a big if, IMHO. Even if he thinks he has the numbers now, that can change if there’s a big rally round the leader effort).

Waiting doesn’t suit him. Waiting allows Burnham to get back into Parliament and Rayner to get the HMRC stuff resolved. If we are going to see a challenge from Streeting, surely we will see it in the coming days.

At risk of being a broken record, if Starmer chooses not to fight any contest, look for who the party might see as a unifying safe pair of hands to enter the contest at that point.

Streeting has a very good chance IMO.

I still think a coronation that doesn’t go to the membership is likely.

TheScreamingEagles · May 5

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:
Kemi leading the way with Opinium

For Kemi Badenoch, the picture is much stronger:

🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes
🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2)
🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals

https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/2051653717686972420?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.

Err when these elections were fought in 2022 the Tories made a net loss of nearly 500 seats.

She should be making net gains,.

turbotubbs · May 5

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

numbertwelve said:
If you’re Streeting then I see very little to lose by mounting a challenge after the locals, if he genuinely does have the 81 MP support (that’s a big if, IMHO. Even if he thinks he has the numbers now, that can change if there’s a big rally round the leader effort).

Waiting doesn’t suit him. Waiting allows Burnham to get back into Parliament and Rayner to get the HMRC stuff resolved. If we are going to see a challenge from Streeting, surely we will see it in the coming days.

At risk of being a broken record, if Starmer chooses not to fight any contest, look for who the party might see as a unifying safe pair of hands to enter the contest at that point.
Streeting has a very good chance IMO.

I still think a coronation that doesn’t go to the membership is likely.

I know that you have good links into the party, but I am not so sure that Starmer is going to acquiesce that easily. He won a historic landslide less than two years ago. Why should he not be allowed the time to get Labour back on the front foot?

numbertwelve · May 5

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:
Kemi leading the way with Opinium

For Kemi Badenoch, the picture is much stronger:

🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes
🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2)
🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals

https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/2051653717686972420?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.
Err when these elections were fought in 2022 the Tories made a net loss of nearly 500 seats.

She should be making net gains,.

She won’t, because the underlying circumstances don’t work in her favour. Reform are still riding (relatively) high, and unless/until their popularity declines the Tories will struggle. This isn’t really on Badenoch - her personal ratings aren’t too bad - it’s the legacy of the last government.

They should continue to play the long game with Kemi, rather than descending into another bout of infighting.

rcs1000 · May 5

MikeL said:

algarkirk said:
WRT the header, Is Burnham really in the lead for next Labour leader/next PM?

William Hills quote thus: Next Labour Leader: Rayner 15/8, Burnham 11/4. Next PM: Rayner 9/4, Burnham 7/2.

If there is value I suggest Cooper, 14/1 for next Labour leader. You never know, there might be an outbreak of sanity.
Cooper is 25-1 on Betfair (next PM).

Burnham 4.2
Rayner 4.7
Streeting 8.2
Farage 13.5
Miliband 17
Cooper 26
Mahmood 27
Bar 34

The thing is... Cooper's not very good.

She's like a female Starmer. She lacks the ability to foresee if something is a good or a bad idea, or if it is likely to be electoral poison.

She might not *quite* be as tone deaf as him (albeit he's right up there with Yoko Ono), so she might be a slight improvement. But what has she achieved in almost 30 years in partlament?

Sandpit · May 5

eek said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Car manufacturer Nissan has announced it will be closing one of its UK production lines and will be cutting 900 jobs in Europe.

BBC News - Nissan to shut Sunderland line and cut 900 European jobs - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdep9g8dp36o
UK and EU regulators have totally screwed the car manufacturing business. It’s all going to be either Tesla or China very quickly.
It won’t be Tesla, Tesla don’t want to make cars anymore - he wants to make robots (either taxis or just robots).

They’re doing private sales of the taxis, at $30k for a car that will pick you up from the pub.

It’ll be revolutionary.

Cookie · May 5

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:
Kemi leading the way with Opinium

For Kemi Badenoch, the picture is much stronger:

🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes
🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2)
🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals

https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/2051653717686972420?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.
Err when these elections were fought in 2022 the Tories made a net loss of nearly 500 seats.

She should be making net gains,.

This POV gets trotted out from time to time and I think it's madness. There were only three main parties in 2022. In those circumstances you're not going to be making net gains. It's totally unrealistic. The world is totally different. It's like comparing stats with 1970 or 1951.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 5

turbotubbs said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

numbertwelve said:
If you’re Streeting then I see very little to lose by mounting a challenge after the locals, if he genuinely does have the 81 MP support (that’s a big if, IMHO. Even if he thinks he has the numbers now, that can change if there’s a big rally round the leader effort).

Waiting doesn’t suit him. Waiting allows Burnham to get back into Parliament and Rayner to get the HMRC stuff resolved. If we are going to see a challenge from Streeting, surely we will see it in the coming days.

At risk of being a broken record, if Starmer chooses not to fight any contest, look for who the party might see as a unifying safe pair of hands to enter the contest at that point.
Streeting has a very good chance IMO.

I still think a coronation that doesn’t go to the membership is likely.
I know that you have good links into the party, but I am not so sure that Starmer is going to acquiesce that easily. He won a historic landslide less than two years ago. Why should he not be allowed the time to get Labour back on the front foot?

There’s not a chance he will PM for much longer. He will quit.

rcs1000 · May 5

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Car manufacturer Nissan has announced it will be closing one of its UK production lines and will be cutting 900 jobs in Europe.

BBC News - Nissan to shut Sunderland line and cut 900 European jobs - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdep9g8dp36o
UK and EU regulators have totally screwed the car manufacturing business. It’s all going to be either Tesla or China very quickly.

Tesla is not doing great either.

Stuartinromford · May 5

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:
Kemi leading the way with Opinium

For Kemi Badenoch, the picture is much stronger:

🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes
🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2)
🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals

https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/2051653717686972420?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.
Err when these elections were fought in 2022 the Tories made a net loss of nearly 500 seats.

She should be making net gains,.

Another way of looking at it is that Boris's losses in 2022 triggered the confidence vote that saved his Premiership for a couple more months.

Given that Reform wasn't really a thing then and boy it is now, Kemi would have to be doing very very well to be doing better than Boris '22. But she's still likely to be a loser on the night.

There might be some breaks in the cloud, but the big picture is that her party remains neck-and-neck with the Most Awful Prime Minister Ever (except for the ones we don't talk about).

Big_G_NorthWales · May 5

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:
Kemi leading the way with Opinium

For Kemi Badenoch, the picture is much stronger:

🔵Leads on 13 of 15 attributes
🔵Positive scores on principled (+2), decisive (+2) and competent (+2)
🔵 Weakest on looking like a PM (-17), though still ahead of rivals

https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/2051653717686972420?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
So how many net gains do you expect Kemi's Tories to make on Thursday in the locals based on this polling?
It's not a fair comparison because you're measuring her against the greatest Tory election winner this century in Boris Johnson.
Err when these elections were fought in 2022 the Tories made a net loss of nearly 500 seats.

She should be making net gains,.

The brand is the issue, not the leader and she has gained support across the party and increasingly with the public

There are 3 years for her to recover the brand, and in that time Farage and Polanski have a mountain to climb to maintain their own support

Thursday will be judgement day on Starmer not Kemi Badenoch

The man who isn’t even an MP becomes the favourite to be the next Prime Minister

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