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Holyrood election – seats to watch part 2 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,174
edited May 5 in General
Holyrood election – seats to watch part 2 – politicalbetting.com

Following on from Friday’s article reviewing some key contests in Holyrood constituencies, here is another batch of seats to keep an eye out for following Thursday’s election. This time, I will focus on seats to look out for in the Edinburgh and Lothians East, North East Scotland and Highlands & Islands regions.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TazTaz Posts: 28,160
    edited May 5
    Boom

    First like Arsenal
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 5,446
    Thanks, DoctorG.

    Good morning, everyone.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,137
    edited May 5
    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,581
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,676
    bondegezou said:

    Taz said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rottenborough said:

    isam said:

    eek said:

    isam said:

    Malmesbury said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Apart from being thoroughly nasty, isn't the Yusuf/Farage plan for detention centre in 'Green' constituencies somewhat flawed? Given that any seats won by the Greens are likely to be on c. 30-35% of the vote, those who voted Reform in that constituency would be 'punished' as well. See Gorton and Denton for example.

    On reflection, I've no idea why I'm even giving such an unpleasant, unworkable and bizarre policy proposal the time of day.

    I don’t remember this effeminate outrage over the last 25 years, as successive governments, of all stripes, have dumped “difficult” migrants in poor, white, working class areas

    Weird
    I’ve said many times on here that immigrants should be houses in cheap new builds on the most expensive streets in the country, rather than dumped on struggling coastal towns. This policy from Reform isn’t much different I suppose. People are shrieking about it, but it is Green policy to accept refugees without fuss, and plenty of lefties wore ‘Refugees Welcome’ t-shirts so why should they be upset by it?
    How do you build cheap new builds on the most expensive streets in the country? To start with, the most expensive streets in the country tend to have a fair percentage of the street occupied already.
    I don't have a fully costed manifesto, but you get the gist. House the migrants in posh areas and let the people who aren't struggling for jobs, doctors appointments, school places etc suffer the consequences, rather than those who are already in bother having an added burden
    Please cost it - remembering that most builders can no longer afford to build in London because £500,000 a flat doesn't cover costs..
    Big caravan sites in Richmond Park, the Cotswolds, Hyde Park, Regents Park, the posh squares in London, Hampstead Heath, Sidmouth, Bristol, etc
    I dont see how "We are going to need massive detention camps in nice green suburban parts of England because we can't control the border" is a vote winner for Reform.

    It would toughen the other parties up on the issue. The areas I mentioned becoming detention centres wouldn’t bother Reform supporters too much

    The point is, mass immigration has fucked over the poor and the JAMs, while the rich profited financially and were immune to the social consequences. It’s time to redress the balance
    There's this bit in the West Wing where Jed Bartlett says something like "I'm the President of all Americans, not just the ones who voted for me".

    And for a long time, politics was like that.

    But we saw that break down in the US in recent years: during the government shutdown, the Trump administration deliberately withheld funds from Blue States, even as it sent them to Red States.

    No government should ever seek to govern only for those who voted it for it. There should never be 'punishment' for voting the wrong way.

    Now, if Farage had framed it as "we think the costs should be shared around, and it's wrong that the most deprived areas bear the brunt of these costs", that would have been fine. But "vote Green, get detention centres" is the kind of thing that riles me beyond belief.
    Yes, I can see how Reform’s policy could rile someone; they said it in quite a vindictive way. But there’s no need for them to be so explicit about why they’re detaining asylum seekers in certain areas, just do it.

    As I said, I’ve always hated the double impact of mass immigration on the poor, while the rich profit financially and escape the downsides. It turns the working class against the migrants and allows them to be cast as stupid racists, when in the main, they’re just looking to maintain their standard of living. Divide and rule
    The thing is, once something has been said, it cannot be unsaid. Nigel Farage -and Reform- chose to make this statement.
    I hold no candle for Farage or Reform, and think it crass, but I can't say I'm that animated by it - other than it nakedly bakes in partisanship - because they just said the quiet part out loud.

    Governments have been playing this game - favouring their areas and disfavouring areas that aren't, particularly in marginal seats - for decades.
    Exactly. This sort of thing is not new.

    Asylum seekers have happily been dumped in large numbers, relative to other areas, in places like Middlesbrough, Gateshead and Rochdale and, as Isam said, if people dare to complain they are called racist.

    Then you get the Green deputy leader outraged when they plan to dump several hundred in Crowborough in her own backyard.

    You have to laugh.
    As ever, this discussion is bouncing between asylum seekers and immigration more generally, when those are very different categories. The areas with most asylum seekers are the North West and London. Fig. 9 of https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/where-do-migrants-live-in-the-uk/ has London top, then the North West, then the West Midlands. Fig. 5 of https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-december-2025/how-many-people-are-in-the-uk-asylum-system goes down to local authority area. That link has the North West above London.

    In terms of all immigration, this is very much concentrated in London and the wider South East, which are also the richest parts of the country.

    These numbers don’t really support some of the claims above.
    Quite.
    As I argued earlier, things like investment levels far better explain wealth disparities.

    There's certainly a good case to be made against completely uncontrolled immigration - as experienced under Johnson's lackadaisical premiership, but otherwise it's a lot like the EU/Brexit debate - another grievance to be exploited for Farage's self aggrandisement.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492
    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,261
    FPT from @malcolmg

    carnforth said:

    » show previous quotes
    I hear Scotland is empty.

    Filling up with immigrants being shipped from England actually, they got there before you


    The ONS projects a 0.3% growth in population (2024-2034) driven by cross-border immigration (110,000) which is 10 times forecast international migration. So Scotland will still be empty relatively so will it be 'English Refugees welcome here' or '(Re-)Build the Wall'

    Reforms offerings don't seem to sit well with the regions so what's driving the Scottish romance with them?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492
    edited May 5
    Battlebus said:

    FPT from @malcolmg


    carnforth said:

    » show previous quotes
    I hear Scotland is empty.

    Filling up with immigrants being shipped from England actually, they got there before you


    The ONS projects a 0.3% growth in population (2024-2034) driven by cross-border immigration (110,000) which is 10 times forecast international migration. So Scotland will still be empty relatively so will it be 'English Refugees welcome here' or '(Re-)Build the Wall'

    Reforms offerings don't seem to sit well with the regions so what's driving the Scottish romance with them?
    Dare I make a joke about them having spent years voting for parties led by insular xenophobes with dodgy financial histories and dubious links to Russia?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    Certainly these are all key seats in deciding if the SNP win a majority or not. If the LDs win Edinburgh Northern, the Greens Edinburgh Central, Labour East Lothian Coast, the Conservatives Aberdeenshire West, Reform Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Ewing Inverness and Nairn and the LDs Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch then Swinney has no chance of that SNP majority he seeks. If Reform win Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley the SNP may not even have enough seats for a majority with the Greens and Swinney might have to do a confidence and supply deal with Sarwar and Scottish Labour to keep Reform out
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492
    edited May 5
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly these are all key seats in deciding if the SNP win a majority or not. If the LDs win Edinburgh Northern, the Greens Edinburgh Central, Labour East Lothian Coast, the Conservatives Aberdeenshire West, Reform Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Ewing Inverness and Nairn and the LDs Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch then Swinney has no chance of that SNP majority he seeks. If Reform win Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley the SNP may not even have enough seats for a majority with the Greens and Swinney might have to do a confidence and supply deal with Sarwar and Scottish Labour to keep Reform out

    The latter would be almost as funny as watching Eluned Morgan have to give Rhun ap Iorwerth confidence and supply.

    But only almost.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,137
    @rcs1000 still having frequent site down errors.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 635
    The sad state of politics in Holyrood, is that whoever wins these seats, we all lose.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,146
    Taz said:

    Boom

    First like Arsenal

    I picture that as pedalling furiously down a narrow lane pursued by an HGV, desperately trying to stay in front of the driver's front blind spot.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,137
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    Since you asked so nicely.

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2051558719679304067

    Just looking over some data ahead of our elections webinar later and Zack Polanski’s net approval rating has fallen by a fairly chunky 14 points over the last week. Still far ahead of Starmer but also puts him now well below the top three of Badenoch, Davey and Farage.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,287
    My sense of Edinburgh Northern is not enough LD voting areas have been added to make it a decent prospect for them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,676
    edited May 5
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    You know who is in freefall ?

    JD Vance approval rating falls to record low of 35% amid Trump’s declining popularity. -ABC
    https://x.com/DMichaelTripi/status/2051312960929210752

    The MAGA nomination market will be an interesting one.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,467
    Battlebus said:

    FPT from @malcolmg


    carnforth said:

    » show previous quotes
    I hear Scotland is empty.

    Filling up with immigrants being shipped from England actually, they got there before you


    The ONS projects a 0.3% growth in population (2024-2034) driven by cross-border immigration (110,000) which is 10 times forecast international migration. So Scotland will still be empty relatively so will it be 'English Refugees welcome here' or '(Re-)Build the Wall'

    Reforms offerings don't seem to sit well with the regions so what's driving the Scottish romance with them?
    God knows given they are worse than the normal carpetbaggers. Point was that it is asylum seekers that are being shipped up here , probably not by choice unlike the usual flow of English people coming here for a much better lifestyle. Lots of English people who are very welcome selling up and coming here, they can afford very nice houses and much better lifestyle.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,287
    Battlebus said:

    FPT from @malcolmg


    carnforth said:

    » show previous quotes
    I hear Scotland is empty.

    Filling up with immigrants being shipped from England actually, they got there before you


    The ONS projects a 0.3% growth in population (2024-2034) driven by cross-border immigration (110,000) which is 10 times forecast international migration. So Scotland will still be empty relatively so will it be 'English Refugees welcome here' or '(Re-)Build the Wall'

    Reforms offerings don't seem to sit well with the regions so what's driving the Scottish romance with them?
    The same as everywhere else - multi-generational deprivation in areas which used to have heavy industry. My partner thinks they will do very well based on chats with patients from those areas (look at the correlation with HLE, obesity etc).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    You know who is in freefall ?

    JD Vance approval rating falls to record low of 35% amid Trump’s declining popularity. -ABC
    https://x.com/DMichaelTripi/status/2051312960929210752
    His approval has fallen sofa.
    Bastard doesn't deserve a cushion.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,581
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    Since you asked so nicely.

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2051558719679304067

    Just looking over some data ahead of our elections webinar later and Zack Polanski’s net approval rating has fallen by a fairly chunky 14 points over the last week. Still far ahead of Starmer but also puts him now well below the top three of Badenoch, Davey and Farage.
    Thanks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rottenborough said:

    isam said:

    eek said:

    isam said:

    Malmesbury said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Apart from being thoroughly nasty, isn't the Yusuf/Farage plan for detention centre in 'Green' constituencies somewhat flawed? Given that any seats won by the Greens are likely to be on c. 30-35% of the vote, those who voted Reform in that constituency would be 'punished' as well. See Gorton and Denton for example.

    On reflection, I've no idea why I'm even giving such an unpleasant, unworkable and bizarre policy proposal the time of day.

    I don’t remember this effeminate outrage over the last 25 years, as successive governments, of all stripes, have dumped “difficult” migrants in poor, white, working class areas

    Weird
    I’ve said many times on here that immigrants should be houses in cheap new builds on the most expensive streets in the country, rather than dumped on struggling coastal towns. This policy from Reform isn’t much different I suppose. People are shrieking about it, but it is Green policy to accept refugees without fuss, and plenty of lefties wore ‘Refugees Welcome’ t-shirts so why should they be upset by it?
    How do you build cheap new builds on the most expensive streets in the country? To start with, the most expensive streets in the country tend to have a fair percentage of the street occupied already.
    I don't have a fully costed manifesto, but you get the gist. House the migrants in posh areas and let the people who aren't struggling for jobs, doctors appointments, school places etc suffer the consequences, rather than those who are already in bother having an added burden
    Please cost it - remembering that most builders can no longer afford to build in London because £500,000 a flat doesn't cover costs..
    Big caravan sites in Richmond Park, the Cotswolds, Hyde Park, Regents Park, the posh squares in London, Hampstead Heath, Sidmouth, Bristol, etc
    I dont see how "We are going to need massive detention camps in nice green suburban parts of England because we can't control the border" is a vote winner for Reform.

    It would toughen the other parties up on the issue. The areas I mentioned becoming detention centres wouldn’t bother Reform supporters too much

    The point is, mass immigration has fucked over the poor and the JAMs, while the rich profited financially and were immune to the social consequences. It’s time to redress the balance
    There's this bit in the West Wing where Jed Bartlett says something like "I'm the President of all Americans, not just the ones who voted for me".

    And for a long time, politics was like that.

    But we saw that break down in the US in recent years: during the government shutdown, the Trump administration deliberately withheld funds from Blue States, even as it sent them to Red States.

    No government should ever seek to govern only for those who voted it for it. There should never be 'punishment' for voting the wrong way.

    Now, if Farage had framed it as "we think the costs should be shared around, and it's wrong that the most deprived areas bear the brunt of these costs", that would have been fine. But "vote Green, get detention centres" is the kind of thing that riles me beyond belief.
    Worth repeating. A nasty and childish policy.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,473
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    rottenborough said:

    isam said:

    eek said:

    isam said:

    Malmesbury said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Apart from being thoroughly nasty, isn't the Yusuf/Farage plan for detention centre in 'Green' constituencies somewhat flawed? Given that any seats won by the Greens are likely to be on c. 30-35% of the vote, those who voted Reform in that constituency would be 'punished' as well. See Gorton and Denton for example.

    On reflection, I've no idea why I'm even giving such an unpleasant, unworkable and bizarre policy proposal the time of day.

    I don’t remember this effeminate outrage over the last 25 years, as successive governments, of all stripes, have dumped “difficult” migrants in poor, white, working class areas

    Weird
    I’ve said many times on here that immigrants should be houses in cheap new builds on the most expensive streets in the country, rather than dumped on struggling coastal towns. This policy from Reform isn’t much different I suppose. People are shrieking about it, but it is Green policy to accept refugees without fuss, and plenty of lefties wore ‘Refugees Welcome’ t-shirts so why should they be upset by it?
    How do you build cheap new builds on the most expensive streets in the country? To start with, the most expensive streets in the country tend to have a fair percentage of the street occupied already.
    I don't have a fully costed manifesto, but you get the gist. House the migrants in posh areas and let the people who aren't struggling for jobs, doctors appointments, school places etc suffer the consequences, rather than those who are already in bother having an added burden
    Please cost it - remembering that most builders can no longer afford to build in London because £500,000 a flat doesn't cover costs..
    Big caravan sites in Richmond Park, the Cotswolds, Hyde Park, Regents Park, the posh squares in London, Hampstead Heath, Sidmouth, Bristol, etc
    I dont see how "We are going to need massive detention camps in nice green suburban parts of England because we can't control the border" is a vote winner for Reform.

    It would toughen the other parties up on the issue. The areas I mentioned becoming detention centres wouldn’t bother Reform supporters too much

    The point is, mass immigration has fucked over the poor and the JAMs, while the rich profited financially and were immune to the social consequences. It’s time to redress the balance
    There's this bit in the West Wing where Jed Bartlett says something like "I'm the President of all Americans, not just the ones who voted for me".

    And for a long time, politics was like that.

    But we saw that break down in the US in recent years: during the government shutdown, the Trump administration deliberately withheld funds from Blue States, even as it sent them to Red States.

    No government should ever seek to govern only for those who voted it for it. There should never be 'punishment' for voting the wrong way.

    Now, if Farage had framed it as "we think the costs should be shared around, and it's wrong that the most deprived areas bear the brunt of these costs", that would have been fine. But "vote Green, get detention centres" is the kind of thing that riles me beyond belief.
    Worth repeating. A nasty and childish policy.
    A policy given to Farage by some tin eared US advisor, no doubt.

    More and more we see that the core of Reform looks like an Astroturfing operation by some very sinister Americans, with a side order of questionable money from elsewhere. Although Reform are still doing surprisingly well for the time being, based largely on defections from the Tories, their chances get weaker with every absurd aping of Trump they put out there.

    Any recovery for Badenoch and Farage will be in the bin.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,897
    My daughter now lives in the Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith constituency. Its another seat that seems to have changed out of all recognition making it difficult to work out who might be the closest challenger to the SNP. Any ideas?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,261
    edited May 5
    SNP has always played the Barnett formula ethos - we deserve more fiscal transfers. If England suffers from a demographic sclerosis due to its declining workforce (or growing depending on immigration numbers) what happens when England says enough. More aptly, will a Reform government be more generous to the regions than Lab/Con ones?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,401
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    Since you asked so nicely.

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2051558719679304067

    Just looking over some data ahead of our elections webinar later and Zack Polanski’s net approval rating has fallen by a fairly chunky 14 points over the last week. Still far ahead of Starmer but also puts him now well below the top three of Badenoch, Davey and Farage.
    When you are 11% below Nigel Farage in "how much am I loved?" stakes, you've had a bad week...

    No doubt the rise of Kemi to be the most loved in those stakes will be worthy of a header in due course. As the rest toxify themselves, is the electorate beginning to give the Tories a second look? Earlier than I expected, but hey, a week is a long time in politics. Especially this coming week.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,287
    edited May 5
    DavidL said:

    My daughter now lives in the Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith constituency. Its another seat that seems to have changed out of all recognition making it difficult to work out who might be the closest challenger to the SNP. Any ideas?

    Contains the whole of Leith Walk and Leith which will dominate the electorate due to the highest population density in Scotland - tens of thousands of Green voters. Lots of civil servants, parliamentary staff etc in Willowbrae/Duddingston (maybe LD?), I’d expect Craigentinny to go SNP.

    Portobello is very left nowadays but just outside the boundary.

  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 635
    DavidL said:

    My daughter now lives in the Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith constituency. Its another seat that seems to have changed out of all recognition making it difficult to work out who might be the closest challenger to the SNP. Any ideas?

    That's my constituency too, and TBH I have no idea.
    Like mentioned down thread, I don't think the Dems have enough, so probably Lab.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,450
    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    You know who is in freefall ?

    JD Vance approval rating falls to record low of 35% amid Trump’s declining popularity. -ABC
    https://x.com/DMichaelTripi/status/2051312960929210752
    His approval has fallen sofa.
    Bastard doesn't deserve a cushion.
    Vance committing political suttee?

    (Think about it…)
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,160
    MarqueeMark said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    Since you asked so nicely.

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2051558719679304067

    Just looking over some data ahead of our elections webinar later and Zack Polanski’s net approval rating has fallen by a fairly chunky 14 points over the last week. Still far ahead of Starmer but also puts him now well below the top three of Badenoch, Davey and Farage.
    When you are 11% below Nigel Farage in "how much am I loved?" stakes, you've had a bad week...

    No doubt the rise of Kemi to be the most loved in those stakes will be worthy of a header in due course. As the rest toxify themselves, is the electorate beginning to give the Tories a second look? Earlier than I expected, but hey, a week is a long time in politics. Especially this coming week.

    Clearly the billionaires are rattled
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,897
    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 635
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    My daughter now lives in the Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith constituency. Its another seat that seems to have changed out of all recognition making it difficult to work out who might be the closest challenger to the SNP. Any ideas?

    Contains the whole of Leith Walk and Leith which will dominate the electorate due to the highest population density in Scotland. Greens.
    My thoughts on the Greens come with heavy Parental Guidance warnings, but even so whilst the number of Vote Green flyers in windows is slightly higher around here than elsewhere, there is no green surge that I can see.
    I don't expect much, except on the list.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492
    StillWaters said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    You know who is in freefall ?

    JD Vance approval rating falls to record low of 35% amid Trump’s declining popularity. -ABC
    https://x.com/DMichaelTripi/status/2051312960929210752
    His approval has fallen sofa.
    Bastard doesn't deserve a cushion.
    Vance committing political suttee?

    (Think about it…)
    Very subtle, but given its connotations I'd be chary of such puns.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,287
    Sweeney74 said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    My daughter now lives in the Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith constituency. Its another seat that seems to have changed out of all recognition making it difficult to work out who might be the closest challenger to the SNP. Any ideas?

    Contains the whole of Leith Walk and Leith which will dominate the electorate due to the highest population density in Scotland. Greens.
    My thoughts on the Greens come with heavy Parental Guidance warnings, but even so whilst the number of Vote Green flyers in windows is slightly higher around here than elsewhere, there is no green surge that I can see.
    I don't expect much, except on the list.
    I don’t think they will win but probably the closest challenger (which was the question).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,401
    ydoethur said:

    StillWaters said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    You know who is in freefall ?

    JD Vance approval rating falls to record low of 35% amid Trump’s declining popularity. -ABC
    https://x.com/DMichaelTripi/status/2051312960929210752
    His approval has fallen sofa.
    Bastard doesn't deserve a cushion.
    Vance committing political suttee?

    (Think about it…)
    Very subtle, but given its connotations I'd be chary of such puns.
    Yes, have to be careful how you couch it...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,357
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    You know who is in freefall ?

    JD Vance approval rating falls to record low of 35% amid Trump’s declining popularity. -ABC
    https://x.com/DMichaelTripi/status/2051312960929210752

    The MAGA nomination market will be an interesting one.
    That assumes Trump lasts the course. If not, Vance will already be President.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,287
    edited May 5
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    The Lib Dems and Tories should really be sweeping up everywhere outside the central belt. I don’t understand how they can be so ineffective.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,401
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    Are you suggesting they will motor home to Govan again?
    Very good...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,467
    Sweeney74 said:

    The sad state of politics in Holyrood, is that whoever wins these seats, we all lose.

    Not as bad as the crap in Westminster though. What we need is independence and get real politician's rather than only choice being SNP. We will never prosper as long as we are a subset tacked onto England, gioven they rae 86% they will never do anything to benefit Scotland but will always look to keep their seats by looking at England and very especially London and south east. Why would they care what happens in Scotland or Wales.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,820
    MarqueeMark said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    Since you asked so nicely.

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2051558719679304067

    Just looking over some data ahead of our elections webinar later and Zack Polanski’s net approval rating has fallen by a fairly chunky 14 points over the last week. Still far ahead of Starmer but also puts him now well below the top three of Badenoch, Davey and Farage.
    When you are 11% below Nigel Farage in "how much am I loved?" stakes, you've had a bad week...

    No doubt the rise of Kemi to be the most loved in those stakes will be worthy of a header in due course. As the rest toxify themselves, is the electorate beginning to give the Tories a second look? Earlier than I expected, but hey, a week is a long time in politics. Especially this coming week.

    You will definitely reap the rewards from Zack Corbyn in North Herefordshire, but I am not sure your team will be the net beneficiaries in inner city bedsitland. Those voters are probably fairly comfortable with the wibblings of Jeremy Polanski.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,401
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    You know who is in freefall ?

    JD Vance approval rating falls to record low of 35% amid Trump’s declining popularity. -ABC
    https://x.com/DMichaelTripi/status/2051312960929210752

    The MAGA nomination market will be an interesting one.
    That assumes Trump lasts the course. If not, Vance will already be President.
    Vance in the unusual constitutional position that he can't be fired by Trump. So, as much as he falls out of favour to be replaced by Rubio in Donald's affections, Vance knows he still gets the job if Trump keels over. His very existence seems to be raising Trump's blood pressure lately.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,467
    Battlebus said:

    SNP has always played the Barnett formula ethos - we deserve more fiscal transfers. If England suffers from a demographic sclerosis due to its declining workforce (or growing depending on immigration numbers) what happens when England says enough. More aptly, will a Reform government be more generous to the regions than Lab/Con ones?

    Maybe the cowards will agree to a vote and we will eb free instead of a colony begging for scraps. We can decide how our money is spent , not some arsehole in Westminster.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,261
    malcolmg said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    The sad state of politics in Holyrood, is that whoever wins these seats, we all lose.

    Not as bad as the crap in Westminster though. What we need is independence and get real politician's rather than only choice being SNP. We will never prosper as long as we are a subset tacked onto England, gioven they rae 86% they will never do anything to benefit Scotland but will always look to keep their seats by looking at England and very especially London and south east. Why would they care what happens in Scotland or Wales.
    Given the issues in Scotland are far more pronounced that in the rest of the UK, you are probably correct. They could follow the Irish experiment of passports for all in the hope that those with a link to Scotland will return with their money. A welcome mat for Trump perhaps.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,897
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    Since you asked so nicely.

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2051558719679304067

    Just looking over some data ahead of our elections webinar later and Zack Polanski’s net approval rating has fallen by a fairly chunky 14 points over the last week. Still far ahead of Starmer but also puts him now well below the top three of Badenoch, Davey and Farage.
    If my popularity was below that of Badenoch, Davey and Farage I think I would be looking for another career. Probably why professional politics never appealed.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,897
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    The Lib Dems and Tories should really be sweeping up everywhere outside the central belt. I don’t understand how they can be so ineffective.
    Have you actually listened to either of them?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,492
    MarqueeMark said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    You know who is in freefall ?

    JD Vance approval rating falls to record low of 35% amid Trump’s declining popularity. -ABC
    https://x.com/DMichaelTripi/status/2051312960929210752

    The MAGA nomination market will be an interesting one.
    That assumes Trump lasts the course. If not, Vance will already be President.
    Vance in the unusual constitutional position that he can't be fired by Trump. So, as much as he falls out of favour to be replaced by Rubio in Donald's affections, Vance knows he still gets the job if Trump keels over. His very existence seems to be raising Trump's blood pressure lately.
    Could Trump try and have Vance impeached?

    Wouldn’t put it past him although that would be one with possible unintended consequences…
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 998
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    I my experience the voting in the Highlands is very much tied to the candidate, certainly much more than I ever noticed living in safe Labour seats in the north of England. I know fairly strong Unionists who would happily vote for Forbes, and did so.

    In Inverness I've had way more literature through for this election than ever before. Labour and Conservative are encouraging people to use their list votes for them while being more ambivalent on the Constituency vote, which might tell you something. As the post says, Lib Dems had a strong showing here at the GE.

    For what it's worth (precisely nothing), I'm going LD on the Constituency and Labour on the List - I reckon LD are the best Unionist party to stop the SNP on the Constituency vote and Labour because I'm baffled at the vitriol the Government is getting. They're just a bit shit, the alternatives generally look worse and so I want to send a signal of tepid approval.

    Ewing, despite the posters everywhere, hasn't put anything through my door.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,909
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    The Lib Dems and Tories should really be sweeping up everywhere outside the central belt. I don’t understand how they can be so ineffective.
    Are you new to Scotland?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,676
    StillWaters said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    You know who is in freefall ?

    JD Vance approval rating falls to record low of 35% amid Trump’s declining popularity. -ABC
    https://x.com/DMichaelTripi/status/2051312960929210752
    His approval has fallen sofa.
    Bastard doesn't deserve a cushion.
    Vance committing political suttee?

    (Think about it…)
    Are dreadful puns a settle'd policy now ?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,961
    DavidL said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    Since you asked so nicely.

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2051558719679304067

    Just looking over some data ahead of our elections webinar later and Zack Polanski’s net approval rating has fallen by a fairly chunky 14 points over the last week. Still far ahead of Starmer but also puts him now well below the top three of Badenoch, Davey and Farage.
    If my popularity was below that of Badenoch, Davey and Farage I think I would be looking for another career. Probably why professional politics never appealed.
    He could try finding gullible women who think that breast enlargment by hypnosis works..
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,897
    Unpopular said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    I my experience the voting in the Highlands is very much tied to the candidate, certainly much more than I ever noticed living in safe Labour seats in the north of England. I know fairly strong Unionists who would happily vote for Forbes, and did so.

    In Inverness I've had way more literature through for this election than ever before. Labour and Conservative are encouraging people to use their list votes for them while being more ambivalent on the Constituency vote, which might tell you something. As the post says, Lib Dems had a strong showing here at the GE.

    For what it's worth (precisely nothing), I'm going LD on the Constituency and Labour on the List - I reckon LD are the best Unionist party to stop the SNP on the Constituency vote and Labour because I'm baffled at the vitriol the Government is getting. They're just a bit shit, the alternatives generally look worse and so I want to send a signal of tepid approval.

    Ewing, despite the posters everywhere, hasn't put anything through my door.
    Kate Forbes was very much of the Salmond school and I have friends in Inverness who are strongly unionist but voted for her quite happily. It will be interesting to see how much the SNP vote unwinds with a different candidate. I would agree that in the Highlands the individual candidate seems to count for more, in Angus South I generally find out who they are when I get the ballot paper. FWIW I would probably also vote Lib Dem in the constituency vote where you are.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,401
    ydoethur said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    You know who is in freefall ?

    JD Vance approval rating falls to record low of 35% amid Trump’s declining popularity. -ABC
    https://x.com/DMichaelTripi/status/2051312960929210752

    The MAGA nomination market will be an interesting one.
    That assumes Trump lasts the course. If not, Vance will already be President.
    Vance in the unusual constitutional position that he can't be fired by Trump. So, as much as he falls out of favour to be replaced by Rubio in Donald's affections, Vance knows he still gets the job if Trump keels over. His very existence seems to be raising Trump's blood pressure lately.
    Could Trump try and have Vance impeached?

    Wouldn’t put it past him although that would be one with possible unintended consequences…
    That is one nuclear option that Trump won't touch...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,287
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    The Lib Dems and Tories should really be sweeping up everywhere outside the central belt. I don’t understand how they can be so ineffective.
    Are you new to Scotland?
    Heh. I’m not surprised, just remain confused. Davidson shows it is possible.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,897
    squareroot2 said:

    DavidL said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    Since you asked so nicely.

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2051558719679304067

    Just looking over some data ahead of our elections webinar later and Zack Polanski’s net approval rating has fallen by a fairly chunky 14 points over the last week. Still far ahead of Starmer but also puts him now well below the top three of Badenoch, Davey and Farage.
    If my popularity was below that of Badenoch, Davey and Farage I think I would be looking for another career. Probably why professional politics never appealed.
    He could try finding gullible women who think that breast enlargment by hypnosis works..
    I always had a suspicion that the main target for that was even more gullible men.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,676
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    You know who is in freefall ?

    JD Vance approval rating falls to record low of 35% amid Trump’s declining popularity. -ABC
    https://x.com/DMichaelTripi/status/2051312960929210752

    The MAGA nomination market will be an interesting one.
    That assumes Trump lasts the course. If not, Vance will already be President.
    That's what makes the market interesting.
    There's no obvious nominee, and a lot of possibles.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,401
    edited May 5
    squareroot2 said:

    DavidL said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    Since you asked so nicely.

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2051558719679304067

    Just looking over some data ahead of our elections webinar later and Zack Polanski’s net approval rating has fallen by a fairly chunky 14 points over the last week. Still far ahead of Starmer but also puts him now well below the top three of Badenoch, Davey and Farage.
    If my popularity was below that of Badenoch, Davey and Farage I think I would be looking for another career. Probably why professional politics never appealed.
    He could try finding gullible women who think that breast enlargment by hypnosis works..
    Be interested to know how that career path worked out.

    (I suspect at best it could just lead to one big tit...)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,134
    Anyone got any intel on the counting schedule for Thursday and Friday? I’m expecting it’s going to be a largely Friday count so I’m thinking its better to catch an early night on Thursday?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,676
    Davey is now issuing electoral threats.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/05/vote-lib-dem-or-regret-it-ed-davey-tells-voters-local-elections-reform-labour
    Voters in the home counties will “regret it for a long time” if they do not back the Liberal Democrats and wake up to a Reform-led council, Ed Davey has said.

    The Lib Dems leader has identified five councils – East Surrey, West Surrey, Hampshire, West Sussex and Huntingdonshire – where his party could win overall control, as well as swathes of the former “blue wall” where Davey said it was a “straight fight” between his party and Reform at the English local elections...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    malcolmg said:

    Battlebus said:

    SNP has always played the Barnett formula ethos - we deserve more fiscal transfers. If England suffers from a demographic sclerosis due to its declining workforce (or growing depending on immigration numbers) what happens when England says enough. More aptly, will a Reform government be more generous to the regions than Lab/Con ones?

    Maybe the cowards will agree to a vote and we will eb free instead of a colony begging for scraps. We can decide how our money is spent , not some arsehole in Westminster.
    If Westminster was a colony Holyrood would be scrapped and Scottish MPs expelled from Westminster not merely a refusal of indyref2
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,242
    Nigelb said:

    Davey is now issuing electoral threats.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/05/vote-lib-dem-or-regret-it-ed-davey-tells-voters-local-elections-reform-labour
    Voters in the home counties will “regret it for a long time” if they do not back the Liberal Democrats and wake up to a Reform-led council, Ed Davey has said.

    The Lib Dems leader has identified five councils – East Surrey, West Surrey, Hampshire, West Sussex and Huntingdonshire – where his party could win overall control, as well as swathes of the former “blue wall” where Davey said it was a “straight fight” between his party and Reform at the English local elections...

    Never change, Guardian:

    "This article was amended on 5 May 2026. An earlier version paraphrased Ed Davey as saying people should consider voting Green in Portsmouth to stop Reform; in fact, he said people should vote Lib Dem there."
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    Sweden’s new migration system. We need similar but harder

    “Big win for common sense in Sweden! 🇸🇪

    Riksdagen just passed tough new citizenship laws – and they kick in on our National Day, June 6th. 👌

    We’re done with the old “5 years and you’re in” system, especially when so many lived off benefits the whole time.

    Now: 8 years residency minimum.

    You’ve got to support yourself with a real job, speak proper Swedish, understand our values and society, and live a clean, law-abiding life.

    Swedish citizenship is now a PRIVILEGE you EARN – not some automatic right provided in a corn flakes box.

    After too many years of failed mass immigration and parallel societies, we’re finally restoring the true value of being Swedish.

    To the rest of Western Europe:

    Be like Sweden 😎”

    https://x.com/weimers/status/2051308212326920310?s=46
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    malcolmg said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    The sad state of politics in Holyrood, is that whoever wins these seats, we all lose.

    Not as bad as the crap in Westminster though. What we need is independence and get real politician's rather than only choice being SNP. We will never prosper as long as we are a subset tacked onto England, gioven they rae 86% they will never do anything to benefit Scotland but will always look to keep their seats by looking at England and very especially London and south east. Why would they care what happens in Scotland or Wales.
    London and the home counties pay more in tax than they receive in spending from Westminster in the rest of the UK it is the reverse
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,495
    ydoethur said:

    Battlebus said:

    FPT from @malcolmg


    carnforth said:

    » show previous quotes
    I hear Scotland is empty.

    Filling up with immigrants being shipped from England actually, they got there before you


    The ONS projects a 0.3% growth in population (2024-2034) driven by cross-border immigration (110,000) which is 10 times forecast international migration. So Scotland will still be empty relatively so will it be 'English Refugees welcome here' or '(Re-)Build the Wall'

    Reforms offerings don't seem to sit well with the regions so what's driving the Scottish romance with them?
    Dare I make a joke about them having spent years voting for parties led by insular xenophobes with dodgy financial histories and dubious links to Russia?
    I thought the SNP were known for panda-ing to China.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,864
    Nigelb said:

    Davey is now issuing electoral threats.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/may/05/vote-lib-dem-or-regret-it-ed-davey-tells-voters-local-elections-reform-labour
    Voters in the home counties will “regret it for a long time” if they do not back the Liberal Democrats and wake up to a Reform-led council, Ed Davey has said.

    The Lib Dems leader has identified five councils – East Surrey, West Surrey, Hampshire, West Sussex and Huntingdonshire – where his party could win overall control, as well as swathes of the former “blue wall” where Davey said it was a “straight fight” between his party and Reform at the English local elections...

    Sneaky - trying to get anti-LD voters to vote Reform rather than Tory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    The Lib Dems and Tories should really be sweeping up everywhere outside the central belt. I don’t understand how they can be so ineffective.
    Reform are taking half of the votes of the former even in Scotland though the LDs should gain a few SNP seats
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Zack Polanski’s approval currently in freefall

    Link please.
    You know who is in freefall ?

    JD Vance approval rating falls to record low of 35% amid Trump’s declining popularity. -ABC
    https://x.com/DMichaelTripi/status/2051312960929210752

    The MAGA nomination market will be an interesting one.
    Vance still leads that by miles
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,897
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    The Lib Dems and Tories should really be sweeping up everywhere outside the central belt. I don’t understand how they can be so ineffective.
    Reform are taking half of the votes of the former even in Scotland though the LDs should gain a few SNP seats
    One of the major defects of the Scottish system is that it makes very little difference who wins. If the Lib Dems do win the odd constituency off the SNP (I remain to be convinced personally) then they will lose them off the lists and the SNP are very likely to win an extra seat off the lists to make up for the loss of the constituency. Its somewhat unsatisfactory.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    numbertwelve said:

    Anyone got any intel on the counting schedule for Thursday and Friday? I’m expecting it’s going to be a largely Friday count so I’m thinking its better to catch an early night on Thursday?

    I’ve managed to find these two links .

    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/national/26065510.may-7-elections-hour-by-hour-guide-results/

    This one is a bit clearer with the councils in alphabetical order .

    https://www.enfieldindependent.co.uk/news/national/26032635.estimated-declaration-times-may-7-local-mayoral-elections/
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,596
    Leon said:

    Sweden’s new migration system. We need similar but harder

    “Big win for common sense in Sweden! 🇸🇪

    Riksdagen just passed tough new citizenship laws – and they kick in on our National Day, June 6th. 👌

    We’re done with the old “5 years and you’re in” system, especially when so many lived off benefits the whole time.

    Now: 8 years residency minimum.

    You’ve got to support yourself with a real job, speak proper Swedish, understand our values and society, and live a clean, law-abiding life.

    Swedish citizenship is now a PRIVILEGE you EARN – not some automatic right provided in a corn flakes box.

    After too many years of failed mass immigration and parallel societies, we’re finally restoring the true value of being Swedish.

    To the rest of Western Europe:

    Be like Sweden 😎”

    https://x.com/weimers/status/2051308212326920310?s=46

    Not sure how speaking proper Swedish would help us.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    Plus his Golders Green comments, the Greens should do well in inner cities though this week
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,897
    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    I think you are grossly underestimating the invulnerability to embarrassment of the modern politician. In any serious country Farage would already be free to spend a lot more time with his £5m and would be off the stage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,880
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    The Lib Dems and Tories should really be sweeping up everywhere outside the central belt. I don’t understand how they can be so ineffective.
    Reform are taking half of the votes of the former even in Scotland though the LDs should gain a few SNP seats
    One of the major defects of the Scottish system is that it makes very little difference who wins. If the Lib Dems do win the odd constituency off the SNP (I remain to be convinced personally) then they will lose them off the lists and the SNP are very likely to win an extra seat off the lists to make up for the loss of the constituency. Its somewhat unsatisfactory.
    Indeed though the LDs should gain Caithness from the SNP
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,467
    Battlebus said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    The sad state of politics in Holyrood, is that whoever wins these seats, we all lose.

    Not as bad as the crap in Westminster though. What we need is independence and get real politician's rather than only choice being SNP. We will never prosper as long as we are a subset tacked onto England, gioven they rae 86% they will never do anything to benefit Scotland but will always look to keep their seats by looking at England and very especially London and south east. Why would they care what happens in Scotland or Wales.
    Given the issues in Scotland are far more pronounced that in the rest of the UK, you are probably correct. They could follow the Irish experiment of passports for all in the hope that those with a link to Scotland will return with their money. A welcome mat for Trump perhaps.
    That would be too far
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,233
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    The Lib Dems and Tories should really be sweeping up everywhere outside the central belt. I don’t understand how they can be so ineffective.
    Reform are taking half of the votes of the former even in Scotland though the LDs should gain a few SNP seats
    One of the major defects of the Scottish system is that it makes very little difference who wins. If the Lib Dems do win the odd constituency off the SNP (I remain to be convinced personally) then they will lose them off the lists and the SNP are very likely to win an extra seat off the lists to make up for the loss of the constituency. Its somewhat unsatisfactory.
    Ah, well, that depends. In recent elections we've seen a growth in SNP-Green tactical voting, where independence-minded voters vote SNP in the constituencies and Green in the lists, which is a way that ~half of the vote could return ~three-quarters of the seats.

    So the worst-case scenario for the SNP sees them lose a clutch of constituency seats, and not pick up any compensating list seats, because their list vote had gone Green.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    I think you are grossly underestimating the invulnerability to embarrassment of the modern politician. In any serious country Farage would already be free to spend a lot more time with his £5m and would be off the stage.
    Farage being a fairly shameless grifter is factored in. Polanski being an outright anti-Semite is not. His party is already in trouble on this issue, activists have been arrested, the deputy leader is suspicious, and now the leader seems to be tainted. And also an idiot

    Most of the nation has reeled back in horror at the violent anti-Semitic attacks these last weeks. The scales have dropped and a pushback is beginning

    Sure, a nasty chunk of British society is now anti-Semitic, partly home grown nutters, partly imported Muslim values. But it’s a small chunk, I think. Nothing like the 20%+ the Greens need to make a real breakthrough

    See the plunge in Polanski’s polling this week. Expect them to underperform on Thursday. Expect Polanski to go in months
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 269
    Leon said:

    Sweden’s new migration system. We need similar but harder

    “Big win for common sense in Sweden! 🇸🇪

    Riksdagen just passed tough new citizenship laws – and they kick in on our National Day, June 6th. 👌

    We’re done with the old “5 years and you’re in” system, especially when so many lived off benefits the whole time.

    Now: 8 years residency minimum.

    You’ve got to support yourself with a real job, speak proper Swedish, understand our values and society, and live a clean, law-abiding life.

    Swedish citizenship is now a PRIVILEGE you EARN – not some automatic right provided in a corn flakes box.

    After too many years of failed mass immigration and parallel societies, we’re finally restoring the true value of being Swedish.

    To the rest of Western Europe:

    Be like Sweden 😎”

    https://x.com/weimers/status/2051308212326920310?s=46

    Funnily enough my sister gained Swedish citizenship a few months ago (5 years residency, barely any Swedish), I can only assume that was the last straw for the Swedes.

    My plan to claim asylum and a lovely EU passport via ECHR right to family life is still in play of course.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,965
    nico67 said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Anyone got any intel on the counting schedule for Thursday and Friday? I’m expecting it’s going to be a largely Friday count so I’m thinking its better to catch an early night on Thursday?

    I’ve managed to find these two links .

    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/national/26065510.may-7-elections-hour-by-hour-guide-results/

    This one is a bit clearer with the councils in alphabetical order .

    https://www.enfieldindependent.co.uk/news/national/26032635.estimated-declaration-times-may-7-local-mayoral-elections/
    All very spread out. I'm getting an early night on Thursday, so I can be bright-eyed and bushy-tailed for the Camden count starting at 9am.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,160
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Sweden’s new migration system. We need similar but harder

    “Big win for common sense in Sweden! 🇸🇪

    Riksdagen just passed tough new citizenship laws – and they kick in on our National Day, June 6th. 👌

    We’re done with the old “5 years and you’re in” system, especially when so many lived off benefits the whole time.

    Now: 8 years residency minimum.

    You’ve got to support yourself with a real job, speak proper Swedish, understand our values and society, and live a clean, law-abiding life.

    Swedish citizenship is now a PRIVILEGE you EARN – not some automatic right provided in a corn flakes box.

    After too many years of failed mass immigration and parallel societies, we’re finally restoring the true value of being Swedish.

    To the rest of Western Europe:

    Be like Sweden 😎”

    https://x.com/weimers/status/2051308212326920310?s=46

    Not sure how speaking proper Swedish would help us.
    Maybe useful in Ikea in the Metro centre
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,874
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    I think you are grossly underestimating the invulnerability to embarrassment of the modern politician. In any serious country Farage would already be free to spend a lot more time with his £5m and would be off the stage.
    See also JCorbz, Bozza, Truss...

    Trouble is that the overlap between "enough self-confidence to survive in modern politics" and "enough self-doubt to engage with reality and be any good at governing" is teeny-tiny.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,897
    LostPassword said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    The Lib Dems and Tories should really be sweeping up everywhere outside the central belt. I don’t understand how they can be so ineffective.
    Reform are taking half of the votes of the former even in Scotland though the LDs should gain a few SNP seats
    One of the major defects of the Scottish system is that it makes very little difference who wins. If the Lib Dems do win the odd constituency off the SNP (I remain to be convinced personally) then they will lose them off the lists and the SNP are very likely to win an extra seat off the lists to make up for the loss of the constituency. Its somewhat unsatisfactory.
    Ah, well, that depends. In recent elections we've seen a growth in SNP-Green tactical voting, where independence-minded voters vote SNP in the constituencies and Green in the lists, which is a way that ~half of the vote could return ~three-quarters of the seats.

    So the worst-case scenario for the SNP sees them lose a clutch of constituency seats, and not pick up any compensating list seats, because their list vote had gone Green.
    Which is why the SNP constantly urge people to vote SNP twice, to the frustration of those who actually want independence.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,467
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    The Lib Dems and Tories should really be sweeping up everywhere outside the central belt. I don’t understand how they can be so ineffective.
    Are you new to Scotland?
    Stuck in Morningside
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    bondegezou said:

    nico67 said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Anyone got any intel on the counting schedule for Thursday and Friday? I’m expecting it’s going to be a largely Friday count so I’m thinking its better to catch an early night on Thursday?

    I’ve managed to find these two links .

    https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/national/26065510.may-7-elections-hour-by-hour-guide-results/

    This one is a bit clearer with the councils in alphabetical order .

    https://www.enfieldindependent.co.uk/news/national/26032635.estimated-declaration-times-may-7-local-mayoral-elections/
    All very spread out. I'm getting an early night on Thursday, so I can be bright-eyed and bushy-tailed for the Camden count starting at 9am.
    There are a few early bellwethers for night owls . I might hang on till around 2 am then turn in !
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,433
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    I think you are grossly underestimating the invulnerability to embarrassment of the modern politician. In any serious country Farage would already be free to spend a lot more time with his £5m and would be off the stage.
    Farage being a fairly shameless grifter is factored in. Polanski being an outright anti-Semite is not. His party is already in trouble on this issue, activists have been arrested, the deputy leader is suspicious, and now the leader seems to be tainted. And also an idiot

    Most of the nation has reeled back in horror at the violent anti-Semitic attacks these last weeks. The scales have dropped and a pushback is beginning

    Sure, a nasty chunk of British society is now anti-Semitic, partly home grown nutters, partly imported Muslim values. But it’s a small chunk, I think. Nothing like the 20%+ the Greens need to make a real breakthrough

    See the plunge in Polanski’s polling this week. Expect them to underperform on Thursday. Expect Polanski to go in months
    Well, I'm still voting Green. And I expect our hard-working Green County Councillor to hold his seat.

    Someone does to take Polanski aside though, and quietly talk to him about not frightening the horses that way.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,433
    Stuartinromford said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    I think you are grossly underestimating the invulnerability to embarrassment of the modern politician. In any serious country Farage would already be free to spend a lot more time with his £5m and would be off the stage.
    See also JCorbz, Bozza, Truss...

    Trouble is that the overlap between "enough self-confidence to survive in modern politics" and "enough self-doubt to engage with reality and be any good at governing" is teeny-tiny.
    Just see what's happened in the USA!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,897
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    I think you are grossly underestimating the invulnerability to embarrassment of the modern politician. In any serious country Farage would already be free to spend a lot more time with his £5m and would be off the stage.
    Farage being a fairly shameless grifter is factored in. Polanski being an outright anti-Semite is not. His party is already in trouble on this issue, activists have been arrested, the deputy leader is suspicious, and now the leader seems to be tainted. And also an idiot

    Most of the nation has reeled back in horror at the violent anti-Semitic attacks these last weeks. The scales have dropped and a pushback is beginning

    Sure, a nasty chunk of British society is now anti-Semitic, partly home grown nutters, partly imported Muslim values. But it’s a small chunk, I think. Nothing like the 20%+ the Greens need to make a real breakthrough

    See the plunge in Polanski’s polling this week. Expect them to underperform on Thursday. Expect Polanski to go in months
    What you mean by "factored in" is that a significant part of the electorate are willing to just ignore it. Many will be utterly appalled by Polanski's antisemitism but I fear many of those voting Green will have the same response and some of their more recent supporters might even like it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,160
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    I think you are grossly underestimating the invulnerability to embarrassment of the modern politician. In any serious country Farage would already be free to spend a lot more time with his £5m and would be off the stage.
    Farage being a fairly shameless grifter is factored in. Polanski being an outright anti-Semite is not. His party is already in trouble on this issue, activists have been arrested, the deputy leader is suspicious, and now the leader seems to be tainted. And also an idiot

    Most of the nation has reeled back in horror at the violent anti-Semitic attacks these last weeks. The scales have dropped and a pushback is beginning

    Sure, a nasty chunk of British society is now anti-Semitic, partly home grown nutters, partly imported Muslim values. But it’s a small chunk, I think. Nothing like the 20%+ the Greens need to make a real breakthrough

    See the plunge in Polanski’s polling this week. Expect them to underperform on Thursday. Expect Polanski to go in months
    At a local level I’ve voted Indy recently, although one jumped to Reform.

    I’ve always thought I could consider Green locally and Reform nationally.

    Reform have put me off recently and the Greens Jew hate puts me off them. The response from some Greens to labours recent attack ad on them was appalling as the initial comments themselves.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,160
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    I think you are grossly underestimating the invulnerability to embarrassment of the modern politician. In any serious country Farage would already be free to spend a lot more time with his £5m and would be off the stage.
    Farage being a fairly shameless grifter is factored in. Polanski being an outright anti-Semite is not. His party is already in trouble on this issue, activists have been arrested, the deputy leader is suspicious, and now the leader seems to be tainted. And also an idiot

    Most of the nation has reeled back in horror at the violent anti-Semitic attacks these last weeks. The scales have dropped and a pushback is beginning

    Sure, a nasty chunk of British society is now anti-Semitic, partly home grown nutters, partly imported Muslim values. But it’s a small chunk, I think. Nothing like the 20%+ the Greens need to make a real breakthrough

    See the plunge in Polanski’s polling this week. Expect them to underperform on Thursday. Expect Polanski to go in months
    What you mean by "factored in" is that a significant part of the electorate are willing to just ignore it. Many will be utterly appalled by Polanski's antisemitism but I fear many of those voting Green will have the same response and some of their more recent supporters might even like it.
    Same with some of those voting Reform and Muslims I’d guess.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,725
    edited May 5
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    I think you are grossly underestimating the invulnerability to embarrassment of the modern politician. In any serious country Farage would already be free to spend a lot more time with his £5m and would be off the stage.
    Farage being a fairly shameless grifter is factored in. Polanski being an outright anti-Semite is not. His party is already in trouble on this issue, activists have been arrested, the deputy leader is suspicious, and now the leader seems to be tainted. And also an idiot

    Most of the nation has reeled back in horror at the violent anti-Semitic attacks these last weeks. The scales have dropped and a pushback is beginning

    Sure, a nasty chunk of British society is now anti-Semitic, partly home grown nutters, partly imported Muslim values. But it’s a small chunk, I think. Nothing like the 20%+ the Greens need to make a real breakthrough

    See the plunge in Polanski’s polling this week. Expect them to underperform on Thursday. Expect Polanski to go in months
    We're in a very bad place if it's 'factored in' (ie known and accepted) that the head of the party leading the polls and favourites to win the next election is corrupt and unfit to be PM. So I rather hope it isn't. I'd prefer to think there are many potential Reform voters who do not yet see Farage clearly but are capable of doing so between now and whenever that election comes.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    Leon said:

    Sweden’s new migration system. We need similar but harder

    “Big win for common sense in Sweden! 🇸🇪

    Riksdagen just passed tough new citizenship laws – and they kick in on our National Day, June 6th. 👌

    We’re done with the old “5 years and you’re in” system, especially when so many lived off benefits the whole time.

    Now: 8 years residency minimum.

    You’ve got to support yourself with a real job, speak proper Swedish, understand our values and society, and live a clean, law-abiding life.

    Swedish citizenship is now a PRIVILEGE you EARN – not some automatic right provided in a corn flakes box.

    After too many years of failed mass immigration and parallel societies, we’re finally restoring the true value of being Swedish.

    To the rest of Western Europe:

    Be like Sweden 😎”

    https://x.com/weimers/status/2051308212326920310?s=46

    For citizenship we already have language, culture and values tests, plus have to be financially sound, provide tax records and be of good character which rules out all with criminal convictions of 1 year or more plus those with lesser criminal convictions are assessed by the home office who have to be satisfied the applicant is of good character.

    Essentially you are proposing what we have with an extension from 5 years to 8. The home secretary is proposing 10+ years.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,965
    guybrush said:

    Leon said:

    Sweden’s new migration system. We need similar but harder

    “Big win for common sense in Sweden! 🇸🇪

    Riksdagen just passed tough new citizenship laws – and they kick in on our National Day, June 6th. 👌

    We’re done with the old “5 years and you’re in” system, especially when so many lived off benefits the whole time.

    Now: 8 years residency minimum.

    You’ve got to support yourself with a real job, speak proper Swedish, understand our values and society, and live a clean, law-abiding life.

    Swedish citizenship is now a PRIVILEGE you EARN – not some automatic right provided in a corn flakes box.

    After too many years of failed mass immigration and parallel societies, we’re finally restoring the true value of being Swedish.

    To the rest of Western Europe:

    Be like Sweden 😎”

    https://x.com/weimers/status/2051308212326920310?s=46

    Funnily enough my sister gained Swedish citizenship a few months ago (5 years residency, barely any Swedish), I can only assume that was the last straw for the Swedes.

    My plan to claim asylum and a lovely EU passport via ECHR right to family life is still in play of course.
    Is Swedish citizenship shortened to Switizenship? If not, I suggest we start doing this.

    Oh, f***. I forgot about Switzerland.

    Sweetizenship?
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    I think you are grossly underestimating the invulnerability to embarrassment of the modern politician. In any serious country Farage would already be free to spend a lot more time with his £5m and would be off the stage.
    Farage being a fairly shameless grifter is factored in. Polanski being an outright anti-Semite is not. His party is already in trouble on this issue, activists have been arrested, the deputy leader is suspicious, and now the leader seems to be tainted. And also an idiot

    Most of the nation has reeled back in horror at the violent anti-Semitic attacks these last weeks. The scales have dropped and a pushback is beginning

    Sure, a nasty chunk of British society is now anti-Semitic, partly home grown nutters, partly imported Muslim values. But it’s a small chunk, I think. Nothing like the 20%+ the Greens need to make a real breakthrough

    See the plunge in Polanski’s polling this week. Expect them to underperform on Thursday. Expect Polanski to go in months
    What you mean by "factored in" is that a significant part of the electorate are willing to just ignore it. Many will be utterly appalled by Polanski's antisemitism but I fear many of those voting Green will have the same response and some of their more recent supporters might even like it.
    Which is exactly what I said. Some of his recent converts - the quasi Islamists, the Gaza indies, the Jew hating students - love all this stuff

    Britain as a whole does not. The maximum vote for a fairly openly anti Semitic party is 10-15%. Disturbingly high but not enough to break through

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,909
    DavidL said:

    LostPassword said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    The Lib Dems and Tories should really be sweeping up everywhere outside the central belt. I don’t understand how they can be so ineffective.
    Reform are taking half of the votes of the former even in Scotland though the LDs should gain a few SNP seats
    One of the major defects of the Scottish system is that it makes very little difference who wins. If the Lib Dems do win the odd constituency off the SNP (I remain to be convinced personally) then they will lose them off the lists and the SNP are very likely to win an extra seat off the lists to make up for the loss of the constituency. Its somewhat unsatisfactory.
    Ah, well, that depends. In recent elections we've seen a growth in SNP-Green tactical voting, where independence-minded voters vote SNP in the constituencies and Green in the lists, which is a way that ~half of the vote could return ~three-quarters of the seats.

    So the worst-case scenario for the SNP sees them lose a clutch of constituency seats, and not pick up any compensating list seats, because their list vote had gone Green.
    Which is why the SNP constantly urge people to vote SNP twice, to the frustration of those who actually want independence.
    Good to see you on board with an SNP/Green majority = Indyref II. Means you're on HYUFD's shitlist though.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,965
    DavidL said:

    LostPassword said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Inverness saga is quite a story, and the Forbes one scarce less interesting. The SNP's anxiety to expand in the Central Belt seems to have been at the expense of the broad coalition they had so successfully assembled under Salmond.

    I was mildly amused at the idea the idea the Lib Dems and SNP are fighting hard over Badenoch.

    Salmond actually paid attention to making money and a viable economy. This generally got him a hearing in the traditional, rural parts of Scotland with Tartan Tories very much a thing.

    Under Sturgeon the SNP moved leftwards and became far more focused on the central belt. This has been electorally far more successful because Labour has proven a very weak opponent and, of course, this is where the majority of the population is. The approach has caused strains in some of the more traditional SNP (ex Tory) seats but further weakness on the part of the Tories has seen them home in the main. With the Tory vote being further split by Reform I am not seeing much of a threat to the SNP hegemony this time around.
    The Lib Dems and Tories should really be sweeping up everywhere outside the central belt. I don’t understand how they can be so ineffective.
    Reform are taking half of the votes of the former even in Scotland though the LDs should gain a few SNP seats
    One of the major defects of the Scottish system is that it makes very little difference who wins. If the Lib Dems do win the odd constituency off the SNP (I remain to be convinced personally) then they will lose them off the lists and the SNP are very likely to win an extra seat off the lists to make up for the loss of the constituency. Its somewhat unsatisfactory.
    Ah, well, that depends. In recent elections we've seen a growth in SNP-Green tactical voting, where independence-minded voters vote SNP in the constituencies and Green in the lists, which is a way that ~half of the vote could return ~three-quarters of the seats.

    So the worst-case scenario for the SNP sees them lose a clutch of constituency seats, and not pick up any compensating list seats, because their list vote had gone Green.
    Which is why the SNP constantly urge people to vote SNP twice, to the frustration of those who actually want independence.
    We need to start a new unionist party, the Vote for Us on the List to Exploit This One Weird Trick in Additional Member Systems and Oppose Independence Party.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,233
    OldKingCole said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    I think you are grossly underestimating the invulnerability to embarrassment of the modern politician. In any serious country Farage would already be free to spend a lot more time with his £5m and would be off the stage.
    Farage being a fairly shameless grifter is factored in. Polanski being an outright anti-Semite is not. His party is already in trouble on this issue, activists have been arrested, the deputy leader is suspicious, and now the leader seems to be tainted. And also an idiot

    Most of the nation has reeled back in horror at the violent anti-Semitic attacks these last weeks. The scales have dropped and a pushback is beginning

    Sure, a nasty chunk of British society is now anti-Semitic, partly home grown nutters, partly imported Muslim values. But it’s a small chunk, I think. Nothing like the 20%+ the Greens need to make a real breakthrough

    See the plunge in Polanski’s polling this week. Expect them to underperform on Thursday. Expect Polanski to go in months
    Well, I'm still voting Green. And I expect our hard-working Green County Councillor to hold his seat.

    Someone does to take Polanski aside though, and quietly talk to him about not frightening the horses that way.
    Would he listen though? I get the impression that he's in his digital bubble and he'd be quite antagonistic to a contrary view.

    At the end of the day, with Corbyn, I couldn't decide whether he was actively anti-semitic, stupid, or incapable of leading his party to deal with anti-semites. But it didn't really matter - any one of the options made him not good enough.

    Polanski risks the same conclusion. Particularly after seeing what happened to Corbyn over this issue you would have to be really stupid to fail the same way. I'm sure his right-wing opponents can't believe their luck.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    Incidentally, Badenoch is getting a ton of love on X. Especially that recent impromptu speech at a hustings, squashing the Jew haters

    It is deeply impressive. Her polling improvement is also striking. Can she single handedly pull the Tories back into contention? It would be one of the most extraordinary comebacks in British political history.

    I still don’t think it’s likely but I believe it’s now plausible
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,433
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    I think you are grossly underestimating the invulnerability to embarrassment of the modern politician. In any serious country Farage would already be free to spend a lot more time with his £5m and would be off the stage.
    Farage being a fairly shameless grifter is factored in. Polanski being an outright anti-Semite is not. His party is already in trouble on this issue, activists have been arrested, the deputy leader is suspicious, and now the leader seems to be tainted. And also an idiot

    Most of the nation has reeled back in horror at the violent anti-Semitic attacks these last weeks. The scales have dropped and a pushback is beginning

    Sure, a nasty chunk of British society is now anti-Semitic, partly home grown nutters, partly imported Muslim values. But it’s a small chunk, I think. Nothing like the 20%+ the Greens need to make a real breakthrough

    See the plunge in Polanski’s polling this week. Expect them to underperform on Thursday. Expect Polanski to go in months
    What you mean by "factored in" is that a significant part of the electorate are willing to just ignore it. Many will be utterly appalled by Polanski's antisemitism but I fear many of those voting Green will have the same response and some of their more recent supporters might even like it.
    Which is exactly what I said. Some of his recent converts - the quasi Islamists, the Gaza indies, the Jew hating students - love all this stuff

    Britain as a whole does not. The maximum vote for a fairly openly anti Semitic party is 10-15%. Disturbingly high but not enough to break through

    I wouldn't vote, at National level anyway, bearing in mind what I posted a few minutes ago, for an anti-semitic party. I would though vote for an anti-netanyahu one!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 27,958
    OldKingCole said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    We must factor in the strong possibility of a late implosion from the Greens. Polanski is a Jezbollah-style disaster with extra titty-whispering

    From the Telegraph

    “Polanski liked post claiming Zionists control Government
    The Green Party leader endorses Bluesky message which claims Prime Minister is on the payroll of powerful Jews”

    Whatever the result of the election I predict Polanski will be gone within months

    I think you are grossly underestimating the invulnerability to embarrassment of the modern politician. In any serious country Farage would already be free to spend a lot more time with his £5m and would be off the stage.
    See also JCorbz, Bozza, Truss...

    Trouble is that the overlap between "enough self-confidence to survive in modern politics" and "enough self-doubt to engage with reality and be any good at governing" is teeny-tiny.
    Just see what's happened in the USA!
    Do I really have to?
This discussion has been closed.

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