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This is bad news for people laying Andy Burnham as next Prime Minister – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,956
    edited May 3

    Sir Keir Starmer is facing a backlash after he called for a ban on some pro-Palestine protests as part of a crackdown on antisemitism.

    The prime minister suggested there were “instances” where it was appropriate to prevent such marches happening on UK streets –as they have done in France – as he said he would fight “with every breath I have” for a diverse and tolerant Britain following a series of attacks on Jewish communities in recent weeks, including the Golders Green terror attack.

    But even his government’s own independent adviser on antisemitism said it would be “unconscionable” to outlaw peaceful pro-Palestine protests opposing Israel’s actions in the Middle East.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/starmer-ban-protest-palestine-antisemitism-b2969500.html

    Its just posturing. He is a lawyer, who has fought for human rights, right to protest etc, he knows they won't be able to ban these protests without also banning all sorts of other things. At best, perhaps you can put your thumb on the scale in terms of adding extra paperwork to try and reduce regularity. But even phrases like Globalise the Interfada, the police made it clear they are taking an extremely generous interpretation of it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,347
    Violent BBC presenter broke his female colleague's wrist in attack 'hushed up by bosses': Corporation faces new cover-up claims
    ...
    The Mail on Sunday knows the identity of the two people involved, but has decided not to identify them.

    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15785535/Violent-BBC-presenter-broke-female-colleagues-wrist-attack-hushed-bosses-latest-cover-following-Scott-Mills-Huw-Edwards-scandals.html

    Unintended irony from the Mail on Sunday?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,255

    Since September 2025, under the one in, one out system, and as of 24 April, 561 people have been removed to France after arriving in the UK on small boats, with 551 brought legally to the UK. Just days before these figures were released, 602 asylum seekers arrived on small boats on 18 April, raising questions about the deterrent value of the scheme.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/may/02/asylum-seeker-sent-france-one-in-one-out-returned-syria

    561 is that it....

    Just a reminder that the ONS population projection assumes 700,000 immigrants per year for the next 10 years - ones that stay to become part of the UK population.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/datasets/tablea11principalprojectionuksummary
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,928
    Weird, thought this had posted.

    Anyway, good morning. The race has been moved three hours earlier, starting 6pm UK time.

    https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/breaking-new-start-time-confirmed-for-miami-grand-prix-following-weather-concerns.36mNfBCj5LLIRbgxAgjZIn
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,928
    F1: I remain annoyed that in the 8 hours or so since qualifying the Ladbrokes markets aren't actually up yet.

    Humbug.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,347

    F1: I remain annoyed that in the 8 hours or so since qualifying the Ladbrokes markets aren't actually up yet.

    Humbug.

    Ladbrokes Miami Grand Prix markets are up now.
    https://www.ladbrokes.com/en/sports/event/formula-1/formula-1/world-championship/gp-miami-race/255149684/main-markets
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,928

    F1: I remain annoyed that in the 8 hours or so since qualifying the Ladbrokes markets aren't actually up yet.

    Humbug.

    Ladbrokes Miami Grand Prix markets are up now.
    https://www.ladbrokes.com/en/sports/event/formula-1/formula-1/world-championship/gp-miami-race/255149684/main-markets
    Sorry, wasn't precise enough: some of the markets are up, but there are a lot more they'll add (group betting, lap 1 leader etc).

    I appreciate the heads up. My sleepy error being accidentally misleading.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,989
    theProle said:

    carnforth said:

    Preparations begin...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c794zd1vqn4o

    "Airlines can cancel flights in advance over fuel shortages, under new plans"

    It makes a lot of sense; if there are going to be serious shortages, frankly the last thing we should be doing with the available resources is burning it so people can go on their holibobs. Most air travel is moderately frivolous - things like power generation and food supply really aren't.
    Unless someone has a monopoly they're abusing there shouldn't be a rule that you have to use your slot to keep it in the first place. Just sell it to the highest bidder and let them fill it or not.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,347

    theProle said:

    carnforth said:

    Preparations begin...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c794zd1vqn4o

    "Airlines can cancel flights in advance over fuel shortages, under new plans"

    It makes a lot of sense; if there are going to be serious shortages, frankly the last thing we should be doing with the available resources is burning it so people can go on their holibobs. Most air travel is moderately frivolous - things like power generation and food supply really aren't.
    Unless someone has a monopoly they're abusing there shouldn't be a rule that you have to use your slot to keep it in the first place. Just sell it to the highest bidder and let them fill it or not.
    No way that could be abused to shut out small airlines from lucrative routes. Or is there?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,953
    Another candidate suspended for antisemitism, saying “Hitler was right”… although this one is a Conservative!

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-tory-local-election-candidate-suspended-hitler-jewish-b1280608.html
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,356
    theProle said:

    carnforth said:

    Preparations begin...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c794zd1vqn4o

    "Airlines can cancel flights in advance over fuel shortages, under new plans"

    It makes a lot of sense; if there are going to be serious shortages, frankly the last thing we should be doing with the available resources is burning it so people can go on their holibobs. Most air travel is moderately frivolous - things like power generation and food supply really aren't.
    There's lots of evidence that holidays make workers reduce stress, improve mental health and make workers significantly more productive. So travelling is far from frivolous.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,953

    Another candidate suspended for antisemitism, saying “Hitler was right”… although this one is a Conservative!

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-tory-local-election-candidate-suspended-hitler-jewish-b1280608.html

    But here’s another Green candidate: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g05pkqyxko
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,953

    Another candidate suspended for antisemitism, saying “Hitler was right”… although this one is a Conservative!

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-tory-local-election-candidate-suspended-hitler-jewish-b1280608.html

    But here’s another Green candidate: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g05pkqyxko
    And here’s a Reform candidate being racist: https://hopenothate.org.uk/2026/05/01/melt-them-all-down-and-fill-in-the-potholes-the-bizarre-racist-rant-from-sunderland-reform-candidate/

    Were our prospective politicians always like this and social media just let’s us see it, or has social media encouraged more extreme views and language?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323

    Am I the only one who thinks Andy Burnham is a complete pillock?

    No ! He grates on me . I’m already bored of the whole saga surrounding him .
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,255

    Am I the only one who thinks Andy Burnham is a complete pillock?

    Interesting word 'pillock'. It was historically used as an endearing term for a man or boy and appears in Shakespeare’s King Lear.

    Presume you mean the modern usage. And no.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490

    Am I the only one who thinks Andy Burnham is a complete pillock?

    Yes. Those of us who live in Mid Staffs would say he is lacking a brain and therefore not complete.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490

    Another candidate suspended for antisemitism, saying “Hitler was right”… although this one is a Conservative!

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-tory-local-election-candidate-suspended-hitler-jewish-b1280608.html

    But here’s another Green candidate: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g05pkqyxko
    And here’s a Reform candidate being racist: https://hopenothate.org.uk/2026/05/01/melt-them-all-down-and-fill-in-the-potholes-the-bizarre-racist-rant-from-sunderland-reform-candidate/

    Were our prospective politicians always like this and social media just lets us see it, or has social media encouraged more extreme views and language?
    I suspect a mix of both. Churchill would never have got away with his private remarks today, but there is a doom loop of reinforced behaviour as people see others who agree with them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,490
    I actually think Starmer is lucky that opposition to him seems to be coalescing around Burnham, who is (a) not eligible and (b) not really a serious candidate.

    If it were Rayner, Cooper, or Streeting he would be in much more trouble.

    For this, ironically, he has Burnham to thank for his continual pot stirring...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,347
    ydoethur said:

    Another candidate suspended for antisemitism, saying “Hitler was right”… although this one is a Conservative!

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-tory-local-election-candidate-suspended-hitler-jewish-b1280608.html

    But here’s another Green candidate: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g05pkqyxko
    And here’s a Reform candidate being racist: https://hopenothate.org.uk/2026/05/01/melt-them-all-down-and-fill-in-the-potholes-the-bizarre-racist-rant-from-sunderland-reform-candidate/

    Were our prospective politicians always like this and social media just lets us see it, or has social media encouraged more extreme views and language?
    I suspect a mix of both. Churchill would never have got away with his private remarks today, but there is a doom loop of reinforced behaviour as people see others who agree with them.
    And unlike edgy remarks in the golf club bar, social media posts are there to be discovered years later by powerful software looking not just at what you've tweeted but at what the posters you've re-tweeted have also tweeted even if you've never seen that.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,347
    ydoethur said:

    I actually think Starmer is lucky that opposition to him seems to be coalescing around Burnham, who is (a) not eligible and (b) not really a serious candidate.

    If it were Rayner, Cooper, or Streeting he would be in much more trouble.

    For this, ironically, he has Burnham to thank for his continual pot stirring...

    No-one wants the Heseltine role – the sword-wielder who never got to wear the crown.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,657

    Am I the only one who thinks Andy Burnham is a complete pillock?

    Being a pillock is almost a requirement for top political office. Question is whether Burnham offers anything else.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,871

    Am I the only one who thinks Andy Burnham is a complete pillock?

    No.

    The trouble is that in modern public life being a complete pillock is a competitive advantage, and very probably essential to survive.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,871

    ydoethur said:

    Another candidate suspended for antisemitism, saying “Hitler was right”… although this one is a Conservative!

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/london-tory-local-election-candidate-suspended-hitler-jewish-b1280608.html

    But here’s another Green candidate: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g05pkqyxko
    And here’s a Reform candidate being racist: https://hopenothate.org.uk/2026/05/01/melt-them-all-down-and-fill-in-the-potholes-the-bizarre-racist-rant-from-sunderland-reform-candidate/

    Were our prospective politicians always like this and social media just lets us see it, or has social media encouraged more extreme views and language?
    I suspect a mix of both. Churchill would never have got away with his private remarks today, but there is a doom loop of reinforced behaviour as people see others who agree with them.
    And unlike edgy remarks in the golf club bar, social media posts are there to be discovered years later by powerful software looking not just at what you've tweeted but at what the posters you've re-tweeted have also tweeted even if you've never seen that.
    It's the subtle toxicity of most social media.

    The closed bubble nature of most SM doesn't discourage over-edgy remarks enough. It's a brilliant machine to reward ever-more outrageous comments.

    That's not great, but then if those really bad comments escape into the wild, absolutely everyone finds out about them.

    Still, it's made some people very rich.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,953
    edited May 3
    Fishing said:

    theProle said:

    carnforth said:

    Preparations begin...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c794zd1vqn4o

    "Airlines can cancel flights in advance over fuel shortages, under new plans"

    It makes a lot of sense; if there are going to be serious shortages, frankly the last thing we should be doing with the available resources is burning it so people can go on their holibobs. Most air travel is moderately frivolous - things like power generation and food supply really aren't.
    There's lots of evidence that holidays make workers reduce stress, improve mental health and make workers significantly more productive. So travelling is far from frivolous.
    I wouldn't disagree with that, and I don't particularly want the idiots intending on jetting off to Magaluf holidaying here instead, but it's a hiracy of needs thing, and cheep weekends on the beach should come a lot further down the list than fuel for everyday life.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,136
    OT. From Hayek to Hegseth. The man's on the button......

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oipMZClCJ0
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,871
    edited May 3
    theProle said:

    Am I the only one who thinks Andy Burnham is a complete pillock?

    No. He comes across as an idiot.

    His current role is essentially just spending money, not raising taxes to pay for it. He seems to think he can do this at Westminster too, hence his "why do we care about the bond markets" comments. That's the last sort of PM we need.

    He’s sufficiently stupid he's iirc had 3(?) attempts to become leader of the Labour Party now, and he hasn't even figured out a way of coning the dunces there into letting him lead them.

    About the only talent he has appears to be to speak in a northern accent, unfortunately for him that's a talent shared with millions of other people, most of whom would probably make a better prime minister than he would.
    That's an issue that goes back decades, though- at least back to Maggie. Mayors and councils haven't been given much discretion over tax and spending, for fear that they would use it.

    Whatever the merits of that, it does create a cadre of politicians with an inherently childish attitude to money; if the only way you can fund a project is by nagging Whitehall, it's different to if you have to get the money via taxes with your name on them.

    It's a definite problem with the way Mayors have been set up. There was that bloke in London who bombed on the national stage, in part because he had never had to learn about tradeoffs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,875
    ydoethur said:

    I actually think Starmer is lucky that opposition to him seems to be coalescing around Burnham, who is (a) not eligible and (b) not really a serious candidate.

    If it were Rayner, Cooper, or Streeting he would be in much more trouble.

    For this, ironically, he has Burnham to thank for his continual pot stirring...

    Burnham polls far better with voters than Rayner, Cooper or Streeting, if he gets back to Parliament of course he would be a serious candidate
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,875

    ydoethur said:

    I actually think Starmer is lucky that opposition to him seems to be coalescing around Burnham, who is (a) not eligible and (b) not really a serious candidate.

    If it were Rayner, Cooper, or Streeting he would be in much more trouble.

    For this, ironically, he has Burnham to thank for his continual pot stirring...

    No-one wants the Heseltine role – the sword-wielder who never got to wear the crown.
    Starmer is hardly Thatcher though
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,035
    theProle said:

    Am I the only one who thinks Andy Burnham is a complete pillock?

    No. He comes across as an idiot.

    His current role is essentially just spending money, not raising taxes to pay for it. He seems to think he can do this at Westminster too, hence his "why do we care about the bond markets" comments. That's the last sort of PM we need.

    He’s sufficiently stupid he's iirc had 3(?) attempts to become leader of the Labour Party now, and he hasn't even figured out a way of coning the dunces there into letting him lead them.

    About the only talent he has appears to be to speak in a northern accent, unfortunately for him that's a talent shared with millions of other people, most of whom would probably make a better prime minister than he would.
    That’s not quite true. Manchester is also a private sector success story, it’s not purely a state funded enterprise.

    Multiple attempts at leadership shouldn’t be seen as a negative in my view. He’s had another 10 years of experience in politics since, that has to count for something.

    That said, he could still be a vacuous nothing. We’ll see
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,875
    New Ashcroft poll for the Mail has Reform on 21% just 1% ahead of the Tories and Greens on 20%. Labour trails on 18% with the LDs on 11%

    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15785523/Cabinet-rebels-unite-local-election-results-disaster.html
  • HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    I actually think Starmer is lucky that opposition to him seems to be coalescing around Burnham, who is (a) not eligible and (b) not really a serious candidate.

    If it were Rayner, Cooper, or Streeting he would be in much more trouble.

    For this, ironically, he has Burnham to thank for his continual pot stirring...

    Burnham polls far better with voters than Rayner, Cooper or Streeting, if he gets back to Parliament of course he would be a serious candidate
    But how could he win a by-election ? Where could he stand ? What would his platform be, "vote for me and I will be Prime Minister and ignore you my electors just like XXXX my predecessor has done. I bought him out, what is to say I won't be bought out too ?" If he DID win then he would be a much more formidable opponent for Kemi and Nigel than any of the others, but he won't win. What great gifts has he brought to Manchester ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,347
    edited May 3
    Rachel Reeves bombshell as Labour MPs plot to save her and stop shock replacement
    Worried Labour MPs fear if the Chancellor is shown the door it could spark chaos.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2201211/rachel-reeves-bombshell-labour-replace-her

    Thinly-veiled subtext is keep Keir Starmer in order to keep Ed Miliband away from the Treasury.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,705
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    I actually think Starmer is lucky that opposition to him seems to be coalescing around Burnham, who is (a) not eligible and (b) not really a serious candidate.

    If it were Rayner, Cooper, or Streeting he would be in much more trouble.

    For this, ironically, he has Burnham to thank for his continual pot stirring...

    No-one wants the Heseltine role – the sword-wielder who never got to wear the crown.
    Starmer is hardly Thatcher though
    He does share one fundamental with Thatcher after 22 months as PM - unpopularity.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,230

    Can't be true. Unless she is being used by one of the others to kick this off.
    ARGCLU FOR LEADER!
  • TresTres Posts: 3,654

    theProle said:

    Am I the only one who thinks Andy Burnham is a complete pillock?

    No. He comes across as an idiot.

    His current role is essentially just spending money, not raising taxes to pay for it. He seems to think he can do this at Westminster too, hence his "why do we care about the bond markets" comments. That's the last sort of PM we need.

    He’s sufficiently stupid he's iirc had 3(?) attempts to become leader of the Labour Party now, and he hasn't even figured out a way of coning the dunces there into letting him lead them.

    About the only talent he has appears to be to speak in a northern accent, unfortunately for him that's a talent shared with millions of other people, most of whom would probably make a better prime minister than he would.
    That’s not quite true. Manchester is also a private sector success story, it’s not purely a state funded enterprise.

    Multiple attempts at leadership shouldn’t be seen as a negative in my view. He’s had another 10 years of experience in politics since, that has to count for something.

    That said, he could still be a vacuous nothing. We’ll see
    It's interesting both Manchester and Birmingham city centres have improved immensely over last few decades, but the surrounding areas seem to have stagnated. Burnham gets the benefit for the Manchester improvements but how much is it riding off the coattails of the investment that was already in place?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,287
    edited May 3

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    I actually think Starmer is lucky that opposition to him seems to be coalescing around Burnham, who is (a) not eligible and (b) not really a serious candidate.

    If it were Rayner, Cooper, or Streeting he would be in much more trouble.

    For this, ironically, he has Burnham to thank for his continual pot stirring...

    Burnham polls far better with voters than Rayner, Cooper or Streeting, if he gets back to Parliament of course he would be a serious candidate
    But how could he win a by-election ? Where could he stand ? What would his platform be, "vote for me and I will be Prime Minister and ignore you my electors just like XXXX my predecessor has done. I bought him out, what is to say I won't be bought out too ?" If he DID win then he would be a much more formidable opponent for Kemi and Nigel than any of the others, but he won't win. What great gifts has he brought to Manchester ?
    If I were him I’d start attacking the current Labour hierarchy as a London-only club.

    That’s why they’ve not reformed energy pricing or council tax, they’ve not restarted HS2 to Manchester/Liverpool/Sheffield, they’ve not implemented the Bee Network in other cities, no new trams , little investment in buses, the A1 hasn’t been duelled. No levers to spread some economic demand around.

    Any northern seat would be interested in that kind of vibe. Some positivity + a grudge.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,035
    Tres said:

    theProle said:

    Am I the only one who thinks Andy Burnham is a complete pillock?

    No. He comes across as an idiot.

    His current role is essentially just spending money, not raising taxes to pay for it. He seems to think he can do this at Westminster too, hence his "why do we care about the bond markets" comments. That's the last sort of PM we need.

    He’s sufficiently stupid he's iirc had 3(?) attempts to become leader of the Labour Party now, and he hasn't even figured out a way of coning the dunces there into letting him lead them.

    About the only talent he has appears to be to speak in a northern accent, unfortunately for him that's a talent shared with millions of other people, most of whom would probably make a better prime minister than he would.
    That’s not quite true. Manchester is also a private sector success story, it’s not purely a state funded enterprise.

    Multiple attempts at leadership shouldn’t be seen as a negative in my view. He’s had another 10 years of experience in politics since, that has to count for something.

    That said, he could still be a vacuous nothing. We’ll see
    It's interesting both Manchester and Birmingham city centres have improved immensely over last few decades, but the surrounding areas seem to have stagnated. Burnham gets the benefit for the Manchester improvements but how much is it riding off the coattails of the investment that was already in place?
    Twas forever thus in politics?

    I don’t think the Manchester hinterland has stagnated? It has changed sure as it has become Manchester suburbs but in my experience the development extends far outside the city centre.

    Birmingham, although I am from Solihull, I have a lot less familiarity with over the past 15 years.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,901
    Nothing says happy family celebrations like an icing noose. I believe ASDA does the Pierrepoint special in their personalised birthday cake line.

    On his 50th birthday, the wife of Israel’s National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, presented him with a cake depicting a gallows.

    https://x.com/eyeonpalestine/status/2050703412719738906?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,430
    Today's Rawnsley:

    Before a single ballot has been counted, mordant wags are calling it “Starmerggedon”. While soul-shredding defeats in Scotland and Wales are already anticipated, I am not sure the same can be said about the dismal fate they face in London. A shellacking in London will have an outsized influence on the fate of the prime minister. A significant proportion of the party’s activists and members are London-based. Just about every Labour MP will be doing the maths to work out what an atrocious night on Thursday might mean for their own chances of surviving in the Commons.

    In Downing Street, the prime minister’s advisors are in the brace position and planning a “relaunch” to try to buy him more time. Sir Keir’s remaining allies will contend that they have suffered the “mid-term blues”, which often afflict governments. That won’t cut it. Labour is on course to be defeated in Scotland yet again, to lose Wales for the first time ever, and to shed about three quarters of the 2,500 or so council seats that the party is defending. All in all this could very well turn out to be Labour’s worst election performance in more than half a century. That can’t be shrugged off as merely “a slap in the face”. It will be blunt force trauma.

    Even loyalists don’t pretend to know what will happen next. “The ice could break,” admits one cabinet member. If Number 10 loses control of events, there will be ministerial resignations and calls for the prime minister to step down followed by a full-frontal challenge if he won’t budge. They already know that they are in for a catastrophic night. Only when they have experienced the pain will it become clear whether Sir Keir is going to be given one more chance or his party’s patience is so terminally exhausted that Labour MPs will roll the dice on replacing him.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,144

    Nothing says happy family celebrations like an icing noose. I believe ASDA does the Pierrepoint special in their personalised birthday cake line.

    On his 50th birthday, the wife of Israel’s National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, presented him with a cake depicting a gallows.

    https://x.com/eyeonpalestine/status/2050703412719738906?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q


    They’re the good guys, I’m regularly told.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,928
    IanB2 said:

    Today's Rawnsley:

    Before a single ballot has been counted, mordant wags are calling it “Starmerggedon”. While soul-shredding defeats in Scotland and Wales are already anticipated, I am not sure the same can be said about the dismal fate they face in London. A shellacking in London will have an outsized influence on the fate of the prime minister. A significant proportion of the party’s activists and members are London-based. Just about every Labour MP will be doing the maths to work out what an atrocious night on Thursday might mean for their own chances of surviving in the Commons.

    In Downing Street, the prime minister’s advisors are in the brace position and planning a “relaunch” to try to buy him more time. Sir Keir’s remaining allies will contend that they have suffered the “mid-term blues”, which often afflict governments. That won’t cut it. Labour is on course to be defeated in Scotland yet again, to lose Wales for the first time ever, and to shed about three quarters of the 2,500 or so council seats that the party is defending. All in all this could very well turn out to be Labour’s worst election performance in more than half a century. That can’t be shrugged off as merely “a slap in the face”. It will be blunt force trauma.

    Even loyalists don’t pretend to know what will happen next. “The ice could break,” admits one cabinet member. If Number 10 loses control of events, there will be ministerial resignations and calls for the prime minister to step down followed by a full-frontal challenge if he won’t budge. They already know that they are in for a catastrophic night. Only when they have experienced the pain will it become clear whether Sir Keir is going to be given one more chance or his party’s patience is so terminally exhausted that Labour MPs will roll the dice on replacing him.

    I don't rate Starmer but removing him may be a mistake. If a successor isn't clearly better, then it just looks like infighting, as afflicted the Conservatives at the end of their time in office with numerous short term PMs.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,144

    Tres said:

    theProle said:

    Am I the only one who thinks Andy Burnham is a complete pillock?

    No. He comes across as an idiot.

    His current role is essentially just spending money, not raising taxes to pay for it. He seems to think he can do this at Westminster too, hence his "why do we care about the bond markets" comments. That's the last sort of PM we need.

    He’s sufficiently stupid he's iirc had 3(?) attempts to become leader of the Labour Party now, and he hasn't even figured out a way of coning the dunces there into letting him lead them.

    About the only talent he has appears to be to speak in a northern accent, unfortunately for him that's a talent shared with millions of other people, most of whom would probably make a better prime minister than he would.
    That’s not quite true. Manchester is also a private sector success story, it’s not purely a state funded enterprise.

    Multiple attempts at leadership shouldn’t be seen as a negative in my view. He’s had another 10 years of experience in politics since, that has to count for something.

    That said, he could still be a vacuous nothing. We’ll see
    It's interesting both Manchester and Birmingham city centres have improved immensely over last few decades, but the surrounding areas seem to have stagnated. Burnham gets the benefit for the Manchester improvements but how much is it riding off the coattails of the investment that was already in place?
    Twas forever thus in politics?

    I don’t think the Manchester hinterland has stagnated? It has changed sure as it has become Manchester suburbs but in my experience the development extends far outside the city centre.

    Birmingham, although I am from Solihull, I have a lot less familiarity with over the past 15 years.
    Well Digbeth and round there, out from the city centre, is really thriving and has been developed. A big improvement from the eighties and nineties.

    The developments coming with the new Sports Quarter from Blues will also improve the area around Stab City.

    There are developments in the Brummie Hinterland definitely.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,871

    IanB2 said:

    Today's Rawnsley:

    Before a single ballot has been counted, mordant wags are calling it “Starmerggedon”. While soul-shredding defeats in Scotland and Wales are already anticipated, I am not sure the same can be said about the dismal fate they face in London. A shellacking in London will have an outsized influence on the fate of the prime minister. A significant proportion of the party’s activists and members are London-based. Just about every Labour MP will be doing the maths to work out what an atrocious night on Thursday might mean for their own chances of surviving in the Commons.

    In Downing Street, the prime minister’s advisors are in the brace position and planning a “relaunch” to try to buy him more time. Sir Keir’s remaining allies will contend that they have suffered the “mid-term blues”, which often afflict governments. That won’t cut it. Labour is on course to be defeated in Scotland yet again, to lose Wales for the first time ever, and to shed about three quarters of the 2,500 or so council seats that the party is defending. All in all this could very well turn out to be Labour’s worst election performance in more than half a century. That can’t be shrugged off as merely “a slap in the face”. It will be blunt force trauma.

    Even loyalists don’t pretend to know what will happen next. “The ice could break,” admits one cabinet member. If Number 10 loses control of events, there will be ministerial resignations and calls for the prime minister to step down followed by a full-frontal challenge if he won’t budge. They already know that they are in for a catastrophic night. Only when they have experienced the pain will it become clear whether Sir Keir is going to be given one more chance or his party’s patience is so terminally exhausted that Labour MPs will roll the dice on replacing him.

    I don't rate Starmer but removing him may be a mistake. If a successor isn't clearly better, then it just looks like infighting, as afflicted the Conservatives at the end of their time in office with numerous short term PMs.
    In terms of timeframe, it's the equivalent of ditching Maggie in 1981.

    So why is it we have a generation of politicians and commentators who have febrile infighting as their main skill?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,651

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: “I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2050709101781639456

    A pretty feeble effort at rationalising the quagmire.

    The rest of the world is paying the price of Trump's idiocy.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,928

    IanB2 said:

    Today's Rawnsley:

    Before a single ballot has been counted, mordant wags are calling it “Starmerggedon”. While soul-shredding defeats in Scotland and Wales are already anticipated, I am not sure the same can be said about the dismal fate they face in London. A shellacking in London will have an outsized influence on the fate of the prime minister. A significant proportion of the party’s activists and members are London-based. Just about every Labour MP will be doing the maths to work out what an atrocious night on Thursday might mean for their own chances of surviving in the Commons.

    In Downing Street, the prime minister’s advisors are in the brace position and planning a “relaunch” to try to buy him more time. Sir Keir’s remaining allies will contend that they have suffered the “mid-term blues”, which often afflict governments. That won’t cut it. Labour is on course to be defeated in Scotland yet again, to lose Wales for the first time ever, and to shed about three quarters of the 2,500 or so council seats that the party is defending. All in all this could very well turn out to be Labour’s worst election performance in more than half a century. That can’t be shrugged off as merely “a slap in the face”. It will be blunt force trauma.

    Even loyalists don’t pretend to know what will happen next. “The ice could break,” admits one cabinet member. If Number 10 loses control of events, there will be ministerial resignations and calls for the prime minister to step down followed by a full-frontal challenge if he won’t budge. They already know that they are in for a catastrophic night. Only when they have experienced the pain will it become clear whether Sir Keir is going to be given one more chance or his party’s patience is so terminally exhausted that Labour MPs will roll the dice on replacing him.

    I don't rate Starmer but removing him may be a mistake. If a successor isn't clearly better, then it just looks like infighting, as afflicted the Conservatives at the end of their time in office with numerous short term PMs.
    In terms of timeframe, it's the equivalent of ditching Maggie in 1981.

    So why is it we have a generation of politicians and commentators who have febrile infighting as their main skill?
    Not a positive sign for political institutions.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,542

    IanB2 said:

    Today's Rawnsley:

    Before a single ballot has been counted, mordant wags are calling it “Starmerggedon”. While soul-shredding defeats in Scotland and Wales are already anticipated, I am not sure the same can be said about the dismal fate they face in London. A shellacking in London will have an outsized influence on the fate of the prime minister. A significant proportion of the party’s activists and members are London-based. Just about every Labour MP will be doing the maths to work out what an atrocious night on Thursday might mean for their own chances of surviving in the Commons.

    In Downing Street, the prime minister’s advisors are in the brace position and planning a “relaunch” to try to buy him more time. Sir Keir’s remaining allies will contend that they have suffered the “mid-term blues”, which often afflict governments. That won’t cut it. Labour is on course to be defeated in Scotland yet again, to lose Wales for the first time ever, and to shed about three quarters of the 2,500 or so council seats that the party is defending. All in all this could very well turn out to be Labour’s worst election performance in more than half a century. That can’t be shrugged off as merely “a slap in the face”. It will be blunt force trauma.

    Even loyalists don’t pretend to know what will happen next. “The ice could break,” admits one cabinet member. If Number 10 loses control of events, there will be ministerial resignations and calls for the prime minister to step down followed by a full-frontal challenge if he won’t budge. They already know that they are in for a catastrophic night. Only when they have experienced the pain will it become clear whether Sir Keir is going to be given one more chance or his party’s patience is so terminally exhausted that Labour MPs will roll the dice on replacing him.

    I don't rate Starmer but removing him may be a mistake. If a successor isn't clearly better, then it just looks like infighting, as afflicted the Conservatives at the end of their time in office with numerous short term PMs.
    In terms of timeframe, it's the equivalent of ditching Maggie in 1981.

    So why is it we have a generation of politicians and commentators who have febrile infighting as their main skill?
    Evolutionary spiral - those who are 100% about getting to the top do better in getting to the top than those who waste 10% on policy.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,255

    IanB2 said:

    Today's Rawnsley:

    Before a single ballot has been counted, mordant wags are calling it “Starmerggedon”. While soul-shredding defeats in Scotland and Wales are already anticipated, I am not sure the same can be said about the dismal fate they face in London. A shellacking in London will have an outsized influence on the fate of the prime minister. A significant proportion of the party’s activists and members are London-based. Just about every Labour MP will be doing the maths to work out what an atrocious night on Thursday might mean for their own chances of surviving in the Commons.

    In Downing Street, the prime minister’s advisors are in the brace position and planning a “relaunch” to try to buy him more time. Sir Keir’s remaining allies will contend that they have suffered the “mid-term blues”, which often afflict governments. That won’t cut it. Labour is on course to be defeated in Scotland yet again, to lose Wales for the first time ever, and to shed about three quarters of the 2,500 or so council seats that the party is defending. All in all this could very well turn out to be Labour’s worst election performance in more than half a century. That can’t be shrugged off as merely “a slap in the face”. It will be blunt force trauma.

    Even loyalists don’t pretend to know what will happen next. “The ice could break,” admits one cabinet member. If Number 10 loses control of events, there will be ministerial resignations and calls for the prime minister to step down followed by a full-frontal challenge if he won’t budge. They already know that they are in for a catastrophic night. Only when they have experienced the pain will it become clear whether Sir Keir is going to be given one more chance or his party’s patience is so terminally exhausted that Labour MPs will roll the dice on replacing him.

    I don't rate Starmer but removing him may be a mistake. If a successor isn't clearly better, then it just looks like infighting, as afflicted the Conservatives at the end of their time in office with numerous short term PMs.
    In terms of timeframe, it's the equivalent of ditching Maggie in 1981.

    So why is it we have a generation of politicians and commentators who have febrile infighting as their main skill?
    Because the stakes are so low. No longer part of the European project and flotsam to the whims of the US. All they can do is smile and take the money.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,651

    theProle said:

    Am I the only one who thinks Andy Burnham is a complete pillock?

    No. He comes across as an idiot.

    His current role is essentially just spending money, not raising taxes to pay for it. He seems to think he can do this at Westminster too, hence his "why do we care about the bond markets" comments. That's the last sort of PM we need.

    He’s sufficiently stupid he's iirc had 3(?) attempts to become leader of the Labour Party now, and he hasn't even figured out a way of coning the dunces there into letting him lead them.

    About the only talent he has appears to be to speak in a northern accent, unfortunately for him that's a talent shared with millions of other people, most of whom would probably make a better prime minister than he would.
    That’s not quite true. Manchester is also a private sector success story, it’s not purely a state funded enterprise.

    Multiple attempts at leadership shouldn’t be seen as a negative in my view. He’s had another 10 years of experience in politics since, that has to count for something.

    That said, he could still be a vacuous nothing. We’ll see
    Burnham considerably improved his reputation as mayor. So far, this campaign is dragging it back down again.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,133
    It’s not the equivalent of ditching Thatcher in 81.

    Starmer has nothing he is trying to do.

    We need somebody with an idea or two who can sell it. Labour still has plenty of time to win the next election but not with Sir Keir at the helm.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,961
    Who'd have thunk that keeping a loser like Starner might be the least worst solution.
    How low can the Country sink.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,928

    IanB2 said:

    Today's Rawnsley:

    Before a single ballot has been counted, mordant wags are calling it “Starmerggedon”. While soul-shredding defeats in Scotland and Wales are already anticipated, I am not sure the same can be said about the dismal fate they face in London. A shellacking in London will have an outsized influence on the fate of the prime minister. A significant proportion of the party’s activists and members are London-based. Just about every Labour MP will be doing the maths to work out what an atrocious night on Thursday might mean for their own chances of surviving in the Commons.

    In Downing Street, the prime minister’s advisors are in the brace position and planning a “relaunch” to try to buy him more time. Sir Keir’s remaining allies will contend that they have suffered the “mid-term blues”, which often afflict governments. That won’t cut it. Labour is on course to be defeated in Scotland yet again, to lose Wales for the first time ever, and to shed about three quarters of the 2,500 or so council seats that the party is defending. All in all this could very well turn out to be Labour’s worst election performance in more than half a century. That can’t be shrugged off as merely “a slap in the face”. It will be blunt force trauma.

    Even loyalists don’t pretend to know what will happen next. “The ice could break,” admits one cabinet member. If Number 10 loses control of events, there will be ministerial resignations and calls for the prime minister to step down followed by a full-frontal challenge if he won’t budge. They already know that they are in for a catastrophic night. Only when they have experienced the pain will it become clear whether Sir Keir is going to be given one more chance or his party’s patience is so terminally exhausted that Labour MPs will roll the dice on replacing him.

    I don't rate Starmer but removing him may be a mistake. If a successor isn't clearly better, then it just looks like infighting, as afflicted the Conservatives at the end of their time in office with numerous short term PMs.
    In terms of timeframe, it's the equivalent of ditching Maggie in 1981.

    So why is it we have a generation of politicians and commentators who have febrile infighting as their main skill?
    Evolutionary spiral - those who are 100% about getting to the top do better in getting to the top than those who waste 10% on policy.
    Also worth noting the downside of democracy is that campaigning for electoral success and governing a nation well are different skills. Likewise, winning an internal party battle to usurp the leadership is not the same thing as having a sound understanding of long term economic needs of the nation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    Who'd have thunk that keeping a loser like Starner might be the least worst solution.
    How low can the Country sink.

    There is no bottom to how far somewhere can sink, that's why it takes so much effort to avoid.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,651

    IanB2 said:

    Today's Rawnsley:

    Before a single ballot has been counted, mordant wags are calling it “Starmerggedon”. While soul-shredding defeats in Scotland and Wales are already anticipated, I am not sure the same can be said about the dismal fate they face in London. A shellacking in London will have an outsized influence on the fate of the prime minister. A significant proportion of the party’s activists and members are London-based. Just about every Labour MP will be doing the maths to work out what an atrocious night on Thursday might mean for their own chances of surviving in the Commons.

    In Downing Street, the prime minister’s advisors are in the brace position and planning a “relaunch” to try to buy him more time. Sir Keir’s remaining allies will contend that they have suffered the “mid-term blues”, which often afflict governments. That won’t cut it. Labour is on course to be defeated in Scotland yet again, to lose Wales for the first time ever, and to shed about three quarters of the 2,500 or so council seats that the party is defending. All in all this could very well turn out to be Labour’s worst election performance in more than half a century. That can’t be shrugged off as merely “a slap in the face”. It will be blunt force trauma.

    Even loyalists don’t pretend to know what will happen next. “The ice could break,” admits one cabinet member. If Number 10 loses control of events, there will be ministerial resignations and calls for the prime minister to step down followed by a full-frontal challenge if he won’t budge. They already know that they are in for a catastrophic night. Only when they have experienced the pain will it become clear whether Sir Keir is going to be given one more chance or his party’s patience is so terminally exhausted that Labour MPs will roll the dice on replacing him.

    I don't rate Starmer but removing him may be a mistake. If a successor isn't clearly better, then it just looks like infighting, as afflicted the Conservatives at the end of their time in office with numerous short term PMs.
    In terms of timeframe, it's the equivalent of ditching Maggie in 1981.

    So why is it we have a generation of politicians and commentators who have febrile infighting as their main skill?
    Evolutionary spiral - those who are 100% about getting to the top do better in getting to the top than those who waste 10% on policy.
    Also worth noting the downside of democracy is that campaigning for electoral success and governing a nation well are different skills. Likewise, winning an internal party battle to usurp the leadership is not the same thing as having a sound understanding of long term economic needs of the nation.
    Isn't that true of any form of government ?

    It's not as though Lenin, Stalin or Mao were spectacular successes in government.
    Unless you're rating them by mass deaths.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,809

    IanB2 said:

    Today's Rawnsley:

    Before a single ballot has been counted, mordant wags are calling it “Starmerggedon”. While soul-shredding defeats in Scotland and Wales are already anticipated, I am not sure the same can be said about the dismal fate they face in London. A shellacking in London will have an outsized influence on the fate of the prime minister. A significant proportion of the party’s activists and members are London-based. Just about every Labour MP will be doing the maths to work out what an atrocious night on Thursday might mean for their own chances of surviving in the Commons.

    In Downing Street, the prime minister’s advisors are in the brace position and planning a “relaunch” to try to buy him more time. Sir Keir’s remaining allies will contend that they have suffered the “mid-term blues”, which often afflict governments. That won’t cut it. Labour is on course to be defeated in Scotland yet again, to lose Wales for the first time ever, and to shed about three quarters of the 2,500 or so council seats that the party is defending. All in all this could very well turn out to be Labour’s worst election performance in more than half a century. That can’t be shrugged off as merely “a slap in the face”. It will be blunt force trauma.

    Even loyalists don’t pretend to know what will happen next. “The ice could break,” admits one cabinet member. If Number 10 loses control of events, there will be ministerial resignations and calls for the prime minister to step down followed by a full-frontal challenge if he won’t budge. They already know that they are in for a catastrophic night. Only when they have experienced the pain will it become clear whether Sir Keir is going to be given one more chance or his party’s patience is so terminally exhausted that Labour MPs will roll the dice on replacing him.

    I don't rate Starmer but removing him may be a mistake. If a successor isn't clearly better, then it just looks like infighting, as afflicted the Conservatives at the end of their time in office with numerous short term PMs.
    In terms of timeframe, it's the equivalent of ditching Maggie in 1981.

    So why is it we have a generation of politicians and commentators who have febrile infighting as their main skill?
    Evolutionary spiral - those who are 100% about getting to the top do better in getting to the top than those who waste 10% on policy.
    Also worth noting the downside of democracy is that campaigning for electoral success and governing a nation well are different skills. Likewise, winning an internal party battle to usurp the leadership is not the same thing as having a sound understanding of long term economic needs of the nation.
    Yes, we try to use certain indicators to predict if someone (or some party) will provide great competence or more effective vision, but it's still mostly a crapshoot, and unforeseen events and public capriciousness leading to inevitable uncertainty for the politicians only make it even worse.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,953
    Nigelb said:

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: “I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2050709101781639456

    A pretty feeble effort at rationalising the quagmire.

    The rest of the world is paying the price of Trump's idiocy.
    But some woke stuff, like windmills, have been stopped, so it’s all OK… is, I understand, the line to be taken.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,780

    Nigelb said:

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: “I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2050709101781639456

    A pretty feeble effort at rationalising the quagmire.

    The rest of the world is paying the price of Trump's idiocy.
    But some woke stuff, like windmills, have been stopped, so it’s all OK… is, I understand, the line to be taken.
    "RADICAL LEFT LUNATIC WINDMILLS! Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,953
    Farage exaggerated security risks when trying to justify hiding £5 million donation: https://observer.co.uk/news/politics/article/questions-raised-about-security-risk-to-farage-in-row-over-5m-gift-from-crypto-tycoon
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,780

    Nothing says happy family celebrations like an icing noose. I believe ASDA does the Pierrepoint special in their personalised birthday cake line.

    On his 50th birthday, the wife of Israel’s National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, presented him with a cake depicting a gallows.

    https://x.com/eyeonpalestine/status/2050703412719738906?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q



    Jenny Stephenson
    @JennyS53968
    ·
    4h
    The anti-semitic backlash we're seeing is horrendous. But when we see things like this, we better understand where its coming from. Too many people aren't distinguishing between judaism, and this toxic extreme zionism. Leaders must draw the distinction and condemn the latter.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,143
    Taz said:

    Nothing says happy family celebrations like an icing noose. I believe ASDA does the Pierrepoint special in their personalised birthday cake line.

    On his 50th birthday, the wife of Israel’s National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, presented him with a cake depicting a gallows.

    https://x.com/eyeonpalestine/status/2050703412719738906?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q


    They’re the good guys, I’m regularly told.
    When people show you who they are, believe them
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,705

    Who'd have thunk that keeping a loser like Starner might be the least worst solution.
    How low can the Country sink.

    It's harsh, I know, but Labour general election wins do tend to result in Labour Prime Ministers.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,429

    Nigelb said:

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: “I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2050709101781639456

    A pretty feeble effort at rationalising the quagmire.

    The rest of the world is paying the price of Trump's idiocy.
    But some woke stuff, like windmills, have been stopped, so it’s all OK… is, I understand, the line to be taken.
    "RADICAL LEFT LUNATIC WINDMILLS! Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
    Good morning everyone. Very pleasant here; lots of sun and white(ish) clouds.

    Can anyone explain why Trump always ends his posts with "Thank you for your attention to this matter!"? He is, after all, no matter how much we may regret it, POTUS so anyone with more than a very passing interest in current affairs is bound to take an interest in his ravings.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,305
    edited May 3
    IanB2 said:

    Today's Rawnsley:

    Before a single ballot has been counted, mordant wags are calling it “Starmerggedon”. While soul-shredding defeats in Scotland and Wales are already anticipated, I am not sure the same can be said about the dismal fate they face in London. A shellacking in London will have an outsized influence on the fate of the prime minister. A significant proportion of the party’s activists and members are London-based. Just about every Labour MP will be doing the maths to work out what an atrocious night on Thursday might mean for their own chances of surviving in the Commons.

    In Downing Street, the prime minister’s advisors are in the brace position and planning a “relaunch” to try to buy him more time. Sir Keir’s remaining allies will contend that they have suffered the “mid-term blues”, which often afflict governments. That won’t cut it. Labour is on course to be defeated in Scotland yet again, to lose Wales for the first time ever, and to shed about three quarters of the 2,500 or so council seats that the party is defending. All in all this could very well turn out to be Labour’s worst election performance in more than half a century. That can’t be shrugged off as merely “a slap in the face”. It will be blunt force trauma.

    Even loyalists don’t pretend to know what will happen next. “The ice could break,” admits one cabinet member. If Number 10 loses control of events, there will be ministerial resignations and calls for the prime minister to step down followed by a full-frontal challenge if he won’t budge. They already know that they are in for a catastrophic night. Only when they have experienced the pain will it become clear whether Sir Keir is going to be given one more chance or his party’s patience is so terminally exhausted that Labour MPs will roll the dice on replacing him.

    As I've mentioned, I think what could really panic Labour is a total wipe out of councillors in one or more places they currently control in the metros.

    This could be in a by-thirds, for instance, losing control of Tameside or Wigan by winning no seats on this round, or it could be a total wipe out in an all-up election.

    I'd been of the mind that somewhere like Sunderland, a Labour councillor could sneak a second or third place in the odd ward.

    However, I had a quick tot up of how the regular London all ups panned out in 2022 and now I'm not so sure - only just over 10% of the total seats split between different parties. Now, I'm expecting with the polling as it stands now that to be a little higher, both in London and elsewhere, but that is still a lot of wards that will return 3 Reform councillors.

    If Labour are eliminated totally from even a handful of metros, that will be potentially the most seismic event. It's possible, but not that likely, that a Labour London stronghold could feature in that list.

  • PJHPJH Posts: 1,140

    Am I the only one who thinks Andy Burnham is a complete pillock?

    No.

    I don't get what the fuss is about. He was a poor minister, is another overblown self-promoter and has repeatedly shown a lack of judgment. And comes across as smarmy.

    He would be much worse than Starmer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,651

    Nigelb said:

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: “I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2050709101781639456

    A pretty feeble effort at rationalising the quagmire.

    The rest of the world is paying the price of Trump's idiocy.
    But some woke stuff, like windmills, have been stopped, so it’s all OK… is, I understand, the line to be taken.
    "RADICAL LEFT LUNATIC WINDMILLS! Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
    Good morning everyone. Very pleasant here; lots of sun and white(ish) clouds.

    Can anyone explain why Trump always ends his posts with "Thank you for your attention to this matter!"? He is, after all, no matter how much we may regret it, POTUS so anyone with more than a very passing interest in current affairs is bound to take an interest in his ravings.
    Because he is a world class troll.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,871
    kinabalu said:

    Who'd have thunk that keeping a loser like Starner might be the least worst solution.
    How low can the Country sink.

    It's harsh, I know, but Labour general election wins do tend to result in Labour Prime Ministers.
    Though it's not particularly a partisan point.

    Badenoch, Davey, Farage and Polanski are different kinds of dreadful.

    Maybe 2024's Sunak v Starmer is as good as it got.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    File under: lol

    “ Kortazar, a far-left Spanish activist, did what good comrades do, she opened her home to a North African migrant.

    Once he got what he wanted, the man started sexually harassing her, insulting her, and beating her. Then he threw her out, changed the locks, and took over the house.

    She called the police for help. Their response? “We can’t do anything without a court order.”

    Now she’s sleeping at relatives’ houses, seeing a psychologist after a nervous breakdown, and has launched a petition to fast-track the legal process and get her home back.”

    https://x.com/sap011/status/2050629603039891854?s=46
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,133
    As a strong former Starmer supporter the game is up.

    He cannot make a comeback. I personally don’t understand the visceral hatred he gets but that’s the reality. The public have decided and they don’t want him.

    We need somebody new to take us to 2029. By default it must be Burnham but Streeting would also do.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,429
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: “I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2050709101781639456

    A pretty feeble effort at rationalising the quagmire.

    The rest of the world is paying the price of Trump's idiocy.
    But some woke stuff, like windmills, have been stopped, so it’s all OK… is, I understand, the line to be taken.
    "RADICAL LEFT LUNATIC WINDMILLS! Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
    Good morning everyone. Very pleasant here; lots of sun and white(ish) clouds.

    Can anyone explain why Trump always ends his posts with "Thank you for your attention to this matter!"? He is, after all, no matter how much we may regret it, POTUS so anyone with more than a very passing interest in current affairs is bound to take an interest in his ravings.
    Because he is a world class troll.
    Well, he's certainly a world class unpleasant of some sort.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,144
    Leon said:

    File under: lol

    “ Kortazar, a far-left Spanish activist, did what good comrades do, she opened her home to a North African migrant.

    Once he got what he wanted, the man started sexually harassing her, insulting her, and beating her. Then he threw her out, changed the locks, and took over the house.

    She called the police for help. Their response? “We can’t do anything without a court order.”

    Now she’s sleeping at relatives’ houses, seeing a psychologist after a nervous breakdown, and has launched a petition to fast-track the legal process and get her home back.”

    https://x.com/sap011/status/2050629603039891854?s=46

    No good deed goes unpunished. Stupid twat.

    Still, could have been worse.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c39r0pm2dm4o

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9d6x9jnp72o
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,651
    NEWSOM: Fox News needs to keep paying the price until they change the way they do business. I just wanted a simple apology. Own up to your lies. They refused. They thought they would get this thrown out. And this judge said hold on boys and girls — lets get ready for discovery.
    https://x.com/NewsomNews/status/2050655515005607958
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,144

    kinabalu said:

    Who'd have thunk that keeping a loser like Starner might be the least worst solution.
    How low can the Country sink.

    It's harsh, I know, but Labour general election wins do tend to result in Labour Prime Ministers.
    Though it's not particularly a partisan point.

    Badenoch, Davey, Farage and Polanski are different kinds of dreadful.

    Maybe 2024's Sunak v Starmer is as good as it got.
    As much as I don’t rate Starmer I do think he’s the best of a very poor bunch.

    Reeves seems to be more important than Starmer. Especially to the bond markets.

    We live in challenging times and our politicians are poor.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,144
    Nigelb said:

    NEWSOM: Fox News needs to keep paying the price until they change the way they do business. I just wanted a simple apology. Own up to your lies. They refused. They thought they would get this thrown out. And this judge said hold on boys and girls — lets get ready for discovery.
    https://x.com/NewsomNews/status/2050655515005607958

    FAFO time !!!!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,953

    As a strong former Starmer supporter the game is up.

    He cannot make a comeback. I personally don’t understand the visceral hatred he gets but that’s the reality. The public have decided and they don’t want him.

    We need somebody new to take us to 2029. By default it must be Burnham but Streeting would also do.

    “By default” seems an odd way to describe Burnham, someone not even currently eligible for the role. There are 402 other Labour MPs who seem more “by default” than Burnham.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,133

    As a strong former Starmer supporter the game is up.

    He cannot make a comeback. I personally don’t understand the visceral hatred he gets but that’s the reality. The public have decided and they don’t want him.

    We need somebody new to take us to 2029. By default it must be Burnham but Streeting would also do.

    “By default” seems an odd way to describe Burnham, someone not even currently eligible for the role. There are 402 other Labour MPs who seem more “by default” than Burnham.
    If the MPs decide they want Burnham they’ll wait around until he’s in Parliament. I can’t see why this isn’t the default scenario.
  • Big_IanBig_Ian Posts: 92

    As a strong former Starmer supporter the game is up.

    He cannot make a comeback. I personally don’t understand the visceral hatred he gets but that’s the reality. The public have decided and they don’t want him.

    We need somebody new to take us to 2029. By default it must be Burnham but Streeting would also do.

    “By default” seems an odd way to describe Burnham, someone not even currently eligible for the role. There are 402 other Labour MPs who seem more “by default” than Burnham.
    You'd think with a potential talent pool that big, you might be able to find some talent in there somewhere.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,705

    Nothing says happy family celebrations like an icing noose. I believe ASDA does the Pierrepoint special in their personalised birthday cake line.

    On his 50th birthday, the wife of Israel’s National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, presented him with a cake depicting a gallows.

    https://x.com/eyeonpalestine/status/2050703412719738906?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q


    Jenny Stephenson
    @JennyS53968
    ·
    4h
    The anti-semitic backlash we're seeing is horrendous. But when we see things like this, we better understand where its coming from. Too many people aren't distinguishing between judaism, and this toxic extreme zionism. Leaders must draw the distinction and condemn the latter.
    We also need to see greater nuance in signs and chants at demos. It's not rocket science.

    "Free free Palestine! But not necessarily from the river to the sea and definitely not by globalising the intifada"

    "Death to Zionism! By which we mean the oppression of Palestinians in pursuit of a Greater Israel, not Jewish people in general"

    "No to Jew hatred! But yes to death to Zionism as now properly defined above"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,578

    NEW THREAD

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,928
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Today's Rawnsley:

    Before a single ballot has been counted, mordant wags are calling it “Starmerggedon”. While soul-shredding defeats in Scotland and Wales are already anticipated, I am not sure the same can be said about the dismal fate they face in London. A shellacking in London will have an outsized influence on the fate of the prime minister. A significant proportion of the party’s activists and members are London-based. Just about every Labour MP will be doing the maths to work out what an atrocious night on Thursday might mean for their own chances of surviving in the Commons.

    In Downing Street, the prime minister’s advisors are in the brace position and planning a “relaunch” to try to buy him more time. Sir Keir’s remaining allies will contend that they have suffered the “mid-term blues”, which often afflict governments. That won’t cut it. Labour is on course to be defeated in Scotland yet again, to lose Wales for the first time ever, and to shed about three quarters of the 2,500 or so council seats that the party is defending. All in all this could very well turn out to be Labour’s worst election performance in more than half a century. That can’t be shrugged off as merely “a slap in the face”. It will be blunt force trauma.

    Even loyalists don’t pretend to know what will happen next. “The ice could break,” admits one cabinet member. If Number 10 loses control of events, there will be ministerial resignations and calls for the prime minister to step down followed by a full-frontal challenge if he won’t budge. They already know that they are in for a catastrophic night. Only when they have experienced the pain will it become clear whether Sir Keir is going to be given one more chance or his party’s patience is so terminally exhausted that Labour MPs will roll the dice on replacing him.

    I don't rate Starmer but removing him may be a mistake. If a successor isn't clearly better, then it just looks like infighting, as afflicted the Conservatives at the end of their time in office with numerous short term PMs.
    In terms of timeframe, it's the equivalent of ditching Maggie in 1981.

    So why is it we have a generation of politicians and commentators who have febrile infighting as their main skill?
    Evolutionary spiral - those who are 100% about getting to the top do better in getting to the top than those who waste 10% on policy.
    Also worth noting the downside of democracy is that campaigning for electoral success and governing a nation well are different skills. Likewise, winning an internal party battle to usurp the leadership is not the same thing as having a sound understanding of long term economic needs of the nation.
    Isn't that true of any form of government ?

    It's not as though Lenin, Stalin or Mao were spectacular successes in government.
    Unless you're rating them by mass deaths.
    That's true, and the great upside of democracy is that rulers can be thrown out peacefully.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,467
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    I have overdosed on the oysters today.

    Pro tip, don't eat oysters at lunchtime as it ruins the rest of your day when you've got a full itinerary scheduled.

    We need details!

    Maldon rocks? Helford natives? Breton bivalves? Carlingford? Farne? Whitstable? Jersey? How many?

    Also: mignonette? Lemon? Tabasco? Rockefeller?

    I'm serious. I am - clearly - an oyster obsessive. The 18 Carlingfords I had in Carlingford by Carlingford Lough, last week, was one of the most memorable meals of the year
    Unlike Boris Johnson, who is all mussels.
    Does Bart still have his mancrush I wonder
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,953
    Big_Ian said:

    As a strong former Starmer supporter the game is up.

    He cannot make a comeback. I personally don’t understand the visceral hatred he gets but that’s the reality. The public have decided and they don’t want him.

    We need somebody new to take us to 2029. By default it must be Burnham but Streeting would also do.

    “By default” seems an odd way to describe Burnham, someone not even currently eligible for the role. There are 402 other Labour MPs who seem more “by default” than Burnham.
    You'd think with a potential talent pool that big, you might be able to find some talent in there somewhere.
    I don’t support Labour, but I think there’s some talented people on the Labour benches. Labour people seem to rate the likes of Sarah Sackman, Deirdre Costigan, Heidi Alexander, Hilary Benn, Chris Curtis, Helena Dollimore etc.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,429
    Big_Ian said:

    As a strong former Starmer supporter the game is up.

    He cannot make a comeback. I personally don’t understand the visceral hatred he gets but that’s the reality. The public have decided and they don’t want him.

    We need somebody new to take us to 2029. By default it must be Burnham but Streeting would also do.

    “By default” seems an odd way to describe Burnham, someone not even currently eligible for the role. There are 402 other Labour MPs who seem more “by default” than Burnham.
    You'd think with a potential talent pool that big, you might be able to find some talent in there somewhere.
    Yes; I can't understand the enthusiasm for Burnham, unless it's because he's been, over the past few years, an efficient election winner and Mayor of a large city. Yes he seems to have done a good job in Manchester and that's a recommendation but I don't recall him as a particularly outstanding Sec of State for Health, unless one compares him with his successor, Lansley, who was a wrecker.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,230
    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Who'd have thunk that keeping a loser like Starner might be the least worst solution.
    How low can the Country sink.

    It's harsh, I know, but Labour general election wins do tend to result in Labour Prime Ministers.
    Though it's not particularly a partisan point.

    Badenoch, Davey, Farage and Polanski are different kinds of dreadful.

    Maybe 2024's Sunak v Starmer is as good as it got.
    As much as I don’t rate Starmer I do think he’s the best of a very poor bunch.

    Reeves seems to be more important than Starmer. Especially to the bond markets.

    We live in challenging times and our politicians are poor.
    Absurd. Badenoch, Farage, and Davy are all better than Starmer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,143
    edited May 3
    Off topic:

    Interesting story here on Bluey revenue:

    https://www.kidsnews.com.au/explainers/why-blueys-big-bucks-are-going-overseas-instead-of-staying-in-oz/news-story/494909103a5528e1008f5e9a0feef6f4

    Unusually the BBC seems to have made out like a bandit on this one with huge revenues at the expense of ABC
    Apparently it is the most streamed show in the US of any genre !
    Should have been able to freeze the license fee of the back of this tbh
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,705

    kinabalu said:

    Who'd have thunk that keeping a loser like Starner might be the least worst solution.
    How low can the Country sink.

    It's harsh, I know, but Labour general election wins do tend to result in Labour Prime Ministers.
    Though it's not particularly a partisan point.

    Badenoch, Davey, Farage and Polanski are different kinds of dreadful.

    Maybe 2024's Sunak v Starmer is as good as it got.
    It seems that many people who have spent the best part of two years calling Keir Starmer an absolute disaster and the worst PM in history are somewhat perturbed at the prospect of his departure.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,450
    ydoethur said:

    Gaussian said:

    DavidL said:

    It's a story in the Telegraph so hmm. But if Starmer really has lost control of the NEC he is finished.

    I have a reasonably well connected source at the top of the Labour Party and they've described this story as 'absolute fucking bollocks'.

    Burnham pushed a story in The Guardian last night and now he is doing the same with The Sunday Telegraph.
    So this source for the Telegraph story, is it Bandy Urnham by any chance?

    (The paradox is that this arguably shores up Starmer over the short term. After all, why start a leadership contest now if a much better candidate is going to be heading to Westminster really really soon?)
    Why does he think he's so great anyway? Ran in 2010 for no good reason and got a whopping 8%. Narcissist weirdo. I'd rather keep Starmer.
    Lost in 2015 to Jihadi Jez.
    And that proves he can beat the Greens…? 🤔
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,467

    Nigelb said:

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Trump: “I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2050709101781639456

    A pretty feeble effort at rationalising the quagmire.

    The rest of the world is paying the price of Trump's idiocy.
    But some woke stuff, like windmills, have been stopped, so it’s all OK… is, I understand, the line to be taken.
    "RADICAL LEFT LUNATIC WINDMILLS! Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
    Good morning everyone. Very pleasant here; lots of sun and white(ish) clouds.

    Can anyone explain why Trump always ends his posts with "Thank you for your attention to this matter!"? He is, after all, no matter how much we may regret it, POTUS so anyone with more than a very passing interest in current affairs is bound to take an interest in his ravings.
    Due to being an absolute narcissistic bellend, he thinks it is clever
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,215
    On Thread.

    I share TSE's scepticism as expressed earlier in the thread.

    These stories are clearly coming from the Burnham camp, with absolutely no cooroberating evidence. "Story" is an apt word for them because they are fiction. The Telegraph doesn't mind running them because they serve to undermine Starmer. But I remember the times when those on the left didn't lap up every word they read in the Telegraph as the gospel truth.

    Reality is that Starmer has ensured that the factional right in the Labour Party is absolutely dominant in terms of the NEC officer posts, with the exception of Lucy Powell who they could not prevent from being elected as Deputy Leader. Even if some of them have decided that Starmer has to go, then such is their factionalism that they are not going to try an engineer a drawn out coup that would somehow usher in the favoured candidate of the Socialist Campaign Group, just because he is the candidate most likely to appeal to the general public. They will try a reset with one of their own, which means either getting behind Streeting or, if they think Streeting has no hope of winning a member ballot, they might just compromise a bit and favour someone with broader appeal like say Cooper. But with Burnham flying his left wing manifesto from the rooftops, no way will they facilitate a route for Burnham.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,450

    theProle said:

    carnforth said:

    Preparations begin...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c794zd1vqn4o

    "Airlines can cancel flights in advance over fuel shortages, under new plans"

    It makes a lot of sense; if there are going to be serious shortages, frankly the last thing we should be doing with the available resources is burning it so people can go on their holibobs. Most air travel is moderately frivolous - things like power generation and food supply really aren't.
    Unless someone has a monopoly they're abusing there shouldn't be a rule that you have to use your slot to keep it in the first place. Just sell it to the highest bidder and let them fill it or not.
    Most of the slots were allocated historically and now it is “use it or lose it”
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 6,012

    It’s not the equivalent of ditching Thatcher in 81.

    Starmer has nothing he is trying to do.

    We need somebody with an idea or two who can sell it. Labour still has plenty of time to win the next election but not with Sir Keir at the helm.

    I get a feeling that he has so tarnished the party that it will take a very long time to rebuild any trust
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,144

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Who'd have thunk that keeping a loser like Starner might be the least worst solution.
    How low can the Country sink.

    It's harsh, I know, but Labour general election wins do tend to result in Labour Prime Ministers.
    Though it's not particularly a partisan point.

    Badenoch, Davey, Farage and Polanski are different kinds of dreadful.

    Maybe 2024's Sunak v Starmer is as good as it got.
    As much as I don’t rate Starmer I do think he’s the best of a very poor bunch.

    Reeves seems to be more important than Starmer. Especially to the bond markets.

    We live in challenging times and our politicians are poor.
    Absurd. Badenoch, Farage, and Davy are all better than Starmer.
    Davey

    😉
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,233
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Who'd have thunk that keeping a loser like Starner might be the least worst solution.
    How low can the Country sink.

    It's harsh, I know, but Labour general election wins do tend to result in Labour Prime Ministers.
    Though it's not particularly a partisan point.

    Badenoch, Davey, Farage and Polanski are different kinds of dreadful.

    Maybe 2024's Sunak v Starmer is as good as it got.
    As much as I don’t rate Starmer I do think he’s the best of a very poor bunch.

    Reeves seems to be more important than Starmer. Especially to the bond markets.

    We live in challenging times and our politicians are poor.
    Absurd. Badenoch, Farage, and Davy are all better than Starmer.
    Davey

    😉


    Hey hey we're the LibDems.
This discussion has been closed.