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Why the mainstream parties will be swept aside next week – politicalbetting.com

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  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,674

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Thanks for the thread, @RochdalePioneers.

    I don't wholly agree though I appreciate the argument.

    There are signs turnout next Thursday is going to be low - we had a GE in July 2024 with a historically low turnout. Yet we are to believe people are angry. If so, this is anger manifesting as apathy.

    The sentiment may be "I want change" but there's no broad support for anty party advocating change yet as there isn't for those trying to manage the status quo. Indeed, I'd argue the sense of resignation, of a disassociation from the political process, is, if anything, more dangerous and insidious than large numbers voting for extreme parties.

    How do we get a sense of re-engagement (if that's what we want) ? How do we get people to once again think what their view is matters ? How do we convince those who shout on social media they can be part of a political process?

    All the polls tell me is people want change. But do they want Reform change? Not convinced.

    I still think Kemi has a legitimate chance of being change.
    She doesn't offer "change". All her commitments are simply uncosted pledges which play well but show no real understanding of how, for example, £120 billion of borrowing is to be reduced.

    It's amazing but not surprising how some on here have bought into her worship of the Magic Money Tree.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,082
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Thanks for the thread, @RochdalePioneers.

    I don't wholly agree though I appreciate the argument.

    There are signs turnout next Thursday is going to be low - we had a GE in July 2024 with a historically low turnout. Yet we are to believe people are angry. If so, this is anger manifesting as apathy.

    The sentiment may be "I want change" but there's no broad support for anty party advocating change yet as there isn't for those trying to manage the status quo. Indeed, I'd argue the sense of resignation, of a disassociation from the political process, is, if anything, more dangerous and insidious than large numbers voting for extreme parties.

    How do we get a sense of re-engagement (if that's what we want) ? How do we get people to once again think what their view is matters ? How do we convince those who shout on social media they can be part of a political process?

    If we had compulsory voting, with a NOTA option, NOTA would win an absolute majority. It would be a deserved majority.
    Yes but as Labour discovered, simply saying "change" without enunciating what that means, only gets you so far.

    For some, I suspect "change" is more about a reversion to what they once knew - nostalgia ain't what it used to be as someone once said, but the past can be appealing if the future looks difficult and dangerous.

    For others, and without calling a spade a garden implement, it's about immigration and "boats".

    In more practical terms, how do you reduce fly tipping, how do you re-invigorate the High Street and how do you get more Police on the streets? These are slogans I've seen from leaflets here in East Ham but without a single syllable of explanation as to how these desirable aims are to be achieved.
    Increased taxation is the only practical way.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 22,097

    Leon said:

    Easy to feel disheartened by these antisemitic attacks taking place in the UK but let's not feel ashamed. It's Israel not Britain that's to blame.

    Right?

    It shames the nation. It’s disgraceful

    If I was Jewish I would absolutely not feel safe in the UK. Not at home, not in the synagogue, not walking the streets

    And the left have enabled this in different ways
    I'd imagine elements of the left don't understand the damage that being against 'Zionism' but not 'Anti-semitic' has done. Idiots like Corbyn being pals with lots of interesting characters.
    "Antisemitism" has been so devalued by the false claims on anyone who is against Israels Genocide that it is now worthless.
    Israel is to blame for criticism of Israeli policy - even vehement criticism seems justified, and I wouldn't call it antisemitic (and I'm Jewish). Obviously that doesn't justify attacks on Jews, and it's important that Jews and everyone else feels safe. I don't think either half of that is even controversial.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,793

    kle4 said:

    Skimming through PB today is like doom scrolling - apparently everybody in the country is fucking miserable, deeply discontented and can barely afford to live. Is it really as bad as this? Most people I know and come across, of all generations and from all walks of life, have pretty good lives and are broadly content. Material deprivation is obviously rife in some areas, but not generally.

    I'm just not convinced that the country is as in bad a state as the prevailing, and dominant, discourse suggests.

    I don't think the country is completely miserable nor that we are suffering in relative global terms, but I do think the country is not as rich as it thinks it is and that is storing up problems for the future, and that a lot of basic things simply do not work well or cost way too much, resulting in a level of low grade crappiness that makes it easy to think things are a lot worse than they are.
    It's where I think Rochdale is on the money with getting the weeds out of the pavements and so on. In terms of contentment per pound, sorting out Streetscene probably rates pretty well. Hence the hanging baskets model of regeneration; it can't be the whole story, but it's a start. Shit as all those ziptied flags look now, and dodgy as some of their motivations are, I wonder if there was also a "something nice to look at" impulse, however poor the execution.

    The catch is that it's hard to justify spending on morale-boosting niceness when core services are creaking. Which is the other half of the equation. A better society requires spending, and there's little sign that we really want to pay the taxes to cover that spending. So we're a bit stuck.
    Councils can’t spend money on anything that’s not ringfenced, because of the social care albatross. I don’t see improvement unless social care is taken away from councils and provided nationally, in conjunction with the NHS. They will also need to fund and staff it adequately. Whether that is funded by tax rises, borrowing, or both, it needs to be done. Councils can then provide the remaining local services, like roads and streetscene. They will also need to be funded adequately. Tax cuts have cost us dearly.
    Yes, social care is very important but councils can now barely do the things people expect to see from them.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Thanks for the thread, @RochdalePioneers.

    I don't wholly agree though I appreciate the argument.

    There are signs turnout next Thursday is going to be low - we had a GE in July 2024 with a historically low turnout. Yet we are to believe people are angry. If so, this is anger manifesting as apathy.

    The sentiment may be "I want change" but there's no broad support for anty party advocating change yet as there isn't for those trying to manage the status quo. Indeed, I'd argue the sense of resignation, of a disassociation from the political process, is, if anything, more dangerous and insidious than large numbers voting for extreme parties.

    How do we get a sense of re-engagement (if that's what we want) ? How do we get people to once again think what their view is matters ? How do we convince those who shout on social media they can be part of a political process?

    If we had compulsory voting, with a NOTA option, NOTA would win an absolute majority. It would be a deserved majority.
    Would it though?

    Ghastly as many politicians are, they've done a reasonable job of giving us a fairly good representation of what we collectively say we want. HOSPITALS, schools, no increases in tax rates and no building near me (where "near me" turns into "everywhere" for sufficiently large values of "me".) So the nation has flogged off stuff to remote shadowy landlords because we wanted the cash thankyou and then act surprised when those shadowy landlords act in their interests not ours. We smiled as maintenance cycles were extended far into the future to save spending and are now cross that everything is so tatty.

    We (if you were old enough to vote for Thatcher, Major and Blair) or our parents (if you weren't) voted for this. Hence the scramble for some evil other to blame.

    I know that Brecht's poem Die Lösung was satirical- but that line at the end ("Would it not in that case/Be simpler for the government/To dissolve the people/And elect another?") cuts through a bit in a democracy. We do get the government and outcomes we deserve, even if we don't desire them.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,333
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    The stabbing in Golders Green looks like it will become a culture war over the way the perpetrator was detained.

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2049486444666802527

    If that video is genuine, there doesnt seem any legitimate reason for both of those officers to be kicking the guy's head like that, when he's been tasered and doesn't offer any resistance?

    But is the video genuine?
    Are you fucking serious?

    He’s just stabbed two Jews and is still holding a knife and resisting. In literally any other country on earth he would have been shot dead. He’s incredibly lucky
    Or incredibly unlucky if he wanted to get shot straight to paradise.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,133
    Referring back to the Guardian story on Farage's £5m gift, it seems he, Harborne and Reform stalled the Guardian's request for comment on their story until they could arrange a soft reveal in the Telegraph. G's whining about it would suggest the editor has no bottle.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,750

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    The stabbing in Golders Green looks like it will become a culture war over the way the perpetrator was detained.

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2049486444666802527

    If that video is genuine, there doesnt seem any legitimate reason for both of those officers to be kicking the guy's head like that, when he's been tasered and doesn't offer any resistance?

    But is the video genuine?
    Are you fucking serious?

    He’s just stabbed two Jews and is still holding a knife and resisting. In literally any other country on earth he would have been shot dead. He’s incredibly lucky
    Or incredibly unlucky if he wanted to get shot straight to paradise.
    72 year-old virgins?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,133

    scampi25 said:

    London is not dying and is as wonderful as ever. The sun comes out and everyone looks happy and the atmosphere is just unbeatable.

    I blame the Tories entirely for the issues the country is facing

    Then you're being obtuse.
    I blame austerity for destroying the social fabric of the UK.

    We are still a great country. But they made it worse.
    Yet Labour going into the 2010 general election were promising spending cuts.

    Alistair Darling: we will cut deeper than Margaret Thatcher

    Thinktank warns of 'two parliaments of pain' with spending slashed by 25% to repair black hole in finance


    Alistair Darling admitted tonight that Labour's planned cuts in public spending will be "deeper and tougher" than Margaret Thatcher's in the 1980s, as the country's leading experts on tax and spending warned that Britain faces "two parliaments of pain" to repair the black hole in the state's finances.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/mar/25/alistair-darling-cut-deeper-margaret-thatcher
    The Tories cut the police force.
    Yes, that's what happens when you inherit one of the largest budget deficits in the EU.
    Do you think we might have been able to cut something else other than the police?

    Of all the things to cut, that has to be the dumbest.
    I don't know why anyone is quoting Darling, there seems to be a misconception that the former CoE and micromanaging control freak Gordon Brown would have allowed him to make decisions on economic policy.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,909
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Skimming through PB today is like doom scrolling - apparently everybody in the country is fucking miserable, deeply discontented and can barely afford to live. Is it really as bad as this? Most people I know and come across, of all generations and from all walks of life, have pretty good lives and are broadly content. Material deprivation is obviously rife in some areas, but not generally.

    I'm just not convinced that the country is as in bad a state as the prevailing, and dominant, discourse suggests.

    I don't think the country is completely miserable nor that we are suffering in relative global terms, but I do think the country is not as rich as it thinks it is and that is storing up problems for the future, and that a lot of basic things simply do not work well or cost way too much, resulting in a level of low grade crappiness that makes it easy to think things are a lot worse than they are.
    It's where I think Rochdale is on the money with getting the weeds out of the pavements and so on. In terms of contentment per pound, sorting out Streetscene probably rates pretty well. Hence the hanging baskets model of regeneration; it can't be the whole story, but it's a start. Shit as all those ziptied flags look now, and dodgy as some of their motivations are, I wonder if there was also a "something nice to look at" impulse, however poor the execution.

    The catch is that it's hard to justify spending on morale-boosting niceness when core services are creaking. Which is the other half of the equation. A better society requires spending, and there's little sign that we really want to pay the taxes to cover that spending. So we're a bit stuck.
    Councils can’t spend money on anything that’s not ringfenced, because of the social care albatross. I don’t see improvement unless social care is taken away from councils and provided nationally, in conjunction with the NHS. They will also need to fund and staff it adequately. Whether that is funded by tax rises, borrowing, or both, it needs to be done. Councils can then provide the remaining local services, like roads and streetscene. They will also need to be funded adequately. Tax cuts have cost us dearly.
    Yes, social care is very important but councils can now barely do the things people expect to see from them.
    because councils have a limited amount of money and it's all going on social care costs that are exploding..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,949
    The 45-year-old suspect also tried to stab officers before he was Tasered and arrested. Police have since declared the incident an act of terrorism and counter-terror officers are 'working to establish [the suspect's] nationality and background'.

    The Daily Mail has learnt that the knifeman was known to both police and the Government’s Prevent deradicalisation programme prior to Tuesday's attack in north London.

    It is understood that the man, who has not been named, had previously been in prison for violence.

    https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15776579/Shame-you-Furious-bystanders-heckle-Met-chief-Mark-Rowley-scene-double-stabbing-call-commissioner-resign-spate-anti-Semitic-attacks.html
  • Police did everything right.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,086
    Dopermean said:

    Referring back to the Guardian story on Farage's £5m gift, it seems he, Harborne and Reform stalled the Guardian's request for comment on their story until they could arrange a soft reveal in the Telegraph. G's whining about it would suggest the editor has no bottle.

    They got mugged off.

    More fool them.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860

    scampi25 said:

    London is not dying and is as wonderful as ever. The sun comes out and everyone looks happy and the atmosphere is just unbeatable.

    I blame the Tories entirely for the issues the country is facing

    Then you're being obtuse.
    I blame austerity for destroying the social fabric of the UK.

    We are still a great country. But they made it worse.
    Yet Labour going into the 2010 general election were promising spending cuts.

    Alistair Darling: we will cut deeper than Margaret Thatcher

    Thinktank warns of 'two parliaments of pain' with spending slashed by 25% to repair black hole in finance


    Alistair Darling admitted tonight that Labour's planned cuts in public spending will be "deeper and tougher" than Margaret Thatcher's in the 1980s, as the country's leading experts on tax and spending warned that Britain faces "two parliaments of pain" to repair the black hole in the state's finances.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/mar/25/alistair-darling-cut-deeper-margaret-thatcher
    The Tories cut the police force.
    Yes, that's what happens when you inherit one of the largest budget deficits in the EU.
    Do you think we might have been able to cut something else other than the police?

    Of all the things to cut, that has to be the dumbest.
    Suspect that the cuts to the courts were dumber- you can have as many police as you like catching alleged crims, but if you can't try them and punish them in with a reasonably fast turnaround, what's the point?

    But lawyers and judges are (sorry to break it to some of my esteemed, I hope I can say, friends, here...) seen as undeserving of pay rises, computers that work, or even buildings. Will of the people, isn't it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,793
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Skimming through PB today is like doom scrolling - apparently everybody in the country is fucking miserable, deeply discontented and can barely afford to live. Is it really as bad as this? Most people I know and come across, of all generations and from all walks of life, have pretty good lives and are broadly content. Material deprivation is obviously rife in some areas, but not generally.

    I'm just not convinced that the country is as in bad a state as the prevailing, and dominant, discourse suggests.

    I don't think the country is completely miserable nor that we are suffering in relative global terms, but I do think the country is not as rich as it thinks it is and that is storing up problems for the future, and that a lot of basic things simply do not work well or cost way too much, resulting in a level of low grade crappiness that makes it easy to think things are a lot worse than they are.
    It's where I think Rochdale is on the money with getting the weeds out of the pavements and so on. In terms of contentment per pound, sorting out Streetscene probably rates pretty well. Hence the hanging baskets model of regeneration; it can't be the whole story, but it's a start. Shit as all those ziptied flags look now, and dodgy as some of their motivations are, I wonder if there was also a "something nice to look at" impulse, however poor the execution.

    The catch is that it's hard to justify spending on morale-boosting niceness when core services are creaking. Which is the other half of the equation. A better society requires spending, and there's little sign that we really want to pay the taxes to cover that spending. So we're a bit stuck.
    Councils can’t spend money on anything that’s not ringfenced, because of the social care albatross. I don’t see improvement unless social care is taken away from councils and provided nationally, in conjunction with the NHS. They will also need to fund and staff it adequately. Whether that is funded by tax rises, borrowing, or both, it needs to be done. Councils can then provide the remaining local services, like roads and streetscene. They will also need to be funded adequately. Tax cuts have cost us dearly.
    Yes, social care is very important but councils can now barely do the things people expect to see from them.
    because councils have a limited amount of money and it's all going on social care costs that are exploding..
    That was the point. People still think councils can do 'normal' council stuff but they increasingly cannot, not at the level people expect, so the sector is unpopular with voters (and MPs unlikely to help as a result) even as demand surges.
  • scampi25 said:

    London is not dying and is as wonderful as ever. The sun comes out and everyone looks happy and the atmosphere is just unbeatable.

    I blame the Tories entirely for the issues the country is facing

    Then you're being obtuse.
    I blame austerity for destroying the social fabric of the UK.

    We are still a great country. But they made it worse.
    Yet Labour going into the 2010 general election were promising spending cuts.

    Alistair Darling: we will cut deeper than Margaret Thatcher

    Thinktank warns of 'two parliaments of pain' with spending slashed by 25% to repair black hole in finance


    Alistair Darling admitted tonight that Labour's planned cuts in public spending will be "deeper and tougher" than Margaret Thatcher's in the 1980s, as the country's leading experts on tax and spending warned that Britain faces "two parliaments of pain" to repair the black hole in the state's finances.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/mar/25/alistair-darling-cut-deeper-margaret-thatcher
    The Tories cut the police force.
    Yes, that's what happens when you inherit one of the largest budget deficits in the EU.
    Do you think we might have been able to cut something else other than the police?

    Of all the things to cut, that has to be the dumbest.
    Suspect that the cuts to the courts were dumber- you can have as many police as you like catching alleged crims, but if you can't try them and punish them in with a reasonably fast turnaround, what's the point?

    But lawyers and judges are (sorry to break it to some of my esteemed, I hope I can say, friends, here...) seen as undeserving of pay rises, computers that work, or even buildings. Will of the people, isn't it?
    Cameron’s cuts have bitten us in the arse almost a decade later.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,811
    Don't usually agree with Ed Davey, but this is an interesting extract from his speech, targeting Farage:

    "Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not a British political movement. They are a franchise. A franchise of Trump’s Maga politics.
    Copying their tactics. Collaborating with their people. Taking Musk’s money. And carrying water for the Kremlin.

    "This is not the type of politics we want in our country. These are not the values we want in our communities. And these are not the people we want running our councils. Trying to turn our great country into an outpost of Trump’s Maga empire. What a bleak vision that is for our United Kingdom."

    A lot of truth in this. But you could also say much the same about Polanski - another grotesque opportunist - and his monetising (politically) of the Green brand which is also international.

    I wonder how the LibDems are going to address the Greens who have taken their place as the NOTA alternative in much of the country.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,373
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sundowners. Zebra behind us hippos in front, fish eagles all around



    It is just such a stunning place for adventures.

    If you ever get the chance, jump at going to the Ngorongoro Crater in Tanzania.
    I have done Ngorongoro and the landscapes are peerless and the noom is intense. Tho honestly the game viewing is actually better here in Akegawa

    I have had superior game experiences in Zambia. In Kafue and Luangwa at the end of the Dry. But other than that this is top class

    And only here in Rwanda can you combine superb classic safari with mountain gorillas a few hours away
    It is more than thirty years since I was in the Crater, but one of those places that stays with you forever A hrd of 12 black rhino was a bit spesh - as well as tuskers with huge tusks that crossed over. And cheetah kittens bouncing on each other - off the scale cuteness.

    Okavanga Delta is still on my hit list. And Madagascar.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,373

    Don't usually agree with Ed Davey, but this is an interesting extract from his speech, targeting Farage:

    "Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not a British political movement. They are a franchise. A franchise of Trump’s Maga politics.
    Copying their tactics. Collaborating with their people. Taking Musk’s money. And carrying water for the Kremlin.

    "This is not the type of politics we want in our country. These are not the values we want in our communities. And these are not the people we want running our councils. Trying to turn our great country into an outpost of Trump’s Maga empire. What a bleak vision that is for our United Kingdom."

    A lot of truth in this. But you could also say much the same about Polanski - another grotesque opportunist - and his monetising (politically) of the Green brand which is also international.

    I wonder how the LibDems are going to address the Greens who have taken their place as the NOTA alternative in much of the country.

    We live in the Age of Grotesque Opportunists.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,811

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sundowners. Zebra behind us hippos in front, fish eagles all around



    It is just such a stunning place for adventures.

    If you ever get the chance, jump at going to the Ngorongoro Crater in Tanzania.
    I have done Ngorongoro and the landscapes are peerless and the noom is intense. Tho honestly the game viewing is actually better here in Akegawa

    I have had superior game experiences in Zambia. In Kafue and Luangwa at the end of the Dry. But other than that this is top class

    And only here in Rwanda can you combine superb classic safari with mountain gorillas a few hours away
    It is more than thirty years since I was in the Crater, but one of those places that stays with you forever A hrd of 12 black rhino was a bit spesh - as well as tuskers with huge tusks that crossed over. And cheetah kittens bouncing on each other - off the scale cuteness.

    Okavanga Delta is still on my hit list. And Madagascar.
    Hmm. Have to say I have been put off this kind of thing by reports of safari guides dashing around trying to show wildlife tourists the Big Five (lion, leopard, elephant etc) so they can tick them off. Sounds grisly.

    Suspect I would gain more satisfaction from running my moth trap.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834
    edited April 29

    Don't usually agree with Ed Davey, but this is an interesting extract from his speech, targeting Farage:

    "Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not a British political movement. They are a franchise. A franchise of Trump’s Maga politics.
    Copying their tactics. Collaborating with their people. Taking Musk’s money. And carrying water for the Kremlin.

    "This is not the type of politics we want in our country. These are not the values we want in our communities. And these are not the people we want running our councils. Trying to turn our great country into an outpost of Trump’s Maga empire. What a bleak vision that is for our United Kingdom."

    A lot of truth in this. But you could also say much the same about Polanski - another grotesque opportunist - and his monetising (politically) of the Green brand which is also international.

    I wonder how the LibDems are going to address the Greens who have taken their place as the NOTA alternative in much of the country.

    It's a bit hypocritical for people who actively desire political integration with other similar countries to complain about transnational politics.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,647

    Don't usually agree with Ed Davey, but this is an interesting extract from his speech, targeting Farage:

    "Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not a British political movement. They are a franchise. A franchise of Trump’s Maga politics.
    Copying their tactics. Collaborating with their people. Taking Musk’s money. And carrying water for the Kremlin.

    "This is not the type of politics we want in our country. These are not the values we want in our communities. And these are not the people we want running our councils. Trying to turn our great country into an outpost of Trump’s Maga empire. What a bleak vision that is for our United Kingdom."

    A lot of truth in this. But you could also say much the same about Polanski - another grotesque opportunist - and his monetising (politically) of the Green brand which is also international.

    I wonder how the LibDems are going to address the Greens who have taken their place as the NOTA alternative in much of the country.

    It's a bit hypocritical for people who actively desire political integration with other similar countries to complain about transnational politics.
    been on the meth early today mr glenn?
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Sundowners. Zebra behind us hippos in front, fish eagles all around



    It is just such a stunning place for adventures.

    If you ever get the chance, jump at going to the Ngorongoro Crater in Tanzania.
    I have done Ngorongoro and the landscapes are peerless and the noom is intense. Tho honestly the game viewing is actually better here in Akegawa

    I have had superior game experiences in Zambia. In Kafue and Luangwa at the end of the Dry. But other than that this is top class

    And only here in Rwanda can you combine superb classic safari with mountain gorillas a few hours away
    It is more than thirty years since I was in the Crater, but one of those places that stays with you forever A hrd of 12 black rhino was a bit spesh - as well as tuskers with huge tusks that crossed over. And cheetah kittens bouncing on each other - off the scale cuteness.

    Okavanga Delta is still on my hit list. And Madagascar.
    Hmm. Have to say I have been put off this kind of thing by reports of safari guides dashing around trying to show wildlife tourists the Big Five (lion, leopard, elephant etc) so they can tick them off. Sounds grisly.

    Suspect I would gain more satisfaction from running my moth trap.
    The Ngorongoro is an incredible place and would be even if there were no animals and a large multi-storey car park in the middle. I was 20 and a student when I went there, but it still lives with me. In fact that’s probably partly why it lives with me. I was travelling alone and making new temporary friends everywhere I stopped, rather like Blanche this week.

    My son (18, on his gap year) is getting those sorts of memories now. He called us today from Kashgar. Like a cross between Marrakech and Tbilisi with a touch of added totalitarianism. Tomorrow he’s off on the bus to see some bactrian camels in the Taklamakan desert. He was pondering which direction next: across the passes into Kyrgyzstan, into the Pamirs in Tajikistan, or down through the Karakorum into Pakistan. He’d realised that it’s entirely up to him. The joys of solo travel.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,674
    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Skimming through PB today is like doom scrolling - apparently everybody in the country is fucking miserable, deeply discontented and can barely afford to live. Is it really as bad as this? Most people I know and come across, of all generations and from all walks of life, have pretty good lives and are broadly content. Material deprivation is obviously rife in some areas, but not generally.

    I'm just not convinced that the country is as in bad a state as the prevailing, and dominant, discourse suggests.

    I don't think the country is completely miserable nor that we are suffering in relative global terms, but I do think the country is not as rich as it thinks it is and that is storing up problems for the future, and that a lot of basic things simply do not work well or cost way too much, resulting in a level of low grade crappiness that makes it easy to think things are a lot worse than they are.
    It's where I think Rochdale is on the money with getting the weeds out of the pavements and so on. In terms of contentment per pound, sorting out Streetscene probably rates pretty well. Hence the hanging baskets model of regeneration; it can't be the whole story, but it's a start. Shit as all those ziptied flags look now, and dodgy as some of their motivations are, I wonder if there was also a "something nice to look at" impulse, however poor the execution.

    The catch is that it's hard to justify spending on morale-boosting niceness when core services are creaking. Which is the other half of the equation. A better society requires spending, and there's little sign that we really want to pay the taxes to cover that spending. So we're a bit stuck.
    Councils can’t spend money on anything that’s not ringfenced, because of the social care albatross. I don’t see improvement unless social care is taken away from councils and provided nationally, in conjunction with the NHS. They will also need to fund and staff it adequately. Whether that is funded by tax rises, borrowing, or both, it needs to be done. Councils can then provide the remaining local services, like roads and streetscene. They will also need to be funded adequately. Tax cuts have cost us dearly.
    Yes, social care is very important but councils can now barely do the things people expect to see from them.
    because councils have a limited amount of money and it's all going on social care costs that are exploding..
    That was the point. People still think councils can do 'normal' council stuff but they increasingly cannot, not at the level people expect, so the sector is unpopular with voters (and MPs unlikely to help as a result) even as demand surges.
    Indeed and if you add in housing and SEN, the squeeze is even tighter.

    The failure of central Government to recognise the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children as a national issue requiring a national solution has left local councils of all stripes and none under severe financial pressure.

    One million local Government jobs were lost from 2012 as a result of the Coalition's policies which left the NHS and education untouched but savaged other areas of local council provision.

    In addition, buildings like operational Police stations were sold off leaving the ability to maintain adequate Police coverage compromised and that was compounded by changes in operational procedure instigated by Theresa May as Home Secretary.

    I'm ashamed looking back at how much the Coalition got wrong though it is often lauded as a period of stable Government.

    The stupid thing is we're not a poor country - there's a huge amount of wealth out there but it's not where it needs to be and the Services on which so many rely are run at shoestring levels unnecessarily.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    Tres said:

    Don't usually agree with Ed Davey, but this is an interesting extract from his speech, targeting Farage:

    "Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not a British political movement. They are a franchise. A franchise of Trump’s Maga politics.
    Copying their tactics. Collaborating with their people. Taking Musk’s money. And carrying water for the Kremlin.

    "This is not the type of politics we want in our country. These are not the values we want in our communities. And these are not the people we want running our councils. Trying to turn our great country into an outpost of Trump’s Maga empire. What a bleak vision that is for our United Kingdom."

    A lot of truth in this. But you could also say much the same about Polanski - another grotesque opportunist - and his monetising (politically) of the Green brand which is also international.

    I wonder how the LibDems are going to address the Greens who have taken their place as the NOTA alternative in much of the country.

    It's a bit hypocritical for people who actively desire political integration with other similar countries to complain about transnational politics.
    been on the meth early today mr glenn?
    It’s telling that he sees Trump’s US and Putin’s Russia as “similar countries”.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,888

    Don't usually agree with Ed Davey, but this is an interesting extract from his speech, targeting Farage:

    "Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not a British political movement. They are a franchise. A franchise of Trump’s Maga politics.
    Copying their tactics. Collaborating with their people. Taking Musk’s money. And carrying water for the Kremlin.

    "This is not the type of politics we want in our country. These are not the values we want in our communities. And these are not the people we want running our councils. Trying to turn our great country into an outpost of Trump’s Maga empire. What a bleak vision that is for our United Kingdom."

    A lot of truth in this. But you could also say much the same about Polanski - another grotesque opportunist - and his monetising (politically) of the Green brand which is also international.

    I wonder how the LibDems are going to address the Greens who have taken their place as the NOTA alternative in much of the country.

    We live in the Age of Grotesque Opportunists.
    Some of them even become PMs.
    No names, no pack drill.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,888
    Tres said:

    Don't usually agree with Ed Davey, but this is an interesting extract from his speech, targeting Farage:

    "Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not a British political movement. They are a franchise. A franchise of Trump’s Maga politics.
    Copying their tactics. Collaborating with their people. Taking Musk’s money. And carrying water for the Kremlin.

    "This is not the type of politics we want in our country. These are not the values we want in our communities. And these are not the people we want running our councils. Trying to turn our great country into an outpost of Trump’s Maga empire. What a bleak vision that is for our United Kingdom."

    A lot of truth in this. But you could also say much the same about Polanski - another grotesque opportunist - and his monetising (politically) of the Green brand which is also international.

    I wonder how the LibDems are going to address the Greens who have taken their place as the NOTA alternative in much of the country.

    It's a bit hypocritical for people who actively desire political integration with other similar countries to complain about transnational politics.
    been on the meth early today mr glenn?
    Crystal, -adone or -ylated?
  • Matt Goodwin, urgh
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,219
    edited April 29
    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:
    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,219

    Don't usually agree with Ed Davey, but this is an interesting extract from his speech, targeting Farage:

    "Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not a British political movement. They are a franchise. A franchise of Trump’s Maga politics.
    Copying their tactics. Collaborating with their people. Taking Musk’s money. And carrying water for the Kremlin.

    "This is not the type of politics we want in our country. These are not the values we want in our communities. And these are not the people we want running our councils. Trying to turn our great country into an outpost of Trump’s Maga empire. What a bleak vision that is for our United Kingdom."

    A lot of truth in this. But you could also say much the same about Polanski - another grotesque opportunist - and his monetising (politically) of the Green brand which is also international.

    I wonder how the LibDems are going to address the Greens who have taken their place as the NOTA alternative in much of the country.

    It's a bit hypocritical for people who actively desire political integration with other similar countries to complain about transnational politics.
    Hopefully they're not carrying too much water for the Kremlin, as Ed never sees a large body of water without wishing to dive into it to twat around infront of a camera.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    Enten: "These are the worst numbers I've ever seen for any president on inflation. Trump is 49 points underwater. Biden -- inflation absolutely crushed his presidency -- but at his worst he was only 43 points underwater. Trump is in a worse position on inflation than Jimmy Carter was!"

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2049539902375637186


    Narrator: The inflation from the Straits has barely started

    Which is why Starmer is (should be) safe. No new PM wants the forthcoming cost of living crisis to define their first six months. Should be as that relies on candidates for PM having an inkling of common sense and economic understanding, which might be asking a tad too much.
    One of the factors at play is that Burnham's desire to return to the Commons to become leader hangs like a sword of Damocles over the prospects of every other leadership contender.

    If any other Labour MP wants to become PM they will know their chances are much better if the leadership contest occurs before Burnham can participate. Delay for too long and they miss their chance.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834
    Zia Yusuf says that he would ban Zohran Mamdani from Britain.

    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/2049563384496963690

    This beautiful diamond is currently on display in the Tower of London

    That is where it will stay.

    Mamdani may be looting New Yorkers, but he will have no joy in Britain.

    Unless he retracts this insult to our King, as Home Secretary I would ban him from entering Britain.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,647

    Don't usually agree with Ed Davey, but this is an interesting extract from his speech, targeting Farage:

    "Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not a British political movement. They are a franchise. A franchise of Trump’s Maga politics.
    Copying their tactics. Collaborating with their people. Taking Musk’s money. And carrying water for the Kremlin.

    "This is not the type of politics we want in our country. These are not the values we want in our communities. And these are not the people we want running our councils. Trying to turn our great country into an outpost of Trump’s Maga empire. What a bleak vision that is for our United Kingdom."

    A lot of truth in this. But you could also say much the same about Polanski - another grotesque opportunist - and his monetising (politically) of the Green brand which is also international.

    I wonder how the LibDems are going to address the Greens who have taken their place as the NOTA alternative in much of the country.

    It's a bit hypocritical for people who actively desire political integration with other similar countries to complain about transnational politics.
    Hopefully they're not carrying too much water for the Kremlin, as Ed never sees a large body of water without wishing to dive into it to twat around infront of a camera.
    its striking that criticism of the lib dems from a certain demographic has flipped over from 'dont know nuffink about them' to 'ed always doing stunts he not a serious geezer'
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,293

    Don't usually agree with Ed Davey, but this is an interesting extract from his speech, targeting Farage:

    "Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not a British political movement. They are a franchise. A franchise of Trump’s Maga politics.
    Copying their tactics. Collaborating with their people. Taking Musk’s money. And carrying water for the Kremlin.

    "This is not the type of politics we want in our country. These are not the values we want in our communities. And these are not the people we want running our councils. Trying to turn our great country into an outpost of Trump’s Maga empire. What a bleak vision that is for our United Kingdom."

    A lot of truth in this. But you could also say much the same about Polanski - another grotesque opportunist - and his monetising (politically) of the Green brand which is also international.

    I wonder how the LibDems are going to address the Greens who have taken their place as the NOTA alternative in much of the country.

    It's a bit hypocritical for people who actively desire political integration with other similar countries to complain about transnational politics.
    Hopefully they're not carrying too much water for the Kremlin, as Ed never sees a large body of water without wishing to dive into it to twat around infront of a camera.
    Davey just isnt up to the job of leading his party
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,793
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Skimming through PB today is like doom scrolling - apparently everybody in the country is fucking miserable, deeply discontented and can barely afford to live. Is it really as bad as this? Most people I know and come across, of all generations and from all walks of life, have pretty good lives and are broadly content. Material deprivation is obviously rife in some areas, but not generally.

    I'm just not convinced that the country is as in bad a state as the prevailing, and dominant, discourse suggests.

    I don't think the country is completely miserable nor that we are suffering in relative global terms, but I do think the country is not as rich as it thinks it is and that is storing up problems for the future, and that a lot of basic things simply do not work well or cost way too much, resulting in a level of low grade crappiness that makes it easy to think things are a lot worse than they are.
    It's where I think Rochdale is on the money with getting the weeds out of the pavements and so on. In terms of contentment per pound, sorting out Streetscene probably rates pretty well. Hence the hanging baskets model of regeneration; it can't be the whole story, but it's a start. Shit as all those ziptied flags look now, and dodgy as some of their motivations are, I wonder if there was also a "something nice to look at" impulse, however poor the execution.

    The catch is that it's hard to justify spending on morale-boosting niceness when core services are creaking. Which is the other half of the equation. A better society requires spending, and there's little sign that we really want to pay the taxes to cover that spending. So we're a bit stuck.
    Councils can’t spend money on anything that’s not ringfenced, because of the social care albatross. I don’t see improvement unless social care is taken away from councils and provided nationally, in conjunction with the NHS. They will also need to fund and staff it adequately. Whether that is funded by tax rises, borrowing, or both, it needs to be done. Councils can then provide the remaining local services, like roads and streetscene. They will also need to be funded adequately. Tax cuts have cost us dearly.
    Yes, social care is very important but councils can now barely do the things people expect to see from them.
    because councils have a limited amount of money and it's all going on social care costs that are exploding..
    That was the point. People still think councils can do 'normal' council stuff but they increasingly cannot, not at the level people expect, so the sector is unpopular with voters (and MPs unlikely to help as a result) even as demand surges.
    Indeed and if you add in housing and SEN, the squeeze is even tighter.

    The failure of central Government to recognise the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children as a national issue requiring a national solution has left local councils of all stripes and none under severe financial pressure.

    One million local Government jobs were lost from 2012 as a result of the Coalition's policies which left the NHS and education untouched but savaged other areas of local council provision.

    In addition, buildings like operational Police stations were sold off leaving the ability to maintain adequate Police coverage compromised and that was compounded by changes in operational procedure instigated by Theresa May as Home Secretary.

    I'm ashamed looking back at how much the Coalition got wrong though it is often lauded as a period of stable Government.

    The stupid thing is we're not a poor country - there's a huge amount of wealth out there but it's not where it needs to be and the Services on which so many rely are run at shoestring levels unnecessarily.
    It was a period of stable government and got some things right, but it definitely made some wrong choices too which are pretty big ones.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,293

    Matt Goodwin, urgh

    Keir Starmer urgher
    Ed Miliband urghest
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,219

    Zia Yusuf says that he would ban Zohran Mamdani from Britain.

    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/2049563384496963690

    This beautiful diamond is currently on display in the Tower of London

    That is where it will stay.

    Mamdani may be looting New Yorkers, but he will have no joy in Britain.

    Unless he retracts this insult to our King, as Home Secretary I would ban him from entering Britain.

    "AND I THINK FOUL SCORN THAT ZORAN MAMDANI, OR ANY MAYOR OF AMERICA SHOULD DARE TO INVADE THE BORDERS OF MY REALM"

    Yes Zia you tell him.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,011

    Matt Goodwin, urgh

    Keir Starmer urgher
    Ed Miliband urghest
    I raise you a Farage
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,293

    Matt Goodwin, urgh

    Keir Starmer urgher
    Ed Miliband urghest
    I raise you a Farage
    I'll see your Farage and raise you Lord Hermer
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,219

    Don't usually agree with Ed Davey, but this is an interesting extract from his speech, targeting Farage:

    "Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not a British political movement. They are a franchise. A franchise of Trump’s Maga politics.
    Copying their tactics. Collaborating with their people. Taking Musk’s money. And carrying water for the Kremlin.

    "This is not the type of politics we want in our country. These are not the values we want in our communities. And these are not the people we want running our councils. Trying to turn our great country into an outpost of Trump’s Maga empire. What a bleak vision that is for our United Kingdom."

    A lot of truth in this. But you could also say much the same about Polanski - another grotesque opportunist - and his monetising (politically) of the Green brand which is also international.

    I wonder how the LibDems are going to address the Greens who have taken their place as the NOTA alternative in much of the country.

    It's a bit hypocritical for people who actively desire political integration with other similar countries to complain about transnational politics.
    Hopefully they're not carrying too much water for the Kremlin, as Ed never sees a large body of water without wishing to dive into it to twat around infront of a camera.
    Davey just isnt up to the job of leading his party
    He sees it as more of a hobby (horse).

    Ah, my coat.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489

    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:

    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there is are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
    The reality is that most councils have very little power. You are electing representatives to deliver legally obligated services.

    Your costs will be determined by the change in the number of the old and infirm, and the number of school aged children. Your revenues are determined -mostly- by the size of your central government grant. (More than half of council revenues come from central government, against about 30% from council tax.)

  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,493

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Thanks for the thread, @RochdalePioneers.

    I don't wholly agree though I appreciate the argument.

    There are signs turnout next Thursday is going to be low - we had a GE in July 2024 with a historically low turnout. Yet we are to believe people are angry. If so, this is anger manifesting as apathy.

    The sentiment may be "I want change" but there's no broad support for anty party advocating change yet as there isn't for those trying to manage the status quo. Indeed, I'd argue the sense of resignation, of a disassociation from the political process, is, if anything, more dangerous and insidious than large numbers voting for extreme parties.

    How do we get a sense of re-engagement (if that's what we want) ? How do we get people to once again think what their view is matters ? How do we convince those who shout on social media they can be part of a political process?

    All the polls tell me is people want change. But do they want Reform change? Not convinced.

    I still think Kemi has a legitimate chance of being change.
    To change all the things she failed to change when a minister?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    rcs1000 said:

    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:

    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there is are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
    The reality is that most councils have very little power. You are electing representatives to deliver legally obligated services.

    Your costs will be determined by the change in the number of the old and infirm, and the number of school aged children. Your revenues are determined -mostly- by the size of your central government grant. (More than half of council revenues come from central government, against about 30% from council tax.)

    As an aside, we are very lucky that in the UK we don't play silly buggers with central grants. There's nothing to stop Starmer deciding that Labour councils should get a 10% increase in grants, while Reform ones get a 10% decrease. If we were in the US, that would all too common.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860
    rcs1000 said:

    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:

    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there is are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
    The reality is that most councils have very little power. You are electing representatives to deliver legally obligated services.

    Your costs will be determined by the change in the number of the old and infirm, and the number of school aged children. Your revenues are determined -mostly- by the size of your central government grant. (More than half of council revenues come from central government, against about 30% from council tax.)

    Worse even than that- council tax is very difficult to increase. If it's a district, the practical cap is 3%. If it's a county or unitary, it's 5%. If you want to go beyond that, you either need central government permission or to win a referendum.

    Not only are we left with the dilemma that nobody has found a way out of- tax rises or enshittification- but Eric Pickles put an Eric Pickles-sized thumb on the scales between them.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,011
    edited April 29
    Interesting header - thank you @RochdalePioneers.

    I don't doubt that there is a widespread sense of voters wanting "...to not feel shit about their lives. Their town. Their community. The prospects for their kids." as Rochdale puts it.

    The eternal puzzle for me is when did people become so disgruntled with their lot, and why? By most empirical measures we are on average no worse off than we were 5, 10, 15 years ago and much better off than we were at any time before the millennium. Why wasn't discontent driving voters away from the mainstream parties then when it is now?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,219
    edited April 29
    rcs1000 said:

    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:

    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there is are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
    The reality is that most councils have very little power. You are electing representatives to deliver legally obligated services.

    Your costs will be determined by the change in the number of the old and infirm, and the number of school aged children. Your revenues are determined -mostly- by the size of your central government grant. (More than half of council revenues come from central government, against about 30% from council tax.)

    Yes. And those Reformers who argued otherwise were wrong to do so. However, the facts seem to indicate that actually Reform councils have managed to make some savings, perhaps due to their DOLGE activities.

    You could argue it's all luck of the draw, but AI also threw this up:
    One council, Doncaster, has a Reform majority but is nominally under Labour control due to a directly elected mayor. A proposed 4.99% rise was reduced to 2% via a Reform amendment.

    So it appears to me that Reform councils and councillors are working actively to limit council tax rises, whereas if you listen to the mainstream media, they are apparently all ordering gold-plated tiolets.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489

    rcs1000 said:

    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:

    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there is are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
    The reality is that most councils have very little power. You are electing representatives to deliver legally obligated services.

    Your costs will be determined by the change in the number of the old and infirm, and the number of school aged children. Your revenues are determined -mostly- by the size of your central government grant. (More than half of council revenues come from central government, against about 30% from council tax.)

    Yes. And those Reformers who argued otherwise were wrong to do so. However, the facts seem to indicate that actually Reform councils have managed to make some savings, perhaps due to their DOLGE activities.

    You could argue it's all luck of the draw, but AI also threw this up:
    One council, Doncaster, has a Reform majority but is nominally under Labour control due to a directly elected mayor. A proposed 4.99% rise was reduced to 2% via a Reform amendment.

    So it appears to me that Reform councils and councillors are working actively to limit council tax rises, whereas if you listen to the mainstream media, they are apparently all ordering gold-plated tiolets.
    Did the amendment reduce spending and Council Tax... or just Council Tax?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,219
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:

    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there is are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
    The reality is that most councils have very little power. You are electing representatives to deliver legally obligated services.

    Your costs will be determined by the change in the number of the old and infirm, and the number of school aged children. Your revenues are determined -mostly- by the size of your central government grant. (More than half of council revenues come from central government, against about 30% from council tax.)

    Yes. And those Reformers who argued otherwise were wrong to do so. However, the facts seem to indicate that actually Reform councils have managed to make some savings, perhaps due to their DOLGE activities.

    You could argue it's all luck of the draw, but AI also threw this up:
    One council, Doncaster, has a Reform majority but is nominally under Labour control due to a directly elected mayor. A proposed 4.99% rise was reduced to 2% via a Reform amendment.

    So it appears to me that Reform councils and councillors are working actively to limit council tax rises, whereas if you listen to the mainstream media, they are apparently all ordering gold-plated tiolets.
    Did the amendment reduce spending and Council Tax... or just Council Tax?
    Don't know. I am sure a Doncastrian will weigh in.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,086

    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:

    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
    He names Durham as a failing council too.

    I’d strongly dispute that. They’re doing a decent job so far and the council tax increase was only 1.99%
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,811

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Thanks for the thread, @RochdalePioneers.

    I don't wholly agree though I appreciate the argument.

    There are signs turnout next Thursday is going to be low - we had a GE in July 2024 with a historically low turnout. Yet we are to believe people are angry. If so, this is anger manifesting as apathy.

    The sentiment may be "I want change" but there's no broad support for anty party advocating change yet as there isn't for those trying to manage the status quo. Indeed, I'd argue the sense of resignation, of a disassociation from the political process, is, if anything, more dangerous and insidious than large numbers voting for extreme parties.

    How do we get a sense of re-engagement (if that's what we want) ? How do we get people to once again think what their view is matters ? How do we convince those who shout on social media they can be part of a political process?

    All the polls tell me is people want change. But do they want Reform change? Not convinced.

    I still think Kemi has a legitimate chance of being change.
    To change all the things she failed to change when a minister?
    I guess. The question could pertinently be put to Mr Jenrick (former immigration minister) and Mrs Braverman (former Home Secretary) too?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    The problem isn't just a small number of nutters who hate Jews, it's the broader culture. It doesn't surprise me that people can write sympathetic articles in the British press towards those who attack Jewish linked businesses and not be ostracised. But winning awards?

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2026/apr/28/guardian-sport-and-jonathan-liew-win-top-prizes-at-sja-awards#:~:text=The Guardian won sports publisher,journalist of the year category.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351
    Not a single clue about the reality. Not a scooby...


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    1h
    Q: How long are you prepared to maintain the blockade? Several more months?

    TRUMP: Well, the blockade is genius. Now they have to cry uncle. 'We give up.' That's all they have to do

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2049557842881867887
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 32,333

    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:

    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
    SorryGuckyLuy, when Reform council leaders give interviews excusing why they have failed, it’s reasonable to state they have failed on their own terms.

    You think the measure of success is a few basis points less CT increase? You literally have no clue about any of these voters do you? HssAtt
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,086

    Not a single clue about the reality. Not a scooby...


    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    1h
    Q: How long are you prepared to maintain the blockade? Several more months?

    TRUMP: Well, the blockade is genius. Now they have to cry uncle. 'We give up.' That's all they have to do

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2049557842881867887

    I suspect they will tolerate it longer than the US.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,596
    MelonB said:

    Tres said:

    Don't usually agree with Ed Davey, but this is an interesting extract from his speech, targeting Farage:

    "Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not a British political movement. They are a franchise. A franchise of Trump’s Maga politics.
    Copying their tactics. Collaborating with their people. Taking Musk’s money. And carrying water for the Kremlin.

    "This is not the type of politics we want in our country. These are not the values we want in our communities. And these are not the people we want running our councils. Trying to turn our great country into an outpost of Trump’s Maga empire. What a bleak vision that is for our United Kingdom."

    A lot of truth in this. But you could also say much the same about Polanski - another grotesque opportunist - and his monetising (politically) of the Green brand which is also international.

    I wonder how the LibDems are going to address the Greens who have taken their place as the NOTA alternative in much of the country.

    It's a bit hypocritical for people who actively desire political integration with other similar countries to complain about transnational politics.
    been on the meth early today mr glenn?
    It’s telling that he sees Trump’s US and Putin’s Russia as “similar countries”.
    Trump is often little more than a Putin mouthpiece, which is pathetic for a US president.

    Trump: "Ukraine, militarily, they're defeated. You wouldn't know that by reading the fake news."
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2049554815492018561
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,983
    edited April 29

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:

    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there is are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
    The reality is that most councils have very little power. You are electing representatives to deliver legally obligated services.

    Your costs will be determined by the change in the number of the old and infirm, and the number of school aged children. Your revenues are determined -mostly- by the size of your central government grant. (More than half of council revenues come from central government, against about 30% from council tax.)

    Yes. And those Reformers who argued otherwise were wrong to do so. However, the facts seem to indicate that actually Reform councils have managed to make some savings, perhaps due to their DOLGE activities.

    You could argue it's all luck of the draw, but AI also threw this up:
    One council, Doncaster, has a Reform majority but is nominally under Labour control due to a directly elected mayor. A proposed 4.99% rise was reduced to 2% via a Reform amendment.

    So it appears to me that Reform councils and councillors are working actively to limit council tax rises, whereas if you listen to the mainstream media, they are apparently all ordering gold-plated tiolets.
    Did the amendment reduce spending and Council Tax... or just Council Tax?
    Don't know. I am sure a Doncastrian will weigh in.
    I shall ask the Chief Exec when I see him. I suspect the latter.

    Though there is talk that Reform will stop money being thrown at the failed airport, and Lee Pitcher had a go in the commons today:
    https://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/stop-playing-games-and-get-airport-open-angry-pm-tells-reform-uk-8161742

    I'm not sure whether if the bung is stopped it will be
    a) failure to invest in a brighter future, or
    b) not signing up to yet another white elephant.

    Judging by previous efforts at the airport (and earlier, the football stadium), b) is more likely.


    [NB - on why people feel worse - I think the idea that the local environment deteriorating is partially responsible for this is a valid one. Certainly is round here.]
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,834
    https://x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/2049579193558601834

    Excl: Angela Rayner’s allies are urging her to move against Starmer the moment local election results land - warning any delay hands Wes Streeting time to lock up MPs.

    Rayner is understood to be ready to intervene after May 7, but she has not yet decided what message to deliver.

    Streeting’s supporters have also told him he needs to be ready to go.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,949
    edited April 29

    https://x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/2049579193558601834

    Excl: Angela Rayner’s allies are urging her to move against Starmer the moment local election results land - warning any delay hands Wes Streeting time to lock up MPs.

    Rayner is understood to be ready to intervene after May 7, but she has not yet decided what message to deliver.

    Streeting’s supporters have also told him he needs to be ready to go.

    Off to a good start....failed interview question #1, why change leadership / what you going to do better.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,447
    Taz said:

    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:

    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
    He names Durham as a failing council too.

    I’d strongly dispute that. They’re doing a decent job so far and the council tax increase was only 1.99%
    Bradford Council has managed ro halve the rise compared to last year.

    OK, last year was 10% and this year is 5%, but that's not the point.

    Anyway, it won't be Labour's problem next year.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,596
    kle4 said:

    Zia Yusuf says that he would ban Zohran Mamdani from Britain.

    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/2049563384496963690

    This beautiful diamond is currently on display in the Tower of London

    That is where it will stay.

    Mamdani may be looting New Yorkers, but he will have no joy in Britain.

    Unless he retracts this insult to our King, as Home Secretary I would ban him from entering Britain.

    Banning people and snowflake behaviour - welcome on the right and the left.
    The king seems to be rather less of a snowflake than the ridiculous Yusuf.
    https://x.com/I_amMukhtar/status/2049540047540568331
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,139
    One for Frank Booth - Chris Hitchens on Israel

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejadhwDB-OY
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,566

    NEW THREAD

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,860

    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:

    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
    SorryGuckyLuy, when Reform council leaders give interviews excusing why they have failed, it’s reasonable to state they have failed on their own terms.

    You think the measure of success is a few basis points less CT increase? You literally have no clue about any of these voters do you? HssAtt
    But an awful lot of voters want lower taxes. Possilbly to the extent of not caring if the state crumbles around them as a result. If not that, being very insistent that the correlation between income and expenditure is a thing at all.

    As for Doncaster, the papers for their 2026 Budget meeting are here:
    https://doncaster.moderngov.co.uk/ieListDocuments.aspx?CId=130&MId=4751

    (For those pointing out that Reform council areas haven't fallen apart, note that they have spent the first year running under the budget and policies of their unlamented predecessors.)

    I'm not enough of a council finance expert to know what the papers mean, but if nearly a quarter of your savings come from reducing the planned contingency, that doesn't bode well, does it?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,219

    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:

    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
    SorryGuckyLuy, when Reform council leaders give interviews excusing why they have failed, it’s reasonable to state they have failed on their own terms.

    You think the measure of success is a few basis points less CT increase? You literally have no clue about any of these voters do you? HssAtt
    :lol: Gucky Lie would actually be a good name to slag me off with.

    I don't think that is the only measure of success, but I do think it is the important one when the general argument is that Reform promised to cut council tax and LOOK HOW BADLY THEY FAILED BECAUSE THEY ARE A BUNCH OF CHARLATANS. They have actually Charlattened their way to more modest council tax rises than those of more civilised places where voters were too clever to vote Reform.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,219

    This header is in a very classic Pochdale Rioneeers style - I knew it was his a few lines in. Having a style isn't a bad thing, but unfortunately part of the style is often being quite high on panache but low on information.

    Bold claims are made - such as the failure of Reform councils. But is there any evidence that Reform councils have failed by comparison to their non-Reform counterparts?

    AI gives me this answer:

    Comparison with Other Parties
    Reform UK claims to have delivered the lowest average council tax increase of any major party, at 3.94% across its nine majority-controlled upper-tier councils. This is accurate when compared to:

    Conservative-led councils: 4.89% average increase
    Labour-led councils: 4.75%
    Lib Dem-led councils: 5.49%
    Overall average: 4.86%
    That tells me yes that some of the more exaggerated promises of Reform have been broken, but not that we should all be laughing at/commiserating with the poor foolish Reform voters, as the councils they elected have actually raised council tax less, presumably by making savings.

    I also think there are some very bogus assumptions about the poor stupid Reform voters and their level of interest in politics. Reform now has over 270,000 members, and attracts thousands to its meetings. These are people who are passionately interested in politics, who know what they want. These are people who love talking about overturning the Blairite constitutional reforms, and who venerate David Starkey. They are not being duped into voting Reform, nor were they gulled into voting for Brexit - they voted and will keep voting for their vision of the country, which is not the corporatist centrist vision, and it's no use continually saying they would learn to love the modern British political consensus f only they weren't so stupid and misled - they won't, and they're right not to, because it's shit. They are also very wide eyed about Nigel - if he fails they will switch to another vehicle that will not fail.

    So all in all, whilst I applaud the cri de cœur, I don't think there was much in the way of genuine insight.
    SorryGuckyLuy, when Reform council leaders give interviews excusing why they have failed, it’s reasonable to state they have failed on their own terms.

    You think the measure of success is a few basis points less CT increase? You literally have no clue about any of these voters do you? HssAtt
    :lol: Gucky Lie would actually be a good name to slag me off with.

    I don't think that is the only measure of success, but I do think it is the important one when the general argument is that Reform promised to cut council tax and LOOK HOW BADLY THEY FAILED BECAUSE THEY ARE A BUNCH OF CHARLATANS. They have actually Charlattened their way to more modest council tax rises than those of more civilised places where voters were too clever to vote Reform.
    Furthermore, you then look at Birmingham and the chaos there - it doesn't seem a huge advert for the forces of dull competence.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,355

    Interesting header - thank you @RochdalePioneers.

    I don't doubt that there is a widespread sense of voters wanting "...to not feel shit about their lives. Their town. Their community. The prospects for their kids." as Rochdale puts it.

    The eternal puzzle for me is when did people become so disgruntled with their lot, and why? By most empirical measures we are on average no worse off than we were 5, 10, 15 years ago and much better off than we were at any time before the millennium. Why wasn't discontent driving voters away from the mainstream parties then when it is now?

    Because for about 25 years until the financial crisis things were getting better at a reasonable rate. In an average year back then, the economy managed about 2-2.5% growth. There was a sharp setback in the early 90's, from which the Conservative government never recovered.

    But since the financial crisis the economy has struggled to manage 1%/year, and has been beset by a series of nasty shocks.

    In addition, many people have seen their communities change at an unprecedented rate as their noses have been rubbed in diversity, without any democratic consultation whatsoever, and indeed often against the expressed wishes of many of them.

    Finally, we have an exceptionally entitled, arrogant and incompetent political class which never thinks beyond next week's headlines, so has totally failed to solve any of the many problems it has caused, while helping itself to huge expenses and cushy pensions.

    The strange thing isn't why people are angry, it's much odder that they've been so patient for so long.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,444
    Nigelb said:

    MelonB said:

    Tres said:

    Don't usually agree with Ed Davey, but this is an interesting extract from his speech, targeting Farage:

    "Nigel Farage and Reform UK are not a British political movement. They are a franchise. A franchise of Trump’s Maga politics.
    Copying their tactics. Collaborating with their people. Taking Musk’s money. And carrying water for the Kremlin.

    "This is not the type of politics we want in our country. These are not the values we want in our communities. And these are not the people we want running our councils. Trying to turn our great country into an outpost of Trump’s Maga empire. What a bleak vision that is for our United Kingdom."

    A lot of truth in this. But you could also say much the same about Polanski - another grotesque opportunist - and his monetising (politically) of the Green brand which is also international.

    I wonder how the LibDems are going to address the Greens who have taken their place as the NOTA alternative in much of the country.

    It's a bit hypocritical for people who actively desire political integration with other similar countries to complain about transnational politics.
    been on the meth early today mr glenn?
    It’s telling that he sees Trump’s US and Putin’s Russia as “similar countries”.
    Trump is often little more than a Putin mouthpiece, which is pathetic for a US president.

    Trump: "Ukraine, militarily, they're defeated. You wouldn't know that by reading the fake news."
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2049554815492018561
    I wonder whether he muddled up Ukraine and Russia in his addled brain?

    He said at the “they had 139 ships right now they are all underwater”. I don’t think Ukraine had that many ships (if any) and certain Russia has been losing a lot (but don’t know if the score is 139). Or he might just have been referring to Iran…
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 26,261
    Leon said:

    Easy to feel disheartened by these antisemitic attacks taking place in the UK but let's not feel ashamed. It's Israel not Britain that's to blame.

    Right?

    It shames the nation. It’s disgraceful

    If I was Jewish I would absolutely not feel safe in the UK. Not at home, not in the synagogue, not walking the streets

    And the left have enabled this in different ways
    The penny is dropping with some.






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