Brexit effect: employment – politicalbetting.com
Brexit effect: employment – politicalbetting.com
This is the second of four threads on analysing the much-quoted claim that leaving the EU has reduced the UK’s GDP by 6-8%, often shortened to 8%, specifically contained in this study. I promised three in the last thread, not four, but, to avoid overly-long articles, I have split the second thread into two.
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Even this whole conversation is prime Britain. We’re discussing the minutiae of process rather than the key point: Starmer appointed PM as ambassador and he failed security vetting but remained in place. That’s the material points. Is that a resigning matter? Perhaps in a different time. A massive error of judgement and a national security matter. Will he resign? No.
Starmer should have resigned because he chose Mandelson.
He didn’t. He’s not going to suddenly resign now. The media is extremely excitable.
I'm reading Appian's account of the Civil Wars. Caesar's just been murdered, mostly by people he had pardoned rather than punished for siding with Pompey.
That he didn't means he's likely to soldier on, having significantly damaged his credibility and authority.
But that's as unlikely as is Starmer resigning this week.
For a subset of patients, there is potentially an almost miraculous treatment.
Pancreatic cancer has one of the most suppressive tumor microenvironments in oncology.
But two pancreatic cancer results dropped today. Both matter.
1. BioNTech mRNA neoantigen vaccine: nearly all responders still alive at 6 years*. 98% of induced T cells were de novo — the immune system learned to see a cancer it had always been blind to.
2. Daraxonrasib: 47% ORR, 92% disease control as first-line monotherapy. KRAS G12D, undruggable for 40 years, finally has a drug.
Different mechanisms. Same disease. Both working.
<13% of patients survive 5 years. That number is about to change.</i>
https://x.com/BoWang87/status/2046080745819824614
*Very small numbers from a PI trial (8 patients out of 16); a PII trial is still ongoing.
The economic impact of the Iran War makes it even more unlikely he goes this year . Which leadership candidate wants to take over as the economy heads south and inflation spikes.
You voted for a bigger blob.
A jolly good thing we left then.
With the Bozo wave, if anything, net migration may have been lower if we'd not left the EU.
OTOH, I think you could have made an even stronger argument if you hadn’t incorrectly compared gross to net migration. So quite a compelling argument.
The productivity bit is the most interesting to me though, because there are so many indicators suggesting it was damaged, and no real explanation as to what Brexit effects helped it. Looking forward to that.
Nick Robinson gone "full Robbie Gibb" in a very hysterical manner.
Won't stop Remainers/Rejoiners trotting it out, unquestioned mind.
But with the calls for his departure now coming (mainly) from the benches opposite rather than those behind, will there be a bit of rallying to the flag, and therefore making Starmer's position more secure after the May shellacking than would otherwise have been the case?
If there is genuinely no better alternative then replacing Starmer doesn't make sense.
Whether that damage was worth it is up to the reader.
Which protected the officials would had suppressed intelligence on what was about to happen.
This included destroying the career of an SIS guy in Argentina - who persisted in sending reports of the build up. Being right made the offence even worse. So he was still pushed out, after the war.
Beware weasels. If Labour hasn't got anybody better to put forward as PM than a weasel, it should fold up its tent and depart.
The article boils down to "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"
If I claim that I could grow the economy faster than the rest of Europe, employ millions more people etc. then it up to me to provide evidence of where the growth in the economy comes from. And there the people to be employed come from and where they get jobs.
Which leadership candidate wants to take over with that economic impact looming ? Aswell as this Starmer might have banked a little goodwill from his position on the Iran War.
1) Unable to defend PeterM being appointed and in place before vetting, in the circumstances where it was known that PeterM was known to have significant links and form
2) Entirely unable to account for how people, especially Robbins, are sacked for an alleged error of judgment and at the same time the PM is agreed by Alexander and the PM himself to have made a major error in appointing PeterM, against much senior advice, but unlike others he is staying on and blaming everyone else.
3) Unable to deal with the 'Casablanca' point. Everyone, including the PM, knows the PM was not shocked, angry or surprised at finding out that PeterM had security vetting problems. He was angry that it came out inconveniently due to parliament doing its job for the public.
Alexander is usually good, today he was terrible because it was so obvious he was being told to make bricks without straw. Worth a listen.
Boris was obviously chaotic - it was his personality - but where is the evidence that Starmer isn't just as chaotic, but with the chaos hidden behind a grey screen? He certainly doesn't seem to have a better relationship with the truth.
"That which has been is what will be, That which is done is what will be done, And there is nothing new under the sun."
"Would you mind telling me how the plant can function on minus 10,000 workers?"
"I don't know Chris, you tell me!"
Such trials are intended to test only safety of the novel treatment; that it has shown what appear to be remarkable results is fortuitous, but strongly suggests the treatment has efficacy.
As I said, there's a PII trial already ongoing.
Biontech has a $26bn market cap; they're not doing this to fish for a grant.
This one from 4th Feb is interesting:
Badenoch:
‘Did the official security vetting that he received mention Mandelson’s ongoing relationship with the paedophile Jeffrey Epstein?’
Starmer:
‘Yes, it did’
As we discussed in some detail under Fishing's last (very good) header, debunking a study doesn't disprove the negative effects of Brexit; it just debunks the study. Can you present any study demonstrating the opposite ?
The argument that we have lost GDP, employment or investment simply because we have left the EU is frankly implausible. If we have under performed (and we have although no more than most of the EU and less than Germany) it is because our leadership have made poor choices, have failed to address the significant weaknesses in our economy that had developed whilst in the EU and have run a sub-optimal macroeconomic policy. These are our choices and those we have elected of both stripes have made them.
This government came to power committed to growth. This was necessary because they had ambitions on public spending, particularly benefits and health, that could only be paid for by that growth. But the wish is not the deed. Almost nothing they have done since coming to power is habile to promote growth and much of what they have done has been negative. To take an obvious example @Fishing notes that unemployment has crept back up again. Is this Brexit or is it the consequences of increasing the cost of Employers NI, the NMW and squeezing marginal businesses with ever higher taxes? I know what my money is on.
Apologies if already posted but More in Common have MRPs for Holyrood and the Senedd out on their website.
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/latest-insights/
Fieldwork is over a long period however - late Jan and early Feb to last week
https://x.com/jamesmelville/status/2046106915218796972
But beyond that, I’m struggling to see how that will take him more than a few weeks.
He will almost certainly give Labour a good bounce though. Any chance he does a Carney and immediately calls an election?
To compare the two is completely insane.
But Johnson certainly legitimised a lot of what has come since.
William Hill's owner Evoke has confirmed it is in talks with Greek lottery and gambling operator Bally's Intralot over a potential £225 million takeover.
Evoke said on Monday morning that the offer was at a price of 50 pence per share and expected to comprise an all-share combination with a partial cash alternative.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/william-hill-owner-evoke-confirms-talks-with-ballys-intralot-over-225-million-takeover-akjUd5n3kcY6/
Closing 200 betting shops has already been announced.
So we need a study that *identifies* effects from Brexit.
Tom Fletcher, UN Humanitarian Chief & friend of Olly Robbins, tells @BBCr4today he’s spoken to Robbins. Describes him a man with of integrity with ‘public service stitched into his DNA’
‘He’s pretty tough character but he’s heartbroken’ > As someone plugged into civil service said to me y’day over the mood in civil service: “Everyone from the top tier to the juniors are in despair”
Nine of the thirty wards in Bradford won't be counted until the Saturday.
The best we will be able to say about the impact of Brexit is "we don't know". But 8% - or anything close - looks difficult to stand up.
These will include speeding up the warm homes plan to encourage the rapid take-up of solar panels and electric vehicles; expanding the use of solar on public land; and delinking gas and electricity prices, to cut consumers’ bills.
An excellent idea for once. But we still need to open up North Sea drilling as well.
John Healey is probably the best of a bad bunch at the moment, Burnham would obviously have been a contender but he’s still stuck in Manchester.
As the briefing continues be anonymous only - much to the despair of much of the media - Sir Keir is safe. When people "come over the top" things will change.
He sees out 2026.
What’s their excuse for reasoning behind taking so long?
The first was by the Propriety and Ethics Team (PET) based in the Cabinet Office. This team conducted a due diligence check before his appointment was publicly announced in December 2024. I think this is the report that Starmer is referring to which mentioned his ongoing relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.
The second was by the United Kingdom Security Vetting (UKSV) agency, also situated within the Cabinet Office, but different from the PET. This was an intensive, independent investigation into his personal life, finances, and associations which took much longer and recommended that he be denied security clearance, and was over ridden by Robbins.
I don't think Starmer (or Jones) was aware of the details of these two processes including the right of the FO to over ride the conclusions of the UKSV.
They are both official security vetting processes.
I don’t think you need lots of experience of government given we’ve had that in recent years and it hasn’t counted for much .
This kind of thinking ignores the experience of thousands of UK businesses. There were genuine, tangible trade barriers put up as a result of Brexit.
Our politicians could (would) have made poor choices whether we were in or out of the EU, most of which remained in our government’s hands. You could argue that we haven’t made the most of Brexit opportunities. But the only Brexit we can judge is the one we have.
There’s some import/export friction and paperwork at the border, but also some freedom from not being involved in new EU regulations, specifically those around emerging technology.
Or even his current one.
But these effects will be tiny and completely lost in the noise of poor policy making, adverse economic shocks such as Covid, the Ukraine and now Iran and our somewhat patchy responses to these challenges. We need to move on and focus on better performance in the future based on policies designed to achieve growth and productivity. No more excuses.
Counter-terror officers investigating if Iranian proxies are behind attacks on Jewish community in the capital
...
...
The Met said the incidents were “similar in nature” and said Iranian proxy group Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia, the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right, have claimed responsibility for most of the attacks online.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/london-arson-attacks-jewish-community-iran-proxy-met-police-b1279263.html
My view is that he'll ride this out, but may well choose to go before the GE. But when he does go, he'll have a clear view of who he wants his successor to be, and will make plans to get his way. So, if he thinks Burnham is Labour's best chance at the GE, he can make this happen. If he doesn't, he'll try to pave the way for his chosen successor. Darren Jones, maybe? I'm pretty confident that he won't want Rayner succeeding him.
UK unemployment today is in fact little different to 2016, 5.2% to 4.9% then and most of the slightly higher rate now can be attributed to the tax rises and costs and burdens imposed on business by this Labour government not Brexit. Indeed when Rishi left office in 2024, 4 years since Brexit, unemployment at 4.4% was actually lower than in 2016. Had we had a No Deal Brexit then that may have had a more damaging effect on the economy but we didn't and we left in early 2020 with a trade deal with the EU
Ridge "Why did the govt announce that Mandelson had got the job before doing the vetting"
Alexander "The process.. was one we inherited.. appts could be made ahead of developed vetting.."
Ridge "Could feels an important word.. why did you announce the appt before the vetting?"
The latest research is usually focussed on specific mutations within a cancer cell line. KRAS mutations affect signalling in tumours - shutting it down will stop the pro-cancer signalling.
And finding ways to get the immune system to identify and destroy cancer cells is probably the best treatment of all. Its hard to do as cancer cells derive from your own cells, but if you can do it...
"The UK’s recent trade performance in services has been much better than that for goods. UK goods exports to the EU fell sharply in January 2021 after the end of the Brexit transition period, before recovering strongly in February 2021. Goods exports to the EU remain below their pre-pandemic/Brexit level, however: in 2024, goods exports to the EU were 18% below their 2019 level in real terms. It is important to point out, however, that goods exports to the EU were growing slowly before Brexit and the pandemic. In addition, exports to non-EU countries in 2024 were also 14% below their 2019 level in real terms.
Services have performed better
UK exports of services to both EU and non-EU countries fell in 2020 but have grown strongly since then. In 2024, UK exports of services to the EU were 19% above their 2019 level in real terms. Exports to non-EU countries were 23% above their 2019 level."
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/
In short the pre-Brexit trends have continued. Making things in this country at a profit is very difficult. Service industries do much better. We need to look at the policy mix that makes manufacturing here so hard. Do we need to increase the incentive to invest and train? Do we need to focus our education systems more clearly on producing what industry actually wants? Do we need to improve infrastructure to make the moving of goods easier?
Simply saying "Brexit" as if it is an answer fails to acknowledge the problems, problems that existed as members and still exist.
After all, there was a time when no one was deemed capable of replacing Thatcher or Blair or even Cameron, let alone Johnson. Starmer would be the first Labour PM to be forced out - we can probably argue Wilson and Blair more or less went on their terms and it was certainly more voluntary than the public defenestrations of Thatcher, May, Johnson and Truss to name but four.
The other side of is who would want to be Prime Minister? I suspect there are no shortage of applicants - after all, 360 people are trying to be Newham Councillors which is a world removed.
Trying to perpetuate the sense of "crisis" is what news organisations like Sky (who have to regurgitate this nonsense every hour) and those not well disposed to the current incumbent PM or party of Government will attempt for the next 48-72 hours but absent a "smoking gun", it's hard to see how Starmer doesn't survive unless he chooses to step down and politicians rarely walk away from power - real or imagined.
The only other option would be some form of mutiny within Cabinet what is what usually does for failed Conservative Prime Ministers but untiland unless we see a significant resignation, it all looks reasonable for Starmer.
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/latest-insights/more-in-common-s-2026-holyrood-mrp/
In Wales, Plaid would be largest party in the Senedd on 30 seats but well short of the 49 seats needed for a majority. Given Reform is also projected to be the main opposition in Wales with 28 seats, Plaid would need the support of third placed Labour with 24 forecast seats in the 96 seat Senedd for a majority and to get legislation through
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/latest-insights/more-in-common-s-2026-senedd-mrp/
I think there's at least a decent case that this ~1pp increase in the unemployment rate is attributable to Brexit. It doesn't account for all of the extra employment the report said there would be, but I think there's an effect there.
I also think that, if the economy had done better, particularly in terms of productivity, then this would have supported higher wages, and so you'd expect this to increase the incentives for people to participate in the labour market, and thereby increase employment that way.
It's an optimistic scenario, but I think it means that a Brexit hit of somewhere between 0 and 8% is plausible.
Liz Kendall, much as i dislike her, was better yesterday because shes good at making everything she says seem incredibly, almost pantomimely, earnest.
Tsunami warning out.
That'd be all we need
Personally I think Starmer is more of a through back to previous times. Unlike Johnson he doesn't tell obvious lies, but he tries his lawyerly wiles to cover half-truths and deception.
The PM/government didn't exactly go out of its way to clear up all the confusions which may have arisen from Barnesian's interesting point.
We now have a 3 way tussle:
Indy parties (SNP, Green) where the Greens are only running in a handful of seats
Unionist parties (Lab, Con, LD) running everywhere and splitting the vote
Fuker parties (Reform, Scottish Family) where everyone hates them regardless of where they stand on Indy
If the fuck the fukers momentum continues to build I think we'll see more trad unionists pick up more list votes. How you govern? If this MRP was the result then Swinney remains First Minister and basically challenges the others to vote him down, knowing they can't coalesce into an opposing block. Reform would be official opposition until natural attrition (resignation by scandal) reduces their number low enough.
What happens to the economy? Services? Infrastructure. Nothing. It gets worse - which suits the SNP as they will continue to blame the English for the mess.
I wrote to the PM reminding him of his obligations under the Ministerial Code.
He’s at best been recklessly negligent, and at worst completely dishonest. It's time for the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.
Parliament and the British people deserve nothing less.