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Anecdotes and all that, but FWIW I've only met one declared LibDem in the last month's intensive canvassing, and he wasn't quite sure. I think they must have some latent support that will come out in practice, but it's certainly conceivable that they'll be in low single percentages in lots of seats.Pulpstar said:
In the 14 seats polled where the Lib Dems don't have current incumbency for Ashcroft they are on an average of 1.92%. That's in the "In your constituency" question. They go from 33% to 4% in Glasgow North.
So I think 2% is a realistic figure for all non incumbent seats to start from with the Lib Dems in Scotland to work from.
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Carlotta
Thanks for those. I actually didn't like either of them. Murphy's was dismal lacking in ambition but as a tick box for its messaging they were all there. It also surprisingly lacked any Braveheart which the Scots love.
The Tory one started well but just as I started warming to her she reeled off a whole list of Thatcherisms which are all the reasons I and I suspect most Scots don't like the Tory Party.
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Others might call reliance on such diversions from linear progressions as magic.... Even tinier amounts of additional wasted votes across the board will wipe out a raft of current LibDem seats.TheScreamingEagles said:
the Lib Dems could get some very impressive seat efficiency.Pulpstar said:
If you can do as badly as the LDs seem to be on course to in non target areas like Motherwell & Wishaw then you can achieve an almost SNP like efficiency with the UK wide picture.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been tabulating this, I've worked out, if we assume a 2010 type turnout, and the Lib Dems poll say 10%, that's about just under 3 million Lib Dem voters, that means they could poll around 28,000 in 45 seats, that leaves 1.7 million votes to be "wasted"Pulpstar said:
In the 14 seats polled where the Lib Dems don't have current incumbency for Ashcroft they are on an average of 1.92%. That's in the "In your constituency" question. They go from 33% to 4% in Glasgow North.Financier said:Yesterday, OGH said,"The LDs are on 36% - 9% ahead of the Tories - in the key battlegrounds that they will be defending."
As I am struggling to see how that would come about in relation to the mainly 6%-10% polling GB figures for the LDs, I have been looking back to the 2010 data for each of the GB countries.
Scotland: In 2010 LDs won 11 seats on 18.9% ( 465,471 votes) of the Scotland vote. In those 11seats they had 186,856 votes in total which is 40% of LD vote in Scotland. Of those seats only three: Gordon, Berwickshire and Dumbarton East had a lower constituency share of the vote than 36%.
However, presuming that the turnout in 2015 is the same as 2010, if the LD vote in Scotland is halved (9.5%) in 2015, then the available LD vote for all the Scottish constituencies would be ~233,000. Thus if they kept the same vote for the 11 seats they are defending, then for all the other seats in Scotland they would have just (233,000-186,856) = 46,144 votes.
Is this scenario realistic?
I will give the figures for England and Wales later.
So I think 2% is a realistic figure for all non incumbent seats to start from with the Lib Dems in Scotland to work from.
It also relies on voters in LibDem seats to be saying "Like everyone else, I think Clegg is a loathsome piece of shit who I'd string up if I had half a chance, and his party of pathetic Tory-enablers should be sharing a lamp-post. But, yeah, of course I'll still vote for them again in May...."
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Labour supporters are being pragmatic in Lib/Con seats.MarqueeMark said:
Others might call reliance on such diversions from linear progressions as magic.... Even tinier amounts of additional wasted votes across the board will wipe out a raft of current LibDem seats.TheScreamingEagles said:
the Lib Dems could get some very impressive seat efficiency.Pulpstar said:
If you can do as badly as the LDs seem to be on course to in non target areas like Motherwell & Wishaw then you can achieve an almost SNP like efficiency with the UK wide picture.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've been tabulating this, I've worked out, if we assume a 2010 type turnout, and the Lib Dems poll say 10%, that's about just under 3 million Lib Dem voters, that means they could poll around 28,000 in 45 seats, that leaves 1.7 million votes to be "wasted"Pulpstar said:
In the 14 seats polled where the Lib Dems don't have current incumbency for Ashcroft they are on an average of 1.92%. That's in the "In your constituency" question. They go from 33% to 4% in Glasgow North.Financier said:Yesterday, OGH said,"The LDs are on 36% - 9% ahead of the Tories - in the key battlegrounds that they will be defending."
As I am struggling to see how that would come about in relation to the mainly 6%-10% polling GB figures for the LDs, I have been looking back to the 2010 data for each of the GB countries.
Scotland: In 2010 LDs won 11 seats on 18.9% ( 465,471 votes) of the Scotland vote. In those 11seats they had 186,856 votes in total which is 40% of LD vote in Scotland. Of those seats only three: Gordon, Berwickshire and Dumbarton East had a lower constituency share of the vote than 36%.
However, presuming that the turnout in 2015 is the same as 2010, if the LD vote in Scotland is halved (9.5%) in 2015, then the available LD vote for all the Scottish constituencies would be ~233,000. Thus if they kept the same vote for the 11 seats they are defending, then for all the other seats in Scotland they would have just (233,000-186,856) = 46,144 votes.
Is this scenario realistic?
I will give the figures for England and Wales later.
So I think 2% is a realistic figure for all non incumbent seats to start from with the Lib Dems in Scotland to work from.
It also relies on voters in LibDem seats to be saying "Like everyone else, I think Clegg is a loathsome piece of shit who I'd string up if I had half a chance, and his party of pathetic Tory-enablers should be sharing a lamp-post. But, yeah, of course I'll still vote for them again in May...."
More Tory MPs means less chance of Labour being in government.0 -
Do you mean Nick that you personally have met or the canvassing teams? I've said before there may be an element of 'shy Libdems' out there, who have a grudging regard for the way Nick Clegg has stuck at it - who certainly wouldn't want to get into an argument with the next Labour MP.NickPalmer said:
Anecdotes and all that, but FWIW I've only met one declared LibDem in the last month's intensive canvassing, and he wasn't quite sure. I think they must have some latent support that will come out in practice, but it's certainly conceivable that they'll be in low single percentages in lots of seats.Pulpstar said:
In the 14 seats polled where the Lib Dems don't have current incumbency for Ashcroft they are on an average of 1.92%. That's in the "In your constituency" question. They go from 33% to 4% in Glasgow North.
So I think 2% is a realistic figure for all non incumbent seats to start from with the Lib Dems in Scotland to work from.
Mind you at the moment, as far as I am aware, there is no LibDem in Broxtowe for them to be shy about!!0 -
Interesting places, LibDem seats. Where loathing and pragmatism are happy bed-fellows....TheScreamingEagles said:
Labour supporters are being pragmatic in Lib/Con seats.
More Tory MPs means less chance of Labour being in government.
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In one scenario I've modelled, the Lib Dems get 60% of their total vote in about 50 constituencies. And 40% in 580 seats.0
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Good Moaning All.
There is no doubt that OGH's obsession with the SNP and Scotland is driving all of us to discard our kilts and throw our bagpipes into the trash can.
I've only got my sporran left.
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Says he who won't post a prediction....malcolmg said:
keep backslidingCarlottaVance said:
Why should I be scared - you're the one who won't post a prediction - if you had the technical competence you could search for yourself - but evidently its beyond you!malcolmg said:
Scared to post it again thenCarlottaVance said:
My prediction is there - and has been since yesterday - unlike either of yours!malcolmg said:
Should get some embarrassed silence for a time I reckon.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm sad to see you're unable to kick the habit of lurking shiftily around Nat websites.CarlottaVance said:
Oh omniscient one - why not share your prediction for number of SNP seats?malcolmg said:Previous thread with a few exceptions was just guff by people who obviously have no idea what they are talking about.
Will you be brave enough to make a prediction, after your catastrophic referendum campaign?
Will you be as 'brave' as "comical" James Kelly, late of this parish, on 53 for the SNP?
Will you be brave enough to post at all?
Or are you just all mouth and no trousers?
What is your prediction as a matter of interest? Wouldn't want to think you're someone who (only) snipes impotently from the sidelines.
Another Nat fail..
.....oh, and I found comical James prediction (at least he has the courage of his convictions) by searching for the most deluded optimistic SNP prediction - he's 3 short of the highest.....
Should get some embarrassed silence for a time I reckon.0 -
Carlotta
In case you think this Braveheart thing is new this is an ad I shot in Glasgow 20 years ago and looking at it again Murphy could have done worse than run it with the Labour Party logo at the end (even the music works!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIIFcBfnSJE&feature=youtu.be0 -
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I'm sticking with my model. A 25% drop in LibDem votes where their MP is standing again, a 33% drop where there is no incumbency. I still think that a very sizeable divergence from a linear progression when the party has gone from a 70-plus percent linear drop, the LibDems having gone from 23% to 6% nationally.TheScreamingEagles said:In one scenario I've modelled, the Lib Dems get 60% of their total vote in about 50 constituencies. And 40% in 580 seats.
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Two RAF jets scrambled after Russian aircraft seen off Cornish coast:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-315308400 -
I'm not a very scary person to confess LibDemism to! But I meant canvassing teams. But to be fair note that we often meet someone who says "Probably not Labour, not sure who though", and some of those will end up as LibDems (though I think they're often shy UKIP).rottenborough said:
Do you mean Nick that you personally have met or the canvassing teams? I've said before there may be an element of 'shy Libdems' out there, who have a grudging regard for the way Nick Clegg has stuck at it - who certainly wouldn't want to get into an argument with the next Labour MP.
Mind you at the moment, as far as I am aware, there is no LibDem in Broxtowe for them to be shy about!!
I assume that the LibDems will simply put up a popular local councillor in the end - seems their best bet. But I do know they plan not to campaign actively at GE level - there will be a freepost leaflet and that's about it. They'll fight hard for their council seats.
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Roger... stands the test of time and new techniques..Thought the sound of the studs were similar to high heels on a marble floor...I suppose that might account for the teams performance.0
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I'm struggling to see much reason, if any, for the SNP to poll less in percentage terms than Yes.
It seems a matter of straightforward logic that if you wanted Out last September, this Westminster election is another opportunity to turn that screw and further that cause.0 -
The CoE seems to have reds under every bed at the moment, Guido just noticed that the ABC's parliamentary affairs secretary used to work for Stephen Pound and Paul Boateng.
http://order-order.com/2015/02/19/exposed-another-red-spinning-for-god/0 -
I presume these canvassing teams of yours also found that the Lib Dems would also lose all their local councillors back in 2011 . how accurate were they then ?NickPalmer said:
I'm not a very scary person to confess LibDemism to! But I meant canvassing teams. But to be fair note that we often meet someone who says "Probably not Labour, not sure who though", and some of those will end up as LibDems (though I think they're often shy UKIP).rottenborough said:
Do you mean Nick that you personally have met or the canvassing teams? I've said before there may be an element of 'shy Libdems' out there, who have a grudging regard for the way Nick Clegg has stuck at it - who certainly wouldn't want to get into an argument with the next Labour MP.
Mind you at the moment, as far as I am aware, there is no LibDem in Broxtowe for them to be shy about!!
I assume that the LibDems will simply put up a popular local councillor in the end - seems their best bet. But I do know they plan not to campaign actively at GE level - there will be a freepost leaflet and that's about it. They'll fight hard for their council seats.0 -
Not everyone who voted in September is eligible to vote in May.chestnut said:I'm struggling to see much reason, if any, for the SNP to poll less in percentage terms than Yes.
It seems a matter of straightforward logic that if you wanted Out last September, this Westminster election is another opportunity to turn that screw and further that cause.
Plus differential turnout might be an issue.
I can't see turnout being close to 85% in Scotland in May0 -
'Seen'? More piss poor reporting.Casino_Royale said:Two RAF jets scrambled after Russian aircraft seen off Cornish coast:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-315308400 -
Ah the good old quick cut vignette - wears well!Roger said:Carlotta
In case you think this Braveheart thing is new this is an ad I shot in Glasgow 20 years ago and looking at it again Murphy could have done worse than run it with the Labour Party logo at the end (even the music works!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIIFcBfnSJE&feature=youtu.be
There may just be one teeny tiny problem for Murphy's Labour......the colour of the team's shirt!0 -
How many 16 and 17 yr old YES voters does this exclude ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not everyone who voted in September is eligible to vote in May.chestnut said:I'm struggling to see much reason, if any, for the SNP to poll less in percentage terms than Yes.
It seems a matter of straightforward logic that if you wanted Out last September, this Westminster election is another opportunity to turn that screw and further that cause.
Plus differential turnout might be an issue.
I can't see turnout being close to 85% in Scotland in May0 -
I think the motivation must be strong, so don't really expect the kind of differential turnout the rest of the country will see.TheScreamingEagles said:Not everyone who voted in September is eligible to vote in May.
Plus differential turnout might be an issue.
I can't see turnout being close to 85% in Scotland in May
Looking back through the last Ipsos, SLAB seems as pensioner dependent as the Tories are supposed to be.
They are massively behind among the public sector, with people with families and with renters. They have had their core taken.0 -
Doddy
"Roger... stands the test of time and new techniques..Thought the sound of the studs were similar to high heels on a marble floor...I suppose that might account for the teams performance."
John Woods did the sound and he'd have loved the idea of being able to say he got a sound of football boots using stillettos (which he probably did)0 -
Hell. Pick the bones out of this mess http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/18/tony-blair-advising-serbian-government
Tony Blair has added Serbia to the list of countries he is paid to advise, despite his role as the chief proponent of the bombing of Belgrade in 1999.
Blair, Serbia, UAE, Palestine, an EU membership campaign, the middle east peace process, and a power play for leader of the Palestinian authority all in one big ball of fun.
Blair will counsel the Serbian prime minister, Aleksandar Vucic, who was information minister during the war and was once such an outspoken critic of the British politician that he was listed as an editor of a book titled English Gay Fart Tony Blair.
Now Vucic and Blair find themselves on the same side, under a contract sealed by Blair’s private consultancy to set up a “delivery unit” paid for, according to Serbian official sources, by the United Arab Emirates.0 -
At the very least some of those voters will be voting Green.chestnut said:I'm struggling to see much reason, if any, for the SNP to poll less in percentage terms than Yes.
It seems a matter of straightforward logic that if you wanted Out last September, this Westminster election is another opportunity to turn that screw and further that cause.0 -
After Fallons remarks yesterday re Russia and the Baltic states, is our Defence Sec, so called, trying to fan the flames of war?Casino_Royale said:Two RAF jets scrambled after Russian aircraft seen off Cornish coast:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-315308400 -
Not sure but I was also thinking of those Scots who moved up to Scotland for several months just so they could vote in the Indyref.Pulpstar said:
How many 16 and 17 yr old YES voters does this exclude ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not everyone who voted in September is eligible to vote in May.chestnut said:I'm struggling to see much reason, if any, for the SNP to poll less in percentage terms than Yes.
It seems a matter of straightforward logic that if you wanted Out last September, this Westminster election is another opportunity to turn that screw and further that cause.
Plus differential turnout might be an issue.
I can't see turnout being close to 85% in Scotland in May0 -
Count 298Pulpstar said:Cons (Avg) 284.34
Lab (Avg) 280.71
Lib Dem (Avg) 27.31
UKIP (Avg) 4.48
Green (Avg) 0.99
SNP (Avg) 32.86
Cons (Avg) 284.34
Lab (Avg) 280.77
Lib Dem (Avg) 27.31
UKIP (Avg) 4.46
Green (Avg) 0.99
SNP (Avg) 32.930 -
Nigel Dodds gets to decide who is PM on those numbers.bigjohnowls said:
Count 298Pulpstar said:Cons (Avg) 284.34
Lab (Avg) 280.71
Lib Dem (Avg) 27.31
UKIP (Avg) 4.48
Green (Avg) 0.99
SNP (Avg) 32.86
Cons (Avg) 284.34
Lab (Avg) 280.77
Lib Dem (Avg) 27.31
UKIP (Avg) 4.46
Green (Avg) 0.99
SNP (Avg) 32.930 -
Roger..Never trust a sound man..aka..Decibel Daisies.0
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''Yo Putin!''MikeK said:
After Hammonds and Fallons remarks yesterday re Russia and the Baltic states, is our Defence Sec, so called, trying to fan the flames of war?Casino_Royale said:Two RAF jets scrambled after Russian aircraft seen off Cornish coast:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-315308400 -
15 minutes to go till Ashcroft poll out....0
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What we need now is BobaFret to use his multiple Logins!bigjohnowls said:
Count 298Pulpstar said:Cons (Avg) 284.34
Lab (Avg) 280.71
Lib Dem (Avg) 27.31
UKIP (Avg) 4.48
Green (Avg) 0.99
SNP (Avg) 32.86
Cons (Avg) 284.34
Lab (Avg) 280.77
Lib Dem (Avg) 27.31
UKIP (Avg) 4.46
Green (Avg) 0.99
SNP (Avg) 32.93
Tower Hamlets!!
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Mike K...Were Hammond and Fallon flying the bombers.0
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You have to wonder.MikeK said:
After Hammonds and Fallons remarks yesterday re Russia and the Baltic states, is our Defence Sec, so called, trying to fan the flames of war?Casino_Royale said:Two RAF jets scrambled after Russian aircraft seen off Cornish coast:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31530840
In fairness to the Russkies, they're not doing anything that they haven't done most weeks for the last 60 years. It's odd that the media are now reporting every escorted flight or shipping movement that previously would have gone unremarked.
And the suggestion that they were 'seen' off the Cornish coast, as if their appearance was a surprise, is laughable. The flights are picked up on long range defence radar, and trailed by aircraft from NATO partners before being handed over the RAF, who will hand over when they leave UKADGE.0 -
New meme
EICIPMINDD
Ed is crap is PM if Nigel Dodds decides.0 -
Carlotta
"There may just be one teeny tiny problem for Murphy's Labour......the colour of the team's shirt!"
Indeed .....and the most featured headless players was Scott Hastings who I believe is a Tory0 -
2h15m to go until Betfair Sportsbook move their pricesPaul_Mid_Beds said:15 minutes to go till Ashcroft poll out....
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How on earth is he fanning the flames of war? Putin has kidnapped an Estonian border guard, which he has yet to return, is making no serious attempt to end the conflict in Ukraine and is regularly testing the UK air defences on an almost weekly basis.MikeK said:
After Fallons remarks yesterday re Russia and the Baltic states, is our Defence Sec, so called, trying to fan the flames of war?Casino_Royale said:Two RAF jets scrambled after Russian aircraft seen off Cornish coast:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31530840
What do you think we should do? Shut up and be quiet about it, and hope nothing happens?0 -
The SNP's success will come in harvesting votes from the No, but... voters - those who didn't want full independence but want to screw the best possible deal for Scotland from Westminster. If SLAB loses them, then it is wipeout time.chestnut said:I'm struggling to see much reason, if any, for the SNP to poll less in percentage terms than Yes.
It seems a matter of straightforward logic that if you wanted Out last September, this Westminster election is another opportunity to turn that screw and further that cause.
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Agreed. Every appeasement, every time we turn a blind eye, every little thing Putin gets away just enpowers and encourages the psychotic bastard.Casino_Royale said:
How on earth is he fanning the flames of war? Putin has kidnapped an Estonian border guard, which he has yet to return, is making no serious attempt to end the conflict in Ukraine and is regularly testing the UK air defences on an almost weekly basis.MikeK said:
After Fallons remarks yesterday re Russia and the Baltic states, is our Defence Sec, so called, trying to fan the flames of war?Casino_Royale said:Two RAF jets scrambled after Russian aircraft seen off Cornish coast:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31530840
What do you think we should do? Shut up and be quiet about it, and hope nothing happens?
[I guess I can cross falseflag off my Christmas card list now]0 -
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Ignore Lord A and follow the PB competition. I've not entered yetbigjohnowls said:
What we need now is BobaFret to use his multiple Logins!bigjohnowls said:
Count 298Pulpstar said:Cons (Avg) 284.34
Lab (Avg) 280.71
Lib Dem (Avg) 27.31
UKIP (Avg) 4.48
Green (Avg) 0.99
SNP (Avg) 32.86
Cons (Avg) 284.34
Lab (Avg) 280.77
Lib Dem (Avg) 27.31
UKIP (Avg) 4.46
Green (Avg) 0.99
SNP (Avg) 32.93
Tower Hamlets!!
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He's tweeting them. Tories holding off UKIP in their big challenge seats.0
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What will the Good Lord bring today ?0
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What a tease Lord Ashcroft is.0
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Plenty of ammo there for local Tories in tactical anti-UKIP voting....0
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That would have been about three people surely? Unless of course a lot of exiles just registered at addresses of friends and family for the duration.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not sure but I was also thinking of those Scots who moved up to Scotland for several months just so they could vote in the Indyref.Pulpstar said:
How many 16 and 17 yr old YES voters does this exclude ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not everyone who voted in September is eligible to vote in May.chestnut said:I'm struggling to see much reason, if any, for the SNP to poll less in percentage terms than Yes.
It seems a matter of straightforward logic that if you wanted Out last September, this Westminster election is another opportunity to turn that screw and further that cause.
Plus differential turnout might be an issue.
I can't see turnout being close to 85% in Scotland in May
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Two easy blue holds, two effective ties. Waiting for MikeK to tell us why the poll is wrong in 3, 2, 1...0
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And I thought Boston and Skegness was nailed-on UKIP gain as the Tories have left the field of battle?
Sticking with just Carswell as the lone UKIP MP in May...0 -
How does building 130,000 tonnes of aircraft carriers, spending upwards of £15bn on planes and £3.5bn on 600 AFVs equal 'salami slicing'.Casino_Royale said:Salami slices - even our Defence secretary now recognises it:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31528981
BTW the Scout AFV represents' the biggest single contract for AFVs for the British Army since the 1980s.' Some slice of salami.
What you should be talking about is the total cobblers that Labour made over 13 years of defence procurement.0 -
So thats at least 4 tory seats which were chimpanzee in a blue rosette secure that are now wafer thin marginals that need large amounts of resources deployed to that will mean less campaigning elsewhere.MaxPB said:
And quite feasible in all of them for UKIP to win the seat.0 -
How would the DUP and the SNP likely get along if they were sat around the table together?Anorak said:0 -
Mutual support to get what they both want, I suspect. More parades and more money respectively.FrankBooth said:
How would the DUP and the SNP likely get along if they were sat around the table together?Anorak said:0 -
Under 5.5 UKIP seats, evens with Ladbrokes. Though some Lab-UKIP polling would be nice too.0
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@Holbornlolz: LMAO
Labour's biggest non union donor is "tax dodge advising" PwC
http://t.co/REZyYtDban0 -
As you sow, so you shall you reap.Scott_P said:@Holbornlolz: LMAO
Labour's biggest non union donor is "tax dodge advising" PwC
http://t.co/REZyYtDban0 -
I was talking about Putin's approach to extending the scope and power of the Russian state over neighbouring sovereign states, including Baltic States that are NATO members.Flightpath said:
How does building 130,000 tonnes of aircraft carriers, spending upwards of £15bn on planes and £3.5bn on 600 AFVs equal 'salami slicing'.Casino_Royale said:Salami slices - even our Defence secretary now recognises it:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31528981
BTW the Scout AFV represents' the biggest single contract for AFVs for the British Army since the 1980s.' Some slice of salami.
What you should be talking about is the total cobblers that Labour made over 13 years of defence procurement.
Bad decisions taken under the last Labour government on defence do not abdicate the current Conservative led government from taking the right ones now.0 -
Wishful thinking. Some of us are working hard to keep out the chimpanzees in purple rosettes.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
So thats at least 4 tory seats which were chimpanzee in a blue rosette secure that are now wafer thin marginals that need large amounts of resources deployed to that will mean less campaigning elsewhere.MaxPB said:
And quite feasible in all of them for UKIP to win the seat.
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Labour down to third in three of the Essex/Cambs seats, repeating the same pattern of Clacton, Rochester and Newark. Vote share down as well.
More evidence that they are racking up big numbers in regions that they are already strong in, but getting nowhere fast, elsewhere.0 -
I have no doubt that Fallon is getting bellicose and roaring like the lion he ain't because it looks good on the BBC and a GE is near.Casino_Royale said:
How on earth is he fanning the flames of war? Putin has kidnapped an Estonian border guard, which he has yet to return, is making no serious attempt to end the conflict in Ukraine and is regularly testing the UK air defences on an almost weekly basis.MikeK said:
After Fallons remarks yesterday re Russia and the Baltic states, is our Defence Sec, so called, trying to fan the flames of war?Casino_Royale said:Two RAF jets scrambled after Russian aircraft seen off Cornish coast:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31530840
What do you think we should do? Shut up and be quiet about it, and hope nothing happens?
No one in Europe is ready for a general war. Britain and the rest of the EU have been cutting defence spending for years and are pretty well down to the bone. 20,000 British troops if sent to an eastern European war, will just be cannon-fodder.
Russia, while having a large army is also in the middle of replacing outdated weapon systems, which will take another 2 years to complete.
The USA under Obo is cutting defence spending, has sacked its best generals and admirals - replacing them with Obama arse lickers, and is withdrawing from the world into isolation.
Big talk is just that; big talk. However, it wont stop local nut cases from trying to cause trouble. And the middle-east could flare up at the drop of a "kova tembel".0 -
What if you voted yes, but don't want your general election vote to be seen to advocate anti-"austerity" nonsense or to go to a party which might prop up Labour?chestnut said:I'm struggling to see much reason, if any, for the SNP to poll less in percentage terms than Yes.
It seems a matter of straightforward logic that if you wanted Out last September, this Westminster election is another opportunity to turn that screw and further that cause.0 -
Or you could look at the ComRes marginals poll that had a 9% Tory>Lab swing. It could be wrong and/or things could change between now and the election. The idea that Ed Miliband is core vote fodder and it's his own seats where he'll be putting on most votes is not backed by anything I've seen.chestnut said:Labour down to third in three of the Essex/Cambs seats, repeating the same pattern of Clacton, Rochester and Newark. Vote share down as well.
More evidence that they are racking up big numbers in regions that they are already strong in, but getting nowhere fast, elsewhere.0 -
You are not very good at reading the results of these polls are you ? In one seat UKIP arePaul_Mid_Beds said:
So thats at least 4 tory seats which were chimpanzee in a blue rosette secure that are now wafer thin marginals that need large amounts of resources deployed to that will mean less campaigning elsewhere.MaxPB said:
And quite feasible in all of them for UKIP to win the seat.
no hopers miles behind . In Boston and Skegness ,a previous poll had them in the lead and now they are trailing . UKIP fewer than 4 seats overall the clear bet .0 -
Comres marginals polls are 25 people per constituency, and 15 of the 40 seats are Labour held.FrankBooth said:Or you could look at the ComRes marginals poll that had a 9% Tory>Lab swing. It could be wrong and/or things could change between now and the election. The idea that Ed Miliband is core vote fodder and it's his own seats where he'll be putting on most votes is not backed by anything I've seen.
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So, because the West is weak and cutting defence spending we should just give up trying to mount any defence at all?MikeK said:
I have no doubt that Fallon is getting bellicose and roaring like the lion he ain't because it looks good on the BBC and a GE is near.Casino_Royale said:
How on earth is he fanning the flames of war? Putin has kidnapped an Estonian border guard, which he has yet to return, is making no serious attempt to end the conflict in Ukraine and is regularly testing the UK air defences on an almost weekly basis.MikeK said:
After Fallons remarks yesterday re Russia and the Baltic states, is our Defence Sec, so called, trying to fan the flames of war?Casino_Royale said:Two RAF jets scrambled after Russian aircraft seen off Cornish coast:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31530840
What do you think we should do? Shut up and be quiet about it, and hope nothing happens?
No one in Europe is ready for a general war. Britain and the rest of the EU have been cutting defence spending for years and are pretty well down to the bone. 20,000 British troops if sent to an eastern European war, will just be cannon-fodder.
Russia, while having a large army is also in the middle of replacing outdated weapon systems, which will take another 2 years to complete.
The USA under Obo is cutting defence spending, has sacked its best generals and admirals - replacing them with Obama arse lickers, and is withdrawing from the world into isolation.
Big talk is just that; big talk. However, it wont stop local nut cases from trying to cause trouble. And the middle-east could flare up at the drop of a "kova tembel".
I'm sorry, but that's a ludicrous position. UKIP really have to come up a credible defence policy that is based on more than sticking their fingers in their ears and expressing admiration for Putin if they want votes from disillusioned Conservatives.
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Re Russia
Perhaps as Al C would have done - just eliminate the man at the top and stand back and watch the cascade.0 -
There's certainly some comfort for the Tories in these polls.MarkSenior said:
You are not very good at reading the results of these polls are you ? In one seat UKIP arePaul_Mid_Beds said:
So thats at least 4 tory seats which were chimpanzee in a blue rosette secure that are now wafer thin marginals that need large amounts of resources deployed to that will mean less campaigning elsewhere.MaxPB said:
And quite feasible in all of them for UKIP to win the seat.
no hopers miles behind . In Boston and Skegness ,a previous poll had them in the lead and now they are trailing . UKIP fewer than 4 seats overall the clear bet .
They rather confirm and small easing off of support for UKIP. That eases things generally for the Conservatives in England.
Sporting Index's spread of 6-8 looks about right now, though of course that factors in high-side risk, so 4 or 5 seats currently looks like the correct projection.0 -
O/T - so tight is the 2015GE that every single seat makes a difference for the Tories.
If only Carswell and Farage are UKIP MPs in May, the Tories "start" on 304 seats, or 303 if you take Corby as "lost" to Labour.
Deduct a further 25 losses to Labour and add a dozen Lib Dem gains and you get to 290 seats. If the Lib Dems have a real 'mare and the Tories gain sixteen-seventeen seats from them, then they're on 294-295 seats, which may well be enough to stay in government if a C&S deal can be reached with the DUP and Lib Dems.0 -
Why would that affect the % unless it is only YES voters who are ineligible.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not everyone who voted in September is eligible to vote in May.chestnut said:I'm struggling to see much reason, if any, for the SNP to poll less in percentage terms than Yes.
It seems a matter of straightforward logic that if you wanted Out last September, this Westminster election is another opportunity to turn that screw and further that cause.
Plus differential turnout might be an issue.
I can't see turnout being close to 85% in Scotland in May0 -
Surely not football bootsRoger said:Doddy
"Roger... stands the test of time and new techniques..Thought the sound of the studs were similar to high heels on a marble floor...I suppose that might account for the teams performance."
John Woods did the sound and he'd have loved the idea of being able to say he got a sound of football boots using stillettos (which he probably did)0 -
I think NOT.Anorak said:
Mutual support to get what they both want, I suspect. More parades and more money respectively.FrankBooth said:
How would the DUP and the SNP likely get along if they were sat around the table together?Anorak said:0 -
You will be one of the sad few that vote Toryinitforthemoney said:
What if you voted yes, but don't want your general election vote to be seen to advocate anti-"austerity" nonsense or to go to a party which might prop up Labour?chestnut said:I'm struggling to see much reason, if any, for the SNP to poll less in percentage terms than Yes.
It seems a matter of straightforward logic that if you wanted Out last September, this Westminster election is another opportunity to turn that screw and further that cause.0 -
If people will not vote for a party that does not have a credible defence policy where does that leave the Conservatives? Of course you make think a policy consisting on continuous cuts and elimination of capabilities is credible and acceptable, which is fair enough but hardly leaves you in a position to criticise other parties thoughts on the matter. One of the least edifying spectacles last year was Cameron at the NATO summit demanding that all the other members meet the agreed 2% of GDP spending commitment and then refusing to do so himself.Casino_Royale said:
So, because the West is weak and cutting defence spending we should just give up trying to mount any defence at all?MikeK said:
I have no doubt that Fallon is getting bellicose and roaring like the lion he ain't because it looks good on the BBC and a GE is near.Casino_Royale said:
How on earth is he fanning the flames of war? Putin has kidnapped an Estonian border guard, which he has yet to return, is making no serious attempt to end the conflict in Ukraine and is regularly testing the UK air defences on an almost weekly basis.MikeK said:
After Fallons remarks yesterday re Russia and the Baltic states, is our Defence Sec, so called, trying to fan the flames of war?Casino_Royale said:Two RAF jets scrambled after Russian aircraft seen off Cornish coast:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31530840
What do you think we should do? Shut up and be quiet about it, and hope nothing happens?
No one in Europe is ready for a general war. Britain and the rest of the EU have been cutting defence spending for years and are pretty well down to the bone. 20,000 British troops if sent to an eastern European war, will just be cannon-fodder.
Russia, while having a large army is also in the middle of replacing outdated weapon systems, which will take another 2 years to complete.
The USA under Obo is cutting defence spending, has sacked its best generals and admirals - replacing them with Obama arse lickers, and is withdrawing from the world into isolation.
Big talk is just that; big talk. However, it wont stop local nut cases from trying to cause trouble. And the middle-east could flare up at the drop of a "kova tembel".
I'm sorry, but that's a ludicrous position. UKIP really have to come up a credible defence policy that is based on more than sticking their fingers in their ears and expressing admiration for Putin if they want votes from disillusioned Conservatives.0 -
more likely the even fewer who vote ukipmalcolmg said:
You will be one of the sad few that vote Toryinitforthemoney said:
What if you voted yes, but don't want your general election vote to be seen to advocate anti-"austerity" nonsense or to go to a party which might prop up Labour?0 -
Sadly yes.Charles said:I've just had a really depressing email.
A Jewish contact of mine has just emailed to say he is changing his surname to his wife's maiden name (which is Anglo-Saxon rather than Yiddish) because he's worried about his kids' safety.
Has it really come to this?
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My post has nothing to do with UKIP, I was just stating the current situation; so stop mixing it, @ Mr Casino.Casino_Royale said:
So, because the West is weak and cutting defence spending we should just give up trying to mount any defence at all?MikeK said:
I have no doubt that Fallon is getting bellicose and roaring like the lion he ain't because it looks good on the BBC and a GE is near.Casino_Royale said:
How on earth is he fanning the flames of war? Putin has kidnapped an Estonian border guard, which he has yet to return, is making no serious attempt to end the conflict in Ukraine and is regularly testing the UK air defences on an almost weekly basis.MikeK said:
After Fallons remarks yesterday re Russia and the Baltic states, is our Defence Sec, so called, trying to fan the flames of war?Casino_Royale said:Two RAF jets scrambled after Russian aircraft seen off Cornish coast:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31530840
What do you think we should do? Shut up and be quiet about it, and hope nothing happens?
No one in Europe is ready for a general war. Britain and the rest of the EU have been cutting defence spending for years and are pretty well down to the bone. 20,000 British troops if sent to an eastern European war, will just be cannon-fodder.
Russia, while having a large army is also in the middle of replacing outdated weapon systems, which will take another 2 years to complete.
The USA under Obo is cutting defence spending, has sacked its best generals and admirals - replacing them with Obama arse lickers, and is withdrawing from the world into isolation.
Big talk is just that; big talk. However, it wont stop local nut cases from trying to cause trouble. And the middle-east could flare up at the drop of a "kova tembel".
I'm sorry, but that's a ludicrous position. UKIP really have to come up a credible defence policy that is based on more than sticking their fingers in their ears and expressing admiration for Putin if they want votes from disillusioned Conservatives.
Actually UKIP has the strongest defence policy of any of the political parties. Too long and elaborate to expound here, (go to UKIP.com). Suffice to say defence spending with be increased and a remodelling of the armed forces will be attempted, and with the help of decent general officers, achieved.
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I see that Mr Senior is getting excited - again. Remember the snapshot meme. I bet that 3 of these seats fall to UKIP at the actual GE. £100 evens sez so, to you and Mr Senior only.Peter_the_Punter said:
There's certainly some comfort for the Tories in these polls.MarkSenior said:
You are not very good at reading the results of these polls are you ? In one seat UKIP arePaul_Mid_Beds said:
So thats at least 4 tory seats which were chimpanzee in a blue rosette secure that are now wafer thin marginals that need large amounts of resources deployed to that will mean less campaigning elsewhere.MaxPB said:
And quite feasible in all of them for UKIP to win the seat.
no hopers miles behind . In Boston and Skegness ,a previous poll had them in the lead and now they are trailing . UKIP fewer than 4 seats overall the clear bet .
They rather confirm and small easing off of support for UKIP. That eases things generally for the Conservatives in England.
Sporting Index's spread of 6-8 looks about right now, though of course that factors in high-side risk, so 4 or 5 seats currently looks like the correct projection.
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If only the palestinians tried to live in peace eh?FalseFlag said:
Is he worried about Palestinian children and their future?Charles said:
whatabouteryFalseFlag said:
Would that work in Gaza?Charles said:I've just had a really depressing email.
A Jewish contact of mine has just emailed to say he is changing his surname to his wife's maiden name (which is Anglo-Saxon rather than Yiddish) because he's worried about his kids' safety.
Has it really come to this?
Perhaps you think its ok the way they use childrens tv to warp the minds of children to hate.
Still, you think Putin's one of the good guys.0 -
Charles
"I've just had a really depressing email.
A Jewish contact of mine has just emailed to say he is changing his surname to his wife's maiden name (which is Anglo-Saxon rather than Yiddish) because he's worried about his kids' safety.
Has it really come to this?"
No it really hasn't. But paranoia has been around for years.
My Dad used to say his girlfriends used to have to add 'Berg' to the end of their surnames to get past my rather formidable Grandmother0
