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Looking at the GB electorate as a whole the total of voters who have moved from. LAB to the SNP in Scotland amount to fewer than 1% yet the impact in terms of seats can be enormous which is why Scottish polls are so significant.
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A 1% National swing to Mebyon Kernow from any party would give them all the six seats they stand in (1%/6x650 = 108% swing)
Greeks are the most hardworking & trustworthy in the EU, say Greeks. Others say they are lazy & untrustworthy.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-LnmsCCMAAQ2c0.png
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11421500/ECB-risks-crippling-political-damage-if-Greece-forced-to-default.html
http://blogs.kcl.ac.uk/policywonkers/was-peter-oborne-right-about-the-telegraphs-coverage-of-the-hsbc-scandal/
On Scotland given size of Labour majorities I'm punting a halfway house. SNP flatter to deceive and looks like SLAB are nudging back in so reckon they will lose some tho' not the wipeout some said a fortnight back.
Scotland cld be an intriguing sideshow & only Westminster main stage if we get to LAB-SNP coalition territory. I'm moving away from that & LAB MAJ at moment.
Wider still there's always a feeling that you've added your vote to the national picture regardless of whether it 'decides' the actual outcome. Decry that & you've decried democracy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/saudiarabia/11419428/Watch-Saudi-cleric-tells-students-Earth-does-not-rotate.html
For me it's one of the useful trigger hints to just skim over the rest of that comment.
SNP pick up more No voters than Labour pick up Yes.
The die is cast.
It would, IMHO and with the benefit of hindsight, to have gone for PR in local elections which would get rid of one-party local governments. The benefits would have rapidly become obvious and the demand for it at National level irresistable.
If there is an inconclusive result in the GE with a 3 party coalition/C&S needed, I think everyone agrees it will be unstable.
However, if Labour loses Scotland (which would seem to be a precondition for the inconclusive election result) then I'd imagine they will be in complete turmoil - it would be the Tories losing Buckinghamshire. EdM is going to come under huge pressure. Money aside, are they actually going to be in a position to fight another election mentally?
If so, doesn't that increase the probability of the other parties trying a Wilson (Fixed Term Parliament aside)?
I dont understand the graph above. What do the figures at the bottom titled SNP lead over Labour (% vote) relate to?
SNP holds firm as Murphy struggles to make headway for Labour
A new poll suggests the SNP is still on course to make gains in the General Election as Jim Murphy's leadership of Scottish Labour appears to have so far failed to revive its popularity among voters.
Nicola Sturgeon's party continues to ride high, with 45 per cent of people polled by Survation backing the Nationalists, down one point on a similar survey it conducted last month.
Labour's support was up two points to 28 per cent despite high profile campaigns by Jim Murphy on oil, hospital waiting times and allowing alcohol at football matches.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/poll-snp-holds-firm-as-murphy-struggles-to-make-headway-for-labour.1424299044
You have half a chance with Edinburgh South and Aberdeen South...
The graph refers to the split of seats dependent on the size of the SNP's % lead.
Mr. Indigo, cheers for that amusing table.
F1: test should be underway by now, no BBC livefeed as yet.
Will you be brave enough to make a prediction, after your catastrophic referendum campaign?
Will you be as 'brave' as "comical" James Kelly, late of this parish, on 53 for the SNP?
Will you be brave enough to post at all?
Or are you just all mouth and no trousers?
Thanks
Pulpstar
"You have half a chance with Edinburgh South and Aberdeen South..."
I hope I have more than half a chance with Edinburgh South. They're odds on favourites.
Lab (Avg) 280.71
Lib Dem (Avg) 27.31
UKIP (Avg) 4.48
Green (Avg) 0.99
SNP (Avg) 32.86
I know it's a naive question but why are councillors politically active? You'll also remember when we had lots of independents (usually conservative with a small c). I can see why the Greens are there - they can ban meat and industry from the area - but most of council work is apolitical. I suppose the real question is why do people vote for political parties in council elections? I'd rather have an efficient councillor (even a Green) than a party animal.
It helps with the careerists; you can't become an MP unless you're a Spad or councillor now, but it's no use to the constituents. Here, we have a permanent Labour council and as always, it's the highly political sort who are put forward as candidates.
Do donkeys need a rosette?
Returning to Mr. Indigo's excellent comedy table, there are a few interesting bits. As well as the British wisely distrusting the French, Germany has a great reputation at the moment. Those distrusted seem to those at the worse end of the eurozone (lot sof negativity for Italy and Greece, mostly the later).
Greeks viewing themselves as most trustworthy and hardworking (everyone else of the 10 or so other countries pick Germany for both) could help result in a very ugly turn in the public mood if Tsipras doesn't effectively win the negotiations, as hard reality crashes into Greek, er, optimism.
Of course, Tsipras could yet win. We shall see.
And still the Tories slumber towards what for them would be a catastrophic defeat in May.
Who is asking the tough questions of the floundering Conservative Party? Too many pom poms there, not enough soul searching.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/02/18/labour-baroness-repaid-125k-expenses-with-muslim-brotherhood-loan/
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/02/11/labour-party-linked-with-european-branch-of-hamas/
Group 1 60 odd LibDem seats
Group 2 60 odd Lab Con and Con Lab marginals
A Jewish contact of mine has just emailed to say he is changing his surname to his wife's maiden name (which is Anglo-Saxon rather than Yiddish) because he's worried about his kids' safety.
Has it really come to this?
What is your prediction as a matter of interest? Wouldn't want to think you're someone who (only) snipes impotently from the sidelines.
Both sides are committed to their course (whether they like it or not), and the Tories are holding tight to their established strategy, hoping for a Budget boost. At this stage of the battle "maintenance of aim" is an important principle and it is the time to hold one's nerve.
If the Tories do lose the election in May it will be because of mistakes made in earlier years, not for the lack of a sudden u-turn during the campaign.
When we back down on matters like depicting Mohammed because that's what maniacs with guns want* we're also doing the bidding of the pathologically anti-Semitic [not that a second reason is needed to argue against letting murderers dictate freedom of the press/speech].
It'd be nice to have a party advocating a First Amendment style law, instead of the current trend across major parties to try and curb freedom of speech as much as possible.
*Easy for me to say, I know. I'm not a cartoonist.
Edited extra bit: King Cole, indeed. It seems citizens of various countries in Europe are generally better at getting along than in the past, with the notable exception of the extreme [including those who have extreme views but don't act on them] Muslim fringe.
Edited extra bit two: And the lunatic fringe's problem isn't with country X or country Y, it's against the West generally (and Jews in particular).
Do you know where I could get to see the Murphy PPB?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vy-zOmdTw0
Compare & contrast with the Scottish Conservative & Unionist PPB:
http://www.scottishconservatives.com/2015/02/watch-new-peb/
Anna S has chosen to take on Lab/Lib councillors both collectively and individually, sometimes to the mild embarrassment of local Tories - "You know what she's like", they say, and shrug. A lot of my information on their campaign activities come from casual conversation with councillors, who joined up to do their bit for the community and are indeed vaguely Tory but aren't really on board for full-scale partisan warfare. Conversely, we find we can't keep secrets for long - the cross-party gossip networks are too strong.
I suppose this sort of amiable culture would be undesirable in a crisis, but for everyday discussion of whether building X should be refurbished or library Y should restrict opening hours, it works well and keeps stresses down - most councillors describe their work as interesting though difficult rather than wearying and horrible.
It's also very similar to those who blame the cartoonists for exercising their right to free speech/expression for getting murdered by maniacs with machine-guns.
Extend the loan on Greece's terms (or at least some of them) and keep Greece in the Euro or enter the great unknown and see what happens. Today's escalation is the news that Germany will loss billions if Greece defaults. The problem is that continued austerity isn't going to fix anything and virtually everyone bar the Germans can see that...
“You need to think why this antisemitism is getting worse. It’s because of the actions of the IDF shelling schools and hospitals and killing and maiming thousands of men, women and children.”
http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/130128/council-leader-blames-israel-rising-antisemitism
While I doubt he is an anti-semite (his wife & children are Jewish), he's certainly one of their useful idiots.
If only restraint by the IDF would end anti-semitism.....
SMICBIPL Stevie Mac is crap back in Premier League.
Another Nat fail..
.....oh, and I found comical James prediction (at least he has the courage of his convictions) by searching for the most deluded optimistic SNP prediction - he's 3 short of the highest.....
Should get some embarrassed silence for a time I reckon.
"Well it was only a few minutes of abuse out of 10hrs, I think I would probably get that much abuse if I walked around Manchester for 10hrs"
"Would you be spat at? Would the abuse by anti-Semitic"
"Well probably not, but it was only a few minutes out of all that time"
"It was edited down, and we didn't capture all of it either because we were using a hidden camera and the microphone had a limited range"..
...then the coverage moved on to if the Jewish guy was "inciting" this reaction by the neighborhoods he visited while wearing the skull cap.
Could you imagine Adrian or another BBC bod saying to the guy on the Paris metro, well I mean it wasn't that bad, he only pushed you a couple of times...didn't you realise that going on the metro at that time would mean you might encounter football fans and you were inciting them...
Appalling way for a current affairs programme and journalists to view the subject.
As I am struggling to see how that would come about in relation to the mainly 6%-10% polling GB figures for the LDs, I have been looking back to the 2010 data for each of the GB countries.
Scotland: In 2010 LDs won 11 seats on 18.9% ( 465,471 votes) of the Scotland vote. In those 11seats they had 186,856 votes in total which is 40% of LD vote in Scotland. Of those seats only three: Gordon, Berwickshire and Dumbarton East had a lower constituency share of the vote than 36%.
However, presuming that the turnout in 2015 is the same as 2010, if the LD vote in Scotland is halved (9.5%) in 2015, then the available LD vote for all the Scottish constituencies would be ~233,000. Thus if they kept the same vote for the 11 seats they are defending, then for all the other seats in Scotland they would have just (233,000-186,856) = 46,144 votes.
Is this scenario realistic?
I will give the figures for England and Wales later.
Although I've always wondered what laws of physics these towns decided to adopt as an alternative? And where did they put all the protons and neutrons?
So I think 2% is a realistic figure for all non incumbent seats to start from with the Lib Dems in Scotland to work from.
These are the same Nats, who used to describe a 0.5% swing from no to Yes as significant, but dismiss a 3.5% swing in the last two months as margin of error.
The second question shows that - in (non-Scottish) Lib Dem held constituencies - more people say they will vote Lib Dem than do so in response to the first, standard national opinion poll, question.
Thus attempting to reconcile the Ashcroft marginal polling to the national opinion poll numbers is bound to end in failure - because Ashcroft demonstrates the two methods give very different figures for Lib Dem votes in Lib Dem seats.
Motherwell & Wishaw
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Motherwell-Wishaw-Jan-2015-Full-tables.pdf
Literally one man will vote for the Lib Dems there, and his dog is not too sure.
"If only restraint by the IDF would end anti-semitism....."
While so many believe being anti Israeli is in itself anti semitic there's a very good chance it would.
Leicester was a nuclear free zone. It never got nuked by the Sovs.
Care to frame a bet around your 35 SNP seats, or are you all mouth and no trousers?
They'd go from 9,675 votes (18.3% of the vote) to 2,900 (5.5% of the vote)
So, yes, the Lib Dems could get some very impressive seat efficiency.