Badenoch’s net ratings improve by 8% in a month – politicalbetting.com
Badenoch’s net ratings improve by 8% in a month – politicalbetting.com
Longstanding readers of PB know that Mike Smithson and myself consider the Ipsos satisfaction as the gold standard of leadership ratings and this month is no different.
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Like Badenoch if there were only 2 competitors, and one of them (or the other one) was not SKS.
Badenoch and Davey both look better than March on this page from Mori. If i am looking at the wrong data then, apologies.
Opportunity for Burnham here.
Ron Pickering is dead,
The Two Rons from Hale and Pace are fictional,
Ronnie Biggs was a crook,
Ronald McDonald is American.
I must admit, I don't like the RON process in elections. It's not pleasant to have to choose the least disagreeable option, but it's the stuff of real life. Saying "I don't like these choices, someone should come up with a better one" is the self-indulgence of the pseudo-high-minded. It's part of our problem now.
Oil (and LNG) have low price elasticity in the short and medium term.
This is because usage tends not to be optional. You can use the car *a bit* less. But most oil and gas usage is already reduced as much as possible, due to higher prices (in Europe in general)
This means, in turn, that demand destruction takes really big price changes.
60% for 8% is probably a *low* number
As @TheScreamingEagles (and I) have repeatedly pointed out, the worst case for the current situation is that demand destruction won’t reduce the oil defect to zero. Countries are heading, right now to empty tanks.
As to controlling the price - the U.K. doesn’t. We don’t own the oil and gas. The oil companies don’t either - they are employed by the owners.
At this point someone suggests another mechanism than price for demand destruction. This has been tried over the centuries for many things. It has always failed. On an epic scale.
Reform UK still hold a clear lead on 25%, but this lead is six points - one point down from March. This continues a steady decline in Reform’s vote share from a high of 34% in September 2025
Labour and the Conservatives are now tied on 19%. Labour are down two points, and the Conservatives are up two points.
The Greens stay on 17% - matching their record high with Ipsos last month.
The Liberal Democrats (14%) are up 5 points from March.
Headline voting intention (Changes since March)
Reform UK continue to lead on headline voting intention. However they are down to 25% - their lowest vote share since the 2024 General Election. Labour and the Conservatives are tied in second place on 19%.
Reform 25% (-3)
Labour 19% (-2)
Conservative 19% (+2)
Greens 17% (No change)
Lib Dems 14% (+5)
Others 7% (-1)
Reform UK lead: +6 (down one point from March)
Satisfaction ratings (Changes since January)
Each month Ipsos ask the public whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with how the government are running the country and how various politicians are doing their jobs; Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, Rachel Reeves as Chancellor and various other politicians as leaders of their respective parties. Here is a summary of this month’s scores:
Government: 16% satisfied (-1 from March), 78% dissatisfied (+3). Net satisfaction -62.
Keir Starmer: 18% satisfied (-1), 74% dissatisfied (+2). Net satisfaction -56.
Kemi Badenoch: 25% satisfied (+4), 52% dissatisfied (-4). Net satisfaction -27.
Nigel Farage: 29% satisfied (nc), 59% dissatisfied (+1). Net satisfaction -30.
Ed Davey: 25% satisfied (+4), 41% dissatisfied (-2). Net -16.
Zack Polanski: 28% satisfied (-2), 42% dissatisfied (+5). Net -14.
Rachel Reeves: 13% satisfied (nc), 72% dissatisfied (+2). Net -59.
The graphic from Ipsos is wrong, they've got the pluses and minuses the wrong way round.
Ooops.
But yes, I've updated the header.
As penance I will not publish any alternative vote themed threads for the rest of the month.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5837397-trump-extends-russian-oil-waiver/
Didn't Bessant make a lot of money shorting positions and other forms of betting on insider knowledge?
Polling shows most Reform voters backed Trump's strikes on Iran, even more than Tory voters did. Plenty still want to remove the Iranian regime and not just Jewish voters or Iranian exiles
In terms of Badenoch even though I don’t particularly like her I’m happy to see her ratings improve and want to see the Tories vote share rise .
Indeed anyone that wants to stop Reform from getting anywhere close to government need the Tories to not implode.
Whilst I fundamentally disagree with them especially in terms of the EU and the ECHR the alternative fills me with absolute horror .
Bradford will be using "Kangaroo Boards" to expedite the process.
The Conservatives also want Labour to win back some seats projected to go Reform as it is then easier for the Tories to win more seats than Reform and stay the main party of the right in the UK
I mentioned the other day SNP constituency vote % has an over/under band at Ladbrokes set at 39.5. There has only been 1 poll in the last year (on the Wikipedia polling list) which had SNP above 39%, the rest have all been 39% or under. There may be some extra Green votes to factor in as they are only standing in 6 seats and not all polling companies questions reflect this. Under 39.5% is currently evens.
Lads also has a market for who gets second highest number of seats at Holyrood. The Conservatives are currently 100/1 for this, which while it is a remote chance, is not going to be a hundred to one shot - particularly if Swinney does get his majority and the remaining vote is split. As ever, DYOR
It is thought, by experts, that this is because the landowners were doing a special “three-for-one” weekend discount on Celtic saint burials
https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2045385826998038879
Suppose a 3 for 1 funeral gives a new meaning to "everybody get Down"
Since a very recent (forced) upgrade, Yahoo email employs AI to 'help'. Yahoo has just added an extra person to a CC list unannounced, presumably because the CC list was a person with whom the other person is frequently combined. It was a private email of no concern to the added party. I only noticed after it was sent because I then had occasion to search for emails I'd sent to this second person.
Googling, it seems that this upgrade is a Beta version. I'm trying to turn AI off in Yahoo but AI's 'help' is making it very difficult.
May be best to migrate to another platform.
/whinge
Good morning, everybody.
My accountant sent me a PDF of my annual accounts. The AI pop up on Acrobat says "this looks to be a long document, do you want an AI summary". The answer is "No, the whole point is the detail!".
If I could turn off every bit of AI on my phone and laptop then I would, but so convinced are the tech-bros that it is the future that they do not enable that.
Once we get into 2027 in particular the 'the gov might call a GE at any time' worry will be on people's minds (even though with current polls Labour would not do so, if they change leaders and get a polling bump they might).
But at present companies are just shoving half baked or pointless 'AI' features into everything to jump on the bandwagon and justify the enormous costs that are going into it.
The customer is working for the product, not the other way around. You will use AI and you will love it.
IRG fire on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz
I suspect it is more just being lazy and taking a definitive 'We must always be on X side' stance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REfQUKbCS0c
Now, where's my Tiki Bar?
It's interesting that Microsoft has started walking back the forced inclusion of Copilot in Windows 11. Microsoft, like Google, has the advantage of not needing their AI efforts to pay off. Annoying users to the extent they dump Windows and move to Linux is a bigger threat to MS than Copilot not making money.
Most of this 'AI everywhere' nonsense will go away in the next year or two as it sinks in how much users hate it, and when the AI bubble pops removes a lot of the pressure to show AI is generating some kind of return on investment.
Agree or not he doesn't change his mind and then deny he said what he said and bare faced LIE and LIE like his braided doppelganger!
https://x.com/newjournal/status/2044902136018796587?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8Gp-skuvOI
Half an hour of Danny Kruger on why Reform is not just Tories on holiday and how "if you want to summarize the Reform agenda in a sentence, it's undo everything Blair and Brown did".
Streeting would whop any of those Leaders in favourability but would not be voted by Labour Members
Burnham would whop any of those Leaders in favourability but is basically a decent Mayor and MP but no PM!
The only chance i see for Streeting is if Starmer leaves "in office" in which case myunderstanding is that the current Cabinet appints an interim Leader. If Starmer can convince wnough of pretty much a centrist group that he could both lead them AND crucially improve Labour ratings and quickly, they might just give him a crack.
Ahead of its launch in 2023, Musk predicted that Tesla would be selling 250,000 Cybertrucks annually by 2025
The actual figure was just over 20,000 Cybertrucks sold last year, down from 38,965 in 2024.
https://www.the-independent.com/tech/elon-musk-cybertruck-sales-spacex-b2959956.html
(I know Tesla have been pivoting away to other interests beyond cars and rivals were going to catch up, but even so the Cybertruck is embarrasing)
https://x.com/i/status/2045430617144279180
https://x.com/crankynotions/status/2045169863203656141?s=20
The father is the organiser of "Artists For Gaza" and founded the Wag Club
Ok, that is not entirely true, but it is a consequence of their overdramatic references to tearing up 'the' system.
Which, again to be fair, is a position that has some popularity for better or worse, so a reasonable niche to seek to exploit, but I struggle to see them as the anti-establishment reformers they desperately want to be. It seems more just blundering in and believing super hard that it will all work out.
Kruger, at least, sometimes thinks more carefully about things, even if you don't agree with any of his conclusions.
Patel is threatening to sue, so mods please take down if you think he has any chance of succeeding in court.
(If he actually takes it that far, which I doubt, discovery will be fascinating.)
EXCLUSIVE: Kash Patel’s colleagues are alarmed by what they say is erratic behavior and excessive drinking. I spoke with more than 2 dozen people with knowledge of his conduct, some of whom described it as a national security vulnerability.
https://x.com/S_Fitzpatrick/status/2045268110119141548
In a similar vein I question how much focus is sometimes given to people when inquiries are being set up. You don't want a closed shop or for victims etc to have no input, but with matters like who makes a great inquiry chair I don't think I'd be imbued with particular insight or wisdom on that just because I had suffered a tragedy, and my reaction shouldn't be the primary consideration. An amount of cool assessment is needed, even if we don't want politics to be a robotic logical evaluation.
Anything else is just bleeding heart conservatism.
Yes, those are more focused areas so maybe some were more strongly LD in the first place. Yes, the Labour government had crashed in popularity. Yes, Labour have no local councillor strength so the 'cannot win here' effect was in full swing, and yes, the LDs will have had all the campaigning strength.
But it still seems like an amusingly large switch between GE and Locals all the same, as clearly plenty of people would like to vote Labour round here, it's been a long time since 2015 and the LDs are doing fine locally so could have regained their usual second place in parliamentary terms.
The answer does not imply he has seen the actual vetting. It's been made clear that no PM sees it.
He would be fully aware that his relationship to Epstein was part of the questions undoubtedly asked.
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This is no smoking gun, more a wet fart
If he didn't then he has a problem with misleading the house
https://x.com/i/status/2045458264645660906
https://news.sky.com/liveblog-webview/iran-war-latest-trump-us-israel-ceasefire-deal-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-strikes-oil-lebanon-13509565