Something to consider when betting on the next PM market – politicalbetting.com
Something to consider when betting on the next PM market – politicalbetting.com
The new PM would also assume the position of Acting Leader of the Labour Party (not Lucy Powell as Deputy Leader, which is what would happen in Opposition).
2
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Has it gone on for much longer, all manner of stockpiles might have started to run out.
There are many such cases:
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all depend on a gas extracted from the Dead Sea to etch their memory chips. South Korea imports 97.5% of its bromine from a single country in the Middle East. One facility there extracts the raw material and converts it into semiconductor-grade hydrogen bromide on-site. It sits less than 40 kilometers from where missiles landed in March. Hydrogen bromide can etch one layer of a transistor without touching the layer beneath it, at 100-to-1 precision. Chlorine alternatives manage 30-to-1. At the scale these chips are built, that gap is the difference between a functional transistor and a destroyed one. There is no substitute in sight. Three other companies on Earth produce nearly all of it: Resonac, Air Liquide, and Adeka. They are fully committed to existing customers. Building new conversion capacity takes two to five years and requires 99.9999% purity. I manufacture chemicals. Bromine exists in Arkansas, in China, in Jordan. But industrial bromine is not semiconductor-grade hydrogen bromide.
https://x.com/Gaurab/status/2045155425746850164
Tl;dr: offshore processing doesn't work, but turning back the boats does.
https://x.com/s8mb/status/2045141157135417643
Very unwise I would suggest.
Is Rayner ineligible because of the HMRC investigation?
I'm surprised she hasn't cleared the tax (or a rich supporter on her behalf) but reports are that she is still disputing it.
Not sure why.
Others will disagree but the 'decent man' stuff is looking very old hat and clapped out.
Well, after weeks of tension and unease, perhaps finally some light at the end of the Strait. IF this is a full unfettered reopening, we should presumably see global supply issues ease in time.
The pressure will now (rightly) be on big oil which has done very well out of all this - as people see oil prices returning back to pre-conflict levels, there will be questions asked as to when and by how much petrol and diesel prices will fall.
Now, I imagine the experts on here will come up with all sorts of reasons why prices will remain high for a while - frankly, I don't care. We should see the prices fall quickly and immediately - the oil companies can suck up the loss as they have profited (and profiteered) from the conflict so let them take some pain while the public has had to watch their costs increase.
For a change, I'd like to see Government AND Opposition working together on this to force the prices back down to pre-Conflict levels over the next 2-4 weeks.
Obviously, the other piece of significant news is @Leon and his taxes. I presume that's been a big part of the DJIA closing in on 50,000.
My abiding regret is NOT opening a trading contract in November 2008 and buying the DJIA at $100 a point when it was 7,500 - I thought the Dow rising was the biggest certainty since the last one but I was in Las Vegas and more interested in winning at the Blackjack tables in The Mirage.
IF this is the end of the conflict and life returning to what passes for normal, the opportunity to get rid of Starmer has likely passed. Let's say Labour do slightly less badly and the Conservatives slightly more badly than is generally baked in and the pressure is back on her.
IF we get six months of relative calm and petrol prices fall back, the only one getting the credit will be Starmer.
To be fair, the continuing implosion of Reform still offers the Conservatives the possibility of remaining in second place (and therefore the credible alternative Government) after the next election and we still have the thick end of three years of "events, dear boy, events" as someone once said to navigate..
"I would rather w**k with a razor".
Pretty clear response from bloke in Wales when asked if he would consider voting Reform...
https://bsky.app/profile/willhaycardiff.bsky.social/post/3mjowfn3jjs2c
If we simply rename the English Channel “Keir Starmer’s desk” then nothing will fucking cross it
https://nitter.poast.org/MediaSOI/status/2044891913937936713#m
Because of decolonisation, in much of the world, they no longer own the oil and gas. The locals do. So the Big Oil companies are working on a margin.
The world got woke... The people to complain to live in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia....
If it doesnt work you can pretend you didnt resign anyway. Its not like your letter will cross his desk
I've not been following the story this afternoon, but the bits I've seen seem to imply that Starmer really didn't know the stuff that made Mandelson unappointable, rather than a possibly worthwhile risk.
That shouldn't leave him in the clear- there are loads of important questions of why he didn't know, why he didn't ask. And I'm not sure they have any good answers for the PM.
But by going all-in on the lying point (looking for a mirror image of Boris?), Kemi risks letting the government collect four byes that they have done nothing to deserve.
Reform 25% (-3)
Labour 19% (-2)
Conservative 19% (+2)
Greens 17% (No change)
Lib Dems 14% (+5)
Others 7% (-1)
9-15 April
There have been those who have profited from all this - IF WTI or Brent goes to S110 a barrel, someone is paying that to someone else. I don't know who the "someone else" is - my suspicion is the American oil companies have done very well out of this but again I could be wrong.
I also accept the Treasury has been quite happy to takemin the fuel duty but when you're £120 billion in the hole, every little helps as some supermarket periodically reminds me.
He gets some credit for not getting us involved though. Still, the economic pain of the war has only just started to bite - and it will be a lagging indicator. We’re likely to have a difficult summer and autumn on the economic front, though hopefully if the peace holds we might get back to slightly better news by the end of the year. Rate rises might be off the table now, but it’s hard to see cuts now until very late into the year or early next. Whether that’s too late for Starmer, time will tell. I doubt he’s going to be forced out before May (though he should possibly go). It’s 50/50 for me whether he’ll face a challenge after the elections - the Labour Party aren’t very good at forcing PMs out, which works in his favour.
Ron Filipkowski
@RonFilipkowski
·
57m
Trump has now made 13 posts over the last hour declaring victory in Iran.
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/2045160632492716291
A former pro said similar to me about Devon Malcolm, he had fuck all idea where it was going to go, so no chance of me reading it. All I knew was, was it was going to come fast.
But the pure oil traders and the freight brokers have been making good money in the last few weeks because of all the arbitrage opportunities.
On the one hand, you can't, as a Conservative, whitewash what your Party didn't achieve in 14 years of leading the Government and expect the public to run back to the blue rosette while at the same time expecting everyone to remember every detail of what Starmer did from July 2024.
An example - the Thatcher Government teetered on the brink during Westland when Heseltine theatrically walked out of Cabinet - there was a real sense of crisis over what had happened and oddly enough had a forensic Starmer rather than a verbally incontinent Kinnock been at the Dispatch Box it's possible the Government might have fallen. A little over a year later and a re-election with a majority of 101.
You and I might remember the minutiae - most people don't. I'll be blunt - if the perception is immigration under control and the economy doing all right, Starmer will win re-election. If the perception is things aren't going well and immigration is still perceived as being out of control, there'll be a different result.
The Ayatollah and the IRGC are going to crack down even harder on the dissidents as they will say it is Allah's will/munificence that they defeated the Zionists and the Great Satan.
The fact Bibi and Don also targeted civilian infrastructure has also made life even harder for the ordinary Iranian.
A circle of hell waits for all three leaders.
One of the few joys available to an opposition politician is 'We've really got them this time.' One of the sharpest pains is the realisation that, a few days later, they're still in power.
We’re actually seeing a very unusual long lived Westerly Wind Burst in the Eastern Pacific at the moment, just as the more usual (but extremely strong) WWB in the West Pacific winds down, which should increase the likelihood of an East-based rather than Modoki El Niño. Those tend to have more severe impacts on tropical rainfall.
Dynamic models now hinting at a close to record breaking event.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif
Remember: this means higher prices for soy, rice, Alfalfa, Millet and (usually) wheat.
I'm quite happy to join the view Reform are now off the top but as others have and will point out, there are still gains for them to be made in May though the May 2026 results won't be as good in terms of vote shares as the May 2025 results were and it will be interesting to see or try to determine how many seats Reform will fail to win in three weeks because of their decline in share.
The Greens will do well though how well remains to be seen. Newham (and if everyone continues to behave badly,I'll put up a thread for @TSE to consider on the election in my backyard (metaphorically not literally) won't see the Green gains other Inner London Boroughs (Hackney, Lewisham) are likely to see but they could still win 6-8 seats and might become the kingmakers in a hung council.
I just spoke to the President on the phone. He said Iran has agreed to an “unlimited” suspension of its nuclear program and that the US is not going to release any frozen Iranian funds.
Babak Vahdad
@BabakVahdad
Tasnim says Iran has reportedly set three conditions for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz:
1.Only commercial ships allowed, no military vessels; cargo must not be linked to “hostile” states.
2.Transit must follow routes designated by Iran.
3.Passage requires coordination with the IRGC Navy.
#Iran #Iranwar
https://x.com/BabakVahdad/status/2045155300072731043
That's neat!
As we all know the Australian approach simply isn't possible in the Channel but it's a brilliant what could be for Farage / racists
IF Starmer inadvertently misled Parliament on the basis of incorrect or incomplete information, then an apology is warranted but no more. IF, however, he knowingly misled Parliament, that's a hanging offence (metaphorically not literally) and he will have to resign.
I can't believe he doesn't know that so unless there's clear and indisputable evidence, it looks like incompetence anmd miscommunication and that'sdamaging but not fatally.
Which highlights how silly Boris's response to Partygate was.
No they haven't agreed that would be my very strong theory.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
9m
This is the circle it's impossible for No.10 to square. If, as they have begun claiming, Robbins was indeed precluded from informing them because of the rules, then there were no grounds to sack him. If the rules did not preclude him, then it's inconceivable he didn't tell them.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2045178926083768617
Best to do it en masse. Starmer could of course fire them but if over half the cabinet has told him to f*** off he might not.
Of course, he'd probably do the standard thing of resigning at some point in the future to allow an election to happen
That might mean less change in London for example than some have been suggesting.
The 'Rhodesia Solution': How to use word tricks to 'disclose' a scandal to a Prime Minister while allowing him not to act. And to say, later on, that he wasn't really told...
https://x.com/frasernelson/status/2045158346135572879?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Dubai Police said the arrest took place on April 15. They said Kinahan, who has been based in the UAE for over a decade, was arrested within 48 hours of the warrant being issued by the Irish government.
Somebodies bribe money didn't get paid on time.
I'm getting less confdent of much resilence in much of Norfolk. But a bit more than some of the prediction sites predict
https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Rule-Book-2026.pdf
"Procedure in a vacancy:
When the Party is in government and the
Party leader is prime minister and the Party
leader, for whatever reason, becomes permanently unavailable, the Cabinet
shall, in consultation with the NEC, appoint
one of its members to serve as Party
leader until a ballot under these rules can
be carried out."
The NEC membership list:
https://labour.org.uk/whos-on-the-nec/
So while Powell is not in Cabinet, she is on the NEC. The wording in the rulebook is a bit ambiguous but could be interpreted to mean that NEC members are also eligible to be Leader.
The rules also state that this is a temporary measure until a formal leadership contest takes place.
If there was proven active lying it would be in single digits.
A great outcome for Labour being that it has shown its incompetence and miscommunication would be bad enough. But there is now also a large side-order of skepticism that it is probably lying about what went down. And that is very, very bad.
Remember that Iran have won and America reduced to begging. Would be surprised if this just stops and stays stopped.
America needs to have won something
Netanyahu is under massive pressure to keep bombing
Iran has learned that with a few drones and some mines it can hold the infidel to ransom
Would be great if that was all now done, but I can’t see it.
Now, there are companies that do benefit more directly from the price of oil: but they are mostly US and Canadian firms with lots of North Americn production.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-narcissism-of-no-differences/#more-156556
(used up my image quota)
The summary of the Reform one is pretty amusing:
Scotland cannot be a country, but it can be the most successful country in the world that isn’t really a country and can’t run its own affairs.”
But I think it's easy to miss what the majors core competences are: in most cases it's being able to manage $30-40bn engineering projects in some of the most challenging locations in the world, and to have the processes and systems in place to deliver things (roughly) on-time and on-budget.
A lot of what Exxon and Shell do is going to countries with stranded gas (Papua New Guinea, Peru, etc.) and then build and run massive LNG plants very far from civilization. That's something no one else can do.
The guys who make money from the oil price are the E&Ps, especially the ones with lots of US unconventional exposure.
So while the results in England may not be quite as bad as last year for the Tories, Labour will receive a shellacking and a half.
If so what a sad loss.
They’re actually quite handy in places like Belfast as an indicator you’re heading west or east etc
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/syndicate-sought-to-confront-fallon-1.971118
NickDaniel here, however, has all twenty fat little fingers, and toes, in every dirty rotten stinking pie in London, Ireland, Dubai, ....."I used to go to the Wood when I was younger.
Strictly speaking that's separate isn't it?
US & Israel Vs Iran but only Israel Vs Lebanon.
If he has actually got Israel to agree and comply with a ceasefire with Lebanon then I'll give him credit for that one.
He could end Starmers premiership on Tuesday .
If anyone at No. 10 is reading, this deflection doesn't work, generally it just makes people even more annoyed.