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  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,146
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    Fact free drivel from a bitter old man. Rawnsley, not IanB2.
    Ooh, is it a game of Spot The Fact?

    I reckon there are at leave five verifiable bits of information in there. Which is five more than a typical Boris Johnson column over the years.

    How many can you find?
    And probably more in the original article, as my heavy editing intends to pull out the argumentation, leaving the supporting statements for PB'ers to work out for yourselves
    Your wholesale cut and pasting of Rawnsley, every week, is also clearly illegal, infringes Guardian copyright (about which they are getting increasingly angsty as they edge towards a paywall). I am quite surprised the mods haven’t had a menacing letter from the Guardian’s lawyers. They will do eventually
    Rawnsley is Tortoise now, which is already paywalled.
    What would the Guardian paywall? Viner has eradicated any decent content, it's just nepo-clickbait and late-middleaged soft porn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    edited April 12
    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    How Russia and China became the winners of Trump's Iran war... with NATO, Europe and US losing out
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15718199/How-Russia-China-winners-Trumps-Iran-war-NATO-Europe-US-losing-out.html

    Also has Pakistan as a winner and India a loser and Israel and Saudi also in those losing out as the regime remains in place.

    Trump once he launched the strikes should either have gone in with groundtroops and removed the regime or he should never have bothered attacking Iran at all.

    Instead the regime remains in place and he has just replaced the old Ayatollah with the new and increased oil prices
    Was it ever about nuclear weapons or regime. Seems the Israelis reckon it was about the control of China's oil supplies. They provided the cover so the US could try to usurp control which they might still attempt. Watch China and the appearance of additional defence apparatus that appears in Iran.

    As an aside glad we're 86% renewables today.
    Trump even failed on that as Iran have now shown they can control the Straits of Hormuz.

    At least George W Bush toppled regimes of nations he attacked and finished what he started.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,420
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Brixian59 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case.

    As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
    Adsolutely this.

    The EU debate has bedevilled the Tories for 30 years. Brexit has not solved it.

    The Tories have 2 options

    Go back to where they are best, most effective and most electable the CENTRE ground as a Centre soft Right Party and thrive.

    Continue to try to out-nasty Farage and Co, and die a slow unedifying death!
    The demographics of the Tory vote are terrible, with a million of their 2024 voters meeting their maker by 2029.

    They need to be able to attract some working age voters to replace them, and they won't get them via euroscepticism.

    The Reform vote is younger, albeit not by much, and is made up of 2 fairly coherent groups: the hardcore racists that used to vote BNP, and a large group of the disaffected who feel that the country has left them behind. I cannot see that support lasting long in a Farage led government which is going to implode very quickly.

    So the prospects for Rejoin are not for the next GE, but rather the one afterwards in the early 2030's. By then the Tory party will either be history or euro-pragmatic and Faragism exposed as the snake oil that it is.
    We are finding in Epping Forest where in most seats it is a straight fight between Tories and Reform we are getting some younger LD and Labour voters tactically willing to lend Conservative candidates their vote to beat Reform who would never normally vote Tory.

    Remember though most voters over 47 voted to Leave the EU, it was not just pensioners who backed Brexit and many younger voters don't want to rejoin the full EU and are worried about uncontrolled immigration, especially young working class men
    The projected 324 seats for Reform is a mirage - out on the horizan but never reachable. Reform v The Rest. Much like Trump voters wanting to "own" the Libtards, Reform voters want to "own" The Rest. When they realise The Rest aren't going to let them get power, many will sit on their hands come the general election.

    But before that, we have the locals - where they can vote to rail against the Gods who don't fill their pot-holes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,924
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Brixian59 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case.

    As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
    Adsolutely this.

    The EU debate has bedevilled the Tories for 30 years. Brexit has not solved it.

    The Tories have 2 options

    Go back to where they are best, most effective and most electable the CENTRE ground as a Centre soft Right Party and thrive.

    Continue to try to out-nasty Farage and Co, and die a slow unedifying death!
    The demographics of the Tory vote are terrible, with a million of their 2024 voters meeting their maker by 2029.

    They need to be able to attract some working age voters to replace them, and they won't get them via euroscepticism.

    The Reform vote is younger, albeit not by much, and is made up of 2 fairly coherent groups: the hardcore racists that used to vote BNP, and a large group of the disaffected who feel that the country has left them behind. I cannot see that support lasting long in a Farage led government which is going to implode very quickly.

    So the prospects for Rejoin are not for the next GE, but rather the one afterwards in the early 2030's. By then the Tory party will either be history or euro-pragmatic and Faragism exposed as the snake oil that it is.
    We are finding in Epping Forest where in most seats it is a straight fight between Tories and Reform we are getting some younger LD and Labour voters tactically willing to lend Conservative candidates their vote to beat Reform who would never normally vote Tory.

    Remember though most voters over 47 voted to Leave the EU, it was not just pensioners who backed Brexit and many younger voters don't want to join the full EU and are worried about uncontrolled immigration, especially young working class men
    By the time we rejoin the EU it will be back to the era of Auf Wiedersehen Pet with those men wanting to go to the EU to get better paid work...
    Swiss workers are the highest paid in Europe and not in the EU
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,193
    HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    How Russia and China became the winners of Trump's Iran war... with NATO, Europe and US losing out
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15718199/How-Russia-China-winners-Trumps-Iran-war-NATO-Europe-US-losing-out.html

    Also has Pakistan as a winner and India a loser and Israel and Saudi also in those losing out as the regime remains in place.

    Trump once he launched the strikes should either have gone in with groundtroops and removed the regime or he should never have bothered attacking Iran at all.

    Instead the regime remains in place and he has just replaced the old Ayatollah with the new and increased oil prices
    Was it ever about nuclear weapons or regime. Seems the Israelis reckon it was about the control of China's oil supplies. They provided the cover so the US could try to usurp control which they might still attempt. Watch China and the appearance of additional defence apparatus that appears in Iran.

    As an aside glad we're 86% renewables today.
    Trump even failed on that as Iran have now shown they can control the Straits of Hormuz.
    Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz will accelerate the gulf countries to divert oil and gas overland and even longer term a new canal
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,618
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    Talk of the devil and here I am

    You slightly misconstrue me. I’ve said - often playfully - that a much more right wing EU would be more tempting. And it would. But I’ve also said time and again that the practical obstacles in place of rejoining are so enormous - from calling and winning a referendum to avoiding a veto from anyone in the EU - no sane government will even risk trying. And an insane government will lose that referendum

    The Remainers are best to aim for single market and free movement. That’s as good as it will get for them

    Besides, such huge changes are coming down the line, geopolitical to technological, I think the idea will seem quaintly irrelevant very soon
    Like so many things, it's not really about the EU - it's about us and our values and our domestic battles.

    Many Rejoiners like the EU because they believe it stands for things they care about, like free movement, internationalism and progressive liberalism.

    If it became more about strict immigration control, military commitments, cultural conservatism and a thwarting of identity politics, we'd hear far less about it.
    Again, I disagree.
    It's already moving in that direction. And if anything it's making some conservatives muse about the possible future attractiveness of rejoin.

    In any event, while liberal democracy is encoded in the EU constitution, it doesn't mandate liberal politics; just democratic politics.
    You disagree with anything that doesn't conform to the conclusions you've already reached.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,937
    Is Amol Rajan a racist for saying that Indian civilisation is in his children’s blood?

    Isn’t it implicit in his statement that British civilisation isn’t in their blood?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,618

    Too often bitter old remainers bang on about bits of Brexit which are really important to them - passport queues and freedom of movement for Brits in Europe that hardly any one used. Then it’s on to the issue of Erasmus as if student exchange ground to a halt in 2020 (and I’ve imagined the 20 odd exchange students I’ve hosted since then).
    The economic damage of Brexit is impossible to disentangle from covid, the war in Ukraine and now the current imbroglio. Yet many assert that if only we were in the EU growth would return (just as it, er hasn’t in our competition European neighbours).
    What do remainers want from being back in the EU? For many I suspect it’s about being back in the right thinking club of European good chaps.
    And as for the ridiculous idea that Brexit has failed? That is true in a narrow economic sense of sunlit uplands, but Brexit was always more than just economics.
    Many of us simpletons have been educated that free trade is not the same as frictionless trade, but it’s also true that the friction is a choice, mainly of the EU. It cannot be beyond the wit of man to computerise trade documents. Rather I suspect the documents, the process, are part of the EU punishment to the U.K. for having the temerity to leave. It could be made easier.

    They want an end to the social embarrassment they feel when they travel to Europe and speak to Europeans.
    I'm not embarrassed, I didn't vote for it.
    Oh yes, you are. And you do.

    I have seen thousands of your type, and observed them closely abroad.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,193
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Brixian59 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case.

    As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
    Adsolutely this.

    The EU debate has bedevilled the Tories for 30 years. Brexit has not solved it.

    The Tories have 2 options

    Go back to where they are best, most effective and most electable the CENTRE ground as a Centre soft Right Party and thrive.

    Continue to try to out-nasty Farage and Co, and die a slow unedifying death!
    The demographics of the Tory vote are terrible, with a million of their 2024 voters meeting their maker by 2029.

    They need to be able to attract some working age voters to replace them, and they won't get them via euroscepticism.

    The Reform vote is younger, albeit not by much, and is made up of 2 fairly coherent groups: the hardcore racists that used to vote BNP, and a large group of the disaffected who feel that the country has left them behind. I cannot see that support lasting long in a Farage led government which is going to implode very quickly.

    So the prospects for Rejoin are not for the next GE, but rather the one afterwards in the early 2030's. By then the Tory party will either be history or euro-pragmatic and Faragism exposed as the snake oil that it is.
    We are finding in Epping Forest where in most seats it is a straight fight between Tories and Reform we are getting some younger LD and Labour voters tactically willing to lend Conservative candidates their vote to beat Reform who would never normally vote Tory.

    Remember though most voters over 47 voted to Leave the EU, it was not just pensioners who backed Brexit and many younger voters don't want to join the full EU and are worried about uncontrolled immigration, especially young working class men
    By the time we rejoin the EU it will be back to the era of Auf Wiedersehen Pet with those men wanting to go to the EU to get better paid work...
    Swiss workers are the highest paid in Europe and not in the EU
    When considering that how much higher is their cost of living
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,877

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    Talk of the devil and here I am

    You slightly misconstrue me. I’ve said - often playfully - that a much more right wing EU would be more tempting. And it would. But I’ve also said time and again that the practical obstacles in place of rejoining are so enormous - from calling and winning a referendum to avoiding a veto from anyone in the EU - no sane government will even risk trying. And an insane government will lose that referendum

    The Remainers are best to aim for single market and free movement. That’s as good as it will get for them

    Besides, such huge changes are coming down the line, geopolitical to technological, I think the idea will seem quaintly irrelevant very soon
    Like so many things, it's not really about the EU - it's about us and our values and our domestic battles.

    Many Rejoiners like the EU because they believe it stands for things they care about, like free movement, internationalism and progressive liberalism.

    If it became more about strict immigration control, military commitments, cultural conservatism and a thwarting of identity politics, we'd hear far less about it.
    Again, I disagree.
    It's already moving in that direction. And if anything it's making some conservatives muse about the possible future attractiveness of rejoin.

    In any event, while liberal democracy is encoded in the EU constitution, it doesn't mandate liberal politics; just democratic politics.
    You disagree with anything that doesn't conform to the conclusions you've already reached.
    Same as the rest of us, then.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,542

    MattW said:

    Roger said:
    Not sure which bit!

    The most interesting point she made was why does the press “gobble up” Leavitt’s lies? They are so self evidently gaslighting but she still gets reported with respect
    In a slightly similar vein ... but more politely.

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/RBqlbPrY3h8
    Claiming the idea of healthcare as a right and the telephone as Canadian contributions to the world? Hmmh.
    It's not one I had really considered (and my degree is Telecomms in part so I perhaps should have).

    Looking into it, the electric telephone is very defensible as Canadian universal healthcare perhaps less so (Russia, Germany) - but both absolutely fine for the purposes of winding up importunate people from the USA !

    Bell's insight came from experiments he was doing with multi-channel telegraph systems, by using filtered frequency bands.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,920

    Is Amol Rajan a racist for saying that Indian civilisation is in his children’s blood?

    Isn’t it implicit in his statement that British civilisation isn’t in their blood?

    No, it makes him a bland reciter of meaningless clichés, which is part of the brand.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,922
    edited April 12
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Brixian59 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case.

    As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
    Adsolutely this.

    The EU debate has bedevilled the Tories for 30 years. Brexit has not solved it.

    The Tories have 2 options

    Go back to where they are best, most effective and most electable the CENTRE ground as a Centre soft Right Party and thrive.

    Continue to try to out-nasty Farage and Co, and die a slow unedifying death!
    The demographics of the Tory vote are terrible, with a million of their 2024 voters meeting their maker by 2029.

    They need to be able to attract some working age voters to replace them, and they won't get them via euroscepticism.

    The Reform vote is younger, albeit not by much, and is made up of 2 fairly coherent groups: the hardcore racists that used to vote BNP, and a large group of the disaffected who feel that the country has left them behind. I cannot see that support lasting long in a Farage led government which is going to implode very quickly.

    So the prospects for Rejoin are not for the next GE, but rather the one afterwards in the early 2030's. By then the Tory party will either be history or euro-pragmatic and Faragism exposed as the snake oil that it is.
    We are finding in Epping Forest where in most seats it is a straight fight between Tories and Reform we are getting some younger LD and Labour voters tactically willing to lend Conservative candidates their vote to beat Reform who would never normally vote Tory.

    Remember though most voters over 47 voted to Leave the EU, it was not just pensioners who backed Brexit and many younger voters don't want to join the full EU and are worried about uncontrolled immigration, especially young working class men
    By the time we rejoin the EU it will be back to the era of Auf Wiedersehen Pet with those men wanting to go to the EU to get better paid work...
    Swiss workers are the highest paid in Europe and not in the EU
    We aren't Switzerland - we are a large country on the outer part of Europe who has seen no real productivity improvements in 17 years because we don't invest, we just throw more people at keeping ancient factory lines working.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 22,035

    Too often bitter old remainers bang on about bits of Brexit which are really important to them - passport queues and freedom of movement for Brits in Europe that hardly any one used. Then it’s on to the issue of Erasmus as if student exchange ground to a halt in 2020 (and I’ve imagined the 20 odd exchange students I’ve hosted since then).
    The economic damage of Brexit is impossible to disentangle from covid, the war in Ukraine and now the current imbroglio. Yet many assert that if only we were in the EU growth would return (just as it, er hasn’t in our competition European neighbours).
    What do remainers want from being back in the EU? For many I suspect it’s about being back in the right thinking club of European good chaps.
    And as for the ridiculous idea that Brexit has failed? That is true in a narrow economic sense of sunlit uplands, but Brexit was always more than just economics.
    Many of us simpletons have been educated that free trade is not the same as frictionless trade, but it’s also true that the friction is a choice, mainly of the EU. It cannot be beyond the wit of man to computerise trade documents. Rather I suspect the documents, the process, are part of the EU punishment to the U.K. for having the temerity to leave. It could be made easier.

    They want an end to the social embarrassment they feel when they travel to Europe and speak to Europeans.
    I'm not embarrassed, I didn't vote for it.
    Oh yes, you are. And you do.

    I have seen thousands of your type, and observed them closely abroad.
    I see you’re in “I know better than you” mode
  • I’m out and about in deepest Anatolia. Searching for one of the most remarkable sites in prehistory

    And the driver appears to be lost
  • Is Amol Rajan a racist for saying that Indian civilisation is in his children’s blood?

    Isn’t it implicit in his statement that British civilisation isn’t in their blood?

    He’s not racist. He’s just right

    But yes it also means native Brits must be able to say the same
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,193
    Ed Davey having a car crash with Victoria Derbyshire who looks utterly non plussed by his answers
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,451

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    You go for Rejoin, you restart the war.
    Which is a good reason not to fight that war now. Luke 14:31-32 applies, as it really should have done to Trump's adventures in Iran.

    Not now, which is the conclusion of Rawnsley's piece.
    He’s also writing for his audience which tends to include a greater proportion of people who haven’t moved on
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,451
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s only early but quite a big jump in turnout for the Hungarian election compared to recent ones .

    Turnout at 7:00 AM EEST

    2010: 1.61%
    2014: 1.64%
    2018: 2.24%
    2022: 1.82%
    2026: 3.46%

    I may be reading too much into it, but IIRC Orban does particularly well in the diaspora. Presumably those would just be added at the end of the day, or would they come at the beginning?

    Just trying to figure out if we can read anything into who the likely beneficiaries of high turnout are.
    The turnout figure doesn’t include the diaspora .

    Overseas voters who still have a residential address in Hungary vote at embassies , these are counted as part of the totals in their Hungarian counties .

    The others who no longer have a Hungarian address normally postal vote .

    Their votes only apply to the national list .
    Thx
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,695

    Ed Davey having a car crash with Victoria Derbyshire who looks utterly non plussed by his answers

    In your view - he's doing all right but not on top form.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,451

    malcolmg said:

    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what

    just means you had venison
    Stopped being funny about 5 years ago, Malcolm.
    It’s your umbrage that is funny, not the joke…
  • Too often bitter old remainers bang on about bits of Brexit which are really important to them - passport queues and freedom of movement for Brits in Europe that hardly any one used. Then it’s on to the issue of Erasmus as if student exchange ground to a halt in 2020 (and I’ve imagined the 20 odd exchange students I’ve hosted since then).
    The economic damage of Brexit is impossible to disentangle from covid, the war in Ukraine and now the current imbroglio. Yet many assert that if only we were in the EU growth would return (just as it, er hasn’t in our competition European neighbours).
    What do remainers want from being back in the EU? For many I suspect it’s about being back in the right thinking club of European good chaps.
    And as for the ridiculous idea that Brexit has failed? That is true in a narrow economic sense of sunlit uplands, but Brexit was always more than just economics.
    Many of us simpletons have been educated that free trade is not the same as frictionless trade, but it’s also true that the friction is a choice, mainly of the EU. It cannot be beyond the wit of man to computerise trade documents. Rather I suspect the documents, the process, are part of the EU punishment to the U.K. for having the temerity to leave. It could be made easier.

    They want an end to the social embarrassment they feel when they travel to Europe and speak to Europeans.
    I'm not embarrassed, I didn't vote for it.
    Oh yes, you are. And you do.

    I have seen thousands of your type, and observed them closely abroad.
    I see you’re in “I know better than you” mode

    What do tired old embittered remainers want?

    No idea.

    I know I would spend the next decade in Italy if I had chance though.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,220
    stodge said:

    Ed Davey having a car crash with Victoria Derbyshire who looks utterly non plussed by his answers

    In your view - he's doing all right but not on top form.
    Vikki Derbyshire is by current standards an outstanding interview.

    Treats everyone the same, no political bias, gives them time to answer but comes back firmly but fairly.

    The polar opposite of Boris lover KuenSSberg
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,193
    stodge said:

    Ed Davey having a car crash with Victoria Derbyshire who looks utterly non plussed by his answers

    In your view - he's doing all right but not on top form.
    He did not accept that this crisis has increased debt interest costs, and could not answer Derbyshire's question how a billion to farmers would immediately reduce food prices
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,472

    HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    How Russia and China became the winners of Trump's Iran war... with NATO, Europe and US losing out
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15718199/How-Russia-China-winners-Trumps-Iran-war-NATO-Europe-US-losing-out.html

    Also has Pakistan as a winner and India a loser and Israel and Saudi also in those losing out as the regime remains in place.

    Trump once he launched the strikes should either have gone in with groundtroops and removed the regime or he should never have bothered attacking Iran at all.

    Instead the regime remains in place and he has just replaced the old Ayatollah with the new and increased oil prices
    Was it ever about nuclear weapons or regime. Seems the Israelis reckon it was about the control of China's oil supplies. They provided the cover so the US could try to usurp control which they might still attempt. Watch China and the appearance of additional defence apparatus that appears in Iran.

    As an aside glad we're 86% renewables today.
    Trump even failed on that as Iran have now shown they can control the Straits of Hormuz.
    Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz will accelerate the gulf countries to divert oil and gas overland and even longer term a new canal
    A canal to Fujairah or Oman? There are some significant hills in the way, so quite a challenging project.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,828
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    MelonB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    EXCL: Labour MP Afzal Khan claimed he "briefly" attended event — but left upon realising Lord Ahmed, jailed for child sex crimes against girl as young as 4, was there. Now video shows the pair smiling walking down red carpet and sitting next to each other

    https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/2042999401967194486?s=20

    Gabriel Pogrund seems to be doing a lot of legwork past few months on stories.

    Most of it complete bollox

    Usually racially motivated bollox

    Wouldn't be on the payroll of Mossad by any chance??
    Throwing out comments of that nature can cause problems for the site
    You do seem to like threatening posters you don't approve of or who disagree with your narratives with the looming spectre of sanctions.
    I am not threatening anyone

    Do you agree with his comment
    It isn't a comment I would have made. A question does not constitute a direct allegation. You do this quite a lot with particular posters you don't seem to like. I am sure the mods can decide when posters have crossed the line without advice shouted from the touchline.
    Nobody has tried more on this forum to have Leon sanctioned than you, and you have admitted to multiple times flaging posts

    I have never flagged a post but will comment on something that I consider may go over the line
    Leon sometimes needs flagging, which he'd probably admit himself.
    Only if you take him seriously. Most of the time his tongue is so firmly in his cheek it’s sticking out of his ear.
    Ah, but is it?

    I don’t mind being flagged. It’s a badge of honour because flagging is so passively aggressively pathetic

    Constantly asking via hints, or outright demands, for someone to be banned - eg me - genuinely IS a bit annoying. It’s mainly @Mexicanpete and @bondegezou and dweebs like that. I’ve noticed there is a 100% overlap between these people and people I have publicly humiliated on the site

    Hey ho. The PB pub is still open and life rocks on. And today I ate - I think - ny first ever plate of goat meat (which surprises me) and it was absolutely delicious. Better than lamb maybe. Very very very slowly cooked in a huge Turkish roasting dish up in the Taurus mountains. Yummy

    Wait.

    You've never had goat before? Did you never go to a music festival in the 1990s
    We’ve all surely eaten goat, without realising. “Mutton”. Actual goat is very cheap down Deptford Market so I get it when I want a sort of stewy Middle Eastern thing.
    I ate horse once. It was on the lunch canteen menu at a techy conference I went to in Spain in early 1990s. All perfectly normal out there apparently. Or was then.

    I am now a vegetarian.
    I've had horse. Kind of meh to be honest.
    Do you remember the Les Routier menus in France pre the Euro. Three courses and a carafe of red wine for 10f. The main being unnamed red meat. The truckers loved it, particularly the carafe of red wine*.

    * It might have been half a carafe.
    I remember French holidays aged 8 where my mum was obsessed with going to Les Routiers restaurants. None stick in my mind so I don’t believe they were really anything special. But then my mum was a pretty good cook so I had fairly high standards

    What I do remember is my first introduction to excellent French patisseries. Again I was about eight. It was a chocolate eclair bought and eaten in Collioure. Omg. It was possibly the loveliest thing I’d ever eaten up to that point in my life

    I kind of miss that revelation about French food. Now it is just generally nice food with flaws - British is often better and certainly more inventive. So there isn’t that excitement when you cross the channel

    Many of the very worst meals I’ve had in the last 10 years have been in France
    Half and half with a curry?

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,451

    Is Amol Rajan a racist for saying that Indian civilisation is in his children’s blood?

    Isn’t it implicit in his statement that British civilisation isn’t in their blood?

    No - it’s not exclusive
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    Sitting on the TGV speeding through the misty green Morvan on the way to Paris, I’m glad that Brexit at least didn’t take away my freedom to come and spend time here in France.

    I’d be all for going the whole hog and joining Schengen and the Euro, even going ahead with that French merger that was mooted in the 50s, but I appreciate that’s a niche viewpoint.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,451
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Roger said:
    Not sure which bit!

    The most interesting point she made was why does the press “gobble up” Leavitt’s lies? They are so self evidently gaslighting but she still gets reported with respect
    In a slightly similar vein ... but more politely.

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/RBqlbPrY3h8
    Claiming the idea of healthcare as a right and the telephone as Canadian contributions to the world? Hmmh.
    It's not one I had really considered (and my degree is Telecomms in part so I perhaps should have).

    Looking into it, the electric telephone is very defensible as Canadian universal healthcare perhaps less so (Russia, Germany) - but both absolutely fine for the purposes of winding up importunate people from the USA !

    Bell's insight came from experiments he was doing with multi-channel telegraph systems, by using filtered frequency bands.
    I tend to think of Bell as Scottish, but he was living in Canada at the time he invented the telephone, building on his earlier experimental work
  • TresTres Posts: 3,669
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    Fact free drivel from a bitter old man. Rawnsley, not IanB2.
    Ooh, is it a game of Spot The Fact?

    I reckon there are at leave five verifiable bits of information in there. Which is five more than a typical Boris Johnson column over the years.

    How many can you find?
    And probably more in the original article, as my heavy editing intends to pull out the argumentation, leaving the supporting statements for PB'ers to work out for yourselves
    Your wholesale cut and pasting of Rawnsley, every week, is also clearly illegal, infringes Guardian copyright (about which they are getting increasingly angsty as they edge towards a paywall). I am quite surprised the mods haven’t had a menacing letter from the Guardian’s lawyers. They will do eventually
    if you could read as well as you could write you'd be far more interesting, one to ponder
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,220

    Ed Davey having a car crash with Victoria Derbyshire who looks utterly non plussed by his answers

    Clearly puiqed your annoyance by backing Starmer for not rushing headlong in to a crazy war like Badenoch and Farage would have done.

    Of course we'd be seeing hearse a rolling through Wootten Basset on a daily basis and probable terrorist attacks on our Cities if the Trump ass licking Nigel and Kamikaze had held Office.

    Thosr pronouncrments will haunt them forever tainted by blood lust in support of the war criminal Trump and Genocidal Netanyahu, who wants to wipe out every Arab within a 100 mile exclusion zone of his illegal boundaries.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,193

    HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    How Russia and China became the winners of Trump's Iran war... with NATO, Europe and US losing out
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15718199/How-Russia-China-winners-Trumps-Iran-war-NATO-Europe-US-losing-out.html

    Also has Pakistan as a winner and India a loser and Israel and Saudi also in those losing out as the regime remains in place.

    Trump once he launched the strikes should either have gone in with groundtroops and removed the regime or he should never have bothered attacking Iran at all.

    Instead the regime remains in place and he has just replaced the old Ayatollah with the new and increased oil prices
    Was it ever about nuclear weapons or regime. Seems the Israelis reckon it was about the control of China's oil supplies. They provided the cover so the US could try to usurp control which they might still attempt. Watch China and the appearance of additional defence apparatus that appears in Iran.

    As an aside glad we're 86% renewables today.
    Trump even failed on that as Iran have now shown they can control the Straits of Hormuz.
    Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz will accelerate the gulf countries to divert oil and gas overland and even longer term a new canal
    A canal to Fujairah or Oman? There are some significant hills in the way, so quite a challenging project.
    Oman as far as I know
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,877

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    You go for Rejoin, you restart the war.
    Which is a good reason not to fight that war now. Luke 14:31-32 applies, as it really should have done to Trump's adventures in Iran.

    Not now, which is the conclusion of Rawnsley's piece.
    He’s also writing for his audience which tends to include a greater proportion of people who haven’t moved on
    Again, like the rest of us then.

    My lightbulb moment on Brexit was when someone pointed out the age profile in the 1975 referendum. Then it was the young who were more likely to vote Out, and the same cohort (old but not really old) were peak Leave in 2016.

    For whatever reason, Britons born between about 1950 and 1970 are significantly more Eurosceptic than their predecessors and successors. They may be right, they may be wrong, but like the rest of us, they are certain. Most of us don't change our minds about things, after all. Consider how few truly swing voters there are.

    The consequences of this are left as an exercise for the reader. They will be revealed at the rate of one year per year.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,388

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    MelonB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    EXCL: Labour MP Afzal Khan claimed he "briefly" attended event — but left upon realising Lord Ahmed, jailed for child sex crimes against girl as young as 4, was there. Now video shows the pair smiling walking down red carpet and sitting next to each other

    https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/2042999401967194486?s=20

    Gabriel Pogrund seems to be doing a lot of legwork past few months on stories.

    Most of it complete bollox

    Usually racially motivated bollox

    Wouldn't be on the payroll of Mossad by any chance??
    Throwing out comments of that nature can cause problems for the site
    You do seem to like threatening posters you don't approve of or who disagree with your narratives with the looming spectre of sanctions.
    I am not threatening anyone

    Do you agree with his comment
    It isn't a comment I would have made. A question does not constitute a direct allegation. You do this quite a lot with particular posters you don't seem to like. I am sure the mods can decide when posters have crossed the line without advice shouted from the touchline.
    Nobody has tried more on this forum to have Leon sanctioned than you, and you have admitted to multiple times flaging posts

    I have never flagged a post but will comment on something that I consider may go over the line
    Leon sometimes needs flagging, which he'd probably admit himself.
    Only if you take him seriously. Most of the time his tongue is so firmly in his cheek it’s sticking out of his ear.
    Ah, but is it?

    I don’t mind being flagged. It’s a badge of honour because flagging is so passively aggressively pathetic

    Constantly asking via hints, or outright demands, for someone to be banned - eg me - genuinely IS a bit annoying. It’s mainly @Mexicanpete and @bondegezou and dweebs like that. I’ve noticed there is a 100% overlap between these people and people I have publicly humiliated on the site

    Hey ho. The PB pub is still open and life rocks on. And today I ate - I think - ny first ever plate of goat meat (which surprises me) and it was absolutely delicious. Better than lamb maybe. Very very very slowly cooked in a huge Turkish roasting dish up in the Taurus mountains. Yummy

    Wait.

    You've never had goat before? Did you never go to a music festival in the 1990s
    We’ve all surely eaten goat, without realising. “Mutton”. Actual goat is very cheap down Deptford Market so I get it when I want a sort of stewy Middle Eastern thing.
    I ate horse once. It was on the lunch canteen menu at a techy conference I went to in Spain in early 1990s. All perfectly normal out there apparently. Or was then.

    I am now a vegetarian.
    I've had horse. Kind of meh to be honest.
    Do you remember the Les Routier menus in France pre the Euro. Three courses and a carafe of red wine for 10f. The main being unnamed red meat. The truckers loved it, particularly the carafe of red wine*.

    * It might have been half a carafe.
    I remember French holidays aged 8 where my mum was obsessed with going to Les Routiers restaurants. None stick in my mind so I don’t believe they were really anything special. But then my mum was a pretty good cook so I had fairly high standards

    What I do remember is my first introduction to excellent French patisseries. Again I was about eight. It was a chocolate eclair bought and eaten in Collioure. Omg. It was possibly the loveliest thing I’d ever eaten up to that point in my life

    I kind of miss that revelation about French food. Now it is just generally nice food with flaws - British is often better and certainly more inventive. So there isn’t that excitement when you cross the channel

    Many of the very worst meals I’ve had in the last 10 years have been in France
    Half and half with a curry?

    "Three courses and a carafe of red wine for 10f. The main being unnamed red meat. The truckers loved it, particularly the carafe of red wine*.

    * It might have been half a carafe."

    Definitely remember those places from my days travelling and camping around France - mid 1980s.

    It was a half carafe is my memory.

    We stopped at one where the first course was soup and they they had made a big pot of the stuff. We arrived just before the truckers and my mate somehow assumed that the big pot was just for our table and demolished most of it.

    Then the truckers came in.

    The pot was supposed to be passed from table to table and each person would take a ladle full.

    Red faces!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,930
    Ha. Days of terrible sleep. I just misspelt 'below' as 'people'. Impressively wrong.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,923

    This is Brussels we are talking about though.

    If the EU were pragmatic negotiators, we would still be members.

    They will say we signed up to Rejoin without an option to leave. So we cannot leave, however big Farage's toddler tantrum.

    The EU that remainers talk up is every bit as much of a fantasy as the visions put forth by UKIP/Reform.

    It's been blindingly obvious for decades that essentially the UK wants only the trade bits of EU membership, plus maybe some cooperation on a limited number of issues, and absolutely does not want ever closer union, which is why we have opposed almost every attempt to integrate the EU.

    What the UK wants is something more EFTA-ish, we could probably be happy with that, and stop arguing about full membership. It would be a hundred times more sensible to work towards that than to rejoin a body where we would almost immediately be at loggerheads with the other members.

    All that aside we've got way bigger problems to deal with than the bloody EU, which in the grand scheme of things appears to be utterly sidelined by what is happening in the world.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,220

    stodge said:

    Ed Davey having a car crash with Victoria Derbyshire who looks utterly non plussed by his answers

    In your view - he's doing all right but not on top form.
    He did not accept that this crisis has increased debt interest costs, and could not answer Derbyshire's question how a billion to farmers would immediately reduce food prices
    Giving a billion to farmers to spaff up to JCB whose Owner owes that much in unpaid Tax would be a folly.

    Now if it paid Bamfords tax bill he might be on to something.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,920

    HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    How Russia and China became the winners of Trump's Iran war... with NATO, Europe and US losing out
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15718199/How-Russia-China-winners-Trumps-Iran-war-NATO-Europe-US-losing-out.html

    Also has Pakistan as a winner and India a loser and Israel and Saudi also in those losing out as the regime remains in place.

    Trump once he launched the strikes should either have gone in with groundtroops and removed the regime or he should never have bothered attacking Iran at all.

    Instead the regime remains in place and he has just replaced the old Ayatollah with the new and increased oil prices
    Was it ever about nuclear weapons or regime. Seems the Israelis reckon it was about the control of China's oil supplies. They provided the cover so the US could try to usurp control which they might still attempt. Watch China and the appearance of additional defence apparatus that appears in Iran.

    As an aside glad we're 86% renewables today.
    Trump even failed on that as Iran have now shown they can control the Straits of Hormuz.
    Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz will accelerate the gulf countries to divert oil and gas overland and even longer term a new canal
    A canal to Fujairah or Oman? There are some significant hills in the way, so quite a challenging project.
    Also I'm not sure how a fixed pipeline or tankers on a canal are less immune to drones.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,193
    Brixian59 said:

    stodge said:

    Ed Davey having a car crash with Victoria Derbyshire who looks utterly non plussed by his answers

    In your view - he's doing all right but not on top form.
    He did not accept that this crisis has increased debt interest costs, and could not answer Derbyshire's question how a billion to farmers would immediately reduce food prices
    Giving a billion to farmers to spaff up to JCB whose Owner owes that much in unpaid Tax would be a folly.

    Now if it paid Bamfords tax bill he might be on to something.
    That is Davey's proposal
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,388
    "This gap between American expectations and Iranian self-perception now lies at the heart of a growing strategic deadlock."


    "Meanwhile, Iran remains defiant. The regime shows no indication that it is prepared to yield, certainly not under pressure, and not at this stage.

    Strategy deadlock."

    https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2043171265813315725

    Part of a long tweet.

  • Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    Fact free drivel from a bitter old man. Rawnsley, not IanB2.
    You're on of the ideologically unpersuadables I noted earlier, I think ?
    The fact is that you're in a minority.
    I really like the iconoclastic approach but it would be more useful if it was backed up by strong arguments. There’s lots of things Lucky believes that I would love to agree with. But I need to be convinced.

    :(
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363

    HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    How Russia and China became the winners of Trump's Iran war... with NATO, Europe and US losing out
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15718199/How-Russia-China-winners-Trumps-Iran-war-NATO-Europe-US-losing-out.html

    Also has Pakistan as a winner and India a loser and Israel and Saudi also in those losing out as the regime remains in place.

    Trump once he launched the strikes should either have gone in with groundtroops and removed the regime or he should never have bothered attacking Iran at all.

    Instead the regime remains in place and he has just replaced the old Ayatollah with the new and increased oil prices
    Was it ever about nuclear weapons or regime. Seems the Israelis reckon it was about the control of China's oil supplies. They provided the cover so the US could try to usurp control which they might still attempt. Watch China and the appearance of additional defence apparatus that appears in Iran.

    As an aside glad we're 86% renewables today.
    Trump even failed on that as Iran have now shown they can control the Straits of Hormuz.
    Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz will accelerate the gulf countries to divert oil and gas overland and even longer term a new canal
    A canal to Fujairah or Oman? There are some significant hills in the way, so quite a challenging project.
    Also I'm not sure how a fixed pipeline or tankers on a canal are less immune to drones.
    They need to move the oil reserves. Relocate them somewhere safer like Norway.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,195

    "This gap between American expectations and Iranian self-perception now lies at the heart of a growing strategic deadlock."


    "Meanwhile, Iran remains defiant. The regime shows no indication that it is prepared to yield, certainly not under pressure, and not at this stage.

    Strategy deadlock."

    https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2043171265813315725

    Part of a long tweet.

    Why should they yield. The US and Israel don’t hold all the cards here.

    Both sides need some compromise

    The Chinese should lean on the Iranians.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,828

    Ha. Days of terrible sleep. I just misspelt 'below' as 'people'. Impressively wrong.

    Easy mistake to make. Just blame autocorrect.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,749
    That Brexit was a mistake has become more or less undeniable. We don't need Andrew Rawnsley to tell us this but fair enough if he feels the urge. I'm not, as a Remainer, too hung up on Rejoin though. It's a nice aspiration, and yes I hope to see it, but it doesn't matter much to me compared to the gratifying buzz of being proved right.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,195

    HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    How Russia and China became the winners of Trump's Iran war... with NATO, Europe and US losing out
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15718199/How-Russia-China-winners-Trumps-Iran-war-NATO-Europe-US-losing-out.html

    Also has Pakistan as a winner and India a loser and Israel and Saudi also in those losing out as the regime remains in place.

    Trump once he launched the strikes should either have gone in with groundtroops and removed the regime or he should never have bothered attacking Iran at all.

    Instead the regime remains in place and he has just replaced the old Ayatollah with the new and increased oil prices
    Was it ever about nuclear weapons or regime. Seems the Israelis reckon it was about the control of China's oil supplies. They provided the cover so the US could try to usurp control which they might still attempt. Watch China and the appearance of additional defence apparatus that appears in Iran.

    As an aside glad we're 86% renewables today.
    Trump even failed on that as Iran have now shown they can control the Straits of Hormuz.
    Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz will accelerate the gulf countries to divert oil and gas overland and even longer term a new canal
    I wonder if Israel’s recent sabre rattling towards Turkey is party about ensuring any pipeline goes via them and not Turkey, Bibi has been taking about pipelines through Israel last week.
  • Brexit was in my view a very bad decision.

    However, I think rejoining would achieve very little and in some ways actively make things worse.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,828
    Taz said:

    "This gap between American expectations and Iranian self-perception now lies at the heart of a growing strategic deadlock."


    "Meanwhile, Iran remains defiant. The regime shows no indication that it is prepared to yield, certainly not under pressure, and not at this stage.

    Strategy deadlock."

    https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2043171265813315725

    Part of a long tweet.

    Why should they yield. The US and Israel don’t hold all the cards here.

    Both sides need some compromise

    The Chinese should lean on the Iranians.
    I suspect Trump and Hegseth will be opining that they owe themselves the satisfaction of a mushroom cloud over Tehran.

    We know that with Dumb and Dumber running the show this is how it probably ends.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,208
    AnneJGP said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case.

    As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
    If it's genuinely an age-related divide, then best to wait a little longer until all us oldies are gone. Then the later generations can offer the EU their complete allegiance without any of us naysayers getting in the way.

    Good morning, everyone.
    Old retired Brexiteers dying off is certainly a factor in the decreased support for Brexit, together with the perception by many that the "sunlit uplands" were a mirage.

    However I think Trump is the key factor pushing the country more strongly back into the European orbit.
  • TazTaz Posts: 28,195

    Taz said:

    "This gap between American expectations and Iranian self-perception now lies at the heart of a growing strategic deadlock."


    "Meanwhile, Iran remains defiant. The regime shows no indication that it is prepared to yield, certainly not under pressure, and not at this stage.

    Strategy deadlock."

    https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2043171265813315725

    Part of a long tweet.

    Why should they yield. The US and Israel don’t hold all the cards here.

    Both sides need some compromise

    The Chinese should lean on the Iranians.
    I suspect Trump and Hegseth will be opining that they owe themselves the satisfaction of a mushroom cloud over Tehran.

    We know that with Dumb and Dumber running the show this is how it probably ends.
    Bart will get the popcorn in.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,960

    Greens drop candidate after JN exposes 7 Oct conspiracy posts and hostage tribute attack

    https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/greens-axe-candidate-after-jn-exposes-7-oct-conspiracy-posts-and-hostage-balloon-attack/

    Your joking, not another one...

    Cllr Hau-Yu Tam calls black people “coconuts”, and yet you’ve still endorsed her, praised her, invited her to your launch, and proudly took pictures with her.

    https://x.com/LondonLabour/status/2043238865268257090?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,694

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    Talk of the devil and here I am

    You slightly misconstrue me. I’ve said - often playfully - that a much more right wing EU would be more tempting. And it would. But I’ve also said time and again that the practical obstacles in place of rejoining are so enormous - from calling and winning a referendum to avoiding a veto from anyone in the EU - no sane government will even risk trying. And an insane government will lose that referendum

    The Remainers are best to aim for single market and free movement. That’s as good as it will get for them

    Besides, such huge changes are coming down the line, geopolitical to technological, I think the idea will seem quaintly irrelevant very soon
    Like so many things, it's not really about the EU - it's about us and our values and our domestic battles.

    Many Rejoiners like the EU because they believe it stands for things they care about, like free movement, internationalism and progressive liberalism.

    If it became more about strict immigration control, military commitments, cultural conservatism and a thwarting of identity politics, we'd hear far less about it.
    Again, I disagree.
    It's already moving in that direction. And if anything it's making some conservatives muse about the possible future attractiveness of rejoin.

    In any event, while liberal democracy is encoded in the EU constitution, it doesn't mandate liberal politics; just democratic politics.
    You disagree with anything that doesn't conform to the conclusions you've already reached.
    You seem remarkably flexible on the issue yourself.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,960
    Team Burnham Is Getting Organised Ahead Of The May Elections

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/burnham-bides-his-time

    Time to crash the clown car again.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,828

    Brexit was in my view a very bad decision.

    However, I think rejoining would achieve very little and in some ways actively make things worse.

    Rejoining cannot be considered whilst we have Reform and a Euro- hostile Conservative Party as potentially the most likely parties to form the next Government. Waste of time.

    It might take decades to resolve from a UK perspective, by which time the EU might look a lot weaker anyway as nationalist Presidents and Prime Ministers take control.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,220

    Greens drop candidate after JN exposes 7 Oct conspiracy posts and hostage tribute attack

    https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/greens-axe-candidate-after-jn-exposes-7-oct-conspiracy-posts-and-hostage-balloon-attack/

    Your joking, not another one...

    Cllr Hau-Yu Tam calls black people “coconuts”, and yet you’ve still endorsed her, praised her, invited her to your launch, and proudly took pictures with her.

    https://x.com/LondonLabour/status/2043238865268257090?s=20
    Be better if Jewish News was focusing on the genocide in Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon, where accolytes of Netanyahu have pledged an Arab free exclusion zone than nit picking about local council candidates in the UK.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,960
    edited April 12
    Brixian59 said:

    Greens drop candidate after JN exposes 7 Oct conspiracy posts and hostage tribute attack

    https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/greens-axe-candidate-after-jn-exposes-7-oct-conspiracy-posts-and-hostage-balloon-attack/

    Your joking, not another one...

    Cllr Hau-Yu Tam calls black people “coconuts”, and yet you’ve still endorsed her, praised her, invited her to your launch, and proudly took pictures with her.

    https://x.com/LondonLabour/status/2043238865268257090?s=20
    Be better if Jewish News was focusing on the genocide in Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon, where accolytes of Netanyahu have pledged an Arab free exclusion zone than nit picking about local council candidates in the UK.
    Checks twitter account, ain't "the Jews" this time....its your own team sticking the boot in this time. You are increasing sounding somewhat antisemtic with your lashing out.
  • Team Burnham Is Getting Organised Ahead Of The May Elections

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/burnham-bides-his-time

    Time to crash the clown car again.

    Burnham’s odds must have increased, as others step back.

    But how does he get a seat? Any up for grabs soon?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,208

    nico67 said:

    It’s only early but quite a big jump in turnout for the Hungarian election compared to recent ones .

    Turnout at 7:00 AM EEST

    2010: 1.61%
    2014: 1.64%
    2018: 2.24%
    2022: 1.82%
    2026: 3.46%

    I may be reading too much into it, but IIRC Orban does particularly well in the diaspora. Presumably those would just be added at the end of the day, or would they come at the beginning?

    Just trying to figure out if we can read anything into who the likely beneficiaries of high turnout are.
    I don't know the processs by which the diaspora get registered or how they cast their votes but I suspect that this is where the skullduggery could be centred.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,828

    Team Burnham Is Getting Organised Ahead Of The May Elections

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/burnham-bides-his-time

    Time to crash the clown car again.

    Third time lucky. Or should we also include the official (where a vote was taken) failed attempts?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,960
    edited April 12

    Team Burnham Is Getting Organised Ahead Of The May Elections

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/burnham-bides-his-time

    Time to crash the clown car again.

    Burnham’s odds must have increased, as others step back.

    But how does he get a seat? Any up for grabs soon?
    His mate already did him a favour and Starmer was 2 steps ahead and the electorate 3 steps ahead.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,828

    Team Burnham Is Getting Organised Ahead Of The May Elections

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/burnham-bides-his-time

    Time to crash the clown car again.

    Burnham’s odds must have increased, as others step back.

    But how does he get a seat? Any up for grabs soon?
    His mate already did him a favour and Starmer was 2 steps ahead and the electorate 3 steps ahead.
    Out- politicked by Starmer is not the mark of a genius political strategist.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,208

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    You go for Rejoin, you restart the war.
    I don't think the war has ever gone away. There is certainly no settled opinion that we made the right decision, quite the opposite.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,749

    Is Amol Rajan a racist for saying that Indian civilisation is in his children’s blood?

    Isn’t it implicit in his statement that British civilisation isn’t in their blood?

    No, it makes him a bland reciter of meaningless clichés, which is part of the brand.
    Is the right answer. Blood does not contain any particular civilisation or indeed the lack of it. People like to say this sort of thing and it's often harmless so maybe I should let it go. But I just can't. Exploding hackneyed nonsense is in my DNA.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,325
    edited April 12
    Latest Hungarian turnout at 11 am.

    37.98%

    In 2022 it was 25.8%

    The previous record was 30.27% in 2002.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,960
    Polymarket don't think its in any doubt about winner in Hungarian election.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,535
    kinabalu said:

    That Brexit was a mistake has become more or less undeniable. We don't need Andrew Rawnsley to tell us this but fair enough if he feels the urge. I'm not, as a Remainer, too hung up on Rejoin though. It's a nice aspiration, and yes I hope to see it, but it doesn't matter much to me compared to the gratifying buzz of being proved right.

    I deny it. As do many others. So I am afraid your buzz is meaningless as far as I am concerned.

    Nothing that has happened since Brexit has made me think we made the wrong decision. Indeed many things including the fractured nature of the EU response to Ukraine has proved to me we were right.

    We heard yesterday of Britain leading the world in gene technology in wheat production. Part of a massively important industry that will save lives but simply cannot exist inside the EU and which the EU are seeking to block. How many more of these examples are there that get no news because the narrative from the Government and its useful idiots is that nothing good can have come from Brexit?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,986

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    Talk of the devil and here I am

    You slightly misconstrue me. I’ve said - often playfully - that a much more right wing EU would be more tempting. And it would. But I’ve also said time and again that the practical obstacles in place of rejoining are so enormous - from calling and winning a referendum to avoiding a veto from anyone in the EU - no sane government will even risk trying. And an insane government will lose that referendum

    The Remainers are best to aim for single market and free movement. That’s as good as it will get for them

    Besides, such huge changes are coming down the line, geopolitical to technological, I think the idea will seem quaintly irrelevant very soon
    Like so many things, it's not really about the EU - it's about us and our values and our domestic battles.

    Many Rejoiners like the EU because they believe it stands for things they care about, like free movement, internationalism and progressive liberalism.

    If it became more about strict immigration control, military commitments, cultural conservatism and a thwarting of identity politics, we'd hear far less about it.
    Again, I disagree.
    It's already moving in that direction. And if anything it's making some conservatives muse about the possible future attractiveness of rejoin.

    In any event, while liberal democracy is encoded in the EU constitution, it doesn't mandate liberal politics; just democratic politics.
    Encoding the four freedoms is inherently liberal.
    Liberal in a European sense of the word, i.e. pro-market capitalism.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,986
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Brixian59 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case.

    As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
    Adsolutely this.

    The EU debate has bedevilled the Tories for 30 years. Brexit has not solved it.

    The Tories have 2 options

    Go back to where they are best, most effective and most electable the CENTRE ground as a Centre soft Right Party and thrive.

    Continue to try to out-nasty Farage and Co, and die a slow unedifying death!
    The demographics of the Tory vote are terrible, with a million of their 2024 voters meeting their maker by 2029.

    They need to be able to attract some working age voters to replace them, and they won't get them via euroscepticism.

    The Reform vote is younger, albeit not by much, and is made up of 2 fairly coherent groups: the hardcore racists that used to vote BNP, and a large group of the disaffected who feel that the country has left them behind. I cannot see that support lasting long in a Farage led government which is going to implode very quickly.

    So the prospects for Rejoin are not for the next GE, but rather the one afterwards in the early 2030's. By then the Tory party will either be history or euro-pragmatic and Faragism exposed as the snake oil that it is.
    We are finding in Epping Forest where in most seats it is a straight fight between Tories and Reform we are getting some younger LD and Labour voters tactically willing to lend Conservative candidates their vote to beat Reform who would never normally vote Tory.

    Remember though most voters over 47 voted to Leave the EU, it was not just pensioners who backed Brexit and many younger voters don't want to join the full EU and are worried about uncontrolled immigration, especially young working class men
    By the time we rejoin the EU it will be back to the era of Auf Wiedersehen Pet with those men wanting to go to the EU to get better paid work...
    Swiss workers are the highest paid in Europe and not in the EU
    … but surrounded by and closely aligned with the EU.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,599

    NEW THREAD

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,986

    Is Amol Rajan a racist for saying that Indian civilisation is in his children’s blood?

    Isn’t it implicit in his statement that British civilisation isn’t in their blood?

    Why? Can’t both be in their blood?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,142
    Reasonably dry description of where the talks which have collapsed got to but from one of the most reliable US commentators.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqTc11PkcU4
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,535
    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    Rawnsley is right about mistakes that persist in being punishing for years.

    Joining the EEC was one such mistake. It took over 40 years of punishment to correct that one.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,828

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    Rawnsley is right about mistakes that persist in being punishing for years.

    Joining the EEC was one such mistake. It took over 40 years of punishment to correct that one.
    Richard, I respect your position on sovereignty but I believe you are wrong. The EU was and is a terribly cumbersome and corrupt organisation, designed by the French for the French, but so much good came from the EU, not least war foes operating as trading partners harmonising best social practice across the 28 nation states, until we left.

    The mere fact that Putin wanted and wants to further destabilise the EU is testament to a key component of how it has worked since the Treaty of Rome.

    Yes there is a lot of rule breaking like Italian steel tariff nonsense, but making it work better from within would have resolved that rather than Farage's Brexit.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,483

    Too often bitter old remainers bang on about bits of Brexit which are really important to them - passport queues and freedom of movement for Brits in Europe that hardly any one used. Then it’s on to the issue of Erasmus as if student exchange ground to a halt in 2020 (and I’ve imagined the 20 odd exchange students I’ve hosted since then).
    The economic damage of Brexit is impossible to disentangle from covid, the war in Ukraine and now the current imbroglio. Yet many assert that if only we were in the EU growth would return (just as it, er hasn’t in our competition European neighbours).
    What do remainers want from being back in the EU? For many I suspect it’s about being back in the right thinking club of European good chaps.
    And as for the ridiculous idea that Brexit has failed? That is true in a narrow economic sense of sunlit uplands, but Brexit was always more than just economics.
    Many of us simpletons have been educated that free trade is not the same as frictionless trade, but it’s also true that the friction is a choice, mainly of the EU. It cannot be beyond the wit of man to computerise trade documents. Rather I suspect the documents, the process, are part of the EU punishment to the U.K. for having the temerity to leave. It could be made easier.

    They want an end to the social embarrassment they feel when they travel to Europe and speak to Europeans.
    I'm not embarrassed, I didn't vote for it.
    Oh yes, you are. And you do.

    I have seen thousands of your type, and observed them closely abroad.
    I'm Scottish and we didn't vote for it, so no, I have zero embarrassment.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,483

    Is Amol Rajan a racist for saying that Indian civilisation is in his children’s blood?

    Isn’t it implicit in his statement that British civilisation isn’t in their blood?

    Why? Can’t both be in their blood?
    His wife is a white British woman so presumably yes.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,142

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    Rawnsley is right about mistakes that persist in being punishing for years.

    Joining the EEC was one such mistake. It took over 40 years of punishment to correct that one.
    Richard, I respect your position on sovereignty but I believe you are wrong. The EU was and is a terribly cumbersome and corrupt organisation, designed by the French for the French, but so much good came from the EU, not least war foes operating as trading partners harmonising best social practice across the 28 nation states, until we left.

    The mere fact that Putin wanted and wants to further destabilise the EU is testament to a key component of how it has worked since the Treaty of Rome.

    Yes there is a lot of rule breaking like Italian steel tariff nonsense, but making it work better from within would have resolved that rather than Farage's Brexit.
    Plus 28 guaranteed liberal democracies. Not many places you can say that about.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,251
    ...
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    Fact free drivel from a bitter old man. Rawnsley, not IanB2.
    Ooh, is it a game of Spot The Fact?

    I reckon there are at leave five verifiable bits of information in there. Which is five more than a typical Boris Johnson column over the years.

    How many can you find?
    And probably more in the original article, as my heavy editing intends to pull out the argumentation, leaving the supporting statements for PB'ers to work out for yourselves
    Your wholesale cut and pasting of Rawnsley, every week, is also clearly illegal, infringes Guardian copyright (about which they are getting increasingly angsty as they edge towards a paywall). I am quite surprised the mods haven’t had a menacing letter from the Guardian’s lawyers. They will do eventually
    Rawnsley is TLDR for me.
    I'd welcome a non infringing version cut down to a paragraph; two at most.
    What is it that interests you (or anyone) about a weekly rehearsal of reheated centrist tropes?

    I have very firm views on the right, but I can't say would be particularly excited by a weekly dose of Kelvin Mackenzie or Douglas Murray droning them out like a call to prayer. I am interested in why things are how they are, and what can be done about. This column has one central point - the idea of rejoining is more popular here than it once was, but the EU might extract a heavy price for it. That is hardly insightful and takes a sentence to write, not a whole column.

    As I've said before, remoaner arguments are all emotive and all based on metaphor and hyperbole. In this one we have 'cast ourselves off from Europe'. I suppose it sounds better than 'ceased to be members of a political bloc and negotiated a free trade deal with it upon exit'. There's also a deep seam of national self-loathing that is inherent in the worst cases of remoanerism: 'One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it.' - I have never heard anyone make this point, ever. This comes purely out of a weird recess of Rawnsley's psychy that can only find temporary relief when the UK is seen to be losing to the EU.

    In short 'Get over it' wasn't a self-serving bit of snark, it was genuinely good advice.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,251

    Team Burnham Is Getting Organised Ahead Of The May Elections

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/burnham-bides-his-time

    Time to crash the clown car again.

    Burnham’s odds must have increased, as others step back.

    But how does he get a seat? Any up for grabs soon?
    Joining Reform?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,791
    edited April 12
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    "This gap between American expectations and Iranian self-perception now lies at the heart of a growing strategic deadlock."


    "Meanwhile, Iran remains defiant. The regime shows no indication that it is prepared to yield, certainly not under pressure, and not at this stage.

    Strategy deadlock."

    https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2043171265813315725

    Part of a long tweet.

    Why should they yield. The US and Israel don’t hold all the cards here.

    Both sides need some compromise

    The Chinese should lean on the Iranians.
    I suspect Trump and Hegseth will be opining that they owe themselves the satisfaction of a mushroom cloud over Tehran.

    We know that with Dumb and Dumber running the show this is how it probably ends.
    Bart will get the popcorn in.
    There is a middle-ground between mushroom cloud over Tehran and a ceasefire that leaves the Mullahs in control and Hormuz closed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,467

    malcolmg said:

    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what

    just means you had venison
    Stopped being funny about 5 years ago, Malcolm.
    OK eeyore
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,467
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Brixian59 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile, this morning’s Rawnsley:

    It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.

    Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.

    One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.

    Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.

    I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.

    I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand

    I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
    I disagree.

    It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
    Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.

    You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
    Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case.

    As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
    Adsolutely this.

    The EU debate has bedevilled the Tories for 30 years. Brexit has not solved it.

    The Tories have 2 options

    Go back to where they are best, most effective and most electable the CENTRE ground as a Centre soft Right Party and thrive.

    Continue to try to out-nasty Farage and Co, and die a slow unedifying death!
    The demographics of the Tory vote are terrible, with a million of their 2024 voters meeting their maker by 2029.

    They need to be able to attract some working age voters to replace them, and they won't get them via euroscepticism.

    The Reform vote is younger, albeit not by much, and is made up of 2 fairly coherent groups: the hardcore racists that used to vote BNP, and a large group of the disaffected who feel that the country has left them behind. I cannot see that support lasting long in a Farage led government which is going to implode very quickly.

    So the prospects for Rejoin are not for the next GE, but rather the one afterwards in the early 2030's. By then the Tory party will either be history or euro-pragmatic and Faragism exposed as the snake oil that it is.
    We are finding in Epping Forest where in most seats it is a straight fight between Tories and Reform we are getting some younger LD and Labour voters tactically willing to lend Conservative candidates their vote to beat Reform who would never normally vote Tory.

    Remember though most voters over 47 voted to Leave the EU, it was not just pensioners who backed Brexit and many younger voters don't want to join the full EU and are worried about uncontrolled immigration, especially young working class men
    By the time we rejoin the EU it will be back to the era of Auf Wiedersehen Pet with those men wanting to go to the EU to get better paid work...
    Swiss workers are the highest paid in Europe and not in the EU
    We aren't Switzerland - we are a large country on the outer part of Europe who has seen no real productivity improvements in 17 years because we don't invest, we just throw more people at keeping ancient factory lines working.
    Or lying in their beds
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,618

    malcolmg said:

    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what

    just means you had venison
    Stopped being funny about 5 years ago, Malcolm.
    It’s your umbrage that is funny, not the joke…
    Stop being a twat.
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