Hope our Poll-iceman doesn’t mind these being posted. They’re relatively bad for Reform so should be ok
🆕 Our latest MRP for the Sunday Times estimates Reform UK would be just a seat shy of a majority and far above any other party but for the first time down on a previous MRP estimate. The Greens achieve their highest score we’ve recorded on 22 seats
I'm actually surprised the LDs woud retain so many in that situation.
The old Liberals could get 20%+ across the country and win a mere handful of seats. The Liberal Democrats have 12-15% but its concentrated into the seats they hold. The majorities many Lib Dem MPs have will make it pretty hard to beat them unless the party's national support utterly collapsed. Ironically the Lib Dems have learned to game FPTP so well that it now makes them very resilient.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
Probably asked the Iranian delegation why they hadn't said thank you.
JD Vance: "The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. And I think that's bad news for Iran much more than it's bad news for the US. So, we go back to the US having not come to an agreement ... they have chosen not to accept our terms" https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043140972318535840
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
Probably asked the Iranian delegation why they hadn't said thank you.
JD Vance: "The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. And I think that's bad news for Iran much more than it's bad news for the US. So, we go back to the US having not come to an agreement ... they have chosen not to accept our terms" https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043140972318535840
Probably wouldn't let them open their mouths long enough to!
Trump doesn't want peace, of course. He wants victory. The problem (and it is a very real problem) is he doesn't understand there is no way of achieving what he would actually consider as a victory.
Equally, I'm assuming there that 'victory' includes something that keeps his activities as outlined in the Epstein files out of the press. Which is also unlikely to be possible.
This is why it's not smart to elect presidents with advanced dementia.
Probably asked the Iranian delegation why they hadn't said thank you.
JD Vance: "The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. And I think that's bad news for Iran much more than it's bad news for the US. So, we go back to the US having not come to an agreement ... they have chosen not to accept our terms" https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043140972318535840
Typical US blowhard, no stamina. Sadly even less surprising than Israel ignoring the ceasefire.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Probably asked the Iranian delegation why they hadn't said thank you.
JD Vance: "The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. And I think that's bad news for Iran much more than it's bad news for the US. So, we go back to the US having not come to an agreement ... they have chosen not to accept our terms" https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043140972318535840
Typical US blowhard, no stamina. Sadly even less surprising than Israel ignoring the ceasefire.
Meanwhile, the Secretary of State spent his time attending a UFC fight with Trump.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Maybe and Trump has certainly caused many to rethink, but for me we need a much wider alliance on both defence and trade
I do not expect it will happen overnight, but across the globe generally new alliances are needed to face upto Russia and China
There are so many splits and factions within religious denominations it's impossible to keep track of, but at least they could give left wing splinter groups a run for their money in the complex arcane differences department.
It is the nature of Protestant Churches to be fissile, but still to work together. After all once you split over one issue, it is possible to split over others. This is particularly so in Churches like this where there is a congregational structure with a deliberately weak central organisation giving considerable flexibility of doctrine and belief.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
By "smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet" I assume he means standing up for our national interests when the EU pisses all over them?
If the EU really does think that, it's extraordinarily un-self-aware, hypocritical and anti-democratic thinking on their part, even by its standards. It shows a phenomenal lack of self-awareness because the right to leave the EU is in the Constitution which it spent several years deceitfully ramming down voters' throats against the expressed democratic wishes of many of them. It is hypocritical because lots of member states stand up for their national interests, and many have big anti-EU parties. And above all it is anti-democratic because a democracy that can't change its mind isn't a democracy any more. If being in the EU no longer serves the UK's interests, why should it stay?
Sadly, having worked alongside Eurocrats, I find it all to easy to believe they really do think that way. They are pure fanatics, contempuous of democracy, and failing to understand how anybody could fail to see the world in their cramped and distorted way.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case.
As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case,
Yes, it is clearly an unsettled question, which in itself shows how Brexit has failed.
Apparently the issue of the Strait of Hormuz which wasn’t an issue before the war and Israel refusing to stop bombing Lebanon caused the impasse .
I expect one of two things . Another ultimatum from Trump or agreement to hold further talks .
Not sure why there was such a rush to conclude things in just one day .
Trump and Vance will only accept an effective surrender, and that they weren’t going to get. Neither of them have the appetite for days of talking around the details, when they have given themselves no negotiating room whatsoever. If the markets turn down on Monday, they may have to think again. And in Vance’s case, since he never supported this fiasco in the first place, he probably thinks someone else should be sorting out the mess.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case,
Yes, it is clearly an unsettled question, which in itself shows how Brexit has failed.
Good morning, everyone.
Given it was also unsettled when we were a member, I'd suggest the only reasonable conclusion is that the UK is very split (and was before we left) on the matter of the EU.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case.
As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
Adsolutely this.
The EU debate has bedevilled the Tories for 30 years. Brexit has not solved it.
The Tories have 2 options
Go back to where they are best, most effective and most electable the CENTRE ground as a Centre soft Right Party and thrive.
Continue to try to out-nasty Farage and Co, and die a slow unedifying death!
On a related matter, the Tories 2022-2024 made a host of unfunded promises and commitments - spent the alleged reserves 3 times over and created a massive scorched earth scenario.
We now have the current Tory Twatter Queen making almost daily "populist" unfunded promises to try to keep up with Farage, seemingly happy to spend the Two Child Cap and the cessation of the green Levy over and over and over and over and over and over and over again!
It might kid the intellectually challenged for a few months but if they lose north of 500 Council seats as a main opposition when the Government are losing 2000 plus, it has to be curtains for the Tory Leader and the Tory Party on its current Kemikaze journey.
I see the IDF is using its Gaza playbook in the Lebanon .
“Rights groups fear the tactic of “domicide” trialled in Gaza, where entire areas are made uninhabitable, is being used again.
The Israeli military has said they are targeting Hezbollah infrastructure such as tunnels and military facilities, which it claims the armed group has embedded in civilian homes, through these demolitions.”
We’ve seen this excuse used many times before . But it’s clearly to ensure that Lebanese can’t return and effectively it’s just stealing more territory.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case.
As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
If it's genuinely an age-related divide, then best to wait a little longer until all us oldies are gone. Then the later generations can offer the EU their complete allegiance without any of us naysayers getting in the way.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
By "smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet" I assume he means standing up for our national interests when the EU pisses all over them?
If the EU really does think that, it's extraordinarily un-self-aware, hypocritical and anti-democratic thinking on their part, even by its standards. It shows a phenomenal lack of self-awareness because the right to leave the EU is in the Constitution which it spent several years deceitfully ramming down voters' throats against the expressed democratic wishes of many of them. It is hypocritical because lots of member states stand up for their national interests, and many have big anti-EU parties. And above all it is anti-democratic because a democracy that can't change its mind isn't a democracy any more. If being in the EU no longer serves the UK's interests, why should it stay?
Sadly, having worked alongside Eurocrats, I find it all to easy to believe they really do think that way. They are pure fanatics, contempuous of democracy, and failing to understand how anybody could fail to see the world in their cramped and distorted way.
I too have spent some time in Brussels in various conversations and have a slight disagreement about the comment 'contemptuous'. The European (Napoleonic) system is top down. It's their form of democracy unlike the common law/bottom up version in the Anglosphere. Unfortunately, economic geography means we can't ignore them and have to do deals we might not like - but only enough to keep our form of democracy - including AV.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
It probably is at the moment, and will likely remain so far a decade or two yet. But the EU is still there, nobody else has joined us in wanting to leave and our outness is only cemented in the minds of the most loyally partisan.
In the meantime, Brexit is a ghastly heirloom from a not-yet-dead relative. It's no use, it takes up space, it's actually pretty ugly, but you can't suggest getting rid of it because it will cause an argument and an angry rewriting of wills.
A decanter, perhaps, but one with really nasty historical connotations.
Apparently the next move could be for the USA to out blockade the blockade !
So stopping all traffic from the Strait of Hormuz which currently allows the Iranians to export their oil . Of course this will seriously piss off China and other countries that still get those deliveries.
In the short term it’s likely to cause a big spike in oil prices . And the USA will then have no room for any manoeuvre, it will have to keep the blockade until Iran caves in .
This seems risky if the Iranians dig in as the global economic impact will be much worse .
Apparently the next move could be for the USA to out blockade the blockade !
So stopping all traffic from the Strait of Hormuz which currently allows the Iranians to export their oil . Of course this will seriously piss off China and other countries that still get those deliveries.
In the short term it’s likely to cause a big spike in oil prices . And the USA will then have no room for any manoeuvre, it will have to keep the blockade until Iran caves in .
This seems risky if the Iranians dig in as the global economic impact will be much worse .
Options
1. Bomb Iran into surrender 2. Bomb Israel into surrender 3. Walk (or sail) away claiming victory and leave others to come to some sort of accommodation.
A prospective candidate went in Havering a few weeks back. Perhaps being a magnet for all the Corbynites disgusted by Horrible Old Starmer wasn't such a bright idea after all.
The most interesting point she made was why does the press “gobble up” Leavitt’s lies? They are so self evidently gaslighting but she still gets reported with respect
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Talk of the devil and here I am
You slightly misconstrue me. I’ve said - often playfully - that a much more right wing EU would be more tempting. And it would. But I’ve also said time and again that the practical obstacles in place of rejoining are so enormous - from calling and winning a referendum to avoiding a veto from anyone in the EU - no sane government will even risk trying. And an insane government will lose that referendum
The Remainers are best to aim for single market and free movement. That’s as good as it will get for them
Besides, such huge changes are coming down the line, geopolitical to technological, I think the idea will seem quaintly irrelevant very soon
Thus far I've only really heard about Newsom, liked by some for being punchier in response to Trump than past Democrats, but also hated by a lot of them for not being progressive enough.
Ossoff is still pretty young isn't he? Though not so much as AOC.
Don Jr and Ivanka make the list, but not poor Eric? (Ivanka used to seem like the most prominent of the Trump children, but has faded more into the background whilst her husband grifts his way around the world)
She was completely NFI from her social circle after the last trip so made a conscious choice to avoid things this time
Centrist Democrats see Beshear as one of their top hopes for 2028. I've done a zoom with him and he was a bit folksy and tepid for my liking, but a Democrat who can win in Kentucky (even if it is in part down to family connections- his dad was previously Governor of Kentucky) must have some ability to win with independents. I certainly agree he is a good trading bet.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
Up to a point. It was hardly a settled view that we had to leave, so I don't really get the asymmetry.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
Up to a point. It was hardly a settled view that we had to leave, so I don't really get the asymmetry.
Then try getting it. You think they want us in - then out again a couple of years later?
The only way we come back in to the EU is if we are locked in - that a member can use Article 50 but once. Which we have used.
That in itself will kill Rejoin in a referendum. Or kill any party that took us in on that basis without a referendum.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I don't see the UK relationship being important enough for the EU to put a massive priority into it for the next 5-10 years; we aren't going anywhere. And if Nigel F has gone into the political dustbin of history and Reform UK has gone pop, it will make it less awkward. And if that does not happen in that fashion, it may be less awkward to have us at arms' length.
The Eastern, and South Eastern, flanks are more important institutionally, politically and existentially. I think there is a need for the EU to prioritise Ukraine and the other Balkan, or near Balkan, countries. A revised accession process needs to be in place and working. There is also a need to have in place effective measures to deal with single rogue members, such as Hungary - where the EU institutional optimism has been overcooked, as was USA paralysis of the IMO. What the USA will try and do to freeze NATO and the UN has yet to be seen.
Plus there are the current US and Russian regimes their deliberate attempts to undermine the EU, and to roll back international institutions and international law. On the other hand it may become easier if Trump is politically semi-castrated after the Mid-Terms.
Those strike me as being more important for the EU in the next decade. Their knitting to stick to is not the UK relationship, although we may make it more straightforward by being agreeable.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case.
As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
Adsolutely this.
The EU debate has bedevilled the Tories for 30 years. Brexit has not solved it.
The Tories have 2 options
Go back to where they are best, most effective and most electable the CENTRE ground as a Centre soft Right Party and thrive.
Continue to try to out-nasty Farage and Co, and die a slow unedifying death!
The demographics of the Tory vote are terrible, with a million of their 2024 voters meeting their maker by 2029.
They need to be able to attract some working age voters to replace them, and they won't get them via euroscepticism.
The Reform vote is younger, albeit not by much, and is made up of 2 fairly coherent groups: the hardcore racists that used to vote BNP, and a large group of the disaffected who feel that the country has left them behind. I cannot see that support lasting long in a Farage led government which is going to implode very quickly.
So the prospects for Rejoin are not for the next GE, but rather the one afterwards in the early 2030's. By then the Tory party will either be history or euro-pragmatic and Faragism exposed as the snake oil that it is.
They finish voting at 7PM Hungary time then we’ll get exit polls quite quickly after that .
And the riots within a couple of hours? Fidesz are clearly not going to accept defeat and it doesn't look as though Magyar is expecting a clean poll.
For that reason it needs to be a clear win . If it’s close it’s much easier for Orban to shout steal.
I'm fairly sure he will do that anyway even if the result means TSE is burbling about docksides.
Mugabe had an absolute thrashing in 2008 and that didn't stop him claiming the vote was rigged (which was true - he would have lost by an even huger margin had he not done so) and that he was the real winner (which he wasn't) and used violence to stay in power.
Hungary has seldom been a democracy. Only really since 1989, arguably, given the 1946 election was heavily rigged too. I think we're all far too complacent about what Orban will get up to.
Apparently the next move could be for the USA to out blockade the blockade !
So stopping all traffic from the Strait of Hormuz which currently allows the Iranians to export their oil . Of course this will seriously piss off China and other countries that still get those deliveries.
In the short term it’s likely to cause a big spike in oil prices . And the USA will then have no room for any manoeuvre, it will have to keep the blockade until Iran caves in .
This seems risky if the Iranians dig in as the global economic impact will be much worse .
Options
1. Bomb Iran into surrender 2. Bomb Israel into surrender 3. Walk (or sail) away claiming victory and leave others to come to some sort of accommodation.
Trump needs a win. Good job there's always Cuba...
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I don't see the UK relationship being important enough for the EU to put a massive priority into it for the next 5-10 years; we aren't going anywhere. And if Nigel F has gone into the political dustbin of history and Reform UK has gone pop, it will make it less awkward. And if that does not happen in that fashion, it may be less awkward to have us at arms' length.
The Eastern, and South Eastern, flanks are more important institutionally, politically and existentially. I think there is a need for the EU to prioritise Ukraine and the other Balkan, or near Balkan, countries. A revised accession process needs to be in place and working. There is also a need to have in place effective measures to deal with single rogue members, such as Hungary - where the EU institutional optimism has been overcooked, as was USA paralysis of the IMO. What the USA will try and do to freeze NATO and the UN has yet to be seen.
Plus there are the current US and Russian regimes their deliberate attempts to undermine the EU, and to roll back international institutions and international law. On the other hand it may become easier if Trump is politically semi-castrated after the Mid-Terms.
Those strike me as being more important for the EU in the next decade. Their knitting to stick to is not the UK relationship, although we may make it more straightforward by being agreeable.
I think we will have slow Rejoin, salami slicing away at Brexit until nothing remains. That process has already started, albeit in a very feebly pusilanimous Starmerite way. The EU will be happy with that.
Of course Rejoin is not a simple solution for our economic and social woes. Much of the damage has already occured and those businesses driven out by Brexit will reappear slowly if at all.
I look forward to the RefUKers using the forensic skills they sharpened on Rayner to similarly obsess over Tice.
I'm not great on Corporation tax, but companies don't pay tax on dividends declared. That's the job of the entity/person receiving those dividends to do so on their self assessed tax return.
Whilst I don't obsess over Tice, the declaration that the company hasn't paid the 'tax' is correct. No tax is due.
REITs are different - they have an obligation to withhold tax (for a PID) and transfer (or “pay”) it to the HMRC. That is deducted from the shareholder’s ultimate liability so it’s a different meaning of the word “pay”.
However the potential tax saving for Tice is dependent on whether the Jersey trust pays UK tax. For his personal holding Tice says he paid the full income tax although he could have had a timing advantage (ie use of the “extra” 20% of cash fir the time between when the REIT would have withheld it and when he settled his income tax but that’s not a huge amount)
The most interesting point she made was why does the press “gobble up” Leavitt’s lies? They are so self evidently gaslighting but she still gets reported with respect
I may be reading too much into it, but IIRC Orban does particularly well in the diaspora. Presumably those would just be added at the end of the day, or would they come at the beginning?
Just trying to figure out if we can read anything into who the likely beneficiaries of high turnout are.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
Up to a point. It was hardly a settled view that we had to leave, so I don't really get the asymmetry.
Because the EU doesn’t want the distraction of a member that is only half committed
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
Fact free drivel from a bitter old man. Rawnsley, not IanB2.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
Up to a point. It was hardly a settled view that we had to leave, so I don't really get the asymmetry.
Then try getting it. You think they want us in - then out again a couple of years later?
The only way we come back in to the EU is if we are locked in - that a member can use Article 50 but once. Which we have used.
That in itself will kill Rejoin in a referendum. Or kill any party that took us in on that basis without a referendum.
That mechanism doesn't work though; if the EU were to forbid leaving nicely, a future post-Faragist government would make such merry hell that the UK would be expelled. Since that's obvious to a middle-aged science teacher, I doubt they would seek to poison the well of Brejoin in that way.
The most interesting point she made was why does the press “gobble up” Leavitt’s lies? They are so self evidently gaslighting but she still gets reported with respect
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
Up to a point. It was hardly a settled view that we had to leave, so I don't really get the asymmetry.
Then try getting it. You think they want us in - then out again a couple of years later?
The only way we come back in to the EU is if we are locked in - that a member can use Article 50 but once. Which we have used.
That in itself will kill Rejoin in a referendum. Or kill any party that took us in on that basis without a referendum.
That mechanism doesn't work though; if the EU were to forbid leaving nicely, a future post-Faragist government would make such merry hell that the UK would be expelled. Since that's obvious to a middle-aged science teacher, I doubt they would seek to poison the well of Brejoin in that way.
TBF, they haven't expelled Hungary for breaking every rule going (or France, which has always thought of rulings as applying only when they feel like it).
I don't think just because we would behave like arseholes under Farage we should assume the EU would expel us. They are too obsessed with their project of continent-wide union, a bit like the British with Ireland or France with Algeria. Even when it was causing chaos it required actual violence to enforce separation.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
Fact free drivel from a bitter old man. Rawnsley, not IanB2.
Ooh, is it a game of Spot The Fact?
I reckon there are at leave five verifiable bits of information in there. Which is five more than a typical Boris Johnson column over the years.
Hope our Poll-iceman doesn’t mind these being posted. They’re relatively bad for Reform so should be ok
🆕 Our latest MRP for the Sunday Times estimates Reform UK would be just a seat shy of a majority and far above any other party but for the first time down on a previous MRP estimate. The Greens achieve their highest score we’ve recorded on 22 seats
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
Up to a point. It was hardly a settled view that we had to leave, so I don't really get the asymmetry.
Then try getting it. You think they want us in - then out again a couple of years later?
The only way we come back in to the EU is if we are locked in - that a member can use Article 50 but once. Which we have used.
That in itself will kill Rejoin in a referendum. Or kill any party that took us in on that basis without a referendum.
That mechanism doesn't work though; if the EU were to forbid leaving nicely, a future post-Faragist government would make such merry hell that the UK would be expelled. Since that's obvious to a middle-aged science teacher, I doubt they would seek to poison the well of Brejoin in that way.
TBF, they haven't expelled Hungary for breaking every rule going (or France, which has always thought of rulings as applying only when they feel like it).
I don't think just because we would behave like arseholes under Farage we should assume the EU would expel us. They are too obsessed with their project of continent-wide union, a bit like the British with Ireland or France with Algeria. Even when it was causing chaos it required actual violence to enforce separation.
You've never had a child go all-out to be removed from your classroom?
Also has Pakistan as a winner and India a loser and Israel and Saudi also in those losing out as the regime remains in place.
Trump once he launched the strikes should either have gone in with groundtroops and removed the regime or he should never have bothered attacking Iran at all.
Instead the regime remains in place and he has just replaced the old Ayatollah with the new and increased oil prices
I may be reading too much into it, but IIRC Orban does particularly well in the diaspora. Presumably those would just be added at the end of the day, or would they come at the beginning?
Just trying to figure out if we can read anything into who the likely beneficiaries of high turnout are.
Hungary’s turnout is breaking records: 16.89% by 9am (2022: 10.31%). Areas where the opposition Tisza party did well in last year’s EP vote are overperforming. Urban, strongly anti-Orbán voters—who tend to vote later—are just starting to head to the polls. Follow me for #HungaryElection updates!
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
Aside from being rich in precisely the same cliches we've heard, repeatedly, over the last 10 years there from Rawnsley and his ilk (there is nothing new in that article) it also isn't true.
Brexit isn't the curse that keeps on cursing, and nor does the EU simply not care about us.
Most Europeans both recognise British politics is more complicated on European relations than it is on the continent, and always will be, and want us to have a positive and constructive relationship with them.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I don't see the UK relationship being important enough for the EU to put a massive priority into it for the next 5-10 years; we aren't going anywhere. And if Nigel F has gone into the political dustbin of history and Reform UK has gone pop, it will make it less awkward. And if that does not happen in that fashion, it may be less awkward to have us at arms' length.
The Eastern, and South Eastern, flanks are more important institutionally, politically and existentially. I think there is a need for the EU to prioritise Ukraine and the other Balkan, or near Balkan, countries. A revised accession process needs to be in place and working. There is also a need to have in place effective measures to deal with single rogue members, such as Hungary - where the EU institutional optimism has been overcooked, as was USA paralysis of the IMO. What the USA will try and do to freeze NATO and the UN has yet to be seen.
Plus there are the current US and Russian regimes their deliberate attempts to undermine the EU, and to roll back international institutions and international law. On the other hand it may become easier if Trump is politically semi-castrated after the Mid-Terms.
Those strike me as being more important for the EU in the next decade. Their knitting to stick to is not the UK relationship, although we may make it more straightforward by being agreeable.
I think we will have slow Rejoin, salami slicing away at Brexit until nothing remains. That process has already started, albeit in a very feebly pusilanimous Starmerite way. The EU will be happy with that.
Of course Rejoin is not a simple solution for our economic and social woes. Much of the damage has already occured and those businesses driven out by Brexit will reappear slowly if at all.
We might rejoin the EEA or a CU, I can't see us rejoining the full EU
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
You go for Rejoin, you restart the war.
Which is a good reason not to fight that war now. Luke 14:31-32 applies, as it really should have done to Trump's adventures in Iran.
Not now, which is the conclusion of Rawnsley's piece.
I may be reading too much into it, but IIRC Orban does particularly well in the diaspora. Presumably those would just be added at the end of the day, or would they come at the beginning?
Just trying to figure out if we can read anything into who the likely beneficiaries of high turnout are.
The turnout figure doesn’t include the diaspora .
Overseas voters who still have a residential address in Hungary vote at embassies , these are counted as part of the totals in their Hungarian counties .
The others who no longer have a Hungarian address normally postal vote .
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
Fact free drivel from a bitter old man. Rawnsley, not IanB2.
Ooh, is it a game of Spot The Fact?
I reckon there are at leave five verifiable bits of information in there. Which is five more than a typical Boris Johnson column over the years.
How many can you find?
And probably more in the original article, as my heavy editing intends to pull out the argumentation, leaving the supporting statements for PB'ers to work out for yourselves
Presumably the Rejoiners who have desperately wanting to be in a political union with a country run by Orban will be very disappointed if he is defeated today.
Too often bitter old remainers bang on about bits of Brexit which are really important to them - passport queues and freedom of movement for Brits in Europe that hardly any one used. Then it’s on to the issue of Erasmus as if student exchange ground to a halt in 2020 (and I’ve imagined the 20 odd exchange students I’ve hosted since then). The economic damage of Brexit is impossible to disentangle from covid, the war in Ukraine and now the current imbroglio. Yet many assert that if only we were in the EU growth would return (just as it, er hasn’t in our competition European neighbours). What do remainers want from being back in the EU? For many I suspect it’s about being back in the right thinking club of European good chaps. And as for the ridiculous idea that Brexit has failed? That is true in a narrow economic sense of sunlit uplands, but Brexit was always more than just economics. Many of us simpletons have been educated that free trade is not the same as frictionless trade, but it’s also true that the friction is a choice, mainly of the EU. It cannot be beyond the wit of man to computerise trade documents. Rather I suspect the documents, the process, are part of the EU punishment to the U.K. for having the temerity to leave. It could be made easier.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Talk of the devil and here I am
You slightly misconstrue me. I’ve said - often playfully - that a much more right wing EU would be more tempting. And it would. But I’ve also said time and again that the practical obstacles in place of rejoining are so enormous - from calling and winning a referendum to avoiding a veto from anyone in the EU - no sane government will even risk trying. And an insane government will lose that referendum
The Remainers are best to aim for single market and free movement. That’s as good as it will get for them
Besides, such huge changes are coming down the line, geopolitical to technological, I think the idea will seem quaintly irrelevant very soon
Like so many things, it's not really about the EU - it's about us and our values and our domestic battles.
Many Rejoiners like the EU because they believe it stands for things they care about, like free movement, internationalism and progressive liberalism.
If it became more about strict immigration control, military commitments, cultural conservatism and a thwarting of identity politics, we'd hear far less about it.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case.
As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
Adsolutely this.
The EU debate has bedevilled the Tories for 30 years. Brexit has not solved it.
The Tories have 2 options
Go back to where they are best, most effective and most electable the CENTRE ground as a Centre soft Right Party and thrive.
Continue to try to out-nasty Farage and Co, and die a slow unedifying death!
The demographics of the Tory vote are terrible, with a million of their 2024 voters meeting their maker by 2029.
They need to be able to attract some working age voters to replace them, and they won't get them via euroscepticism.
The Reform vote is younger, albeit not by much, and is made up of 2 fairly coherent groups: the hardcore racists that used to vote BNP, and a large group of the disaffected who feel that the country has left them behind. I cannot see that support lasting long in a Farage led government which is going to implode very quickly.
So the prospects for Rejoin are not for the next GE, but rather the one afterwards in the early 2030's. By then the Tory party will either be history or euro-pragmatic and Faragism exposed as the snake oil that it is.
We are finding in Epping Forest where in most seats it is a straight fight between Tories and Reform we are getting some younger LD and Labour voters tactically willing to lend Conservative candidates their vote to beat Reform who would never normally vote Tory.
Remember though most voters over 47 voted to Leave the EU, it was not just pensioners who backed Brexit and many younger voters don't want to rejoin the full EU and are worried about uncontrolled immigration, especially young working class men
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
It probably is at the moment, and will likely remain so far a decade or two yet. But the EU is still there, nobody else has joined us in wanting to leave and our outness is only cemented in the minds of the most loyally partisan.
In the meantime, Brexit is a ghastly heirloom from a not-yet-dead relative. It's no use, it takes up space, it's actually pretty ugly, but you can't suggest getting rid of it because it will cause an argument and an angry rewriting of wills.
A decanter, perhaps, but one with really nasty historical connotations.
I see the IDF is using its Gaza playbook in the Lebanon .
“Rights groups fear the tactic of “domicide” trialled in Gaza, where entire areas are made uninhabitable, is being used again.
The Israeli military has said they are targeting Hezbollah infrastructure such as tunnels and military facilities, which it claims the armed group has embedded in civilian homes, through these demolitions.”
We’ve seen this excuse used many times before . But it’s clearly to ensure that Lebanese can’t return and effectively it’s just stealing more territory.
Yup. Smotrich gave the game away about two weeks ago when he said they would take Southern Lebanon up to the Litani River.
We need to realise Israel, in its current guise, is a rogue state.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
Up to a point. It was hardly a settled view that we had to leave, so I don't really get the asymmetry.
Then try getting it. You think they want us in - then out again a couple of years later?
The only way we come back in to the EU is if we are locked in - that a member can use Article 50 but once. Which we have used.
That in itself will kill Rejoin in a referendum. Or kill any party that took us in on that basis without a referendum.
That mechanism doesn't work though; if the EU were to forbid leaving nicely, a future post-Faragist government would make such merry hell that the UK would be expelled. Since that's obvious to a middle-aged science teacher, I doubt they would seek to poison the well of Brejoin in that way.
This is Brussels we are talking about though.
If the EU were pragmatic negotiators, we would still be members.
They will say we signed up to Rejoin without an option to leave. So we cannot leave, however big Farage's toddler tantrum.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Rawnsleys argument in a sentence is that we can’t/wont rejoin until it is clearly a settled question, and with Farage leading the polls and the Tories still in the hands of his fellow travellers, that isn’t the case.
As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
Adsolutely this.
The EU debate has bedevilled the Tories for 30 years. Brexit has not solved it.
The Tories have 2 options
Go back to where they are best, most effective and most electable the CENTRE ground as a Centre soft Right Party and thrive.
Continue to try to out-nasty Farage and Co, and die a slow unedifying death!
The demographics of the Tory vote are terrible, with a million of their 2024 voters meeting their maker by 2029.
They need to be able to attract some working age voters to replace them, and they won't get them via euroscepticism.
The Reform vote is younger, albeit not by much, and is made up of 2 fairly coherent groups: the hardcore racists that used to vote BNP, and a large group of the disaffected who feel that the country has left them behind. I cannot see that support lasting long in a Farage led government which is going to implode very quickly.
So the prospects for Rejoin are not for the next GE, but rather the one afterwards in the early 2030's. By then the Tory party will either be history or euro-pragmatic and Faragism exposed as the snake oil that it is.
We are finding in Epping Forest where in most seats it is a straight fight between Tories and Reform we are getting some younger LD and Labour voters tactically willing to lend Conservative candidates their vote to beat Reform who would never normally vote Tory.
Remember though most voters over 47 voted to Leave the EU, it was not just pensioners who backed Brexit and many younger voters don't want to join the full EU and are worried about uncontrolled immigration, especially young working class men
By the time we rejoin the EU it will be back to the era of Auf Wiedersehen Pet with those men wanting to go to the EU to get better paid work...
Too often bitter old remainers bang on about bits of Brexit which are really important to them - passport queues and freedom of movement for Brits in Europe that hardly any one used. Then it’s on to the issue of Erasmus as if student exchange ground to a halt in 2020 (and I’ve imagined the 20 odd exchange students I’ve hosted since then). The economic damage of Brexit is impossible to disentangle from covid, the war in Ukraine and now the current imbroglio. Yet many assert that if only we were in the EU growth would return (just as it, er hasn’t in our competition European neighbours). What do remainers want from being back in the EU? For many I suspect it’s about being back in the right thinking club of European good chaps. And as for the ridiculous idea that Brexit has failed? That is true in a narrow economic sense of sunlit uplands, but Brexit was always more than just economics. Many of us simpletons have been educated that free trade is not the same as frictionless trade, but it’s also true that the friction is a choice, mainly of the EU. It cannot be beyond the wit of man to computerise trade documents. Rather I suspect the documents, the process, are part of the EU punishment to the U.K. for having the temerity to leave. It could be made easier.
They want an end to the social embarrassment they feel when they travel to Europe and speak to Europeans.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
Fact free drivel from a bitter old man. Rawnsley, not IanB2.
You're on of the ideologically unpersuadables I noted earlier, I think ? The fact is that you're in a minority.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
It probably is at the moment, and will likely remain so far a decade or two yet. But the EU is still there, nobody else has joined us in wanting to leave and our outness is only cemented in the minds of the most loyally partisan.
In the meantime, Brexit is a ghastly heirloom from a not-yet-dead relative. It's no use, it takes up space, it's actually pretty ugly, but you can't suggest getting rid of it because it will cause an argument and an angry rewriting of wills.
A decanter, perhaps, but one with really nasty historical connotations.
Too often bitter old remainers bang on about bits of Brexit which are really important to them - passport queues and freedom of movement for Brits in Europe that hardly any one used. Then it’s on to the issue of Erasmus as if student exchange ground to a halt in 2020 (and I’ve imagined the 20 odd exchange students I’ve hosted since then). The economic damage of Brexit is impossible to disentangle from covid, the war in Ukraine and now the current imbroglio. Yet many assert that if only we were in the EU growth would return (just as it, er hasn’t in our competition European neighbours). What do remainers want from being back in the EU? For many I suspect it’s about being back in the right thinking club of European good chaps. And as for the ridiculous idea that Brexit has failed? That is true in a narrow economic sense of sunlit uplands, but Brexit was always more than just economics. Many of us simpletons have been educated that free trade is not the same as frictionless trade, but it’s also true that the friction is a choice, mainly of the EU. It cannot be beyond the wit of man to computerise trade documents. Rather I suspect the documents, the process, are part of the EU punishment to the U.K. for having the temerity to leave. It could be made easier.
They want an end to the social embarrassment they feel when they travel to Europe and speak to Europeans.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
You go for Rejoin, you restart the war.
Which is a good reason not to fight that war now. Luke 14:31-32 applies, as it really should have done to Trump's adventures in Iran.
Not now, which is the conclusion of Rawnsley's piece.
Yes, I think many in our political class will try to salami slice us back there in little steps, by reasonable sounding words, reassurances and not a little bit of subterfuge. And then argue it's both unchangeable and essential at the end of it.
Which is exactly how we got to Brexit in the first place.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
Fact free drivel from a bitter old man. Rawnsley, not IanB2.
Ooh, is it a game of Spot The Fact?
I reckon there are at leave five verifiable bits of information in there. Which is five more than a typical Boris Johnson column over the years.
How many can you find?
And probably more in the original article, as my heavy editing intends to pull out the argumentation, leaving the supporting statements for PB'ers to work out for yourselves
Your wholesale cut and pasting of Rawnsley, every week, is also clearly illegal, infringes Guardian copyright (about which they are getting increasingly angsty as they edge towards a paywall). I am quite surprised the mods haven’t had a menacing letter from the Guardian’s lawyers. They will do eventually
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Also has Pakistan as a winner and India a loser and Israel and Saudi also in those losing out as the regime remains in place.
Trump once he launched the strikes should either have gone in with groundtroops and removed the regime or he should never have bothered attacking Iran at all.
Instead the regime remains in place and he has just replaced the old Ayatollah with the new and increased oil prices
That's what the Pope means, I think, when he talks of the "delusion of omnipotence".
Hope our Poll-iceman doesn’t mind these being posted. They’re relatively bad for Reform so should be ok
🆕 Our latest MRP for the Sunday Times estimates Reform UK would be just a seat shy of a majority and far above any other party but for the first time down on a previous MRP estimate. The Greens achieve their highest score we’ve recorded on 22 seats
I see the IDF is using its Gaza playbook in the Lebanon .
“Rights groups fear the tactic of “domicide” trialled in Gaza, where entire areas are made uninhabitable, is being used again.
The Israeli military has said they are targeting Hezbollah infrastructure such as tunnels and military facilities, which it claims the armed group has embedded in civilian homes, through these demolitions.”
We’ve seen this excuse used many times before . But it’s clearly to ensure that Lebanese can’t return and effectively it’s just stealing more territory.
Yup. Smotrich gave the game away about two weeks ago when he said they would take Southern Lebanon up to the Litani River.
We need to realise Israel, in its current guise, is a rogue state.
Unlike Iran, Israel is a nuclear-armed rogue state.
Thinking the unthinkable...if Iran now has a winning hand and can get nukes, how would Israel then be constrained?
Maybe the Israeli assessment is that within 5-10 year, Iran will indeed have the Bomb - and its current style of warfare/land grabs will no longer be an option against a regime that might - just might - use them.
Also has Pakistan as a winner and India a loser and Israel and Saudi also in those losing out as the regime remains in place.
Trump once he launched the strikes should either have gone in with groundtroops and removed the regime or he should never have bothered attacking Iran at all.
Instead the regime remains in place and he has just replaced the old Ayatollah with the new and increased oil prices
Was it ever about nuclear weapons or regime. Seems the Israelis reckon it was about the control of China's oil supplies. They provided the cover so the US could try to usurp control which they might still attempt. Watch China and the appearance of additional defence apparatus that appears in Iran.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Talk of the devil and here I am
You slightly misconstrue me. I’ve said - often playfully - that a much more right wing EU would be more tempting. And it would. But I’ve also said time and again that the practical obstacles in place of rejoining are so enormous - from calling and winning a referendum to avoiding a veto from anyone in the EU - no sane government will even risk trying. And an insane government will lose that referendum
The Remainers are best to aim for single market and free movement. That’s as good as it will get for them
Besides, such huge changes are coming down the line, geopolitical to technological, I think the idea will seem quaintly irrelevant very soon
Like so many things, it's not really about the EU - it's about us and our values and our domestic battles.
Many Rejoiners like the EU because they believe it stands for things they care about, like free movement, internationalism and progressive liberalism.
If it became more about strict immigration control, military commitments, cultural conservatism and a thwarting of identity politics, we'd hear far less about it.
Again, I disagree. It's already moving in that direction. And if anything it's making some conservatives muse about the possible future attractiveness of rejoin.
In any event, while liberal democracy is encoded in the EU constitution, it doesn't mandate liberal politics; just democratic politics.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
You go for Rejoin, you restart the war.
Which is a good reason not to fight that war now. Luke 14:31-32 applies, as it really should have done to Trump's adventures in Iran.
Not now, which is the conclusion of Rawnsley's piece.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
Fact free drivel from a bitter old man. Rawnsley, not IanB2.
Ooh, is it a game of Spot The Fact?
I reckon there are at leave five verifiable bits of information in there. Which is five more than a typical Boris Johnson column over the years.
How many can you find?
And probably more in the original article, as my heavy editing intends to pull out the argumentation, leaving the supporting statements for PB'ers to work out for yourselves
Your wholesale cut and pasting of Rawnsley, every week, is also clearly illegal, infringes Guardian copyright (about which they are getting increasingly angsty as they edge towards a paywall). I am quite surprised the mods haven’t had a menacing letter from the Guardian’s lawyers. They will do eventually
What will the lawyers do about a weekly AI precis of Rawnsley's screed?
Not that we can talk about it...
(It's not as if The Guardian wouldn't read and plunder this site - and without acknowledgment in their case.)
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
Fact free drivel from a bitter old man. Rawnsley, not IanB2.
Ooh, is it a game of Spot The Fact?
I reckon there are at leave five verifiable bits of information in there. Which is five more than a typical Boris Johnson column over the years.
How many can you find?
And probably more in the original article, as my heavy editing intends to pull out the argumentation, leaving the supporting statements for PB'ers to work out for yourselves
Your wholesale cut and pasting of Rawnsley, every week, is also clearly illegal, infringes Guardian copyright (about which they are getting increasingly angsty as they edge towards a paywall). I am quite surprised the mods haven’t had a menacing letter from the Guardian’s lawyers. They will do eventually
Rawnsley is TLDR for me. I'd welcome a non infringing version cut down to a paragraph; two at most.
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
I voted remain but have moved on and the EU today, and politics, is in a very different place with the future being a new alliance with Canada, UK, EU, Japan, Australia and New Zealand
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
I disagree.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility. Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
Talk of the devil and here I am
You slightly misconstrue me. I’ve said - often playfully - that a much more right wing EU would be more tempting. And it would. But I’ve also said time and again that the practical obstacles in place of rejoining are so enormous - from calling and winning a referendum to avoiding a veto from anyone in the EU - no sane government will even risk trying. And an insane government will lose that referendum
The Remainers are best to aim for single market and free movement. That’s as good as it will get for them
Besides, such huge changes are coming down the line, geopolitical to technological, I think the idea will seem quaintly irrelevant very soon
Like so many things, it's not really about the EU - it's about us and our values and our domestic battles.
Many Rejoiners like the EU because they believe it stands for things they care about, like free movement, internationalism and progressive liberalism.
If it became more about strict immigration control, military commitments, cultural conservatism and a thwarting of identity politics, we'd hear far less about it.
Again, I disagree. It's already moving in that direction. And if anything it's making some conservatives muse about the possible future attractiveness of rejoin.
In any event, while liberal democracy is encoded in the EU constitution, it doesn't mandate liberal politics; just democratic politics.
Comments
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15718199/How-Russia-China-winners-Trumps-Iran-war-NATO-Europe-US-losing-out.html
It will be ten 10 years this June since the referendum which that resulted in a narrow vote to quit. We’ve had more than five years of experiencing the consequences of Boris Johnson’s wretched exit terms. Polling suggests that a growing, chunky majority of voters have concluded that it was a mistake to amputate ourselves from the EU. It’s the economy, stupid. Demography is another dimension of the national mood shift. The Brexit vote was driven by ageing voters in defiance of the desires of most younger ones. The Grim Reaper is having his way with Generation Out leaving Generation In to live with the baleful bequest.
Proponents of the “Anglosphere” used to suggest that we could afford to cast ourselves off from Europe because Albion would always have America. That contention has stood the test of time no better than milk left in sunshine. Once, [Starmer] was adamantly opposed to the idea that the UK has to choose between the US and Europe. Now the prime minister is doing precisely that.
One error commonly made in London is to assume that the EU spends as much time talking about us as British politicians do thinking about it. For us, Brexit is the curse that keeps on cursing. For the EU, it is a trauma that has receded into the rear-view mirror.
Most EU leaders would be open to the idea of the UK returning. More joy in heaven over one sinner who repenteth. But the EU would also be wary. It would have to feel extremely certain that we’d be committed to staying in, whatever the colour of subsequent British governments. It would also need the assurance that we’d be good housemates, not truculent delinquents who’d smash the crockery and sick up on the carpet. That confidence won’t exist so long as there is a possibility of Nigel Farage or one of the Conservative party’s Reform soundalikes becoming prime minister.
I think Brexit was the gravest self-harming wound the UK has inflicted on itself in my lifetime. So it pains me to say that, though most of my fellow citizens want to rejoin, I see little possibility of returning to the EU in the foreseeable future. Some mistakes you get to correct. Others persist in being punishing for years.
Unsurprising news but what happens next ?
https://news.sky.com/liveblog-webview/iran-war-latest-254-people-killed-by-israeli-strikes-in-lebanon-today-says-civil-defence-service-13509565
JD Vance: "The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. And I think that's bad news for Iran much more than it's bad news for the US. So, we go back to the US having not come to an agreement ... they have chosen not to accept our terms"
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043140972318535840
I do think Rawnsley has a point that whilst so many have never come to terms with brexit and never will, the EU would need a settled view that the political class in the UK wholeheartedly endorse rejoining
Trump doesn't want peace, of course. He wants victory. The problem (and it is a very real problem) is he doesn't understand there is no way of achieving what he would actually consider as a victory.
Equally, I'm assuming there that 'victory' includes something that keeps his activities as outlined in the Epstein files out of the press. Which is also unlikely to be possible.
This is why it's not smart to elect presidents with advanced dementia.
Sadly even less surprising than Israel ignoring the ceasefire.
It's notable that even the Leons - who were strongly pro-Brexit, pain worth it etc - but not ideologically completely wedded to it - are now tentatively thinking about the possibility.
Note how often he and others go on about the rightward drift of European politics.
You will never persuade a significant slice of the electorate (I'm sure you can think of some), but it's probably not a large enough number to constitute a blocking minority in the way Rawnsley theorises.
I do not expect it will happen overnight, but across the globe generally new alliances are needed to face upto Russia and China
If the EU really does think that, it's extraordinarily un-self-aware, hypocritical and anti-democratic thinking on their part, even by its standards. It shows a phenomenal lack of self-awareness because the right to leave the EU is in the Constitution which it spent several years deceitfully ramming down voters' throats against the expressed democratic wishes of many of them. It is hypocritical because lots of member states stand up for their national interests, and many have big anti-EU parties. And above all it is anti-democratic because a democracy that can't change its mind isn't a democracy any more. If being in the EU no longer serves the UK's interests, why should it stay?
Sadly, having worked alongside Eurocrats, I find it all to easy to believe they really do think that way. They are pure fanatics, contempuous of democracy, and failing to understand how anybody could fail to see the world in their cramped and distorted way.
As I have said before, the best hope, including for the Tories themselves, is that at some point a new leader takes them back towards their historic pragmatic pro-European position, leaving Farage in the cold defending the views of the geriatric and the frothy-mouthed.
I expect one of two things . Another ultimatum from Trump or agreement to hold further talks .
Not sure why there was such a rush to conclude things in just one day .
Given it was also unsettled when we were a member, I'd suggest the only reasonable conclusion is that the UK is very split (and was before we left) on the matter of the EU.
The EU debate has bedevilled the Tories for 30 years. Brexit has not solved it.
The Tories have 2 options
Go back to where they are best, most effective and most electable the CENTRE ground as a Centre soft Right Party and thrive.
Continue to try to out-nasty Farage and Co, and die a slow unedifying death!
On a related matter, the Tories 2022-2024 made a host of unfunded promises and commitments - spent the alleged reserves 3 times over and created a massive scorched earth scenario.
We now have the current Tory Twatter Queen making almost daily "populist" unfunded promises to try to keep up with Farage, seemingly happy to spend the Two Child Cap and the cessation of the green Levy over and over and over and over and over and over and over again!
It might kid the intellectually challenged for a few months but if they lose north of 500 Council seats as a main opposition when the Government are losing 2000 plus, it has to be curtains for the Tory Leader and the Tory Party on its current Kemikaze journey.
“Rights groups fear the tactic of “domicide” trialled in Gaza, where entire areas are made uninhabitable, is being used again.
The Israeli military has said they are targeting Hezbollah infrastructure such as tunnels and military facilities, which it claims the armed group has embedded in civilian homes, through these demolitions.”
We’ve seen this excuse used many times before . But it’s clearly to ensure that Lebanese can’t return and effectively it’s just stealing more territory.
Good morning, everyone.
In the meantime, Brexit is a ghastly heirloom from a not-yet-dead relative. It's no use, it takes up space, it's actually pretty ugly, but you can't suggest getting rid of it because it will cause an argument and an angry rewriting of wills.
A decanter, perhaps, but one with really nasty historical connotations.
https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/greens-axe-candidate-after-jn-exposes-7-oct-conspiracy-posts-and-hostage-balloon-attack/
So stopping all traffic from the Strait of Hormuz which currently allows the Iranians to export their oil . Of course this will seriously piss off China and other countries that still get those deliveries.
In the short term it’s likely to cause a big spike in oil prices . And the USA will then have no room for any manoeuvre, it will have to keep the blockade until Iran caves in .
This seems risky if the Iranians dig in as the global economic impact will be much worse .
1. Bomb Iran into surrender
2. Bomb Israel into surrender
3. Walk (or sail) away claiming victory and leave others to come to some sort of accommodation.
The most interesting point she made was why does the press “gobble up” Leavitt’s lies? They are so self evidently gaslighting but she still gets reported with respect
You slightly misconstrue me. I’ve said - often playfully - that a much more right wing EU would be more tempting. And it would. But I’ve also said time and again that the practical obstacles in place of rejoining are so enormous - from calling and winning a referendum to avoiding a veto from anyone in the EU - no sane government will even risk trying. And an insane government will lose that referendum
The Remainers are best to aim for single market and free movement. That’s as good as it will get for them
Besides, such huge changes are coming down the line, geopolitical to technological, I think the idea will seem quaintly irrelevant very soon
Turnout at 7:00 AM EEST
2010: 1.61%
2014: 1.64%
2018: 2.24%
2022: 1.82%
2026: 3.46%
The only way we come back in to the EU is if we are locked in - that a member can use Article 50 but once. Which we have used.
That in itself will kill Rejoin in a referendum. Or kill any party that took us in on that basis without a referendum.
In 2022 1.78% v 2026 3.45% .
Total turnout in 2022 there was 72.35%.
52:48 really would be the Devil's ratio.
The Eastern, and South Eastern, flanks are more important institutionally, politically and existentially. I think there is a need for the EU to prioritise Ukraine and the other Balkan, or near Balkan, countries. A revised accession process needs to be in place and working. There is also a need to have in place effective measures to deal with single rogue members, such as Hungary - where the EU institutional optimism has been overcooked, as was USA paralysis of the IMO. What the USA will try and do to freeze NATO and the UN has yet to be seen.
Plus there are the current US and Russian regimes their deliberate attempts to undermine the EU, and to roll back international institutions and international law. On the other hand it may become easier if Trump is politically semi-castrated after the Mid-Terms.
Those strike me as being more important for the EU in the next decade. Their knitting to stick to is not the UK relationship, although we may make it more straightforward by being agreeable.
They need to be able to attract some working age voters to replace them, and they won't get them via euroscepticism.
The Reform vote is younger, albeit not by much, and is made up of 2 fairly coherent groups: the hardcore racists that used to vote BNP, and a large group of the disaffected who feel that the country has left them behind. I cannot see that support lasting long in a Farage led government which is going to implode very quickly.
So the prospects for Rejoin are not for the next GE, but rather the one afterwards in the early 2030's. By then the Tory party will either be history or euro-pragmatic and Faragism exposed as the snake oil that it is.
At 9 am 16.89% v 10.31% in 2022 .
Budapest 15.96 % v 9.90 % in 2022.
Mugabe had an absolute thrashing in 2008 and that didn't stop him claiming the vote was rigged (which was true - he would have lost by an even huger margin had he not done so) and that he was the real winner (which he wasn't) and used violence to stay in power.
Hungary has seldom been a democracy. Only really since 1989, arguably, given the 1946 election was heavily rigged too. I think we're all far too complacent about what Orban will get up to.
‘Loving the support for Restore Britain from Rangers fans today.
Proper club, proper fans, proper atmosphere.’
https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2043041188874224006?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Of course Rejoin is not a simple solution for our economic and social woes. Much of the damage has already occured and those businesses driven out by Brexit will reappear slowly if at all.
However the potential tax saving for Tice is dependent on whether the Jersey trust pays UK tax. For his personal holding Tice says he paid the full income tax although he could have had a timing advantage (ie use of the “extra” 20% of cash fir the time between when the REIT would have withheld it and when he settled his income tax but that’s not a huge amount)
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/RBqlbPrY3h8
Just trying to figure out if we can read anything into who the likely beneficiaries of high turnout are.
I don't think just because we would behave like arseholes under Farage we should assume the EU would expel us. They are too obsessed with their project of continent-wide union, a bit like the British with Ireland or France with Algeria. Even when it was causing chaos it required actual violence to enforce separation.
I reckon there are at leave five verifiable bits of information in there. Which is five more than a typical Boris Johnson column over the years.
How many can you find?
The polls are so close and so fragmented that almost any result is possible.
Trump once he launched the strikes should either have gone in with groundtroops and removed the regime or he should never have bothered attacking Iran at all.
Instead the regime remains in place and he has just replaced the old Ayatollah with the new and increased oil prices
https://bsky.app/profile/szabolcspanyi.bsky.social/post/3mjbud6foo22s
The source is clearly not an Orban fan!
Brexit isn't the curse that keeps on cursing, and nor does the EU simply not care about us.
Most Europeans both recognise British politics is more complicated on European relations than it is on the continent, and always will be, and want us to have a positive and constructive relationship with them.
Not now, which is the conclusion of Rawnsley's piece.
Overseas voters who still have a residential address in Hungary vote at embassies , these are counted as part of the totals in their Hungarian counties .
The others who no longer have a Hungarian address normally postal vote .
Their votes only apply to the national list .
The economic damage of Brexit is impossible to disentangle from covid, the war in Ukraine and now the current imbroglio. Yet many assert that if only we were in the EU growth would return (just as it, er hasn’t in our competition European neighbours).
What do remainers want from being back in the EU? For many I suspect it’s about being back in the right thinking club of European good chaps.
And as for the ridiculous idea that Brexit has failed? That is true in a narrow economic sense of sunlit uplands, but Brexit was always more than just economics.
Many of us simpletons have been educated that free trade is not the same as frictionless trade, but it’s also true that the friction is a choice, mainly of the EU. It cannot be beyond the wit of man to computerise trade documents. Rather I suspect the documents, the process, are part of the EU punishment to the U.K. for having the temerity to leave. It could be made easier.
Many Rejoiners like the EU because they believe it stands for things they care about, like free movement, internationalism and progressive liberalism.
If it became more about strict immigration control, military commitments, cultural conservatism and a thwarting of identity politics, we'd hear far less about it.
Remember though most voters over 47 voted to Leave the EU, it was not just pensioners who backed Brexit and many younger voters don't want to rejoin the full EU and are worried about uncontrolled immigration, especially young working class men
We need to realise Israel, in its current guise, is a rogue state.
If the EU were pragmatic negotiators, we would still be members.
They will say we signed up to Rejoin without an option to leave. So we cannot leave, however big Farage's toddler tantrum.
The fact is that you're in a minority.
Which is exactly how we got to Brexit in the first place.
Thinking the unthinkable...if Iran now has a winning hand and can get nukes, how would Israel then be constrained?
Maybe the Israeli assessment is that within 5-10 year, Iran will indeed have the Bomb - and its current style of warfare/land grabs will no longer be an option against a regime that might - just might - use them.
As an aside glad we're 86% renewables today.
It's already moving in that direction. And if anything it's making some conservatives muse about the possible future attractiveness of rejoin.
In any event, while liberal democracy is encoded in the EU constitution, it doesn't mandate liberal politics; just democratic politics.
Not that we can talk about it...
(It's not as if The Guardian wouldn't read and plunder this site - and without acknowledgment in their case.)
I'd welcome a non infringing version cut down to a paragraph; two at most.