Skip to content

A 64/1 trading bet? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,175
edited April 11 in General
A 64/1 trading bet? – politicalbetting.com

ANDY BESHEAR on 2028 run: “I will tell you I walked off the stage in 2023 having won re election by 5 points in Ky, which is like winning by 30 anywhere else. And I looked at my wife, & I said, whooo, we’ll never have to run a campaign again. And I'm not sure that's true today.” pic.twitter.com/NVws04tZOb

Read the full story here

«13

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,612
    edited April 11
    I need to come up with a decent does Beshear shit in the woods type pun.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,144
    edited April 11
    cancelled.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I need to come up with a decent does Beshear shit in the woods type pun.

    Puns are never decent, they are judged on being entertainingly groan worthy, so I wouldn't worry about it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,144
    Well she made me laugh!!


    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ZsqL51m4zps
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,152
    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,426
    Beshear delight?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    Thus far I've only really heard about Newsom, liked by some for being punchier in response to Trump than past Democrats, but also hated by a lot of them for not being progressive enough.

    Ossoff is still pretty young isn't he? Though not so much as AOC.

    Don Jr and Ivanka make the list, but not poor Eric? (Ivanka used to seem like the most prominent of the Trump children, but has faded more into the background whilst her husband grifts his way around the world)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,514
    He’s a lawyer?

    Well, nobody’s perfect.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,426
    Beshear madness?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,612
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I need to come up with a decent does Beshear shit in the woods type pun.

    Puns are never decent, they are judged on being entertainingly groan worthy, so I wouldn't worry about it.
    Mine are judged by much higher standards.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,516
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what

    It's only woke if you had venison.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,928
    To Beshear, to Beashear.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,327
    I picked him as a possible months ago. He has that JFK look , and a Dem winning in Kentucky is no mean feat .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,612
    kle4 said:

    Thus far I've only really heard about Newsom, liked by some for being punchier in response to Trump than past Democrats, but also hated by a lot of them for not being progressive enough.

    Ossoff is still pretty young isn't he? Though not so much as AOC.

    Don Jr and Ivanka make the list, but not poor Eric? (Ivanka used to seem like the most prominent of the Trump children, but has faded more into the background whilst her husband grifts his way around the world)

    Eric Trump is available at 230s on Betfair, the screenshot doesn't show them all.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.235690682
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    nico67 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ANDY BESHEAR on 2028 run: “I will tell you I walked off the stage in 2023 having won re election by 5 points in Ky, which is like winning by 30 anywhere else. And I looked at my wife, & I said, whooo, we’ll never have to run a campaign again. And I'm not sure that's true today.”

    https://x.com/MarioAndersonTV/status/2043004754767339856

    The Dems need to avoid Newsom and not become self indulgent and pick Buttigieg .

    I like him and in an ideal world why couldn’t he win but to be blunt the US isn’t going to vote for a gay candidate .
    The Simpsons predicted a Gay Republican might win in 2084, when Buttegieg will be 102. With increases in life expectancy and an ageing political class that might be equivalent to a Biden/Trump candidacy today.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,218
    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what

    It's only woke if you had venison.
    Just had some venison and sloe salami from a local producer. Nice. And woke.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Thus far I've only really heard about Newsom, liked by some for being punchier in response to Trump than past Democrats, but also hated by a lot of them for not being progressive enough.

    Ossoff is still pretty young isn't he? Though not so much as AOC.

    Don Jr and Ivanka make the list, but not poor Eric? (Ivanka used to seem like the most prominent of the Trump children, but has faded more into the background whilst her husband grifts his way around the world)

    Eric Trump is available at 230s on Betfair, the screenshot doesn't show them all.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.235690682
    I was going to say at least he's got a better chance than Tiffany, but turns out she would not be old enough to be eligible.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    Roger said:

    cancelled.

    Who?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,102
    boulay said:

    To Beshear, to Beashear.

    To Beshear or not to Beshear? That is the question.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,612
    nico67 said:

    I picked him as a possible months ago. He has that JFK look , and a Dem winning in Kentucky is no mean feat .

    Err, In Kentucky for 67 years out of the last 79 years, the Governor's been a Dem
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 17,363
    I like Buttigieg, and think he’s exactly what we need here in Britain - intelligent, thoughtful but confident with it. But given how the American electorate are an entirely alien species who share few if any tastes or values with me, that probably means he doesn’t stand a chance.

    But to be frank, do any of them stand a chance? Are Trump and his firm really going to allow opposition parties a look in? Only our lingering imported American exceptionalism, that just assumes against all evidence that democracy will prevail there because we’ve watched lots of those movies, stops us from seeing this for what it is.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,887
    MelonB said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    Huge day in European politics tomorrow as Hungary goes to the polls.

    Massively important.

    The external ideological lens probably distorts what is going on. If Magyar wins, it will be more of a changing of the guard to a younger generation and will provide a boost to the European right overall.
    Could be a very important day for Ukraine if the 90bn Euro loan is released from the EU after Orban's removal. Could be a real game changer in a war already swinging Ukraine's way.
    Magyar is a bit of an unknown quantity. He may stop blocking the EU funds to Ukraine in order to unlock EU funds for Hungary. He also seems keen on cracking down on corruption* but that is pretty standard for insurgent challengers. Otherwise he seems to the right of Orban, albeit pro EU.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/10/peter-magyar-leading-polls-hungary-election-tisza-opposition?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    *though it is rare to find a politician as open to corruption as this one:

    https://youtu.be/WWCLI7lXEdI?si=CPbtiz_XPzp5bkje
    By rights Hungary should be a political footnote in the continent’s life. Its population is relatively tiny. The fact we all know who Orban is, rather like Fico in Slovakia, shows how unusual and dangerous his position as a Russian asset in the EU is.

    If Magyar can return Hungary to geopolitical obscurity and concentrate on their domestic issues (and they have many - they’re lagging most other regional economies) then whether he’s right or left, clean or corrupt, we’ll all be able to breathe a sigh of relief.
    I think it's a bit more significant than that. It occupies one of the prime geographic positions and has a significant diaspora outside its reduced borders so you would expect it to have a disproportionate influence on European politics.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,327
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    nico67 said:

    I picked him as a possible months ago. He has that JFK look , and a Dem winning in Kentucky is no mean feat .

    Err, In Kentucky for 67 years out of the last 79 years, the Governor's been a Dem
    Strange how that’s a deepish red state and has that history.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,612
    edited April 11
    MelonB said:

    I like Buttigieg, and think he’s exactly what we need here in Britain - intelligent, thoughtful but confident with it. But given how the American electorate are an entirely alien species who share few if any tastes or values with me, that probably means he doesn’t stand a chance.

    But to be frank, do any of them stand a chance? Are Trump and his firm really going to allow opposition parties a look in? Only our lingering imported American exceptionalism, that just assumes against all evidence that democracy will prevail there because we’ve watched lots of those movies, stops us from seeing this for what it is.

    But Buttigieg read PPE at the dump that is the University of Oxford.

    Huge black mark against him if you ask me.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,005
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    nico67 said:

    I picked him as a possible months ago. He has that JFK look , and a Dem winning in Kentucky is no mean feat .

    Err, In Kentucky for 67 years out of the last 79 years, the Governor's been a Dem
    I presume a lot of that was from before the South switched from Dem to Rep. But, yes, the Dems have often held the governorship in Kentucky… although it’s 23 years since the state has had a Dem gov not called Beshear.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,038
    turbotubbs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what

    It's only woke if you had venison.
    Just had some venison and sloe salami from a local producer. Nice. And woke.
    It always seems a shame we can't make more use of sloes given how prolifically blackthorn grows in Britain.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,928
    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,674
    williamglenn said:

    MelonB said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    Huge day in European politics tomorrow as Hungary goes to the polls.

    Massively important.

    The external ideological lens probably distorts what is going on. If Magyar wins, it will be more of a changing of the guard to a younger generation and will provide a boost to the European right overall.
    Could be a very important day for Ukraine if the 90bn Euro loan is released from the EU after Orban's removal. Could be a real game changer in a war already swinging Ukraine's way.
    Magyar is a bit of an unknown quantity. He may stop blocking the EU funds to Ukraine in order to unlock EU funds for Hungary. He also seems keen on cracking down on corruption* but that is pretty standard for insurgent challengers. Otherwise he seems to the right of Orban, albeit pro EU.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/10/peter-magyar-leading-polls-hungary-election-tisza-opposition?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    *though it is rare to find a politician as open to corruption as this one:

    https://youtu.be/WWCLI7lXEdI?si=CPbtiz_XPzp5bkje
    By rights Hungary should be a political footnote in the continent’s life. Its population is relatively tiny. The fact we all know who Orban is, rather like Fico in Slovakia, shows how unusual and dangerous his position as a Russian asset in the EU is.

    If Magyar can return Hungary to geopolitical obscurity and concentrate on their domestic issues (and they have many - they’re lagging most other regional economies) then whether he’s right or left, clean or corrupt, we’ll all be able to breathe a sigh of relief.
    I think it's a bit more significant than that. It occupies one of the prime geographic positions and has a significant diaspora outside its reduced borders so you would expect it to have a disproportionate influence on European politics.
    do you sport a trianon number plate mr glenn?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,218
    Benpointer said:

    turbotubbs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what

    It's only woke if you had venison.
    Just had some venison and sloe salami from a local producer. Nice. And woke.
    It always seems a shame we can't make more use of sloes given how prolifically blackthorn grows in Britain.
    I like sloe gin, but it’s a winter drink and a bit of a faff.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    edited April 11
    bondegezou said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    nico67 said:

    I picked him as a possible months ago. He has that JFK look , and a Dem winning in Kentucky is no mean feat .

    Err, In Kentucky for 67 years out of the last 79 years, the Governor's been a Dem
    I presume a lot of that was from before the South switched from Dem to Rep. But, yes, the Dems have often held the governorship in Kentucky… although it’s 23 years since the state has had a Dem gov not called Beshear.
    Surprisingly close together - Steve Beshear 07-15 (20 years after being lieutenant governor! Never give up kids), Andy Beshear 19-date.

    Bit like the two Bushes being very close toegther.

    I see the younger Beshear won by 5k votes in 2019 - tight!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,005
    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    The military don’t want them? You spend lots of money training and employing them — more than you spend on benefits — but they don’t contribute anything to the economy. Meanwhile, labour shortages drive up wages.

    There are plenty of people looking for jobs and struggling to get them. Maybe solve that problem first?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,005
    kle4 said:

    bondegezou said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    nico67 said:

    I picked him as a possible months ago. He has that JFK look , and a Dem winning in Kentucky is no mean feat .

    Err, In Kentucky for 67 years out of the last 79 years, the Governor's been a Dem
    I presume a lot of that was from before the South switched from Dem to Rep. But, yes, the Dems have often held the governorship in Kentucky… although it’s 23 years since the state has had a Dem gov not called Beshear.
    Surprisingly close together - Steve Beshear 07-15 (20 years after being lieutenant governor! Never give up kids), Andy Beshear 19-date.

    Bit like the two Bushes being very close toegther.

    I see the younger Beshear won by 5k votes in 2019 - tight!
    North Americans do like to vote for political nepobabies.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,276
    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    It is not quite the same idea, but there are a number of ex-serviceman (including a lot of men who couldn't get through military trainining) currently living rough, and I would absolutely have a sort of reservist-cum-useful force, doing everything from 'pompier' style stuff to securing retail stores under threat of looting. We need an alternative to the police anyway - they are utterly useless.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,102
    Benpointer said:

    turbotubbs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what

    It's only woke if you had venison.
    Just had some venison and sloe salami from a local producer. Nice. And woke.
    It always seems a shame we can't make more use of sloes given how prolifically blackthorn grows in Britain.
    Not in beer, though. Earlier this week I had a saison that included sloes and damson. It was truly disgusting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    bondegezou said:

    kle4 said:

    bondegezou said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    nico67 said:

    I picked him as a possible months ago. He has that JFK look , and a Dem winning in Kentucky is no mean feat .

    Err, In Kentucky for 67 years out of the last 79 years, the Governor's been a Dem
    I presume a lot of that was from before the South switched from Dem to Rep. But, yes, the Dems have often held the governorship in Kentucky… although it’s 23 years since the state has had a Dem gov not called Beshear.
    Surprisingly close together - Steve Beshear 07-15 (20 years after being lieutenant governor! Never give up kids), Andy Beshear 19-date.

    Bit like the two Bushes being very close toegther.

    I see the younger Beshear won by 5k votes in 2019 - tight!
    North Americans do like to vote for political nepobabies.
    They come with connections and funding networks?

    Obviously we have a lot of families with plenty of MPs, but is our system better for it because there's still so much candidate influence from a few dozen people in a constituency and there's so much less money involved even today that a big name doesn't really mean much?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,005
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    It is not quite the same idea, but there are a number of ex-serviceman (including a lot of men who couldn't get through military trainining) currently living rough, and I would absolutely have a sort of reservist-cum-useful force, doing everything from 'pompier' style stuff to securing retail stores under threat of looting. We need an alternative to the police anyway - they are utterly useless.
    Or we could just fund the police better. That would be the more efficient approach rather than setting up a parallel force.

    Either way, we need more money to pay for it.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,928
    bondegezou said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    The military don’t want them? You spend lots of money training and employing them — more than you spend on benefits — but they don’t contribute anything to the economy. Meanwhile, labour shortages drive up wages.

    There are plenty of people looking for jobs and struggling to get them. Maybe solve that problem first?
    The military definitely need recruits and weirdly people sometimes find that when they are forced into a situation they thrive and find a home.

    Funnily enough as soon as a war starts the military don’t say, we don’t need these people, they train them and whip them into shape and everyone accepts the situation because you have to.

    One of the beauties of Switzerland was that kids couldn’t leave school and do nothing and sign on as you got the bare minimum in an expensive place - you only got full Chomage/dole after contributing for (iirc) 18 months in two years so kids got jobs to build up and then found they liked working, having a wage, having work colleagues and community.

    Maybe instead of this old canard about the military not wanting them we could try because the world, the military etc have moved on since the old ideas that national service was shit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    According to wiki Beshear had been AG when he ran for Governor, and the new AG then ran against him for Governor later (and then tried to replace the zombified remains of Mitch McConnell, but may be struggling to get funds).

    America's plethora of directly elected positions, primaries, and temporary appointments to replace people who've run for other offices, does make for a lot of dramatic and convoluted wikipedia articles.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,882
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    It is not quite the same idea, but there are a number of ex-serviceman (including a lot of men who couldn't get through military trainining) currently living rough, and I would absolutely have a sort of reservist-cum-useful force, doing everything from 'pompier' style stuff to securing retail stores under threat of looting. We need an alternative to the police anyway - they are utterly useless.
    A lot of the homeless ex-military are either alcoholic or have PTSD or both. They need treatment and support, but may not be the best security force.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,928
    Foxy said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    It is not quite the same idea, but there are a number of ex-serviceman (including a lot of men who couldn't get through military trainining) currently living rough, and I would absolutely have a sort of reservist-cum-useful force, doing everything from 'pompier' style stuff to securing retail stores under threat of looting. We need an alternative to the police anyway - they are utterly useless.
    A lot of the homeless ex-military are either alcoholic or have PTSD or both. They need treatment and support, but may not be the best security force.
    If they get a purpose I life, and the support network is there then maybe they actually find a place in the world. Organisation, hierarchy, camaraderie but not in the army might be the balance they need to live.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,005
    boulay said:

    bondegezou said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    The military don’t want them? You spend lots of money training and employing them — more than you spend on benefits — but they don’t contribute anything to the economy. Meanwhile, labour shortages drive up wages.

    There are plenty of people looking for jobs and struggling to get them. Maybe solve that problem first?
    The military definitely need recruits and weirdly people sometimes find that when they are forced into a situation they thrive and find a home.

    Funnily enough as soon as a war starts the military don’t say, we don’t need these people, they train them and whip them into shape and everyone accepts the situation because you have to.

    One of the beauties of Switzerland was that kids couldn’t leave school and do nothing and sign on as you got the bare minimum in an expensive place - you only got full Chomage/dole after contributing for (iirc) 18 months in two years so kids got jobs to build up and then found they liked working, having a wage, having work colleagues and community.

    Maybe instead of this old canard about the military not wanting them we could try because the world, the military etc have moved on since the old ideas that national service was shit.
    We’ve been involved in numerous wars for decades without re-starting conscription.

    We’re a very different country to Switzerland, but, sure, let’s look at what they do. Personally, I’m all in favour of following the Swiss model of a closer relationship with the EU and joining the Schengen area.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,038
    Fairliered said:

    Benpointer said:

    turbotubbs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what

    It's only woke if you had venison.
    Just had some venison and sloe salami from a local producer. Nice. And woke.
    It always seems a shame we can't make more use of sloes given how prolifically blackthorn grows in Britain.
    Not in beer, though. Earlier this week I had a saison that included sloes and damson. It was truly disgusting.
    No, I was thinking they should be fermented and brined like olives. "Fancy a 'slolive' with your aperitif?"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 56,882
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    It is not quite the same idea, but there are a number of ex-serviceman (including a lot of men who couldn't get through military trainining) currently living rough, and I would absolutely have a sort of reservist-cum-useful force, doing everything from 'pompier' style stuff to securing retail stores under threat of looting. We need an alternative to the police anyway - they are utterly useless.
    A lot of the homeless ex-military are either alcoholic or have PTSD or both. They need treatment and support, but may not be the best security force.
    If they get a purpose I life, and the support network is there then maybe they actually find a place in the world. Organisation, hierarchy, camaraderie but not in the army might be the balance they need to live.
    Sure, that might help, but needs a lot of careful training and supervision. Getting it wrong could prove very expensive if they beat up the wrong guy.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,005
    Benpointer said:

    Fairliered said:

    Benpointer said:

    turbotubbs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what

    It's only woke if you had venison.
    Just had some venison and sloe salami from a local producer. Nice. And woke.
    It always seems a shame we can't make more use of sloes given how prolifically blackthorn grows in Britain.
    Not in beer, though. Earlier this week I had a saison that included sloes and damson. It was truly disgusting.
    No, I was thinking they should be fermented and brined like olives. "Fancy a 'slolive' with your aperitif?"
    Now, this is the sort of radical thinking we need in British politics!
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,928
    bondegezou said:

    boulay said:

    bondegezou said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    The military don’t want them? You spend lots of money training and employing them — more than you spend on benefits — but they don’t contribute anything to the economy. Meanwhile, labour shortages drive up wages.

    There are plenty of people looking for jobs and struggling to get them. Maybe solve that problem first?
    The military definitely need recruits and weirdly people sometimes find that when they are forced into a situation they thrive and find a home.

    Funnily enough as soon as a war starts the military don’t say, we don’t need these people, they train them and whip them into shape and everyone accepts the situation because you have to.

    One of the beauties of Switzerland was that kids couldn’t leave school and do nothing and sign on as you got the bare minimum in an expensive place - you only got full Chomage/dole after contributing for (iirc) 18 months in two years so kids got jobs to build up and then found they liked working, having a wage, having work colleagues and community.

    Maybe instead of this old canard about the military not wanting them we could try because the world, the military etc have moved on since the old ideas that national service was shit.
    We’ve been involved in numerous wars for decades without re-starting conscription.

    We’re a very different country to Switzerland, but, sure, let’s look at what they do. Personally, I’m all in favour of following the Swiss model of a closer relationship with the EU and joining the Schengen area.
    Ok so imagine a world where if you are on benefits for a year at a certain age and there is a cut off where you have to join the navy or army. Would you take any job or just accept joining up, maybe having a career there. So many people might start taking career jobs, restaurants and others would chance their arm in the military. Some would be a waste of time but many would suddenly find application in life.

    Why do we just fold and just go “it’s too hard” or “ they won’t like it”. We have become such a completely wet country. We invented so much, created so many laws and norms and now the reflex is “it’s too hard/people won’t like it”. Fucking fannies.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,152
    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what

    It's only woke if you had venison.
    I am planning a venison ragu this week, so am I ultra woketard
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,535
    bondegezou said:

    boulay said:

    bondegezou said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    The military don’t want them? You spend lots of money training and employing them — more than you spend on benefits — but they don’t contribute anything to the economy. Meanwhile, labour shortages drive up wages.

    There are plenty of people looking for jobs and struggling to get them. Maybe solve that problem first?
    The military definitely need recruits and weirdly people sometimes find that when they are forced into a situation they thrive and find a home.

    Funnily enough as soon as a war starts the military don’t say, we don’t need these people, they train them and whip them into shape and everyone accepts the situation because you have to.

    One of the beauties of Switzerland was that kids couldn’t leave school and do nothing and sign on as you got the bare minimum in an expensive place - you only got full Chomage/dole after contributing for (iirc) 18 months in two years so kids got jobs to build up and then found they liked working, having a wage, having work colleagues and community.

    Maybe instead of this old canard about the military not wanting them we could try because the world, the military etc have moved on since the old ideas that national service was shit.
    We’ve been involved in numerous wars for decades without re-starting conscription.

    We’re a very different country to Switzerland, but, sure, let’s look at what they do. Personally, I’m all in favour of following the Swiss model of a closer relationship with the EU and joining the Schengen area.
    Funnily enough the Swiss are currently moving in the other direction.

    Personally I would like freedom of movement biut not Schengen. I think people should be free to move and should not be prevented from doing so but states should be able to monitor that movement for the purposes of combating crime and terrorism. It has been notable that the last few times there have been terrorist attacks in Europe the first thing the Governments have done is suspend Schengen. Which is kind of like shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.

    Though I do like the Swiss model of Government with lots of referendums.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,397
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/sarobertsonca/status/2043054889580843470

    PM Carney says the days of sending 70 cents of every dollar in military spending to the United States are over and gets a standing ovation

    Yep. Hit them where it really hurts. The military-industrial complex.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,516
    nico67 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    nico67 said:

    I picked him as a possible months ago. He has that JFK look , and a Dem winning in Kentucky is no mean feat .

    Err, In Kentucky for 67 years out of the last 79 years, the Governor's been a Dem
    Strange how that’s a deepish red state and has that history.
    Up until recently, the South was bluedog Democrats, while New England had its fair share of Republicans.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,005
    boulay said:

    bondegezou said:

    boulay said:

    bondegezou said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    The military don’t want them? You spend lots of money training and employing them — more than you spend on benefits — but they don’t contribute anything to the economy. Meanwhile, labour shortages drive up wages.

    There are plenty of people looking for jobs and struggling to get them. Maybe solve that problem first?
    The military definitely need recruits and weirdly people sometimes find that when they are forced into a situation they thrive and find a home.

    Funnily enough as soon as a war starts the military don’t say, we don’t need these people, they train them and whip them into shape and everyone accepts the situation because you have to.

    One of the beauties of Switzerland was that kids couldn’t leave school and do nothing and sign on as you got the bare minimum in an expensive place - you only got full Chomage/dole after contributing for (iirc) 18 months in two years so kids got jobs to build up and then found they liked working, having a wage, having work colleagues and community.

    Maybe instead of this old canard about the military not wanting them we could try because the world, the military etc have moved on since the old ideas that national service was shit.
    We’ve been involved in numerous wars for decades without re-starting conscription.

    We’re a very different country to Switzerland, but, sure, let’s look at what they do. Personally, I’m all in favour of following the Swiss model of a closer relationship with the EU and joining the Schengen area.
    Ok so imagine a world where if you are on benefits for a year at a certain age and there is a cut off where you have to join the navy or army. Would you take any job or just accept joining up, maybe having a career there. So many people might start taking career jobs, restaurants and others would chance their arm in the military. Some would be a waste of time but many would suddenly find application in life.

    Why do we just fold and just go “it’s too hard” or “ they won’t like it”. We have become such a completely wet country. We invented so much, created so many laws and norms and now the reflex is “it’s too hard/people won’t like it”. Fucking fannies.
    I don’t think it’s “wet” to think policy should be slightly more thought through than some belief that the answer is just to make young people take cold showers and do drill. If we’re going to spend lots of money on some sort of compulsory service, why not make people work in care roles. We need those more!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,516
    turbotubbs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what

    It's only woke if you had venison.
    Just had some venison and sloe salami from a local producer. Nice. And woke.
    Can you just remind me of your preferred pronoun?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,397
    "Their leaders are all gone" says leader who has sent his vice leader to negotiate on his personal behalf with erm... their leaders.

    Trump getting more tetchy by the hour as the clusterfuck comes home to haunt his final two years in office.



    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    58m
    “You don’t know anything” — Trump snaps at a female reporter

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043072247171060021
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,005
    bondegezou said:

    boulay said:

    bondegezou said:

    boulay said:

    bondegezou said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    The military don’t want them? You spend lots of money training and employing them — more than you spend on benefits — but they don’t contribute anything to the economy. Meanwhile, labour shortages drive up wages.

    There are plenty of people looking for jobs and struggling to get them. Maybe solve that problem first?
    The military definitely need recruits and weirdly people sometimes find that when they are forced into a situation they thrive and find a home.

    Funnily enough as soon as a war starts the military don’t say, we don’t need these people, they train them and whip them into shape and everyone accepts the situation because you have to.

    One of the beauties of Switzerland was that kids couldn’t leave school and do nothing and sign on as you got the bare minimum in an expensive place - you only got full Chomage/dole after contributing for (iirc) 18 months in two years so kids got jobs to build up and then found they liked working, having a wage, having work colleagues and community.

    Maybe instead of this old canard about the military not wanting them we could try because the world, the military etc have moved on since the old ideas that national service was shit.
    We’ve been involved in numerous wars for decades without re-starting conscription.

    We’re a very different country to Switzerland, but, sure, let’s look at what they do. Personally, I’m all in favour of following the Swiss model of a closer relationship with the EU and joining the Schengen area.
    Ok so imagine a world where if you are on benefits for a year at a certain age and there is a cut off where you have to join the navy or army. Would you take any job or just accept joining up, maybe having a career there. So many people might start taking career jobs, restaurants and others would chance their arm in the military. Some would be a waste of time but many would suddenly find application in life.

    Why do we just fold and just go “it’s too hard” or “ they won’t like it”. We have become such a completely wet country. We invented so much, created so many laws and norms and now the reflex is “it’s too hard/people won’t like it”. Fucking fannies.
    I don’t think it’s “wet” to think policy should be slightly more thought through than some belief that the answer is just to make young people take cold showers and do drill. If we’re going to spend lots of money on some sort of compulsory service, why not make people work in care roles. We need those more!
    When he was a teenager, we got my boss’s son to help care for my Mum, a retired doctor. He’s now a junior doctor himself, and that experience played a small part in his journey.

    When I was at school, I was in the RAF cadets. I can, at a very, very basic level, shoot a gun, navigate a plane and Polish boots. These skills have contributed not at all to my career where I am in the top decile for earnings.

    There’s nothing magic about military service. Yes, give young people skills and purpose, but there are lots of ways to do that.
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230
    Hope our Poll-iceman doesn’t mind these being posted. They’re relatively bad for Reform so should be ok

    🆕 Our latest MRP for the Sunday Times estimates Reform UK would be just a seat shy of a majority and far above any other party but for the first time down on a previous MRP estimate. The Greens achieve their highest score we’ve recorded on 22 seats

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084434841169922?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Seat totals, change with 2024 and change since last MRP as below.

    ➡️REF UK 324 (+319) (-57)
    🌹LAB 101 (-310) (+16)
    🌳CON 81 (-40) (+11)
    🔶LIB DEM 62 (-10) (+27)
    🟡SNP 26 (+17) (-14)
    💚GRN 22 (+17) (+13)
    ⬜️OTH 10 (+5) (+4)
    🟩PC 5 (+1)(-)

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084442013495552?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    isam said:

    Hope our Poll-iceman doesn’t mind these being posted. They’re relatively bad for Reform so should be ok

    🆕 Our latest MRP for the Sunday Times estimates Reform UK would be just a seat shy of a majority and far above any other party but for the first time down on a previous MRP estimate. The Greens achieve their highest score we’ve recorded on 22 seats

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084434841169922?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Seat totals, change with 2024 and change since last MRP as below.

    ➡️REF UK 324 (+319) (-57)
    🌹LAB 101 (-310) (+16)
    🌳CON 81 (-40) (+11)
    🔶LIB DEM 62 (-10) (+27)
    🟡SNP 26 (+17) (-14)
    💚GRN 22 (+17) (+13)
    ⬜️OTH 10 (+5) (+4)
    🟩PC 5 (+1)(-)

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084442013495552?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I'm actually surprised the LDs woud retain so many in that situation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,938
    Beshear would certainly have some appeal to Middle America but I see him more as a VP pick than someone Democratic primary voters would pick to be their actual nominee in 2028
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,130
    MelonB said:

    I like Buttigieg, and think he’s exactly what we need here in Britain - intelligent, thoughtful but confident with it. But given how the American electorate are an entirely alien species who share few if any tastes or values with me, that probably means he doesn’t stand a chance.

    But to be frank, do any of them stand a chance? Are Trump and his firm really going to allow opposition parties a look in? Only our lingering imported American exceptionalism, that just assumes against all evidence that democracy will prevail there because we’ve watched lots of those movies, stops us from seeing this for what it is.

    A fascist dictatorship?

    I mean, it's not like Mussolini's Italy that just didn't bother. Almost every country in the world has 'elections' now. Most of them are rigged to some degree or another but I think even North Korea has elections; just the franchise is 'one person one vote'.

    So the US will have a 2028 election, of that I guarantee. But I do agree with you. The franchise will be restricted, gerrymandering will be pushed beyond all reason, and there will be 'election monitors' at polling stations to make sure you vote the right way. And if that fails, then just throw away all the ballots for the opposition after counting.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 916
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I need to come up with a decent does Beshear shit in the woods type pun.

    Is Beshear Catholic?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,480
    Foxy said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    It is not quite the same idea, but there are a number of ex-serviceman (including a lot of men who couldn't get through military trainining) currently living rough, and I would absolutely have a sort of reservist-cum-useful force, doing everything from 'pompier' style stuff to securing retail stores under threat of looting. We need an alternative to the police anyway - they are utterly useless.
    A lot of the homeless ex-military are either alcoholic or have PTSD or both. They need treatment and support, but may not be the best security force.
    Four star hotels for those who enter the country illegally.

    Veterans sleeping in doorways.

    I have no idea why Reform lead in the polls.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 916
    rottenborough said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/sarobertsonca/status/2043054889580843470

    PM Carney says the days of sending 70 cents of every dollar in military spending to the United States are over and gets a standing ovation

    Yep. Hit them where it really hurts. The military-industrial complex.
    Isn't that a rounding error compared to their own wealth transfers to Boeing & Co?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,005
    SandyRentool said:

    Foxy said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    It is not quite the same idea, but there are a number of ex-serviceman (including a lot of men who couldn't get through military trainining) currently living rough, and I would absolutely have a sort of reservist-cum-useful force, doing everything from 'pompier' style stuff to securing retail stores under threat of looting. We need an alternative to the police anyway - they are utterly useless.
    A lot of the homeless ex-military are either alcoholic or have PTSD or both. They need treatment and support, but may not be the best security force.
    Four star hotels for those who enter the country illegally.

    Veterans sleeping in doorways.

    I have no idea why Reform lead in the polls.
    Reform are leading in the polls because people have been fed lies like people entering the country illegally being put up in 4* hotels.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 29,525
    Did anyone else see this from ITN archive this week:

    Hormuz Tanker War | US-Iran Battle During Iran-Iraq War (1987)

    Across the summer of 1987, Iran and the US were engaged in a direct, but limited tanker conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. An instalment of the Iran-Iraq War, US warships engaged in actions against Iranian oil platforms and vessels suspected of hostile actions against international shipping, while the Chinese supported Iran with CSSC-2 Silkworm missiles and mines to disrupt global shipping traffic. During this time the US began flagging Kuwaiti tankers as American vessels to shield them from Iranian and Iraqi attacks.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRp1jq0X1dI

    It was from a time when the western world had proper leaders and proper navies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,938
    TheValiant said:

    MelonB said:

    I like Buttigieg, and think he’s exactly what we need here in Britain - intelligent, thoughtful but confident with it. But given how the American electorate are an entirely alien species who share few if any tastes or values with me, that probably means he doesn’t stand a chance.

    But to be frank, do any of them stand a chance? Are Trump and his firm really going to allow opposition parties a look in? Only our lingering imported American exceptionalism, that just assumes against all evidence that democracy will prevail there because we’ve watched lots of those movies, stops us from seeing this for what it is.

    A fascist dictatorship?

    I mean, it's not like Mussolini's Italy that just didn't bother. Almost every country in the world has 'elections' now. Most of them are rigged to some degree or another but I think even North Korea has elections; just the franchise is 'one person one vote'.

    So the US will have a 2028 election, of that I guarantee. But I do agree with you. The franchise will be restricted, gerrymandering will be pushed beyond all reason, and there will be 'election monitors' at polling stations to make sure you vote the right way. And if that fails, then just throw away all the ballots for the opposition after counting.
    North Korea is a one party state. US federal elections are run by state governments not the federal government and unless Trump is running again in 2028 or his son is GOP nominee, which Vance might have something to say about, he won't care less whether Vance or Buttigieg wins
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,702
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I need to come up with a decent does Beshear shit in the woods type pun.

    Beshear madness, that wood.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,938
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MelonB said:

    I like Buttigieg, and think he’s exactly what we need here in Britain - intelligent, thoughtful but confident with it. But given how the American electorate are an entirely alien species who share few if any tastes or values with me, that probably means he doesn’t stand a chance.

    But to be frank, do any of them stand a chance? Are Trump and his firm really going to allow opposition parties a look in? Only our lingering imported American exceptionalism, that just assumes against all evidence that democracy will prevail there because we’ve watched lots of those movies, stops us from seeing this for what it is.

    But Buttigieg read PPE at the dump that is the University of Oxford.

    Huge black mark against him if you ask me.
    So did your boy Dave
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 638
    isam said:

    Hope our Poll-iceman doesn’t mind these being posted. They’re relatively bad for Reform so should be ok

    🆕 Our latest MRP for the Sunday Times estimates Reform UK would be just a seat shy of a majority and far above any other party but for the first time down on a previous MRP estimate. The Greens achieve their highest score we’ve recorded on 22 seats

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084434841169922?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Seat totals, change with 2024 and change since last MRP as below.

    ➡️REF UK 324 (+319) (-57)
    🌹LAB 101 (-310) (+16)
    🌳CON 81 (-40) (+11)
    🔶LIB DEM 62 (-10) (+27)
    🟡SNP 26 (+17) (-14)
    💚GRN 22 (+17) (+13)
    ⬜️OTH 10 (+5) (+4)
    🟩PC 5 (+1)(-)

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084442013495552?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    It's hard to make any sense of this as they forgot to put the national party percentages in the results!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,826
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MelonB said:

    I like Buttigieg, and think he’s exactly what we need here in Britain - intelligent, thoughtful but confident with it. But given how the American electorate are an entirely alien species who share few if any tastes or values with me, that probably means he doesn’t stand a chance.

    But to be frank, do any of them stand a chance? Are Trump and his firm really going to allow opposition parties a look in? Only our lingering imported American exceptionalism, that just assumes against all evidence that democracy will prevail there because we’ve watched lots of those movies, stops us from seeing this for what it is.

    But Buttigieg read PPE at the dump that is the University of Oxford.

    Huge black mark against him if you ask me.
    So did your boy Dave
    Dave "AV is undemocratic, unfair, crazy, and obscure" Cameron.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,144
    Well that wasn't predictable was it?

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/W2yd4hgom28
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,938
    edited April 11
    Gaussian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I need to come up with a decent does Beshear shit in the woods type pun.

    Is Beshear Catholic?
    No he is a member of the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Beshear

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Church_(Disciples_of_Christ)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,702
    The deputy leader of Reform UK, Richard Tice, owns a property company - Quidnet REIT.

    From 2020 to 2022 it paid Tice and his trust £600k in dividends. Quidnet should have paid £120k of tax on those dividends. It didn't.

    A 🧵 with evidence from the company's own filings:
    https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2043052507799208208

    I look forward to the RefUKers using the forensic skills they sharpened on Rayner to similarly obsess over Tice.
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230
    bondegezou said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Foxy said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    It is not quite the same idea, but there are a number of ex-serviceman (including a lot of men who couldn't get through military trainining) currently living rough, and I would absolutely have a sort of reservist-cum-useful force, doing everything from 'pompier' style stuff to securing retail stores under threat of looting. We need an alternative to the police anyway - they are utterly useless.
    A lot of the homeless ex-military are either alcoholic or have PTSD or both. They need treatment and support, but may not be the best security force.
    Four star hotels for those who enter the country illegally.

    Veterans sleeping in doorways.

    I have no idea why Reform lead in the polls.
    Reform are leading in the polls because people have been fed lies like people entering the country illegally being put up in 4* hotels.
    Too right! Round here they’re being put in luxury flats
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,826
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I had a vegetarian meal for lunch. Does that mean that Casino chap calls me a woketard or what

    I've been vegetarian since 1991, when I was 16.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,263
    gettingbetter said:

    isam said:

    Hope our Poll-iceman doesn’t mind these being posted. They’re relatively bad for Reform so should be ok

    🆕 Our latest MRP for the Sunday Times estimates Reform UK would be just a seat shy of a majority and far above any other party but for the first time down on a previous MRP estimate. The Greens achieve their highest score we’ve recorded on 22 seats

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084434841169922?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Seat totals, change with 2024 and change since last MRP as below.

    ➡️REF UK 324 (+319) (-57)
    🌹LAB 101 (-310) (+16)
    🌳CON 81 (-40) (+11)
    🔶LIB DEM 62 (-10) (+27)
    🟡SNP 26 (+17) (-14)
    💚GRN 22 (+17) (+13)
    ⬜️OTH 10 (+5) (+4)
    🟩PC 5 (+1)(-)

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084442013495552?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    It's hard to make any sense of this as they forgot to put the national party percentages in the results!
    It's an Mrp it is supposed to predict seats not vote percentage
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    HYUFD said:

    Gaussian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I need to come up with a decent does Beshear shit in the woods type pun.

    Is Beshear Catholic?
    No he is a member of the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Beshear

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Church_(Disciples_of_Christ)
    There are so many splits and factions within religious denominations it's impossible to keep track of, but at least they could give left wing splinter groups a run for their money in the complex arcane differences department.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,130
    Nigelb said:

    The deputy leader of Reform UK, Richard Tice, owns a property company - Quidnet REIT.

    From 2020 to 2022 it paid Tice and his trust £600k in dividends. Quidnet should have paid £120k of tax on those dividends. It didn't.

    A 🧵 with evidence from the company's own filings:
    https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2043052507799208208

    I look forward to the RefUKers using the forensic skills they sharpened on Rayner to similarly obsess over Tice.

    I'm not great on Corporation tax, but companies don't pay tax on dividends declared. That's the job of the entity/person receiving those dividends to do so on their self assessed tax return.

    Whilst I don't obsess over Tice, the declaration that the company hasn't paid the 'tax' is correct. No tax is due.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 6,060
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MelonB said:

    I like Buttigieg, and think he’s exactly what we need here in Britain - intelligent, thoughtful but confident with it. But given how the American electorate are an entirely alien species who share few if any tastes or values with me, that probably means he doesn’t stand a chance.

    But to be frank, do any of them stand a chance? Are Trump and his firm really going to allow opposition parties a look in? Only our lingering imported American exceptionalism, that just assumes against all evidence that democracy will prevail there because we’ve watched lots of those movies, stops us from seeing this for what it is.

    But Buttigieg read PPE at the dump that is the University of Oxford.

    Huge black mark against him if you ask me.
    So did your boy Dave
    To adopt Camerons vernacular - should that not be "So did ya boi Daaaaaave! 👏🚀🇬🇧". He was very down with the kidz as I remember, bruv.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,151
    Nigelb said:

    The deputy leader of Reform UK, Richard Tice, owns a property company - Quidnet REIT.

    From 2020 to 2022 it paid Tice and his trust £600k in dividends. Quidnet should have paid £120k of tax on those dividends. It didn't.

    A 🧵 with evidence from the company's own filings:
    https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2043052507799208208

    I look forward to the RefUKers using the forensic skills they sharpened on Rayner to similarly obsess over Tice.

    Is that another one or the same REIT?
    From previous reports, it shouldn't have had any shareholders with >10% holding but Tice had >90%.
    HMRC gave the company 3 years to find other investors, they tried really hard, failed to do so and won't release any details due to confidentiality. It then ceased to be a REIT just before the 3 year deadline.
    Any challenge by HMRC would be on whether there was a genuine attempt to get other investors and dilute Tice's holding to <10%.
    Unless there are numerous other examples of REITs with similar stories, I can't see HMRC pursuing it.
    Hopefully they'll at least tighten the rules on REITs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,938
    edited April 11
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gaussian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I need to come up with a decent does Beshear shit in the woods type pun.

    Is Beshear Catholic?
    No he is a member of the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Beshear

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Church_(Disciples_of_Christ)
    There are so many splits and factions within religious denominations it's impossible to keep track of, but at least they could give left wing splinter groups a run for their money in the complex arcane differences department.
    In terms of Protestant denominations yes but the Roman Catholic church believes only it offers the full means to salvation and the fullness of the sacraments. Even the Orthodox church it believes to be in schism by failing to submit to Papal authority
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,426
    rottenborough said:

    "Their leaders are all gone" says leader who has sent his vice leader to negotiate on his personal behalf with erm... their leaders.

    Trump getting more tetchy by the hour as the clusterfuck comes home to haunt his final two years in office.



    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    58m
    “You don’t know anything” — Trump snaps at a female reporter

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043072247171060021

    It's a good job he hides his misogynistic tendencies so well.

    And that women are so dumb as not to see it.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,151
    TheValiant said:

    Nigelb said:

    The deputy leader of Reform UK, Richard Tice, owns a property company - Quidnet REIT.

    From 2020 to 2022 it paid Tice and his trust £600k in dividends. Quidnet should have paid £120k of tax on those dividends. It didn't.

    A 🧵 with evidence from the company's own filings:
    https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2043052507799208208

    I look forward to the RefUKers using the forensic skills they sharpened on Rayner to similarly obsess over Tice.

    I'm not great on Corporation tax, but companies don't pay tax on dividends declared. That's the job of the entity/person receiving those dividends to do so on their self assessed tax return.

    Whilst I don't obsess over Tice, the declaration that the company hasn't paid the 'tax' is correct. No tax is due.
    "REITs must withhold tax at source at the basic rate (20%)" Ooops!!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,397
    TheValiant said:

    Nigelb said:

    The deputy leader of Reform UK, Richard Tice, owns a property company - Quidnet REIT.

    From 2020 to 2022 it paid Tice and his trust £600k in dividends. Quidnet should have paid £120k of tax on those dividends. It didn't.

    A 🧵 with evidence from the company's own filings:
    https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2043052507799208208

    I look forward to the RefUKers using the forensic skills they sharpened on Rayner to similarly obsess over Tice.

    I'm not great on Corporation tax, but companies don't pay tax on dividends declared. That's the job of the entity/person receiving those dividends to do so on their self assessed tax return.

    Whilst I don't obsess over Tice, the declaration that the company hasn't paid the 'tax' is correct. No tax is due.
    It's REIT. I don't follow all the detail but as I understand it a REIT must retain 20% of dividends and pay direct to HMRC. It is a special property finance vehicle and different to normal company.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,191
    isam said:

    Hope our Poll-iceman doesn’t mind these being posted. They’re relatively bad for Reform so should be ok

    🆕 Our latest MRP for the Sunday Times estimates Reform UK would be just a seat shy of a majority and far above any other party but for the first time down on a previous MRP estimate. The Greens achieve their highest score we’ve recorded on 22 seats

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084434841169922?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Seat totals, change with 2024 and change since last MRP as below.

    ➡️REF UK 324 (+319) (-57)
    🌹LAB 101 (-310) (+16)
    🌳CON 81 (-40) (+11)
    🔶LIB DEM 62 (-10) (+27)
    🟡SNP 26 (+17) (-14)
    💚GRN 22 (+17) (+13)
    ⬜️OTH 10 (+5) (+4)
    🟩PC 5 (+1)(-)

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084442013495552?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I wouldn't describe 324 seats for Reform as relatively bad.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gaussian said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I need to come up with a decent does Beshear shit in the woods type pun.

    Is Beshear Catholic?
    No he is a member of the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Beshear

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Church_(Disciples_of_Christ)
    There are so many splits and factions within religious denominations it's impossible to keep track of, but at least they could give left wing splinter groups a run for their money in the complex arcane differences department.
    In terms of Protestant denominations yes but the Roman Catholic church believes only it offers the full means to salvation and the fullness of the sacraments. Even the Orthodox church it believes to be in schism by failing to submit to Papal authority
    If I remember my John Julius Norwich it took Rome a long long time to 'persuade' others to accept their primacy even when things were (mostly) unschismed. Not least, I would expect, given the importance of many cities of the East in early Christian development.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    Hope our Poll-iceman doesn’t mind these being posted. They’re relatively bad for Reform so should be ok

    🆕 Our latest MRP for the Sunday Times estimates Reform UK would be just a seat shy of a majority and far above any other party but for the first time down on a previous MRP estimate. The Greens achieve their highest score we’ve recorded on 22 seats

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084434841169922?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Seat totals, change with 2024 and change since last MRP as below.

    ➡️REF UK 324 (+319) (-57)
    🌹LAB 101 (-310) (+16)
    🌳CON 81 (-40) (+11)
    🔶LIB DEM 62 (-10) (+27)
    🟡SNP 26 (+17) (-14)
    💚GRN 22 (+17) (+13)
    ⬜️OTH 10 (+5) (+4)
    🟩PC 5 (+1)(-)

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084442013495552?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I wouldn't describe 324 seats for Reform as relatively bad.
    That depends on what it is relative to. I expect isam was being tongue in cheek, but it was a technically true statement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,938
    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    Hope our Poll-iceman doesn’t mind these being posted. They’re relatively bad for Reform so should be ok

    🆕 Our latest MRP for the Sunday Times estimates Reform UK would be just a seat shy of a majority and far above any other party but for the first time down on a previous MRP estimate. The Greens achieve their highest score we’ve recorded on 22 seats

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084434841169922?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Seat totals, change with 2024 and change since last MRP as below.

    ➡️REF UK 324 (+319) (-57)
    🌹LAB 101 (-310) (+16)
    🌳CON 81 (-40) (+11)
    🔶LIB DEM 62 (-10) (+27)
    🟡SNP 26 (+17) (-14)
    💚GRN 22 (+17) (+13)
    ⬜️OTH 10 (+5) (+4)
    🟩PC 5 (+1)(-)

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084442013495552?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I wouldn't describe 324 seats for Reform as relatively bad.
    No, Farage still PM on that MiC MRP with DUP support, he wouldn't even need the Tories for a majority
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    Hope our Poll-iceman doesn’t mind these being posted. They’re relatively bad for Reform so should be ok

    🆕 Our latest MRP for the Sunday Times estimates Reform UK would be just a seat shy of a majority and far above any other party but for the first time down on a previous MRP estimate. The Greens achieve their highest score we’ve recorded on 22 seats

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084434841169922?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Seat totals, change with 2024 and change since last MRP as below.

    ➡️REF UK 324 (+319) (-57)
    🌹LAB 101 (-310) (+16)
    🌳CON 81 (-40) (+11)
    🔶LIB DEM 62 (-10) (+27)
    🟡SNP 26 (+17) (-14)
    💚GRN 22 (+17) (+13)
    ⬜️OTH 10 (+5) (+4)
    🟩PC 5 (+1)(-)

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/2043084442013495552?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I wouldn't describe 324 seats for Reform as relatively bad.
    No, Farage still PM on that MiC MRP with DUP support, he wouldn't even need the Tories for a majority
    Don't need an absolute majority with SF of course, I think 324 would put them just over the edge of a technical majority of non-abstentionist MPs.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,191
    324 seats would of course be a working majority in the HoC unless Sinn Fein suddenly decided to take their seats which is unlikely.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,397
    edited April 11
    Andy_JS said:

    324 seats would of course be a working majority in the HoC unless Sinn Fein suddenly decided to take their seats which is unlikely.

    Might be worth it for them for the laffs to stick one to the Little Englander???
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,938
    edited April 11
    rottenborough said:

    Andy_JS said:

    324 seats would of course be a working majority in the HoC unless Sinn Fein suddenly decided to take their seats which is unlikely.

    Might be worth it for them for the laffs to stick one to the Little Englander???
    Only if they held the balance of power, if the DUP/TUV did then they still wouldn't bother.

    It would likely require therefore Labour + LD + SNP+ Green+PC+SDLP+Independent to be on about 320 seats combined in a very hung parliament for SF to decide to take their seats to keep Labour in and Reform and the Tories out.

    Reform and the Tories would almost certainly have a majority in England though in such a scenario even if not the UK and SF would likely demand a border poll on Irish unity as the price of supporting Labour, as the SNP would want indyref2
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,397
    MarqueeMark said:

    rottenborough said:

    "Their leaders are all gone" says leader who has sent his vice leader to negotiate on his personal behalf with erm... their leaders.

    Trump getting more tetchy by the hour as the clusterfuck comes home to haunt his final two years in office.



    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    58m
    “You don’t know anything” — Trump snaps at a female reporter

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043072247171060021

    It's a good job he hides his misogynistic tendencies so well.

    And that women are so dumb as not to see it.
    As ever he is projecting.

    One of the absolute keys to understand Trump is that vast majority of what he says is projection.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 103,818
    rottenborough said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rottenborough said:

    "Their leaders are all gone" says leader who has sent his vice leader to negotiate on his personal behalf with erm... their leaders.

    Trump getting more tetchy by the hour as the clusterfuck comes home to haunt his final two years in office.



    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    58m
    “You don’t know anything” — Trump snaps at a female reporter

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2043072247171060021

    It's a good job he hides his misogynistic tendencies so well.

    And that women are so dumb as not to see it.
    As ever he is projecting.

    One of the absolute keys to understand Trump is that vast majority of what he says is projection.
    It's very, very obvious as well, which makes it frustrating that so many millions of people instead see his lashing out deflections as signs of incredible strength.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,276
    bondegezou said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    It is not quite the same idea, but there are a number of ex-serviceman (including a lot of men who couldn't get through military trainining) currently living rough, and I would absolutely have a sort of reservist-cum-useful force, doing everything from 'pompier' style stuff to securing retail stores under threat of looting. We need an alternative to the police anyway - they are utterly useless.
    Or we could just fund the police better. That would be the more efficient approach rather than setting up a parallel force.

    Either way, we need more money to pay for it.
    I think there's a lot to be said for overlapping agencies. It means they compete to be good at their job.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,191
    Interesting to see that we're exporting energy to France, Netherlands, Norway at the moment, which is unusual.

    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,597
    edited April 12
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I need to come up with a decent does Beshear shit in the woods type pun.

    To Beshear or not to Beshear - that is the question.

    EDIT: Fairliered beat me to it.

  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 931
    From previous thread....

    I have had horse steak quite often in France - I didnt mind it. I also had raw horse meat in China - it didnt kill me but I wont go looking for it.

    And while I have had some excellent goat and mutton dishes - I have also had some terrible ones. I wont order it from the menu unless someone I trust has tried it already and recommended it.

    But beaver sushi is 5*
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,954
    boulay said:

    Is it possible that if we introduced a draft for a sort of military national service for anyone unemployed and physically fit between the ages of 18 and, say, 30 and refusal lost benefits, we would suddenly find people taking up jobs they wouldn’t otherwise take and increase the size of the military? I’m sure there are downsides but surely it’s an option.

    Isn't the slight snag with this that we've spent the last 40 years hiding true unemployment rate in a mixture of incapacity benefits and worthless degree courses, thus making the pool of fit youngsters actually on the dole rather smaller than one might think.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,380
    School dinner rules to ban chicken nuggets and fruit-free puddings
    All desserts must contain 50% fruit under the biggest menu overhaul since 2012
    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/education/article/school-dinners-law-ban-chicken-nuggets-fish-chips-doughnuts-dqfh9pms8 (£££)

    50 per cent fruit desserts. Hmm. A lot of fruit-based desserts need an awful lot of sugar to make them palatable. Maybe they could just hand out apples (sweet varieties anyway) and bananas.
This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2026