Labour leads Reform by 8% (on preferred choice) – politicalbetting.com
Labour leads Reform by 8% (on preferred choice) – politicalbetting.com
If this sort of lead becomes consistent then Labour might be more optimistic that they could enough tactical anti-Reform votes but we’re a long way from that
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As the whole fiasco unfolds Kemi can also explain how she cautioned Starmer on his adjacency to Trump.
Thankfully we don't live in such a forced choice universe.
Sadly even with our many parties, I don't see any competent ones.
https://x.com/wallaceme/status/2039784066128429376?s=61
He's become a Roman Catholic, in a process which I think would bear comparison with Tony Blair's motivations. In the sense of Cardinal JH Newman, he is looking for something more comprehensive and 'fully orbed' than he has known before. Brits, especially High or liberal catholic Anglicans, can feel an attraction to the RC world which is almost magnetic in its feel.
Britain is quietly awakening to full-fat supernatural Christianity
I have turned to Rome and I am not alone in wanting to be part of an ethereal reality sustained by a creator God
Full article link: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/82c46688e81c1311
(Personally I think he is a little confused in some of the background he puts forward, and reacting more to his own perceptions eg about "woke", and not that well informed - but it is worth a read nonetheless. As is his habit he is on there replying to commenters at 10am ie now.)
Yet another article says he’s safe.
Marmalade should not need labelling because the only decent proper marmalade (including the posh stuff) is home made. The rest is rubbish.
Top tip I found this year for January's yearly production: Black treacle. I am always trying to find ways to make it more bitter and black treacle is the latest attempt.
Also for those of you on statins and who might eat lots of the really strong stuff a little known fact is the concentration of furanocoumarins in Seville oranges is similar to Grapefruit and the highest concentration by an order of magnitude is in the peel and pith, so if you are an addict of strong marmalade you might want to check which statin you are on.
OK after that pearl of wisdom I an off again now until the locals maybe.
Trying to govern an extraordiarily complex and multi-layered population of nearly 70 million people isn't easy and even more so in an era of incredible demographic, technological and social changes and challenges.
I wouldn't want to do it - those who do, however, and here I do agree with you, need to have a wider conception of what they are trying to do and be more resolute in pursuing an objective which they need to define clearly. It may not be an objective you or I support and the method of achieving it may not be, in our view, the most appropriate and that's part of political discourse and argument but the current administration seems not to have a broad sense of what kind of government they want to be and what kind of society they wish to see evolve.
That may be how you define "competence" (it's not a bad start).
MY view is ideas seem not to be thought through to logical and definitive conclusions and in particular consequences are not considered. I don't know if it's the old post hoc ergo propter hoc at work but in a Government replete with advisers and thinkers, there should be someone who reasons round this or rather has the response lines ready when the criticisms come.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DWnsE--DThr/
It almost makes it worthwhile.
That is the beauty of opposition. Everyone remembers Iraq and how the Tories cautioned Blair not to involve the UK. Even it that wasn't entirely true.
Remember the election where UKIP won nearly 4m votes and no seats? 2029 is that on steroids. They will win seats, but with the trend against them and revulsion from so many voters, they will get shafted by the electoral system and tactical voting.
Farage will LOVE it. He doesn't want to be PM. He wants to endlessly agitate from the sidelines.
Today I've learnt what 'Florsheims' are. My life is slightly more complete.
Bloody Peruvian bears, coming over here eating our Marmalade Sandwiches.
https://youtu.be/6DafuN7wxuM?t=1174
I don’t want them to be in government. But this reminds me of people calling “the end of Trump” for the 37th time.
How prepared Tories are to accomodate that is another question entirely. Speaking as someone now rewedded to the Tory cause, given how the likes of Farage and Yusuf have talked about Conservatives they can do one.
(Roger. No more Mr Nice Guy)
I do like stuff that has either a tart or bitter taste. I have a Damson tree and a Damson crumble with no added sugar in the fruit and molasses in the crumble is lovely.
PS I haven't used limes, but I do put 2 lemons (peel and juice) in with 1 kg of Seville oranges.
Nigel Farage Conservatives has a ring to it.
Given the North Sea is largely irrelevant to this year’s crisis, Labour are sensible if they choose to scrape off the barnacle rather than wasting energy trying to explain why the North Sea is irrelevant to this year’s crisis.
They now need to double down on renewables, transmission and storage to scrape off a bit of the Green Party barnacle. The Lib Dems gave them a generous free hit yesterday with their irresponsible fuel duty policy.
Oddly enough I've never liked the stuff; I've tried a few sorts and really don't like any of them. I'm not really that keen on jam, either.
“No, Vatican City is not part of the European Union (EU) or the European Economic Area (EEA). As a sovereign, theocratic, absolute monarchy, it does not meet the democratic criteria required for EU membership. However, it is deeply integrated through open borders with Italy, use of the euro, and special agreements”.
I expect recovery from the establishment parties.
https://www.ft.com/content/35f79237-630c-4b04-8e5a-57394ad2b2f6
Says, against all expectations, they have been “remarkable”, a definite “success”, boosting output in the USA, aiding employment, etc. It adds that this has made economists look like idiots, and has “collapsed” economic orthodoxy
“The past year has also proved as disruptive to the discipline of economics and the overconfidence of its most prominent practitioners as it has been to supply chains. The folly of tariffs was among their most deeply held beliefs, hard-coded into their models, proudly professed in every interview. Tariffs, they insisted, would lead to sharply higher inflation and much slower growth, a likely recession and millions of jobs lost. They would prompt retaliation and lead to appreciation of the dollar, crippling exporters and leading to further deindustrialisation.
“But none of this happened. The dollar weakened. Countries came to the table rather than retaliating and reached agreements favourable to the US. Inflation slowed, logging an increase in the price level of 2.4 per cent over the past 12 months, as compared to 2.8 per cent for the previous year. Real GDP growth accelerated, up an annualised 2.9 per cent over the last three quarters of 2025, as compared to 2.5 per cent in 2024.”
I'm in trouble this morning because an extra box of Hello Fresh just arrived which I thought I had cancelled. I have a Two Person x Two Meal box which would do 5 or 6 meals for me, as a variation. So that is 5 extra meals to account for
I'll be switching back from one a fortnight to one a month, and adding the extra not removing them.
.........Even then she hasn't the political brain to score a single point........ It's an OPEN GOAL. She's F''''ing useless.
What wouldn't you give for another Charlie Kennedy......
The FT has had quite a collection of "guest" articles from MAGA cultists in the last few months. The most recent Bessent one was my favourite, I think.
This was my comment on his thread:
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It's an interesting piece. Thank-you.
To me your account has the feel of Tony Blair's motivations. In the sense of Cardinal JH Newman, Blair was looking for something more comprehensive and 'fully orbed' than he has known before. Brits, especially High or liberal catholic Anglicans (I have no idea where you have come from - nominal Anglican?), can feel an attraction to the RC world which is almost magnetic in its feel and centred around the "other" and the numinous.
I'm interested in how your embrace of Rome will affect your politics, and whether you will be a JD Vance style Roman Catholic, or a Pope Leo type Roman Catholic, or be inspired by Archbishop Romero, or Vincent Donovan, or something entirely different? In my view faith which does not inform politics is stunted.
I'm disagreeing with some of your interpretations - for example Church of England attendance has grown in each of the last 5 years, and vigorous growth in the Greek Orthodox church through offering a distinctly traditionalist experience of the "other" was already a thing in the 1980s when I became interested in the topic. The online Orthobro movement seems to me to be a branch of the manosphere, and about self-justification.
It’s an opinion piece by Oren Cass, lifelong tariff fan. The equivalent of Roy Spencer writing an opinion piece in the FT about how climate change isn’t as bad as you think, or John McDonnell writing that the minimum wage hasn’t affected jobs that much so let’s double it.
Chance to check if the polling is leading the votes or if the votes will lead the polls (again)
There is a very real possibility Farage could win and nothing to date in polls or actual local results suggest anything other than a shellacking for labour and the conservatives at the expense of Reform and Greens with SNP and Plaid in Scotland and Wales
We can shout as much as we want about how obnoxious Farage and Polanski are but they remain very much in poll position, certainly for May
Hunt or Cleverley could easily see Tories in 200 to 225 seat range.
In a democracy anyone can win. It would be great if Farage had no chance but it just is not true. Those of us who oppose him need to defeat him, not merely assume we will do so.
I am getting more religious as I age. And it’s not just the greater proximity of death. It becomes evermore obvious, to me, that the universe is shaped with a purpose. Fuck knows what it is, but ineffability is part of the deal
Yesterday I had a call from an old friend. He and his wife have joined a church (quite unexpectedly). I wonder if there is a subtle return to faith out there, even tho the data is disputed
Happy Easter, PB
The British Right are so high on the US Trumpian Right's smoke trials that they are giddy most of the time.
Get to choose whichever god tickles your fancy and many of them desire festivities that can involve copious amounts of alcohol and not just a tiny sip of blood-alcohol.
We drill as much as possible over the next 20 years (as are Norway) to gain tax revenue estimated at 25 billion over the next 10 years, and use that to ease household bills and invest in renewables to get the best of both worlds
Kemi has led the way with this since last September, and supported now by the unions, the SNP, up to 40 labour mps, and according to the media this morning by Reeves, so Miliband either approves the licences or the pressure for him to be sacked will be intense
He found a niche as a global spokesman. He weakness domestically as being bland and not poverty political, is a massive strength on the global stage where he is calm and assured.
NF have often won the first round but lost the second.
Our NF winning a plurality in a majority of seats on polling day would be catastrophic and we would not be saved by a second round.
Tsk
Parliament is in recess, and MPs are once again scattered across the country, back in their constituencies. In North West Essex, Kemi Badenoch will be pleased: once again, she tops ConservativeHome’s Shadow Cabinet League Table, with a net satisfaction rating of +82.1 (up 0.5 points).
It is the third Shadow Cabinet League Table in a row in which she has come first. The first time she reached pole position was shortly before Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform UK. It underlines the marked shift from her earlier performances in ConservativeHome’s polling, when there were times that she was languishing on zero.
But it also reflects the way her personal polling has improved dramatically in recent months. Badenoch is now the most popular of all the party leaders. According to the think tank More in Common, the Tory leader’s net approval rating has risen to -9. That may not sound like much, but it puts her ahead of the pack. Sir Keir Starmer is on -42, while Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski are both on -16, with Ed Davey on -11.
We should be both extracting oil and transitioning away from it. Ideally we should be self-sufficient in oil and gas.
There are a couple of real moderately useful reasons to continue to exploit the North Sea. Government revenues isn't one one of them, nor are we going to see lower energy bills because of it.
But as @MelonB states the big prize is renewables and electrification.
Not a member state though.
St Dunstan-in-the-West on Fleet Street is a City Church with a real (Romanian Orthodox) iconostasis inside (they share the building), from St Antim Monastery in Bucharest, installed in 1966. They also have the oldest public clock in London from 1671, with Gog and Magog striking the hours, and the oldest outdoor public statue of Queen Elizabeth I.
If I recommended a visit to one other City Church, it would be the Roman Catholic one of St Mary Moorfields (1791), which is almost camouflaged in a row of buildings on Eldon Street near Finsbury Circus, and is such a surprise to see the inside.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/vrDMzvgm42krcGnCA
Yes - happy Easter to all PB.
Indeed Orthodox clerics have a reputation for drinking
I once spent a week in the quasi-independent monastic theocracy of Mount Athos (where no women are allowed, even hens get chased away). It’s divinely beautiful, you walk from monastery to monastery. There’s a couple of villages with shops and bars run by monks. It’s all intensely weird
The food everywhere is execrable, but for one thing: in some of the monasteries they serve very decent if quite green homemade wine. Sometimes even at breakfast (which otherwise might consist of a hunk of bread, a hunk of cheese, and a few olives)
'
That is the hub' of the argument and economic vandalism inflicted on our country by those who cannot see we should transition and take North Sea tax income from profits which even with the high tax would still provide 25 billion over 10 years
At least is seems to finally be getting through to Reeves who knows she has to explore every chance of gaining income and I expect both the Jackdaw and Rosebank fields to be approverd
People will call me crazy but I can still totally see the next election polling slowly moving to something like Tories 25%, Labour 25%, Reform 19-20%
NEWSMAX: I wonder if you can respond to some breaking news we got a few moments ago that the Secretary of War has asked the Army Chief of Staff to step down
REP. McCORMICK: That would be news to me. That would be very surprising. I'd look into it immediately, because Gen. George is a brilliant mind.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2039814337582301458
(Mind you, this is the same guy who thought the US won in Vietnam.)
Hawksmoor is possibly my favourite. My heart leaps every time I see Christ Church Spitalfields, the concentrated power.
For pure noom, however, St Bartholomew the Great is great. And personally St Sepulchre-without-Newgate has a special place. I went in there alone to pray on the first day of my rape trial at the Old Bailey across the road, like many Londoners for centuries before me. Because the Bailey was Newgate, of course
Perhaps made with Portuguese quince (marmeleiro)
Recipe from Eliza Acton’s 1845 book Modern Cookery
https://britishfoodhistory.com/2013/01/23/the-original-quince-marmalade/