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No wonder JD Vance isn’t a fan of the war – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,763
    Sean_F said:

    Apocalyptic for Labour

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2039067800958861792

    POLL | Labour to lose Birmingham Council

    ⚪️ Ind: 31 (+31)
    🟢 Grn: 22 (+20)
    ➡️ Ref: 19 (+19)
    🔴 Lab: 11 (-54)
    🔵 Con: 10 (-12)
    🟠 Lib: 8 (-4)

    Source:
    @Bombeplatform
    , Mar '26 (+/- vs 2022)

    Result being unpalatable (to me anyway) aside, thars a proper rainbow council
    That looks like Belfast City Council on steroids.

    Hamas/Sinn Fein the biggest party, Reform/DUP the opposition.
    Current composition of Belfast City Council:

    Total: 60 seats

    SF 22
    DUP 14
    APNI 11
    SDLP 5
    Green 3
    UUP 2
    PBP 1
    TUV 1
    Ind 1

    Nationalist 27
    Unionist 17
    Other 16
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,083
    Not clear from Ruperts proclamation if the 10 candidates Restore can manage this year will run as Restore or as GY First as both are registered
    Either way, utterly pathetic effort from 'a new nationsl party thats the last chance to save the UK' even if they win the GY wards
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,743

    Apols if this has already been covered.

    "Three Reform candidates quit in one Welsh constituency"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cje47941j4qo

    TBH, until I saw it was posted yesterday I imagined it was an April fool.

    "A Reform source confirmed that Derek Roberts, who was the party's second on the list in Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg, has stood down for "personal reasons" that have not been made public.

    "The party's sixth candidate, Owain Clatworthy, has left in protest at the selection process. Both decisions emerged after Corey Edwards, the first candidate on the list, stood down last week after a photo appeared to show him performing a Nazi salute."

    Looks like there is a competition between Reform Scotland and Reform Wales as to who has the most bonkers candidates. Scotland possibly just ahead, at the moment? Come on, you Welsh!

    Reform have some horrendous candidates, but at least they don’t have Maggie Chapman.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,743
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    Apocalyptic for Labour

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2039067800958861792

    POLL | Labour to lose Birmingham Council

    ⚪️ Ind: 31 (+31)
    🟢 Grn: 22 (+20)
    ➡️ Ref: 19 (+19)
    🔴 Lab: 11 (-54)
    🔵 Con: 10 (-12)
    🟠 Lib: 8 (-4)

    Source:
    @Bombeplatform
    , Mar '26 (+/- vs 2022)

    Who are the independents, and do they have a campaign?
    Here's your answer.

    https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/independents-join-forces-electoral-pact-33644265

    Gaza, Kashmir and Galloway.
    That’s a helluva large constituency!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,063
    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky

    The problem with casting a closer relationship with Europe as the solution to the world's current economic malaise is that it kind of misses the point.
    The key problem at present is a shortage of ENERGY.
    Europe has an energy deficit.
    Up until 2022 it filled that gap with gas from Russia.
    Now it fills that gap with gas (and oil) from the US and Middle East.
    It swapped one dependency for another.
    We can debate whether that dependency is inevitable, the extent to which it's a function of geology and/or political decisions taken years ago.
    Regardless, right now Europe is highly exposed to the problems in the Gulf. And without US energy imports it is in BIG trouble.
    A closer relationship between the UK and the EU does not solve this conundrum.

    https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/2039301881613218107

    I think renewables as a share of energy production in Europe is up 6 percentage points between 2022 and 2025. That’s the other side of this equation. If Europe, including the UK, can keep pushing that number up, and accelerate the increase, then we solve the problem. Big international cooperative projects, like the one to support offshore wind power in the North Sea, are part of that and are helped by that closer relationships between the UK and EU. The unreliable nature of much renewable power is also helped by pan-European cooperation.
    Bollocks. Doing that only bakes in higher energy costs. There is no country with a high level of penetration of wind and solar in its energy mix that does not have higher than average energy costs. If I'm lying, find one.

    Spain is 60% renewables, and has some of the lowest prices in the EU.

    I'm curious what your alternative would be for Europe ?
    The lowest prices 'in the EU'. I really don't care what Europe does, I just don't want us to be pulled down with them.
    Right now, the higher ther proportion of renewables in your electricity generation mix (Spain, Portugal, Switzerland and Norway being the top), the lower the electricity price.

    Now that's not always going to be the case, but -at the same time- if the Straits of Hormuz remain closed to LNG traffic for a sustained period of time, you are really, really, really going to want non-hydrocarbon generation in the mix. (There is no chance of meaningful quantities of new UK natural gas coming on stream on five year view. Nor is HPC likely to go live on that time horizon.)
    Now with a nice chart:


    How are Spain pulling that off?
    Not much connection across the Pyrenees, so Iberia is closeish to a closed system.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 127,203

    NEW THREAD

  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,830
    dixiedean said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Apocalyptic for Labour

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2039067800958861792

    POLL | Labour to lose Birmingham Council

    ⚪️ Ind: 31 (+31)
    🟢 Grn: 22 (+20)
    ➡️ Ref: 19 (+19)
    🔴 Lab: 11 (-54)
    🔵 Con: 10 (-12)
    🟠 Lib: 8 (-4)

    Source:
    @Bombeplatform
    , Mar '26 (+/- vs 2022)

    Pro Gaza alliance to run Brum.
    Which will be even worse for Birmingham
    Mahmood and Phillips are frankly toast at next GE to Pro Gaza or Galloway
    Assuming three years of running the City Council has no electoral impact whatsoever.
    May be over majority of the City but wards Mahmood and Phillips are in will be tough.

  • TazTaz Posts: 26,445

    Not clear from Ruperts proclamation if the 10 candidates Restore can manage this year will run as Restore or as GY First as both are registered
    Either way, utterly pathetic effort from 'a new nationsl party thats the last chance to save the UK' even if they win the GY wards

    National
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,445
    Brixian59 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Apocalyptic for Labour

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2039067800958861792

    POLL | Labour to lose Birmingham Council

    ⚪️ Ind: 31 (+31)
    🟢 Grn: 22 (+20)
    ➡️ Ref: 19 (+19)
    🔴 Lab: 11 (-54)
    🔵 Con: 10 (-12)
    🟠 Lib: 8 (-4)

    Source:
    @Bombeplatform
    , Mar '26 (+/- vs 2022)

    Pro Gaza alliance to run Brum.
    Which will be even worse for Birmingham
    Mahmood and Phillips are frankly toast at next GE to Pro Gaza or Galloway
    Assuming three years of running the City Council has no electoral impact whatsoever.
    May be over majority of the City but wards Mahmood and Phillips are in will be tough.

    My sister lives in Phillips seat. Not far from where the old dog track used to be.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,431

    PaulM said:

    Occurs to me that the anniversary of the Falklands war is tomorrow and given what's going on with Trump/Starmer/NATO would be an opportune time for Milei to make his move.

    They have recently acquired some F-16s, but generally I think the Argentine armed forces are in relatively much worse state than the British compared to 1982.

    I don't think even Dura could foresee a failure of the British garrison to defend against an attempted Argentine invasion.
    The British Army is only there in Company strength so maybe 100 troops. If MPA is secured by the invaders then they'd have to hold out for months before any relief arrived. Doesn't seem likely..

    Bernard Manning will soon get fucking interested in the Falklands if/when he needs a distraction from domestic woes. He might see a window of opportunity while Trump is on office. Any future POTUS probably won't row in behind him like Trump will.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,765

    Nigelb said:

    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky

    The problem with casting a closer relationship with Europe as the solution to the world's current economic malaise is that it kind of misses the point.
    The key problem at present is a shortage of ENERGY.
    Europe has an energy deficit.
    Up until 2022 it filled that gap with gas from Russia.
    Now it fills that gap with gas (and oil) from the US and Middle East.
    It swapped one dependency for another.
    We can debate whether that dependency is inevitable, the extent to which it's a function of geology and/or political decisions taken years ago.
    Regardless, right now Europe is highly exposed to the problems in the Gulf. And without US energy imports it is in BIG trouble.
    A closer relationship between the UK and the EU does not solve this conundrum.

    https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/2039301881613218107

    I think renewables as a share of energy production in Europe is up 6 percentage points between 2022 and 2025. That’s the other side of this equation. If Europe, including the UK, can keep pushing that number up, and accelerate the increase, then we solve the problem. Big international cooperative projects, like the one to support offshore wind power in the North Sea, are part of that and are helped by that closer relationships between the UK and EU. The unreliable nature of much renewable power is also helped by pan-European cooperation.
    Bollocks. Doing that only bakes in higher energy costs. There is no country with a high level of penetration of wind and solar in its energy mix that does not have higher than average energy costs. If I'm lying, find one.

    Spain is 60% renewables, and has some of the lowest prices in the EU.

    I'm curious what your alternative would be for Europe ?
    The lowest prices 'in the EU'. I really don't care what Europe does, I just don't want us to be pulled down with them.
    Renewables costs upfront in solar panels, wind turbines and batteries etc, but from then on the electricity is free. Infrastructure to get and then burn fossil fuels also has upfront costs and continuing running costs. Moving towards renewables and electrification is a good investment and also a move towards energy independence.
    If the Government were buying and running turbines and panels, these points might be relevant, but it isn't, so they're not. The UK's wind and solar installations are built via auctions where the Government guarantees a minimum price - without those guarantees at a sufficient level, companies don't build them. And as companies know the Government must meet self-imposed renewables targets, they simply refuse to bid until the price rises to their liking. We keep hearing about how cheap solar panels are now - but the solar strike price has *risen* in recent years. So someone might be benefitting from the cheapness of solar but it isn't us.
    That's actually a legitimate criticism of our wind power regime, and I don't entirely disagree.
    But of course it's also true of much of the UK's utilities that we pay too much to overseas owners (thank Mrs T for that.)

    Solar is a bit different. CFDs did save customers money last year. The strike price fell 6.5% this year, and in any event only about 60% of solar capacityfalls under government CFD, and the percentage is falling.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,216

    Apocalyptic for Labour

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/2039067800958861792

    POLL | Labour to lose Birmingham Council

    ⚪️ Ind: 31 (+31)
    🟢 Grn: 22 (+20)
    ➡️ Ref: 19 (+19)
    🔴 Lab: 11 (-54)
    🔵 Con: 10 (-12)
    🟠 Lib: 8 (-4)

    Source:
    @Bombeplatform
    , Mar '26 (+/- vs 2022)

    Bombe platform isn't a member of the British Polling Council.

    I might pass a PB ruling prohibiting their use on PB.
    That'll be because it's not a polling company, and this isn't a poll. It's a projection based on a variety of inputs. I believe these include national polling, by-election results and demographic data. It obviously doesn't take into account targeted campaigning and may not consider other local factors.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,565
    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/2039397874614587537

    If the hooligans terrorising Clapham and assaulting police officers were white and waving the flag of St George, the police response would have been swift and heavy.

    Instead, the only arrests so far have been 3 teenage girls.

    Reform will end two tier policing.
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