Could the next UK general election be fought under the alternative vote system? politicalbetting.com
Could the next UK general election be fought under the alternative vote system?– politicalbetting.com
Will Labour embrace electoral reform? The party has an uneasy relationship with the idea of changing voting systems. But looking at the path set by staying with FPTP, a growing section of the PLP is beginning to agitate for change. My start of the week report for @newstatesman1913.bsky.social
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I was struck in the wee small hours just how many social media posts seem to have missed there are 31 days in March. And here we are.
Pete Hegseth is so spectacularly stupid that he used his insider knowledge of a strike on Iran to attempt a multimillion-dollar trade that LOST money
https://x.com/haramcart/status/2038754781682892898?s=20
That referendum should be done by AV.
Personally I’d support a change but I don’t see it happening anytime soon .
Let’s say they take fully baked legislation off the shelf day 1 and ram it through the commons. As it’s not in the manifesto the lords have no obligation to pass it. So the earliest it would get through would be - say late 27. Just about in time for a spring 29 election.
But it would be unseemly haste and, as you note, would be criticised as a strange priority
More generally, I am fed up with politicians who cover up their inability to deliver anything by picking a fight. The most egregious example is of course trump, but a portion of most parties seem to be keen on the idea, mostly because it makes them feel powerful. Yes, there is a portion of the population who are dumb enough to fall for this, and automatically pick a side to support in any dispute, but it's incredibly corrosive to society and ultimately it's a con - we need leaders who know how to make our lives better, not promises to make someone else more miserable.
I thought it was the 2003 war being talked about. Whether any American generals from the invasion of Iraq were still around.
The big losers would be Reform and to a lesser extent the Greens and SNP as Tory voters would vote Labour over the latter too. I don’t regret voting for AV in the 2011 referendum
However I don't think you can do it without either public support or a manifesto commitment and I just can't see this Government sitting down on TV and explaining why a new electoral system is required..
Personally I think FPTP is a crap system - as demonstrated by the fact it's not even used in national assemblies but no Government can unilaterally change it...
Their beef is with Long- Osborne rather than short Starmer.
Good morning, everyone.
It's the best euphemism I've heard for Blair blatantly lying when it suited him to get the LibDems into bed and then renging on his promise when he didn't need them any more.
I'll use that the next time my boss complains that I didn't do something I promised.
"Sorry, I just lost momentum today ..."
The Iranian strike on Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Airbase which destroyed a US E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft also damaged another of the $300 million planes, NPR is now reporting.
There are no easy replacements for the airborne warning and control system aircraft.
https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3midolbojoc2g
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on behalf of Donald Trump, expressed regret that the Saudi authorities signed defense agreements with Ukraine without consulting the United States, which had been Saudi Arabia’s main ally.
In response, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman noted that the U.S. had failed to fully protect the Kingdom from Iranian strikes, and therefore Saudi Arabia made a decision that could quickly strengthen its defense capabilities. The Crown Prince also stated that his country will continue to be guided by its own national interests when making decisions regarding its defense.
This was a slap in the face to Trump from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in response to Trump’s crude and scandalous public statement that “…now let the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia kiss my ass and be polite to me from now on.”
Thus, Trump’s reckless and irresponsible remarks have effectively put U.S.–Saudi relations on pause.
The Saudi Crown Prince proved to be more diplomatic than the American president and, notably, did not respond to Rubio by saying that Trump should “kiss my ass” and behave politely toward him in the future
https://x.com/MykhailoRohoza/status/2038721522949394750
https://yougov.com/en-gb/daily-results/20251212-ea164-1
The issue with AV is it tends towards the mediocre and inoffensive rather than people who stand up for what they believe in. It also undermines the sense of direct accountability (“more people voted for the MP so they got elected”) vs backroom calculations and dealing.
So nah. FPTP isn’t perfect but it’s simple and well understood (you vote for someone to represent your geographical area and the person with the most votes wins). There should be a very high bar to knocking down another institution just because
Can’t offhand think who it would be, - maybe Albanese? - but it would damage his credibility with those of his cabinet who are of course quite happy to pose with him while he looks successful but will drop him faster than Hegseth can down a pint if they think he will damage their chances of lucrative international careers later.
What he should be doing is promising to lower the bar to entering the profession, and, I don't know, suggesting any industrial action results in a year's lost pension contribution.
Speak quietly, and throw around an awful lot of stick.......
Unless you mean by that increasing training places so more people who meet the bar can get on them.
And that's the problem with first past the post it just about works when the MP is elected with 40%+ percent of the vote - it completely doesn't when you shift from a 2+1 party political system (as we had until 2020 or so) it simply doesn't work when you have a 4 or 5 party political system.
The Lords would not be under convention to pass it either so could well 'time it out' before implementation
Cameron described AV as "undemocratic, obscure, unfair and crazy".[78]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum#Campaigners_and_celebrities
He is not a Crown Prince to piss off. Given that the US base can't defend itself, the Saudis might wonder what benefit there is by having a US base at all. A thought others in the region might share, if it gets the oil flowing again.
https://x.com/akhmedyakoob1/status/2038680909180784810?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
A very simple AV is marginally better because it gives space to newbies to grow up and compete with the big boys because you can vote for them and a traditional party backup if you want.
Like Ratner they have both damaged their reputations and given the appalling state of competence and policy ideas of all parties, new and old, there is no voting system that can both provide a majority supported government. Most people will be voting against a party, not in favour of one.
For any voting system to work you need outstandingly capable parties and candidates. We don't.
The clue was in the whole “ask the Iraqis for tips on invading Iran” bit.
The only objection to it for political nerds is that the results take a long time to come out, so it makes election night less exciting.
@fan_fintwit
Trump's Iran Downfall
https://x.com/fan_fintwit/status/2038359107107967232?s=20
This will change as time goes on. At the next election the strong probability is that the left of centre will get well over 325 seats. This will accurately reflect a mood that the public dislike all parties but most of all don't want Reform, and a rainbow left of centre alliance is the least worst (though bad) option.
That’s Trump level dumb
Looks like the satellite based replacement is ever more likely.
There are about 10000 medical school school places per year, about 20000 people get an A or A* in chemistry and once you get below that level of science knowledge, I'm dubious that medicine is the right path for them.
Besides, we need some of those chemists to actually do chemistry.
Now FPTP gives Farage a chance of a majority and Reform a strong chance of most seats. AV would almost certainly prevent a Reform majority and ensure more Tory MPs beat Reform and held their seats. On AV I agreed with Nick not Dave
Someone with a mobile phone and binoculars could tell you when a plane has just taxied to one of them and shut down, crew left etc.
Which would mean it will be there for hours, at the minimum.
Rather than one person representing everyone in a small area, bigger areas elect a small group of representatives, such as 4 or 5. These representatives reflect the diversity of opinions in the area.
Which is a big move away from the single individual representing all the people of a single seat, which is one of FPTP's merits.
Greens in second place.
Making something scarce generally makes it more expensive.
What we need to do is
- reform the term and conditions of employment in the NHS. No, not no strike deals. Though that might be a part of it. What we need is modern stuff - currently the NHS appears to work on the system of “beatings will continue until moral improves”. 1950s T&Cs = 1950s industrial relations
- Increase training. At the moment the NHS vastly under supplies itself.
- The idea that there aren’t enough U.K. candidates suitable to be medics begs the question. Which is, how do the countries that produce a surplus of medics manage?
- increasing training will be slow and expensive. Do a perfect per year, over decades. Until the NHS is training a surplus of medics.
- In the meantime, look at sending graduates abroad to train. If we are taking tons of medics from the Philippines, why not train them there?
- student debt. Flip the telescope round. If the NHS takes over student debt and pays it back over some years, a grad becoming a doctor/nurse would not pay anything, if they devote part of their career to working in the NHS. “Become a medic. Get uni free”.
- End the system where U.K. graduates compete with the entire world for training places. If you finish a U.K. degree with good enough results, you should be guaranteed a training place. At the moment we are using overseas aid to pay for overseas candidate to take places in the training programs!
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/43960-liz-truss-already-less-popular-boris-johnson-ever-
The Conservatives were at 19% - OK, that's comparable to Labour but was 37 points behind the first placed party
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/44164-voting-intention-con-19-lab-56-20-21-oct-2022
Starmer's gone as low as -57 favourable but is now at -46, while Labour is still at 19% but is only 9 points behind the first placed party.
I hope most political parties put PR ranked choice (1,2,3) voting (but not a list system please) in their manifestos for the next GE so it can be passed without a referendum or stonewalling by the Lords.
LDs, Greens, Reform, SNP and PC are all in favour of some form of PR.
Only the current Labour and Tory leadership are against.
About 66% of Labour members and several major trade unions (including UNISON and Unite) support a move to PR but the current leadership under Keir Starmer has ruled out immediate changes, maintaining that FPTP is the "right system" for providing strong government. Ha. However Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan are strongly in favour of PR so a change in Labour leadership may change Labour's position on PR.
Angela Raynor is against PR for General Elections but despite her personal preference, she has previously said that she would support a move to PR if the Labour Party Conference voted to make it official party policy.
The Tory Party officially remains committed to First Past the Post, arguing it maintains a direct link between voters and their local MP. However, 2024–2025 polling suggests that support for PR among Conservative voters has increased significantly, reaching over 50% in some surveys, including HYUFD.
Labour’s poll ratings are undoubtedly terrible but Reform has never got close to Labour’s best polling during the 2019-2024 period.
To me it suggests Reform is not very popular and isn’t really in a good place to win a majority. It’s why I think Labour should change leaders in 2028.
Too much delegation and unable to think on his feet. An admirable attempt, but for the love of God man, go!
Reform UK: 23% (no change from 22-23 Mar)
Greens: 19% (+1)
Conservatives: 19% (+2)
Labour: 18% (-1)
Lib Dems: 12% (-1)
So my immediate second thought is - that's not the threat Starmer thinks it is, it gives some junior doctors something they want with the blame sat on the PM's shoulders... He really isn't very good at this politics lark is he..
A further difficulty is the relatively complicated nature of the alternatives. This is particularly true of D'Hondt, which is an excellent system but hard to explain without pencil, paper, and diagrams. Also, Brenda of Bristol is notoriously stupid, so explaining anything to her is going to be difficult even if it is obviously in her own best interests. So she ain't gonna have it, at any price. Since she has the same vote as those that do understand D'Hondt and much else, she is perfectly positioned to block any advance.
So it ain't gonna happen. Ever.
To say that we have all the possible candidates for becoming doctors is to argue that no child is being failed by the education system.
Not something that any teacher I have met thinks is true.
PR ranked choice (which I think is only seen in Anglo-Saxon countries for some reason) biases the system in favour of centrist parties - "I prefer Labour but I'll put up with the LibDems", etc. That msy be what many people want, but it's not fair. The list system, as practiced in Denmark, Sweden, Germany, etc., allows the voter to choose not just the party but the shade of opinion that they favour within the party, encounraging parties to offer a range of shades. In practice, like all PR systems, it usually leads to coalitions, which means that centrism wins anyway, but as an electoral choice rather than a systemic feature.