The end of the Keir show might be delayed – politicalbetting.com
The end of the Keir show might be delayed – politicalbetting.com
“The right of the party know none of their candidates can win, and the soft left are already getting everything they want, so why bother changing leader?”Why Labour MPs now believe Starmer will survive the party’s looming election disaster.https://t.co/akl4hH17oD
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💡 Just found this from Hartley Booth (Margaret Thatcher's successor as Finchley MP) in 1992.
🗣️ 'Hon. Members will be grateful to hear that I have consulted the people of Finchley on the issue—
🗣️ '[HON. MEMBERS: "What did she say?"]'
https://x.com/expremiers/status/2037624447666889033?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
I am devastated.
The totals will be 1.3m and 39,000 respectively at some point next week.
Thinking about it , I wonder how much that was the thought process of Conservative MPs in the 2022 confidence vote; "Boris is obviously a disaster, but if we sack him it will be Sunak or Truss oh no the members will go for Truss..."
Then again, it feels like a loooong time since a General Election threw up two genuinely viable, non-discredited, candidates for PM.
But before that it might be Major and Kinnock.
Interesting Liz Truss Show guest Colin Brazier on the decline of Sky News - one for BigG!
Proud of this one the most.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/11/18/present-keirs-are-less-than-horrible-imaginings/
Blimey, that was just over a decade ago; feels like much longer. Good job we avoided all that chaos.
He's very expensive and complains a lot.
Good morning, everybody.
I’m sure it sounded a good idea on paper !!
You’ll satisfy no one
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2037629430915289400?s=61
Sky News seems to be winning the awards
https://www.skygroup.sky/en-gb/article/sky-news-secures-ninth-news-channel-of-the-year-award
Morning all.
So, by the established pattern, someone should report Morgan has been stolen next week
Every book you have ever read. Every novel that has ever been published. It is sitting inside ChatGPT right now.
Word for word. Up to 90% of it. And OpenAI told a judge that was impossible.
Researchers at Stony Brook University and Columbia Law School just proved it.
They fine tuned GPT-4o, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and DeepSeek V3.1 on a simple task: expand a plot summary into full text. A normal use case. The kind of thing a writing assistant is built for. No hacking. No jailbreaking. No tricks.
The models started reciting copyrighted books from memory.
Not paraphrasing. Not summarizing. Entire pages reproduced verbatim. Single unbroken spans exceeding 460 words. Up to 85 to 90% of entire copyrighted novels. Word for word.
Then it got worse.
The researchers fine tuned the models on the works of only one author. Haruki Murakami. Just his novels. Nothing else.
It unlocked verbatim recall of books from over 30 completely unrelated authors.
One author's books opened the vault to everyone else's. The memorization was already inside the model the whole time. The fine tuning just removed the lock. Your book might be in there right now. You would never know it unless someone looked.
Every safety measure the companies rely on failed. RLHF failed. System prompts failed. Output filters failed. The exact protections these companies cite in courtroom defenses did not stop a single page from being extracted.
Then the researchers compared the three models. GPT-4o. Gemini. DeepSeek. Three different companies. Three different countries. They all memorized the same books in the same regions. The correlation was 0.90 or higher.
That means they all trained on the same stolen data. The paper names the sources directly: LibGen and Books3. Over 190,000 copyrighted books obtained from pirated websites.
Right now, authors and publishers have dozens of active lawsuits against OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta. These companies have argued in court that their models learn patterns. Not copies. That no book is stored inside the weights.
This paper says that is a lie. The books are still inside. And researchers just pulled them out.
https://x.com/heynavtoor/status/2037638554374099409
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3Y_ozT_p3g
Amazing really that AI has for once proven that it's the owners giving out false information.
AI has generated about 30 times the output of all of humanity (And growing exponentially) so it's just feeding off itself now basically. The other night Google Gemini thought Roberto Carlos was dead lol
In this mornings Politico Playbook…
- Trump’s potential endorsement of Cornyn is dead
- Paxton had a “positive meeting” with Trump on Friday
- NRSC and SLF confirm they’ve abandoned Cornyn in the runoff
https://x.com/CarolineWren/status/2037513970442019182
-
I think a challenge could still come, the first step in a Labour challenge is not obviously that much harder than for the Conservatives, they just haven't had the need. And at that point, it's stick or twist, knowing you might not get another bite.
* Mentally, not literally, I don't possess such a book.
Andy Burnham: not an MP so can't stand
Wes Streeting: can't win from the right
Ed Miliband: on record as not wanting PM after his stint as LotO; said to want Chancellor and offered a pact with Rayner to that end; is already implementing his pet policy
Angela Rayner: even assuming the tax thing goes away in a couple of months, is said to have cold feet
After May and Boris and Liz and Rishi (and, for that matter, Kier) maybe the bloom has come off the rose. Maybe Prime Minister is a terrible job, hounded by the media, derided by the public, almost powerless, and with a tenure of a couple of years at most.
If you go into politics to get things done, your own department or (better) the Treasury are the places to be. If you want to be treated like a king, wafted around the world from banquet to banquet, Foreign Secretary. Only if you became an MP with the ambition of being insulted weekly by the American president is the top of the greasy pole worth the climb.
I once went up the Durham Coast behind a Class 40 on the Scarborough - Newcastle. Happy days.
Ooh. Class Action lawsuit by Epstein victims about disclosure of their identities by the US Department of Justice and Google:
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/27/us/epstein-survivors-sue-doj-google-hnk
Glen Kirchner commentary:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jOL8vIsmtU
Bank of America ouit of Court settlement with Epstein victims in case for enabling Epstein's financial operations:
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/jeffrey-epstein-bank-of-america-lawsuit-settle.html
The fact a Texas Attorney General the highest legal officer in a state can remain in post after a series of allegations that were apparently good enough for 60 GOP members who clearly would rather do anything but convict shows the cesspit the US finds itself in .
Less than fantastic but imagine I'll offer a tip.
The 'mention' of backing Hadjar to beat Verstappen might be hedgeable. Odds were 5.25.
That didn't happen last time, and since then we've lost lefty members to the Greens and Your Party.
So if it were, for example, Streeting v Rayner, I don't see it as a shoo-in for the latter.
The deputy leader result was closer than many expected, and that was in part a 'stick 2 fingers up at Starmer' protest vote.
On the issue of AI and books, musicians are complaining about AI using their music without permission to be able to generate AI music and it’s unfair and they should be paid. Do these musicians ever consider that their own efforts are equally formed by their musical experience - they will be heavily influenced by styles and actual sounds consciously and sub-consciously. Listen to any musician and the chances are you can recognise past songs in their music. Unless a musician creates a brand new style then they are doing effectively what they complain AI can do.
Starmer may well survive, but the future for both Starmer and labour looks grim buffeted from the extreme right and left with absolutely no money
But in a way that also makes the point. He was forced out by Brown and his supporters, and there's no heir apparent ready to take over now. The situation is very much resistable force meets movable object.
Even if Labour MPs did want to remove Starmer Labour leadership rules mean that members would get the final say, unlike the Tories rules where Tory MPs get the final say on a VONC. Hence Corbyn was re elected by Labour members despite most MPs nominating Owen Smith to replace him. So the odds are SKS will stay but if Labour are third or worse on the NEV in May behind not only Reform but the Tories and even maybe the Greens too then you would expect Rayner to challenge Starmer if she can get enough MPs to nominate her. Rayner would then likely win the membership vote and Starmer, the only Labour leader other than Blair to have won a general election in the last 50 years would find himself like Blair as the only Labour leader forced out earlier than he wished, not least for the crime of not being leftwing enough for a party which unlike the Tories has traditionally put its heart ahead of its head
Clash Report
@clashreport
16 Feb
Palantir CEO Alex Karp:
I love the idea of getting a drone and having light fentanyl-laced urine spraying on analysts that tried to screw us.
https://x.com/clashreport/status/2023351922644705325?s=20
Richard Hanania
@RichardHanania
5 Dec 2025
Alex Karp: If you believe government shouldn’t murder people abroad, you lack sympathy for working class white males.
This is so stupid and disgusting. I thought I supported free markets but listening to these tech guys is going to make me a communist.
https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1997033669975068800?s=20
Portillo vs Brown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XuwPAAXiXP0
BBC/Michael Cockerell documentary from 2001 that has just popped up on YouTube.
Which reminds me, I think MP has some new train programmes.
The activists within the Party are still primarily on the left. The silent majority who will decide the next leader are not.
True Promise - الوعد الصادق ✪🇮🇷
@IRTruePromise
1h
Trump: "They hit world's biggest aircraft carrier from 17 angles we ran for our lives it was over"
https://x.com/IRTruePromise/status/2037800464150839571?s=20
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have joined the war. They launched a missile strike on Israel.
Honestly it’s absurd performative crap which only works in Farage’s favour.
https://x.com/kevin_maguire/status/2037549426143576559?s=61
I foresee a war of the AIs, pitted against each other, polluting each others data.
Or perhaps they anticipate this, and establish MAD.
But this also is another example of the top job being a poison chalice. Brown had shown little interest in foreign affairs, and from the Treasury had largely controlled domestic policy for ten years already.
When Truss resigned the Tories were polling 19-23% in the polls in the week leading up to her resignation, albeit a bit higher with Omnisis and Techne.
So Rishi actually slightly increased the Tories average voteshare to 24% in 2024 relative to Truss but then under Kemi the Tories vote has gone back down to Truss levels and in some polls even lower
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022
Glorious here in East London currently but I see the greatest friend of the Liberal Democrats is claiming the Party is "cosying up" to the Greens. Really?
https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/ed-davey-dismisses-threat-dangerous-33656656
Obviously, the meaning of the term "cosying up" isn't well known in some places.
We also have ancient history in the form of people quoting the Verian poll which is days old and has been superceded by at least three surveys including BMG whose fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday.
On topic, we have plenty of form around changing leaders at times of international crisis so the old "you can't change a Prime Minister when there's a war on" schtick really doesn't work at all. The point of changing a leader is you should only do it when you either have no choice (after an election defeat or the death of an incumbent) or if there is a demonstrably better alternative waiting in the wings.
I don't see that alternative so unless Starmer chooses to go, he stays. The Conservatives adopt a very different approach as we know and I wonder whether even in that alternative universe where the Conservatives are in Government (it's not that difficult to create if you start with a Corbyn victory in 2017) whether they would be struggling to the same extent. It's impossible to know.
The exodus to the Greens is not being driven by anti-semitism, it is being driven by the Reform-adjacent policies of the Labour Party.
He is also largely responsible for Farage returning to politics and hence Kemi's polling issues.
You seem to think that the Tories indulging in Lib Demmery will sort the problem - it will not. Even Cameron relied on votes from the right, and he only succeeded because they had no viable alternative.
The Tories don't need LDemmery, they need to at minimum hold the Sunak 2024 vote to try and stay ahead of Reform and win back the voters Boris won in 2019 longer term to have any chance of winning a general election
It was a couple of years ago that people demonstrated that you could get huge chunks of copyrighted material out of various “AI”s
OpenAI was reported as having internal documents about the deletion of pirated training data a year ago - in pre trial discovery.
Iranian strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base damaged a U.S. E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft. (Air & Space Forces)
There is at least one thing most Tory MPs can agree on - the parliamentary party is a much happier place after Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman defected. One says: “It’s hard to overstate how much people breathed a sigh of relief when Robert and Suella left,”
https://bsky.app/profile/peterwalker99.bsky.social/post/3mi45lkyw3s2g