Denmark votes tomorrow and the last polls are all suggesting the "Red" bloc of parties are still narrowly ahead of the "blue" parties.
The current coalition of the Social Democrats, Liberals and Moderates is going to take a beating dropping from 50% to 35%. The parties set to gain seats are the Socialist People's Party (known as the Green Left), Liberal Alliance and the Danish People's Party but the split of Red to Blue parties looks close to last time when it was 49-42 to the Red Bloc. Voxmeter has 49-43, Megafon 49-44 and only Epinion, which traditionally is the strongest poll for the Blue bloc, has the Red bloc leading 47.5-46.
The question is whether Mette Frederiksen can assemble a new Government coalition of centre-left parties or whether a new centre-right administration couled be formed including the Moderates and led by the Liberal Alliance. The other question is whether Frederiksen's head will be the price for the deal on the centre-left exacted by Pia Olsen Dyhr.
The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.
Stop talking the UK down.
It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
TSE still bitter, ten years on...
Leave 52%
Remain 48%
[runs and hides!]
That doesn't really help.
Makes me feel better....
The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.
All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
Me too. Felt sick. My top 5 sickeners in order of nausea intensity as below:
1. Trump2 2. 1992 Con win 3. Brexit 4. 2015 Con win 5. Trump1
Definitely Brexit, when I went to bed Farage had conceded and was demanding a best of three, when I woke up Dimbleby said "we're leaving".
There was an inevitability about Trump 47.
1992 was a shock but the five years of comedy that followed culminating in '97 wasn't all bad.
Brexit for some of us was like the sudden death of a favourite uncle. And all the "suck it up loser, you lost" on here didn't help, particularly as it turned into an utter fiasco and gave us Boris Johnson and Liz Truss premierships.
OK, yes, I'll promote it to #2. But 5/11/24 is impregnable at the top. Massively consequential on many levels, wholly negative, utterly without redemption.
Made you look a complete plank too, which cannot have helped.
It did not. Wrong doesn't equal plank. Nobody can call everything right, not even me. Only reason people recall it so clearly is the rarity. Kuntibula wrong - a man bites dog story.
According to the Financial Times, citing two officials with knowledge on the matter, Pakistan has proposed that U.S.-Iran talks take place in the capital of Islamabad as early as this week. Pakistan's principal decision-maker, Army Chief Asim Munir, spoke with U.S. President Donald J. Trump on the matter yesterday while Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif held talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier today.
The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.
Stop talking the UK down.
It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
TSE still bitter, ten years on...
Leave 52%
Remain 48%
[runs and hides!]
That doesn't really help.
Makes me feel better....
The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.
All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
It's entirely the wrong attitude to lock something in for the long-term against the wishes of British electorate.
That's the principle for which many of us voted Leave in the first place.
Yes, and now the electorate appears to have changed its mind. Entirely the wrong attitude to oppose their having another say in the matter if they so choose
A few days ago Trump said that a former President had spoken to him and they had said to him that they regretted not attacking Iran. The press went round the offices of the living ex-Presidents and all of them denied having spoken to Trump recently.
It can't really be the case that Trump's peace talks are fictitious can it?
The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.
Stop talking the UK down.
It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
TSE still bitter, ten years on...
Leave 52%
Remain 48%
[runs and hides!]
That doesn't really help.
Makes me feel better....
The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.
All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
Me too. Felt sick. My top 5 sickeners in order of nausea intensity as below:
1. Trump2 2. 1992 Con win 3. Brexit 4. 2015 Con win 5. Trump1
Why did you have so much hate for John Major?
I didn't. But I'd had tory government my whole adult life and was sick of it. It looked like it was finally over and then - belly punch - it wasn't. It felt like a one party state, like they'd never go. I mean, if not now, when? So that was dark. Plus I was working on a city trading floor surrounded by wankers celebrating. Felt so alone.
The day Thatcher was out, I said this will mean the Tories win the next election.
As far as re-joining the EU is concerned, my view is encapsulated by a line from the classic The Boys of Summer - "those days are gone forever, I should just let them go".
We can't go back to the half-hearted, mean spirited, rebate-focussed, banana-obsessed membership we endured from 1973 to 2016. It does us no good and the EU wouldn't want that.
There were only two coherent policy positions and the Hokey Cokey expressed them beautifully - "you put your whole self in, your whole self out". That's still the case - we can quite happily stay out and make whatever kind of economic and political relationship we want with the EU or we can seek to re-join on the basis of being full and enthusiastic members. I imagine there remains no constituency for the Euro or even Schengen so I'm not sure what kind of membership we could have or would be acceptable and the big stumbling block remains Freedom of Movement within the Single Market.
I can't see any possibility of any British Government anytime soon being able to sell Freedom of Movement - without that, we can't join the Single Market as I understand it.
If we are going to rejoin, then we need to go in balls-deep. Get the full-fat, no opt-outs, wrap ourselves in that rag of a flag version of EU membership, with Schengen, Euro, the works.
If we are going to be subservient to the unelected capitalist hegemony in Brussels let's do it in style.
The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.
Stop talking the UK down.
It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
TSE still bitter, ten years on...
Leave 52%
Remain 48%
[runs and hides!]
That doesn't really help.
Makes me feel better....
The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.
All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
It's entirely the wrong attitude to lock something in for the long-term against the wishes of British electorate.
That's the principle for which many of us voted Leave in the first place.
Why were you lot kicking back against the Harold Wilson Referendum in '75 for the next 40 years against the wishes of the UK electorate?
Anyway it's been ten years now. If it is a once in a generation vote, by my watch we can have another in 2032.
Not sure it will many votes, but I do think we are in general overly keen on banning things.
Let's ban fewer things and stick to banning a small number of really bad things. Like, say, banning cigarettes generationally.
Then let's suck it up and ban smoking for everyone. I don't feel comfortable about the idea of banning a legal product for a certain cohort. It seems absurd to ban a 70 year old from doing something an 80 year old cam do perfectly legally
Not sure it will many votes, but I do think we are in general overly keen on banning things.
Let's ban fewer things and stick to banning a small number of really bad things. Like, say, banning cigarettes generationally.
Then let's suck it up and ban smoking for everyone. I don't feel comfortable about the idea of banning a legal product for a certain cohort. It seems absurd to ban a 70 year old from doing something an 80 year old cam do perfectly legally
According to the Financial Times, citing two officials with knowledge on the matter, Pakistan has proposed that U.S.-Iran talks take place in the capital of Islamabad as early as this week. Pakistan's principal decision-maker, Army Chief Asim Munir, spoke with U.S. President Donald J. Trump on the matter yesterday while Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif held talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier today.
To accomplish what? Even in the vanishingly unlikely event serious peace proposals were put forward neither the new Iranian government nor Donald Trump would be likely to stick to any agreement made. They’re both criminals and they both think keeping your word is something only losers and wimps do.
Unfortunately this war is going to go on until one side or the other is properly beaten, and everybody will suffer for it.
The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.
So the UK govt wins a referendum. Negotiates. What then ? Put the deal to the public ? What if the EU tell us to go swivel.
One step at a time.
A government would have to win a referendum first. 54% is not much of a lead to be going into a referendum campaign with.
Any government seriously considering a rejoin referendum would surely have to speak to the EU first, to have any sort of idea about what a rejoin referendum would actually mean.
Get elected on the promise of exploring it, then if the EU are interested, deliver the referendum, but don't for the love of god start from the referendum first.
Sadiq Khan is proposing putting seeking to rejoin the EU in the next Labour manifesto. Then Labour have a mandate to seek to rejoin without a referendum. Sounds good to me. If LibDems do the same, then even a minority Labour government with LD support will have a mandate.
Whether you have a technical mandate or not such a strategy would be toxic to the British political system
Denmark votes tomorrow and the last polls are all suggesting the "Red" bloc of parties are still narrowly ahead of the "blue" parties.
The current coalition of the Social Democrats, Liberals and Moderates is going to take a beating dropping from 50% to 35%. The parties set to gain seats are the Socialist People's Party (known as the Green Left), Liberal Alliance and the Danish People's Party but the split of Red to Blue parties looks close to last time when it was 49-42 to the Red Bloc. Voxmeter has 49-43, Megafon 49-44 and only Epinion, which traditionally is the strongest poll for the Blue bloc, has the Red bloc leading 47.5-46.
The question is whether Mette Frederiksen can assemble a new Government coalition of centre-left parties or whether a new centre-right administration couled be formed including the Moderates and led by the Liberal Alliance. The other question is whether Frederiksen's head will be the price for the deal on the centre-left exacted by Pia Olsen Dyhr.
I downloaded (entirely legitimately ofc) an HD copy of 'Borgen' the other week. Feels like a fitting time for a re-watch.
Not sure it will many votes, but I do think we are in general overly keen on banning things.
Let's ban fewer things and stick to banning a small number of really bad things. Like, say, banning cigarettes generationally.
Personally i think if people want to ban cigarettes they should just do it outright. Never touched the horrid stuff myself. I know why they don't ban it outright, but it feels like a morally weird argument to get rid of it because it is so bad, but slowly.
When it happens re-join day will be designated a national holiday. All across the land bonfires and fireworks will be seen - the culmination of weeks of preparation during which the citizenry will be continually accosted by groups of urchins asking a euro for the Nigel.
You've just reminded me - weren't we supposed to get some sort of Brexit themepark? And/or 'Brexit Day'? I have a vague memory of Mogg being involved. We're just three months or so away from the vote anniversary - we better get something.
According to the Financial Times, citing two officials with knowledge on the matter, Pakistan has proposed that U.S.-Iran talks take place in the capital of Islamabad as early as this week. Pakistan's principal decision-maker, Army Chief Asim Munir, spoke with U.S. President Donald J. Trump on the matter yesterday while Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif held talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier today.
To accomplish what? Even in the vanishingly unlikely event serious peace proposals were put forward neither the new Iranian government nor Donald Trump would be likely to stick to any agreement made. They’re both criminals and they both think keeping your word is something only losers and wimps do.
Unfortunately this war is going to go on until one side or the other is properly beaten, and everybody will suffer for it.
Pretty traditional, historically speaking, for many agreements to last only so long as one side or the other thought they could get away with ignoring it. But it would be nice to think something useful could be achieved.
When it happens re-join day will be designated a national holiday. All across the land bonfires and fireworks will be seen - the culmination of weeks of preparation during which the citizenry will be continually accosted by groups of urchins asking a euro for the Nigel.
You've just reminded me - weren't we supposed to get some sort of Brexit themepark? And/or 'Brexit Day'? I have a vague memory of Mogg being involved. We're just three months or so away from the vote anniversary - we better get something.
When it happens re-join day will be designated a national holiday. All across the land bonfires and fireworks will be seen - the culmination of weeks of preparation during which the citizenry will be continually accosted by groups of urchins asking a euro for the Nigel.
You've just reminded me - weren't we supposed to get some sort of Brexit themepark? And/or 'Brexit Day'? I have a vague memory of Mogg being involved. We're just three months or so away from the vote anniversary - we better get something.
When it happens re-join day will be designated a national holiday. All across the land bonfires and fireworks will be seen - the culmination of weeks of preparation during which the citizenry will be continually accosted by groups of urchins asking a euro for the Nigel.
You've just reminded me - weren't we supposed to get some sort of Brexit themepark? And/or 'Brexit Day'? I have a vague memory of Mogg being involved. We're just three months or so away from the vote anniversary - we better get something.
The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.
So the UK govt wins a referendum. Negotiates. What then ? Put the deal to the public ? What if the EU tell us to go swivel.
One step at a time.
A government would have to win a referendum first. 54% is not much of a lead to be going into a referendum campaign with.
Any government seriously considering a rejoin referendum would surely have to speak to the EU first, to have any sort of idea about what a rejoin referendum would actually mean.
Get elected on the promise of exploring it, then if the EU are interested, deliver the referendum, but don't for the love of god start from the referendum first.
Sadiq Khan is proposing putting seeking to rejoin the EU in the next Labour manifesto. Then Labour have a mandate to seek to rejoin without a referendum. Sounds good to me. If LibDems do the same, then even a minority Labour government with LD support will have a mandate.
Whether you have a technical mandate or not such a strategy would be toxic to the British political system
Not really, our system is based on representative parliamentary democracy not direct democracy and referendum. We were still in the EU for years after the 2016 EU referendum Leave vote, it changed nothing until a big majority of elected MPs also were willing to vote for Brexit which only happened after the 2019 general election
When it happens re-join day will be designated a national holiday. All across the land bonfires and fireworks will be seen - the culmination of weeks of preparation during which the citizenry will be continually accosted by groups of urchins asking a euro for the Nigel.
You've just reminded me - weren't we supposed to get some sort of Brexit themepark? And/or 'Brexit Day'? I have a vague memory of Mogg being involved. We're just three months or so away from the vote anniversary - we better get something.
Dan Hannan Day was last June. Still, I think it was meant to be an annual celebration, if we make it as far as this June.
Not sure it will many votes, but I do think we are in general overly keen on banning things.
Let's ban fewer things and stick to banning a small number of really bad things. Like, say, banning cigarettes generationally.
Then let's suck it up and ban smoking for everyone. I don't feel comfortable about the idea of banning a legal product for a certain cohort. It seems absurd to ban a 70 year old from doing something an 80 year old cam do perfectly legally
Bit hard to quit.
Take up vaping.
I naturally fall on the side of not banning things. Likewise drugs currently banned.
But if you're going to ban, then it should be banned for everyone. Not some ludicrous position where in 30 years a 45 year old can smoke legally, while his 44 year old wife would be breaking the law to join him.
I understand that 'banning stuff for people who can't yet vote' is a political vote winner. But it's still a crap policy.
When it happens re-join day will be designated a national holiday. All across the land bonfires and fireworks will be seen - the culmination of weeks of preparation during which the citizenry will be continually accosted by groups of urchins asking a euro for the Nigel.
You've just reminded me - weren't we supposed to get some sort of Brexit themepark? And/or 'Brexit Day'? I have a vague memory of Mogg being involved. We're just three months or so away from the vote anniversary - we better get something.
Your brexit 50p will have to do.
A collectors item, now worth 50p.
Hey, your side got your own content-free slogan-heavy 50p too:
I think the engineers that worked on this should form a 12-month national government, do all the necessary reforms like abolishing the triple lock and stamp duty, and then retire on a fat pension.
When it happens re-join day will be designated a national holiday. All across the land bonfires and fireworks will be seen - the culmination of weeks of preparation during which the citizenry will be continually accosted by groups of urchins asking a euro for the Nigel.
You've just reminded me - weren't we supposed to get some sort of Brexit themepark? And/or 'Brexit Day'? I have a vague memory of Mogg being involved. We're just three months or so away from the vote anniversary - we better get something.
Your brexit 50p will have to do.
A collectors item, now worth 50p.
At the very least I'd have hoped it was 52p or 48p. Then it would all seem worthwhile. In some way.
When it happens re-join day will be designated a national holiday. All across the land bonfires and fireworks will be seen - the culmination of weeks of preparation during which the citizenry will be continually accosted by groups of urchins asking a euro for the Nigel.
You've just reminded me - weren't we supposed to get some sort of Brexit themepark? And/or 'Brexit Day'? I have a vague memory of Mogg being involved. We're just three months or so away from the vote anniversary - we better get something.
Your brexit 50p will have to do.
A collectors item, now worth 50p.
At the very least I'd have hoped it was 52p or 48p. Then it would all seem worthwhile. In some way.
If they'd minted two coins, 52p and 48p, which could be locked together to make a pound coin...
Fascinating talk from an oncologist this afternoon. I had no idea that only 70% of lung cancer cases are down to smoking. Would have said much higher. Apparently there is a big move to stop victim blaming in king cancer sufferers as it’s a bit harsh on the 30% who have never smoked.
When it happens re-join day will be designated a national holiday. All across the land bonfires and fireworks will be seen - the culmination of weeks of preparation during which the citizenry will be continually accosted by groups of urchins asking a euro for the Nigel.
You've just reminded me - weren't we supposed to get some sort of Brexit themepark? And/or 'Brexit Day'? I have a vague memory of Mogg being involved. We're just three months or so away from the vote anniversary - we better get something.
Your brexit 50p will have to do.
A collectors item, now worth 50p.
At the very least I'd have hoped it was 52p or 48p. Then it would all seem worthwhile. In some way.
If they'd minted two coins, 52p and 48p, which could be locked together to make a pound coin...
If they'd locked together to amount to 50p - it would feel closer to reality.
The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.
So the UK govt wins a referendum. Negotiates. What then ? Put the deal to the public ? What if the EU tell us to go swivel.
One step at a time.
A government would have to win a referendum first. 54% is not much of a lead to be going into a referendum campaign with.
Any government seriously considering a rejoin referendum would surely have to speak to the EU first, to have any sort of idea about what a rejoin referendum would actually mean.
Get elected on the promise of exploring it, then if the EU are interested, deliver the referendum, but don't for the love of god start from the referendum first.
Sadiq Khan is proposing putting seeking to rejoin the EU in the next Labour manifesto. Then Labour have a mandate to seek to rejoin without a referendum. Sounds good to me. If LibDems do the same, then even a minority Labour government with LD support will have a mandate.
Whether you have a technical mandate or not such a strategy would be toxic to the British political system
Not really, our system is based on representative parliamentary democracy not direct democracy and referendum. We were still in the EU for years after the 2016 EU referendum Leave vote, it changed nothing until a big majority of elected MPs also were willing to vote for Brexit which only happened after the 2019 general election
On that basis, a party couldput in its manifesto a commitment to rejoin the EU without a referendum and if that party won a majority in a General Election, it could enact that policy and take us back into the European Union.
At the following election, another party, in opposition, could have as a manifesto commitment a pledge to leave the EU without a referendum and if that party won a majority at the following election, presumably we would leave.
To your party's credit and unlike others, the Conservatives have accepted the results of some referenda - they have not for example pledged to abolish the Scottish Parliament, the Senedd or the London Mayoralty/Greater London Assembly despite having been opposed to them all and campaigned for a NO vote in the referenda granted by the incoming Blair Government in 1997.
Fascinating talk from an oncologist this afternoon. I had no idea that only 70% of lung cancer cases are down to smoking. Would have said much higher. Apparently there is a big move to stop victim blaming in king cancer sufferers as it’s a bit harsh on the 30% who have never smoked.
A non-smoker in Hong Kong has roughly the same lifetime lung cancer risk as a smoker in the UK. Due to Chinese factory smog floating over...
Not sure it will many votes, but I do think we are in general overly keen on banning things.
Let's ban fewer things and stick to banning a small number of really bad things. Like, say, banning cigarettes generationally.
Then let's suck it up and ban smoking for everyone. I don't feel comfortable about the idea of banning a legal product for a certain cohort. It seems absurd to ban a 70 year old from doing something an 80 year old cam do perfectly legally
Bit hard to quit.
Take up vaping.
I naturally fall on the side of not banning things. Likewise drugs currently banned.
But if you're going to ban, then it should be banned for everyone. Not some ludicrous position where in 30 years a 45 year old can smoke legally, while his 44 year old wife would be breaking the law to join him.
I understand that 'banning stuff for people who can't yet vote' is a political vote winner. But it's still a crap policy.
When it happens re-join day will be designated a national holiday. All across the land bonfires and fireworks will be seen - the culmination of weeks of preparation during which the citizenry will be continually accosted by groups of urchins asking a euro for the Nigel.
You've just reminded me - weren't we supposed to get some sort of Brexit themepark? And/or 'Brexit Day'? I have a vague memory of Mogg being involved. We're just three months or so away from the vote anniversary - we better get something.
Your brexit 50p will have to do.
A collectors item, now worth 50p.
At the very least I'd have hoped it was 52p or 48p. Then it would all seem worthwhile. In some way.
If they'd minted two coins, 52p and 48p, which could be locked together to make a pound coin...
More realistic to have two coins that looked like they ought to combine, but it's impossible to make them do so.
Not sure it will many votes, but I do think we are in general overly keen on banning things.
Let's ban fewer things and stick to banning a small number of really bad things. Like, say, banning cigarettes generationally.
Then let's suck it up and ban smoking for everyone. I don't feel comfortable about the idea of banning a legal product for a certain cohort. It seems absurd to ban a 70 year old from doing something an 80 year old cam do perfectly legally
Bit hard to quit.
Take up vaping.
I naturally fall on the side of not banning things. Likewise drugs currently banned.
But if you're going to ban, then it should be banned for everyone. Not some ludicrous position where in 30 years a 45 year old can smoke legally, while his 44 year old wife would be breaking the law to join him.
I understand that 'banning stuff for people who can't yet vote' is a political vote winner. But it's still a crap policy.
Another pointless argument Farage is getting into.
I have to say banning smoking in restaurants was one of the best pieces of legislation ever - it was wonderful to be able to appreciate the small of food without the background of used tobacco.
Not sure it will many votes, but I do think we are in general overly keen on banning things.
Let's ban fewer things and stick to banning a small number of really bad things. Like, say, banning cigarettes generationally.
Then let's suck it up and ban smoking for everyone. I don't feel comfortable about the idea of banning a legal product for a certain cohort. It seems absurd to ban a 70 year old from doing something an 80 year old cam do perfectly legally
Bit hard to quit.
Take up vaping.
I naturally fall on the side of not banning things. Likewise drugs currently banned.
But if you're going to ban, then it should be banned for everyone. Not some ludicrous position where in 30 years a 45 year old can smoke legally, while his 44 year old wife would be breaking the law to join him.
I understand that 'banning stuff for people who can't yet vote' is a political vote winner. But it's still a crap policy.
It’s not risk free but is widely seen as better than cigarettes. One issue is vaping synthetic canabinoids (think ‘spice’) which are horrendously variable in content and some may be lethal. And then heating chemicals at relatively low temps can still produce reaction products. We have a PhD student starting later this year looking at just this.
Another pointless argument Farage is getting into.
I have to say banning smoking in restaurants was one of the best pieces of legislation ever - it was wonderful to be able to appreciate the small of food without the background of used tobacco.
I assume it is still legal, but people being less willing to smoke in cars has been a godsend for those of us who sat in the backseat and repeatedly got a face full of ash when the driver tried (poorly) to flick it out the window.
Another pointless argument Farage is getting into.
I have to say banning smoking in restaurants was one of the best pieces of legislation ever - it was wonderful to be able to appreciate the small of food without the background of used tobacco.
The smoking ban is so embedded in our culture that reintroducing smoking to the restaurant or pub dining room will put far more people off dining out than it will attract. Farage will get to dine alone...
If your irony meters exploded at around 6.30 this evening it's my fault.
I had to tell a colleague that they needed to stop their brashness, stay humble and be modest (we're in the middle of a dispute with an external party, and I fear their brashness will go down badly with the mediators.)
When it happens re-join day will be designated a national holiday. All across the land bonfires and fireworks will be seen - the culmination of weeks of preparation during which the citizenry will be continually accosted by groups of urchins asking a euro for the Nigel.
You've just reminded me - weren't we supposed to get some sort of Brexit themepark? And/or 'Brexit Day'? I have a vague memory of Mogg being involved. We're just three months or so away from the vote anniversary - we better get something.
We have several already. They’re called Clacton, Great Yarmouth, Skegness and Blackpool.
If your irony meters exploded at around 6.30 this evening it's my fault.
I had to tell a colleague that they needed to stop their brashness, stay humble and be modest (we're in the middle of a dispute with an external party, and I fear their brashness will go down badly with the mediators.)
The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.
So the UK govt wins a referendum. Negotiates. What then ? Put the deal to the public ? What if the EU tell us to go swivel.
One step at a time.
A government would have to win a referendum first. 54% is not much of a lead to be going into a referendum campaign with.
Any government seriously considering a rejoin referendum would surely have to speak to the EU first, to have any sort of idea about what a rejoin referendum would actually mean.
Get elected on the promise of exploring it, then if the EU are interested, deliver the referendum, but don't for the love of god start from the referendum first.
Sadiq Khan is proposing putting seeking to rejoin the EU in the next Labour manifesto. Then Labour have a mandate to seek to rejoin without a referendum. Sounds good to me. If LibDems do the same, then even a minority Labour government with LD support will have a mandate.
Whether you have a technical mandate or not such a strategy would be toxic to the British political system
Not really, our system is based on representative parliamentary democracy not direct democracy and referendum. We were still in the EU for years after the 2016 EU referendum Leave vote, it changed nothing until a big majority of elected MPs also were willing to vote for Brexit which only happened after the 2019 general election
On that basis, a party couldput in its manifesto a commitment to rejoin the EU without a referendum and if that party won a majority in a General Election, it could enact that policy and take us back into the European Union.
At the following election, another party, in opposition, could have as a manifesto commitment a pledge to leave the EU without a referendum and if that party won a majority at the following election, presumably we would leave.
To your party's credit and unlike others, the Conservatives have accepted the results of some referenda - they have not for example pledged to abolish the Scottish Parliament, the Senedd or the London Mayoralty/Greater London Assembly despite having been opposed to them all and campaigned for a NO vote in the referenda granted by the incoming Blair Government in 1997.
Yes they both could, that is parliamentary democracy. Referenda have no legal or constitutional force in the UK even if sometimes parties choose to accept the results
If your irony meters exploded at around 6.30 this evening it's my fault.
I had to tell a colleague that they needed to stop their brashness, stay humble and be modest (we're in the middle of a dispute with an external party, and I fear their brashness will go down badly with the mediators.)
They only have to fake it. Have them repeat after you: "Butter wouldn't fucking melt."
If your irony meters exploded at around 6.30 this evening it's my fault.
I had to tell a colleague that they needed to stop their brashness, stay humble and be modest (we're in the middle of a dispute with an external party, and I fear their brashness will go down badly with the mediators.)
I am glad to see you caught the punctuation fail…
Any typos and punctuation fails are solely down to auto-correct.
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Circa 1995 would have coincided with my 18% Bradford and Bingley mortgage rate...
18% of what, though?
I have a friend who bought a house in Cambridge for 550k last year. Was sold in 1995 for 35k. Renovated, but no loft conversion or floor space extension.
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Buying a house is so 1990s, now you just have to hope to inherit one in your 60s! Better that than encourage housebuilding.
In the late 1980s the narrative of negative equity was all the rage. My flat in Peterborough went on the market at £62,000. It fell through and I sold it for £43K. That fell through and the final selling price was £29,000. Fortunately in 1983 I had paid 25 grand for it.
The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.
So the UK govt wins a referendum. Negotiates. What then ? Put the deal to the public ? What if the EU tell us to go swivel.
One step at a time.
A government would have to win a referendum first. 54% is not much of a lead to be going into a referendum campaign with.
Any government seriously considering a rejoin referendum would surely have to speak to the EU first, to have any sort of idea about what a rejoin referendum would actually mean.
Get elected on the promise of exploring it, then if the EU are interested, deliver the referendum, but don't for the love of god start from the referendum first.
Sadiq Khan is proposing putting seeking to rejoin the EU in the next Labour manifesto. Then Labour have a mandate to seek to rejoin without a referendum. Sounds good to me. If LibDems do the same, then even a minority Labour government with LD support will have a mandate.
Whether you have a technical mandate or not such a strategy would be toxic to the British political system
Not really, our system is based on representative parliamentary democracy not direct democracy and referendum. We were still in the EU for years after the 2016 EU referendum Leave vote, it changed nothing until a big majority of elected MPs also were willing to vote for Brexit which only happened after the 2019 general election
On that basis, a party couldput in its manifesto a commitment to rejoin the EU without a referendum and if that party won a majority in a General Election, it could enact that policy and take us back into the European Union.
At the following election, another party, in opposition, could have as a manifesto commitment a pledge to leave the EU without a referendum and if that party won a majority at the following election, presumably we would leave.
To your party's credit and unlike others, the Conservatives have accepted the results of some referenda - they have not for example pledged to abolish the Scottish Parliament, the Senedd or the London Mayoralty/Greater London Assembly despite having been opposed to them all and campaigned for a NO vote in the referenda granted by the incoming Blair Government in 1997.
Yes they both could, that is parliamentary democracy. Referenda have no legal or constitutional force in the UK even if sometimes parties choose to accept the results
IIRC the good old days of the AV debate, the enacting legislation included provisions that an Order must be made to give the referendum effect, if it had succeeded. Presumably someone could have tried to stymie that though yet more legislation before an Order was made, but that would have been been trickier to manage.
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Circa 1995 would have coincided with my 18% Bradford and Bingley mortgage rate...
18% of what, though?
I have a friend who bought a house in Cambridge for 550k last year. Was sold in 1995 for 35k. Renovated, but no loft conversion or floor space extension.
I bought that house in Whitchurch in Cardiff as a doer upper in 1991 for £62,000. Houses in that road were going for around £90K. I sold it in 2000 for £135K. However when the mortgage rate starts at a little over 10% in 1991 hitting the dizzy heights of 18% a few years later was no joke.
Not sure it will many votes, but I do think we are in general overly keen on banning things.
Let's ban fewer things and stick to banning a small number of really bad things. Like, say, banning cigarettes generationally.
Then let's suck it up and ban smoking for everyone. I don't feel comfortable about the idea of banning a legal product for a certain cohort. It seems absurd to ban a 70 year old from doing something an 80 year old cam do perfectly legally
Bit hard to quit.
Take up vaping.
I naturally fall on the side of not banning things. Likewise drugs currently banned.
But if you're going to ban, then it should be banned for everyone. Not some ludicrous position where in 30 years a 45 year old can smoke legally, while his 44 year old wife would be breaking the law to join him.
I understand that 'banning stuff for people who can't yet vote' is a political vote winner. But it's still a crap policy.
Problem with vaping, it clearly fails as a smoking cessation tool. In principle we should be seeing smoking prevalence plummet as people switch to vaping from cigarettes. Instead prevalence which had been gradually reducing stopped doing so at the point of introduction of vaping.
I do think vaping is useful for individuals to get off cigarettes. This suggests in turn that actually more people are taking up smoking than before as others wean themselves off it.
It's possible that participants are smoking less with a hybrid of vaping and smoking, although I haven't seen any data for this
"Australia and the European Union look set to finally sign off on a long-awaited free trade pact after almost a decade of negotiations, which is expected to protect Australia's right to name sparkling wine "prosecco".
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese are expected to green-light the deal in Canberra on Tuesday."
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Circa 1995 would have coincided with my 18% Bradford and Bingley mortgage rate...
18% of what, though?
I have a friend who bought a house in Cambridge for 550k last year. Was sold in 1995 for 35k. Renovated, but no loft conversion or floor space extension.
I bought that house in Whitchurch in Cardiff as a doer upper in 1991 for £62,000. Houses in that road were going for around £90K. I sold it in 2000 for £135K. However when the mortgage rate starts at a little over 10% in 1991 hitting the dizzy heights of 18% a few years later was no joke.
The housing market was pretty brutal in the early nineties. Several friends were stuck in negative equity for years, unable to sell to move. Then there was the problem of large deposits as banks and building societies were wary of loaning more than 75% of value. Add in eye watering interest rates and it is fairly easy to see why prices bottomed out mid nineties.
That was a good time to buy. I bought my second house, a 3 bed semi in a fashionable area, in 1996 for £62 000 and sold in 2001 for more than twice that.
I think that the next year or two looks as if it might be a time to buy. Prices are down in real terms from their peak, and the new rental rules and taxes are making a lot of BTL landlords sell up.
I may not be up to date but has Congress even once debated this war?
Tens of billions of tax $ being spent on the whims of one man, let alone the human cost.
And there is silence.
Shining city on the hill my arse.
I think some Democrats have introduced resolutions and the Republicans have voted them down. So Congress has had its say, but seems to be stuck on party lines at the moment.
It does say least mean they Congressional Republicans share responsibility for the debacle with Trump.
The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.
So the UK govt wins a referendum. Negotiates. What then ? Put the deal to the public ? What if the EU tell us to go swivel.
One step at a time.
A government would have to win a referendum first. 54% is not much of a lead to be going into a referendum campaign with.
Any government seriously considering a rejoin referendum would surely have to speak to the EU first, to have any sort of idea about what a rejoin referendum would actually mean.
Get elected on the promise of exploring it, then if the EU are interested, deliver the referendum, but don't for the love of god start from the referendum first.
Sadiq Khan is proposing putting seeking to rejoin the EU in the next Labour manifesto. Then Labour have a mandate to seek to rejoin without a referendum. Sounds good to me. If LibDems do the same, then even a minority Labour government with LD support will have a mandate.
Whether you have a technical mandate or not such a strategy would be toxic to the British political system
Not really, our system is based on representative parliamentary democracy not direct democracy and referendum. We were still in the EU for years after the 2016 EU referendum Leave vote, it changed nothing until a big majority of elected MPs also were willing to vote for Brexit which only happened after the 2019 general election
On that basis, a party couldput in its manifesto a commitment to rejoin the EU without a referendum and if that party won a majority in a General Election, it could enact that policy and take us back into the European Union.
At the following election, another party, in opposition, could have as a manifesto commitment a pledge to leave the EU without a referendum and if that party won a majority at the following election, presumably we would leave.
To your party's credit and unlike others, the Conservatives have accepted the results of some referenda - they have not for example pledged to abolish the Scottish Parliament, the Senedd or the London Mayoralty/Greater London Assembly despite having been opposed to them all and campaigned for a NO vote in the referenda granted by the incoming Blair Government in 1997.
Yes they both could, that is parliamentary democracy. Referenda have no legal or constitutional force in the UK even if sometimes parties choose to accept the results
IIRC the good old days of the AV debate, the enacting legislation included provisions that an Order must be made to give the referendum effect, if it had succeeded. Presumably someone could have tried to stymie that though yet more legislation before an Order was made, but that would have been been trickier to manage.
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Circa 1995 would have coincided with my 18% Bradford and Bingley mortgage rate...
18% of what, though?
I have a friend who bought a house in Cambridge for 550k last year. Was sold in 1995 for 35k. Renovated, but no loft conversion or floor space extension.
I bought that house in Whitchurch in Cardiff as a doer upper in 1991 for £62,000. Houses in that road were going for around £90K. I sold it in 2000 for £135K. However when the mortgage rate starts at a little over 10% in 1991 hitting the dizzy heights of 18% a few years later was no joke.
Are you sure about that ?
Interest rates peaked in October 1989 and were steadily falling throughout 1991 and 1992 (bar the one day wonder of Black Wednesday) and haven't been above 10% since September 1991:
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
1989 to 2001 was the really rosy time imo.
Not sure about your date range, although the 1992 to 1997 Tory Government produced some comedy gold.
Oh to have been in a position to buy a house in 1995...
Sadly I was twelve.
Buying a house is so 1990s, now you just have to hope to inherit one in your 60s! Better that than encourage housebuilding.
In the late 1980s the narrative of negative equity was all the rage. My flat in Peterborough went on the market at £62,000. It fell through and I sold it for £43K. That fell through and the final selling price was £29,000. Fortunately in 1983 I had paid 25 grand for it.
And yet, the Tories had a reputation for fiscal prudence. This was yet another example of their fiscal ineptitude.
Not sure it will many votes, but I do think we are in general overly keen on banning things.
Let's ban fewer things and stick to banning a small number of really bad things. Like, say, banning cigarettes generationally.
Then let's suck it up and ban smoking for everyone. I don't feel comfortable about the idea of banning a legal product for a certain cohort. It seems absurd to ban a 70 year old from doing something an 80 year old cam do perfectly legally
Bit hard to quit.
Take up vaping.
I naturally fall on the side of not banning things. Likewise drugs currently banned.
But if you're going to ban, then it should be banned for everyone. Not some ludicrous position where in 30 years a 45 year old can smoke legally, while his 44 year old wife would be breaking the law to join him.
I understand that 'banning stuff for people who can't yet vote' is a political vote winner. But it's still a crap policy.
Problem with vaping, it clearly fails as a smoking cessation tool. In principle we should be seeing smoking prevalence plummet as people switch to vaping from cigarettes. Instead prevalence which had been gradually reducing stopped doing so at the point of introduction of vaping.
I do think vaping is useful for individuals to get off cigarettes. This suggests in turn that actually more people are taking up smoking than before as others wean themselves off it.
It's possible that participants are smoking less with a hybrid of vaping and smoking, although I haven't seen any data for this
There was a lovely cameo of this in Gavin and Stacey. With her right hand, Nessa sucked on a vape. She withdrew that and, with her left hand, put a fag in her mouth. Has to be seen, but very funny.
My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.
Nostalgia for an imaginary period before Brexit.
The 2006-2016 period wasn't the best in the UK - bank crashes, high unemployment, uncontrolled immigration and then public spending restrictions.
You'd have to go back to between 1995 and 2005 for a period when things seemed good and the future rosy.
The Blair Years...
There was never a better time to be PM than what Blair had.
And what did he achieve during it ?
48 quarters of successive growth
You're putting the cart before the horse.
Blair didn't achieve 48 quarters of growth.
The 48 quarters of growth was why it was such a good time to be PM.
The issue being that many of the problems that the country has suffered since arose in those 48 quarters.
Including 45 successive quarters of trade deficit, 45 successive quarters of falling manufacturing employment and such like for rising house prices and increasing personal debt.
Comments
The current coalition of the Social Democrats, Liberals and Moderates is going to take a beating dropping from 50% to 35%. The parties set to gain seats are the Socialist People's Party (known as the Green Left), Liberal Alliance and the Danish People's Party but the split of Red to Blue parties looks close to last time when it was 49-42 to the Red Bloc. Voxmeter has 49-43, Megafon 49-44 and only Epinion, which traditionally is the strongest poll for the Blue bloc, has the Red bloc leading 47.5-46.
The question is whether Mette Frederiksen can assemble a new Government coalition of centre-left parties or whether a new centre-right administration couled be formed including the Moderates and led by the Liberal Alliance. The other question is whether Frederiksen's head will be the price for the deal on the centre-left exacted by Pia Olsen Dyhr.
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
According to the Financial Times, citing two officials with knowledge on the matter, Pakistan has proposed that U.S.-Iran talks take place in the capital of Islamabad as early as this week. Pakistan's principal decision-maker, Army Chief Asim Munir, spoke with U.S. President Donald J. Trump on the matter yesterday while Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif held talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier today.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2036167629254135978
Entirely the wrong attitude to oppose their having another say in the matter if they so choose
If we are going to be subservient to the unelected capitalist hegemony in Brussels let's do it in style.
And what did he achieve during it ?
Trump: you have 48 hours to comply
Iran: nobody cares
Trump: you have a week
https://x.com/scottmelker/status/2036129318456144112?s=20
It's not even as though Trump is likely to have them shot.
Miller: What President Trump is doing is a national miracle that will be studied not only for generations but for centuries to come.
Trump: Kash, see if you can top that.
Patel: Mr. President, thank you for delivering the safest country on God's green Earth
https://x.com/Acyn/status/2036138774275691007
Still, Miller is probably right about Trump being a case study for the generations.
Unfortunately this war is going to go on until one side or the other is properly beaten, and everybody will suffer for it.
I naturally fall on the side of not banning things. Likewise drugs currently banned.
But if you're going to ban, then it should be banned for everyone. Not some ludicrous position where in 30 years a 45 year old can smoke legally, while his 44 year old wife would be breaking the law to join him.
I understand that 'banning stuff for people who can't yet vote' is a political vote winner. But it's still a crap policy.
https://www.coinchecker.co.uk/50p-coins/2020-celebrating-british-diversity-50p/
I think the engineers that worked on this should form a 12-month national government, do all the necessary reforms like abolishing the triple lock and stamp duty, and then retire on a fat pension.
At the following election, another party, in opposition, could have as a manifesto commitment a pledge to leave the EU without a referendum and if that party won a majority at the following election, presumably we would leave.
To your party's credit and unlike others, the Conservatives have accepted the results of some referenda - they have not for example pledged to abolish the Scottish Parliament, the Senedd or the London Mayoralty/Greater London Assembly despite having been opposed to them all and campaigned for a NO vote in the referenda granted by the incoming Blair Government in 1997.
https://www.nhs.uk/better-health/quit-smoking/ready-to-quit-smoking/vaping-to-quit-smoking/vaping-myths-and-the-facts/
Hope it doesn't look silly in twenty years...
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/introduction-of-vaping-products-duty-from-1-october-2026/introduction-of-vaping-products-duty-from-1-october-2026
Tonight it's 4.86% - I am once more in awe of the brilliance of Rachel Reeves as I'm sure we all are.
Nigel Farage gets the welcome he deserves in Suffolk having to be hurried away from the crowd calling him a 'fascist freakshow'.
https://bsky.app/profile/bladeofthes.bsky.social/post/3mhqnkyafjk26
We banned freak shows years ago and rightly so.
*FCC BANS IMPORTS OF ALL FOREIGN-MADE CONSUMER-GRADE ROUTERS
https://bsky.app/profile/peark.es/post/3mhqxkgtmv22e
Sadly I was twelve.
I had to tell a colleague that they needed to stop their brashness, stay humble and be modest (we're in the middle of a dispute with an external party, and I fear their brashness will go down badly with the mediators.)
At least we had The Spice Girls.
That's my story and I am sticking to it.
I have a friend who bought a house in Cambridge for 550k last year. Was sold in 1995 for 35k. Renovated, but no loft conversion or floor space extension.
The good thing about those years was the fall of communism in Europe and then the crushing of Iraq over Kuwait.
Tens of billions of tax $ being spent on the whims of one man, let alone the human cost.
And there is silence.
Shining city on the hill my arse.
@shashj
·
1h
The war aim is now re-opening a strait that would not have been closed were it not for the war itself.
https://x.com/shashj/status/2036175213440774284
I do think vaping is useful for individuals to get off cigarettes. This suggests in turn that actually more people are taking up smoking than before as others wean themselves off it.
It's possible that participants are smoking less with a hybrid of vaping and smoking, although I haven't seen any data for this
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese are expected to green-light the deal in Canberra on Tuesday."
Exemptions! Who knew the EU could make new ones?
(Yes I know. After the power to establish post offices apparently).
That was a good time to buy. I bought my second house, a 3 bed semi in a fashionable area, in 1996 for £62 000 and sold in 2001 for more than twice that.
I think that the next year or two looks as if it might be a time to buy. Prices are down in real terms from their peak, and the new rental rules and taxes are making a lot of BTL landlords sell up.
It does say least mean they Congressional Republicans share responsibility for the debacle with Trump.
Now: "I will share the oil through the Straits with whoever is the ayatollah"
Is it any wonder the people of Iran have not risen up.
Yes 2 AV = 32%
Interest rates peaked in October 1989 and were steadily falling throughout 1991 and 1992 (bar the one day wonder of Black Wednesday) and haven't been above 10% since September 1991:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.asp
https://bsky.app/profile/topangarainbows.bsky.social/post/3mhqrtqrkrc23
Corgis were bred as long distance herers to get livestock to market.
Life in the bubble...
I guess Americans no longer need to be online.
Blair didn't achieve 48 quarters of growth.
The 48 quarters of growth was why it was such a good time to be PM.
The issue being that many of the problems that the country has suffered since arose in those 48 quarters.
Including 45 successive quarters of trade deficit, 45 successive quarters of falling manufacturing employment and such like for rising house prices and increasing personal debt.