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Rachel Reeves & Sir Sadiq Khan speak for the nation – politicalbetting.com

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  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,692
    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    We still have all that, which indicates the problem is nor whether we are in our out of the EU, but the idiots, both political and civil service, that enjoy micromanaging the rest of us.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,404
    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2036126606440227217

    Trump: "They call it a war, we call it a military operation."
  • eekeek Posts: 32,997

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2036126606440227217

    Trump: "They call it a war, we call it a military operation."

    A war crime by any other name is still a crime
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,647
    DougSeal said:

    The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.

    Yes, equivalent opposite of last time. HMG mandated to seek membership on the best achievable terms. Although not quite equivalent to the Brexit process. We could have left with no deal. We can't join with no deal. There's no unilateral option.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,622

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/2036126606440227217

    Trump: "They call it a war, we call it a military operation."

    Not a Special Military Operation?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,218
    edited 6:03PM
    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,689
    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.
    Brexit harmed the EU economy too, not just the UK one. Trade barriers do that.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,211
    DougSeal said:

    The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.

    So the UK govt wins a referendum. Negotiates. What then ? Put the deal to the public ? What if the EU tell us to go swivel.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,994
    Starry said:

    Rachel Reeves and Sadiq Khan do NOT speak for me.
    If I .have something to say I will say it myself. I wouldn't trust either of them with anything. Both have no.idea of the truth. Khan is even worse than Reeves if that's possible.

    What are you talking about? When did they ever say they speak for you?
    Erm, the thread header?

    FWIW I have never opposed closer economic links with the EU. At the time we left the EU were as offended as a betrayed spouse and were not willing to offer it. If they have calmed down to the point that they are I would be delighted. We have a lot of mutual interests, probably more since the US went insane.

    I would be astonished if this resulted in us rejoining but anything short of that that improves our terms of trade is no problem at all for this leaver.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,286
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    Because our current trading arrangements (no tariffs, sure, but lots of paperwork) are worse than the ones we had before. So lots of small businesses concluded that the game isn't worth the candle.
    And yet we have grown faster per capita than the EU, both in recent years and over the longer term.

    Takes a bizarre kind of hubris to think we would have grown even faster than them, if only we had remained members.
    Love to see where you are getting your data from - as a counter argument look at Poland
    Odd to choose Poland as a comparator, a former Soviet nation being given vast subsidies. Subsidies we would have been paying for, not receiving, if we were members.

    World Bank GDP per capita data, Euro Area vs United Kingdom.

    We have grown faster than them per capita in recent years (eg since Brexit in 2019 and since Covid fluctuations ended in 2022).

    We have also grown faster than them per capita if you take a longer term view since 2010.

    It takes a special kind of hubris to argue that if only we were bound closer to them, we would have grown even faster than them still.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,997
    edited 6:08PM
    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.

    So the UK govt wins a referendum. Negotiates. What then ? Put the deal to the public ? What if the EU tell us to go swivel.
    If we rejoin the EU we would not have the opt outs we used to have.

    So the question would be do you want to rejoin the EU, Schengen and the Euro.

    And give how crap our governments have been since 2016 - it’s a tempting offer
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,286
    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
    2016 is dodgy data because the referendum played havoc with the currency markets in 2016.

    Taking a more recent benchmark (eg 2019/2022) or a more distant one, shows that the UK has outgrown the EU per capita.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,194
    edited 6:11PM

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    Because our current trading arrangements (no tariffs, sure, but lots of paperwork) are worse than the ones we had before. So lots of small businesses concluded that the game isn't worth the candle.
    Yes, a friend of mine has just thrown in the towel for his business, which made one-off and short run presentation boxes. It had been managing to fend off Far Eastern competition, but the extra bureaucracy (and hence costs) arising from Brexit, both in buying specialist adhesives and papers as well as selling to continental customers, made to impossible to compete any more.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,211
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.

    So the UK govt wins a referendum. Negotiates. What then ? Put the deal to the public ? What if the EU tell us to go swivel.
    If we rejoin the EU we would not have the opt outs we used to have.

    So the question would be do you want to rejoin the EU, Schengen and the Euro.

    And give how crap our governments have been since 2016 - it’s a tempting offer

    It would render the tedious debate about who goes on our bank notes null and void.

    Count me in.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,404
    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2036127530143334562

    There is now a terror cell in north London.

    The fifth column is here.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,647
    Nigelb said:

    We have our scapegoat, ladies & gentlemen.

    Trump blames Hegseth for the war: "Pete, I think you were the first one to speak up. You said, 'Let's do it.'"
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2036125189172244962

    You can hardly blame the Secretary of State for War for being up for a war.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,642
    Labour commit to a referendum with a 3 stage question in EU apply to go back in or stay out, then a sub question, closer integration or full membership and make clear it means this what we'll ask for, not guaranteed EU will agree....

    They win the next GE hands down

    Anyone wanting closer integration or full membership knows only a Labour government or Labour led government can resolve it.

    Reform stymied
    Tories split in half and extinction

    If Starmer hasn't the guts to do it find a leader who will.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,689
    Cookie said:

    My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.

    Mostly mortality more like. Few have actually changed their mind.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,622

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2036127530143334562

    There is now a terror cell in north London.

    The fifth column is here.

    7/7/2005 says hello.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,712
    eek said:

    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.

    So the UK govt wins a referendum. Negotiates. What then ? Put the deal to the public ? What if the EU tell us to go swivel.
    If we rejoin the EU we would not have the opt outs we used to have.

    So the question would be do you want to rejoin the EU, Schengen and the Euro.

    And give how crap our governments have been since 2016 - it’s a tempting offer
    Wouldn't need to join the Euro. Poland recently said they weren't going to anytime soon.

    Schengen isn't much of a problem either (if we had to join). You'd still need to show your passport/ID card to get a plane/boat/ferry between the UK and Continental Europe.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,997

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
    2016 is dodgy data because the referendum played havoc with the currency markets in 2016.

    Taking a more recent benchmark (eg 2019/2022) or a more distant one, shows that the UK has outgrown the EU per capita.
    So basically ignore the 10% reduction in PPP created by Brexit and everything is fine.

    I remember traveling round Europe in 2016 and watching my expenses increasing by 10% over night
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,376

    nico67 said:

    The EU will have nothing to do with a further UK psycho drama unless there’s an overwhelming majority to rejoin .

    Unless there’s a clear Euro opt out then I don’t see you’ll get a clear majority for rejoining .

    The Euro is only a problem because of the people in UK politics who would push for it.

    In fact, you could easily never quite be ready for the Euro. Especially since aligning the budget with the EU rules would probably cause lots of pain.
    Of course you can just kick the can down the road and in effect never take up the Euro.

    The issue is though most of the public don’t do grey areas and the stay out campaign will hammer the issue .

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,647
    You'd need a consistent two thirds polling for Rejoin. Then there's a certain inevitability. It'd be on.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,845

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2036127530143334562

    There is now a terror cell in north London.

    The fifth column is here.

    There have been terrorists, of different types, present in London continuously since before any of us were born. These latest lot look like amateurs compared to some of the nutters we've seen in the past. If he was really worried about this sort of thing he'd be keener on making sure foreign intelligence agencies can't easily fund such groups, politcal campaigns, or political parties. He could start by having a good look at where all the income his own party receives comes from to make sure it's all clean.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,610

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2036127530143334562

    There is now a terror cell in north London.

    The fifth column is here.

    I thought the LibDems were in South West London?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,647
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    The EU will have nothing to do with a further UK psycho drama unless there’s an overwhelming majority to rejoin .

    Unless there’s a clear Euro opt out then I don’t see you’ll get a clear majority for rejoining .

    The Euro is only a problem because of the people in UK politics who would push for it.

    In fact, you could easily never quite be ready for the Euro. Especially since aligning the budget with the EU rules would probably cause lots of pain.
    Of course you can just kick the can down the road and in effect never take up the Euro.

    The issue is though most of the public don’t do grey areas and the stay out campaign will hammer the issue .
    We might be in the Euro now if not for Blair getting neck deep in Iraq. He was hard for it and back then in his pomp could probably have driven it through.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,286
    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
    2016 is dodgy data because the referendum played havoc with the currency markets in 2016.

    Taking a more recent benchmark (eg 2019/2022) or a more distant one, shows that the UK has outgrown the EU per capita.
    So basically ignore the 10% reduction in PPP created by Brexit and everything is fine.

    I remember traveling round Europe in 2016 and watching my expenses increasing by 10% over night
    Its false data that 10% though.

    Look at 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 or 2014 as a benchmark and that 10% was never there.

    The markets overreacted, but if you look at the big picture, either since before the referendum was even announced, or since Brexit actually happened, and the truth is we have outgrown them.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,997
    CatMan said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.

    So the UK govt wins a referendum. Negotiates. What then ? Put the deal to the public ? What if the EU tell us to go swivel.
    If we rejoin the EU we would not have the opt outs we used to have.

    So the question would be do you want to rejoin the EU, Schengen and the Euro.

    And give how crap our governments have been since 2016 - it’s a tempting offer
    Wouldn't need to join the Euro. Poland recently said they weren't going to anytime soon.

    Schengen isn't much of a problem either (if we had to join). You'd still need to show your passport/ID card to get a plane/boat/ferry between the UK and Continental Europe.
    The rules have changed since Poland join - see how Bulgaria joined the Euro on 1st January - now granted that’s because they wanted to but it’s also because they had no escape route as it’s been blocked
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,805

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2036127530143334562

    There is now a terror cell in north London.

    The fifth column is here.

    7/7/2005 says hello.
    I will bet money that it will turn out that

    - Iran (some faction with within the IRGC, probably) paid a bunch of losers to do some damage to anything identifiably Jewish. They have done this before. As have others - see the attacks on SKS's properties.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,994

    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
    2016 is dodgy data because the referendum played havoc with the currency markets in 2016.

    Taking a more recent benchmark (eg 2019/2022) or a more distant one, shows that the UK has outgrown the EU per capita.
    So basically ignore the 10% reduction in PPP created by Brexit and everything is fine.

    I remember traveling round Europe in 2016 and watching my expenses increasing by 10% over night
    Its false data that 10% though.

    Look at 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 or 2014 as a benchmark and that 10% was never there.

    The markets overreacted, but if you look at the big picture, either since before the referendum was even announced, or since Brexit actually happened, and the truth is we have outgrown them.
    And all those models that claim we have done worse than we would have are based on the hypothesis that we would have outperformed the EU even more. They are absurd and meaningless. But remainers have got to believe. They are not used to losing.
  • Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    Because our current trading arrangements (no tariffs, sure, but lots of paperwork) are worse than the ones we had before. So lots of small businesses concluded that the game isn't worth the candle.
    Yes, a friend of mine has just thrown in the towel for his business, which made one-off and short run presentation boxes. It had been managing to fend off Far Eastern competition, but the extra bureaucracy (and hence costs) arising from Brexit, both in buying specialist adhesives and papers as well as selling to continental customers, made to impossible to compete any more.
    Brexit both gave an took away. I produce electronics for niche applications, and by far the biggest market for my products is the UK, followed by Australia and Canada. My sole competitor is located in the EU and brexit mostly locked them out of their biggest market. I'd estimate it cost them over 60% of their sales and their product development seems to have come to a halt.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,994
    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2036127530143334562

    There is now a terror cell in north London.

    The fifth column is here.

    I thought the LibDems were in South West London?
    Not all terrorist groups are Liberal Democrats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,994
    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.

    So the UK govt wins a referendum. Negotiates. What then ? Put the deal to the public ? What if the EU tell us to go swivel.
    If we rejoin the EU we would not have the opt outs we used to have.

    So the question would be do you want to rejoin the EU, Schengen and the Euro.

    And give how crap our governments have been since 2016 - it’s a tempting offer

    It would render the tedious debate about who goes on our bank notes null and void.

    Count me in.
    A decent argument for rejoining at last.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,758

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2036127530143334562

    There is now a terror cell in north London.

    The fifth column is here.

    Such a Drama Queen. Shoe in for Come Dancing after the May elections.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,218

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
    2016 is dodgy data because the referendum played havoc with the currency markets in 2016.

    Taking a more recent benchmark (eg 2019/2022) or a more distant one, shows that the UK has outgrown the EU per capita.
    Both GDP measures I put forward are internationally recognised and valid. GDP per capita PPP in principle compensates for currency volatility and that one has the big gap with the EU
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,840
    I did a confessional video on YouTube. And the wall of positive comments are making me cry. In a good way...

    https://youtu.be/p7EA0l2hwR4
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,610
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2036127530143334562

    There is now a terror cell in north London.

    The fifth column is here.

    I thought the LibDems were in South West London?
    Not all terrorist groups are Liberal Democrats.
    But all Liberal Democrats are in terrorist groups?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,994
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2036127530143334562

    There is now a terror cell in north London.

    The fifth column is here.

    I thought the LibDems were in South West London?
    Not all terrorist groups are Liberal Democrats.
    But all Liberal Democrats are in terrorist groups?
    Insufficient data.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,805
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2036127530143334562

    There is now a terror cell in north London.

    The fifth column is here.

    I thought the LibDems were in South West London?
    Not all terrorist groups are Liberal Democrats.
    But all Liberal Democrats are in terrorist groups?
    {Vladimir Zhirinovsky has entered the chat and beat some minorities}
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,295

    GIN1138 said:

    The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.

    Stop talking the UK down.

    It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
    TSE still bitter, ten years on... :(
    :innocent:

    Leave 52%

    Remain 48%

    [runs and hides!]
    That doesn't really help.
    Makes me feel better....
    The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.

    All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,692
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2036127530143334562

    There is now a terror cell in north London.

    The fifth column is here.

    I thought the LibDems were in South West London?
    Not all terrorist groups are Liberal Democrats.
    But all Liberal Democrats are in terrorist groups?
    Insufficient data.
    Not according to my bar chart.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,376
    If I was the EU I’d be underwhelmed at the thought of yet more negotiations with the UK .

    It might be better for the UK to go into the EEA so just the single market . FOM does have more restrictions than EU membership and it still allows the UK to do its own trade deals .

    You’re not part of the common fisheries or agriculture.

    If there wasn’t so much hysteria at the time then being in the EEA could have been a sensible place to end up .

    Unfortunately some Leave politicians and the right wing press decided to take a maximalist position when all of a sudden it was heresy to even talk about EEA membership .

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,854
    Taz said:

    DougSeal said:

    The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.

    So the UK govt wins a referendum. Negotiates. What then ? Put the deal to the public ? What if the EU tell us to go swivel.
    One step at a time.

    A government would have to win a referendum first. 54% is not much of a lead to be going into a referendum campaign with.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,692
    nico67 said:

    If I was the EU I’d be underwhelmed at the thought of yet more negotiations with the UK .

    It might be better for the UK to go into the EEA so just the single market . FOM does have more restrictions than EU membership and it still allows the UK to do its own trade deals .

    You’re not part of the common fisheries or agriculture.

    If there wasn’t so much hysteria at the time then being in the EEA could have been a sensible place to end up .

    Unfortunately some Leave politicians and the right wing press decided to take a maximalist position when all of a sudden it was heresy to even talk about EEA membership .

    I totally agree, although we will do nothing as long as feartie Starmer is scared of Reform.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,883
    54% for rejoin is hardly a big margin for rejoining the EU especially with that vote split amongst Labour, the LDs and Greens. The 62% for having a closer relationship with the EU without rejoining it, the Single Market or Customs Union is a more supported position and also hence it is the position of Starmer
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,854
    kinabalu said:

    DougSeal said:

    The referendum could only promise that HMG would apply to join the EU. It couldn’t promise it actually happening.

    Yes, equivalent opposite of last time. HMG mandated to seek membership on the best achievable terms. Although not quite equivalent to the Brexit process. We could have left with no deal. We can't join with no deal. There's no unilateral option.
    We can unilaterally change our minds and not join if the EU aren't interested in offering favourable terms.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,610

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2036127530143334562

    There is now a terror cell in north London.

    The fifth column is here.

    I thought the LibDems were in South West London?
    Not all terrorist groups are Liberal Democrats.
    But all Liberal Democrats are in terrorist groups?
    {Vladimir Zhirinovsky has entered the chat and beat some minorities}
    Interestingly, he was born within a couple of months of one DJT.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,218
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
    2016 is dodgy data because the referendum played havoc with the currency markets in 2016.

    Taking a more recent benchmark (eg 2019/2022) or a more distant one, shows that the UK has outgrown the EU per capita.
    So basically ignore the 10% reduction in PPP created by Brexit and everything is fine.

    I remember traveling round Europe in 2016 and watching my expenses increasing by 10% over night
    Its false data that 10% though.

    Look at 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 or 2014 as a benchmark and that 10% was never there.

    The markets overreacted, but if you look at the big picture, either since before the referendum was even announced, or since Brexit actually happened, and the truth is we have outgrown them.
    And all those models that claim we have done worse than we would have are based on the hypothesis that we would have outperformed the EU even more. They are absurd and meaningless. But remainers have got to believe. They are not used to losing.
    Um. EU grew faster than the UK. I posted some figures upthread. Also you appear to be suggesting the Bank of England and almost every economist are inventing models for cope, while we should go with the vibes of a random dude on an internet forum. As an empirical evidence kind of guy I don't find that compelling.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,692
    HYUFD said:

    54% for rejoin is hardly a big margin for rejoining the EU especially with that vote split amongst Labour, the LDs and Greens. The 62% for having a closer relationship with the EU without rejoining it, the Single Market or Customs Union is a more supported position and also hence it is the position of Starmer

    Starmer has a position? That’s new!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 11,099
    edited 6:47PM
    Araghachi's foreign ministry again giving off a very different tone to the IRGC. They say there's nothing and they're carrying on, while Araghachi's foreign ministry says "messages have been received from the U.S. via friendly countries."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,622
    HYUFD said:

    54% for rejoin is hardly a big margin for rejoining the EU especially with that vote split amongst Labour, the LDs and Greens. The 62% for having a closer relationship with the EU without rejoining it, the Single Market or Customs Union is a more supported position and also hence it is the position of Starmer

    54% is better than the 52% Leave managed in 2016!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,478
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
    2016 is dodgy data because the referendum played havoc with the currency markets in 2016.

    Taking a more recent benchmark (eg 2019/2022) or a more distant one, shows that the UK has outgrown the EU per capita.
    Both GDP measures I put forward are internationally recognised and valid. GDP per capita PPP in principle compensates for currency volatility and that one has the big gap with the EU
    There are numerous regions of Poland now richer than not a few regions of the UK.
    However Barry likes to explain it away, the last decade has seen remarkable economic growth in Poland.

    Meanwhile the regional funding our poorer regions used to receive was not (as was promised) matched by post Brexit governments.
    Which cheated many of the areas which voted most heavily for Brexit.

    Opinion polling has been very clear for some time. Most of the electorate believe Brexit to be a crock.
    Brexiteer cope used to be that there is no majority for rejoin.
    Now there seems to be that too, they are struggling to explain it away.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,776
    HYUFD said:

    54% for rejoin is hardly a big margin for rejoining the EU especially with that vote split amongst Labour, the LDs and Greens. The 62% for having a closer relationship with the EU without rejoining it, the Single Market or Customs Union is a more supported position and also hence it is the position of Starmer

    20 points is a pretty big margin. The problem for Starmer is the 62% is much softer, so he's going to really struggle to out-European the other parties.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,776
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
    2016 is dodgy data because the referendum played havoc with the currency markets in 2016.

    Taking a more recent benchmark (eg 2019/2022) or a more distant one, shows that the UK has outgrown the EU per capita.
    So basically ignore the 10% reduction in PPP created by Brexit and everything is fine.

    I remember traveling round Europe in 2016 and watching my expenses increasing by 10% over night
    Its false data that 10% though.

    Look at 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 or 2014 as a benchmark and that 10% was never there.

    The markets overreacted, but if you look at the big picture, either since before the referendum was even announced, or since Brexit actually happened, and the truth is we have outgrown them.
    And all those models that claim we have done worse than we would have are based on the hypothesis that we would have outperformed the EU even more. They are absurd and meaningless. But remainers have got to believe. They are not used to losing.
    I think we would have had roughly similar levels of growth, but we wouldn't have needed 2,000,000 non-EU migrants in two years to achieve it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,478
    .

    GIN1138 said:

    The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.

    Stop talking the UK down.

    It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
    TSE still bitter, ten years on... :(
    :innocent:

    Leave 52%

    Remain 48%

    [runs and hides!]
    That doesn't really help.
    Makes me feel better....
    The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.

    All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
    Or maybe not, now ?
  • eekeek Posts: 32,997
    edited 6:59PM
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
    2016 is dodgy data because the referendum played havoc with the currency markets in 2016.

    Taking a more recent benchmark (eg 2019/2022) or a more distant one, shows that the UK has outgrown the EU per capita.
    Both GDP measures I put forward are internationally recognised and valid. GDP per capita PPP in principle compensates for currency volatility and that one has the big gap with the EU
    There are numerous regions of Poland now richer than not a few regions of the UK.
    However Barry likes to explain it away, the last decade has seen remarkable economic growth in Poland.

    Meanwhile the regional funding our poorer regions used to receive was not (as was promised) matched by post Brexit governments.
    Which cheated many of the areas which voted most heavily for Brexit.

    Opinion polling has been very clear for some time. Most of the electorate believe Brexit to be a crock.
    Brexiteer cope used to be that there is no majority for rejoin.
    Now there seems to be that too, they are struggling to explain it away.
    Were I running a Rejoin campaign - it would be very much “so how has the last 10 years treated you” alongside “enjoy queuing at airports?”
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,404
    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2036148975011508262

    Lisa Nandy tells @elliottengage that Andy Burnham should be allowed to stand for Parliament because he is a 'huge asset to the party'
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,175

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    Because our current trading arrangements (no tariffs, sure, but lots of paperwork) are worse than the ones we had before. So lots of small businesses concluded that the game isn't worth the candle.
    Yes, a friend of mine has just thrown in the towel for his business, which made one-off and short run presentation boxes. It had been managing to fend off Far Eastern competition, but the extra bureaucracy (and hence costs) arising from Brexit, both in buying specialist adhesives and papers as well as selling to continental customers, made to impossible to compete any more.
    I think you'll find the done thing is to blame Keir Starmer.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,211
    In terms of jewellery I’m not sure I will get this for my wife !!

    https://x.com/leodavinciwave/status/2035645889759642022?s=61
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,295
    HYUFD said:

    54% for rejoin is hardly a big margin for rejoining the EU especially with that vote split amongst Labour, the LDs and Greens. The 62% for having a closer relationship with the EU without rejoining it, the Single Market or Customs Union is a more supported position and also hence it is the position of Starmer

    Useless as Starmer is, on this he is probably right. We will never re-join in my lifetime, so closer ties are the best we can hope for. We should never have left, but we did, and the grandees of the EU don't want us back.

    Besides as a result of Putin's "leave" win, the dynamic of Europe changed. Fortunately Starmer and friends made such a hash of leaving no one else wants to take the plunge. Even the pro- Putin Orban is pissing inside the tent from inside rather than pissing in from the outside.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,841
    I am voting Reform if Labour want to reopen old wounds on this. And I won't be alone.

    Let's hope they are more sensible than that.
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 848
    edited 7:00PM
    OT - Currently Lab do not appear to have a plan. We can argue over whether Rejoining would be a practical plan or not. However, it would be a plan and that would be a major step forward for them.

    Frankly anyone who hasn't noticed that getting closer to Europe - notably in defence terms - is an essential to national survival hasn't been paying attention. The old Atlantic alternative is dead and ain't coming back in any reliable form
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,478

    HYUFD said:

    54% for rejoin is hardly a big margin for rejoining the EU especially with that vote split amongst Labour, the LDs and Greens. The 62% for having a closer relationship with the EU without rejoining it, the Single Market or Customs Union is a more supported position and also hence it is the position of Starmer

    Useless as Starmer is, on this he is probably right. We will never re-join in my lifetime, so closer ties are the best we can hope for. We should never have left, but we did, and the grandees of the EU don't want us back.

    Besides as a result of Putin's "leave" win, the dynamic of Europe changed. Fortunately Starmer and friends made such a hash of leaving no one else wants to take the plunge. Even the pro- Putin Orban is pissing inside the tent from inside rather than pissing in from the outside.
    Orban may be kicked out of office shortly.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,622

    I am voting Reform if Labour want to reopen old wounds on this. And I won't be alone.

    Let's hope they are more sensible than that.

    I thought you weren't a racist?
  • eekeek Posts: 32,997

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2036148975011508262

    Lisa Nandy tells @elliottengage that Andy Burnham should be allowed to stand for Parliament because he is a 'huge asset to the party'

    Do you want Reform running Manchester as that’s the feared end result
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,841
    Cookie said:

    My guess is that 75% of the movement in public opinion on Brexit is nostalgia for the time before Trump, Covid and Ukraine.

    I think they genuinely believe it @Cookie
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,994
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
    2016 is dodgy data because the referendum played havoc with the currency markets in 2016.

    Taking a more recent benchmark (eg 2019/2022) or a more distant one, shows that the UK has outgrown the EU per capita.
    So basically ignore the 10% reduction in PPP created by Brexit and everything is fine.

    I remember traveling round Europe in 2016 and watching my expenses increasing by 10% over night
    Its false data that 10% though.

    Look at 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 or 2014 as a benchmark and that 10% was never there.

    The markets overreacted, but if you look at the big picture, either since before the referendum was even announced, or since Brexit actually happened, and the truth is we have outgrown them.
    And all those models that claim we have done worse than we would have are based on the hypothesis that we would have outperformed the EU even more. They are absurd and meaningless. But remainers have got to believe. They are not used to losing.
    I think we would have had roughly similar levels of growth, but we wouldn't have needed 2,000,000 non-EU migrants in two years to achieve it.
    We would probably have had an extra 2m EU migrants instead. I don’t dispute that the Boris wave was at least partly to avoid Brexit looking like an economic mistake. But we also needed that labour due to long term structural problems in our economy built around a very flexible but poorly trained workforce which, combined with poor investment, resulted in painfully low productivity. The fact these problems became endemic in the EU is something rejoiners are reluctant to come to terms with.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,295
    Taz said:

    In terms of jewellery I’m not sure I will get this for my wife !!

    https://x.com/leodavinciwave/status/2035645889759642022?s=61

    Ladies love a "pearl necklace", or so I am told by men younger than me.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,527
    rkrkrk said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    Because our current trading arrangements (no tariffs, sure, but lots of paperwork) are worse than the ones we had before. So lots of small businesses concluded that the game isn't worth the candle.
    Yes, a friend of mine has just thrown in the towel for his business, which made one-off and short run presentation boxes. It had been managing to fend off Far Eastern competition, but the extra bureaucracy (and hence costs) arising from Brexit, both in buying specialist adhesives and papers as well as selling to continental customers, made to impossible to compete any more.
    I think you'll find the done thing is to blame Keir Starmer.
    I blame those Far Eastern countries joining the EU. Cheeky!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,404
    More purple on blue fire from Zia Yusuf:

    https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/2036134301666799925

    No, Nick Timothy is not “brave”.

    He was literally Theresa May’s Chief of Staff, the driving force behind Mayism and its “burning injustices” agenda.

    He is an architect of what you saw in Trafalgar Square.

    He launched the Race Disparity Audit – a massive government trawl of ethnicity data across schools, NHS, prisons, jobs and housing to unearth any disparity of outcome and claim it was evidence of institutional discrimination.

    He personally oversaw the 2017 Tory Manifesto, the wokest of all:

    Forcing civil service diversity targets, an obsession with tackling “hate crime” including transgender identity.

    It was this rampant wokery that laid the foundations for Labour’s Islamophobia definition.

    All while talking about building a “Great Meritocracy”, obsessed with group disparities.

    He promised to cut net immigration to the tens of thousands.

    Instead he supercharged immigration and net immigration has been over *3 million* since.

    Now he wants to be celebrated for pointing to the fires he started.

    Make no mistake, what you saw in Trafalgar Square would not have been possible were it not for Nick Timothy.

    He is a classic Tory.

    Tweets in the direction of where the wind blows.

    Set the country ablaze when in power, then lie when kicked out.

    He is an arsonist firefighter and belongs in the dustbin of history, along with the rest of the Tory Party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,994

    HYUFD said:

    54% for rejoin is hardly a big margin for rejoining the EU especially with that vote split amongst Labour, the LDs and Greens. The 62% for having a closer relationship with the EU without rejoining it, the Single Market or Customs Union is a more supported position and also hence it is the position of Starmer

    Starmer has a position? That’s new!
    Well if you don’t like it (you know the rest).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,841

    GIN1138 said:

    The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.

    Stop talking the UK down.

    It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
    TSE still bitter, ten years on... :(
    I'm still bitter! I've believed in, and campaigned for, European unity since about 1960. You bet I'm still bitter.

    I'm only hanging on to see us Rejoin!
    And, if tried, I will dust down my armour and battle helmet from the cupboard and fight all over again.

    And it wouldn't stop there: I wouldn't accept Rejoin anymore than you ever accepted Leave.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,286
    eek said:

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2036148975011508262

    Lisa Nandy tells @elliottengage that Andy Burnham should be allowed to stand for Parliament because he is a 'huge asset to the party'

    Do you want Reform running Manchester as that’s the feared end result
    I am very skeptical that Reform would win Manchester, its not the most fertile ground for them . . . and if they did then that would be democracy in action.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,841

    I am voting Reform if Labour want to reopen old wounds on this. And I won't be alone.

    Let's hope they are more sensible than that.

    I thought you weren't a racist?
    I'm not, and this would drive polarisation into the electorate again.

    I'd absolutely vote to cockblock Labour on it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,841

    I am voting Reform if Labour want to reopen old wounds on this. And I won't be alone.

    Let's hope they are more sensible than that.

    I thought you weren't a racist?
    I'm not, and this would drive polarisation into the electorate again.

    I'd absolutely vote to cockblock Labour on it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,044
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/2036127530143334562

    There is now a terror cell in north London.

    The fifth column is here.

    I thought the LibDems were in South West London?
    Not all terrorist groups are Liberal Democrats.
    The Provisional ISA
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,776
    edited 7:07PM
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
    2016 is dodgy data because the referendum played havoc with the currency markets in 2016.

    Taking a more recent benchmark (eg 2019/2022) or a more distant one, shows that the UK has outgrown the EU per capita.
    So basically ignore the 10% reduction in PPP created by Brexit and everything is fine.

    I remember traveling round Europe in 2016 and watching my expenses increasing by 10% over night
    Its false data that 10% though.

    Look at 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 or 2014 as a benchmark and that 10% was never there.

    The markets overreacted, but if you look at the big picture, either since before the referendum was even announced, or since Brexit actually happened, and the truth is we have outgrown them.
    And all those models that claim we have done worse than we would have are based on the hypothesis that we would have outperformed the EU even more. They are absurd and meaningless. But remainers have got to believe. They are not used to losing.
    I think we would have had roughly similar levels of growth, but we wouldn't have needed 2,000,000 non-EU migrants in two years to achieve it.
    We would probably have had an extra 2m EU migrants instead. I don’t dispute that the Boris wave was at least partly to avoid Brexit looking like an economic mistake. But we also needed that labour due to long term structural problems in our economy built around a very flexible but poorly trained workforce which, combined with poor investment, resulted in painfully low productivity. The fact these problems became endemic in the EU is something rejoiners are reluctant to come to terms with.
    We've had dreadful productivity growth since 2008. There is a clear break in the data at that point, and it's actually got a bit worse since we left the EU (though that is partially due to the Boriswave, tbh).

    We're discussing counterfactuals in economics so there is little chance of using data to make any progress. But by what mechanism do you think leaving the EU was good for the UK economy? There must be something very significant to make up for the trade barriers put up - the small business in my extended family had a terrible time of it exporting/importing from Germany, and the supply chain has never fully recovered. Do you have data or examples that more than offsets stuff like that?
  • isamisam Posts: 43,883
    John Rentoul’s ‘View from Westminster’

    Boats still not stopped; gangs still not smashed

    Britain and France are “united” in their efforts to curb small boat crossings, according to Keir Starmer’s official spokesperson, as the numbers coming across the Channel imply the opposite.

    The current deal, by which the British government pays the French to try to prevent the boats, expires in eight days and a new arrangement has not been negotiated.

    Meanwhile, we reported on Friday that Martin Hewitt, the head of UK border security command, will stand down at the end of the month after a year and a half in post.

    Hewitt failed to stop the boats. If Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, cannot find someone who can, she will follow him before too long.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,106

    eek said:

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2036148975011508262

    Lisa Nandy tells @elliottengage that Andy Burnham should be allowed to stand for Parliament because he is a 'huge asset to the party'

    Do you want Reform running Manchester as that’s the feared end result
    I am very skeptical that Reform would win Manchester, its not the most fertile ground for them . . . and if they did then that would be democracy in action.
    It's Greater Manchester, remember, not Manchester. I'd expect Reform to win a plurality of votes across GM on current polling and given the evidence of Gorton and Denton and recent local by-elections.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,841
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
    2016 is dodgy data because the referendum played havoc with the currency markets in 2016.

    Taking a more recent benchmark (eg 2019/2022) or a more distant one, shows that the UK has outgrown the EU per capita.
    Both GDP measures I put forward are internationally recognised and valid. GDP per capita PPP in principle compensates for currency volatility and that one has the big gap with the EU
    There are numerous regions of Poland now richer than not a few regions of the UK.
    However Barry likes to explain it away, the last decade has seen remarkable economic growth in Poland.

    Meanwhile the regional funding our poorer regions used to receive was not (as was promised) matched by post Brexit governments.
    Which cheated many of the areas which voted most heavily for Brexit.

    Opinion polling has been very clear for some time. Most of the electorate believe Brexit to be a crock.
    Brexiteer cope used to be that there is no majority for rejoin.
    Now there seems to be that too, they are struggling to explain it away.
    Were I running a Rejoin campaign - it would be very much “so how has the last 10 years treated you” alongside “enjoy queuing at airports?”
    You could try that, but my experience of queuing at airports has been exactly the same as before - and nothing compared to the pain of baggage reclaim.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,622
    BRACE(?)

    "Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing"
    1hr ago

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c77m4zx6zvmo
  • eekeek Posts: 32,997
    edited 7:11PM
    isam said:

    John Rentoul’s ‘View from Westminster’

    Boats still not stopped; gangs still not smashed

    Britain and France are “united” in their efforts to curb small boat crossings, according to Keir Starmer’s official spokesperson, as the numbers coming across the Channel imply the opposite.

    The current deal, by which the British government pays the French to try to prevent the boats, expires in eight days and a new arrangement has not been negotiated.

    Meanwhile, we reported on Friday that Martin Hewitt, the head of UK border security command, will stand down at the end of the month after a year and a half in post.

    Hewitt failed to stop the boats. If Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, cannot find someone who can, she will follow him before too long.

    Stopping the boats with us outside the EU is an impossible task - just pointing out what should be obvious.

    Previously we could round them up and ship them back at no real cost to ourselves - in the same way Italy turn a blind eye as they push African migrants north and out of Italy
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,841

    GIN1138 said:

    The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.

    Stop talking the UK down.

    It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
    TSE still bitter, ten years on... :(
    :innocent:

    Leave 52%

    Remain 48%

    [runs and hides!]
    That doesn't really help.
    Makes me feel better....
    The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.

    All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
    It's entirely the wrong attitude to lock something in for the long-term against the wishes of British electorate.

    That's the principle for which many of us voted Leave in the first place.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,396
    edited 7:12PM

    Nigelb said:

    We have our scapegoat, ladies & gentlemen.

    Trump blames Hegseth for the war: "Pete, I think you were the first one to speak up. You said, 'Let's do it.'"
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2036125189172244962

    Hegseth had better start looking for a new job.
    And a good lawyer, to be on the safe side.
  • GIN1138 said:

    The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.

    Stop talking the UK down.

    It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
    TSE still bitter, ten years on... :(
    :innocent:

    Leave 52%

    Remain 48%

    [runs and hides!]
    That doesn't really help.
    Makes me feel better....
    The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.

    All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
    It's entirely the wrong attitude to lock something in for the long-term against the wishes of British electorate.

    That's the principle for which many of us voted Leave in the first place.
    Be honest, what has it achieved?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,527

    BRACE(?)

    "Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing"
    1hr ago

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c77m4zx6zvmo

    Slovakia is charging cars with foreign numberplates a higher price, as of yesteday.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,404
    eek said:

    isam said:

    John Rentoul’s ‘View from Westminster’

    Boats still not stopped; gangs still not smashed

    Britain and France are “united” in their efforts to curb small boat crossings, according to Keir Starmer’s official spokesperson, as the numbers coming across the Channel imply the opposite.

    The current deal, by which the British government pays the French to try to prevent the boats, expires in eight days and a new arrangement has not been negotiated.

    Meanwhile, we reported on Friday that Martin Hewitt, the head of UK border security command, will stand down at the end of the month after a year and a half in post.

    Hewitt failed to stop the boats. If Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, cannot find someone who can, she will follow him before too long.

    Stopping the boats with us outside the EU is an impossible task - just pointing out what should be obvious.

    Previously we could round them up and ship them back at no real cost to ourselves - in the same way Italy turn a blind eye as they push African migrants north and out of Italy
    That's a totally bogus and contradictory argument. The reason that Italy can turn a blind eye as migrants travel north is precisely because there isn't a real mechanism within the EU to ship them back.

    The Dublin agreement is designed for burden sharing and would mean a net transfer to the UK, not away from it, were we to rejoin.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,404
    carnforth said:

    BRACE(?)

    "Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing"
    1hr ago

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c77m4zx6zvmo

    Slovakia is charging cars with foreign numberplates a higher price, as of yesteday.
    That's probably against EU law.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,527
    eek said:

    isam said:

    John Rentoul’s ‘View from Westminster’

    Boats still not stopped; gangs still not smashed

    Britain and France are “united” in their efforts to curb small boat crossings, according to Keir Starmer’s official spokesperson, as the numbers coming across the Channel imply the opposite.

    The current deal, by which the British government pays the French to try to prevent the boats, expires in eight days and a new arrangement has not been negotiated.

    Meanwhile, we reported on Friday that Martin Hewitt, the head of UK border security command, will stand down at the end of the month after a year and a half in post.

    Hewitt failed to stop the boats. If Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, cannot find someone who can, she will follow him before too long.

    Stopping the boats with us outside the EU is an impossible task - just pointing out what should be obvious.

    Previously we could round them up and ship them back at no real cost to ourselves - in the same way Italy turn a blind eye as they push African migrants north and out of Italy
    As has been explained dozens of times, no we couldn't. Dublin didn't work like that. Or, really, at all.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,106

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Taz said:

    Great idea. Need to get a piece of that excess GDPR, over regulation, economic micro management and low GDP growth we are sadly missing out on.

    And what's our growth been like in the past ten years? Also the last time I looked the UK has GDPR*

    * I don't think this is a bad thing, but opinions vary.
    I said excess, I didn’t say we didn’t have any.

    Our growth has been moribund so how would joining a trading bloc, with whom we already trade and have an agreement with, turbocharge it ?
    But there's a disconnect if you say, don't join the EU because of low GDP growth and GDP growth in the EU has been materially faster than the UK over the same period.

    * Google AI so perhaps check sources but I get 46% UK versus 63% EU growth GDP 2016 to 2025 current USD and 48% UK versus 86% EU GDP per capita PPP growth over the same period.

    Should add UK GDP growth was similar to or better than EU while the UK was a member
    2016 is dodgy data because the referendum played havoc with the currency markets in 2016.

    Taking a more recent benchmark (eg 2019/2022) or a more distant one, shows that the UK has outgrown the EU per capita.
    Both GDP measures I put forward are internationally recognised and valid. GDP per capita PPP in principle compensates for currency volatility and that one has the big gap with the EU
    There are numerous regions of Poland now richer than not a few regions of the UK.
    However Barry likes to explain it away, the last decade has seen remarkable economic growth in Poland.

    Meanwhile the regional funding our poorer regions used to receive was not (as was promised) matched by post Brexit governments.
    Which cheated many of the areas which voted most heavily for Brexit.

    Opinion polling has been very clear for some time. Most of the electorate believe Brexit to be a crock.
    Brexiteer cope used to be that there is no majority for rejoin.
    Now there seems to be that too, they are struggling to explain it away.
    Were I running a Rejoin campaign - it would be very much “so how has the last 10 years treated you” alongside “enjoy queuing at airports?”
    You could try that, but my experience of queuing at airports has been exactly the same as before - and nothing compared to the pain of baggage reclaim.
    Yes, mine too. I've been to the EU three times since Brexit and encountered no more queues than I evet did either there or returning.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,647

    GIN1138 said:

    The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.

    Stop talking the UK down.

    It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
    TSE still bitter, ten years on... :(
    :innocent:

    Leave 52%

    Remain 48%

    [runs and hides!]
    That doesn't really help.
    Makes me feel better....
    The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.

    All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
    Me too. Felt sick. My top 5 sickeners in order of nausea intensity as below:

    1. Trump2
    2. 1992 Con win
    3. Brexit
    4. 2015 Con win
    5. Trump1
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,776

    GIN1138 said:

    The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.

    Stop talking the UK down.

    It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
    TSE still bitter, ten years on... :(
    :innocent:

    Leave 52%

    Remain 48%

    [runs and hides!]
    That doesn't really help.
    Makes me feel better....
    The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.

    All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
    It's entirely the wrong attitude to lock something in for the long-term against the wishes of British electorate.

    That's the principle for which many of us voted Leave in the first place.
    I agree - I never understood why people got so upset at Cameron for holding the referendum, and the fact Leave won entirely vindicated his policy.

    But by the same token we should probably be thinking about another referendum. 20 point gap at the moment - I think at 30 points (and 15 year wait. so 2030 onward), you'd have to support another referendum to avoid being a hypocrite.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,404
    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.

    Stop talking the UK down.

    It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
    TSE still bitter, ten years on... :(
    :innocent:

    Leave 52%

    Remain 48%

    [runs and hides!]
    That doesn't really help.
    Makes me feel better....
    The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.

    All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
    Me too. Felt sick. My top 5 sickeners in order of nausea intensity as below:

    1. Trump2
    2. 1992 Con win
    3. Brexit
    4. 2015 Con win
    5. Trump1
    Why did you have so much hate for John Major?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,295
    edited 7:20PM

    GIN1138 said:

    The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.

    Stop talking the UK down.

    It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
    TSE still bitter, ten years on... :(
    :innocent:

    Leave 52%

    Remain 48%

    [runs and hides!]
    That doesn't really help.
    Makes me feel better....
    The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.

    All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
    It's entirely the wrong attitude to lock something in for the long-term against the wishes of British electorate.

    That's the principle for which many of us voted Leave in the first place.
    Why were you lot kicking back against the Harold Wilson Referendum in '75 for the next 40 years against the wishes of the UK electorate?

    Anyway it's been ten years now. If it is a once in a generation vote, by my watch we can have another in 2032.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,647

    I am voting Reform if Labour want to reopen old wounds on this. And I won't be alone.

    Let's hope they are more sensible than that.

    I thought you weren't a racist?
    I'm not, and this would drive polarisation into the electorate again.

    I'd absolutely vote to cockblock Labour on it.
    You don't think a Reform government and PM Farage would be polarising then?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,527

    carnforth said:

    BRACE(?)

    "Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing"
    1hr ago

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c77m4zx6zvmo

    Slovakia is charging cars with foreign numberplates a higher price, as of yesteday.
    That's probably against EU law.
    It is, but he reckons it'll be over before they can enforce it:

    "Announcing the measures last week, Fico said the limits, which he described as “positive discrimination,” were necessary to stem the surge of diesel sales to people from Poland driving across the border in search of cheaper fuel in Slovakia. EU figures show the average diesel price in Poland pegged at €1.782, significantly higher than in Slovakia.

    “We have reached a situation where dozens of petrol stations in northern Slovakia have literally run dry, because prices there are lower than in Poland,” he said.

    “It has been — and still is — profitable for Polish citizens to come to Slovakia and stock up on fuel,” he added.

    The nationalist leader said he was not concerned about possible objections from the European Commission, as the pricing regulation has been introduced for only 30 days, adding that Brussels would not have time to respond."


    https://tvpworld.com/92230163/slovakias-fico-launches-crackdown-on-polish-fuel-tourism-with-higher-diesel-prices
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,286
    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2036148975011508262

    Lisa Nandy tells @elliottengage that Andy Burnham should be allowed to stand for Parliament because he is a 'huge asset to the party'

    Do you want Reform running Manchester as that’s the feared end result
    I am very skeptical that Reform would win Manchester, its not the most fertile ground for them . . . and if they did then that would be democracy in action.
    It's Greater Manchester, remember, not Manchester. I'd expect Reform to win a plurality of votes across GM on current polling and given the evidence of Gorton and Denton and recent local by-elections.
    I know, and I remain skeptical that Reform would do well in GM. Maybe some areas (Rochdale, Leigh) but overall? Its not their best area at all.

    Worth looking back at 2024 local elections as the last major set that compares. Nationally Reform were given a projected national share of ~11% so were already in the double-digits nationally, but in GM they only got ~3-8% in the wards they stood in and ~5% overall. So their support in GM was about half of their support nationally,
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,106
    Eabhal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.

    Stop talking the UK down.

    It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
    TSE still bitter, ten years on... :(
    :innocent:

    Leave 52%

    Remain 48%

    [runs and hides!]
    That doesn't really help.
    Makes me feel better....
    The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.

    All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
    It's entirely the wrong attitude to lock something in for the long-term against the wishes of British electorate.

    That's the principle for which many of us voted Leave in the first place.
    I agree - I never understood why people got so upset at Cameron for holding the referendum, and the fact Leave won entirely vindicated his policy.

    But by the same token we should probably be thinking about another referendum. 20 point gap at the moment - I think at 30 points (and 15 year wait. so 2030 onward), you'd have to support another referendum to avoid being a hypocrite.
    I'd say 15 years is about right. 40 years without having a say was far too long; the 'second referendum' proposed a couple of years after the first was far too short.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,841

    GIN1138 said:

    The public may be less keen when they see what concessions the EU wants in return.

    Stop talking the UK down.

    It’ll be the easiest deal in history, the EU needs more than we need them.
    TSE still bitter, ten years on... :(
    :innocent:

    Leave 52%

    Remain 48%

    [runs and hides!]
    That doesn't really help.
    Makes me feel better....
    The Leave vote was without doubt my biggest political disappointment.

    All but 25 of my 64 years have been Tory Governments, but each election disappointment "could" be rectified within five years. The Farage smoke and mirrors fiasco was for life.
    It's entirely the wrong attitude to lock something in for the long-term against the wishes of British electorate.

    That's the principle for which many of us voted Leave in the first place.
    Be honest, what has it achieved?
    Regulatory freedom, trading freedom, immigration freedom, political freedom and accountability to our own people for the decisions our government takes.

    Why would you want to give that up?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,841
    kinabalu said:

    I am voting Reform if Labour want to reopen old wounds on this. And I won't be alone.

    Let's hope they are more sensible than that.

    I thought you weren't a racist?
    I'm not, and this would drive polarisation into the electorate again.

    I'd absolutely vote to cockblock Labour on it.
    You don't think a Reform government and PM Farage would be polarising then?
    Oh absolutely, but if you want to force my hand then expect me to respond in kind.
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