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This feels sub-optimal for Nigel Farage – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,641
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    A remarkable conversation about economic policy (responding to the Rachel Reeves lecture this week) on today's Daily T podcast between Tim Stanley, Camilla Tominey and Alistair Heath.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ3pyKzjwhI

    MattW said:

    A remarkable conversation about economic policy (responding to the Rachel Reeves lecture this week) on today's Daily T podcast between Tim Stanley, Camilla Tominey and Alistair Heath.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ3pyKzjwhI

    I’ll watch this tomorrow
    I'm not interpreting and I'll be interested in your reaction; I'll just say that my own blood pressure did not benefit !
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,475

    Hate to break it to you all but the country is not going to suddenly rally around Starmer. He will get a small pity bump in his ratings. Trump is criticising him for some of the very things he is unpopular with UK voters for.

    With apologies to Churchill:

    "If Trump invaded Hell, I would make at least a favourable reference to the Devil in the House of Commons."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,498
    edited 6:05PM
    I would suggest Kemi is more like Robbie Savage, thinks they are like well ard, makes lots of rash stupid tackles in a way that is just so transparent that wily players can see coming a mile off, always likes to start some argie while massively over rating their own ability and never bloody shuts up...while everybody can see they are actually quite shit and doesn't take them seriously.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,475
    algarkirk said:

    biggles said:

    I don’t know whether anyone else has noticed, but I have been watching President Trump’s statements carefully and I am not 100% sure he is the full shilling.

    'The full shilling', now there is a phrase. A great friend, the last I knew who used it entirely kindly and without affect died a few years ago at the age of 96.

    I am put in mind of the late great Bernard Levin, whose expression with the same meaning was 'not quite sixteen annas to the rupee'.

    Queen - "I'm Going Slightly Mad" (1991 Innuendo album)

    I'm one card short of a full deck
    I'm not quite the shilling
    One wave short of a shipwreck
    I'm not at my usual top billing
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,511
    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    A remarkable conversation about economic policy (responding to the Rachel Reeves lecture this week) on today's Daily T podcast between Tim Stanley, Camilla Tominey and Alistair Heath.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ3pyKzjwhI

    MattW said:

    A remarkable conversation about economic policy (responding to the Rachel Reeves lecture this week) on today's Daily T podcast between Tim Stanley, Camilla Tominey and Alistair Heath.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ3pyKzjwhI

    I’ll watch this tomorrow
    I'm not interpreting and I'll be interested in your reaction; I'll just say that my own blood pressure did not benefit !
    Camila Tominy really does need an operation to get rid of what wasps nest in her mouth
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,033
    Brixian59 said:

    MattW said:

    While Kemi major weakness is always going two footed into every challenge without any thought, I think it worth remembering most people have massively short memories and people move on e.g. if Starmer had been in charge during COVID, we might just now be coming out of lockdown.....most of his calls were totally wrong, we would have had just as much COVID fraud / money pissed up the wall (remember their dossier of all these companies should be given contracts and it was basically all chancers and fraudsters) and some right bonkers suggestions, but nobody really remembers or cares. Or look at the platform he stood on to become Labour leader and early couple of years, none of that is what he stood on at the GE, again nobody really cares.

    Kemi's problem isn't going away, too rash, too quick to do the attack dog mode, too online, and not very smart. Plus super weak team around her.

    The Archie Gemmell of Parliamentary Politics !
    Are you suggesting that Archie Gemmill wasn't very good?
    Scored one of the great World Cup goals.

    Saw his legs go, literally within about 2 months at Birmingham, when paired with the excellent Alan Curbishley and underrated Kevin Dillon.

    I remember he seemed to miss as many penalties as he scored.

    Dillon was a decent player.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,487
    edited 6:07PM

    kinabalu said:

    While Kemi major weakness is always going two footed into every challenge without any thought, I think it worth remembering most people have massively short memories and people move on e.g. if Starmer had been in charge during COVID, we might just now be coming out of lockdown.....most of his calls were totally wrong, we would have had just as much COVID fraud / money pissed up the wall (remember their dossier of all these companies should be given contracts and it was basically all chancers and fraudsters) and some right bonkers suggestions, but nobody really remembers or cares. Or look at the platform he stood on to become Labour leader and early couple of years, none of that is what he stood on at the GE, again nobody really cares.

    Kemi's problem isn't going away, too rash, too quick to do the attack dog mode, too online, and not very smart. Plus super weak team around her.

    Starmer played Covid well politically as LOTO. Recognised that the public didn't really want to hear from Labour on it, so didn't try to muscle in that much. Broadly supportive of the government, pitched himself just to the prudent side of where they were. It was a win v flat position in betting parlance.
    That is some serious rewriting of history. By the time we got past the inital phase, he was classic of well you should go further and faster about every decision. Lockdown sooner, locker, harder, longer. Even post vaccination, he was very keen on zero covid BS. His calls for test every time you leave the house for any reason was particually nuts call, especially as we already had a problem with people overusing home testing kits multiple times a day. More money should be thrown at everything. And as soon as government messed anything up, well I wouldn't have done that.
    You're exaggerating. He tended to place the Opposition to the cautious side of where the government were but not to a ludicrously extreme degree. This made sound political sense for two reasons. First it was where the majority of the public were. They were more scared of the virus than they were outraged by restrictions. Second, if death and illness numbers rose due to the government being too slow, too lax etc it would allow a vindicated 'told you so'. Otoh if they didn't, everybody happy anyway. Win v flat, like I say.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,806
    Hi everyone, YouTuber and X influencer here. I make money by making and posting video content. Some of that revenue comes from sponsors who both pay my business to produce either a stand-alone review or sponsored segments to include in the main video. I also receive sales commission on products which are sold using my referral links.

    Why is this relevant? Because I have turned down far more money from refused sponsors than I have made from contracted sponsors. If I don't like the product or the brand or the company I'm not doing it. I'm a performing monkey, but I choose for whom I will be performing.

    Farage knows very well what he is doing. What he is saying. For whom. Why. So if he is shilling for neo-nazis its by choice.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,033
    edited 6:08PM

    I would suggest Kemi is more like Robbie Savage, thinks they are like well ard, makes lots of rash stupid tackles in a way that is just so transparent that wily players can see coming, always likes to start some argie while massively over rating their own ability and never bloody shuts up...while everybody can see they are actually quite shit and doesn't take them seriously.

    Im no fan of Savage. Did the dirty on us

    But this Dean Windass story about him is just gold

    https://youtu.be/S6SmzOqlKMk?si=NcRW7K4PUOA92Tsc

    Oh, and here’s Savage getting into a dust up with the presenter of homes under MC Hammer

    https://youtu.be/LN8qr114UNk?si=IPq-xDunydsiDvLU
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,641
    edited 6:10PM
    An entirely mundane household data energy saving point, which will bore the goaty beard off Leon, if he still has one.

    One of the first things I did when I move into this house in 2013 was to replace all of the 69 (really) GU10 halogen filament 50W spotlights with LED versions, which had just become available at about £4 each from Ikea, and used about 5W each, So about £280. It had paid for itself within about 2-3 years, and saved maybe £100 per annum or so over the former arrangement at the time.

    Looking at my kitchen where i have just replaced a couple that died recently, which has 19 of the things on the ceiling, I have now had to replace of 9 out of 19 of the Ikea spots over 13 years.

    Not bad for LEDs, which were fashionable around 2009 when it was converted. These days one would use LED panel lights.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,498
    edited 6:13PM
    Taz said:

    I would suggest Kemi is more like Robbie Savage, thinks they are like well ard, makes lots of rash stupid tackles in a way that is just so transparent that wily players can see coming, always likes to start some argie while massively over rating their own ability and never bloody shuts up...while everybody can see they are actually quite shit and doesn't take them seriously.

    Im no fan of Savage. Did the dirty on us

    But this Dean Windass story about him is just gold

    https://youtu.be/S6SmzOqlKMk?si=NcRW7K4PUOA92Tsc
    I liked the story about at Leicester, they go in at half time and O'Neill goes absolutely apeshit at one of the central defenders, I think Matty Elliott, full half time taken up with the rant, what had he done that was so bad, he had passed it out the back once during the first half to Robbie Savage. O'Neill was literally going what have I told you, you don't f##king give to him, hes shit on the ball, absolute liability, look we have Lennon, Izzet, in fact pass it to any f##ker but him, I have told you a million times, he is not to get the ball, its not why he is in the team....all while Savage is sitting there in the dressing room....

    I never worked out how he made the big league. He came from Crewe who at the time had a midfield of Danny Murphy, Gareth Whalley, Seth Johnson, Wayne Collins, all ahead of him and all went on to play Premier League. He was literally the 5th choice midfielder and even that was generous, there were others in and around the first team who were better than him. Johnson and Collins were essentially exactly the same type of player he was, but just better in every way.
  • https://x.com/yougov/status/2033921442060919251

    The number of Britons saying health is a top national issue has fallen to 26%, the lowest level in YouGov's tracker since February 2014

    Meanwhile, the number giving a good rating to NHS services in their local area (59%) or nationally (30%) reach their highest levels since mid-2022

    Labour is working.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,169
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    While Kemi major weakness is always going two footed into every challenge without any thought, I think it worth remembering most people have massively short memories and people move on e.g. if Starmer had been in charge during COVID, we might just now be coming out of lockdown.....most of his calls were totally wrong, we would have had just as much COVID fraud / money pissed up the wall (remember their dossier of all these companies should be given contracts and it was basically all chancers and fraudsters) and some right bonkers suggestions, but nobody really remembers or cares. Or look at the platform he stood on to become Labour leader and early couple of years, none of that is what he stood on at the GE, again nobody really cares.

    Kemi's problem isn't going away, too rash, too quick to do the attack dog mode, too online, and not very smart. Plus super weak team around her.

    Starmer played Covid well politically as LOTO. Recognised that the public didn't really want to hear from Labour on it, so didn't try to muscle in that much. Broadly supportive of the government, pitched himself just to the prudent side of where they were. It was a win v flat position in betting parlance.
    That is some serious rewriting of history. By the time we got past the inital phase, he was classic of well you should go further and faster about every decision. Lockdown sooner, locker, harder, longer. Even post vaccination, he was very keen on zero covid BS. His calls for test every time you leave the house for any reason was particually nuts call, especially as we already had a problem with people overusing home testing kits multiple times a day. More money should be thrown at everything. And as soon as government messed anything up, well I wouldn't have done that.
    You're exaggerating. He tended to place the Opposition to the cautious side of where the government were but not to a ludicrously extreme degree. This made sound political sense for two reasons. First it was where the majority of the public were. They were more scared of the virus than they were outraged by restrictions. Second, if death and illness numbers rose due to the government being too slow, too lax etc it would allow a vindicated 'told you so'. Otoh if they didn't, everybody happy anyway. Win v flat, like I say.
    Starmer was too cautious and slow to call out Johnson when obvious he was asleep at the wheel or actively harming us like eat out to help out.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,120

    DougSeal said:

    Hate to break it to you all but the country is not going to suddenly rally around Starmer. He will get a small pity bump in his ratings. Trump is criticising him for some of the very things he is unpopular with UK voters for.

    The whole country, no, disaffected Labour types who’ve gone Green and LD, very possibly.
    Maybe. But i dont see it. Hes damaged goods. And the war bounce argument doesn't imo apply when you're not actually at war.
    The country doesnt thing he is handling Iran well and thats eith him doing nothing.
    He just seems beyomf redemption in ratings
    I suspect in the grand scheme of reality Starmer doesn't get his second term despite a reasonably sure footed war/ non-war.

    I do believe however that when one considers the alternatives in the post war afterglow, Starmer, unless he capitulates to Trump, comes out of this with his reputation much improved. Let us face facts his opponents have pretty much all had shockers. Farage and Badenoch backed the wrong horse and then fell off it. Sir Ed hasn't been as sure footed as he could have been and Zack, although in the box seat at the moment will look weak when it is all over.

    I don't see that you have the ability to look at anything that isn't Conservative with dispassion.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,730
    Trump says war will only need a "couple of weeks" more.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,475
    edited 6:19PM

    Trump says war will only need a "couple of weeks" more.

    He said that "a couple of weeks" ago :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,730
    edited 6:19PM
    So it begins...

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    ·
    54m
    Senior officials in the Trump Administration tell Fox News that Joe Kent was “a known leaker” - and was cut out of intelligence briefings with President Trump months ago. Adding that he had not been part of any Iran planning discussions or briefings at all. An official says the the White House also told the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard that she should fire Kent for suspected leaks, but she never had him removed as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC).

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2033962243855892925
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,710

    So it begins...

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    ·
    54m
    Senior officials in the Trump Administration tell Fox News that Joe Kent was “a known leaker” - and was cut out of intelligence briefings with President Trump months ago. Adding that he had not been part of any Iran planning discussions or briefings at all. An official says the the White House also told the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard that she should fire Kent for suspected leaks, but she never had him removed as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC).

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2033962243855892925

    Thought Trump was a leaker?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,676

    DougSeal said:

    Hate to break it to you all but the country is not going to suddenly rally around Starmer. He will get a small pity bump in his ratings. Trump is criticising him for some of the very things he is unpopular with UK voters for.

    The whole country, no, disaffected Labour types who’ve gone Green and LD, very possibly.
    Maybe. But i dont see it. Hes damaged goods. And the war bounce argument doesn't imo apply when you're not actually at war.
    The country doesnt thing he is handling Iran well and thats eith him doing nothing.
    He just seems beyomf redemption in ratings
    I suspect in the grand scheme of reality Starmer doesn't get his second term despite a reasonably sure footed war/ non-war.

    I do believe however that when one considers the alternatives in the post war afterglow, Starmer, unless he capitulates to Trump, comes out of this with his reputation much improved. Let us face facts his opponents have pretty much all had shockers. Farage and Badenoch backed the wrong horse and then fell off it. Sir Ed hasn't been as sure footed as he could have been and Zack, although in the box seat at the moment will look weak when it is all over.

    I don't see that you have the ability to look at anything that isn't Conservative with dispassion.
    Fair enough.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,498
    edited 6:23PM

    https://x.com/yougov/status/2033921442060919251

    The number of Britons saying health is a top national issue has fallen to 26%, the lowest level in YouGov's tracker since February 2014

    Meanwhile, the number giving a good rating to NHS services in their local area (59%) or nationally (30%) reach their highest levels since mid-2022

    Labour is working.

    I still can't get a GP appointment for love nor money, in fact I constantly getting auto-text spam messages saying don't call us for anything this week, we can't see anybody else, if you need anything go to A&E.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,315

    So it begins...

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    ·
    54m
    Senior officials in the Trump Administration tell Fox News that Joe Kent was “a known leaker” - and was cut out of intelligence briefings with President Trump months ago. Adding that he had not been part of any Iran planning discussions or briefings at all. An official says the the White House also told the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard that she should fire Kent for suspected leaks, but she never had him removed as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC).

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2033962243855892925

    Kent was full on MAGA but this war was even too much for him .

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,959


    Trump says war will only need a "couple of weeks" more.

    He said that "a couple of weeks" ago :lol:
    Nothing he promises is trustworthy.
    He contradicts about a third of what he says within the next week.
    Policy is largely decided by the last person he spoke to rather than any strategy that lasts even several weeks.

    Ignoring the ramblings is probably the best we can do.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,120
    Battlebus said:

    So it begins...

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    ·
    54m
    Senior officials in the Trump Administration tell Fox News that Joe Kent was “a known leaker” - and was cut out of intelligence briefings with President Trump months ago. Adding that he had not been part of any Iran planning discussions or briefings at all. An official says the the White House also told the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard that she should fire Kent for suspected leaks, but she never had him removed as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC).

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2033962243855892925

    Thought Trump was a leaker?
    No, Trump diapers are very robust.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,484

    https://x.com/yougov/status/2033921442060919251

    The number of Britons saying health is a top national issue has fallen to 26%, the lowest level in YouGov's tracker since February 2014

    Meanwhile, the number giving a good rating to NHS services in their local area (59%) or nationally (30%) reach their highest levels since mid-2022

    Labour is working.

    It's the Covid overhang fading, though, isn't it? Labour get the benefit, of course.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,511

    DougSeal said:

    Hate to break it to you all but the country is not going to suddenly rally around Starmer. He will get a small pity bump in his ratings. Trump is criticising him for some of the very things he is unpopular with UK voters for.

    The whole country, no, disaffected Labour types who’ve gone Green and LD, very possibly.
    Maybe. But i dont see it. Hes damaged goods. And the war bounce argument doesn't imo apply when you're not actually at war.
    The country doesnt thing he is handling Iran well and thats eith him doing nothing.
    He just seems beyomf redemption in ratings
    I suspect in the grand scheme of reality Starmer doesn't get his second term despite a reasonably sure footed war/ non-war.

    I do believe however that when one considers the alternatives in the post war afterglow, Starmer, unless he capitulates to Trump, comes out of this with his reputation much improved. Let us face facts his opponents have pretty much all had shockers. Farage and Badenoch backed the wrong horse and then fell off it. Sir Ed hasn't been as sure footed as he could have been and Zack, although in the box seat at the moment will look weak when it is all over.

    I don't see that you have the ability to look at anything that isn't Conservative with dispassion.
    The bottom line is Labour will not change Leader whilst there is war in Iran or involving US and Israel or both in the region unless it gets in to 2028.

    I believe a Labour shellacking in May is factored in.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,498
    edited 6:26PM
    There is one thing for certain about anybody dealing with Trump, its only a matter of time until you fall out and he is on "Truth Social" telling everybody you are a loser, always thought you were a loser, everybody thinks you are a loser.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,498
    edited 6:28PM
    carnforth said:

    https://x.com/yougov/status/2033921442060919251

    The number of Britons saying health is a top national issue has fallen to 26%, the lowest level in YouGov's tracker since February 2014

    Meanwhile, the number giving a good rating to NHS services in their local area (59%) or nationally (30%) reach their highest levels since mid-2022

    Labour is working.

    It's the Covid overhang fading, though, isn't it? Labour get the benefit, of course.
    Also the strikes caused big issues. The government at the time were clearing trying to wait it out until inflation had dropped and then offer lower inflation level pay rise claiming it would be a "fair deal", but the doctors called their bluff and constantly went on strike.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,880

    So it begins...

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    ·
    54m
    Senior officials in the Trump Administration tell Fox News that Joe Kent was “a known leaker” - and was cut out of intelligence briefings with President Trump months ago. Adding that he had not been part of any Iran planning discussions or briefings at all. An official says the the White House also told the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard that she should fire Kent for suspected leaks, but she never had him removed as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC).

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2033962243855892925

    Malicious prosecution starting in 5, 4, 3...
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,511
    Ratters said:

    So it begins...

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    ·
    54m
    Senior officials in the Trump Administration tell Fox News that Joe Kent was “a known leaker” - and was cut out of intelligence briefings with President Trump months ago. Adding that he had not been part of any Iran planning discussions or briefings at all. An official says the the White House also told the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard that she should fire Kent for suspected leaks, but she never had him removed as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC).

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2033962243855892925

    Malicious prosecution starting in 5, 4, 3...
    If I was Kent I'd get to Canada quick.

    High rises in Washington could soon have as many didgt windows as Moscow
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,084

    Hi everyone, YouTuber and X influencer here. I make money by making and posting video content. Some of that revenue comes from sponsors who both pay my business to produce either a stand-alone review or sponsored segments to include in the main video. I also receive sales commission on products which are sold using my referral links.

    Why is this relevant? Because I have turned down far more money from refused sponsors than I have made from contracted sponsors. If I don't like the product or the brand or the company I'm not doing it. I'm a performing monkey, but I choose for whom I will be performing.

    Farage knows very well what he is doing. What he is saying. For whom. Why. So if he is shilling for neo-nazis its by choice.

    He is the leader of what is billed as a moderately hard right party. If we give the benefit of the doubt and count that as his day job, it is absolutely critical to that v role to know where the line is.

    And he doesn't.

    He is shilling neo-nazis for the cash. In that respect, he is Trump, he is a cancer on our politics and he needs to be excised from it now before he shills for neo-nazis for grift as PM.

    We saw where the parroting of neo-nazis nearly led after Southport, I've banged on about that a few times, but it triggered me to how evil some elements of the opposition were prepared to be to slur this Labour government, and there are some of the amateurs on here I've not forgiven on here for shilling for neo-nazis even unwittingly and at second or third hand.

    I do not tolerate this stuff, Farage needs to go and this needs to be the thing on which his political career dies. No compromise.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,170
    Farage monetises racism at £85 a shot. It's what he does, along with flogging dodgy investments.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,710
    edited 6:32PM
    nico67 said:

    So it begins...

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    ·
    54m
    Senior officials in the Trump Administration tell Fox News that Joe Kent was “a known leaker” - and was cut out of intelligence briefings with President Trump months ago. Adding that he had not been part of any Iran planning discussions or briefings at all. An official says the the White House also told the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard that she should fire Kent for suspected leaks, but she never had him removed as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC).

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2033962243855892925

    Kent was full on MAGA but this war was even too much for him .

    Tucker Carlson coming out for Kent against the 'neo-cons' i.e. Rubio. Just put on a bet for Rubio in 2028 as the 'neo-cons' say they have they money and the organisation to back him.

    Vance seems to be fading as he's missed his slot. His backer, Thiel, will be in Rome soon preaching about the coming of the Anti-Christ. As Brenda says - not another one.
  • Jesus, Trump called for a united Ireland. He’s definitely got something degrading up there.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,789

    algarkirk said:

    biggles said:

    I don’t know whether anyone else has noticed, but I have been watching President Trump’s statements carefully and I am not 100% sure he is the full shilling.

    'The full shilling', now there is a phrase. A great friend, the last I knew who used it entirely kindly and without affect died a few years ago at the age of 96.

    I am put in mind of the late great Bernard Levin, whose expression with the same meaning was 'not quite sixteen annas to the rupee'.

    Queen - "I'm Going Slightly Mad" (1991 Innuendo album)

    I'm one card short of a full deck
    I'm not quite the shilling
    One wave short of a shipwreck
    I'm not at my usual top billing
    I think Deltics are great. :)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,713
    AnneJGP said:

    Kemi is going to pulverise Starmer at PMQs this week.

    Iran’s illegal closing, mining and shelling of the Straits of Hormuz is currently wrecking the British Economy, and fence sitting Starmer is doing nothing. Nothing to get oil flowing through the Straits to Britain again, as it should be.

    It’s not just another crisis hurtling towards UK food shop and energy bills, but this is likely to be bigger than the last one Labour haven’t even recovered us from yet. The Straits can remain closed for months and years by the Iranians, unless someone acts.

    And what is Starmer and his government actually doing about it?

    advantage Kemi, Starmer is always just too slow to act, too slow to help the British people, just like he was far too slow to defend Cyprus and British bases. The Falklands were invaded, and within just 3 days the Conservative Government dispatched an Armada of over 120 vessels - Labour took 3 weeks to send just 1 boat on its way to Cyprus.

    When it comes to standing up for Britain and its natural allies in this world, protect the UK economy, protect the British peoples food shop and bills, Starmer’s Labour Government has neither the will nor the ability to act upon the route cause of all this pain, to help reopen the strait of Hormuz. To fight back against Iran’s terrorism on the British economy.

    And why won’t he? this plays to Kemi’s big advantage she can smash Starmer with - Kemi hasn’t fallen out with any allies in a childish game of slagging each other off, like Starmer is doing with the US President.

    What is the government actually doing about the cost of living? For all we know, they're actively working on bringing in rationing.
    That would help the cost of living (if we take that phrase literally) by reducing demand in the very short run.

    Doesn't help with the medium term increase in fossil fuel prices. I get a sense this is the new normal - Hormuz feels like a years/decades long problem now.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,710

    Jesus, Trump called for a united Ireland. He’s definitely got something degrading up there.

    I think Southern Ireland may not be so keen. Was in Brussels in 2015/2016 at the time of the Brexit discussions and they weren't keen then so Boris did them a favour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,811
    I have not been following the news much the last few days, but it is almost astonishing, even now, that Trump would spend all his time as president deliberately provoking and even militarily threatening NATO allies, then would act affronted when they show some reluctance at following his commands.

    Not that I imagine his slights are the primary factor in calculating whether to render assistance, it would be whether they even can and to what extent it is in their interest and the global interest, but at the margins diplomacy matters, especially when other leaders would have to expend political capital to assist, and his egregious conduct means the political cost can be much higher than it would otherwise be.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,966

    Jesus, Trump called for a united Ireland. He’s definitely got something degrading up there.

    When is he planning to invade?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,566

    Battlebus said:

    So it begins...

    OSINTdefender
    @sentdefender
    ·
    54m
    Senior officials in the Trump Administration tell Fox News that Joe Kent was “a known leaker” - and was cut out of intelligence briefings with President Trump months ago. Adding that he had not been part of any Iran planning discussions or briefings at all. An official says the the White House also told the Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard that she should fire Kent for suspected leaks, but she never had him removed as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC).

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2033962243855892925

    Thought Trump was a leaker?
    No, Trump diapers are very robust.
    Thats not what seems to be true based on nose witnesses!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 34,410
    Haven't we done Nigel's cameo videos? 'Can reveal' - ffs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,811

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033942264267841714

    Trump: "I originate -- to put it nicely -- I originate -- many of us do -- from Europe. I love Europe. I've spent a lot of time in Europe. It's a different place. Bad, bad things have happened to Europe. Very bad things. And you better do something about immigration and energy or you won't have a Europe"

    If the alternative is to listen to you Donald, we'll take our chances, thanks.
    A lot of Americans seem to despise Europe, which is up to them I guess, but it can make those within Europe who want to address some major problems in right wing ways face a difficult task, since they either openly slobber at Trump's feet which will hurt their wider chances in most countries, or they try to ignore his conduct but that still causes problems since some in their ranks do still want to slobber and they get upset, and that means the rest get tarred with the same brush even when the mainstream try to differentiate from the Trump style of politics and policy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,811
    Battlebus said:

    Jesus, Trump called for a united Ireland. He’s definitely got something degrading up there.

    I think Southern Ireland may not be so keen. Was in Brussels in 2015/2016 at the time of the Brexit discussions and they weren't keen then so Boris did them a favour.
    I assume they cannot openly say they are not keen however.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,811

    Jesus, Trump called for a united Ireland. He’s definitely got something degrading up there.

    I'd have thought he'd have hated Ireland even more than the Starmer UK. They tend to criticise the US a lot more, plus Joe Biden is Irish (sic).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,730
    Neil tells Lindsay Graham to do one:


    "You and other know-nothing blowhards started this war all on your own. You can finish it on your own. If you’re able to …"

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil

    You want the NATO allies to join you in a war you started without ever consulting these allies about the war or explaining your war aims. We’re meant just to meekly fall in line.
    You recently supported a US invasion of a NATO ally (Denmark/Greenland) but now you want these same allies to join your war.
    Your president disparaged and misrepresented the role of NATO allies in Afghanistan. But now you want them to join with you again in a war of your making.

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2033969093355966532

    (There's a load more!)
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,511
    edited 6:43PM
    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033942264267841714

    Trump: "I originate -- to put it nicely -- I originate -- many of us do -- from Europe. I love Europe. I've spent a lot of time in Europe. It's a different place. Bad, bad things have happened to Europe. Very bad things. And you better do something about immigration and energy or you won't have a Europe"

    If the alternative is to listen to you Donald, we'll take our chances, thanks.
    A lot of Americans seem to despise Europe, which is up to them I guess, but it can make those within Europe who want to address some major problems in right wing ways face a difficult task, since they either openly slobber at Trump's feet which will hurt their wider chances in most countries, or they try to ignore his conduct but that still causes problems since some in their ranks do still want to slobber and they get upset, and that means the rest get tarred with the same brush even when the mainstream try to differentiate from the Trump style of politics and policy.
    Reform 99% slobber Nigel is untouchable
    Tories 50% slobber Kemi is toast

    Donald may paradixically save One Nation Conservatism
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,811

    There is one thing for certain about anybody dealing with Trump, its only a matter of time until you fall out and he is on "Truth Social" telling everybody you are a loser, always thought you were a loser, everybody thinks you are a loser.

    Which is still a worthwhile gamble for anyone in the GOP hoping to win a nomination contest, but not for any foreign leaders trying to cut deals.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,033
    FF43 said:

    Farage monetises racism at £85 a shot. It's what he does, along with flogging dodgy investments.

    Is he still doing that ‘fortune and freedom’ schtick ?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,738
    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033942264267841714

    Trump: "I originate -- to put it nicely -- I originate -- many of us do -- from Europe. I love Europe. I've spent a lot of time in Europe. It's a different place. Bad, bad things have happened to Europe. Very bad things. And you better do something about immigration and energy or you won't have a Europe"

    If the alternative is to listen to you Donald, we'll take our chances, thanks.
    A lot of Americans seem to despise Europe, which is up to them I guess, but it can make those within Europe who want to address some major problems in right wing ways face a difficult task, since they either openly slobber at Trump's feet which will hurt their wider chances in most countries, or they try to ignore his conduct but that still causes problems since some in their ranks do still want to slobber and they get upset, and that means the rest get tarred with the same brush even when the mainstream try to differentiate from the Trump style of politics and policy.
    Reform 99% slobber Nigel is untouchable
    Tories 50% slobber Kemi is toast
    Still spouting bullshit....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,287
    edited 6:48PM
    Evening all :)

    Whatever some may say about Kemi Badenoch and her performance on Iran, it will be as nothing compared to her intervention in the Great Godstone Sinkhole:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20lqvd0x76o

    I was waiting for her to say she was going to look into it but she sidestepped that and was being carefully diplomatic not to blame the Highways Authority, the Conservative-controlled Surrey County Council (1889-2027) whose poor Cabinet member had no doubt to show her the aforementioned.

    Godstone will no doubt have been exciting after a trip to Hayes and some photo opportunities outside The New Inn at the top end of the High Street, opposite the station. It was a part of my childhood - the pub, not a visit from the Conservative leader. The New Inn is a Whelan's pub which I suspect has connections to the Conservative Party - they mention Boris Johnson on their main website page.

    The very fact the Conservative leader feels the need to visit such traditional Conservative heartlands suggests the Party is fearful of losing seats in the coming local elections.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,811

    Hi everyone, YouTuber and X influencer here. I make money by making and posting video content. Some of that revenue comes from sponsors who both pay my business to produce either a stand-alone review or sponsored segments to include in the main video. I also receive sales commission on products which are sold using my referral links.

    Why is this relevant? Because I have turned down far more money from refused sponsors than I have made from contracted sponsors. If I don't like the product or the brand or the company I'm not doing it. I'm a performing monkey, but I choose for whom I will be performing.

    Farage knows very well what he is doing. What he is saying. For whom. Why. So if he is shilling for neo-nazis its by choice.

    Anyone who watches Youtube knows the scammier and scummier brands pay very well indeed. It's praiseworthy when a rare few maintain at least some integrity over who they shill for - people need to earn a living, so sponsor away, but there are limits.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,811

    Neil tells Lindsay Graham to do one:


    "You and other know-nothing blowhards started this war all on your own. You can finish it on your own. If you’re able to …"

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil

    You want the NATO allies to join you in a war you started without ever consulting these allies about the war or explaining your war aims. We’re meant just to meekly fall in line.
    You recently supported a US invasion of a NATO ally (Denmark/Greenland) but now you want these same allies to join your war.
    Your president disparaged and misrepresented the role of NATO allies in Afghanistan. But now you want them to join with you again in a war of your making.

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2033969093355966532

    (There's a load more!)

    In America Neil is just another pinko lefty.

    More seriously, Trump and his people appear to believe strongly that if you are the more powerful party you are able, nay, it is desirable, to demonstrate that power by treating the less powerful like shit, and see that they can do nothing about it.

    Most of the time you can get away with it. But the powerful have always had expectations on how they interact with the less powerful, kings had to be intelligent in how they used their power, and if you behave egregiously then the less powerful will eventually make you pay for it, even if they also suffer, because they won't care anymore.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,676
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Whatever some may say about Kemi Badenoch and her performance on Iran, it will be as nothing compared to her intervention in the Great Godstone Sinkhole:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20lqvd0x76o

    I was waiting for her to say she was going to look into it but she sidestepped that and was being carefully diplomatic not to blame the Highways Authority, the Conservative-controlled Surrey County Council (1889-2027) whose poor Cabinet member had no doubt to show her the aforementioned.

    Godstone will no doubt have been exciting after a trip to Hayes and some photo opportunities outside The New Inn at the top end of the High Street, opposite the station. It was a part of my childhood - the pub, not a visit from the Conservative leader.

    The very fact the Conservative leader feels the need to visit such traditional Conservative heartlands suggests the Party is fearful of losing seats in the coming local elections.

    Last fought in 2021 when they were on 40% plus nationally? Yeah id say they fear losing seats.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,966

    Neil tells Lindsay Graham to do one:


    "You and other know-nothing blowhards started this war all on your own. You can finish it on your own. If you’re able to …"

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil

    You want the NATO allies to join you in a war you started without ever consulting these allies about the war or explaining your war aims. We’re meant just to meekly fall in line.
    You recently supported a US invasion of a NATO ally (Denmark/Greenland) but now you want these same allies to join your war.
    Your president disparaged and misrepresented the role of NATO allies in Afghanistan. But now you want them to join with you again in a war of your making.

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2033969093355966532

    (There's a load more!)

    I like his capitalisation in Why would we align with such Epic Stupity?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,498
    edited 6:55PM
    kle4 said:

    Hi everyone, YouTuber and X influencer here. I make money by making and posting video content. Some of that revenue comes from sponsors who both pay my business to produce either a stand-alone review or sponsored segments to include in the main video. I also receive sales commission on products which are sold using my referral links.

    Why is this relevant? Because I have turned down far more money from refused sponsors than I have made from contracted sponsors. If I don't like the product or the brand or the company I'm not doing it. I'm a performing monkey, but I choose for whom I will be performing.

    Farage knows very well what he is doing. What he is saying. For whom. Why. So if he is shilling for neo-nazis its by choice.

    Anyone who watches Youtube knows the scammier and scummier brands pay very well indeed. It's praiseworthy when a rare few maintain at least some integrity over who they shill for - people need to earn a living, so sponsor away, but there are limits.
    Even then (and this is a total aside to Farage taking his £80 quid to parrot anything) there are been plenty of YouTubers who aren't total scumbags (including channels who out scammers) who have been caught out by products that were dodgy. A lot of it now is through agencies that they are signed with who bring them the brand deals. And also there are some brands (not going to name as don't want to get sued) that aren't outright scam but they are massively overcharging for a product that can be bought for a fraction of price, because they pay influencers so much and very generous affiliate marketing.

    One of the things fitness influencers have got caught with is promoting Creatine Gummies, loads of which turn out not to have the advertised levels (if any) creatine. To everybody the brands look legit, in some cases the brand is cutting corners in others they have outsourced everything to China and the Chinese factory are ripping them off.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,283
    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,549

    There is one thing for certain about anybody dealing with Trump, its only a matter of time until you fall out and he is on "Truth Social" telling everybody you are a loser, always thought you were a loser, everybody thinks you are a loser.

    Given that's where pretty much everyone is ultimately going to end up with Trump, the real game is to lose as little dignity as possible in trying to avoid that inevitability. Some manage it better than others.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,811

    kle4 said:

    Hi everyone, YouTuber and X influencer here. I make money by making and posting video content. Some of that revenue comes from sponsors who both pay my business to produce either a stand-alone review or sponsored segments to include in the main video. I also receive sales commission on products which are sold using my referral links.

    Why is this relevant? Because I have turned down far more money from refused sponsors than I have made from contracted sponsors. If I don't like the product or the brand or the company I'm not doing it. I'm a performing monkey, but I choose for whom I will be performing.

    Farage knows very well what he is doing. What he is saying. For whom. Why. So if he is shilling for neo-nazis its by choice.

    Anyone who watches Youtube knows the scammier and scummier brands pay very well indeed. It's praiseworthy when a rare few maintain at least some integrity over who they shill for - people need to earn a living, so sponsor away, but there are limits.
    Even then (and this is a total aside to Farage taking his £80 quid to parrot anything) there are been plenty of YouTubers who aren't total scumbags (including channels who out scammers) who have been caught out by products that were dodgy.
    Yes, sometimes it is not completely obvious, and that is forgivable to some degree, though if you are taking the money you really should look into it at least a little.

    The weirdest ones I've seen is when they are calling out a certain type of business, then take a sponsorship from the same type of business. That is a bit more insidious.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,315

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    This from the same people that said the Iranians wouldn’t close the Strait of Hormuz and wouldn’t attack other Gulf nations .

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,120

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    Mandy Rice-Davies is on fire today.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,120
    AnneJGP said:

    Neil tells Lindsay Graham to do one:


    "You and other know-nothing blowhards started this war all on your own. You can finish it on your own. If you’re able to …"

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil

    You want the NATO allies to join you in a war you started without ever consulting these allies about the war or explaining your war aims. We’re meant just to meekly fall in line.
    You recently supported a US invasion of a NATO ally (Denmark/Greenland) but now you want these same allies to join your war.
    Your president disparaged and misrepresented the role of NATO allies in Afghanistan. But now you want them to join with you again in a war of your making.

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2033969093355966532

    (There's a load more!)

    I like his capitalisation in Why would we align with such Epic Stupity?
    I thought Brillo was Trump adjacent.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,033

    AnneJGP said:

    Neil tells Lindsay Graham to do one:


    "You and other know-nothing blowhards started this war all on your own. You can finish it on your own. If you’re able to …"

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil

    You want the NATO allies to join you in a war you started without ever consulting these allies about the war or explaining your war aims. We’re meant just to meekly fall in line.
    You recently supported a US invasion of a NATO ally (Denmark/Greenland) but now you want these same allies to join your war.
    Your president disparaged and misrepresented the role of NATO allies in Afghanistan. But now you want them to join with you again in a war of your making.

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2033969093355966532

    (There's a load more!)

    I like his capitalisation in Why would we align with such Epic Stupity?
    I thought Brillo was Trump adjacent.
    Many people assume what his views are.

    He has been damning on Trump both in print and on Times Radio/GMB.

    If he’s Trump adjacent he hides it rather well.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 38,120

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033942264267841714

    Trump: "I originate -- to put it nicely -- I originate -- many of us do -- from Europe. I love Europe. I've spent a lot of time in Europe. It's a different place. Bad, bad things have happened to Europe. Very bad things. And you better do something about immigration and energy or you won't have a Europe"

    If the alternative is to listen to you Donald, we'll take our chances, thanks.
    A lot of Americans seem to despise Europe, which is up to them I guess, but it can make those within Europe who want to address some major problems in right wing ways face a difficult task, since they either openly slobber at Trump's feet which will hurt their wider chances in most countries, or they try to ignore his conduct but that still causes problems since some in their ranks do still want to slobber and they get upset, and that means the rest get tarred with the same brush even when the mainstream try to differentiate from the Trump style of politics and policy.
    Reform 99% slobber Nigel is untouchable
    Tories 50% slobber Kemi is toast
    Still spouting bullshit....
    That's not fair. Sometimes you make some good points.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 958
    kle4 said:

    Neil tells Lindsay Graham to do one:


    "You and other know-nothing blowhards started this war all on your own. You can finish it on your own. If you’re able to …"

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil

    You want the NATO allies to join you in a war you started without ever consulting these allies about the war or explaining your war aims. We’re meant just to meekly fall in line.
    You recently supported a US invasion of a NATO ally (Denmark/Greenland) but now you want these same allies to join your war.
    Your president disparaged and misrepresented the role of NATO allies in Afghanistan. But now you want them to join with you again in a war of your making.

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2033969093355966532

    (There's a load more!)

    In America Neil is just another pinko lefty.

    More seriously, Trump and his people appear to believe strongly that if you are the more powerful party you are able, nay, it is desirable, to demonstrate that power by treating the less powerful like shit, and see that they can do nothing about it.

    Most of the time you can get away with it. But the powerful have always had expectations on how they interact with the less powerful, kings had to be intelligent in how they used their power, and if you behave egregiously then the less powerful will eventually make you pay for it, even if they also suffer, because they won't care anymore.
    It's one of my big issues with some 'might makes right' idealists. Not only do they engage very superficially with their Geopolitics, they also move ever so subtly from making an observational assertion to a moral one that the strong are right to make the weak suffer.

    I'm sure it's been observed here, and elsewhere, what happened to the strong Athenians...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,133
    nico67 said:

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    This from the same people that said the Iranians wouldn’t close the Strait of Hormuz and wouldn’t attack other Gulf nations .

    Did they? When did they say that?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,959

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    A real possibility? So they think, but are not sure yet, that its a non zero chance......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,730
    nico67 said:

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    This from the same people that said the Iranians wouldn’t close the Strait of Hormuz and wouldn’t attack other Gulf nations .

    Donald has a feeling in his bones that the regime will fall in...erm... two weeks!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,914

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    A real possibility? So they think, but are not sure yet, that its a non zero chance......
    I feel a gif coming on…
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,283

    nico67 said:

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    This from the same people that said the Iranians wouldn’t close the Strait of Hormuz and wouldn’t attack other Gulf nations .

    Donald has a feeling in his bones that the regime will fall in...erm... two weeks!
    It's such a nice excursion, he might decide to extend it a little.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,475
    DavidL said:

    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA

    So when my father saw him through his gunsights on the roof of an hotel in Belfast sending out IRA patrols he was presumably there as an observer. If he had touched a gun he would have died that night. But then he knew that.
    "It's a question of equality."
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,881

    Long but interesting thread from someone who wargamed a US war with Iran:

    Includes:

    3. One surprising development: Iran is still moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz while disrupting everyone else. In most war games I participated in, we assumed Iran couldn’t close the Strait and still use it themselves. That would have made the move extremely self-defeating. But Iran appears capable of harassing global shipping while still pushing some of its own exports through. That changes the calculus.


    Ilan Goldenberg
    @ilangoldenberg
    Three weeks into the war with Iran, a number of observations as someone who spent years war-gaming this scenario.

    https://x.com/ilangoldenberg/status/2033566389978423382

    The US could blockade Iranian shipping, but that would risk putting them into a direct confrontation with China.
    Not really.

    The issue is that America is OK with the oil getting through as if it doesn't that will make the oil price worse.

    Which is f***ing stupid. Take the hit on the oil price, and shut the damn thing properly, hurting Iran and putting pressure on them . . . or call off the whole war if you're going to be incompetent about it.

    To be going to war but letting Iran still trade is the worst of all worlds. Morons.
    Confiscate it and sell it on the open market. Money placed in a restoration fund for the GCC (managed by Trump if you have to). And Europe can compensate china by the back door
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,133

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    A real possibility? So they think, but are not sure yet, that its a non zero chance......
    That its not a complex chance either.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,033

    DavidL said:

    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA

    So when my father saw him through his gunsights on the roof of an hotel in Belfast sending out IRA patrols he was presumably there as an observer. If he had touched a gun he would have died that night. But then he knew that.
    Thank you for your father's service.
    Indeed. Very much so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,811

    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA

    The technical distinction he made and has maintained all this time is presumably very important to him and the movement, but, notwithstanding the ongoing case, I'm not sure anyone's opinion about him on either side and his involvement will alter even slightly no matter what, even if there was indisputable proof he never had an official role or rank.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,959

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    A real possibility? So they think, but are not sure yet, that its a non zero chance......
    That its not a complex chance either.
    Complex chances - sounds like something only those pesky experts would consider.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,528

    DougSeal said:

    Hate to break it to you all but the country is not going to suddenly rally around Starmer. He will get a small pity bump in his ratings. Trump is criticising him for some of the very things he is unpopular with UK voters for.

    The whole country, no, disaffected Labour types who’ve gone Green and LD, very possibly.
    Maybe. But i dont see it. Hes damaged goods. And the war bounce argument doesn't imo apply when you're not actually at war.
    The country doesnt thing he is handling Iran well and thats eith him doing nothing.
    He just seems beyomf redemption in ratings
    I suspect in the grand scheme of reality Starmer doesn't get his second term despite a reasonably sure footed war/ non-war.

    I do believe however that when one considers the alternatives in the post war afterglow, Starmer, unless he capitulates to Trump, comes out of this with his reputation much improved. Let us face facts his opponents have pretty much all had shockers. Farage and Badenoch backed the wrong horse and then fell off it. Sir Ed hasn't been as sure footed as he could have been and Zack, although in the box seat at the moment will look weak when it is all over.

    I don't see that you have the ability to look at anything that isn't Conservative with dispassion.
    Fair enough.
    What would "handling Iran well" look like?
    I can't see what any reputable 3rd party country can do other than get their nationals out and not get involved.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,881
    AnneJGP said:

    On the Joseph Kent (Counter-terrorism bod) resignation:

    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    8m
    4/ though Kent's resignation has been slammed by Trump loyalists, the statement will have legal import for every Western democracy with a functioning attorney general system - the first insider testimony (not evidence) that there was no imminent threat.

    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/2033939592340963743

    He's a brave man. The USA seems to be approaching the point where speaking unacceptable truth is dangerous.
    He also believes it’s America’s fault that Russia invaded Ukraine. May be I’m over reading it but he seems to be blaming a shadowy Jewish conspiracy
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,475

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    A real possibility? So they think, but are not sure yet, that its a non zero chance......
    "Zero would be nice!"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,538

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    It is absolutely certain that the Iranian regime will fall.

    The only question is the timespan.

    I would like it to be sooner rather than later, because (a) people are getting hosed around the world by high oil prices*, and (b) it would be nice to see one of Russia's supporters fall.

    However, given that the US and Israeli strategy has been to bomb the cities where the opponents of the regime live, I'm not convinced the fall is imminent.

    * Including, most importantly, my customers in Arizona and Nevada
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,669
    kle4 said:

    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA

    The technical distinction he made and has maintained all this time is presumably very important to him and the movement, but, notwithstanding the ongoing case, I'm not sure anyone's opinion about him on either side and his involvement will alter even slightly no matter what, even if there was indisputable proof he never had an official role or rank.
    The problem he is facing is that the PIRA council/command made decisions that breach the laws of war.

    So if his decision making capacity is proved, he in on the hook for all kinds of prosecution.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,460
    The UK Military and Foreign Service agree with me - the situation is now changed, ignore how it started, the National Interest is now on UK stepping up to the mark.

    "Britain's national interests, those of our very important Gulf allies like Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar also is at stake, as is our reputation," he explained.

    https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-latest-trump-tehran-israel-strikes-us-drone-live-sky-news-13509565?postid=11299643#liveblog-body

    Starmer is destroying the UKs reputation with his fence sitting non action and his bickering with Trump, whilst ships burn in the strait of Hormuz and the British Economy burns with them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,811

    AnneJGP said:

    On the Joseph Kent (Counter-terrorism bod) resignation:

    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    8m
    4/ though Kent's resignation has been slammed by Trump loyalists, the statement will have legal import for every Western democracy with a functioning attorney general system - the first insider testimony (not evidence) that there was no imminent threat.

    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/2033939592340963743

    He's a brave man. The USA seems to be approaching the point where speaking unacceptable truth is dangerous.
    He also believes it’s America’s fault that Russia invaded Ukraine. May be I’m over reading it but he seems to be blaming a shadowy Jewish conspiracy
    That's the only basis I've seen for criticism of Trump from the right leaning direction, admittedly just from things stumbled onto. Hopefully there are more widespread criticisms of him within his own ranks than just that.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,024

    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA

    I'm not sure why that's relevant. People lie. They do it all the time. They particularly lie about being members of a terrorist organisation. The statement can be ignored.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,283
    https://x.com/Faytuks/status/2033982439802937494

    BREAKING: Trump plans to take control of the Strait of Hormuz by force, in a move that could also last several weeks, according to an Israeli source - Kann News

    Israel is also preparing to increase operations in the Strait of Hormuz
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,758
    Why am I always told when I board a train that my behaviour will not be tolerated?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,811

    The UK Military and Foreign Service agree with me - the situation is now changed, ignore how it started, the National Interest is now on UK stepping up to the mark.

    "Britain's national interests, those of our very important Gulf allies like Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar also is at stake, as is our reputation," he explained.

    https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-latest-trump-tehran-israel-strikes-us-drone-live-sky-news-13509565?postid=11299643#liveblog-body

    Starmer is destroying the UKs reputation with his fence sitting non action and his bickering with Trump, whilst ships burn in the strait of Hormuz and the British Economy burns with them.

    Destroying the reputation with whom? Trump already holds the UK, along with everyone else in Europe, with contempt and disdain, they've made that very clear despite then getting smoother talkers like Rubio in to try to calm things down. So there's no reputation to damage there anyway.

    With others? Less clear perhaps, definitely a hit if people think we simply are incapable of acting rather than deciding to not act, but very few others seem to be getting involve either.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,139

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    The phrase "groupthink circle jerk" came to my mind just then. Not sure why.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,484
    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    It is absolutely certain that the Iranian regime will fall.

    The only question is the timespan.

    I would like it to be sooner rather than later, because (a) people are getting hosed around the world by high oil prices*, and (b) it would be nice to see one of Russia's supporters fall.

    However, given that the US and Israeli strategy has been to bomb the cities where the opponents of the regime live, I'm not convinced the fall is imminent.

    * Including, most importantly, my customers in Arizona and Nevada
    If insurance is paid per mile, presmably your revenue goes down when oil goes up. But perhaps the claims reduce so as to exactly cancel this out?
  • eekeek Posts: 32,893

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    Dreaming a justification for what is becoming a disaster
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,736
    Farage has done lots of these videos for money, unless it emerges he clearly knew he was endorsing a far right event I suspect he cam brush it off
  • eekeek Posts: 32,893
    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    It is absolutely certain that the Iranian regime will fall.

    The only question is the timespan.

    I would like it to be sooner rather than later, because (a) people are getting hosed around the world by high oil prices*, and (b) it would be nice to see one of Russia's supporters fall.

    However, given that the US and Israeli strategy has been to bomb the cities where the opponents of the regime live, I'm not convinced the fall is imminent.

    * Including, most importantly, my customers in Arizona and Nevada
    Yep if they are driving less (if I remember the business model) your income is down
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,282

    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA

    I'm not sure why that's relevant. People lie. They do it all the time. They particularly lie about being members of a terrorist organisation. The statement can be ignored.
    He’s saying it in a court of law now. That has consequences if proven to be perjury.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 34,410
    kle4 said:

    The UK Military and Foreign Service agree with me - the situation is now changed, ignore how it started, the National Interest is now on UK stepping up to the mark.

    "Britain's national interests, those of our very important Gulf allies like Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar also is at stake, as is our reputation," he explained.

    https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-latest-trump-tehran-israel-strikes-us-drone-live-sky-news-13509565?postid=11299643#liveblog-body

    Starmer is destroying the UKs reputation with his fence sitting non action and his bickering with Trump, whilst ships burn in the strait of Hormuz and the British Economy burns with them.

    Destroying the reputation with whom? Trump already holds the UK, along with everyone else in Europe, with contempt and disdain, they've made that very clear despite then getting smoother talkers like Rubio in to try to calm things down. So there's no reputation to damage there anyway.

    With others? Less clear perhaps, definitely a hit if people think we simply are incapable of acting rather than deciding to not act, but very few others seem to be getting involve either.
    I am always extremely suspicious about appeals to our 'reputation with our allies', 'international standing', 'standing shoulder to shoulder' - all meaning we should spend money and lives bombing some brown people. Fuck off.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,966

    Why am I always told when I board a train that my behaviour will not be tolerated?

    Sounds as though they don't like you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,811

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/guyaz/status/2033967028231454733

    #Breaking: A senior Israeli diplomatic official tells me: "The assessment in Israel and the U.S. that the fall of the Iranian regime is a real possibility is strengthening."

    It is absolutely certain that the Iranian regime will fall.

    The only question is the timespan.

    I would like it to be sooner rather than later, because (a) people are getting hosed around the world by high oil prices*, and (b) it would be nice to see one of Russia's supporters fall.

    However, given that the US and Israeli strategy has been to bomb the cities where the opponents of the regime live, I'm not convinced the fall is imminent.

    * Including, most importantly, my customers in Arizona and Nevada
    I didn't realise they'd gone so far as to bomb Arizona and Nevada. All deserts look the same I suppose.
    Arizona was won by Trump quite well in 2024, but he didn't in 2020 and it has two Democratic senators (thanks to Kari Lake being electoral poison), and a Democratic governor (also thanks to Lake!), so is definitely on his list of bad states I reckon.

    Nevada was a closer race, so probably just deserving of keeping an eye on though not a bombing.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 34,410

    Why am I always told when I board a train that my behaviour will not be tolerated?

    Try wearing your trousers next time.
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