Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
From ISW
A long-time observer of drone operations in Ukraine suggested on March 17 that the drone footage posted by likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militia front group Saraya Awliya al Dam is consistent with a fiber optic first-person view (FPV) drone. The Iranian proxy group’s decision to advertise its possession of such a weapon would be an explicit threat aimed at the United States.
Fibre optic FPV (the Russian ones) have quite a long range now. Certainly can cover the straits so insurers would have a high level of certainty about paying out.
The US Navy have stated that the straits would be a 'kill zone' so would most likely advise that deploying them would be a political decision rather than a navel one. The same view would be taken by Allied navies too. So it comes down to politics; the number of bodies that are 'acceptable'; and how to deal with the political flack.
Now about those marines. They seem to be slow in getting there as they could have been flown in. Are they waiting for landing craft and why weren't they within the theatre at the start.
It's a first class sh*t show which Israel can use to further degrade Iran and Iranian proxies until Trump finds an out or a patsy.
💥Punchy remarks from Angela Rayner at Mainstream event tonight, esp given she’s viewed as front runner in any Labour l’ship contest:
- she warns Keir Starmer he “cannot just go through motions” in face of decline - and that govt is “running out of time” to show it can deliver change people need.
1,710 Russian soldiers and 29 artillery not reporting for duty in Ukraine today.
That's a big number - especially compared to 13 dead Americans in 16 days of war in Iran. Ukrainians are still keeping quiet about their push to regain land, but this suggests some serious fighting (or Russians surrendering en mase).
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
It disappeared very quickly but it’s the only solution that works. But presumably the treasury didn’t like the risk
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
The USA has ceded control of Hormuz to Iran.
It seems to be even worse than that. Iranian, Russian and Chinee oil is getting through. The ret of the world's? Not at all.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
Of course not - Trump always chickens out and they couldn’t afford the billions per ship it would cost.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
The USA has ceded control of Hormuz to Iran.
It seems to be even worse than that. Iranian, Russian and Chinee oil is getting through. The ret of the world's? Not at all.
Axis of Evil, innit.
Trump should take some time to consider if his Secretary of War might not be up to the job...
I'm beginning to form the view that Trump is dumping his evangelicals and is now courting the neo-cons and Big Oil to boost his chances in 2028. He has the choice of delivering the Armageddon some evangelicals want or simply take the cash the neo-cons say they have to influence the next election. Wondering if Trump will be on the ticket as VP (Russian style presidencies)
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
The USA has ceded control of Hormuz to Iran.
It seems to be even worse than that. Iranian, Russian and Chinee oil is getting through. The ret of the world's? Not at all.
The Gulf States, Qatar Saudi and Oman have about 30 corvettes and frigates between them. Im surprised they arent doing morfe with them given they would be the main beneficiaries of free flowing traffic.
💥Punchy remarks from Angela Rayner at Mainstream event tonight, esp given she’s viewed as front runner in any Labour l’ship contest:
- she warns Keir Starmer he “cannot just go through motions” in face of decline - and that govt is “running out of time” to show it can deliver change people need.
Presumably their takeaway from G&D is the public are against the changes to ILR and migration.
Given the change to ILR, extending it for five years, exclude access to the benefits systems, cheaper tuition fees, free NhS etc etc can she explain where the money will come from to fund this ?
There are fewer than 113 billionaires in the nation so cannot be them
The Boriswave was estimated to cost £234 billion, what people contribute v what they take out, once ILR gained after 5 years. A 5 year delay saves a bit of that.
It’s also not unreasonable to make these changes and changes to ILR have been made before.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
The USA has ceded control of Hormuz to Iran.
It seems to be even worse than that. Iranian, Russian and Chinee oil is getting through. The ret of the world's? Not at all.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
Of course not - Trump always chickens out and they couldn’t afford the billions per ship it would cost.
He’s yet to chicken out of the Iran conflict, in spite of the cost.
Joe Kent testified before the Senate one year ago that Iran and its terror proxies threatened U.S. servicemembers in the Middle East. He said it would be an honor to return to the fight against terrorism, and he pledged to lead with integrity and accountability. The virulent anti-Semitism of his resignation letter makes it clear that Mr. Kent is incapable of upholding these pledges, and those who mistake its baseless and incendiary conspiracies for brave truth-telling are only fooling themselves. Isolationists and anti-Semites have no place in either party, and certainly do not deserve places of trust in our government.
Was it really that ? Literally the only thing that might be construed as that is that he wrote it is a war "manufactured by Israel".
The entire argument if the letter was that he though a war would be long drawn out, hard if not impossible to win, and there was no immediate threat as has been claimed.
What we're learning about the antisemitism industry from the Joe Kent resignation is a U.S. president can say, we did it for Israel, a senator in the opposing party can agree, yes it looks like he did it for Israel, and then when someone resigns on the basis that this war doesn't serve our national interest and say he doesn't like that we did it for Israel, that's still antisemitism. So truth is irrelevant to the accusation. https://x.com/j_arthur_bloom/status/2034027740903707117
I have no priorknowledge of Kent, but his military credentials are evidently far greater than those of the vast majority of his critics (and certainly Trump and the Defense Secretary).
"manufactured by Israel".
CLEARLY Netanyahu decided that as the Iran + US peace talks were reaching a positive point, he had no option but to let peace happen, or take unilateral action immediately.
The whole ethos after mass murder in Gaza was to turn his attention to Hezbollah in Lebanon, this he needed Trump support for and to attack Iran.
He therefore commenced action and then the US followed. Trump blinked and had not quite a split second choice but a pretty immediate choice to make, "stick or twist" he threw his Cards in behind Israel and we all now see the consequences.
The bloodlust corrupt zionist aggressor has to be stopped!
They’re pretty much a rogue nation now under the current regime.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
The USA has ceded control of Hormuz to Iran.
Very much the case.
The USA and Israel seem capable of dropping bombs from 30,000 feet and that’s all.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
The USA has ceded control of Hormuz to Iran.
It seems to be even worse than that. Iranian, Russian and Chinee oil is getting through. The ret of the world's? Not at all.
💥Punchy remarks from Angela Rayner at Mainstream event tonight, esp given she’s viewed as front runner in any Labour l’ship contest:
- she warns Keir Starmer he “cannot just go through motions” in face of decline - and that govt is “running out of time” to show it can deliver change people need.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
Of course not - Trump always chickens out and they couldn’t afford the billions per ship it would cost.
He’s yet to chicken out of the Iran conflict, in spite of the cost.
I find the centrist dads are getting ahead of themselves in procaliming Trump is beaten. Ironically this is just the flip side of Trump when he proclaims he has won.
This will be a longer war than the 12 days and we are not even half way though it. Reporting suffers from being essentially one sided since there is nothing much coming out of Iran. All the reports therefore are Trump centred and the press mostly want to see Trump fall flat on his face.
The most significant event so far imo was the death yesterday of Larijani, the power behind the throne. With him not around to set a direction the IRGC is heading down the path of being a bunch of armed mobs. This could be the first of the cracks in the regime. time will tell.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
The USA has ceded control of Hormuz to Iran.
It seems to be even worse than that. Iranian, Russian and Chinee oil is getting through. The ret of the world's? Not at all.
The Gulf States, Qatar Saudi and Oman have about 30 corvettes and frigates between them. Im surprised they arent doing morfe with them given they would be the main beneficiaries of free flowing traffic.
Iran probably has 300+ drones with fibre optic cables with a range of 20+ miles. Those corvettes and frigates aren't going to last the day.
Where the Gulf States have Iran (and Russia) by the balls is all of their money they hold in their banks. Threatening to sanction that - coupled with the US and Israel backing off their bombing campaign - is how to open the Straits.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
The USA has ceded control of Hormuz to Iran.
It seems to be even worse than that. Iranian, Russian and Chinee oil is getting through. The ret of the world's? Not at all.
I trust you mean "Russian tankers"? Unless Russia is exporting oil via Iran, or exporting Iranian oil they have received through barter or trade.
Indian is getting through too.
I'm interested that the routings have shifted to be through Iranian territorial waters rather than main channels, after approval I assume. That is the pattern that German ships in early WW2 pursued, going through Norwegian waters to avoid the Royal Navy blockade. The Royal Navy went gung-ho and snagged the Altmark in territorial waters, which was carrying 300+ prisoners back from the Graf Spee commerce raids, which the Norwegians were "unable to find" for some reason, wanting to avoid stirring up trouble as a neutral power.
I wonder if the USN would use cutlasses when boarding, as rumoured for Altmark.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
Of course not - Trump always chickens out and they couldn’t afford the billions per ship it would cost.
He’s yet to chicken out of the Iran conflict, in spite of the cost.
I find the centrist dads are getting ahead of themselves in procaliming Trump is beaten. Ironically this is just the flip side of Trump when he proclaims he has won.
This will be a longer war than the 12 days and we are not even half way though it. Reporting suffers from being essentially one sided since there is nothing much coming out of Iran. All the reports therefore are Trump centred and the press mostly want to see Trump fall flat on his face.
The most significant event so far imo was the death yesterday of Larijani, the power behind the throne. With him not around to set a direction the IRGC is heading down the path of being a bunch of armed mobs. This could be the first of the cracks in the regime. time will tell.
That is probably true.
And, it’s a dilemma. If Trump wins, he will be even more vile and belligerent. If Iran wins, they will be even more vile and belligerent.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
The USA has ceded control of Hormuz to Iran.
It seems to be even worse than that. Iranian, Russian and Chinee oil is getting through. The ret of the world's? Not at all.
The Gulf States, Qatar Saudi and Oman have about 30 corvettes and frigates between them. Im surprised they arent doing morfe with them given they would be the main beneficiaries of free flowing traffic.
I think that is perhaps part of an unwritten truce with Iran to set limits.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
Of course not - Trump always chickens out and they couldn’t afford the billions per ship it would cost.
He’s yet to chicken out of the Iran conflict, in spite of the cost.
I find the centrist dads are getting ahead of themselves in procaliming Trump is beaten. Ironically this is just the flip side of Trump when he proclaims he has won.
This will be a longer war than the 12 days and we are not even half way though it. Reporting suffers from being essentially one sided since there is nothing much coming out of Iran. All the reports therefore are Trump centred and the press mostly want to see Trump fall flat on his face.
The most significant event so far imo was the death yesterday of Larijani, the power behind the throne. With him not around to set a direction the IRGC is heading down the path of being a bunch of armed mobs. This could be the first of the cracks in the regime. time will tell.
That is probably true.
And, it’s a dilemma. If Trump wins, he will be even more vile and belligerent. If Iran wins, they will be even more vile and belligerent.
Good morning, everyone.
There's always the Valentinian the Great route (although Valentinian was way more competent as a war leader).
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
Of course not - Trump always chickens out and they couldn’t afford the billions per ship it would cost.
He’s yet to chicken out of the Iran conflict, in spite of the cost.
I find the centrist dads are getting ahead of themselves in procaliming Trump is beaten. Ironically this is just the flip side of Trump when he proclaims he has won.
This will be a longer war than the 12 days and we are not even half way though it. Reporting suffers from being essentially one sided since there is nothing much coming out of Iran. All the reports therefore are Trump centred and the press mostly want to see Trump fall flat on his face.
The most significant event so far imo was the death yesterday of Larijani, the power behind the throne. With him not around to set a direction the IRGC is heading down the path of being a bunch of armed mobs. This could be the first of the cracks in the regime. time will tell.
That is probably true.
And, it’s a dilemma. If Trump wins, he will be even more vile and belligerent. If Iran wins, they will be even more vile and belligerent.
I am not sure that I see that dichotomy. They are both vile and belligerent now and will continue to be so whether they win or lose. This is real Alien-v-Predator stuff.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
The USA has ceded control of Hormuz to Iran.
It seems to be even worse than that. Iranian, Russian and Chinee oil is getting through. The ret of the world's? Not at all.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
The USA has ceded control of Hormuz to Iran.
It seems to be even worse than that. Iranian, Russian and Chinee oil is getting through. The ret of the world's? Not at all.
Anne Applebaum articulating what too few Europeans have managed to articulate properly. A piece that lays out Trump’s geopolitical awfulness in black and white.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
Of course not - Trump always chickens out and they couldn’t afford the billions per ship it would cost.
He’s yet to chicken out of the Iran conflict, in spite of the cost.
I find the centrist dads are getting ahead of themselves in procaliming Trump is beaten. Ironically this is just the flip side of Trump when he proclaims he has won.
This will be a longer war than the 12 days and we are not even half way though it. Reporting suffers from being essentially one sided since there is nothing much coming out of Iran. All the reports therefore are Trump centred and the press mostly want to see Trump fall flat on his face.
The most significant event so far imo was the death yesterday of Larijani, the power behind the throne. With him not around to set a direction the IRGC is heading down the path of being a bunch of armed mobs. This could be the first of the cracks in the regime. time will tell.
One would like to hope so but they have been very resilient so far.
I expect this will be a long, drawn out, affair and the US will struggle to fully open Hormuz and Israel doesn’t care either way.
We need to get used to the idea of Hormuz being closed and plan accordingly.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
Of course not - Trump always chickens out and they couldn’t afford the billions per ship it would cost.
He’s yet to chicken out of the Iran conflict, in spite of the cost.
I find the centrist dads are getting ahead of themselves in procaliming Trump is beaten. Ironically this is just the flip side of Trump when he proclaims he has won.
This will be a longer war than the 12 days and we are not even half way though it. Reporting suffers from being essentially one sided since there is nothing much coming out of Iran. All the reports therefore are Trump centred and the press mostly want to see Trump fall flat on his face.
The most significant event so far imo was the death yesterday of Larijani, the power behind the throne. With him not around to set a direction the IRGC is heading down the path of being a bunch of armed mobs. This could be the first of the cracks in the regime. time will tell.
Although the reporting has switched from the IRGC being fanatics to Larijani being a moderate pragmatist who might be willing to do a deal…
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
No, it all went quiet and Trump moved onto something else.
The USA has ceded control of Hormuz to Iran.
It seems to be even worse than that. Iranian, Russian and Chinee oil is getting through. The ret of the world's? Not at all.
I think, could be wrong, Saudi and UAE are rather opposed, and Saudi's signed a defence pact with Pakistan. That would naturally align India with the UAE, which has normalised relations with Israel.
Anne Applebaum articulating what too few Europeans have managed to articulate properly. A piece that lays out Trump’s geopolitical awfulness in black and white.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
Of course not - Trump always chickens out and they couldn’t afford the billions per ship it would cost.
He’s yet to chicken out of the Iran conflict, in spite of the cost.
I find the centrist dads are getting ahead of themselves in procaliming Trump is beaten. Ironically this is just the flip side of Trump when he proclaims he has won.
This will be a longer war than the 12 days and we are not even half way though it. Reporting suffers from being essentially one sided since there is nothing much coming out of Iran. All the reports therefore are Trump centred and the press mostly want to see Trump fall flat on his face.
The most significant event so far imo was the death yesterday of Larijani, the power behind the throne. With him not around to set a direction the IRGC is heading down the path of being a bunch of armed mobs. This could be the first of the cracks in the regime. time will tell.
One would like to hope so but they have been very resilient so far.
I expect this will be a long, drawn out, affair and the US will struggle to fully open Hormuz and Israel doesn’t care either way.
We need to get used to the idea of Hormuz being closed and plan accordingly.
It would be an error to think that Israel cares about any other country except itself. The result of this will be 1000s of dead Iranian civilians, 1000s of dead Lebanese civilians, infrastructure and civil governance destroyed in both countries resulting in civil disarray not stable government, a huge economic cost to the rest of the world and Israel ticking it's hand out to ask for more money to buy weapons because its run out.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
Of course not - Trump always chickens out and they couldn’t afford the billions per ship it would cost.
He’s yet to chicken out of the Iran conflict, in spite of the cost.
I find the centrist dads are getting ahead of themselves in procaliming Trump is beaten. Ironically this is just the flip side of Trump when he proclaims he has won.
This will be a longer war than the 12 days and we are not even half way though it. Reporting suffers from being essentially one sided since there is nothing much coming out of Iran. All the reports therefore are Trump centred and the press mostly want to see Trump fall flat on his face.
The most significant event so far imo was the death yesterday of Larijani, the power behind the throne. With him not around to set a direction the IRGC is heading down the path of being a bunch of armed mobs. This could be the first of the cracks in the regime. time will tell.
One would like to hope so but they have been very resilient so far.
I expect this will be a long, drawn out, affair and the US will struggle to fully open Hormuz and Israel doesn’t care either way.
We need to get used to the idea of Hormuz being closed and plan accordingly.
Rather like Putin’s 3 day SMO, this is already a US failure on its own terms, regardless of the eventual outcome.
By contrast this is very much not a failure for Netanyahu on his own terms.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
Of course not - Trump always chickens out and they couldn’t afford the billions per ship it would cost.
He’s yet to chicken out of the Iran conflict, in spite of the cost.
I find the centrist dads are getting ahead of themselves in procaliming Trump is beaten.
"If Trump invaded Hell, I would at least make a favourable reference to the Devil in the House of Commons!"
Anne Applebaum articulating what too few Europeans have managed to articulate properly. A piece that lays out Trump’s geopolitical awfulness in black and white.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
Of course not - Trump always chickens out and they couldn’t afford the billions per ship it would cost.
He’s yet to chicken out of the Iran conflict, in spite of the cost.
I find the centrist dads are getting ahead of themselves in procaliming Trump is beaten. Ironically this is just the flip side of Trump when he proclaims he has won.
This will be a longer war than the 12 days and we are not even half way though it. Reporting suffers from being essentially one sided since there is nothing much coming out of Iran. All the reports therefore are Trump centred and the press mostly want to see Trump fall flat on his face.
The most significant event so far imo was the death yesterday of Larijani, the power behind the throne. With him not around to set a direction the IRGC is heading down the path of being a bunch of armed mobs. This could be the first of the cracks in the regime. time will tell.
One would like to hope so but they have been very resilient so far.
I expect this will be a long, drawn out, affair and the US will struggle to fully open Hormuz and Israel doesn’t care either way.
We need to get used to the idea of Hormuz being closed and plan accordingly.
It would be an error to think that Israel cares about any other country except itself. The result of this will be 1000s of dead Iranian civilians, 1000s of dead Lebanese civilians, infrastructure and civil governance destroyed in both countries resulting in civil disarray not stable government, a huge economic cost to the rest of the world and Israel ticking it's hand out to ask for more money to buy weapons because its run out.
And the fools who stood by and enabled the massive economic cost will gladly give them more weapons to carry on fucking over the global economy while their own people’s standard of living tumbles as a consequence.
Anne Applebaum articulating what too few Europeans have managed to articulate properly. A piece that lays out Trump’s geopolitical awfulness in black and white.
Re Hormuz, there was talk, some days ago, of the USA acting as underwriter, to insure oil tankers, which I would have considered essential. Did anything come of it?
Of course not - Trump always chickens out and they couldn’t afford the billions per ship it would cost.
He’s yet to chicken out of the Iran conflict, in spite of the cost.
I find the centrist dads are getting ahead of themselves in procaliming Trump is beaten.
"If Trump invaded Hell, I would at least make a favourable reference to the Devil in the House of Commons!"
In Trump's case, are we sure it would be an invasion?
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuNX_0QRgz8
A long-time observer of drone operations in Ukraine suggested on March 17 that the drone footage posted by likely Iranian-backed Iraqi militia front group Saraya Awliya al Dam is consistent with a fiber optic first-person view (FPV) drone. The Iranian proxy group’s decision to advertise its possession of such a weapon would be an explicit threat aimed at the United States.
Fibre optic FPV (the Russian ones) have quite a long range now. Certainly can cover the straits so insurers would have a high level of certainty about paying out.
The US Navy have stated that the straits would be a 'kill zone' so would most likely advise that deploying them would be a political decision rather than a navel one. The same view would be taken by Allied navies too. So it comes down to politics; the number of bodies that are 'acceptable'; and how to deal with the political flack.
Now about those marines. They seem to be slow in getting there as they could have been flown in. Are they waiting for landing craft and why weren't they within the theatre at the start.
It's a first class sh*t show which Israel can use to further degrade Iran and Iranian proxies until Trump finds an out or a patsy.
Because Rayner's hints towards "Starmer just going through the motions" is patently false as a claim.
That's a big number - especially compared to 13 dead Americans in 16 days of war in Iran. Ukrainians are still keeping quiet about their push to regain land, but this suggests some serious fighting (or Russians surrendering en mase).
Trump should take some time to consider if his Secretary of War might not be up to the job...
I'm beginning to form the view that Trump is dumping his evangelicals and is now courting the neo-cons and Big Oil to boost his chances in 2028. He has the choice of delivering the Armageddon some evangelicals want or simply take the cash the neo-cons say they have to influence the next election. Wondering if Trump will be on the ticket as VP (Russian style presidencies)
Given the change to ILR, extending it for five years, exclude access to the benefits systems, cheaper tuition fees, free NhS etc etc can she explain where the money will come from to fund this ?
There are fewer than 113 billionaires in the nation so cannot be them
The Boriswave was estimated to cost £234 billion, what people contribute v what they take out, once ILR gained after 5 years. A 5 year delay saves a bit of that.
It’s also not unreasonable to make these changes and changes to ILR have been made before.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/britains-ilr-emergency
Modi is in bed with the bad guys.
Because after all it’s not like anything could create a crisis
Because after all it’s not like anything could create a crisis
The USA and Israel seem capable of dropping bombs from 30,000 feet and that’s all.
This will be a longer war than the 12 days and we are not even half way though it. Reporting suffers from being essentially one sided since there is nothing much coming out of Iran. All the reports therefore are Trump centred and the press mostly want to see Trump fall flat on his face.
The most significant event so far imo was the death yesterday of Larijani, the power behind the throne. With him not around to set a direction the IRGC is heading down the path of being a bunch of armed mobs. This could be the first of the cracks in the regime. time will tell.
Where the Gulf States have Iran (and Russia) by the balls is all of their money they hold in their banks. Threatening to sanction that - coupled with the US and Israel backing off their bombing campaign - is how to open the Straits.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuNX_0QRgz8
Indian is getting through too.
I'm interested that the routings have shifted to be through Iranian territorial waters rather than main channels, after approval I assume. That is the pattern that German ships in early WW2 pursued, going through Norwegian waters to avoid the Royal Navy blockade. The Royal Navy went gung-ho and snagged the Altmark in territorial waters, which was carrying 300+ prisoners back from the Graf Spee commerce raids, which the Norwegians were "unable to find" for some reason, wanting to avoid stirring up trouble as a neutral power.
I wonder if the USN would use cutlasses when boarding, as rumoured for Altmark.
And, it’s a dilemma. If Trump wins, he will be even more vile and belligerent. If Iran wins, they will be even more vile and belligerent.
There's always the Valentinian the Great route (although Valentinian was way more competent as a war leader).
https://share.google/oztEH2ZbPezo3thlN
"Is India secretly backing Israel?"
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/2/26/from-gaza-to-defence-five-key-takeaways-from-indian-pm-modis-israel-visit
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/trump-iran-war-allies/686423/?gift=hVZeG3M9DnxL4CekrWGK30uRs6lcGVcv1bBbL_o8vmw&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
I expect this will be a long, drawn out, affair and the US will struggle to fully open Hormuz and Israel doesn’t care either way.
We need to get used to the idea of Hormuz being closed and plan accordingly.
The result of this will be 1000s of dead Iranian civilians, 1000s of dead Lebanese civilians, infrastructure and civil governance destroyed in both countries resulting in civil disarray not stable government, a huge economic cost to the rest of the world and Israel ticking it's hand out to ask for more money to buy weapons because its run out.
By contrast this is very much not a failure for Netanyahu on his own terms.
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