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    alfiealfie Posts: 1
    I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Another day down - another day without a breakthrough for the Tories - another day closer to Ed Miliband being PM.

    I wonder if the press will suddenly panic and go into reverse. Realise the inevitable and try and buy some favours from Ed?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Smarmeron said:

    @Cyclefree

    Well, there appears to have been nothing wrong with the HMRC in 2011, indeed, these lines prove the point

    "The report is based on partial information, inaccurate opinion and some misunderstanding of facts," the spokesman said.

    "The idea Dave Hartnett cuts a large tax bill in return for a glass of wine and a cheese sandwich is just plain nonsense.

    "If he was interested in feathering his nest he would have accepted one of the many highly lucrative offers of work he regularly receives from the private sector," the spokesman added."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16253205

    Hartnett? I am sure I have heard that name recently, I wonder how he is getting on these days?

    Clearly there was no wrongdoing.

    "If he was interested in feathering his nest he would have accepted one of the many highly lucrative offers of work he regularly receives from the private sector," the spokesman added."

    I would further add, it is purely coincedental !!

    http://www.theweek.co.uk/business/tax-avoidance/53256/dave-hartnett-HMRC-Deloitte
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,894
    IOS said:

    Another day down - another day without a breakthrough for the Tories - another day closer to Ed Miliband being PM.

    I wonder if the press will suddenly panic and go into reverse. Realise the inevitable and try and buy some favours from Ed?

    Doubt it

    82 more days of EIC

    Then EICIPM so we will see if he is crap or not.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    alfie said:

    I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.

    Unionists Alfie, not Protestants.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Y0kel said:

    alfie said:

    I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.

    Unionists Alfie, not Protestants.
    Conservatives can NOT count on the DUP, from Dodds himself:

    “We can do business with either of the two leaders, either Ed Miliband or David Cameron, and we will obviously judge what’s in the best interests of the United Kingdom as a whole,” the North Belfast MP told me. “And obviously we’ll also be looking at it from the point of view of the constituencies that we represent in Northern Ireland as a whole. Unionism has worked in the past with Labour governments and we’ve worked in the past with Conservative governments back in the 70s. Indeed, the Ulster Unionist Party propped up the Callaghan administration. But it remains to be seen. We are certainly not in the pocket of either party and we’re certainly in a position where we’re able to negotiate with both of them.”
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course if no deal could be reached the alternative would be a minority government on the Harper model in Canada from 2006-2011, with deals reached with parties one bill at a time

    Can you remind me who is the PM in case there is no majority with the Fixed Parliament Act?
    I got confused a bit.
    Whoever puts the towel on the bench first. Red means Labour, Blue.............
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    HYUFD said:

    Geoff M No government means no money being paid for the army, police, schools, hospitals, welfare etc no new laws, yes, but no decisions being made either on domestic or foreign policy

    It means no such thing! The bills will be paid and things will be signed off, just as they were in Belgium last year with no government. The executive is a mere passing fad. The civil service is eternal.
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    For those wit missed it this morning!

    It's that time of the week again!

    ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week), 15th Feb - 11 polls with total sample 12,946

    Labour lead 1.5%, highest for four weeks!

    LibDem lead over Greens 1.3%, highest for five weeks!

    Lab 33.9 (+0.4)
    Con 32.4 (+0.3)
    UKIP 14.2 (-0.6)
    LD 7.5 (+0.1)
    Green 6.2 (-0.4)

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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,889
    Evening all :)

    It would be hugely foolish to consider the forthcoming election a done deal even after what has been a difficult week for the Conservatives. They are still very much in the game and while the polls show the magnitude of the task no one should write them off at this point.

    The observation I would make is the Conservatives are not going out to make any friends anywhere and that seems a high-risk strategy given the numbers. Given the likelihood of a close finish the odd few seats here and there are going to matter and while Lab-SNP looks the main game in town it is far from the only permutation.

    Perhaps the Coalition Experience has been more scarring than I suppose but I sense no appetite among Tories for anything approaching a repeat performance so it seems that if the anti-Conservative numbers stack up the Tories will go into Opposition.

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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited February 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Y0kel said:

    alfie said:

    I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.

    Unionists Alfie, not Protestants.
    Conservatives can NOT count on the DUP, from Dodds himself:

    “We can do business with either of the two leaders, either Ed Miliband or David Cameron, and we will obviously judge what’s in the best interests of the United Kingdom as a whole,” the North Belfast MP told me. “And obviously we’ll also be looking at it from the point of view of the constituencies that we represent in Northern Ireland as a whole. Unionism has worked in the past with Labour governments and we’ve worked in the past with Conservative governments back in the 70s. Indeed, the Ulster Unionist Party propped up the Callaghan administration. But it remains to be seen. We are certainly not in the pocket of either party and we’re certainly in a position where we’re able to negotiate with both of them.”
    I remember there was a Panorama prior to one election [ I cannot remember which ] in which a DUP MP made it clear that he could not explain to his working class constituents that he was supporting a Tory government. DUP is not UUP.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    Pulpstar Of course not, but if the Tories are the largest party then the DUP would obviously be more likely to support them, if Labour, Miliband
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    Labour leads in ELBOW since August. This week (w/e 15th February) 1.5%

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567039449570107393
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pulpstar said:

    Biggest seat lead for LAB with these for a while

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/

    EICIPM (2.28 BETFAIR)

    Lab minority with c&s from SNP, PC, SDLP
    Where is the second Green coming from ? Norwich South ?
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    edited February 2015
    surbiton said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Y0kel said:

    alfie said:

    I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.

    Unionists Alfie, not Protestants.
    Conservatives can NOT count on the DUP, from Dodds himself:

    “We can do business with either of the two leaders, either Ed Miliband or David Cameron, and we will obviously judge what’s in the best interests of the United Kingdom as a whole,” the North Belfast MP told me. “And obviously we’ll also be looking at it from the point of view of the constituencies that we represent in Northern Ireland as a whole. Unionism has worked in the past with Labour governments and we’ve worked in the past with Conservative governments back in the 70s. Indeed, the Ulster Unionist Party propped up the Callaghan administration. But it remains to be seen. We are certainly not in the pocket of either party and we’re certainly in a position where we’re able to negotiate with both of them.”
    I remember there was a Panorama prior to one election [ I cannot remember which ] in which a DUP MP made it clear that he could not explain to his working class constituents that he was supporting a Tory government. DUP is not UUP.
    The area in which the DUP are very right wing is on social issues, on the economy/welfare etc. they'd have more in common with Labour, especially with the importance of the public sector in Northern Ireland.

    Labour probably couldn't do a deal with them because of their aforementioned social conservatism though.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,894
    Lab lead 1.5%


    That has been about the average lead since October hasn't it?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Artist said:

    surbiton said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Y0kel said:

    alfie said:

    I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.

    Unionists Alfie, not Protestants.
    Conservatives can NOT count on the DUP, from Dodds himself:

    “We can do business with either of the two leaders, either Ed Miliband or David Cameron, and we will obviously judge what’s in the best interests of the United Kingdom as a whole,” the North Belfast MP told me. “And obviously we’ll also be looking at it from the point of view of the constituencies that we represent in Northern Ireland as a whole. Unionism has worked in the past with Labour governments and we’ve worked in the past with Conservative governments back in the 70s. Indeed, the Ulster Unionist Party propped up the Callaghan administration. But it remains to be seen. We are certainly not in the pocket of either party and we’re certainly in a position where we’re able to negotiate with both of them.”
    I remember there was a Panorama prior to one election [ I cannot remember which ] in which a DUP MP made it clear that he could not explain to his working class constituents that he was supporting a Tory government. DUP is not UUP.
    The area in which the DUP are very right wing is on social issues, on the economy/welfare etc. they'd have more in common with Labour, especially with the importance of the public sector in Northern Ireland.

    Labour probably couldn't do a deal with them because of their aforementioned social conservatism though.
    Dunno, Labour aren't in contention for any seats in NI, I expect the DUP's demands will be less ideological and more material than say the SNP or Lib Dems. I think the DUP can do a deal with either CON or LAB
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Artist said:

    surbiton said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Y0kel said:

    alfie said:

    I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.

    Unionists Alfie, not Protestants.
    Conservatives can NOT count on the DUP, from Dodds himself:

    “We can do business with either of the two leaders, either Ed Miliband or David Cameron, and we will obviously judge what’s in the best interests of the United Kingdom as a whole,” the North Belfast MP told me. “And obviously we’ll also be looking at it from the point of view of the constituencies that we represent in Northern Ireland as a whole. Unionism has worked in the past with Labour governments and we’ve worked in the past with Conservative governments back in the 70s. Indeed, the Ulster Unionist Party propped up the Callaghan administration. But it remains to be seen. We are certainly not in the pocket of either party and we’re certainly in a position where we’re able to negotiate with both of them.”
    I remember there was a Panorama prior to one election [ I cannot remember which ] in which a DUP MP made it clear that he could not explain to his working class constituents that he was supporting a Tory government. DUP is not UUP.
    The area in which the DUP are very right wing is on social issues, on the economy/welfare etc. they'd have more in common with Labour, especially with the importance of the public sector in Northern Ireland.

    Labour probably couldn't do a deal with them because of their aforementioned social conservatism though.
    However, many of the No Go areas socially like Gay rights, Abortion etc. , there is very little difference between all the major UK parties including SNP.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    From Dodds' interview sounds like he gets on better with Miliband rather than Cameron. Clegg of course is the opposite but doubt he'll last as the Lib Dem leader after the GE if they get less than 30 seats.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    GeoffM But the decisions on how it is going to be paid for will be left in the air! Civil servants are not too bothered about that
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    Smarmeron said:

    Unfortunately, even if you have cast iron evidence that someone had broken the law, you would be sued if you mentioned their name,
    As long as they agree on a settlement, they are granted immunity from prosecution, and without a court case there can be no guilt.
    Probably easier to write it off as a left wing conspiracy though, it saves thinking.

    It is true that a certificate of conviction is conclusive evidence in defamation proceedings that the claimant committed the offence in question (Civil Evidence Act 1968, s. 13). The fact, however, that the claimant has not been convicted of an offence will not negative a defence of truth (Defamation Act 2013, s. 2). Moreover, even if an allegation is untrue, provided it relates to the public interest and the defendant reasonably believed its publication was in the public interest, he will have a complete defence to an action for defamation (2013 Act, s. 4). In short, you are talking nonsense.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Y0kel said:

    Copenhagen

    The dead man, as you would expect, was known to Danish authorities. It looks, however, like the police have stumbled on a potential intelligence haul.

    Some good news at least out of the disgusting and depressing events
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    IOS said:

    Another day down - another day without a breakthrough for the Tories - another day closer to Ed Miliband being PM.

    I wonder if the press will suddenly panic and go into reverse. Realise the inevitable and try and buy some favours from Ed?

    Because numerous studies have shown that nothing interesting ever happens in any given period of 82 days, especially when the period ends with GE day?


    Que sera, sera
    Whatever will be, will be
    The future's not ours to see
    Que sera, sera
    What will be, will be
    Que Sera, Sera

    So chill.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,360
    edited February 2015
    Speedy said:



    The LDs have made it clear that they won't do "supply & confidence" with either LAB or CON. It is coalition or nothing if another party wants its support. They will say that the problems facing country so great that stable government a necessity.

    It is a good opening negotiating position

    Interesting, hadn't seen that. But what does "nothing" mean exactly? In practice either Miliband or Cameron will seek a vote of confidence. Will they vote against both if they're not offered seats in the Cabinet? A bit unpromising to sell that as a strategy for stable government.
    Who said the next government will be stable?
    It has all the provisions of being as dysfunctional as a typical american government.
    Well, I'm just going by their stated reason cited by Mike: "They will say that the problems facing country so great that stable government a necessity." To use that as a reason to vote down any government if they had the chance would be eccentric.

    Incidentally, I think the tax avoidance thing has probably peaked now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Labour lead settling back to the 0-1 range again. But my bet with Audrey that we shan't see a Tory lead of 7 (which is what they need to hold Broxtowe, other things being equal) is looking good. Not sure how I'll collect if she's banned though!

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    Stodge If the Tories are largest party Cameron will be PM, either in a minority government, a confidence or supply arrangement or another coalition.

    Pulpstar Regardless of who they like personally the LDs and DUP will deal with the largest party first, the SNP, Greens and Plaid and SDLP and Respect only with Labour, UKIP with the Tories solely on the basis of an early EU referendum
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Life_ina_market_town
    I asked about admissible evidence on here a day or so ago, and from the only reply I had, it was that basically only that which would stand up in a criminal court would be acceptable.
    I am glad to be corrected.
    However, I will leave any possible suing and litigation to others with more resources than I have.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Reading this thread I sense there are a number of labour backers with very under water positions.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    HYUFD said:

    MikeK It is under Atticus (albeit behind the paywall)

    Well,well; more bullshit from Atticus then.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/

    A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Speedy said:



    The LDs have made it clear that they won't do "supply & confidence" with either LAB or CON. It is coalition or nothing if another party wants its support. They will say that the problems facing country so great that stable government a necessity.

    It is a good opening negotiating position

    Interesting, hadn't seen that. But what does "nothing" mean exactly? In practice either Miliband or Cameron will seek a vote of confidence. Will they vote against both if they're not offered seats in the Cabinet? A bit unpromising to sell that as a strategy for stable government.
    Who said the next government will be stable?
    It has all the provisions of being as dysfunctional as a typical american government.
    Well, I'm just going by their stated reason cited by Mike: "They will say that the problems facing country so great that stable government a necessity." To use that as a reason to vote down any government if they had the chance would be eccentric.

    Incidentally, I think the tax avoidance thing has probably peaked now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Labour lead settling back to the 0-1 range again. But my bet with Audrey that we shan't see a Tory lead of 7 (which is what they need to hold Broxtowe, other things being equal) is looking good. Not sure how I'll collect if she's banned though!

    Ho ho ho - 'tax avoidance thing has peaked' just as Labour are caught out as being stupendous hypocrites. And this is before we get to cash for honours. Well there is is, yet another surprise from Mr Palmer.

    And hold the front page - owning up to the best prospect of a Labour minority govt, Socialist candidate says it would be wrong to vote it down. Just what are the great problems facing the next minority govt that it must not be voted down? Can it be falling deficit, falling inflation, rising employment, controlled spending, reformed welfare and pensions? All issues the last big majority socialist govt either ignored or created.
    The last labour govt with a big majority double spending at constant prices in 10 years, with no attempt to raise the revenue to pay for it all.
    The nerve of it all. Lets put our faith in the good people of Broxtowe.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015

    Speedy said:



    The LDs have made it clear that they won't do "supply & confidence" with either LAB or CON. It is coalition or nothing if another party wants its support. They will say that the problems facing country so great that stable government a necessity.

    It is a good opening negotiating position

    Interesting, hadn't seen that. But what does "nothing" mean exactly? In practice either Miliband or Cameron will seek a vote of confidence. Will they vote against both if they're not offered seats in the Cabinet? A bit unpromising to sell that as a strategy for stable government.
    Who said the next government will be stable?
    It has all the provisions of being as dysfunctional as a typical american government.
    Well, I'm just going by their stated reason cited by Mike: "They will say that the problems facing country so great that stable government a necessity." To use that as a reason to vote down any government if they had the chance would be eccentric.

    Incidentally, I think the tax avoidance thing has probably peaked now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Labour lead settling back to the 0-1 range again. But my bet with Audrey that we shan't see a Tory lead of 7 (which is what they need to hold Broxtowe, other things being equal) is looking good. Not sure how I'll collect if she's banned though!

    Ho ho ho - 'tax avoidance thing has peaked' just as Labour are caught out as being stupendous hypocrites. And this is before we get to cash for honours. Well there is is, yet another surprise from Mr Palmer.

    And hold the front page - owning up to the best prospect of a Labour minority govt, Socialist candidate says it would be wrong to vote it down. Just what are the great problems facing the next minority govt that it must not be voted down? Can it be falling deficit, falling inflation, rising employment, controlled spending, reformed welfare and pensions? All issues the last big majority socialist govt either ignored or created.
    The last labour govt with a big majority double spending at constant prices in 10 years, with no attempt to raise the revenue to pay for it all.
    The nerve of it all. Lets put our faith in the good people of Broxtowe.
    Anna Soubry was very good on last weeks Any Questions. Broxtowe should think twice before they reject an impressive MP who's actually gone places in her short time as their representative.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited February 2015
    What's striking is the complete lack of panic amongst senior tories in the face of rank polling. There are no major reports of dissent, disquiet, frustration etc.

    Could the tories have something up their sleeves?? Budget??
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,311
    edited February 2015
    If Con and Lab are effectively level then I feel LD will be inclined to go with Lab.

    However if Con + LD would be enough for a majority (with DUP support) whereas it would require Lab + LD + SNP for a majority then I feel certain LD would go with Con.

    I can't imagine LD preferring an option which also required SNP support - because the last thing on earth they will want is to have to start negotiating with the SNP.

    So for Cameron to remain PM at worst he needs something like:

    Con 285
    Lab 275
    LD 30
    SNP 40

    So Con 285 + LD 30 + DUP 8 = 323.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited February 2015


    The nerve of it all. Lets put our faith in the good people of Broxtowe.

    I feel sorry for the voters of Broxtowe. They have two very unsatisfactory candidates*

    *Other unsatisfactory candidates are available

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    MikeL said:

    If Con and Lab are effectively level then I feel LD will be inclined to go with Lab.

    However if Con + LD would be enough for a majority (with DUP support) whereas it would require Lab + LD + SNP for a majority then I feel certain LD would go with Con.

    I can't imagine LD preferring an option which also required SNP support - because the last thing on earth they will want is to have to start negotiating with the SNP.

    They could abstein ;)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    MikeK Has been reported elsewhere too

    taffys Miliband is far from polling near the level he needs to be assured of a majority, the UKIP vote is still there to be squeezed, Labour will lose 20-30 seats in Scotland on present polling and the odd poll has the Tories ahead
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    MikeK said:

    http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/

    A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.

    Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.
    Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
    Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy Well, so what, regardless of potential by-election defeats if there is no deal with the LDs and Labour needs them for a majority in effect we would get no government at all!

    Blame the Fixed Parliament Act for creating a possibility of a government not having control of parliament.
    However the Act can be abolished.
    No government would suit me fine. Far too many authoritarian acts passed in the last twenty years. Parliament needs to return to its proper purpose of controlling the government, not being the government.
    That's an interesting thought which I agree, it is the american system of government.
    The House of Commons will degenerate into the US Congress, we can have a government which can't pass legislation, like in America.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-4FQAov2xI
    The US President can veto bills can't he? And of course he gets bills passed by spreading pork and all and sundry sell their vote to anybody for pork. An unelected supreme court can dictate the law.
    Look at the out of control US spending over the years.
    This is a good system?
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    taffys said:

    What's striking is the complete lack of panic amongst senior tories in the face of rank polling. There are no major reports of dissent, disquiet, frustration etc.

    Could the tories have something up their sleeves?? Budget??

    You raise an interesting point. Could it be because most of those in marginal seats won them last time and are therefore not as fearful of losing their jobs as they would be if they had been in situ for 10+ years?
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Pulpstar said:

    From Dodds' interview sounds like he gets on better with Miliband rather than Cameron. Clegg of course is the opposite but doubt he'll last as the Lib Dem leader after the GE if they get less than 30 seats.

    If Clegg leads the LDs out of the torture of power, then it will be the promised land as far as most of them are concerned.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    "Where is the second Green coming from ? Norwich South ? "

    Or maybe Bristol West.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    MikeK said:

    http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/

    A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.

    Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.
    Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
    Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
    Yep. They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) and use a lot less power. Don't tell me kippers are living in the past again? Actually I have not bought any recently but noticed that Homebase B&Q etc are piling them high so maybe they are selling cheap...
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited February 2015
    Could it be because most of those in marginal seats won them last time and are therefore not as fearful of losing their jobs as they would be if they had been in situ for 10+ years?

    I have read that the reception on the doorstep is not as bad as some MPs had expected. But then they would say that, wouldn't they?

    For me the tories still really haven't got going. Dave is still being Prime Minister. I wonder if he will stake all on a huge blitz close to the vote.

    It seemed to work for the Scottish referendum.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    MikeK said:

    http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/

    A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.

    Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.
    Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
    Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
    Oh wonderful, we are allowed light bulbs which "come on instantly" - a problem I thought Edison had cracked - so only about 15 years sitting in semi-darkness imposed on us by scientific illiterates who take George Monbiot seriously and think Karl Popper is a vaguely funny name (possibly a gay porn star?) Because CO2 poisoning is soooo much more lethal than mercury poisoning.
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    Greens on their lowest score in ELBOW this year:
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567055328991514624
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    MikeK said:

    http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/

    A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.

    Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.
    Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
    Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
    Yep. They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) and use a lot less power. Don't tell me kippers are living in the past again? Actually I have not bought any recently but noticed that Homebase B&Q etc are piling them high so maybe they are selling cheap...
    You spend a lot of time comparison shopping in "Homebase B&Q etc"? (Love the "etc"). I thought it was Ukip supporters who had disappointing lives.
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    Lab lead 1.5%


    That has been about the average lead since October hasn't it?
    Since the end of October, it's been 1.4% on average
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    MikeK said:

    http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/

    A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.

    Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.
    Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
    Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
    Yep. They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) and use a lot less power. Don't tell me kippers are living in the past again? Actually I have not bought any recently but noticed that Homebase B&Q etc are piling them high so maybe they are selling cheap...
    I've replaced all my old bulbs mostly with LEDs (still have a few CFLs - and yes I'll take the old ones down to the recycling centre next time I go).
    You have to be careful buying ultra cheap Chinese LEDs on EBay, but from DIY shops should be high quality. My local B&Q has examples running so you can check the colour and brightness.
    As far as UKIP is concerned, they would try to find any drawback that they can with anything that the EU is championing.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    A friend had a watt meter, and we tested CFL bulbs, they used twice as much power than stated on the box, we also tested leds - they were spot on.
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    Ishmael_X said:

    MikeK said:

    http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/

    A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.

    Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.
    Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
    Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
    Yep. They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) and use a lot less power. Don't tell me kippers are living in the past again? Actually I have not bought any recently but noticed that Homebase B&Q etc are piling them high so maybe they are selling cheap...
    You spend a lot of time comparison shopping in "Homebase B&Q etc"? (Love the "etc"). I thought it was Ukip supporters who had disappointing lives.
    What a negative comment.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited February 2015
    taffys said:

    I have read that the reception on the doorstep is not as bad as some MPs had expected. But then they would say that, wouldn't they?
    For me the tories still really haven't got going. Dave is still being Prime Minister. I wonder if he will stake all on a huge blitz close to the vote.
    It seemed to work for the Scottish referendum.

    Cameron has a past record of leaving things to the last minute. That is unlikely to work at a GE.
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    PAW said:

    A friend had a watt meter, and we tested CFL bulbs, they used twice as much power than stated on the box, we also tested leds - they were spot on.

    My bill has certainly gone down. It's false economy to stick with 19th century technology.
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    Ishmael_X said:

    MikeK said:

    http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/

    A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.

    Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.
    Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
    Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
    Oh wonderful, we are allowed light bulbs which "come on instantly" - a problem I thought Edison had cracked - so only about 15 years sitting in semi-darkness imposed on us by scientific illiterates who take George Monbiot seriously and think Karl Popper is a vaguely funny name (possibly a gay porn star?) Because CO2 poisoning is soooo much more lethal than mercury poisoning.
    Did you actually read what I wrote?
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    MikeK said:

    http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/

    A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.

    Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.
    Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
    Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
    Yep. They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) and use a lot less power. Don't tell me kippers are living in the past again? Actually I have not bought any recently but noticed that Homebase B&Q etc are piling them high so maybe they are selling cheap...
    I've replaced all my old bulbs mostly with LEDs (still have a few CFLs - and yes I'll take the old ones down to the recycling centre next time I go).
    You have to be careful buying ultra cheap Chinese LEDs on EBay, but from DIY shops should be high quality. My local B&Q has examples running so you can check the colour and brightness.
    As far as UKIP is concerned, they would try to find any drawback that they can with anything that the EU is championing.
    Anyone who can say

    "They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) "
    "You have to be careful buying ultra cheap Chinese LEDs on EBay, but from DIY shops should be high quality."

    Can also say

    "Global warming is a real threat to the planet (supposedly)."
    "Anything written by George Monbiot should be high quality."

    If you can be spoon-fed about how long a light bulb will last and how much it cost to make (hint: where do you think B&Q LEDs are made? Handcrafted in the West Country?), what on earth makes you think you are intellectually equipped to judge whether any scientific proposition about anything is true or false?

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    Poor CON polls lead to 2 seat drop on @SportingIndex http://goo.gl/0sfA2E spreads
    Mid-points
    LAB 278+2
    CON 282-2
    LD 27.5
    UKIP
    SNP 37
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Ishmael_X said:

    MikeK said:

    http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/

    A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.

    Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.
    Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
    Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
    Yep. They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) and use a lot less power. Don't tell me kippers are living in the past again? Actually I have not bought any recently but noticed that Homebase B&Q etc are piling them high so maybe they are selling cheap...
    You spend a lot of time comparison shopping in "Homebase B&Q etc"? (Love the "etc"). I thought it was Ukip supporters who had disappointing lives.
    I'm glad you love the 'etc'. Only the other day I had recourse to nip into my local discount car and cycle accessory store next door to my local but somewhat troubled value supermarket and thought I would also have a look round the adjacent new discount home goods store. B&M is expanding. To be honest I did not see any led bulbs but as we are stocked up I was not looking. But you have me bang to rights, just before Christmas I was in Currys PC World as well, prices looked good, but their clever light displays seemed far too upmarket for me. I've managed to keep my wife out of Oak FurnitureLand so far, but I'm not keeping my fingers crossed.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    Flightpath Of course the US has a constitutional amendment system so that if the President and Congress agree sufficiently not even the Supreme Court can overturn an amendment with a 2/3 majority
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    taffys said:

    What's striking is the complete lack of panic amongst senior tories in the face of rank polling. There are no major reports of dissent, disquiet, frustration etc.

    Could the tories have something up their sleeves?? Budget??

    You raise an interesting point. Could it be because most of those in marginal seats won them last time and are therefore not as fearful of losing their jobs as they would be if they had been in situ for 10+ years?
    The problem for the CON leadership is like with Labour last time. Almost all the top ministers are in safe seats. Only one that isn't is Nicky Morgan. It gives to a very different view of the world.

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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    MikeK said:

    http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/

    A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.

    Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.
    Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
    Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
    Oh wonderful, we are allowed light bulbs which "come on instantly" - a problem I thought Edison had cracked - so only about 15 years sitting in semi-darkness imposed on us by scientific illiterates who take George Monbiot seriously and think Karl Popper is a vaguely funny name (possibly a gay porn star?) Because CO2 poisoning is soooo much more lethal than mercury poisoning.
    Did you actually read what I wrote?
    Yes, where do you think I got the words "come on instantly"?

    Idiotic (your word) question.
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steady
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,360



    And hold the front page - owning up to the best prospect of a Labour minority govt, Socialist candidate says it would be wrong to vote it down.

    Interesting that you interpreted my comment on the LibDem choices as only relating to a Labour minority government. Have you given up on a Tory one? Perhaps you're right. :-)

    My impression from scattered reports is that Tory commitment is varying a good deal - some are working very hard, others not a lot. Tory sources say that several marginal MPs have been told that there will be a haven for them in the Lords if necessary - not sure if that's motivating them to try harder (so as to make sure of favour) or to relax.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Doesn't this run completely counter to OGH's fond belief that Labour voters will support the LibDems where it matters?
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    For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steady
    Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.
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    Poor CON polls lead to 2 seat drop on @SportingIndex http://goo.gl/0sfA2E spreads
    Mid-points
    LAB 278+2
    CON 282-2
    LD 27.5
    UKIP
    SNP 37

    It's the only major GE market to have shown a significant drop, Mike, and even so it's not much of one in the circumstances.

    There is now a quite substantial mismatch between what the betting markets and the polls are telling us. Time for one of your celebrated threads on the possible reasons for the discrepancy?!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Bugger, New Thread Curse!

    Charles said:
    » show previous quotes

    Out of interest, why do they structure it like that? I'd have thought that a standard shift pattern would make more sense, surely? Obviously there'd need to be some flex because you're not going to clock off in the middle of fighting a fire, but it does appear that you have a fairly odd system in place.


    Because it cuts the number of staff required by 40%, saving a fortune in wages and pension contributions. There is an initial capital outlay to upgrade station facilities, but that gets classed as investment. The system is called Day Crewing Plus, and a lot of brigades are bringing it in.
    From 08:00 to 20:00, it's a normal workday, but outside those times, you're on duty, but not actively doing any work related stuff-no paperwork, no computer work, no equipment testing, lectures or training. You can retire to your room, and watch TV, or cook in the communal kitchen. Attending incidents during downtime adds the accrued hours onto the end of your downtime. You can't leave the station, but family can visit and even stay the night, but, to be honest, once the novelty has worn off, not many do.
    It's paid at a bonus of 27%, to account for the longer hours.

    Ok, makes sense.

    So they cut the staff by 40% and increase wages by 27%. Someone's doing well out of that system...
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    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    Charles said:

    Doesn't this run completely counter to OGH's fond belief that Labour voters will support the LibDems where it matters?

    I think that was then, and this is now...
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    Lab lead 1.5%


    That has been about the average lead since October hasn't it?
    Since the end of October, it's been 1.4% on average
    You mean there may not be a Crossover....not now, not ever??!!!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MP_SE said:

    Interesting to see Tory voters would prefer a coalition with the Lib Dems instead of UKIP. Any ideas as to why this is? The Lib Dems are on the completely opposite end of the political spectrum.

    Because those people who still support the Tories rather like the Coalition.

    While those who don't like the LibDems have p1ssed off the UKIP
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited February 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Flightpath Of course the US has a constitutional amendment system so that if the President and Congress agree sufficiently not even the Supreme Court can overturn an amendment with a 2/3 majority

    And the Supreme Court can overrule its own previous decisions. None of which makes the US System perfect or brilliant for us.
    The USA is of course a vast continental wide federal democracy of 50 States or Commonwealths. It has to be governed somehow. I like America.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    Danny
    She apparently knew nothing of politics just a few years ago but decided she wanted to make a difference and looked at the parties and decided she'd become a Conservative despite all her family being Labour

    That's what happen when Labour people look at the parties with an unjaundiced eye
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    For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steady
    Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.
    That's it then, the game is up.

    Not much point in us voting
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Smarmeron said:

    @Stark_Dawning
    There was plenty of evidence, and none of it would have ever come to light had the journalists not exposed it to the world.
    The tax office held the information, and decided what was to be done with it, and apparently it had no interest in law breakers being punished in the courts, or indeed named.

    Well it all comes down to evidence. You can't use stolen information as the primary source without corroboration. And tax evasion, by it's very nature, relies on nothing being written down.

    HMRC took 3 files to the CPS, who decided only 1 had a reasonable chance of success.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steady
    Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.
    That's it then, the game is up.

    Not much point in us voting
    Agreed. No trend ever reverses or even levels out. Never. Especially not one with two whole data points in it.

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    AFD have made it into the Hamburg Land, today, and the FPD have retained their seats. The loser was the CDU, who suffered a 5.5% swing to AFD.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Charles said:

    MP_SE said:

    Interesting to see Tory voters would prefer a coalition with the Lib Dems instead of UKIP. Any ideas as to why this is? The Lib Dems are on the completely opposite end of the political spectrum.

    Because those people who still support the Tories rather like the Coalition.

    While those who don't like the LibDems have p1ssed off the UKIP
    Its interesting don't you think that, in the run up to the election, the BBC chooses to serialise a novel ("more than 500 pages of relentless socialist manifesto masquerading as literature") by a millionaire Labour donor who despises the coalition.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,360
    update from scanning the Danish news: the Danish press say the police are satisfied that the man (Omar El-Hussein) they killed in an exchange of fire this morning was the murderer.

    He was a Danish-born man recently released from prison where he'd been serving a sentence for grevious bodily harm (he stabbed someone on the metro). He doesn't appear to have a history of great interest in Islam or Syria/Iraq etc.: rather, he has a record of serious personal violence, with involvement in non-political gang activity. They do think it's quite possibly a copycat action emulating the Paris one: they see him as someone who liked high-profile violence and attention. They're continuing to search premises and contacts in case others were involved, though at present he seems to have been a lone wolf.

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927

    For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steady
    Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.
    I've been struck by how resilient the UKIP vote has been. Bar MORI, they've polled 13-16% this week, which means 15-17% in England. And, in the campaign, they'll be treated as a major party.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy Well, so what, regardless of potential by-election defeats if there is no deal with the LDs and Labour needs them for a majority in effect we would get no government at all!

    Blame the Fixed Parliament Act for creating a possibility of a government not having control of parliament.
    However the Act can be abolished.
    No government would suit me fine. Far too many authoritarian acts passed in the last twenty years. Parliament needs to return to its proper purpose of controlling the government, not being the government.
    That's an interesting thought which I agree, it is the american system of government.
    The House of Commons will degenerate into the US Congress, we can have a government which can't pass legislation, like in America.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-4FQAov2xI
    The US President can veto bills can't he? And of course he gets bills passed by spreading pork and all and sundry sell their vote to anybody for pork. An unelected supreme court can dictate the law.
    Look at the out of control US spending over the years.
    This is a good system?
    The Supreme Court cannot dictate or make laws, only interpret those laws passed by Congress. The President proposes a budget, but it is passed into law by Congress, so with the GOP controlling both Houses, he won't get what he wants, but what Congress is willing to give him. There will be some compromises, as the GOP don't have the 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a filibuster, so will have to placate at least 6 Dems or Independents.

    Earmarks for 'for-profits' were banned in 2010, and prior to that made up less than 1% of the budget.

    The President may veto bills and, as currently constituted, the GOP could not overturn the veto without at least 13 Dem and Ind senators voting with them.

    Since the budget deal, not sure that you can say that USG spending is out of control. The deficit has fallen from $1.3 trillion in 2011 to $483 billion tin 2014. How does the UK's performance compare to this?
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    Sean_F said:

    For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steady
    Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.
    I've been struck by how resilient the UKIP vote has been. Bar MORI, they've polled 13-16% this week, which means 15-17% in England. And, in the campaign, they'll be treated as a major party.
    If I were a Kipper, I'd be pretty happy.

    For a start, UKIP are streets ahead of where most people thought they would be by now. And they can hope to improve nearer the election when they will quite naturally be more in the public eye. For the moment they're going through a quiet spell, but they've had no major problems, yet have dropped back very little.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Charles
    You would wonder why HSBC felt the need to apologise in the British press over just one count of wrongdoing.?...
    But it does show how upright and honest our wealthy are, compared to "Johnny Foreigner" old chap.
    Glad you cleared it all up for me.
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    Good evening, everyone.

    Rather enjoyed Top Gear tonight. Margot Robbie is delightful.

    In more important news, the second episode of Zodiac Eclipse is now up, and can be read here: http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-distress/
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    update from scanning the Danish news: the Danish press say the police are satisfied that the man (Omar El-Hussein) they killed in an exchange of fire this morning was the murderer.

    He was a Danish-born man recently released from prison where he'd been serving a sentence for grevious bodily harm (he stabbed someone on the metro). He doesn't appear to have a history of great interest in Islam or Syria/Iraq etc.: rather, he has a record of serious personal violence, with involvement in non-political gang activity. They do think it's quite possibly a copycat action emulating the Paris one: they see him as someone who liked high-profile violence and attention. They're continuing to search premises and contacts in case others were involved, though at present he seems to have been a lone wolf.

    Was he a Muslim?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,988

    update from scanning the Danish news: the Danish press say the police are satisfied that the man (Omar El-Hussein) they killed in an exchange of fire this morning was the murderer.

    He was a Danish-born man recently released from prison where he'd been serving a sentence for grevious bodily harm (he stabbed someone on the metro). He doesn't appear to have a history of great interest in Islam or Syria/Iraq etc.: rather, he has a record of serious personal violence, with involvement in non-political gang activity. They do think it's quite possibly a copycat action emulating the Paris one: they see him as someone who liked high-profile violence and attention. They're continuing to search premises and contacts in case others were involved, though at present he seems to have been a lone wolf.

    Why was that festival in Germany cancelled Nick?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    Had two very different leaflets from LDs on Friday and Saturday in the post. Friday's was addressed to my wife.

    "Lib Dems fighting to make things fairer. Remember Labour's Record" - "Nearly bankrupted Britain, Locked up Child Migrants. Hiked taxes for the low paid. Middle East still in crisis after Iraq War."

    Lib Dems trying to encourage my wife to vote LD and not wander off to vote Labour.

    On Saturday I had something very different.

    "I'm afraid there's no money left ...would you REALLY risk letting this happen again?"

    Has highly unflattering photos of The Two Eds.

    If Labour Win in May the Economy will be at risk ...only a Lib Dem vote will deliver a stronger economy."

    Lib Dems trying to get me to vote for them to keep Labour out. But can the Yellow Peril be trusted by right of centre voters not to work with Labour? My leaflet implies that the real enemy are Labour, and to keep them out, I should back them.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    edited February 2015
    SeanF Looks like post Greece Merkel is facing her own UKIP problem, maybe she will be able to listen to Cameron's concerns on EU reform a bit more as a result. Looks like the FDP have scraped back into parliament which will provide some comfort and the SPD has lost its majority and will likely do a deal with Die Linke
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    edited February 2015
    Flightpath Indeed
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927

    Good evening, everyone.

    Rather enjoyed Top Gear tonight. Margot Robbie is delightful.

    In more important news, the second episode of Zodiac Eclipse is now up, and can be read here: http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-distress/

    Season 4 of Game of Thrones comes out on DVD tomorrow.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927

    Sean_F said:

    For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steady
    Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.
    I've been struck by how resilient the UKIP vote has been. Bar MORI, they've polled 13-16% this week, which means 15-17% in England. And, in the campaign, they'll be treated as a major party.
    If I were a Kipper, I'd be pretty happy.

    For a start, UKIP are streets ahead of where most people thought they would be by now. And they can hope to improve nearer the election when they will quite naturally be more in the public eye. For the moment they're going through a quiet spell, but they've had no major problems, yet have dropped back very little.
    12 months ago, I'd have expected UKIP to be polling below 10% at this point.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Sean_F said:

    For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steady
    Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.
    I've been struck by how resilient the UKIP vote has been. Bar MORI, they've polled 13-16% this week, which means 15-17% in England. And, in the campaign, they'll be treated as a major party.
    It has been unusually quiet as far as negative UKIP stories go.

    I will put money on a lot of papers sitting on what they consider dirt and releasing it a few weeks before the election. They will also recycle all of the old stories for good measure.

    I think 15% is achievable, they might shed a few points as a result of people voting tactically but should gain a few with the increased coverage thanks to them being labelled a major political party.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Sean_F said:

    For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steady
    Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.
    I've been struck by how resilient the UKIP vote has been. Bar MORI, they've polled 13-16% this week, which means 15-17% in England. And, in the campaign, they'll be treated as a major party.
    I reckon MORI was a low outlier for UKIP.
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    Mr. F, I am acutely aware of this. Huzzah!

    Hope it's delivered tomorrow, but whether it is or not I shall attempt to ration it in accordance with the principles of Behaviourism, as pioneered by BF Skinner.
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    Sean_F said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    Rather enjoyed Top Gear tonight. Margot Robbie is delightful.

    In more important news, the second episode of Zodiac Eclipse is now up, and can be read here: http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-distress/

    Season 4 of Game of Thrones comes out on DVD tomorrow.
    Have they made it to Kings Langley yet?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290

    "Where is the second Green coming from ? Norwich South ? "

    Or maybe Bristol West.

    Williams LD 48% of vote.
    Green 3.8% of vote.
    Labour had 27% of vote - would be a huge huge sensation if the Greens won.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/a73.stm

    Was a letter in The Bristol Posts, from a Lab councillor last week worried that a Green surge would stop Labour wining the seat.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    I think it should be Mega Polling Monday tomorrow with polls from Populus, The Good Lord Amen, ICM and YouGov!!!!!!

    #megapollingmonday
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    Mr. England, King's Landing*.

    Also, please do avoid spoilers.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited February 2015

    Mr. F, I am acutely aware of this. Huzzah!

    Hope it's delivered tomorrow, but whether it is or not I shall attempt to ration it in accordance with the principles of Behaviourism, as pioneered by BF Skinner.

    They delivered season 3 on the release date so there is a good chance yours will arrive tomorrow.

    I forgot when it was being released so will be at the mercy of super saver delivery. One episode a week is what I will ration myself to.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    update from scanning the Danish news: the Danish press say the police are satisfied that the man (Omar El-Hussein) they killed in an exchange of fire this morning was the murderer.

    He was a Danish-born man recently released from prison where he'd been serving a sentence for grevious bodily harm (he stabbed someone on the metro). He doesn't appear to have a history of great interest in Islam or Syria/Iraq etc.: rather, he has a record of serious personal violence, with involvement in non-political gang activity. They do think it's quite possibly a copycat action emulating the Paris one: they see him as someone who liked high-profile violence and attention. They're continuing to search premises and contacts in case others were involved, though at present he seems to have been a lone wolf.

    Another lone wolf, eh?
    Lots of them around these days, it seems.
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    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steady
    Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.
    I've been struck by how resilient the UKIP vote has been. Bar MORI, they've polled 13-16% this week, which means 15-17% in England. And, in the campaign, they'll be treated as a major party.
    If I were a Kipper, I'd be pretty happy.

    For a start, UKIP are streets ahead of where most people thought they would be by now. And they can hope to improve nearer the election when they will quite naturally be more in the public eye. For the moment they're going through a quiet spell, but they've had no major problems, yet have dropped back very little.
    12 months ago, I'd have expected UKIP to be polling below 10% at this point.
    As recently as May 2014 I was able to back them to win at least one seat at the GE at odds of 5/6.

    They now have two MPs and every chance of adding more in May. I guess we'll both be very pleased if they do, though for rather different reasons.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    MTimT said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy Well, so what, regardless of potential by-election defeats if there is no deal with the LDs and Labour needs them for a majority in effect we would get no government at all!

    Blame the Fixed Parliament Act for creating a possibility of a government not having control of parliament.
    However the Act can be abolished.
    No government would suit me fine. Far too many authoritarian acts passed in the last twenty years. Parliament needs to return to its proper purpose of controlling the government, not being the government.
    That's an interesting thought which I agree, it is the american system of government.
    The House of Commons will degenerate into the US Congress, we can have a government which can't pass legislation, like in America.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-4FQAov2xI
    The US President can veto bills can't he? And of course he gets bills passed by spreading pork and all and sundry sell their vote to anybody for pork. An unelected supreme court can dictate the law.
    Look at the out of control US spending over the years.
    This is a good system?
    The Supreme Court cannot dictate or make laws, only interpret those laws passed by Congress. The President proposes a budget, but it is passed into law by Congress, so with the GOP controlling both Houses, he won't get what he wants, but what Congress is willing to give him. There will be some compromises, as the GOP don't have the 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a filibuster, so will have to placate at least 6 Dems or Independents.

    Earmarks for 'for-profits' were banned in 2010, and prior to that made up less than 1% of the budget.

    The President may veto bills and, as currently constituted, the GOP could not overturn the veto without at least 13 Dem and Ind senators voting with them.

    Since the budget deal, not sure that you can say that USG spending is out of control. The deficit has fallen from $1.3 trillion in 2011 to $483 billion tin 2014. How does the UK's performance compare to this?
    'since the budget deal'? Thats the point. The budget needed a deal, it was too high. Our own govt can claim it has halved the deficit, but what I was talking about was spending and the pork that gets built in to spending.
    As far as our spending goes you can look at the figures for the last 5 years and look at the ones for the last 10 of Labours to see that it has been successful in controlling spending. Labour increased spending over 10 years by 50%.
    I'm not saying the USA is bad, I am not against the USA. But its system is far from perfect - but they have the problems of their country and its constitution to live with.
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