politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour are currently the largest recipients of tactical vot
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I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.0
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Another day down - another day without a breakthrough for the Tories - another day closer to Ed Miliband being PM.
I wonder if the press will suddenly panic and go into reverse. Realise the inevitable and try and buy some favours from Ed?0 -
Clearly there was no wrongdoing.Smarmeron said:@Cyclefree
Well, there appears to have been nothing wrong with the HMRC in 2011, indeed, these lines prove the point
"The report is based on partial information, inaccurate opinion and some misunderstanding of facts," the spokesman said.
"The idea Dave Hartnett cuts a large tax bill in return for a glass of wine and a cheese sandwich is just plain nonsense.
"If he was interested in feathering his nest he would have accepted one of the many highly lucrative offers of work he regularly receives from the private sector," the spokesman added."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16253205
Hartnett? I am sure I have heard that name recently, I wonder how he is getting on these days?
"If he was interested in feathering his nest he would have accepted one of the many highly lucrative offers of work he regularly receives from the private sector," the spokesman added."
I would further add, it is purely coincedental !!
http://www.theweek.co.uk/business/tax-avoidance/53256/dave-hartnett-HMRC-Deloitte0 -
Doubt itIOS said:Another day down - another day without a breakthrough for the Tories - another day closer to Ed Miliband being PM.
I wonder if the press will suddenly panic and go into reverse. Realise the inevitable and try and buy some favours from Ed?
82 more days of EIC
Then EICIPM so we will see if he is crap or not.
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Unionists Alfie, not Protestants.alfie said:I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.
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Conservatives can NOT count on the DUP, from Dodds himself:Y0kel said:
Unionists Alfie, not Protestants.alfie said:I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.
“We can do business with either of the two leaders, either Ed Miliband or David Cameron, and we will obviously judge what’s in the best interests of the United Kingdom as a whole,” the North Belfast MP told me. “And obviously we’ll also be looking at it from the point of view of the constituencies that we represent in Northern Ireland as a whole. Unionism has worked in the past with Labour governments and we’ve worked in the past with Conservative governments back in the 70s. Indeed, the Ulster Unionist Party propped up the Callaghan administration. But it remains to be seen. We are certainly not in the pocket of either party and we’re certainly in a position where we’re able to negotiate with both of them.”0 -
Whoever puts the towel on the bench first. Red means Labour, Blue.............Speedy said:
Can you remind me who is the PM in case there is no majority with the Fixed Parliament Act?HYUFD said:Of course if no deal could be reached the alternative would be a minority government on the Harper model in Canada from 2006-2011, with deals reached with parties one bill at a time
I got confused a bit.0 -
It means no such thing! The bills will be paid and things will be signed off, just as they were in Belgium last year with no government. The executive is a mere passing fad. The civil service is eternal.HYUFD said:Geoff M No government means no money being paid for the army, police, schools, hospitals, welfare etc no new laws, yes, but no decisions being made either on domestic or foreign policy
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For those wit missed it this morning!
It's that time of the week again!
ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week), 15th Feb - 11 polls with total sample 12,946
Labour lead 1.5%, highest for four weeks!
LibDem lead over Greens 1.3%, highest for five weeks!
Lab 33.9 (+0.4)
Con 32.4 (+0.3)
UKIP 14.2 (-0.6)
LD 7.5 (+0.1)
Green 6.2 (-0.4)
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Evening all
It would be hugely foolish to consider the forthcoming election a done deal even after what has been a difficult week for the Conservatives. They are still very much in the game and while the polls show the magnitude of the task no one should write them off at this point.
The observation I would make is the Conservatives are not going out to make any friends anywhere and that seems a high-risk strategy given the numbers. Given the likelihood of a close finish the odd few seats here and there are going to matter and while Lab-SNP looks the main game in town it is far from the only permutation.
Perhaps the Coalition Experience has been more scarring than I suppose but I sense no appetite among Tories for anything approaching a repeat performance so it seems that if the anti-Conservative numbers stack up the Tories will go into Opposition.
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I remember there was a Panorama prior to one election [ I cannot remember which ] in which a DUP MP made it clear that he could not explain to his working class constituents that he was supporting a Tory government. DUP is not UUP.Pulpstar said:
Conservatives can NOT count on the DUP, from Dodds himself:Y0kel said:
Unionists Alfie, not Protestants.alfie said:I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.
“We can do business with either of the two leaders, either Ed Miliband or David Cameron, and we will obviously judge what’s in the best interests of the United Kingdom as a whole,” the North Belfast MP told me. “And obviously we’ll also be looking at it from the point of view of the constituencies that we represent in Northern Ireland as a whole. Unionism has worked in the past with Labour governments and we’ve worked in the past with Conservative governments back in the 70s. Indeed, the Ulster Unionist Party propped up the Callaghan administration. But it remains to be seen. We are certainly not in the pocket of either party and we’re certainly in a position where we’re able to negotiate with both of them.”0 -
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Pulpstar Of course not, but if the Tories are the largest party then the DUP would obviously be more likely to support them, if Labour, Miliband0
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Labour leads in ELBOW since August. This week (w/e 15th February) 1.5%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5670394495701073930 -
Where is the second Green coming from ? Norwich South ?Pulpstar said:
Lab minority with c&s from SNP, PC, SDLPbigjohnowls said:Biggest seat lead for LAB with these for a while
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
EICIPM (2.28 BETFAIR)0 -
The area in which the DUP are very right wing is on social issues, on the economy/welfare etc. they'd have more in common with Labour, especially with the importance of the public sector in Northern Ireland.surbiton said:
I remember there was a Panorama prior to one election [ I cannot remember which ] in which a DUP MP made it clear that he could not explain to his working class constituents that he was supporting a Tory government. DUP is not UUP.Pulpstar said:
Conservatives can NOT count on the DUP, from Dodds himself:Y0kel said:
Unionists Alfie, not Protestants.alfie said:I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.
“We can do business with either of the two leaders, either Ed Miliband or David Cameron, and we will obviously judge what’s in the best interests of the United Kingdom as a whole,” the North Belfast MP told me. “And obviously we’ll also be looking at it from the point of view of the constituencies that we represent in Northern Ireland as a whole. Unionism has worked in the past with Labour governments and we’ve worked in the past with Conservative governments back in the 70s. Indeed, the Ulster Unionist Party propped up the Callaghan administration. But it remains to be seen. We are certainly not in the pocket of either party and we’re certainly in a position where we’re able to negotiate with both of them.”
Labour probably couldn't do a deal with them because of their aforementioned social conservatism though.0 -
Lab lead 1.5%Sunil_Prasannan said:In graphical form:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184
That has been about the average lead since October hasn't it?0 -
Dunno, Labour aren't in contention for any seats in NI, I expect the DUP's demands will be less ideological and more material than say the SNP or Lib Dems. I think the DUP can do a deal with either CON or LABArtist said:
The area in which the DUP are very right wing is on social issues, on the economy/welfare etc. they'd have more in common with Labour, especially with the importance of the public sector in Northern Ireland.surbiton said:
I remember there was a Panorama prior to one election [ I cannot remember which ] in which a DUP MP made it clear that he could not explain to his working class constituents that he was supporting a Tory government. DUP is not UUP.Pulpstar said:
Conservatives can NOT count on the DUP, from Dodds himself:Y0kel said:
Unionists Alfie, not Protestants.alfie said:I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.
“We can do business with either of the two leaders, either Ed Miliband or David Cameron, and we will obviously judge what’s in the best interests of the United Kingdom as a whole,” the North Belfast MP told me. “And obviously we’ll also be looking at it from the point of view of the constituencies that we represent in Northern Ireland as a whole. Unionism has worked in the past with Labour governments and we’ve worked in the past with Conservative governments back in the 70s. Indeed, the Ulster Unionist Party propped up the Callaghan administration. But it remains to be seen. We are certainly not in the pocket of either party and we’re certainly in a position where we’re able to negotiate with both of them.”
Labour probably couldn't do a deal with them because of their aforementioned social conservatism though.0 -
However, many of the No Go areas socially like Gay rights, Abortion etc. , there is very little difference between all the major UK parties including SNP.Artist said:
The area in which the DUP are very right wing is on social issues, on the economy/welfare etc. they'd have more in common with Labour, especially with the importance of the public sector in Northern Ireland.surbiton said:
I remember there was a Panorama prior to one election [ I cannot remember which ] in which a DUP MP made it clear that he could not explain to his working class constituents that he was supporting a Tory government. DUP is not UUP.Pulpstar said:
Conservatives can NOT count on the DUP, from Dodds himself:Y0kel said:
Unionists Alfie, not Protestants.alfie said:I really cannot see the Lib Dems getting 20 seats, obviously the pollsters have greater knowledge than I. It is looking as though the Tories who have massive resources and 90% of the media on their side will form another minority government, possibly with the Northern Ireland protestants and the said desperate Dems providing Clegg can be the royal warden of the privies.
“We can do business with either of the two leaders, either Ed Miliband or David Cameron, and we will obviously judge what’s in the best interests of the United Kingdom as a whole,” the North Belfast MP told me. “And obviously we’ll also be looking at it from the point of view of the constituencies that we represent in Northern Ireland as a whole. Unionism has worked in the past with Labour governments and we’ve worked in the past with Conservative governments back in the 70s. Indeed, the Ulster Unionist Party propped up the Callaghan administration. But it remains to be seen. We are certainly not in the pocket of either party and we’re certainly in a position where we’re able to negotiate with both of them.”
Labour probably couldn't do a deal with them because of their aforementioned social conservatism though.0 -
From Dodds' interview sounds like he gets on better with Miliband rather than Cameron. Clegg of course is the opposite but doubt he'll last as the Lib Dem leader after the GE if they get less than 30 seats.0
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GeoffM But the decisions on how it is going to be paid for will be left in the air! Civil servants are not too bothered about that0
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It is true that a certificate of conviction is conclusive evidence in defamation proceedings that the claimant committed the offence in question (Civil Evidence Act 1968, s. 13). The fact, however, that the claimant has not been convicted of an offence will not negative a defence of truth (Defamation Act 2013, s. 2). Moreover, even if an allegation is untrue, provided it relates to the public interest and the defendant reasonably believed its publication was in the public interest, he will have a complete defence to an action for defamation (2013 Act, s. 4). In short, you are talking nonsense.Smarmeron said:Unfortunately, even if you have cast iron evidence that someone had broken the law, you would be sued if you mentioned their name,
As long as they agree on a settlement, they are granted immunity from prosecution, and without a court case there can be no guilt.
Probably easier to write it off as a left wing conspiracy though, it saves thinking.0 -
Because numerous studies have shown that nothing interesting ever happens in any given period of 82 days, especially when the period ends with GE day?IOS said:Another day down - another day without a breakthrough for the Tories - another day closer to Ed Miliband being PM.
I wonder if the press will suddenly panic and go into reverse. Realise the inevitable and try and buy some favours from Ed?
Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be
Que Sera, Sera
So chill.0 -
Well, I'm just going by their stated reason cited by Mike: "They will say that the problems facing country so great that stable government a necessity." To use that as a reason to vote down any government if they had the chance would be eccentric.Speedy said:
Who said the next government will be stable?NickPalmer said:
Interesting, hadn't seen that. But what does "nothing" mean exactly? In practice either Miliband or Cameron will seek a vote of confidence. Will they vote against both if they're not offered seats in the Cabinet? A bit unpromising to sell that as a strategy for stable government.MikeSmithson said:
The LDs have made it clear that they won't do "supply & confidence" with either LAB or CON. It is coalition or nothing if another party wants its support. They will say that the problems facing country so great that stable government a necessity.
It is a good opening negotiating position
It has all the provisions of being as dysfunctional as a typical american government.
Incidentally, I think the tax avoidance thing has probably peaked now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Labour lead settling back to the 0-1 range again. But my bet with Audrey that we shan't see a Tory lead of 7 (which is what they need to hold Broxtowe, other things being equal) is looking good. Not sure how I'll collect if she's banned though!
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Stodge If the Tories are largest party Cameron will be PM, either in a minority government, a confidence or supply arrangement or another coalition.
Pulpstar Regardless of who they like personally the LDs and DUP will deal with the largest party first, the SNP, Greens and Plaid and SDLP and Respect only with Labour, UKIP with the Tories solely on the basis of an early EU referendum0 -
@Life_ina_market_town
I asked about admissible evidence on here a day or so ago, and from the only reply I had, it was that basically only that which would stand up in a criminal court would be acceptable.
I am glad to be corrected.
However, I will leave any possible suing and litigation to others with more resources than I have.0 -
Reading this thread I sense there are a number of labour backers with very under water positions.
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Ho ho ho - 'tax avoidance thing has peaked' just as Labour are caught out as being stupendous hypocrites. And this is before we get to cash for honours. Well there is is, yet another surprise from Mr Palmer.NickPalmer said:
Well, I'm just going by their stated reason cited by Mike: "They will say that the problems facing country so great that stable government a necessity." To use that as a reason to vote down any government if they had the chance would be eccentric.Speedy said:
Who said the next government will be stable?NickPalmer said:
Interesting, hadn't seen that. But what does "nothing" mean exactly? In practice either Miliband or Cameron will seek a vote of confidence. Will they vote against both if they're not offered seats in the Cabinet? A bit unpromising to sell that as a strategy for stable government.MikeSmithson said:
The LDs have made it clear that they won't do "supply & confidence" with either LAB or CON. It is coalition or nothing if another party wants its support. They will say that the problems facing country so great that stable government a necessity.
It is a good opening negotiating position
It has all the provisions of being as dysfunctional as a typical american government.
Incidentally, I think the tax avoidance thing has probably peaked now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Labour lead settling back to the 0-1 range again. But my bet with Audrey that we shan't see a Tory lead of 7 (which is what they need to hold Broxtowe, other things being equal) is looking good. Not sure how I'll collect if she's banned though!
And hold the front page - owning up to the best prospect of a Labour minority govt, Socialist candidate says it would be wrong to vote it down. Just what are the great problems facing the next minority govt that it must not be voted down? Can it be falling deficit, falling inflation, rising employment, controlled spending, reformed welfare and pensions? All issues the last big majority socialist govt either ignored or created.
The last labour govt with a big majority double spending at constant prices in 10 years, with no attempt to raise the revenue to pay for it all.
The nerve of it all. Lets put our faith in the good people of Broxtowe.0 -
Anna Soubry was very good on last weeks Any Questions. Broxtowe should think twice before they reject an impressive MP who's actually gone places in her short time as their representative.Flightpath said:
Ho ho ho - 'tax avoidance thing has peaked' just as Labour are caught out as being stupendous hypocrites. And this is before we get to cash for honours. Well there is is, yet another surprise from Mr Palmer.NickPalmer said:
Well, I'm just going by their stated reason cited by Mike: "They will say that the problems facing country so great that stable government a necessity." To use that as a reason to vote down any government if they had the chance would be eccentric.Speedy said:
Who said the next government will be stable?NickPalmer said:
Interesting, hadn't seen that. But what does "nothing" mean exactly? In practice either Miliband or Cameron will seek a vote of confidence. Will they vote against both if they're not offered seats in the Cabinet? A bit unpromising to sell that as a strategy for stable government.MikeSmithson said:
The LDs have made it clear that they won't do "supply & confidence" with either LAB or CON. It is coalition or nothing if another party wants its support. They will say that the problems facing country so great that stable government a necessity.
It is a good opening negotiating position
It has all the provisions of being as dysfunctional as a typical american government.
Incidentally, I think the tax avoidance thing has probably peaked now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Labour lead settling back to the 0-1 range again. But my bet with Audrey that we shan't see a Tory lead of 7 (which is what they need to hold Broxtowe, other things being equal) is looking good. Not sure how I'll collect if she's banned though!
And hold the front page - owning up to the best prospect of a Labour minority govt, Socialist candidate says it would be wrong to vote it down. Just what are the great problems facing the next minority govt that it must not be voted down? Can it be falling deficit, falling inflation, rising employment, controlled spending, reformed welfare and pensions? All issues the last big majority socialist govt either ignored or created.
The last labour govt with a big majority double spending at constant prices in 10 years, with no attempt to raise the revenue to pay for it all.
The nerve of it all. Lets put our faith in the good people of Broxtowe.0 -
What's striking is the complete lack of panic amongst senior tories in the face of rank polling. There are no major reports of dissent, disquiet, frustration etc.
Could the tories have something up their sleeves?? Budget??0 -
If Con and Lab are effectively level then I feel LD will be inclined to go with Lab.
However if Con + LD would be enough for a majority (with DUP support) whereas it would require Lab + LD + SNP for a majority then I feel certain LD would go with Con.
I can't imagine LD preferring an option which also required SNP support - because the last thing on earth they will want is to have to start negotiating with the SNP.
So for Cameron to remain PM at worst he needs something like:
Con 285
Lab 275
LD 30
SNP 40
So Con 285 + LD 30 + DUP 8 = 323.0 -
I feel sorry for the voters of Broxtowe. They have two very unsatisfactory candidates*Flightpath said:
The nerve of it all. Lets put our faith in the good people of Broxtowe.
*Other unsatisfactory candidates are available
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They could absteinMikeL said:If Con and Lab are effectively level then I feel LD will be inclined to go with Lab.
However if Con + LD would be enough for a majority (with DUP support) whereas it would require Lab + LD + SNP for a majority then I feel certain LD would go with Con.
I can't imagine LD preferring an option which also required SNP support - because the last thing on earth they will want is to have to start negotiating with the SNP.
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MikeK Has been reported elsewhere too
taffys Miliband is far from polling near the level he needs to be assured of a majority, the UKIP vote is still there to be squeezed, Labour will lose 20-30 seats in Scotland on present polling and the odd poll has the Tories ahead0 -
Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.MikeK said:http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/
A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.
Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.0 -
The US President can veto bills can't he? And of course he gets bills passed by spreading pork and all and sundry sell their vote to anybody for pork. An unelected supreme court can dictate the law.Speedy said:
That's an interesting thought which I agree, it is the american system of government.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
No government would suit me fine. Far too many authoritarian acts passed in the last twenty years. Parliament needs to return to its proper purpose of controlling the government, not being the government.Speedy said:
Blame the Fixed Parliament Act for creating a possibility of a government not having control of parliament.HYUFD said:Speedy Well, so what, regardless of potential by-election defeats if there is no deal with the LDs and Labour needs them for a majority in effect we would get no government at all!
However the Act can be abolished.
The House of Commons will degenerate into the US Congress, we can have a government which can't pass legislation, like in America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-4FQAov2xI
Look at the out of control US spending over the years.
This is a good system?0 -
You raise an interesting point. Could it be because most of those in marginal seats won them last time and are therefore not as fearful of losing their jobs as they would be if they had been in situ for 10+ years?taffys said:What's striking is the complete lack of panic amongst senior tories in the face of rank polling. There are no major reports of dissent, disquiet, frustration etc.
Could the tories have something up their sleeves?? Budget??
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If Clegg leads the LDs out of the torture of power, then it will be the promised land as far as most of them are concerned.Pulpstar said:From Dodds' interview sounds like he gets on better with Miliband rather than Cameron. Clegg of course is the opposite but doubt he'll last as the Lib Dem leader after the GE if they get less than 30 seats.
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"Where is the second Green coming from ? Norwich South ? "
Or maybe Bristol West.0 -
Yep. They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) and use a lot less power. Don't tell me kippers are living in the past again? Actually I have not bought any recently but noticed that Homebase B&Q etc are piling them high so maybe they are selling cheap...logical_song said:
Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.MikeK said:http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/
A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.
Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.0 -
Could it be because most of those in marginal seats won them last time and are therefore not as fearful of losing their jobs as they would be if they had been in situ for 10+ years?
I have read that the reception on the doorstep is not as bad as some MPs had expected. But then they would say that, wouldn't they?
For me the tories still really haven't got going. Dave is still being Prime Minister. I wonder if he will stake all on a huge blitz close to the vote.
It seemed to work for the Scottish referendum.0 -
Oh wonderful, we are allowed light bulbs which "come on instantly" - a problem I thought Edison had cracked - so only about 15 years sitting in semi-darkness imposed on us by scientific illiterates who take George Monbiot seriously and think Karl Popper is a vaguely funny name (possibly a gay porn star?) Because CO2 poisoning is soooo much more lethal than mercury poisoning.logical_song said:
Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.MikeK said:http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/
A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.
Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.0 -
Greens on their lowest score in ELBOW this year:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5670553289915146240 -
You spend a lot of time comparison shopping in "Homebase B&Q etc"? (Love the "etc"). I thought it was Ukip supporters who had disappointing lives.Flightpath said:
Yep. They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) and use a lot less power. Don't tell me kippers are living in the past again? Actually I have not bought any recently but noticed that Homebase B&Q etc are piling them high so maybe they are selling cheap...logical_song said:
Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.MikeK said:http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/
A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.
Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
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Since the end of October, it's been 1.4% on averagebigjohnowls said:
Lab lead 1.5%Sunil_Prasannan said:In graphical form:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184
That has been about the average lead since October hasn't it?
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I've replaced all my old bulbs mostly with LEDs (still have a few CFLs - and yes I'll take the old ones down to the recycling centre next time I go).Flightpath said:
Yep. They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) and use a lot less power. Don't tell me kippers are living in the past again? Actually I have not bought any recently but noticed that Homebase B&Q etc are piling them high so maybe they are selling cheap...logical_song said:
Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.MikeK said:http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/
A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.
Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
You have to be careful buying ultra cheap Chinese LEDs on EBay, but from DIY shops should be high quality. My local B&Q has examples running so you can check the colour and brightness.
As far as UKIP is concerned, they would try to find any drawback that they can with anything that the EU is championing.0 -
A friend had a watt meter, and we tested CFL bulbs, they used twice as much power than stated on the box, we also tested leds - they were spot on.0
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What a negative comment.Ishmael_X said:
You spend a lot of time comparison shopping in "Homebase B&Q etc"? (Love the "etc"). I thought it was Ukip supporters who had disappointing lives.Flightpath said:
Yep. They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) and use a lot less power. Don't tell me kippers are living in the past again? Actually I have not bought any recently but noticed that Homebase B&Q etc are piling them high so maybe they are selling cheap...logical_song said:
Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.MikeK said:http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/
A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.
Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.0 -
Cameron has a past record of leaving things to the last minute. That is unlikely to work at a GE.taffys said:I have read that the reception on the doorstep is not as bad as some MPs had expected. But then they would say that, wouldn't they?
For me the tories still really haven't got going. Dave is still being Prime Minister. I wonder if he will stake all on a huge blitz close to the vote.
It seemed to work for the Scottish referendum.
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My bill has certainly gone down. It's false economy to stick with 19th century technology.PAW said:A friend had a watt meter, and we tested CFL bulbs, they used twice as much power than stated on the box, we also tested leds - they were spot on.
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Did you actually read what I wrote?Ishmael_X said:
Oh wonderful, we are allowed light bulbs which "come on instantly" - a problem I thought Edison had cracked - so only about 15 years sitting in semi-darkness imposed on us by scientific illiterates who take George Monbiot seriously and think Karl Popper is a vaguely funny name (possibly a gay porn star?) Because CO2 poisoning is soooo much more lethal than mercury poisoning.logical_song said:
Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.MikeK said:http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/
A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.
Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.0 -
Anyone who can saylogical_song said:
I've replaced all my old bulbs mostly with LEDs (still have a few CFLs - and yes I'll take the old ones down to the recycling centre next time I go).Flightpath said:
Yep. They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) and use a lot less power. Don't tell me kippers are living in the past again? Actually I have not bought any recently but noticed that Homebase B&Q etc are piling them high so maybe they are selling cheap...logical_song said:
Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.MikeK said:http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/
A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.
Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
You have to be careful buying ultra cheap Chinese LEDs on EBay, but from DIY shops should be high quality. My local B&Q has examples running so you can check the colour and brightness.
As far as UKIP is concerned, they would try to find any drawback that they can with anything that the EU is championing.
"They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) "
"You have to be careful buying ultra cheap Chinese LEDs on EBay, but from DIY shops should be high quality."
Can also say
"Global warming is a real threat to the planet (supposedly)."
"Anything written by George Monbiot should be high quality."
If you can be spoon-fed about how long a light bulb will last and how much it cost to make (hint: where do you think B&Q LEDs are made? Handcrafted in the West Country?), what on earth makes you think you are intellectually equipped to judge whether any scientific proposition about anything is true or false?
0 -
Poor CON polls lead to 2 seat drop on @SportingIndex http://goo.gl/0sfA2E spreads
Mid-points
LAB 278+2
CON 282-2
LD 27.5
UKIP
SNP 370 -
I'm glad you love the 'etc'. Only the other day I had recourse to nip into my local discount car and cycle accessory store next door to my local but somewhat troubled value supermarket and thought I would also have a look round the adjacent new discount home goods store. B&M is expanding. To be honest I did not see any led bulbs but as we are stocked up I was not looking. But you have me bang to rights, just before Christmas I was in Currys PC World as well, prices looked good, but their clever light displays seemed far too upmarket for me. I've managed to keep my wife out of Oak FurnitureLand so far, but I'm not keeping my fingers crossed.Ishmael_X said:
You spend a lot of time comparison shopping in "Homebase B&Q etc"? (Love the "etc"). I thought it was Ukip supporters who had disappointing lives.Flightpath said:
Yep. They are relatively expensive but last a long time (supposedly) and use a lot less power. Don't tell me kippers are living in the past again? Actually I have not bought any recently but noticed that Homebase B&Q etc are piling them high so maybe they are selling cheap...logical_song said:
Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.MikeK said:http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/
A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.
Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.0 -
Flightpath Of course the US has a constitutional amendment system so that if the President and Congress agree sufficiently not even the Supreme Court can overturn an amendment with a 2/3 majority0
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The problem for the CON leadership is like with Labour last time. Almost all the top ministers are in safe seats. Only one that isn't is Nicky Morgan. It gives to a very different view of the world.TCPoliticalBetting said:
You raise an interesting point. Could it be because most of those in marginal seats won them last time and are therefore not as fearful of losing their jobs as they would be if they had been in situ for 10+ years?taffys said:What's striking is the complete lack of panic amongst senior tories in the face of rank polling. There are no major reports of dissent, disquiet, frustration etc.
Could the tories have something up their sleeves?? Budget??
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Yes, where do you think I got the words "come on instantly"?logical_song said:
Did you actually read what I wrote?Ishmael_X said:
Oh wonderful, we are allowed light bulbs which "come on instantly" - a problem I thought Edison had cracked - so only about 15 years sitting in semi-darkness imposed on us by scientific illiterates who take George Monbiot seriously and think Karl Popper is a vaguely funny name (possibly a gay porn star?) Because CO2 poisoning is soooo much more lethal than mercury poisoning.logical_song said:
Idiotic article. CFL bulbs have been replaced by LEDs nowadays which save even more money, last much longer, come on instantly and don't contain mercury.MikeK said:http://ukipdaily.com/dispose-low-energy-light-bulb/
A tongue-in-cheek but informative article.
Who wouldn't save 90% off their electric lighting bill, which is around 20% of the overall energy bill. OK you save on CO2 as well, but that doesn't have to be your main motivation.
Modern LED bulbs can even look like the old tungsten bulbs, with led 'filaments'.
Idiotic (your word) question.
0 -
For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steadySunil_Prasannan said:In graphical form:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184
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Interesting that you interpreted my comment on the LibDem choices as only relating to a Labour minority government. Have you given up on a Tory one? Perhaps you're right. :-)Flightpath said:
And hold the front page - owning up to the best prospect of a Labour minority govt, Socialist candidate says it would be wrong to vote it down.
My impression from scattered reports is that Tory commitment is varying a good deal - some are working very hard, others not a lot. Tory sources say that several marginal MPs have been told that there will be a haven for them in the Lords if necessary - not sure if that's motivating them to try harder (so as to make sure of favour) or to relax.
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Doesn't this run completely counter to OGH's fond belief that Labour voters will support the LibDems where it matters?0
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Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.Stereotomy said:
For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steadySunil_Prasannan said:In graphical form:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5670386862906531840 -
It's the only major GE market to have shown a significant drop, Mike, and even so it's not much of one in the circumstances.MikeSmithson said:Poor CON polls lead to 2 seat drop on @SportingIndex http://goo.gl/0sfA2E spreads
Mid-points
LAB 278+2
CON 282-2
LD 27.5
UKIP
SNP 37
There is now a quite substantial mismatch between what the betting markets and the polls are telling us. Time for one of your celebrated threads on the possible reasons for the discrepancy?!0 -
Ok, makes sense.TwistedFireStopper said:Bugger, New Thread Curse!
Charles said:
» show previous quotes
Out of interest, why do they structure it like that? I'd have thought that a standard shift pattern would make more sense, surely? Obviously there'd need to be some flex because you're not going to clock off in the middle of fighting a fire, but it does appear that you have a fairly odd system in place.
Because it cuts the number of staff required by 40%, saving a fortune in wages and pension contributions. There is an initial capital outlay to upgrade station facilities, but that gets classed as investment. The system is called Day Crewing Plus, and a lot of brigades are bringing it in.
From 08:00 to 20:00, it's a normal workday, but outside those times, you're on duty, but not actively doing any work related stuff-no paperwork, no computer work, no equipment testing, lectures or training. You can retire to your room, and watch TV, or cook in the communal kitchen. Attending incidents during downtime adds the accrued hours onto the end of your downtime. You can't leave the station, but family can visit and even stay the night, but, to be honest, once the novelty has worn off, not many do.
It's paid at a bonus of 27%, to account for the longer hours.
So they cut the staff by 40% and increase wages by 27%. Someone's doing well out of that system...0 -
You mean there may not be a Crossover....not now, not ever??!!!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Since the end of October, it's been 1.4% on averagebigjohnowls said:
Lab lead 1.5%Sunil_Prasannan said:In graphical form:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184
That has been about the average lead since October hasn't it?0 -
Because those people who still support the Tories rather like the Coalition.MP_SE said:Interesting to see Tory voters would prefer a coalition with the Lib Dems instead of UKIP. Any ideas as to why this is? The Lib Dems are on the completely opposite end of the political spectrum.
While those who don't like the LibDems have p1ssed off the UKIP0 -
And the Supreme Court can overrule its own previous decisions. None of which makes the US System perfect or brilliant for us.HYUFD said:Flightpath Of course the US has a constitutional amendment system so that if the President and Congress agree sufficiently not even the Supreme Court can overturn an amendment with a 2/3 majority
The USA is of course a vast continental wide federal democracy of 50 States or Commonwealths. It has to be governed somehow. I like America.0 -
That's what happen when Labour people look at the parties with an unjaundiced eyeRoger said:Danny
She apparently knew nothing of politics just a few years ago but decided she wanted to make a difference and looked at the parties and decided she'd become a Conservative despite all her family being Labour0 -
That's it then, the game is up.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.Stereotomy said:
For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steadySunil_Prasannan said:In graphical form:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184
Not much point in us voting0 -
Well it all comes down to evidence. You can't use stolen information as the primary source without corroboration. And tax evasion, by it's very nature, relies on nothing being written down.Smarmeron said:@Stark_Dawning
There was plenty of evidence, and none of it would have ever come to light had the journalists not exposed it to the world.
The tax office held the information, and decided what was to be done with it, and apparently it had no interest in law breakers being punished in the courts, or indeed named.
HMRC took 3 files to the CPS, who decided only 1 had a reasonable chance of success.0 -
Agreed. No trend ever reverses or even levels out. Never. Especially not one with two whole data points in it.nigel4england said:
That's it then, the game is up.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.Stereotomy said:
For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steadySunil_Prasannan said:In graphical form:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184
Not much point in us voting
0 -
AFD have made it into the Hamburg Land, today, and the FPD have retained their seats. The loser was the CDU, who suffered a 5.5% swing to AFD.0
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Its interesting don't you think that, in the run up to the election, the BBC chooses to serialise a novel ("more than 500 pages of relentless socialist manifesto masquerading as literature") by a millionaire Labour donor who despises the coalition.Charles said:
Because those people who still support the Tories rather like the Coalition.MP_SE said:Interesting to see Tory voters would prefer a coalition with the Lib Dems instead of UKIP. Any ideas as to why this is? The Lib Dems are on the completely opposite end of the political spectrum.
While those who don't like the LibDems have p1ssed off the UKIP
0 -
update from scanning the Danish news: the Danish press say the police are satisfied that the man (Omar El-Hussein) they killed in an exchange of fire this morning was the murderer.
He was a Danish-born man recently released from prison where he'd been serving a sentence for grevious bodily harm (he stabbed someone on the metro). He doesn't appear to have a history of great interest in Islam or Syria/Iraq etc.: rather, he has a record of serious personal violence, with involvement in non-political gang activity. They do think it's quite possibly a copycat action emulating the Paris one: they see him as someone who liked high-profile violence and attention. They're continuing to search premises and contacts in case others were involved, though at present he seems to have been a lone wolf.
0 -
I've been struck by how resilient the UKIP vote has been. Bar MORI, they've polled 13-16% this week, which means 15-17% in England. And, in the campaign, they'll be treated as a major party.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.Stereotomy said:
For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steadySunil_Prasannan said:In graphical form:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184
0 -
The Supreme Court cannot dictate or make laws, only interpret those laws passed by Congress. The President proposes a budget, but it is passed into law by Congress, so with the GOP controlling both Houses, he won't get what he wants, but what Congress is willing to give him. There will be some compromises, as the GOP don't have the 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a filibuster, so will have to placate at least 6 Dems or Independents.Flightpath said:
The US President can veto bills can't he? And of course he gets bills passed by spreading pork and all and sundry sell their vote to anybody for pork. An unelected supreme court can dictate the law.Speedy said:
That's an interesting thought which I agree, it is the american system of government.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
No government would suit me fine. Far too many authoritarian acts passed in the last twenty years. Parliament needs to return to its proper purpose of controlling the government, not being the government.Speedy said:
Blame the Fixed Parliament Act for creating a possibility of a government not having control of parliament.HYUFD said:Speedy Well, so what, regardless of potential by-election defeats if there is no deal with the LDs and Labour needs them for a majority in effect we would get no government at all!
However the Act can be abolished.
The House of Commons will degenerate into the US Congress, we can have a government which can't pass legislation, like in America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-4FQAov2xI
Look at the out of control US spending over the years.
This is a good system?
Earmarks for 'for-profits' were banned in 2010, and prior to that made up less than 1% of the budget.
The President may veto bills and, as currently constituted, the GOP could not overturn the veto without at least 13 Dem and Ind senators voting with them.
Since the budget deal, not sure that you can say that USG spending is out of control. The deficit has fallen from $1.3 trillion in 2011 to $483 billion tin 2014. How does the UK's performance compare to this?0 -
If I were a Kipper, I'd be pretty happy.Sean_F said:
I've been struck by how resilient the UKIP vote has been. Bar MORI, they've polled 13-16% this week, which means 15-17% in England. And, in the campaign, they'll be treated as a major party.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.Stereotomy said:
For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steadySunil_Prasannan said:In graphical form:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184
For a start, UKIP are streets ahead of where most people thought they would be by now. And they can hope to improve nearer the election when they will quite naturally be more in the public eye. For the moment they're going through a quiet spell, but they've had no major problems, yet have dropped back very little.0 -
Good evening, everyone.
Rather enjoyed Top Gear tonight. Margot Robbie is delightful.
In more important news, the second episode of Zodiac Eclipse is now up, and can be read here: http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-distress/0 -
Was he a Muslim?NickPalmer said:update from scanning the Danish news: the Danish press say the police are satisfied that the man (Omar El-Hussein) they killed in an exchange of fire this morning was the murderer.
He was a Danish-born man recently released from prison where he'd been serving a sentence for grevious bodily harm (he stabbed someone on the metro). He doesn't appear to have a history of great interest in Islam or Syria/Iraq etc.: rather, he has a record of serious personal violence, with involvement in non-political gang activity. They do think it's quite possibly a copycat action emulating the Paris one: they see him as someone who liked high-profile violence and attention. They're continuing to search premises and contacts in case others were involved, though at present he seems to have been a lone wolf.0 -
Why was that festival in Germany cancelled Nick?NickPalmer said:update from scanning the Danish news: the Danish press say the police are satisfied that the man (Omar El-Hussein) they killed in an exchange of fire this morning was the murderer.
He was a Danish-born man recently released from prison where he'd been serving a sentence for grevious bodily harm (he stabbed someone on the metro). He doesn't appear to have a history of great interest in Islam or Syria/Iraq etc.: rather, he has a record of serious personal violence, with involvement in non-political gang activity. They do think it's quite possibly a copycat action emulating the Paris one: they see him as someone who liked high-profile violence and attention. They're continuing to search premises and contacts in case others were involved, though at present he seems to have been a lone wolf.0 -
Had two very different leaflets from LDs on Friday and Saturday in the post. Friday's was addressed to my wife.
"Lib Dems fighting to make things fairer. Remember Labour's Record" - "Nearly bankrupted Britain, Locked up Child Migrants. Hiked taxes for the low paid. Middle East still in crisis after Iraq War."
Lib Dems trying to encourage my wife to vote LD and not wander off to vote Labour.
On Saturday I had something very different.
"I'm afraid there's no money left ...would you REALLY risk letting this happen again?"
Has highly unflattering photos of The Two Eds.
If Labour Win in May the Economy will be at risk ...only a Lib Dem vote will deliver a stronger economy."
Lib Dems trying to get me to vote for them to keep Labour out. But can the Yellow Peril be trusted by right of centre voters not to work with Labour? My leaflet implies that the real enemy are Labour, and to keep them out, I should back them.0 -
SeanF Looks like post Greece Merkel is facing her own UKIP problem, maybe she will be able to listen to Cameron's concerns on EU reform a bit more as a result. Looks like the FDP have scraped back into parliament which will provide some comfort and the SPD has lost its majority and will likely do a deal with Die Linke0
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Flightpath Indeed0
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Season 4 of Game of Thrones comes out on DVD tomorrow.Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
Rather enjoyed Top Gear tonight. Margot Robbie is delightful.
In more important news, the second episode of Zodiac Eclipse is now up, and can be read here: http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-distress/0 -
12 months ago, I'd have expected UKIP to be polling below 10% at this point.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were a Kipper, I'd be pretty happy.Sean_F said:
I've been struck by how resilient the UKIP vote has been. Bar MORI, they've polled 13-16% this week, which means 15-17% in England. And, in the campaign, they'll be treated as a major party.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.Stereotomy said:
For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steadySunil_Prasannan said:In graphical form:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184
For a start, UKIP are streets ahead of where most people thought they would be by now. And they can hope to improve nearer the election when they will quite naturally be more in the public eye. For the moment they're going through a quiet spell, but they've had no major problems, yet have dropped back very little.0 -
It has been unusually quiet as far as negative UKIP stories go.Sean_F said:
I've been struck by how resilient the UKIP vote has been. Bar MORI, they've polled 13-16% this week, which means 15-17% in England. And, in the campaign, they'll be treated as a major party.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.Stereotomy said:
For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steadySunil_Prasannan said:In graphical form:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184
I will put money on a lot of papers sitting on what they consider dirt and releasing it a few weeks before the election. They will also recycle all of the old stories for good measure.
I think 15% is achievable, they might shed a few points as a result of people voting tactically but should gain a few with the increased coverage thanks to them being labelled a major political party.
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I reckon MORI was a low outlier for UKIP.Sean_F said:
I've been struck by how resilient the UKIP vote has been. Bar MORI, they've polled 13-16% this week, which means 15-17% in England. And, in the campaign, they'll be treated as a major party.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.Stereotomy said:
For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steadySunil_Prasannan said:In graphical form:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5670386862906531840 -
Mr. F, I am acutely aware of this. Huzzah!
Hope it's delivered tomorrow, but whether it is or not I shall attempt to ration it in accordance with the principles of Behaviourism, as pioneered by BF Skinner.0 -
Have they made it to Kings Langley yet?Sean_F said:
Season 4 of Game of Thrones comes out on DVD tomorrow.Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
Rather enjoyed Top Gear tonight. Margot Robbie is delightful.
In more important news, the second episode of Zodiac Eclipse is now up, and can be read here: http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-distress/0 -
Williams LD 48% of vote.rural_voter said:"Where is the second Green coming from ? Norwich South ? "
Or maybe Bristol West.
Green 3.8% of vote.
Labour had 27% of vote - would be a huge huge sensation if the Greens won.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/a73.stm
Was a letter in The Bristol Posts, from a Lab councillor last week worried that a Green surge would stop Labour wining the seat.0 -
I think it should be Mega Polling Monday tomorrow with polls from Populus, The Good Lord Amen, ICM and YouGov!!!!!!
#megapollingmonday0 -
Mr. England, King's Landing*.
Also, please do avoid spoilers.0 -
They delivered season 3 on the release date so there is a good chance yours will arrive tomorrow.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, I am acutely aware of this. Huzzah!
Hope it's delivered tomorrow, but whether it is or not I shall attempt to ration it in accordance with the principles of Behaviourism, as pioneered by BF Skinner.
I forgot when it was being released so will be at the mercy of super saver delivery. One episode a week is what I will ration myself to.
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Another lone wolf, eh?NickPalmer said:update from scanning the Danish news: the Danish press say the police are satisfied that the man (Omar El-Hussein) they killed in an exchange of fire this morning was the murderer.
He was a Danish-born man recently released from prison where he'd been serving a sentence for grevious bodily harm (he stabbed someone on the metro). He doesn't appear to have a history of great interest in Islam or Syria/Iraq etc.: rather, he has a record of serious personal violence, with involvement in non-political gang activity. They do think it's quite possibly a copycat action emulating the Paris one: they see him as someone who liked high-profile violence and attention. They're continuing to search premises and contacts in case others were involved, though at present he seems to have been a lone wolf.
Lots of them around these days, it seems.
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As recently as May 2014 I was able to back them to win at least one seat at the GE at odds of 5/6.Sean_F said:
12 months ago, I'd have expected UKIP to be polling below 10% at this point.Peter_the_Punter said:
If I were a Kipper, I'd be pretty happy.Sean_F said:
I've been struck by how resilient the UKIP vote has been. Bar MORI, they've polled 13-16% this week, which means 15-17% in England. And, in the campaign, they'll be treated as a major party.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Well, they've had two consecutive 0.6% weekly falls.Stereotomy said:
For all the talk of UKIP slipping back, they actually look pretty steadySunil_Prasannan said:In graphical form:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184
For a start, UKIP are streets ahead of where most people thought they would be by now. And they can hope to improve nearer the election when they will quite naturally be more in the public eye. For the moment they're going through a quiet spell, but they've had no major problems, yet have dropped back very little.
They now have two MPs and every chance of adding more in May. I guess we'll both be very pleased if they do, though for rather different reasons.0 -
'since the budget deal'? Thats the point. The budget needed a deal, it was too high. Our own govt can claim it has halved the deficit, but what I was talking about was spending and the pork that gets built in to spending.MTimT said:
The Supreme Court cannot dictate or make laws, only interpret those laws passed by Congress. The President proposes a budget, but it is passed into law by Congress, so with the GOP controlling both Houses, he won't get what he wants, but what Congress is willing to give him. There will be some compromises, as the GOP don't have the 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a filibuster, so will have to placate at least 6 Dems or Independents.Flightpath said:
The US President can veto bills can't he? And of course he gets bills passed by spreading pork and all and sundry sell their vote to anybody for pork. An unelected supreme court can dictate the law.Speedy said:
That's an interesting thought which I agree, it is the american system of government.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
No government would suit me fine. Far too many authoritarian acts passed in the last twenty years. Parliament needs to return to its proper purpose of controlling the government, not being the government.Speedy said:
Blame the Fixed Parliament Act for creating a possibility of a government not having control of parliament.HYUFD said:Speedy Well, so what, regardless of potential by-election defeats if there is no deal with the LDs and Labour needs them for a majority in effect we would get no government at all!
However the Act can be abolished.
The House of Commons will degenerate into the US Congress, we can have a government which can't pass legislation, like in America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-4FQAov2xI
Look at the out of control US spending over the years.
This is a good system?
Earmarks for 'for-profits' were banned in 2010, and prior to that made up less than 1% of the budget.
The President may veto bills and, as currently constituted, the GOP could not overturn the veto without at least 13 Dem and Ind senators voting with them.
Since the budget deal, not sure that you can say that USG spending is out of control. The deficit has fallen from $1.3 trillion in 2011 to $483 billion tin 2014. How does the UK's performance compare to this?
As far as our spending goes you can look at the figures for the last 5 years and look at the ones for the last 10 of Labours to see that it has been successful in controlling spending. Labour increased spending over 10 years by 50%.
I'm not saying the USA is bad, I am not against the USA. But its system is far from perfect - but they have the problems of their country and its constitution to live with.0
