'Andy Burnham would forge an alliance with the Green Party and rip up the first-past-the-post electoral system if he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, supporters of the Manchester mayor have said.
Labour's devastating defeat in Thursday's Gorton and Denton by-election has left his leadership rivals circling ominously, with Mr Burnham the favourite among both Labour voters and the wider electorate – even though he is not an MP...The research, by polling expert and former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft, rates Mr Burnham as the 'best Prime Minister' among the Labour leadership contenders, on 27 per cent, ahead of Ed Miliband on 8 per cent, and Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting both on 6 per cent.
It also indicates that a coalition between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Zack Polanski's Greens would beat a Tory/Reform UK coalition by 43 per cent to 33 per cent.
It is understood that Mr Burnham is trying to persuade Marie Rimmer, the veteran Labour MP for St Helens South and Whiston, to stand aside to let him return to the Commons...Separately, there are claims that former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has privately told Mr Burnham that she would not put herself forward for the leadership role if he was a candidate.
However, she is said to be ready to do so to stop Health Secretary Wes Streeting getting the job if a contest began before Mr Burnham could return to the Commons.
Most Labour MPs believe that Sir Keir will not face a leadership challenge until after the May local elections.
Last night, Mr Burnham said the claims about him were 'made up'.
'Andy Burnham would forge an alliance with the Green Party and rip up the first-past-the-post electoral system if he succeeds Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, supporters of the Manchester mayor have said.
Labour's devastating defeat in Thursday's Gorton and Denton by-election has left his leadership rivals circling ominously, with Mr Burnham the favourite among both Labour voters and the wider electorate – even though he is not an MP...The research, by polling expert and former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft, rates Mr Burnham as the 'best Prime Minister' among the Labour leadership contenders, on 27 per cent, ahead of Ed Miliband on 8 per cent, and Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting both on 6 per cent.
It also indicates that a coalition between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Zack Polanski's Greens would beat a Tory/Reform UK coalition by 43 per cent to 33 per cent.
It is understood that Mr Burnham is trying to persuade Marie Rimmer, the veteran Labour MP for St Helens South and Whiston, to stand aside to let him return to the Commons...Separately, there are claims that former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has privately told Mr Burnham that she would not put herself forward for the leadership role if he was a candidate.
However, she is said to be ready to do so to stop Health Secretary Wes Streeting getting the job if a contest began before Mr Burnham could return to the Commons.
Most Labour MPs believe that Sir Keir will not face a leadership challenge until after the May local elections.
Last night, Mr Burnham said the claims about him were 'made up'.
just feels like at every layer of the security/military/diplomatic washington circular world they passed on a note from their desk saying - no way, don't do it, christ, madness, play it safe, what if...
...and then it reached the King of Dementia.
The CIA apparently thinks he'll be replaced with an IRGC hardliner.
We've seen story after story being leaked where essentially the military and intelligence community are saying "it can get worse" but Trump needs an easy "win" to shut up the press for a while.
It is a win, no matter what.
Hopefully this leads to freedom. If a new dictator arises who is worse, then we should seek another win and eliminate him too.
Trump and Netenyahu couldn’t give a fig about the Iranian civilians . They’d happily make a deal with a weakened Iran as the bodies pile up in the streets .
"[UAE] defence forces have intercepted 137 ballistic missiles and 209 drones launched toward the country. Fourteen of the drones that fell within the country's territories and waters caused "some collateral damage", it says.
That "lucky" debris, huh? Every Iranian missile must come with a built in rabbit's foot.
Although it is looking like Russia won't be getting any more Shaheed drone deliveries for the foreseeable. Shame.
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
Those 202 Reform seats would end up a fraction of that with them on only 22%, once the other parties' supporters vote tactically against them.
BBC "Amir Saeid Iravani, Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, says hundreds of people have been killed or injured in the US and Israel's “unprovoked and premeditated aggression against Iran"."
That Tehran Unprovocation-Meter might need some recalibrating. Turns out upscaling uranium to weapons-grade is quite provocative...
I can't entirely condemn Trump for his actions in Iran, but I certainly don't support them. I rather wonder quite what I'll make of his (lets hope) grand victory, and what also would I make of his humiliating defeat. I can only conclude that Trump exists in a sort of Schrodinger bubble.
I can. He's a fucking idiot listening to the voices in his head. Just as he has been doing since his regime came to power.
We can point out a few possible mini-futures, from the movement of segments of the USA population into concentration camps - as Japanese in WW2, to massed drone attacks on US bases and forces, and possibly the USA itself, Mar a Lago for example being on the Florida seafront with Trump's munchkins watching teh feed on home cinema.
Plus heaven knows what blowback against former or current US allies.
I won't mention the B2 bombers that habitually live parked in rows on a US base, in or out of their shelters, like fat old lunchers groping the girls at a go-go club.
Trump is an arrogant, delusional wanker who has no touch with reality. So here is back on a random walk.
One I have not seen mentioned here is that some of Trump's Christian Nationalists have a theology of conflict around Israel as part of their "narrative of the end times", or are very theology centric on Israel. Marco Rubio is hot on the latter.
I can't call it much beyond pointing out possibilities, as I have little knowledge of Iran's capabilities in 2026.
I worked at the UN for five years, covering it from headquarters, and I’ll tell you this: neither Russia nor Iran has ever looked so confused, so off-balance, and so lost in their statements. Russians were always brazen liars who shouted during meetings, attacking and insulting everyone at the UN Security Council table. They always behaved like overconfident bullies. But today, they acted almost as if they didn’t care. They were still lying, but they didn’t even seem to be trying anymore. I see it as a loss of morale.
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
Those 202 Reform seats would end up a fraction of that with them on only 22%, once the other parties' supporters vote tactically against them.
Isn't a massive amount of tactical voting already built into the baseline given the theme of 2024 was get the Tories out?
Can't imagine there are that many left of centre people who would vote tactically against Reform who didn't already vote tactically last time. So you'd be looking for Tories who stuck with them in 2024 who were prepared to vote tactically for Labour/LibDems and against Reform. Would think most of the Remain minded anti-Reform Tories had already jumoed ship by 2024 but maybe I'm wrong.
I can't entirely condemn Trump for his actions in Iran, but I certainly don't support them. I rather wonder quite what I'll make of his (lets hope) grand victory, and what also would I make of his humiliating defeat. I can only conclude that Trump exists in a sort of Schrodinger bubble.
I can. He's a fucking idiot listening to the voices in his head. Just as he has been doing since his regime came to power.
We can point out a few possible mini-futures, from the movement of segments of the USA population into concentration camps - as Japanese in WW2, to massed drone attacks on US bases and forces, and possibly the USA itself, Mar a Lago for example being on the Florida seafront with Trump's munchkins watching teh feed on home cinema.
Plus heaven knows what blowback against former or current US allies.
I won't mention the B2 bombers that habitually live parked in rows on a US base, in or out of their shelters, like fat old lunchers groping the girls at a go-go club.
Trump is an arrogant, delusional wanker who has no touch with reality. So here is back on a random walk.
One I have not seen mentioned here is that some of Trump's Christian Nationalists have a theology of conflict around Israel as part of their "narrative of the end times", or are very theology centric on Israel. Marco Rubio is hot on the latter.
I can't call it much beyond pointing out possibilities, as I have little knowledge of Iran's capabilities in 2026.
Oh good grief, what a negative Nancy.
Can you not just rejoice in the good news?
How about some positive possibilities?
What about the possibility the deceased dictator's successor is not as bad?
What about the possibility that Iran becomes a more free society?
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
Those 202 Reform seats would end up a fraction of that with them on only 22%, once the other parties' supporters vote tactically against them.
Isn't a massive amount of tactical voting already built into the baseline given the theme of 2024 was get the Tories out?
Can't imagine there are that many left of centre people who would vote tactically against Reform who didn't already vote tactically last time. So you'd be looking for Tories who stuck with them in 2024 who were prepared to vote tactically for Labour/LibDems and against Reform. Would think most of the Remain minded anti-Reform Tories had already jumoed ship by 2024 but maybe I'm wrong.
Actually what I'm overlooking is seats like the Labour ones in Staffordshire (Stoke S, Tamworth, Cannock Chase, Lichfield, Utoxeter etc where the combined Tory/Reform vote was over 50% and maybe left of centre people there abandon Labour and vote Tory to stop Reform)
UAE Armed Forces says we faced 137 rockets and 209 Iranian drones since attack started.
Out 137, 132 of them destroyed, while 5 fell in sea. 209 drones were detected, 195 intercepted, 14 fell within the country's territories and waters, causing some collateral damage.
To be honest it’s not that bad, a few small fires quickly put out and, with the exception of one drone that hit the airport, only minor damage to anything. Life will continue to go on.
One now hopes that, with the death of the Ayatollah seemingly confirmed, things move quickly in Iran and a new order asserts itself. The brave people are the Iranians in the street celebrating tonight, may their country turn into a safe and prosperous plane in the future.
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian Assuming Ayatollah Khamenei is Dead, now comes the complicated part.
Does the U.S. allow his son/deputy to take power (as they did in Venezuela last month)?
Does the U.S. leave a power vacuum (as they did in Iraq)?
Does the U.S. occupy the country for a decade to stabilize it (as they did in Germany/Japan)?
Why would the USA be in a position to impose any of those?
Trump has already made clear that ground forces are not a serious option. Given that Iran is 2.5x as big as Ukraine with 2.5x the population, that is the first rational thing he has said.
If they had their way, and were listening to foreign policy and diplomacy people, rather than the ignorant, brain-dead munchkins Trump has deliberately surrounded himself with, it would be create a ost-Mullah Government by incorporating the regular armed forces into the new regime.
That duality is roughly like the Wehrmacht vs the SS, the latter being ideological like the IGRC.
They comprehensively f*cked up Iraq by insisting on demolishing the entire existing regime.
Trump is such a moron that he could ignore the lesson of Iraq,
But I do not see that he is in a position to have decisive leverage.
Serious question - how does Trump think this war will end?
Iran are not going to roll over and will continue to target US bases across the region - and will probably try to blockade Straits of Hormuz.
If Gulf States retaliate, expect Iran to directly target their cities (it has only been minor collateral damage so far).
US/Israel can only attack by air - with no possibility of invasion - so only outcome is a blockade and spiralling oil prices, which only helps Russia..... Oh.... I see it now...
Serious question - how does Trump think this war will end?
Iran are not going to roll over and will continue to target US bases across the region - and will probably try to blockade Straits of Hormuz.
If Gulf States retaliate, expect Iran to directly target their cities (it has only been minor collateral damage so far).
US/Israel can only attack by air - with no possibility of invasion - so only outcome is a blockade and spiralling oil prices, which only helps Russia..... Oh.... I see it now...
Who knows what Trump thinks or what he'll think tomorrow (which is barely connected and depends which of his scheming courtiers spoke to him last) but doesn't this work?
- Iran chooses a new leader - Trump talks to him on the phone - They re-sign the Obama deal - Oil sanctions lifted, US gets a symbolic tanker of free oil - Victory!
Well, after mostly sleeping okayish I made the mistake of stretching, which my shoulder take as a sign that pain would be fun, so I got up at 4.30am. Good practice for next weekend.
Anyway, I'm sure reading the news will take my mind off things and relax me.
Serious question - how does Trump think this war will end?
Iran are not going to roll over and will continue to target US bases across the region - and will probably try to blockade Straits of Hormuz.
If Gulf States retaliate, expect Iran to directly target their cities (it has only been minor collateral damage so far).
US/Israel can only attack by air - with no possibility of invasion - so only outcome is a blockade and spiralling oil prices, which only helps Russia..... Oh.... I see it now...
Who knows what Trump thinks or what he'll think tomorrow (which is barely connected and depends which of his scheming courtiers spoke to him last) but doesn't this work?
- Iran chooses a new leader - Trump talks to him on the phone - They re-sign the Obama deal - Oil sanctions lifted, US gets a symbolic tanker of free oil - Victory!
I don’t think Trump gave it much thought - I suspect Israel brought everything forward when they discovered they knew yesterday morning where everyone was so now was the perfect time to launch the attack.
Remember we asked yesterday morning why now in daylight? The answer to that question explains everything.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
Two assumptions, one correct, one fatally not.
a) a large attack was imminent, so they needed to work out what to do once it came about
b) that attack would - as with previous attacks on Iran, and on Venezuela - be at night.
So the core power of Iran was sat around a large table. They would have been mid-sentence as the missiles slammed in.
Which means the potential replacement tiers of leadership would have gone. Plus, they wouldn't have atually reached the strategic decisions on what to do next that could be passed to those outside the room.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
The new Ayatollah might be a Mossad agent
It would be of more practical benefit if they all started thinking everyone else was a Mossad agent.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
That doesn’t have to be human. They could have tapped communications by - say - selling them phones.
I agree it’s possible, just that Ahmadinejed has a Crucible-like tendency to implicate everyone in Jewish conspiracies.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would have been an interesting meeting of the inaugural "Let's find all the Israeli spies" grouping.
According to state media, he was killed in his office.
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
It does appear that, when surrounded by countries that want to wipe you off the face of the Earth, you get *really* good at intelligence. It appears that yesterday morning was a cabinet meeting in the old man’s office, and whatever was planned got hastily brought forward.
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
That would be quite funny, if true. However, we should also remember Ahmadinnerjacket is a total loon who sees Jews everywhere even when he’s sober (which he fairly often isn’t).
Well someone tipped off their enemy yesterday morning about a very secret meeting, it’s not much of a stretch to think the Iranian regime was totally infiltrated at a very senior level.
The new Ayatollah might be a Mossad agent
That inaugural speech to the nation by the new President of Iran:
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
I don’t think you could have Reform-Con: it would cement Cons as the junior partner. They might be willing to do Con-Reform but doubt that Nigel would go for that…
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
And that only works as long as neither the wetter bits of the Conservative party nor the drier bits of Reform flake off when presented with the compromises of coalition.
It's a bit like the paradox of choice in supermarkets- the way that having ten subtle variants of Wheetie Flakes on the shelf doesn't make us happier. I suspect the same might be true of dating apps. Politically, we're all much clearer what we don't want than what we're OK with.
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
I don’t think you could have Reform-Con: it would cement Cons as the junior partner. They might be willing to do Con-Reform but doubt that Nigel would go for that…
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
You don't see any presence of or role for Restore after the next GE?
A name reverred in the dark corners of Global intellegence for decades.
Hugly respected by allies, feared and hated (but undoubtedly respected for their clandestine ability) by foes.
It would appear that they have again infiltrated the enemy with stunning cunning - (or as their biggest fan Pritti would say stunnin cunnin)
It does beg the question in Western circles, and these questions were seriously raised by many conspiracy theorists after 9/11 - how embedded are these people in UK / European and American life.
As many have asked, what now does Trump have a plan beyond the assassination of the higher echelons on Iranian government? We can be damn sure that Netanyau does, as he leads Trump inexorably towards further barbarism in the area!
I will repeat the question I asked last night that no one on the Right of UK politics can answer
Given that so far Starmer - together with every other major Western European + Canada / Australia has so far offered ONLY defensive support of UK installations and people and NO aggressive support of the US and isael - for which imho - he deserves great credit...
"Are the Right in the UK seriously going to back the leader of the main UK Opposition Party Nigel Farage and the leader of the offical Opposition Kemi Badenoch, in calling for and supporting the UK joining Israel and the US on attacking Iran be it by air / land or sea??!
Farage and Badenoch will be massively out of synch and step with UK public opinion of they do, a defining moment for both. Lets hope both can not be persuaded by the Israeli sponsored puppet string pullers Tommy Robinson and Pritti Patel in atually being serious that the UK should get any more involved in this shit show than we already are.
The lessons of history in the region will weigh heavily on any blood lust Reform or Tory actions to encourage this.
I believe Starmer or some one in Government who has more political nous than Stamer should instigate a Debate tomorrow to give Parliamentary approval for the UK to not get more involved than it is, if Reform and Tories want to add an amendment for military action, or go in the the No Lobby for the substantive motion, then the electorate can decide who the serious politicians are and who the opportunistic war mongers are.
The final added facet that these pair must be exposed if using is any wttempt to stir up racial and religious hatred on our streets in any way shape of form.
A name reverred in the dark corners of Global intellegence for decades.
Hugly respected by allies, feared and hated (but undoubtedly respected for their clandestine ability) by foes.
It would appear that they have again infiltrated the enemy with stunning cunning - (or as their biggest fan Pritti would say stunnin cunnin)
It does beg the question in Western circles, and these questions were seriously raised by many conspiracy theorists after 9/11 - how embedded are these people in UK / European and American life.
As many have asked, what now does Trump have a plan beyond the assassination of the higher echelons on Iranian government? We can be damn sure that Netanyau does, as he leads Trump inexorably towards further barbarism in the area!
I will repeat the question I asked last night that no one on the Right of UK politics can answer
Given that so far Starmer - together with every other major Western European + Canada / Australia has so far offered ONLY defensive support of UK installations and people and NO aggressive support of the US and isael - for which imho - he deserves great credit...
"Are the Right in the UK seriously going to back the leader of the main UK Opposition Party Nigel Farage and the leader of the offical Opposition Kemi Badenoch, in calling for and supporting the UK joining Israel and the US on attacking Iran be it by air / land or sea??!
Farage and Badenoch will be massively out of synch and step with UK public opinion of they do, a defining moment for both. Lets hope both can not be persuaded by the Israeli sponsored puppet string pullers Tommy Robinson and Pritti Patel in atually being serious that the UK should get any more involved in this shit show than we already are.
The lessons of history in the region will weigh heavily on any blood lust Reform or Tory actions to encourage this.
I believe Starmer or some one in Government who has more political nous than Stamer should instigate a Debate tomorrow to give Parliamentary approval for the UK to not get more involved than it is, if Reform and Tories want to add an amendment for military action, or go in the the No Lobby for the substantive motion, then the electorate can decide who the serious politicians are and who the opportunistic war mongers are.
The final added facet that these pair must be exposed if using is any wttempt to stir up racial and religious hatred on our streets in any way shape of form.
You omitted appease. The lessons of history are clear
Interesting poll and taken post the Green win in the Gorton and Denton by election.
Nowcast gives Reform 202 MPs, Conservatives 130, Greens 83, Labour 73 and LDs 68 and SNP 45 on those numbers.
So most likely a hung parliament and Reform minority government led by Farage but with Kemi Leader of the Opposition and the Greens overtaking Labour as the main party of the left and replacing the LDs as the main third party as well https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast/custom
I don't see a minority government with 200 seats working at all, especially not with Reform in charge. Any Budget or King's Speech would fail completely, let alone the first one of a Reform government. Kemi would have to vote against almost everything they proposed, as Leader of the Opposition, and the Greens, Labour and LDs would do so anyway. So you'd have a government that couldn't get anything done.
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
You don't see any presence of or role for Restore after the next GE?
Good morning, everybody.
The Blackshorts?
(It's a reference to Lowe's time as Chairman of Southampton FC, any Wodehouse tropes are purely coincidental. Honest.)
There's no way that Lowe and Farage are sitting on the same Cabinet.
Comments
WW3 just started.
Can't get a double 6 if you don't roll the dice.
Or batting.
Now you are criticising any deal?
And presumably against no deal too.
Just what can be done that is right in your eyes?
"[UAE] defence forces have intercepted 137 ballistic missiles and 209 drones launched toward the country. Fourteen of the drones that fell within the country's territories and waters caused "some collateral damage", it says.
That "lucky" debris, huh? Every Iranian missile must come with a built in rabbit's foot.
Although it is looking like Russia won't be getting any more Shaheed drone deliveries for the foreseeable. Shame.
That Tehran Unprovocation-Meter might need some recalibrating. Turns out upscaling uranium to weapons-grade is quite provocative...
We can point out a few possible mini-futures, from the movement of segments of the USA population into concentration camps - as Japanese in WW2, to massed drone attacks on US bases and forces, and possibly the USA itself, Mar a Lago for example being on the Florida seafront with Trump's munchkins watching teh feed on home cinema.
Plus heaven knows what blowback against former or current US allies.
I won't mention the B2 bombers that habitually live parked in rows on a US base, in or out of their shelters, like fat old lunchers groping the girls at a go-go club.
Trump is an arrogant, delusional wanker who has no touch with reality. So here is back on a random walk.
One I have not seen mentioned here is that some of Trump's Christian Nationalists have a theology of conflict around Israel as part of their "narrative of the end times", or are very theology centric on Israel. Marco Rubio is hot on the latter.
I can't call it much beyond pointing out possibilities, as I have little knowledge of Iran's capabilities in 2026.
https://x.com/KaterynaLis/status/2027897240589660430
I worked at the UN for five years, covering it from headquarters, and I’ll tell you this: neither Russia nor Iran has ever looked so confused, so off-balance, and so lost in their statements. Russians were always brazen liars who shouted during meetings, attacking and insulting everyone at the UN Security Council table. They always behaved like overconfident bullies. But today, they acted almost as if they didn’t care. They were still lying, but they didn’t even seem to be trying anymore. I see it as a loss of morale.
Can't imagine there are that many left of centre people who would vote tactically against Reform who didn't already vote tactically last time. So you'd be looking for Tories who stuck with them in 2024 who were prepared to vote tactically for Labour/LibDems and against Reform.
Would think most of the Remain minded anti-Reform Tories had already jumoed ship by 2024 but maybe I'm wrong.
Can you not just rejoice in the good news?
How about some positive possibilities?
What about the possibility the deceased dictator's successor is not as bad?
What about the possibility that Iran becomes a more free society?
Either way, today is good news. Rejoice.
https://x.com/PressTV/status/2027918822913491294?s=20
Well this is fun, it’s like being Ukraine again only without the snow. Emergency alerts waking us up just before 1am.
https://x.com/sajwani/status/2027865404388085793
UAE Armed Forces says we faced 137 rockets and 209 Iranian drones since attack started.
Out 137, 132 of them destroyed, while 5 fell in sea. 209 drones were detected, 195 intercepted, 14 fell within the country's territories and waters, causing some collateral damage.
To be honest it’s not that bad, a few small fires quickly put out and, with the exception of one drone that hit the airport, only minor damage to anything. Life will continue to go on.
One now hopes that, with the death of the Ayatollah seemingly confirmed, things move quickly in Iran and a new order asserts itself. The brave people are the Iranians in the street celebrating tonight, may their country turn into a safe and prosperous plane in the future.
Trump has already made clear that ground forces are not a serious option. Given that Iran is 2.5x as big as Ukraine with 2.5x the population, that is the first rational thing he has said.
If they had their way, and were listening to foreign policy and diplomacy people, rather than the ignorant, brain-dead munchkins Trump has deliberately surrounded himself with, it would be create a ost-Mullah Government by incorporating the regular armed forces into the new regime.
That duality is roughly like the Wehrmacht vs the SS, the latter being ideological like the IGRC.
They comprehensively f*cked up Iraq by insisting on demolishing the entire existing regime.
Trump is such a moron that he could ignore the lesson of Iraq,
But I do not see that he is in a position to have decisive leverage.
Iran are not going to roll over and will continue to target US bases across the region - and will probably try to blockade Straits of Hormuz.
If Gulf States retaliate, expect Iran to directly target their cities (it has only been minor collateral damage so far).
US/Israel can only attack by air - with no possibility of invasion - so only outcome is a blockade and spiralling oil prices, which only helps Russia..... Oh.... I see it now...
- Iran chooses a new leader
- Trump talks to him on the phone
- They re-sign the Obama deal
- Oil sanctions lifted, US gets a symbolic tanker of free oil
- Victory!
Well, after mostly sleeping okayish I made the mistake of stretching, which my shoulder take as a sign that pain would be fun, so I got up at 4.30am. Good practice for next weekend.
Anyway, I'm sure reading the news will take my mind off things and relax me.
Ah...
Remember we asked yesterday morning why now in daylight? The answer to that question explains everything.
‘Hey, Guys. This is the best deal you’re going ever going to get. Why not get your team together to discuss it’
… and the rest is history
According to the Israelis, he was killed in a meeting.
In either scenario, how on earth were they caught napping to that extent?
https://x.com/drelidavid/status/2027865806315434206
The regime's former president Ahmadinejad: “Iran's Secret Service had established a unit to target Mossad agents within Iran. However, the head of this unit turned out to be a Mossad operative himself, along with 20 other agents.”
a) a large attack was imminent, so they needed to work out what to do once it came about
b) that attack would - as with previous attacks on Iran, and on Venezuela - be at night.
So the core power of Iran was sat around a large table. They would have been mid-sentence as the missiles slammed in.
Which means the potential replacement tiers of leadership would have gone. Plus, they wouldn't have atually reached the strategic decisions on what to do next that could be passed to those outside the room.
They really have cut off the head of the snake.
In an era where puppets could have very graphic sex!
The only alignment that makes any sense on those numbers would be a Conservative-Reform Coalition, maybe including the DUP if they are bribed enough. A Traffic Light coalition of Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens wouldn't have the numbers and would terrify the bond markets. A Stop Reform coalition of Cons-Labour-LDs-SNP-Greens would be utterly incoherent, even by the standards of coalitions.
No, I think it would either be Reform-Conservative or back to the electorate with weeks, maybe days. Whether it'd be able to get much done with a majority of a dozen is another question.
I agree it’s possible, just that Ahmadinejed has a Crucible-like tendency to implicate everyone in Jewish conspiracies.
Looking around the table. "Shalom..."
"People of Iran...shalom..."
Time for Brenda!
It's a bit like the paradox of choice in supermarkets- the way that having ten subtle variants of Wheetie Flakes on the shelf doesn't make us happier. I suspect the same might be true of dating apps. Politically, we're all much clearer what we don't want than what we're OK with.
Share...
Time to wheel out the 1974 joke;
Who governs Britain?
Not you.
Good morning, everybody.
A name reverred in the dark corners of Global intellegence for decades.
Hugly respected by allies, feared and hated (but undoubtedly respected for their clandestine ability) by foes.
It would appear that they have again infiltrated the enemy with stunning cunning - (or as their biggest fan Pritti would say stunnin cunnin)
It does beg the question in Western circles, and these questions were seriously raised by many conspiracy theorists after 9/11 - how embedded are these people in UK / European and American life.
As many have asked, what now does Trump have a plan beyond the assassination of the higher echelons on Iranian government?
We can be damn sure that Netanyau does, as he leads Trump inexorably towards further barbarism in the area!
I will repeat the question I asked last night that no one on the Right of UK politics can answer
Given that so far Starmer - together with every other major Western European + Canada / Australia has so far offered ONLY defensive support of UK installations and people and NO aggressive support of the US and isael - for which imho - he deserves great credit...
"Are the Right in the UK seriously going to back the leader of the main UK Opposition Party Nigel Farage and the leader of the offical Opposition Kemi Badenoch, in calling for and supporting the UK joining Israel and the US on attacking Iran be it by air / land or sea??!
Farage and Badenoch will be massively out of synch and step with UK public opinion of they do, a defining moment for both. Lets hope both can not be persuaded by the Israeli sponsored puppet string pullers Tommy Robinson and Pritti Patel in atually being serious that the UK should get any more involved in this shit show than we already are.
The lessons of history in the region will weigh heavily on any blood lust Reform or Tory actions to encourage this.
I believe Starmer or some one in Government who has more political nous than Stamer should instigate a Debate tomorrow to give Parliamentary approval for the UK to not get more involved than it is, if Reform and Tories want to add an amendment for military action, or go in the the No Lobby for the substantive motion, then the electorate can decide who the serious politicians are and who the opportunistic war mongers are.
The final added facet that these pair must be exposed if using is any wttempt to stir up racial and religious hatred on our streets in any way shape of form.
(It's a reference to Lowe's time as Chairman of Southampton FC, any Wodehouse tropes are purely coincidental. Honest.)
There's no way that Lowe and Farage are sitting on the same Cabinet.