A lot depends on tonight's by election. If the Greens win then no Labour seat is safe and they could overtake the Tories and Labour as main challengers to Reform
It also means YourParty is dead on arrival.
Absolutely no point if Greens win this by-election.
YP self-destructed even more convincingly than did ChangeUK.
Meanwhile Farage has just announced a big Reform rally on the island in less than two weeks’ time.
Readers added context Tactical Choice is a ficticious tactical voting group, apparently invented by Labour during this by-election campaign.
huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-a…
Two real tactical voting organisations have recommended voting Green to stop Reform.
tactical.vote/gorton-and-den… stopthetories.vote/parl/gorton-an… Do you find this helpful?
If you click on the tactical choice website on X it takes you to the green party website.
Someone is having fun...
Disgusting IMO
The original leaflet? Agreed.
The twitter handle? I'm just confused. It apparently existed since 2022. And if it was invented by Labour why would it direct to the Green Party and be calling out Labour's fake leaflet?
I can only guess that the Greens are behind the Twitter account and are attempting to limit the damage from the leaflet/using Labour's dirty tricks against them.
I've got a funny feeling these odds won't prove to be entirely accurate wrt the result.
Given its a single event, how would you even know whether they were accurate or not?
The Reform odds are comparable to rolling a 1 on a fair d6. If Reform wins, were the odds wrong? Or are we just in the universe where somebody just rolled a natural 1 on the die?
Improbable things happening in a single event doesn't prove the odds were wrong.
If it's a very close 3-way result, those odds at 10pm weren't very accurate.
a) Labour vote seems to be collapsing b) Huge amount of switching to Greens c) Reform think Greens will win, with Labour third d) Very significant Labour to Green switching amongst Muslim vote d) Senior Labour source says they think Greens, with Labour second
a) Labour vote seems to be collapsing b) Huge amount of switching to Greens c) Reform think Greens will win, with Labour third d) Very significant Labour to Green switching amongst Muslim vote d) Senior Labour source says they think Greens, with Labour second
So on the basis Hodges is invariably wrong, I’m assuming a Labour win with Reform third
I've got a funny feeling these odds won't prove to be entirely accurate wrt the result.
Given its a single event, how would you even know whether they were accurate or not?
The Reform odds are comparable to rolling a 1 on a fair d6. If Reform wins, were the odds wrong? Or are we just in the universe where somebody just rolled a natural 1 on the die?
Improbable things happening in a single event doesn't prove the odds were wrong.
If it's a very close 3-way result, those odds at 10pm weren't very accurate.
Why?
Its certainly possible to have it be both close, and for those odds to be accurate.
Again the single-event is relevant. Its possible for those odds to be accurate and Reform wins. Its possible for those odds to be accurate and Labour wins. Its possible for those odds to be total bollocks and the Greens win.
I've got a funny feeling these odds won't prove to be entirely accurate wrt the result.
Given its a single event, how would you even know whether they were accurate or not?
The Reform odds are comparable to rolling a 1 on a fair d6. If Reform wins, were the odds wrong? Or are we just in the universe where somebody just rolled a natural 1 on the die?
Improbable things happening in a single event doesn't prove the odds were wrong.
If it's a very close 3-way result, those odds at 10pm weren't very accurate.
How many times have we seen the “received wisdom” of the betting market completely collapse on itself 5-10 minutes before the result?
I’m not putting a lot of faith in the odds this time.
I've got a funny feeling these odds won't prove to be entirely accurate wrt the result.
Given its a single event, how would you even know whether they were accurate or not?
The Reform odds are comparable to rolling a 1 on a fair d6. If Reform wins, were the odds wrong? Or are we just in the universe where somebody just rolled a natural 1 on the die?
Improbable things happening in a single event doesn't prove the odds were wrong.
If it's a very close 3-way result, those odds at 10pm weren't very accurate.
How many times have we seen the “received wisdom” of the betting market completely collapse on itself 5-10 minutes before the result?
I’m not putting a lot of faith in the odds this time.
Me neither!
Just saying that mathematically its impossible to know how accurate the odds are after the event.
Its like rolling a die once and deciding if its fair or not based on the outcome of one throw. You can't do that.
A lot depends on tonight's by election. If the Greens win then no Labour seat is safe and they could overtake the Tories and Labour as main challengers to Reform
It also means YourParty is dead on arrival.
Absolutely no point if Greens win this by-election.
And when it was all going so well for YP;
It was left to each of us to figure it out. Corbyn had won with 14. Sultana had seven. There were independents. So while at a national level Jezza and Zarah would be jointly in charge, Corbyn would be the leader in the Commons.
This was a work of some genius. Because Corbyn officially identifies himself as an Independent MP, Sultana is the only MP who claims to represent Your Party. So Jeremy is now the leader of a party to which he doesn’t belong. Politics as a piece of inspired performance art. It makes you proud to be British.
a) Labour vote seems to be collapsing b) Huge amount of switching to Greens c) Reform think Greens will win, with Labour third d) Very significant Labour to Green switching amongst Muslim vote d) Senior Labour source says they think Greens, with Labour second
So on the basis Hodges is invariably wrong, I’m assuming a Labour win with Reform third
Sounds more like he's spent the day in Gorton, with a focus on Levenshulme.
As the polls close in Gorton and Denton both the Greens and Labour are optimistic of victory. Labour mobilised a big ground game and Green canvassers reporting lots of switchers from Labour
I've got a funny feeling these odds won't prove to be entirely accurate wrt the result.
Given its a single event, how would you even know whether they were accurate or not?
The Reform odds are comparable to rolling a 1 on a fair d6. If Reform wins, were the odds wrong? Or are we just in the universe where somebody just rolled a natural 1 on the die?
Improbable things happening in a single event doesn't prove the odds were wrong.
If it's a very close 3-way result, those odds at 10pm weren't very accurate.
Why?
Its certainly possible to have it be both close, and for those odds to be accurate.
Again the single-event is relevant. Its possible for those odds to be accurate and Reform wins. Its possible for those odds to be accurate and Labour wins. Its possible for those odds to be total bollocks and the Greens win.
We can't know off one event.
Wouldn't you expect it to be about 3/1 for each candidate in that case?
Robert Peston on ITV News: "I don't think Labour are going to win."
Hodges thinks Reform isn’t going to win. Peston thinks Labour isn’t going to win. We just need Leon to pronounce that the Greens aren’t going to win, and the LibDems are nailed on for the surprise victory of the century….
a) Labour vote seems to be collapsing b) Huge amount of switching to Greens c) Reform think Greens will win, with Labour third d) Very significant Labour to Green switching amongst Muslim vote d) Senior Labour source says they think Greens, with Labour second
A stronger than expected Labour showing could pull Greens into second leaving Reform winners.
As I understand it, G&D is like chalk and cheese - one part has a lot of mainly white over 65s, the other twice as many voters but of Asian heritage.
When we say Asian heritage, are Indian heritage as pro Palestine anti Jew as much as the Moslem heritage? Or is there the “as you my enemy are staunchly for it, it makes me staunchly against it? in UK voting?
Turnout rumours are invariably bollocks, and usually way off.
I'm sticking with my 38% turnout prediction from yesterday.
My result prediction from yesterday was Green 31.8%, Ref 29.9%, Lab 28.8%.
You have a great PB record for turnout figures. 🙂
What is it based on?
My predictions are based on a mixture of everything I've read and heard over the course of the campaign. I can't really put my finger on any one thing and say this is the reason for it.
Green Party source as polls close in Gorton & Denton: "We've thrown everything at this election, and we know we've given Labour the scare of their life. We're confident that despite the Labour dirty tactics and the well-funded Reform machine, the Green vote has held up well."
I've got a funny feeling these odds won't prove to be entirely accurate wrt the result.
Given its a single event, how would you even know whether they were accurate or not?
The Reform odds are comparable to rolling a 1 on a fair d6. If Reform wins, were the odds wrong? Or are we just in the universe where somebody just rolled a natural 1 on the die?
Improbable things happening in a single event doesn't prove the odds were wrong.
If it's a very close 3-way result, those odds at 10pm weren't very accurate.
Why?
Its certainly possible to have it be both close, and for those odds to be accurate.
Again the single-event is relevant. Its possible for those odds to be accurate and Reform wins. Its possible for those odds to be accurate and Labour wins. Its possible for those odds to be total bollocks and the Greens win.
We can't know off one event.
Wouldn't you expect it to be about 3/1 for each candidate in that case?
Not the way it works.
Get a weighted die that has a 50% chance of landing on a 1. If you roll it once and it lands on a 6, does that prove its not weighted to a 1?
It being a close result is well-within the set of results that could occur if those odds were right. Its also well-within the set of results that could occur if 3/1 each was right.
Without more data, you can never know. To verify odds takes more than a single event.
Robert Peston on ITV News: "I don't think Labour are going to win."
Hodges thinks Reform isn’t going to win. Peston thinks Labour isn’t going to win. We just need Leon to pronounce that the Greens aren’t going to win, and the LibDems are nailed on for the surprise victory of the century….
The Workers Party despite not standing must be in with a shout
Green Party source as polls close in Gorton & Denton: "We've thrown everything at this election, and we know we've given Labour the scare of their life. We're confident that despite the Labour dirty tactics and the well-funded Reform machine, the Green vote has held up well."
Odd choice of words. "Held up well" sounds like it refers to the 13% they got last time, which is obviously not what they really mean.
Actually losing would be a good thing for him, I am sad to say. I doubt they would win this constituency again in the actual GE in 2029 and so he would either have to do the chicken run or give up on running against Jenrick when the old man finally hangs up his stupid tweedy cap.
Green Party source as polls close in Gorton & Denton: "We've thrown everything at this election, and we know we've given Labour the scare of their life. We're confident that despite the Labour dirty tactics and the well-funded Reform machine, the Green vote has held up well."
Odd choice of words. "Holding up well" sounds like it refers to the 13% they got last time, which is obviously not what they really mean.
I mean that would be extremely amusing, but I'm still expecting 29/28/27 with no idea who wins.
But with suspicion demographic in this seat is more of a Green mid term election protest vote, than one for Reform, and Goodwin can (and likely will in coming years) win Parliament constituency comfortably for Reform somewhere else in England.
a) Labour vote seems to be collapsing b) Huge amount of switching to Greens c) Reform think Greens will win, with Labour third d) Very significant Labour to Green switching amongst Muslim vote d) Senior Labour source says they think Greens, with Labour second
A stronger than expected Labour showing could pull Greens into second leaving Reform winners.
As I understand it, G&D is like chalk and cheese - one part has a lot of mainly white over 65s, the other twice as many voters but of Asian heritage.
When we say Asian heritage, are Indian heritage as pro Palestine anti Jew as much as the Moslem heritage? Or is there the “as you my enemy are staunchly for it, it makes me staunchly against it? in UK voting?
a) Labour vote seems to be collapsing b) Huge amount of switching to Greens c) Reform think Greens will win, with Labour third d) Very significant Labour to Green switching amongst Muslim vote d) Senior Labour source says they think Greens, with Labour second
Would be a shocker for Reform. If they got beaten by two parties to the left of them then it's ciao bella.
If that is reflected in the result then it needs to be added to Caerphilly as an indicator as to how strong a motivation to vote keeping out Reform is.
Quite a sound Reform voter seemed to be suggesting ID requirements turned away a fair amount, who may not have come back due to the rain. That probably affects Reform and perhaps the Greens, with a less solid GOTV operation, disproportionately, and perhaps Reform the most, as the Green vote is more middle class, the Reform vote more working class.
Green Party source as polls close in Gorton & Denton: "We've thrown everything at this election, and we know we've given Labour the scare of their life. We're confident that despite the Labour dirty tactics and the well-funded Reform machine, the Green vote has held up well."
Those sound like the words of a party that thinks it has fallen short?
Robert Peston on ITV News: "I don't think Labour are going to win."
Hodges thinks Reform isn’t going to win. Peston thinks Labour isn’t going to win. We just need Leon to pronounce that the Greens aren’t going to win, and the LibDems are nailed on for the surprise victory of the century….
The Workers Party despite not standing must be in with a shout
a) Labour vote seems to be collapsing b) Huge amount of switching to Greens c) Reform think Greens will win, with Labour third d) Very significant Labour to Green switching amongst Muslim vote d) Senior Labour source says they think Greens, with Labour second
d) Amazing how all those folk who concrete over their gardens have become environmentalists.
Or perhaps it us the party thst has changed, rather than the voters?
The expectation management briefings tonight are WILD. It has been a fascinating by-election, but isn't going to really tell us much about The State Of The Nation.
So if the Greens or Labour do win the by-election what do you think the under/over line will be for the number of times I mention tomorrow that I tipped them at 6/1 and 10s respectively?
So if the Greens or Labour do win the by-election what do you think the under/over line will be for the number of times I mention tomorrow that I tipped them at 6/1 and 10s respectively?
I would expect to see it in at least one thread header.
They're dancing around handbags. Its patrician voting where certain kinds of muslim men have total control over their households. Or to really add to the fun, many of them get instructions from the Iman how to vote.
As described to me by a long-standing politician of British-Pakistani heritage...
Angeliki Stogia is no Andy Burnham Zack Polanski is God (of loud speaking transport based pessimism Nigel Farage has found Doom Bar is very flat in Manchester
I know that Labour are hoping their postal operation will save them. But Labour effectively withdrew when they banned the King of the North being the candidate. So a postal campaign on people who've decided to punish you isn't always a good idea...
Lloyds stops opening bank accounts for customers at branches
Campaigners warn high streets ‘are being hollowed out’ as lender drives customers to app
Britain’s biggest bank is to stop opening accounts for customers at its branches and instead force them to go online.
Lloyds Bank’s staff will no longer open joint, premium or student accounts in branches or switch customers from another lender – a move that critics warned signalled “the death of branch banking”.
Instead, staff will direct customers to use its app and website, according to internal documents seen by The Telegraph.
It comes as the bank shuts more than 100 branches across the country, adding to the 1,470 sites it has already closed over the past decade. Last week, Lloyds scrapped the option for customers to deposit cheques at the Post Office despite the closures.
Martin Quinn, of the group Campaign for Cash, said: “In-person bank branch services are vital for consumers. People do not want to talk to a machine, they want to deal with real people.
“High streets up and down the country are being hollowed out by shop closures and removing more face to face banking services is a real kick in the teeth.”
So if the Greens or Labour do win the by-election what do you think the under/over line will be for the number of times I mention tomorrow that I tipped them at 6/1 and 10s respectively?
TBF I owe you a pint as it prompted me to get on the Greens at 9/2 with a quite large amount.
They're dancing around handbags. Its patrician voting where certain kinds of muslim men have total control over their households. Or to really add to the fun, many of them get instructions from the Iman how to vote.
As described to me by a long-standing politician of British-Pakistani heritage...
As a young political activist in the early 80s,I was staggered by how many of my peers still voted exactly the way their parents did.
Would see families with late teens and early 20s kids turn up to vote and of you were tallying outside to cross off promised votes, the senior male would tell you "we've all voted Xxxx".
So if the Greens or Labour do win the by-election what do you think the under/over line will be for the number of times I mention tomorrow that I tipped them at 6/1 and 10s respectively?
TBF I owe you a pint as it prompted me to get on the Greens at 9/2 with a quite large amount.
Comments
Restore Britain would legalise pepper spraying sex pests.
https://x.com/RestoreBritain_/status/2027107825642598751
Reform need a win to regain momentum, rather than be eclipsed.
Meanwhile Farage has just announced a big Reform rally on the island in less than two weeks’ time.
Greens 1/2 William Hill
Reform 4/1 SkyBet
Lab 11/2 Ladbrokes
The twitter handle? I'm just confused. It apparently existed since 2022. And if it was invented by Labour why would it direct to the Green Party and be calling out Labour's fake leaflet?
I can only guess that the Greens are behind the Twitter account and are attempting to limit the damage from the leaflet/using Labour's dirty tricks against them.
But it might all be complete bollocks.
What is it based on?
So spent the day in Gorton & Denton:
a) Labour vote seems to be collapsing
b) Huge amount of switching to Greens
c) Reform think Greens will win, with Labour third
d) Very significant Labour to Green switching amongst Muslim vote
d) Senior Labour source says they think Greens, with Labour second
They're pretty pro-Trump, and I'm sure he isn't a stranger to the ol' pepper spray.
Perhaps they're just having a fit of honesty?
Its certainly possible to have it be both close, and for those odds to be accurate.
Again the single-event is relevant. Its possible for those odds to be accurate and Reform wins. Its possible for those odds to be accurate and Labour wins. Its possible for those odds to be total bollocks and the Greens win.
We can't know off one event.
I’m not putting a lot of faith in the odds this time.
Ben Walker
@BNHWalker
10pm
Here's what I know:
1. Turnout is looking to be very good for a by-election.
If it's extremely high relative to 2024 the Greens have it, in that they have turned out an astonishing number of new voters.
If it's high(ish), Labour sound like they might have the numbers.
Ben Walker
@BNHWalker
·
51s
2. Both experienced Labour and Green activists don't think Reform have the numbers to win. Sounds like 10k or thereabouts.
Just saying that mathematically its impossible to know how accurate the odds are after the event.
Its like rolling a die once and deciding if its fair or not based on the outcome of one throw. You can't do that.
YourParty wouldn’t be able to organise the string.
Well done Starmer on the victory.
As the polls close in Gorton and Denton both the Greens and Labour are optimistic of victory. Labour mobilised a big ground game and Green canvassers reporting lots of switchers from Labour
As I understand it, G&D is like chalk and cheese - one part has a lot of mainly white over 65s, the other twice as many voters but of Asian heritage.
When we say Asian heritage, are Indian heritage as pro Palestine anti Jew as much as the Moslem heritage? Or is there the “as you my enemy are staunchly for it, it makes me staunchly against it? in UK voting?
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
19s
Labour sources say their hope is the postal votes. Admit they’ve been heavily outpolled on the day.
Green 1.36
Reform 7.2
Lab 6.3
We may know who hasnt won (Workers Party of GB)
Green Party source as polls close in Gorton & Denton: "We've thrown everything at this election, and we know we've given Labour the scare of their life. We're confident that despite the Labour dirty tactics and the well-funded Reform machine, the Green vote has held up well."
Get a weighted die that has a 50% chance of landing on a 1. If you roll it once and it lands on a 6, does that prove its not weighted to a 1?
It being a close result is well-within the set of results that could occur if those odds were right. Its also well-within the set of results that could occur if 3/1 each was right.
Without more data, you can never know. To verify odds takes more than a single event.
Greens think they may have squeaked it
They believe Reform will come second, and Labour in third place.
Very bold
Survation post at 10.00 on possible implications for the local elections, but worth a quick read imho.
https://youtu.be/KPnqT2iUdMY?si=ep7Ef9z2LDWDtwzQ
Quite a sound Reform voter seemed to be suggesting ID requirements turned away a fair amount, who may not have come back due to the rain. That probably affects Reform and perhaps the Greens, with a less solid GOTV operation, disproportionately, and perhaps Reform the most, as the Green vote is more middle class, the Reform vote more working class.
Someone that sums up our political age.
Pretty downbeat messaging from Labour at close of polls…
https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2027146993559339443?s=20
Or perhaps it us the party thst has changed, rather than the voters?
Sharp practices at the polling station?
I’ve topped up a bit on Reform. They’ve drifted, but I still think there’s a plausible chance they’ll come through the middle.
This is bad. Very bad.
https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2027142542685311359
The impending by-election result nobody can predict will affirm the pre-existing views of everyone.
As described to me by a long-standing politician of British-Pakistani heritage...
White
Ref 41%
Grn 23%
Lab 22%
Con 5%
LD 3%
EM
Grn 37%
Lab 36%
Ref 8%
Con 7%
LD 5%
https://x.com/LeoKearse/status/2026810162648887532/photo/1
Angeliki Stogia is no Andy Burnham
Zack Polanski is God (of loud speaking transport based pessimism
Nigel Farage has found Doom Bar is very flat in Manchester
I know that Labour are hoping their postal operation will save them. But Labour effectively withdrew when they banned the King of the North being the candidate. So a postal campaign on people who've decided to punish you isn't always a good idea...
Special discount on new bathroom for the Khan’s. 👩🔧
Best price on Greens still 1/2 with WH
Reform/Lab best odds on Exchanges
You are still Muslim and dont drink arent you?
Zack Polanski: "I believe we have come 1st or 2nd place"
Labour: "By-elections are always difficult for incumbent Governments and this one has been no different"
Reform source: "Very tight between us and the Greens" - and predicts Labour will slip down to a "poor third"
Would see families with late teens and early 20s kids turn up to vote and of you were tallying outside to cross off promised votes, the senior male would tell you "we've all voted Xxxx".