I don't know whether we should read too much into it but it's interesting to see the Tory 'Herd' make a comeback. It's been building for a few weeks now. Big G is the most obvious followed by Taz. Moon Rabbit too though I sense she could turn into a fifth columnist at the slightest flick of Kemi's eyelash. Quite what LuckyGuy thinks he's doing taking PMQ's off is something I can\'t understand though Wooiedyed is proving an able stand in.
Time to remove the R.I.P from Kemi's Tories perhaps?
Im considering rejoining the party for the first time since 2010 (as a member) so i'm probably as herd adjacent as ive been in a long time
Looking at the YouGov data tables, there has been some reversal in the move of 2024 Conservative voters to Reform but it's still just over a quarter. The Conservatives are retaining 63% of their 2024 vote and have picked up tiny amounts from other parties.
The move from Conservative to Reform is matched by the 20% of 2024 Labour voters who have gone to the Greens (and exceeded numerically).
The YouGov sub sample (go on, I don't care) for England has Reform on 24%, Conservative 20%, Labour 19%, Green 19% and LD 15%.
That's Reform +9, Conservative -6, Labour -15, Green +12 and LD +2 which isn't a huge surprise.
Looking ahead to May and you'd not be surprised by the thought both Conservatives and Labour are going to take a beating from the voters - Labour have much more to lose as they are defending 2,196 or more than 40% of the seats being contested while the Conservatives are defending 1,134 (more than 20%).
I'd throw out 500 Labour losses and 250 Conservative losses as a first thought.
The problem for the Tories is that they are still leaking even voters who voted for them in 2024. Yet Kemi is not picking up swing voters who voted Labour or LD in 2024 having voted Conservative in 2019 and now lean Reform or LD with a few still backing Labour and who she needs to compensate if she cannot win back all the 2024 Tories now backing Reform.
Cleverly might have a bit more appeal to those swing voters so Kemi needs to ensure a second place for the Tories ahead of Labour in May to secure her position
She's also blocking the one who would out score even Gentleman James.
I don't know whether we should read too much into it but it's interesting to see the Tory 'Herd' make a comeback. It's been building for a few weeks now. Big G is the most obvious followed by Taz. Moon Rabbit too though I sense she could turn into a fifth columnist at the slightest flick of Kemi's eyelash. Quite what LuckyGuy thinks he's doing taking PMQ's off is something I can\'t understand though Wooiedyed is proving an able stand in.
Time to remove the R.I.P from Kemi's Tories perhaps?
Im considering rejoining the party for the first time since 2010 (as a member) so i'm probably as herd adjacent as ive been in a long time
Looking at the YouGov data tables, there has been some reversal in the move of 2024 Conservative voters to Reform but it's still just over a quarter. The Conservatives are retaining 63% of their 2024 vote and have picked up tiny amounts from other parties.
The move from Conservative to Reform is matched by the 20% of 2024 Labour voters who have gone to the Greens (and exceeded numerically).
The YouGov sub sample (go on, I don't care) for England has Reform on 24%, Conservative 20%, Labour 19%, Green 19% and LD 15%.
That's Reform +9, Conservative -6, Labour -15, Green +12 and LD +2 which isn't a huge surprise.
Looking ahead to May and you'd not be surprised by the thought both Conservatives and Labour are going to take a beating from the voters - Labour have much more to lose as they are defending 2,196 or more than 40% of the seats being contested while the Conservatives are defending 1,134 (more than 20%).
I'd throw out 500 Labour losses and 250 Conservative losses as a first thought.
The problem for the Tories is that they are still leaking even voters who voted for them in 2024. Yet Kemi is not picking up swing voters who voted Labour or LD in 2024 having voted Conservative in 2019 and now lean Reform or LD with a few still backing Labour and who she needs to compensate if she cannot win back all the 2024 Tories now backing Reform.
Cleverly might have a bit more appeal to those swing voters so Kemi needs to ensure a second place for the Tories ahead of Labour in May to secure her position
She's also blocking the one who would out score even Gentleman James.
Have Labour tried attacking the Greens or just trying to pretend only they can stop Reform in Gorton and Denton?
I think, like with the Lib Dem’s, they’re friendly enemies.
They oppose Reform and the Tories more so my enemies enemy is my friend. They will learn a hard lesson.
Actually I've just found a piece that states Labour have been quite shocked at the Greens turning themselves into a hideous George Galloway/Respect tribute act.
James Frayne in Telegraph is pointing out how hard the Greens are going to find keeping their new found tribe together when it is increasingly a mix of very socially conservative muslim voters who want action on Gaza etc and the young corbyn lefty ultra progressives who want to talk about trans rights all day long.
The same mindset that sees Green supporters as late rising, lentil munching, chai drinking devotees of Tantric sex #fingeronthepulse
I can think of one subject over which they’ll find lots of common ground.
The same mix did seem to cause problems for Your Party.
While the lentil muncher is very much outdated, the Greens also have a large constituency of fairly conservative conservationists.
Holding together a broad coalition is a LOT more difficult these days, and surely even more so if you're a party that has 'purer' moral positions.
I think the main problem Your Party faced/faces is Zarah Sultana's toxicity combined with Jeremy Corbyn's dithering.
Zarah Sultana is one of those politicians (of which there are some in every party) who very much thinks that her influence and political talents are far greater than they actually are.
Dianne Abbott Rosie Dangerfield Rachel Maskell Rebecca Long Bailey Kemi Badenoch Richard Burgon
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The fragrant Penny
Courteous
Classy
But also incredibly tough when she needs to be.
Rosie Dangerfield
Rachel Maskell
Rebecca Long Bailey
Kemi Badenoch
Richard Burgon