State of the Union: Gov. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia will give the Democrats’ response.
NY Times blog
State of the Nation. State of this “game face”
What PB is missing. Considering Trump satisfaction ratings are not good, the Democratic Party satisfaction ratings have not been great over the last year either.
It’s good to flag up differences between US and UK politics. We don’t have presidential elections - President Gordon Brown or President Nigel Farage are two strong reasons UK will NEVER NEVER NEVER give up our Monarchy as head of State. Our PM needs to command the House of Commons. Would it be stronger for Democratic Party today, stronger for US politics, if their candidate for next US president was already known, and providing the State of the Nation replies?
Usually the reply to the State of the Union is given by a nonentity who then vanishes without trace. See that mad Senator Katie Britt from Alabama who replied to Biden a few years back and has vanished without trace other than being the butt of a thousand jokes.
Because of the way the primary system works you have a tendency for the candidates already known and with a significant body of work behind them to emerge victorious, even if it's a fake one like The Apprentice. They will be governors, high profile senators or ex-cabinet ministers (and only Trump since 1952 doesn't fit one of those categories). Replying to the State of the Union is of little bearing in building such a profile. Indeed, the fact she's speaking at all is probably a sign Spanberger isn't considering a bid.
The fact she is a formal intelligence officer, is probably a sign why she has been chosen to respond? The type of response they plan, backed up by her expertise?
And the fact her ancestors lived near a beautiful bridge or something in Germany reminds us of the narrow vote just selecting English over German as the national language of the United States? Before they then changed it to a language that says things like miss-ull for missile, and now Hispanic is the main language.
English being spoken in North America makes sense as it’s part of English Empire. If story true there was such a close vote, this would be before Germany actually existed? Any reason for so many Germanic speaking people moving there from where they were? What was unattractive in Germanic Europe? Technically nineteenth century was all on the up for them?
Er...okay. I don't know what a formal intelligence officer is - is it one who admits to being bought by the Russians (which would make Tulsi Gabbard an informal one, presumably)?
I also never realised that 'Davis' had anything to do with Germany or indeed bridges, but if you say so. It sounds Welsh to me, if I'm honest.
Edit - I think Spanberger might be Dutch rather than German, but I'm not an expert on Germanic languages.
Muhlenberg!
I have an answer, hold on a moment! It’s new to me and it’s interesting. 🧐🧫🔬🧪
No, there was never a narrow vote in America that decided between English and German as the official national language. That story is a persistent urban legend known as the "Muhlenberg Legend".
I think th vote would need to be split about 7 ways equally for the LDs to sneak through.
Imagine a voting catastrophe that seems everyone in the constituency unable to vote apart from the only Lib Dem in the village.
HEY IT COULD HAPPEN RIGHT
FWIW, in the last local elections there were two contests (in Bucks and Cornwall) where six candidates all got over 10% of the vote, and the "winner" was returned with less than 20%.
I know people who still think that FPTP is the best and only system for elections.....
State of the Union: Gov. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia will give the Democrats’ response.
NY Times blog
State of the Nation. State of this “game face”
What PB is missing. Considering Trump satisfaction ratings are not good, the Democratic Party satisfaction ratings have not been great over the last year either.
It’s good to flag up differences between US and UK politics. We don’t have presidential elections - President Gordon Brown or President Nigel Farage are two strong reasons UK will NEVER NEVER NEVER give up our Monarchy as head of State. Our PM needs to command the House of Commons. Would it be stronger for Democratic Party today, stronger for US politics, if their candidate for next US president was already known, and providing the State of the Nation replies?
Usually the reply to the State of the Union is given by a nonentity who then vanishes without trace. See that mad Senator Katie Britt from Alabama who replied to Biden a few years back and has vanished without trace other than being the butt of a thousand jokes.
Because of the way the primary system works you have a tendency for the candidates already known and with a significant body of work behind them to emerge victorious, even if it's a fake one like The Apprentice. They will be governors, high profile senators or ex-cabinet ministers (and only Trump since 1952 doesn't fit one of those categories). Replying to the State of the Union is of little bearing in building such a profile. Indeed, the fact she's speaking at all is probably a sign Spanberger isn't considering a bid.
The fact she is a formal intelligence officer, is probably a sign why she has been chosen to respond? The type of response they plan, backed up by her expertise?
And the fact her ancestors lived near a beautiful bridge or something in Germany reminds us of the narrow vote just selecting English over German as the national language of the United States? Before they then changed it to a language that says things like miss-ull for missile, and now Hispanic is the main language.
English being spoken in North America makes sense as it’s part of English Empire. If story true there was such a close vote, this would be before Germany actually existed? Any reason for so many Germanic speaking people moving there from where they were? What was unattractive in Germanic Europe? Technically nineteenth century was all on the up for them?
Er...okay. I don't know what a formal intelligence officer is - is it one who admits to being bought by the Russians (which would make Tulsi Gabbard an informal one, presumably)?
I also never realised that 'Davis' had anything to do with Germany or indeed bridges, but if you say so. It sounds Welsh to me, if I'm honest.
Edit - I think Spanberger might be Dutch rather than German, but I'm not an expert on Germanic languages.
Muhlenberg!
I have an answer, hold on a moment! It’s new to me and it’s interesting. 🧐🧫🔬🧪
No, there was never a narrow vote in America that decided between English and German as the official national language. That story is a persistent urban legend known as the "Muhlenberg Legend".
Here are the facts regarding the legend vs. reality: The Legend (What is often believed) The Story: In 1776 (or sometimes 1795), the Continental Congress or early US Congress held a vote to determine whether German should become the official language of the United States. The Vote: The motion failed by only one vote, cast by Frederick Muhlenberg, the first Speaker of the House, who was of German descent. The Outcome: Because of that single vote, English became the official language of the USA. Wikipedia Wikipedia +3 The Reality (What actually happened) No Official Language: The United States has never had an official national language, and no such bill was ever proposed. The 1795 Petition: In January 1795, the House of Representatives considered a petition from a group of German-Americans in Virginia (not Pennsylvania) asking for federal laws to be printed in German as well as English. The Close Vote: On January 13, 1795, a motion to adjourn and consider the request later was defeated by one vote, 42 to 41. This was a procedural vote regarding the petition, not a vote to make German the national language. The Outcome: The proposal for translation was rejected, and a bill was later passed in February 1795 to publish laws in English only. The National Constitution Center The National Constitution Center +3 Origins of the Myth The Speaker: Frederick Muhlenberg did not actually cast the deciding vote in that 1795 congressional procedural vote. Propaganda: The myth was likely popularized in the 1930s-1940s as German-American Bund (Nazi-influenced) propaganda, though it appeared in various forms as early as 1847 in a book by German travel writer Franz von Löher. Misinterpretation: The legend likely stems from a combination of the 42-41 vote, anti-German sentiment in Pennsylvania in the 1750s, and later anti-German sentiment during WWI. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign +4
I think th vote would need to be split about 7 ways equally for the LDs to sneak through.
Imagine a voting catastrophe that seems everyone in the constituency unable to vote apart from the only Lib Dem in the village.
HEY IT COULD HAPPEN RIGHT
FWIW, in the last local elections there were two contests (in Bucks and Cornwall) where six candidates all got over 10% of the vote, and the "winner" was returned with less than 20%.
I know people who still think that FPTP is the best and only system for elections.....
All systems have strengths and weaknesses, but when we seem to be increasingly getting PR like vote shares FPTP's weaknesses are more prominent.
Youd least want to be Reform on that polling. Not even winning with a perfectly split left wing vote. Just about doubling their vote since 2024 in by election conditions vs a desperately unpopular govt? If thats the result lay the hell out of Ref win in 29
It's a very left wing constituency though. Reform+Tory 22% La+Green+Workers 74% at the GE. If anyone is placed to capitalise on Labour unpopularity it is the Greens.
It was also 50% Leave, it may be traditionally Labour but only half of it is progressive woke, the other half is white working class socially conservative
However thete is a "left" Brexit ideology that probably won't vote for Reform
The Telegraph just run with any old shit Farage tells them Like the '6 councils in London' bollocks Now, Birmingham
I’m sure Farage doesn’t have them on speed dial just as I’m sure Reform will be lucky to pick up more than a couple of seats in Brum.
Are you sure? Birmingham is very "flaggy". Labour are dead in the water and the Tories have already sunk without trace.
The only flags I’ve seen are Palestine ones by the Blues Ground !
I’d not expect Sutton C to go but I’d defer to Feersum Enjineeya on that if he has a different view as he’s local and he has canvassed there.
Maybe Bartley Green, Castle Bromwich, around Northfield. What parts have you been too that are flaggy ?
I may well be wrong but I just think City demographics work against them in Brum in a way they don’t in places like Sandwell, Tipton, Dudley and Walsall.
Kingstanding is very flaggy, it's a thoroughly WWC area. I'd bet on Reform taking wards around there and maybe other parts of Erdington. You may be right about Sutton though - it's mostly moderate conservatives of the type you'd expect to stay conservative. But I have seen a fair amount of support for Reform around here, so who knows?
My first job was an apprentice at Lucas in College Road. It was certainly WWC back then in 1982. I’ve not been back in Donkeys, I’d assumed its demographics had shifted.
State of the Union: Gov. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia will give the Democrats’ response.
NY Times blog
State of the Nation. State of this “game face”
What PB is missing. Considering Trump satisfaction ratings are not good, the Democratic Party satisfaction ratings have not been great over the last year either.
It’s good to flag up differences between US and UK politics. We don’t have presidential elections - President Gordon Brown or President Nigel Farage are two strong reasons UK will NEVER NEVER NEVER give up our Monarchy as head of State. Our PM needs to command the House of Commons. Would it be stronger for Democratic Party today, stronger for US politics, if their candidate for next US president was already known, and providing the State of the Nation replies?
Christ, she’s as dumb as Trump.
Is that the best they can do.
Maybe we should wait for the words coming out of her mouth, apparently she is a former officer of intelligence.
Greens have gone out slightly but still very well favoured on the machine. Market doesn't believe the poll tbh
I was just thinking the same. How can Labour be 5/1 on the back of that poll?
Labour should be favourites on the basis of that poll. You would think they have the party organisation and experience to get their vote out and seal the win.
But I guess the fallibility of Starmer makes it hard to believe that Labour can win at all at the moment. And a party with such bad polling figures as they have shouldn't be winning any by-elections.
I know we're focused on whether a split left-wing vote will hand Reform victory, but we're also seeing the potential for a split opposition vote to hand victory to a monumentally unpopular government. Might the same happen in a GE?
State of the Union: Gov. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia will give the Democrats’ response.
NY Times blog
State of the Nation. State of this “game face”
What PB is missing. Considering Trump satisfaction ratings are not good, the Democratic Party satisfaction ratings have not been great over the last year either.
It’s good to flag up differences between US and UK politics. We don’t have presidential elections - President Gordon Brown or President Nigel Farage are two strong reasons UK will NEVER NEVER NEVER give up our Monarchy as head of State. Our PM needs to command the House of Commons. Would it be stronger for Democratic Party today, stronger for US politics, if their candidate for next US president was already known, and providing the State of the Nation replies?
Usually the reply to the State of the Union is given by a nonentity who then vanishes without trace. See that mad Senator Katie Britt from Alabama who replied to Biden a few years back and has vanished without trace other than being the butt of a thousand jokes.
Because of the way the primary system works you have a tendency for the candidates already known and with a significant body of work behind them to emerge victorious, even if it's a fake one like The Apprentice. They will be governors, high profile senators or ex-cabinet ministers (and only Trump since 1952 doesn't fit one of those categories). Replying to the State of the Union is of little bearing in building such a profile. Indeed, the fact she's speaking at all is probably a sign Spanberger isn't considering a bid.
The fact she is a formal intelligence officer, is probably a sign why she has been chosen to respond? The type of response they plan, backed up by her expertise?
And the fact her ancestors lived near a beautiful bridge or something in Germany reminds us of the narrow vote just selecting English over German as the national language of the United States? Before they then changed it to a language that says things like miss-ull for missile, and now Hispanic is the main language.
English being spoken in North America makes sense as it’s part of English Empire. If story true there was such a close vote, this would be before Germany actually existed? Any reason for so many Germanic speaking people moving there from where they were? What was unattractive in Germanic Europe? Technically nineteenth century was all on the up for them?
State of the Union: Gov. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia will give the Democrats’ response.
NY Times blog
State of the Nation. State of this “game face”
What PB is missing. Considering Trump satisfaction ratings are not good, the Democratic Party satisfaction ratings have not been great over the last year either.
It’s good to flag up differences between US and UK politics. We don’t have presidential elections - President Gordon Brown or President Nigel Farage are two strong reasons UK will NEVER NEVER NEVER give up our Monarchy as head of State. Our PM needs to command the House of Commons. Would it be stronger for Democratic Party today, stronger for US politics, if their candidate for next US president was already known, and providing the State of the Nation replies?
Christ, she’s as dumb as Trump.
Is that the best they can do.
Maybe we should wait for the words coming out of her mouth, apparently she is a former officer of intelligence.
Maybe some of us are familiar with her already to make a judgement.
State of the Union: Gov. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia will give the Democrats’ response.
NY Times blog
State of the Nation. State of this “game face”
What PB is missing. Considering Trump satisfaction ratings are not good, the Democratic Party satisfaction ratings have not been great over the last year either.
It’s good to flag up differences between US and UK politics. We don’t have presidential elections - President Gordon Brown or President Nigel Farage are two strong reasons UK will NEVER NEVER NEVER give up our Monarchy as head of State. Our PM needs to command the House of Commons. Would it be stronger for Democratic Party today, stronger for US politics, if their candidate for next US president was already known, and providing the State of the Nation replies?
Usually the reply to the State of the Union is given by a nonentity who then vanishes without trace. See that mad Senator Katie Britt from Alabama who replied to Biden a few years back and has vanished without trace other than being the butt of a thousand jokes.
Because of the way the primary system works you have a tendency for the candidates already known and with a significant body of work behind them to emerge victorious, even if it's a fake one like The Apprentice. They will be governors, high profile senators or ex-cabinet ministers (and only Trump since 1952 doesn't fit one of those categories). Replying to the State of the Union is of little bearing in building such a profile. Indeed, the fact she's speaking at all is probably a sign Spanberger isn't considering a bid.
The fact she is a formal intelligence officer, is probably a sign why she has been chosen to respond? The type of response they plan, backed up by her expertise?
And the fact her ancestors lived near a beautiful bridge or something in Germany reminds us of the narrow vote just selecting English over German as the national language of the United States? Before they then changed it to a language that says things like miss-ull for missile, and now Hispanic is the main language.
English being spoken in North America makes sense as it’s part of English Empire. If story true there was such a close vote, this would be before Germany actually existed? Any reason for so many Germanic speaking people moving there from where they were? What was unattractive in Germanic Europe? Technically nineteenth century was all on the up for them?
Short answer is the story is a myth. Its not true.
There were a lot of Germanic settlers in the USA though.
“ Short answer is the story is a myth. It’s not true.”
Greens have gone out slightly but still very well favoured on the machine. Market doesn't believe the poll tbh
I was just thinking the same. How can Labour be 5/1 on the back of that poll?
If, as you are being led to believe, Greens on a maximum of 26% then that leaves a full 19% for others. No way 4th and below aren't getting squeezed lower than that.
The actual implication here is that Green are low-mid 30s and the bar chart deals with the battle for second place.
State of the Union: Gov. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia will give the Democrats’ response.
NY Times blog
State of the Nation. State of this “game face”
What PB is missing. Considering Trump satisfaction ratings are not good, the Democratic Party satisfaction ratings have not been great over the last year either.
It’s good to flag up differences between US and UK politics. We don’t have presidential elections - President Gordon Brown or President Nigel Farage are two strong reasons UK will NEVER NEVER NEVER give up our Monarchy as head of State. Our PM needs to command the House of Commons. Would it be stronger for Democratic Party today, stronger for US politics, if their candidate for next US president was already known, and providing the State of the Nation replies?
Christ, she’s as dumb as Trump.
Is that the best they can do.
Maybe we should wait for the words coming out of her mouth, apparently she is a former officer of intelligence.
Maybe some of us are familiar with her already to make a judgement.
Is that you with familiarity with Spamburgers?
What is your judgement then - is she going to wow us in her response? 🙂
If Labour do hold a lot of it will be down to three things. 1) Reform making it all about Reform v Green. 2) Greens making it all about Reform v Green. 3) Andy Burnham getting properly stuck in.
State of the Union: Gov. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia will give the Democrats’ response.
NY Times blog
State of the Nation. State of this “game face”
What PB is missing. Considering Trump satisfaction ratings are not good, the Democratic Party satisfaction ratings have not been great over the last year either.
It’s good to flag up differences between US and UK politics. We don’t have presidential elections - President Gordon Brown or President Nigel Farage are two strong reasons UK will NEVER NEVER NEVER give up our Monarchy as head of State. Our PM needs to command the House of Commons. Would it be stronger for Democratic Party today, stronger for US politics, if their candidate for next US president was already known, and providing the State of the Nation replies?
Christ, she’s as dumb as Trump.
Is that the best they can do.
Maybe we should wait for the words coming out of her mouth, apparently she is a former officer of intelligence.
Maybe some of us are familiar with her already to make a judgement.
I think President G Brown would be an improvement on the House of Windsor but there's F all chance of it being him. Better the greedy, ethic-less, over-privileged idiots you know than what the public would vote in sadly.
If Reform win it will only be because neither Labour nor the Greens will concede the other is best placed to beat Reform in Gorton and Denton, combined the leftwing parties could well have over 50%.
I would laugh out loud if the result was Reform 29% Labour 28% Greens 28%
If Reform win it will only be because neither Labour nor the Greens will concede the other is best placed to beat Reform, combined the leftwing parties could well have over 50%.
I would laugh out loud if the result was Reform 29% Labour 28% Greens 28%
I would laugh even louder if Goodwin and Reform got their marching orders
To be fair. We're second in every ward, and that may just be enough has been the Labour spin since day one. Has anyone ever won a seat without winning a single ward?*
*A question without an answer since we don't have ward level results. But I doubt it.
State of the Union: Gov. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia will give the Democrats’ response.
NY Times blog
State of the Nation. State of this “game face”
What PB is missing. Considering Trump satisfaction ratings are not good, the Democratic Party satisfaction ratings have not been great over the last year either.
It’s good to flag up differences between US and UK politics. We don’t have presidential elections - President Gordon Brown or President Nigel Farage are two strong reasons UK will NEVER NEVER NEVER give up our Monarchy as head of State. Our PM needs to command the House of Commons. Would it be stronger for Democratic Party today, stronger for US politics, if their candidate for next US president was already known, and providing the State of the Nation replies?
Christ, she’s as dumb as Trump.
Is that the best they can do.
Maybe we should wait for the words coming out of her mouth, apparently she is a former officer of intelligence.
Maybe some of us are familiar with her already to make a judgement.
Is that you with familiarity with Spamburgers?
What is your judgement then - is she going to wow us in her response? 🙂
If it’s anything like her head to head debates with Winsome, then no. She will be better than Trump but that’s a low bar.
Greens have gone out slightly but still very well favoured on the machine. Market doesn't believe the poll tbh
I was just thinking the same. How can Labour be 5/1 on the back of that poll?
Labour is shouting out value. It's a stastical polling three way tie. Reform have used all their firepower on the Greens.
It will be quite funny if Reform come third.
It shouldn't be a major blow to them if that were to happen, though it would be amusing if it rocked their self confidence nonetheless.
It could well happen, I've had a Reform third place as a distinct possibility all along, though my central prediction was that they edged out Labour.
The narrative here could be that Reform were bang on their national vote share in G&D at the GE, but only get 25-26% in the by election, comfortably below their current polling, and that the losing narrative feeds in to their polling. I think that would be a mistaken narrative, I think there is an enthusiastic voter base for Reform in G&D but not a high ceiling. A 26% vote share here could well be consistent with 30% nationally. Not that little old me can stop the narrative
Equally, a Labour win could well be Labour's Batley and Spen moment of this parliament, the start of the build back.
If Reform win it will only be because neither Labour nor the Greens will concede the other is best placed to beat Reform in Gorton and Denton, combined the leftwing parties could well have over 50%.
I would laugh out loud if the result was Reform 29% Labour 28% Greens 28%
Votes for Green and Labour here are quite different. One is an acceptance, if not endorsement, of the status quo, the other is for radical change.
In some ways Green are closer to Reform than Labour in this particular context.
We have three polls. The way to combine them is not just to average them, but to take an average weighted by the sample sizes. Do that and we get...
Green 30% Reform 29% Labour 28% Con 6% LD 3% oth 5%
If I had a vote I would vote for the conservative candidate who seems very switched on and I hope my fellow conservatives stay loyal and prevent a Reform win
If that happened it would be the icing on the cake
Byline have finally released their poll . What drama !
Green 28 Lab 28 Reform 27 Con 6 Lib Dem 4 Other 6
Greens lead 30 28 28 on 'most likely to vote' voters on the same poll GOTV crucial then!
The Greens haven't been canvassing apparently unlike Labour and Reform, only leafletting and putting up posters so it really could be any of the 3 on that poll
My entirely unscientific anecdotal evidence from living just beyond the seat boundary is that I've twice encountered Green canvassers when out and about, and not seen the others.
Matt Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 3h The penultimate 6pm canvass. Go hard until the very end. Four canvassing sessions tomorrow. Then the biggest Get Out The Vote Op British politics has seen maybe ever.
Have any undertakings been received from the Ayotollah?
I reckon the Iranians think Trump is a bottler.
Or put another way - someone who regards themselves as genius in the art of the deal, see’s it as his USP - is resulting to bombing instead of a deal, failure to them, and their USP?
Would be one of the oddest build ups of big military might in history, that didn’t go through with it, or feel pressure that it now had to in order to save face in eyes of watching world? Are there other examples?
Have any undertakings been received from the Ayotollah?
I reckon the Iranians think Trump is a bottler.
Or put another way - someone who regards themselves as genius in the art of the deal, see’s it as his USP - is resulting to bombing instead of a deal, failure to them, and their USP?
Would be one of the oddest build ups of big military might in history, that didn’t go through with it, or feel pressure that it now had to in order to save face in eyes of watching world? Are there other examples?
The grand old Duke of York comes to mind
Yes, just to leave the thread here - before the posting of very rude versions of old rhyme.
Comments
I know people who still think that FPTP is the best and only system for elections.....
The Legend (What is often believed)
The Story: In 1776 (or sometimes 1795), the Continental Congress or early US Congress held a vote to determine whether German should become the official language of the United States.
The Vote: The motion failed by only one vote, cast by Frederick Muhlenberg, the first Speaker of the House, who was of German descent.
The Outcome: Because of that single vote, English became the official language of the USA.
Wikipedia
Wikipedia
+3
The Reality (What actually happened)
No Official Language: The United States has never had an official national language, and no such bill was ever proposed.
The 1795 Petition: In January 1795, the House of Representatives considered a petition from a group of German-Americans in Virginia (not Pennsylvania) asking for federal laws to be printed in German as well as English.
The Close Vote: On January 13, 1795, a motion to adjourn and consider the request later was defeated by one vote, 42 to 41. This was a procedural vote regarding the petition, not a vote to make German the national language.
The Outcome: The proposal for translation was rejected, and a bill was later passed in February 1795 to publish laws in English only.
The National Constitution Center
The National Constitution Center
+3
Origins of the Myth
The Speaker: Frederick Muhlenberg did not actually cast the deciding vote in that 1795 congressional procedural vote.
Propaganda: The myth was likely popularized in the 1930s-1940s as German-American Bund (Nazi-influenced) propaganda, though it appeared in various forms as early as 1847 in a book by German travel writer Franz von Löher.
Misinterpretation: The legend likely stems from a combination of the 42-41 vote, anti-German sentiment in Pennsylvania in the 1750s, and later anti-German sentiment during WWI.
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
+4
Reform and the Greens have fans.
Labour have approximately zero fans right now- certainly Starmer Labour. But the votes of non-fans count just the same as votes of fans.
Or, from the betting market point of view- markets can stay irrational for an awfully long time.
But I guess the fallibility of Starmer makes it hard to believe that Labour can win at all at the moment. And a party with such bad polling figures as they have shouldn't be winning any by-elections.
I know we're focused on whether a split left-wing vote will hand Reform victory, but we're also seeing the potential for a split opposition vote to hand victory to a monumentally unpopular government. Might the same happen in a GE?
Yes you knew that. 👍🏻 An Urban Myth. 🙂
I'm calling it.
If it is 28-28-27 then the GOTV is going to win.
The actual implication here is that Green are low-mid 30s and the bar chart deals with the battle for second place.
What is your judgement then - is she going to wow us in her response? 🙂
I cannot see a market for 3rd place, only second on BFX.
1) Reform making it all about Reform v Green.
2) Greens making it all about Reform v Green.
3) Andy Burnham getting properly stuck in.
Better the greedy, ethic-less, over-privileged idiots you know than what the public would vote in sadly.
I would laugh out loud if the result was Reform 29% Labour 28% Greens 28%
Labour or Greens would be a good result
We're second in every ward, and that may just be enough has been the Labour spin since day one.
Has anyone ever won a seat without winning a single ward?*
*A question without an answer since we don't have ward level results. But I doubt it.
IMHO this should be much higher likelihood
The narrative here could be that Reform were bang on their national vote share in G&D at the GE, but only get 25-26% in the by election, comfortably below their current polling, and that the losing narrative feeds in to their polling. I think that would be a mistaken narrative, I think there is an enthusiastic voter base for Reform in G&D but not a high ceiling. A 26% vote share here could well be consistent with 30% nationally. Not that little old me can stop the narrative
Equally, a Labour win could well be Labour's Batley and Spen moment of this parliament, the start of the build back.
Green 30%
Reform 29%
Labour 28%
Con 6%
LD 3%
oth 5%
NEW THREAD
In some ways Green are closer to Reform than Labour in this particular context.
If that happened it would be the icing on the cake
@GoodwinMJ
·
3h
The penultimate 6pm canvass. Go hard until the very end. Four canvassing sessions tomorrow. Then the biggest Get Out The Vote Op British politics has seen maybe ever.
===
I don't think so matey. LOL.
There's about eighteen people in that photo
It’s been another long day of TSE’s holiday! 😴