I don't get it. Labour is f*cking screaming value at 7.
If they win it'll be a huge victory. The start of the Labour Renaissance. But I can't see it. Unless they've got an exceptional candidate which I don't believe they have my guess is the bookies have got it right
In fairness, while I don't know the Labour candidate, I know people whose views I respect who do know her, and she seems universally well-regarded among them.
'One thing the situation in Iran has made crystal clear is that whichever country, regime, group or political ideology, no matter how vile, disgusting or repressive, however many people are massacred or exterminated, as long as they are anti-West, specifically anti-US (and by extension anti-Israel), they will have the unquestioning support of the majority of the liberal left and the entertainment world.
The same “progressive left” who happily live in the west, profit from its relative freedoms, yet turn their activism on and off like a switch, or in some cases, even make a living out of it.
It is disappointing and exhausting.
But grateful to all those who have spoken out. Especially in the comedy community. It takes a lot of guts to do so when everyone around you is looking the other way.'
It would be a belter of a comment, if true. But it really isn't. As a fully-paid up member of the progressive left, absolutely nobody in the circles I move in thinks that the Iranian regime is anything other than vile and abhorrent.
But we also don't think that the USA is best placed to remove and replace that regime.
You obviously don’t hang out with the “We Stand With The Mullahs” types.
Must be sad times when the HQ of Tankiedom has run so low of tanks…
Bloomin' heck! Have you seen Dominic Dale's amazing technicolour dreamcoat at the Welsh open snooker?
Coincidentally, I was just looking for some snooker (my daughter is doing art homework and hopes for some sport she doesn't have to concentrate on in the background.) What channel is it on?
Labour's General Secretary has told an all-staff call that the Greens have no chance of winning the Gorton and Denton by-election on Thursday
"The Green Party are clearly high on the Class A drugs they want to legalise if they think they’re in this race. We know they’re not. They know they’re not. Our promise rate is very strong and we're seeing lots of anti-Reform undecideds come over to Labour. A vote for the Greens is a vote for Tommy Robinson’s candidate - Matt Goodwin"
Labour do certainly seem quite bullish. It’s making me question whether this could indeed be Labour vs Reform after all.
If Labour wins this it will be the political sensation of the century, and we will have to abandon everything we thought was true. Exciting...
Indeed. If you've got a history book at home, take it out, throw it in the bin – it's worthless. The history books will now have to be rewritten
Chris Morris: Im joined by our crisis correspondent Spartacus Mills. Spartacus this is huge history happening isn't it? Steve Coogan: it's bigger than that Chris it's large. I mean if you've got a history book at home take it out throw it in the bin it's worthless. The history books now will have to be rewritten.
'One thing the situation in Iran has made crystal clear is that whichever country, regime, group or political ideology, no matter how vile, disgusting or repressive, however many people are massacred or exterminated, as long as they are anti-West, specifically anti-US (and by extension anti-Israel), they will have the unquestioning support of the majority of the liberal left and the entertainment world.
The same “progressive left” who happily live in the west, profit from its relative freedoms, yet turn their activism on and off like a switch, or in some cases, even make a living out of it.
It is disappointing and exhausting.
But grateful to all those who have spoken out. Especially in the comedy community. It takes a lot of guts to do so when everyone around you is looking the other way.'
It would be a belter of a comment, if true. But it really isn't. As a fully-paid up member of the progressive left, absolutely nobody in the circles I move in thinks that the Iranian regime is anything other than vile and abhorrent.
But we also don't think that the USA is best placed to remove and replace that regime.
You obviously don’t hang out with the “We Stand With The Mullahs” types.
Must be sad times when the HQ of Tankiedom has run so low of tanks…
And you, even more obviously, don't hang out with the 'progressive left', which was cited in the comment. The extreme left may be a different matter.
"The arrest was prompted by a baseless suggestion that he was planning to leave the country and take up permanent residence abroad.
"There is absolutely no truth whatsoever in any such suggestion. We have asked the MPS [Metropolitan Police Service] for the evidence relied upon to justify the arrest. Peter Mandelson's overriding priority is to cooperate with the police investigation, as he has done throughout this process, and to clear his name."
Peter Mandelson is the victim in all this... Discuss... Without sniggering..😂😂😂
It isn't wisely invested now though. A lot of it is in empty High Street shops. If Government can find a way to gently: 1. Encourage pension funds to divest themselves of high street properties so they can be sold or rented at a realistic rate. 2. Reduce the burden of regulation, taxation and energy costs to a point where Britain's economy can once again compete, making it attractive for funds to invest. 3. Gently expand the range of investment opportunities so funds can diversify
They will have done very well.
The teachers pension fund is not invested in anything. Payments go straight back to the government, employees and employers. I assume the other schemes are similar.
I don't get it. Labour is f*cking screaming value at 7.
If they win it'll be a huge victory. The start of the Labour Renaissance. But I can't see it. Unless they've got an exceptional candidate which I don't believe they have my guess is the bookies have got it right
In fairness, while I don't know the Labour candidate, I know people whose views I respect who do know her, and she seems universally well-regarded among them.
She is the best of a motley crew by some way.
I think you are wrong there. Can’t see her in the line up
"The arrest was prompted by a baseless suggestion that he was planning to leave the country and take up permanent residence abroad.
"There is absolutely no truth whatsoever in any such suggestion. We have asked the MPS [Metropolitan Police Service] for the evidence relied upon to justify the arrest. Peter Mandelson's overriding priority is to cooperate with the police investigation, as he has done throughout this process, and to clear his name."
Peter Mandelson is the victim in all this... Discuss... Without sniggering..😂😂😂
"The arrest was prompted by a baseless suggestion that he was planning to leave the country and take up permanent residence abroad.
"There is absolutely no truth whatsoever in any such suggestion. We have asked the MPS [Metropolitan Police Service] for the evidence relied upon to justify the arrest. Peter Mandelson's overriding priority is to cooperate with the police investigation, as he has done throughout this process, and to clear his name."
Peter Mandelson is the victim in all this... Discuss... Without sniggering..😂😂😂
It isn't wisely invested now though. A lot of it is in empty High Street shops. If Government can find a way to gently: 1. Encourage pension funds to divest themselves of high street properties so they can be sold or rented at a realistic rate. 2. Reduce the burden of regulation, taxation and energy costs to a point where Britain's economy can once again compete, making it attractive for funds to invest. 3. Gently expand the range of investment opportunities so funds can diversify
They will have done very well.
The teachers pension fund is not invested in anything. Payments go straight back to the government, employees and employers. I assume the other schemes are similar.
MARCO RUBIO will brief House and Senate leaders at the White House today at 3 p.m.
3 pm Eastern Standard Time (EST) in Washington, D.C. is 8 pm Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) in the UK.
Jake Sherman
@JakeSherman A high-level Gang of Eight meeting just hours before the State of the Union.
Gang of Eight, for the uninitiated, is leadership and top lawmakers on intel.
Speaker Mike Johnson House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries Senate Majority Leader John Thune Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.)
Bloomin' heck! Have you seen Dominic Dale's amazing technicolour dreamcoat at the Welsh open snooker?
Coincidentally, I was just looking for some snooker (my daughter is doing art homework and hopes for some sport she doesn't have to concentrate on in the background.) What channel is it on?
BBC2 Wales but it is also on the iPlayer. With Sky we get loads of regional BBC stations clicking left/down of BBC1.
Sienna Rodgers @siennamarla Starmer visit to Gorton and Denton is both a sign of surprising Labour confidence and of the multi-party politics situation the party now finds itself in
PM presence helps send the message to locals that Labour is the anti-Reform vote, not the Greens
“It’s a reverse expectation management game,” a Labour source confirms
Sienna Rodgers @siennamarla · 4h Honestly think there is some genuine confidence there as well.
The raptors that flew out of Suffolk are on the tarmac in Israel...... Buckle up buttercups
Has the incontinent prez sorted out his incontinent aircraft carrier yet? Surely only then will the shit hit the fan.
USS Possum? I think its fine. Unusually weird story to hit the media just when misdirection would be useful. About as convincing as the 'dialogue', ''bomb' bipolar nonsense
It isn't wisely invested now though. A lot of it is in empty High Street shops. If Government can find a way to gently: 1. Encourage pension funds to divest themselves of high street properties so they can be sold or rented at a realistic rate. 2. Reduce the burden of regulation, taxation and energy costs to a point where Britain's economy can once again compete, making it attractive for funds to invest. 3. Gently expand the range of investment opportunities so funds can diversify
They will have done very well.
All a pension fund needs to do is invest to match future liabilities.
If that means de-risking from equities into bonds, as a few have done over the past decade, such as the BoE, then fine.
If you advocate govt policy to change behaviour I’d agree, rather than just let the govt to invest in what it wants.
Scrap Stamp Duty, scrap some of the more restrictive impositions on businesses that list here such as the DEI requirement on board makeup. We need to attract business and wealth creators not treat them as evil.
These funds may be invested badly. I doubt the govt or its people could do better. When I see Peter Kyle bragging about his picking investments I cringe. Let the market decide.
It isn't wisely invested now though. A lot of it is in empty High Street shops. If Government can find a way to gently: 1. Encourage pension funds to divest themselves of high street properties so they can be sold or rented at a realistic rate. 2. Reduce the burden of regulation, taxation and energy costs to a point where Britain's economy can once again compete, making it attractive for funds to invest. 3. Gently expand the range of investment opportunities so funds can diversify
They will have done very well.
The teachers pension fund is not invested in anything. Payments go straight back to the government, employees and employers. I assume the other schemes are similar.
The NHS one isn't invested, contributions go directly to the exchequer. It is a considerable surplus to government funds too.
It isn't wisely invested now though. A lot of it is in empty High Street shops. If Government can find a way to gently: 1. Encourage pension funds to divest themselves of high street properties so they can be sold or rented at a realistic rate. 2. Reduce the burden of regulation, taxation and energy costs to a point where Britain's economy can once again compete, making it attractive for funds to invest. 3. Gently expand the range of investment opportunities so funds can diversify
They will have done very well.
The teachers pension fund is not invested in anything. Payments go straight back to the government, employees and employers. I assume the other schemes are similar.
No. For example the UCU scheme has a large holding in Thames Water.
'One thing the situation in Iran has made crystal clear is that whichever country, regime, group or political ideology, no matter how vile, disgusting or repressive, however many people are massacred or exterminated, as long as they are anti-West, specifically anti-US (and by extension anti-Israel), they will have the unquestioning support of the majority of the liberal left and the entertainment world.
The same “progressive left” who happily live in the west, profit from its relative freedoms, yet turn their activism on and off like a switch, or in some cases, even make a living out of it.
It is disappointing and exhausting.
But grateful to all those who have spoken out. Especially in the comedy community. It takes a lot of guts to do so when everyone around you is looking the other way.'
It would be a belter of a comment, if true. But it really isn't. As a fully-paid up member of the progressive left, absolutely nobody in the circles I move in thinks that the Iranian regime is anything other than vile and abhorrent.
But we also don't think that the USA is best placed to remove and replace that regime.
Agreed: the USA under Trump certainly isn't "best placed."
But the tragedy is that the people of Iran are in no position to "remove and replace" the regime, given the security resources available to the mullahs and their utter sadistic determination to crush dissent. It needs a third-party to help with the removing and replacing and if that's the grotesque orange narcissist then maybe that's the way it's going to have to be. Iran is a country of more than 90m, with an extraordinary culture and rich history. It deserves better than this.
"The arrest was prompted by a baseless suggestion that he was planning to leave the country and take up permanent residence abroad.
"There is absolutely no truth whatsoever in any such suggestion. We have asked the MPS [Metropolitan Police Service] for the evidence relied upon to justify the arrest. Peter Mandelson's overriding priority is to cooperate with the police investigation, as he has done throughout this process, and to clear his name."
Good luck with that. The police could easily argue that.he might do a runner. He is facing some yrs if found gulity. Anonymous tip anyone?
The statutory test is thus (PACE 1984):
(4)But the power of summary arrest conferred by subsection (1), (2) or (3) is exercisable only if the constable has reasonable grounds for believing that for any of the reasons mentioned in subsection (5) it is necessary to arrest the person in question.
(5)The reasons are—.......
.......(f) to prevent any prosecution for the offence from being hindered by the disappearance of the person in question.
'Reasonable grounds for belief' can include all manner of intelligence and rational inference from other facts.
I don't get it. Labour is f*cking screaming value at 7.
SKS wouldn't have visited unless Labour thought it'd be close.
I've revised my bets on that basis.
I thought that, but I am being spooked by talk of the 'total collapse' of Labour and hardly anyone in any vox pops being prepared to back them.
Labour cannot back down and do expectations management here, because every vote counts to them. And as it's a three way marginal, they have to give the impression they are leading the greens.
MARCO RUBIO will brief House and Senate leaders at the White House today at 3 p.m.
3 pm Eastern Standard Time (EST) in Washington, D.C. is 8 pm Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) in the UK.
Tehran is GMT plus 3.5 hours. Looks like a go in about 20 minutes then.
It's a cloudy night. Nobody there is getting even a glimpse of the stealth bombers.
Clashing with State of Nation?
Backdrop for State of the Nation.
What else can he talk about? ICE? Tariffs? Epstein?
When you see the Labour Government in peril because of two historical party Grandees and their friendship with Epstein, one can see how utterly toxic Epstein has become now the truth is out. Yet Epstein's bezzie, with whom it would seem the pair were undertaking despicable abuse of children, is largely unscathed and despite compelling evidence to the contrary legacy media seems to accept Trump's assertion that he has been "totally exonerated".
'One thing the situation in Iran has made crystal clear is that whichever country, regime, group or political ideology, no matter how vile, disgusting or repressive, however many people are massacred or exterminated, as long as they are anti-West, specifically anti-US (and by extension anti-Israel), they will have the unquestioning support of the majority of the liberal left and the entertainment world.
The same “progressive left” who happily live in the west, profit from its relative freedoms, yet turn their activism on and off like a switch, or in some cases, even make a living out of it.
It is disappointing and exhausting.
But grateful to all those who have spoken out. Especially in the comedy community. It takes a lot of guts to do so when everyone around you is looking the other way.'
It would be a belter of a comment, if true. But it really isn't. As a fully-paid up member of the progressive left, absolutely nobody in the circles I move in thinks that the Iranian regime is anything other than vile and abhorrent.
But we also don't think that the USA is best placed to remove and replace that regime.
Agreed: the USA under Trump certainly isn't "best placed."
But the tragedy is that the people of Iran are in no position to "remove and replace" the regime, given the security resources available to the mullahs and their utter sadistic determination to crush dissent. It needs a third-party to help with the removing and replacing and if that's the grotesque orange narcissist then maybe that's the way it's going to have to be. Iran is a country of more than 90m, with an extraordinary culture and rich history. It deserves better than this.
6 weeks or so ago, the USA could have tipped the balance. Now, very unlikely.
"The arrest was prompted by a baseless suggestion that he was planning to leave the country and take up permanent residence abroad.
"There is absolutely no truth whatsoever in any such suggestion. We have asked the MPS [Metropolitan Police Service] for the evidence relied upon to justify the arrest. Peter Mandelson's overriding priority is to cooperate with the police investigation, as he has done throughout this process, and to clear his name."
Peter Mandelson is the victim in all this... Discuss... Without sniggering..😂😂😂
'One thing the situation in Iran has made crystal clear is that whichever country, regime, group or political ideology, no matter how vile, disgusting or repressive, however many people are massacred or exterminated, as long as they are anti-West, specifically anti-US (and by extension anti-Israel), they will have the unquestioning support of the majority of the liberal left and the entertainment world.
The same “progressive left” who happily live in the west, profit from its relative freedoms, yet turn their activism on and off like a switch, or in some cases, even make a living out of it.
It is disappointing and exhausting.
But grateful to all those who have spoken out. Especially in the comedy community. It takes a lot of guts to do so when everyone around you is looking the other way.'
It would be a belter of a comment, if true. But it really isn't. As a fully-paid up member of the progressive left, absolutely nobody in the circles I move in thinks that the Iranian regime is anything other than vile and abhorrent.
But we also don't think that the USA is best placed to remove and replace that regime.
Agreed: the USA under Trump certainly isn't "best placed."
But the tragedy is that the people of Iran are in no position to "remove and replace" the regime, given the security resources available to the mullahs and their utter sadistic determination to crush dissent. It needs a third-party to help with the removing and replacing and if that's the grotesque orange narcissist then maybe that's the way it's going to have to be. Iran is a country of more than 90m, with an extraordinary culture and rich history. It deserves better than this.
6 weeks or so ago, the USA could have tipped the balance. Now, very unlikely.
It isn't wisely invested now though. A lot of it is in empty High Street shops. If Government can find a way to gently: 1. Encourage pension funds to divest themselves of high street properties so they can be sold or rented at a realistic rate. 2. Reduce the burden of regulation, taxation and energy costs to a point where Britain's economy can once again compete, making it attractive for funds to invest. 3. Gently expand the range of investment opportunities so funds can diversify
They will have done very well.
All a pension fund needs to do is invest to match future liabilities.
If that means de-risking from equities into bonds, as a few have done over the past decade, such as the BoE, then fine.
If you advocate govt policy to change behaviour I’d agree, rather than just let the govt to invest in what it wants.
Scrap Stamp Duty, scrap some of the more restrictive impositions on businesses that list here such as the DEI requirement on board makeup. We need to attract business and wealth creators not treat them as evil.
These funds may be invested badly. I doubt the govt or its people could do better. When I see Peter Kyle bragging about his picking investments I cringe. Let the market decide.
"The arrest was prompted by a baseless suggestion that he was planning to leave the country and take up permanent residence abroad.
"There is absolutely no truth whatsoever in any such suggestion. We have asked the MPS [Metropolitan Police Service] for the evidence relied upon to justify the arrest. Peter Mandelson's overriding priority is to cooperate with the police investigation, as he has done throughout this process, and to clear his name."
Good luck with that. The police could easily argue that.he might do a runner. He is facing some yrs if found gulity. Anonymous tip anyone?
The statutory test is thus (PACE 1984):
(4)But the power of summary arrest conferred by subsection (1), (2) or (3) is exercisable only if the constable has reasonable grounds for believing that for any of the reasons mentioned in subsection (5) it is necessary to arrest the person in question.
(5)The reasons are—.......
.......(f) to prevent any prosecution for the offence from being hindered by the disappearance of the person in question.
'Reasonable grounds for belief' can include all manner of intelligence and rational inference from other facts.
And in the case of a rich person, with numerous international connections, facing a charge that could result in life in prison….
I don't get it. Labour is f*cking screaming value at 7.
SKS wouldn't have visited unless Labour thought it'd be close.
I've revised my bets on that basis.
I thought that, but I am being spooked by talk of the 'total collapse' of Labour and hardly anyone in any vox pops being prepared to back them.
Labour cannot back down and do expectations management here, because every vote counts to them. And as it's a three way marginal, they have to give the impression they are leading the greens.
'One thing the situation in Iran has made crystal clear is that whichever country, regime, group or political ideology, no matter how vile, disgusting or repressive, however many people are massacred or exterminated, as long as they are anti-West, specifically anti-US (and by extension anti-Israel), they will have the unquestioning support of the majority of the liberal left and the entertainment world.
The same “progressive left” who happily live in the west, profit from its relative freedoms, yet turn their activism on and off like a switch, or in some cases, even make a living out of it.
It is disappointing and exhausting.
But grateful to all those who have spoken out. Especially in the comedy community. It takes a lot of guts to do so when everyone around you is looking the other way.'
It would be a belter of a comment, if true. But it really isn't. As a fully-paid up member of the progressive left, absolutely nobody in the circles I move in thinks that the Iranian regime is anything other than vile and abhorrent.
But we also don't think that the USA is best placed to remove and replace that regime.
Agreed: the USA under Trump certainly isn't "best placed."
But the tragedy is that the people of Iran are in no position to "remove and replace" the regime, given the security resources available to the mullahs and their utter sadistic determination to crush dissent. It needs a third-party to help with the removing and replacing and if that's the grotesque orange narcissist then maybe that's the way it's going to have to be. Iran is a country of more than 90m, with an extraordinary culture and rich history. It deserves better than this.
6 weeks or so ago, the USA could have tipped the balance. Now, very unlikely.
Yes the TACO moniker definitely applied here. Regime change with limited collateral casualties was on the cards, but the orange c*** bottled it. He now seems content with Obama's nuclear limitation deal. W⚓!
"The arrest was prompted by a baseless suggestion that he was planning to leave the country and take up permanent residence abroad.
"There is absolutely no truth whatsoever in any such suggestion. We have asked the MPS [Metropolitan Police Service] for the evidence relied upon to justify the arrest. Peter Mandelson's overriding priority is to cooperate with the police investigation, as he has done throughout this process, and to clear his name."
Peter Mandelson is the victim in all this... Discuss... Without sniggering..😂😂😂
Okay I’ll give the challenge a go. Firstly - we all agree, as regards with Mandy there’s mouthing at the moment to suggest trafficked sex? Secondly - what we all agree, why we really fucking hate him is based on taking love of money to heights where we are happy to cast the first stone at him, as we would never ascend our own love of money to those heights? Thirdly - none of us know what Mandy is guilty of yet. Correct me where wrong and please tell me, what have we seen that means there is going to be a charge and a certain conviction? None of us believe everything published in tranches of Epstein documents can be regarded as gospel level truth or strong evidence unless proved? So it remains further evidence will be needed to build the case for a charge and conviction? Fourthly - if he was a UK security services asset inside the Epstein Construct, does it give Mandy a free pass, as in “not enough evidence to charge found - case closed?”
But some of you are/have been lawyers so you can see how bad I am at defending my client!
That’s the best I can do defending my client - telling judge in closing remarks how much I fucking hate the greed of my client, making me a hopeless lawyer. I’ll stick to being struggling pastoral farmer. Though it means I can never afford the sickest shoes.
The Telegraph just run with any old shit Farage tells them Like the '6 councils in London' bollocks Now, Birmingham
Reform will certainly gain some seats in the suburbs, possibly even a majority in places like Sutton Coldfield, but they'll be hard pushed to take many inner city seats.
I don't get it. Labour is f*cking screaming value at 7.
SKS wouldn't have visited unless Labour thought it'd be close.
I've revised my bets on that basis.
I thought that, but I am being spooked by talk of the 'total collapse' of Labour and hardly anyone in any vox pops being prepared to back them.
Labour cannot back down and do expectations management here, because every vote counts to them. And as it's a three way marginal, they have to give the impression they are leading the greens.
It's all very perplexing.
Steve Swinford on it.
‘ Keir Starmer has visited Gorton and Denton
The fact he has visited is interesting in and of itself - there is mounting optimism in Labour that they can win the by-election, that undecided voters will peel off and back them over the Greens
During his recent trip to China Starmer repeatedly refused to say whether he would visit
There were concerns that his unpopularity meant he would do more harm than good in a tight contest. He has now decided that he wants to be directly associated with the outcome
He insists that the by-election is a 'straight fight' between Labour and Reform - of course it isn't, it's a straight fight between Reform, Labour and the Greens, but that's the narrative Labour wants to frame for voters’
I don't get it. Labour is f*cking screaming value at 7.
SKS wouldn't have visited unless Labour thought it'd be close.
I've revised my bets on that basis.
I thought that, but I am being spooked by talk of the 'total collapse' of Labour and hardly anyone in any vox pops being prepared to back them.
Labour cannot back down and do expectations management here, because every vote counts to them. And as it's a three way marginal, they have to give the impression they are leading the greens.
It's all very perplexing.
Indeed.
The truth is that there are no secret, inside polls. That canvassing data has limited value.
Into the mix we have an incredibly unpopular government and a very popular local mayor snubbed for the nomination. The same mayor backing the Labour candidate to the hilt. A Reform semi-implosion. A Green Party that might eat a chunk of the vote.
The only honest thing to say is that a Green win, a Labour win and a Reform win are all possible. How likely is each one? I do not know. I do not think anyone else knows, either.
Labour has admitted to misleading Parliament after claiming Sir Keir Starmer did not work with Phil Shiner, the disgraced lawyer.
Louise Sandher-Jones, the veterans’ minister, apologised to MPs on Tuesday for her previous claim that the Prime Minister had never worked with Shiner on cases involving veterans of the Iraq war.
Shiner was accused of pursuing British soldiers with vexatious litigation and later exposed as a fraudster.
As stupid as it sounds given the background to the by election, there could be value in this. A three way split is not beyond probability
Yup.
So...
Labour - supporters disillusioned, getting hammered in the press, midterm byelection Green - surge of support with the young, motivated Reform - supporters trend older, motivated, oblivious to negative press reports
Labour going to struggle with turnout and punishment beating Green might underperform as their supporters fail to vote Reform voters will turnout
So sadly, I'd suggest Reform are value and Labour are talking up their chances to keep their campaigners motivated
Anyone on Labour should be ready to cash-out at any point on Thursday
I just struggle to see how Reform wins this seat:
- 2024 result: combined Tory-Reform vote of 22% versus Labour-Green vote of 64% - 2019 notional results: combined Tory-Brexit vote of 24% versus Labour-Green vote of 70%
Laying Reform seems the best value to me.
The combined Tory-Reform vote is up 9pp in the opinion polls since the general election, which would take them to 31% here. Plus it's a by-election, so swings can be exaggerated.
If Reform can only get to 30% at most then I think a split Labour/Green vote sees Reform finish third. If they can make it up to 35%, then it starts to get much more likely for them.
I think they're right on the cusp, which is what makes it hard to call. That and we have no idea whether the Greens can win a by-election campaign. We know that if it was the Lib Dems in their position they would likely have it sewn up.
If Reform can get to 30%, you need >10% for others and a very evenly split vote. Look at the Omnisis poll: Reform on 29%, and the Lab/Grn vote split, but Green still win 33% to 29% (Reform) to 26% (Lab).
If the Lab/Grn vote do a 2:1 split, Reform have to get near 40% to win. I suspect the great British electorate will sort themselves out and manage more than a 2:1 split.
"The arrest was prompted by a baseless suggestion that he was planning to leave the country and take up permanent residence abroad.
"There is absolutely no truth whatsoever in any such suggestion. We have asked the MPS [Metropolitan Police Service] for the evidence relied upon to justify the arrest. Peter Mandelson's overriding priority is to cooperate with the police investigation, as he has done throughout this process, and to clear his name."
Good luck with that. The police could easily argue that.he might do a runner. He is facing some yrs if found gulity. Anonymous tip anyone?
The statutory test is thus (PACE 1984):
(4)But the power of summary arrest conferred by subsection (1), (2) or (3) is exercisable only if the constable has reasonable grounds for believing that for any of the reasons mentioned in subsection (5) it is necessary to arrest the person in question.
(5)The reasons are—.......
.......(f) to prevent any prosecution for the offence from being hindered by the disappearance of the person in question.
'Reasonable grounds for belief' can include all manner of intelligence and rational inference from other facts.
And in the case of a rich person, with numerous international connections, facing a charge that could result in life in prison….
A further interesting question, so far as I know not addressed yet, is: What were the grounds for arresting A M-W? They have to be given to the suspect and have to comply with the options in PACE 1984.
The Telegraph just run with any old shit Farage tells them Like the '6 councils in London' bollocks Now, Birmingham
Reform will certainly gain some seats in the suburbs, possibly even a majority in places like Sutton Coldfield, but they'll be hard pushed to take many inner city seats.
I think the Tories will hold up well enough in Sutton to stop Reform storming it there Reform wont come up blank but they wont be running Birmingham either
The pushing of these LE stories screams worried about not doing well enough to me. Not long to find out anyway
I don't get it. Labour is f*cking screaming value at 7.
If they win it'll be a huge victory. The start of the Labour Renaissance. But I can't see it. Unless they've got an exceptional candidate which I don't believe they have my guess is the bookies have got it right
You know how England are always much shorter odds than they should be at World Cups? Partly fans backing them because they overestimate their brilliance, but also as a gesture of support?
I wonder if there's something like that here, boosting the implied probability for Reform and Green. As far as we know, it's a three horse tossup, in which case one of the horses shouldn't be 7-1. What the odds should be is another matter.
(And to be clear, a narrow win in a three-way scramble would objectively be a blooming awful result for Labour. Almost as bad as a narrow loss etc.)
Except a Narrow Labour win, would be... a Labour win. One that would be coming a bare few days after it seemed that the entire UK press corps were utterly convinced that Starmer was obviously out and that Labour would anyway collapse if he did not go immediately.
Those of us who less convinced about this narrative were told we were fools. Now it is clear that even if Labour is defeated on Thursday, they are certainly not falling apart, and I think a lot of rethinking needs to happen about the general level of political commentary. Too many people got lost in the story and lost touch with the reality- neither Reform nor the Greens have a good ground war, and Labour despite having about as bad a background to the by-election they could have had, are still in touch and indeed may even win.
The fact is that Reality doesn't give a toss about the opinions of some jumped up PPE grads in the mediascape. The political media complex thinks that nothing is true, it is simply how you sell it that matters- that was and is horseshit. So, while too many in the news media simply sign up for whichever propaganda camp suits them, the old school tradition of calling things for what they are, rather than selling opinion as truth still has much to recommend it.
Its called reporting the facts. One can only hope that the seizure of different media channels by various oligarchs- Musk, Marshall, Murdoch et al will end up with their output being discounted as the biased propaganda that it is.
I don't get it. Labour is f*cking screaming value at 7.
SKS wouldn't have visited unless Labour thought it'd be close.
I've revised my bets on that basis.
I thought that, but I am being spooked by talk of the 'total collapse' of Labour and hardly anyone in any vox pops being prepared to back them.
Labour cannot back down and do expectations management here, because every vote counts to them. And as it's a three way marginal, they have to give the impression they are leading the greens.
It's all very perplexing.
Indeed.
The truth is that there are no secret, inside polls. That canvassing data has limited value.
Into the mix we have an incredibly unpopular government and a very popular local mayor snubbed for the nomination. The same mayor backing the Labour candidate to the hilt. A Reform semi-implosion. A Green Party that might eat a chunk of the vote.
The only honest thing to say is that a Green win, a Labour win and a Reform win are all possible. How likely is each one? I do not know. I do not think anyone else knows, either.
I think Greens are too short and both Ref and Lab too long.
Lab has a core vote still despite Gaza shedding their Muslim vote. This also has been a very safe Labour seat historically.
I think Green 1/1; Ref 2/1 and Lab 4/1 would be about right.
I see the usual ignorance on "public sector pensions" is getting an airing tonight from some of the usual suspects.
There are different kinds of pensions across "the public sector" - there's the Civil Service pension, Local Government pensions, Teachers' Pensions, the Police pension and the pension arrangements for other blue light workers as well as for the armed forces and NHS staff.
All are different and all are administered differently but as usual it's easier to generalise to try to make a point. The Local Government Pension is a Defined Contribution Scheme - I'm not sure the ones for the blue light workers and armed forces are but I could be wrong. You could argue Local Government workers should contribute more and indeed senior officers do and that comes (again, arguably) in lieu of having the money as salary.
We also have nonsense like that from Omid Djalili - there are very few "on the left" (whatever that means) who are publicly supportive of the theocracy in Tehran and a great number who would like the Mullahs removed but whatever follows has to be seen to be the will of the Iranian people and not the will of the White House or American business interests.
As we saw in Iraq, removing a tyrant is fairly easy if you have overwhelming force but what follows is the difficult bit. It's not just the politics but the infrastructure - ensuring the Iranian people have food, water, power and security would seem fairly important - that's not nation building in and of itself but as important as the political and governmental frameworks.
The Telegraph just run with any old shit Farage tells them Like the '6 councils in London' bollocks Now, Birmingham
I’m sure Farage doesn’t have them on speed dial just as I’m sure Reform will be lucky to pick up more than a couple of seats in Brum.
Mussolini made the trains run on time - perhaps Reform can collect the bins.
I’m sure if they ever ran Birmingham we wouldn’t be short of updates here, mainly from people with no link to the city, reflecting on their every perceived failure.
When I was there last April for the last Blues home game of last season the two things notable about the area by the Blues ground was the number of Palestine flags and the mass of litter and also fly tipped stuff like cupboards, mattresses and other stuff binmen wouldn’t normally take.
I expect the strike ends when the council gets rid of the current binmen and hires new.
A senior cabinet minister said: “The Greens are whipping up hatred and deliberately raising the salience of Gaza. They’re hammering us. They’re a totally different party to the one we thought they were. They’re just like Respect — it’s like fighting a by-election against George Galloway.”
I think the Greens have the most at stake in this by-election. It's expected they'll win it and if they do they've arrived. The Polanski polling surge isn't froth, it's real people prepared to vote for them in size. They can target a big seat total at the GE. But if they fall short, and esp if they aren't close, it could all fade away like chalk in the rain.
Yeah, they've hyped it up, so it will be viewed as a failure if they don't win. The candidate is fairly unimpressive and can barely string a sentence together, and Zack P bottled the chance to stand - in a serious political party this would leave people asking questions, but it is the Greens, so nothing will happen.
Does sound like Lab have poured all the resources into the area, and they've been hitting up Denton particularly hard to try and pull back the voters. The King of The North has been out and about several times, so they must feel like they'll hold on.
The most amusing result would be:
1. Lab with a tiny majority 2. RefUK 3. Grn
I think Polanski possibly benefits from being outside parliament at this point. You lose a chunk of 'outsider' cred as soon as your backside nestles into green leather in SW1. Could this be why he passed maybe?
Could be - I also think he took some initial soundings that said it wasn't winnable, GG was making noises about standing and that would have peeled off a significant proportion of the nut job vote.
In the end, the indefatigable George passed, we in Manchester are grateful for these small mercies.
I don't get it. Labour is f*cking screaming value at 7.
If they win it'll be a huge victory. The start of the Labour Renaissance. But I can't see it. Unless they've got an exceptional candidate which I don't believe they have my guess is the bookies have got it right
In fairness, while I don't know the Labour candidate, I know people whose views I respect who do know her, and she seems universally well-regarded among them.
She is the best of a motley crew by some way.
I think you are wrong there. Can’t see her in the line up
Have you watched “The Dirt” film about the Crűe? It’s very entertaining and one of the more enjoyable films about bands or musicians.
"The arrest was prompted by a baseless suggestion that he was planning to leave the country and take up permanent residence abroad.
"There is absolutely no truth whatsoever in any such suggestion. We have asked the MPS [Metropolitan Police Service] for the evidence relied upon to justify the arrest. Peter Mandelson's overriding priority is to cooperate with the police investigation, as he has done throughout this process, and to clear his name."
Peter Mandelson is the victim in all this... Discuss... Without sniggering..😂😂😂
Labour has admitted to misleading Parliament after claiming Sir Keir Starmer did not work with Phil Shiner, the disgraced lawyer.
Louise Sandher-Jones, the veterans’ minister, apologised to MPs on Tuesday for her previous claim that the Prime Minister had never worked with Shiner on cases involving veterans of the Iraq war.
Shiner was accused of pursuing British soldiers with vexatious litigation and later exposed as a fraudster.
I don't get it. Labour is f*cking screaming value at 7.
SKS wouldn't have visited unless Labour thought it'd be close.
I've revised my bets on that basis.
I thought that, but I am being spooked by talk of the 'total collapse' of Labour and hardly anyone in any vox pops being prepared to back them.
Labour cannot back down and do expectations management here, because every vote counts to them. And as it's a three way marginal, they have to give the impression they are leading the greens.
It's all very perplexing.
Indeed.
The truth is that there are no secret, inside polls. That canvassing data has limited value.
Into the mix we have an incredibly unpopular government and a very popular local mayor snubbed for the nomination. The same mayor backing the Labour candidate to the hilt. A Reform semi-implosion. A Green Party that might eat a chunk of the vote.
The only honest thing to say is that a Green win, a Labour win and a Reform win are all possible. How likely is each one? I do not know. I do not think anyone else knows, either.
I think Greens are too short and both Ref and Lab too long.
Lab has a core vote still despite Gaza shedding their Muslim vote. This also has been a very safe Labour seat historically.
I think Green 1/1; Ref 2/1 and Lab 4/1 would be about right.
I agree.
Lab is screaming value and I will go down with the ship on this one.
Burnham is there every day by all accounts. Starmer has risked a visit.
They know this is a three way fight and nothing is decided.
I think the Greens have the most at stake in this by-election. It's expected they'll win it and if they do they've arrived. The Polanski polling surge isn't froth, it's real people prepared to vote for them in size. They can target a big seat total at the GE. But if they fall short, and esp if they aren't close, it could all fade away like chalk in the rain.
Yeah, they've hyped it up, so it will be viewed as a failure if they don't win. The candidate is fairly unimpressive and can barely string a sentence together, and Zack P bottled the chance to stand - in a serious political party this would leave people asking questions, but it is the Greens, so nothing will happen.
Does sound like Lab have poured all the resources into the area, and they've been hitting up Denton particularly hard to try and pull back the voters. The King of The North has been out and about several times, so they must feel like they'll hold on.
The most amusing result would be:
1. Lab with a tiny majority 2. RefUK 3. Grn
I think Polanski possibly benefits from being outside parliament at this point. You lose a chunk of 'outsider' cred as soon as your backside nestles into green leather in SW1. Could this be why he passed maybe?
Could be - I also think he took some initial soundings that said it wasn't winnable, GG was making noises about standing and that would have peeled off a significant proportion of the nut job vote.
In the end, the indefatigable George passed, we in Manchester are grateful for these small mercies.
I think it simpler than that. The Greens are a localist decentralised party, so a locally chosen candidate was always on the cards.
The Telegraph just run with any old shit Farage tells them Like the '6 councils in London' bollocks Now, Birmingham
I’m sure Farage doesn’t have them on speed dial just as I’m sure Reform will be lucky to pick up more than a couple of seats in Brum.
Are you sure? Birmingham is very "flaggy". Labour are dead in the water and the Tories have already sunk without trace.
The only flags I’ve seen are Palestine ones by the Blues Ground !
I’d not expect Sutton C to go but I’d defer to Feersum Enjineeya on that if he has a different view as he’s local and he has canvassed there.
Maybe Bartley Green, Castle Bromwich, around Northfield. What parts have you been too that are flaggy ?
I may well be wrong but I just think City demographics work against them in Brum in a way they don’t in places like Sandwell, Tipton, Dudley and Walsall.
I see the usual ignorance on "public sector pensions" is getting an airing tonight from some of the usual suspects.
There are different kinds of pensions across "the public sector" - there's the Civil Service pension, Local Government pensions, Teachers' Pensions, the Police pension and the pension arrangements for other blue light workers as well as for the armed forces and NHS staff.
All are different and all are administered differently but as usual it's easier to generalise to try to make a point. The Local Government Pension is a Defined Contribution Scheme - I'm not sure the ones for the blue light workers and armed forces are but I could be wrong. You could argue Local Government workers should contribute more and indeed senior officers do and that comes (again, arguably) in lieu of having the money as salary.
We also have nonsense like that from Omid Djalili - there are very few "on the left" (whatever that means) who are publicly supportive of the theocracy in Tehran and a great number who would like the Mullahs removed but whatever follows has to be seen to be the will of the Iranian people and not the will of the White House or American business interests.
As we saw in Iraq, removing a tyrant is fairly easy if you have overwhelming force but what follows is the difficult bit. It's not just the politics but the infrastructure - ensuring the Iranian people have food, water, power and security would seem fairly important - that's not nation building in and of itself but as important as the political and governmental frameworks.
Great. Lets remove the tyrant then, then get out and let the Iranians decide what happens next.
I see the usual ignorance on "public sector pensions" is getting an airing tonight from some of the usual suspects.
There are different kinds of pensions across "the public sector" - there's the Civil Service pension, Local Government pensions, Teachers' Pensions, the Police pension and the pension arrangements for other blue light workers as well as for the armed forces and NHS staff.
All are different and all are administered differently but as usual it's easier to generalise to try to make a point. The Local Government Pension is a Defined Contribution Scheme - I'm not sure the ones for the blue light workers and armed forces are but I could be wrong. You could argue Local Government workers should contribute more and indeed senior officers do and that comes (again, arguably) in lieu of having the money as salary.
We also have nonsense like that from Omid Djalili - there are very few "on the left" (whatever that means) who are publicly supportive of the theocracy in Tehran and a great number who would like the Mullahs removed but whatever follows has to be seen to be the will of the Iranian people and not the will of the White House or American business interests.
As we saw in Iraq, removing a tyrant is fairly easy if you have overwhelming force but what follows is the difficult bit. It's not just the politics but the infrastructure - ensuring the Iranian people have food, water, power and security would seem fairly important - that's not nation building in and of itself but as important as the political and governmental frameworks.
Great. Lets remove the tyrant then, then get out and let the Iranians decide what happens next.
Why would the Iranians decide who replaces Nethanyahu ?
I see the usual ignorance on "public sector pensions" is getting an airing tonight from some of the usual suspects.
There are different kinds of pensions across "the public sector" - there's the Civil Service pension, Local Government pensions, Teachers' Pensions, the Police pension and the pension arrangements for other blue light workers as well as for the armed forces and NHS staff.
All are different and all are administered differently but as usual it's easier to generalise to try to make a point. The Local Government Pension is a Defined Contribution Scheme - I'm not sure the ones for the blue light workers and armed forces are but I could be wrong. You could argue Local Government workers should contribute more and indeed senior officers do and that comes (again, arguably) in lieu of having the money as salary.
We also have nonsense like that from Omid Djalili - there are very few "on the left" (whatever that means) who are publicly supportive of the theocracy in Tehran and a great number who would like the Mullahs removed but whatever follows has to be seen to be the will of the Iranian people and not the will of the White House or American business interests.
As we saw in Iraq, removing a tyrant is fairly easy if you have overwhelming force but what follows is the difficult bit. It's not just the politics but the infrastructure - ensuring the Iranian people have food, water, power and security would seem fairly important - that's not nation building in and of itself but as important as the political and governmental frameworks.
Great. Lets remove the tyrant then, then get out and let the Iranians decide what happens next.
When was the last time that bombing toppled a tyrant without a land invasion?
A senior cabinet minister said: “The Greens are whipping up hatred and deliberately raising the salience of Gaza. They’re hammering us. They’re a totally different party to the one we thought they were. They’re just like Respect — it’s like fighting a by-election against George Galloway.”
That's from the same Labour party whose official line is that the by election is between Labour and Reform.
As to Gaza, how relevant this is to a by election I do not know, but it is ludicrous to suggest that the only rational policy towards the Israel/Palestine/Gaza issues are those the government has pursued or that a party is not entitled to propound its policy. A huge swathe of opinion in the UK has been affected and changed by the October pogrom and the subsequent Gaza catastrophe.
Though Reform acted quickly to suspend this campaign manager, not good for them he was found having posted racist and anti Semitic slurs. That will especially hit its efforts to win over Jewish voters
I see the usual ignorance on "public sector pensions" is getting an airing tonight from some of the usual suspects.
There are different kinds of pensions across "the public sector" - there's the Civil Service pension, Local Government pensions, Teachers' Pensions, the Police pension and the pension arrangements for other blue light workers as well as for the armed forces and NHS staff.
All are different and all are administered differently but as usual it's easier to generalise to try to make a point. The Local Government Pension is a Defined Contribution Scheme - I'm not sure the ones for the blue light workers and armed forces are but I could be wrong. You could argue Local Government workers should contribute more and indeed senior officers do and that comes (again, arguably) in lieu of having the money as salary.
We also have nonsense like that from Omid Djalili - there are very few "on the left" (whatever that means) who are publicly supportive of the theocracy in Tehran and a great number who would like the Mullahs removed but whatever follows has to be seen to be the will of the Iranian people and not the will of the White House or American business interests.
As we saw in Iraq, removing a tyrant is fairly easy if you have overwhelming force but what follows is the difficult bit. It's not just the politics but the infrastructure - ensuring the Iranian people have food, water, power and security would seem fairly important - that's not nation building in and of itself but as important as the political and governmental frameworks.
The public sector pension discussion is because Reform want to get their hands on the money to invest it. I’d have thought that is worth talking about.
Though Reform acted quickly to suspend this campaign manager, not good for them he was found having posted racist and anti Semitic slurs. That will especially hit its efforts to win over Jewish voters
But it may help with the pro Gaza voters the Greens are pandering to in G&D ?
I don't get it. Labour is f*cking screaming value at 7.
SKS wouldn't have visited unless Labour thought it'd be close.
I've revised my bets on that basis.
I thought that, but I am being spooked by talk of the 'total collapse' of Labour and hardly anyone in any vox pops being prepared to back them.
Labour cannot back down and do expectations management here, because every vote counts to them. And as it's a three way marginal, they have to give the impression they are leading the greens.
It's all very perplexing.
Steve Swinford on it.
‘ Keir Starmer has visited Gorton and Denton
The fact he has visited is interesting in and of itself - there is mounting optimism in Labour that they can win the by-election, that undecided voters will peel off and back them over the Greens
During his recent trip to China Starmer repeatedly refused to say whether he would visit
There were concerns that his unpopularity meant he would do more harm than good in a tight contest. He has now decided that he wants to be directly associated with the outcome
He insists that the by-election is a 'straight fight' between Labour and Reform - of course it isn't, it's a straight fight between Reform, Labour and the Greens, but that's the narrative Labour wants to frame for voters’
What I have learnt on PB from calling so many by elections wrong, I ignored every media organ sending one of their top or serious journalists there to vox pop, assess the mood.
Every media organ from right to left has done this in recent weeks and they all speak as one. Reform and green leaflets in windows, and placards in gardens - nothing in support of Labour. Betting markets can be manipulated I agree, but underpinning market prices I’m sure is attention to this sort of oral evidence I’m referring to. So market is right, green ahead, Labour third.
Labour third would crystallise where I think there vote actually is right now. “IF” economy improves, and other measures like channel crossings, immigration waves, NHS measures too in next couple of years, it will be interesting to see if it helps Labour to defend Parliamentary majorities as big as this one.
But having lost safe seat by shipping their voters in two different directions is going to make a media narrative horror show for Labour.
I see the usual ignorance on "public sector pensions" is getting an airing tonight from some of the usual suspects.
There are different kinds of pensions across "the public sector" - there's the Civil Service pension, Local Government pensions, Teachers' Pensions, the Police pension and the pension arrangements for other blue light workers as well as for the armed forces and NHS staff.
All are different and all are administered differently but as usual it's easier to generalise to try to make a point. The Local Government Pension is a Defined Contribution Scheme - I'm not sure the ones for the blue light workers and armed forces are but I could be wrong. You could argue Local Government workers should contribute more and indeed senior officers do and that comes (again, arguably) in lieu of having the money as salary.
We also have nonsense like that from Omid Djalili - there are very few "on the left" (whatever that means) who are publicly supportive of the theocracy in Tehran and a great number who would like the Mullahs removed but whatever follows has to be seen to be the will of the Iranian people and not the will of the White House or American business interests.
As we saw in Iraq, removing a tyrant is fairly easy if you have overwhelming force but what follows is the difficult bit. It's not just the politics but the infrastructure - ensuring the Iranian people have food, water, power and security would seem fairly important - that's not nation building in and of itself but as important as the political and governmental frameworks.
Great. Lets remove the tyrant then, then get out and let the Iranians decide what happens next.
When was the last time that bombing toppled a tyrant without a land invasion?
The Telegraph just run with any old shit Farage tells them Like the '6 councils in London' bollocks Now, Birmingham
I’m sure Farage doesn’t have them on speed dial just as I’m sure Reform will be lucky to pick up more than a couple of seats in Brum.
Are you sure? Birmingham is very "flaggy". Labour are dead in the water and the Tories have already sunk without trace.
The only flags I’ve seen are Palestine ones by the Blues Ground !
I’d not expect Sutton C to go but I’d defer to Feersum Enjineeya on that if he has a different view as he’s local and he has canvassed there.
Maybe Bartley Green, Castle Bromwich, around Northfield. What parts have you been too that are flaggy ?
I may well be wrong but I just think City demographics work against them in Brum in a way they don’t in places like Sandwell, Tipton, Dudley and Walsall.
South West Brum is all Union and England flags. South East Palestine.
I see the usual ignorance on "public sector pensions" is getting an airing tonight from some of the usual suspects.
There are different kinds of pensions across "the public sector" - there's the Civil Service pension, Local Government pensions, Teachers' Pensions, the Police pension and the pension arrangements for other blue light workers as well as for the armed forces and NHS staff.
All are different and all are administered differently but as usual it's easier to generalise to try to make a point. The Local Government Pension is a Defined Contribution Scheme - I'm not sure the ones for the blue light workers and armed forces are but I could be wrong. You could argue Local Government workers should contribute more and indeed senior officers do and that comes (again, arguably) in lieu of having the money as salary.
We also have nonsense like that from Omid Djalili - there are very few "on the left" (whatever that means) who are publicly supportive of the theocracy in Tehran and a great number who would like the Mullahs removed but whatever follows has to be seen to be the will of the Iranian people and not the will of the White House or American business interests.
As we saw in Iraq, removing a tyrant is fairly easy if you have overwhelming force but what follows is the difficult bit. It's not just the politics but the infrastructure - ensuring the Iranian people have food, water, power and security would seem fairly important - that's not nation building in and of itself but as important as the political and governmental frameworks.
Great. Lets remove the tyrant then, then get out and let the Iranians decide what happens next.
When was the last time that bombing toppled a tyrant without a land invasion?
I see the usual ignorance on "public sector pensions" is getting an airing tonight from some of the usual suspects.
There are different kinds of pensions across "the public sector" - there's the Civil Service pension, Local Government pensions, Teachers' Pensions, the Police pension and the pension arrangements for other blue light workers as well as for the armed forces and NHS staff.
All are different and all are administered differently but as usual it's easier to generalise to try to make a point. The Local Government Pension is a Defined Contribution Scheme - I'm not sure the ones for the blue light workers and armed forces are but I could be wrong. You could argue Local Government workers should contribute more and indeed senior officers do and that comes (again, arguably) in lieu of having the money as salary.
We also have nonsense like that from Omid Djalili - there are very few "on the left" (whatever that means) who are publicly supportive of the theocracy in Tehran and a great number who would like the Mullahs removed but whatever follows has to be seen to be the will of the Iranian people and not the will of the White House or American business interests.
As we saw in Iraq, removing a tyrant is fairly easy if you have overwhelming force but what follows is the difficult bit. It's not just the politics but the infrastructure - ensuring the Iranian people have food, water, power and security would seem fairly important - that's not nation building in and of itself but as important as the political and governmental frameworks.
The public sector pension discussion is because Reform want to get their hands on the money to invest it. I’d have thought that is worth talking about.
The money has been invested, mostly.
The pension scheme of -say- Essex County Council will have been invested with asset managers.
If you want to rip up the contract that Essex County Council has with its employees and ex-employees, and then take any excess from the pension fund and give it to Central Government (or even give it to Essex County Council itself), then you will need primary legislation.
I see the usual ignorance on "public sector pensions" is getting an airing tonight from some of the usual suspects.
There are different kinds of pensions across "the public sector" - there's the Civil Service pension, Local Government pensions, Teachers' Pensions, the Police pension and the pension arrangements for other blue light workers as well as for the armed forces and NHS staff.
All are different and all are administered differently but as usual it's easier to generalise to try to make a point. The Local Government Pension is a Defined Contribution Scheme - I'm not sure the ones for the blue light workers and armed forces are but I could be wrong. You could argue Local Government workers should contribute more and indeed senior officers do and that comes (again, arguably) in lieu of having the money as salary.
We also have nonsense like that from Omid Djalili - there are very few "on the left" (whatever that means) who are publicly supportive of the theocracy in Tehran and a great number who would like the Mullahs removed but whatever follows has to be seen to be the will of the Iranian people and not the will of the White House or American business interests.
As we saw in Iraq, removing a tyrant is fairly easy if you have overwhelming force but what follows is the difficult bit. It's not just the politics but the infrastructure - ensuring the Iranian people have food, water, power and security would seem fairly important - that's not nation building in and of itself but as important as the political and governmental frameworks.
Great. Lets remove the tyrant then, then get out and let the Iranians decide what happens next.
When was the last time that bombing toppled a tyrant without a land invasion?
I see the usual ignorance on "public sector pensions" is getting an airing tonight from some of the usual suspects.
There are different kinds of pensions across "the public sector" - there's the Civil Service pension, Local Government pensions, Teachers' Pensions, the Police pension and the pension arrangements for other blue light workers as well as for the armed forces and NHS staff.
All are different and all are administered differently but as usual it's easier to generalise to try to make a point. The Local Government Pension is a Defined Contribution Scheme - I'm not sure the ones for the blue light workers and armed forces are but I could be wrong. You could argue Local Government workers should contribute more and indeed senior officers do and that comes (again, arguably) in lieu of having the money as salary.
We also have nonsense like that from Omid Djalili - there are very few "on the left" (whatever that means) who are publicly supportive of the theocracy in Tehran and a great number who would like the Mullahs removed but whatever follows has to be seen to be the will of the Iranian people and not the will of the White House or American business interests.
As we saw in Iraq, removing a tyrant is fairly easy if you have overwhelming force but what follows is the difficult bit. It's not just the politics but the infrastructure - ensuring the Iranian people have food, water, power and security would seem fairly important - that's not nation building in and of itself but as important as the political and governmental frameworks.
Great. Lets remove the tyrant then, then get out and let the Iranians decide what happens next.
You and I both know it's not as simple as that.
We can remove the tyranny (which isn't just Khamanei by any stretch) but essentially the country would be ungoverned until some form of new arrangement is put in place (whether republic, democracy or restored monarchy I agree should be left to the Iranian people).
No Government means no law and order short of what the invading forces could or would be willing to supply. It means ensuring the administration of law and the distribution of food (arguably the two main requirements for any society to function) are maintained across the country.
It also means it shouldn't be about the settling of scores or the creation of new ones as individual local power brokers take advantage of the vacuum.
That's the bit that a simplistic view always misses - removing the "bad guys" (however noble) creates a vacuum which the "good guys" can't always fill at once so the American would be looking at a prolonged involvement in Iran untila new order is created and settled.
Fascinating. Worth 2 minutes. An early indication that Mishcon de Reya are going to earn their minimum wage and that no point, procedural or otherwise, will be left unargued.
The big people world will not be short of those who would love both current investigations never to get near a court or a trial - places where anything can be used as a defence, and anyone called, and the laws of libel don't apply, where privilege is absolute.
The Telegraph just run with any old shit Farage tells them Like the '6 councils in London' bollocks Now, Birmingham
I’m sure Farage doesn’t have them on speed dial just as I’m sure Reform will be lucky to pick up more than a couple of seats in Brum.
Are you sure? Birmingham is very "flaggy". Labour are dead in the water and the Tories have already sunk without trace.
The only flags I’ve seen are Palestine ones by the Blues Ground !
I’d not expect Sutton C to go but I’d defer to Feersum Enjineeya on that if he has a different view as he’s local and he has canvassed there.
Maybe Bartley Green, Castle Bromwich, around Northfield. What parts have you been too that are flaggy ?
I may well be wrong but I just think City demographics work against them in Brum in a way they don’t in places like Sandwell, Tipton, Dudley and Walsall.
South West Brum is all Union and England flags. South East Palestine.
It's like being in Belfast.
This summer it will be paint the kerbstones.
Defo to flags in SW Brum.
I have family there and every street has flags.
Weoley Castle is ground zero of the whole thing nationwide.
Whether this matters for the local elections is another matter.
The Telegraph just run with any old shit Farage tells them Like the '6 councils in London' bollocks Now, Birmingham
I’m sure Farage doesn’t have them on speed dial just as I’m sure Reform will be lucky to pick up more than a couple of seats in Brum.
Are you sure? Birmingham is very "flaggy". Labour are dead in the water and the Tories have already sunk without trace.
The only flags I’ve seen are Palestine ones by the Blues Ground !
I’d not expect Sutton C to go but I’d defer to Feersum Enjineeya on that if he has a different view as he’s local and he has canvassed there.
Maybe Bartley Green, Castle Bromwich, around Northfield. What parts have you been too that are flaggy ?
I may well be wrong but I just think City demographics work against them in Brum in a way they don’t in places like Sandwell, Tipton, Dudley and Walsall.
Kings Heath, Kings Norton, Moseley. Northfield, Cotteridge, West Heath. Although you could argue that the White Supremacists in these areas are more than offset by minorities.
I see the usual ignorance on "public sector pensions" is getting an airing tonight from some of the usual suspects.
There are different kinds of pensions across "the public sector" - there's the Civil Service pension, Local Government pensions, Teachers' Pensions, the Police pension and the pension arrangements for other blue light workers as well as for the armed forces and NHS staff.
All are different and all are administered differently but as usual it's easier to generalise to try to make a point. The Local Government Pension is a Defined Contribution Scheme - I'm not sure the ones for the blue light workers and armed forces are but I could be wrong. You could argue Local Government workers should contribute more and indeed senior officers do and that comes (again, arguably) in lieu of having the money as salary.
We also have nonsense like that from Omid Djalili - there are very few "on the left" (whatever that means) who are publicly supportive of the theocracy in Tehran and a great number who would like the Mullahs removed but whatever follows has to be seen to be the will of the Iranian people and not the will of the White House or American business interests.
As we saw in Iraq, removing a tyrant is fairly easy if you have overwhelming force but what follows is the difficult bit. It's not just the politics but the infrastructure - ensuring the Iranian people have food, water, power and security would seem fairly important - that's not nation building in and of itself but as important as the political and governmental frameworks.
The public sector pension discussion is because Reform want to get their hands on the money to invest it. I’d have thought that is worth talking about.
There is a line which Tice has used which claims Reform could make better or more lucrative investment decisions than under the current arrangements. I find this curious as the Conservative Party, which has its share of people with financial acumen (I have been told) has never sought to do anything similar and has allowed the Trustees of the LPGS and others to make their own investment decisions to the benefit of the stakeholders.
I presume Tice thinks they can do 10% better and they can take that additional profit to the Treasury for the greater good. However, if Reform aren't the investment geniuses they would have us believe, would they make up the shortfall from public funds or expect the public sector pensioners to take the hit?
I see the usual ignorance on "public sector pensions" is getting an airing tonight from some of the usual suspects.
There are different kinds of pensions across "the public sector" - there's the Civil Service pension, Local Government pensions, Teachers' Pensions, the Police pension and the pension arrangements for other blue light workers as well as for the armed forces and NHS staff.
All are different and all are administered differently but as usual it's easier to generalise to try to make a point. The Local Government Pension is a Defined Contribution Scheme - I'm not sure the ones for the blue light workers and armed forces are but I could be wrong. You could argue Local Government workers should contribute more and indeed senior officers do and that comes (again, arguably) in lieu of having the money as salary.
We also have nonsense like that from Omid Djalili - there are very few "on the left" (whatever that means) who are publicly supportive of the theocracy in Tehran and a great number who would like the Mullahs removed but whatever follows has to be seen to be the will of the Iranian people and not the will of the White House or American business interests.
As we saw in Iraq, removing a tyrant is fairly easy if you have overwhelming force but what follows is the difficult bit. It's not just the politics but the infrastructure - ensuring the Iranian people have food, water, power and security would seem fairly important - that's not nation building in and of itself but as important as the political and governmental frameworks.
Great. Lets remove the tyrant then, then get out and let the Iranians decide what happens next.
Why would the Iranians decide who replaces Nethanyahu ?
Tbf that is a succinct summary of the geopolitical strategy of the Ayatollahs.
I don't get it. Labour is f*cking screaming value at 7.
SKS wouldn't have visited unless Labour thought it'd be close.
I've revised my bets on that basis.
I thought that, but I am being spooked by talk of the 'total collapse' of Labour and hardly anyone in any vox pops being prepared to back them.
Labour cannot back down and do expectations management here, because every vote counts to them. And as it's a three way marginal, they have to give the impression they are leading the greens.
It's all very perplexing.
Indeed.
The truth is that there are no secret, inside polls. That canvassing data has limited value.
Into the mix we have an incredibly unpopular government and a very popular local mayor snubbed for the nomination. The same mayor backing the Labour candidate to the hilt. A Reform semi-implosion. A Green Party that might eat a chunk of the vote.
The only honest thing to say is that a Green win, a Labour win and a Reform win are all possible. How likely is each one? I do not know. I do not think anyone else knows, either.
I think Greens are too short and both Ref and Lab too long.
Lab has a core vote still despite Gaza shedding their Muslim vote. This also has been a very safe Labour seat historically.
I think Green 1/1; Ref 2/1 and Lab 4/1 would be about right.
I agree.
Lab is screaming value and I will go down with the ship on this one.
Burnham is there every day by all accounts. Starmer has risked a visit.
They know this is a three way fight and nothing is decided.
Comments
I've revised my bets on that basis.
Must be sad times when the HQ of Tankiedom has run so low of tanks…
Can you sum it up in a word ?
(I just knew you’d get the reference 😀)
It's a cloudy night. Nobody there is getting even a glimpse of the stealth bombers.
Or launched by it?
@JakeSherman
A high-level Gang of Eight meeting just hours before the State of the Union.
Gang of Eight, for the uninitiated, is leadership and top lawmakers on intel.
Speaker Mike Johnson
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries
Senate Majority Leader John Thune
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer
Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.)
Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.)
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.)
Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.)
https://x.com/JakeSherman/status/2026360382718185773
Man, no JV!
What else can he talk about? ICE? Tariffs? Epstein?
Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
Starmer visit to Gorton and Denton is both a sign of surprising Labour confidence and of the multi-party politics situation the party now finds itself in
PM presence helps send the message to locals that Labour is the anti-Reform vote, not the Greens
“It’s a reverse expectation management game,” a Labour source confirms
Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
·
4h
Honestly think there is some genuine confidence there as well.
https://x.com/siennamarla/status/2026307146619453692
About as convincing as the 'dialogue', ''bomb' bipolar nonsense
All a pension fund needs to do is invest to match future liabilities.
If that means de-risking from equities into bonds, as a few have done over the past decade, such as the BoE, then fine.
If you advocate govt policy to change behaviour I’d agree, rather than just let the govt to invest in what it wants.
Scrap Stamp Duty, scrap some of the more restrictive impositions on businesses that list here such as the DEI requirement on board makeup. We need to attract business and wealth creators not treat them as evil.
These funds may be invested badly. I doubt the govt or its people could do better. When I see Peter Kyle bragging about his picking investments I cringe. Let the market decide.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/23/peter-kyle-uk-business-secretary-activist-approach-economic-growth
They are still excellent schemes for the public sector by and large.
But the tragedy is that the people of Iran are in no position to "remove and replace" the regime, given the security resources available to the mullahs and their utter sadistic determination to crush dissent. It needs a third-party to help with the removing and replacing and if that's the grotesque orange narcissist then maybe that's the way it's going to have to be. Iran is a country of more than 90m, with an extraordinary culture and rich history. It deserves better than this.
(4)But the power of summary arrest conferred by subsection (1), (2) or (3) is exercisable only if the constable has reasonable grounds for believing that for any of the reasons mentioned in subsection (5) it is necessary to arrest the person in question.
(5)The reasons are—.......
.......(f) to prevent any prosecution for the offence from being hindered by the disappearance of the person in question.
'Reasonable grounds for belief' can include all manner of intelligence and rational inference from other facts.
The Telegraph just run with any old shit Farage tells them
Like the '6 councils in London' bollocks
Now, Birmingham
Labour cannot back down and do expectations management here, because every vote counts to them. And as it's a three way marginal, they have to give the impression they are leading the greens.
It's all very perplexing.
Firstly - we all agree, as regards with Mandy there’s mouthing at the moment to suggest trafficked sex?
Secondly - what we all agree, why we really fucking hate him is based on taking love of money to heights where we are happy to cast the first stone at him, as we would never ascend our own love of money to those heights?
Thirdly - none of us know what Mandy is guilty of yet. Correct me where wrong and please tell me, what have we seen that means there is going to be a charge and a certain conviction? None of us believe everything published in tranches of Epstein documents can be regarded as gospel level truth or strong evidence unless proved? So it remains further evidence will be needed to build the case for a charge and conviction?
Fourthly - if he was a UK security services asset inside the Epstein Construct, does it give Mandy a free pass, as in “not enough evidence to charge found - case closed?”
But some of you are/have been lawyers so you can see how bad I am at defending my client!
That’s the best I can do defending my client - telling judge in closing remarks how much I fucking hate the greed of my client, making me a hopeless lawyer. I’ll stick to being struggling pastoral farmer. Though it means I can never afford the sickest shoes.
‘ Keir Starmer has visited Gorton and Denton
The fact he has visited is interesting in and of itself - there is mounting optimism in Labour that they can win the by-election, that undecided voters will peel off and back them over the Greens
During his recent trip to China Starmer repeatedly refused to say whether he would visit
There were concerns that his unpopularity meant he would do more harm than good in a tight contest. He has now decided that he wants to be directly associated with the outcome
He insists that the by-election is a 'straight fight' between Labour and Reform - of course it isn't, it's a straight fight between Reform, Labour and the Greens, but that's the narrative Labour wants to frame for voters’
https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/2025963091997974877?s=61
The truth is that there are no secret, inside polls. That canvassing data has limited value.
Into the mix we have an incredibly unpopular government and a very popular local mayor snubbed for the nomination. The same mayor backing the Labour candidate to the hilt. A Reform semi-implosion. A Green Party that might eat a chunk of the vote.
The only honest thing to say is that a Green win, a Labour win and a Reform win are all possible. How likely is each one? I do not know. I do not think anyone else knows, either.
Labour has admitted to misleading Parliament after claiming Sir Keir Starmer did not work with Phil Shiner, the disgraced lawyer.
Louise Sandher-Jones, the veterans’ minister, apologised to MPs on Tuesday for her previous claim that the Prime Minister had never worked with Shiner on cases involving veterans of the Iraq war.
Shiner was accused of pursuing British soldiers with vexatious litigation and later exposed as a fraudster.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/f600edccd999cc09
If the Lab/Grn vote do a 2:1 split, Reform have to get near 40% to win. I suspect the great British electorate will sort themselves out and manage more than a 2:1 split.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1984/60/section/24
Reform wont come up blank but they wont be running Birmingham either
The pushing of these LE stories screams worried about not doing well enough to me. Not long to find out anyway
Those of us who less convinced about this narrative were told we were fools. Now it is clear that even if Labour is defeated on Thursday, they are certainly not falling apart, and I think a lot of rethinking needs to happen about the general level of political commentary. Too many people got lost in the story and lost touch with the reality- neither Reform nor the Greens have a good ground war, and Labour despite having about as bad a background to the by-election they could have had, are still in touch and indeed may even win.
The fact is that Reality doesn't give a toss about the opinions of some jumped up PPE grads in the mediascape. The political media complex thinks that nothing is true, it is simply how you sell it that matters- that was and is horseshit. So, while too many in the news media simply sign up for whichever propaganda camp suits them, the old school tradition of calling things for what they are, rather than selling opinion as truth still has much to recommend it.
Its called reporting the facts. One can only hope that the seizure of different media channels by various oligarchs- Musk, Marshall, Murdoch et al will end up with their output being discounted as the biased propaganda that it is.
Lab has a core vote still despite Gaza shedding their Muslim vote. This also has been a very safe Labour seat historically.
I think Green 1/1; Ref 2/1 and Lab 4/1 would be about right.
I see the usual ignorance on "public sector pensions" is getting an airing tonight from some of the usual suspects.
There are different kinds of pensions across "the public sector" - there's the Civil Service pension, Local Government pensions, Teachers' Pensions, the Police pension and the pension arrangements for other blue light workers as well as for the armed forces and NHS staff.
All are different and all are administered differently but as usual it's easier to generalise to try to make a point. The Local Government Pension is a Defined Contribution Scheme - I'm not sure the ones for the blue light workers and armed forces are but I could be wrong. You could argue Local Government workers should contribute more and indeed senior officers do and that comes (again, arguably) in lieu of having the money as salary.
We also have nonsense like that from Omid Djalili - there are very few "on the left" (whatever that means) who are publicly supportive of the theocracy in Tehran and a great number who would like the Mullahs removed but whatever follows has to be seen to be the will of the Iranian people and not the will of the White House or American business interests.
As we saw in Iraq, removing a tyrant is fairly easy if you have overwhelming force but what follows is the difficult bit. It's not just the politics but the infrastructure - ensuring the Iranian people have food, water, power and security would seem fairly important - that's not nation building in and of itself but as important as the political and governmental frameworks.
When I was there last April for the last Blues home game of last season the two things notable about the area by the Blues ground was the number of Palestine flags and the mass of litter and also fly tipped stuff like cupboards, mattresses and other stuff binmen wouldn’t normally take.
I expect the strike ends when the council gets rid of the current binmen and hires new.
A senior cabinet minister said: “The Greens are whipping up hatred and deliberately raising the salience of Gaza. They’re hammering us. They’re a totally different party to the one we thought they were. They’re just like Respect — it’s like fighting a by-election against George Galloway.”
In the end, the indefatigable George passed, we in Manchester are grateful for these small mercies.
Lab is screaming value and I will go down with the ship on this one.
Burnham is there every day by all accounts. Starmer has risked a visit.
They know this is a three way fight and nothing is decided.
I’d not expect Sutton C to go but I’d defer to Feersum Enjineeya on that if he has a different view as he’s local and he has canvassed there.
Maybe Bartley Green, Castle Bromwich, around Northfield. What parts have you been too that are flaggy ?
I may well be wrong but I just think City demographics work against them in Brum in a way they don’t in places like Sandwell, Tipton, Dudley and Walsall.
NY Times blog
https://x.com/thenewsagents/status/2026340978315981013
As to Gaza, how relevant this is to a by election I do not know, but it is ludicrous to suggest that the only rational policy towards the Israel/Palestine/Gaza issues are those the government has pursued or that a party is not entitled to propound its policy. A huge swathe of opinion in the UK has been affected and changed by the October pogrom and the subsequent Gaza catastrophe.
What I have learnt on PB from calling so many by elections wrong, I ignored every media organ sending one of their top or serious journalists there to vox pop, assess the mood.
Every media organ from right to left has done this in recent weeks and they all speak as one. Reform and green leaflets in windows, and placards in gardens - nothing in support of Labour. Betting markets can be manipulated I agree, but underpinning market prices I’m sure is attention to this sort of oral evidence I’m referring to. So market is right, green ahead, Labour third.
Labour third would crystallise where I think there vote actually is right now. “IF” economy improves, and other measures like channel crossings, immigration waves, NHS measures too in next couple of years, it will be interesting to see if it helps Labour to defend Parliamentary majorities as big as this one.
But having lost safe seat by shipping their voters in two different directions is going to make a media narrative horror show for Labour.
It's like being in Belfast.
This summer it will be paint the kerbstones.
Green 28
Lab 28
Reform 27
Con 6
Lib Dem 4
Other 6
The pension scheme of -say- Essex County Council will have been invested with asset managers.
If you want to rip up the contract that Essex County Council has with its employees and ex-employees, and then take any excess from the pension fund and give it to Central Government (or even give it to Essex County Council itself), then you will need primary legislation.
We can remove the tyranny (which isn't just Khamanei by any stretch) but essentially the country would be ungoverned until some form of new arrangement is put in place (whether republic, democracy or restored monarchy I agree should be left to the Iranian people).
No Government means no law and order short of what the invading forces could or would be willing to supply. It means ensuring the administration of law and the distribution of food (arguably the two main requirements for any society to function) are maintained across the country.
It also means it shouldn't be about the settling of scores or the creation of new ones as individual local power brokers take advantage of the vacuum.
That's the bit that a simplistic view always misses - removing the "bad guys" (however noble) creates a vacuum which the "good guys" can't always fill at once so the American would be looking at a prolonged involvement in Iran untila new order is created and settled.
The big people world will not be short of those who would love both current investigations never to get near a court or a trial - places where anything can be used as a defence, and anyone called, and the laws of libel don't apply, where privilege is absolute.
I am hoping for sharks...
I have family there and every street has flags.
Weoley Castle is ground zero of the whole thing nationwide.
Whether this matters for the local elections is another matter.
GOTV crucial then!
I presume Tice thinks they can do 10% better and they can take that additional profit to the Treasury for the greater good. However, if Reform aren't the investment geniuses they would have us believe, would they make up the shortfall from public funds or expect the public sector pensioners to take the hit?
Well, Farage's party do call themselves the re-fuckers.