This feels sub-optimal for Reform – politicalbetting.com
This feels sub-optimal for Reform – politicalbetting.com
Suspension of Matt Goodwin campaign manager (due to alleged racism and antisemitism) confirmed – www.bbc.co.uk/news/article…
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Reform 3/1
Green 1/2
As stupid as it sounds given the background to the by election, there could be value in this. A three way split is not beyond probability
Jimmy Carter.
Ron Brownstein (CNN analyst)
I might top up further this evening.
Reading it, it certainly seems fake.
However, I hope Goodwin is soundly beaten either by labour or the greens
If labour hang on it will because of Andy Burnham's commitment and canvassing
Incest porn to be banned, including stepmoms:-
Possession or publication of pornographic images of sex between relatives
...
That is to say, A being related to B as parent, grandparent, child, grandchild, brother, sister, half-brother, half-sister, uncle, aunt, nephew or niece.
...
“parent” includes an adoptive parent
https://bills.parliament.uk/publications/65033/documents/7901
Age verification mandated:-
by regulations made by statutory instrument require all regulated user-to-user services to use highly- [sic]effective age assurance measures to prevent children under the age of 16 from becoming or being users.
https://bills.parliament.uk/publications/64773/documents/7791
Why we do not allow comments on our stories about Andrew
Legal constraints, not deference, explain why comments are disabled on stories about the arrest of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/comments-feedback-andrew-9rkxvzjf2
Not sure how when you read them !
It's full of Tory and Reform spin.
ETA also:-
Member's explanatory statement
This amendment would extend the definition of extreme pornographic images to cover pornographic content that depicts unlawful sexual activities between family members, as proscribed by the Sexual Offences Act 2003. This includes specific blood relationships, foster parents and some step-family relationships. It does not cover the depiction of sexual activity that would be lawful to undertake between adults.
Had he have stood in Gorton it's 50 50 he would have won.
Had the Mayorality come up Labour would have lost to Reform. That would be a disaster for the North East.
I hope Burnham has learnt his lesson. There is no I in team.
I suspect Ms Rayner has read him the riot act.
Labour - supporters disillusioned, getting hammered in the press, midterm byelection
Green - surge of support with the young, motivated
Reform - supporters trend older, motivated, oblivious to negative press reports
Labour going to struggle with turnout and punishment beating
Green might underperform as their supporters fail to vote
Reform voters will turnout
So sadly, I'd suggest Reform are value
and Labour are talking up their chances to keep their campaigners motivated
Anyone on Labour should be ready to cash-out at any point on Thursday
The rest I agree with.
Rayner and Burnham are closely aligned and continue to pose a threat to Starmer
My estimation of the result hasn't changed much since the start of the campaign - roughly 50% chance Green win, 30% chance Reform, 20% chance Lab
The mood music atm does seem less disaatrous for Labour than it was in the middle of Burnham Interruptus four weeks ago. But too much can be read into mood music.
She's told him to get his men out. Now is not the time and if he thinks he's walking back in to Westminster to get Leaders job he's got to get past her and 4 or 5 others first.
Burnham will never be Labour leader.
.......Well you could've knocked me down with a feather
I was just looking for a suitable poster
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triumph_of_the_Will#/media/File:Triumph_des_Willens_poster.jpg
- 2024 result: combined Tory-Reform vote of 22% versus Labour-Green vote of 64%
- 2019 notional results: combined Tory-Brexit vote of 24% versus Labour-Green vote of 70%
Laying Reform seems the best value to me.
You do know there are several high profile women including Rayner, Powell and Nandy canvassing with Burnham
“Triumph des Willens” was a masterpiece of composition, planning and organisation. Whereas Reform is a pile of incompetence mixed with chaos.
Sure there’s the small matter of about 50 million dead people, because of the subject of Leni’s opus. But art excuses - isn’t that your take, incidently?
I really hope not !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcY6wm_nAWU
Channel 5 has uploaded this documentary to YouTube.
If Reform can only get to 30% at most then I think a split Labour/Green vote sees Reform finish third. If they can make it up to 35%, then it starts to get much more likely for them.
I think they're right on the cusp, which is what makes it hard to call. That and we have no idea whether the Greens can win a by-election campaign. We know that if it was the Lib Dems in their position they would likely have it sewn up.
https://news.sky.com/story/reddit-fined-14m-by-information-commisioners-office-over-age-verification-checks-13511472
Lack of age verification means all users could be under 13!
Powell has been at the forefront of the campaign
If the Green's candidate's interesting explanation for the Manchester Arena bombing has any traction perhaps Labour does have a chance after all?
Opposition parties will be all over their social media looking for stuff like this as will Reform over their opponents.
The wider concern I have with them is how would they ensure no repetition when selecting candidates to win over 300 seats in a General Election. How could anyone be guaranteed that their candidate is not another wrong un. The other parties have their duds Jared O’Mara or that Tory in Bridgend. But they are generally the exception not the rule.
What surprises me here is that they've suspended this guy instead of simply brazening it out.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe will join Marco Rubio at the classified briefing today in Congress on Iran-AXIOS
https://x.com/warmonitor3/status/2026363559232327850
Trump will talk about his plans for Iran during his State of the Union address to Congress-Reuters
You know that ubiquitous corporate cliche that "our strength is our people"?
It's rather the opposite here.
Does sound like Lab have poured all the resources into the area, and they've been hitting up Denton particularly hard to try and pull back the voters. The King of The North has been out and about several times, so they must feel like they'll hold on.
The most amusing result would be:
1. Lab with a tiny majority
2. RefUK
3. Grn
So, which of outcomes A - F do people think will be the final outcome on Friday?
A 1. Green 2 Reform 3 Labour
B 1. Green 2 Labour 3 Reform
C 1. Reform 2 Labour 3 Green
D 1. Reform 2 Green 3 Labour
E 1. Labour 2 Green 3 Reform
F 1 Labour 2 Reform 3 Green
My punt is B, but no more than a punt.
Namely the cash.
Yet another looking at raiding pensions to invest in ‘backing Britain’
These fuckers are all the same
Leave well alone.
https://x.com/ticerichard/status/2026302530943082550?s=61
Erdogan is an arse, but credit to anyone who can help liberate Persia from these religious thugs.
https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-mandelson-starmer-labour-farage-badenoch-12593360
"The arrest was prompted by a baseless suggestion that he was planning to leave the country and take up permanent residence abroad.
"There is absolutely no truth whatsoever in any such suggestion. We have asked the MPS [Metropolitan Police Service] for the evidence relied upon to justify the arrest. Peter Mandelson's overriding priority is to cooperate with the police investigation, as he has done throughout this process, and to clear his name."
World's smallest violin and all that!
More borrowing (Mr Market says are you Liz Truss in disguise? - and acts accordingly)
More tax (Mr Voter says fuck off)
More cuts (Mr Voter under 50 says fuck right off)
Privatise the NHS (Mr Voter has a fit of the vapours - and comes after Reform with pitchforks and burning brands)
Everybody else was saying "There looks to be a prima facie case for being a twat in a public office. Let's check it out, shall we?"
Perhaps Reform should have kept him to eat into the Green vote.
Put in place policies to stimulate the private sector and inward investment. Dont nick peoples pensions to invest in your pet projects, especially illiquid ones. Could very easily end up as Woodford on steroids.
I’ve said before I’d consider Reform over Labour. Labour are shit and probably won’t get my vote again but stuff like this and Farage wanting to ban work from home really does give one pause for thought.
I’d also strongly object to people who have settled status or ILR being ‘remigrated’. Illegals/roadmen/criminals, fuck em, but people who played by the rules at the time should be treated with respect.
https://x.com/omid9/status/2020484360588099681
'One thing the situation in Iran has made crystal clear is that whichever country, regime, group or political ideology, no matter how vile, disgusting or repressive, however many people are massacred or exterminated, as long as they are anti-West, specifically anti-US (and by extension anti-Israel), they will have the unquestioning support of the majority of the liberal left and the entertainment world.
The same “progressive left” who happily live in the west, profit from its relative freedoms, yet turn their activism on and off like a switch, or in some cases, even make a living out of it.
It is disappointing and exhausting.
But grateful to all those who have spoken out. Especially in the comedy community. It takes a lot of guts to do so when everyone around you is looking the other way.'
Their candidate strikes me as a bit shit but she’s not in a club of one. They all seem utter bellends.
I wonder if there's something like that here, boosting the implied probability for Reform and Green. As far as we know, it's a three horse tossup, in which case one of the horses shouldn't be 7-1. What the odds should be is another matter.
(And to be clear, a narrow win in a three-way scramble would objectively be a blooming awful result for Labour. Almost as bad as a narrow loss etc.)
https://x.com/LiveScience/status/2026323994396516607
They’ll be apologising to him and kissing his backside.
Steve Coogan: it's bigger than that Chris it's large. I mean if you've got a history book at home take it out throw it in the bin it's worthless. The history books now will have to be rewritten.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Pr8xnNi7OM
1. Encourage pension funds to divest themselves of high street properties so they can be sold or rented at a realistic rate.
2. Reduce the burden of regulation, taxation and energy costs to a point where Britain's economy can once again compete, making it attractive for funds to invest.
3. Gently expand the range of investment opportunities so funds can diversify
They will have done very well.
Buckle up buttercups
But we also don't think that the USA is best placed to remove and replace that regime.