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Is this confidence or hubris from Starmer? – politicalbetting.com

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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,757
    edited February 23
    Central figure in the Labour movement for the last 35 years being grilled under arrest by plod.
    Cheerio Keir, cheerio 350 Labour MPs
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,237
    edited February 23
    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    Jesus wept.

    From LBC

    ‘ Nottingham killer ‘was free to carry out rampage because health workers feared detaining him would be racist’’

    https://x.com/lbc/status/2025947562713203146?s=61

    So, on the downside three innocent people are dead, however on the plus side some ballbags didn’t get labelled racist for doing their job.

    It's good to see that they have their priorities right.
    Important to note here that it was not that health workers thought that detaining him would be racist - it was that they feared if they did they would be labelled racist. And probably this fear was justified. The cry of 'racist' is a trump card.
    We have created a system where ethnic minorities must be given preferential treatment.
    This, more than anything else, is why race relations are rather less cordial than they were.
    Politically, it will be interesting whether this appears at PMQ.

    The offence was in 2023 - on Rishi's watch - but it is a current Tory theme. Kemi is happy attacking the Govt for not fixing things that the Cons did.

    But is Mandelson more likely? Or will she hold off since he has been arrested, therefore it is sub judice aiui, and the Speaker might thwack her down.

    And it's the day before Gorton and Denton - where the Cons are absent.

    Would SEND be a non-contentious option at which to dig away.

    Perhaps she is spoilt for choice, but with no ideal option.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,302

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    I don’t get this attacking of Badenoch. She seems to be fitting into the role quite well. Her problem is the Tory brand. I’m not convinced any other leader would do any better until the frequently forecast Reform slump happens.

    I thought she handled Martin Lewis pretty well. Their Twitter exchange was cordial too.

    Quite how her day has been a clusterfuck is a mystery.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,750
    Taz said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    I don’t get this attacking of Badenoch. She seems to be fitting into the role quite well. Her problem is the Tory brand. I’m not convinced any other leader would do any better until the frequently forecast Reform slump happens.

    I thought she handled Martin Lewis pretty well. Their Twitter exchange was cordial too.

    Quite how her day has been a clusterfuck is a mystery.
    At this point I’m just scrolling past the astroturfing (on both sides), it feels like there’s quite a lot of it about at the moment.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,757
    Taz said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

    I don't know - depends whether people view those as the values that are competing with Reform's.
    Reform will fade over the next few months. Empty suits and failed Tories.
    People, yourself included, have been calling this repeatedly.

    Like people calling stock market crashes.

    Eventually you’ll be right.
    I dont really care whether i'm right or wrong. I dont keep score. I just riff on what i think.
    Opinions are just opinions short of buying a time machine.

  • TazTaz Posts: 25,302
    I’m guessing the labour investigation into overseas influence in our politics will be expanded now to look at Labour and not just opponents 🤔
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,302
    edited February 23

    Taz said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

    I don't know - depends whether people view those as the values that are competing with Reform's.
    Reform will fade over the next few months. Empty suits and failed Tories.
    People, yourself included, have been calling this repeatedly.

    Like people calling stock market crashes.

    Eventually you’ll be right.
    I dont really care whether i'm right or wrong. I dont keep score. I just riff on what i think.
    Opinions are just opinions short of buying a time machine.

    Opinions are like a**holes, everyone has one. Even those who have them sewn up and a bag, like an old boss of mine. It used to gurgle in meetings bizarrely.

    I’m always wary of Cassandra types who repeatedly forecast the same thing then proclaim wisdom when it happens. You may well not be one but they are among us.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,302

    Taz said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    I don’t get this attacking of Badenoch. She seems to be fitting into the role quite well. Her problem is the Tory brand. I’m not convinced any other leader would do any better until the frequently forecast Reform slump happens.

    I thought she handled Martin Lewis pretty well. Their Twitter exchange was cordial too.

    Quite how her day has been a clusterfuck is a mystery.
    At this point I’m just scrolling past the astroturfing (on both sides), it feels like there’s quite a lot of it about at the moment.
    I think you’re quite right and I do think both SKS and Badenoch have done well recently.
  • Taz said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    I don’t get this attacking of Badenoch. She seems to be fitting into the role quite well. Her problem is the Tory brand. I’m not convinced any other leader would do any better until the frequently forecast Reform slump happens.

    I thought she handled Martin Lewis pretty well. Their Twitter exchange was cordial too.

    Quite how her day has been a clusterfuck is a mystery.
    It wasn't and attacks on her are not working
  • Taz said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    I don’t get this attacking of Badenoch. She seems to be fitting into the role quite well. Her problem is the Tory brand. I’m not convinced any other leader would do any better until the frequently forecast Reform slump happens.

    I thought she handled Martin Lewis pretty well. Their Twitter exchange was cordial too.

    Quite how her day has been a clusterfuck is a mystery.
    It wasn't and attacks on her are not working
    Why do you think she's still poling worse than Sunak and the Tory performance at the 2024 GE?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,757
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

    I don't know - depends whether people view those as the values that are competing with Reform's.
    Reform will fade over the next few months. Empty suits and failed Tories.
    People, yourself included, have been calling this repeatedly.

    Like people calling stock market crashes.

    Eventually you’ll be right.
    I dont really care whether i'm right or wrong. I dont keep score. I just riff on what i think.
    Opinions are just opinions short of buying a time machine.

    Opinions are like arseholes, everyone has one. Even those who have them sewn up and a bag, like an old boss of mine.

    I’m always wary of Cassandra types who repeatedly forecast the same thing then proclaim wisdom when it happens. You may well not be one but they are among us.
    From a personal perspective the only thing i particularly care about or would crow about is Norfolk politics. The rest is a combination of ranting, riffing, guessing and projecting and genuine interest/curiosity.
    For any hits ill have a lot of misses.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,613

    Why has it taken so.long to arrest him. He had plenty of time to get rid of embarrasing stuff....

    They raided his houses earlier, so they'll already have any of the embarrassing stuff that he had at that time.
    Presumably this means they've gotten round to reading it.
  • I can't believe I was stuck in traffic whilst Mandy was getting lifted by the Old Bill.
  • Taz said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    I don’t get this attacking of Badenoch. She seems to be fitting into the role quite well. Her problem is the Tory brand. I’m not convinced any other leader would do any better until the frequently forecast Reform slump happens.

    I thought she handled Martin Lewis pretty well. Their Twitter exchange was cordial too.

    Quite how her day has been a clusterfuck is a mystery.
    It wasn't and attacks on her are not working
    Why do you think she's still poling worse than Sunak and the Tory performance at the 2024 GE?
    That was the legacy Boris and Truss handed her and she is taking on the task and improving

    It is 3 years to GE29
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,356
    Taz said:

    I’m guessing the labour investigation into overseas influence in our politics will be expanded now to look at Labour and not just opponents 🤔

    Who had "Labour's hidden links to US right wingers" on their bingo card?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,265
    Roger said:

    Josh Simons to be next Minister to go. You heard it here first

    Mike Tapp IMO
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,587
    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    We are grateful to have your keen political sense to know which way the wind is blowing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,613
    edited February 23

    Any chance in G and D just evaporated, lol

    Did it ?

    I'm not sure this makes any difference to the kicking by the press they've had over Mandelson already.
    If anything, it might be a minor plus that he's been nicked.
  • Taz said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    I don’t get this attacking of Badenoch. She seems to be fitting into the role quite well. Her problem is the Tory brand. I’m not convinced any other leader would do any better until the frequently forecast Reform slump happens.

    I thought she handled Martin Lewis pretty well. Their Twitter exchange was cordial too.

    Quite how her day has been a clusterfuck is a mystery.
    It wasn't and attacks on her are not working
    Why do you think she's still poling worse than Sunak and the Tory performance at the 2024 GE?
    That was the legacy Boris and Truss handed her and she is taking on the task and improving

    It is 3 years to GE29
    How is she improving?

    When she replaced Sunak the Tories were polling as high as 29% and leading some polls, now they are polling in the teens regularly.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 746
    MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    Jesus wept.

    From LBC

    ‘ Nottingham killer ‘was free to carry out rampage because health workers feared detaining him would be racist’’

    https://x.com/lbc/status/2025947562713203146?s=61

    So, on the downside three innocent people are dead, however on the plus side some ballbags didn’t get labelled racist for doing their job.

    It's good to see that they have their priorities right.
    Important to note here that it was not that health workers thought that detaining him would be racist - it was that they feared if they did they would be labelled racist. And probably this fear was justified. The cry of 'racist' is a trump card.
    We have created a system where ethnic minorities must be given preferential treatment.
    This, more than anything else, is why race relations are rather less cordial than they were.
    Politically, it will be interesting whether this appears at PMQ.

    The offence was in 2023 - on Rishi's watch - but it is a current Tory theme. Kemi is happy attacking the Govt for not fixing things that the Cons did.

    But is Mandelson more likely? Or will she hold off since he has been arrested, therefore it is sub judice aiui, and the Speaker might thwack her down.

    And it's the day before Gorton and Denton - where the Cons are absent.

    Would SEND be a non-contentious option at which to dig away.

    Perhaps she is spoilt for choice, but with no ideal option.
    LD have broadly welcomed SEND

    Majority of independent bodies have welcomed it.

    Local Council Bodies incl Tory Members broadly welcomed

    Bridget is trying to sort a mess going back many years exacerbated since Covid.

    Tories yet to comment.

    She cannot deny links to that mess in Government and Cabinet she sat in.

    If they come out against proposals they have to come up with alternative she has none

    She would be crazy to discuss it.

    Similarly Mandelson, his arrest long factored in, Starmer will reply with standard phrase every question.

    She can't mention economy

    She can't mention immigration after her awful own goal today

    She'll be limited toUni loans or Josh Simons
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,906
    edited February 23
    Nigelb said:

    Which liar is the liar here ?

    Trump, July 19: "All three nuclear sites in Iran were completely destroyed and/or OBLITERATED. It would take years to bring them back into service."

    Witkoff, Sunday: "They're probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material."

    https://x.com/peterbakernyt/status/2025911307501719659

    two cheeks of the same arse methinks
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 746

    Taz said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    I don’t get this attacking of Badenoch. She seems to be fitting into the role quite well. Her problem is the Tory brand. I’m not convinced any other leader would do any better until the frequently forecast Reform slump happens.

    I thought she handled Martin Lewis pretty well. Their Twitter exchange was cordial too.

    Quite how her day has been a clusterfuck is a mystery.
    It wasn't and attacks on her are not working
    Why do you think she's still poling worse than Sunak and the Tory performance at the 2024 GE?
    That was the legacy Boris and Truss handed her and she is taking on the task and improving

    It is 3 years to GE29
    How is she improving?

    When she replaced Sunak the Tories were polling as high as 29% and leading some polls, now they are polling in the teens regularly.
    When Vine asked that specific question she got very rattled and defensive which he noted.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,613
    edited February 23
    I love the sub headline the BBC have halfway down their report:

    "Who is Peter Mandelson?"
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,906

    The Scottish elections will be fun, with Murrell on trial and Mandelson awaiting trial. That's two parties representing 2/3 of the current MSPs with high profile scandals. Who is the more significant figure in each party?

    Not Murrell for sure
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,962
    edited February 23

    Taz said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    I don’t get this attacking of Badenoch. She seems to be fitting into the role quite well. Her problem is the Tory brand. I’m not convinced any other leader would do any better until the frequently forecast Reform slump happens.

    I thought she handled Martin Lewis pretty well. Their Twitter exchange was cordial too.

    Quite how her day has been a clusterfuck is a mystery.
    It wasn't and attacks on her are not working
    Why do you think she's still poling worse than Sunak and the Tory performance at the 2024 GE?
    That was the legacy Boris and Truss handed her and she is taking on the task and improving

    It is 3 years to GE29
    How is she improving?

    When she replaced Sunak the Tories were polling as high as 29% and leading some polls, now they are polling in the teens regularly.
    Trend is upward - just!

    image
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 746
    Nigelb said:

    Any chance in G and D just evaporated, lol

    Did it ?

    I'm not sure this makes any difference to the kicking by the press they've had over Mandelson already.
    If anything, it might be a minor plus that he's been nicked.
    Mandy arrest factored on last week.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,906

    Chris said:

    Its so over for Labour. Months and months to come of sleaze, filth and rot

    They're just praying that Mandelson and the Andrew Formerly Known will both be charged as quickly as possible so that it will all become sub judice and no one will be able to say anything about it until after the next election.
    The interesting question with Mandy is whether he'll be charged over anything that's not yet in the public domain.
    will have been a few bonfires in last week for sure
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,587
    Nigelb said:

    I love the sub headline the BBC have halfway down their report:

    "Who is Peter Mandelson?"

    I was talking to a girl on the phone in an insurabxe co when the prince of darkness was arrested.
    I.mentioned it and she had no idea who he was.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,730

    Taz said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    I don’t get this attacking of Badenoch. She seems to be fitting into the role quite well. Her problem is the Tory brand. I’m not convinced any other leader would do any better until the frequently forecast Reform slump happens.

    I thought she handled Martin Lewis pretty well. Their Twitter exchange was cordial too.

    Quite how her day has been a clusterfuck is a mystery.
    It wasn't and attacks on her are not working
    Why do you think she's still poling worse than Sunak and the Tory performance at the 2024 GE?
    That was the legacy Boris and Truss handed her and she is taking on the task and improving

    It is 3 years to GE29
    How is she improving?

    When she replaced Sunak the Tories were polling as high as 29% and leading some polls, now they are polling in the teens regularly.
    The biggest factor they need to reckon with is the rise of Reform, and it was the 2024 GE that allowed Farage to gain a significant foothold in parliament.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 746

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    Jesus Christ

    Vine obliterated her, all she got from Lewis was an apology for him being angry at her lies not the lies

    He's invited her to chst

    Like he did Hunt and Reeves

    Woe betide she doesn't agree with him, he'll eviscerate her on a monologue on live TV show.

    Most media headlines are Lewis calls out Kemi lieson live tv

    The rest is in your your head and daily mail spin

  • Taz said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    I don’t get this attacking of Badenoch. She seems to be fitting into the role quite well. Her problem is the Tory brand. I’m not convinced any other leader would do any better until the frequently forecast Reform slump happens.

    I thought she handled Martin Lewis pretty well. Their Twitter exchange was cordial too.

    Quite how her day has been a clusterfuck is a mystery.
    It wasn't and attacks on her are not working
    Why do you think she's still poling worse than Sunak and the Tory performance at the 2024 GE?
    That was the legacy Boris and Truss handed her and she is taking on the task and improving

    It is 3 years to GE29
    How is she improving?

    When she replaced Sunak the Tories were polling as high as 29% and leading some polls, now they are polling in the teens regularly.
    The biggest factor they need to reckon with is the rise of Reform, and it was the 2024 GE that allowed Farage to gain a significant foothold in parliament.
    Reform are going backwards, see graph posted just now.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,757
    https://x.com/i/status/2024794378544242735

    Mandelson Scandal was already by far the most negative factor on Labour (albeit fractionally behind Winter Fuel in cut through)

    I'm sure it'll be fine guys ;)
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,302
    Brixian59 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    Jesus Christ

    Vine obliterated her, all she got from Lewis was an apology for him being angry at her lies not the lies

    He's invited her to chst

    Like he did Hunt and Reeves

    Woe betide she doesn't agree with him, he'll eviscerate her on a monologue on live TV show.

    Most media headlines are Lewis calls out Kemi lieson live tv

    The rest is in your your head and daily mail spin

    This Martin Lewis

    https://x.com/hch_hill/status/2025974476135964696?s=61

    Bigger loans are the solution !!

    https://www.ft.com/content/d3b9eb0e-601f-11e8-ab47-8fd33f423c09
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 34,118
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Jesus wept.

    From LBC

    ‘ Nottingham killer ‘was free to carry out rampage because health workers feared detaining him would be racist’’

    https://x.com/lbc/status/2025947562713203146?s=61

    So, on the downside three innocent people are dead, however on the plus side some ballbags didn’t get labelled racist for doing their job and protecting the public and are probably still in a job.

    Trebles all round.

    See also the crimes we cannot talk about on PB.

    I get it. People are nice, kind and want to do the right thing. And then suddenly we get society into a tangle because people are afraid of being called racist. I recall furore when an older politician used the phrase 'coloured person' rather than 'person of colour'. They were trying to be respectful yet somehow transgressed and were attacked for it.
    Also happened to posh Luvvie Benedict Cumberbatch

    His response was pathetic. Full on hairshirt and self reproachment instead of telling the offendotrons to go fuck themselves

    ‘ “I’m devastated to have caused offence by using this outmoded terminology. I offer my sincere apologies. I make no excuse for my being an idiot and know the damage is done.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2015/jan/26/benedict-cumberbatch-apologises-after-calling-black-actors-coloured
    That was odd though. I think it was a weird Hollywood initiation ritual, like you have to humiliate yourself to get in the club? There is no way on God's green earth that Cumberbutch would say 'coloured' to describe someone - it's not a UK term at all, not even the racists use it.
  • I am thinking about going on a three month round the world cruise later on this year.
  • MattW said:

    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Taz said:

    Jesus wept.

    From LBC

    ‘ Nottingham killer ‘was free to carry out rampage because health workers feared detaining him would be racist’’

    https://x.com/lbc/status/2025947562713203146?s=61

    So, on the downside three innocent people are dead, however on the plus side some ballbags didn’t get labelled racist for doing their job.

    It's good to see that they have their priorities right.
    Important to note here that it was not that health workers thought that detaining him would be racist - it was that they feared if they did they would be labelled racist. And probably this fear was justified. The cry of 'racist' is a trump card.
    We have created a system where ethnic minorities must be given preferential treatment.
    This, more than anything else, is why race relations are rather less cordial than they were.
    Politically, it will be interesting whether this appears at PMQ.

    The offence was in 2023 - on Rishi's watch - but it is a current Tory theme. Kemi is happy attacking the Govt for not fixing things that the Cons did.

    But is Mandelson more likely? Or will she hold off since he has been arrested, therefore it is sub judice aiui, and the Speaker might thwack her down.

    And it's the day before Gorton and Denton - where the Cons are absent.

    Would SEND be a non-contentious option at which to dig away.

    Perhaps she is spoilt for choice, but with no ideal option.
    The Nottingham murders were in 2023 but the non-racist release occurred three years earlier. Calocane was sectioned four times between then and his killing spree.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,757
    edited February 23
    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,086

    Taz said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Roger said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From reports like this it seems whatever the headline poll numbers are showing Labour have been canvassing hard the whole constituency as have Reform, while the Greens rather complacently have just been putting up signs in the more Manchester bit and leafletting. Labour on the ground may be right and that is why they have risked a SKS visit. If the Labour ground game on a cold and dark February by election day gets their voters out while Green sympathetic students and young people stay in bed or on the sofa and have not got a postal vote and the Greens can't find their supporters to knock them up then Labour look good to hold on.

    https://conservativehome.com/2026/02/18/alexandra-vivona-the-fear-and-loathing-in-gorton-and-denton/

    On the face of it Reform should not win, Reform could win an overall majority on UNS and still not win Gorton and Denton and that is probably why Farage has gone off to the Indian Ocean. If the Labour and Green votes split the left down the middle though Reform could still scrape home

    Lab missed a trick I thought when they moved the writ of not waiting for a date in Easter holidays when all the students have gone home for three weeks.
    Not once does the Tory supporter explain why they can't find a Tory voter?

    Bizarre
    Just when you thought Reform couldn't become more racist and unelectable Kemi steps up to say Reform are just regurgitating Tory policies."

    #kemigetsmuchworse
    I saw that.

    A staggering error of judgement given what she was referring to.

    I suspect she's been rattled by her cluster fuck day on radio and tv
    Mandelson arrested and its all about Kemi's successful day with Martin Lewis as he confirms
    I don’t get this attacking of Badenoch. She seems to be fitting into the role quite well. Her problem is the Tory brand. I’m not convinced any other leader would do any better until the frequently forecast Reform slump happens.

    I thought she handled Martin Lewis pretty well. Their Twitter exchange was cordial too.

    Quite how her day has been a clusterfuck is a mystery.
    It wasn't and attacks on her are not working
    Why do you think she's still poling worse than Sunak and the Tory performance at the 2024 GE?
    That was the legacy Boris and Truss handed her and she is taking on the task and improving

    It is 3 years to GE29
    How is she improving?

    When she replaced Sunak the Tories were polling as high as 29% and leading some polls, now they are polling in the teens regularly.
    Trend is upward - just!

    image
    Tending above Labour, which matters as Reform decline.

    The trend is her friend.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,789
    And the LibDems thought they had problems when Jeremy Thorpe was arrested!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,276
    edited February 23
    After Andrew's arrest Mandelson's was inevitable for effectively the same offence. I expect some relief from Buckingham Palace and the royal family that the pressure now shifts from them last week to Downing Street and the Labour Party this week
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,302

    And the LibDems thought they had problems when Jeremy Thorpe was arrested!

    RIP Rinka 😢
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,086
    So Starmer got his visit in to the by-election before Mandy got arrested.

    I'm sure he had no idea...
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,566

    I am thinking about going on a three month round the world cruise later on this year.

    One way?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,366
    edited February 23
    Mandelson arrested? Bloody hell. Events are moving quickly.
  • At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,730
    Kemi gets praise from Andrew Neil

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2025984725815288134

    Kemi Badenoch was able to handle herself but this three-to-one pile on should never have been allowed by @GMB. The presenters should have intervened. And just who the hell does Martin Lewis think he is?
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,302
    edited February 23
    About the Green candidate

    ‘ Exactly how does a working class ‘plumber’ amass a property portfolio worth £1.2m by the age of 34?’

    https://x.com/blaimgame/status/2025850819455639701?s=61

    Has this guy never had to call a plumber out of hours !!
  • You know the footballers are dumb theme?

    Gianluca Prestianni suspended after claiming Vinícius abuse was ‘anti-gay’

    Benfica’s Argentinian player accused of racially abusing Brazilian winger receives provisional one-match suspension from Uefa and faces up to ten-game ban


    Benfica’s Gianluca Prestianni will miss the return leg of the Champions League play-off against Real Madrid on Wednesday after he was accused of racially abusing Vinícius Júnior.

    Uefa has provisionally suspended the Argentinian winger, who was seen speaking to the Real forward with his shirt over his mouth. Vinícius complained to the referee that Prestianni had used the word mono or monkey towards him after the Brazilian had scored the only goal of the first leg. Prestianni denied using racist language.

    It is unusual for a player to be suspended before the outcome of a disciplinary process, but Prestianni has claimed he used an “anti-gay” slur rather than a racist one — and that would also mean a lengthy ban.


    https://www.thetimes.com/sport/football/article/gianluca-prestianni-banned-for-real-vinicius-3b353sfjb
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,932
    edited February 23
    Former UK Ambassador to the US and Donald Trump

    Just think what this says for our international relationships

    Sam Coates on Sky reporting there will be dozens of labour mps again with their head in their hands asking why Keir Starmer ignored all of the warning signals, whether or not there is one rule for some and another for others when it comes to appointing Mandelson, also when it comes to his judgement and how he didn't spot the pitfalls of the Mandelson appointment when he made it, despite all the warnings in December 2024
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,566

    I am thinking about going on a three month round the world cruise later on this year.

    Visiting Greenland, Canada, the USA, Mexico and Venezuela. What could go wrong?
  • Former UK Ambassador to the US and Donald Trump arrested

    Just think what this says for our international relationships

    Sam Coates on Sky reporting there will be dozens of labour mps again with their head in their hands asking why Keir Starmer ignored all of the warning signals, whether or not there is one rule for some and another for others when it comes to appointing Mandelson, also when it comes to his judgement and how he didn't spot the pitfalls of the Mandelson appointment when he made it, despite all the warnings in December 2024

    Donald Trump has been arrested?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,757

    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Alright Michael Winner, spoiling my fun
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,587

    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Who was shitting on rent boys ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,276

    Former UK Ambassador to the US and Donald Trump arrested

    Just think what this says for our international relationships

    Sam Coates on Sky reporting there will be dozens of labour mps again with their head in their hands asking why Keir Starmer ignored all of the warning signals, whether or not there is one rule for some and another for others when it comes to appointing Mandelson, also when it comes to his judgement and how he didn't spot the pitfalls of the Mandelson appointment when he made it, despite all the warnings in December 2024

    Well at least UK police are doing something about Brits named in the Epstein files, what are the Americans doing about Americans named in the Epstein files? Nothing at present
  • At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Alright Michael Winner, spoiling my fun
    Imagine the scenes if Labour do win on Thursday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,276

    And the LibDems thought they had problems when Jeremy Thorpe was arrested!

    Well say what you like about Mandy but at least he isn't a dog killer!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,589

    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Alright Michael Winner, spoiling my fun
    Imagine the scenes if Labour do win on Thursday.
    They're my best result on Betfair so not all bad
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 746

    Former UK Ambassador to the US and Donald Trump arrested

    Just think what this says for our international relationships

    Sam Coates on Sky reporting there will be dozens of labour mps again with their head in their hands asking why Keir Starmer ignored all of the warning signals, whether or not there is one rule for some and another for others when it comes to appointing Mandelson, also when it comes to his judgement and how he didn't spot the pitfalls of the Mandelson appointment when he made it, despite all the warnings in December 2024

    Anything to deflect from an outstanding performance from Bridget Phillipson today.

    Seeking to resolve the Tory SEND mess
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,757

    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Alright Michael Winner, spoiling my fun
    Imagine the scenes if Labour do win on Thursday.
    They'll be dancing on the streets of St Pancras
    And Labour will be chained to the enormous turd until they all sink together
  • glwglw Posts: 10,760
    Nigelb said:

    Which liar is the liar here ?

    Trump, July 19: "All three nuclear sites in Iran were completely destroyed and/or OBLITERATED. It would take years to bring them back into service."

    Witkoff, Sunday: "They're probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material."

    https://x.com/peterbakernyt/status/2025911307501719659

    I saw an amusing comment last week that Trump was planning to reobliterate the Iranian nuclear programme. People who actually know what the hell they are talking about pointed out at the time that the US probably hadn't destroyed or rendered unusable the HEU. Iranians aren't stupid, they have known for a long time what they have to do to defend their enrichment and storage facilites against US or Israeli attacks.

    At some point if the hole is deep enough even a nuclear attack will fail. There was a plan at one point for a bunker under the Pentagon that was meant to survive even if the Soviets used their largest warheads.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,086
    Brixian59 said:

    Former UK Ambassador to the US and Donald Trump arrested

    Just think what this says for our international relationships

    Sam Coates on Sky reporting there will be dozens of labour mps again with their head in their hands asking why Keir Starmer ignored all of the warning signals, whether or not there is one rule for some and another for others when it comes to appointing Mandelson, also when it comes to his judgement and how he didn't spot the pitfalls of the Mandelson appointment when he made it, despite all the warnings in December 2024

    Anything to deflect from an outstanding performance from Bridget Phillipson today.

    Seeking to resolve the Tory SEND mess
    God you're dull....
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,302
    HYUFD said:

    And the LibDems thought they had problems when Jeremy Thorpe was arrested!

    Well say what you like about Mandy but at least he isn't a dog killer!!
    We are a nation of animal lovers (apart from cats where I’m concerned) so I think the public would dislike Thorpe more than Mandy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,613

    I am thinking about going on a three month round the world cruise later on this year.

    On past form, if you take that long off, the world might not be there long enough for you to make it all the way round.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,587
    Brixian59 said:

    Former UK Ambassador to the US and Donald Trump arrested

    Just think what this says for our international relationships

    Sam Coates on Sky reporting there will be dozens of labour mps again with their head in their hands asking why Keir Starmer ignored all of the warning signals, whether or not there is one rule for some and another for others when it comes to appointing Mandelson, also when it comes to his judgement and how he didn't spot the pitfalls of the Mandelson appointment when he made it, despite all the warnings in December 2024

    Anything to deflect from an outstanding performance from Bridget Phillipson today.

    Seeking to resolve the Tory SEND mess
    You had better complain to the police then...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,366
    edited February 23
    A lot of people right now are probably wishing they'd never met and become friends with Jeffrey Epstein.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,757
    HYUFD said:

    And the LibDems thought they had problems when Jeremy Thorpe was arrested!

    Well say what you like about Mandy but at least he isn't a dog killer!!
    The involvement of Jack Straw in the Thorpe affair is an often overlooked nugget
  • Brixian59 said:

    Former UK Ambassador to the US and Donald Trump arrested

    Just think what this says for our international relationships

    Sam Coates on Sky reporting there will be dozens of labour mps again with their head in their hands asking why Keir Starmer ignored all of the warning signals, whether or not there is one rule for some and another for others when it comes to appointing Mandelson, also when it comes to his judgement and how he didn't spot the pitfalls of the Mandelson appointment when he made it, despite all the warnings in December 2024

    Anything to deflect from an outstanding performance from Bridget Phillipson today.

    Seeking to resolve the Tory SEND mess
    God you're dull....
    Predictable whataboutery
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,613
    Another filip for UK manufacturing.

    The total number of Eurofighters to be procured is increasing. The new list will most likely be as follows:

    ▪️UK: 20 + 20 Eurofighter (Brand new)
    ▪️Qatar: 12 + 12 Eurofighter
    ▪️Oman: 12 Eurofighter (to be upgraded in UK)

    56 + 20 (option) Eurofighter for Turkish Air Force
    https://x.com/T_Nblty/status/2025866144175829345
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,566

    So Starmer got his visit in to the by-election before Mandy got arrested.

    I'm sure he had no idea...

    He has had no idea about anything since he became PM. Why would he have any idea about Mandy’s arrest?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,757
    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people right now are probably wishing they'd never met and become friends with Jeffrey Epstein.

    Or Peter Mandelson
  • Pulpstar said:

    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Alright Michael Winner, spoiling my fun
    Imagine the scenes if Labour do win on Thursday.
    They're my best result on Betfair so not all bad

    I have a really balanced book in this by-election.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,555

    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Alright Michael Winner, spoiling my fun
    Imagine the scenes if Labour do win on Thursday.
    If they do, I'm going to the poor house.

    Got a horrible sinking feeling the Greens could just miss out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,246
    Battlebus said:

    I am thinking about going on a three month round the world cruise later on this year.

    One way?
    yes, that is how round the world works...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,522
    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people right now are probably wishing they'd never met and become friends with Jeffrey Epstein.

    Especially the victims.

    The culprits deserve everything they get.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,302
    Brixian59 said:

    Former UK Ambassador to the US and Donald Trump arrested

    Just think what this says for our international relationships

    Sam Coates on Sky reporting there will be dozens of labour mps again with their head in their hands asking why Keir Starmer ignored all of the warning signals, whether or not there is one rule for some and another for others when it comes to appointing Mandelson, also when it comes to his judgement and how he didn't spot the pitfalls of the Mandelson appointment when he made it, despite all the warnings in December 2024

    Anything to deflect from an outstanding performance from Bridget Phillipson today.

    Seeking to resolve the Tory SEND mess
    By expanding entitlement, putting more demand on schools, and costing us more

    Genius

    I hope central govt will provide the cash needed.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,701
    Of course, one unintended benefit Mandy's arrest gives to Sir Keir is that it robs the Right of one of its most potent slogans: Two Tier Keir. How can this accusation be made again when Sir Keir has engineered the incarceration of his great friend and mentor? The Right will probably want Mandy to be released without charge, so they can hint that Sir Keir got him off.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,613
    The Republican Party Has a Nazi Problem
    How did the GOP become a haven for slogans and ideas straight out of the Third Reich?
    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/04/republican-party-nazi-problem/686055/?gift=otEsSHbRYKNfFYMngVFweEW5ikNORoRTu76_mPLkAB4&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,757

    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Alright Michael Winner, spoiling my fun
    Imagine the scenes if Labour do win on Thursday.
    If they do, I'm going to the poor house.

    Got a horrible sinking feeling the Greens could just miss out.
    The most interesting result from a shake up perspective is Labour narrowly beat Greens with Reform struggling in the low 20s, Tories and LDs match their GE %s
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,086

    So Starmer got his visit in to the by-election before Mandy got arrested.

    I'm sure he had no idea...

    He has had no idea about anything since he became PM. Why would he have any idea about Mandy’s arrest?
    Fair point...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,366

    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people right now are probably wishing they'd never met and become friends with Jeffrey Epstein.

    Especially the victims.

    The culprits deserve everything they get.
    The victims weren't really friends of his. Agree 100% about the culprits.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,488
    edited February 23

    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Alright Michael Winner, spoiling my fun
    Imagine the scenes if Labour do win on Thursday.
    If they do, I'm going to the poor house.

    Got a horrible sinking feeling the Greens could just miss out.
    I think we’re headed for a Reform win as Labour and the Greens split the vote.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,566

    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people right now are probably wishing they'd never met and become friends with Jeffrey Epstein.

    Or Peter Mandelson
    I don’t suppose it will happen, but if son of the manse Gordon Brown is somehow implicated, I will drown in popcorn.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 746

    Kemi gets praise from Andrew Neil

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2025984725815288134

    Kemi Badenoch was able to handle herself but this three-to-one pile on should never have been allowed by @GMB. The presenters should have intervened. And just who the hell does Martin Lewis think he is?

    Hardly a credible endorsement from a once great journalist now making an utter fool of himself in his bedroom podcasts
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,522

    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Alright Michael Winner, spoiling my fun
    Imagine the scenes if Labour do win on Thursday.
    Unless they bring in a bunch of Geordies and Mackems to count the votes, nobody will win until Friday.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,757

    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people right now are probably wishing they'd never met and become friends with Jeffrey Epstein.

    Or Peter Mandelson
    I don’t suppose it will happen, but if son of the manse Gordon Brown is somehow implicated, I will drown in popcorn.
    Hes been furiously trying to get ahead of the story for, no doubt, pukka reasons
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 522

    Mandy arrested

    "... You're getting sent away, Oh Mandy ..."
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,567

    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people right now are probably wishing they'd never met and become friends with Jeffrey Epstein.

    Or Peter Mandelson
    I don’t suppose it will happen, but if son of the manse Gordon Brown is somehow implicated, I will drown in popcorn.
    Brown has been blowing an awful lot of smoke recently.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,750

    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Alright Michael Winner, spoiling my fun
    Imagine the scenes if Labour do win on Thursday.
    If they do, I'm going to the poor house.

    Got a horrible sinking feeling the Greens could just miss out.
    I think we’re headed for a Reform as Labour and the Greens split the vote.
    I’m starting to think Greens will underwhelm. I think Labour might do better than expected.

    I’d have said Green v Ref a week ago with Greens winning, now I think all three could plausibly take it but I think Ref could come through the middle.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,757

    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Alright Michael Winner, spoiling my fun
    Imagine the scenes if Labour do win on Thursday.
    Unless they bring in a bunch of Geordies and Mackems to count the votes, nobody will win until Friday.
    Theyll still have won on Thursday, they arent schroedingers votes
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 746

    https://x.com/i/status/2024794378544242735

    Mandelson Scandal was already by far the most negative factor on Labour (albeit fractionally behind Winter Fuel in cut through)

    I'm sure it'll be fine guys ;)

    It's factored in duffer

    It's now sub judice

    Likely Andrew Mount batten Windsor and Mandelson investigations will be linked and run similar course.

    It's clear Andrew told Epstein, Epstein is the key global figure with Andrew.

    Mandelson is a pawn to the 2 main players.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,566

    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Alright Michael Winner, spoiling my fun
    Imagine the scenes if Labour do win on Thursday.
    Unless they bring in a bunch of Geordies and Mackems to count the votes, nobody will win until Friday.
    How many spoilt voting papers in the ensuing fight in the counting centre?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,086

    At least Starmer didnt do something really stupid like tie himself to a by election result the day a central figure in the Labour movenent was arrested

    Calm down, have you forgotten the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 or my all time favourite one, the 2006 Dunfermline and West Fife by-election which the the Lib Dems won despite their leader having to resign for being an alcoholic, one contender had to quit after he admitted to shitting on rent boys, another Simon Hughes, the straight choice chap, came out as bi.
    Alright Michael Winner, spoiling my fun
    Imagine the scenes if Labour do win on Thursday.
    If they do, I'm going to the poor house.

    Got a horrible sinking feeling the Greens could just miss out.
    Mandy's arrest must help shift Labour --> Green votes,
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 9,124
    Impressed Philipson has got some positive reviews of her reforms to SEND from relevant charities. Quite a turnaround from tbe mood music before.

    Personally relevant for me so will be watching this closely
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,007
    I think the Greens will come to regret their drug policy .

    They’re still favourites for the by-election but the policy really will harm them in the long run .

    The argument for legalising cannabis is less toxic and I’d fully support that but not drugs like heroin and crack .


  • Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people right now are probably wishing they'd never met and become friends with Jeffrey Epstein.

    Or Peter Mandelson
    I don’t suppose it will happen, but if son of the manse Gordon Brown is somehow implicated, I will drown in popcorn.
    Hoping Mandy sings like a canary, and then Blair is in the nick in short order.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,522
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people right now are probably wishing they'd never met and become friends with Jeffrey Epstein.

    Especially the victims.

    The culprits deserve everything they get.
    The victims weren't really friends of his. Agree 100% about the culprits.
    I imagine that many of the victims thought that he was their friend.

    Just like the victims of grooming gangs and their "boyfriends".
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,937

    Andy_JS said:

    A lot of people right now are probably wishing they'd never met and become friends with Jeffrey Epstein.

    Or Peter Mandelson
    I don’t suppose it will happen, but if son of the manse Gordon Brown is somehow implicated, I will drown in popcorn.
    Hes been furiously trying to get ahead of the story for, no doubt, pukka reasons
    A man whose idea of pleasure is Raith Rovers? A man whose idea of a present is a textbook on economics? If Epstein had managed to corrupt Gordon Brown I will take my hat off to him.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,567
    rkrkrk said:

    Impressed Philipson has got some positive reviews of her reforms to SEND from relevant charities. Quite a turnaround from tbe mood music before.

    Personally relevant for me so will be watching this closely

    Amazing what a £4bn bung can do.
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