politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON to LAB swing in 40 key marginals moves to 4.5% accordin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON to LAB swing in 40 key marginals moves to 4.5% according to new ComRes ITV poll
In all marginals polling the figure you need to look for is what the vote split was in the seats polled at the last general election. In this case it was 37% CON 37% LAB. So CON down 6 to 31 and LAB up 3 to 40 equates to a 4.5% CON to LAB swing.
Comments
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4.5% swing - bang in line with national polling tbh.0
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Lib Dems on 8% looks... high.0
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UKIP coming off the boil but not changing anything much.0
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Any squeezing from 15 UKIP, 8 LD, 5 Greens looks like it'll probably be broadly neutral at first glance.0
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Cons need a big tax cutting budget.
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Yes it is in line with national polling and shows what a mountain the tories have to climb. This has been a very busy week but this weekend I must get some money on a Labour majority before the price collapses.0
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That's not too far out of line with what Lord Ashcroft has found. In his constituency polls on average, the Lib Dems are averaging around 6.5% or so (south of the border) in seats where they are not in contention:Pulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% looks... high.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/missing-presumed-red-2010-lib-dems.html0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11411587/Britain-risks-turning-into-France-under-Labour-government-warns-Bank-of-America.html
How long before the smears start?0 -
One only has to look at the Indy ref to see that business warnings change minds in the privacy of the booth.Floater said:
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That's not good news for them, is it?antifrank said:
That's not too far out of line with what Lord Ashcroft has found. In his constituency polls on average, the Lib Dems are averaging around 6.5% or so (south of the border) in seats where they are not in contention:Pulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% looks... high.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/missing-presumed-red-2010-lib-dems.html0 -
Alanbrooke
"Pah Roger metropolitan posturing. Round Ludlow the paperboy gets a pitchfork up the jacksy if he distributes the tax planning Guardian."
It's not the Ludlow paperboys using the Guardian to do their tax planning that surprises me -without metropolitan lovelies to entertain them what are they to do?-but that you kept Vaughans hot pork sandwiches quiet for so long0 -
At 6.5% in such seats, the Lib Dems have reasonable hopes of escaping with a mauling rather than a massacre. At 8% in such seats, the Lib Dems should be bricking themselves. The problem is that the difference between the two is really hard to judge from polls.Tissue_Price said:
That's not good news for them, is it?antifrank said:
That's not too far out of line with what Lord Ashcroft has found. In his constituency polls on average, the Lib Dems are averaging around 6.5% or so (south of the border) in seats where they are not in contention:Pulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% looks... high.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/missing-presumed-red-2010-lib-dems.html0 -
They need to be losing their deposits in these seatsTissue_Price said:
That's not good news for them, is it?antifrank said:
That's not too far out of line with what Lord Ashcroft has found. In his constituency polls on average, the Lib Dems are averaging around 6.5% or so (south of the border) in seats where they are not in contention:Pulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% looks... high.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/missing-presumed-red-2010-lib-dems.html
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B-b-b-b-b-b-b-but the swingback?
Bank smears Labour, are we surprised?Floater said:
Anyone else wondering if the anti-Ed attacks by the Daily Fail and CCHQ have inoculated the public against it early ?0 -
Pages 11 and 12
Tories ahead in Labour held marginals of <2%.
Inference is that it's in London. Glenda?
Also neck and neck in marginals in SW/Wales.
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Notice a bit of weakness in UKIP shares in recent polls.Last months ICM had UKIP and Lib Dems both on 11% .If there is a slip in UKIP share in next weeks Guardian/ICM we could see UKIP back into 4th place.A sign of things to come?0
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FPT and in response to Antifrank:-
Re no 1: it is not greed to want to keep your own money.
Buti I would suggest a 4th reason: The feeling that the government does not spend wisely what it collects. This particularly irks me. For instance, think of the amounts wasted over the years on daft IT projects - billions and billions which could either have been put to better use or not taken from taxpayers in the first place.
Governments need to address this. Labour, in particular, are wedded to the idea that the amount you spend is a measure of quality, rather than how or what you spend it on. I have zero confidence in their ability to spend wisely and sensibly, while always remembering that it is our money they are spending.
I don't have much more faith in other parties' ability to spend wisely either0 -
88% of people saying (must be fibbers) Ed being Crap is not going to effect their vote.
Oh how we laugh.
Tory PBers presumably still ploughing in to Dave as PM after GE 20150 -
Floater
"How long before the smears start?
I just read an article in the tabloid Indy which said 'Bernie Ecclestone's playboy son-in-law has just paid £50,000 to have dinner with David Cameron"
I mean what is there not to like?0 -
I'd want very long odds on thatbigjohnowls said:Dave as next PM
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Small sample sizes health warnings on all of these sub-samplesPulpstar said:
Can you point me to the pdf ?chestnut said:Pages 11 and 12
Tories ahead in Labour held marginals of
http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ITV-News_Marginal-Constituencies-Poll_February-2015.pdf0 -
There's no smear. They are pointing out the likely policies that Labour's emphasis on predistribution will mean (e.g. a big increase in the minimum wage) and what the consequences might be. Since Ed Milliband himself has said that Hollande has shown a viable alternative then he cannot possibly consider it a smear to be told that his similar policies will lead us to being more like France.Freggles said:B-b-b-b-b-b-b-but the swingback?
Bank smears Labour, are we surprised?Floater said:
Anyone else wondering if the anti-Ed attacks by the Daily Fail and CCHQ have inoculated the public against it early ?
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Do you share the opinion of Ed Being Crap?bigjohnowls said:88% of people saying (must be fibbers) Ed being Crap is not going to effect their vote.
Oh how we laugh.
Tory PBers presumably still ploughing in to Dave as PM after GE 2015
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http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ITV-News_Marginal-Constituencies-Poll_February-2015.pdfPulpstar said:
Can you point me to the pdf ?chestnut said:Pages 11 and 12
Tories ahead in Labour held marginals of0 -
Peak Kipper.
The wheels are finally coming off of UKIP.
0 seats at the general election is looking like real value.
The Conservative Party - the party of big business. No wonder Dave is desperate to stay in the EU.Roger said:Floater
"How long before the smears start?
I just read an article in the tabloid Indy which said 'Bernie Ecclestone's playboy son-in-law has just paid £50,000 to have dinner with David Cameron"
I mean what is there not to like?
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Cyclefree
"Re no 1: it is not greed to want to keep your own money."
I have a suspicion that's only something fairly rich self employed people feel. Most others just think it's just something you do to be part of society.
You're not Paul Bloomfield are you? Seriously this is going to be huge!0 -
I do in terms of him being a serious drag on LAB but he knows how to target a weak spot i will give him that.Danny565 said:
Do you share the opinion of Ed Being Crap?bigjohnowls said:88% of people saying (must be fibbers) Ed being Crap is not going to effect their vote.
Oh how we laugh.
Tory PBers presumably still ploughing in to Dave as PM after GE 2015
I am pretty confident EICIPM on 8/5/15 though (in to 2.36 betfair)0 -
Conservatives are making gains in London off these subsamples... which doesn't exactly tie with other polls.Tissue_Price said:
Small sample sizes health warnings on all of these sub-samplesPulpstar said:
Can you point me to the pdf ?chestnut said:Pages 11 and 12
Tories ahead in Labour held marginals of
http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ITV-News_Marginal-Constituencies-Poll_February-2015.pdf0 -
I wonder if Bernie ever banked that cheque.Roger said:Floater
"How long before the smears start?
I just read an article in the tabloid Indy which said 'Bernie Ecclestone's playboy son-in-law has just paid £50,000 to have dinner with David Cameron"
I mean what is there not to like?0 -
MP_SE: that is a nasty comment about Cameron and his wife.
It might be worth reminding you that it was the Labour party which sought to spread a really revolting smear about Cameron's wife and child.0 -
When Britain's best political bookie has just cut them to 8-11 in Castle PointMP_SE said:Peak Kipper.
The wheels are finally coming off of UKIP.
0 seats at the general election is looking like real value.
The Conservative Party - the party of big business. No wonder Dave is desperate to stay in the EU.Roger said:Floater
"How long before the smears start?
I just read an article in the tabloid Indy which said 'Bernie Ecclestone's playboy son-in-law has just paid £50,000 to have dinner with David Cameron"
I mean what is there not to like?
LOL...0 -
I think he will poll less than at the by-election but a comfortable win nonetheless. Not suprising as it is their most friendly seat in terms of demographics.Danny565 said:
Carswell would surely hold even if UKIP crashed to about 6% nationally.MP_SE said:Peak Kipper.
The wheels are finally coming off of UKIP.
0 seats at the general election is looking like real value.
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A Lib Dem swingback.
You heard it here first.0 -
As someone pointed to with a Guardian article on the previous thread.Cyclefree said:FPT and in response to Antifrank:-
Re no 1: it is not greed to want to keep your own money.
Buti I would suggest a 4th reason: The feeling that the government does not spend wisely what it collects. This particularly irks me. For instance, think of the amounts wasted over the years on daft IT projects - billions and billions which could either have been put to better use or not taken from taxpayers in the first place.
Governments need to address this. Labour, in particular, are wedded to the idea that the amount you spend is a measure of quality, rather than how or what you spend it on. I have zero confidence in their ability to spend wisely and sensibly, while always remembering that it is our money they are spending.
I don't have much more faith in other parties' ability to spend wisely either
4) It's easy to do, and the deliberately byzantine tax code invites it.
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Watcher
"I wonder if Bernie ever banked that cheque."
LOL!0 -
I suspect that even if UKIP's national poll rating dropped far below what we have been expecting to this point, they have now found a regional base in which they would win seats, comprising the Thames estuary and the fenlands. To use Morris Dancer's terminology, they are cornering the Grumpy Turnip vote.Danny565 said:
Carswell would surely hold even if UKIP crashed to about 6% nationally.MP_SE said:Peak Kipper.
The wheels are finally coming off of UKIP.
0 seats at the general election is looking like real value.
I'm not convinced that the number of seats that they win will be much different if they poll 15% nationally or 5% nationally.0 -
TBH - I'm reasonably confident that Carswell would hold Clacton no matter if he was standing as Tory, UKIP or Independant - he appears to be very well regarded there.MP_SE said:
I think he will poll less than at the by-election but a comfortable win nonetheless. Not suprising as it is their most friendly seat in terms of demographics.Danny565 said:
Carswell would surely hold even if UKIP crashed to about 6% nationally.MP_SE said:Peak Kipper.
The wheels are finally coming off of UKIP.
0 seats at the general election is looking like real value.0 -
Poor Byzantium. Basil II wouldn't have tolerated a rubbish tax code.0
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I removed the comment but I still feel like there is not a lot he wouldn't do to get large donations. Accepting donations from Russian businessmen looked really bad after all that has happened in Ukraine.Cyclefree said:MP_SE: that is a nasty comment about Cameron and his wife.
It might be worth reminding you that it was the Labour party which sought to spread a really revolting smear about Cameron's wife and child.
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Yes, all those hearts leaping, as workers open wage slips and note with joy how much tax they've paid every week, and wish they'd handed over more.Roger said:Cyclefree
"Re no 1: it is not greed to want to keep your own money."
I have a suspicion that's only something fairly rich self employed people feel. Most others just think it's just something you do to be part of society.
If asked, the majority of people would say they'd like to keep as much of what they earn as possible.
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***** Betting Post *****
Following a series of highly encouraging series of polling figures for Labour over the past 2 - 3 days, my "Bet of the Week" is for theTories to win FEWER than 284.5 seats on offer from bet365 at odds of 10/11 (1.91 decimal). Unless the Blues start to recover very soon they are starting to look like a busted flush.
As ever, DYOR.0 -
Yep, surely they'll know which areas to target now (UKIP) and will be working Essex/Kent and Lincolnshire ?antifrank said:
I suspect that even if UKIP's national poll rating dropped far below what we have been expecting to this point, they have now found a regional base in which they would win seats, comprising the Thames estuary and the fenlands. To use Morris Dancer's terminology, they are cornering the Grumpy Turnip vote.Danny565 said:
Carswell would surely hold even if UKIP crashed to about 6% nationally.MP_SE said:Peak Kipper.
The wheels are finally coming off of UKIP.
0 seats at the general election is looking like real value.
I'm not convinced that the number of seats that they win will be much different if they poll 15% nationally or 5% nationally.0 -
Who on earth is Paul Bloomfield?Roger said:Cyclefree
"Re no 1: it is not greed to want to keep your own money."
I have a suspicion that's only something fairly rich self employed people feel. Most others just think it's just something you do to be part of society.
You're not Paul Bloomfield are you? Seriously this is going to be huge!
I am not rich nor self-employed. I do pay all my tax and probably rather more - in percentage terms - than many people richer than me since I am in the PAYE class. But I feel that it's my money not the government's and if the government is going to take it off me they have an overriding duty to spend it sensibly and wisely, which they don't at present.
I fully accept that there are matters where it makes sense to make collective provision and that those who have more, relatively, should contribute more.
What I currently see is that those who have the most do not pay the most and so the burden is borne by (a) those in the middle - like me (though unlike some on here I did not - and do not - complain when child benefit was removed because I could understand why it was done and it seemed absurd to me to give money to those who don't really need it); and (b) those at the bottom who do not get the support and help that they ought to get because too much of the money which is raised and spent is wasted.
My priorities for my money are (1) my family; (2) the charities I support; and (3) then others. I do not consider those priorities to be evidence of greed. And I resent those who think that people who work hard and want to keep the fruits of their hard work are greedy.
Labour seems to think that I should feel grateful for being allowed to keep any of my money at all. I don't accept that premise. The state is (or should be) my servant - not my master.
(Edited): You also make the assumption (common on the Left) of confusing the state with society. They are two different things. And a person does not need to pay tax to be part of society. Otherwise you are saying that all the unemployed, housewives or those earning too little to pay tax are somehow not part of society. A curious view and not one I agree with.
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BJO
"I do in terms of him being a serious drag on LAB but he knows how to target a weak spot i will give him that."
I think we've all confused dorkishness with uselessness. I only know one person who thought Ed was better than he was getting credit for being. But that person was the only person I know who actually had any direct knowledge of him. I've been very surprised at his political acumen over the last few weeks which has been in stark contrast to Dave's lack of it0 -
I agree.peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Following a series of highly encouraging series of polling figures for Labour over the past 2 - 3 days, my "Bet of the Week" is for theTories to win FEWER than 284.5 seats on offer from bet365 at odds of 10/11 (1.91 decimal). Unless the Blues start to recover very soon they are starting to look like a busted flush.
As ever, DYOR.
As ever, DYOFR0 -
Just seen UKIP are now favourite for Castle Point. I am not aware of any polls conducted there. Its an unusual seat as the previously indie controlled council are coming out in support of them. Bob Spink is out suppoting UKIP there as well if I remember correctly.Pulpstar said:
When Britain's best political bookie has just cut them to 8-11 in Castle PointMP_SE said:Peak Kipper.
The wheels are finally coming off of UKIP.
0 seats at the general election is looking like real value.
The Conservative Party - the party of big business. No wonder Dave is desperate to stay in the EU.Roger said:Floater
"How long before the smears start?
I just read an article in the tabloid Indy which said 'Bernie Ecclestone's playboy son-in-law has just paid £50,000 to have dinner with David Cameron"
I mean what is there not to like?
LOL...
0 -
Audrey has some amazing findings though!!Peter_the_Punter said:
I agree.peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Following a series of highly encouraging series of polling figures for Labour over the past 2 - 3 days, my "Bet of the Week" is for theTories to win FEWER than 284.5 seats on offer from bet365 at odds of 10/11 (1.91 decimal). Unless the Blues start to recover very soon they are starting to look like a busted flush.
As ever, DYOR.
As ever, DYOFR0 -
Indeed - where it will make a massive difference is the number of 2nd places that they notch up (principally across Northern working class constituencies). If any bookie is feeling brave - spreadbetting the number of 2nd places that UKIP get could be highly profitable. (or suicidally loss-making of course)antifrank said:
I suspect that even if UKIP's national poll rating dropped far below what we have been expecting to this point, they have now found a regional base in which they would win seats, comprising the Thames estuary and the fenlands. To use Morris Dancer's terminology, they are cornering the Grumpy Turnip vote.Danny565 said:
Carswell would surely hold even if UKIP crashed to about 6% nationally.MP_SE said:Peak Kipper.
The wheels are finally coming off of UKIP.
0 seats at the general election is looking like real value.
I'm not convinced that the number of seats that they win will be much different if they poll 15% nationally or 5% nationally.
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Mr. Roger, I think you're overrating Miliband. He's thrown a lot of stuff at the Coalition. This has been the only aspect that's even slightly stuck, and that partly due to Fink's mishandling. By the law of averages, it was bound to happen sooner or later.0
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It's totally irrelevant. Votes in seats where you are not in contention matter not. Votes where you are mean everything. You've get to get out of this vote shares fetish.Tissue_Price said:
That's not good news for them, is it?antifrank said:
That's not too far out of line with what Lord Ashcroft has found. In his constituency polls on average, the Lib Dems are averaging around 6.5% or so (south of the border) in seats where they are not in contention:Pulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% looks... high.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/missing-presumed-red-2010-lib-dems.html
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OMG PFP and PTP both posting at the same time this could be expensive for the PB social fund!!0
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Cyclefree
Apart from the last line I agree with most of that.
You will hear who Paul Bloomfield is ad nauseam over these next few days. He's big news and with good reason. It seems our tax collectors are way beyond pathetic0 -
What really looked bad to me was the Labour Party auctioning a copy of the Hutton report signed by Cherie Blair to raise money. For God's sake, raising money on the back of a report caused by the suicide of a Government employee. How squalid and lacking in class was that.MP_SE said:
I removed the comment but I still feel like there is not a lot he wouldn't do to get large donations. Accepting donations from Russian businessmen looked really bad after all that has happened in Ukraine.Cyclefree said:MP_SE: that is a nasty comment about Cameron and his wife.
It might be worth reminding you that it was the Labour party which sought to spread a really revolting smear about Cameron's wife and child.
0 -
Mr. Smithson, "You've get to get out of this vote shares fetish"
Huzzah! A Lib Dem convert from the evils of PR to the virtues of FPTP! 0 -
I miss Audrey's amiable ramblings.bigjohnowls said:
Audrey has some amazing findings though!!Peter_the_Punter said:
I agree.peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Following a series of highly encouraging series of polling figures for Labour over the past 2 - 3 days, my "Bet of the Week" is for theTories to win FEWER than 284.5 seats on offer from bet365 at odds of 10/11 (1.91 decimal). Unless the Blues start to recover very soon they are starting to look like a busted flush.
As ever, DYOR.
As ever, DYOFR
Free the PB One!
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Most amusing and unsurprising
http://order-order.com/2015/02/13/owen-jones-is-followed-by-the-one-percent/
So that'd be about 3000, or the every weekend SWP march attenders brigade.0 -
Rochford and Southend East:
Local government
Currently the 31 Council seats held in Rochford and Southend East are 7 Conservative (from Rochford), 10 Independent, 7 Labour, 5 Conservative and 2 UKIP (from Southend).
UKIP + BNP last time there was 10.8% !
Big no hoper Labour and Lib Dem votes to squeeze too.0 -
The Economist published an interesting article earlier:Lennon said:
Indeed - where it will make a massive difference is the number of 2nd places that they notch up (principally across Northern working class constituencies). If any bookie is feeling brave - spreadbetting the number of 2nd places that UKIP get could be highly profitable. (or suicidally loss-making of course)antifrank said:
I suspect that even if UKIP's national poll rating dropped far below what we have been expecting to this point, they have now found a regional base in which they would win seats, comprising the Thames estuary and the fenlands. To use Morris Dancer's terminology, they are cornering the Grumpy Turnip vote.Danny565 said:
Carswell would surely hold even if UKIP crashed to about 6% nationally.MP_SE said:Peak Kipper.
The wheels are finally coming off of UKIP.
0 seats at the general election is looking like real value.
I'm not convinced that the number of seats that they win will be much different if they poll 15% nationally or 5% nationally.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21643151-watch-not-where-ukip-wins-seats-may-where-it-comes-second-beyond-beachheads
Matthew Goodwin saying they could potentially come second in 50-60 northern Labour seats. It is unfortunate that Tory voters do not vote tactically otherwise Labour could lose some seats in this election and potentially a lot in 2020. Heywood and Middleton being the perfect example. Several thousand Tory votes and all UKIP needed was 600 votes to take a Labour stronghold.0 -
Maybe. We will know on 8/5/15 either way.Roger said:BJO
"I do in terms of him being a serious drag on LAB but he knows how to target a weak spot i will give him that."
I think we've all confused dorkishness with uselessness. I only know one person who thought Ed was better than he was getting credit for being. But that person was the only person I know who actually had any direct knowledge of him. I've been very surprised at his political acumen over the last few weeks which has been in stark contrast to Dave's lack of it0 -
12% does seem a bit low but I wouldn't have expected too many people to choose it as their primary factor. I wonder if Cameron will regret trying to get out of the debates? The closer we get to the election the more likely he is to need a game-changer. It's all very well thinking that Miliband can only win from the debates because his ratings are so low. But surely having the debates would make the campaign more presidential than it would otherwise be.
If I was a Tory strategist I'd want it to be as presidential a campaign as possible.0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31459067Roger said:Cyclefree
Apart from the last line I agree with most of that.
You will hear who Paul Bloomfield is ad nauseam over these next few days. He's big news and with good reason. It seems our tax collectors are way beyond pathetic
HMRC is pretty dysfunctional. A reminder of which politician decided it was a great idea to merge Customs and Excise with the Inland Revenue would be helpful.0 -
You've got my vote, but I actually think the majority feels the way Roger suggests. They think 'their money' is what comes out after HMG has had its way. It's not altruism, its a sort of sheep like resignation. It's the same mentality that means things can get worse and worse and worse and people will put up with it.Cyclefree said:
Who on earth is Paul Bloomfield?Roger said:Cyclefree
"Re no 1: it is not greed to want to keep your own money."
I have a suspicion that's only something fairly rich self employed people feel. Most others just think it's just something you do to be part of society.
You're not Paul Bloomfield are you? Seriously this is going to be huge!
I am not rich nor self-employed. I do pay all my tax and probably rather more - in percentage terms - than many people richer than me since I am in the PAYE class. But I feel that it's my money not the government's and if the government is going to take it off me they have an overriding duty to spend it sensibly and wisely, which they don't at present.
I fully accept that there are matters where it makes sense to make collective provision and that those who have more, relatively, should contribute more.
What I currently see is that those who have the most do not pay the most and so the burden is borne by (a) those in the middle - like me (though unlike some on here I did not - and do not - complain when child benefit was removed because I could understand why it was done and it seemed absurd to me to give money to those who don't really need it); and (b) those at the bottom who do not get the support and help that they ought to get because too much of the money which is raised and spent is wasted.
My priorities for my money are (1) my family; (2) the charities I support; and (3) then others. I do not consider those priorities to be evidence of greed. And I resent those who think that people who work hard and want to keep the fruits of their hard work are greedy.
Labour seems to think that I should feel grateful for being allowed to keep any of my money at all. I don't accept that premise. The state is (or should be) my servant - not my master.
(Edited): You also make the assumption (common on the Left) of confusing the state with society. They are two different things. And a person does not need to pay tax to be part of society. Otherwise you are saying that all the unemployed, housewives or those earning too little to pay tax are somehow not part of society. A curious view and not one I agree with.0 -
If the Lib Dems are polling 7% nationally they don't want to be polling 8% in irrelevant seats.MikeSmithson said:
It's totally irrelevant. Votes in seats where you are not in contention matter not. Votes where you are mean everything. You've get to get out of this vote shares fetish.Tissue_Price said:
That's not good news for them, is it?antifrank said:
That's not too far out of line with what Lord Ashcroft has found. In his constituency polls on average, the Lib Dems are averaging around 6.5% or so (south of the border) in seats where they are not in contention:Pulpstar said:Lib Dems on 8% looks... high.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/missing-presumed-red-2010-lib-dems.html0 -
Thank you for reminding me to purchase the book by Norman Baker on David Kelly's death. It is something I have been meaning to read for years.Cyclefree said:
What really looked bad to me was the Labour Party auctioning a copy of the Hutton report signed by Cherie Blair to raise money. For God's sake, raising money on the back of a report caused by the suicide of a Government employee. How squalid and lacking in class was that.MP_SE said:
I removed the comment but I still feel like there is not a lot he wouldn't do to get large donations. Accepting donations from Russian businessmen looked really bad after all that has happened in Ukraine.Cyclefree said:MP_SE: that is a nasty comment about Cameron and his wife.
It might be worth reminding you that it was the Labour party which sought to spread a really revolting smear about Cameron's wife and child.
It is shocking that so many supposedly intelligent people would have been aware of the signed report being auctioned off and not thought it was at the very least slightly distasteful.
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4.5% swing is in line with the average swing from the last 3 Comres phone polls, and slightly below their online polls.0
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"You will hear who Paul Bloomfield is ad nauseam these next few days. He's big news and with good reason. It seems our tax collectors are way beyond pathetic"
http://hmrcisshite.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/hsbc-taxgate-email-unearthed.html#comment-form.0 -
Paul Staines has been caught out there in the comments methinks !maaarsh said:Most amusing and unsurprising
http://order-order.com/2015/02/13/owen-jones-is-followed-by-the-one-percent/
So that'd be about 3000, or the every weekend SWP march attenders brigade.0 -
It is shocking that no-one in the Labour Party which is always parading its supposedly superior moral conscience realised quite how distasteful it was.MP_SE said:
Thank you for reminding me to purchase the book by Norman Baker on David Kelly's death. It is something I have been meaning to read for years.Cyclefree said:
What really looked bad to me was the Labour Party auctioning a copy of the Hutton report signed by Cherie Blair to raise money. For God's sake, raising money on the back of a report caused by the suicide of a Government employee. How squalid and lacking in class was that.MP_SE said:
I removed the comment but I still feel like there is not a lot he wouldn't do to get large donations. Accepting donations from Russian businessmen looked really bad after all that has happened in Ukraine.Cyclefree said:MP_SE: that is a nasty comment about Cameron and his wife.
It might be worth reminding you that it was the Labour party which sought to spread a really revolting smear about Cameron's wife and child.
It is shocking that so many supposedly intelligent people would have been aware of the signed report being auctioned off and not thought it was at the very least slightly distasteful.
What on earth did Cherie Blair think she was doing when she signed it? She had nothing to do with the inquiry. Did no-one - even for a moment - think how Dr Kelly's widow and daughters might feel?
0 -
If you think our politicians ever get into a spot of bother, you might want to read this for a sense of perspective:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/13/argentina-president-formally-charged-alberto-nisman0 -
I second that, although somehow I doubt Audrey would choose to return even if offered the opportunity. PB.com is poorer and less entertaining without her.Peter_the_Punter said:
I miss Audrey's amiable ramblings.bigjohnowls said:
Audrey has some amazing findings though!!Peter_the_Punter said:
I agree.peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Following a series of highly encouraging series of polling figures for Labour over the past 2 - 3 days, my "Bet of the Week" is for theTories to win FEWER than 284.5 seats on offer from bet365 at odds of 10/11 (1.91 decimal). Unless the Blues start to recover very soon they are starting to look like a busted flush.
As ever, DYOR.
As ever, DYOFR
Free the PB One!0 -
Was audrey warned off, or is she just busy with her algorithms?Peter_the_Punter said:
I miss Audrey's amiable ramblings.bigjohnowls said:
Audrey has some amazing findings though!!Peter_the_Punter said:
I agree.peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Following a series of highly encouraging series of polling figures for Labour over the past 2 - 3 days, my "Bet of the Week" is for theTories to win FEWER than 284.5 seats on offer from bet365 at odds of 10/11 (1.91 decimal). Unless the Blues start to recover very soon they are starting to look like a busted flush.
As ever, DYOR.
As ever, DYOFR
Free the PB One!
0 -
I missed it, what happened to her?peter_from_putney said:
I second that, although somehow I doubt Audrey would choose to return even if offered the opportunity. PB.com is poorer and less entertaining without her.Peter_the_Punter said:
I miss Audrey's amiable ramblings.bigjohnowls said:
Audrey has some amazing findings though!!Peter_the_Punter said:
I agree.peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Following a series of highly encouraging series of polling figures for Labour over the past 2 - 3 days, my "Bet of the Week" is for theTories to win FEWER than 284.5 seats on offer from bet365 at odds of 10/11 (1.91 decimal). Unless the Blues start to recover very soon they are starting to look like a busted flush.
As ever, DYOR.
As ever, DYOFR
Free the PB One!0 -
That's revolting.MP_SE said:
Thank you for reminding me to purchase the book by Norman Baker on David Kelly's death. It is something I have been meaning to read for years.Cyclefree said:
What really looked bad to me was the Labour Party auctioning a copy of the Hutton report signed by Cherie Blair to raise money. For God's sake, raising money on the back of a report caused by the suicide of a Government employee. How squalid and lacking in class was that.MP_SE said:
I removed the comment but I still feel like there is not a lot he wouldn't do to get large donations. Accepting donations from Russian businessmen looked really bad after all that has happened in Ukraine.Cyclefree said:MP_SE: that is a nasty comment about Cameron and his wife.
It might be worth reminding you that it was the Labour party which sought to spread a really revolting smear about Cameron's wife and child.
It is shocking that so many supposedly intelligent people would have been aware of the signed report being auctioned off and not thought it was at the very least slightly distasteful.0 -
Bounce for PM !antifrank said:If you think our politicians ever get into a spot of bother, you might want to read this for a sense of perspective:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/13/argentina-president-formally-charged-alberto-nisman0 -
FWIW... I reckon UKIP will poll 9% and only get Carswell into the HoC.
On the LibDems, I take their 2010 vote and reduce that total by a quarter if their MP is standing again, a third if they are not.
On that basis, it is pretty much carnage.
And if there 12% who remainto be prised away because of Ed - in a tight election that is huge.0 -
You're misreading the 12% figure - alot will be in the Conservative column already and the occasional one or two will think Ed Miliband is a better PM than DaveMarqueeMark said:FWIW... I reckon UKIP will poll 9% and only get Carswell into the HoC.
On the LibDems, I take their 2010 vote and reduce that total by a quarter if their MP is standing again, a third if they are not.
On that basis, it is pretty much carnage.
And if there 12% who remainto be prised away because of Ed - in a tight election that is huge.
At any rate the "swing voter" proportion of this 12% will be alot less.0 -
I think she peed off OGH once too often.Ishmael_X said:
Was audrey warned off, or is she just busy with her algorithms?Peter_the_Punter said:
I miss Audrey's amiable ramblings.bigjohnowls said:
Audrey has some amazing findings though!!Peter_the_Punter said:
I agree.peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Following a series of highly encouraging series of polling figures for Labour over the past 2 - 3 days, my "Bet of the Week" is for theTories to win FEWER than 284.5 seats on offer from bet365 at odds of 10/11 (1.91 decimal). Unless the Blues start to recover very soon they are starting to look like a busted flush.
As ever, DYOR.
As ever, DYOFR
Free the PB One!0 -
Suggestions that Uncle Vince is going to lose his seat are verbotenPeter_the_Punter said:
I think she peed off OGH once too often.Ishmael_X said:
Was audrey warned off, or is she just busy with her algorithms?Peter_the_Punter said:
I miss Audrey's amiable ramblings.bigjohnowls said:
Audrey has some amazing findings though!!Peter_the_Punter said:
I agree.peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Following a series of highly encouraging series of polling figures for Labour over the past 2 - 3 days, my "Bet of the Week" is for theTories to win FEWER than 284.5 seats on offer from bet365 at odds of 10/11 (1.91 decimal). Unless the Blues start to recover very soon they are starting to look like a busted flush.
As ever, DYOR.
As ever, DYOFR
Free the PB One! ? 0 -
MM - slightly confused by that last sentence, please could you explain for the dim ones like me.MarqueeMark said:FWIW... I reckon UKIP will poll 9% and only get Carswell into the HoC.
On the LibDems, I take their 2010 vote and reduce that total by a quarter if their MP is standing again, a third if they are not.
On that basis, it is pretty much carnage.
And if there 12% who remainto be prised away because of Ed - in a tight election that is huge.0 -
Verboten und Strafbar.Pulpstar said:
Suggestions that Uncle Vince is going to lose his seat are verbotenPeter_the_Punter said:
I think she peed off OGH once too often.Ishmael_X said:
Was audrey warned off, or is she just busy with her algorithms?Peter_the_Punter said:
I miss Audrey's amiable ramblings.bigjohnowls said:
Audrey has some amazing findings though!!Peter_the_Punter said:
I agree.peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Following a series of highly encouraging series of polling figures for Labour over the past 2 - 3 days, my "Bet of the Week" is for theTories to win FEWER than 284.5 seats on offer from bet365 at odds of 10/11 (1.91 decimal). Unless the Blues start to recover very soon they are starting to look like a busted flush.
As ever, DYOR.
As ever, DYOFR
Free the PB One! ?0 -
Presumably Socrates still banned tooPulpstar said:
Suggestions that Uncle Vince is going to lose his seat are verbotenPeter_the_Punter said:
I think she peed off OGH once too often.Ishmael_X said:
Was audrey warned off, or is she just busy with her algorithms?Peter_the_Punter said:
I miss Audrey's amiable ramblings.bigjohnowls said:
Audrey has some amazing findings though!!Peter_the_Punter said:
I agree.peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Following a series of highly encouraging series of polling figures for Labour over the past 2 - 3 days, my "Bet of the Week" is for theTories to win FEWER than 284.5 seats on offer from bet365 at odds of 10/11 (1.91 decimal). Unless the Blues start to recover very soon they are starting to look like a busted flush.
As ever, DYOR.
As ever, DYOFR
Free the PB One! ?
I thought Sean T was going to get it overturned?0 -
Looks in-line with other marginals polling.
What will concern the Con's is that their position doesn't appear to be improving at all.
EICIPM.0 -
I've read it - and very persuasive it is too.Pulpstar said:
That's revolting.MP_SE said:
Thank you for reminding me to purchase the book by Norman Baker on David Kelly's death. It is something I have been meaning to read for years.Cyclefree said:
What really looked bad to me was the Labour Party auctioning a copy of the Hutton report signed by Cherie Blair to raise money. For God's sake, raising money on the back of a report caused by the suicide of a Government employee. How squalid and lacking in class was that.MP_SE said:
I removed the comment but I still feel like there is not a lot he wouldn't do to get large donations. Accepting donations from Russian businessmen looked really bad after all that has happened in Ukraine.Cyclefree said:MP_SE: that is a nasty comment about Cameron and his wife.
It might be worth reminding you that it was the Labour party which sought to spread a really revolting smear about Cameron's wife and child.
It is shocking that so many supposedly intelligent people would have been aware of the signed report being auctioned off and not thought it was at the very least slightly distasteful.0 -
Even with Scotland 17-1 is far too long on a Labour majority.0
-
I'd love to know what's keeping the Conservative majority price at 6-1 though.0
-
All we need to do is for Ed to hold this position for another 70 days and he is PM!
Go Ed!0 -
These seat models are all going to start heading Labour's way fairly soon if the polls don't start swinging back alot more than they have.0
-
Well, Socco was always chancing his arm, so it's not so easy to campaign for him.bigjohnowls said:
Presumably Socrates still banned tooPulpstar said:
Suggestions that Uncle Vince is going to lose his seat are verbotenPeter_the_Punter said:
I think she peed off OGH once too often.Ishmael_X said:
Was audrey warned off, or is she just busy with her algorithms?Peter_the_Punter said:
I miss Audrey's amiable ramblings.bigjohnowls said:
Audrey has some amazing findings though!!Peter_the_Punter said:
I agree.peter_from_putney said:***** Betting Post *****
Following a series of highly encouraging series of polling figures for Labour over the past 2 - 3 days, my "Bet of the Week" is for theTories to win FEWER than 284.5 seats on offer from bet365 at odds of 10/11 (1.91 decimal). Unless the Blues start to recover very soon they are starting to look like a busted flush.
As ever, DYOR.
As ever, DYOFR
Free the PB One! ?
I thought Sean T was going to get it overturned?
And SeanT has a number of previous convictions himself, so is perhaps not the best possible barrister for the defendant.0 -
Jacks ARSE disagrees
Wonder who will be proved right either myself or JackW0 -
Not gloating yet but as Kevin Keegan would sayPulpstar said:These seat models are all going to start heading Labour's way fairly soon if the polls don't start swinging back alot more than they have.
I would love it if ....!!
0 -
Quick counterfactual - If the Conservatives were in the same position Labour are in at the moment wrt the polls (Labour had incumbency etc...) then the odds would be different I'm guessing ?0
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The ARSE has a good record (as does Rod Crosby) but as each day goes by without the Tories showing any real indication of recovery, it becomes harder to see quite where the votes are coming from to keep Cam in Downing Street.bigjohnowls said:Jacks ARSE disagrees
Wonder who will be proved right either myself or JackW
Obviously a Conservative majority is out of question (but was always highly unlikely) but at this rate you struggle to see beyond Lab largest party or a tiny Labour majority.
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