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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON to LAB swing in 40 key marginals moves to 4.5% accordin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON to LAB swing in 40 key marginals moves to 4.5% according to new ComRes ITV poll
In all marginals polling the figure you need to look for is what the vote split was in the seats polled at the last general election. In this case it was 37% CON 37% LAB. So CON down 6 to 31 and LAB up 3 to 40 equates to a 4.5% CON to LAB swing.
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http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/missing-presumed-red-2010-lib-dems.html
How long before the smears start?
"Pah Roger metropolitan posturing. Round Ludlow the paperboy gets a pitchfork up the jacksy if he distributes the tax planning Guardian."
It's not the Ludlow paperboys using the Guardian to do their tax planning that surprises me -without metropolitan lovelies to entertain them what are they to do?-but that you kept Vaughans hot pork sandwiches quiet for so long
edit: No, it's ICM.
Bank smears Labour, are we surprised?
Anyone else wondering if the anti-Ed attacks by the Daily Fail and CCHQ have inoculated the public against it early ?
Tories ahead in Labour held marginals of <2%.
Inference is that it's in London. Glenda?
Also neck and neck in marginals in SW/Wales.
Re no 1: it is not greed to want to keep your own money.
Buti I would suggest a 4th reason: The feeling that the government does not spend wisely what it collects. This particularly irks me. For instance, think of the amounts wasted over the years on daft IT projects - billions and billions which could either have been put to better use or not taken from taxpayers in the first place.
Governments need to address this. Labour, in particular, are wedded to the idea that the amount you spend is a measure of quality, rather than how or what you spend it on. I have zero confidence in their ability to spend wisely and sensibly, while always remembering that it is our money they are spending.
I don't have much more faith in other parties' ability to spend wisely either
Oh how we laugh.
Tory PBers presumably still ploughing in to Dave as PM after GE 2015
"How long before the smears start?
I just read an article in the tabloid Indy which said 'Bernie Ecclestone's playboy son-in-law has just paid £50,000 to have dinner with David Cameron"
I mean what is there not to like?
http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ITV-News_Marginal-Constituencies-Poll_February-2015.pdf
The wheels are finally coming off of UKIP.
0 seats at the general election is looking like real value. The Conservative Party - the party of big business. No wonder Dave is desperate to stay in the EU.
"Re no 1: it is not greed to want to keep your own money."
I have a suspicion that's only something fairly rich self employed people feel. Most others just think it's just something you do to be part of society.
You're not Paul Bloomfield are you? Seriously this is going to be huge!
I am pretty confident EICIPM on 8/5/15 though (in to 2.36 betfair)
It might be worth reminding you that it was the Labour party which sought to spread a really revolting smear about Cameron's wife and child.
LOL...
You heard it here first.
4) It's easy to do, and the deliberately byzantine tax code invites it.
"I wonder if Bernie ever banked that cheque."
LOL!
I'm not convinced that the number of seats that they win will be much different if they poll 15% nationally or 5% nationally.
If asked, the majority of people would say they'd like to keep as much of what they earn as possible.
Following a series of highly encouraging series of polling figures for Labour over the past 2 - 3 days, my "Bet of the Week" is for theTories to win FEWER than 284.5 seats on offer from bet365 at odds of 10/11 (1.91 decimal). Unless the Blues start to recover very soon they are starting to look like a busted flush.
As ever, DYOR.
I am not rich nor self-employed. I do pay all my tax and probably rather more - in percentage terms - than many people richer than me since I am in the PAYE class. But I feel that it's my money not the government's and if the government is going to take it off me they have an overriding duty to spend it sensibly and wisely, which they don't at present.
I fully accept that there are matters where it makes sense to make collective provision and that those who have more, relatively, should contribute more.
What I currently see is that those who have the most do not pay the most and so the burden is borne by (a) those in the middle - like me (though unlike some on here I did not - and do not - complain when child benefit was removed because I could understand why it was done and it seemed absurd to me to give money to those who don't really need it); and (b) those at the bottom who do not get the support and help that they ought to get because too much of the money which is raised and spent is wasted.
My priorities for my money are (1) my family; (2) the charities I support; and (3) then others. I do not consider those priorities to be evidence of greed. And I resent those who think that people who work hard and want to keep the fruits of their hard work are greedy.
Labour seems to think that I should feel grateful for being allowed to keep any of my money at all. I don't accept that premise. The state is (or should be) my servant - not my master.
(Edited): You also make the assumption (common on the Left) of confusing the state with society. They are two different things. And a person does not need to pay tax to be part of society. Otherwise you are saying that all the unemployed, housewives or those earning too little to pay tax are somehow not part of society. A curious view and not one I agree with.
"I do in terms of him being a serious drag on LAB but he knows how to target a weak spot i will give him that."
I think we've all confused dorkishness with uselessness. I only know one person who thought Ed was better than he was getting credit for being. But that person was the only person I know who actually had any direct knowledge of him. I've been very surprised at his political acumen over the last few weeks which has been in stark contrast to Dave's lack of it
As ever, DYOFR
Apart from the last line I agree with most of that.
You will hear who Paul Bloomfield is ad nauseam over these next few days. He's big news and with good reason. It seems our tax collectors are way beyond pathetic
Huzzah! A Lib Dem convert from the evils of PR to the virtues of FPTP!
Free the PB One!
http://order-order.com/2015/02/13/owen-jones-is-followed-by-the-one-percent/
So that'd be about 3000, or the every weekend SWP march attenders brigade.
Local government
Currently the 31 Council seats held in Rochford and Southend East are 7 Conservative (from Rochford), 10 Independent, 7 Labour, 5 Conservative and 2 UKIP (from Southend).
UKIP + BNP last time there was 10.8% !
Big no hoper Labour and Lib Dem votes to squeeze too.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21643151-watch-not-where-ukip-wins-seats-may-where-it-comes-second-beyond-beachheads
Matthew Goodwin saying they could potentially come second in 50-60 northern Labour seats. It is unfortunate that Tory voters do not vote tactically otherwise Labour could lose some seats in this election and potentially a lot in 2020. Heywood and Middleton being the perfect example. Several thousand Tory votes and all UKIP needed was 600 votes to take a Labour stronghold.
If I was a Tory strategist I'd want it to be as presidential a campaign as possible.
HMRC is pretty dysfunctional. A reminder of which politician decided it was a great idea to merge Customs and Excise with the Inland Revenue would be helpful.
It is shocking that so many supposedly intelligent people would have been aware of the signed report being auctioned off and not thought it was at the very least slightly distasteful.
http://hmrcisshite.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/hsbc-taxgate-email-unearthed.html#comment-form.
What on earth did Cherie Blair think she was doing when she signed it? She had nothing to do with the inquiry. Did no-one - even for a moment - think how Dr Kelly's widow and daughters might feel?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/13/argentina-president-formally-charged-alberto-nisman
On the LibDems, I take their 2010 vote and reduce that total by a quarter if their MP is standing again, a third if they are not.
On that basis, it is pretty much carnage.
And if there 12% who remainto be prised away because of Ed - in a tight election that is huge.
At any rate the "swing voter" proportion of this 12% will be alot less.
I thought Sean T was going to get it overturned?
What will concern the Con's is that their position doesn't appear to be improving at all.
EICIPM.
Go Ed!
And SeanT has a number of previous convictions himself, so is perhaps not the best possible barrister for the defendant.
Wonder who will be proved right either myself or JackW
I would love it if ....!!
Obviously a Conservative majority is out of question (but was always highly unlikely) but at this rate you struggle to see beyond Lab largest party or a tiny Labour majority.
But then what?