£12 million pounds well spent – politicalbetting.com

System · 3:00PM

£12 million pounds well spent – politicalbetting.com

Breaking News: Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, formerly known as Prince Andrew, was arrested in Britain on suspicion of misconduct in public office over his links to Jeffrey Epstein, the BBC said.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles · 3:00PM

First?

DougSeal · 3:01PM

TheScreamingEagles said:
First?

Insider posting. Should be a criminal offence.

DavidL · 3:04PM

Did he not get the £12m from his mum? Not sure how you make much of a story out of that.

In terms of containing the scandal, however, the spend seems to have been suboptimal.

TheScreamingEagles · 3:06PM

DavidL said:
Did he not get the £12m from his mum? Not sure how you make much of a story out of that.

In terms of containing the scandal, however, the spend seems to have been suboptimal.

Apparently the King also loaned him some of the money too.

Andrew was 'loaned millions by King Charles, late Queen and Prince Philip to pay Virginia Giuffre settlement'

https://www.gbnews.com/royal/andrew-mountbatten-windsor-king-charles-queen-elizabeth-ii-prince-philip-settlement

Battlebus · 3:06PM

Wasting money like that makes him a shoe-in for the head of the MOD.

Nigelb · 3:07PM

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
Did he not get the £12m from his mum? Not sure how you make much of a story out of that.

In terms of containing the scandal, however, the spend seems to have been suboptimal.
Apparently the King also loaned him some of the money too.

Andrew was 'loaned millions by King Charles, late Queen and Prince Philip to pay Virginia Giuffre settlement'

https://www.gbnews.com/royal/andrew-mountbatten-windsor-king-charles-queen-elizabeth-ii-prince-philip-settlement

They're unlikely to recover anything from Andrew.
I guess a gift might have been taxable ?

Battlebus · 3:08PM

Meanwhile I wonder who will be the first of the press pack to ask a question of Trump about the issue at his inaugural Bored of Peace.

LostPassword · 3:08PM

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
Did he not get the £12m from his mum? Not sure how you make much of a story out of that.

In terms of containing the scandal, however, the spend seems to have been suboptimal.
Apparently the King also loaned him some of the money too.

Andrew was 'loaned millions by King Charles, late Queen and Prince Philip to pay Virginia Giuffre settlement'

https://www.gbnews.com/royal/andrew-mountbatten-windsor-king-charles-queen-elizabeth-ii-prince-philip-settlement

Handing over £12m to one of the victims of Jeffrey Epstein is one of the better things to have happened as a result of this whole affair.

Nigelb · 3:11PM

All that effort redacting Trump's name from the files, rather than the victims..

CNN uncovered multiple unredacted videos inside DOJ Epstein files, including footage where a girl says she is just 15 years old.

These files sat in government custody for years.
https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/2024475432272244936

The original Epstein plea bargain, which included non-prosecution agreements with unnamed associates, must be one of the most corrupt in US legal history.
Some of those involved in that deal are now members of the most corrupt administration in US history.

isam · 3:13PM

Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

Nigelb · 3:14PM

LostPassword said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
Did he not get the £12m from his mum? Not sure how you make much of a story out of that.

In terms of containing the scandal, however, the spend seems to have been suboptimal.
Apparently the King also loaned him some of the money too.

Andrew was 'loaned millions by King Charles, late Queen and Prince Philip to pay Virginia Giuffre settlement'

https://www.gbnews.com/royal/andrew-mountbatten-windsor-king-charles-queen-elizabeth-ii-prince-philip-settlement
Handing over £12m to one of the victims of Jeffrey Epstein is one of the better things to have happened as a result of this whole affair.

It is - but the intention was to make the scandal go away.

I don't think you can give any credit at all to those involved in making the payment.

isam · 3:16PM

It did make me think of this classic Del Boy scene

Andrew Mountbatten this morning, mistakenly thinking he’d been sent an early surprise on his birthday.

https://x.com/craigyjones17/status/2024429607173112121?s=20

MarqueeMark · 3:16PM

TSE back on 1st March.

Will the monarchy last until his return?

Stark_Dawning · 3:17PM

Nigelb said:

LostPassword said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
Did he not get the £12m from his mum? Not sure how you make much of a story out of that.

In terms of containing the scandal, however, the spend seems to have been suboptimal.
Apparently the King also loaned him some of the money too.

Andrew was 'loaned millions by King Charles, late Queen and Prince Philip to pay Virginia Giuffre settlement'

https://www.gbnews.com/royal/andrew-mountbatten-windsor-king-charles-queen-elizabeth-ii-prince-philip-settlement
Handing over £12m to one of the victims of Jeffrey Epstein is one of the better things to have happened as a result of this whole affair.
It is - but the intention was to make the scandal go away.

I don't think you can give any credit at all to those involved in making the payment.

He did make the scandal go away. It was just that there were a load of further scandals in the offing.

MarqueeMark · 3:17PM

Nigelb said:

LostPassword said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
Did he not get the £12m from his mum? Not sure how you make much of a story out of that.

In terms of containing the scandal, however, the spend seems to have been suboptimal.
Apparently the King also loaned him some of the money too.

Andrew was 'loaned millions by King Charles, late Queen and Prince Philip to pay Virginia Giuffre settlement'

https://www.gbnews.com/royal/andrew-mountbatten-windsor-king-charles-queen-elizabeth-ii-prince-philip-settlement
Handing over £12m to one of the victims of Jeffrey Epstein is one of the better things to have happened as a result of this whole affair.
It is - but the intention was to make the scandal go away.

I don't think you can give any credit at all to those involved in making the payment.

The King could say the £12m was compensation for the trauma of her having slept with his brother.

DavidL · 3:18PM

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
Did he not get the £12m from his mum? Not sure how you make much of a story out of that.

In terms of containing the scandal, however, the spend seems to have been suboptimal.
Apparently the King also loaned him some of the money too.

Andrew was 'loaned millions by King Charles, late Queen and Prince Philip to pay Virginia Giuffre settlement'

https://www.gbnews.com/royal/andrew-mountbatten-windsor-king-charles-queen-elizabeth-ii-prince-philip-settlement

Think Charles denied that. But the finances of the Royal family are arcane and of little interest to sane people.

isam · 3:20PM

Prisoner cell block HRH.

https://x.com/crapolatombola/status/2024443043869282444?s=20

williamglenn · 3:21PM

MoonRabbit said:

williamglenn said:
https://x.com/JackieLeonard01/status/2024458424767906120
Smoking Gun city Arizona.

Blair is up to his eyebrows in Epstein Scandal. It all happened on his watch, involving his friends, and his big decisions. Why is he getting an easy ride?

Starmer has zero choice now. There must be a bigger enquiry to get to the bottom of all this Labour sleaze.

Ruthlessness in dealing with internal Labour opponents is probably Starmer's only remaining USP. It wouldn't get any bigger than throwing Blair under the bus.

tlg86 · 3:22PM

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

I guess there is the time element which makes 2/9 not so attractive. By the time we get closer to the election, the combined odds will either be a lot shorter or someone else will be in the mix in terms of polling.

eek · 3:23PM

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
Did he not get the £12m from his mum? Not sure how you make much of a story out of that.

In terms of containing the scandal, however, the spend seems to have been suboptimal.
Apparently the King also loaned him some of the money too.

Andrew was 'loaned millions by King Charles, late Queen and Prince Philip to pay Virginia Giuffre settlement'

https://www.gbnews.com/royal/andrew-mountbatten-windsor-king-charles-queen-elizabeth-ii-prince-philip-settlement
Think Charles denied that. But the finances of the Royal family are arcane and of little interest to sane people.

The joy about arcane is that we can continually say that Charles paid to shut the case down until the royal family opens up those arcane accounts and reveals the truth.

I wonder how much of a push it would be to argue Charle’s bribe (for silence) was abuse of Public Office (after all the Royal Family are currently in Public Office)

rcs1000 · 3:24PM

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.

DavidL · 3:25PM

eek said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
Did he not get the £12m from his mum? Not sure how you make much of a story out of that.

In terms of containing the scandal, however, the spend seems to have been suboptimal.
Apparently the King also loaned him some of the money too.

Andrew was 'loaned millions by King Charles, late Queen and Prince Philip to pay Virginia Giuffre settlement'

https://www.gbnews.com/royal/andrew-mountbatten-windsor-king-charles-queen-elizabeth-ii-prince-philip-settlement
Think Charles denied that. But the finances of the Royal family are arcane and of little interest to sane people.
The joy about arcane is that we can continually say that Charles paid to shut the case down until the royal family opens up those arcane accounts and reveals the truth.

I wonder how much of a push it would be to argue Charle’s bribe (for silence) was abuse of Public Office (after all the Royal Family are currently in Public Office)

Sorry @eek my observation remains valid.

eek · 3:27PM

DavidL said:

eek said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
Did he not get the £12m from his mum? Not sure how you make much of a story out of that.

In terms of containing the scandal, however, the spend seems to have been suboptimal.
Apparently the King also loaned him some of the money too.

Andrew was 'loaned millions by King Charles, late Queen and Prince Philip to pay Virginia Giuffre settlement'

https://www.gbnews.com/royal/andrew-mountbatten-windsor-king-charles-queen-elizabeth-ii-prince-philip-settlement
Think Charles denied that. But the finances of the Royal family are arcane and of little interest to sane people.
The joy about arcane is that we can continually say that Charles paid to shut the case down until the royal family opens up those arcane accounts and reveals the truth.

I wonder how much of a push it would be to argue Charle’s bribe (for silence) was abuse of Public Office (after all the Royal Family are currently in Public Office)

Sorry @eek my observation remains valid.

Yep but the fact Charles used money from arcane sources to try and protect Andrew is going to be used forever more by Republicans

wooliedyed · 3:28PM

Posted without my Nostradamus pants on

Trump has just been riffing on 'doing a deal' or 'going further' on Iran and 'maybe you'll find out over the next ten days'

Last time when he said '2 weeks' they bombed 48 hours later.

The military build up isnt there so they can do a deal

Oh, and apparently we have to 'sort out Lebanon'

wooliedyed · 3:28PM

Anyway happy GogMagog weekend everyone

noneoftheabove · 3:28PM

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.

Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.

AnneJGP · 3:29PM

AIUI, at the time the Epstein business was happening, people like the then Prince Andrew would have been operating under the rules of an Internationally Protected Person. Seems to me it's worth considering whether their behaviour would have been the same without the knowledge of that protection.

rcs1000 · 3:32PM

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.
Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.

Fair point. Yes, you probably should bet on Lab/Con/Reform, because a 25% chance of LibDem or Green or Repair or SNP or PC leading the seats market is too high.

Dumbosaurus · 3:37PM

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.
Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.

How big is your edge? Doing that on the regular will destroy it unless it's huuuuuuuge

noneoftheabove · 3:39PM

Dumbosaurus said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.
Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.
How big is your edge? Doing that on the regular will destroy it unless it's huuuuuuuge

You get 5% edge for free with Restore! Greens too short for sure too. I'd argue Conservatives way too long. Think my edge is in the 15-25% area.

isam · 3:41PM

noneoftheabove said:

Dumbosaurus said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.
Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.
How big is your edge? Doing that on the regular will destroy it unless it's huuuuuuuge
You get 5% edge for free with Restore! Greens too short for sure too. I'd argue Conservatives way too long. Think my edge is in the 15-25% area.

I just laid Rupert at 14.5 for £2 to be next PM, seems ludicrous

dixiedean · 3:42PM

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

Dumbosaurus said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.
Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.
How big is your edge? Doing that on the regular will destroy it unless it's huuuuuuuge
You get 5% edge for free with Restore! Greens too short for sure too. I'd argue Conservatives way too long. Think my edge is in the 15-25% area.
I just laid Rupert at 14.5 for £2 to be next PM, seems ludicrous

Lowe or the Bear?
Not sure which ought to be favourite in a head-to-head.

AnneJGP · 3:44PM

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

Dumbosaurus said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.
Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.
How big is your edge? Doing that on the regular will destroy it unless it's huuuuuuuge
You get 5% edge for free with Restore! Greens too short for sure too. I'd argue Conservatives way too long. Think my edge is in the 15-25% area.
I just laid Rupert at 14.5 for £2 to be next PM, seems ludicrous

Seems to me Restore might have a good chance of taking off, but from creation of party to governing party in - what - 3 years seems a bit of a stretch.

moonshine · 3:44PM

On the not unreasonable assumption that Epstein was a Russian agent, he’s succeeded beyond the grave with his plot to rip asunder the British monarchy. Now we see how much damage is still to be wrought on the British political establishment.

An increasing number of people I talk have become rather suspicious of the true intentions of the Labour Lazarus over the last three decades. Basic lust for prestige, power and money? Or as an ex communist that visited a ussr sponsored “world festival” in Cuba after oxbridge, following another agenda entirely…?

OldKingCole · 3:45PM

rcs1000 said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.
Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.
Fair point. Yes, you probably should bet on Lab/Con/Reform, because a 25% chance of LibDem or Green or Repair or SNP or PC leading the seats market is too high.

PC are only fighting 32 seats. So the chances of them being in a majority, or even really significant position are, surely, low.

kinabalu · 3:47PM

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

Dumbosaurus said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.
Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.
How big is your edge? Doing that on the regular will destroy it unless it's huuuuuuuge
You get 5% edge for free with Restore! Greens too short for sure too. I'd argue Conservatives way too long. Think my edge is in the 15-25% area.
I just laid Rupert at 14.5 for £2 to be next PM, seems ludicrous

It's great to start a laybook with something that is virtually certain to be ten times the price before too long. This fits the bill perfectly. I can only commend your discipline in restricting to the £2.

williamglenn · 3:47PM

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2024504743536611532

Trump on Rubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference:

"Marco, you really did yourself proud two days ago in Munich — in fact, so proud that I almost terminated his employ because they were saying, 'Why can't Trump do this?'"

wooliedyed · 3:48PM

Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council

kinabalu · 3:50PM

moonshine said:
On the not unreasonable assumption that Epstein was a Russian agent, he’s succeeded beyond the grave with his plot to rip asunder the British monarchy. Now we see how much damage is still to be wrought on the British political establishment.

An increasing number of people I talk have become rather suspicious of the true intentions of the Labour Lazarus over the last three decades. Basic lust for prestige, power and money? Or as an ex communist that visited a ussr sponsored “world festival” in Cuba after oxbridge, following another agenda entirely…?

Is that in the supermarket queue?

rcs1000 · 3:53PM

dixiedean said:

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

Dumbosaurus said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.
Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.
How big is your edge? Doing that on the regular will destroy it unless it's huuuuuuuge
You get 5% edge for free with Restore! Greens too short for sure too. I'd argue Conservatives way too long. Think my edge is in the 15-25% area.
I just laid Rupert at 14.5 for £2 to be next PM, seems ludicrous
Lowe or the Bear?
Not sure which ought to be favourite in a head-to-head.

That's all people called "Rupert".

Malmesbury · 3:57PM

kinabalu said:

moonshine said:
On the not unreasonable assumption that Epstein was a Russian agent, he’s succeeded beyond the grave with his plot to rip asunder the British monarchy. Now we see how much damage is still to be wrought on the British political establishment.

An increasing number of people I talk have become rather suspicious of the true intentions of the Labour Lazarus over the last three decades. Basic lust for prestige, power and money? Or as an ex communist that visited a ussr sponsored “world festival” in Cuba after oxbridge, following another agenda entirely…?
Is that in the supermarket queue?

Albanian Black Cab drivers?

MoonRabbit · 3:59PM

“UK blocking Trump from using RAF bases for strikes on IranThe disagreement over the use of British sites is behind the US president’s withdrawal of support for the Chagos Islands deal, The Times understands”

I’ve just had look round everywhere. Apart from The Times, no other news organisation is touching this. Is it actually true, or will The Times take it down any moment? How could The Times have got this scoop, this side of the pond?

It’s too risky for Starmer to believe this is actually true. Hard for me to believe he said no. Does anyone have any example of such a request turned down before? I think for Vietnam US never asked Labour government to use an RAF base at any point?

IF true, it is a very big moment in UK US special relationship I think. But also huge implications in UK domestic politics. If Kemi says she would have given a different answer, straight away a huge and explosive differential between Conservative and Labour. Because, if any US plane goes down, with US service lives lost, anywhere in the battle space, Trump will blame the British Labour government for their deaths, and so can Farage, Kemi and Priti.

DecrepiterJohnL · 4:02PM

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
Did he not get the £12m from his mum? Not sure how you make much of a story out of that.

In terms of containing the scandal, however, the spend seems to have been suboptimal.
Apparently the King also loaned him some of the money too.

Andrew was 'loaned millions by King Charles, late Queen and Prince Philip to pay Virginia Giuffre settlement'

https://www.gbnews.com/royal/andrew-mountbatten-windsor-king-charles-queen-elizabeth-ii-prince-philip-settlement
They're unlikely to recover anything from Andrew.
I guess a gift might have been taxable ?

Gifts aren't taxable in Britain.

TheScreamingEagles · 4:03PM

DougSeal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
First?
Insider posting. Should be a criminal offence.

You say insider dealing I say perfect example of the efficient market hypothesis.

MoonRabbit · 4:05PM

kinabalu said:

moonshine said:
On the not unreasonable assumption that Epstein was a Russian agent, he’s succeeded beyond the grave with his plot to rip asunder the British monarchy. Now we see how much damage is still to be wrought on the British political establishment.

An increasing number of people I talk have become rather suspicious of the true intentions of the Labour Lazarus over the last three decades. Basic lust for prestige, power and money? Or as an ex communist that visited a ussr sponsored “world festival” in Cuba after oxbridge, following another agenda entirely…?
Is that in the supermarket queue?

We can be 100% sure, somebody was a UK security services asset in the Epstein construct, or else the heads of secret services need sacking and their pensions withdrawn.

Running a book on who it was, which name do you have shortest price?

Stark_Dawning · 4:05PM

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council

Wow. I thought Restore were merely a fringe outfit and completely non-serious. Why are they starting to cause problems for Reform? Does Nigel need to take action here? How likely that a trickle becomes a flood?

Mexicanpete · 4:05PM

Andy_JS said:
Allister Heath in the Telegraph.

"Almost every important decision of the past 36 years, by Labour, Tories and coalition Lib Dems alike – with the exception of some of John Major’s domestic reforms, the launch of auto-enrolled pensions, the legalisation of gay marriage, Michael Gove’s school reforms and Brexit – has been a disaster or backfired in catastrophic ways. Most will need to be reversed if Britain is to be saved."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2026/02/18/the-plot-to-topple-britain-next-right-wing-government/

It's Allister Heath, King of the unhinged headline, for goodness sake!

nico67 · 4:06PM

MoonRabbit said:
“UK blocking Trump from using RAF bases for strikes on IranThe disagreement over the use of British sites is behind the US president’s withdrawal of support for the Chagos Islands deal, The Times understands”

I’ve just had look round everywhere. Apart from The Times, no other news organisation is touching this. Is it actually true, or will The Times take it down any moment? How could The Times have got this scoop, this side of the pond?

It’s too risky for Starmer to believe this is actually true. Hard for me to believe he said no. Does anyone have any example of such a request turned down before? I think for Vietnam US never asked Labour government to use an RAF base at any point?

IF true, it is a very big moment in UK US special relationship I think. But also huge implications in UK domestic politics. If Kemi says she would have given a different answer, straight away a huge and explosive differential between Conservative and Labour. Because, if any US plane goes down, with US service lives lost, anywhere in the battle space, Trump will blame the British Labour government for their deaths, and so can Farage, Kemi and Priti.

Refusing permission in the current climate would be a vote winner for Starmer !

williamglenn · 4:07PM

MoonRabbit said:

kinabalu said:

moonshine said:
On the not unreasonable assumption that Epstein was a Russian agent, he’s succeeded beyond the grave with his plot to rip asunder the British monarchy. Now we see how much damage is still to be wrought on the British political establishment.

An increasing number of people I talk have become rather suspicious of the true intentions of the Labour Lazarus over the last three decades. Basic lust for prestige, power and money? Or as an ex communist that visited a ussr sponsored “world festival” in Cuba after oxbridge, following another agenda entirely…?
Is that in the supermarket queue?
We can be 100% sure, somebody was a UK security services asset in the Epstein construct, or else the heads of secret services need sacking and their pensions withdrawn.

Running a book on who it was, which name do you have shortest price?

Judi Dench has questions to answer.

TheScreamingEagles · 4:07PM

Well.

Pakistan cricketers are not being considered by Indian-owned sides for next month's Hundred auction, sources have told BBC Sport.

Players from Pakistan have not featured in the Indian Premier League (IPL) since 2009 because of diplomatic tensions between the two countries.

Four of The Hundred's eight franchises - Manchester Super Giants, MI London, Southern Brave and Sunrisers Leeds - are now at least part-owned by companies that control IPL teams.

In messages seen by the BBC, a senior official from the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) indicated to an agent that interest in his Pakistan players would be limited to sides not linked to the IPL.

Another agent described the situation as "an unwritten rule" across T20 leagues with Indian investment.

ECB chief executive Richard Gould said last year he expected "players from all nations to be selected for all teams" in The Hundred and warned "clear anti-discrimination policies" were in place.

None of the four teams or ownership groups in question responded to requests for comment.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cx2gnv5w091o

DecrepiterJohnL · 4:07PM

moonshine said:
On the not unreasonable assumption that Epstein was a Russian agent, he’s succeeded beyond the grave with his plot to rip asunder the British monarchy. Now we see how much damage is still to be wrought on the British political establishment.

An increasing number of people I talk have become rather suspicious of the true intentions of the Labour Lazarus over the last three decades. Basic lust for prestige, power and money? Or as an ex communist that visited a ussr sponsored “world festival” in Cuba after oxbridge, following another agenda entirely…?

Ever noticed that everyone involved in Brexit could have been a Russian agent? We know the KGB tried to recruit David Cameron. Dominic Cummings spent a couple of years there. Boris put the son of a KGB man into the House of Lords.

Next up, tin foil theories about Mossad and the CIA, both of which are also in the frame.

MarqueeMark · 4:12PM

williamglenn said:

MoonRabbit said:

kinabalu said:

moonshine said:
On the not unreasonable assumption that Epstein was a Russian agent, he’s succeeded beyond the grave with his plot to rip asunder the British monarchy. Now we see how much damage is still to be wrought on the British political establishment.

An increasing number of people I talk have become rather suspicious of the true intentions of the Labour Lazarus over the last three decades. Basic lust for prestige, power and money? Or as an ex communist that visited a ussr sponsored “world festival” in Cuba after oxbridge, following another agenda entirely…?
Is that in the supermarket queue?
We can be 100% sure, somebody was a UK security services asset in the Epstein construct, or else the heads of secret services need sacking and their pensions withdrawn.

Running a book on who it was, which name do you have shortest price?
Judi Dench has questions to answer.

Alan Titchmarsh.

Nobody can be that squeaky clean. I reckon he knows where the bodies are buried. Under which herbaceous border.

kinabalu · 4:12PM

wooliedyed said:
Posted without my Nostradamus pants on

Trump has just been riffing on 'doing a deal' or 'going further' on Iran and 'maybe you'll find out over the next ten days'

Last time when he said '2 weeks' they bombed 48 hours later.

The military build up isnt there so they can do a deal

Oh, and apparently we have to 'sort out Lebanon'

When the irresistible urge to play the big man with his expensive military toys meets the immovable object of his campaign promise to stop getting involved in Middle East wars there's only one winner - and it isn't the immovable object.

MattW · 4:12PM

Stark_Dawning said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
Wow. I thought Restore were merely a fringe outfit and completely non-serious. Why are they starting to cause problems for Reform? Does Nigel need to take action here? How likely that a trickle becomes a flood?

They are a threat to Farage's more extreme types, and could peel some of them off.

Quite a lot have been very grumpy about him letting in Muslims and not being solid enough on "remigration". Plus there are any number who have extensive intercourse in the past with Yaxley-Lennon type groups. Farage will be showing some Right ankle - even more than he has so far.

@HYIFD's area could have a bit of aggro, given the huge pile of "Farage is a wimp" types who were on the Epping demonstrations. Kent has already seen similar moves, as we know.

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:12PM

TheScreamingEagles said:
Well.

Pakistan cricketers are not being considered by Indian-owned sides for next month's Hundred auction, sources have told BBC Sport.

Players from Pakistan have not featured in the Indian Premier League (IPL) since 2009 because of diplomatic tensions between the two countries.

Four of The Hundred's eight franchises - Manchester Super Giants, MI London, Southern Brave and Sunrisers Leeds - are now at least part-owned by companies that control IPL teams.

In messages seen by the BBC, a senior official from the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) indicated to an agent that interest in his Pakistan players would be limited to sides not linked to the IPL.

Another agent described the situation as "an unwritten rule" across T20 leagues with Indian investment.

ECB chief executive Richard Gould said last year he expected "players from all nations to be selected for all teams" in The Hundred and warned "clear anti-discrimination policies" were in place.

None of the four teams or ownership groups in question responded to requests for comment.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cx2gnv5w091o

We need to wean the Induans and Palistanis off Cricket and teach them proper sports like football.

wooliedyed · 4:12PM

Stark_Dawning said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
Wow. I thought Restore were merely a fringe outfit and completely non-serious. Why are they starting to cause problems for Reform? Does Nigel need to take action here? How likely that a trickle becomes a flood?

13 so far. Announcement every day since launch.
I think Reform do have a (limited so far) problem
Some chatter that this may cost Reform control of one or more of their county councils.......

MarqueeMark · 4:13PM

rcs1000 said:

dixiedean said:

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

Dumbosaurus said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.
Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.
How big is your edge? Doing that on the regular will destroy it unless it's huuuuuuuge
You get 5% edge for free with Restore! Greens too short for sure too. I'd argue Conservatives way too long. Think my edge is in the 15-25% area.
I just laid Rupert at 14.5 for £2 to be next PM, seems ludicrous
Lowe or the Bear?
Not sure which ought to be favourite in a head-to-head.
That's all people called "Rupert".

My money would be on Murdoch.

AugustusCarp2 · 4:13PM

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council

At an amateurish level I try to keep track of councillor defections. What started as a simple train-spotterish hobby has now become rather complicated. So far this year there have been defections to UKIP, Advance UK (Ben Habib's lot) and now Restore Britain. That's an awful lot of political mparties on the right who are not the Conservative party. Is there a market for a merger between Advance and Restore?

turbotubbs · 4:14PM

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Well.

Pakistan cricketers are not being considered by Indian-owned sides for next month's Hundred auction, sources have told BBC Sport.

Players from Pakistan have not featured in the Indian Premier League (IPL) since 2009 because of diplomatic tensions between the two countries.

Four of The Hundred's eight franchises - Manchester Super Giants, MI London, Southern Brave and Sunrisers Leeds - are now at least part-owned by companies that control IPL teams.

In messages seen by the BBC, a senior official from the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) indicated to an agent that interest in his Pakistan players would be limited to sides not linked to the IPL.

Another agent described the situation as "an unwritten rule" across T20 leagues with Indian investment.

ECB chief executive Richard Gould said last year he expected "players from all nations to be selected for all teams" in The Hundred and warned "clear anti-discrimination policies" were in place.

None of the four teams or ownership groups in question responded to requests for comment.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cx2gnv5w091o
We need to wean the Induans and Palistanis off Cricket and teach them proper sports like football.

Rugby - give the Welsh someone they might have a chance against.*

*Sorry, Welsh PBers. And yes I know Scotland thumped England last weekend

wooliedyed · 4:15PM

AugustusCarp2 said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
At an amateurish level I try to keep track of councillor defections. What started as a simple train-spotterish hobby has now become rather complicated. So far this year there have been defections to UKIP, Advance UK (Ben Habib's lot) and now Restore Britain. That's an awful lot of political mparties on the right who are not the Conservative party. Is there a market for a merger between Advance and Restore?

Habib has proposed it, Rupert is not apparently that keen but happy to work with them

Ukip and their 1 councillor are an irrelevance though

turbotubbs · 4:15PM

wooliedyed said:

Stark_Dawning said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
Wow. I thought Restore were merely a fringe outfit and completely non-serious. Why are they starting to cause problems for Reform? Does Nigel need to take action here? How likely that a trickle becomes a flood?
13 so far. Announcement every day since launch.
I think Reform do have a (limited so far) problem
Some chatter that this may cost Reform control of one or more of their county councils.......

All I can think of is 'The Peoples Front front of Judea' right now.

DecrepiterJohnL · 4:16PM

Stark_Dawning said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
Wow. I thought Restore were merely a fringe outfit and completely non-serious. Why are they starting to cause problems for Reform? Does Nigel need to take action here? How likely that a trickle becomes a flood?

I guess someone could ask the defectors but perhaps it is what we mentioned the other day:-

The Farage paradox: He has sold Reform as the cure for 14 years of Tory decline, yet spends his energy trying to recruit the very Conservatives he blames for the mess.

MattW · 4:17PM

FPT:

Brixian59 said:

LostPassword said:

wooliedyed said:
Im not going to post the defection rumours i am reading on X as I suspect they may be horse doings i dont want to be assiciated with.
However, if you like a bit of gossip, DYOR.
If they happened to be true, i wouldn't stop laughing for a week
Twitter does seem to be a cesspit of fake defection announcements. I guess they are good at getting people's attention.

I can see why the particular rumour I think you are referring to would make you laugh, though.
Got to be 30p Lee to Restore

I don't see that (watch me be proved wrong). Anderson has had a low paying career, and is currently pulling 200k a year to build his pension pot. He needs several more years of GBN.

Half of that is GBNews dependent, and if he self-defenestrated from Reform, that would be at risk. I do not see Sir Paul Marshall deciding easily to go with pivoting GBN to Restore Britain.

1 - GBN is reliant on Farage.
2 - Marshall is a UK style National Conservative, not a Lowe type. IMO if we want to see what Marshall could do, the model to look at Danny Kruger. I'd say that Marshall would pivot to an even-more-crusty Conservative Party before he went to Restore Britain.

Battlebus · 4:19PM

AugustusCarp2 said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
At an amateurish level I try to keep track of councillor defections. What started as a simple train-spotterish hobby has now become rather complicated. So far this year there have been defections to UKIP, Advance UK (Ben Habib's lot) and now Restore Britain. That's an awful lot of political mparties on the right who are not the Conservative party. Is there a market for a merger between Advance and Restore?

Does it match to this? No sign of the additional Warwickshire Two yet.

https://opencouncildata.co.uk/changes.php?y=2025

Edit: Suggests there have been 1217 musical chairs so far 2025-2026

OldKingCole · 4:20PM

turbotubbs said:

wooliedyed said:

Stark_Dawning said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
Wow. I thought Restore were merely a fringe outfit and completely non-serious. Why are they starting to cause problems for Reform? Does Nigel need to take action here? How likely that a trickle becomes a flood?
13 so far. Announcement every day since launch.
I think Reform do have a (limited so far) problem
Some chatter that this may cost Reform control of one or more of their county councils.......
All I can think of is 'The Peoples Front front of Judea' right now.

What about the Judean Popular Front?

wooliedyed · 4:20PM

MattW said:
FPT:
Brixian59 said:

LostPassword said:

wooliedyed said:
Im not going to post the defection rumours i am reading on X as I suspect they may be horse doings i dont want to be assiciated with.
However, if you like a bit of gossip, DYOR.
If they happened to be true, i wouldn't stop laughing for a week
Twitter does seem to be a cesspit of fake defection announcements. I guess they are good at getting people's attention.

I can see why the particular rumour I think you are referring to would make you laugh, though.
Got to be 30p Lee to Restore
I don't see that (watch me be proved wrong). Anderson has had a low paying career, and is currently pulling 200k a year to build his pension pot. He needs several more years of GBN.

Half of that is GBNews dependent, and if he self-defenestrated from Reform, that would be at risk. I do not see Sir Paul Marshall deciding easily to go with pivoting GBN to Restore Britain.

1 - GBN is reliant on Farage.
2 - Marshall is a UK style National Conservative, not a Lowe type.

The rumour on twitter flying about fwiw is Pochin to Restore
I think its very very unlikely but would be a massive kick in the nuts for Farage

isam · 4:21PM

kinabalu said:

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

Dumbosaurus said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.
Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.
How big is your edge? Doing that on the regular will destroy it unless it's huuuuuuuge
You get 5% edge for free with Restore! Greens too short for sure too. I'd argue Conservatives way too long. Think my edge is in the 15-25% area.
I just laid Rupert at 14.5 for £2 to be next PM, seems ludicrous
It's great to start a laybook with something that is virtually certain to be ten times the price before too long. This fits the bill perfectly. I can only commend your discipline in restricting to the £2.

Cash flow innit

He was the first lay in the book... about six months ago at 25!

Stuartinromford · 4:22PM

MoonRabbit said:

kinabalu said:

moonshine said:
On the not unreasonable assumption that Epstein was a Russian agent, he’s succeeded beyond the grave with his plot to rip asunder the British monarchy. Now we see how much damage is still to be wrought on the British political establishment.

An increasing number of people I talk have become rather suspicious of the true intentions of the Labour Lazarus over the last three decades. Basic lust for prestige, power and money? Or as an ex communist that visited a ussr sponsored “world festival” in Cuba after oxbridge, following another agenda entirely…?
Is that in the supermarket queue?
We can be 100% sure, somebody was a UK security services asset in the Epstein construct, or else the heads of secret services need sacking and their pensions withdrawn.

Running a book on who it was, which name do you have shortest price?

Though if that were the case, whoever let the story ooze out this far also needs sacking. One way or another, our secret services don't seem to have done a good job.

Though having either Mandy or Andy or both having been blackmailed into doing good (but dirty so deniable) work for the establishment, sort of like Danny Wilde and Lord Brett Sinclair in The Persuaders!, would be an amusing end to this fiasco.

Dum-dum-dum-dah-dah-dah-dah...

Daveyboy1961 · 4:23PM

dixiedean said:

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

Dumbosaurus said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.
Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.
How big is your edge? Doing that on the regular will destroy it unless it's huuuuuuuge
You get 5% edge for free with Restore! Greens too short for sure too. I'd argue Conservatives way too long. Think my edge is in the 15-25% area.
I just laid Rupert at 14.5 for £2 to be next PM, seems ludicrous
Lowe or the Bear?
Not sure which ought to be favourite in a head-to-head.

What's Rupert's middle name?

The

Ratters · 4:24PM

turbotubbs said:

wooliedyed said:

Stark_Dawning said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
Wow. I thought Restore were merely a fringe outfit and completely non-serious. Why are they starting to cause problems for Reform? Does Nigel need to take action here? How likely that a trickle becomes a flood?
13 so far. Announcement every day since launch.
I think Reform do have a (limited so far) problem
Some chatter that this may cost Reform control of one or more of their county councils.......
All I can think of is 'The Peoples Front front of Judea' right now.

Reform UK vs
Restore Britain vs
Recover England vs
Resuscitate Essex vs
Remember Basildon...

wooliedyed · 4:25PM

Reforms 18 year old leader of Warwickshire CC tweeted good riddance to the 2 defectors then swiftly deleted it. Lol.

#fallingapartpretendcabinetparty

eek · 4:25PM

wooliedyed said:

MattW said:
FPT:
Brixian59 said:

LostPassword said:

wooliedyed said:
Im not going to post the defection rumours i am reading on X as I suspect they may be horse doings i dont want to be assiciated with.
However, if you like a bit of gossip, DYOR.
If they happened to be true, i wouldn't stop laughing for a week
Twitter does seem to be a cesspit of fake defection announcements. I guess they are good at getting people's attention.

I can see why the particular rumour I think you are referring to would make you laugh, though.
Got to be 30p Lee to Restore
I don't see that (watch me be proved wrong). Anderson has had a low paying career, and is currently pulling 200k a year to build his pension pot. He needs several more years of GBN.

Half of that is GBNews dependent, and if he self-defenestrated from Reform, that would be at risk. I do not see Sir Paul Marshall deciding easily to go with pivoting GBN to Restore Britain.

1 - GBN is reliant on Farage.
2 - Marshall is a UK style National Conservative, not a Lowe type.
The rumour on twitter flying about fwiw is Pochin to Restore
I think its very very unlikely but would be a massive kick in the nuts for Farage

Why is it unlikely - Farage this week gave a number of people "Shadow" cabinet posts and Sarah Pochin was left out...

MattW · 4:25PM

wooliedyed said:

MattW said:
FPT:
Brixian59 said:

LostPassword said:

wooliedyed said:
Im not going to post the defection rumours i am reading on X as I suspect they may be horse doings i dont want to be assiciated with.
However, if you like a bit of gossip, DYOR.
If they happened to be true, i wouldn't stop laughing for a week
Twitter does seem to be a cesspit of fake defection announcements. I guess they are good at getting people's attention.

I can see why the particular rumour I think you are referring to would make you laugh, though.
Got to be 30p Lee to Restore
I don't see that (watch me be proved wrong). Anderson has had a low paying career, and is currently pulling 200k a year to build his pension pot. He needs several more years of GBN.

Half of that is GBNews dependent, and if he self-defenestrated from Reform, that would be at risk. I do not see Sir Paul Marshall deciding easily to go with pivoting GBN to Restore Britain.

1 - GBN is reliant on Farage.
2 - Marshall is a UK style National Conservative, not a Lowe type.
The rumour on twitter flying about fwiw is Pochin to Restore
I think its very very unlikely but would be a massive kick in the nuts for Farage

Pochin would be IMO more possible, and she is in the North-West, so a decent attention-getter before the Byelection. She has also created a number of problems in her constituency to my eye - someone up there may know better.

AugustusCarp2 · 4:25PM

Battlebus said:

AugustusCarp2 said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
At an amateurish level I try to keep track of councillor defections. What started as a simple train-spotterish hobby has now become rather complicated. So far this year there have been defections to UKIP, Advance UK (Ben Habib's lot) and now Restore Britain. That's an awful lot of political mparties on the right who are not the Conservative party. Is there a market for a merger between Advance and Restore?
Does it match to this? No sign of the additional Warwickshire Two yet.

https://opencouncildata.co.uk/changes.php?y=2025

Edit: Suggests there have been 1217 musical chairs so far 2025-2026

I make it 919 - but I am 1) cautious, and 2) not always sure of my data.

JohnLilburne · 4:25PM

turbotubbs said:

wooliedyed said:

Stark_Dawning said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
Wow. I thought Restore were merely a fringe outfit and completely non-serious. Why are they starting to cause problems for Reform? Does Nigel need to take action here? How likely that a trickle becomes a flood?
13 so far. Announcement every day since launch.
I think Reform do have a (limited so far) problem
Some chatter that this may cost Reform control of one or more of their county councils.......
All I can think of is 'The Peoples Front front of Judea' right now.

They're not listed on the Open Council Data site yet, presumably because neither Restore nor Great Yarmouth First appear to have had their registrations confirmed by the EC. I wonder how long it usually takes.

Reform have lost 4 to independant and one to the Conservatives, and gained one Conservative, since Monday, so this is in the context of a lot of churn. And I think most of the 13 had already left Reform (or been kicked out) https://opencouncildata.co.uk/changes.php?y=2025

wooliedyed · 4:26PM

Battlebus said:

AugustusCarp2 said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
At an amateurish level I try to keep track of councillor defections. What started as a simple train-spotterish hobby has now become rather complicated. So far this year there have been defections to UKIP, Advance UK (Ben Habib's lot) and now Restore Britain. That's an awful lot of political mparties on the right who are not the Conservative party. Is there a market for a merger between Advance and Restore?
Does it match to this? No sign of the additional Warwickshire Two yet.

https://opencouncildata.co.uk/changes.php?y=2025

Edit: Suggests there have been 1217 musical chairs so far 2025-2026

https://x.com/i/status/2024506493026865345

isam · 4:26PM

TheScreamingEagles said:
Well.

Pakistan cricketers are not being considered by Indian-owned sides for next month's Hundred auction, sources have told BBC Sport.

Players from Pakistan have not featured in the Indian Premier League (IPL) since 2009 because of diplomatic tensions between the two countries.

Four of The Hundred's eight franchises - Manchester Super Giants, MI London, Southern Brave and Sunrisers Leeds - are now at least part-owned by companies that control IPL teams.

In messages seen by the BBC, a senior official from the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) indicated to an agent that interest in his Pakistan players would be limited to sides not linked to the IPL.

Another agent described the situation as "an unwritten rule" across T20 leagues with Indian investment.

ECB chief executive Richard Gould said last year he expected "players from all nations to be selected for all teams" in The Hundred and warned "clear anti-discrimination policies" were in place.

None of the four teams or ownership groups in question responded to requests for comment.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cx2gnv5w091o

I heard Nasser Husain talking about this on the Sky Sports Cricket pod. He was saying how disgraceful it was that Pakistani players weren't allowed to play for Indian franchises, and that he hoped that wouldn't be the case in the Hundred now that Indian Consortiums have bought some sides. The rules quoted, that no players were banned from playing for any team, didn't seem convincing to me.

MattW · 4:26PM

isam said:

kinabalu said:

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

Dumbosaurus said:

noneoftheabove said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:
Most Seats Next GE on Betfair Exchange

Labour 15/8
Reform 2/1
Conservatives 13/2
Green 10/1
Restore 18/1
Lib Dem 40/1

200/1 Bar

Incredible prices

2/9 Lab, Reform or Conservatives cant be the worst bet in the world can it? I just can't see the Greens or Restore being anywhere close

The issue is that -unless the prices move and you can trade earlier- you're locking your money up for a minimum of two years, and probably more like three. So that 25% return becomes 8% per year, less Befair fees.

So, yes, probably a value bet. But there are places where you can recycling your capital more quickly.
Its a consistently pretty liquid market - at any point you can quickly rebalance your book for a few % or gradually rebalance for a couple of %. So this is overblown as a reason not to get involved.
How big is your edge? Doing that on the regular will destroy it unless it's huuuuuuuge
You get 5% edge for free with Restore! Greens too short for sure too. I'd argue Conservatives way too long. Think my edge is in the 15-25% area.
I just laid Rupert at 14.5 for £2 to be next PM, seems ludicrous
It's great to start a laybook with something that is virtually certain to be ten times the price before too long. This fits the bill perfectly. I can only commend your discipline in restricting to the £2.
He was the first lay in the book... about six months ago at 25!

How does that work? At 25 there's not a lot of margin even if it goes out to 100 or 200.

kinabalu · 4:27PM

Stark_Dawning said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
Wow. I thought Restore were merely a fringe outfit and completely non-serious. Why are they starting to cause problems for Reform? Does Nigel need to take action here? How likely that a trickle becomes a flood?

If most of the racists in the country decamp to Restore that could be a genuine problem for Reform. They probably need them to get over the line. It's also a problem for Reform if in order to stop that happening NF has to become more overtly racist himself - since this will drive away a chunk of the 'they're all shit, let's roll the dice with Nigel' vote. And of course he is also trying to attract bog standard disillusioned tories. Interesting to see how this all develops. I know how I'd like it to develop.

williamglenn · 4:27PM

wooliedyed said:

MattW said:
FPT:
Brixian59 said:

LostPassword said:

wooliedyed said:
Im not going to post the defection rumours i am reading on X as I suspect they may be horse doings i dont want to be assiciated with.
However, if you like a bit of gossip, DYOR.
If they happened to be true, i wouldn't stop laughing for a week
Twitter does seem to be a cesspit of fake defection announcements. I guess they are good at getting people's attention.

I can see why the particular rumour I think you are referring to would make you laugh, though.
Got to be 30p Lee to Restore
I don't see that (watch me be proved wrong). Anderson has had a low paying career, and is currently pulling 200k a year to build his pension pot. He needs several more years of GBN.

Half of that is GBNews dependent, and if he self-defenestrated from Reform, that would be at risk. I do not see Sir Paul Marshall deciding easily to go with pivoting GBN to Restore Britain.

1 - GBN is reliant on Farage.
2 - Marshall is a UK style National Conservative, not a Lowe type.
The rumour on twitter flying about fwiw is Pochin to Restore
I think its very very unlikely but would be a massive kick in the nuts for Farage

Farage falling out with someone can never be described as unlikely.

Maybe Jenrick to Restore before the next election would be a good bet.

Cicero · 4:27PM

OldKingCole said:

turbotubbs said:

wooliedyed said:

Stark_Dawning said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
Wow. I thought Restore were merely a fringe outfit and completely non-serious. Why are they starting to cause problems for Reform? Does Nigel need to take action here? How likely that a trickle becomes a flood?
13 so far. Announcement every day since launch.
I think Reform do have a (limited so far) problem
Some chatter that this may cost Reform control of one or more of their county councils.......
All I can think of is 'The Peoples Front front of Judea' right now.
What about the Judean Popular Front?

Popular People's Front

Stuartinromford · 4:29PM

wooliedyed said:

Battlebus said:

AugustusCarp2 said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
At an amateurish level I try to keep track of councillor defections. What started as a simple train-spotterish hobby has now become rather complicated. So far this year there have been defections to UKIP, Advance UK (Ben Habib's lot) and now Restore Britain. That's an awful lot of political mparties on the right who are not the Conservative party. Is there a market for a merger between Advance and Restore?
Does it match to this? No sign of the additional Warwickshire Two yet.

https://opencouncildata.co.uk/changes.php?y=2025

Edit: Suggests there have been 1217 musical chairs so far 2025-2026
https://x.com/i/status/2024506493026865345

What a fantastic moustache.

Big_G_NorthWales · 4:29PM

Interesting

https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/reform-uk-suspends-by-election-campaign-activist-over-antisemitic-and-misogynistic-posts/

JohnLilburne · 4:30PM

Battlebus said:

AugustusCarp2 said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
At an amateurish level I try to keep track of councillor defections. What started as a simple train-spotterish hobby has now become rather complicated. So far this year there have been defections to UKIP, Advance UK (Ben Habib's lot) and now Restore Britain. That's an awful lot of political mparties on the right who are not the Conservative party. Is there a market for a merger between Advance and Restore?
Does it match to this? No sign of the additional Warwickshire Two yet.

https://opencouncildata.co.uk/changes.php?y=2025

No Restore councillors are listed yer, probably because it is not yet a political party. The Warwickshire 2 will probably be listed as Reform > independent

eek · 4:31PM

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Well.

Pakistan cricketers are not being considered by Indian-owned sides for next month's Hundred auction, sources have told BBC Sport.

Players from Pakistan have not featured in the Indian Premier League (IPL) since 2009 because of diplomatic tensions between the two countries.

Four of The Hundred's eight franchises - Manchester Super Giants, MI London, Southern Brave and Sunrisers Leeds - are now at least part-owned by companies that control IPL teams.

In messages seen by the BBC, a senior official from the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) indicated to an agent that interest in his Pakistan players would be limited to sides not linked to the IPL.

Another agent described the situation as "an unwritten rule" across T20 leagues with Indian investment.

ECB chief executive Richard Gould said last year he expected "players from all nations to be selected for all teams" in The Hundred and warned "clear anti-discrimination policies" were in place.

None of the four teams or ownership groups in question responded to requests for comment.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cx2gnv5w091o
I heard Nasser Husain talking about this on the Sky Sports Cricket pod. He was saying how disgraceful it was that Pakistani players weren't allowed to play for Indian franchises, and that he hoped that wouldn't be the case in the Hundred now that Indian Consortiums have bought some sides. The rules quoted, that no players were banned from playing for any team, didn't seem convincing to me.

Unless the rules require teams to employ Pakistan cricketers you can simply decide not to employ them...

MattW · 4:32PM

Battlebus said:

AugustusCarp2 said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
At an amateurish level I try to keep track of councillor defections. What started as a simple train-spotterish hobby has now become rather complicated. So far this year there have been defections to UKIP, Advance UK (Ben Habib's lot) and now Restore Britain. That's an awful lot of political mparties on the right who are not the Conservative party. Is there a market for a merger between Advance and Restore?
Does it match to this? No sign of the additional Warwickshire Two yet.

https://opencouncildata.co.uk/changes.php?y=2025

Edit: Suggests there have been 1217 musical chairs so far 2025-2026

One of the Warwickshire Two has a magnificent Manuel moustache.

https://mg-pc.uk/councillor/justin-kerridge

Dopermean · 4:33PM

TheScreamingEagles said:
Well.

Pakistan cricketers are not being considered by Indian-owned sides for next month's Hundred auction, sources have told BBC Sport.

Players from Pakistan have not featured in the Indian Premier League (IPL) since 2009 because of diplomatic tensions between the two countries.

Four of The Hundred's eight franchises - Manchester Super Giants, MI London, Southern Brave and Sunrisers Leeds - are now at least part-owned by companies that control IPL teams.

In messages seen by the BBC, a senior official from the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) indicated to an agent that interest in his Pakistan players would be limited to sides not linked to the IPL.

Another agent described the situation as "an unwritten rule" across T20 leagues with Indian investment.

ECB chief executive Richard Gould said last year he expected "players from all nations to be selected for all teams" in The Hundred and warned "clear anti-discrimination policies" were in place.

None of the four teams or ownership groups in question responded to requests for comment.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cx2gnv5w091o

If you superglued a tenner to the road outside Lords, all the members of the ECB would be run over

There's an online form for this... https://www.ecb.co.uk/about/edi/report-discrimination

kinabalu · 4:33PM

MoonRabbit said:

kinabalu said:

moonshine said:
On the not unreasonable assumption that Epstein was a Russian agent, he’s succeeded beyond the grave with his plot to rip asunder the British monarchy. Now we see how much damage is still to be wrought on the British political establishment.

An increasing number of people I talk have become rather suspicious of the true intentions of the Labour Lazarus over the last three decades. Basic lust for prestige, power and money? Or as an ex communist that visited a ussr sponsored “world festival” in Cuba after oxbridge, following another agenda entirely…?
Is that in the supermarket queue?
We can be 100% sure, somebody was a UK security services asset in the Epstein construct, or else the heads of secret services need sacking and their pensions withdrawn.

Running a book on who it was, which name do you have shortest price?

I don't know. Which is disappointing since I've just binge-watched the whole Le Carre spy trilogy on iplayer. Over 12 hours of it - you'd have thought something would have rubbed off.

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:33PM

williamglenn said:

wooliedyed said:

MattW said:
FPT:
Brixian59 said:

LostPassword said:

wooliedyed said:
Im not going to post the defection rumours i am reading on X as I suspect they may be horse doings i dont want to be assiciated with.
However, if you like a bit of gossip, DYOR.
If they happened to be true, i wouldn't stop laughing for a week
Twitter does seem to be a cesspit of fake defection announcements. I guess they are good at getting people's attention.

I can see why the particular rumour I think you are referring to would make you laugh, though.
Got to be 30p Lee to Restore
I don't see that (watch me be proved wrong). Anderson has had a low paying career, and is currently pulling 200k a year to build his pension pot. He needs several more years of GBN.

Half of that is GBNews dependent, and if he self-defenestrated from Reform, that would be at risk. I do not see Sir Paul Marshall deciding easily to go with pivoting GBN to Restore Britain.

1 - GBN is reliant on Farage.
2 - Marshall is a UK style National Conservative, not a Lowe type.
The rumour on twitter flying about fwiw is Pochin to Restore
I think its very very unlikely but would be a massive kick in the nuts for Farage
Farage falling out with someone can never be described as unlikely.

Maybe Jenrick to Restore before the next election would be a good bet.

Reprobate?

isam · 4:33PM

eek said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Well.

Pakistan cricketers are not being considered by Indian-owned sides for next month's Hundred auction, sources have told BBC Sport.

Players from Pakistan have not featured in the Indian Premier League (IPL) since 2009 because of diplomatic tensions between the two countries.

Four of The Hundred's eight franchises - Manchester Super Giants, MI London, Southern Brave and Sunrisers Leeds - are now at least part-owned by companies that control IPL teams.

In messages seen by the BBC, a senior official from the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) indicated to an agent that interest in his Pakistan players would be limited to sides not linked to the IPL.

Another agent described the situation as "an unwritten rule" across T20 leagues with Indian investment.

ECB chief executive Richard Gould said last year he expected "players from all nations to be selected for all teams" in The Hundred and warned "clear anti-discrimination policies" were in place.

None of the four teams or ownership groups in question responded to requests for comment.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cx2gnv5w091o
I heard Nasser Husain talking about this on the Sky Sports Cricket pod. He was saying how disgraceful it was that Pakistani players weren't allowed to play for Indian franchises, and that he hoped that wouldn't be the case in the Hundred now that Indian Consortiums have bought some sides. The rules quoted, that no players were banned from playing for any team, didn't seem convincing to me.

Unless the rules require teams to employ Pakistan cricketers you can simply decide not to employ them...

Yes, of course. I would be amazed if they did

Malmesbury · 4:33PM

wooliedyed said:

Stark_Dawning said:

wooliedyed said:
Restore pick up a further 2 direct Reform defectors on Warwickshire council
Wow. I thought Restore were merely a fringe outfit and completely non-serious. Why are they starting to cause problems for Reform? Does Nigel need to take action here? How likely that a trickle becomes a flood?
13 so far. Announcement every day since launch.
I think Reform do have a (limited so far) problem
Some chatter that this may cost Reform control of one or more of their county councils.......

Radicalisation spiral.

According to a friend who fell down the Reform rabbit hole, Farage is a sell out. And was saying that a while back.

Battlebus · 4:34PM

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Interesting

https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/reform-uk-suspends-by-election-campaign-activist-over-antisemitic-and-misogynistic-posts/

This is probably why Reform won't win G&D. Their ground game is s**t. You would have thought that sending someone who is antisemitic to the Manchester area would be a fail. Double that for the recent deaths there. They're running out of road and Nigel's media supporters are going to find it difficult to continue the pantomime.

isam · 4:37PM

👀 Robert Jenrick texted a copy of his speech on the economy to George Osborne after he gave it yesterday, the former chancellor reveals on @polcurrency.

Reform’s new Treasury spokesperson said he hopes Osborne will “approve” of it.

Jenrick wrote in full: “George, trust you’re well. Here’s a copy of a speech I gave today on the economy.

“It commits to the OBR and to fiscal responsibility, which I hope you will approve of.”

Osborne responded on his podcast: “I say yes, I do. Although I’m not sure I approve of much else in the Reform programme.”

https://x.com/realbenbloch/status/2024478285044789453?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Big_G_NorthWales · 4:37PM

Battlebus said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Interesting

https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/reform-uk-suspends-by-election-campaign-activist-over-antisemitic-and-misogynistic-posts/
This is probably why Reform won't win G&D. Their ground game is s**t. You would have thought that sending someone who is antisemitic to the Manchester area would be a fail. Double that for the recent deaths there. They're running out of road and Nigel's media supporters are going to find it difficult to continue the pantomime.

With Andy Burnham actively supporting the canvassers I would not be surprised if labour held it

turbotubbs · 4:38PM

eek said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Well.

Pakistan cricketers are not being considered by Indian-owned sides for next month's Hundred auction, sources have told BBC Sport.

Players from Pakistan have not featured in the Indian Premier League (IPL) since 2009 because of diplomatic tensions between the two countries.

Four of The Hundred's eight franchises - Manchester Super Giants, MI London, Southern Brave and Sunrisers Leeds - are now at least part-owned by companies that control IPL teams.

In messages seen by the BBC, a senior official from the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) indicated to an agent that interest in his Pakistan players would be limited to sides not linked to the IPL.

Another agent described the situation as "an unwritten rule" across T20 leagues with Indian investment.

ECB chief executive Richard Gould said last year he expected "players from all nations to be selected for all teams" in The Hundred and warned "clear anti-discrimination policies" were in place.

None of the four teams or ownership groups in question responded to requests for comment.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cx2gnv5w091o
I heard Nasser Husain talking about this on the Sky Sports Cricket pod. He was saying how disgraceful it was that Pakistani players weren't allowed to play for Indian franchises, and that he hoped that wouldn't be the case in the Hundred now that Indian Consortiums have bought some sides. The rules quoted, that no players were banned from playing for any team, didn't seem convincing to me.

Unless the rules require teams to employ Pakistan cricketers you can simply decide not to employ them...

See also women 'who might have a baby in the next few years'

wooliedyed · 4:39PM

isam said:
👀 Robert Jenrick texted a copy of his speech on the economy to George Osborne after he gave it yesterday, the former chancellor reveals on @polcurrency.

Reform’s new Treasury spokesperson said he hopes Osborne will “approve” of it.

Jenrick wrote in full: “George, trust you’re well. Here’s a copy of a speech I gave today on the economy.

“It commits to the OBR and to fiscal responsibility, which I hope you will approve of.”

Osborne responded on his podcast: “I say yes, I do. Although I’m not sure I approve of much else in the Reform programme.”

https://x.com/realbenbloch/status/2024478285044789453?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Has George put it on the fridge so everyone can see what a clever little boy Rob is?

wooliedyed · 4:44PM

Find OutNow

Ref 28 (-1)
Grn 18 (=)
Con 16 (-3)
Lab 16 (=)
LD 10 (-1)
Others 7 (+3)

Stark_Dawning · 4:44PM

isam said:
👀 Robert Jenrick texted a copy of his speech on the economy to George Osborne after he gave it yesterday, the former chancellor reveals on @polcurrency.

Reform’s new Treasury spokesperson said he hopes Osborne will “approve” of it.

Jenrick wrote in full: “George, trust you’re well. Here’s a copy of a speech I gave today on the economy.

“It commits to the OBR and to fiscal responsibility, which I hope you will approve of.”

Osborne responded on his podcast: “I say yes, I do. Although I’m not sure I approve of much else in the Reform programme.”

https://x.com/realbenbloch/status/2024478285044789453?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

I take it this happened before Jenrick's defection, otherwise the implications are too mind blowing for words.

Stuartinromford · 4:47PM

wooliedyed said:
Find OutNow

Ref 28 (-1)
Grn 18 (=)
Con 16 (-3)
Lab 16 (=)
LD 10 (-1)
Others 7 (+3)

Ooh. Is that +3 in the "others" column the first hint of Rupertmania?

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:47PM

wooliedyed said:
Find OutNow

Ref 28 (-1)
Grn 18 (=)
Con 16 (-3)
Lab 16 (=)
LD 10 (-1)
Others 7 (+3)

Broken, sleazy Reform and LibDems on the slide.

Find Outliers Now.

£12 million pounds well spent – politicalbetting.com

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